Of friends and foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb. Perceptions and instumentalisation

Werenfels, Isabelle Research Report Of friends and foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb. Perceptions and instumentalisation SWP Research Paper, No. 8/2024 Provided in Cooperation with: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin Suggested Citation: Werenfels, Isabelle (2024) : Of friends and foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb. Perceptions and instumentalisation, SWP Research Paper, No. 8/2024, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin, https://doi.org/10.18449/2024RP08 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298858 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Isabelle Werenfels Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb Perceptions and Instrumentalisation SWP Research Paper 8 June 2024, Berlin Abstract ∎ For decades, Maghrebi decision-makers have instrumentalised friend and foe narratives with regard to Israel and Iran, two of the most controversial regional actors in the MENA region. Only Morocco has official relations with Israel, only Algeria and Tunisia with Iran. ∎ A systematic analysis of news agency reports and social media shows that political elites in the Maghreb exploit public sentiment on Israel and Iran for their own domestic and foreign policy ends: distracting from socioeconomic challenges, restricting freedom of expression, strengthening the security apparatus, demonising neighbours, and nation-branding. ∎ The escalation of violence in the Middle East since 7 October 2023 has amplified existing trends in the three Maghreb states concerning Israel and to a lesser extent Iran, and revealed almost unanimous public rejection of Israel and, to a lesser degree, growing sympathies for Iran. ∎ The official responses vary: Rabat is sticking to its normalisation with Israel and rejection of Iran. Algiers is seeking to position itself as a voice for global justice in the international arena, while the Tunisian president styles himself as one of the Arab World’s most steadfast proponents of the “liberation” of Palestine. ∎ Decision-makers in Europe need to develop an understanding of the frustrations in the Maghreb over Western double standards, and of the fundamentally different perspectives on Israel/Palestine. Otherwise they risk losing all their (civil society) partners in the region. ∎ At the same time, European policy-makers should be attentive when Maghrebi governments restrict freedom of expression and religious pluralism under the pretext of opposing Israel or Iran and – in the case of Algeria and Morocco – resort to potentially destabilising propaganda and sabre-rattling. SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Isabelle Werenfels Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb Perceptions and Instrumentalisation SWP Research Paper 8 June 2024, Berlin This work is licensed under CC BY 4.0 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the executive board of the Institute. They are also subject to copy-editing. For further information on our quality control procedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp-berlin.org/ en/about-swp/qualitymanagement-for-swp- publications/. SWP Research Papers reflect the views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-200 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] ISSN (Print) 2747-5123 ISSN (Online) 1863-1053 DOI: 10.18449/2024RP08 Translation by Meredith Dale (Updated and revised English version of SWP-Studie 12/2024) Table of Contents 5 Issues and Recommendations 7 State of Relations – the Background to Instrumentalisation 7 Israel: Normalise or isolate? 9 Iran: Blowing hot and cold 11 Economic and security cooperation: Deliberately opaque 14 Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation 14 Framings in news agency reports 19 Fields of political instrumentalisation 24 The Resonance and Limits of Instrumentalisation 24 Sentiment on Israel: Significant correspondence with official framings 30 Iran: More scepticism than in the official framings 34 Public Sentiment and Risks of Its Instrumentalisation 34 Deepening authoritarian practices 34 Exacerbating regional and international tensions 35 Reinforcing anti-Western sovereignty discourses 35 Europe: Trends to support and to counteract 36 Abbreviations Dr Isabelle Werenfels is a Senior Fellow in the Africa and Middle East Research Division at SWP. SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 5 Issues and Recommendations Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb Perceptions and Instrumentalisation The Maghreb states that form Europe’s immediate southern neighbourhood have witnessed strong political and societal reactions to the violence in the Middle East on and after 7 October 2023. Fundamental rejection of Israeli policies and alienation from Western positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have become glaringly obvious. This is in line with patterns that have emerged in recent years, namely growing post-colonial and vibrant sovereignty discourses in both governments and societies. These frequently involve explicit friend/foe constellations and are not restricted to Western actors like France and the United States; influential regional actors like Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are also objects of controversy. Yet, Israel and to a lesser extent Iran stand out as particularly contentious and divisive states. The debates about Israel already heated up in the Maghreb after the so-called Trump deal in December 2020, when Morocco normalised its relations with Israel in return for US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Cooperation between Morocco and Israel has intensified significantly since the deal. In Algeria and Tunisia, which have no diplomatic relations with Israel, rejection of any form of economic, political or cultural relationship with Israel or Israelis is foundational – and associated with criticism of Morocco. Iran also looms remarkably large in the public debate, especially in Morocco and Tunisia, despite its negligible actual cooperation with Maghreb states. Here the basis is frequently more rumour than fact. Morocco broke off diplomatic relations with Tehran (again) in 2018. Rabat accuses Iran of interference in Moroccan affairs and arming the independence movement in Western Sahara, and speaks of an Algerian-Iranian axis of regional destabilisation. The heart of the present study is therefore neither an analysis of the grey zones of actual cooperation between the Maghreb states with Israel respectively Iran nor of the agendas of these two external actors in the Maghreb. Instead, it is about understanding how decision-makers in Algiers, Rabat and Tunis seek to Issues and Recommendations SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 6 influence attitudes to and discussions about the two controversial states, and to exploit these for domestic and foreign policy ends. What public mood and resonance are involved? Where does state influence meet its limits? And not least, what are the implications of the intersection of sentiment and instrumentalisation for domestic political and regional dynamics, as well as for relations with European countries? The findings presented in this study are based in the first place on a systematic analysis of state news agency reports, tweets and Facebook posts between 2020 and 2022. In other words, research for this paper began long before the escalation of violence on and after 7 October 2023. However, selected news portals and social media were analysed and numerous interviews conducted in the Maghreb after October 7 and through to spring 2024. The analysis shows substantial continuities. Maghrebi decision-makers, while having genuine sympathy for the Palestinian cause or genuine disaffection with Iran, exploit the public mood on those two countries and in some cases stoke it in order to distract from socio-economic challenges, to delegitimise the political opposition, to restrict freedom of expression, to strengthen security apparatuses – and thus to consolidate their own power. The real or perceived Israel and Iranian presence in the Maghreb and the escalation of violence in Israel/ Palestine is also instrumentalised in the foreign policy and security sphere to demonise neighbours, to justify costly arms purchases and to advance nationbranding in the regional and international context. Morocco presents itself as a moderate pro-Western actor standing firm against an Iranian-led “axis of resistance” and motivated to mediate for peace in the Middle East. The Tunisian president styles himself as an uncompromising fighter against Zionism, advocating the liberation of (all of) Palestine and thus standing ideologically close to the “axis of resistance”. Algeria builds on its traditional solidarity with Palestine and parades its consistent rejection of Israel to distinguish itself as a central voice of the “Global South” and global justice. These framings have great resonance in the public sphere, but limits and contradictions are also visible. In Morocco for example the population overwhelmingly rejects normalisation, while Algeria in theory encourages solidarity with Palestine but largely suppresses its manifestation in public demonstrations, fearing that they could morph into anti-regime protests. Maghrebi populations’ and governments’ negative perspectives on Israel also apply to European states that back Israel. This predates 7 October 2023 and some European governments’ very emphatic declarations of solidarity with Israel and condemnations of Hamas (and its support from Iran), and poses an acute challenge for Europe. How should foreign policy, security and development actors respond to the heated public moods, political instrumentalisations and sometimes rampant disinformation concerning Israel and Iran in the Maghreb and the resulting manifest political consequences? While there are no easy answers, a number of basic principles can be enumerated: Distinguish between rejection of Israeli policy and antisemitism. It is a necessary balancing act for European actors to distinguish legitimate rejection of