Measurement of the real urbanization level in China and its international comparison

Cai, Jiming; Du, Guonan; Liu, Yuan Article Measurement of the real urbanization level in China and its international comparison China Political Economy (CPE) Provided in Cooperation with: School of Economics, Nanjing University Suggested Citation: Cai, Jiming; Du, Guonan; Liu, Yuan (2019) : Measurement of the real urbanization level in China and its international comparison, China Political Economy (CPE), ISSN 2516-1652, Emerald, Leeds, Vol. 2, Iss. 2, pp. 287-317, https://doi.org/10.1108/CPE-10-2019-0018 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319410 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Measurement of the real urbanization level in China and its international comparison Jiming Cai, Du Guonan and Liu Yuan Tsinghua University, Beijing, China Abstract Purpose –The purpose of this paper is to estimate the real urbanization level in China so as to provide a measurement that can be compared with the international level. Design/methodology/approach –Taking into consideration 300m residents living in the administrative towns (300m residents here are referred to the population in administrative towns, including those in all counties), the gap between the urbanization rate of China and that of the world average becomes much wider. Findings –China, however, implements the administrative system of government at the central, provincial, municipal, county and township levels. By city, it means the jurisdiction at and above the level of county, which includes the municipality directly under the central government, prefecture-level municipal and county. By town, it means the jurisdiction below the level of county (including the Chengguan Town, or capital town, where the county government is located) and exclusive of rural townships. Originality/value –China has witnessed rapid development for 40 years since the reform and opening up in 1978. Nowadays, China has already stepped into the period of post-industrialization, with its urbanization rate (UR) of permanent population reaching 58.58 percent. However, on the basis of registered population, the UR is 43.37 percent, which is not only far below the average level of 81.3 percent in high-income countries, but also lower than the average of 65.8 percent in upper middle-income countries which are comparable to China in terms of per capita income. (The classification of state income level is based on the data of national income per capita and division standards in 2016 from the World Bank, in which annual revenue per capita in highincome countries reaches over US$12,736 and that in upper middle-income countries between US$4,126 and US$12,735.) Keywords Urbanization, International comparison, Townization Paper type Research paper 1. The connections and differences between urbanization and townization It could have been noted by some careful readers that the term “urbanization”mentioned in this paper is different from “townization,”which has been used in official documents or some scholars’academic publications. Therefore, it begs several questions as to what is the distinction between urbanization and townization? Whether these two terms can be used alternatively or is one of them more scientific so that it can replace the other? 1.1 The definition of the concepts of city and town We shall first make clear-cut definitions of and distinctions between the concepts of city and town. According to the administrative organization system in western democracies which implements the policy of regional autonomy, both the government of cities and that of towns China Political Economy Vol. 2 No. 2, 2019 pp. 287-317 Emerald Publishing Limited 2516-1652 DOI 10.1108/CPE-10-2019-0018 Received 1 October 2019 Revised 1 October 2019 Accepted 15 October 2019 The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at: www.emeraldinsight.com/2516-1652.htm © Jiming Cai, Du Guonan and Liu Yuan. Published in China Political Economy. Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode 287 Real urbanization level in China are established through the election by their local residents. For this reason, the difference between cities and towns only lies in their sizes rather than superior–subordinate relations. China, however, implements the administrative system of government at the central, provincial, municipal, county and township levels. By city, it means the jurisdiction at and above the level of county, which includes the municipality directly under the central government, prefecture-level municipal and county. By town, it means the jurisdiction below the level of county (including the Chengguan Town, or capital town, where the county government is located) and exclusive of rural townships. The city is also different from the town with respect to the level of economic and social development. In accordance with the “Provision on the Statistical Division of Urban and Rural Areas”( formally approved by the State Council on July 12, 2008 National Decree, 2008, No. 60), the urban districts of the established cities approved by the State Council include the downtown areas of municipals with subordinate districts and those without subordinate districts. Urban areas of municipals with subordinate districts include (1) the entire jurisdiction under district government, with the population density of municipal districts at and above 1500 people per square kilometer; (2) the seat of district government and the areas for other sub-district offices, with the population density of municipal districts below 1500 people per square kilometer; and (3) the entire jurisdiction of relevant administrative towns and rural townships, if the urban construction of district government mentioned in (2) has extended to part of the areas of the surrounding administrative towns and rural townships. Other areas of municipals with subordinate districts are divided in accordance with this provision’s standard for townships and rural towns. Urban areas of municipals without subordinate districts include the seat of municipal government and the areas for other sub-district offices, and the entire jurisdiction of relevant administrative towns and rural townships, if the urban construction of the seat of municipal government has extended to part of the areas of the surrounding administrative towns and rural townships. Other areas of municipals without subordinate districts are divided in accordance with this provision’s standard for towns and villages. In accordance with “Report on Adjustment of Establishing Standards of Towns,”which was ratified by the State Council and transmitted to the Ministry of Civil Affairs in 1984, the difference between towns and rural townships is as follows: towns should be set where local governments at county level are located; towns can be established if there are more than 2,000 non-agricultural population in the rural townships and at the seats of their governments, and with a total population of less than 20,000; towns can be established if the proportion of non-agricultural population is above 10 percent in the rural townships and at the seats of their governments, and with a total population of more than 20,000; and towns can also be established if actually necessary for areas of minorities, remote areas with sparse population, mountainous areas, mining areas of small scale, tourist spots and frontier ports, even though the non-agricultural population of these areas is less than 2,000. It can be demonstrated that there are qualitative and quantitative distinctions between cities