A scenario- guided strategy for the futuremanagement of biological invasions

© 2024 The Au ho s. F on ie s in Ecology and he En i onmen published by Wiley Pe iodicals LLC on behal o The Ecological Socie y o Ame ica. A scena io- guided s a egy o he u u e managemen o biological in asions Nú ia Rou a- Pascual1*†, Wol - Ch is ian Saul2,3,4†, C is ian Pé ez- G anados1,5, Lucas Ru ing6, Ga y D Pe e son7, Guillaume La ombe8,9, F anz Essl8, Tim Ad iaens10, Da id C Ald idge11,12, S en Bache 13, Rubén Be na do- Mad id14,15, Lluís B o ons16,17,18, F ançois Diaz19, Belinda Galla do20, Pie o Geno esi21,22, Ma ina Goli e s23, Pablo González- Mo eno24,25, Ma cus Hall26, Pe a Ku lesa27, Be nd Lenzne 8, Chunlong Liu28,29, Kon ad Pagi z30, Te esa Pas o 31, Wol gang Rabi sch32, Pe e Robe son33, Helen E Roy34, Hanno Seebens35, Wojciech Sola z36, Uwe S a inge 37, Rob Tanne 38, Mon se a Vilà14,15, B ian Leung39, Ca la Ga cia- Lozano1, and Jona han M Jeschke2,3,4 Fu u e dynamics o biological in asions a e highly unce ain because hey depend on mul iple social–ecological d i e s. We used a scena io- based app oach o explo e po en ial managemen op ions o in asi e species in Eu ope. Du ing wo wo kshops in ol - ing a mul idisciplina y eam o expe s, we de eloped a managemen s a egy a anged in o 19 goals ela ing o policy, esea ch, public awa eness, and biosecu i y. We concei ed solu ions o achie ing hese goals unde di e en plausible u u e scena ios, and iden i ied ou in e ela ed ecommenda ions a ound which any long- e m s a egy o managing in asi e species can be s uc- u ed: (1) a Eu opean biosecu i y egime, (2) a dedica ed communica ion s a egy, (3) da a s anda diza ion and managemen ools, and (4) a moni o ing and assessmen sys em. Finally, we assessed he easibili y o he managemen s a egy and ound sub- s an ial di e ences among scena ios. Collec i ely, ou esul s indica e ha i is ime o a new s a egy o managing biological in asions in Eu ope, one ha is based on a mo e in eg a i e app oach ac oss socioeconomic sec o s and coun ies. F on Ecol En i on 2024; 22(4): e2725, doi:10.1002/ ee.2725 In asi e species a e key d i e s o global en i onmen al change and s ongly con ibu e o global biodi e si y loss, exe ing unsus ainable economic losses h ough di ec damage and managemen ac ions (Pyšek e al.2020; Diagne e al.2021). Despi e ongoing e o s in policy, esea ch, and managemen , he numbe o non- na i e species in ading p e iously unoccu- pied a eas and es ablishing popula ions a ound he wo ld is s ill inc easing, wi h no sign o sa u a ion (Ea ly e al.2016; Seebens e al.2017). The Con en ion on Biological Di e si y (CBD) u ges coun ies o de elop ea ly- wa ning and su eil- lance sys ems, ac ion plans o add ess p io i y pa hways o in oduc ion, apid e adica ion p ocedu es o p e en es ab- lishmen , and long- e m mi iga ion and con ol measu es (CBD2022b). Howe e , implemen a ion o hese managemen ecommenda ions is challenging due o limi ed esou ces and capaci y, a lack o legal amewo ks (CBD 2020), and he unce ain ies associa ed wi h u u e ajec o ies o socie ies and global change (Pyšek e al.2020; La ombe e al.2022). The numbe o non- na i e species p esen in con inen al Eu ope, in bo h e es ial and ma ine habi a s, is p ojec ed o inc ease o mos axonomic g oups by 2050 (Sa dain e al. 2019; Seebens e al. 2021). These es ima es, which a e based ei he on obse ed pas ends in he accumula ion o non- na i e species o on a limi ed se o global socioeconomic ac o s (eg g oss domes ic p oduc o egional ade), p o ide a baseline o explo ing he u u e dynamics o biological in a- sions. Howe e , u u e numbe s and impac s o in asi e spe- cies a e expec ed o s ongly depend on mul iple en i onmen al and socioeconomic d i e s, which a e highly unce ain and he e o e di icul o an icipa e (Essl e al.2020). Quan i a i e models ha inco po a e hese complexi ies a e s ill lacking and, in any case, would be based on speci ic assump ions ha In a nu shell: • A eam o 35 expe s om di e en coun ies and s ake- holde g oups