Oleotourism as a sustainable product: an analysis of its demand in the South of Spain (Andalusia)

sustainability Article Oleotourism as a Sustainable Product: An Analysis of Its Demand in the South of Spain (Andalusia) María Genoveva Millán1, María del Pópulo. Pablo-Romero 2,3,*ID and Javier Sánchez-Rivas 2 1Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Economics and Business Sciences, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Escritor Castilla Aguayo 4, 14004 Cordoba, Spain; [email protected] 2Department of Economic Analysis and Political Economy, Faculty of Economics and Business Sciences, Universidad de Sevilla, Ramon y Cajal 1, 41018 Seville, Spain; [email protected] 3Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado. Universidad Autónoma de Chile, Pedro de Valdivia 425, Providencia, 7500912 Santiago, Chile *Correspondence: mpablor[email protected] Received: 17 November 2017; Accepted: 1 January 2018; Published: 3 January 2018 Abstract: Olive oil has generated a new tourism offer in Spain called oleotourism. Visitors can enjoy landscapes of ancient olive groves and visit its oil mills called almazaras, to learn about its manufacture and to taste different oil varieties. Andalusia, located in the south of Spain, produces 60% of Spain’s olive oil, having the largest number of almazaras, and therefore most oleotourism offers. This differentiated tourism offer requires identifying the profile of oleotourists to determine sustainable strategies to increase demand without harming the local community. The objective of this study is to identify the Andalusian oleotourism offer according to the profile of oleotourists and project its demand evolution, in order to offer a sustainable product best suited to the demand. With this aim, three techniques are applied in this study: a random survey addressed to oleotourists in Andalusia, a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in the region, and finally, its demand is projected by using the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model. The results indicate a favorable future scenario that should induce entrepreneurs and local authorities to invest in promoting and developing a product. Oleotourism is an alternative that can serve as a complement to agricultural income and generate employment. Keywords: olive oil tourism; oleotourism; Andalusia; SWOT analysis; ARIMA; Protected Designation of Origin; gastronomic tourism; tourist perception JEL Classification: O18; R15; R10; C13 1. Introduction The recent expansion of rural tourism in Spain has resulted in a progressive consolidation of this product, in a market characterized for decades by a “monoculture” of sun and sand tourism [ 1 ]. The crisis in traditional tourism, resulting from a change in consumer preferences that tend to demand a broader set of products and quality over the quantity of products [ 2 ], has given way to a phenomenon of mass consumption of “nature” in its recreational and tourism forms. Rural areas have diversified their different economic activities to include rural tourism. This tourism offer is linked to relaxation, landscapes, traditional culture and escape from mass tourism. It enables contact with the natural environment and an interaction with local communities [ 3 ] through different forms, such as ecotourism, agritourism, cultural tourism, adventure tourism, sports tourism, gastronomic tourism, etc. On the one hand, rural tourism emerges from the combination of the characteristic factors of postindustrial societies, where recreational consumption trends have evolved towards what is called Sustainability 2018,10, 101; doi:10.3390/su10010101 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018,10, 101 2 of 19 “a la carte tourism” [ 4 ]. On the other hand, since the 1990s, the rural crisis observed during recent decades prompted the European Union authorities to seek innovative solutions to improve the viability and competitiveness of rural areas. This promotion has led to a production diversification, the search for sustainable development processes and the highlighting of strategies, based on quality [ 2 ], as potential sources of income in the rural environment. Rural spaces have therefore diversified, and an example of this diversification is through tourism. Nevertheless, the development of this type of tourism offer should be sustainable. Moreover, sustainable rural tourism should be designed to be compatible with the ecological, socio-cultural and economic elements, and the way of life of future generations. This type of tourism, including oleotourism, serves as an alternative to the pursuit of short-term and medium-term economic benefits, and favors a rational use of natural and human resources, based on ecology, economic and social sustainability [5–11]. In this sense, pursuing sustainable development in rural regions has turned tourism into an economic policy tool which complements traditional income gains [ 12 , 13 ]. However, its economic impact on growth remains open to debate [ 14 ], due to the relative scarceness of complementary activities undertaken by visitors to rural areas [ 15 , 16 ]. In recent years, new behaviors and consumption patterns of tourists have been detected in rural regions. For example, the segments identified by Frochot [ 17 ] indicate that the attraction of rural areas is mostly to be found in broader attractive features, including their naturalness, scenery, culture and activities. The study by Bel et al. [ 18 ] indicates that rural tourism involves activities aimed at experiencing the outdoors or enjoying local sights, based on natural and cultural amenities. Additionally, Pesonen [ 19 ] identifies four segments: social travelers, wellbeing travelers, home region travelers and family travelers. Moreover, in the study by Rid et al. [ 20 ], another four segments are considered: heritage-nature seekers, multi-experience seekers, multi-experience-beach seekers, and sun-beach seekers. Thus, new rural