The impact of China's foreign trade on their Actual-Open Emissions of CO₂ in the years 2000-2020 in the context of EU energy policy

Fortuński, Bartosz Article The impact of China's foreign trade on their Actual-Open Emissions of CO₂ in the years 2000-2020 in the context of EU energy policy The Central European Review of Economics and Management (CEREM) Provided in Cooperation with: WSB Merito University in Wrocław Suggested Citation: Fortuński, Bartosz (2024) : The impact of China's foreign trade on their ActualOpen Emissions of CO₂ in the years 2000-2020 in the context of EU energy policy, The Central European Review of Economics and Management (CEREM), ISSN 2544-0365, WSB Merito University in Wrocław, Wrocław, Vol. 8, Iss. 4, pp. 75-96, https://doi.org/10.29015/cerem.992 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/312544 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ CENTRAL EUROPEAN REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT ISSN 2543-9472; eISSN 2544-0365 www.cerem-review.eu www.ojs.wsb.wroclaw.pl Vol. 8, No.4, December 2024, 75-96 Correspondence address: Bartosz FORTUŃSKI, Opole University, Faculty of Economics, ul. Ozimska 46a, 45-058 Opole, Poland. E-mail: [email protected]. © 2024 WSB MERITO UNIVERSITY WROCŁAW The impact of China’s foreign trade on their ActualOpen Emissions of CO2 in the years 2000–2020 in the context of EU energy policy Bartosz FORTUŃSKI Opole University, Poland Received: 09.04.2024, Revised: 29.10.2024, Accepted: 01.12.2024 doi: http://10.29015/cerem.992 Aim: This article aims to analyze the impact of China’s trade with 78 major trading partners on ActualOpen Emission of CO2 (EAO) from 2000 to 2020 in light of the European Union's (EU) goal to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. Research Methods: The research is based on the Actual-Open Emission of CO2 model and employs the circular flow model to assess the influence of China's foreign trade on CO2 emissions during the years 2000–2020. Findings: The study revealed that China’s foreign trade significantly influenced its CO2 emissions in all years analyzed, with positive contributions to EAO due to a trade surplus (exports exceeding imports). As the world’s largest exporter and the second-largest importer, China’s trade activity resulted in substantial CO2 emissions. Four key indicators were identified as influencing the difference between Official-Close Emission of CO2 (EOC) and EAO: China’s GDP, the percentage of exported GDP, the percentage of imported GDP, and EOC levels. These findings highlight the significant role of trade in China’s CO2 emissions, which is critical in the context of EU initiatives like “Fit for 55.” Keywords: International trade, China, CO2 emissions, EU energy policy. JEL: F18, Q54, Q56, Bartosz FORTUŃSKI 76 1. Introduction The second biggest economy in the world in the years 2000–2020 was China (worlddata.info). They were in first place in terms of GDP PPP from the year 2014 (Gentle 2016: 87). From 2000 to 2020, China was among the three countries with the world’s most prominent export and importers (unctad.org; wits.worldbank.org). China’s trade significantly impacted the natural environment, including CO2 emissions. The considerations contained in this study result from the energy policy implemented by the EU. One of its basic assumptions in 2007–2020 was the rule – 3 times 20%. EU policy and its energy policy directly refer to sustainable development (SD). Gro Harlem Brundtland proposes the basic definition of SD presented in the report “Our Common Future.” SD is defined here as: “meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” (Czaja, Becla 2002: 308–309; Górka et al. 1995: 78; Rao 2000: 85; Adamczyk 2001: 28–29). We live in a global world, and therefore, the activities of particular countries have a direct or indirect impact on others. Nevertheless, it does not mean that all countries function in the same way and follow the same rules. Some countries contribute significantly to reducing global CO2 emissions, bearing high costs compared to others; nonetheless, it does not bring the intended effects of an absolute reduction of CO2 emissions. This study confirms the issue, especially regarding China’s trade with 78 countries. The struggle of the EU with the issue of CO2 emissions does not affect China with this problem. This study will show that China had, between 2000 and 2020, an impact on world CO2 emissions lower than officially shown because they export more CO2 than imported. By this example, it will also be shown that CO2 emissions are a global problem, and the struggle of several countries does not change much in the universal aspect. Fundamental questions are as follows. How significant influence did China trade on CO2 emission globally? What should the EU do to make its energy policy more efficient? Should not all countries be involved in efforts to reduce CO2 emissions? Should solutions be undertaken to encourage other countries to take a similar approach to the CO2 THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE ON THEIR ACTUAL-OPEN …. 