Israeli policies and solidarity with the Palestinian struggle from support for violence against Jews and Israelis. Even if Maghrebi support for the Palestinian cause, rejection of Israel in its current form and calls for boycotts are considered one-sided by many European governments, they need to be respected. Also, Europeans need to take seriously the criticisms of double standards coming from those actors they considered natural partners in the region: democracy oriented civil-society actors. Calls for violence against Jews, on the other hand, must be called out and condemned. Keep an eye on freedom of expression, academic freedom and cultural pluralism. The public mood on Israel and to a certain extent Iran serves as a pretext for repressive measures and restrictions on freedom of expression. It is quite possible that legislation to criminalise any relations with Israel or Israelis will be revived, at least in Tunisia – and become a lever to restrict freedom of expression more generally. That would have negative repercussions for Tunisia’s Jewish minority and could narrow the country’s room for manoeuvre in the international arena – as European politicians should point out. In all three states Shiite proselytising is attributed to Iran. Shiites are sometimes persecuted or at least viewed with suspicion. European actors should consistently speak out against all discrimination against religious minorities. Avoid instrumentalisation. Algerian and Moroccan decision-makers have a manifest interest in drawing European actors onto their side. European politicians must avoid any attempt to involve them in intra- Maghrebi defamation campaigns, which often feature arguments over Israel and Iran. The risk of escalation is ever-present. Europe’s goal must be to de-escalate by counteracting disinformation and aggressive rhetoric within and between the Maghreb states. Economic and security cooperation: Deliberately opaque SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 13 litical summits. 35 Both countries’ official communiqués refer to cooperation in numerous areas without mentioning defence. 36 Although there have been frequent announcements of military and security cooperation, the extent to which this is actually realised remains unclear. In late 2022 it was reported that Algeria was among the countries seeking to purchase Iranian drones. 37 While the frequent Moroccan, Saudi and Israeli reports about the Polisario Front receiving support through the Iranian-backed Hezbollah cannot be independently verified, certain Western intelligence services and financial investigators are claim to have information to that effect. 38 Tunisian-Iranian security cooperation is simply nonexistent. As such the discussion in the Maghreb about security cooperation (and arms deals) with Iran is based almost exclusively on rumours and therefore ideal for stirring trouble. Like the reports about Israel’s real or alleged cooperation with Morocco, these stories are often picked up, circulated and politically instrumentalised by decision-makers and other actors in the Maghreb. 35 Ghaya Ben Mbarek, “Algerian Parliament Speaker Meets Iranian President Raisi in Tehran”, The National, 23 August 2023, https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2023/08/23/ algerian-parliament-speaker-meets-iranian-president-raisi-in- tehran/; Ali Izadi, “FM: Iran-Algeria Ties on Right Track”, IRNA, 8 July 2023, https://en.irna.ir/news/85163205/FM-Iran- Algeria-ties-on-right-track; “Iran’s Foreign Minister Visits Algeria over Syrian, Gulf Crisis”, North Africa Post, 19 June 2017, https://northafricapost.com/18405-irans-foreign- minister-visits-algeria-syrian-gulf-crisis.html. 36 “Development of Iran-Algeria Relations”, nournews, 7 August 2023, https://nournews.ir/En/News/145099/ Development-of-Iran-Algeria-relations. 37 “22 Countries Requested to Purchase Iran Military Drones, Official Says”, Middle East Monitor, 19 October 2022, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221019-22-countries- requested-to-purchase-iran-military-drones-official-says/. 38 Christine Kensche, “Wie der Iran ein weltumspannendes Terror-Netz gegen Israel in Stellung bringt”, Die Welt, 10 November 2023, https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/ plus248426070/Geheimdienstberichte-Irans-weltumspannen des-Terror-Netz-gegen-Israel.html. Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 14 The analysis of official and semi-official sources presented in this study demonstrates how Maghrebi decision-makers seek to define and control their respective national discussions about Israel and Iran. Often Israel and Iran serve simply as vehicles for consolidating and legitimising power by constructing an external enemy and ostentatiously demonstrating foreign policy successes at home and abroad. In other words, the discursive treatment of Israel and Iran – the “official story” – is related to the politics of authoritarian rule 39 and nation-branding. 40 Although the data for the present study was gathered and analysed before 7 October 2023, a supplementary more selective review of post–7 October publications reveals that the underlying tendencies in the official framings of Israel and Iran remain essentially stable. Any significant differences identified after 7 October are noted in the following discussion. Framings in news agency reports Prior to October 7 the heads of all three states – the Moroccan king and the Algerian and Tunisian presi- 39 There is a significant body of political science literature on the importance of the ability to influence and control discourses, to develop narratives and to adapt them to changing national and international circumstances for the legitimacy and power of authoritarian rulers. See Laurie A. Brand, Official Stories: Politics and National Narratives in Egypt and Algeria (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2014), https:// www.sup.org/books/title/?id=23394, and Christian Göbel, “Authoritarian Consolidation”, European Political Science 10 (2011): 176–90, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/ eps.2010.47. 40 “Nation-branding” refers to efforts to project a particular image in the international arena through deliberate marketing and communication strategies. See Steffen Wippel, ed., Branding the Middle East (Berlin and Boston: De Gruyter, 2023), doi: 10.1515/9783110741100. dents – mentioned Iran and Israel only occasionally in their speeches. Statements on Israel and Iran are more commonly found in the official news agencies’ reports and, especially, in the local pro-government media. Given the increasingly strict state control over the entire media spectrum in Algeria and Morocco, it can be assumed that the official news agencies Algérie Presse Service (APS) and Maghreb Arabe Presse (MAP) reflect the positions of the respective political leaders towards Israel and Iran and the specific image of those two states that their rulers wish to communicate in their own public sphere and internationally. For this study a quantitative analysis was conducted of the reports published by APS and MAP between 1 January 2020 and 1 June 2022. 25 percent of all reports that mentioned Israel and Iran were also subjected to manual coding, in order to identify positive, negative and neutral sentiments as well as specific patterns of argumentation (for detailed information on the data gathering and analysis see doi: 10.7802/ 2691). The Tunisian state agency TAP was not included in this systematic analysis, because it exhibited a comparatively independent line until spring 2023. Here the analysis focused on the Facebook posts of the Tunisian presidency during the period between July 2021, when President Kais Saied began to massively expand his powers, and July 2022. To an extent this Facebook page can be regarded as equivalent to the official news agencies in Algeria and Morocco, because it served as the principal platform for presidential pronouncements during the investigated period and thus represented the official political line. Since the appointment of a new director in March 2023 the Tunisian news agency TAP has also shifted towards reflecting the president’s positions. Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation Framings in news agency reports SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 15 Disproportionate focus on Israel Our quantitative analysis of the texts published by APS and MAP reveals that more reports were published on Israel than on any of the other six “regional players” included in the investigation (Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE; see Figure 3). Out of 39,785 reports published by MAP and APS during the period in question (on all topics), 1,654 mentioned Israel. Roughly twice as many Algerian agency reports mentioned Israel compared to Moroccan. The frequency of reports on Israel spiked in connection with three types of development: The first were “milestones” in the normalisation between Israel and Morocco. These included President Trump’s announcement that there would be full diplomatic relations between Israel and Morocco (on 10 December 2020), and the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Israel and Morocco on cooperation in the security sector (in November 2021). A second set of peaks was associated with conflicts between Algeria and Morocco in which Israel played a role, such as at the Pegasus affair, where Morocco apparently used Israeli-sourced spyware to target – among others – members of the Algerian political elite. Another example was the controversial question of Israel’s observer status at the African Union, on which Algeria and Morocco took opposing stances. Finally, peaks occurred with significant developments in the Israel/Palestine conflict, and included Israeli military attacks on the Gaza Strip, confrontations between Israeli security forces and Palestinian worshippers on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem (for example in April/May 2021), and the publication of Amnesty International’s report accusing Israel of apartheid (in February 2022). Algeria as bulwark against “Zionist aggression and destabilisation” Israel’s official framing by the Algerian agency was unambiguous: not a single report containing statements on Israel reflected a positive perspective. Less than 10 percent of the reports were classified as neutral reporting without value judgements, while Figure 3 Framings in news agency reports Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 16 more than 90 percent contained negative statements or condemnation of Israel (see Figure 4). The language generally referred not to “Israel” but to “the occupation forces” or the “Zionist entity” (the latter essentially calling its right to statehood into question). The content can be classified into three broad currents. In the first Israel was presented as the aggressor, the Palestinians as victims, and Algeria as a determined and reliable supporter of the Palestinians. The reports condemned acts of Israeli violence against the Palestinians in East Jerusalem, Gaza and the West Bank, expressed solidarity with the Palestinians, highlighted Algeria’s pro-Palestinian activities in regional and international organisations, and noted third-party recognition for Algeria’s support for the Palestinians. A second current was reports attacking Morocco, in which Israel was mentioned as a supporter of Morocco, as a potential danger to Algeria’s security, and as a destabilising actor in the Maghreb and Sub- Saharan Africa. Accordingly, “normalisation” was one of the terms most likely to be found systematically in combination with “Israel”, “Zionist state” or “Zionist entity” in APS texts. 