Impacts of sea level rise on economic growth in developing Asia

Asuncion, Ruben Carlo; Lee, Minsoo Working Paper Impacts of sea level rise on economic growth in developing Asia ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 507 Provided in Cooperation with: Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila Suggested Citation: Asuncion, Ruben Carlo; Lee, Minsoo (2017) : Impacts of sea level rise on economic growth in developing Asia, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 507, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Manila, https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS178618-2 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/169338 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AsiAn Development BAnk 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia This paper examines the impact of global sea level rise (SLR) on the economic growth, migration, and tourism from various empirical studies and consolidates several sea level projections by 2100 under different scenarios. The paper points out that the regions or countries most vulnerable to SLR include atoll countries and small islands states like Kiribati and Singapore. In addition, it tackles several adaptation cost estimates for selected countries in developing Asia and summarizes adaptive strategies and mitigation as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The paper also presents policy recommendations for developing Asia to cope with increasing sea levels. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to a large share of the world’s poor. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. adb economics working paper series NO. 507 January 2017 ImpActS Of SEA LEvEL RISE ON EcONOmIc GROwth IN DEvELOpING ASIA Ruben Carlo Asuncion and Minsoo Lee  ADB Economics Working Paper Series Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia Ruben Carlo Asuncion and Minsoo Lee No. 507 | January 2017 Ruben Carlo Asuncion ([email protected]) is chief economist in Union Bank of the Philippines and Minsoo Lee ([email protected]) is senior economist in the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department of the Asian Development Bank. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2017 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2017. Printed in the Philippines. ISSN 2313-6537 (Print), 2313-6545 (e-ISSN) Publication Stock No. WPS178618-2 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS178618-2 Cataloging-In-Publication Data Asian Development Bank. Impacts of sea level rise on economic growth in developing Asia. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2017. 1. Climate change. 2. Economic growth. 3. Sea level rise. I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. 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Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish toobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use theADB logo. Notes: 1. In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. 2. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda   CONTENTS TABLES AND FIGURES iv ABSTRACT v I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. THE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE 4 A. Economic Growth 4 B. Migration 5 C. Tourism 7 III. SEA LEVEL RISE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 7 A. Retreat 8 B Accommodation 8 C. Protection 8 IV. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 10 V. CONCLUSIONS 11 REFERENCES 13  TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES 1 Summary of Sea Level Rise Impact Estimates on Global Economic Growth 5 2 Migration Impact Estimates on Developing Asia 6 3 Sea Level Rise Impact Estimates on Selected Countries in Developing Asia and the Pacific 10 FIGURES 1 Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change, 1880–2014 1 2 Mean Sea Level Trends in Developing Asia 3   ABSTRACT Global sea level rise (SLR) variations have undeniably begun to make an impact on highly vulnerable economies. These impacts of SLR are a key component of the projected economic damage of climate change, an important input to climate change policies and adaptive measures. This paper considers SLR projections and its impact on the economy and includes a consolidation of various related studies. Estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) loss by 2100 ranges from 0.3% to as high as of 9.3% (Hinkel et al. 2014; Pycroft, Abrell, and Ciscar 2015). Climate change impact should be addressed at the global level through a locally focused effort where education and acceptance by all stakeholders are crucial and warranted. Further, this paper tackles several adaptive strategies as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The retreat strategy simulates that SLR causes the loss of inundated land and incurs planned relocation (migration) costs above a certain sea level. The accommodation strategy allows usage of vulnerable areas or land and limits damage by floodproofing or raising structures. Finally, the protection strategy projects that land will be protected from SLR damage by sea walls or other barriers of a certain height. On the other hand, Diaz (2016) estimates a median adaptation cost from migration at 16% of GDP under the least-cost strategy by 2050. In general, the education of and the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of SLR adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts on a global scale. Keywords: climate change, economic growth, sea level rise JEL codes: Q50, Q54  I. INTRODUCTION The global sea level during the past few million years’ ice age cycles has been varying by more than 100 meters (m).1 Over the last century, however, sea levels have been rising much faster than in other previous millennia. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration reported that February 2016 had the highest increase in sea height variation at 74.8 millimeters (mm) since 1993 and the global mean sea level change is at 3.4 mm per year.2 Figure 1 shows the historical global average absolute sea level change.3 Figure 1: Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change, 1880–2014 (inches) Note: Data sourced from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (2015) update to data originally published in Church, John A., and Neil J. White. 2011. “Sea Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century.” Surveys in Geophysics 32 (4): 585–602. www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data _cmar.html; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 2015. Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry: Sea Level Rise. www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/ SeaLevelRise/LSA_SLR_timeseries_global.php (accessed 4 July 2016). Source: Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Indicators in the United States. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sealevel (accessed 22 June 2016). Church and White (2011) estimate that the rise in global average sea level from satellite altimeter data is about 0.2 m from 1993 to 2009. Schaeffer et al. (2012) use a semi-empirical model, calibrated with sea level data of the past 100 years, and the resulting estimate is about 0.25 m lower with an unmitigated emissions scenario, but 0.15 m above a hypothetical scenario reducing global emissions to zero by 2016. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 estimated that average global sea levels have increased by around 3 mm annually since the early 1990s and are expected to further increase from 0.75 m to 1.90 m during 1990–2100 as temperatures continue to 1 According to IPCC (2007), the global sea level rose by about 120 m during the several millennia that followed the end of the last ice age (approximately 21,000 years ago) and stabilized between 3,000 and 2,000 years ago. 2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration. https://www.nasa.gov/ (accessed July 2016). 3 Environmental Protection Agency estimates the cumulative changes in sea level for the world’s oceans, based on a combination of long-term tide gauge measurements and recent satellite measurements. –5 0 5 10 15 Trend based on tide gauges (Adjusted sea level) Trend based on tide gauges (Lower bound) Trend based on tide gauges (Upper bound) Satellite measurements 2 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 507 rise. Recent literature (Kopp et al. 2014) projects 20th century global mean sea level estimates at 0.3– 1.2 m using the different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. On the other hand, Mengel et al. (2016) recognize that the accelerating sea level rise (SLR) is mainly due to anthropogenic climate change and project an anthropogenic SLR of 0.28–1.31 m in 2100 for the different concentration scenarios. SLR is caused by the ongoing global climate change such as thermal expansion of ocean waters and melting of land-ice due to higher ambient temperatures. Several studies confirm that increased air temperatures cause thermal expansion of oceans as they absorb 85% of the excess heat trapped by the atmosphere and were the main driver of global SLR for 75–100 years after the start of the industrialization (Cazenave and Llovel 2010; Levitus et al. 2009; Levitus, Antonov, and Boyer 2005; Levitus et al. 2001). Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) also find a significant relationship between sea level and temperature over the period 1800–2000. Another significant factor that affects global SLR is the faster shrinking of land ice—glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets—due to higher temperature (Cazenave and Llovel 2010; Lombard et al. 2005). The rise in sea level is accelerating both globally and regionally in many places. Figure 2 illustrates mean sea level trends of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, Japan, Kiribati, the Philippines, and Singapore. Davao in the Philippines has the highest mean sea level trend at 5.32 millimeters per year (mm/yr) with a 95% confidence interval of +/–1.30 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1948 to 2008, which is equivalent to a change of 0.5 m in 100 years. This is followed by Nagasaki in Japan at 2.2 mm/yr and Singapore at 1.53 mm/yr. Moreover, Strassburg et al. (2015) noted that Southeast Asia has one of the highest sea level