Regional differentiation of the demographic potential in Italy and Poland

Pastuszka, Sławomir Article Regional differentiation of the demographic potential in Italy and Poland Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe Provided in Cooperation with: Institute of Economics, University of Łódź Suggested Citation: Pastuszka, Sławomir (2017) : Regional differentiation of the demographic potential in Italy and Poland, Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, ISSN 2082-6737, De Gruyter, Warsaw, Vol. 20, Iss. 3, pp. 137-159, https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2017-0024 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/184445 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 Comparative Economic Research, Volume 20, Number 3, 2017 10.1515/cer-2017-0024 SŁAWOMIR PASTUSZKA* Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential in Italy and Poland Abstract The aim of this paper is to compare the demographic potential of given Italian and Polish regions. The analysis shows that the demographic situation in Poland, unlike in Italy, is not directly related to the level of development of some regions and their geographical location. In Italy, the unfavorable demographic situation is typical of most of the less-developed southern regions, whereas in Poland it occurs in voivodships with different economic potential, situated in different parts of the country. This is probably the result of the current polycentric development of Poland, characteristic of a centralized economy, and the polar development in Italy. Certain demographic similarities, but of different levels, related to the dynamics of the population, the level of fertility, and net migration are observable in the macro-regions of Mezzogiorno and Eastern Poland. Keywords: demographic potential, Italian regions, Polish voivodships, regional development JEL: J10, J11, J13, J18 Sławomir Pastuszka * Ph.D., The Jan Kochanowski University in Kielce, Faculty of Law, Management and Administration, e-mail: [email protected] 138 Sławomir Pastuszka 1. Introduction Unfavourable demographic changes are a characteristic feature of Europe (European Commission 2011). As a result of the low birth rate in many European countries and regions their populations are declining. At the same time the average life expectancy is increasing, reducing the proportional participation of economically active persons and increasing the percentage of people in their post-working age (European Commission 2014). Unfavourable demographic changes have drawn the attention of the European Commission (2006), because they will have a negative impact on productivity, economic growth, and the public finances of the Member States. These changes are varied spatially. Their negative effects are present primarily in areas with a poorly developed economy, while the more developed regions, offering better conditions for life and work, can compensate for the loss of people through the natural influx of immigrants (Bruni 2008). In Western Europe, this pattern has been in place for decades, while in the Central European countries it has not actually occurred yet. This study is an attempt to evaluate these processes in relation to Italy and Poland, taking into account the situation of their regions. Therefore, the primary aim of the paper is to compare the demographic potential of given Italian and Polish regions and identify possible future trends. In both countries there are territorial differences in the levels of development and some clearly defined divisions – in Italy there are the richer northern and central parts and the poorer Mezzogiorno; while in Poland there are the more developed western and central parts and the weaker Eastern Poland region. The study includes 37 statistical regions at NUTS level 2, including 19 Italian regions and two autonomous provinces (Trento and Bolzano), and 16 Polish voivodships. The time scope of research covers the years 2004–2014. In order to ensure comparability of data, statistical values are taken from the Eurostat database. 