Investor overreaction and global financial crisis: A case of Pakistan stock exchange

Said, Bahrawar; Shafiq ur Rehman; Ullah, Rizwan; Khan, Javed Article Investor overreaction and global financial crisis: A case of Pakistan stock exchange Cogent Economics & Finance Provided in Cooperation with: Taylor & Francis Group Suggested Citation: Said, Bahrawar; Shafiq ur Rehman; Ullah, Rizwan; Khan, Javed (2021) : Investor overreaction and global financial crisis: A case of Pakistan stock exchange, Cogent Economics & Finance, ISSN 2332-2039, Taylor & Francis, Abingdon, Vol. 9, Iss. 1, pp. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/270140 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license. Published online: 03 Sep 2021. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 2129 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 2 View citing articles Page 1 of 18 Investor overreaction and global financial crisis: A case of Pakistan stock exchange Bahrawar Said, Shafiq Ur Rehman, Rizwan Ullah and Javed Khan Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 FINANCIAL ECONOMICS | RESEARCH ARTICLE Investor overreaction and global financial crisis: A case of Pakistan stock exchange Bahrawar Said 1 , Shafiq Ur Rehman 1 , Rizwan Ullah 1* and Javed Khan 1 Abstract: Recently, the investor overreaction catches the attention of the academicians and practitioners. The topic comes under the limelight of academicians and policymakers. This study, therefore, addresses investor overreaction and its relationship with the global financial crisis for the period of 2004–15. The study used stratified random sampling technique; equal allocation method of Krejcie and Morgan. By adopting the methodology of Debondt and Thaler, the study finds that there is highly significant overreaction (distinct reversal) in the stock market in the global-financial crisis period, which may attribute to the aggressive behavior of individual investors in the market. Overreaction has also been shown in the line graph shaded area which opposes the efficient market hypothesis and verifies the presence of a weak form of efficiency. Econometric tests are applied for robustness check that confirms weak form of efficiency in the PSX. The study has implications for both the investors and policymakers. This study is quintessential for those investors who have the aptitude to look introspectively and to evaluate their behavioral biases. Further, investors would learn to transmute behaviors and to build portfolios which will help them to stick to their longterm investment strategies and hence achieve their investment goals. Subjects: Quantitative Finance; Accounting and Finance for Events; Finance Keywords: Overreaction; underreaction; portfolios; Pakistan stock exchange Bahrawar Said ABOUT THE AUTHOR Bahrawar Said is currently working as a Lecturer at Department of Commerce and Management Sciences at University of Malakand. Previously, he had been a visiting Lecturer at Grafton University College Islamabad (2016–17) and then joined Civil Secretariat Planning and Development Department as a Development Officer (2017–18). Additionally, in his MS degree, he worked on “behavioural finance and stock market efficiency”. Now, he is a PhD scholar. His PhD research is mainly focused on market microstructure, financial reforms and market efficiency. PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT This research is an application of behavioral finance on the real-world problems. It explains that stock markets are exposed to investors’ biases that subject to the spill-over effect of other stock markets. The scholars interested in the realm of behavioral finance can use our findings in their research for in-depth insights. Every investor trading in the stock market suffers biases in shortrun, while return to normal position later on shows overreaction, that is, showing more aggressive behavior in the market. If investors face bad news that directly affect the investors’ behavior in negative way, it results in irrational decisions. More specifically this paper investigated the impact of global financial crisis on the investors’ decisions in the stock market of Pakistan. The study highlighted the issue that investors in the stock market possess less information. Further, they do not make rational decisions in short-run in the market, which consequently leads to investor overreaction. Page 2 of 18 Received: 19 August 2020 Accepted: 28 July 2021 * Corresponding author: Rizwan Ullah, Commerce and Management Sciences, University of Malakand, PAKISTAN Email: [email protected] Reviewing editor: David McMillan, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom Additional information is available at the end of the article © 2021 The Author(s). This open access article is distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC-BY) 4.0 license. Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 1. Introduction Stock market prediction has always been a matter of debate for market analysts. One of the general questions is that why do securities prices change? No one came with real and precise answer. One aspect is that stock-price predictions and understanding stock market’s whereabouts is not possible. In another view, it could be predicted with the help of historical market data and its trend (Bachelier, 1900; Malkiel, 2003). It is common that the fluctuation in the trading of stocks in the market is linked with many other factors; like any natural disasters, political uncertainties, recession across the world, wars, oil prices, economic conditions, globalization, and bad news about the stock market, and so on. The above news has direct and indirect impacts on the market (Otchere & Chan, 2010). Market analyst studies stock market inefficiencies in which securities mispriced from their fundamental values and those securities become overvalued or undervalued in the stock market. Further, it either causes investor underreaction or overreaction in financial terminologies in the stock market that oppose efficient market hypothesis (hereafter; EMH) and verify the presence of weak form of efficiency. The literature of behavioral finance is categorized in two main areas; the overreaction identification in the EMH that explains by behavioral models like DeBondt and Thaler (1985) and the identification of the investor biases inconsistent with classical economic theories of rational behaviors like that discussed by Barber & Odean (1999); Pompian (2011). The market efficiency is essential in a country because when the market is inefficient in adjustment to the news. Then, the less informed investors tend to overreact and the analysts as well as the savvy investors leave behind the market by receiving overvalued and undervalued securities information. Consequently, they earn abnormal returns in that period (Mehmood et al., 2012). Research in experimental psychology asserts that when an investor violates Bayes’ rule that would subsequently tend to overreact to unanticipated news. So, it is essential to know whether this behavior matter at the market level or not. In investor overreaction, stock price tends to depart from their fundamental values; with good news it goes up, while declines with bad news. However, over a period of time prices come back to their old position by exhibiting that prices have overreacted and then corrects itself. The study of overreaction is well-understood phenomena and explained meticulously (DeBondt & Thaler, 1985; Poterba & Summers, 1988; Howe, 1986; Brown & Harlow, 1988; Fama, 1970; Smith, 2016; Ball, Kothari & Shankeen, 1995). Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) had come with more detailed evidences in favor of momentum effect in short run and contrarian effect in long run. Besides, some other studies investigated investor overreaction in developing markets. For instance, Sohail and Javid (), Bhutta and Shah (2014), and Soomro et al. (2016) conducted study in Karachi Stock Exchange, and Vardar and Okan (2008) investigated in Istanbul Stock Exchange. The results of the above studies were mixed and inconclusive. These studies targeted top 30 and 100 index based on market capitalization, which lacked generalizability. Different methodologies were used that lacked cohesiveness. Similarly, this is the first study of investor overreaction according to the best knowledge of author that aims to cover all sectors till date that addresses this gap in the present literature. The study contributed through constructing portfolios on the basis of weekly ACARs 1 in the long-run. So, it provides better understanding and concrete results of investor overreaction till date in Pakistan Stock Exchange (hereinafter; PSX). The main objective of the study is to check the investor overreaction in the pre-financial, amid and postfinancial crisis’ period. Along with it, random walk test is applied as a robustness-check in favor of weak form of efficiency. Overreaction (Crime of small numbers) of the investors is considered inconsistent with EMH. The methodology of DeBondt and Thaler (1985) based on portfolios of ACARs is mostly exploited and considered the most appropriate method of detecting the impact of news on stock prices. The main findings of the study indicate that there exists highly significant overreaction in the