Full text
RESEARCH BRIEF: Multi-hazards in Scandinavia: Impacts and risks from compound heatwaves, droughts and wildfires Gwendoline Ducros, Timothy Tiggeloven, Lin Ma, Anne Sophie Daloz, Nina Schuhen, Judith Claassen, and Marleen C. de Ruiter 18 December 2025
1 Title Multi-hazards in Scandinavia: Impacts and risks from compound heatwaves, droughts and wildfires Highlights ● Finding 1: The 2018 multi-hazard events in Scandinavia did not occur in isolation but were part of interconnected climatic conditions. ● Finding 2: The 2018 multi-hazard events resulted in a measurable economic loss across various sectors and regions. These events caused a 0.08% drop in Scandinavia’s GDP. Forestry suffered a 3.04% decline, with cascading effects on agriculture, electricity, and forestry exports. Forestry-related exports fell by 29.39%, influencing Europe’s overall trade balance. Recommendations ● Rather than treating heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires separately, decision makers should develop integrated frameworks and address the interactions and compound effects between single hazards. ● Improved forest management and better understanding of both direct and indirect societal impacts are essential for reducing risks from heat-related multi-hazards in vulnerable regions. Context In summer 2018, much of Scandinavia experienced record heat and severe drought, causing higher mortality, water shortages for farms, reduced hydropower, and rising energy prices. The heatwave, drought, and resulting wildfires formed a multi-hazard event, where several hazards occur together or in sequence. As climate change could increase the likelihood of such events, preparing for them and evaluating mitigation options becomes essential. To enhance understanding and support disaster risk management, we investigate the interactions between heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires across sectors in Scandinavia through a spatial analysis of compound events. We then estimate their direct and indirect economic impacts with the global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model GRACE, using the 2018 heatwave–drought for assessing multi-hazard risk.
2 Illustration/Graph/Picture Figure. Economic impacts of 2018 compound events: GDP impacts in 33 European countries (Ducros et al., 2025) Want to know more? ● Link to paper: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/4693/2025/ ● Full reference: Ducros, G., Tiggeloven, T., Ma, L., Daloz, A. S., Schuhen, N., Claassen, J., and de Ruiter, M. C. (2025): Multi-hazards in Scandinavia: impacts and risks from compound heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4693–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4693-2025. ● MYRIAD-EU website: www.myriadproject.eu ● X: @Myriad_EU ● Contact: Lin Ma (lin.m[email protected]o)