2. General characteristics of the regions Italy is divided into 20 regions, including five with special status: the Aosta Valley, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Sardinia, Sicily and Trentino-Alto Adige.1 They have executive powers in the field of regional development set out in the national legislation 1 They are much more autonomous in terms of territory, resulting from the Island character of Sardinia and Sicily as well as ethnic and linguistic differences, e.g. the German minority in Trentino – Alto Adige, Valle d`Aosta; the French minority in Friuli-Venezia; and the Slovenian minority 139 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… (Sługocki 2005, p. 95; Misiuda-Rewera 2005, pp. 155–161). Italian regions, based on their geographical location and the level of economic development, are divided into three macro-regions: Northern Italy, Central Italy and the Mezzogiorno. Map 1. Italy’s territorial division into regions Source: own elaboration. Northern Italy includes eight regions: Piedmont, Valle d’Aosta, Liguria, Lombardy, Trentino-Alto Adige (including the autonomous provinces of Bolzano and Trento), Veneto, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Emilia Romagna. Their total area constitutes 39.8% of the area of the country, and is home to 45.9% of the country’s population. These regions, due to their higher level of urbanization, belong – with the exception of mountainous Valle d’Aosta and Trentino-Alto Adige – to the more densely populated areas (an average of 272 persons per 1 km 2 , compared to the national average of 197) (Istat 2013). They are characterized by low unemployment and high GDP per capita at both the national and EU levels, ranging in 2014 from 100% to 144% of the average figures for the EU-27. The northern part of Italy, in particular the triangle Milan-Turin-Genoa, belongs to the highly industrialized areas of Europe and is strongly linked to the global economy. The biggest industrial centers are located there, especially in Milan (1,337,000 inhabitants), Turin (897,000.), Genoa (593,000) and Bologna (386,000), (see: Scorcu 1997; European Commission 2001: VIII; European Commission 2004, p. 27). in Giulia, near Trieste and Gorizia. Their existence derives from Title V of Part II of the Constitution of the Italian Republic of 27.12.1947. 140 Sławomir Pastuszka Central Italy is divided into 4 regions: Lazio, Tuscany, Umbria and Marche. They occupy 19.2% of the total area of the country and are home to 19.6% of its population. These regions, with a GDP per capita of between 87% to 114% of the average EU-27, are slightly less developed than in the north of the country. They are distinguished by a well-developed settlement network of medium-sized cities, their spatial concentration of small and medium enterprises, and educated institutional structure actively supporting economic development. The largest towns in the central part of Italy are Rome (2,872,000 inhabitants) and Florence (381,000). Mezzogiorno covers six continental regions: Abruzzo, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Molise, and the islands of Sardinia and Sicily. The area is inhabited by 34.5% of the total population of Italy. The biggest cities are Naples (978,000 inhabitants), Palermo (679,000), Bari (327,000) and Catania (316,000). The Mezzogiorno is the largest region in terms of area (almost 41% of the country) and the poorest Italian macro-region (65% of the average GDP per capita of Italy). It is characterized by low population density (167 persons per 1 km2), an unfavorable structure of the economy with a high concentration of employment in agriculture, and high unemployment rates. These factors are determinative of the low standard of living of the inhabitants of the South of Italy and intensive economic emigration (Oltre il Pil 2013). Poland is administratively divided into 16 voivodships (NUTS 2 regions). Map 2. Poland’s territorial division into regions Source: own elaboration. 