stock market employed t-test: T-SAEV Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances. The study divulges that there is distinct reversal for the global financial crisis, which exposes a high degree of Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 3 of 18 overreaction in these different periods that may be attributable to the aggressive behavior of individual investor in the market. It could be inferred from the findings that Pakistan is an emerging economy that has partial linkages to the worldwide financial markets. Econometric tests are used as a robustness-check and it confirmed weak form of efficiency in the PSX. This study is quintessential implications for those investors who have the aptitude to observe introspectively and evaluate their behavioral biases. Several individual investors who elect either to do it themselves or to rely on financial advisor merely for incidental advice. They often find themselves incapable to separate their emotions at the time of investment decisions. This overreaction does not have to be an enduring happening. After studying this research and investigating profoundly into their behaviors, investors can definitely learn to transmute behaviors and to build portfolios that help them stick to their long-term investment strategies. Hence, they achieve their investment goals. Section one provides background and gap of the study. Section two includes history, basic theme, literature, and hypotheses. Section three has the methodology and statistical techniques. Section four encompasses descriptive statistics, investor overreaction, and random walk tests for robustness check. Conclusion, findings, recommendations and implications, future research and limitations are abridged in section five. 2. Literature review Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that investors irrationally respond to good and bad news causing stock prices to depart from their intrinsic value. Although over some period of time, stock prices slowly revert to their intrinsic value and it suggests that prices overreact in the early period. As investors ascertain their mistakes, then prices return to their intrinsic value. Particularly, stocks with previously low returns will afterward experience relatively high returns, while stocks that had previously performed better would show weak performance in the future. Interestingly, the application linked with overreactions is the capability to earn abnormal profits via implementing a contrarian strategy. This possibility acts as a serious blow to EMH (Fama, 1970). Likewise, a substantial body of pragmatic literature has provided manifestation for overreaction in the stock markets. The pioneer school of thoughts of DeBondt and Thaler (1985) is consistent with the overreaction hypothesis, in which the authors find that the loser-portfolio outperforms the winner one. It was the first attempt at the behavioral principle of investors in the stock market which is also called the winner–loser effect. Moreover, they affirmed that security prices could be predicted on the basis of historical prices that contradict the weak form of EMH. Studies revealed that stock returns are positively correlated in the short-run, while negatively correlated in long-run (Jegadesh & Titman, 1993). This suggests that investors act excessively optimistically (Overreact) for prior winners in the short-run. Poterba and Summers (1988) and Fama (1970) also affirmed the results of the study of DeBondt and Thaler (1985). The overreaction hypothesis has become central in behavioral finance in current years. Brown and Harlow (1988) came with improvement on studying the magnitude, directional effect, and intensity of the investor overreaction in NYSE in the simplest way, which supports the study of DeBondt and Thaler (1985). Moreover, investors overweight short news and attract more than a proportional share of investors’ attention in the market. Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) found evidence in favor of shortterm momentum effect as well as long-term contrarian effect. Howe’s report (1986) based on the one-week large depreciation in stock price, that explained the winner exhibits negative abnormal returns after the post-period portfolio formation. Bowman and Irvesan (1998) presented evidence in favor of overreaction as short-term reversals, while found contradictory long-term overreaction. Ball et al. (1995) conducted a study in NYSE-AMEX and argued that the DeBondt and Thaler (1985) loser stocks were found having low prices. Their study is further criticized on formation period (December), Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 