International trade between Spain-Morocco-Portugal: are there any opportunities for optical products?

AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  International trade between Spain-Morocco- Portugal: Are there any opportunities for optical products? Margarita Barrera University of Seville, Spain AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Abstract This paper deals with the international trade interrelations between Spain and its closest neighbours to the South and West: Portugal and Morocco. It analyses the importance of optical products in the trade balance with those countries. To do so, a Social Accounting Matrix for Spain is used as a benchmark economic model, where the optical sector has been disaggregated and international coefficients are considered in order to include the effect of Portugal and Morocco in the Spanish economic system. Results show that, although Portugal plays a considerably important role, there are still growth opportunities toward the relations with Morocco. Resumen Este trabajo trata sobre las relaciones internacionales entre España y sus vecinos más cercanos al sur y oeste: Portugal y Marruecos, analizando la importancia de los productos ópticos en la balanza con dichos países. Para ello, se hace uso de la Matriz de Contabilidad Social para España como modelo económico de referencia, donde el sector óptico aparece desagregado, además se consideran coeficientes internacionales con la finalidad de incluir el efecto de Portugal y Marruecos en el sistema económico español. Los resultados muestran que, a pesar de que Portugal ocupa una posición considerablemente importante, aún existen amplias oportunidades de crecimiento en las relaciones hacia Marruecos. Key Words: International trade, optical products, input-output analysis, matrices de contabilidad social. JEL codes: C67; F59; L6; P45 AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  1. Introduction The justification of this paper comes from the advantage of the Spanish geographical location with respect to Morocco and the increasing demand for visual corrective aids at the global level. There are existing intensive trade relations between Spain and Morocco, in fact, Spain and France are Morocco’s main trade partners, representing more than 40% of total exports. However, the share of Spain and France in Morocco’s imports reach only 26% of the total (MAEC, 2015). Therefore, Spanish trade balance with its neighbour to the south is negative. Traditionally, relations with the African continent were affected by high tariffs (Cohí, 2003), however an expansion in the international trade was expected for the reduction in tariffs agreed between European Union and Morocco1 (CE, 2000), replacing the previous Association Agreement EU-Morocco from 1996 and recently revised in Negotiations for a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) in the views of including a wider range of trade aspects, such as industrial standards and technical regulations. Existing literature pays attention to effects of a unique market between EU and Morocco in the work of Blanes and Milgram (2010), in relation with the decrease in the tariffs on European products in Morocco. Other authors focus their interest in specific sectors such as agriculture, more specifically the tomato sector, analysing substitution effects between Spain and Morocco or The Netherlands (de Pablo, Pérez, & Lévy, 2008), fishing (Lagares & Ordaz, 2008), as one of the most important factors in the trade relations between Spain and Morocco, and clothing (Tokatli, 2008) analysing the case Zara and the localization of industry. Large literature is found in the field of migration between Spain and Morocco (Baldwin-Edwards, 2006; Hermanu, 2006; Carling, 2007; de Haas, 2007; Ferrer, 2008) and related with the foreign policy from the Moroccan perspective (Fernandez-Molina, 2016). However, to our knowledge, little attention has been paid to economic analysis from the academic point of view in the last years, since Jordan (1997) analysed the existing economic interrelations, Moré (2004) studied differences in GDP per capita and demonstrates and increasing differential between Spain and Morocco, and Blances and Milgram (2010) evaluated regional and sectoral implications in the frame of a gravity equation. The novelty of this research relies: (1) in the extension of the economic analysis and the opportunities to enhance economic relations with near neighbours, as the case of Morocco, and (2) in the sectoral analysis that escapes from the traditionally analysed sectors, such as tourism or agriculture, where the comparative advantage with neighbouring economies it is not clear.  