Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy

James, William E.; Camingue, Shiela Working Paper Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 250 Provided in Cooperation with: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila Suggested Citation: James, William E.; Camingue, Shiela (2011) : Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 250, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, https://hdl.handle.net/11540/2054 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/109400 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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James and Shiela Camingue No. 250 | February 2011 ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 250 Asia’s Role in the New United States Export Economy William E. James and Shiela Camingue February 2011 William E. James was formerly Principal Economist, and Shiela Camingue is Economics Officer, in the Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division, Economics and Research Department, Asian Development Bank. This paper was prepared as background material for the Asian Development Outlook 2010. Dr. James was conceptualizing and drafting the paper at the time of his demise. Shiela Camingue completed the paper. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org/economics ©2010 by Asian Development Bank February 2011 ISSN 1655-5252 Publication Stock No. WPS113393 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank. The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia’s development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB’s country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness. The ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication whose titles could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books. The series is maintained by the Economics and Research Department. Contents Abstract v I. Introduction 1 II. Data on and Competitiveness of US Products 3 III. Correlation Analysis of US Real Net Exports 5 IV. Trends in US Real Net Exports by Factor Intensity 7 V. Conclusion 11 Appendix 12 References 22 Abstract The global economic crisis sent world trade volume and world production into retreat and threatened a second Great Depression. There has emerged a consensus that global imbalances—fundamentally reflected in the over-reliance upon the United States (US) consumer market—that built up over the first decade of the 21st century are no longer sustainable. Deficit regions led by the US will have to increase net exports in real terms in order to restore living standards and employment. Surplus regions, Asia, in particular, will have to rely more upon domestic demand and will have a substantial role to play as growth centers for net imports from the rest of the world. This paper examines the composition and prospects for growth of US net exports to the world and to developing Asia. We find that much of the apparent shift in export product shares was a result of the worldwide collapse in demand for high-technology products particularly new aircraft and information technology products. Nonetheless, India, ASEAN-10, and the newly industrialized economies are destinations for US high-technology products to an even greater extent than for the world as a whole. In contrast, the People’s Republic of China tends to import a lower portion of high-technology products but a larger share of agriculture-related and raw materials and energy products than the world as a whole. IV. Trends in US Real Net Exports by Factor Intensity We now turn to analyze the trends in US real net exports by factor intensity and by countries and subregions in developing Asia. Overall, US real net exports declined in 2009. In 2007–2008, US real net exports to the world of over $100 million stood at $246.3 billion, 29% higher than the value in 2006. About 57.8% of this is due to trade in HT manufactures, or products with high research and development (R&D) intensity, such as in aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, and electrical machinery. But in 2009, total net exports plunged by 35% as the global economic crisis continues to slash global trade. HT manufactures suffered considerably as trade in highvalued HT products dropped 50% from $142.4 million in 2007–2008 to just $71.9 million in 2009. Despite