de eloped a s a egy o managing biological in asions in Eu ope in he coming decades • The s a egy conside s a wide a ay o goals ela ing o policy, esea ch, public awa eness, and biosecu i y • Gi en he high deg ee o mu ual dependence be ween hese goals, managemen e o s should s i e o add ess hem join ly o be e ensu e success • Pa icipan s assessed and e ined he s a egy unde se e al u u e in asion scena ios o imp o e i s o e all easibili y • Managemen o biological in asions in Eu ope equi es a shi owa d a mo e in eg a i e app oach ac oss sec o s and coun ies 1Depa amen de Ciències Ambien als, Facul a de Ciències, Uni e si a de Gi ona, Gi ona, Ca alonia, Spain *([email p o ec ed]); 2Ins i u e o Biology, F eie Uni e si ä Be lin, Be lin, Ge many; 3Leibniz Ins i u e o F eshwa e Ecology and Inland Fishe ies, Be lin, Ge many; 4Be lin- B andenbu g Ins i u e o Ad anced Biodi e si y Resea ch, Be lin, Ge many; 5Depa men o Ecology, Uni e si y o Alican e, (con inued on las page) CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS 1 o 7 F on Ecol En i on doi:10.1002/ ee.2725 N Rou a- Pascual e al. would likely limi he space o plausible and imaginable ajec- o ies. In con as , quali a i e scena ios allow o a mo e open explo a ion o plausible u u es (Lenzne e al.2019), and con- sequen ly a e ins umen al in in o ming en i onmen al policy and planning (Wiebe e al.2018). We explo ed quali a i e scena ios abou he u u e o bio- logical in asions in all Eu ope (no es ic ed o con inen al Eu ope o he Eu opean Union) and de eloped a obus man- agemen s a egy in he ace o c i ical unce ain ies using a pa icipa o y p ocess. To do so, we (1) downscaled ou global scena ios o biological in asions (Rou a- Pascual e al.2021) o he Eu opean le el, (2) de eloped an o e a ching managemen s a egy o biological in asions in Eu ope conside ing he challenges posed by each indi idual scena io, (3) examined he ela ionship be ween he di e en elemen s o he s a egy, and (4) assessed i s easibili y in he con ex o he downscaled sce- na ios. Due o COVID- 19 a el es ic ions and social dis- ancing ini ia i es ha discou aged o p e en ed in- pe son mee ings, he p ocess was conduc ed in wo online wo kshops (1–2 Ap and 20 Sep–2 Oc 2020) wi h expe - based in e nal discussions (AppendixS1: Panel S1 and Figu eS1). A o al o 35 indi iduals ep esen ing 12 Eu opean coun ies and h ee dis inc s akeholde g oups—namely, public adminis a ion, nongo e nmen al o ganiza ions/in e es g oups, and academia (a ull lis o pa icipan s is p o ided in Appendix S1: TableS1)—pa icipa ed in he p ocess. Fu u e scena ios o biological in asions To he bes o ou knowledge, quali a i e scena ios o bio- logical in asions ha e no ye been applied in a con inen al con ex o used o in o m policy. Recen ly, Rou a- Pascual e al. (2021) de eloped he i s global scena ios o biological in asions ha explo ed plausible u u e ajec o ies o biological in asions in he coming decades. These global scena ios—16 in all—we e clus e ed in o ou main con- as ing se s o u u es ha anged om high o low le els o biological in asions, accoun ed o unce ain ies in social– ecological de elopmen s conside ed o be c i ical o in asi e species on a global scale, and we e mo e ocused on biodi- e si y asse s han o he global change scena ios (eg sha ed socioeconomic pa hways; O’Neill e al.2017). O he 16 global scena ios, ou we e selec ed as being ep esen a i e o he ou main con as ing clus e s based on consensus o ing among wo kshop pa icipan s. Selec ed scena ios we e e amed and downscaled o he Eu opean le el, esul ing in he ollowing ou Eu opean scena ios: (1) Los (in) Eu ope (clus e A), (2) Big Tech Rules Eu ope (clus e B), (3) G een Local Go e nance (clus e C), and (4) Technological (Pseudo- ) Panacea (clus e D) (Figu e1; AppendixS1: Figu e S2); no e: all clus e s we e de i ed om Rou a- Pascual e al. (2021). The exac p ocedu e o downscaling he global scena ios o he Eu opean le el and he ela ionships be ween hese sce- na ios is desc ibed in g ea e de ail elsewhe e (Appendix S1: Panel S1; Pé ez- G anados e al. 2024). He e, we p esen a gene al o e iew o he ou selec ed scena ios and ou line how hey we e used o de elop he managemen s a egy o in asi e species and o assess he s a egy’s u u e easibili y. Managemen s a egy o in asi e species Wo kshop pa icipan s i s o mula ed a numbe o gene al isions (objec i es) o he u u e managemen o in asi e species in Eu ope. These isions we e collec ed and p esen ed o all 35 pa icipan s, each o whom cas o es o he isions hey deemed as he ou mos impo an . The ou isions ha ob ained he mos o es we e hen indi idually assigned o b eakou g oups, each o which was esponsible o de el- oping a p elimina y managemen s a egy o achie ing he assigned ision. The esul ing p elimina y managemen isions and s a egies we e combined in o a single managemen ision and s a egy (“be a e sion”) composed o mul iple goals and ac ions. The goals e e ed o speci ic managemen aspec s iden i ied as impo an by he wo kshop pa icipan s, and he ac ions desc ibed he s eps equi ed o each each goal. Pa icipan s hen iden i ied he s eng hs and weaknesses o he o e all managemen s a egy (“s ess es ”) and assessed which ac ions (and consequen ly goals) would likely be easible, pa ially easible, o un easible unde each scena io. On he basis o his assessmen , pa icipan s e ised he ac ions assessed as pa ially easible o un easible o imp o e easibili y ac oss all scena ios, wi h e isions subsequen ly in eg a ed in o he managemen s a egy (AppendixS1: Panel S1 and Figu eS1). The gene al ision ag eed upon by he pa icipan s was: “By 2050, he ha m ul impac s o in asi e species in Eu ope (EU membe s a es and non- EU s a es) a e subs an ially educed compa ed o oday”. This ision is in conco dance wi h he Kunming- Mon eal Global Biodi e si y F amewo k, which includes a a ge o educe he in oduc ion and es ablishmen o in asi e species and hei impac s (see Ta ge 6 in CBD[2022b]). Pa icipan s iden i ied 19 goals as ele an o achie ing his gene al ision, which we e g ouped in o ou ca ego ies: Policy (goals P1–6), Resea ch (goals R1–4), Public Awa eness (goals A1–3), and Biosecu i y (goals B1–6) (Figu e2; AppendixS1: Panel S2), highligh ing he mul i ac- e ed na u e o he managemen o in asi e species and he impo ance o conside ing elemen s complemen a y o di ec managemen ac ions. Se e al o hese goals ha e al eady been iden i ied as ele an o managing biological in asions (Pi ia e al.2017) and a e included in a amewo k o s anda dize managemen e minology (Robe son e al. 2020). To guide he long- e m managemen o biological in asions, we o gan- ized he goals in o a new amewo k ha conside s u u e unce ain ies. Managing in asi e species e icien ly equi es ha monizing policy and biosecu i y e o s ac oss Eu opean coun ies (Kelle e al. 2011) as well as globally (Hulme 2021). The implemen a ion o EU egula ion 1143/2014 on in asi e spe- cies ep esen s majo p og ess in his ega d, as i has helped 2 o 7 CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS 15409309, 2024, 4, Downloaded om h ps://esajou nals.onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ ee.2725 by Uni e sidad De Se illa, Wiley Online Lib a y on [29/05/2024]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License F on Ecol En i on doi:10.1002/ ee.2725 Fu u e managemen o biological in asions EU membe s a es o de elop and implemen managemen measu es o in asi e species included on he so- called Union lis (a lis o in asi e species o Union conce n), ollowing a common amewo k ha includes isk assessmen , su eil- lance, and epo ing. Howe e , coo dina ion be ween EU and non- EU coun ies emains lacking, and he e ec i eness o managemen ac ions is in luenced by limi ed unding and con- lic ing iews among manage s (eg whe he emo al o es ab- lished in asi e species is wa an ed; Blaalid e al. 2021), scien is s (Shackle on e al.2022), and he gene al public (eg ega ding he killing o in asi e animals; No oa e al.2017). Al hough an imp essi e amoun o knowledge and echnical in o ma ion has accumula