Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings in Bulgaria: Contemporary Trends, Determinants and Social Consequences

85 Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings in Bulgaria: Contemporary Trends, Determinants and Social Consequences Nadezhda Ilieva1, Kamelia Petkova2, 1 NationalInstituteofGeophysics,GeodesyandGeography—BulgarianAcademyofSciences,Sofia,Bulgaria. 2 InstituteofPhilosophyandSociology—BulgarianAcademyofSciences,Sofia,Bulgaria. Corresponding author: Kamelia Petkova (kamelia.petkov[email protected]) Copyright: © Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova This is an open access article distributed under terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (Attribution 4.0 International – CC BY 4.0). Research Article Abstract This study examines the transformations in fertility among Roma living in urban settings in Bulgaria by combining demographic data, a large-scale quantitative survey, and indepth interviews. The findings reveal that despite the traditionally high fertility rates and favourable age structure characteristic of the Roma population during the 1990s and the early 21st century, the last two decades have been marked by a distinct decline in both overall fertility and adolescent childbearing. Changes in reproductive behaviour are shown to result from a complex interplay of socio-economic conditions, migration processes, educational trajectories, shifting family roles, and religious influences. The data demonstrate a strong association between the number of children, educational attainment, employment status and income levels, with higher levels of education and economic stability correlating with planned parenthood and smaller family size. At the same time, the large-scale migration of young Roma abroad exerts a dual effect: on the one hand, it generates a demographic vacuum at the local level, and on the other, it transfers norms of postponed parenthood and limited fertility. The interviews highlight increasing female emancipation and the growing role of education as an internal regulator of reproductive decision-making. The article argues that fertility should not be conceptualised as an isolated demographic characteristic, but rather as a reflection of social inequalities and the dynamic processes of adaptation within Roma communities. Key words: Fertility, Roma communities, reproductive behaviour, migration, education, Bulgaria. Introduction The current demographic situation of the population is the outcome of the longterm influence of multiple factors linked to the historical, economic and cultural specificities of the different ethnic communities in the country. The study of fertility among Roma communities in Bulgaria constitutes an important dimension of the analysis of social transformations and integration processes. Fertility is not merely a demographic indicator, but a multilayered social phenomenon that reflects the interaction between cultural patterns, economic opportunities, educational orientations and institutional conditions (Caldwell 2004; Lesthaeghe 2010; Subject editor: Desislava Varadzhakova Received: 28 November 2025 Accepted: 10 December 2025 Published: 22 December 2025 Citation: Ilieva N, Petkova K (2025) Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings in Bulgaria: Contemporary Trends, Determinants and Social Consequences. GeoStudies 2: 85–106, https://doi.org/10.3897/ geostudies.2.e180731 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025) DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 86 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings McDonald 2000). This research examines the trends and determinants shaping changes in fertility among the Roma population since the beginning of the 21st century, as well as the social consequences of these processes. The focus is placed on the qualitative dimensions of demographic change on how respondents interpret shifts in their own behaviour and on the social meanings they attach to parenthood, family roles, value orientations and motivational choices. Findings from numerous international studies demonstrate that postponement of childbirth and the reduction in family size result not only from economic factors, but also from a broader redefinition of family life and parenthood. Increasingly, parents do not follow the traditional model in which having many children represents a central value; instead, they plan their families in accordance with their opportunities for education, personal development and a better start in life for their children (Beck and Beck-Gernsheim 2002; Bernardi and Klärner 2014; Goldscheider et al. 2015). In this sense, fertility can be viewed as part of a wider transformation in the ways members of the Roma community understand life and family. Intergenerational relationships, the roles of men and women within the household, the importance of education and the prospects for women’s professional development are being rearranged in new ways. As a result, a different understanding of what it means to be a parent today is taking shape. Theoretical and Methodological Framework This study is grounded in the concept of the demographic transition and the idea of social modernisation, according to which the decline in fertility is driven by rising educational attainment, urbanization, religious and cultural transformation, shifting values and changing family strategies (Caldwell 2004; Lesthaeghe 2010; McDonald 2000). The approach combines a sociological perspective focusing on value change, parenthood and social mobility (Beck and Beck-Gernsheim 2002; Goldscheider, et al. 2015) with a geographical perspective centred on spatial inequality, local specificities and migration flows (Castles et al. 2014). In this way, the study conceptualises fertility as a social indicator of integration and transformation, which makes it possible to trace deeper processes of change within the Roma community, related to lifestyle, attitudes toward education and children, and