141 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… Due to the level of economic development, the regions of Eastern Poland, namely Lubelskie, Podkarpackie, Podlaskie, Świętokrzyskie and Warmia-Mazury, have been placed into a separate group. They cover a total of nearly one-third of the country’s area (31.6%), which is inhabited by 21.2% of the country’s population. The largest cities include: Lublin (340,000), Białystok (295,000), Kielce (198,000), Rzeszów (185,000) and Olsztyn (173,000). The average population density of this macro-region (82.4 people/km 2 ) is about 50% lower than the national average. The Polish Eastern voivodships are among the least economically developed regions in the country and in the European Union. Despite some positive changes, they are still characterized by low levels of GDP per capita, an unfavorable employment structure, the high economic importance of inefficient agriculture, a lack of innovation in their economies, and weak investment attractiveness (Ocena wpływu realizacji polityki spójności… 2010, p. 33, Wpływ funduszy europejskich… 2015, Ministerstwo Rozwoju 2016, pp. 8–15). There has also been an initiative to develop a separate development strategy for the Western part of Poland, encompassing the regions of Dolnośląskie, Lubuskie, Opolskie, Wielkopolskie, and Zachodniopomorskie. They cover 30.7% of the country and have a population of more than 26.28% of the total population of Poland (Strategia rozwoju Polski Zachodniej 2020, 2014).). This area is characterized by a lower than the national average population density (105.2 people/km2, compared to the national average of 123), but a slightly higher degree of urbanization. The macro-region comprises the highly industrialized areas of Lower Silesia (Dolny Śląsk) and Greater Poland (Wielkopolska). They are characterized by a favourable economic structure associated with specialized industries and a high degree of marketisation of agriculture. The largest cities in Western Poland are Wroclaw (635,000), Poznań (542,000) and Szczecin (405,000) (GUS, 2016). An important role in the region’s socio-economic development is also played by the capitals of the Lubuskie region: Zielona Góra and Gorzów Wielkopolski, as well as Opole in the Opolskie region. Taking into account the above-mentioned separate classification of eastern and western Poland, the remaining six voivodships are included in the present analysis in central Poland,2 comprised of the Pomorskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Łódzkie, Mazowieckie, Małopolskie, and Śląskie voivodships. This area constitutes 37.4% of the country (117,575 km2) and is inhabited by the population of 20.18 million people (52.6% of the Polish population). The average population density is high, especially in the regions of Śląsk and Malopolska (Strategia rozwoju Polski Południowej do roku 2020, 2014). The Polish central voivodships have higher than the national average share of employment in services (60.5%), and lower shares in agriculture, forestry, hunting and fisheries (13.4% vs. the 17.2% average in Poland). 2 Supra-regional development strategies were drawn up for four regions, including the Łódzkie and Mazowieckie regions within Central Poland and Małopolskie and Śląskie regions within Southern Poland (Strategia rozwoju Polski Centralnej do roku 2020 z perspektywą 2030, 2015). 142 Sławomir Pastuszka Table 1. Basic data related to Italian regions and Polish voivodships in 2014 Name of Italian regions/ provinces Population in thous. people PKB per capita Unemployment rate Name of Polish regions Population in thous. people PKB per capita Unemployment rate thous. euro UE= 100 thous. euro EU= 100 Italy 60 782.7 26.5 96 11.9 Poland 38005.6 18.8 68 7.5 Valle d’Aosta/ 128.2 36.5 133 8.9 Dolnośląskie 2868.3 20.8 76 7.0 Piemonte 4424.4 27.6 100 10.2 Kujawsko-Pomorskie 2065.8 15.1 55 7.9 Liguria 1583.2 28.7 104 9.2 Lubelskie 2126.3 15.6 47 9.3 Lombardia 9973.3 34.7 126 7.9 Lubuskie 1007.4 13.0 57 6.4 Provincia autonoma di Bolzano 518.5 39.7 144 3.8 Łódzkie 2498.8 17.4 63 7.7 Provincia autonoma di Trento 537.4 33.7 123 6.8 Małopolskie 3324.5 16.6 60 7.1 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 1227.2 27.8 101 8.0 Mazowieckie 5309.7 29.8 108 6.4 Veneto 4927.5 29.8 108 7.1 Opolskie 956.9 15.5 55 6.5 Emilia-Romagna 4450.5 32.2 117 7.7 Podkarpackie 2084.2 13.2 48 11.6 Toscana 3752.6 28.7 104 9.2 Podlaskie 1162.3 13.4 49 7.0 Umbria 894.7 24.0 87 10.4 Pomorskie 2271.5 17.7 64 6.6 Marche 1550.7 25.3 92 9.9 Śląskie 4535.7 19.3 70 7.2 Lazio 5892.4 31.4 114 11.8 Świętokrzyskie 1247.9 13.5 49 10.1 Abruzzo 1331.5 23.1 84 12.6 Warmińsko-mazurskie 1418.5 13.3 48 9.5 Molise 313.3 20.5 75 14.3 Wielkopolskie 3447.6 20.0 73 5.8 Campania 5861.5 16.7 61 19.8 Zachodnio Pomorskie 1688.4 15.6 57 7.5 Basilicata 576.6 19.0 69 13.7 Puglia 4090.1 17.2 63 19.7 Calabria 1976.6 16.1 59 22.9 Sicilia 5092.0 17.0 62 21.4 Sardegna 1663.2 19.9 72 17.4 Source: own elaboration based on Eurostat data. General and regional statistics: http://ec. europa.eu/ eurostat/data/database (access date: 27.04.2017). 