1 Morocco tariffs by sectors can be found in Blanes and Milgram (2010). AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  In contrast with previous studies, this present work deals with the quantification of the economic impact of a marginal change in the exports from Morocco and Portugal by sectors in Spain using input-output techniques, that enables to consider indirect effects within the impact, and in the frame of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Thus we consider final demand accounts endogenous in the model and the circular flow of income is included in the total economic impact. Furthermore, the core of our analysis is on optical products, facing and increasing demand at the global level for uncovered visual needs mainly in developing countries (Pascolini & Mariotti, 2012; WHO, 2013), so that opportunities for Spain can be considered in this field. The comparison with the effects of Portugal is considered as an indicator of the potential proximity benefits. The remaining of this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 explains the methodology used for the analysis; Section 3 provides data on trade for Spain, Morocco and Portugal and results on the economic impact of optical products from an international trade perspective and Section 4 presents the final conclusions. 2. Data and methodology Data on international trade between Spain, Morocco and Portugal have been obtained from the following databases: Estacom (ICEX, 2015) and Comtrade (UN, 2015). An in depth analysis of main trade flows for the three countries considered is developed for the whole economy, with a special attention to optical products, including: corrective lenses and glasses. In order to establish the relevance of foreign sector in the Spanish economy the SAMESP-08 (Fuentes & Mainar, 2014) is used, taking into account input-output analysis techniques to determine economic impact multipliers. An input-output model is constructed following the equation: , where x is the economic output, represents the technology matrix indicating the structure of the economy and stands for the exogenous account considered. In our case we set the foreign sector as exogenous in the model. In order to disentangle backward and forward effects both: Leontief and Ghosh models are used in order to ascertain the effect of: (1) a unitary variation of the exogenous account in the rest of the economy due to each sector, that is the backward effect; and (2) the effect of a unitary variation in the total economic system over a specific sector, that is the forward effect; we will focus on the former. With the previously explained concept of backward and forward multipliers applied to the Spanish economy, foreign sector is considered exogenous and the value of exports to Morocco and Portugal is weighted. Thus the importance of the international trade for the AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Spanish economy is assessed. Resulting value will be considered as an indicator of the transborder trade relations. Multipliers matrix is obtained as follows: , and represent the demand multipliers, a more extended explanation of the construction of the multiplier matrix can be found in Blancas (2003), Sancho & Cardenete (2014) and Cardenete et al. (2014; 2015). Thus, provides the backward effect by sectors. Therefore, the share of that vector over the exports vector gives an approximation of the backward effect that Portugal and Morocco cause in the Spanish economy. This way, we obtain the “importance index” of Portuguese and Moroccan economies in the Spanish economy, denote by: Where is the export vector, r is the index that indicates the region, with r equals to Portugal or Morocco, and is the column vector corresponding to backward, or demand, effects in the Spanish economy, this method is similar to the new sector approach for disaggregation of economic activities used in Miller and Blair (1985; 2009). The productive sectoral scope of the analysis is classified in Table 1. Table 1 Sectoral accounts considered in the model Productive accounts 1 Agriculture, livestock and forestry 2 Fisheries and aquaculture 3 extractive industries 4 Food products, beverages and tobacco 5 textiles and clothing , leather and footwear 6 Manufacture of wood and cork 7 Paper industry , publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media 8 Manufacture of coke , refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel 9 Chemistry industry 10 Processing industry of rubber and plastic products 11 Industry other non-metallic mineral products 12 Metallurgy and manufacture of metal products 13 Construction industry machinery and mechanical equipment 14 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 15 Industry electrical equipment , electronic and optical 16 Manufacture of transport equipment 17 Various manufacturing industry 17b Ophthalmic Optics 18 Production and distribution of electricity , gas and water 19b Trade and services Own elaboration. Source: SAMESP-08, Fuentes & Mainar (2014) AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  3. Spanish international trade with Morocco and Portugal. 