expectations regarding the future. Comparative research from Central and Eastern Europe shows that similar patterns of fertility decline, rising educational aspirations and shifting family norms are observed among Roma communities in Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Romania (Kováts 2019; Surdu & Surdu 2006; Vašečka 2012; Kóczé & Popa 2019). These studies highlight that demographic change within Roma groups is embedded in broader regional processes of social modernisation and value transformation. Recent policy and analytical reports from the European Commission and the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights further emphasise the role of social inclusion policies, migration trajectories and educational integration as key determinants shaping reproductive behaviour and demographic transitions among Roma populations across Europe (European Commission 2020; FRA 2022).A mixed-methods design was employed, combining the interpretation of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach allows for capturing both personal narratives and motivations, as well as broader behavioural patterns characteristic of different urban contexts. 87 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings Qualitative component In 2024, forty in-depth interviews were conducted with respondents across eight cities: Asenovgrad, Kyustendil, Dobrich, Lom, Straldzha, Razlog, Ruse and Blagoevgrad. A purposive sampling strategy was used to ensure the inclusion of respondents occupying different social positions and offering diverse viewpoints. Participants were recruited through local community leaders, educational and health mediators, NGOs, municipal representatives and snowball sampling. The selection criteria included age, gender, educational background, economic activity, marital status, religious affiliation (including Evangelical communities) and migration experience. This ensured substantial variation across Roma subgroups and neighbourhood contexts. The qualitative data were analysed through thematic coding. The core analytical categories included migration, early marriage and family strategies, education and parenthood, religion and moral norms, value transformations, economic factors, health practices and the role of institutions. The analytical approach follows the principles of interpretive sociology, prioritising an understanding of the meanings and motivations that participants attribute to their reproductive and family practices rather than statistical generalisation. The interview sample is qualitative and theoretically oriented rather than representative; therefore, potential socially desirable responses may occur, particularly in discussions related to education, religion and future aspirations. Nevertheless, the coherence of the narratives across multiple respondents and locations enhances the analytical validity of the identified trends. Quantitative component The qualitative evidence was complemented by a nationally representative sociological survey of 900 respondents residing in ghettoised urban Roma neighbourhoods. The survey was conducted in November–December 2024 using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling design. The target population consisted of Roma aged 16 and above living in 147 towns where ghettoised Roma structures have been identified. Due to the absence of detailed census information for 2021 at the settlement level, the sampling frame relied on publicly available data from the 2011 census, according to which 170,878 Roma lived in the selected towns (52.5% of all Roma nationally). At the first stage, clusters of five individuals were selected using probability proportional to size (PPS), stratified by region and settlement size (very large, large, medium and small towns). Because Roma populations are highly concentrated in larger cities, an oversampling strategy was applied to smaller towns to ensure adequate geographical representation. This oversampling was adjusted in the final dataset through design weights restoring the structural proportions of the target population. Within each cluster, five interviews were completed, starting from a central public building in the GUS (typically a school or local administrative structure). A random-walk procedure applying the right-hand rule and a fixed step of N = 3 was used to select households, and the respondent within each household was chosen using the “last birthday” method among individuals aged 18 and above. In towns with more than one GUS, clusters were evenly distributed across different neighbourhoods. The final sample consisted of 180 clusters and provides a maximum sampling error of 3.3%. 88 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings Limitations As with any mixed-methods study conducted in marginalised contexts, several limitations must be acknowledged. Self-reported information on fertility and migration may involve recall errors or socially desirable responses, especially regarding early childbearing or household practices. The most mobile or highly marginalised households may remain partially underrepresented despite the stratified design. Qualitative findings cannot be generalised statistically; however, they provide essential interpretative depth that complements the quantitative analysis and allows for tracing internal processes of social and demographic transformation within Roma communities Results The analysis of the empirical data makes it possible to trace how the trends outlined in the theoretical section manifest themselves in the actual demographic behaviour of members of the Roma community. The results reveal a complex picture in which economic conditions, education, age structure, cultural attitudes and family roles influence decision-making regarding childbirth, namely both the choice to have a first child and the total number of children. Alongside persistent traditional patterns, new models have emerged, associated with planned fertility and aspirations toward greater social