143 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… The biggest, most developed, and most internally diverse region, both in the macro-region and in the whole country, is the region of Masovia (Mazowsze). The scale of the differences in GDP per capita between the capital city of Warsaw and the weakest sub-region NUTS 3 in Masovia is approximately 4:1. According to Gorzelak and Jałowiecki (2010, pp. 37–45), this large difference is the result of weakening ties between Warsaw and its regional base. Also of significance with respect to this trend is the level of investment expenditures in the sub-regional system observed for many decades. Apart from Warsaw, the most important urban centres include Kraków (population of 761,000), Łódź (700,000), Gdańsk (462,000), Gdynia (247,000), Bydgoszcz (355,000) and Katowice (299,000). 3. Factors determining the demographic situation At the core of demographic changes lie complex and mutually reinforcing causes of a cultural, economic, political and geographical nature. As early as in the mid-twentieth century families with four or more children, especially in rural areas and among working-class families, were a normal phenomenon in various European countries. At present, the norm is to have one child, more rarely two, and this occurs both in Italy and Poland. There is a common trend that the increase in education and standard of living of parents leads to the decrease in the number of children. Young people are increasingly inclined to first achieve a certain level of education and economic stabilization and then, usually after age 30, to have children. This phenomenon is referred to as “deferred” births (Rapporto annuale 2014). It is obvious that having children leads to higher alternative costs by limiting opportunities for professional development, lowering wages, and reducing leisure time. In the past, these factors had less influence on the decisions whether to have children. Migratory movements of the population, mainly from rural to urban areas or from smaller cities to large agglomerations, are one of the main economic factors in demographic processes. One can also observe the general mobility of the population, related to education, more work opportunities, efficient communication and ease in changing one’s place of residence. European integration and globalization processes are also conducive to international migration. Directions of migration are determined by the attractiveness of the areas of destination as places to work and live in. People move to the centres of modern industry and services sectors. This phenomenon is beneficial to both the centres (due to the possibility of obtaining a sufficient number of employees), as well as to migrants, because they can find a satisfying place of work. In this way, the demographic structure improves in the 144 Sławomir Pastuszka regions with greater development potential and depopulation occurs in the weaker regions. Flows in population reduce the statistical age of residents,3 increase the fertility rate, improve the economic structure of age, and reduce labour shortages, thus creating the basis for future economic development. On the other hand, in regions of out-migration there is an aging of society, resulting in a reduction of labour and lower birth rates, as well as a lower share of working-age population. The dependency ratio and the relationship between budget revenue and social spending deteriorate. The financial viability of pension systems becomes unstable and the costs of health care and social assistance increase. As a result of these factors, a further reduction in the dynamism of the economy takes place and a decline in income can be expected (Rapporto annual 2014; Chawla, Betcherman, Banerji 2007). The causes of migration are also related to political factors and threats to human security. This phenomenon is clearly visible in the migration of people from the countries of North Africa and Asia to Italy, and in the inflow to Poland of persons mostly affected by the crisis Ukraine (Brunarska 2014, pp. 155–174). 