The EU Eastern Enlargement from today's perspective

Bosoancă, Ionelia Bianca Article The EU Eastern Enlargement from today's perspective CES Working Papers Provided in Cooperation with: Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University Suggested Citation: Bosoancă, Ionelia Bianca (2021) : The EU Eastern Enlargement from today's perspective, CES Working Papers, ISSN 2067-7693, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, Centre for European Studies, Iasi, Vol. 13, Iss. 4, pp. 367-380 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/286664 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CES Working Papers – Volume XIII, Issue 4 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 367 The EU eastern enlargement from today’s perspective Ionelia Bianca BOSOANCĂ* Abstract This paper discusses the major challenges for the present European Commission, starting with Brexit and ending with issues such as EU Eastern Enlargement from today’s perspectives, trying to explain why it is difficult to talk about enlargement in a fragmented European Union. How will the European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations evolve in the actual mandate of the European Commission? Did the European Commission succeed in offering Eastern states the opportunity to join the European Union by developing instruments encouraging states to meet the accession criteria? A qualitative analysis will be used to highlight the novelty elements analyzed by the proposed theme; the author uses a study case using as research instruments discourse and content analysis. Therefore, the main objective of this research paper is to highlight how the European leaders’ discourse on a possible enlargement of the European Union has evolved. Keywords: European Union, European Neighborhood Policy, challenges, enlargement, perspectives Introduction Nowadays, the European Union is one of the best models of cooperation between European states, a model replicated on the basis of economic cooperation, principles, values, beliefs and other elements forming the European identity (Warleigh-Lack, 2008, p.15). This is also due to the changing expectations of European States regarding the opportunities offered by the European Union, i.e., they felt that, in exchange for the sovereignty given to the European Union, they would receive other national privileges. Increasing their responsibility comes along with a number of requirements from European States and, sometimes, with disputes on the part of the States dissatisfied with their privileges. The European Union, as it exists today, derives from thousands of large and small political negotiations (Kotlowski and Hoff, 2000, p.16). Member States have transferred some decisions to a supranational body internal policy (Dedman, 1996, p.7). The difficult road that the European Union has been going through over half a century has been one full of obstacles in terms of negotiations * Ionelia Bianca BOSOANCĂ is PhD student at Babeș-Bolyai University, Faculty of European Studies, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, e-mail: [email protected]. CES Working Papers | 2021 – volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY Ionelia Bianca BOSOANCĂ 368 between States, but also of concessions between them because, without these two extremely important elements, today’s European Union would not have survived. Behind these ongoing negotiations were people with persuasion, who put pressure on states to renounce some of their national prerogatives and hand them over to the supranational level. The European Union enlargement remains a sensitive topic for Members of the European Commission but also for the Member States because Member States’ representatives advocate for other national priorities. Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union gives States the legal basis by which they may accede to the European Union. The Article states that “any European country which respects the EU values set out in the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and which undertakes to promote these values may apply to become a Member of the EU” (Treaty on European Union, 2012). A second criterion that States must take into account is to meet the Copenhagen criteria. These new criteria established that the process of a new state’s accession to the European Union would only take place if it had the strategic capacity to integrate new members, and membership will take place once the country is able to take on its membership obligations by meeting the required economic and political conditions (Treaty on European Union, 2012). There is currently a number of States that have applied for accession to the European Union but whose request has only been made clear on the waiting list of countries that wish to join the European Union. Throughout the previous mandate of the European Commission which had a difficult portfolio because it has to deal with strong issues such as Brexit, expansion of terrorism, rise of Euroscepticism and loss of citizens’ trust in the European values, it is hard to have an optimistic perspective with reference to the EU Eastern Enlargement. This paper discusses the major challenges for the present European Commission, starting with Brexit and ending with issues such as EU Eastern Enlargement from today’s perspectives, trying to explain why it is difficult to talk about enlargement in a fragmented European Union. It is simple when we talk about countries where convergence criteria are not met, but it is complicated when we talk about states with ethnic problems or states with frozen conflicts, which are far from being resolved. Here, the chances of possible integration into the future are extremely low. In this paper, a qualitative analysis will be used to highlight the novelty elements analyzed by the proposed