mobility. Thus, fertility appears not merely as a biological or demographic process, but as an outcome of the interaction between values, opportunities and constraints experienced by different groups within the Roma population. The dynamics of demographic indicators have varied in intensity across ethnic groups over the years. Since 1989, demographic trends have been strongly shaped by socio-economic factors. Fertility declined across all ethnic communities as a result of the severe economic crisis and the sense of uncertainty generated by broad social transformations. Nevertheless, the decline was least pronounced among Roma. Educational attainment, material and cultural needs, and parental aspirations concerning upbringing and the perceived value of children contributed to maintaining high fertility and positive natural population growth within the Roma population. Data from the 1992 and 2001 population censuses show that Roma were the only ethnic group in the country whose numbers increased during this period despite the considerable discrepancy between official statistics and scientific demographic research, the latter indicating an even greater rise. Census survey data from 1992 and 2001 also reveal a high level of community closure and low motivation for emigration; when emigration occurred, it was rarely accompanied by a permanent change of residence. This indicates that the main driver of population growth among Roma during the period was high natural increase. Based on official census data, natural increase among the Roma population between 1992 and 2001 is estimated at 18.7‰. Assuming mortality at around 8‰, fertility can be approximated at about 26‰. These figures are supported by the study conducted by Tomova (2005), commissioned by the Council of Ministers, which tasked the National Statistical Institute with producing a report on fertility among the major ethnic communities based on the ethnic self-identification of mothers recorded in the 2001 census. Although this report was not published in the official statistical bulletins of 89 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings NSI, its findings presented in Table 1 confirm that fertility among Roma was the highest of all ethnic groups. In fact, it corresponds to the levels recorded among Turks and Muslim Bulgarians in the early 1970s (Ilieva 2013). Table 1. Fertility, infant mortality, mortality and natural increase (‰) by ethnic groups as of 1 March 2001 Demographic indicators Total Bulgarians Turks Roma Fertility (by ethnic affiliation of the mother) (‰) 8.5 6.9 13 26.7 Total fertility rate (2001–2003) 1.22 1.03 1.62 2.81 Infant mortality (children under 1 year) (‰) 13.4 9,9 17.8 25 Mortality (‰) 14.2 15 10.3 7.3 Natural increase (‰) -5.7 -8.1 2.7 19.4 Source: National Statistical Institute, unpublished statistical report based on the 2001 Census; Tomova 2005. After 2002, systematic efforts were launched to ensure full enrolment of Roma children in primary education (grades 1–4) and to keep them in school for as long as possible (Tomova 2009). These measures contributed to a decline in fertility and, in particular, in adolescent or early childbearing within the community. Early fertility (under the age of 18) decreased from 690‰ to 508‰ between 1992 and 2001, and the rate of extremely early childbirth (under the age of 15) was reduced by half from 70.1‰ to 35.6‰. Despite this substantial decline in fertility over the past 15 years, the previously established favourable age structure has maintained and even increased the proportion of Roma in younger age groups. In 2011, approximately 39.1% of Roma in Bulgaria were under the age of 20, compared to 22.4% among the Turkish population and 15.5% among Bulgarians. This more favourable age structure predetermines higher fertility among Roma in the medium and long term, even in the context of a trend toward smaller households. The large proportion of women and men in active reproductive age groups “sustains” the demographic reproduction of the community at levels higher than those of other ethnic groups. At the same time, this demographic “youth” does not automatically translate into more favourable health and social outcomes. Roma remain the ethnic group with the highest infant mortality rate 25.0 per 1.000 live births, or 2.6 times higher than that of Bulgarians. The main reasons include persistent and widespread poverty, inadequate access to health services, poor hygienic living conditions and the high incidence of early and frequent childbirth among mothers, which increases the risk of complications for both women and newborns. In addition, Roma have the highest share of premature mortality and the lowest life expectancy in the country (Tomova et al. 2011). Taken together, these factors outline a paradoxical situation: although fertility remains relatively high, a substantial part of it is “lost” due to poor health conditions and insufficient maternal care and prevention. Thus, the structural demographic advantages of 90 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings the community such as youthfulness and the potential for natural population growth are neutralised or weakened by conditions that reproduce vulnerability and poverty across generations. This links reproductive behaviour to broader processes of social inequality. The interaction between high fertility, high infant mortality and early childbirth creates a cycle in which families often have more children not as part of long-term family planning, but as an attempt to secure the family’s future under conditions of uncertainty. In the absence of access to quality healthcare and education, such a pattern hampers upward social mobility and deepens social distance and disparities between ethnic groups. For this reason, the dynamics of fertility cannot be understood in isolation. They are the outcome of specific health-related, socio-economic and cultural conditions that shape not only the opportunities for parenthood but also its risks. The lack of official