77 issue? Should the European Union change its approach regarding CO2 reduction and take international exchange into account? This new approach should help to answer these questions. China is one of the world leaders in terms of the value of CO2 emissions and international exchange. According to the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) (The Observatory), it is the world’s second-largest importer and exporter and one of the most complex economies. The primary purpose of this paper is to show the impact of foreign trade on Actual-Open Emissions of CO2 (EAO) in China after considering trade with the 78 countries. It is not about the value of Official-Close Emission of CO2 (EOC) emissions but about its accurate volume in regard to the CO2 transfer both in export and import products. There should also be services that should have been considered in this research. The survey is based on a circular economic flow model principle that shows money flows through the economy. There are two kinds of this model. Closed – inside the country, and Open – including export and import factors. The same refers to the open and closed economy. The Official-Close Emission of CO2 is similar to the close circular flow model concept. Is it the right approach to this problem? It seems not to be. We live in a global world where international trade is one of the economy’s most important and influential factors. This factor greatly influences CO2 emission because producing goods and services accompanies CO2 emission. 2. Methods From 2007, the EU energy policy was created by rules, mechanisms, and economic and financial instruments (Komunikat UE KOM (2007) 1, Dyrektywa 96/61/WE, Dyrektywa 2001/80/WE, Dyrektywa 2003/87/WE, Dyrektywa 2006/32/WE, Dyrektywa 2009/28/WE, Komunikat UE KOM (2010) 639, Komunikat UE KOM (2008) 781, Komunikat UE KOM (2008) 772, Komunikat UE KOM (2006) 105, Komunikat UE KOM (2008) 13, Komunikat UE KOM (2008) 768). It outlines the basic directions for developing the EU energy sector (Jeżowski 2011). Energy policy came into force in the EU in 2007. The European energy policy aimed to Bartosz FORTUŃSKI 78 achieve 3 × 20% by 2020. It involves the reduction of CO2 emissions by 20% in 1990, increasing participation of renewable energy sources in the energy mix to 20%, and improving energy use efficiency by 20% compared to 1990. It should also be emphasized that the indicated aims are interconnected. The last two goals significantly influence the reduction of CO2 emissions, which in turn impacts the changes in other objectives of the EU energy policy. The Actual-Open Emission of CO2 was determined as the CO2 emissions of a particular country. It is diminished by emissions in exported goods and services of the country and magnified by emissions imported in products and services from the importing country. It means that the emissions balance of CO2 should decrease Actual-Open Emissions of CO2. The following formulas present a method used to calculate Actual-Open Emissions of CO2 for the China: 𝑆𝐵= ( 𝐼𝑚 𝐺𝐷𝑃)%×𝐸𝑂𝐶𝐶 −( 𝐸𝑥 𝐺𝐷𝑃)%×𝐸𝑂𝐶 (1) 𝑬𝑨𝑶 = 𝑬𝑶𝑪 +𝑺𝑩 (2) SB – The balance of CO2 emissions in the selected country; EOC – The Official-Closed Emissions of CO2 in China; EOCC – Official-Closed Emission of CO2 in selected country; Ex – Value of the China export to selected country; Im –Value of the China import from a particular country; GDP – The gross domestic product of a selected country; (Im/GDP)% – part of the GDP of a specific country from with the China imported; (Ex/GDP)% – part of China’s GDP which was exported to a particular country; (Im/GDP)%*EOCC – Quantity of imported CO2 in goods from a specific country to China; (Ex/GDP)%*EOC – Quantity of exported CO2 from China to the particular state in exported goods; EAO – Actual-Open Emissions of CO2 in China. To show the EAO in a specific country, we need the data of all China trade partners. In this survey, we have 78 main trade partners of China divided into five continents: Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and South America (table 1). Africa is represented by four countries, Asia by 29 countries, and Europe by 33 countries. Four countries represent North America, Oceania 2, and South America by seven countries. These countries and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world. THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE ON THEIR ACTUAL-OPEN …. 