the drop, high-valued HT manufactures remains the top exportable products of the US. AR products on the other hand, showed signs of resilience as the value of its net exports in real terms declined by only 10% during the same period. US real net exports to developing Asia also declined across different products but some industries remain resilient. In particular, net exports to ASEAN-10 for high-valued HT manufactures in 2007–2008 stood at about $12.6 billion in real terms, roughly about 74% of total real net exports to the ASEAN-10 region (Figure1). In 2009, this dropped by 56.7% reducing its share in the total to just about 58%. Though overall, real net exports of over $100 million dropped by about 46.9%, the market for HT manufactures in the region remains promising because it still acounts for over half of total real net exports to the region. At least 12 HT products, mainly electrical machinery and equipment including plastics and rubbers, remained in the top 20 products traded in 2009 (Appendix Table 1). Notable however is the rise in the share of AR products. Though its value dropped by 12.3% in 2009, the share of AR products overall has increased from just about 18% of total real net exports in 2007–2008 to about 33% in 2009. Cereals, oil seeds, cotton, animal feeds, and dairy products remained the top exported AR products to the ASEAN-10 (Appendix Table 1). Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy | 7 Figure 1: US Real Net Exports to the ASEAN-10, by Factor Intensity (> $100 million) 2007–2008 2009 AR 18% HT 74% LT 0% RME 8% RME 9% LT 0% AR 33% HT 58% AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. They are generated from a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. US real net exports of high-valued HT products to India as well dropped from $6.1 billion in 2007–2008 to just $3.1 billion in 2009, with the biggest impact found in HT manufactures (it dropped from a high of 80% of the total in 2007–2008 to just 50% in 2009, as seen in Figure 2). Of particular interest however, is the 29 percentage points rise of real net exports of RMEs in 2009. Its share to the total improved to 45% from just 16% in 2007–2008 due mainly to increases in trade of precious stones and metals, iron and steel, and wood pulp (Appendix Table 2). Continuous trade in fertilizers and nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, and mechanical appliances have also kept HT manufactures a buoyant industry. Real net exports of AR products have also improved slightly. An almost similar trend for HT manufactures was also seen in US real net exports to the NIEs. Real net exports of HT manufactures dropped by 43.1% from 71.2% in 2007–2008 to just 58.2% in 2009 (Figure 3). But some HT products like machinery and mechanical appliances and electrical equipment, measuring and medical instruments and apparatus, and plastics remained the top exported products to the NIEs. AR products like corn, soybeans, nuts, wheat, and meat also remained in the top 20 (Appendix Table 3). Overall, the value of net exports in real terms to the NIEs dropped 35% in 2009. 8 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 250 Figure 2: US Real Net Exports to India, by Factor Intensity (> $100 million) AR 2% AR 5% HT 82% HT 50% RME 16% RME 45% LT 0% LT 0% 2007–2008 2009 AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. They are generated from a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. Figure 3: US Real Net Exports to the NIEs, by Factor Intensity (> $100 M) 2007–2008 2009 RME 11.2% RME 14.9% LT 0.5% HT 71.2% HT 58.2% LT 0.0% AR 17.1% AR 26.9% AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. They are generated from a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy | 9 Though HT products hold the lion’s share in the overall real net exports pie to the PRC, its share is less dominant than in the other regions. AR products like soybeans, cotton, meat, and edible offal of poultry remained top US exports in real net terms to the PRC, indicating a high demand for food in the PRC (Appendix Table 4). Over the years, the pattern of food consumption in the PRC has changed in response to rising incomes and growing population. In particular, consumption of meat has increased. Consumption of soybeans as well, either directly as food—tofu, meat substitutes, soy