and towns (especially cities and administrative towns except county seats) from the perspectives of both administrative levels of governments and economic and social development. By the end of 2017, China has in total 661 cities and 21,116 administrative towns above county level. The number of permanent residents reaches 156m at Chengguan towns (where county governments are located), with a population of approximately 100,000 per county on average. The number of permanent residents at other administrative towns is approximately 187m, with only 10,300 people per town on average[1]. However, population sizes and economic power of some administrative towns in east China have far surpassed that of some counties or even prefecture-level cities in the central and west China. For instance, the number of permanent residents in Humen Town and Chang’an Town of 288 CPE 2,2 Dongguan (in Guangdong Province) has reached 0.6m in 2017, and the regional economic gross of both towns exceeded RMB 50bn. Besides, the population of permanent residents in Yiwu, a county-level city, has reached 1.37m in 2017, among which the number of permanent residents in downtown areas has reached 0.88m, which has far surpassed that of its prefecture-level city, Jinhua (0.8m). It indicates that the pace of the adjustment of China’s administrative system severely lags behind local economic and social development. China’s“Urban Planning Law”explicitly states that “cities in this Law refer to the municipality directly under central government, municipals and towns set on the basis of administrative construction systems,”which obviously includes administrative towns in the category of cities. However, cities and towns are differentiated from each other when cities of diverse sizes and small towns are mentioned together in official contexts. Therefore, it seems that the definitions of cities and townships in both broad and narrow sense can be given as below: (1) Cities in broad sense include towns while that in narrow sense exclude towns. (2) Towns in broad sense contain cities and towns while that in narrow sense exclude cities in narrow sense. (3) Small towns in broad sense include small cities and towns in narrow sense, whereas small towns in narrow sense mean the small ones compared with large and medium towns. Small towns in official contexts particularly indicate all townships of difference sizes. 1.2 Differences between urbanization and townization To take urbanization or townization as the dominant strategy of national economic development remains an essential issue due to the prominent distinctions between cities and towns, even though only one character differs in Chinese. First of all, from the respect of differences between “cities”and “towns”in the corresponding two concepts, “urbanization”and “townization,”the administrative level of cities is superior to that of towns. Also, generally speaking, economic and social development as well as modernization degree of cities is higher than those of towns. Second, the Chinese character “hua”shared in the two concepts of “urbanization”and “townization”has the fundamental meaning of change and alteration[2]. According to explanation of modern Chinese, the Chinese character “hua”is an affix for word formation, which can be used after nouns or adjectives to form verbs, gerunds or adjectives, and presents the changes into certain properties or status. Last but not the least, urbanization means citizenization of agriculturally transferred population from an overall perspective, which not only stresses the transformation from agricultural labor force to non-agricultural industries, but also emphasizes the conversion from rural inhabitants to urban residents. However, townization means the changes of many rural residents into town residents, admitting or even emphasizing the necessity and rationality of sayings such as “farmers leaving lands but not villages”“entering factories but not cities”or “entering cities without registered household,”“immigrating but not settling down,”etc., which is a sort of incomplete (or undone) urbanization. 1.3 Urbanization or townization, which is more scientific and rational? First, townization embodies changes of large quantity of rural inhabitants into town residents, among which many town residents have not completely detached from agricultural production. It usually results in the establishment of considerable small towns, which occupies too many cultivated lands, wastes large quantity of resources, damages the eco-system and pollutes the environment, missing the ideal effects of urbanization. 289 Real urbanization level in China Urban areas are the places with the development of non-agricultural industries, urban lives, the well-beings pursued by population transferred from agriculture; urban civilization, the direction of development of rural civilization; and citizens; the ultimate identities of rural residents. Besides, the wording of “coordinated development of large, medium, small cities and small towns”in the 16th National Congress of CPC contains contradictions: cities of diverse sizes include both cities and towns at different scales if the interpretations of cities and towns in broad sense are employed, therefore the following phrase “small towns”are redundant; if cities and towns are interpreted in narrow sense, towns apart from cities include medium and large towns instead of the small ones only. Administrative towns can be regarded as micro-cities if the concept of cities in broad sense is adopted and townization is replaced by urbanization. In this case, the statement in the 16th National Congress of CPC can be altered to “the coordinated development of large, medium, small and micro cities,” which eliminates the previous contradictions. Even if cities and towns are interpreted in broad sense, urbanization includes both cities and towns; alternatively, townization includes both towns and cities. So far for the condition of China, strategy of “urbanization”is more scientific and rational than that of townization, because to take urbanization as the strategic option emphasizes the prior development of big cities with no exclusion of the development of medium or small cities and administrative towns. The only difference lies in the fact that the identity change of migrant workers into town residents is at the preliminary stage of urbanization in broad sense, which calls for larger population migrated and integrated in large and medium cities. Particular towns such as Chengguan towns, central towns and key towns can be developed into small or medium cities. In terms of the final realization of urbanization, it is sure that more and more people will gather in large cities, and more and more towns will develop into cities. If the concept of townization is employed, the identities of agriculturally transferred population should alter into both citizens and town residents. Also, there will be an increasing demand for changes of large and small towns, which will inevitably result in the over-establishment of small towns with large agriculturally transferred population remained, as well as the considerable degradation of the quality of urbanization[3]. In addition, urban agglomeration or metropolitan regions instead of town agglomeration or town groups are mentioned in discussion on ways and layouts of urbanization or townization regardless of official contexts or academic fields; farmers and citizens instead of farmers and towners are parallel in discussion on relations between urban and rural residents; citizenization instead of townerization of migrant