statistics on the natural population movement disaggregated by ethnicity makes it difficult to determine precise values for demographic indicators. Roma are characterised by the highest proportion of large families, a pattern linked to cultural ideals that associate family status with attaining the desired number of children. A large family represents the highest value, and the greatest authority is attributed to those who originate from a big, numerous and influential kin group (Marushiakova and Popov 1993). The “closed” structure of Roma groups is one of the factors that limits the penetration of modern lifestyles and contributes to the preservation of patriarchal traditions and their associated value systems. In summary, prior to the country’s socio-economic transformation, fertility among Roma was estimated at around 28 per mille. The transition and its related hardships led to a sharp decline of 8–10 points in the early 21st century. Similar trends were also recorded in the in-depth interviews conducted in 2024. The data show that all respondents reported a substantial decrease in fertility in recent years, identifying the period following Bulgaria’s accession to the EU and the intensification of emigration as a key turning point in this change. According to the respondents, many young families postpone having children or plan to have fewer children because moving abroad requires income stabilisation, time for adaptation and securing housing. Some interviewees further noted that living and working conditions in host countries encourage a different outlook on family planning. Greater emphasis is placed on professional development and educational opportunities, which affects the timing of the first birth and the overall number of children. Alongside emigration, respondents also associate the observed decline in fertility with changing attitudes toward parenthood. Increasingly, they articulate a desire for children to have “a better start and career development,” which implies investments in education, health, housing and a stable family environment. These factors lead many parents to make more cautious decisions regarding the number of children. In this sense, the reduction in fertility is not explained solely by economic hardship, but also by changing expectations and standards concerning “what it means to be a good parent.” All these observations point to a gradual transformation of traditional family models. Although fertility remains relatively high compared to other ethnic groups in the country, the processes of planned parenthood, postponement of first childbirth and the trend toward smaller families are becoming increasingly pronounced. 91 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings Respondents perceive this shift not simply as external “pressure” from modern life, but as part of a broader change in values, expectations and visions for the future. Based on the specific characteristics of the demographic transition among the Roma population and the persisting age structure, it can be assumed that if mortality is around 8–9‰ and fertility decreases by another three to four points, reaching 16–17‰, the natural increase would amount to approximately 6–8‰. The main drivers of this process are large-scale labour and seasonal migration of young people to Western Europe, shifting value orientations toward education and family life, as well as the influence of religious movements and health interventions. Illustrative excerpts from the interviews include: “Fertility has been decreasing for about 10 years now” (Ruse, female, 43, local government representative); “There are no people of our age with four or five children anymore; most have one or two. Things have changed a lot for us Roma as well” (Asenovgrad, Roma, 34); “Young people don’t want to have children anymore — it’s not like before when people had five or six” (Lom, Roma, 72); “In the past people had children without thinking too much. Now they first look at whether they have a job and whether they can afford a child, and only then decide” (Kyustendil, Roma woman, 29); “Young people want to settle first to work, to have a home, and only then have children. They’re not rushing anymore” (Dobrich, Roma, 38). Indirect insights into the dynamics of fertility can also be drawn from the results of the nationally representative survey conducted among Roma living in ghettoised urban structures in Bulgaria. The findings show that families with three or fewer children are becoming increasingly typical. Although gradual, this trend began to take shape during the first decade of the 21st century, with the most substantial shift observed in the transition from families with more than four children to families with three or fewer. Previous research confirms this trend, indicating that Roma households have an average of 2.9 children, which reflects an accelerated transition and a shift from the traditional family model. Among younger respondents, particularly those aged up to 25, the ideal of a three-child family remains widespread (with an average of 2.6 children), suggesting that the intention to have a third child remains persistent (Ilieva and Bardarov 2022). The analysis of the quantitative data reveals a clearly expressed and statistically significant association between respondents’ age and the number of children in the household. This association is confirmed by the high value of Cramér’s V (V = 0.791), indicating a strong relationship between the two variables. The share of individuals with three or more children is highest among respondents aged 46–65 (30.5%) and 36–45 (23.9%). A similar tendency is observed among those aged 65+, where 17.7% also report having three or more children. These results outline a persistent pattern of high fertility among older generations, characteristic of traditional reproductive norms in the Roma community. In younger age groups, however, this pattern shifts markedly. Among respondents aged 30–35, the highest relative share is recorded