The Role of Older People as Consumers - the Comparative Analysis of Old and New Member States of European Union

Bałandynowicz - Panfil, Katarzyna Article The Role of Older People as Consumers - the Comparative Analysis of Old and New Member States of European Union Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe Provided in Cooperation with: Institute of Economics, University of Łódź Suggested Citation: Bałandynowicz - Panfil, Katarzyna (2012) : The Role of Older People as Consumers - the Comparative Analysis of Old and New Member States of European Union, Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, ISSN 2082-6737, Łodz University Press, Łodz, Vol. 15, Iss. 1, pp. 83-101, https://doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0005-y This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/259097 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 10.2478/v10103-012-0005-y KATARZYNA BAŁANDYNOWICZ – PANFIL* The Role of Older People as Consumers – the Comparative Analysis of Old and New Member States of European Union1 Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate differences between the role of older people as consumers of goods and services in Old and New Member States of European Union. An ageing of society process causes changes in the structure of consumers of goods and services, in size and age respectively and therefore should be comprehensively considered. The consequences of an ageing process have been illustrated with an example of the tourism market. To reach the goal of this paper statistical analysis has been carried out, particularly in order to examine the differences between EU New and Old Member States2 with respect to dynamics of population ageing and characteristics of older customers. Most of the recent scientific literature considering the specific influence of demographic processes on customers behaviour has been reviewed. *Ph.D., Institute of International Business, University of Gdansk 1 The publication is financed from European Social Fund in as a part of the project "Educators for the elite - integrated training program for PhD students, post-docs and professors as academic teachers at University of Gdansk" within the framework of Human Capital Operational Programme, Action 4.1.1, Improving the quality of educational offer of tertiary education institutions. 2 EU Old Member States (EU-15, OMS countries): Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, United Kingdom, Finland, Sweden, Greece, Netherlands, Austria. EU New Member States (EU-12, NMS countries): Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Malta, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus. 84 Katarzyna Bałandynowicz – Panfil The key findings prove that an ageing of societies process is significant for each European country. However EU-12 societies are generally younger in comparison to EU-15. On the other hand EU-12 societies are exposed to higher risk of rising dynamics of demographic changes. In a consequence, the increasing role of older people as customers brings also essential changes in relation between supply and demand on each markets. What is highly important, older customers needs are evolving due to their increasing purchasing power, higher education level and better consumers awareness. For instance, these relationships can be observed on tourism services markets where older people are becoming a significant and more attractive group of consumers, due to the level of their tourism expenditures. Moreover, the study described clearly considerable differences between older customers behaviour in EU Old and New Member States: in the purchase frequency of tourism services, in the length of holiday trips and in the level of expenditures. In the subsequent years, a higher homogenisation of purchasing habits of older people in European countries is expected. This paper contributes to the most current European scientific discussions on an importance of older people for a development of economies from the perspective of their impact on goods and services markets. Furthermore, especially in a context of insufficient optimization of companies strategies, which are still directed to a shrinking group of young buyers and the lack of knowledge about changing needs of older customers need to be highlighted and analyzed to bring new solutions for producers, retailers and whole markets. 1. Introduction The increasing role of older consumers on European markets of goods and services is strictly connected with general demographic trends of ageing of societies. The boundary, which is separating different age groups between young and old customers is widely discussed in the literature. Depending on the author and the purpose of the division, its exact age value varies between 45 and 75 years old. Differences in approaches stem from the research areas of the conducted analysis. For example, when marketing strategies of cosmetic products are taken into account, the age of 50 is being selected in most cases. By contrast, conscientiously research in the field of medical care services for elderly define older people as those who are at least 75 years old. Due to the rising life expectancy the age level, which is used as a boundary for classifying people between young and old is increasing. As a result in recent years more interest in The Role of Older People as Consumers… 85 scientific researches is directed toward people from the so-called ‘older-older’ group, which consists of people at the age of 75+ or even 80+ (Rosset 1959, pp. 107-134; Kurkiewicz 1992, pp. 55-56). The age level of elderly is not absolutely clear even in statistical datasets, hence it becomes one of the most crucial limitations for deeper comparisons. This problem reveals not only in comparative studies between groups of countries or individual countries, but also in different studies prepared and published even by one institution, e.g. Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO 2011). Widely recognized classification implemented in European statistics (Green Paper 2005, p. 4) divide age groups in society in the following categories: • children – 0-14 years; • young people – 15-24 years; • young adults – 25-39 years; • adults – 40-54 years; • older workers – 55-64 years; • elderly people – 65-79 years; • very elderly people – 80 years and more. Because the aim of this paper requires statistical analysis, it is highly important to choose the correct boundary of elderly people. Most statistical datasets are based on economical activity and that is the reason why age of 65 is the most common term of elderly. The same threshold is accepted in this study, whereas it is possible. However, as it will be clarified in subsequent paragraphs, the classification where only one variable – the chronological age – is taken into account is an oversimplification and can lead to numerous inaccuracies. Categorizing by age groups is often misused in order to obtain so called homogenous cohorts, members of which can afterwards by similar features and behaviours. Notwithstanding, modern societies, as a result of progressive processes of cultural change, go beyond the accepted roles where people no longer behave as they are excepted for their age. This phenomena is called ‘age intricacy’ and is a result mainly from changes in an area of a life-style of social groups (Styś 2006, pp. 10-12). That is the reason why some more categories should be taken under consideration when describing an older consumer’s behaviour and its impact for goods and services markets. This point of view is also a part of this paper. 86 Katarzyna Bałandynowicz – Panfil 2. Ageing of societies process An ageing of society process can be described as a growing participation of older people in population. To illustrate the significance of this process a proportion of people aged 65 and over is presented on the Figure 1. Figure 1 illustrates that an ageing of society processes is a common tendency for almost every EU Member State. An average percentage of share of older people in population in 2010 for 27 countries of European Union amounted 17,38% and it was more than 1,3 percentage point higher comparing to 2002. The only exception in this statement is Spain, where a slight decrease of the elderly share in population was noticed since 2002. However, demographic projections, also for Spain, predict the growth of the index above the level of a base year. Figure 1. The share of people aged 65+ in total population (in %) Source: own calculations based on: (Eurostat 2011). According to the graph above, there are significant differences between countries in the process dynamics of ageing of societies. The youngest society is in Ireland (11,60%) and the oldest is in Germany (20,66%). There are also differences in the level and dynamics of the older people share between EU New and Old Member States. UE-15 notes on average the index level of 15,93% The Role of Older People as Consumers… 87 compared with 15,76% in twelve New Member States. This disproportion was even greater in the year 2002 (15,47% to 14,39%) due to the higher dynamics of demographic changes in EU-12, which nearly equalized values in both groups of countries. As set out in long-term demographic projections, the ageing process will continue in future decades all over Europe. All mentioned above dissimilarities arise from several sources. First of them are so called baseline demographic conditions in each country. Among them the level of fertility, mortality and migration balance are said to be the most important factors. In addition, an indirect impact on visible differences is created by a close connection with so called ‘demographic transition model’. The basic interpretation of this model demonstrates the significant impact of country development change from pre-industrial to an industrialized economy on birth and death rates. Each stage of demographic transition varies in a pace and main sources of transformation. Firstly, higher income brings new solutions in a food supply and health care systems. Next improvements are noticed in the area of work conditions as well as in the increasing urbanization process and contraceptive technologies development. All these factors lead to modification of a lifestyle and the work valuation by society members and in consequence lead to change in the concept of a family and child-raising. In addition, changes in age structures have an impact on the size of population. First stages of demographic transition bring higher dynamics in population growth rates because of significant decrease in children mortality as well as in the older people cohort. Because of further amendments the society reaches the moment of stagnation and later starts the process of shrinking and ageing of population. Some theories suggest that there are only four stages of a demographic transition, however new socio-economic circumstances brought new interesting observations. According to newest researches, countries with the highest levels of national wealth (measured by HDI – Human Development Index) experience the reversed negative trend. It is a sign that by intensify efforts to promote fertility it is possible to increase number of children in societies. It can be called as a fifth or even the sixth stage of the society transition (Active... 