workers and rural residents is stressed in discussion on the essence of new human-oriented townization. Lastly, since “urban”involves the meanings of both city and town[4], towns in many countries have smaller population, some of which even lack the administrative systems of towns. “Urbanization”merely indicates the transfer and integration of population to city. China has set up administrative towns, many of which possess relatively similar population with that of small cities in foreign countries. The population in China hence transfers to not only cities, but towns as well, which can be regarded as one of the features of townization with Chinese characteristics. In order to show such differences from foreign countries, “urbanization”is thus named as “townization”in China (Gu, 1991; Jian et al., 2010). Such view needs further discussion. On one hand, though the interpretation of the word “urban” contains the scopes of both city and town in Oxford Advanced Learner’s English-Chinese Dictionary, many other authoritative dictionaries merely explain the word as “of city,” “urban life”and “urban area[5].”It seems that different interpretations in different English dictionaries cannot be regarded as the basis of interpreting “urbanization”in China as “townization[6].”On the other hand, “urbanization”is interpreted as the process of changes into cities in foreign countries, whereas it is explained as townization in China. There is no 290 CPE 2,2 necessity to interpret the same concept into different words if the two shares the same meaning; or, it is not comparable under Chinese and foreign cultures and even causes misunderstanding and confusion for foreign scholars if urbanization and townization are distinct concepts. 2. The basic status of urbanization in China 2.1 The level and rate of urbanization is relatively low In 1978, the 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set the guideline of focusing on economic modernization. Since then, China has witnessed rapid development of economy and urbanization. Based on official statistics, from 1982 to 2018, the proportion of China’s permanent urban population increased from 21.13 to 59.58 percent, with a growth of 38.45 percentage points. At the end of 2018, China’s permanent urban population reached 831.37m, which is 3.88 times larger than that of the early stage of reform and opening up. However, the level of urbanization in China is still relatively low. According to the 2018 statistics published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, in 2017, the average UR was 54.8 percent for the whole world, 81.3 percent for high-income countries and 52 percent for middle-income countries[7]. At present, China’s UR in terms of permanent population is higher than the world average, but lower than that of the USA (82.1 percent), Germany (77.3 percent), Japan (91.5 percent), Russia (74.3 percent), Brazil (86.3 percent) and South Africa (65.9 percent)[8]. From 1949 to 2018, China’s UR increased by an average of only 0.7 percentage points every year, which is undoubtedly a very low figure. Among them, from 1949 to 1978, China’s UR only increased from 10.64 to 17.92 percent with an average annual growth of 0.25 percentage points in 30 years. Even if examining the UR in the 36 years from 1982[9] to 2018 when China witnessed both rapid economic growth and improvement of urbanization level, the annual increase is only 1.07 percentage points[10], which is still lower than the UR of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries and regions at similar historical periods of time. From 1940 to 1970 after the Second World War, the UR in Japan increased from 37.7 to 72.1 percent, with an average annual increase of 1.15 percentage points in 30 years[11]. The high-speed economic development of South Korea began in the 1960s. From 1970 to 1985, the UR of South Korea increased from 41.2 to 65.4 percent. That is to say, the urbanization level of South Korea increased by 24.2 percentage points in 15 years, with an average annual increase of 1.61 percentage points[12]. During the period of economic take-off, the urbanization level in Taiwan increased from 50.2 percent in 1960 to 78.3 percent in 1985, increasing by 28.1 percentage points in 25 years, with an average annual increase of 1.12 percentage points[13]. As shown in the above statistics, it is found that compared with developed countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, the level of urbanization in China is not high but low, and the speed of urbanization is not fast but slow. 2.2 The UR of registered population is lower that of residential population Registered urban population refers to the urban residents with “non-agricultural registered residence,”as opposed to the rural population with “agricultural registered residence.”This dual system of household registration is a unique system of population management in China, which aims to control the transfer of rural population to cities and the resulted growth of urban population. Residential population is a specific concept in statistics and it is used as a statistic index in the international census of urban population. It refers to the total number of people who actually live in a certain area for a certain period of time. The US Census Bureau defines urban populations as “residents living in urban areas.”Thepopulationregistrationsystemofthe 291 Real urbanization level in China USA allows citizens to move and migrate freely, but the living conditions of citizens in the place where they move and migrate must meet the requirements of the city’s laws on health and so on. For example, they must have certain housing sizes and stable income sources. After the reform and opening up, with the adjustment of the administration system of “withdrawal of rural townships and setting of towns”and “withdrawal of counties and setting of cities (districts)[14],”as well as the separation of residents from households, the statistic method of urban population began to change from measuring the registered to the residential since 1982 so as to accurately and timely reflect the changes in the total number and structure of urban population in China. The third census conducted in 1982 defined urban population as the residential population (including both non-agricultural and agricultural population) living in the jurisdiction of cities and towns, whereas the rest of the population were rural population. The residential population is defined as those with a residing time of six months and above, which means “the population living in urban or rural areas for more than six months (or the population living in the areas for less than six months, but leaving household registration areas for more than six months) are recorded as residential population.”After that, the basic definition of urban residential population has not changed. The dual system of household registration for urban and rural areas in China caused a huge difference between the URs, respectively, based on the statistics of urban registered population and residential population. As shown in Figure 1, from 1982 to 2018, the UR of residential population increased from 21.13 to 59.58 percent, with a growth of 37.45 percentage points. However, the UR of registered population only increased from 17.6 to 43.37 percent, with a growth of 25.77 percentage points only. Although the URs measured, respectively, by the standards of registered population and residential population show the similar variation trend, there are differences in terms of absolute changes. The UR calculated by the proportion of