trends observed by modern satellites and the long-term sea level trends will continue to be affected by global mean sea level rise occurring now and in the future. Rapid SLR (more than 1 m per century) is adversely affecting the environment, especially the coastal areas. Coastal areas have been used extensively and will continue to increase through the 21st century (IPCC 2007), as various settlements were developed due to access for food and livelihood.4 Ciscar et al. (2012) highlighted that, among the most important sectors affected by climate change (such as agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism), coastal systems are the most negatively affected in all European regions due to increasing sea levels. In fact, Diaz (2016) stressed that coastal sector impacts from SLR are an important component of projected economic damage of climate change. Hauer et al. (2016) found that almost 13 million people may be living in vulnerable regions along coasts in the United States by 2100 if sea levels rise by 1.8 m. Moreover, the most vulnerable to SLR are mostly small island states and atoll countries. An example close to the highlighted and anticipated impact of SLR are: one is Kiribati, an island in the Pacific, and another is the city-state of Singapore, where notably, the impact of SLR is slowly being felt in market and nonmarket areas. According to the World Bank (2013), Kiribati is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change and extreme weather. Kiribati is one of the first Pacific islands that will be in danger of becoming uninhabitable due to climate change (Decloitre 2010). Kiribati is composed of coral atolls and reef islands scattered across a swath of the Pacific Ocean and lies no higher than 1.83 m above sea 4 The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) estimated that 23% of the world’s population, or around 10 million people, live within 100 kilometers’ distance of the coast. Based on the World Resources report, 39% of the world’s population, or 2.2 billion people, lived on or within 100 kilometers of a seashore (UNDP et al. 2000). Recent studies reveal that up to 600 million people live in low elevation coastal zones and 200 million people live within coastal floodplains. Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia | 9  Singapore (30%) have the highest protection costs.10 Protection from SLR can be cost-effective for richer countries vulnerable to SLR rather than poorer countries threatened by rising sea levels. Again, Dronkers et al. (1990) are of the view that, under the protection option, a much larger proportion of these ecosystems would be lost; hence, protective structures should be designed to avoid adverse environmental impacts. On the economic impact of climate change, countries and communities would face the costs for the necessary structures that would protect economic development but could adversely affect economic interests that depend on recreation and fisheries. The estimated total cost of defenses would amount to about $500 billion over the next 10 years (which only includes the marginal or added costs and is not discounted). Thus, the overall protection costs will be considerably higher (Dronkers et al. 1990). Therefore, decisions should be based on both long-term and short-term costs and benefits to ensure sustainable coastal development. Moreover, the degradation of environment could disrupt family life and create social instability under the protection scenario and community participation in the decision-making process is the best way to ensure that these implications are recognized, regardless of the response eventually chosen (Dronkers, et al 1990). Again, the protection efforts may need regional and global cooperation to maximize their impact. More importantly, it is crucial to distinguish and identify the various types of costs associated with SLR. Typically, SLR costs are either adaptation cost, which is the cost of protecting the coastal regions or the cost of moving people to higher regions, and the economic costs brought about by the flooding or inundation of land. Diaz (2016) segregated the different SLR costs into either protection, retreat, or flood costs, covering what are typically the types of SLR costs using new open-source optimization model, Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). The CIAM assesses coastal impacts by disaggregating the least-cost adaptation decisions and determines an efficient strategy for adaptation at the local level. Thus, the advantage is that it not only produces aggregate or global cost levels but also describes the impacts at a local level, where retreat is often defined as a more costefficient adaptation strategy than merely protection. Table 3 outlines the national adaptation cost estimates of selected countries in developing Asia and the Pacific for the least-cost strategy in RCP8.5. Note that the columns from left to right describe the net present value of SLR impacts from 2010 to 2100 and the annual cost in 2050 as a percentage of national GDP, first as total cost and then decomposed into protection cost, retreat cost, expected flood cost, and the residual cost of inundation and wetland loss.11 Many small Pacific countries are included in the top 15 national adaptation cost estimates for SLR. The PRC, Indonesia, 10 Diaz (2016) also estimated total protection costs (as percentage of 2050 GDP) for the following economies: Bangladesh, 33%; Cambodia, 0%; PRC, 37%; Fiji, 0%; Georgia, 0%; Hong Kong, China, 0%; India, 31%; Indonesia, 8%; Japan, 19%; Kiribati, 0%; Malaysia, 12%; Maldives, 5%; Marshall Islands, 0%; Federated States of Micronesia, 2%; Myanmar, 2%; Nauru, 0%; Pakistan, 2%; Palau, 0%; Papua New Guinea, 0%; Philippines, 7%; Samoa, 0%; Singapore, 30%; Solomon Islands, 0%; Sri Lanka, 48%; Thailand, 31%; Timor-Leste, 0%; Tonga, 65%; Tuvalu, 20%; Vanuatu, 0%; and Viet Nam, 52%. 