theme. As a research method of this paper, the author proposes a case study using discourse analysis and content analysis as research instruments. Discourse analysis helps us to outline some variables (persuasion, context and actions) to explain how the European leaders’ discourse on a possible enlargement of the European Union has evolved! There are some research questions CES Working Papers | 2021 - volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY The EU eastern enlargement from today’s perspective 369 developed in this paper - How will the European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations evolve in the actual mandate of the European Commission? Did the European Commission succeed in offering Eastern states the opportunity to join the European Union by developing instruments encouraging states to meet the accession criteria? What is the EU Eastern Enlargement from today’s perspective? 1. A European Union full of challenges This subchapter will discuss the challenges for the European Union, trying to highlight present perspectives for the development of a new enlargement. The analysis will capture the current tendencies and vulnerabilities of the European Union. The achievement of the European Union was a complex process, which started from the idea of cooperation between European States, followed by complementary policies, common values and beliefs of Member States that wanted to join to the European Union. Building the trust of the Member States and their leaders was one of the most difficult challenges in the construction process because there were many tense moments between them and, many times, hatred between States was more important than the beneficial results for their economies. There were egos and nationalist demands, and the road to ideal was increasingly assiduous. We can even say that the European Union was built from a series of failures of previous constructions but, following the logical thread of the succession of events, we can see that the idea has been preserved over time - let us just say that it has been slightly polished to reach today’s result. The current prototype of the European Union is not a perfect one; although it has undergone many reconfigurations throughout history, it is subject to change and often faced with crises. This is due to uncertainty, technological evolution, but also to the new dangers facing humanity. For the latter, it seems that the European Union has not been equipped with a success recipe, but with the policy specialists’ support, it is looking for solutions to solve the problems, thus reconfiguring problems that have not been anticipated so far. Over time, construction has undergone several institutional changes aimed at facilitating the integration of new states into the current European cooperation structure – the European Union. The treaties were the main legislative instruments for implementing new regulations to help European integration. The European Union has developed means by which European States have been able to adapt to key challenges, such as the rise to better life, economic independence and the provision of stability that will keep States away from a new World War. Countries have learned over the years CES Working Papers | 2021 – volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY Ionelia Bianca BOSOANCĂ 370 that cooperation is important to achieve the objectives, which must be ensured in the integration process (Warleigh-Lack, 2009, p. 10). The new era has brought a lot of challenges which Europe has had to face, with European integration being the key challenge for the European Union. Yugoslavia’s violent disintegration has increased pressure on the European Union, prompting it to develop its foreign policy, security and defense capabilities against external threats. The free movement of people has required increased cooperation in the management of the EU’s external borders, visa coordination, – replace, it doesn’t make sense and police cooperation across borders. There have also been pressing environmental challenges. Equally, eager to address the inadequacies of the previous reform, the follow-up to the work agenda and integration projects (Phinnemore, 2013, p.5), EU supporters were planning to further integrate the accession countries. There is now a dangerous mix between political wear and economic stress, between the current formal limitations and structural and material challenges. The combination of politics and economy is pushing the European Union to instability at systemic risk (Laursen, 2012, p.97). The current challenge is the unstable external context, whether we are talking about frozen conflicts, social and economic crises, political conflicts between States, the issue of Euroscepticism or challenges arising from the possibility of enlargement of the European Union. When Europe is in one of the situations mentioned above, the first attempt is to return to the text of the treaties in force and to negotiate compromise between States or to find public policy solutions that will solve the current problems facing the States. Another key factor in explaining the continuing controversy between Member States is the diversity of persistent ambitions between the Member States of the European Union. Some countries continue to be generally supportive of the idea that the EU should become a form of federation, and others continue to expect the EU to offer them more tools. One of the major factors contributing to the controversy over the EU reform process is that there are different options as to how a problem needs to be addressed and that no one will be fully covered by the compromise it creates (Warleigh- Lack, year, p. 10). In a compromise for a country that brings a legislative proposal that it deems necessary for the whole European Union, discussions will arise