residential population was significantly higher than that of registered population, with a difference of 16.21 percent in 2018. This means that 226m rural migrant workers and their families without household registration in cities and towns were falsely “urbanized.”Although they were regarded as urban population, they did not actually enjoy the welfare in health care, employment, education, social security and housing as urban registered population because of the existence of the dual system of household registration. The “dual system of household registration”makes the rural migrant population unable to enjoy the same social welfare as the urban population, which brings serious social and economic problems. According to the statistics, there are 36m migrant children, 61m leftbehind children, 50m left-behind women, 50m left-behind elders[15] and the spring festival 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Unit (%) The urbanization rate of residential population The urbanization rate of registered population Source: State Statistical Bureau: China Statistical Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook on its Population and Employment Figure 1. Urbanization rates calculated by the proportion of residential and registered population 292 CPE 2,2 travel rush of around 3bn trips that has plagued the government for years. These problems to some extent are due to the fact that these semi-urbanized people cannot adapt themselves to the environment in cities. 2.3 The rate of urbanization is lower than the rate of townization Moreover, due to the one-sided promotion of policies of developing small towns and encouraging farmers to stay close to their hometowns, the urban residential population also includes more than 300m residents living in counties and other administrative towns. It is undoubted that the UR in terms of population living in cities will be much lower than that in terms of population living in both cities and towns. In 2017, there were 661 cities and 21,116 towns in China. The urban population is different on the basis of different statistic methods, with the UR calculated by the population living in cities far lower than the townization rate calculated by the population living in both cities and towns. The UR calculates the proportion of urban residential population living in 661 cities to the nation-wide population, whereas the townization rate calculates the proportion of urban residential population living in 661 cities together with 340m urban residents living in 20,000 towns nationwide. Deducting 340m urban residents from the total urban population, the UR will be only 34 percent, and excluding the urban population living in non-capital towns, the UR will only reach 45 percent. Consider that more than 200m migrant workers and their families are still in the state of “semi-urbanization”despite being included in the residential urban population, China’s real UR will be further lowered. That is to say, urban population in a broad sense is significantly larger than that in a narrow sense. Specifically, the quality of urban population in a broad sense, due to the lower level of economic and social development in counties and towns than that in cities, is generally below the quality of urban population in a narrow sense. Therefore, regarding urbanization in a broad sense, the dominant strategy of China’s economic and social development of urbanization will overestimate the level of urbanization of China against the global situation. 3. The measure of real UR in China[16] Both the statistic method of measuring UR based on the residential population and that based on the registered population cannot accurately reflect the real level of urbanization: on one hand, although some of the transferring agricultural population live and work in cities and are included in the urban residential population, the dual system of household registration caused their household registration remains in the countryside. Therefore, if urban population is limited to the registered population living in urban areas, the urbanization level will to some extent be underestimated. On the other hand, although rural migrant workers and their family members live and work in cities for a long time, they cannot enjoy the same welfare as urban registered population. For this reason, the townization rate calculated by urban residential population overestimates the urbanization level in our country, hence inaccurate measurement and inflated UR. Therefore, the statistical measurement of China’s urban population can neither take the registered population approach nor the residential approach in general. These two approaches can only measure some but miss other factors and they go to extremes; thus, they cannot accurately measure the number of urban population. This section intends to find a balanced statistical approach regarding the above two approaches, so as to accurately measure the real level of urbanization in China. 3.1 The definition of real urban population Urban population is neither a population which is artificially designated nor it is a permanent concept. It is a group of people who really enjoy urban welfare with the change of 293 Real urbanization level in China resource allocation. The agglomeration effect of cities leads to continuous population gathering. The essence of urbanization is to share the benefits of urban infrastructure and public services. Therefore, the existence of urban population is inseparable from urban public facilities and services. Urban population is a dynamic concept, which varies constantly with the flow of population. The definition of urban population depends on the characteristics that distinguish city from countryside. Cities enjoy agglomeration effect. This is because the sharing of high-quality infrastructure and high-level public services in cities brings about the improvement of production efficiency and living standards. Therefore, the analysis of differences between urban and rural population should also be made from this perspective, that is, urban population should be defined and measured based on the quality of life and welfare level. According to Kirkby (1985), “as long as a group of people have a living standard and way of life which is equal to that of residents in cities and towns, they should be included in the urban population.”This understanding of urban population not only reflects its practical significance, but also makes our country’s statistic method of urban population compatible with the international standard. In 2012, the State Council’s government work report pointed out that “the direction of China’s future urbanization is to promote the citizenization of rural migrant workers and gradually extend basic urban public services to cover rural migrant workers.”Thus, the distinction between urban and rural population is characterized by urban public services. This paper argues that a group of people, as long as they enjoy urban public infrastructure and services, should be included into the urban population in a certain proportion. To sum up, this paper defines urban population as “the entire population working in non-agricultural industries and fully enjoying urban public infrastructure and public services, and their families.”Because it is based on reality and reflects the actual difference between urban and rural population, the present paper names the urban population under this definition as “real urban population.” 