41 41 “Normalisation” came first, followed by “Palestine/Palestinian(s)”, “Al-Quds” (Jerusalem), “Gaza” and “West Bank”. “Morocco” and “Trump” came before “occupation”, presumably reflecting the relevance of Morocco’s Trump deal for Algerian decision-makers (and the latter’s irritation). Morocco was frequently accused of spying on behalf of Israel. 42 And there was unequivocal condemnation of statements made by Israeli politicians in Rabat that were interpreted as direct aggression against Algeria. 43 But Israel was also attributed an indirect role in the forest fires in summer 2021, for which the Algerian government blamed the (nonviolent) Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylie (MAK). The MAK, it was asserted, was actively supported by the Zionist entity and “a North African state” (meaning Morocco). 44 Israel is presented as a destabilising factor in the region. The third identified current involved general rejection of any normalisation between Arab states and Israel, of the dropping of the Sahrawi by Arab states and the United States, as well as Israel’s attempts 42 “Affaire ‘Pegasus’: le Maroc continue à faire de l’espionnage au profit d’Israël”, Algérie Presse Service (APS), 19 July 2021, https://www.aps.dz/monde/125117-affaire-pegasus-le- maroc-continue-a-faire-de-l-espionnage-au-profit-d-israel. 43 “Explainer: Why Did Algeria Cut Diplomatic Ties with Morocco?” France24, 26 August 2021, https://www.france24. com/en/africa/20210826-explainer-why-did-algeria-cut- diplomatic-ties-with-morocco. 44 “Démantèlement d’un groupe terroriste appartenant au ‘MAK’”, APS, 13 October 2021, https://www.aps.dz/algerie/ 128855-demantelement-d-un-groupe-terroriste-appartenant- au-mak?tmpl=component&print=1. Figure 4 Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation Framings in news agency reports SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 17 to “infiltrate” Africa with the help of friendly Arab states. In this case the reports concentrated on Algerian (counter-)initiatives and diplomatic successes. For example, the withdrawal of Israel’s observer status at the African Union in 2023, for which Algeria had campaigned hard, was celebrated as a victory in its own right – and against Morocco. All in all, the official framing of Israel was that of an enemy seeking to destabilise Algeria and the entire region – including the Sahel – by manipulating and subverting neighbouring Morocco. The reporting shifted after 7 October. Now the overwhelming majority of all APS’s international reports concerned developments in and around Gaza. Morocco: Normalisation as opportunity, the king as peacemaker Unsurprisingly MAP’s reports reflect a significantly more positive perspective on Israel. Expressions such as “Zionist entity” were not found in the present dataset. More than 75 percent of the reports on Israel in the period under investigation were neutral or positive, while about 22 percent contained statements expressing (in some cases very forthright) criticism of Israel (see Figure 4). The concern to strike a balance between gradual normalisation with Israel and solidarity with the Palestinians was particularly conspicuous in the Moroccan reports. Here again, three patterns were found. Firstly, Morocco’s ongoing support for the Palestinians was emphasised, 45 accompanied by regular condemnation of Israeli policy towards them (often indirectly, by citing international human rights organisations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International). Secondly, the normalisation was praised – again via the voices of third parties lauding the wisdom, tolerance and openness of Morocco’s policies and in particular of the king. Those quoted ranged from representatives of Jewish communities in Australia, the United States and Europe through to Latin American states. 46 Thirdly cooperation with Israel was presented 45 “La Ligue arabe salue la décision de SM le Roi d’envoyer une aide médicale et humanitaire d’urgence au peuple palestinien”, Maghreb Arabe Presse (MAP), 19 May 2021, https:// www.mapnews.ma/fr/actualites/politique/la-ligue-arabe- salue-la-d%C3%A9cision-de-sm-le-roi-denvoyer-une-aide- m%C3%A9dicale-et. 46 “La communauté juive au Panama salue le leadership du Maroc dans la promotion de la paix”, MAP, 28 January 2021, https://www.mapnews.ma/fr/actualites/politique/laas an opportunity for Morocco, for example for tourism and investment. Particular emphasis was placed on cooperation in security and development. 47 The dominant message across all the MAP reports was that normalisation represented an opportunity not only for Morocco but for a just peace in the Middle East, and that the king played a positive and de-escalating role as a mediator in the Israel/Palestine conflict or could do so in the future. 48 That is also indicated by the analysis of terms that appeared systematically close to the word “Israel” in MAP texts. “Peace” for example came fourth. Since October 2023 there has been a significant cooling in the underlying tone of the agency reports on Israel with more emphasis on the suffering of the Palestinians and international criticism of Israel. Overall, however, even after 7 October the MAP data included strikingly little news about the war in Gaza, compared with Algeria and Tunisia. The palace, it appeared, was pursuing a strategy of diversion and focussing on topics of immediate public relevance within Morocco and the immediate neighbourhood: reconstruction after the severe earthquake, economic and development projects, and military attacks by the Polisario Front. Tunisia under “normalisation pressure” Although the analysis of reports published by the Tunisian news agency TAP was selective and exclusively qualitative, certain patterns can be identified. Until early 2023 Israel played no particularly conspicuous role in TAP’s reporting. That observation tallies with the systematic analysis of the written statements on the Facebook page of the Tunisian presidency, where Israel was not mentioned once between July 2021 and July 2022. A significant shift began in spring 2023. The president spoke increasingly often about Israel/Palestine communaut%c3%a9-juive-au-panama-salue-le-leadership-du- maroc-dans-la-promotion-de. 47 “ONU: le Maroc et Israël organisent une conférence de haut niveau sur la sécurité alimentaire et l’agriculture innovante”, MAP, 23 April 2021, https://www.mapnews.ma/fr/ actualites/economie/onu-le-maroc-et-isra%c3%abl-organisent- une-conf%c3%a9rence-de-haut-niveau-sur-la-s%c3%a9curit %c3%a9. 48 “Maroc/Israël: le rétablissement des relations est salutaire pour la cause palestinienne (député danois)”, MAP, 23 December 2020, https://www.mapnews.ma/fr/actualites/ politique/marocisra%c3%abl-le-r%c3%a9tablissement-des- relations-est-salutaire-pour-la-cause. Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 18 and following the appointment of a new director in March 2023 TAP also reported more frequently on Israel, with increasing use of the term “Zionist entity”. Three essential strands were identified: Firstly there were regular sharp condemnations of Israel, quoting presidential statements on the issue, and announcements of concrete aid for the Palestinians. 49 Secondly, the president and his associates were quoted denying rumours about normalisation with Israel and categorically rejecting any such move; even before 7 October 2023 there were announcements discussing legislation to criminalise any form of normalisation. Thirdly, in a development largely but not exclusively attributable to the attack on the synagogue in Djerba on 9 May 2023, TAP published reports that were obviously designed to distract attention from accusations of antisemitism (also directed against the president), 50 by focussing on Israeli violence against Palestinians and the anniversary of the Nakba. After 7 October TAP’s international coverage, like that of the APS, focussed very strongly on the Middle East with a special section dedicated to the “War against Gaza”. And likewise, there was no criticism of Hamas’s killing of civilians. European support for Israel, for instance in UN votes, was increasingly widely and critically reported. Fluctuating focus on Iran A great deal less was said officially about Iran than about Israel (see Figure 3). Out of 39,785 reports in APS and MAP just 254 mentioned Iran. The Moroccan agency in particular published very few reports on Iran, in contrast to the broader Moroccan media (especially in 2023). After 7 October there was little change in the editorial thrust of reporting on Iran, even if the frequency of reporting intensified, particularly in Tunisia. 49 For example TAP news agency, post dated 11 May 2023, https://twitter.com/TapNewsAgency/status/165642423520249 4467?s=20; post dated 15 May 2023, https://twitter.com/ TapNewsAgency/status/1658122250300665856?s=20. 