tourists make greater and more profitable use of the landscape and of its environmental, cultural, and architectural resources. Based on the rural environment and rural activities, it is possible to classify rural destination resources. Table 1shows the passive and active tourism resources in rural environments, based on the previous classification by Greciet [ 21 ], Martínez [ 22 ], Cohen et al. [ 23 ], and Sanchez and Vargas [ 24 ]. Bel et al. [ 18 ] considered that rural tourism demand can be divided into five segments, according to the activities undertaken: water-based activities, outdoor activities and experiencing nature, nature and heritage discovery, gastronomy and doing nothing. Table 1. Passive and active tourism resources in rural environments. Passive Resources Natural Resources Historic-Artistic Heritage Cultural Expressions Landscapes Monuments Folklore Climate Castles Gastronomy (oleotourism) Natural parks Popular architecture Religious celebrations Recreational areas Sculpture Artistic festivals Roads, trails, routes Handicrafts: smithy, pottery Ferias (Fairs) Wildlife Sites Carnivals Flora Customs and popular traditions Active Resources Recreational Sports Socio-Cultural Rural Participation Others Mountaineering Handicrafts Agricultural activities Painting River tours Languages Livestock Photography Trekking Study of flora Smithies, basketwork, etc. Thermal baths Speleology Wildlife study Manufacture of local products Ecological activities Horse riding Study of environment Cycling Among these activities, gastronomy is becoming more and more relevant, as tourists desire to travel and taste unique and authentic foods [ 25 ]. Nevertheless, although this type of tourism is linked Sustainability 2018,10, 101 3 of 19 to local foods [ 26 ], it is also linked to the rural landscape, as stated in Aybar [ 27 ]. Thus, in the Spanish interior regions, the gastronomic sector is progressively gaining in popularity and tourists’ activities are becoming more important. One of the most representative products of Spanish food is olive oil. It is a symbol of its gastronomic wealth and a product of quality bearing the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) certificate. Nevertheless, olive cultivation makes the population highly dependent on the evolution of income from olive production [ 28 ]. The result of this high dependence produces uncertainty among families, as their incomes will depend on the unpredictability of the quantity and quality of the annual production. This uncertainty is mainly related to annual climate changes. The effects of this uncontrollable factor are exacerbated by the seasonality of the olive harvest that concentrates the work and income of the whole year into a few months. To deal with the decrease of production and resulting income loss, complementary activities, which represent a sort of symbiosis between the agriculture and tourism sectors, have been created in these regions [29]. These complementary activities revolve around features of the olive oil production, such as the almazara (oil mill), olive groves and millenary olive trees. Millan et al. [ 28 ] define the oleotourists as individuals who travel in their leisure time, away from their habitual residence, to deepen understanding of olive growing and olive oil. Visiting its place of production, knowing how olive oil is produced and oil tastings, are more and more in demand, becoming a type of tourism, oleotourism, with strong potential in Spain, and specifically in Andalusia [ 30 ]. This new offer therefore falls within the framework of new types of tourism, consistent with the desires of the modern tourists, who place importance on taking part in different experiences during their travels. In addition, these activities generate new requirements to satisfy the oleotourist demand, which generate the production chain of oleotourism (Figure 1). Thus, as noted previously, oleotourism may foster new economic activities that improve the conditions of the rural population. Sustainability 2018, 10, 101 3 of 19 Table 1. Passive and active tourism resources in rural environments. Passive Resources Natural Resources Historic-Artistic Heritage Cultural Expressions Landscapes Monuments Folklore Climate Castles Gastronomy (oleotourism) Natural parks Popular architecture Religious celebrations Recreational areas Sculpture Artistic festivals Roads, trails, routes Handicrafts: smithy, pottery Ferias (Fairs) Wildlife Sites Carnivals Flora Customs and popular traditions Active Resources Recreational Sports Socio-Cultural Rural Participation Others Mountaineering Handicrafts Agricultural activities Painting River tours Languages Livestock Photography Trekking Study of flora Smithies, basketwork, etc. Thermal baths Speleology Wildlife study Manufacture of local products Ecological activities Horse riding Study of environment Cycling These complementary activities revolve around features of the olive oil production, such as the almazara (oil mill), olive groves and millenary olive trees. Millan et al. [28] define the oleotourists as individuals who travel in their leisure time, away from their habitual residence, to deepen understanding of olive growing and olive oil. Visiting its place of production, knowing how olive oil is produced and oil tastings, are more and more in demand, becoming a type of tourism, oleotourism, with strong potential in Spain, and specifically in Andalusia [30]. This new offer therefore falls within the framework of new types of tourism, consistent with the desires of the modern tourists, who place importance on taking part in different experiences during their travels. In addition, these activities generate new requirements to satisfy the oleotourist demand, which generate the production chain of oleotourism (Figure 1). Thus, as noted previously, oleotourism may foster new economic activities that improve the conditions of the rural population. Figure 1. Schema of the chain of production of