Emociones y liderazgos políticos en las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía de 2022 en X

Print ISSN: 390-3837 / electronic ISSN: 1390-8634, UPS-Ecuador, No. 41, September 2024-February 2025, pp. 199-218. https://doi.org/10.17163/uni.n41.2024.08 Emotions and political leadership in the 2022 Andalusian Parliament elections in X Emociones y liderazgos políticos en las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía de 2022 en X Jorge Zarauza-Castro Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Spain [email protected] https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6319-7080 Sandra Méndez-Muros Universidad de Sevilla, Spain sanmenm[email protected] https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4312-9798 Received on:11/03/2024 Revised on: 11/05/2024 Accepted on: 26/07/2024 Published on: 01/09/2024 Suggested citation: Zarauza-Castro, J. and Méndez-Muros, S. (2024). Emotions and political leadership in the 2022 Andalusian Parliament elections in X. Universitas XX1, 41, pp. 199-218. https://doi.org/10.17163/uni.n41.2024.08 Abstract Social networks have become in recent years as essential elements to building political discourses, especially in electoral periods. Political parties develop specific strategies to communicating with their constituents through these platforms, based on leadership and the use of emotions. This research aims to analyze the communication strategies deployed by political leaders on X during the Andalusian Parliament election campaign in 2022, and for this purpose, a quantitative and qualitative content analysis methodology is applied to a sample of 690 tweets in the personal accounts of the candidates of the six parties with parliamentary representation. An advance of the results points to a communicative planning previously designed, that builds a discourse based on thematic lines, strategies, approaches and, especially, feelings according to the ideological, programmatic, and mobilizing axis established by each political formation. Keywords Political communication, elections, leadership, emotions, campaigns, Andalusia, X. 200 Universitas-XX1, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana del Ecuador, No. 41, September 2024-February 2025 Resumen Las redes sociales se han convertido en los últimos años en elementos esenciales a la hora de construir los discursos políticos, especialmente en periodos electorales. Los partidos políticos desarrollan estrategias específicas para comunicarse con sus electores a través de estas plataformas, basadas en el liderazgo y el uso de las emociones. Esta investigación tiene como objetivo analizar las estrategias comunicativas desplegadas por los líderes políticos en X durante la campaña de las elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía en 2022 y para ello se aplica una metodología de análisis de contenido cuantitativo y cualitativo sobre una muestra de 690 tuits en las cuentas personales de los candidatos de los seis partidos con representación parlamentaria. Un avance de los resultados apunta a una planificación comunicativa previamente diseñada, que construye un discurso basado en líneas temáticas, estrategias, enfoques y, especialmente, sentimientos según el eje ideológico, programático y movilizador establecido por cada formación. Palabras clave Comunicación política, elecciones, liderazgo, emociones, campañas, Andalucía, X. Introduction After the rejection of the 2022 budgets and arguing the instability of the parliamentary minority as a result of a distancing with Vox, on April 25, President Juan Manuel Moreno dissolves the Andalusian Parliament and calls regional elections for June 19. It advanced in five months the scheduled date, ending a legislature marked by the arrival, for the first time in Andalusian history, of the Popular Party (PP) to the Presidency of the Junta in 2018. In this way, despite the victory of the PSOE, the conservatives manage to govern this region, thanks to a government pact with the centrists of Ciudadanos and another programmatic one with Vox. A period of change begins in an Andalusia, governed by conservative parties and supported by extreme right-wing populism (Golder, 2016; Pérez-Curiel, 2020) The campaign under study begins in the context of a legislature determined by the introduction of changes in the Andalusian institutions, the management of the COVID-19 pandemic (López-Pavón, 2021) or polarization with the Government of Spain. The confrontation responds, among other re- 201 Jorge Zarauza-Castro and Sandra Méndez-Muros. Emotions and political leadership in the 2022 asons, to the results of the demoscopic surveys (Centro de Estudios Andaluces, 2022; Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, 2022) that point to the victory of the Popular Party, the stagnation of the PSOE and a progressive recovery of the big parties, in a scenario of fragmentation and parliamentary polarization (Nieto-Jiménez, 2022). The imminent disappearance of Ciudadanos, until then a minority political party in