2003, pp. 29- 32; Myrskylä et al. 2009, pp. 741-743). One of the main indicators, which give a measure of an ageing of societies process is median age. In 2010 the median age of the EU-27 population was 40,9 years, meaning that more than a half of European Union citizens were aged 40 years and over. This index differs among the Member States starting from 34,3 years in Ireland to 44,2 years in Germany. This variation is a consequence of earlier observations in the degree of population ageing in particular countries of the EU. Again, in OMS countries the level of the demographic indicator explained above is higher than in EU-12. The median age of total population in 88 Katarzyna Bałandynowicz – Panfil EU-27 rose steadily in analyzed period - in total more than 3 years since 2002 (Demography Report 2011, pp. 61-63). The ageing process in Europe should be considered by the measure of younger age cohorts participation in population. The general tendency among European countries is accruing analogy: the larger share of older people in a society the smaller part of people aged up to 20 years. Particularly this statement is a truth for Germany (with the lowest proportion of young people) and for Ireland (with the highest share of 0-19 year olds) (Demography Report 2011, pp. 60-61). Those observations confirm that an ageing of society is largely determined by a low level of fertility rates and dynamic changes in age structures, which manifest itself not only in the rising number of older people but also in a decline in numbers of younger cohorts (both adults and children). Moreover, an increasing role of older people can be corroborated by an old-age dependency ratio, which shows the relative size of the old population (65 and over) to working age population (15-64 years). Figure 2. Old-age dependency ratio Source: own calculations based on: (Eurostat 2011). The demographic transformation of an European society, illustrated by Figure 2, leads to significant changes in proportion of selected age groups in population. According to the previous findings, an increase in old-age dependency ratio is projected. However, these changes will not proceed with equal force everywhere. Relatively equal, but rapid growth in all 27 European countries in 2010-2060 is a result of two different, overlapping trends. Old The Role of Older People as Consumers… 89 Member States will exceed the average value of analyzed ratio of EU-12. It will be observed by the year 2040 when the tendency is going to be reversed. These disparities are the consequence of a decreasing dynamics of a deterioration of the indicator in countries from the first selected group and a very rapid increase in its value noticed in NMS countries, ranging from 2035. All presented phenomenon have an important impact on the possibility of an economic growth, a public finances stability or pension systems effectiveness. In 2010 in the EU-27 had about 3,5 person at working age for every person aged 65 years and over. Between 2050 and 2055 this index is going to double and that means, commonly speaking, that no longer 3,5 persons, but only 2 persons will have to work for one retired person. Of course, this interpretation shouldn’t be treated so directly, but it certainly shows projected burdens of development posed by demographic changes. The analysis of demographic processes requires taking into account also the speed of projected changes. The changes occurring too rapidly and a presence of a need of extensive socio-economic adaptations put very strong demands on state policies. The necessity of constant changes monitoring must affect an amendment of implemented and planned public strategies, which in turn will be a significant measure of state actions effectiveness. Adding uncertainty of demographic projections to those considerations and difficulties in an estimation of their impact on societies and economies, it draws a complete picture of challenges faced by particular countries. Three groups of countries can be distinguished by their susceptibility of population changes (Demography Report 2011, pp. 64-65): • countries that will experience a slow pattern of ageing, start with a temperate old to older population: Sweden, Belgium, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands; slower ageing will help these states to become relatively younger compared to others • countries that are already relatively old and are projected to age at a moderate rate: Germany, Austria, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Greece as well as Ireland (this same age pattern but a lower level of a start point of ageing); they will experience modest ageing of population processes but only in first decades in the future (till 2040) • countries with the highest rates of population ageing, mainly from 2040 onward: Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta and Romania; currently with a comparatively low proportion of population age 65+ is projected to increase slowly until 2020 and to grow rapidly in next decades. New Member States are included mostly to the last group of countries with the highest expected dynamics of changes in age patterns. In the future, 90 Katarzyna Bałandynowicz – Panfil different dynamics of ageing in each country will result in much greater diversity in the level of ageing of populations across EU-27. This statement stays in line with earlier findings, that the most rapid transformation in an age structure of societies occur in EU-12 and those countries will struggle with the biggest socio-economic problems. Moreover, NMS countries are often characterized by a lack of experience in taking effective efforts to meet demographic challenges, what puts them even in a difficult position. 