79 They were responsible for 96–97% of the world’s CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2020. Due to the multitude of data, the research results in this study will be limited to individual continents, with an indication of the countries that had the most significant impact on CO2 exchange. Table 1. Countries participating in the study are divided into individual continents Continent Country Continent Country Continent Country Africa Algeria Asia Singapore Europe Lithuania Africa Egypt Asia Thailand Europe Luxembourg Africa Morocco Asia Turkmenistan Europe Latvia Africa South Africa Asia Turkey Europe North Macedonia Asia United Arab Emirates Asia Uzbekistan Europe Netherlands Asia Azerbaijan Asia Vietnam Europe Norway Asia Bangladesh Asia Chinese Taipei Europe Poland Asia China Europe Austria Europe Portugal Asia Cyprus Europe Belgium Europe Romania Asia Hong Kong Europe Bulgaria Europe Russia Asia Indonesia Europe Belarus Europe Slovakia Asia India Europe Switzerland Europe Slovenia Asia Iran Europe Czechia Europe Sweden Asia Iraq Europe Germany Europe Ukraine Asia Israel Europe Denmark North America Canada Asia Japan Europe Spain North America Mexico Asia Kazakhstan Europe Estonia North America Trinidad and Tobago Asia South Korea Europe Finland North America United States (US) Asia Kuwait Europe France Oceania Australia Asia Sri Lanka Europe United Kingdom Oceania New Zealand Asia Malaysia Europe Greece South America Argentina Asia Oman Europe Croatia South America Brazil Asia Pakistan Europe Hungary South America Chile Asia Philippines Europe Ireland South America Colombia Asia Qatar Europe Iceland South America Ecuador Asia Saudi Arabia Europe Italy South America Peru South America Venezuela Source: own elaboration. Bartosz FORTUŃSKI 80 3. Trade between China and 78 countries from 2000 to 2020 China is the second biggest economy in the world. Total exports of China in years had a grooving trend until 2008, 2009–2014, 2016–2018, and 2019–2020 (figure 1 and figure 2). The declines in total China exports in a survey time were in the years 2009, 2015–2016, and 2019. China’s total exports reached 319,71 billion (B) USD in 2000, up to 2491,05 B USD in 2020. It increased almost eight times in the twenty-one years considered in this survey, and by 21 years considered in this survey, China exported a total of 78 countries, 32,35 trillion USD. Between 2000 and 2020, China’s exports to Asia countries achieved value from 156 B of USD in 2000 to 1168 B of USD in 2020. In the case of North American countries, China’s exports were between 81 B of USD in 2000 and 615 B of USD in 2018. In survey time, China’s exports to Europe reached 69 B USD in 2000 and 586 B in 2020. In 2007–2010 and 2019–2020, China’s exports to European countries exceeded North American countries. Between 2000 and 2020, China’s exports to South America achieved a value of 4 B USD in 2000 and 93 B USD in 2013. From 2000 to 2020, China’s exports to Oceania have yet to reach 65 B USD; they level 43 B USD to Africa. Figure 1. China exports to Asia, Europa and North America in the years 2000–2020 in USD billion Source: own study based on The Observatory of Economic Complexity. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Asia Europe North America THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE ON THEIR ACTUAL-OPEN …. 81 China’s exports to Asia in 2000–2020 constituted between 42.8% (2007) – and 49% (2000) of total China exports, to North America 21.8% (2011) and 27.1% (2002); in the case of Europa, it was 20.5% (2015) and 27.5% (2008). In South America, China exported 1.2% (2002) and 4.4% (2012, 2013) of total their exports. Oceania reached a level of 2.6% and Africa 1.8%. It shows that in international trade, contacts with Asia, North America, and Europe are the most important partners for China. Figure 2. China exports to Africa, Oceania and South America in years 2000–2020 in USD billion Source: own study based on The Observatory of Economic Complexity. China’s total imports grew in 2000–2008, 2009–2013, and 2016–2018 (figure 3). In the remaining years, the total China imports declined, according to a survey. China’s imports reached 160 B USD (2000) to 1499 B USD (2018). It increased almost ten times over the 21 years of the studied period. Between 2000 and 2020, China’s imports from Asia increased from 99.9 B USD in 2000 to 778 B USD in 2018. In the case of European countries, the value of China’s imports was between 32 B of USD in 2000 and 335 B of USD in 2018. In survey time, China’s imports from North American countries achieved a value of 19 B of USD in 2000 and 1534 B in 2017. Between 2000 and 2020, China’s imports from South America reached 3.6 B USD in 2000 and 119 B USD in 2020. China imports from 2000–2020 from Oceania achieved a value of 4.2 B USD in 2000 and 121 B USD in 2029. China’s imports from African countries never reached 28 B USD. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Africa Oceania South America Bartosz FORTUŃSKI 82 Figure 3. China imports from six continents represented by 78 countries in USD billions in 2000–2020 Source: own study based on The Observatory of Economic Complexity. China imports from the Asian countries in 2000–2020 constituted 63.8% (2005) – 51% (2019 and 2020) of the total China imports. Imports to China from European countries in the survey period were between 17.6% in 2005 and 22.5% in 2019; in the case of North American countries, it was 13.3% (2001) and 8.1% (2019). From South American countries, it was between 2.2% (2000) and 8.1% (2020) of total China imports. China imports from Australia and New Zealand in 2000–2020 constituted 2.4% (2001) – 8.2 (2019) of the total China imports. Africa never reached a level higher than 2.5%. It shows that China’s contacts with Asia, North America, and Europe are the most critical partners in imports, similar to China’s exports. From 2000 to 2020, the value of China’s imports from Europe fluctuated, but it was generally upward. This time, China had a positive balance in international trade with all European continents except the Island, Germany, and Switzerland. It means that they imported less from them than they exported to them. It means that China is a vital partner for almost all countries because they are massive international suppliers. It shows that in global trade, China was an essential partner for European countries, especially European Union countries. The EU can influence China’s CO2 emission policy to be more restrictive. It can be easier to establish because the trade 0,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Africa Asia Europe North America Oceania South America THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE ON THEIR ACTUAL-OPEN …. 89 China in each survey year was lower than the their Official-Close Emission of CO2. The smallest spread between the two of them was in the year 2000, and it was 32.06% of China’s emission of CO2 from the year 1990. The highest spread between EOC and EAO in China was in 2007, 101.52%. The highest EAO in China was in 2020, which was 380.31% of CO2 from 1990. This data shows that China was a substantial net exporter of CO2 emissions in all survey years. 6. Discussion It is worth stressing that the EU’s actions in implementing the EU energy policy are limited only to the EU area. Between 2000 and 2020, China, in all survey years, had a positive trade balance with African, Asian, European, EU, and North American countries. With Oceanian countries, China had a positive trade balance from 2000 to 2008, and South American countries had a positive trade balance from 2000 to 2001. Throughout the review, the total China foreign trade balance considering five continents was negative in Oceania – 2009–2020 and South America – 2002–2020. The total China balance by 21 years of the survey was 13533 B USD. By those 21 years, the total positive China trade balance was Asia (4478 B of USD), Europe (3716 B of USD), North America (5560 B of USD), and Africa (294 B of USD). The only continents with which China had a negative trade balance from 2000 to 2020 were Oceania, which was -390 B of USD, and South America’s -126 B of USD. China’s trade balance had a tremendous impact on EAO in all of the 78 countries that participated in the research. What does influence on value of EAO? It is Official-Close Emission of CO2 of a particular country, the % of GDP exported goods from the China. It must be considered also the % of GDP of countries from which the China imported goods. This directly results in China’s enormous influence on CO2 emissions in other countries. EU is the world leader in CO2 reduction. One of its tolls is the EU energy policy. What can/should the EU do to make other countries do more to reduce CO2 emissions? What are the challenges that the EU faces? There are two possibilities. One is doing nothing, living it without changes. The EU will be content with its energy policy, with Bartosz FORTUŃSKI 90 a reduction of CO2 emissions inside the EU. However, it will change nothing. The EU will still import CO2 from outside the EU through products and services and continue contributing to CO2 emissions outside the EU. The second option is to change its approach to the energy policy to be more global. The EU should take into account the CO2 emissions that are imported into the EU. The EU should consider some instruments that encourage countries outside the EU to do similar activities to reduce CO2 emissions. For example, ecological taxes (Fortuński 2012–2023; Bogrocz 2008; Graczyk, Jakubczyk 2005; Kaczmarski 2010; Kryk 2012a, 2012b). The EAO also indicates the ineffectiveness of international agreements in reducing emissions of CO2, such as the Kyoto Agreement. The main challenges in the case of the second solution are retaliation activity undertaken by the countries from which the EU imports and on each of these “ecological taxes” or