Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi

Burchi, Francesco; Roscioli, Federico Working Paper Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi Discussion Paper, No. 3/2021 Provided in Cooperation with: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), Bonn Suggested Citation: Burchi, Francesco; Roscioli, Federico (2021) : Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi, Discussion Paper, No. 3/2021, ISBN 978-3-96021-140-2, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, https://doi.org/10.23661/dp3.2021 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/228836 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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Mixed-Methods Evidence from Malawi Francesco Burchi Federico Roscioli Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi Francesco Burchi Federico Roscioli Bonn 2021 Discussion Paper / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ISSN (Print) 1860-0441 ISSN (Online) 2512-8698 Except as otherwise noted this publication is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0). You are free to copy, communicate and adapt this work, as long as you attribute the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) and the authors. Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available on the internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de. ISBN 978-3-96021-140-2 (printed edition) DOI:10.23661/dp3.2021 Dr Francesco Burchi is a senior researcher with the research programme “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” at the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE). E-Mail: [email protected] Federico Roscioli is a coordinator of the master’s degree programme “Human Development and Food Security” at the Roma Tre University and a master’s student in “Development Economics” at the University of Florence. Email: [email protected] Published with financial support from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) © Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn +49 (0)228 94927-0 +49 (0)228 94927-130 Email: [email protected] http://www.die-gdi.de Contents Abbreviations 1 Introduction 3 2 The meaning of social cohesion 6 3 Case study: the Tingathe Economic Empowerment Project 7 4 Quantitative analysis 9 4.1 Methodology 9 4.2 Findings 11 5 Qualitative analysis 14 5.1 Methodology 14 5.2 Findings 15 6 Conclusions 21 6.1 Findings 21 6.2 Policy implications 23 References 25 Figures Figure 1: From TEEP to social cohesion 8 Tables Table 1: Descriptive statistics of social cohesion outcomes (endline survey, 2017) 10 Table 2: Estimates of the impact of project components on social cohesion 12 Table 3: Estimates of the impact of project components on social cohesion (sub-sample of training recipients that joined VSL groups) 13 Table 4: Profile and activities of the VSL groups 20 Abbreviations AEC area executive committee COMSIP Malawian Community Savings and Investment Promotion GIZ German Corporation for International Cooperation GmbH / Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit SCT social cash transfer TEEP Tingathe Economic Empowerment Project VDC village development committee VSL village savings and loans Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi Executive summary Background and aim The primary objective of social protection is to fight poverty and food insecurity. However, there are good theoretical arguments to support the idea that it can also contribute to more complex outcomes, such as social cohesion. This pap er investigates the effects of the Tingathe Economic Empowerment Project (TEEP) in Malawi on three key pillars of social cohesion, namely inclusive identity, trust and cooperation. The TEEP is a multi-component social protection scheme that targets ultra-poor and labourconstrained households. It provides three randomly selected groups of beneficiaries with three different packages: a lump-sum transfer, financial and business training connected to the creation of village savings and loans (VSL) groups, and a combination of both (comprehensive package). A sequential mixed-methods approach was employed to assess the effects of the different project components. It consists of (i) a quantitative analysis based on an experimental design and primary data collected one year after project implementation and ( ii) a qualitative analysis based on focus group discussions and individual interviews conducted three years after project implementation. Results Overall, the empirical analysis gives evidence that the type of measure taken matters for the effect of social protection on social cohesion. The study reveals no concrete effects of the lump-sum on social cohesion outcomes. In contrast, the financial and business training makes a difference for social cohesion and both the methods point to the value added of participation in VSL groups. Indeed, high intra-group trust was detected in almost all these groups and the experience of taking part in a common training that participants regarded as very valuable was viewed as a key determinant of this outcome. Moreover, members of the same VSL groups activated different forms of cooperation, for both economic and non-economic purposes. Exposure to major external shocks, however, hindered these positive effects. VSL members’ trust towards other