3.2 The formula for calculating the real urban population According to the definition of real urban population given in the present paper, urban population should be composed of two groups, as shown in Figure 2. The real urban population includes the registered urban population and the non-registered residential Rural migrant population Non-agricultural registered population Figure 2. The composition of real urban population 294 CPE 2,2 from 2013 to 2015, we can find the housing expenditure of rural migrant workers from 2012 to 2015, but there is no statistical data of other years. Based on the investigation of data available, it is found that the housing expenditure of rural migrant workers accounts for 15.5 percent of their income[20]. Hence, we estimate the housing expenditure of rural migrant workers in other years according to the proportion of 15.5 percent of the per capita income in those years. Specific data are shown in Table IV. We define the citizenization degree of residence of rural migrant worker as arithmetic mean of the difference in the eligibility for security housing and the difference in housing expenditure between rural migrant workers and urban registered population. Its equation is as follows: aS2¼1 2aS2:2þaS2:2 ðÞ:(4) Type Supply object Application standard Public rental housing Having the registered permanent residence in Beijing or moving to Beijing from other provinces or cities to work continuously and steadily for a certain number of years, and the family income and housing conditions meet the prescribed standards d (1) Families waiting for low-rent housing, affordable housing, commercial housing with limited price (2) The applicants must have the local household registration and their per capita housing area must be equal to or less than 15 m 2 ; the annual income of the family of three or less than three members must be equal to or less than RMB 100,000, and the annual income of the family of 4 or more than four members must be equal to or less than RMB 130,000 (3) Migrant workers from other provinces or cities must have a stable job in Beijing for a certain number of years, and their family income must meet above standards. They must provide the certificate of temporary residence for the same period, the certificate of payment of housing accumulation fund or certificate of social insurance. Their family members (including themselves) cannot have house in this city Notes: a Measures for the management of affordable housing in Beijing (trial); b measures for the Management of commercial housing with limited price in Beijing (trial); c measures for the management of low-rent housing in Beijing”; d measures for the management of application, examination and allocation of public rental housing in Beijing Table III. Year Rural migrant workers Urban residents Differences in housing expenditure (%) 2008 2,492 1,145.4 45.96 2009 2,636 1,228.9 46.63 2010 3,143 1,332.1 42.38 2011 3,811 1,405.0 36.87 2012 4,280 1,484.3 34.68 2013 5,436 1,579.9 29.06 2014 5,340 1,625.6 30.44 2015 5,700 1,665.9 29.23 2016 6,092 1,810.4 29.72 2017 6,482 1,986.8 30.65 2018 6,921 2,112.3 a 30.52 Note: a The cash expenditure of residents’housing expenditure in 2018 is estimated, based on the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents in 2018 and the proportion of housing expenditure in previous years Sources: State Statistical Bureau (2013–2018) Table IV. Differences in housing expenditure between rural migrant workers and urban residents (unit: RMB) 301 Real urbanization level in China The citizenization degrees of residence of rural migrant workers from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table V. From 2008 to 2018, the citizenization degree of residence of rural migrant workers in China was about 30 percent, but showed a downward trend. 3.3.3 Degree of citizenization of social security. The degree of citizenization of rural migrant workers’social security is measured by two indicators: the difference of coverage rate of social insurance and the difference of minimum subsistence allowance. The coverage rate of social insurance includes the coverage rate of endowment insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, work-related injury insurance and maternity insurance. The coverage rates of social insurance of rural migrant workers and urban registered population in China from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table VI. We use the ratio between the coverage rates of social security for the rural migrant workers and the urban registered population, that is α S3.1 , to show the average difference between rural migrant workers and urban registered population in terms of the coverage rate of endowment insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, work-related injury insurance and maternity insurance. The values of the difference between rural migrant workers and urban registered population from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table VII. We use the ratio between the minimum subsistence allowances for the rural migrant workers and the urban registered population, that is α S3.2 , to show the difference between rural migrant workers and urban registered population in terms of the minimum subsistence allowance. The values of the difference of minimum subsistence allowance between rural migrant workers and urban registered population from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table VIII. We define the degree of citizenization of migrant workers’social security as the arithmetic mean of the difference of coverage rate of social security and the difference of minimum subsistence allowance between rural migrant workers and urban residents, which is expressed by the equation as follows: aS3¼1 2aS3:1þaS3:2 ðÞ:(5) Through calculation in Tables VII and VIII, the coefficients of citizenization degree of migrant workers’social security from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table IX. Year Difference in the eligibility for security housing Difference in housing expenditure α S2.3 Coefficient of citizenization degree of residence aS2¼1=2  aS2:1þaS2:2 ðÞ 2008 25 45.96 35.48 2009 25 46.63 35.82 2010 25 42.38 33.69 2011 25 36.87 30.94 2012 25 34.68 29.84 2013 25 29.06 27.03 2014 25 30.44 27.72 2015 25 29.23 27.12 2016 25 29.72 27.36 2017 25 30.65 27.83 2018 25 30.52 27.76 Table V. Citizenization degree of residence of rural migrant workers (unit: percent) 302 CPE 2,2 Endowment insurance Medical insurance Unemployment insurance Work-related injury insurance Maternity insurance Year Migrant workers Urban residents Migrant workers Urban residents Migrant workers Urban residents Migrant workers Urban residents Migrant workers Urban residents 2008 9.8 51.7 13.1 46.7 3.7 35.9 24.1 29.3 2.0 29.1 2009 7.6 53.2 12.2 49.2 3.9 35.6 21.8 29.9 2.4 33.2 2010 9.5 55.9 14.3 51.3 4.9 32.8 24.1 28.4 2.9 33.5 2011 13.9 60.0 16.7 52.8 8.0 33.2 23.6 30.3 5.6 34.7 2012 14.3 61.9 16.9 53.5 8.4 33.6 24.0 31.9 6.1 36.9 2013 15.7 63.2 17.6 53.6 9.1 33.2 28.5 33.1 6.6 38.2 2014 16.7 64.9 17.6 53.5 10.5 33.0 26.2 33.8 7.8 37.9 2015 20.1 64.9 18.6 52.9 15.2 32.4 27 34.5 8.9 40.5 2016 21.1 67.2 17.1 52.4 16.5 32.4 26.7 34.7 9.9 41.9 2017 21.6 68.9 21.7 52.5 17.1 32.7 27.2 35.1 11.0 43.3 2018 23.8 71.6 21.1 54.3 17.9 34.2 28.3 36.4 12.0 44.7 Source: Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Human Resources and Social Security (2008–2017) (the data of coverage rate of maternity insurance from 2015 to 2017 and the relevant data in 2018 are estimated values) Table VI. Social insurance coverage rate of migrant workers and urban residents (unit: percent) 303 Real urbanization level in China The above analysis shows that the degree of citizenization of rural migrant