that that compromise only has a political stake and that it was not necessary to be addressed as a matter for the whole of the European Union. This is where long negotiations start, where states are relying on alliances to support their own ideas by offering compromises in exchange for mutual benefits. CES Working Papers | 2021 - volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY The EU eastern enlargement from today’s perspective 371 1.1. Brexit The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland was officially declared a Member of the European Economic Community in 1973. Although the British were invited to join the initiative for cooperation between European States from the start of the project, they were not interested because they were in a favorable and stable position in relation to the countries that were deeply affected after World War II. After about fifty years of EU membership, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland decided to leave the bloc on 23 June 2016: UK citizens with voting rights participated in the polls to decide whether Britain should stay in or leave the European Union. The success of the 51.89% pro-departure vote astonished not only the British public, but also the big political parties, voting organizations, and the media, not to mention the majority of political scientists. The result of the vote also brought together their continental counterparts who, until then, did not believe such a result possible. Despite the numerous crises experienced by the European continent, national and supranational authorities have not anticipated the possibility of Brexit (Martill and Staiger, 2018, p.4). The period immediately following the outcome of the referendum and 2020 was an extremely tensioned, full of uncertainties and complex negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This post-Brexit process has been highly criticized by political analysts but also by Member States and all actors who took part in the debate on the UK-EU relationship after leaving the bloc. It was clear from the outset that no consensus would be reached to resolve all the claims raised by the negotiating actors, but one of the most sensitive issues of the issue and a key Brexit debate was linked to the citizens. Although we have seen a prolonged process of negotiations between the European Union and Britain and a first departure from the Community bloc by a European state, the question which arises is whether the European Union is ready for enlargement in the next five or ten years? On the other hand, there are Eurosceptics who rule out the possibility of a new wave of accession from the outset, even talking about the possibility of other European States following the example of Britain and wanting to leave the European construction. CES Working Papers | 2021 – volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY Ionelia Bianca BOSOANCĂ 372 1.2. The euroscepticism phenomenon Another risk caused by Brexit is the increase in populism at the Member States’ level, a trend which is intensified on the basis of the populist discourse of political leaders and the nationalism of the European Union Member States. Populists or Euro-sceptics, as I called them, try to manipulate the masses in favor of the growth of the polls and to gain them by talking about national principles, state sovereignty and the limitation of the decision-making power in the framework declared by the rules coming from Brussels. Euroscepticism is growing and anti-European activity characterized by the founding States of the Union itself, as well. States like Ukraine, Republic of Moldova or Turkey are against EU institutions, its expansion and the Schengen area. The free movement of people is starting to be disapproved and becomes a strong reason against the effectiveness of joining the European Union. In this respect, religion becomes a sensitive point and solidarity is coming out of the landscape, because we wonder: Is it possible to stand together even if our specificity is restricted? Obviously, the answer is no, and this response is the basis of Euroscepticism. The rise in polls of parties with Eurosceptic visions can be seen as a threat to the future of the European Union. This may be a problem, because the story of Brexit can be repeated with other States that could jeopardize the EU project and contribute to its breakdown. For this reason, it is important that the European Union does not focus its efforts on the UK’s penalty for Brexit, but rather on resolving its pain points and rethinking its instruments of action to prevent the increase in Eurosceptic trends within the European Union. The Union needs a new breath, which will restore confidence to those who no longer believe in the effectiveness of the structure and the benefits it brings to the European continent. 2. European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Smith argues that enlargement was a means by which the European Union deliberately develops its broader foreign policy capacity by developing new instruments and ideas that are portable in the problematic areas of foreign policy (Smith, 2004). Given the external dangers at Europe’s borders, the European Union has tried to facilitate the accession of States to this structure in order to secure its European borders. Member States have been given the necessary instruments for economic development but also instruments for action against external threats. Accession to the European Union has also been closely linked to NATO membership, a structure that aims to provide States with CES Working Papers | 2021 - volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY The EU eastern enlargement from today’s perspective 373 support against foreign threats. Although today there are States calling for strengthening PESCO and for creating a common European