3. Characteristic of ageing consumers Since in the literature the marketing’s fixation on the 20-34 age group as the best target for successful business is often highlighted, it seems reasonable to consider simultaneously an evolution of a participation in population of people aged 65 and over to those aged 20-34 (Fig. 3). Figure 3. Participation of people aged 20-34 and 65+ in population in Old and New Member States (in %) Source: own calculations based on: (Eurostat 2011). Comparing two selected age cohorts from Figure 3, some observations can be made. First are differences between proportions of younger and older age groups in societies. Those aged 20-34 are a greater part of societies both in New and Old Member States than those aged 65+. Taking into account the observed The Role of Older People as Consumers… 97 Despite limited availability of data, some general conclusions can be drawn on the basis of data presented in Tab. 2. Average expenses for one night during a holiday trip in Old Member States are higher than in NMS countries. This is true both for all travellers regardless of age. People age 65 and over are even more diverse in their tourist expenditure among two analyzing groups of countries. Those differences result in a greater variation in expenditures of older tourists per holiday trip as a percent of tourism expanses per one night of all travellers. In countries classified as EU-15 older customers are prone to spend more to meet their tourism needs, it goes altogether with generally higher spending on tourism in those countries. Moreover, in spite of the existing disproportions between their expenditures and tourists in all age, the level of their expenses in OMS countries is relatively comparable to population as total. In this group of countries the disproportion between spending of people age 65 and over and all age cohorts on one holiday night was not higher than 20. In contrast, the analysed proportions in New Member States remain. Except Slovenia, older people spent much less for one night of their holiday trip than younger ones (not more than 70% of tourists spending in all ages). Such significant differences must have an impact on tourist markets in every country. Lower expenditures lead to a lack of sufficient economic motivation among entrepreneurs for a dynamic development of new products and services in EU-12. Table 2. Tourist expenditure per one night of a holiday trip (4 nights and over) of people age 65+ and tourists in all age (in 2010) Selected countries Tourist expenditure per night (in 1000 EUR) Tourist expenditure per night age 65+/total tourists (%) Total tourist Tourist age 65+ Old Member States Germany 0,0687900 0,0688083 100,02% Spain 0,0413300 0,0329742 79,78% Luxembourg 0,2264100 0,2089534 92,29% Netherlands 0,0561319 0,0490319 87,35% Portugal 0,0408900 0,0328186 80,26% Sweden 0,0702992 0,0594694 84,59% New Member States Cyprus 0,0704684 0,0481517 68,33% Latvia 0,0391100 0,0107572 27,50% Hungary 0,0268707 0,0180143 67,04% Poland 0,0204596 0,0142761 69,78% Slovenia 0,0470000 0,0421434 89,66% Slovakia 0,0517106 0,0278586 53,87% Source: own calculations based on: (Eurostat 2011). 98 Katarzyna Bałandynowicz – Panfil From a perspective of the aim of this paper, it is important to highlight one more conclusion. Tourism expenditures per night during longer holiday trips in European Union were generally greater in 2010 than in 2005. Own calculations based on available statistical data from Eurostat show that this tendency is irregular at least in two dimensions. First are differences between countries, where a growth of expenses in New Member States seems to be more dynamic having it compared to EU-15 countries. One possible explanation of this phenomena is the starting point, which was significantly lower in the level. Therefore even a high increase of expenditures still does not allow to reach the level of tourism expenses of OMS countries. But on the other hand, observed differences may be related with a transformation of societies occurring in EU-12 countries. The higher economic development together with an increasing level of education and customer awareness result in changes in consumption baskets in favour of satisfying higher-order needs. The second dimension of diversity between societies in analyzed area is dynamics of growth of tourism expenditures. For all countries presented in Tab. 2 total tourism expenditures per one holiday night increased on average during years 2005-2010 by 28% and for older tourist by 55% (Eurostat 2011). Such a comparison eliminates an effect of inflation and proves that older people are becoming an increasingly important and an attractive group of buyers of traveller services. 5. Conclusion The aim of this paper was to investigate main differences between Old and New Member States in characteristics of an ageing of society process and the role of older people as consumers of goods and services. Countries of EU-12 are classified as a group with the highest expected age pattern changes. It means that these countries have relatively young populations comparing to OMS. However, the dynamics of ageing will have significant impact on the possibility of an economic growth, stability of public finances and on effectiveness of pension systems in NMS countries. An age structure of ageing societies is changing in a direction of increasing participation of older people among citizens. This leads to many challenges on labour market, but also in the process of fulfilling the needs of an ageing societies on goods and services markets. The Role of Older People as Consumers… 99 Differences between Old and New Member States are evident both in specific needs of older consumers and the way of meeting them. In EU-12 older people are generally less aware of their customer’s power and are not treated as a attractive group of clients. Significant differences are a result of diversity in a level of economic development and hence substantial disparities in GDP per capita, as well as the levels of disposal income and a structure of a typical basket of goods and services. This conclusion was also confirmed by a survey on European citizens conducted in March 2009. Respondents in countries that joined the EU in 2004 or later are less likely to agree with a statement that the development of products and services responding to the needs of