3.1. Main inter-country flows. Spanish trade balance was negative by 24,471 million of euros in 2014 (Estacom). Exports and imports reached 240 and 264 thousands of million euros, or 318 and 351 thousands of million USD (UN, 2015)2. Thus the coverage rate reach 91%, 3% lower than that of 2013 due to a higher increase in imports than in exports, the evolution is described in Figure 1, where the grey line indicates the trade balance. Figure 1 International trade in Spain -500 000 -400 000 -300 000 -200 000 -100 000 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Exports Imports 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Coverage rate Own elaboration. Source: UU.NN. (2015) Exports, imports in millions of USD. Spanish trade structure by products is charted in Figure 2, where machinery and transport equipment is the main type of product exported and mineral fuels is the main type of product imported. Trade by regions is represented in Figure 3, Europe is the destiny of 70% of total exports, while Africa is the last recipient partner with 7% of total.  2 A reference to USD value is made in order to enable the comparison with Comtrade data. AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Figure 2 International trade by products 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 Food, beverages and tobacco Crude materials and oils Mineral fuels Chemicals Goods by material Machinery and transport equipment Miscellaneous manufactured articles Optical goods Not classified elsewhere Imports Exports Own elaboration. Source: Comtrade, (UN, 2015) Units in millions of USD. Figure 3 Spanish international trade by regions 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Africa America Asia Europe Oceania Exports Imports Own elaboration. Source: Estacom. Units in thousand millions euros. Spanish imports reach 264 thousand millions euros in 2014, although these are not as concentrated as exports flows, Europe represents also a high share of the total, with 60% (158 thousand million euros), and similarly to the outgoing flow, Africa (11%) is the last position. Destinies and origin of the Spanish international trade are found in maps 1 and 2, where is represented not only the high dependence from Europe in exports, but also the concentration of imports from Europe, USA and China. AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Figure 4 Exports from Spain Own elaboration. Source: Estacom (ICEX, 2015). Units in thousand million euros. Figure 5 Imports to Spain Own elaboration. Source: Estacom (ICEX, 2015). Units in thousand million euros.. AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Table 2 International trade: Spain-North Africa Imports Exports Total value Share in the upper geographical level Total value Share in the upper geographical level Total 264 506 726 100% 240 034 872 100% Africa 28 109 153 11% 16 318 362 7% North Africa 14 995 040 53% 12 163 778 75% Algeria 9 060 392 60% 3 701 063 30% Egypt 597 520 4% 1 149 433 9% West Sahara n.a. n.a. 2 871 0% Libya 876 514 6% 564 139 5% Morocco 4 054 882 27% 5 834 572 48% Tunisia 405 732 3% 911 699 7% Own elaboration. Source: Eurostacom (ICEX, 2015). Units in thousand euros. The two main partners in Africa: Morocco and Algeria are those with a higher increase in the evolution of exchanges. Import growth has reach up to twice the initial value for the case of Algeria and near 50% for the case of Morocco in the period from 2010 to 2014 (Table 3). While exports growth reaches 81% and 68%, respectively (Table 4). Therefore, although trade with North Africa represents around 5% of total international trade in Spain, there is a high increase through last periods, especially in exports. Table 3 Imports from North Africa to Spain 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 DZ: Algeria 4 557 970 5 669 994 6 884 557 9 260 282 9 060 392 EG: Egypt 1 356 689 1 397 659 1 140 977 887 943 597 520 LY: Libya 3 352 839 739 768 3 322 581 1 927 799 876 514 MA: Morocco 2 747 344 3 100 629 3 122 511 3 530 008 4 054 882 TN: Tunisia 624 287 597 592 575 452 563 483 405 732 Own elaboration. Source: Eurostacom. Units