The cobra effect in TVET policy making: A macro-micro-macro-level analysis of exemplary cases From Germany

Schmees, Johannes Karl; Grunau, Janika Article The cobra effect in TVET policy making: A macro-micromacro-level analysis of exemplary cases From Germany International Journal for Research in Vocational Education and Training (IJRVET) Provided in Cooperation with: European Research Network in Vocational Education and Training (VETNET), European Educational Research Association Suggested Citation: Schmees, Johannes Karl; Grunau, Janika (2025) : The cobra effect in TVET policy making: A macro-micro-macro-level analysis of exemplary cases From Germany, International Journal for Research in Vocational Education and Training (IJRVET), ISSN 2197-8646, European Research Network in Vocational Education and Training (VETNET), European Educational Research Association, Bremen, Vol. 12, Iss. 2, pp. 174-191, https://doi.org/10.13152/IJRVET.12.2.2 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/331542 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ International Journal for Research in Vocational Education and Training (IJRVET) 2025, Vol. 12, Issue 2, 174–191 https://doi.org/10.13152/IJRVET.12.2.2 ISSN: 2197-8646 https://www.ijrvet.net The Cobra Effect in TVET Policy Making: A Macro-Micro-Macro-Level Analysis of Exemplary Cases From Germany Johannes K. Schmees1*, Janika Grunau2 1University of Derby, College of Arts, Humanities and Education, Institute of Education, Technical and Vocational Education and Training Research Cluster, Kedleston Road, Derby, DE22 1GB, United Kingdom 2Osnabrück University, School of Educational and Cultural Studies, Institue of Education, Department of Vocational Education Studies, Katharinenstraße 24, 49078 Osnabrück, Germany Received: 04 June 2024, Accepted: 22 October 2024 Abstract Context: Unlike education policy for general education, technical and vocational education and training (TVET) policy often focuses on societal needs, ignoring the attitudes and subsequent behaviors of learners. As a result, the impact of TVET policies is not what was expected and sometimes even counterproductive. Starting from this, we use macro-micromacro-level analysis inspired by Coleman's boat theorem to reflect on three exemplary cases of German TVET policy. These TVET policies have in common that they aim to reduce skills shortages in certain occupations. Approach: Our paper illustrates the value of macro-micro-macro-level analysis when looking at TVET policies and programs. To this end, we look at three exemplary cases. All the cases represent TVET policies and programs aimed at reducing skills shortages, a common issue for most countries in the world. One way of addressing those shortages are TVET policies of which we present here: (1) Increasing the permeability between TVET and higher education, (2) attracting workers for post-qualification and (3) directed career counselling for refugees. Using Coleman's boat theorem, we analyze the cases in terms of whether *Corresponding author: [email protected] 175 Schmees, Grunau the policy strategies address the skills shortage adequately. We then compare the cases with each other to draw general conclusions regarding the connection of macroand micro-level within policy making in TVET. Findings: A common finding among all three case studies is that the investigated policies and programs do not consider possible deviant considerations of actors at the micro-level adequately. Consequently, the actor's behaviors on the micro-level can contradict the intention of the policy. Conclusion: We conclude that it is essential to take micro-level perspectives into account when developing political strategies for TVET. Therefore, TVET policies and programs should be developed from a more subject-oriented perspective and as a second step include societal needs. Furthermore, TVET policies and programs have to be accomplished by reforms changing work conditions for the better. Only then, there is a chance for convergence of micro-level decisions and macro-level outcomes. Keywords: Skills Shortage, Technical and Vocational Education and Training, TVET, Technical and Vocational Education and Training Policy, Case Study, Coleman's Boat 1 TheMissingLinkortheCobraEffect The German economist Horst Siebert introduced the so-called cobra effect as an anecdotal illustration of side effects of public policies: Set in India under British rule, the British government introduced a lump sum for every cobra head turned-in as to fight the cobra plague in old Delhi. As result, cobras were bred to benefit from the lump sum. When the policy was withdrawn, all the then bred cobras were set free leading to the highest ever number of cobras in and around Delhi (cf. Siebert, 2001). This rather anecdotal evidence, in its core, illustrates a missing link between the policy and its intentions on the macro-level and the actual behaviors of people on the micro-level. While this phenomenon is not new it has so far not been discussed in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) policy – we will do so by using Coleman's (2000) model of macro-micro-macro-level relations. As an exemplary case, we analyze recent German TVET policies addressing skills shortages. In particular, the craft and healthcare sectors are concerned with a lack of qualified workers (BMWI, 2021): In crafts, there were 60,000 vacant positions in 2020 – an increase of 50% since 2010 (KOFA, 2021). Regarding nursing, it is assumed that more than 100,000 full-time equivalents will be required to cover the care supply in 2030 (Rothgang et al., 2020; Schwinger et al., 2019). Besides other strategies, also TVET policies and programs were implemented to close those gaps, for example, by (1) increasing the permeability between TVET and higher education (see also Schmees & Grunau, 2020), (2) attracting workers for 176 Cobra Effect in TVET Policy Making post-qualification, or (3) recruiting people via directed career counselling for refugees. Our analysis reveals that the individuals on the micro-level behave differently than assumed. Accordingly, this study finds that the expected effect of reducing skills shortage is not achieved in any of the three case studies. In the following section, the underlying theory is presented alongside some methodological remarks. Afterwards, the case studies are presented. Finally, we aggregate our findings and suggest an adapted version of Coleman's model that, in our view, is particularly suited for TVET research. 