ed h ough yea s o esea ch and managemen p ac ices (Scale a e al.2017; Dana e al.2019), p ac ical knowledge on managing in asi e species is s ill la gely disconnec ed om academic knowledge (Bayliss e al.2013; Muñoz- Mas e al.2021). Mo e esea ch on how o acili a e esponses o managemen needs and how o imp o e he a ailabili y and accessibili y o da a o biological in asions is needed (Ga o e al.2013). To be e align scien i ic esea ch wi h managemen needs and esol e con lic ing e hical iews, i is c ucial o imp o e communica ion be ween scien is s and s akeholde s, and o p omo e public engagemen and awa e- ness o acili a e knowledge ans e ac oss Eu ope. S a egy associa ions and key ecommenda ions In addi ion o de eloping he managemen s a egy, we ana- lyzed he ela ionships be ween he s a egy’s goals. We i s cha ac e ized he essence o each goal and hen e iewed all o he goals o iden i y any associa ions be ween hem. An associa ion was loosely de ined as any di ec ela ionship be ween wo goals, wi hou necessa ily implying causali y (see Appendix S1: Panel S1 o de ails). O e all, we ound high Figu e 1. Illus a ions o he ou u u e scena ios o biological in asions in Eu ope, and associa ed cha s depic ing he easibili y o he managemen s a egy unde each scena io as assessed by he wo kshop pa icipan s. Means (colo ed squa es) and s anda d e o s (e o ba s) indica e he a e age easibili y o he goals included in he s a egy (1 = easible, 0.5 = pa ially easible, 0 = un easible) as g ouped in o ou ca ego ies: Policy (P), Resea ch (R), Public Awa eness (A), and Biosecu i y (B) (Figu e2; AppendixS1: Panel S2). See AppendixS1: TableS2 o he easibili y o each indi idual goal unde he di e en scena io assump ions. Scena io illus a ions c ea ed by K Tseno a (Paidia Consul ing L d). CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS 3 o 7 15409309, 2024, 4, Downloaded om h ps://esajou nals.onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ ee.2725 by Uni e sidad De Se illa, Wiley Online Lib a y on [29/05/2024]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License F on Ecol En i on doi:10.1002/ ee.2725 N Rou a- Pascual e al. connec i i y among he ou ca ego ies o goals (Figu e 2c) and among he 19 goals o he managemen s a egy (Figu e 2b), wi h each goal associa ed wi h 13 o he o he 18 goals (72%) on a e age. This highligh s he in eg a i e na u e o he s a - egy and he mu ual dependency o i s componen s o ensu e i s e ec i eness. The goals wi h he highes numbe s o asso- cia ions we e: Eu opean Coope a ion (B1) and Communica ion S a egy (A1), ollowed by C i ical Tools (R3) and Moni o ing Sys em (B3) (Figu e 2b; o goal desc ip ions and designa ions, see also Appendix S1: Panel S2). These goals a e key elemen s o he implemen a ion o he o e all managemen s a egy, as eaching hem is also conduci e o he achie emen o many associa ed goals. The e o e, hey dese e pa icula a en ion. On he basis o hese ou “keys one” goals and u he c osscu ing aspec s eme ging om he managemen s a - egy, we iden i ied ou key ecommenda ions o managing biological in asions in Eu ope. They ep esen gene al undamen al p inciples ha lie a he co e o he s a egy and should guide i s implemen a ion. Recommenda ion 1: Eu opean coope a ion o a common and e ec i e biosecu i y egime Es ablishing a dedica ed Eu opean agency o an in e go e nmen al ag eemen u nished wi h a manda e and esou ces o egula e and o e see ac i i ies ela ed o he managemen o in asi e species in Eu ope will s eng hen coope a ion be ween s a es and s akeholde s ac oss Eu ope (see keys one goal B1; Appendix S1: Panel S2). I will also posi i ely a ec mos o he goals, imp o ing he e icacy o moni o ing and managing in asi e species. Such an ins i u ion should liaise wi h Eu opean and global in e - na ional o ganiza ions (eg Cen e o Ag i- cul u e and Bioscience In e na ional [CABI], CBD, Eu opean Alien Species In o ma ion Ne wo k [EASIN], Eu opean and Medi e - anean Plan P o ec ion O ganiza ion [EPPO]) o guidance on in asi e species policy, p