among those with two children (43.5%), suggesting that the notion of a “large family” remains present but no longer dominates to the extent observed in older generations. The most pronounced change is observed among Roma aged 15–29: the largest share report having one child (59.6%), while 91.7% state that they 92 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings do not yet have children at the time of the survey. This reflects a substantial shift in reproductive behaviour, whereby early childbearing, long considered a dominant model in the Roma community, is no longer as relevant among the youngest generations. These findings indicate a transformation in fertility patterns that affects not only the number of children but also the timing of parenthood. Older generations were socialised in a cultural context in which early family formation and a larger number of children were key elements of the life course and social status. Among younger Roma, however, a process of demographic and cultural adaptation is emerging, manifested through: • postponement of the first child; • reduction in the number of children; • stronger subjective orientation toward planned parenthood. Educational attainment has a direct impact on reproductive behaviour, expectations toward parenthood and the perceived model of family life. Cross-analysis between education and number of children reveals a statistically significant association between the two variables, confirmed by the value of Cramér’s V (V = 0.402). Although this association is not as strong as the relationship between age and number of children, it is sufficiently robust to outline clear differences between groups with different educational statuses. The data show that the highest share of respondents with three or more children is observed among those with no schooling (68.1%), those with primary education (up to 4th grade) – 67.6%, and those with lower secondary education – 51.5%. These figures indicate that lower educational attainment is associated with higher fertility and larger families. The opposite trend is observed among respondents with secondary and higher education. In these groups, the largest share consists of individuals with two children 51.5% among those with secondary education and 66.7% among those with higher education. Here, the model is no longer one of high fertility; families with one or two children are the most widespread. This reflects a more moderate and planned pattern of parenthood. The results therefore suggest that changes in fertility among Roma cannot be explained solely by generational differences; they are also linked to educational participation. Where educational attainment is higher, there is evidence of: • a lower number of children per family; • a greater likelihood of forming a two-child family model; • a more pronounced orientation toward planned and postponed parenthood. In this sense, education functions as an important factor reshaping perceptions of family and parenthood. It does not entirely replace traditional models, but modifies them, producing internal differentiation within the Roma community: a high-fertility model characteristic of groups with low education and a more moderate one prevailing among better-educated Roma. These findings indicate that rising educational levels particularly among young Roma are likely contributing to the transformation in reproductive behaviour observed in the previous section. In other words, the changes in fertility patterns progress both “by generation” and “by education.” Alongside education, place of residence also influences the reproductive behaviour of Roma. The data show a statistically significant association between the size of the settlement and the number of children in the household. The 93 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings calculated value of Cramér’s V (V = 0.833) indicates a strong and clearly expressed relationship between the two variables. A distinct inverse relationship is observed: the number of children increases as the size of the settlement decreases. The highest share of Roma with three or more children is found in towns with up to 10.000 inhabitants (52.6%). This trend is likely related to more strongly embedded traditional family models, socio-cultural expectations and the role of the extended family in smaller settlements, as well as more limited access to family planning services. At the opposite end of the spectrum, in the largest cities (over 200.000 inhabitants) the share of individuals with three or more children decreases to 36.4%. Other models of family planning emerge in these urban contexts: individuals with one child are most strongly represented precisely in the largest cities (52.1%), as well as those who report having no children (43.2%). The share of two-child families is also highest in large cities (40.9%), indicating the dominance of a “small family model” in urban environments likely shaped by economic factors, higher employment rates, different life priorities and higher levels of education. A significant association is also observed between the number of children and respondents’ employment status. The share of individuals with three or more children is highest among the unemployed (79.8%), whereas among those who are employed this share decreases sharply to 19.1% (Figure 1). The value of Cramér’s V (V = 0.413) indicates a moderate strength of association. This tendency can be interpreted through the lens of economic vulnerability and social strategies of survival: larger families are often linked to lower levels of labour market participation, dependence on social transfers, early marriages and traditional cultural expectations regarding motherhood and fatherhood. Conversely, among employed individuals the lower number of children may be attributed to limited resources for raising a large family, labour market pressures, aspirations for further qualification and different reproductive attitudes. The data also demonstrate a strong association