2 Coleman'sBoat:TheoryandMethodology Coleman's boat model contributes to explain an effect on the macro-level by a cause on the micro-level. Therefore, it is suitable to deal with a fundamental question of the social sciences: The relationship between society and its agents. The boat model, which Coleman himself calls 'meta theory' implies three propositions. First, in order to explain the cause and effect on the macro-level, the macro-level cause impacts the dispositions of micro-level agents. The second proposition is entirely located on the micro-level and connects the micro-level agent's disposition with their action. Third, the individual micro-level action is reconnected to the macro-level. The proposition here is that the aggregated action of all the agents on the microlevel leads to the macro-level effect (Fig. 1; Coleman, 2000). Figure 1: The Macro-Micro-Macro Analysis According to Coleman's Boat (adapted from Coleman, 2000) As a meta-analysis, the three propositions within the boat model must be further en-riched by action theories (Coleman, 2000). However, the boat model can also clarify the necessary steps that must be valid so that a given assumption is true. Coleman himself used the boat model to reflect upon Weber's claim that Calvinism was responsible for the emergence of capitalism (Coleman, 2000). In his further thoughts on the boat model, Ylikoski (2016) suggests using it 177 Schmees, Grunau as a heuristic in order to point out crucial elements, articulating the structural assumptions of explanations or accounting for the explanatory tasks of social sciences. Therefore, in our paper, Coleman's boat functions as a tool for critically assessing implicit assumptions made by policy actors in Germany regarding the reduction of skill shortage. The model serves as a tool to examine if causal connections on the macro-level in TVET policymaking can be substantiated through our analysis, which incorporates the micro-level. As for the case of TVET, it is worth mentioning that Coleman himself applied the boat model to a TVET policy aiming to reduce black youth unemployment in the United States (Coleman, 1987, 2000). Our case studies are based on three previously published qualitative research studies, (1) on academic orientation (Grunau, 2017), (2) further qualification in the care sector (Grunau & Sachse, 2020), and (3) the integration of refugees into the job market (Migura & Schmees, 2023; for a more comprehensive analysis, see Wehking, 2020). For the paper, we conducted a secondary analysis of these studies by re-interpreting the studies according to the methodology of the boat model. The analyses are based on qualitative data from the authors' reference projects and therefore exploratory in nature. All three cases are based on interview surveys with biographical-narrative components. In addition to narratives and reflections on the past and present, future developments were also anticipated. As for the analyses, the three propositions were spelled out for each case. For the macro-level assumptions about the causality between TVET reforms and their assumed impact to be true, all three propositions must prove to be accurate. The three propositions are then subject to a critical examination by questioning the homogeneity of the group of agents, which are subsequently divided into empirically based types. To generate the types for each case, we used the original studies and in addition supporting literature. The analyses of these types of agents are then used to question the given policy's expected macro-level effect. Therefore, agents' mindsets and goals are discussed, with a given policy's projected outcome compared to our analysis. 3 CaseStudies This section presents three case studies according to the same structure: After presenting background information, we develop a conception of each case's actors on the micro-level. Finally, we present findings that indicate a discrepancy between the expected effect of the TVET program or policy and the outcome according to our analysis. 178 Cobra Effect in TVET Policy Making 3.1 PermeabilityBetweenVocationalandHigherEducation1 In 2014, Julian Nida-Rümelin warned against an 'academization mania' in Germany. This conclusion was based on an analysis that, on the one hand, emphasized the economic necessity of a functioning TVET system and, on the other hand, rationalized a decision for TVET: Instead of choosing the congested academic path, it would be advisable for adolescents and young adults to opt for TVET, also from a financial point of view (Nida-Rümelin, 2014). Despite these and other warnings, the attractiveness of higher education persists (Autorengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung, 2018). Developments in Germany can thus be observed globally as part of a phenomenon referred to as 'massification of higher education' (Altbach, 2017, p. 1) or 'universalization of higher education' (Trow, 2007). Even if the absolute number of students remains identical (for demographic reasons), there is much to suggest that the ratio of students in higher education will continue to rise in Germany (Euler, 2017). Against