STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING POVERTY AND THEIR EFFECTIVENESS

YOSH OLIMLAR ILMIY-AMALIY KONFERENSIYASI in-academy.uz/index.php/yo 269 STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ASSESSING POVERTY AND THEIR EFFECTIVENESS Mamatkulov Kahramon Choriyevich Captain, Senior Instructor of the "Professional Training" Cycle of the Tashkent Regional Training Center of the National Guard of the Republic of Uzbekistan https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18013732 Annotation: This article is devoted to the analysis of modern statistical methodologies used in assessing the level of poverty. The study presents a statistical analysis of the procedures for calculating the poverty line and minimum consumption expenditures (MCE), the importance of the Lorenz curve and the Gini coefficient in evaluating income inequality, as well as the role of per capita income dynamics in reducing poverty. Keywords: Poverty reduction, relevance of statistical measurement, poverty line and minimum consumption expenditures, determination of food expenditures, inclusion of nonfood expenditures, Engel coefficient, Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve, per capita income. At the global level, poverty reduction stands at the core of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Poverty not only signifies a lack of income but also reflects limited social opportunities and the violation of the right to education, healthcare, and a decent standard of living. In recent years, poverty reduction has become a priority area of state policy in the Republic of Uzbekistan. However, to implement effective and well-targeted policies, it is necessary to identify the root of the problem—namely, to accurately measure its scale, depth, and dynamics of distribution using statistical methods. The relevance of statistical measurement lies in its ability to ensure efficient use of public resources, deliver assistance only to those who are genuinely in need, and objectively assess the effectiveness of adopted strategies. Purpose and objectives of the study: - Purpose: To analyze modern statistical methodologies for assessing poverty levels and to substantiate the effectiveness of their application in local conditions. - Objectives: 1. To study the statistical procedure for calculating the poverty line and minimum consumption expenditures (MCE). 2. To analyze the role of the Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve in assessing income inequality among the population. 3. To statistically substantiate the role of per capita income dynamics in poverty reduction. 4. To develop proposals for establishing an effective statistical monitoring system for poverty reduction based on the analyses conducted. The theoretical basis of the study is formed by modern economic theories and the principles of statistical and econometric modeling. Methodologically, the study employs systematic analysis, statistical grouping, correlation-regression analysis, and observation (monitoring) methods. Calculation of the Poverty Line and Minimum Consumption Expenditures (MCE). YOSH OLIMLAR ILMIY-AMALIY KONFERENSIYASI in-academy.uz/index.php/yo 270 The procedure for calculating minimum consumption expenditures is the main reference point for measuring poverty. Based on international experience, this threshold is determined using the “expenditure-based approach.” Determination of food expenditures: In the first stage, the minimum food expenditures required to provide the necessary calories for a healthy life (for example, 2,200 kcal) are determined. Adding non-food expenditures: Based on household statistical surveys conducted to study the actual consumption structure of the poor, the share of food expenditures in their total spending (i.e., the Engel coefficient) is determined. The minimum consumption expenditures as the total amount of expenditures are calculated using the following formula: MCE = Engel coefficient × FCE Poverty is not only a lack of income but also an unequal distribution of income within society. The following foundations are used to analyze this inequality: - Lorenz curve: This graphical representation visually shows the difference between the percentage share of the population and the percentage share of total income. The farther it is from the diagonal line, the higher the inequality. - Gini coefficient: It is the ratio of the area between the Lorenz curve and the line of absolute equality to the total area, expressing the degree of social stratification as a single number (ranging from 0 to 1). An increase in the Gini coefficient over the years may indicate that state policies are contradicting the principles of social justice. Dynamics of income per capita: Per capita income is the most general indicator of the average welfare of the population. It is calculated as the ratio of total income to the population size. The dynamics of this indicator (year-to-year changes) serve as a basis for analyzing how much the results of economic growth reach the poor segment. If the growth of nominal income is below the level of inflation, the real purchasing power of the population decreases, and statistically, the level of poverty remains high or increases. In conclusion, Statistics is the 'X-ray machine' of the economy. Without it, one cannot see where the problem is, nor can it be addressed. The issue of reducing poverty is not just a social problem, but an economic task that requires deep statistical analysis. Statistical indicators allow the government to direct money and resources with maximum efficiency. Adabiyotlar, References, Литературы: 1. Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. “On Approval of the Strategy for Reducing Poverty in the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2030.” (Latest edition). 2. Resolution No. 544 of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan, dated August 27, 2021. “On the Implementation of the Procedure for Calculating Minimum Consumer Expenses.” 3. Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan. “On Employment of the Population.” (New edition). 4. Decree No. PF-60 of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, dated January 28, 2022. “On the Development Strategy of the New Uzbekistan for 2022–2026.” 5. Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. “Socio-Economic Situation of the Republic of Uzbekistan” statistical collection (2023–2024). YOSH OLIMLAR ILMIY-AMALIY KONFERENSIYASI in-academy.uz/index.php/yo 271 6. Ministry of Economy and Finance. “Analytical Reports on Poverty Reduction and Improvement of Population Welfare.” 7. Institute of Macroeconomic and Regional Studies (IMRS). “Analytical Materials on Social Stratification and Gini Coefficient Dynamics in Uzbekistan.” 8. www.stat.uz – Official portal of the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. 9. www.worldbank.org/poverty – World Bank global poverty database. 10. www.lex.uz – National database of legislative information of the Republic of Uzbekistan.