between the number of children in the household and income levels. The calculated value of Cramér’s V (V = 0.589) indicates a high strength of association between the two variables. Figure 1.Number of children by employment status 100 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings “One day when the child grows up and becomes educated, you know that they can support you, that they can help you, that they can be your backing. The best investment anyone can make in Bulgaria is to invest in their child” (Blagoevgrad, Roma man, pastor, 39); “The best investment a person can make is to invest in their child” (Blagoevgrad, Roma man, pastor, 39). In recent years, in some localities institutional programmes for early childhood development and health education have been successfully implemented in partnership with health mediators. These interventions have had a visible impact on awareness of reproductive health and the risks associated with early pregnancy, encouraging the use of health and social services that were previously little known or difficult to access for Roma families. Local health teams and mediators play a significant role, functioning as trusted intermediaries between institutions and families because they are members of the community themselves. Their presence facilitates communication, overcomes cultural and linguistic barriers and supports participation in preventive examinations, health education sessions, family planning activities, and consultations on maternal and child health. Gradually, these activities have led to shifts in attitudes towards family planning, hygiene, responsible parenthood and the timing of the first birth. Increasingly, young women recognise that early pregnancy entails health and social risks and that education and professional development may precede the formation of a family. Some respondents attribute this transformation precisely to the role of mediators and to the regular information sessions and consultations. As a result, in some localities a decline in early marriages and in the number of births among the youngest age groups has been observed, indicating that institutional support can accelerate the transition toward more planned and conscious parenthood. “One of the projects is on early childhood development. There is an obstetrician-gynecologist who comes once every two weeks. Roma have learned about it and go there. Before that they had no contact with such a medical specialist. We also have three health mediators. They constantly visit the neighbourhood. There is perhaps an effect, because fertility has decreased — we explain the risks of early pregnancy and if in the past families had seven or eight children, now they have two or three” (Straldzha, local government representative, man, 48). When analysing fertility, it is important to account for stratification within the Roma population. The interviews reveal differences between “long-settled” and “newly arrived” groups; between more educated, integrated and socially active groups on the one hand, and more traditional, poor and isolated groups on the other; between religious and non-religious communities; and between larger cities and smaller settlements. In some neighbourhood such as those in Lom and Razlog higher levels of education and material security are observed, whereas in others (e.g. Straldzha) traditional models remain more strongly pronounced. These differences confirm that the decline in fertility is not a uniform process but unfolds at different speeds and with varying depth depending on the local context. 101 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings Discussion The results outline a picture of a specific demographic transition taking place within Roma communities in Bulgaria. On the one hand, they confirm earlier empirical observations of higher fertility rates and a more favourable age structure of the Roma population compared to other ethnic groups in the country (Tomova 2005; Ilieva 2013). On the other hand, it becomes clear that Roma are not “outside” the broader demographic trends but follow them albeit with delay and along specific trajectories strongly influenced by socioeconomic inequalities, spatial segregation and internal cultural transformations. In this sense, the results challenge the persistent stereotype of “consistently high” Roma fertility and show that reproductive behaviour within Roma communities is changing towards more planned and limited parenthood. Importantly, this process unfolds under conditions of poverty, restricted access to services and structural discrimination. At the macro level, official statistics and previous studies indicate that Roma were the only major ethnic group in Bulgaria that maintained a positive natural increase during the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century (Tomova 2005; Tomova et al. 2011), with high fertility offsetting unfavourable health indicators and shorter life expectancy. In the last two decades, however, there has been a noticeable decline in the total fertility rate as well as in teenage and exceptionally early childbearing, which brings some Roma groups closer to the mainstream patterns of demographic transition. Yet the demographic “advantages” of youth and high natural increase are neutralised by high infant and premature mortality and by adverse socioeconomic conditions (Tomova et al. 2011). Thus, the Roma demographic transition does not represent a smooth outcome of “modernisation”, but rather an adaptation to changing circumstances under persistent structural inequalities. The strong statistical relationship between age and number of children highlights pronounced generational differentiation in reproductive behaviour. Older generations, socialised in the context of traditional patriarchal norms and the high symbolic value of large families, reflect the classic image of Roma family life described in earlier research (Marushiakova and Popov 1993). Among the youngest age groups, however, a significant shift