village members (outgroup trust), instead, was low and declined. Similarly, trust towards local institutions, especially village development committees, was low. An in-depth investigation of the causes indicates that this is not related to the TEEP but to the social cash transfer (SCT) programme on whose infrastructure the TEEP rests – as their beneficiaries and administrative structure are the same. Other village members considered it unfair that VSL members received the SCT and this caused jealousy and tensions. Moreover, the members of the VSL groups felt that the local institutions excluded them from other development interventions as they were already benefiting from the SCT programme. We could not verify whether this discrimination was real (or just perceived); however, both the literature and our analysis point to the plausibility of this hypothesis. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 1 Francesco Burchi / Federico Roscioli Policy implications: The findings of this study have important policy implications. • First, policy-makers aiming to expand social cohesion should be aware of the possible limitations of simply giving cash. Indeed, targeted cash benefit programmes that are not adequately designed or implemented could hinder social cohesion. • Second, VSL groups, which are already widespread in Malawi for the middle class, can contribute to the expansion of social cohesion and, more generally, can work for the poor, too. • Third, there is a need for longer-term support from external organisations. As stressed directly by the interviewees, more external assistance would have probably allowed the re-opening of those VSL groups that had to close in 2017 due to extreme weather conditions and the delay in some SCT payments. This paper explores avenues along which the social cohesion-enhancing potential of VSL groups could be further exploited. A major dilemma is whether to open VSL groups to other village members; this could either improve or worsen social cohesion depending on the local context. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 2 1 Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi Introduction The primary objective of social protection is to reduce poverty and vulnerability (OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development], 2009). However, over the past couple of decades, the goals of social protection schemes have expanded, covering, among other things, the increase in human capital and the alleviation of nutritional deprivations. Moreover, it has often been argued that social protection can generate important effects in the political sphere. This paper contributes to this (limited) literature, focusing specifically on social cohesion. Social cohesion is a complex, multi-faceted concept and there is not much agreement on its meaning. In this paper, we endorse a recent definition that identifies three key attributes of social cohesion – namely trust, inclusive identity and cooperation – and two separate dimensions – the horizontal and the vertical (Leininger et al., forthcoming). The horizontal dimension includes the relationship between individuals or groups within a society, while the vertical dimension refers to the relationship between individuals/groups and state institutions. Both social assistance programmes, such as cash transfers and public works, and contributory schemes, such as health insurance, have the potential to improve social relations (Pavanello, Watson, Onyango-Ouma, & Bukuluki, 2016). This can happen through different channels. By increasing their employment opportunities and/or access to income, disadvantaged groups may experience a greater sense of belonging in society and improved interactions with other groups. Similarly, this can occur when social protection enables disadvantaged groups to access social services and infrastructure that were previously closed to them. However, for this to happen it is important that the social protection programme is designed with an inclusion lens through which the needs of disadvantaged groups, based on ethnicity, social class, caste, gender and age, are adequately considered (Koehler, forthcoming). The design and implementation of these programmes is crucial. Lack of transparency in the targeting of the beneficiaries, for example, can create feeling of unfairness and resentment, and thus worsen social relations (Molyneux, Jones, & Samuels, 2016). In particular, it can create conflicts between those who were selected as beneficiaries and those who were excluded but perceived to be in similar conditions (e.g., Adato, de la Briere, Mindek, & Quisumbing, 2000; Adato & Roopnaraine, 2004). Specifically, cash benefits targeted to the poor can increase stigma and thus reduce social inclusion and social cohesion when not conscientiously designed (Li & Walker, 2017; Roelen, 2017). At the same time, if these programmes are not endorsed by the parts of society that are not directly addressed by the interventions, the net effect of these programmes on social cohesion may be negative. There are also important arguments supporting the premises that social protection may affect the vertical dimension of social cohesion. When governments (both national and local) play a key role in the financing and/or management of the programme, beneficiaries can take