in thousands of euros. Table 4 Exports from Spain to North Africa 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 DZ: Algeria 2 041 154 2 498 805 3 461 147 3 894 126 3 701 063 EG: Egypt 901 911 803 162 1 077 829 1 077 571 1 149 433 LY: Libya 253 618 109 671 379 980 464 039 564 139 MA: Morocco 3 482 819 4 130 312 5 294 760 5 521 257 5 834 572 TN: Tunisia 895 609 850 255 995 120 923 222 911 699 AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Table 10 Portuguese and Moroccan share in Spanish exports and total-relative importance of exports by sectors. Sector Share of exports to Morocco by sectors Share of exports to Portugal by sectors Total relative importance of exports to Morocco Total relative importance of exports to Portugal 1 0.77% 7.61% 0.04% 0.38% 2 1.19% 23.39% 0.00% 0.06% 3 0.84% 2.32% 0.00% 0.00% 4 0.47% 12.59% 0.05% 1.31% 5 5.23% 9.61% 0.16% 0.29% 6 4.49% 18.73% 0.03% 0.14% 7 2.38% 16.08% 0.07% 0.45% 8 7.29% 7.14% 0.20% 0.19% 9 1.29% 7.07% 0.10% 0.55% 10 3.36% 11.11% 0.09% 0.29% 11 2.59% 6.13% 0.07% 0.18% 12 3.17% 8.69% 0.30% 0.82% 13 2.53% 6.81% 0.09% 0.23% 14 41.78% 36.39% 0.13% 0.11% 15 4,20% 8.85% 0.16% 0.33% 16 1.63% 3.14% 0.23% 0.44% 17 1.85% 13.52% 0.03% 0.22% 17b 1.25% 20.02% 0.00% 0.01% 18 41.78% 36.39% 0.45% 0.39% 19b 0.03% 10.24% 0.02% 6.78% Own calculations. Sources: Estacom (ICEX, 2015), SAMESP-08 (Fuentes & Mainar, 2014) and SAMESPV-08 used in Barrera el at. (2015). Sector descriptors follow previous correspondence shown in Table 1. Total relative importance as a share of the backward multiplier effect in the total-economy output AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  Figure 8 Relative importance index of Spanish exports to Morocco and Portugal. 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 17b 18 Morocco Portugal Own calculations. Sources: Estacom (ICEX, 2015), SAMESP-08 (Fuentes & Mainar, 2014) and SAMESPV-08 used in Barrera el at. (2015). Sectoral descriptors follow previous correspondence shown in Table 1. Relative importance as a share of the backward multiplier effect in the total sectoral output. Reddish cells in Table 10 are those with the above average total-relative importance in each of the countries considered. Number of sectors above average is lower in the Portuguese analysis, but backward effects of international trade relations with Portugal is larger than with Morocco. Furthermore, the relevance do not rely in the number of sectors, but in the multiplier intensity over the total output of the economy, that is the linkages with Portugal are more intense, but those with Morocco are more diverse. In depth analysis by sectors, indicates that ophthalmic optical sector (17b) stands out among the others (Figure 8) when Portuguese flows are considered. Furthermore, the comparison between the total coverage rate (25%) and the country coverage rate (164% with Morocco and 218% with Portugal), is an indicator of the comparative advantage of optics with those two countries. Nevertheless, the size of those flows are, as mention before, nearly negligible. Therefore, the importance of optical exports to Morocco is one of the lowest in absolute terms (8 million of euros) and the total relative importance, that is the share in the total economy output, is non-existent. Nonetheless, optical exports to Portugal, as mentioned before, reach 20% of total optical exports to the entire World, whose total relative importance, that is in terms of output, is 0.01%. In other words, the stop of optical exports to Portugal would lead to a negative effect in the Spanish economy of 136 million of euros. Considering the total economy, the highest relevance of Portuguese economy is characterized by a highest concentration. Thus, most important Portuguese sectors for the Spanish economy are: 4, 12 and 19b (Table 11). Regarding Morocco (Table 12), the importance and the concentration by sectors is lower than for the Portuguese case, with 0.11% of average AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  effect (against 0.66% of the Portuguese economy) and 0.001 of Standard deviation (against 0.014 of Portugal). The most important flow towards Morocco is production and distribution supplies (0.45%), with a lower impact than the average for Portugal. As a whole, trade relative importance with Morocco is quantified in 2.21% of the Spanish economy, while trade relative importance with Portugal is quantified in 13.16% of the total Spanish economy. Table 11 Sectors with an above average effect due to trade relations with Portugal. 