is evident: more individuals postpone having their first child, and the ideal of three or more children is gradually giving way to two–child or even one–child models. Marriage and parenthood are no longer the earliest or sole forms of social recognition. Employment, migration, stable income and secure housing precede childbearing decisions. In this regard, part of the Roma population increasingly approaches the wider European trend of delayed parenthood, though this transformation does not evolve uniformly across all subgroups within the community. The findings also confirm the central role of education as a key regulator of reproductive behaviour. Where educational attainment is low, the traditional pattern of high fertility persists; where it is higher, more moderate and planned family models are dominant. Education is perceived simultaneously as an instrument of social mobility and as a condition for “good parenting”, encouraging investment in fewer children so that parents can provide a better future for them. In this way, education indirectly influences fertility, becoming an internal mechanism of self-regulation. At the same time, experiences of discrimination, school segregation and limited professional opportunities undermine the belief 102 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings that education leads to equal chances. Decisions about the number of children are therefore taken within a context of both high aspirations and uncertainty regarding whether society will permit equal opportunities for the next generation. The relationship between fertility and economic status is equally revealing. The highest share of large families is observed among those with the lowest income, but among them the share of individuals without children is also high. This suggests that extreme poverty produces different and sometimes opposing reproductive strategies: large families may function as a strategy of security based on kinship networks and traditional roles, whereas others postpone or refrain from parenthood due to extreme economic uncertainty. Middle-income groups are the most strongly associated with oneor two-child family models, reflecting the search for balance between economic stability and parenthood. This indicates that poverty does not automatically result in high fertility. Rather, reproductive strategies vary by available resources, expectations and opportunities for mobility. Migration emerges as one of the most powerful drivers of changing fertility patterns. The large-scale outflow of young people of working and reproductive age creates a demographic vacuum in Roma neighbourhoods. The number of children and young families declines, whereas the relative share of elderly people and children whose parents live abroad increases. This affects the internal social dynamics of the settlements, the local economy and the operation of schools, kindergartens and social services. At the same time, migration acts as a channel for the transfer of new social norms: later first births, fewer children and greater emphasis on professional and personal development. Thus, migration simultaneously “drains” local demographic potential and accelerates the internal demographic transition. Complicating matters further, a considerable proportion of children born to Bulgarian Roma are born abroad and remain invisible in national statistics. The analysis of interviews reveals a marked transformation of family roles, especially among Roma women. Increasing numbers of women enter the labour market, participate in educational programmes, obtain professional qualifications and engage in public and community activities. This emancipation reshapes internal family dynamics: women participate in decisions concerning the timing and number of children, and motherhood is no longer the only mechanism of social legitimacy. Women thus emerge as key agents of internal social change. The influence of religious communities, most notably evangelical and Pentecostal churches, is particularly interesting. They function as an internal mechanism of modernisation, promoting responsible parenting, discipline, legitimacy of marriages and limiting the number of children to those for whom adequate care and education can be provided. In many cases, religious leaders contribute to reducing early marriages and discontinuing practices that hinder education and integration. Religion therefore facilitates the transition from high to planned fertility and reinforces the increasingly active role of women in family decisions. Institutional interventions including programmes for early childhood development, health education and the work of health and educational mediators add another significant dimension. These interventions are most successful when they are locally embedded and culturally sensitive. Where stable and con- 103 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings tinuous, they contribute to a decrease in early marriage and births among the youngest age groups, indicating that institutional support can accelerate the transition towards more informed and conscious parenthood. Finally, the interviews underline the internal heterogeneity of Roma communities. Differences between “local” and “newly settled” groups, between segregated and more integrated neighbourhoods, between large and small settlements, and between religious and non-religious communities, show that the decline in fertility is not a uniform process. It evolves at different speeds and depths depending on the local context. In small towns and highly isolated neighbourhoods traditional models of early marriage and high fertility remain more persistent, while in larger cities and among the more educated, religiously engaged or migration-mobile groups the transition towards limited and planned fertility is significantly accelerated. Roma therefore cannot be viewed as a homogeneous demographic category, and policies targeting them must take into account territorial and group-specific characteristics. In