that as a signal that the state cares about their interests (Burchi, Strupat, & von Schiller, 2020). The direct consequence is that this can increase their trust towards public institutions (Evans, Holtemeyer, & Kosec, 2019; Hunter & Sugiyama, 2014). However, citizens often have scarce information about who is actually financing and/or implementing a social protection scheme. Consequently, there is the possibility that an effective programme characterised by high national ownership would not lead to an increase in trust towards the state if the beneficiaries were unable to associate the programme with the real implementer; similarly, there could be an increase in vertical trust if the government were German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 3 Francesco Burchi / Federico Roscioli indicate to what extent they agreed with the following sentence: “If I have a problem, there is always someone to help me”. Like for the first question answers ranged from “strongly disagree” (coded “1”) to “strongly agree” (coded “4”). The fourth question asked, “Do the majority of people in this village generally have good relationships with each other?”. Precoded answers were “no” (“0”), “sometimes” (“1”) and “yes” (“2”). The first two questions refer to the attribute “trust” in the social cohesion definition provided in Section 2, while the third and fourth refer to the attribute “cooperation”. No direct question was posed with regard to the attribute “inclusive identity”.8 Moreover, all these attributes are analysed exclusively in the horizontal dimension. Thus, we cannot assess impacts on all the social cohesion outcomes illustrated in Figure 1. Four outcome variables were initially generated from the above questions as ordinal variables. In addition, for the two questions with four potential answers we created dummy variables, taking value “0” if the respondent answered “strongly disagree” or “disagree” and value “1” if the answers were “agree” or “strongly agree”. Table 1 shows the descriptive statistics for the four groups. The highest mean values are found either in the training-only group or in the lump-sum plus training group while the lowest mean value is always found either in the control group or in the lump-sum only group. Table 1: Descriptive statistics of social cohesion outcomes (endline survey, 2017) Lump-sum plus training Lump-sum only Training only Control group Most village members can be trusted 3.128 2.952 2.988 2.858 Most village members can be trusted (yes/no) 0.814 0.679 0.814 0.696 Change in trust towards village members 2.093 2.071 2.256 2.111 Receives help when they have a problem 2.953 2.892 2.977 2.830 Receives help when they have a problem (yes/no) 0.732 0.666 0.837 0.677 Majority of village members have good relationships 2.430 2.273 2.488 2.330 Number of observations 86 84 86 530 Source: Authors To assess the impacts of the different components of the TEEP on the above dependent variables we employ the econometric strategy used in Burchi and Strupat (2018). Despite the randomisation, we control for household-and beneficiary-level variables measured at the baseline. The first group includes: number of children in primary school, number of able-bodied household members, housing conditions, asset wealth index and changes in household size between baseline and endline. The second group includes: age, sex, marital status, school attendance and whether they have a chronic illness or a disability. 8 This attribute has been, instead, investigated in depth in the qualitative analysis concerning the VSL groups (see Section 5). German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 10 Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi The model includes three dummy variables indicating whether the household lives in the cluster that received only the lump-sum payment, in the cluster that received only the training or in the cluster that received both. The coefficients of these variables indicate the impacts of the different interventions. We estimate the intention-to-treat effects, that is, the effect of an offer to participate in the training, as the participation in the training is voluntary. Equation (1) represents the model estimated: 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖ℎ𝑐𝑐 = 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑐𝑐𝛽𝛽1 + 𝐿𝐿𝑐𝑐𝛽𝛽2 + 𝐿𝐿𝑐𝑐𝛽𝛽3 + 𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖ℎ𝑐𝑐𝛾𝛾 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖ℎ𝑐𝑐 (1) where 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖ℎ𝑐𝑐 indicates the social cohesion outcome of interest derived from the endline survey for respondent i of household h residing in cluster c; 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝑐𝑐 is a binary variable that indicates whether the cluster c received the lump-sum payment and the training component. 𝐿𝐿𝑐𝑐 is a binary variable that shows if the cluster received just the lump-sum payment, while 𝐿𝐿𝑐𝑐 is a binary variable that represents if the cluster received the training component. 𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖ℎ𝑐𝑐 represents the set of individual and household characteristics from the baseline survey described above, and 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖ℎ𝑐𝑐 is the standard error term. As we include all three indicators of the treatment arms, the coefficients of interest are 𝛽𝛽1, 𝛽𝛽2 and 𝛽𝛽3, which indicate the impact of the respective treatment arm compared with the control group. Given the ordinal nature of the dependent variables, we used Poisson regressions. Finally, given that randomisation took place at the village cluster level, the estimates include standard errors clustered at the village cluster level. 