The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers

Seiler, Christian Article The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers Schmollers Jahrbuch – Journal of Applied Social Science Studies. Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften Provided in Cooperation with: Duncker & Humblot, Berlin Suggested Citation: Seiler, Christian (2012) : The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers, Schmollers Jahrbuch – Journal of Applied Social Science Studies. Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, ISSN 1865-5742, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Vol. 132, Iss. 4, pp. 609-618, https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/292387 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ European Data Watch This section offers descriptions as well as discussions of data sources that are of interest to social scientists engaged in empirical research or teaching courses that include empirical investigations performed by students. The purpose is to describe the information in the data source, to give examples of questions tackled with the data and to tell how to access the data for research and teaching. We focus on data from German speaking countries that allow international comparative research. While most of the data are at the micro level (individuals, households, or firms), more aggregate data and meta data (for regions, industries, or nations) are included as well. Suggestions for data sources to be described in future columns (or comments on past columns) should be send to: Joachim Wagner, Leuphana University of Lueneburg, Institute of Economics, Campus 4.210, 21332 Lueneburg, Germany, or e-mailed to [email protected]. Past “European Data Watch”articles can be downloaded free of charge from the homepage of the German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD) at: http://www.ratswd.de. The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers By Christian Seiler 1. Introduction The LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center was founded by the Ifo Institute and the Ludwig-Maximilian-University of Munich in 2008 to establish a central place for the collection and supply of research data on economic and business sciences. This joint initiative aims to increase synergies between empirical and theoretical research. Since its foundation in 1949, the Ifo Institute has collected relevant data for the Federal Republic of Germany with respect to cyclical trends, capital spending by firms and their innovation strategy. In addition to Ifo survey data, EBDC offers combined panel data sets of these surveys Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012), 609 –618 Duncker & Humblot, Berlin Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 with balance sheet data from Amadeus and Hoppenstedt. These panels include both Ifo Institute survey data (Ifo panel data at firm level), as well as external accounting data and other structural enterprise information concerning corporate finance or investment activity. 2. Ifo Survey Data At the core of the data sets provided by the EBDC are the micro data sets of the Ifo surveys. The Ifo Institute conducted its Ifo Business Survey (IBS, ifo Konjunkturtest) for the first time in 1949. The most well-known result is the Ifo Business Climate Index (ifo Geschäftsklimaindex), which is closely observed by journalists, researchers and the general public. Abberger/Wohlrabe (2006) provide an overview of studies with respect to forecasting issues of the Ifo Business Climate Index. The survey initially covered the manufacturing sector, but was quickly extended in the 1950s to the trade (1950) and construction sector (1956). In 1995, the survey was also introduced in the service sector on a quarterly basis and has been performed monthly since 2004. The main characteristic of the survey is that nearly all of the questions constitute inherent tendency statements that make it possible to generate quick results on the current situation and expectations concerning the most interesting business parameters such as demand, prices or staff, see Becker/Wohlrabe (2008). In line with the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys1 these variables measure cyclical development over time. In addition to the four main sectors, Ifo also performs a quarterly business survey of the insurance industry. Besides the IBS, the Ifo Institute also conducts other surveys on a less frequent basis. In 1955, the Ifo Investment Survey (IVS, ifo Investitionstest) was introduced in manufacturing, and was subsequently extended to trade (1956). Today, the IVS is regularly performed in its original form in manufacturing. However, the IVS in trade has been conducted in an abbreviated form since 1999 as special questions in the IBS for trade. Ifo also performs the Ifo Innovation Survey (INS, ifo Innovationstest) on an annual basis, which focuses on innovation activities, the aims of innovative developments and factors influencing the innovation process. Besides this extensive survey, the IBS features some special questions on the topic of innovation. Whereas in the IBS, IVS and INS German firms are questioned on their business parameters, the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) launched by Ifo in 1981 asks experts in foreign countries about the economic situation and their expectations. Topics cov- 610 Christian Seiler Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 1The surveys conducted by the Ifo Institute are performed in similar way in all EU member states to calculate comparable results such as the EU Economic sentiment indicator. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 ered include trade balances, inflation rates and domestic share prices. More information on this survey can be found in Stangl (2007). Not all data sets are available back to the first wave of the survey. Table 1 gives an overview of the first wave, the available data sets, the number of observations, as well as the number of different questions. All surveys were quickly introduced to former Eastern Germany after German reunification in 1990. Further information on the methodological foundations of all the Ifo Institute’s surveys can be found in Goldrian (2007). However, all users should bear in mind that the questions asked can differ between sectors even if the survey is the same. This is because many questions cannot be answered meaningfully in other sectors such as, for example, capacity utilization in trade. For the IBS, Table 2 gives an overview of selected questions that were asked in at least two out of four sectors. In general, we recommend that each analysis should start with the most interesting sector and it should subsequently be checked whether it is possible to extend the research question to the other sectors. Table 1 Overview of Ifo surveys Survey Sector First wave Frequency Available data sets Number of questions2 IBS manufacturing 1949 monthly since 1980 66 construction 1956 monthly since 1991 113 trade 1950 monthly since 1991 45 service 1995 monthly3since 1995 20 insurance 1999 quarterly since 1999 33 IVS manufacturing 1955 bi-annually since 1964 208 trade 1956 yearly4since 2000 6 INS manufacturing 1979 yearly since 1982 697 WES - 1981 quarterly since 1983 47 LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center 611 Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 2Including special questions that may be asked only in a single wave as of the last wave in 2010. 3On a quarterly basis between 1995 and 2004. 4Bi-annually until 1999. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 Table 2 Comparable questions in the IBS across sectors (selection) Question Manufacturing Construction Trade Service Business expectations X X X X Business situation X X X X Capacity utilization X X Demand X X Employees X X X X Orders X X Prices X X X 3. Combined Data Sets In order to increase the potential of microdata analyses, the EBDC provides combined data sets by merging Ifo survey and Amadeus/Hoppenstedt balance sheet data. This data merger is performed with record linkage. After this procedure, merges with higher uncertainty are checked for accordance. Hönig (2010) gives a more detailed introduction to this procedure. Notice that the merge is done if there exists at least one year for which both, survey and balance sheet data, are available for the same company. The merge of balance sheet data with the IBS leads to the EBDC Business Expectations Panel (BEP), while merging this data with the IVS gives the EBDC Business Investment Panel (BIP) and merging it with the INS (including special questions on innovation topics from the IBS) leads to the EBDC Business Innovation Panel (BINP). For all of these panels, combinations, e.g., all firms which appear in the BEP as well as in the BIP, exist and can be used in the EBDC. Figure 1 offers an overview of the construction of the EBDC business panels. However, as balance sheet data are usually on annual frequency and the Ifo survey data normally have higher frequencies, the analyst has to think about how to join these different types of frequencies (aggregate or disaggregate information) on the one hand, and has to adjust the coverage of the balance sheet data on the other, as the business year of a company may not correspond to the calendar year, e.g., a balance sheet may cover the period from April 2009 to March 2010. Balance sheet data in the EBDC panels therefore have their own row in the data set marked by month = 99.5So, for any analysis including survey and balance sheet data, the user has to think about how to combine these data in order to perform a regression analysis. 612 Christian Seiler Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 5The balance sheet data are assigned to the year that includes most of the fiscal year, e.g., a balance sheet from April 2009 to March 2010 is assigned to 2009. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 Figure 1: Data sets provided in the EBDC 4. Some Descriptive Statistics In order to get an idea of the structure and magnitude of the EBDC data sets, we provide some descriptive statistics in this section. As the EBDC business panels are a subset of the IBS, the question arises as to whether representativeness is still given. Figure 2 shows the Ifo Business Climate Index for the manufacturing sector for all companies in the IBS (black) and for the subset of firms for which balance sheet data is available in BEP (grey). It can clearly be seen that no structural difference exists, i.e., the BEP can be stated as a representative subset with respect to the IBS. Table 3 shows the number of enterprises and observations before and after merging Ifo survey with balance sheet data. For example, the IBS in manufacturing contains 1,458,240 observations from 16,830 enterprises as of the last wave in 2010. After merging these observations with balance sheet data, 606,024 observations from 4,896 enterprises remain. For every enterprise, a merge is done in cases where survey and balance sheet data exist in parallel for at least one year. LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center 613 Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 Figure 2: Ifo Business Climate Index for the manufacturing sector 1994–2009 (black = original indicator from the whole IBS, grey = indicator calculated from the subset of firms included in the BEP). Table 3 Number of observations and enterprises in the Ifo surveys and the combined data sets6 Survey Sector Observations before merge Enterprises before merge Observations after merge Enterprises after merge IBS manufacturing 