oleotourism. However, concrete measures are required to support both sectors (agriculture and tourism), in order to achieve a symbiosis between the gastronomic product and tourism, leading to socioeconomic development of these areas. Thus, it is essential to understand the motivation of people who demand this type of tourism and to determine which factors influence its demand, so that appropriate measures can be implemented to accommodate supply to new demand and thus avoid creating imbalances between them. In that regard, it is worth noting that there is no single profile of the gastronomic tourist, as these individuals differ depending on the type of product. Thus, the enological tourist, for example, does not share the same characteristics as the oleotourist [31]. The objective of this study is to delve into the oleotourism characteristics in Andalusia, the Spanish region where olive production is mainly located. On the one hand, the study identifies Andalusia’s oleotourism offer, according to the profile of oleotourists and the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in the region. On the other hand, the study forecasts the evolution of the demand to offer a sustainable product, best suited to demand. With this aim, three techniques are applied in this study. Firstly, a random survey addressed to oleotourists in Andalusia was undertaken during 2016 and 2017 to determine the characteristics of oleotourists. This survey not only enlarged previous literature, related to the profile of oleotourists in Andalusia in a more recent period [32,33], but also considered a wider perspective by including questions related to travel expenses, number of overnight stays and tourist knowledge of the olive oil culture. Secondly, a SWOT Figure 1. Schema of the chain of production of oleotourism. However, concrete measures are required to support both sectors (agriculture and tourism), in order to achieve a symbiosis between the gastronomic product and tourism, leading to socio-economic development of these areas. Thus, it is essential to understand the motivation of people who demand this type of tourism and to determine which factors influence its demand, so that appropriate measures can be implemented to accommodate supply to new demand and thus avoid creating imbalances between them. In that regard, it is worth noting that there is no single profile of the gastronomic tourist, as these individuals differ depending on the type of product. Thus, the enological tourist, for example, does not share the same characteristics as the oleotourist [31]. The objective of this study is to delve into the oleotourism characteristics in Andalusia, the Spanish region where olive production is mainly located. On the one hand, the study identifies Andalusia’s oleotourism offer, according to the profile of oleotourists and the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in the region. On the other hand, the study forecasts the evolution of the demand to offer a sustainable product, best suited to demand. With this aim, three techniques are applied in this study. Firstly, a random survey addressed to oleotourists in Andalusia was undertaken during 2016 and 2017 to determine the characteristics of oleotourists. This survey not only enlarged previous literature, related to the profile of oleotourists in Andalusia in a more recent period [ 32 , 33 ], but also considered a wider perspective by including questions related to travel expenses, number of overnight stays and tourist knowledge of the olive oil culture. Secondly, a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis was performed to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in the region. Finally, a seasonal ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model Sustainability 2018,10, 101 4 of 19 was estimated and the oleotourist demand was forecast. It is worth noting that these two analyses are linked. The results from the SWOT analysis may inform about the weaknesses and strengths of the sector, which could ultimately induce economic actors to adequately promote the sector. However, they would not act without knowing the evolution of the olive tourism. The economic actors will not risk their money without knowing or previously estimate the possible benefits from their investments. To estimate these benefits, they need to know the future evolution of tourism demands. 2. Literature Review Some previous studies have been undertaken related to oleotourism and its demand, although different terms have been used to define the relationship between tourism and olive oil. For example, as stated in Lopez-Guzmán et al. [ 34 ], terms such as olive tourism, olive oil tourism, olive-based agritourism and oleotourism have been used before. Nevertheless, most studies have been using the term oleotourism to refer to this relationship. Earlier studies in this field were conducted by Alonso [ 35 ] and Alonso and Northcote [ 36 ]; both being related to oleotourism in Australia. These studies have subsequently been extended to other countries, mainly Spain, Italy and Greece. Among the first should be mentioned the study by Murgado [ 37 ] analyzing the state of olive oil tourism in Spain. The author concludes that tourist routes are poorly developed, due to low marketing and management development. Moreover, the study by Ruiz et al. [ 38 ] shows the impacts that the olive oil tourism could have on the Spanish tourist industry by conducting a series of surveys of academic teachers and some professionals in the area. The authors consider that the potential of this type of tourism is high, although it could be limited by lack of knowledge of the olive oil culture, as many tourists do not know the traditional olive oil production processes. In this way, the surveys’ respondents consider that visiting the place only for this reason is not enough. Therefore, the authors consider it appropriate to link it to other rural or cultural activities. In a similar study which also