4 of 18 while the results of the study were found inconsistent with the overreaction of June and July. Ali et al. (2011) investigated overreaction in Bursa Malaysia and found that there was a lower level of overreactions for winner stocks. Ali et al. (2011) investigated the stock overreaction on the shariahcompliant stock in Bursa Malaysia for the period 1988–2009 and argued that there was stronger overreaction before financial crisis in Asia in 1997 and in 2008, which decreased later on. Alrabadi (2012) examined the short-term reaction of shocks on the Amman Stock Exchange and found that there is an under reaction for both positive and negative shocks. The investor excessive overconfidence and increased optimism in the bullish market “NASDAQ” caused investor overreaction in the Taiwanese stock market, while no effect was found on U.S side (Chang et al., 2011). Yang and Luo (2014) analyzed during rumors clarification, ACAR’s were positively significant in the Bull market, while ACAR’s were significantly negative in Bear market conditions. In both conditions, investors could not differentiate between true and false rumors. Bhutta and Shah (2014) found that corporate governance had no impact on investor reaction. Additionally, Sohail and Javid () examined investor underreaction and overreaction in financial crisis, targeting KSE. The study showed the winners portfolio exhibited a huge increase in price in the initial four weeks and that shows insignificant overreaction. On the other hand, the losers portfolio having enormous price drops and does not show any significant reaction in the global financial crisis in Pakistan. Irshad and Sarwar (2013) investigated the weak form efficiency of KSE in which fundamental analysis can easily earn abnormal return utilizing different stock valuation techniques. Soomro et al. (2016) conducted a study on five cement firms of PSX, which was based on average abnormal returns and found that all investor overreactions are insignificant, except the eleventh and twelfth months. 3. Hypotheses H1: There is an overreaction in the global financial crisis period. H2: There is no overreaction in the pre and post-global financial crisis period. H3: Portfolio of loser ACARs does perform better than that of the winners in crisis period. 4. Research approach of Portfolios and data description According to paradigm diversity, the positivist paradigm is used to test the overreaction hypothesis. Through this quantitative approach, daily closing stock prices (2500 observations/closing prices for each firm) of 70 firms were collected and then converted into 500 weekly returns. Data were collected from 70 firms through equal allocation method of stratified random sampling technique (Krejcie & Morgan, 1970), which includes two firms from each sector (total of 35 sectors) of PSX. The study was conducted for the period of 2004–2015. The core concern of the study is to investigate investor’s overreaction using the methodology of DeBondt and Thaler (1985). Consequently, three econometric unit root tests were used for the robustness check of the study. 5. Methodology of the study The ACARs winner and loser portfolios are constructed in descending order, where winner ACARs are first 25 (out of 70 firms) outperformed stocks and the loser ACARs are the last 25 stocks that showed worst performance. The results of ACAR portfolios that comprises 21 weeks which were checked with a gap of 22 weeks from 500 entire sample. Portfolios are constructed which include formation period (1st week), then next t-24, t-48, t-72, t-96, t-120, t-144, . . . .t-480, tracked from 2004 till 2015. At last, three econometric unit root tests (ADF, PP, and KPPS) are applied on 2500 stock prices for robustness check of the study. The portfolios of the study are based on ACARs which is the methodology of DeBondt and Thaler (1985). In the first step, historical returns are calculated for the selected stocks. Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 5 of 18 Ri;t¼P1P0 ð Þ=P0(1) R t is the Actual returns, P 1 is today’s price and P 0 is the beginning price. In the second phase, the Expected Returns are calculated where ERi;t¼Rm;t(2) ER i is the Expected Returns which is considered equal to the market index (PSX) return. Rm;t . R m,t is the market returns in which Pakistan Stock Exchange 100 index is taken. Then, abnormal returns are calculated by way of. ARi;t¼Ri;tEðRi;tÞ(3) AR i,t is the abnormal returns of security “i” over the period “ t”. R i,t is the actual/historical returns, and ER i,t is equal to market return (PSX). Furthermore, the Cumulative Abnormal Returns are calculated as. CARi;t¼1=25 ∑ n i¼1 