4. Regions of population growth and decline The changing population of a given territory, i.e. actual increases or decreases, is the result of the co-occurrence of two processes: the rate of natural increase (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and net migration (the difference between people who settled in a given place versus those who left it). The analysis of these processes in the years 2004–2014 shows that in Italy there was an increase in population of 3.9 million (5.7%), while in Poland there was a decrease loss of 184,900 (–0.5%). The demographic processes in these countries therefore were different. In Italy, the largest population growth was recorded in the northern and central parts (7.1% and 9.7%), several times higher than in the Mezzogiorno (1.8%). The largest increase in the number of inhabitants was recorded in the capital region Lazio, whose population increased by more than 723,000, i.e. by 14%. A relatively high (more than 9%) growth in population took place in the most developed North Italian regions of Bolzano and Trento, Emilia Romagna and Lombardy (Fig. 1). With the exception of Abruzzo, the worst demographic situation occurred in the Mez3 In 2013, median age in Italy was 44.4 years, an increase of more than three years in comparison to 2004. At the same time in Poland the median age reached the level of 39.1, and increase of 2.9 years from that in 2004. (Gernini, Boom di nuovi italiani: l’età media e sotto i 30 anni http:// www.unita.tv/focus/boom-di-nuovi-italiani-leta-media-e-sotto-i-30-anni/ (access date: 16.01.2017), Istat 2011b, Istat 2015a, p. 12, GUS, 2014a, p. 106, Sytuacja demograficzna Polski, Raport 2013– 2014, 2014, Warszawa, p. 44. 151 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… Name of Italian regions 2004 2014 Change 2004-2014, in points. percent. 123123123 Abruzzo 13.53 65.50 21.12 12.84 64.55 22.61 –0.69 –0.80 1.49 Molise 13.57 64.63 21.80 11.92 64.73 23.36 –1.65 0.10 1.56 Campania 17.77 67.23 15.00 15.48 66.96 17.56 –2.29 –0.26 2.56 Basilicata 14.80 65.53 19.67 12.69 65.60 21.62 –2.10 0.15 1.95 Puglia 16.02 66.98 17.00 14.04 65.47 20.49 –1.98 –1.51 3.49 Calabria 15.58 66.42 18.00 13.77 66.01 20.22 –1.81 –0.41 2.22 Sicilia 16.42 65.90 17.69 14.46 65.65 19.89 –1.96 –0.24 2.20 Sardegna 13.12 69.63 17.25 11.94 66.47 21.58 –1.18 –3.16 4.33 1 – pre-working age, 2 – working age, 3 – post-productive age Source: own elaboration based on Eurostat data. Population on 1 January by age group, sex and NUTS 2 region: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_r_pjan group&lang=en (access date: 27.04.2017). Unlike Italy, Poland observed a decline in the number of people aged under 15 years and 15–64 years, by 10.4% (–662,500 persons) and 1.3% respectively, while the elderly population increased by 16.7% (841,400). As a consequence of these changes the share of people in pre-working age in the entire population in the country decreased by 1.67% and people of working age by 0.60%, while the share of the population in retirement age increased by 2.27%. The largest change in the share of people in pre-production age (more than 2.66%) was observed in the regions of Podkarpackie, Podlaskie, Warmińsko-mazurskie and Świętokrzyskie; however, in 2014 the lowest share of people in this age group (less than 14%) was observed in the regions of Opolskie, Świętokrzyskie, Łódzkie, with a slightly higher share in Dolnośląskie and Śląskie. The share of the post-productive population grew the fastest in Śląskie and Opolskie, followed by Zachodnipomorskie, Lubuskie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie. The highest share of this age group (over 16%) was in the Łódzkie region, as well as in Świętokrzyskie, Opolskie, Śląskie, Podlaskie and Lubelskie (see Table 3 below). However, it is still significantly lower than in the Italian regions. The reported changes in the population structure will have a negative impact on the regions’ economic and social development because the decreasing participation of young and better-educated people reduces economic activity, territorial mobility and economic efficiency. The allocation of labour resources is hindered, innovation and technical progress are weakened, while the economic burden increases because of the increasing number of elderly people. Table 3. Population of Polish regions according to economic age groups in 2004 and 2014 (%) Name of Polish regions 2004 2014 Change 2004-2014, in points. percent. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Polska 16.71 70.15 13.15 15.04 69.55 15.42 –1.67 –0.60 2.27 Dolnośląskie 15.27 71.39 13.34 14.06 70.23 15.71 –1.21 –1.17 2.37 Kujawsko-pomorskie 17.39 70.41 12.20 15.17 70.00 14.84 –2.22 –0.41 2.63 152 Sławomir Pastuszka Name of Polish regions 2004 2014 Change 2004-2014, in points. percent. 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Lubelskie 17.49 68.34 14.16 14.83 69.16 16.01 –2.66 0.82 1.85 Lubuskie 17.05 71.39 11.56 15.21 70.56 14.23 –1.84 –0.83 2.67 Łódzkie 15.28 69.90 14.82 13.99 68.84 17.17 –1.29 –1.06 2.36 Małopolskie 17.85 68.95 13.21 15.84 69.13 15.03 –2.01 0.19 1.82 Mazowieckie 16.04 69.48 14.47 15.64 68.50 15.86 –0.40 –0.98 1.39 Opolskie 15.70 70.99 13.30 13.59 70.05 16.36 –2.11 –0.94 3.05 Podkarpackie 18.76 68.51 12.73 15.45 69.84 14.71 –3.31 1.33 1.98 Podlaskie 17.49 68.18 14.33 14.57 69.41 16.02 –2.92 1.23 1.68 Pomorskie 17.73 70.52 11.75 16.35 69.40 14.24 –1.38 –1.12 2.50 Śląskie 15.16 71.96 12.87 14.08 69.74 16.18 –1.08 –2.22 3.31 Świętokrzyskie 16.65 68.61 14.74 13.93 69.31 16.76 –2.72 0.69 2.03 Warmińsko-mazurskie 18.29 70.30 11.41 15.53 70.82 13.65 –2.76 0.52 2.23 Wielkopolskie 17.54 70.64 11.82 16.05 69.76 14.18 –1.48 –0.88 2.36 Zachodniopomorskie 16.63 71.44 11.93 14.51 70.63 14.86 –2.12 –0.81 2.93 1 – pre-working age, 2 – working age, 3 – post-productive age Source: own elaboration based on Eurostat data. Population on 1 January by age group, sex and NUTS 2 region: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_r_pjan group&lang=en (access date: 27.04.2017) 8. The oldest and the youngest regions The demographic aging index is used to measure the adverse changes in the age structure of the population and the increasing number and proportion of the elderly population.9 This index describes the relationship between the proportion of people aged 65 and over and children and adolescents under the age of 14. Index values above 100 indicate a higher proportion of the elderly in comparison to children and young people. The comparison of the values of the demographic aging index in 2014 and 2004 shows the changes which took place in the Italian and Polish regions in terms of population aging. In Italy, for each 100 people at pre-working age at the end of 2014 there were 157.7 people in the retirement age, while in 2004 the number was 138.1. In all regions there were more persons aged 65 and older than children and adolescents under 15 years. The worst demographic structure (for each 100 people under the age 15 there were more than 190 people aged at least 65) could be observed in Liguria, Friuli-Venezia Gi9 According to the UN (2005), an ‘old population’ refers to a population in which people aged 65 and more constitute more than 7%. 153 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… ulia, Molise, and Tuscany. The high proportion of older people compared to the young is also characteristic of Piedmont, Umbria and Sardinia. The least advanced aging, based on the aging indicator, was in Campania, Trentino Alto Adige and Sicily. In Poland, the situation in this respect is much more favourable. The demographic aging index in 2014 was 102.5 persons on average. It should be noted, however, that the pace of change in Poland is twice as fast as in Italy (Table 4). The highest aging index (over 120 persons) was recorded in the Łódzkie, Świętokrzyskie and Opolskie voivodships, as well as in Silesia, Lower Silesia and Podlaskie (over 110). Currently, the demographic situation of Polish regions is comparable to the “youngest” Italian regions. However, the high growth rate of people over the age of 65, according to the data provided by the Central Statistical Office (2014, pp. 112–113), indicates that the rate of aging in Poland and the voivodships will reach a state similar to that in Italy in the foreseeable future. The most favourable demographic situation in this regard is observed in the Pomorskie, Warmińsko-mazurskie and Wielkopolskie regions. The aging of the population has numerous consequences for the labour market (Ciura, Szymańczyk 2012). Firstly, fewer people of working age simply mean less “manpower”. Secondly, employees will be older, which means that often they will not be able to perform work requiring a high degree of physical fitness. Thirdly, there will be changes in the need for certain professions. The so-called “white” jobs, directly related to the provision of nursing and physiotherapy services, will become more popular. There will be less demand for professions related to the care and upbringing of children and education. Table 4. The ratio of people of retirement age per 100 people of pre-productive age in Italian and Polish regions in 2004 and 2014 Name of Italian regions 2004 2014 Change 2004–2014 % Name of Polish regions 2004 2014 Change 2004–2014 % Italy 138.1 157.7 14.1 Poland 78.7 102.5 30.3 Valle d’Aosta 151.1 161.7 7.0 Dolnośląskie 87.3 111.7 27.9 Piemonte 180.4 189.6 5.1 Kujawsko-pomorskie 70.2 97.8 39.4 Liguria 241.2 242.7 0.6 Lubelskie 81.0 107.9 33.3 Lombardia 142.1 152.6 7.4 Lubuskie 67.8 93.6 38.0 Provincia autonoma di Bolzano/Bozen 96.2 117.9 22.6 Łódzkie 96.9 122.8 26.6 Provincia autonoma di Trento 121.1 138.0 13.9 Małopolskie 74.0 94.9 28.2 Friuli-Venezia Giulia 186.8 199.8 7.0 Mazowieckie 90.2 101.4 12.4 Veneto 137.5 154.8 12.6 Opolskie 84.7 120.3 42.0 154 Sławomir Pastuszka Name of Italian regions 2004 2014 Change 2004–2014 % Name of Polish regions 2004 2014 Change 2004–2014 % Emilia-Romagna 185.4 173.6 –6.3 Podkarpackie 67.8 95.2 40.3 Toscana 192.2 192.9 0.4 Podlaskie 82.0 110.0 34.1 Umbria 188.5 189.3 0.4 Pomorskie 66.3 87.1 31.5 Marche 172.0 179.7 4.5 Śląskie 84.9 114.9 35.3 Lazio 137.0 149.8 9.4 Świętokrzyskie 88.5 120.4 36.0 Abruzzo 156.1 176.1 12.8 Warmińsko-mazurskie 62.4 87.9 40.8 Molise 160.7 196.0 22.0 Wielkopolskie 67.4 88.3 31.1 Campania 84.4 113.4 34.4 Zachodniopomorskie 71.7 102.4 42.7 Basilicata 132.9 170.3 28.1 Puglia 106.1 145.9 37.5 Calabria 115.5 146.9 27.2 Sicilia 107.7 137.6 27.7 Sardegna 131.5 180.7 37.5 Source: own elaboration based on Eurostat data. Population on 1 January by age group, sex and NUTS 2 http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo_r_pjangroup& lang=en (access date: 27.04.2017) 9. Conclusions The analysis facilitated evaluation of the demographic potential of Italian and Polish regions, as well as identification of trends related to this potential. They can be described as follows: 1. In Italy, at the end of 2014 a generally favourable demographic situation could be observed in the northern regions, with a high degree of concentration of the population, modern industry and business services. The most favourable situation occurred in the most economically developed region of Trentino Alto Adige, and in highly urbanized Lombardy and Lazio. In these regions, immigration compensates to the greatest extent for the negative or low birth rate. It lowers the average age of residents and improves the economic structure of the population. Liguria – the “oldest” region of Italy demographically – is an exception among the northern regions of Italy. The worst demographic situation occurs in the Mezzogiorno regions, especially in the least urbanized ones, characterized by the lowest level of development, namely Basilicata, Calabria and Molise. A small positive net migration rate cannot compensate for the declining population due to the negative natural growth. An unfavourable situation can also be observed in Sardinia, due to one of the highest rates of demographic burden. 155 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… The long term outflows of population from these regions is both the result and the cause of their lower level of development. This has been the case throughout the entire Mezzogiorno macro-region since the reunification of the country, and thus it remains an area of labour reserves for northern and central Italy. 2. In Poland, the best demographic situation can be observed in those regions with the highest population growth and positive net migration: Pomorskie, Małopolskie and Wielkopolskie, as well as in Mazowieckie with its highest net migration and positive population growth rate. The capitals of these regions quickly joined the network of European cities and developed modern services offering attractive jobs and career prospects for young and more educated people. The worst demographic situation can be observed in the Opolskie, Świętokrzyskie and Łódzkie regions, where the lowest birth rates in the country are accompanied by high negative net migration. However, the biggest outflow of population in absolute numbers could be observed in the Śląskie and Łódzkie regions. These regions are therefore not attractive