referred to the Spanish tourist industry, Molina et al. [ 39 ] indicate that the practice of oleotourism has emerged as an area similar to the practice of wine tourism, acquiring a high potential within rural tourism. Additionally, the study by Campón-Cerro et al. [ 10 ] proposes a tourism management model for the olive grove areas in the South of Spain. Likewise, the study by Millán et al. [ 40 ] analyzes the strategies that the tourism sector could put into practice to convert olive oil into a benchmark for culinary tourism. In this sense, the authors consider that it could be advantageous to encourage the coordination of public and private institutions to promote culinary tourism. Among those related to Italy, the study by De Salvo et al. [ 41 ] developed a theoretical contextualization of oleotourism in the gastronomic tourism, and compared the experiences of extra virgin olive oil enhancement and promotion in Italy and Spain, using the technique of benchmarking. Additionally, in the study by Sabbatini et al. [ 42 ], a logistic regression is estimated with the aim of studying the tourists that decide to buy olive oil in Crete. In addition to these papers, some recent ones have focused on the socio-demographic profile of tourists interested in learning about the production of olive oil, and their motivation to visit the olive oil areas. Among these, the study by Cañero Morales et al. [ 32 ] analyzes olive oil tourism from a demand point of view, by focusing on the motivation and satisfaction of visitors to museums, interpretive centers and olive oil mills, in the provinces of Cordoba and Jaen, the most important area in the world for olive oil production. The study by López-Guzmán et al. [ 34 ] also analyzes the socio-demographic profile of oleotourists in the same geographical areas of Andalusia. Likewise, the study by Aguera et al. [ 33 ] analyzes the socio-demographic profile of tourists and their activities, motivations, assessments and levels of satisfaction with the trip, in the same area. The results of these studies are very similar. In fact, these studies are all based on the same sample, on 414 surveys taken in 2014. The studies indicate that the socio-demographic profile of oleotourists is an adult, with a significant level of education and upper middle class. The main reasons for visiting places related to olive oil are: getting to know the geographical area, learning about olive oil, and eating and Sustainability 2018,10, 101 5 of 19 drinking traditional products. Likewise, the studies pointed out that tourists mostly valued hospitality, environmental conservation and cultural activities. In addition to these studies, Millán and Pérez [ 31 ] analyze the similarities between the profiles of wine and olive oil tourists to examine the commercialization possibilities between the two groups. The study shows that the socio-demographic profiles of wine and olive oil tourists are similar. The tourists are adults with a medium-high level of education. Nevertheless, the wine tourists have higher income level. Likewise, in both cases, only a small percentage of tourists come from outside Spain. The main reason for the trip is to visit the winery or the oil mill. Mostly, they were satisfied with their visit, although the percentage of wine tourists that would repeat the trip is considerably greater. These previous studies have focused mainly on the socio-demographic profile and the motivations of the tourists that visit the geographical areas related to olive oil. Nevertheless, little has been said about the travel characteristics of oleotourism, as for example travel expenses and stays, and the tourists’ knowledge of olive oil. Knowing the duration of the trip, number of stays and the average daily cost is of special interest for entrepreneurs in the area, who have to make economic valuations of possible tourist activities. Likewise, knowing the oil culture is also relevant, since it allows analyzing if the visitors already have a previous oil culture. This is pertinent because, as noted above, some tourists may not be interested in visiting an oil mill if they are not previously familiar with olive oil. Therefore, following these previous papers, this study aims to expand on these questions. Additionally, this study goes beyond the previous papers, since it not only analyzes the profile of tourists, but also evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in the region and forecasts its demand. 3. Materials and Methods 3.1. Area of the Study Andalusia is the geographical area of this study. Spain is the world’s leading producer and exporter of olive oil with the 2015–2016 harvest yielding 1,393,572 tons, corresponding to 60% of world production, with 700,000 tons exported [ 43 ]. Production is mainly located in Andalusia. As shown in Figure 2, its olive cultivation surface area represents 60.2% of the total in Spain in 2016. In addition, there are 31 PDO certificates of virgin and extra virgin olive oil, 14 of them located in Andalusia, as shown in Figure 3. Sustainability 2018, 10, 101 5 of 19 olive oil are: getting to know the geographical area, learning about olive oil, and eating and drinking traditional products. Likewise, the studies pointed out that tourists mostly valued hospitality, environmental conservation and cultural activities. In addition to these studies, Millán and Pérez [31] analyze the similarities between the profiles of wine and olive oil tourists to examine the commercialization possibilities between the two groups. The study shows that the socio-demographic profiles of wine and olive oil tourists are similar. The tourists are adults with a medium-high level of education. Nevertheless, the wine tourists have higher income level. Likewise, in both cases, only a small percentage of tourists come from outside Spain. The main reason for the trip is to visit the winery or the oil mill. Mostly, they were satisfied with their visit, although the percentage of wine tourists that