50 Khalil Jelassi, “Kais Saied revient sur l’attaque de Djerba: ‘Ils évoquent l’antisémitisme alors que nous sommes au 21e siècle’”, La Presse, 12 May 2023, https://lapresse.tn/158147/ kais-saied- revient-sur-lattaque-de-djerba-ils-evoquent- lantisemitisme-alors-que-nous-sommes-au-21e-siecle/. Algeria: Iran as a “partner” with “significant overlapping interests” Most of the Algerian agency reports on Iran reflected a neutral perspective (see Figure 5). Four topics recurred. The first of these was announcements of cooperation, for example at meetings of OPEC and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum and in the context of state visits. Some of these reports were neutral in tone, while others emphasised shared interests and perspectives for example concerning the Israel/Palestine conflict and Syria. The second theme was declarations of solidarity in connection with the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC, by the United States in January 2020. Thirdly there was reporting on the Iranian nuclear programme, again a mix of neutral reporting, support for the Iranian line and criticism of the P5+1. And finally, Iran was frequently mentioned in connection with recalling Algeria’s role in the liberation of the hostages held in the US embassy in Tehran in 1981. 51 What the texts do not indicate is any special proximity between the two countries. The list of terms that appear systematically close to “Iran” is led by “light” (as an oil-related term) followed by “Soleimani” and “hostages”. Morocco: Iran as “supporter of Morocco’s adversaries” There were similarly obvious themes in the few MAP reports mentioning Iran. The first of these concerned the United States’ relationship with Iran, for example the imposition of US sanctions against Iran and the consequences of American elections for Iran. Secondly, Iran was mentioned in the context of meetings of the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, often suggesting a negative mood towards Iran within those organisations. Thirdly, there were frequent reports on Iranian support for the Polisario Front via Hezbollah, specifically deliveries of Iranian arms (especially drones), as well as reports on Algerian- Iranian cooperation. “Hezbollah” was conspicuously dominant among the terms appearing systematically close to “Iran” in MAP reports. “Nuclear” came a distant second, followed by “Arab” and “China”. 51 “41 ans après la libération des otages US … Rétrospective des efforts de la diplomatie algérienne”, APS, 20 January 2022, https://www.aps.dz/algerie/134527-41-ans-apres-la- liberation-des-otages-americains-retrospective-des-efforts-de- la-diplomatie-algerienne-dans-le-reglement-des-crises. Fields of political instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 19 Tunisia: Iran as a distant “partner” Because the analysis of the TAP reports was selective and purely qualitative it is only possible to identify broad trends. These indicate that Iran did not play a significant role in the reports until 2023. From 2023, though, Iran was increasingly mentioned in TAP reports and presidential communications. These tended to be positively worded statements on official visits and planned cooperation between Tunisia and Iran. Reporting on Iran proliferated following the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s massive military operations in Gaza On 8 October 2023 TAP ran two reports on Iranian statements on the Palestinians’ right to self-defence. 52 The frequency of reporting also reflected increasing high-level interaction, such as a meeting of the presidents of both countries in Algiers at the Summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in March 2024, or Kais Saied’s trip to Iran after President Raisi’s death in May 2024. 52 “L’Iran soutient la ‚légitime défense‘ des Palestiniens – Raïssi”, Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, 8 October 2023, https:// www.tap.info.tn/fr/Portail-Monde/16694428-l-iran-soutient-la, und “L’Iran soutient le droit de la Palestine à se défendre contre Israël, selon le président iranien”, Agence Tunis Afrique Presse, 8 October 2023, https://www.tap.info.tn/fr/Portail- Monde/16695585-l-iran-soutient-le. Fields of political instrumentalisation Analysis of the news agency reports reveals a clear political slant in relation to Israel and a less obvious one vis-à-vis Iran. This phenomenon is often even clearer in the broader media landscape – which is more or less exclusively pro-government in Algeria and Morocco, where those critical journalists who do not practise self-censorship are either in prison or in exile. Even in Tunisia, where there was significant freedom of expression until 2021, less than a handful of independent media platforms remain. 53 Israel and Iran serve as vehicles for legitimising certain domestic policies. Algerian, Moroccan (and to a certain extent also Tunisian) supporters of their respective governments employ similar tropes to the news agencies when they write about Israel and Iran on social media. But they often polemicise wildly about (real or alleged) Israeli and Iranian presence and activities. Here, as will be shown in the following, they draw on and exaggerate the political stances conveyed by the news agencies. 53 Reporters Without Borders, 2023 World Press Freedom Index, https://rsf.org/en/2023-world-press-freedom-index- journalism-threatened-fake-content-industry. Figure 5 Fields of political instrumentalisation Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 20 This is very clearly not in the first place about Israel and Iran at all; both are instrumentalised to legitimise the respective regime internally, to demonise the neighbouring state (in the cases of Algeria and Morocco) and for nation-branding. Distracting from problems, delegitimising political adversaries While Maghrebi leaders’ polemics against Israel and ostentatious solidarity with the Palestinians tend to be genuine, they are also ideal for distracting attention from problems at home. The paradigmatic case is the strategies of the Tunisian president and government after 7 October. Two days after Hamas’s attack on Israel the Tunisian education ministry called on all Tunisian schools to fly the Palestinian flag and sing the Palestinian national anthem, 54 and for weeks if not months the president’s public communication was dominated by the events in Gaza and anti-Zionist rhetoric. This took the country’s considerable domestic political problems – at least temporarily – out of the national headlines: the cost and availability of basic foodstuffs, great migration pressure, imprisonment of leading opposition figures, and growing repression of civil society and restrictions on freedom of expression. Opposition actors such as Ennahda have also employed normalisation as a stick to beat the president, accusing him of seeking diplomatic relations with Israel. 55 Conversely, the leader of the PDL (Parti destourien libre), which in recent years has been by far the most popular party in opinion polls, accused both the president and Ennahda of being too close to Iran in order to discredit them among secular and (Sunni) conservative groups. 56 In Algeria the “Zionist threat” – now just across the border in Morocco – served to unite the population behind the army, to justify steeply rising 54 “Tunisia-Palestinian Flag and Anthem in All Tunesian Schools”, Tunisie Numérique, 8 October 2023, https://newstunisia.tunisienumerique.com/tunisia-palestinian-flag-and- anthem-in-all-tunisian-schools/. 55 “Tunisian ‘Ennahda’: Celebration of occupying state confirms falsity of Saied’s slogan equating normalisation with high treason” (author’s translation from Arabic), https://bitly.ws/3d2AF. 56 “Le PDL refuse les références chiites utilisées par Kaïs Saïed dans ses discours”, Business News, 19 April 2022, https://www.businessnews.com.tn/le-pdl-refuse-les-references- iites-utilisees-par-kais-saied-dans-ses-discours,520,118464,3. defence spending, and to discredit opposition actors (particularly activists of the so-called Hirak movement) as a French-Moroccan-Zionist–controlled fifth column. 57 The prime targets were the Rachad movement, which includes actors from the former FIS Party, and the Kabyle separatist movement MAK. MAK was accused of starting forest fires on behalf of Morocco, 58 and its leader faced even greater disdain on (social) media platforms after 7 October for his relations with Israel. 59 These two movements, which are classed as terrorist in Algeria, were also involved in the Hirak, so exaggerating their limited role in it served to weaken the Hirak overall and legitimise the repression of activists. After 7 October, when the government kept a very tight lid on demonstrations, Moroccan news outlets published a video in which an Algerian politician claimed that proponents of normalisation had gained a foothold within the Algerian regime. In other words, all sides exploited Israel to delegitimise their political adversaries. 60 Conversely Morocco exhibited little tolerance of criticism of normalisation before 7 October 2023, in particular if it implicated the king. Imprisonment was a potential consequence. 61 And because the Trump deal tied normalisation with Israel to US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, serious criticism of the deal in Morocco was largely impossible anyway. 62 At least until 7 October these strategies also succeeded in weakening the monarchy’s potentially strongest opponent, the Islamist PJD. It was the then PJD prime minister who had to sign the normalisation agreement with Israel, which was especially strongly rejected by his own party’s supporters. Their disappointment can be regarded as one reason for the PJD’s election defeat in 2021. When the PJD’s leader 57 Post by Adlene Mohammedi, 5 June 2023, https://x.com/ AdleneMo/status/1665688078730551298?s=20. 58 Shaquile Goff, “Algerian President Claims Morocco Helped Cause Forest Fires in Algeria”, Morocco World News, 18 August 2021, https://bitly.ws/3d2BZ. 59 Post by TSA Algérie, 8 October 2023, https://x.com/ TSAlgerie/status/1711065991122202890?s=20. 