the Andalusian government, and internal conflicts between the parties of the alternative left describe a scenario with significant division levels in the elections. In a political landscape marked by polarization, what is unknown is the sum of the political parties of left and right, as well as the reaction of the citizenry to the far-right Vox party (Ferreira, 2019) and its possible entry into the regional Executive. Therefore, the communication strategies of leaders and parties are fundamental to influence the citizen vote (García et al., 2013). Despite studies that question the impact of debates (Lagares et al., 2020), the media (Ramírez- Dueñas and Vinuesa-Tejero, 2020) or the campaigns themselves (Barreiro et al., 2015), the electorate can determine the composition of the new government. In addition, in a society marked by immediacy, the importance of the audiovisual and the use of emotions (Bjerg, 2019), social networks are key element of political communication (Rúas and Casero-Ripollés, 2018) and, especially of electoral processes. This research starts from the hypothesis that political leaders during the 2022 electoral campaign in Andalusia build a story on X (former Twitter) marked by a multiple combination of strategies among which stand out the use of emotions to influence citizenship. Based on a content analysis of the messages published on this social network by the six candidates of the political parties with parliamentary representation, it is intended to delve into the construction process of the electoral narrative. Strategies, Leadership, and Emotions in Online Election Campaigns The Internet and new social platforms have revolutionized the way society communicates, changing countless facets of people’s lives. In this sense, political communication cannot be understood today without considering the role played by social networks (Stieglitz and Dang-Xuan, 2013). The development of these new communication platforms has favored the emergence of 202 Universitas-XX1, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana del Ecuador, No. 41, September 2024-February 2025 a new space for dialog between politicians, media and citizens (Jaráiz et al., 2020a). It has led to a series of profound changes in the planning of electoral campaigns (Karlsen and Enjolras, 2016) and, especially, the development by parties of strategies specifically designed for social platforms (Enli, 2017). Although, from the theoretical point of view, social networks expand the possibilities of political participation of citizens (Murthy, 2018), there are also authors who question it by reducing the role of influence of these new platforms to a new loudspeaker of information created by traditional actors (Castells, 2011) and in many cases used by governments and political parties to generate accessions to particular causes (De la Garza, 2020). In this line, political parties show low interactivity levels (Zugasti and Pérez, 2015) and tend to use social networks as propaganda mechanisms of self-promotion through the viralization of proposals and messages, especially during electoral campaigns (Pérez-Curiel and García-Gordillo, 2020). Another consequence of the impact of social networks on electoral political communication is the loss of the role of the media as mediators (Díez-Gracia et al., 2023) and the increase of the potential of political leaders as agenda setters or “news makers” (Aruguete, 2017). Through techniques closer to marketing, candidates become authentic political influencers (Pérez-Curiel and Limón- Naharro, 2019), working their personal brand through social networks (Verón and Pallarés, 2018), emptying them of ideological content and turning politics into a confrontation between celebrities who hold power (Quevedo-Redondo and Portalés-Oliva, 2017). All these trends contribute to a political and social debate marked by disinformation (Pérez-Curiel et al., 2022). The latter leads to the construction of a unidirectional (Amado and Tarullo, 2015) and self-referential discourse on social networks (García-Orte- ga and Zugasti, 2018) marked by the reinforcement of the personality of the political leader (McGregor et al., 2017). Despite the progressive increase in the weight of other social networks, such as Instagram or TikTok, typical of a younger audience (Martínez-Estrella et al., 2023), X is running as the social network with the greatest potential for politics (Campos-Domínguez, 2017). Thanks to their polarizing tendency and their ability to generate echo chambers (Cossard et al., 2020), political parties rely on networks of followers that end up becoming authentic fan communities (Lee and Moon, 2021). This phenomenon is based on recent scientific research that argues how the ability to mobilize through emotions is increasingly being considered in the planning of the communication strategies of political parties (Calderón- 203 Jorge Zarauza-Castro and Sandra Méndez-Muros. Emotions and political leadership in the 2022 Monge, 2017), a discursive complement of influence