11 Protection construction costs are assumed to be linear to coastline length and quadratic to sea wall height, reflecting the increasing need for a structural foundation. There is also an annual maintenance cost and an opportunity cost to the occupied land. Gradual retreat incurs adaptation costs associated with redeveloping and relocating the affected people and infrastructure further inland. The expected cost of flooding is computed as the integral overall sea level extremes that exceed the current adaptation level. The incremental inundation of unprotected coastal land causes damage based on the extent of national land endowment lost and assumed to correspond in value to interior land. Wetland loss is an increasing function in the annual rate of SLR; permanent loss occurs when the rate exceeds a critical threshold for vertical accretion or if protection is chosen, as this physically prevents the natural migration of inhabitants (Diaz 2016). 10 | ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 507 Malaysia, and India belong to the top 15 countries that have high national adaptation cost estimates based on net present value between 2010 and 2100. Table 3: Sea Level Rise Impact Estimates on Selected Countries in Developing Asia and the Pacific Country NPV ($ billion) 2050 Total (% of GDP) Protection (% of total) Retreat (% of total) Flood (% of total) Residual (% of total) Marshall Islands 1.2 7.6 0.0 17.0 0.0 83.0 Maldives 9.8 7.5 50.0 31.0 0.0 64.0 Tuvalu 0.1 4.6 0.0 18.0 0.0 82.0 Kiribati 0.5 4.1 0.0 20.0 0.0 80.0 Tonga 0.9 2.5 65.0 2.0 0.0 32.0 Palau 0.3 1.9 0.0 15.0 0.1 85.0 Federated States o f Micronesia 0.6 1.8 2.0 20.0 0.1 77.0 Nauru 0.1 1.7 0.0 40.0 0.0 60.0 Median Country 1.1 0.1 0.0 16.0 0.0 79.0 GDP = gross domestic product, NPV = net present value. Source: Diaz, Delavane B. 2016. “Estimating Global Damages from Sea Level Rise with the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM).” Climatic Change 137 (1): 143–56. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1675-4 IV. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS SLR and its impact on economic efficiency have been studied, and the probable impact on global GDP is known. The CIAM has also projected local or country-level impacts that are very important to consider moving on with adaptation strategies. On the global scale, the Institute on Science for Global Policy (ISGP 2015), through its Climate Change Program put forward how to mitigate and/or adapt to the anticipated impact of changing climates (e.g., drought, SLR, severe storms, warming seas, and oceans). In particular, the ISGP recommends the following for issues concerning SLR. Recognizing the historic records and current projections indicating that the sea level can rise significantly within a short period of time (e.g., life cycle of a mortgage), it is of vital importance for the economic health and sustainability of the world that policy makers at all levels develop long-term anticipatory plans that (i) create metrics-driven benchmarks for the implementation of policy actions; (ii) identify strategies for addressing the overlapping issues of health, freshwater, food, shelter, infrastructure, and safety; and (iii) consider the potential relocation and/or restructuring of affected communities. Policies need to be developed through extensive community education and engagement, and need to consider social, environmental, and economic issues related to societal inequities and vulnerable communities. Dronkers et al. (1990) put forward three aspects of policy making regarding SLR: (i) national coastal planning; (ii) international cooperation; and (iii) research, data, and information. In the area of localized coastal planning, coastal nations are encouraged to implement comprehensive coastal zone management plans. To increase the likelihood of success against SLR, coastal areas at risk should be identified and known clearly. More importantly, countries should ensure that coastal development does not increase vulnerability to SLR. The different aspects required to help coastal development to Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia | 11  be environmentally aligned to coastal protection plans should be secured. Moreover, emergency preparedness, coastal response mechanisms, and disaster relief schemes should be reviewed and further strengthened. In international cooperation, a continuing effort to put in the forefront the