would repeat the trip is considerably greater. These previous studies have focused mainly on the socio-demographic profile and the motivations of the tourists that visit the geographical areas related to olive oil. Nevertheless, little has been said about the travel characteristics of oleotourism, as for example travel expenses and stays, and the tourists’ knowledge of olive oil. Knowing the duration of the trip, number of stays and the average daily cost is of special interest for entrepreneurs in the area, who have to make economic valuations of possible tourist activities. Likewise, knowing the oil culture is also relevant, since it allows analyzing if the visitors already have a previous oil culture. This is pertinent because, as noted above, some tourists may not be interested in visiting an oil mill if they are not previously familiar with olive oil. Therefore, following these previous papers, this study aims to expand on these questions. Additionally, this study goes beyond the previous papers, since it not only analyzes the profile of tourists, but also evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in the region and forecasts its demand. 3. Materials and Methods 3.1. Area of the Study Andalusia is the geographical area of this study. Spain is the world’s leading producer and exporter of olive oil with the 2015–2016 harvest yielding 1,393,572 tons, corresponding to 60% of world production, with 700,000 tons exported [43]. Production is mainly located in Andalusia. As shown in Figure 2, its olive cultivation surface area represents 60.2% of the total in Spain in 2016. In addition, there are 31 PDO certificates of virgin and extra virgin olive oil, 14 of them located in Andalusia, as shown in Figure 3. Figure 2. Olive growing surface areas in the Spanish regions in 2016. Source: Own elaboration from MAGRAMA [43]. Figure 2. Olive growing surface areas in the Spanish regions in 2016. Source: Own elaboration from MAGRAMA [43]. Sustainability 2018,10, 101 6 of 19 Sustainability 2018, 10, 101 6 of 19 Figure 3. Location of the olive oil Protected Designation of Origin certificates. Likewise, Andalusia also possesses the highest number of olive resources in Spain, as shown in Table 2. Olive oil related activities are the main economic resource for more than 250,000 families in more than 300 Andalusian municipalities. Therefore, Andalusia can be considered representative of the olive oil tourism sector and thus serve to determine the profile of oleotourists and anticipate the demand of the sector. Table 2. Number of olive resources by the Autonomous Communities of Spain in 2014. Autonomous Communities Almazaras (Oil Mills) Packaging Orujera * Refineries Packaging/Curing Laboratories Andalusia 818 669 39 15 242 349 Aragon 103 108 1 1 37 16 Balearic Islands 9 19 3 88 Castile-La Mancha 252 240 9 3 10 1 Castile and Leon 19 19 9 55 Catalonia 197 221 6 4 28 39 Extremadura 119 115 7 104 9 Galicia 3 4 Madrid 20 25 17 13 Murcia 40 42 16 3 Navarre 17 18 1 1 4 3 Basque C. 4 5 2 1 La Rioja 22 25 2 32 Valencia C. 133 133 13 8 TOTAL 1756 1643 63 24 487 617 Source: Own elaboration from MAGRAMA [43]; * Crude olive pomace oil extraction industry. 3.2. Methodology To analyze the demand of oleotourism in Andalusia, three techniques are applied in this study. The first technique is quantitative. It is based on a random sampling obtained using a questionnaire addressed to oleotourists in Andalusia. The technical data of the survey are provided in Table 3. Figure 3. Location of the olive oil Protected Designation of Origin certificates. Likewise, Andalusia also possesses the highest number of olive resources in Spain, as shown in Table 2. Olive oil related activities are the main economic resource for more than 250,000 families in more than 300 Andalusian municipalities. Therefore, Andalusia can be considered representative of the olive oil tourism sector and thus serve to determine the profile of oleotourists and anticipate the demand of the sector. Table 2. Number of olive resources by the Autonomous Communities of Spain in 2014. Autonomous Communities Almazaras (Oil Mills) Packaging Orujera * Refineries Packaging/Curing Laboratories Andalusia 818 669 39 15 242 349 Aragon 103 108 1 1 37 16 Balearic Islands 9 19 3 88 Castile-La Mancha 252 240 9 3 10 1 Castile and Leon 19 19 9 55 Catalonia 197 221 6 4 28 39 Extremadura 119 115 7 104 9 Galicia 3 4 Madrid 20 25 17 13 Murcia 40 42 16 3 Navarre 17 18 1 1 4 3 Basque C. 4 5 2 1 La Rioja 22 25 2 32 Valencia C. 133 133 13 8 TOTAL 1756 1643 63 24 487 617 Source: Own elaboration from MAGRAMA [43]; * Crude olive pomace oil extraction industry. 3.2. Methodology To analyze the demand of oleotourism in Andalusia, three techniques are applied in this study. The first technique is quantitative. It is based on a random sampling obtained using a questionnaire addressed to oleotourists in Andalusia. The technical data of the survey are provided in Table 3. Sustainability 2018,10, 101 7 of 19 Table 3. Technical data of the survey. Population Male and female tourists 18 years of age or more on a visit to the PDO Sample size 564 valid questionnaires Margin of error ±4.6% Level of confidence 96%; p = q = 0.5 * Sampling system Simple random Fieldwork dates September 2016–February 2017 * To calculate the sample size needed, Z a2 pq/d 2 is used, where Z a is the level of confidence, p and q are the success and failure probability, respectively, and d is the margin of error. The design of the questionnaire consisted of 27 questions with dichotomous answers, Likert scales (values from 1 to 10, where 10 is the best and 1 the worst), and open responses along the lines of the following five sections: • Oleotourist socioeconomic profile: gender, age, educational level, family status, monthly income, etc. •Itinerary characteristics: price, how one learned of it, where purchased, etc. • Assessments and opinions on the itinerary: accommodation, restaurants, roads, signage, customer care, etc. • Degree