older people will become a key driver of their national economy (Intergenerational solidarity 2009, p. 23). An increasing role of older people as consumers is more visible in EU-15. For instance, tourism sector in Old Member States can be described by much higher expenditures in absolute numbers and in a relation to average expenses of total population. There is a wider offer for that age group of customers. Indicated differences in consumer behaviour e.g. the length of holiday trips or destinations of a travel are derived mainly from their habits. In the future older consumer behaviour, not only in tourism sector but also in other branches, are projected to an evolution in a direction of a homogenisation within the whole European Union. In addition, it has to be emphasized that New Member States are highly heterogeneous. For example, while Cyprus is often much more similar to other countries from Southern Europe, three Baltic countries manifest convergence as well as Poland, Slovakia or Czech Republic. Cultural, geographical and religious factors have significant meaning in building these similarities. On the other hand, these sub-groups of countries are not constant and their classification significantly depends on an area of conducted analysis. For instance, in Slovenia, Slovakia and Poland, just as in Cyprus and other southern countries, an extended family is still the societal norm. That means e.g. young adults are leaving their family homes late and older people often live with their adult children. In that countries three-generational households are much more typical than in Czech Republic and Hungary where, in contrast, the structure of families has more in common with Nordic countries. In this case economic reasons had the major impact for a countries classification. In future, the growing income in New Member States will have an impact on household structures and living arrangements, which can evolve in similar direction to more economically developed countries (Income and living... 2010, pp. 97-98). Moreover, gender differences should also be included in future analyzes, especially because of strong differences between genders in life expectancy and 100 Katarzyna Bałandynowicz – Panfil higher proportion of women in older population. In consequence, it brings much higher share of widowed elderly women, who are more frequent beneficiaries of medical services and nursing homes. Living and income conditions of older women and men are diverse and result in a substantial incompatibility of a consumer behaviour between men and women. References Active ageing and solidarity between generations. A statistical portrait of the European Union 2012 (2011), Population and social conditions, Eurostat statistical books, European Commission, Luxembourg Bonsang E., van Soest A. (2010), Satisfaction with job and income among older individuals across European countries, ‘METEOR’, Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization, Maastricht, RM/10/059 CSO (2011), Central Statistical Office in Poland, www.stat.gov.pl Demography Report 2010. 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(2005), The European consumer in the enlarge Union, ‘Statistics in focus. Population and social conditions’, European Communities, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2/2005 Rosset E. (1959), Proces starzenia się ludności, Polskie Wydawnictwo Gospodarcze, Warszawa Styś M. (2006), Konsument bez metryki, ‘Marketing w Praktyce’, Warszawa, 6/2006 The Role of Older People as Consumers… 101 Streszczenie ROLA OSÓB STARSZYCH JAKO KONSUMENTÓW – STUDIUM PORÓWNAWCZE STARYCH I NOWYCH KRAJÓW CZŁONKOWSKICH UNII EUROPEJSKIEJ Celem opracowania jest zbadanie różnic pomiędzy rolą osób starszych jako konsumentów dóbr i usług w gospodarkach starych i nowych Państwach Członkowskich Unii Europejskiej. Proces starzenia się społeczeństw prowadzi do znacznych zmian w liczbie i strukturze wiekowej konsumentów na poszczególnych rynkach dóbr i usług. Zjawisko to wymaga bliższych rozważań. Podstawową metodą badawczą zastosowaną dla osiągnięcia celu jest statystyczna analiza różnic pomiędzy krajami „piętnastki” i nowymi członkami UE. Rozważania zostały dodatkowo uzupełnione o przegląd najnowszej literatury w dziedzinie zachowań rynkowych starszych konsumentów. Podstawowe wnioski płynące z dokonanej analizy potwierdzają występowanie istotnych rozbieżności pomiędzy obiema opisywanymi grupami krajów europejskich. Proces starzenia się społeczeństw jest jednym z kluczowych zjawisk demograficznych widocznych we wszystkich krajach europejskich. Generalnie, nowe kraje członkowskie są demograficzne młodsze, jednocześnie są bardziej narażone na wyższą dynamikę zachodzących zmian. Rosnący udział osób starszych w społeczeństwie prowadzi również do zaburzeń funkcjonowania rynków: zmiana struktury wiekowej nabywców, nowe potrzeby i konieczność ich zaspokojenia, adaptacja przedsiębiorstw do nowych warunków. Podkreślenia wymaga również fakt ewolucji potrzeb osób starszych, wynikająca m.in. z rosnącej siły nabywczej, wyższego poziomu wykształcenia oraz większej świadomości rynkowej. Przykładem w tym zakresie może być zachowanie starszych konsumentów na rynku produktów i usług turystycznych, gdzie wykazane zostały znaczne różnice pomiędzy starymi i nowymi Państwami Członkowskimi. Rozbieżności dotyczą w szczególności częstotliwości korzystania z usług turystycznych, długości wyjazdów wakacyjnych oraz poziomu ponoszonych na nie wydatków. Ponadto w opracowaniu wykazano, że osoby starsze stają się nie tylko coraz większą i bardziej znaczącą grupą konsumentów w Europie, ale również bardziej atrakcyjną z punktu widzenia ich zachowań nabywczych. Studium porównawcze stanowi wkład do bieżącej dyskusji naukowej nad znaczeniem osób starszych dla rozwoju europejskich gospodarek w perspektywie ich roli odgrywanej na rynkach dóbr i usług.