effects and potential impact of SLR needs to be maintained. Technical assistance and capacity-building measures should be implemented to help better prepare vulnerable nations. Furthermore, international organizations should continuously support local efforts to contain population growth in coastal areas. Finally, research, data, and information dissemination should continuously be made crucial in the campaign to help vulnerable countries and other stakeholders protect themselves from the various impacts of SLR. SLR research and studies should be strengthened and maintained. The network of global ocean observatories should be continuously developed and seriously implemented. Data and information on sea level change and various adaptive options should be made widely available. The application at local levels where SLR impacts so far are being felt by communities is important and crucial to the success of these recommendations. Note that the “localization” of education campaign and the relevance and accuracy of data to educate the local communities will play a huge role in making the SLR reality a personal responsibility of each person eventually affected by climate change through SLR. V. CONCLUSIONS This survey of SLR and its economic impacts provides a clear window to the effects of SLR on future economic activities, not just globally but also particularly on some developing Asian countries. The global perspective of some of the models considered here provide insight into the possible losses brought about by the increasing sea level. By 2100, economic losses may account for as much as 9.3% of global GDP and, as discussed, may vary by country. Developing Asian countries that have been widely studied were included to provide a local context for the discussions. Specifically, the examples of Kiribati and Singapore have been highlighted to bring to the fore the immediate impact of SLR as it is now. A locally focused adaptation strategy is very important as every single member of the population directly affected by SLR will have to take responsibility in one way or another. The education of and the acceptance by the concerned local community will be crucial in the successful implementation of SLR adaptation strategies, notwithstanding parallel mitigation efforts by everyone. The local authorities take on the role of emphasizing the need for long-term coastal adaptation strategies as central to addressing SLR. The effects of SLR are undeniable. Low-lying countries are now experiencing what the scientists and other scholars have widely studied and researched. Thus, international efforts to put the impacts and potential effects of SLR in the forefront are important and need to be continued. Technical assistance and capacity-building measures should be carried out to help prepare the most vulnerable economies for catastrophic impacts. Worldwide efforts, through international organizations, must continue to support the localization of efforts to alleviate the impacts of climate change through SLR. Research and consequently the data that it will further produce should be made available and information dissemination intensified for vulnerable countries and other important stakeholders to be protected from the impacts of SLR.  REFERENCES Alexander, Kim S., Anthony Ryan, and Thomas G. Measham. 2012. “Managed Retreat of Coastal Communities: Understanding Responses to Projected Sea Level Rise.” Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 55 (4): 409–33. Anthoff, David, Robert J. Nicholls, and Richard S. J. 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Press release, 8 January. http://media.unwto.org/press-release/2016-0118/international-tourist-arrivals-4-reach-record-12-billion-2015 (accessed 20 November 2016). ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK AsiAn Development BAnk 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia This paper examines the impact of global sea level rise (SLR) on the economic growth, migration, and tourism from various empirical studies and consolidates several sea level projections by 2100 under different scenarios. The paper points out that the regions or countries most vulnerable to SLR include atoll countries and small islands states like Kiribati and Singapore. In addition, it tackles several adaptation cost estimates for selected countries in developing Asia and summarizes adaptive strategies and mitigation as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. The paper also presents policy recommendations for developing Asia to cope with increasing sea levels. About the Asian Development Bank ADB’s vision is an Asia and Pacific region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their people. Despite the region’s many successes, it remains home to a large share of the world’s poor. ADB is committed to reducing poverty through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Based in Manila, ADB is owned by 67 members, including 48 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. adb economics working paper series NO. 507 January 2017 ImpActS Of SEA LEvEL RISE ON EcONOmIc GROwth IN DEvELOpING ASIA Ruben Carlo Asuncion and Minsoo Lee