60 Post by Morocco Intelligence, 16 October 2023, https:// x.com/MoroccoIntel/status/1713843108809519406?s=20. 61 “Au Maroc, un homme condamné à cinq ans de prison pour ‘offense à la monarchie’ après des posts sur Facebook”, Le Monde, 3 August 2023, https://bitly.ws/3d2Bh. 62 Human Rights Watch, “Morocco and Western Sahara – Events of 2022”, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2023/ country-chapters/morocco-and-western-sahara. Fields of political instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 21 criticised Morocco’s policy of normalisation with Israel as irresponsible in March 2023 and called for greater support for the Palestinians, he was slapped down by the palace and the PJD had to walk his statement back. The escalation of violence post–7 October has put wind back in the PJD’s sails and it felt strong enough to unequivocally demand the termination of relations with Israel. 63 This is likely to have more than restored its popularity. Demonising the neighbour Both Morocco and Algeria exploit Israel and Iran to discredit each other domestically and in the international arena. The facts tend to be secondary. On an almost daily basis pro-government Moroccan and Algerian (social) media accounts polemicise against each other, veering into conspiracy theories and conjuring up dangers. Here there appears to be a strong element of trouble-stirring to distract from domestic problems: evoking external threat creates cohesion between leaders and populations. It also lays the groundwork for justification or even expansion of the already strong security apparatuses. For example, Algerian media published statements by Moroccan opponents of normalisation who feared that the Israeli state “is being transferred to Morocco”, 64 wrote about joint Israeli-Moroccan plans in Africa, 65 and accused Israel and Morocco of having successfully put pressure on India to prevent Algeria being invited to join BRICS. 66 When Algeria reported that the Israeli, French and Moroccan intelligence ser- 63 “Moroccan Palace Asks Islamist Party to Stop Criticizing Ties with Israel”, Reuters, 13 March 2023, https://www.reuters. com/world/middle-east/moroccan-palace-asks-islamist-party- stop-criticizing-ties-with-israel-2023-03-13/, Safaa Kasraoui, “PJD Calls on Morocco’s Government to Cut Ties with Israel”, Morocco World News, 13 November 2023, https://www.morocco worldnews.com/2023/11/358929/pjd-calls-on-moroccos- government-to-cut-ties-with-israel. 64 Hasna Yacoub, “Israël phagocyte le makhzen”, L’Expression, 4 January 2021, https://www.lexpressiondz.com/ nationale/israel-phagocyte-le-makhzen-339406. 65 For typical examples from Algeria and Morocco see “L’entité sioniste et le Maroc veulent contrecarrer l’Algérie en Afrique”, APS, 17 August 2021, https://www.aps.dz/algerie/ 126285-l-entite-sioniste-et-le-maroc-veulent-contrecarrer-l- algerie-en-afrique. 66 Saïd Boucetta, “Un veto indien ferme contre l’Algérie”, L’Expression, 31 August 2023, https://www.lexpressiondz.com/ nationale/un-veto-indien-ferme-contre-l-algerie-372916. vices were coordinating to destabilise Algerian provinces and Sahel states, the Moroccan press accused Algeria the very next day of lying and inventing anti- Moroccan conspiracies. 67 It tends to be difficult or impossible to ascertain the truth of such claims. The escalation of the Israel/Palestine conflict is instrumentalised against Maghreb neighbours. The escalation in Gaza in October 2023 was also exploited to the same ends. Algerian and Tunisian (social) media crowed over the predicament Morocco now found itself in. 68 In response to Morocco’s verbal distancing from Israel, Algerian media commented that as a colonial state itself (in other words, illegally occupying Western Sahara), Morocco was in no position to make accusations against another colonial state, namely Israel. 69 Moroccan media retorted that demonstrations in solidarity with the Palestinians were permitted in Morocco – unlike in Algeria. It is quite possible that that was one factor motivating Algeria to organise quasi-state demonstrations before the end of October 2023. Moroccan media and monarchy-adjacent elites regularly conjure the Iranian threat and warn of a Iran-Hezbollah-Algeria-Polisario axis that also presents a threat to the West. 70 Reports of this kind can also serve, especially post–7 October, to justify Morocco’s highly controversial decision to maintain relations with Israel. Our analysis of the hashtag “Algeria is an Iranian agent” ( رئازجلا_ليمع_نارياي ) between 1 June 2020 and 30 January 2023 found that a majority of the accounts that provided their location were in Morocco (see Figure 6). Tunisia was also dragged in. In August 2023 Abdelkader Bengrina, former minister and leader of an 67 “Complot France-Maroc-Israël contre l’Algérie: Un mensonge de plus du régime algérien”, Hespress, 1 June 2023, https://fr.hespress.com/316803-complot-france-maroc-israel- contre-lalgerie-un-mensonge-de-plus-du-regime-algerien.html. 68 Post by TSA Algérie, 11 October 2023, https://twitter. com/TSAlgerie/status/1712153088906105091. 69 Post by TSA Algérie, 6 November 2023, https://x.com/ TSAlgerie/status/1721435013743251746?s=20. 70 Post by Lahcen Haddad, 31 October 2023, https://x.com/ Lahcenhaddad/status/1719241838156976146?s=20, Mohamed Jaouad El Kanabi, “Les drones iraniens fournis au polisario s’invitent au Parlement britannique”, Hespress, 12 July 2023, https://fr.hespress.com/322338-les-drones-iraniens-fournis-au- polisario-sinvitent-au-parlement-britannique.html. Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 22 Algerian Islamist party, announced that Tunisia would soon normalise its relations with Israel, claiming that Tunisian officials had made multiple visits to Israel to prepare the move. 71 Algerian media cited high-level visits from Saudi Arabia and the UAE at which, they alleged, pressure had been placed on Tunisia. In late August 2023 the Algerian foreign minister announced at a press conference that Tunisia had assured Algeria that it continued to reject normalisation. Moroccan media also commented on the rumours, but suggested that the Tunisian president was in fact 71 Riyad Hamadi “Bengrina: ‘La Tunisie va normaliser ses relations avec Israël’”, TSA, 13 August 2023, https://www.tsaalgerie.com/bengrina-la-tunisie-va-normaliser-ses-relations- avec-israel/. increasingly close to Iran and influenced by advisers aligned with the Shiite camp. 72 Nation-branding and block-building All three Maghreb states demonstratively instrumentalise their own and their neighbours’ relations with Israel and Iran to position themselves in the international arena and sharpen their geopolitical profile. 72 Bachir Abdallah, “Normalisation avec Israël: la Tunisie entre rumeurs et réalités”, Maroc Diplomatique, 16 August 2023, https://maroc-diplomatique.net/normalisation-avec- israel-la-tunisie-entre-rumeurs-et-realites/, “Kais Saied, un président sous influence”, MAP, 1 September 2022, https:// www.mapnews.ma/fr/actualites/politique/kais-saied-un- pr%C3%A9sident-sous-influence. Figure 6 Official Framings and Political Instrumentalisation Sentiment on Israel: Significant correspondence with official framings SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 29 Before October 2023 there were in fact lively debates over Israel, which diverged from the increasingly clear presidential framings or discussed Israel’s instrumentalisation. Debates over normalisation were, at least before 7 October, not least also a proxy for struggles over freedom of expression and cultural pluralism. For example, in spring 2023 more than six hundred academics and civil society figures signed a petition for the defence of academic freedoms in Tunisia. 106 This occurred after Manouba University announced it was withdrawing the title of professor emeritus from an internationally renowned historian on the grounds that he had participated in a colloquium in Paris where Israeli researchers had also been present. Moreover, the question of whether Tunisian sportspeople should compete against Israelis is a recurring topic of debate. 107 Among the elites it was an open secret that certain businesspeople and artists had travelled to Israel. 108 Tunisia has also seen recurring discussions concerning antisemitism, for example in the context of the shooting at the synagogue in Djerba in 2023. 109 In response to reports that one of the victims was a Tunisian-Israeli dual citizen, social media posts called for the victim’s Tunisian family to be deported or demanded that they decide whether they were Israeli or Tunisian, Jewish or non-Jewish. 110 This provoked a relatively sophisticated discussion about racism and antisemitism. 111 Certain actors equate (Tunisian-) Jewish with Zionist, as seen in November 2022 when an event co-organised by the German Rosa Luxemburg Foundation on topics including the Judeo-Tuni- 106 “Affaire Kazdaghli: une pétition pour la défense des libertés académiques”, Business News, 16 April 2023, https:// www.businessnews.com.tn/affaire-kazdaghli--une-petition- pour-la-defense-des-libertes-academiques,520,128470,3. 107 “Mondial U20: En cas de Tunisie – Israël en quarts de finale! Que faire?” webdo, 29 May 2023, https://www.webdo. tn/fr/actualite/sport/mondial-u20-en-cas-de-tunisie-israel-en- quarts-de-finale-que-faire/206145. 108 Interviews conducted by the author in Tunis between 2005 and 2023. 109 Doan Bui, “Tunisie: ‘Il y a une espèce de gangrène populiste’”, L’Obs, 22 May 2023, https://www.nouvelobs. com/monde/20230522.OBS73615/tunisie-il-y-a-une-espece-de- gangrene-populiste.html. 110 Post by Wejdene Bouabdallah, 13 May 2023, https:// x.com/tounsiahourra/status/1657343153156898822?s=20. 111 Mirco Keilberth, “Tunesier gegen Tunesier”, Süddeutsche Zeitung, 15 May 2023, https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ djerba-tunesien-antijudaismus-1.5859078. sian language was disrupted by members of the “National Commission to Fight Normalisation and Zionism” shouting racist slogans, insulting the organisers and condemning what they regarded as normalisation with the “Zionist entity” under the guise of academic freedom. 112 This in turn elicited a response from activists for cultural pluralism and freedom of expression. 