of satisfaction with the product: visits to oil mills, oil tasting, visits to millenary olive trees, etc. • Knowledge of olive oil: habitual olive oil consumption, distinguishing between virgin and extra virgin olive oil, etc. The second technique is qualitative. It is based on a SWOT analysis and evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of the oleotourism sector in Andalusia based on the threats and external opportunities. This analysis was founded on 102 interviews conducted with people in business (oil mill, hotel and restaurant executives), representatives of public entities (councils, rural development groups, and regulatory councils of PDO certificates) and associations from the rural world linked to olive oil production. The survey consisted of 25 questions grouped into three blocks. The first block consists of several closed questions about the type of company, personnel and production. The second block consists of Likert scales questions (values from 1 to 5, where 5 is the best and 1 the worst) about the valuation of olive oil tourism in the area. The third block consists of open questions. The respondents were able to comment on their oleotourism experience and on the threats, opportunities, strengths and weaknesses that they appreciated. The third technique attempts to determine the oleotourist demand in Andalusia, based on a sampling (96 data) collected from January 2009 to December 2016. The Box–Jenkins (BJ) methodology [ 44 ], technically known as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, is applied to carry this out. According to Gujarati [ 45 ], the virtue of this predictive method is not in the construction of uniequational models, or simultaneous equations, but in the analysis of the probabilistic or stochastic properties of the economic time series themselves, in this case, the number of oleotourists in Andalusia. This was undertaken following the philosophy of “to let the information speak for itself”. Unlike regression models in which the number of oleotourists variable can be explained by other regressors, such as income, in time series models (BJ), the number of oleotourists variable is explained by past or lagging values and by stochastic terms of error. According to Chu [ 46 ], ARIMA models have been widely used in forecasting tourism demand. In addition, several variants of the ARIMA modeling approach have also been applied in most of the post-2000 studies that used forecast techniques with time series [ 47 ]. In this regard, several previous studies have shown that the ARIMA model and its variants obtain good results in the forecast of tourist demand and, in most cases, exceed other time series methods, such as the periodic autoregressive model [ 48 , 49 ], the moving-average and exponential smoothing models [ 50 ] and the multivariate adaptive regression splines [51]. Sustainability 2018,10, 101 8 of 19 Among the ARIMA models, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models have been quite popular within the tourism literature [ 52 ]. Some recent SARIMA model estimates can be found in the literature (e.g., [ 52 – 54 ]). The stationary ARIMA models consider the mean of the series constant over time, and the correlation function depends on the delay, and not on the time, in which it is calculated. However, time series, in addition to random, cyclical and seasonal variations, present trends and seasonal components (the mean varies over time and seasons), which means that stationary processes are not sufficient for modeling. For this reason, SARIMA models are introduced, which make it possible to eliminate the trend and seasonal component. Therefore, taking into account the advantage of using the ARIMA model to forecast tourism demand, the goodness of the SARIMA model which performs reasonably well for forecasting tourism demand [ 55 ], and the frequent use in these types of studies, the model used in this study to forecast the oleotourism demand is the univariate SARIMA (p,d,q) × (P,D,Q)s model, where p denotes the number of autoregressive parameters, d denotes the degree of integration, q denotes the number of moving average parameters and s is the period of seasonality. The SARIMA model may be defined as follows: ϕ(B) Φ(Bs) Zt=θ(B) θ(Bs)at Zt= (1 −B)d(1 −Bs)DYtλ(1) where Y is the oleotourist demand, λ is the correction of the tendency of variance of the series, B is the “backshift operator” or lag operator, B s means backshift s times, d and D denote the non-seasonal and seasonal differencing, respectively, and Z t is the stationary series. In addition, the ordinary autoregressive and moving average components are represented by polynomials ϕ (B) and θ (B) of orders p and q, while the seasonal autoregressive and moving average components are Φ (B s ) and θ(Bs), with P and Q being their orders. Once the model is estimated, the sample autocorrelation is examined, based on the Ljung–Box Q-statistics. The Ljung–Box Q-statistics have been used in previous studies (e.g, [ 56 , 57 ]). Likewise, the model was validated through the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) test, as previously made in tourism studies (e.g., [ 53 , 58 ]). The ARCH model is suitable for modeling the volatility of a series. To detect the presence of ARCH effects, traditional Ljung–Box statistics are used in the correlograms of the residuals of the equation of the mean and the squared residuals. It also uses a Lagrange multiplier test. Therefore, this test implicitly includes the previous Ljung–Box Q-statistics. Finally, it has also been verified whether the series is stationary, since the application of the ARIMA methodology requires the use of stationary economic series in variance and on average. When a series is not stationary on average, i.e., when it is not integrated zero order I (0), it has at least one unit root. When this happens, it is possible to obtain a stationary series by means of differencing the original series. To test the presence of unit roots, the Augmented Dickey–Fuller seasonal unit root test is performed. Previous studies, such as that by Goh and Law [ 49 ], have also used this test to analyze the series integration order. 