sauce, and other products–or extracted as oil has also increased. In 2009, net exports in real terms of AR products to the PRC increased by 15% from the $7.5 billion average in 2007–2008. Overall, real net exports to the PRC only dropped 8.5% in 2009, compared to the 2-digit declines in India and other regions. Figure 4: US Real Net Exports to the PRC , by Factor Intensity (> $100 M) RME 26% AR 28% HT 45% HT 28% AR 41% RME 30% LT 1% LT 1% 2007–2008 2009 AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. They are generated from a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. For developing Asia as a whole, 231 detailed products met the criteria with an overall average value of over $246 billion (in 2001 prices), nearly 58% of which were in HT manufacturing (Table 1). In the precrisis period, the US had net exports in real terms to developing Asia of at least $10 million per year for 177 of the 231 products—with an even greater concentration in the HT category (60%). In contrast to the precrisis performance, in 2009 there was a huge shift in US net exports from HT to the other three categories, especially agriculture. The trend is almost similar for real net exports to developing Asia of at least $100 million (Figure 5). 10 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 250 Figure 5: US Real Net Exports to Developing Asia, by Factor Intensity (> $100 million) RME 17% RME 22% AR 34% AR 22% LT 1% LT 2% HT 60% HT 42% 2007–2008 2009 AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. They are generated from a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. V. Conclusion The analyses of this paper suggest that much of the apparent shift in product shares was a result of the worldwide collapse in demand for high-technology products, particularly new aircraft (the most important product in US net exports in “normal” years) and in information technology products. With new commercial airliners coming off the assembly lines soon, this shift is likely to be reversed. Interestingly, India, ASEAN-10, and the NIEs are destinations for US HT products to an even greater extent than for the world as a whole. In contrast, the PRC tends to receive a lower portion of HT net imports (28%) but a larger share of AR (41%) and RME products (30%) than the world as a whole. As developing Asia renews its emphasis on improving the quality of life and improving health and environment, its demand for US-produced high technology goods is likely to accelerate and thus to contribute to a more balanced global trade relationship. This will be mutually beneficial as the US seeks to raise saving and exports and to curb consumption and imports. Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy | 11 Appendix Appendix Table 1: Top 20 Products to ASEAN, by Value of Real Net Exports, 2009 Rank in 2007– 2008 Category 4-digit HTS Code Description 2007 (‘000) 2008 (‘000) 2007–2008 Average (‘000) 2009 (‘000) 1HT 8542 Electronic integrated circuits, and parts thereof 3,125,803.75 3,539,854.5 3,332,829.1 1,551,020.4 4HT 8431 Parts of machinery of headings 8425 to 8430 covering derricks, forklift trucks, conveyers, self-propelled bulldozers, graders, snowplows, etc. 1,214,083.75 1,360,475.9 1,287,279.8 1,038,284.8 9AR 1201 Soybeans, whether or not broken 575,390.88 626,284.6 600,837.8 913,798.3 6AR 1001 Wheat and meslin 668,273.25 1,008,112.8 838,193.0 587,174.6 8AR 5201 Cotton, not carded or combed 549,023.69 743,328.9 646,176.3 531,841.5 7RME 7204 Ferrous waste and scrap, remelting scrap ingots of iron or steel 622,351.94 983,196.8 802,774.3 519,319.5 20 AR 2304 Soybean oilcake and other solid residues resulting from the extraction of soybean oil, whether or not ground or in the form of pellets 120,909.48 185,264.4 153,086.9 412,824.6 13 HT 3901 Polymers of ethylene, in primary form 229,395.94 331,588.7 280,492.3 381,346.6 14 HT 3811 Antiknock preparations and other additives for mineral oils (including gasoline) or for other liquids used for the same purposes as mineral oils 253,878.17 286,662.5 270,270.4 276,239.8 3HT 8411 Turbojets, turbopropellers and other gas turbines, and parts thereof 1,712,341.00 1,415,521.0 1,563,931.0 255,553.4 16 AR 2303 Residues of starch manufacture and other residues and waste of sugar manufacture, brewing or distilling dregs and waste, whether or not in pellets 149,444.16 248,838.3 199,141.2 249,546.6 11 HT 8486 Semiconductor and flat panel manufacturing and assembly equipment, and parts thereof 365,689.50 404,146.2 384,917.8 248,928.8 continued. 