other instruments would be imposed. This will, among others, include transaction costs. The other challenge will be how to promote the reduction of CO2 emissions in countries outside the EU. Because China, as we saw in previous data, imports from European countries are much smaller than China’s exports to those countries, it will be easier for the EU to decrease China’s CO2 emissions. This is because China is more interested in not losing the EU as a destination for export – it would be more costly for China than for the EU to establish a new form of CO2 tax. The appropriate would be tariffs on all kinds of products and services imported from China to the EU. Such a tariff from the EU would likely trigger a counteraction from China in the form of tariffs on products from the EU. Another problem is determining the reference period to which the volume of CO2 emissions in China should be referred. Setting this to 1990 seems unrealistic. In this context, it should be noted that China’s official CO2 emissions increased throughout the period under review. The same applies to the reduction in CO2 emissions. In the fit for 55 documents, there is talk of a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990) and achieving climate neutrality by 2050. About China, there is no mention of any reduction in emissions, whether compared to 1990, 2000, or even 2010. it also seems that not addressing the issue of the export and import of CO2 emissions and its limitation by the EU on non-EU countries is deceiving EU citizens. The EU spends vast amounts of money on climate THE IMPACT OF CHINA’S FOREIGN TRADE ON THEIR ACTUAL-OPEN …. 91 transformation. People bear the costs associated with this daily in the form of higher electricity bills and loss of jobs in emission sectors. Other countries outside the EU do not bear such expenses, which is unfair. Another problem is that the EU is responsible for a small percentage of global CO2 emissions – about 8%. This means that if the EU does not engage other countries in similar actions, particularly the largest CO2 emitters, which are also its largest trading partners, climate protection actions will not bring benefits at the global level. 7 Summary The European Union is regarded as the leader in the fight against global warming, a battle for clean energy, and a reduction of CO2 emissions. Unfortunately, its actions are isolated, which leads to the situation that even such a large economy as the EU, which is strongly economically related to other countries through trade, can only change a little within this issue. The EU and China are leaders in world trade. The EU could use its position in international trade to achieve its own energy policy goals – reducing CO2 emissions. Trade relates to a balance of CO2 hidden in goods imported to and exported from China. It affects the EAO in all 78 countries from this survey. The impact of China’s international trade was very high, and for most of the years, continents negatively impacted other countries. This means that China mainly exported CO2 to those countries. It was also the case for UE countries. The impact of the trade on CO2 emission was huge because of the substantial international trade in goods and services between China and the EU. The effectiveness of its members implementing the EU energy policy is limited only to the EU’s territory. It can result in the EU energy policy not being regarded as a SD policy and being related to high costs. If the EU is interested in reducing CO2 emissions, it must consider it. Because of those high costs, EU countries try to reduce them by importing parts, components, and products from cheaper countries, which very often have higher emissions of CO2. It is usually because, in those countries, environmental law is more relaxed than in the EU. Bartosz FORTUŃSKI 92 This situation brings some challenges ahead of the EU, especially in their energy policy in the CO2 aspect. The survey has shown that the EU should consider changes in its energy policy. This policy should take into account an element of CO2 emission more globally. The results of the research indicate that CO2 emission is a global problem. It requires the EU to consider introducing a new instrument that would incentivize countries outside the EU to take effective action to reduce CO2 emissions. A new instrument, an eco-energy tax, could be introduced for that purpose. The EU would apply it to all trade partners, individual countries, or groups of countries. Additionally, this tax would concern the volume of particular countries exporting to the EU (Bielecki et al. 2016: 43–46). Fortunately, EU will have some new carbon tax shortly (Salzman 2023; Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). Unfortunately, this kind of action could bring contractions. 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