4. Results 4.1. Univariate Results The results show that the socio-economic profile of an oleotourist is male (56.7%) and over 45 years of age (57%), the number of tourists decreasing with age. In addition, oleotourists mainly have medium level studies (84.5%), with an income level between € 1001 and € 2000 per month (44.2%), married (51.4%) and from Andalusia (48.9%). It is also worth noting that only a small percentage of oleotourists come from outside Spain (8.2%). With regard to the characteristics of the itinerary of this type of tourism (Table 4), it is noteworthy that 63% of the respondents did not spend the night in the area, due to deficient hotel infrastructure and the proximity of their residence. They usually travel as a family (40.1%) or with friends (42%), and spend around € 36– € 50 per day (53.3%). Furthermore, many of these oleotourists are willing to return to the area, due to their high degree of satisfaction with visits to the mills. In fact, the visit Sustainability 2018,10, 101 9 of 19 to an oil mill is the main motivation of oleotourists (48.3%), as they desire to learn more about the process of manufacturing the product. These factors could therefore generate wealth in these areas by creating jobs in the restoration and crafts sectors, as more than 35% of the tourists did not purchase souvenirs (ceramics, typical local products, etc.), the main reason expressed by the respondents in an open question being the absence of specialized souvenir shops. Table 4. Itinerary characteristics and knowledge of the olive oil culture. Characteristics Percentages Itinerary Number of days Less than 24 h 62.7% Between 2 and 3 days 29.1% More than 3 days 8.2% Average daily expenses Less than €35 27.2% Between €36 and €50 53.2% More than €50 19.6% Souvenirs purchased Yes 64.8% No 35.2% Alone or accompanied Alone 17.9% Family 40.1% Friends 42.0% Motivation Oil mill visits 48.3% Know the region 36.4% Visit millenary trees 5.4% Other 9.9% Satisfaction with the destination Satisfied 83.2% Indifferent 10.7% Not satisfied 6.1% Knowledge of olive oil Consumption of olive oil Daily 56.3% More than once a week 24.8% Occasionally 14.6% Does not consume 4.3% Knows the different varieties of olive oil Yes 84.6% No 15.4% Type of olive oil consumed Extra virgin 64.5% Virgin 35.5% Motivation to consume olive oil Good for the health 48.9% For the taste it gives dishes 48.5% Other 2.6% Regarding knowledge and use of olive oil (Table 4), 56.3% responded positively to a daily consumption in the kitchen. For this reason, olive oil is considered a key element in Mediterranean cuisine. In addition, 64.5% responded positively to consuming extra virgin olive oil, which is of a higher quality than virgin olive oil. Motivation for consuming olive oil is divided between health reasons (48.9%), and its exquisite taste (48.5%). An essential element for the success of a tourism product is its rating by the tourists themselves. Figure 4, which shows a comparative assessment of the olive oil itineraries with respect to rural tourism in Andalusia, suggests that the aspects to be improved are leisure and entertainment (with a scoring of 4.7/10) as there are few options for staying overnight. There is little rural accommodation and few hotels, and all are below the three-star rating. It is apparent that entrepreneurs hesitate to invest in infrastructure if they are not guaranteed a minimum stay to amortize their investment. The signage and information on itineraries also require improvement, as certain oil mills are hidden away and difficult to access, leading many tourists to lose their way. The 7.3/10 rating of the olive oil mill visits indicates that tourists consider the sites to be in good condition, although, in some cases, the individuals offering the explanations of the production process to the tourists were mill workers and not qualified guides. This is one of the main handicaps of the itineraries, as these individuals are not able to explain the manufacturing process in English, a drawback to attracting foreign tourism. Sustainability 2018,10, 101 16 of 19 to increase their knowledge and interest. In this regard, knowledge of the olive oil culture is lower than similar products such as wine. Thus, as stated in Millán and Pérez [ 31 ], while 75% of oleotourists knew different wine PDOs in the geographical zone, only 12% of enotourists knew of some olive oil PDOs. In this line, the current oleotourism demand is very far from that of other similar products, such as enotourism. In that sense, it is worth noting that enotourism generates a total of 2,242,941 wine route visitors in Spain, most of them visiting the location of Penedes in Catalonia and Jerez in Andalusia, with a daily expenditure of € 133.98 and 2.07 average days stay [ 61 ]. Therefore, combining itineraries of both offers could have great benefits and save costs, especially those for promotion in international markets, as these products are typical of the Mediterranean Basin and attractive to visitors with great purchasing power from Northern Europe, Germany, Netherlands, etc. Such a scenario would enable a complementary tourism offer, thereby increasing the number of overnight stays in rural areas and increasing daily expenditure. In addition, coupling its offer with different products would encourage investment in infrastructure such as rural road network improvements, accommodation, etc., resulting in the creation of more stable employment and income for residents. It is worth noting that the forecast demand in this study is estimated by a SARIMA model. The main disadvantage of this type of model is that, being a univariate analysis, it ignores all causal relationships with other endogenous variables, and does not offer information regarding the behavior of explanatory