12 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 250 Rank in 2007– 2008 Category 4-digit HTS Code Description 2007 (‘000) 2008 (‘000) 2007–2008 Average (‘000) 2009 (‘000) 17 HT 8421 Centrifuges, including centrifugal dryers; filtering or purifying machinery and apparatus, for liquids or gases; and parts thereof 203,906.09 182,386.5 193,146.3 205,217.0 15 HT 8479 Machines and mechanical appliances having individual functions, nesoi; and parts thereof 284,690.34 148,621.3 216,655.8 197,422.0 25 HT 3902 Polymers of propylene or of other olefins, in primary form 120,584.60 148,590.2 134,587.4 169,949.2 10 HT 8541 Diodes, transistors, and similar devices; photosensitive semiconductor devices; light-emitting diodes; mounted piezoelectirc crystals; and parts thereof 479,715.75 308,872.5 394,294.1 168,228.8 28 AR 1208 Flours and meals of oil seeds or oleaginous fruits, other than those of mustard 103,945.85 142,261.3 123,103.6 165,628.0 18 HT 8408 Compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines (diesel or semidiesel engines) 128,130.29 191,579.3 159,854.8 143,272.9 12 AR 402 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sweetening 297,890.03 429,687.4 363,788.7 142,643.2 21 HT 3815 Reaction initiators, reaction accelerators, and catalytic preparations nesoi 117,123.52 185,704.5 151,414.0 141,766.1 AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. The ranking is based on a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. Appendix Table 1: continued. Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy | 13 Appendix Table 2: Top 20 Products to India, by Value of Real Net Exports, 2009 Rank in 2007– 2008 Category 4-digit HTS Code Description 2007 (‘000) 2008 (‘000) 2007–2008 Average (‘000) 2009 (‘000) 2HT 3105 Mineral or chemical fertilizers with two of the three fertilizer elements; fertilizers nesoi; fertilizers in packs etc. not over 10 kilograms gross weight (2.54) 2,161,445.5 1,080,721.5 907,713.6 3RME 7108 Gold (including gold plated with platinum), unwrought or in semimanufactured forms, or in powder form 321,909.47 388,075.4 354,992.5 546,719.5 4RME 7204 Ferrous waste and scrap, remelting scrap ingots of iron or steel 284,511.84 283,709.2 284,110.5 354,509.3 7RME 2701 Coal; briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels manufactured from coal 76,679.36 280,605.0 178,642.2 293,404.3 6HT 8411 Turbojets, turbopropellers and other gas turbines, and parts thereof 272,489.00 156,194.4 214,341.7 271,726.3 5HT 8431 Parts of machinery of headings 8425 to 8430 covering derricks, forklift trucks, conveyers, self-propelled bulldozers, graders, snowplows, etc. 227,940.78 214,007.8 220,974.3 203,943.2 9RME 4707 Waste and scrap of paper or paperboard 154,390.02 120,684.3 137,537.2 168,368.6 8AR 802 Nuts nesoi, fresh or dried 149,489.00 139,976.7 144,732.8 159,159.3 10 HT 3815 Reaction initiators, reaction accelerators, and catalytic preparations nesoi 88,931.47 120,304.8 104,618.1 150,502.6 14 HT 9018 Instruments and appliances used in medical, surgical, dental or veterinary sciences (including electromedical and sight-testing); and parts thereof 93,956.85 75,643.1 84,800.0 120,019.5 40 HT 3904 Polymers of vinyl chloride or of other halogenated olefins, in primary form 14,936.55 21,884.1 18,410.3 101,794.9 85 AR 1507 Soybean oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified 9,836.72 13.2 4,925.0 101,439.0 continued. 14 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 250 Rank in 2007– 2008 Category 4-digit HTS Code Description 2007 (‘000) 2008 (‘000) 2007–2008 Average (‘000) 2009 (‘000) 18 HT 3901 Polymers of ethylene, in primary form 55,121.83 57,639.2 56,380.5 97,319.5 11 HT 9027 Instruments and apparatus for physical or chemical analysis, including checking viscosity, expansion, heat, sound, light etc.; microtomes; and parts thereof 93,622.67 96,842.2 95,232.4 96,589.0 16 AR 5201 Cotton, not carded or combed 66,310.49 80,028.0 73,169.2 88,205.1 12 HT 2809 Diphosphorus pentaoxide, phosphoric acid, and polyphosphoric acids (159.90) 177,206.8 88,523.5 82,051.7 26 AR 713 Leguminous vegetables, dried shelled 