workers’social security has generally increased in the past nine years, rising from 34.69 percent in 2008 to 57.64 percent in 2018, with an average annual increase of around 2.3 percentage points. Year Endowment insurance Medical insurance Unemployment insurance Work-related injury insurance Maternity insurance Difference of the coverage rate of social security 2008 19.0 28.1 10.3 82.3 6.9 29.3 2009 14.3 24.8 11.0 72.9 7.2 26.0 2010 17.0 27.9 14.9 84.9 8.7 30.7 2011 23.2 31.6 24.1 77.9 16.1 34.6 2012 23.1 31.6 25.0 75.2 16.5 34.3 2013 24.8 32.8 27.4 86.1 17.3 37.7 2014 25.7 32.9 31.8 77.5 20.6 37.7 2015 31.0 35.2 46.9 78.3 22.0 42.7 2016 31.4 32.6 50.9 76.9 23.8 43.1 2017 31.4 41.3 52.3 77.5 25.4 45.6 2018 33.3 38.9 52.3 77.8 26.9 45.8 Table VII. Difference in the coverage rates of social security between rural migrant workers and urban registered population (unit: percent) Year Rural migrant workers Urban residents Differences in minimum subsistence allowances (%) 2008 82.3 205.3 40.09 2009 100.8 227.8 44.25 2010 117.0 251.2 46.58 2011 143.2 287.6 49.79 2012 172.3 330.1 52.20 2013 202.8 373.0 54.37 2014 231.4 411.0 56.30 2015 264.8 451.1 58.70 2016 312.0 494.6 63.08 2017 358.3 540.6 66.28 2018 402.8 579.7 69.48 Sources: State Statistical Bureau (2017), Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Social Service (2017) and Quarterly Report of Civil Administration Statistics (2018, 4th quarter) Table VIII. Difference of minimum subsistence allowances between rural migrant workers and urban registered population (unit: RMB/person, month) Year Differences of coverage rate of social insurance α S3.1 Differences of minimum subsistence allowances α S3.2 Coefficient of citizenization degree of social security aS3 ¼1=2  aS3:1þaS3:2 ðÞ 2008 29.3 40.09 34.69 2009 26.0 44.25 35.14 2010 30.7 46.58 38.62 2011 34.6 49.79 42.19 2012 34.3 52.20 43.24 2013 37.7 54.37 46.03 2014 37.7 56.30 45.09 2015 42.7 58.70 50.70 2016 43.1 63.08 53.09 2017 45.6 66.28 55.94 2018 45.8 69.48 57.64 Table IX. Citizenization degree of rural migrant workers’social security (unit: percent) 304 CPE 2,2 3.3.4 Degree of citizenization of children’s education. The citizenization degree of children’s education of migrant workers is measured by two indicators: the difference of difficulty in school enrollment and the difference of education cost. We use the ratio between the two rates of public school enrollment for children of migrant workers and of urban registered population, that is α S4.1 , to represent the difference of school enrollment difficulty between rural migrant workers and urban registered population. Some scholars conducted surveys on cities with a large migrant population in China, andtheresultsshowedthatmostofthemigrantworkers’children are enrolled in public schools (Lei, 2007; Han, 2006; Nanjing Municipal Statistical Bureau, 2008; Tian and Wu, 2010; Research Group on Investigation of Education and Database Construction of Children of Rural Migrant Workers in China, 2010). The research data on the situation of education of rural migrant workers’children in 2007 given by different scholars are summarized in Table X. According to the results of the 16 cities mentioned above, the average rate of public school enrollment for rural migrant workers’children in China was 63 percent in 2007. In recent years, with more attention being paid to the education of rural migrant workers’ children, a growing number of children of rural migrant workers were enrolled in public schools. According to the statistics given by Ministry of Education, by the end of 2018, 80 percent of rural migrant workers’children have been enrolled in public schools and 7.5 percent have enjoyed the services of private school bought by government in the stage of compulsory education, all being included in the allowance of public funds per student and the policy of two exemptions and one subsidy. As a result, the sum of these two types of schooling was close to the proportion of public school enrollment in the stage of compulsory education[21]. From 2007 to 2018, the percentage of public school enrollment for migrant workers’ children increased from 63 to 87.5 percent[22], with the average annual increase of 2.23 percentage points. Based on this speed of growth, this paper estimates that from 2008 to 2018, the rates of public school enrollment of rural migrant workers’children were 65.23, 67.46, 69.69, 71.92, 74.15, 76.38, 78.61, 80.84, 83.07, 85.30 and 87.53 percent, respectively. City Public schools Private schools and others Beijing 62.0 38.0 Shanghai 53.9 46.1 Hangzhou 68.4 31.6 Yiwu 37.8 62.2 Zhengzhou 81.3 18.7 Chengdu 58.2 41.8 Guangzhou 28.0 72.0 Shenzhen 40.0 60.0 Dongguan 26.9 73.1 Chongqing 75.6 24.4 Golmud 54.8 45.2 Urumchi 95.0 5.0 Shenyang 100.0 0.0 Nanjing 85.0 15.0 Zhuhai 55.2 44.8 Shijiazhuang 100.0 0.0 Xiamen 49 51 Sources: Lei (2007), Nanjing Municipal Statistical Bureau (2008), Han (2006), Tian and Wu (2010) and Research Group on Investigation of Education and Database Construction of Children of Rural Migrant Workers in China (2010) Table X. Proportion of public school enrollment for migrant workers’ children (unit: percent) 305 Real urbanization level in China For urban registered population, their children have no difficulty in entering public schools, so we set their public school enrollment rate as 100 percent[23] ; thus, the enrollment rate of migrant workers’children in public schools is equal to α S4.1 ; that is, from 2008 to 2018, the α S4.1 values are 65.23, 67.46, 69.69, 71.92, 74.15, 76.38, 78.61, 80.84, 83.07, 85.30 and 87.53 percent, respectively. The difference of education cost is represented by α S4.2 . The cost of compulsory education includes the tuition and miscellaneous fees and sponsorship fees (or temporary schooling fees). From the beginning of the Autumn semester of 2008, all tuition and miscellaneous fees for students of compulsory education in cities were exempted nationwide. However, sponsorship fees or temporary schooling fees were set in order to reduce the occupation of local education resources for migrant workers’children entering schools across regions. The cost of sponsorship fees or temporary schooling fees was based on household registration and only targeted non-registered population. In 2010, the monitoring survey on migrant population conducted by the National Population and Family Planning Commission showed that 25.7 percent of migrant workers’ children aged between 6 and 14 years in school need to pay sponsorship fees or temporary schooling fees, with an average payment of RMB 3,835 (Department of Service and Management of Migrant Population of National Population and Family Planning Commission, 2011). Since the sponsorship fees or temporary schooling fees are levied on the non-registered population, urban registered residents need not to pay these fees. The difference of education cost between the children of migrant workers and children of urban residents is 74.3 percent, that is α S4.2 ¼74.3 percent[24]. We define the coefficient of citizenization degree of children’s education for migrant workers as the arithmetic mean of the difference of difficulty in school enrollment and education cost between children of migrant workers and children of urban residents. Its equation is as follows: aS4¼1 2aS4:1þaS4:2 ðÞ:(6) Plugging in relevant data, the citizenization degrees of education for migrant workers’ children in China from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table XI. As can be seen from Table XI, from 2008 to 2018, the citizenization degree of children’s education of migrant workers has been greatly improved from 69.77 to 89.92 percent, with Year Difference of difficulty in school enrollment α S4.1 Difference in education cost α S4.2 Coefficient of citizenization degree of children’s education aS4¼1=2  aS4:1þaS4:2 ðÞ 2008 65.23 74.3 69.77 2009 67.46 74.3 70.88 2010 69.69 74.3 72.00 2011 71.92 74.3 73.11 2012 74.15 74.3 74.23 2013 76.38 74.3 75.34 2014 78.61 74.3 76.46 2015 80.84 74.3 77.57 2016 83.07 74.3 78.69 2017 85.30 74.3 79.80 2018 87.53 74.3 80.92 Table XI. Citizenization degrees of children’s education for migrant workers (unit: percent) 306 CPE 2,2 an increase of about 11.15 percentage points and an average annual increase of 1.1 percentage points. 