4.2 Findings Burchi and Strupat (2018) find that the different components of the TEEP had a positive impact on a number of dependent variables. In particular, they find that the addition of the financial and business training to the lump-sum payments generated important benefits in terms of investment in productive activities, employment opportunities, livestock ownership, food and overall consumption. On the other hand, lump-sum payments alone did not seem to generate significant improvements. Finally, the financial and business training – with or without the lump-sum – played a crucial role in increasing financial literacy, promoting savings and accessing loans. Clearly, a general improvement in the wellbeing of the beneficiaries could improve social relationships among themselves as well as between them and the other village members. Moreover, if they perceived that the national and local institutions played a key role in the design and implementation of the TEEP this could also improve their feeling of belonging to, and their willingness to cooperate with, the state (vertical dimension). However, these effects are not straightforward. In particular, the different components may have different effects on social cohesion. Here we directly examine their impacts on the social cohesion indicators illustrated in Section 4.1 (see Table 2). Some results are striking. Regardless of the specific indicators considered, households that received only the training experienced significantly higher social cohesion than households in the control group, whereas the differences between households receiving the lump-sum and those in the control group were never statistically significant. Finally, the group that received both interventions showed significantly higher trust towards village members than German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 11 Francesco Burchi / Federico Roscioli the control group (see Table 2, Column 1); however, when the same dependent variable is dichotomised, the effect is no longer significant. One possible interpretation is that the lump-sum, on the one hand, may improve social cohesion by ensuring productive inclusion and general wellbeing of the beneficiaries, but on the other hand, being a cash benefit, it may increase stigma and, thus, reduce social cohesion (Li & Walker, 2017; Roelen, 2017). This could explain the insignificant effects for the lump-sum only group. The training and participation in the VSL groups, instead, are a different form of intervention in which people have to participate actively, thus, it may improve the social status of the beneficiary – in addition to their financial and business knowledge and capacity – and, along these lines, improve social cohesion. Another possible interpretation is that, since training recipients are usually members of VSL groups, they had VSL group members mostly in mind when they answered these questions. Indeed, the literature shows that in the specific cases of the questions related to trust, respondents usually have in mind “people outside one’s familiar or kinship circles” (Mattes & Moreno, 2018). Table 2: Estimates of the impact of project components on social cohesion (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Most village members can be trusted Most village members can be trusted (no/yes) Change in trust towards village members Receives help when they have a problem Receives help when they have a problem (no/yes) Majority of village members have good relationship s Lump-sum plus training 0.268** 0.118 -0.004 0.122 0.045 0.120 (0.113) (0.076) (0.122) (0.184) (0.083) (0.144) Lump-sum only 0.098 -0.019 -0.050 0.041 -0.023 -0.059 (0.153) (0.043) (0.091) (0.177) (0.063) (0.095) Training only 0.150** 0.138** 0.131** * 0.180** * 0.201*** 0.175*** (0.067) (0.061) (0.048) (0.062) (0.035) (0.041) Control variables X X X X X X Observations 786 786 786 786 786 786 Notes: Standard errors clustered at the village-cluster level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Source: Authors The interpretation of the estimates for the lump-sum plus training group is more complex. Coefficients are positive for five of the six outcomes and always higher than those for the lump-sum only group, but significant only for the first trust variable. In general, it seems that the positive effect of this combination of interventions on possible drivers of social cohesion (Burchi & Strupat, 2018) and the direct positive contribution of participation in training/VSL groups on the social cohesion outcomes is largely offset by the mild negative direct effect of the lump-sum transfer on the same outcomes (through increase of stigma). German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 12 Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi To better understand the results above and verify the validity of our initial interpretations, we decided to dig more into the contribution of the VSL groups. In