variables. Therefore, it is the temporal stability of the set of causal factors that operate on the dependent variable, the key element on which predictions are articulated through time series [ 62 ]. Therefore, it cannot be known which changes may be positive for the increase of oleotourists in the future. Therefore, it may be advisable to carry out studies to analyze the evolution of oleotourism in relation to other economic, social or environmental variables linked to tourism in the area. Finally, it should be noted that, despite its potential growth, oleotourism is not advocated to be the main source of income in the olive oil producing areas, but it may be a complementary means of income for this rural population. Therefore, it could be appropriate to promote sustainable rural oleotourism through environmentally friendly projects which generate wealth and employment over time, maintain and conserve the environment, and safeguard elements of the industrial heritage such as almazaras (oil mills). This tourism activity is not going to replace, but complement the agricultural sector. In doing so, it will require synergy between all the public and private agents, as well as the local community. 6. Conclusions This study analyzes the oleotourism characteristics and trend in Andalusia. It identifies the profile of oleotourists, their motivations, their itinerary characteristics and their olive oil knowledge. It also analyzes the weaknesses and strengths of the sector. Finally, the study forecasts the evolution of the demand to offer a sustainable product, best suited to demand. With this aim, three techniques were applied in this study. Firstly, a random survey addressed to oleotourists during 2016 and 2017 in Andalusia was undertaken. Secondly, a SWOT analysis was performed. Finally, a seasonal ARIMA model was estimated and the oleotourism demand was forecast. The results show that the socio-economic profile of an oleotourist is male, over 45 years, with medium level studies, with an income level between € 1001 and € 2000 per month, married and mainly from Andalusia. Most oleotourists did not spend the night in the area, travelled with their family or with friends, and spent around € 36– € 50 per day. The results also show that some aspects related to the oleotourism travel ought to be improved, mainly related to leisure and entertainment. In addition, information about itineraries and guides’ explanations also requires improvement. Finally, improving accommodation is also recommended. On the other hand, the results show that oleotourists are highly satisfied with landscapes and natural parks. The SWOT analysis reveals that oleotourism could become a suitable tourism activity for rural Andalusia. The elements that can boost oleotourism are the tourist’s tendency to look for open spaces and the positive attributes of the Andalusia rural environment. The elements that can hinder the Sustainability 2018,10, 101 17 of 19 oleotourism are mainly the lack of entrepreneurs, training of the rural population and people trained to put new tourist programs into operation. In addition, difficulties in accessing finance, high risks and unknown benefits can limit the development of these activities. Finally, the results of the SARIMA model estimates indicate a growing trend in the oleotourism demand in Andalusia with a slight rise (1.5%), these values being lower than those expected for the rural tourism in the region. In addition, a strong seasonality is observed, especially in November and December, coinciding with the time of olive harvesting. In general, the results indicate that oleotourism has a strong potential, although it would not attain the projected rise in rural tourism in Andalusia. In this sense, some policies could be undertaken to boost oleotourism, such as including oleotourism in the main tourist routes in rural Andalusia, focusing mainly on the foreign tourist. Combining oleotourism with other rural activities or visit offers could have a synergistic effect on demand. The increasing demand would also reinforce the expected profits, which could lead to rural investments, for example, in hotels or other services, which finally could increase the tourists’ stays and satisfaction. The lower growth of this type of tourism also makes it desirable to carry out future research comparing oleotourism with other types of rural tourism in the region, so that their differences between can be better understood, and therefore more appropriate specific policies could be applied. In addition, the evolution of oleotourism in relation to other economic, social or environmental variables linked to tourism in the area should be analyzed. Acknowledgments: The second and third authors acknowledge the funding received from the SEJ 132 Project by the Andalusian Regional Government and from the Departamento de Análisis Económico y Economía Politica of the University of Seville. The second author acknowledges the funding received from the “Cátedra de Economía de la Energía y del Medio Ambiente” (Department for Energy Economics and the Environment) of the University of Seville (Reference: 1394/0103) and from the project FONDECYT Regular 1150025 of Chile’s Ministry of Education. The standard disclaimer applies. Author Contributions: María Genoveva Millán was in charge of this research. She contributed to data processing and drafting of the manuscript. María del P. Pablo-Romero contributed to data collection and paper revision. Javier Sánchez-Rivas contributed to data analysis and paper revision. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. References 1. Calderón, F.J. Sostenibilidad y planificación: Ejes del desarrollo turístico sostenible. Desarrollo Local Sostenible 2010,3, 1–11. 2. Ramos, E.; Garrido, D. 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Análisis de la llegada de turistas internacionales a México. Investigación Administrativa 2013 ,42, 20–33. © 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).