3.3.5 Degree of citizenization of civil rights. The degree of citizenization of migrant workers’civil rights depends on the difference of the right to political participation and the difference of right to vote and to be voted. We use α S5.1 to represent the difference of the right to political participation of migrant workers. The number of migrant workers who have awareness of political participation and often participate in politics is small. And their political participation is characterized by narrow scope, monotonous content, and low level and frequency. It is difficult to calculate the difference of the right to political participation between migrant workers and urban registered population with corresponding data, so the present paper uses the qualitative method to assign values. Assuming that right to political participation of urban citizens is 1 and that of migrant workers is 0.5, the degree of relative difference is α S5.1 ¼50 percent. The right to vote and to be voted is one of the most basic rights of Chinese citizens to participate in state administration. The National People’s Congress is the organ of supreme power in China. Therefore, this paper uses the election of NPC deputies by migrant workers and urban citizens to present their right to vote and to be voted and uses α S5.2 to represent the difference in the rights to vote and to be voted between them based on the difference in the proportion of deputies to the people’s congresses in urban and rural areas[25]. The number of rural deputies to the National People’s Congress and their proportion in the total rural population, and the number of urban deputies to the National People’s Congress and their proportion in the total urban population are shown in Table XII[26]. From the 1st to 13th National People’s Congress, the difference in the proportion between urban and rural deputies increased from 0.95 to 24.21 percent. Farmers’right to vote and to be voted has been guaranteed continuously, but there is still a huge gap between them and the urban population in this regard. During five years from the 11th National People’s Congress held in 2008 to the 12th National People’s Congress, the difference in the proportion of deputies to National People’s Congress between urban and rural areas increased from 4.49 to 8.65 percent, with an average annual increase of 0.832 percentage. During another five years from the 12th National People’s Congress to the 13th National People’s Congress, the difference in the proportion of deputies to National People’s Congress between urban and rural areas increased from 8.65 to 24.12 percent, with an average annual increase of 3.112 percentage. According to the average growth speed during these two periods, the differences of the right to vote and to be voted between migrant workers and urban citizens in China from 2008 to 2018 were 4.49, 5.32, 6.15, 6.99, 7.82, 8.65, 11.76, 14.87, 17.99, 21.10 and 24.21 percent, respectively. We define the citizenization degree of migrant workers’civil rights as the arithmetic mean of the difference of right to political participation and the difference of right to vote and to be voted between migrant workers and urban registered population, which can be expressed as: aS5¼1 2aS5:1þaS5:2 ðÞ:(7) The degrees of citizenization of migrant workers’civil rights from 2008 to 2018 are shown in Table XIII. It can be inferred from Table XIII that during the 10 years from 2008 to 2018, the degree of citizenization of migrant workers’civil rights in China increased from 27.25 to 37.11 percent, with an increase of about 9.9 percentage points and an average annual increase of 0.99 percentage points. However, although the degree of citizenization of 307 Real urbanization level in China Number of rural deputies (person) Proportion of rural deputies in the total rural population a (%) Number of urban deputies (person) Proportion of urban deputies in the total urban population b (%) Differences in the proportion of deputies to National People’s Congresses (%) 1st session 63 0.000012 1,163 0.001260 0.95 2nd session 67 0.000012 1,159 0.000854 1.41 3rd session 209 0.000036 2,831 0.002424 1.49 4th session 662 0.000085 2,223 0.001557 5.46 5th session 720 0.000089 2,777 0.001823 4.88 6th session 348 0.000041 2,630 0.001431 2.87 7th session 308 c 0.000036 2,662 0.001180 3.05 8th session 280 0.000031 2,698 0.001037 2.99 9th session 240 0.000026 2,739 0.000899 2.89 10th session 551 0.000062 2,434 0.000650 9.54 11th session 246 d 0.000028 2,741 0.000623 4.49 12th session 401 0.000046 2,586 0.000532 8.65 13th session 468 0.000077 2,512 0.000318 24.21 Notes: a In the calculation of the proportion of farmers’representatives to the rural population, the total rural population is calculated by the number of registered rural population at the end of the year when the People’s Congress was held; b in the calculation of the proportion of urban representatives in the urban population, the total urban population is calculated by the number of registered urban population at the end of the year when the People’s Congress was held; c because the delegation structure of the seventh session of the National People’s Congress published by People’s Daily only depicted representatives of workers and farmers, without a separate list of representatives of farmers, the present paper calculates the number of farmers’representatives in the seventh session of the National People’s Congress by averaging the proportion of farmers’ representatives to the representatives of workers and farmers to the previous and following sessions of the National People’s Congress; d according to “Analysis of the Characteristics of Representatives to the 12th National People’s Congress”by Xinhua News Agency, there are 401 front-line workers and farmers, accounting for 13.42 percent of the total number of representatives, with 5.18 percentage points higher than the 11th National People’s Congress. Because the actual number of workers’and farmers’representatives in the 11th session has not been found, the figure here is obtained by multiplying the total number of representatives with the proportion of workers’and farmers’representatives Sources:People’s Daily (1999), State Statistical Bureau (2013), Analysis of the Characteristics of Deputies to the 12th National People’s Congress by the Xinhua News Agency and Report on the Condition of Election of Deputies to the 13th National People’s Congress, General Office of the Standing Committee of NPC Table XII. Difference in the proportion of deputies to National People’s Congress between urban and rural areas Year Difference of right to political participation α S5.1 Difference of right to vote and to be voted α S5.2 Coefficient of the citizenization degree of migrant workers’civil rights aS2 ¼1=2  aS5:1þaS5:2 ðÞ 2008 50 4.49 27.25 2009 50 5.32 27.66 2010 50 6.15 28.08 2011 50 6.99 28.50 2012 50 7.82 28.91 2013 50 8.65 29.33 2014 