enough for those seeking better working and living conditions, because they are still dominated by their traditional, declining industries (e.g. mining, metallurgy, light industry) (Runge 2010, pp. 33–82). In the least economically developed regions of Eastern Poland the demographic situation is varied (Celińska-Janowicz, Miszczuk, Płoszaj, Smętkowski 2020). Particularly unfavourable demographic changes took place in Świętokrzyskie, Lubelskie and Podlaskie. This is evidenced by negative natural growth rate and high negative net migration rate. In contrast, the Warmia-Mazury and Podkarpackie regions are characterized by high population growth and a favourable dependency ratio. At the same time there are areas of high emigration, and in Podkarpackie the highest rate of the decrease in the pre-working age group was recorded. 3. A low level of economic development is accompanied by unfavourable demographic processes more often in the Italian regions than in the Polish voivodships. In Italy, this situation is typical of most of the less developed regions of the Mezzogiorno macro-region. In Poland, the worst demographic situation can be found in the Opolskie, Świętokrzyskie and Łódzkie regions, i.e. in regions situated in different parts of the country. An unfavourable trend is observed also in the relatively well-developed Silesia. Thus, the demographic situation in Poland, unlike in Italy, is not directly related to the level of development of regions and their geographical location. This is probably the result of the polycentric development of Poland and polar development in Italy. A certain similarity of demographic changes, albeit of different levels of advancement, connected with the number of persons, the level of fertility, and net migration occurs in the macro-regions of the Mezzogiorno and Eastern Poland. Perhaps Mezzogiorno is presently experiencing a demographic situation which Eastern Poland may experience in the future, if the policy-making authorities consider the introduction of polar development. 156 Sławomir Pastuszka References Basile R., Causi M. (2007), Le determinanti dei flussi migratori nelle province italiane: 1991–2001, ʻEconomia & Lavoroʼ, n. 2. Becker S.O., Ichino A., Peri G. (2004), How large is the ‘brain-drain’ from Italy, ʻGiornale dei Economisti e Annuali di Economiaʼ, no. 63(1). Brunarska Z. (2014), Ukraińscy migranci zarobkowi w Polsce – dlaczego tak trudno ich policzyć, ʻStudia BASʼ, nr 4(40). Bruni M. (2008), Il boom demografico prossimo venturo. 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Il trasferimento di forza lavoro giovane e dal Sud al Nord, ʻIl Mulinoʼ, n. 4. World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005), ONZ, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York. Wpływ funduszy europejskich perspektywy finansowej 2007–2013 na rozwój społeczno-gospodarczy Polski Wschodniej, 2015, MAPP sp. z o.o, PC++, Warszawa. Woźniak Z. (1999), Problemy starzenia się i starości wyzwaniem dla polityki społecznej na progu III tysiąclecia, ʻRuch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologicznyʼ, z. 1. Streszczenie REGIONALNE ZRÓŻNICOWANIE POTENCJAŁU DEMOGRAFICZNEGO WE WŁOSZECH I W POLSCE Celem artykułu jest porównanie potencjału demograficznego włoskich i polskich regionów oraz wskazanie tendencji zmian jakim ten potencjał podlega. Analiza wykazała, że niskiemu poziomowi rozwoju gospodarczego częściej towarzyszą niekorzystne procesy demograficzne w regionach włoskich niż polskich. We Włoszech taka sytuacja jest charakterystyczna dla większości słabiej rozwiniętych regionów Me- 159 Regional Differentiation of The Demographic Potential… zzogiorno, w Polsce zaś nie ma bezpośredniego związku z poziomem rozwoju regionów i ich usytuowaniem geograficznym. Prawdopodobnie jest to rezultat policentrycznego, dotychczasowego rozwoju Polski i biegunowego rozwoju Włoch. Pewne podobieństwo, jednak o różnym poziomie zaawansowania, występuje w sytuacji gospodarczej i demogra - ficznej ogółu regionów Mezzogiorno i województw wschodniej Polski. Być może regiony Mezzogiorno znajdują się w takiej sytuacji, w jakiej województwa Polski Wschodniej mogą znaleźć się w przyszłości, jeżeli władze kreujące politykę uznają rozwój biegunowy za uzasadniony. Słowa kluczowe: potencjał demograficzny, regiony włoskie, polskie województwa, rozwój regionalny