113 Those voices largely fell silent after 7 October. While 66 percent of Tunisians favoured a two-state solution directly before 7 October, the figure had fallen to 50 percent by the end of October. At the same time support for armed resistance rose, in some cases even including dissolution of the state of Israel. 114 The narrowing of the discourse after 7 October was also reflected on X, where barely a handful of accounts bucked the trend. For example, posts pointed out the paradox that many Tunisians hated the Islamist Ennahda and its leadership but blindly celebrated the Islamist Hamas, or they noted that the president advocated freedom for the Palestinians but kept political prisoners himself, or they simply highlighted the instrumentalisation of Palestine. 115 President Saied will have a hard time putting the genie back in the bottle. The data gathered daily by Arab Barometer after 7 October suggests that it was not in the first place the Hamas attacks that caused these changes but the subsequent Israeli reactions. It remains unclear to what extent they were also a consequence of the president’s populist official rhetoric or whether the president was successfully riding a wave of deeply rooted anti-Israeli sentiment. But the question arises whether the president will be able to control the 112 “From House of Novel to National Book House: Attempting a cultural normalisation in Tunisia” (author’s translation from Arabic), Alchourouk, 10 November 2023, https://bit.ly/4biLPPg. 113 Communiqué from the organisation Nous Tous, 11 November 2022 https://m.facebook.com/photo/?fbid= 140420845429155&set=ecnf.100083837200814. 114 Robbins et al., “How the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza Is Changing Arab Views” (see note 101). 115 Post by Gargabil, 10 October 2023; https://x.com/ Gargabil/status/1711724850727862673?s=20; post by Sentenza, 24 October 2023, https://x.com/RealSentenza/status/ 1716709420439142836?s=20; post by Nessryne J, 3 November 2023, https://x.com/sasoukee/status/1720415577007595863? s=20. The Resonance and Limits of Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 30 spirits he has summoned. For example, when he withdrew the draft law on “criminalising normalisation” in November 2023 he found himself confronted with protests from his own otherwise completely loyal camp. Limits to the instrumentalisation of Palestinian solidarity also became apparent. Attempts to exploit it ahead of the planned local elections at the end of 2023 apparently had no noteworthy mobilising effect: the turnout was just as low as in the parliamentary elections a year earlier. Iran: More scepticism than in the official framings It is harder to judge the resonance of the official framings on Iran, and more generally public sentiment visà-vis Iran. Iran is less present in the public discourse, and the positions of central political actors – with the exception of Morocco’s official position and a few Tunisian politicians and civil society actors. Surveys asking specifically about attitudes to Iran are rare in the Maghreb. Moreover, although many in the Maghreb sympathise with Iran’s anti-imperialist and anti-Israeli stance they tend not to do so openly for fear of coming under suspicion of Shiite leanings or because Iran is “not one of us” (i.e., not an Arab country). 116 Those surveys that do deal specifically with Iran or compare Iran with other regional and international actors suggest considerable levels of distrust. A survey in 2019/2020 in all three Maghreb states found that about half the respondents in Tunisia and considerably more in Algeria and Morocco saw Iranian policies 116 Author’s interviews with academics, politicians, journalists and civil society activists, Tunis and Algiers, 2023. as “certainly” or “to an extent” a threat to security and stability in “the Arab region” (see Figure 11). However, since 7 October there have also been also signs that Iran has gained a degree of sympathy, not least on the basis that “my enemy’s enemy is my friend”. Morocco: Minor deviations from the official framing Morocco’s official framing of Iran as a hostile actor appeared at least partially successful. The more recent surveys in particular reveal a rather critical view of Iran. For example, in 2022 the Arab Barometer presented participants with a list of potential threats to national security interests. It found that Israel and Iran were perceived as presenting the greatest danger (see Figure 12). The Iranian nuclear programme and “Iranian influence in the region” occupied second and third place on the list. 117 But the list was headed by “Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories”. In a 2022 survey in Morocco on the popularity of the foreign policy of regional and international heads of state the Iranian Ali Khamenei came last behind Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. Joe Biden’s foreign policy found twice as many supporters as Ali Khamenei’s. 118 This might be associated with the largely negative official representations of Iran in Morocco, but could also have to do with other factors such as solidarity in parts of Moroccan society with opposition actors and women in Iran. 119 117 Arab Barometer VII, Morocco Report (October 2022), 37, https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/ABVII_ Morocco_Report-ENG.pdf. 118 Ibid., 39. 119 During the Iranian protests in autumn 2022 there were also demonstrations of solidarity with Iranian women Figure 11 The Resonance and Limits of Instrumentalisation Iran: More scepticism than in the official framings SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 31 In the Twitter analysis negative sentiment on Iran was more prevalent than in the (few) MAP reports. Only about 5 percent of the tweets reflected a positive perspective on Iran while almost 60 percent were negative and about 30 percent neutral (see Figure 13). Any positive perspectives were connected with the failure of Arab states to support Palestine. For example, it was stated that Hamas could not be condemned for turning to Iran after it had been abandoned by Arab states normalising their relations with Israel. Or it was argued that it was divisions between Arabs that made Iran strong. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC, by the United States in January 2020 was also condemned. The dominant theme of negative Moroccan tweets on Iran were religion (specifically rejection of Shiite Islam), the Iranian stance on Western Sahara, and Iran’s negative influence in the region through Hezbollah and other actors in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen. Outside of the analysed period there were also tweets/posts connecting Russia, Algeria and Iran, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 120 Reports about dangers emanating from Iran, such as drones supplied to the Polisario, also in Morocco. Hind El Grari, “Journée nationale des droits des femmes: des Marocaines se coupent les cheveux en soutien aux Iraniennes”, le Desk, 10 October 2022, https://ledesk.ma/ encontinu/journee-nationale-des-droits-des-femmes-les-maro caines-se-coupent-les-cheveux-en-soutien-aux-iraniennes/. 120 Post by Lahcen Haddad, 27 February 2023, https://x. com/Lahcenhaddad/status/1630225849474580482?s=20. appeared regularly on social media and were often specifically addressed to international actors. 121 The results were very different when Iran and Israel were compared directly. Although the Moroccan public’s view of the danger posed to the region by Iran was very close to the official discourse, 27 percent of Moroccan respondents in a 2020 survey regarded Israel as the greatest danger to their country while only 2 percent named Iran; the rest were distributed among other states. 122 This suggests that the official framing, which propagated normalisation with Israel and no relations with Iran, was not terribly successful. It is also worth mentioning that the most important political parties said nothing at all about Iran on their Facebook pages in the period studied. There is insufficient reliable data to say whether 7 October caused any shifts in mood concerning Iran. The official framing of Iran as an enemy might deter Moroccans from speaking completely freely about the question. But we can assume that Morocco’s framing of Iran’s role in the Maghreb and the Sahel found (more) resonance in Europe after 7 October. As already mentioned, even before 7 October numerous European media outlets were interested in reports that Iran and Hezbollah were supporting the Polisario Front via Algeria. The fact that the Qatargate corrup- 121 Post by Ibti____sam, 8 March 2023, https://twitter.com/ IbtiChitana/status/1633428654632976384. 122 “Does Iran Pose Greater Threat to the Region than Israel? Here Is What Arab Citizens Think”, Arab Barometer, 3 January 2020, https://www.arabbarometer.org/2020/01/israel- or-iran-which-is-the-greater-perceived-threat-copy/. Figure 12 Iran: More scepticism than in the official framings The Resonance and Limits of Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 32 tion scandal in the European Parliament, in which Morocco was also implicated, had no meaningful impact on Euro-Moroccan cooperation is probably attributable not least to Rabat’s anti-Iranian and pro- Western positions. Algeria: Considerable divergence from the official discourse While the official framing of Iran in Algeria was neutral to positive, surveys revealed a more mixed picture. For example, 55 percent of those surveyed believed that Iran was “certainly” or “to an extent” a threat to the “Arab region” (see Figure 11). The proportion that were certain that Iran posed no danger was lowest in Algeria with 5 percent. In another survey, also from 2019, Iran came last in the list of nations with which the surveyed Algerians wished to see closer relations – behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. This poor ranking contrasted with Iran’s status as a promising cooperation partner in the APS agency reports. In other words, the factual prevailed: there is very little economic exchange between the two (partly on account of the international sanctions) and the broader population has no tangible reason to regard Iran as an attractive economic partner. Iran also appeared to be very marginal to the Algerian political parties. Our analysis of the Facebook pages of five of the most important Algerian political parties between January 2021 and July 2022 found not a single post on Iran. Algerian perspectives on Iran on Twitter diverged from the official line. Less than 10 percent of the tweets reflected a positive perspective, just over half were neutral and more than 30 percent critical. Iran’s anti- American and anti-Moroccan stances were viewed positively by Algerian Twitter accounts. Critical tweets mentioned the Iranian dictatorship, Hezbollah’s crimes in Syria, the arming of the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iran’s failure to provide effective support for Hamas against Israel. At least the latter is likely to have shifted since 7 October 2023. Implicit anti-Shiite sentiment played a role in the negative perspectives on Iran, often without Iran being named explicitly. 