ARi;t(4) CAR i,t is the Cumulative Abnormal Returns of stock “i” over the period ‘t’. ACARi;t¼∑ n i¼1 CAR i;tð Þ (5) Hence, Average Cumulative Abnormal Returns (ACARs) are constructed by applying t-Test: TwoSample Assuming Equal Variances, the first 25 best stocks that became “Winners” and the last 25 stocks that performed worst are said to be “losers”. Then, the 25 shares that performed best are combined to form a winner portfolio. ACARi;t¼1=25 ∑ 25 i¼1 ARi;t(6) The same portfolio combination is done for making a portfolio of loser stocks. Then, the overreaction and under-reaction can be calculated as follows: ACARsloser ACARswinner>0overreactionð Þ (7) ACARsloser ACARswinner<0underreactionð Þ (8) If the results of these portfolios are greater than zero, then it will be an overreaction in the market and vice versa. Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 6 of 18 6. Data empirical analysis and discussions The above table 1 shows the result of descriptive statistics of the portfolios of ACARs for the whole sample and separately for the loser and winner portfolios. The mean returns, maximum (minimum) returns, the standard deviation (0.4321) is high for the loser ACARs than the standard deviation (0.3116) of the winner ACARs that revealed high risk in loser ACARs. The winner ACARs are positively skewed, while the loser ACARs is negatively skewed. Both winner and loser ACARs kurtosis show more flatness in the distribution and is platykurtic. The observations in the last row show 21 weeks out of 500 with a gap of 22 in each. H2: There is no overreaction in the pre-crisis period in the stock market. The investor reaction results based on ACARs on weekly basis are given in the Table 2 which is picked from the whole sample. In the pre-financial crisis period (2004–06), 120 weeks were selected to check the results of the said hypothesis. The results exhibited highly significant overreaction in the week 20 (0.221), week 90 (0.276), and week 100 (0.374). Conclusively, in the normal periods, that is, when there is no good or bad news, then investors don’t exhibit overreaction and the winners stay winners and the loser stay losers. H1: There is an overreaction in the global financial crisis period in the stock market. The overreaction hypothesis is checked during the global financial crisis period (2007–09) in table 3. The results disclosed that the investors seemed to follow the phenomena of overreaction. The EMH asserts that financial markets are efficient, which do not hold in the case of Pakistan, as it is an emerging economy. This hypothesis is valid in the period of financial crisis, as the investors show excessive optimism to risk-taking in the form of overreaction. The difference in the ACARs of winner and loser portfolios is positive (showed overreaction) in almost all the periods which show that the investors in a developing country such as Pakistan exhibits overreaction to the global financial crisis. Table 1. Descriptive statistics for the whole sample and separate for loser and winner portfolios Whole Sample Winner Portfolios–Loser Portfolios Mean 0.0241 0.0709 −0.2493 Median 0.0283 0.1427 − 0.1434 Maximum 0.148 0.7782 0.4836 Minimum −0.0230 −0.5699 −1.2586 Standard Deviation 0.098 0.3116 0.4321 Skewness −0.5073 0.2323 −0.5404 Kurtosis −0.3861 0.4548 − 0.0869 Probability 0.000 0.000 0 0.000 Sum 1.463 1.490 − 5.235 Observations 21 21 21 Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 7 of 18 Table A. Sample of the selected firms listed in Pakistan stock exchange 2 Symbol Company Name Obs. Symbol Company Name Obs. ATBA Atlas Battery Limited 2500 NBP National Bank Pakistan ltd 2500 CHCC Cherat Cement Com. Limited // ECOP Eco Pak // GHNL Ghandhara Nissan Limited // MEEBL Meezan Bank Limited // ABL Alleid Bank Limited // FABL Faisal Bank Limited // ABOT Abbot Laboratory Pak Limited // GHGL Ghani Glass Mills Limited // ACPL Attock Cement Pak Limited // FCSC First Capital Security C. Limited // INDU Indus Motor Co. limited // FEROZ Feroz Aziz Co. Limited // ADMM Artistic Denim mills Limited // BERG Berger Paint Industries // AGIL Agritus Automobile and parts // ICI Imperial Chemicals Industries // (Continued) Table 7. Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test Mackinnon Critical Values for Rejection of Hypothesis of a Unit Root Variable Level First Diff. 1% 5% 10% Decision Order of Integ. Stock Prices −1.684 −41.845 −3.961 −3.411 −3.127 Becomes stationary at first difference I (1) The above table confirms the stock prices of seventy firms (listed in PSX) that follow Random walk. Table 8. Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test Mackinnon Critical Values for Rejection of Hypothesis of a Unit Root in data Variable Level First Diff. 1% 5% 10% Decision Order of Integ. Stock Prices 1.266 0.118 0.216 0.146 0.119 Becomes stationary at first difference I (1) Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 14 of 18 spillover worldwide. Conclusively, Pakistan is not well insulated against the contagion impact in the international financial market. 9. Future recommendations Future studies may focus on different sectors of the economy to find out investors’ responses whether they show overreaction or under-reaction. Secondly, research is needed to take other different microand macro-variables in the stock market that affect investor trading. Thirdly, a similar study may be carried out in different economies to compare the intensity, direction, and magnitude of the investor reaction. Fourthly, other countries’ spillover impact can be checked in this stock marketw.r.t to the U.S. Lastly, there is a need to investigate the impact of different Symbol Company Name Obs. Symbol Company Name Obs. AGTL AL ghazi tractors Limited // HCAR Honda Atlas Car Pak. Limited // PTC Pak Tele communi. Limited // SEPCO Sukker Electric Power C. Limited // FFC Fauji Fertilizers Co Limited // MCB M. Commercial Bank Limited // DAWH Dawood Hercules Cor. Limited // NATF National Archives Trust Funds // KEL K. Electric Limited // DNCC Dandot Cement Co. Limited // ENGRO ANL APL ATLH ATRL BAFL BGL NML NRL PAKT PIAA BOP CRTM DFML DCL MTL Engro Corporation Azgard Nine Attock Petroleum Atlas Honda Attock Refinery Bank Al Falah Bal Glass Nishat Mills National Refinery Pak Tobacco P.I.A.C (A) Bank Of Punjab Crescent Textile Dewan Motors Dewan Cement Millat Tractors // // // // // // // // // BYCO DGKC EFUG EMCO FCCL FFBL GADT GLAXO GTYR HABSM HSPI JPGL KAPCO KOHC LUCK NCL Byco Petroleum Co. Limited DGK Cement EFU General Insurance EMCO IND Fuaji Cement Fauji Fert. BinXD Gadoon Textile GlaxoSmith General Tyre Habib Sugar Huffaz Pipe Japan Power Kot Addu PowerSPOT Kohat Cement Lucky Cement Nishat Chunain // // // // // // // // // // // // // JPL Johnson and Philips Ltd // WSPL WAVES Singer Pakistan Ltd // TCCL Thatta Cement Company Ltd // NRL Nimir Resins Limited // SCIL Sardar Chemical Industries Ltd // JSBL JSBill Limited // MSC Metropolitan Steel Corporation // MISIL Mughal Iron and Steels Ltd // ASC Al-Shaheer Corporation // QFIL Quice Food Industries Ltd // Said et al., Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1966195 Page 15 of 18 brain sections (include the amygdala, hippocampus, thalamus, hypothalamus, basal ganglia, and cingulate gyrus) roles and functions on the investment decisions. Funding The authors received no direct funding for this research. Author details Bahrawar Said 1 E-mail: [email protected] Shafiq Ur Rehman 1 Rizwan Ullah 1 E-mail: [email protected] Javed Khan 1 1 Department of Commerce and Management Sciences, University of Malakand, Malakand, Pakistan. Cover Image Source: Author. Citation information Cite this article as: Investor overreaction and global financial crisis: A case of Pakistan stock exchange, Bahrawar Said, Shafiq Ur Rehman, Rizwan Ullah & Javed Khan, Cogent Economics & Finance (2021), 9: 1966195. Notes 1. ACARs are Average Cumulative Abnormal Returns mentioned in the concerned study which have been properly carried out in methodology section of the paper. For further explanation, the researcher first collected closing prices of firm securities listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange and the Actual Returns were calculated for those stocks. Later on the Abnormal Returns (ARs) and the Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CARs) were calculated. At the end, average was found out for the Cumulative Abnormal Returns. 2. Table A is the table with alphabet name and it shows the selected companies detail. 3. In the line-graph in Figure 1 first row 1, 2, 3, . . . . . . 11, and 12 are the weeks picked up from the concerned period which exist in the pre-crisis period (2004–06). 4. In the line-graph in Figure 2 first row 1, 2, 3, . . . . . . 11, and 12 are the weeks picked up from the concerned period which exist in the global financial crisis period (2007–09). 5. In the line graph in Figure 3 first row 1, 2, 3, . . . . . . 11, and 12 are the weeks picked from the concerned period which exist in the post-global financial crisis period (2010–12). 6. In the line graph in Figure 4 in first row 1, 2, 3, 4, . . . . . . 20, and 21 are the weeks picked from the concerned period which exist in the whole time period of the study (2004–15). References Ahmad, Z., & Tjan, S. (2004). 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