particular, we wanted to check whether it was mostly the participation in these structured groups that triggered the above results. In other words, we tried to disentangle the effect of the training from that of the participation in the VSL groups. We did so by re-running the same regressions as in Table 2, but for the training participants we focused only on those that joined the VSL groups either immediately after their creation through the TEEP or within one year. We are, however, aware that participation in the saving groups may actually be endogenous. By adding all the control variables at the baseline, we alleviate that problem, but the results should nevertheless be treated with caution and be considered only as indicative of the role of VSL groups. The results on these sub-groups are presented in Table 3. Comparing them with the previous results, we notice that for the training-only groups the coefficients are always higher and in the case of the first two variables related to trust the impacts are now significant at the 1 per cent level and no longer only at the 5 per cent level. For the lump-sum plus training group we notice an increase in the magnitude and significance of the effect on the first trust variable; moreover, the coefficient is now statistically significant (at the 5 per cent level) on the dichotomised variable. All these results point to a clear positive role of the VSL groups on social cohesion. In order to better comprehend the dynamics within these groups and their specific contribution to the different attributes of social cohesion, we carried out a qualitative analysis, which will be presented in the next section. Table 3: Estimates of the impact of project components on social cohesion (sub-sample of training recipients that joined VSL groups) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) VARIABLES Most village members can be trusted Most village members can be trusted (no/yes) Change in trust towards village members Receives help when they have a problem Receives help when they have a problem (no/yes) Majority of village members have good relationship s Lump-sum plus training 0.293*** 0.121** 0.003 0.120 0.058 0.111 (0.084) (0.052) (0.146) (0.121) (0.050) (0.122) Lump-sum only 0.088 -0.023 -0.050 0.032 -0.026 -0.065 (0.151) (0.044) (0.091) (0.175) (0.064) (0.096) Training only 0.205*** 0.177*** 0.179** * 0.221** * 0.215** * 0.218*** (0.054) (0.037) (0.051) (0.083) (0.038) (0.043) Control variables X X X X X X Observations 734 734 734 734 734 734 Notes: Standard errors clustered at the village-cluster level in parentheses. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Source: Authors German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 13 Francesco Burchi / Federico Roscioli 5 Qualitative analysis As the TEEP was successful in the creation of VSL groups in 2016, the qualitative study of 2019 aimed to understand whether any activities of these groups affected mutual trust among the group members and led to the creation of group businesses or any form of non-economic cooperation. Both factors are important attributes of social cohesion in its horizontal dimension. This study consists of a qualitative survey including focus group activities and individual interviews in order to investigate the functioning and inclusiveness of these groups. The data collection was carried out between 24 September and 1 October 2019. 5.1 Methodology The study involves all 10 VSL groups established by the TEEP in 2016 in the four clusters that received the training (two with the lump-sum and two without). Two main qualitative methods were employed: (1) a focus group activity involving open questions to the whole group and a participatory card game and (2) three individual interviews with pre-selected profiles of people. These tools are employed to help understand the multiple aspects of social cohesion. Compared with the quantitative methodology, the qualitative methodology used here allows for analysis of the phenomenon from more and different angles. Focus groups can lead to deliberative debate with participants expressing their opinions and dissenting with each other. This process allows participants to make sense of their experiences, and, in interaction with others, modify them, leading to the construction of new knowledge (Dahlin Ivanoff & Hultberg, 2006; Kitzinger, 1994). It represents a socially or culturally distinct understanding of the landscape and sheds some light on points that may have been missed in an individual interview. During this first activity, we also carried out a card game, which is a participatory method based on the premise that local inhabitants possess expert knowledge of their local environments. In the empirical literature on the capability approach, card games have been used to assess people’s capabilities and agency (Allen, Lambert, Ome, & Frediani, 2015; Frediani, Boni, & Gasper, 2014; Van Scoy et al., 2017). Card games have also been used to explore how participation in different forms of collective action – such as cooperatives and farm associations – influence the dimensions of life that people value (Burchi, De Muro, & Vicari, 2015; Burchi & Vicari, 2014; Vicari, 2014). To apply this method, 31 cards were initially drawn to indicate different aspects of the following three categories: feelings, institutions and economic activities. The aim of this exercise was to explore the three attributes of social cohesion (trust, identity and cooperation) under the horizontal and vertical dimensions. The cards were distributed to the members and discussed one by one under the guidance of a facilitator. Then, the group placed each card on a levelled board (from 1 to 10) according to their perception of the degree the problem/issue represented on the card was present in their life. As a last step, the group was asked to indicate which cards were more positively and negatively influenced by participation in the VSL group. Individual interviews focused on some specific aspects of the VSL group activity and personal lifestyle, contributing with individual experiences to the evaluation of the project. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 14 Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi They also included questions on social cohesion in line with those mentioned in Section 4.1. The questions were • Did you establish new personal contacts/friendships due to the VSL/saving group membership? • Did you have any conflicts/issues with other VSL/saving group members? • To what extent do you trust the other VSL group members? • Do you trust the people inside your VSL/saving group more than other people in your village/community? • Compared with three years ago, do you trust people in this village more, less or the same? • Do you trust your district institutions, such as the local village development committee (VDC) and area executive committee (AEC)?9,10 In each group, the three interviewees were selected based on the following criteria (where available): • a member who obtained a conspicuous loan, • a member with a problematic repayment history, and • a member who took part in a collective economic activity or carried out a successful activity made possible by the loan. The people corresponding to the above profiles were identified with the help of the group’s secretary or treasurer. We managed to interview 22 members from nine VSL groups.11 Given the limited sample size and the difference in the profiles of the respondents, a proper inference based on the data acquired through the interviews cannot be made. 5.2 Findings About three years after the creation of the VSL groups, only five of the 10 groups were still active (see Table 4). This initial finding seems to provide a hint into the limitations of the TEEP – and in particular in the training component with the associated creation of VSL groups – to enhance social cohesion in the long term, and that briberies and conflicts probably led to this result. This intuitive argument only partially explains the reality. An indepth investigation highlights how exogenous factors play a big role in the survival of the 9 A village development committee is a representative body from a group of villages responsible for identifying needs and facilitating planning and development in local communities. It is at this level that the communities raise their needs and demand projects. The VDC is composed by an elected board and directed by the group-village leader. 10 An area executive committee is composed of extension workers from both the Government and nongovernmental organisations operating in the Traditional Area. This committee is the technical arm at the area level and is responsible for advising superior institutions on all aspects of development. 11 Moreover, only 14 are from VSL groups that are still active (see Section 5.2). German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 15 Francesco Burchi / Federico Roscioli VSL groups and their impact on social cohesion. By “exogenous factors” we mean factors that are not themselves affected by the TEEP. The participating villages and southern Malawi in general are highly affected by the negative consequences of climate change. At the beginning of 2017, Mwanza was hit by major floods followed by a drought that affected the lives of the poor by destroying their houses, reducing agricultural production and raising food prices (FEWS NET, 2018a, 2018b; WorldWeatherOnline.com, 2020). Moreover, since 2017, there have been several suspensions or delays in the disbursement of the SCT. As the SCT is conventionally paid every two months, a missed instalment implies a four-month period without these transfers. Though at the end of the suspension SCT beneficiaries receive all the backlogs, not being able to access the (expected) social transfers for so long may have a major impact on the lives of people living in extreme poverty, especially in periods of climate shock. That is what happened in 2017: the extreme weather conditions followed by two missed payments between March and June reduced the resilience of the vulnerable beneficiaries and consequently that of their VSL groups. This is confirmed by the fact that two groups closed their activities for lack of money right at the end of 2017. Only sporadic cases of internal conflicts within the VSL groups were reported for the period of more than three years. Two of them arose due to stealing accusations – one was confirmed by the accused person – while the other three developed from problems in repayment. With the exception of one single case, all these conflicts happened between 2017 and the beginning of 