123 Although Shiite proselytising did not feature in APS reporting in the analysed period it has frequently made headlines over the past decade. Above all Salafists, as ultra-conservative Sunnis, have campaigned on this issue. Often their criticism was directed not specifically at Iran but at Shiites across the entire MENA region, for example where a preacher issued a fatwah against watching Shiite television stations. 124 But the official measures, such as closing Iranian stands and seizing books at the Algerian book fair, demonstrate that Iran was the principal target. 125 The differences between public opinion and official framing reveal something of the subtext of the framing. While the official framing emphasised cooperation and agreement with Iran in international and ideological questions, measures against Shiite proselytising and culture communicated distrust. This might explain why Iran did not feature very prominently in public discourse even after 7 October. 123 See the following Tweet by a well-known Salafist preacher, https://twitter.com/Fawaid_Djazair/status/ 1477258749060464643. 124 “Le jugement relatif au fait de regarder les chaînes de télévision chiites”, official website of Sheikh Mohamed Ali Ferkous, 8 July 2011, https://ferkous.com/home/?q=fr/artmois-fr-72. 125 See for example https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24/ posts/10156264743101936/?locale=fr_FR. Figure 13 The Resonance and Limits of Instrumentalisation Iran: More scepticism than in the official framings SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 33 Tunisia: Substantial deviation from presidential messaging pre–7 October In Tunisia – at least before 7 October – the public sentiment on Iran deviated from the rather positive signals given by the president. In 2020 31 percent of Tunisians were “certain” that Iran presented a threat to the “Arab region”, 29 percent “to a certain extent”, and only 12 percent said “certainly not” (see Figure 11). In a survey in Tunisia on the MENA policies of regional heads of state in 2022 revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei came last, a long way behind the Saudi, Emirati and Syrian heads of state. 126 In the Twitter analysis almost half the Tunisian tweets were critical towards Iran, roughly 13 percent reflected a positive perspective and the rest were neutral. Among the accounts that were positive, Iran’s support for the Palestinians and strong stance against Israel were the most prominent themes. Iran’s support for the Yemeni Houthis and their attacks on Saudi Arabia featured heavily in the negative accounts. Unlike Algeria and Morocco, Tunisia has one party that massively criticised Iran and instrumentalised this for domestic gain: the radical secular Parti destourien libre (PDL). For example in the run-up to the constitutional referendum in summer 2022, the PDL accused the president of being inspired by the Shiite religion and the authority enjoyed by Ayatollah Khomeini to nudge the Tunisian system towards Iran and therefore seeking to suppress democracy and civil liberties. 127 About a decade earlier the “League of Struggle against Shiism” called for the Iranian cultural centre to be closed 128 and in 2018 a “League to Combat the Shiite Wave” appeared in the media. 129 Whereas the mobilisation against Iran in Algeria was above all a Salafist affair, in Tunisia it was secular non-left forces that accused Iran of interference or 126 “Citizens Lukewarm on Leaders’ Cold War”, Arab Barometer, 15 September 2022, https://www.arabbarometer.org/ 2022/09/citizens-lukewarm-on-leaders-cold-war/. 127 Communiqué from the organisation Nous Tous, 11 November 2022, https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid= 516418629852896&set=a.416536273174466. 128 “La ligue pour la lutte contre le chiisme appelle à la fermeture du centre culturel iranien”, Business News, 21 August 2012, https://www.businessnews.com.tn/la-ligue- pour-la-lutte-contre-le-iisme-appelle-a-la-fermeture-du- centre-culturel-iranien,520,32972,3. 129 “Naissance de la ligue tunisienne pour la lutte contre la marée chiite”, Tuniscope, 6 March 2018, https://www. tuniscope.com/article/12819/actualites/bien-etre/chiite-275910. proselytising. In the course of the autumn 2022 protests in Iran various platforms associated with these political currents carried positive reports about Tunisian NGOs demonstrating against the oppression of Iranian women (including in front of the Iranian cultural centre). 130 Iran did enjoy support from other parties, however. In February 2023 a photograph of Rachid Ghannouchi, the president of the Islamist Ennahda party, at the Iranian embassy for the anniversary of Iranian revolution created a storm on social media. The photo showed him cutting a cake together with the leader of a left-wing opposition party and a former trade union functionary who the president had recently appointed to the cabinet. 131 A certain “League for Tolerance”, which was conspicuously active until 2021, was also openly pro-Iranian. Its statements exhibited closeness to Shiite actors and Iran and argued vehemently against any form of normalisation with Israel. 132 Positive perspectives on Iran proliferated after 7 October. In Arab Barometer surveys three weeks before 7 October 29 percent of Tunisians were positive about Khamenei’s foreign policy. By the end of October 2023 the figure had risen to 41 percent. And there were more pro-Iranian posts on social media. Sometimes support was expressed obliquely, for example when a prominent supporter of Kais Saied praised Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. 133 In April 2024, celebrations of Iran’s attack on Israel appeared to be widespread on social media, while criticism of the attacks was much less visible. 134 This suggested that the debates were shifting closer to the president’s official line. 130 “Un collectif d’associations organise une marche de soutien aux Iraniennes”, Business News, 29 September 2022, https://www.businessnews.com.tn/un-collectif-dassociations- organise-une-mare-de-soutien-aux-iraniennes,520,123243,3. 131 Dahmani, “Tunisie: Kaïs Saïed, l’Iran et le chiisme” (see note 25). 132 Its website was no longer functional in November 2023, but the calls can still be found on other platforms. https://directinfo.webmanagercenter.com/Mots-Clefs/liguetunisienne-pour-la-tolerance/. 133 Beat Stauffer, “‘Ihr werdet nicht mehr in Ruhe leben können!’”, Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 21 November 2023, https:// www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-krieg-um-gaza-laesst-auch-im- maghreb-die-emotionen-hochgehen-ld.1765034. 134 For an example of a typical post celebrating the attack on 13/14 April 2024, see https://www.facebook.com/ 100008437817368/videos/1170408394157309. Public Sentiment and Risks of Its Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 34 The political instrumentalisation of public sentiment and international attitudes to Israel and Iran described above comes with obvious risks in the Maghreb. Not least, it also impacts on Europe’s interests and reputation in the region. Deepening authoritarian practices Authoritarian Arab rulers have long stoked and instrumentalised the popular mood on Israel and Iran for their own domestic political ends. Phases of (at least slightly) greater political freedom have seen voices and practices emerge in all three Maghreb states that deviate from the official framing on Israel and Iran to different degrees. The analysis laid out in this study shows how escalations in the Israel/Palestine conflict and shifting geopolitical alliances lead to rejection and suppression of diverging opinions. A heated mood in the broader population makes it easier for decision-makers to exploit Israel and Iran in order to restrict freedom of expression, freedom of religion and/or academic freedom in the interests of national security or to discredit diverging voices as enemies of the state. All this occurs with the aim of further consolidating their own authoritarian rule and justifying the expansion of security and surveillance apparatuses. Exacerbating regional and international tensions As well as conducting propaganda wars in which Israel and Iran play prominent roles, Algeria and Morocco also justify their arms race with the danger posed by their neighbour (and in the case of Morocco, by the Polisario Front) which they connect directly or indirectly with Israel or Iran. Algeria almost doubled its defence budget in 2023, 135 while Morocco announced it would be increasing its military spending by almost US$500 million in 2024. 136 Algerian and Moroccan sabre-rattling creates a danger of unintended escalation. While neither side is genuinely seeking military confrontation, the sabre-rattling creates a real danger of unintended escalation. The conflict between Algeria and Morocco is rooted above all in the Western Sahara question, but has also been driven in recent times by the two states’ competition over influence in and relationships with the states of Sub-Saharan Africa. 