this background, the attractiveness of TVET is subject of discussion among politicians and scientists, and possibilities for increasing its attractiveness are central within these discussions. Examples of this attention include the 'Year of Vocational Education and Training' as a public event, the restructuring of training due to new requirements, as well as the increase in training allowances. Furthermore, the upgrading of TVET through increased access to higher education is discussed in the context of increasing attractiveness (e.g., BIBB, 2014). It is implicitly assumed that formally 'upgrading' TVET qualifications by granting higher education access options increases the attractiveness of TVET for teenagers and young adults, as such a shift would open up for more opportunities in the future. As consequence, more teenagers and young adults would pursue a TVET qualification, which would in turn increase the number of apprentices and subsequently the number of professionals in each field. This supposedly causal relationship can be illustrated with the help of a macro-micromacro relationship, which aims to explain a macro-level relationship through the behaviors of individual agents at the micro-level (Fig. 2). 1 This case study was published before in German for a short journal article (Schmees & Grunau, 2020). For this paper, the case has been extended and translated. 179 Schmees, Grunau Figure 2: Assumed Consequences of a Formal Upgrading of TVET Qualifications (based on Coleman, 2000; also used in Schmees & Grunau, 2020) In line with the original analysis, we argue for a differentiated consideration, both with regard to the so-called context hypothesis (according to which a formal upgrading of TVET qualifications would lead to an increase in attractiveness at the agents' level) and with regard to the so-called aggregation rule (according to which a decision in favor of training due to its permeability would lead to more skilled workers to cover the demand). This assumption will be tested in the next section. Typification: Three Types of Academically Oriented Apprentices In order to differentiate the agents, we rely on the results of a study in which advanced students were asked about their educational paths and decisions in narrative interviews (Grunau, 2017). All the interviewees had completed a TVET qualification before taking up their studies. The source material comprises N = 15 interviews, which were reanalyzed for this paper. Regarding the question of whether the permeability between TVET and academic education contributes to increasing the attractiveness of TVET, two types of students could be reconstructed as highlighted in previous studies: An academically oriented type and a vocationally oriented type (see also Grunau, 2017). In addition, there is a third type, who represent a mixture of the earlier two types (Schmeiser, 2003). The first type (Type I) shows a fundamentally academic orientation that originates in family and school socialization. The students come from academic or academically oriented family homes and usually acquire higher education entrance qualification on a linear path. The goal of pursuing an academic career is already determined before starting TVET. For this type of students, TVET fulfils the function of a preor interim program, for example to bridge semesters, waiting for a degree course to begin. Retrospectively, TVET is nevertheless usually seen as valuable, for example regarding practical experience and for the 'soft' fallback 180 Cobra Effect in TVET Policy Making option that an apprenticeship might offer. For students in this type, TVET initially serves a specific biographical purpose but adds no formal added value with regard to taking up a degree program which is the desired destination. Remaining in the trained occupation is, at best, an emergency option. In this case, the permeability between TVET and academic education does not in reality contribute to making TVET more attractive. For students in the second type (Type II), the educational-biographical orientation is more vocational-pragmatic. Here too, family and school socialization processes play a central role: The students usually come from non-academic but educationally ambitious families. Typically, they first complete TVET after graduating from secondary school. Only during their training or professional lives does the option of studying arise – more or less related to their specific situations. The access options via TVET to academic education become relevant in this case, but they are not a policy tool for increasing attractiveness: They did not choose TVET because it entails the option to study, but because it initially appeared to be the only viable path within their perceived horizons of possibility. Only later did the option of pursuing an academic career become realistic. For these two typical students with TVET, both those with a basic academic orientation and those with a basic vocational-pragmatic orientation, the option of transitioning to higher education plays no or only a subordinate role in promoting the attractiveness of TVET. But things are different for students in the third category (Type III): These are students who are socialized academically, but whose educational paths lead to TVET, for example by attending a secondary school and then pursuing TVET. This type is characterized by a sense of educational relative deprivation in their respective families – Schmeiser (2003) speaks in this context of 'wayward' sons and daughters. To compensate for this sense of decline, the options between TVET and academic education can increase the attractiveness of TVET, as this opens up perspectives of returning to the family's originally intended path, which can then be fulfilled in a second attempt. Even if the typification (Tab. 1 for an overview) may not cover every specific individual case, the following tendency can be shown: The option to transition between TVET and academic education only increases the attractiveness of TVET for a minority, at best. In our analysis of this case, this minority comprises Type III, students for whom an academic career was a prospect from the outset, but for whom TVET is initially more realizable due to their performance in school. Even if TVET entitles vocationally and pragmatically oriented students (Type II) to pursue higher education, the potential to transition between TVET and academic education does not have the effect of increasing the attractiveness of choosing TVET in the first place. 