on the electorate (Grüning and Schubert, 2022). As a result, and despite the fact that academic studies on political communication have traditionally tended to focus on the rational component (Montecinos, 2007), in recent decades the interest of the Academy in the role played by affections and emotions in the electoral behavior of citizens has been increasing. From this perspective, the parties seek to form a constructed mood among digital audiences, which is intensifying throughout the electoral campaign (Jaráiz-Gulías et al., 2020b). Although there is a view that political communication on social networks is dominated by negative content, especially during electoral campaigns (Tucker et al., 2018), there is no clear academic consensus on whether communication strategies with a negative emotional burden are more successful (Moret-Soler et al., 2022) or whether it is positive emotional content that reaches a greater potential for viralization on the network (Ferrara and Yang, 2015; Dominguez-García et al., 2023). In a polarizing context, in which traditional media, and especially television, promote confrontation through the implemented representation of political feelings (Cazorla et al., 2022), social networks become authentic public emotional spaces (Serrano-Puche, 2016), where users automatically tend to join currents of opinion and make judgments very quickly (Torres- Nabel, 2016). Therefore, it is advisable to delve into the strategic communication planning deployed by political leaders on social networks. Taking as a starting point the Andalusian Parliament elections of 2022, the following research questions arise: PI1. What are the main themes and strategies deployed by the Andalusian candidates in X during the electoral process? PI2. What role do feelings and emotions play in the discourse of these regional leaders? PI3. How does the digital audience respond to the impact of messages posted by political leaders on X? Methodology A quantitative-qualitative (Krippendorff, 2019; Silverman, 2016) and discursive (Flowerdew and Richardson, 2017; Van-Dijk, 2015) content analy- 204 Universitas-XX1, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana del Ecuador, No. 41, September 2024-February 2025 sis methodology is applied, based on the issue frame theory (Aalberg et al., 2017). The social network X is chosen for this research, due to the power and impact as a tool of political communication during the electoral processes (Campos-Domínguez, 2017). With the aim of delving into the stories constructed by the candidates for the regional elections of Andalusia in 2022, all the messages that the leaders of the political parties with parliamentary representation publish in their personal accounts (see table 1) from the beginning of the electoral campaign (June 3, 2022) until its closure (June 17, 2022) are collected. Table 1 Andalusian political candidates studied Candidate Account in X Juan Manuel Moreno (Partido Popular) @JuanMa_Moreno Juan Espadas (PSOE) @_juanespadas Juan Marín (Citizens) @JuanMarin_ Macarena Olona (Vox) @Macarena_Olona Inmaculada Nieto (For Andalusia) @InmaNietoC Teresa Rodríguez (Adelante Andalucía) @TeresaRodr_ To prepare the corpus, the information is downloaded through the Twittonoma program, and all the tweets published by the six leaders during the period studied. Subsequently, a screening is performed to rule out retweets or messages that cannot be analyzed by containing links or quotes to tweets that are no longer available. The sample universe is composed of 690 tweets that leaders post over a 15-day time frame. To carry out this study, a coding manual composed of nine variables is designed and structured in three large blocks: issue frame/game frame (themes and strategies), discursiveness (feelings and tone) and message dissemination (virality). Each of these methodological strategies answers one of the research questions. The data obtained are finally processed for statistical exploitation using the IBM SPSS Statistics program (Version 25). 205 Jorge Zarauza-Castro and Sandra Méndez-Muros. Emotions and political leadership in the 2022 Table 2 Correspondence between research questions and methods Research Questions (PI) Indicators PI1. What are the main themes and strategies deployed by the Andalusian candidates in X during the electoral process? Issue frame (themes) / Game frame (strategies) PI2. What role do feelings and emotions play in the discourse of these regional leaders? Discursiveness (tone and emotions) PI3. How does the digital audience respond to the impact of messages posted by political leaders on X? Virality (retweets, likes and answers) For studying the thematic agenda and discursive strategies, the general sample (n=690) is subjected to a random previous selection from 50 tweets to determine the main categories. When it comes to delving into the narratives deployed by the leaders, it is committed to studying the bias of the tweets (Yeste and Franch, 2018) from three levels (positive, neutral and negative), which