1,458,240 16,830 606,024 4,896 construction 775,609 19,887 338,953 6,337 trade 705,371 6,747 299,882 5,196 service 175,568 6,936 158,386 5,217 IVS manufacturing 344,462 20,835 193,957 5,465 trade 9,869 2,617 11,896 1,291 INS manufacturing 38,471 7,399 69,705 3,950 614 Christian Seiler Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 6As of the last wave in 2010. The insurance sector in the IBS, as well as the construction sector in the IVS, are not combined due to a lack of appropriate balance sheet data. The higher number of observations in the IVS trade after the merge results due to the fact that balance sheet data back to 1998 are included if survey and balance sheet are available for at least one year. OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 5. Research Papers with EBDC Data Although the EBDC has existed since 2008, a lot of research papers were published prior to this date as the surveys of the Ifo Institute have been conducted for over 60 years. An overview of microdata analyses prior to the foundation of the EBDC is given in Becker/Wohlrabe (2008). Table 4 gives an overview of publications since 2008. It can clearly be seen that the range of topics is very broad. For example, Bachmann/Elstner/Sims (2010) analyse economic uncertainty by using the “tandem”-questions (situation and expectations), which appear for various business parameters in the IBS. Schenkelberg (2011) analyses the price setting behaviour of German firms, Carstensen/ Schenkelberg (2011) analyse different price setting and inflation theories with the IBS and Strasser (2012) looks at price setting behavior with respect to credit constraints. With the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, several papers appeared that deal with credit constraints, e.g., Engemann/Eck/Schnitzer (2011), Felbermayr/Heiland/Yalcin (2012) and Rottmann/Wollmershäuser (2013). Carstensen/Elstner/Paula (2011) analysed the effects of oil market developments on the 2008/2009 German recession. In addition to answering economic issues, topics with respect to survey methodology have also been discussed. Abberger/Birnbrich/Seiler (2009) conducted a meta survey for the IBS in trade to evaluate information on the respondent and the questions asked in the standard IBS. Stangl (2008) compares the ordinal tendency answers in the IBS with continuous replies on a Visual Analog Scale. Seiler (2010) and Seiler/Heumann (2012) analyse the IBS with respect to nonresponse and evaluate their implications for macro level results. LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center 615 Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 Table 4 Overview of publications with EBDC data since 2008 Study Main topic(s) Data set(s) Abberger, Birnbrich and Seiler (2009) Respondents Special Bachmann, Elstner and Sims (2010) Economic uncertainty IVS Carstensen, Elstner and Paula (2011) Oil market, demand shocks IBS Carstensen and Schenkelberg (2011) Price setting IBS Engemann, Eck and Schnitzer (2011) Trade credits BEP Falck, Heblich and Kipar (2011) Process & product innovation INS Felbermayr, Heiland and Yalcin (2012) Export, credit constraints IBS, BEP Fidrmuc and Hainz (2009) Banking supervision IBS Kipar (2011) Bank lending, innovation INS Pesaran and Timmermann (2009) Correlations, Markov chains IBS Paula (2010) Innovation INS OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45 Study Main topic(s) Data set(s) Schenkelberg (2011) Price setting IBS Seiler (2010) Nonresponse IBS Seiler and Heumann (2012) Nonresponse, imputation IBS Stangl (2008) Economic expectations IBS Strasser (2012) Price setting IBS 6. Access and Service Due to the high confidentiality and the obligation to maintain the secrecy of both survey results and panel member identity, the EBDC panels can only be used on the premises of the EBDC and are made available with a time lag. The data can only be accessed on computers which have no internet access, printer or other external storage media and which can only be used in the presence of an EBDC staff member. This person will ensure, on completion of the researcher’s stay, that the anonymised data do not allow the identification of individual firms and that no inferences can be drawn regarding panel composition. Moreover, after this examination has been successfully carried out, the EBDC staff member will send the results in Stata format. Individuals can apply for access to EBDC datasets by completing a form at the Ifo website www.ifo.de/ebdc. In addition, a short description of the research project and accompanying information as to scheduling must be submitted to gain permission. Upon request the EBDC will send a test package by email containing an anonymised and randomized EBDC test panel in Stata-for- mat, as well as the documentation on the respective original dataset. The EBDC expressly supports empirical research projects and is thus free-of- charge. References Abberger,K./Birnbrich,M./Seiler, C. (2009): Der ‘Test des Tests’im Handel –eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest, ifo Schnelldienst 62 (21), 34–41. Abberger,K./Wohlrabe, K. (2006): Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas –Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur, ifo Schnelldienst 59 (22), 19–26. Bachmann,R./Elstner,S./Sims, E. (2010): Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data, NBER Working Paper 16143. Becker,S.O./Wohlrabe, K. (2008): European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research –The “Ifo Business Survey, Usage and Access”, Schmollers Jahrbuch –Journal of Applied Social Science Studies 128 (2), 307–319. 616 Christian Seiler Schmollers Jahrbuch 132 (2012) 4 OPEN ACCESS | Licensed under | https://creativecommons.org/about/cclicenses/ DOI https://doi.org/10.3790/schm.132.4.609 | Generated on 2023-01-16 13:36:45