181 Schmees, Grunau Table 1: Typification of Case 1 (based on Schmees & Grunau, 2020) Type I Type II Type III Mindset (Modus Operandi) academic vocationalpragmatic mixed Permeability Needed no yes yes Rising Attractiveness for Entering TVET no no yes Macro-Level Effect maximum short-term skills gain none, long-term skills loss none Consequences: Continuing Skills Shortage After the context hypothesis (according to which a formal upgrading of TVET qualifications would lead to a general increase in attractiveness) was subjected to a differentiated analysis, the aggregation rule (according to which a resulting decision in favor of training would lead to more vocationally qualified skilled workers) can be falsified. Each of the three types could relate to permeability in different ways, none of which appear particularly beneficial for closing the skills gap. For students in Type I, for example, permeability would initially increase the number of trainees, but without increasing the number of vocationally qualified skilled workers in the medium to long run. Training would play a role primarily in terms of educational biographies and could not be fully utilized economically. For students in Type II, fundamentally vocationally oriented skilled workers could make use of the access options to higher education. This leads to a reduction in professionally qualified skilled workers who contribute to meeting the demand for skilled workers. Finally, for students in Type III, permeability would also not serve to meet the demand for skilled workers, since the 'return' to academic education aimed for from the beginning would thus appear feasible within the framework of the (increased) access options to higher education. In sum, permeability at least increases the potential for the migration of vocationally qualified skilled workers toward academic careers. It is, then, expressly not a way to increase the number of skilled workers. Thus, the connection from the micro to the macro-level is clearly a misconception. 3.2 ValidationandRecognitionforLow-QualifiedNursingAssistants Validation arrangements are born from the hope of increasing the visibility and recognition of informal learning. For the healthcare sector (and especially for geriatric nursing), validation arrangements are regarded as contributions to address the increasing skills shortage. In short, through validation arrangements, uncertificated workers' 'hidden' competencies can be made visible and usable for the labor market. In the projects Kompetenzbilanzierung für ältere Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer (skills assessment for older employees; KomBiA) and Validierungsverfahren und Nachqualifizierung in der Altenpflege (validation procedures 188 Cobra Effect in TVET Policy Making Figure 5: Macro-Micro-Macro 'Tent' (own creation) All in all, we conclude that it is essential to take micro-level perspectives, and especially the actors' options and rationale, into account when developing political strategies in TVET and their macro-level effects. The suggested macro-micro-macro 'tent' can be a tool analyze possible achievements when it comes to TVET policymaking and beyond. However, it can also be used as an instrument for policy planning where the individual mindsets (and therefore a more subject-oriented perspective) are seriously considered. Because apart from structural challenges, an educational perspective should also include the mindset of the individual learner as a resource for their future development, as opposed to something (or someone) that can be instrumentalized for a greater good. Societal needs must be considered as a second step to balance individual and societal perspectives. As a point of discussion, the apparent statics and linearity of the tent model remain. It should be considered that the labor market is dynamic, and decisions are subject to various, partly sociogenetic influences (e.g., gender, wages, social hierarchies). Like Coleman's boat, the tent model represents a complexity-reducing explanatory approach to the question of macroand micro-relations. Finally, societal problems cannot be solved by reforms of the education system alone (e.g., Gruschka, 2000) but have to be accompanied by comprehensive reforms. 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Thinking with the Coleman boat. Linköping University Electronic Press. BiographicalNotes Johannes Karl Schmees is an Associate Professor for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) at the Institute of Education, University of Derby, United Kingdom. His research interests are in international and comparative research on TVET systems. Thereby he is particularly interested in international and bilateral influences on the development of TVET structures. Janika Grunau is a Postdoctoral Researcher in technical and vocational education and training at the Department of Vocational Studies at Osnabrück University, Germany. In her research she focuses on health care professions, social inequality in academic and vocational education and qualitative designs. Her work has been published in peer-reviewed journals and editorial books.