2018. Interestingly, the VSL groups that ceased their activities between 2017 and the beginning of 2018 were all located in the clusters characterised by higher socio-economic and climatic vulnerability.12 Indeed, despite being exposed to the same external shocks, none of the four groups located in the two better-off clusters closed, while five of the six groups located in the worse-off clusters did close. This means that the interactions of the adverse exogenous conditions/shocks led to the closure of the groups: two due to lack of money (no conflicts were reported here), and three due to conflicts that probably emerged from the economic stress. Of course, endogenous factors are important, too. They entail programme-specific aspects such as the VSL group design and the typology and frequency of training. In one case in particular, the fact that the group was composed of members of two different villages caused feelings of jealousy related to the holding of the physical money and the roles/tasks inside the group. Another aspect underlined by many interviewees from different groups was that the lack of follow-up by COMSIP – the cooperative that provided the training – could have been one of the reasons for the definite ceasing of the activities of many groups between 2017 and 2018. For VSL groups that successfully overcame the climatic and economic struggles of 2017 and did not experience conflicts caused by illicit actions, trust among the group members increased. This was confirmed by the focus group activities and by all the interviewees from 12 The source of this information is a small survey conducted in October and November 2015, when we collected data on the 10 different clusters involved in the TEEP. Based on this information, for the four training receiving clusters, we find that two were significantly better off than the other two, especially in terms of distance from the main road of Mwanza, presence of trading centres and climatic conditions. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 16 Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi the active VSL groups. Group identity and in-group trust and cooperation were both drivers and outcomes of survival and resilience of the VSL groups. As an example, in one VSL group, the treasurer’s home was robbed and the group lost a huge amount of money; despite this, everyone asked the treasurer to keep working for the group and the next year they restarted all the activities from nothing. Group identity was strong in most of the groups. Both the focus group activity and the interviews clearly showed that members of the VSL groups trusted each other more than the rest of the village. They also appreciated the “social” value of the group thanks to which they made new friendships, but, above all, they highly valued the common, exclusive training they received, which was viewed as a fundamental bond among group members and which contributed to the development a “common language” (Kilpatrick, Bell, & Falk, 1999). Last but not least, respondents also reported that their joint experiences and shared struggles over more than three years strengthened their identity as a group. The members of the well-performing VSL groups saw themselves on a path of “graduation” out of dependence on external assistance and out of poverty. In one case, the group cooperation led to the creation of a group business, which proved to be sustainable over time:13 a cassava farm that involved eight members and was established in 2016. However, cooperation among the members was appreciable also in other aspects of the VSL group life, such as many business interactions, the exchange of help in individual businesses and the tolerance with which late repayment was accepted if justified by important external factors. As TEEP participants were also members of other VSL groups not promoted by TEEP, we asked which group they trusted more. In all eight VSL groups where we gathered this information the interviewees considered the members of the TEEP VSL groups more trustworthy and reliable, having received a complete, common training. Finally, when asked if they would have actively participated in the VSL groups even without the lump-sum, all the interviewees that received both lump-sum and training answered positively, stressing that the training was really important for their life while the lump-sum did not bring major long-term benefits. When inquiring if the level of trust towards the village (horizontal, out-group trust) changed compared with three years before – the period before the establishment of the VSL group – we did not find a clear pattern of answers. However, once we consider only VSL groups that are still open, we find that almost 43 per cent of the interviewees (six people) felt that it worsened, 28.5 per cent (four people) felt that was the same and 28.5 felt that it improved. Finally, 60 per cent of the interviewees (71 per cent in VSL groups that were still open) trusted their group more than they trusted the rest of the village. While caution should be used in interpreting these findings due to the very small sample, an in-depth exploration of this important issue revealed a widely shared view of the motivations: people reported jealousy and incomprehension within their communities due to their receipt of the SCT. In any case, these feelings – real or only perceived – were not directly related to the TEEP, but to the intervention on top of which the TEEP was built, 13 Motivated by the training, all VSL groups managed to start at least one group activity during their lifespan, but most were ultimately unsuccessful. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 17 Francesco Burchi / Federico Roscioli namely the SCT. This is confirmed by the interviewees’ admission that the situation was even worse in the periods in which they were waiting for a big amount of money to make up for the SCT suspensions. It must be noted that, in order to minimise the reporting bias, we did not ask directly about pre-and post-TEEP, but simply that respondents compare the current level of trust with what they felt three years earlier. Bringing the interviewees back to three years earlier proved to be difficult, as often happens with retrospective questions (Blome & Augustin, 2015). Further discussion revealed clearly that the respondents had in mind 2014 – when the SCT started in Mwanza – as “baseline”. Respondents reported low trust towards local institutions (vertical trust), in particular the VDC: 54 per cent of the interviewees reported not trusting it. The AEC, a higher-ranking institution than the VDC, was not trusted by a much lower share (25 per cent) of the interviewees. The reasons for the distrust emerged clearly during the discussions with almost all the groups. The interviewees reported being discriminated against by the institutions in terms of access to other development interventions because they were already benefiting from the SCT. Being the VDC in charge of the targeting and facilitation of development programmes in the local communities, the perceived discrimination in the access to these programmes seems the most plausible reason for this discrepancy. Another, less important reason is that the interviewees did not know the AEC well: 22 per cent reported they were not aware of the activities of this institution and for this reason they trusted it more. While we do not have enough information to verify whether this discrimination really took place, the repeated messages received during focus group discussions and interviews as well as previous studies (Ansell, van Blerk, Robson, Hajdu, Mwathunga, Hlabana, & Hemsteede, 2019) indicate that this is plausible. Even though this was not explicitly discussed during the focus groups and the interviews, through a direct observation of group dynamics, we arrived at the conclusion that the common feeling of jealousy by the rest of the village and discrimination by some local institutions had probably contributed to the strengthening of group identity mentioned before. This would also be in line with the findings of other studies focusing on group dynamics that reveal that discriminated groups are more united (Stronge, Sengupta, Barlow, Osborne, Houkamau, & Sibley, 2016; Vargas, Sanchez, & Valdez, 2017). In one of the two VSL groups in which there was no perception of discrimination, the members fully trusted both the AEC and the VDC, and it was stressed that the VSL brought unity in the village. In the other VSL group, the VDC had recently changed, so they were still unsure of whether to trust it or not. There was a third group that fully trusted both the local institutions and in which there was no mention of any kind of discrimination.14 Finally, a generally acknowledged precondition for a cohesive community is a good relationship between the genders. Only a small proportion of TEEP beneficiaries were men (Beierl, Burchi, & Strupat, 2017), thus they made up a relatively small share of VSL 14 One hypothesis for this finding is that different VDCs simply behave differently. An analysis of the quantitative data collected in 2017 provides a small empirical support of this: some members of the two groups that had some trust in the local institutions had access to other development programmes, in particular the emergency food assistance managed by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee, while in the other groups no one had access to them. German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 18 Can integrated social protection programmes affect social cohesion? Mixed-methods evidence from Malawi groups.15 It is worth highlighting that no tension between genders was reported within any group. 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Evidence from Africa. Journal of African Economies, 18(1), 153–175. doi:10.1093/jae/ejn009 Zucco, C., Luna, J. P., & Baykal, O. G. (2020). Do conditionalities increase support for government transfers? The Journal of Development Studies, 56(3), 527–544. doi:10.1080/00220388.2019.1577388 German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) 28 Publications of the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) Discussion Papers 2/2021 Srigiri, Srinivasa Reddy, & Ines Dombrowsky. Governance of the water-energy-food nexus for an integrated implementation of the 2030 Agenda: Conceptual and methodological framework for analysis (29 pp.). ISBN 978-3-96021-139-6. DOI:10.23661/dp2.2021 1/2021 Peinhardt, Katherine. Resilience through placemaking: Public spaces in Rotterdam’s climate adaptation approach (57 pp.) ISBN 978-3-96021-138-9. 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