army, thereby abandoning the dependence on NATO and its ties with the US, the new European defense structure is not able to ensure the deployment of European citizens. The European army is now a French old dream of being back in the spotlight and becoming a new power at European level, but also a subject trying to gain political support. The European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) was developed to promote prosperity, stability and security within the EU’s neighbours and to avoid new dividing lines between the enlarged EU and its neighbours. Home Affairs issues remain a priority. The EU offers its neighbours a privileged relationship, building upon common values (democracy and human rights, rule of law, good governance, market economy principles and sustainable development). Ambitions for the relationship depend on the extent to which these values are shared (European Commission). The benefits of EU enlargement are: increased prosperity for all Member States: 3 times more trade between old and new Member States, 5 times more between new Member States; greater stability in Europe; a stronger role for the EU on the world stage (Consiliul European, 2021). The renewed consensus on enlargement agreed at the December 2006 European Council continues to guide EU enlargement policy. EU leaders agreed to follow a strategy based on: Strengthening the EU’s commitments to the ongoing accession negotiations; fair and rigorous conditionality at all stages of the negotiations with candidate countries; increased transparency and better communication, to ensure broad and sustained public support: The EU’s capacity to integrate new members. For the European Union, enlargement to Central and Eastern European States is of great political interest and this is linked to the role of European integration in preserving peace and democracy. If the EU were to reject enlargement to the East, it would have discouraged the countries of Central and Eastern Europe from the reform process. By promising accession to the European Union, it opens up the prospects for security and welfare for these countries. It is unlikely that in the coming years there will be new accessions by states to the European Union due to their difficulties in failing to meet accession criteria. If these countries remain excluded from the enlargement process, they can be kept in a peripheral position, which could make them less attractive, especially in terms of foreign investment, whose role is essential in the transition process. At the internal level, this enlargement will have an impact on the nature and functioning of the EU institutions, the enlargement being preceded by a reform of the Community institutions so that their functioning is efficient. CES Working Papers | 2021 – volume XIII(4) | wwww.ceswp.uaic.ro | ISSN: 2067 - 7693 | CC BY Ionelia Bianca BOSOANCĂ 374 The extension of the European Union’s borders to Eastern Europe raises a number of questions. This is because of the peculiarities of non-member states. We have the example of the Republic of Moldova, where the question of whether the Republic of Moldova has any chance to enter the European Union in a near future is a firm no. The first explanation is very simple: The European Union cannot receive a country with unclear borders with foreign troops on its territory. Secondly, it is that of the countries in the process of transition to a market-economy system. This is reflected in the special conditions for accession imposed by the Copenhagen Summit in 1993, namely stable democracy, a competitive market economy and the adoption of the acquis Communautaire. The differences in income between the EU and EU candidate countries was very large. These gaps give rise to tensions and major problems - Enlargement to the East threatens the Union with a stronger migration wave than that of previous enlargements. The labour force from Eastern European countries tends to migrate to Western Europe in search of better living conditions than in the countries of origin. This migration brings losses to the economy of less developed countries, creating development gaps between Member States. Economic challenges and vulnerabilities are numerous and complex. The whole sense of human society is a competition for power, more specifically, for the means and mechanisms of power, which are primarily economic and financial. At present, discussions about enlargements for countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia are not currently on the agenda. The main problem is the fact that a decision regarding the accession of a new state must be approved with a unanimous vote of the Member States and, nowadays, states have a political interest in other specific problems, other than integration issues. It is known that the European Union is determined to continue its expansion in the future in the Western Balkans countries, especially after the dispute with Greece over the name of Northern Macedonia has been resolved. When it comes to Turkey’s accession, things are much more complicated. Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova have no real prospects of joining the European Union in the next few years, as they, too, are far from joining the Euro-building process. Under these circumstances, the question arises as to whether, in the future, when the European Union is ready to receive them in the community, they will still be interested in joining it? I think everything will depend on the time it runs until the countries become eligible to join the European Union. It is known that the European States currently joining the European Union do not meet the convergence criteria for joining this structure. It is clear that years will pass by the time of the accession and it is possible that the states will change their priorities and political guidelines. The