36,430.63 31,190.5 33,810.6 77,822.9 15 HT 9030 Oscilloscopes, spectrum analyzers etc. for measuring etc. electrical quantities, nesoi; devices for measuring etc. ionizing radiations; and parts thereof 84,950.09 64,753.5 74,851.8 75,752.5 23 HT 8430 Machinery nesoi, for moving, grading, excavating, boring etc. Earth, minerals or ores; pile-drivers and pileextractors; snowplows and snowblowers 9,176.82 64,888.8 37,032.8 67,105.1 17 HT 4002 Synthetic rubber and factice in primary forms etc.; mixtures of natural rubber or gums with synthetic rubber or factice, in primary forms etc. 58,388.32 65,220.1 61,804.2 58,010.2 AR = agriculture-related, HT = high-technology manufactures, LT = low-technology manufactures, RME = raw materials and energy. Note: Real values are derived using the average of export and import price indexes. The ranking is based on a sample where US net exports to the world is over $100 million. Source: Authors’ calculation using data from USITC (2010) Interactive Tariff and Trade DataWeb, Version 3.1.0, available: dataweb. usitc.gov/, downloaded 15 February 2010. Appendix Table 2: continued. Asia's Role in the New United States Export Economy | 15 Appendix Table 3: Top 20 Products to NIEs, by Value of Real Net Exports in 2009 Rank in 2007– 2008 Category 4-digit HTS Code Description 2007 (‘000) 2008 (‘000) 2007–2008 Average (‘000) 2009 (‘000) 2HT 8486 Semiconductor and flat panel manufacturing and assembly equipment, and parts thereof 3,739,862.00 2,297,864.8 3,018,863.4 2,354,429.8 4AR 1005 Corn (maize) 1,348,324.88 2,311,177.3 1,829,751.1 1,571,105.9 7RME 7204 Ferrous waste and scrap, remelting scrap ingots of iron or steel 1,157,188.63 1,924,916.0 1,541,052.3 1,467,975.4 6HT 8541 Diodes, transistors, and similar devices; photosensitive semiconductor devices; light-emitting diodes; mounted piezoelectric crystals; and parts thereof 1,656,360.38 1,508,287.8 1,582,324.1 1,455,402.5 8HT 8431 Parts of machinery of headings 8425 to 8430 covering derricks, forklift trucks, conveyers, self-propelled bulldozers, graders, snowplows, etc. 1,051,255.50 1,310,197.5 1,180,726.5 1,226,475.4 10 AR 1201 Soybeans, whether or not broken 745,200.50 889,797.8 817,499.2 847,944.1 26 AR 802 Nuts nesoi, fresh or dried 215,615.91 304,396.6 260,006.3 604,856.8 11 HT 9031 Measuring or checking instruments, appliances and machines, nesoi; profile projectors; parts and accessories thereof 988,964.44 518,241.8 753,603.1 513,837.3 9HT 9030 Oscilloscopes, spectrum analyzers etc. for measuring etc. electrical quantities, nesoi; devices for measuring etc. Ionizing radiations; and parts thereof 1,475,322.38 848,428.4 1,161,875.4 475,788.1 19 HT 3901 Polymers of ethylene, in primary form 331,163.28 423,336.7 377,250.0 448,521.2 13 AR 1001 Wheat and meslin 573,340.13 680,847.6 627,093.8 447,526.3 22 HT 9027 Instruments and apparatus for physical or chemical analysis, including checking viscosity, expansion, heat, sound, light etc.; microtomes; and parts thereof 364,527.06 312,172.6 338,349.8 356,758.5 23 AR 203 Meat of swine (pork), fresh, chilled or frozen 234,978.84 420,666.4 327,822.6 341,528.8 continued. 16 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 250 About the Paper William E. James and Shiela Camingue examine the composition and prospects for growth of net exports of the United States (US) to the world and to developing Asia. They find that much of the apparent shift in export product shares was a result of the worldwide collapse in demand for high-technology products, particularly new aircraft and information technology products. Nonetheless, India, ASEAN-10, and the newly industrialized economies are destinations for US high-technology products to an even greater extent than for the world as a whole. In contrast, the People’s Republic of China tends to import a lower portion of high-technology products but a larger share of agriculture-related and raw materials and energy products than the world as a whole. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to two-thirds of the world’s poor: 1.8 billion people who live on less than $2 a day, with 903 million struggling on less than $1.25 a day. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org/economics ISSN: 1655-5252 Publication Stock No. WPS113393 Printed on recycled paper Printed in the Philippines <01133936>