conclusion, fertility in Roma communities functions not only as a demographic indicator but also as a sensitive reflection of broader processes of social inequality, discrimination and the search for mobility. Decisions about the number of children and the timing of childbirth are embedded in a web of economic constraints, migration strategies, educational ambitions, religious influences and institutional opportunities. The decline in fertility should not be interpreted either as a “threat” or as an automatic marker of successful integration. Rather, it represents a complex adaptation to changing conditions in which traditional models are reshaped under the impact of new values and persistent structural barriers. Understanding these processes requires moving beyond quantitative indicators and examining the interplay between values, inequalities and opportunities for social mobility. Only in this way can policies be designed not merely to regulate demographic behaviour but to meaningfully support Roma families in their effort to provide a better life for fewer but better supported children. Conclusion Changes in fertility among Roma communities cannot be attributed to a single determining factor. They are the outcome of the combined influence of economic rationalisation, social mobility, cultural adaptation and institutional mediation. The analysis outlines a clear and consistent trend of declining fertility beginning in the early twenty-first century and intensifying thereafter as a result of largescale labour migration, rising educational aspirations, the growing social role of women and the influence of religious communities. At the core of this shift lies the transition from a traditional to a modernised family model, in which the number of children is no longer the key priority; instead, the focus is placed on children’s opportunities for education and future realisation. The decline in fertility, combined with migration, education and value transformation, is producing profound social and demographic changes within Roma communities themselves. The social consequences of this transformation are dual. On the one hand, it creates opportunities for upward social mobility through higher educational achievements and greater parental engagement. On the other hand, it generates new institutional challenges, such as adapting schools to children return- 104 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings ing from abroad, ensuring cross-sectoral coordination and maintaining continuous monitoring of demographic processes at the local level. In the long term, declining fertility may become a positive resource for social integration if supported by consistent educational, health and social policies. Such policies should not aim to increase the number of children but rather to improve their quality of life, education and developmental prospects. In this sense, the decline of fertility should not be interpreted as a sign of demographic crisis but as an indicator of social transformation in which Roma families gradually turn towards models of modern, conscious and responsible parenthood. Demographic decline, if not accompanied by social inclusion, may widen the internal inequalities between integrated and non-integrated Roma. At the same time, it provides an opportunity for smaller but more educated generations to become engines of social change if institutional support is granted. A longterm social policy is needed to combine educational encouragement, economic activation and equal access to services in order to transform fertility changes into positive social capital rather than a source of new vulnerabilities. Despite numerous local and national initiatives, the interviews reveal a lack of strategic thinking and continuity. Changes in fertility remain insufficiently monitored, and data on Roma populations are often fragmented and incomplete. This hinders the development of effective policies and leads to reactive rather than preventive institutional responses. There is a need for systematic local monitoring and analysis including collaboration between municipalities, universities and civil society organisations to ensure up-to-date knowledge of demographic and social processes in Roma neighbourhoods. The main policy challenges can be summarised in several key directions: • Establishing regular monitoring and access to reliable statistical data; • Ensuring active cross-institutional coordination to create a common framework for interaction between systems such as education, health care and social services; • Providing long-term funding to guarantee the sustainability of mediator programmes; • Strengthening work with families, religious leaders and youth to support new values of responsible parenthood and social mobility; • Supporting local economic initiatives related to training and employment of parents, which contributes to changing attitudes towards having many children. If these directions are implemented consistently, the institutional environment will not simply react to demographic changes but will be able to transform them into a resource for social integration and sustainable development. Acknowledgements This paper presents the results of the “Spatial models of the Roma ghettoized urban structures in Bulgaria", a project funded by the Bulgarian National Science Fund (BNSF), Ministry of Education and Science, contract KП-06-H65/7 from 12.12.2022. 105 GeoStudies 2(@): 85–106 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/geostudies.2.e180731 Nadezhda Ilieva & Kamelia Petkova: Fertility among Roma in Urban Settings Additional information Conflict of interest The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Ethical statement No ethical statement was reported. Author contributions Kamelia Petkova and Nadezhda Ilieva jointly designed the study, collected and analysed the data, and wrote and revised the manuscript. Both authors have approved the final version. 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