4 Food products, beverages and tobacco 12 Metallurgy and manufacture of metal products 19b Trade and services Own elaboration. Equivalences of sectors is referenced in Table 1 Table 12 Sectors with an above average effect due to trade relations with 5 Textiles and clothing, leather and footwear industry 8 Coking plants, oil refining and nuclear fuels treatment 12 Metallurgy and metal products manufacturing 14 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment 15 Electric, electronic and optical equipment industry 16 Manufacture of transport equipment 18 Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water Own elaboration. Equivalences of sectors is referenced in Table 1 AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  5. Conclusiones Exports structure of the three economies considered trigger the promotion of trade relations between neighbours, with the three of them presenting a negative trade balance. Regardless of that situation, the Spanish linkages with Portugal are considerably higher than those taking place with Morocco. Facing this situation, there are two aspects to tackle, first: taking the advantage of geographical location to approximate linkages with Morocco to those with Portugal; and second: expanding the scope of sectoral specialization and diversification in order to differentiate from neighbours and being able to promote trade with them. Regarding the second aspect, ophthalmic optics is considered to be a possible “new sector” to promote in order to favour the international trade taking advantage of: geographical localization and potential increasing demand. From the international trade analysis in the frame of input-output techniques the importance of the Portuguese linkages are quantified in 136 millions of euros, significantly higher than the initial importance of Morocco: 8 million of euros. Considering that proximity with Portugal can serve as indicator of the potential importance of Morocco, we conclude that there are still possibilities for the promotion of trade. In this aspect, it is remarkable that optical exports to Morocco present a higher share in the total flow to Morocco than for the total Spanish exports. Furthermore, in the context of trade openness between Europe and Africa, Spain can easily consider to play a role in order to improve the trade flows with Morocco, promoting sectors with a higher comparative advantage than traditionally analysed sectors, and taking advantage of the potential increase in the demand for visual products, especially from developing countries. Furthermore, there is an existing increment in the trade relations with North African countries, due to the existence of new economic agreements with European Union. The share of optics in exports to Morocco exceeds the share of optics in the total exports from Spain, therefore, advantage of the comparative advantage can be consider to enhance the relations with Morocco in this field. Furthermore, although the intensity of the economic effect with origin in Portugal are more intense, there is a more homogeneous trend by sectors due to linkages with Morocco, that is the scope of links is wider. Thus there is not a high specialization in trade flows. According to the relative importance, considering only the size of the sector and not the share for the total economy, ophthalmic optical linkages are in fact one of the highest values for the Portuguese links. This paper propose the promotion traded between Morocco and Spain not relaying in similar comparative advantage, and instead develop relations in the field of ophthalmic optics. That would improve economic relations against the traditional Heckscher-Ohlin model that AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  would not benefit the trade flows among similar economic structures, as it is the case. Further analysis will be develop in this field and the relation with the distance cut-off value to determine whether the Portuguese linkages could be translated into the Morocco scope. AtlanticReviewofEconomics–2ndVolume‐2016  RevistaAtlánticadeEconomía–Volumen2‐2016  References Baldwin-Edwards, M. (2006). 'Between a rock and a hard place': North Africa as a region of emigration, immigration and transit migration. Review of African Political Economy, 33(108), 311-324. Barrera-Lozano, M., Mainar-Causapé, A., & Vallés-Ferrer, J. (2015). Disaggregation of sectors in Social Accounting Matrices using a customized Wolsky method. Applied Economics Letters(22), 1020 - 1024. Barrera-Lozano, M., Mainar-Causapé, A., & Vallés-Ferrer, J. (2016). Ophthalmic-optical foreign sector and policy implications. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies. Blancas, A. (2003). 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