137 Morocco’s normalisation with Israel has widened the rift and, given that the Tunisian president has also taken a determinedly anti-normalisa- tion line, Maghrebi integration – which has been essentially deadlocked for years – has become an even more illusory prospect. The respective stances of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia on Israel and Iran can also negatively influence processes in international organisations and European institutions. For examples the struggle over Israel’s observer status at the AU, where Algeria lobbied massively, absorbed capacities at the AU and distracted attention from 135 “Dépenses militaires : flambée en Algérie, baisse au Maroc”, Jeune Afrique, 24 April 2024, https://www.jeune afrique.com/1561678/politique/depenses-militaires-flambee- en-algerie-baisse-au-maroc/. 136 Safaa Kasraoui, “Morocco’s 2024 Finance Bill Allocates $12 Billion for Defense”, Morocco World News, 23 October 2023, https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/10/358504/ morocco-s-2024-finance-bill-allocates-12-billion-for-defense. 137 Isabelle Werenfels, Maghrebi Rivalries over Sub-Saharan Africa: Algeria and Tunisia Seeking to Keep Up with Morocco, SWP Comment 54/2020 (Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, November 2020), doi: 10.18449/2020C54. Public Sentiment and Risks of Its Instrumentalisation Reinforcing anti-Western sovereignty discourses SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 35 more pressing issues. 138 Israel and Iran also play a role in Maghreb lobbying in the EU – especially by Morocco, which can count on goodwill on account of its positions towards the two states. Reinforcing anti-Western sovereignty discourses The starkly diverging attitudes to Israel in the Maghreb and Europe since 7 October 2023 demonstrate more clearly than ever before the magnitude of the gulf between Maghrebi popular opinion and official views in many European countries on this issue. This exacerbates existing tensions. In the Maghreb the reactions of some European states (including related domestic measures) to the Hamas massacre and Israel’s massive response are perceived as an affront not only against the Palestinians, but more broadly against all Muslims. The notion that the West exhibits double standards on Ukraine and Palestine is shared by broad sections of Maghrebi societies. 139 Arab nationalist, Islamist and radical left-wing actors demand the complete “decolonisation” of Palestine and mobilise against European support for Israel. In Tunisia anger has also been directed at German institutions in the country, 140 on account of Germany’s unequivocal support for Israel’s right to defend itself militarily. Tunisian civil society representatives have complained that German political foundations in Israel were permitted to publicly express pro-Israeli positions but staff of the same organisations in Tunisia were not allowed to voice solidarity with Palestine in the name of the foundations. 141 This illustrates well how deeply the issue of Israel affects Euro-Magh- reb relations. Europe’s criticisms of Iran, on the other hand, for example following Tehran’s violent suppression of protests in autumn 2022, have elicited little in the way of public criticism in the Maghreb. This reflects the described ambivalences with respect to Iran. Its 138 “Algeria Takes Its Anti-normalisation Fight to AU”, Arab Weekly, 3 February 2022, https://thearabweekly.com/ algeria-takes-its-anti-normalisation-fight-au. 139 Interviews by the author in Algiers and Tunis in 2022 and 2023, and with Moroccan actors in Berlin, Brussels and Madrid in 2023. 140 Mirco Keilberth, “Deutsche Botschaft unbeliebt”, TAZ, 31 October 2023, https://taz.de/Nahost-Konflikt-in-Tunesien/ !5970088/. 141 Interviews in Tunis, December 2023. worldview is shared, especially on Palestine, but it is not part of the Arab world. Ultimately, its regional ambitions and potential for meddling are feared. Europe: Trends to support and to counteract Until a few years ago European foreign policy, security and development actors still enjoyed the luxury of being able to ignore discursive polarisation, political instrumentalisation and disinformation concerning Israel and Iran in the Maghreb. There were no repercussions for Europe when Morocco broke off relations with Iran for example. The situation gradually began to shift with Morocco’s normalisation of relations with Israel at the end of 2020. European actors had to realise that this development further exacerbated the existing tensions between Algeria and Morocco and was a trigger (or at least a pretext) for Algeria to break off diplomatic relations with Morocco. As the present study has demonstrated, the pre-existing aggressive rhetoric between the two states has been aggravated by Israel’s presence in Morocco and Algeria’s instrumentalisation thereof. Europe cannot avoid facing the Maghreb/Israel complex. After the events of 7 October 2023 Europe can no longer turn a blind eye to these dynamics, especially where European actors on the ground are feeling real consequences. Even assuming a de-escalation and possible positive developments in the Middle East, Israel and to a lesser extent Iran will remain hot topics in the Maghreb. Israel in particular will continue to be resented in large parts of the populations and instrumentalised by political leaders for domestic, regional and foreign policy purposes. European’s prime objective must be to counteract aggressive rhetoric between the Maghreb states – in which Israel and Iran play a role – rather than falling for the propaganda. Information about (mis)deeds attributed to Israel and Iran by Maghrebi sources must always be verified, even if that may be difficult in a landscape of growing disinformation. Generally, the surviving local fact-based information platforms should be supported wherever possible and cooperation expanded. Europe-based media platforms with outreach into the region can also play an important Public Sentiment and Risks of Its Instrumentalisation SWP Berlin Of Friends and Foes: Israel and Iran in the Maghreb June 2024 36 role. In Germany these would include Qantara and Deutsche Welle. Secondly, Europe should avoid exacerbating the polarisation around Iran and Israel through its own rhetoric and actions, and instead show consideration for the popular mood. In the case of Morocco that would mean giving careful consideration to any future trilateral European cooperation with Morocco and Israel and to restrict this to areas where Israel has special expertise to offer and there is no manifest public opposition to the relevant projects. One example would be cooperation on water management in Morocco, where the EU, Morocco and Israel have already initiated a joint project. Closely related, thirdly, European actors need to distinguish legitimate and fundamental rejection of Israeli policies (including calls for boycotts) from antisemitism and violence against Jews and Israelis in the Maghreb. In other words: even if they consider them one-sided, European policy-makers will have to learn to live with Maghrebi views of Israel as a colonial actor and with anti-Zionist rhetoric in the Maghreb. Incitement and violence against Jews, on the other hand, must be called out as such and condemned – as various European governments did after the shooting at the synagogue on Djerba in May 2023. Fourthly, European policy-makers must have on their radar that Israel and to a certain extent Iran also serve as a pretext for restrictions on freedom of expression and academic and religious freedom. At least until October 2023 actors in Morocco who spoke out against normalisation risked harassment – as did those in Tunisia that refused to explicitly reject it. In all three states Shiite proselytising is attributed to Iran, although the truth remains murky. But there is no doubt that Shiites are sometimes persecuted or at least kept under surveillance. European actors should call for consistent freedom of expression and speak out against all discrimination against religious and cultural minorities. Fifthly, German and European foreign policy actors must be prepared for legislation to criminalise normalisation to be revived in Tunisia, and possibly also introduced in Algeria. In the past Europe applied considerable diplomatic pressure to prevent such initiatives in Tunisia. In the current context in the Middle East and in view of the accusations of European double standards after 7 October, such pressure would be counter-productive. All that can be done here is to point out the narrowing of foreign policy and security options that would result from such legislation. If – as in previous draft legislation – contact with Israeli citizens by non-state actors in the fields of culture, sport and academia is criminalised, European messaging on freedom of expression and scientific pluralism could nevertheless be considered. Not least because such legislation could turn out to be tool to suppress freedom of expression more generally and could have negative consequences for Tunisia’s Jewish minority. Last but not least, European politicians must avoid being instrumentalised in intra-Maghreb conflicts. The arms race and sabre-rattling between Algeria and Morocco – supported by propaganda leveraging Israel and Iran – increase the risk of military confrontation in Europe’s immediate neighbourhood. European policy-makers thus have every reason to subvert related Maghrebi zero-sum logics and instrumentalisations by pursuing a balanced and de-escalat- ing line. Abbreviations APS Algérie Presse Service BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa FIS Front islamique du Salut (Islamic Salvation Front) IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRAN) IRNA Islamic Republic News Agency IWF International Monetary Fund MAK Mouvement Autonome Kabyle (Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylie) MAP Maghreb Arabe Presse MENA Middle East and North Africa MSP Mouvement de la Société pour la Paix OPEC Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries P5+1 The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany PDL Parti destourien libre PJD Parti de la justice et du développement PLO Palestine Liberation Organisation RNI Rassemblement national des indépendants TAP Tunisie Agence Presse UGTT Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail (Tunisian General Labour Union) UAE United Arab Emirates