allow to check the attitude of the candidates. Following previous methodological models (López-López et al., 2020; Moret-Soler et al., 2022), it also delves into the emotions displayed by the leaders, as well as the geographical approach from which they build their discourse (national, Andalusian, provincial, local or general). To evaluate the response of the citizenry, a viralization calculation formula (Pérez-Curiel et al., 2022) is used that takes into account retweets, likes and answers ((SUM retweets*2 + SUM likes + SUM answers) / SUM tweets published). Analysis of results Approach to sample When determining the general characteristics of the tweets published by the six Andalusian candidates in the 2022 elections, it should be noted that the sample consists of 690 messages. In this sense, there is an average production per candidate of 115 tweets throughout the campaign and 7.6 mes - sages per day. Candidates make moderate use of X to communicate with the citizenry, without reaching significant levels of emphasis. 206 Universitas-XX1, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana del Ecuador, No. 41, September 2024-February 2025 If the data are disaggregated by each leader (figure 1), the results point to greater use by the leaders of alternative left parties, Teresa Rodríguez (24.8%) and Inmaculada Nieto (22%), as well as President Juanma Moreno (18.7%). While the socialist candidate, Juan Espadas (14.9%), and Ciudadanos, Juan Marín (11.6%), respond to average production, the low publication rate of the Vox candidate, Macarena Olona (8%), is striking. Figure 1 Publication frequency per candidate 14,9 % 18,7 % 11,6 % 8,0 % 22,0 % 24,8 % Juan Espadas Juanma Moreno Juan Marín Macarena Olona Inmaculada Nieto Teresa Rodríguez Deepening on the characteristics of the speech of the Andalusian candidates in X, it is worth highlighting the use they make of the audiovisual potential of the network, with a clear majority of messages supported by videos (43.8%) and photographs (39.1%), pointing to a communication strategy planned by their teams and not to spontaneous or improvised personal communication. Taking into account the figures achieved by each political leader, there is a greater tendency to incorporate edited videos in the case of Juanma Moreno (64.3%), Juan Espadas (51.5%), Juan Marín (51.2%) and Inmaculada Nieto (47.4%). The only candidates to break this trend are Teresa Rodríguez, who relies more on images (39.2%) and who has a considerable number of publications without an audiovisual element (16.4%), as well as Macarena Olona, who uses photographs to a large extent (63.3%). Another interesting aspect of the sample is the frequency of publication of the candidates throughout the campaign. In this regard, the data indicate lower production in the days leading up to the televised debates on 6 and 13 June. An issue that may be related to the narrowing of the agenda of the 207 Jorge Zarauza-Castro and Sandra Méndez-Muros. Emotions and political leadership in the 2022 leaders for the preparation of the debate. On the contrary, higher figures are observed (Figure 2) in the days after these meetings, especially the first one, as well as during the last days of the campaign. As for the candidates, it is striking that the leader of Vox significantly decreases the number of messages on X during the second half of the campaign, going so far as not to publish any tweets in four days. Figure 2 Number of publications per candidate per day 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 03.06.2022 04.06.2022 05.06.2022 06.06.2022 07.06.2022 08.06.2022 09.06.2022 10.06.2022 11.06.2022 12.06.2022 13.06.2022 14.06.2022 15.06.2022 16.06.2022 17.06.2022 Juan Espadas Juanma Moreno Juan Marín Macarena Olona Inmaculada Nieto Teresa Rodríguez Theme and strategy of the Andalusian candidates The study of the thematic agenda of Andalusian political leaders points to a remarkable thematic diversity (see figure 3). In this way, data show a greater interest in economic and employment issues (20.7%), equality and social rights (15.1%), culture (9.4%) or the environment (6.5%). On the contrary, the low impact of basic Andalusian government competences, such as health (5.4%) or education (2.6%), is significant. However, the most remarkable result of this research is the high production of other types of messages (37.8%), which do not address a political or management issue, and which are more related to the very routine of the electoral campaign. 214 Universitas-XX1, Revista de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas de la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana del Ecuador, No. 41, September 2024-February 2025 study the communication of Andalusian candidates on other platforms, such as Facebook, Instagram or TikTok. In this line, for future research it would also be useful to delve into the responses of X users to confirm these trends of positioning of digital audiences in electoral periods. 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