50 11.76 30.88 2015 50 14.87 32.44 2016 50 17.99 34.00 2017 50 21.10 35.55 2018 50 24.21 37.11 Table XIII. Coefficients of citizenization degree of migrant workers’ civil rights (unit: percent) 308 CPE 2,2 migrant workers’civil rights has been improved rapidly in the past five years, its level is still low. After the calculation of the citizenization degrees of migrant workers in terms of employment, residence, social security, children’s education and civil rights, we can estimate the citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public services in China. Assuming that the weights of the above five indicators are the same, the arithmetic mean of the above five indicators will indicate the citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public services in China from 2008 to 2018, as shown in Table XIV. It can be seen from Table XIV that from 2008 to 2018, the citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public services in China has steadily increased from 45.44 to 52.69 percent, with an increase of 7.25 percentage points. The citizenization degree in public services of slightly over 50 percent indicates that more than half of migrant workers in China can enjoy the social welfare level as urban populationintermsofpublicservices. Next, we calculate the mean of citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public facilities and the citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public services, as shown in equation: a¼1 21þaS ðÞ:(8) Calculation reveals that the degrees of citizenization of migrant workers in China from 2008 to 2018 are 72.72, 72.95, 73.24, 73.47, 73.62, 73.77, 74.02, 74.78, 75.31, 75.91 and 76.34 percent, respectively. By plugging the data of the citizenization degree of migrant workers into the equation (Equation (1)), we can find that the real UR of China from 2008 to 2018 is between the UR of registered population and that of residing population, as shown in Table XV. The results of three measuring methods of UR can also be shown in Figure 3. As can be identified from Table XV, during the 10 years from 2008 to 2018, the UR of registered population increased by 10.09 percentage points, the UR of residing population increased by 12.59 percentage points, and the real UR increased by 12.50 percentage points. Compared with the other two officially announced URs, the growth of real UR is slightly lower than that of UR of residing population but substantially higher than that of registered population, which helps to correct the overestimated result of the UR of residing population Year Employment α S1 Residence α S2 Social security α S3 Children’s education α S4 Civil right α S5 Coefficient of citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public services aS¼1=5  aS1 þaS2 þaS3 þaS4 þaS5 ðÞ 2008 60 35.48 34.69 69.77 27.25 45.44 2009 60 35.82 35.14 70.88 27.66 45.90 2010 60 33.69 38.62 72.00 28.08 46.48 2011 60 30.94 42.19 73.11 28.50 46.95 2012 60 29.84 43.24 74.23 28.91 47.24 2013 60 27.03 46.03 75.34 29.33 47.55 2014 60 27.72 45.09 76.46 30.88 48.03 2015 60 27.12 50.70 77.57 32.44 49.57 2016 60 27.36 53.09 78.69 34.00 50.63 2017 60 27.83 55.94 79.80 35.55 51.82 2018 60 27.76 57.64 80.92 37.11 52.69 Table XIV. Coefficients of citizenization degree of migrant workers in accessing public services (unit: percent) 309 Real urbanization level in China and the underestimated result of the UR of registered population in terms of absolute value and can more accurately measure the urbanization status quo and its trend in China. From 2008 to 2018, the coefficient of degree of citizenization in China increased from 72.72 to 76.34 percent, with an average annual increase of 0.36 percentage points. The continuous increase of degree of citizenization of rural migrant workers indicates that the living quality and welfare of rural migrant workers in China are getting closer to that of urban registered population, which lifts the real urbanization level. The measurement of real UR does more than the simple statistical calculation of residing or registered population, and it also takes into consideration the real situation of population, therefore it is a more scientific method to measure urbanization level. 3.4 International comparison of UR The level of urbanization is closely related to the level of economic development. According to the classic s-type urbanization model, in the early stage of economic development, UR grows slowly with the increase of per capita income, followed by a period of rapid growth. When per capita income reaches a high level, the growth speed of urbanization will slow down again. Todaro and Smith (2009) point out that “the positive relationship between UR and per capita income is one of the most obvious and significant characteristics in the process of development.”Typically, countries with high per capita incomes are among the highest urbanized countries in the world. Year Urbanization rate of registered population Urbanization rate of residing population Real urbanization rate 2008 33.28 46.99 43.25 2009 33.77 48.34 44.40 2010 34.17 49.95 45.73 2011 34.71 51.27 46.88 2012 35.29 52.57 48.01 2013 35.72 53.72 49.00 2014 36.27 54.77 49.96 2015 39.90 56.10 52.01 2016 41.20 57.35 53.36 2017 42.35 58.52 54.62 2018 43.37 59.58 55.75 Table XV. Real urbanization rate in China (unit: percent) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Urbanization rate of registered population Urbanization rate of residing population Real urbanization rate Figure 3. Comparison of different measuring methods of urbanization rate (unit: percent) 310 CPE 2,2 Nanjing Municipal Statistical Bureau (2008), “Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development of Nanjing in 2007”, available at: www.jssb.gov.cn/jstj/djgb/sxndtjgb/200805/t200 80509_102740.htm (accessed December 20, 2017). 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State Statistical Bureau (2017), China Civil Administration Statistical Yearbook, China Statistics Press, Beijing. Sun, R. and Yuan, L.L. (2013), “Current situation and countermeasures of public service in economically developed towns in China”,South China Rural Area, Vol. 29 No. 7, pp. 22-25. Tian, H.S. and Wu, N. (2010), Research on the Education of Children of Migrant Workers Based on the Current Situation, Problems and Countermeasures of 12 Cities, Education Science Press, Beijing. Todaro, M.P. and Smith, S.C. (2009), Economic Development, 10th ed., Pearson Education, New York, NY. Wang, Q. (2008), “Theoretical deliberation on the equalization of urban and rural public services”, Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics, No. 8, pp. 12-17. Yao, G.J. (2007), Research Report on Identity Discrimination in Employment –from the Perspective of Household Registration and Regions//Cai Dingjian. Current Situation of Employment Discrimination and Countermeasures against Discrimination in China, China Social Sciences Press, Beijing. Further reading Du, J.G. and Cai, J.M. (2013), “Comparison and selection of methods of measurement of urbanization”, Contemporary Economic Research, No. 10, pp. 31-40. Kuznets (1989), The Growth of Modern Economics, Beijing University of Economics Press, Beijing. Michael, T. and Stephen, S. (2009), Developmental Economics, Machine Press, Beijing. Corresponding author Jiming Cai can be contacted at: [email protected] For instructions on how to order reprints of this article, please visit our website: www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com/licensing/reprints.htm Or contact us for further details: [email protected] 317 Real urbanization level in China