i- o i iza ion, bes p ac ice, and managemen ha moniza ion be ween Eu opean coun ies (and including non- EU s a es). I should os e in e ac ions and syne gies ac oss sec o s, s ake- holde s, and biosecu i y egimes; conside egional pa icula i ies (eg ega ding di e - ences in managemen p io i ies); and in eg a e local knowledge and cul u es. Sha ed go e n- ance and pa icipa o y decision making shall s eng hen he legi imacy o ag eed- upon ac ions. Recommenda ion 2: c oss- sec o al communica ion and ou each s a egy Es ablishing a c oss- sec o al communica ion s a egy abou in - a si e species (including a dedica ed educa ion cu iculum o schools) and a cen alized, mul ilingual communica ion pla o m a he Eu opean le el (see keys one goal A1; Appendix S1: Panel S2) will help inc ease awa eness o causes and impac s o in asi e species and hei managemen , as well as acili a e knowledge ans e and collabo a ion. Goals in all ca ego ies o he managemen s a egy bene i om p inciples o good and anspa en communica ion, leading o an inc eased unde - s anding among s akeholde s and he gene al public, which is equi ed o sus ained suppo o managemen ac ions. Figu e 2. (a) Visual summa y o he managemen s a egy o in asi e species in Eu ope, con- sis ing o 19 goals g ouped in o ou ca ego ies: Policy (P), Resea ch (R), Public Awa eness (A), and Biosecu i y (B) (AppendixS1: Panel S2). (b and c) Visual ep esen a ion o he associa ions be ween goals and ca ego ies o goals. In (b), colo ed cells signi y an associa ion be ween wo goals, and diagonal numbe s indica e he o al numbe o associa ions each goal has wi h o he goals. In (c), he a ch’s wid h ha connec s wo pa s o he ci cle deno es he numbe o associa ions be ween goals o wo connec ed ca ego ies (o wi hin he same ca ego y). 4 o 7 CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS 15409309, 2024, 4, Downloaded om h ps://esajou nals.onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ ee.2725 by Uni e sidad De Se illa, Wiley Online Lib a y on [29/05/2024]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License F on Ecol En i on doi:10.1002/ ee.2725 Fu u e managemen o biological in asions Recommenda ion 3: da a s anda diza ion and managemen ools Rou inely iden i ying and add essing c i ical gaps in ools o impac / isk assessmen and managemen o in asi e spe- cies (see keys one goal R3; Appendix S1: Panel S2) will imp o e p oac i e and eac i e capaci y o manage (new) in ade s. This includes c ea ing and/o imp o ing s anda d p o ocols o assessing pa hways, impac s, and ulne abili y o p io i y a eas; concei ing adap i e app oaches o guide managemen decisions; and de eloping no el managemen echniques. These ools should be adop ed a he coun y and Eu opean le el (and i easible a he global le el as well). Fo example, he In e na ional Union o Conse a ion o Na u e (IUCN) ecen ly adop ed he En i onmen al Impac Classi ica ion o Alien Taxa (EICAT) as a ool o collec s anda dized impac da a (IUCN 2020). Se e al goals (eg R2 and R4; Appendix S1: Panel S2) also call o he es ablish- men o a Eu ope- ocused cen alized open- da a po al ha acili a es e icien eco ding, s o ing, s anda diza ion, upda - ing, pee - e iewing, and accessibili y o all in o ma ion ela ed o in asi e species and hei managemen in Eu ope. EASIN may p o ide a use ul ounda ion o his pla o m. No el au oma ed app oaches a e needed o managing and analyzing big da ase s esul ing om such da a agg ega ion. Many aspec s o his ecommenda ion a e echoed in he CBD COP15 Decision ega ding in asi e species (see Annex 5 in CBD [2022a]), which was ecen ly adop ed in connec ion wi h he Kunming- Mon eal Global Biodi e si y F amewo k (CBD 2022b). Recommenda ion 4: moni o ing, assessmen , and managemen p io i ies Es ablishing a comp ehensi e egime o moni o ing and assessing in asi e species a he Eu opean and coun y le els (see keys one goal B3; Appendix S1: Panel S2) will imp o e he capaci y o ea ly de ec ion and apid esponse. Sound and comp ehensi e knowledge o he pas , cu en , and u u e ci cums ances o he in oduc ion, es ablishmen , and sp ead o in asi e species, as well as hei (ac ual and po en ial) impac s and success o pas managemen a emp s, is a p e- equisi e o e ec i e managemen and o es ablishing man- agemen p io i ies a di e en le els (ie species, si es, and pa hways). Policy egula ions (eg he Union lis o in asi e species in Regula ion 1143/2014) a e use ul o de ining legally binding p io i ies (eg goals P4–P6; Appendix S1: Panel S2), bu p io i ies should also be lexible and upda able based on, o ins ance, new da a ob ained by manage s (eg goals B4–B6; AppendixS1: Panel S2), o acili a e apid adap a ion o changing condi ions. S a egy easibili y The sugges ions gene a ed om he s ess- es ing p ocess unde he ou di e en scena ios o biological in asions we e inco po a ed in o he goals and ac ions o he man- agemen s a egy. In an online exe cise a e he wo kshops, pa icipan s e isi ed he easibili y assessmen gi en du ing he s ess es and epea ed he assessmen p ocess o he e isi ed, inal ac ions. Fo g aphical pu poses, we con e ed he assessmen s assigned o each ac ion o he s a egy in o a nume ical alue ( easible ac ion = 1; pa ially easible ac ion = 0.5; un easible ac ion = 0) and a e aged hese alues a he goal le el (Appendix S1: Panel S1). To isualize di e - gences among scena ios, we displayed he means o he goals’ a e aged alues a he ca ego y le el (Figu e1). The esul s indica ed ha some u u e scena ios a e mo e challenging han o he s o he managemen o in asi e species (Figu e1; AppendixS1: Figu eS2). Scena ios wi h high le els o echnological de elopmen , public en i onmen al awa eness, and e ec i eness o policies on in asi e species ha encou age esea ch and biosecu i y (eg Technological [Pseudo- ]Panacea) o e a o able condi ions o implemen ing he managemen s a egy ac oss all goals (AppendixS1: TableS2), whe eas dis up- i e scena ios, such as hose concei ing an isola ionis Eu ope (eg Los [in] Eu ope), a e mo e p oblema ic o managemen s a egy implemen a ion. In pa icula , goals ha equi e coo di- na ion ac oss Eu ope, such as policy- ela ed goals and he es ab- lishmen o a Eu opean biosecu i y egime (B1, Eu opean Coope a ion) and a Communica ion S a egy (A1), will be ex emely di icul o achie e unde his scena io (AppendixS1: TableS2). Be ween hese wo ex emes, he e a e scena ios wi h an in e media e easibili y o he managemen goals (and ca ego- ies o goals). Some o hese scena ios include p ominen le els o economic powe and echnology ha s imula e esea ch and policy de elopmen on in asi e species bu ha e poo public awa eness and biosecu i y measu es (eg Big Tech Rules Eu ope). The easibili y o o he scena ios is mo e balanced ac oss managemen goals and hei ca ego ies, wi h echnolog- ical de iciencies being o se (a leas o some ex en ) by g ea e public awa eness (eg G een Local Go e nance). Fo hese in e media e scena ios, mos goals wi hin he biosecu i y ca e- go y (goals B3–6) had a medium le el o easibili y, sugges ing ha ou ision would only be pa ially achie able (AppendixS1: TableS2). Conclusions E ec i ely educing he impac s o biological in asions o e he long e m will equi e conside a ion o he ange o social– ecological de elopmen s ha in luence hem. Ou s a egy o managing in asi e species in Eu ope consis s o 19 closely in e connec ed goals ela ing o policy, esea ch, public awa e- ness, and biosecu i y. Gi en he unce ain ies o he u u e, i is c ucial o assess he easibili y o hese goals and hei associa ed ac ions unde di e en u u e scena ios co e ing a b oad ange o social, economic, and ecological ajec o ies. Ou esea ch e eals how he easibili y o speci ic managemen goals a ies unde di e en scena ios. Fo example, scena ios CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS 5 o 7 15409309, 2024, 4, Downloaded om h ps://esajou nals.onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ ee.2725 by Uni e sidad De Se illa, Wiley Online Lib a y on [29/05/2024]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License F on Ecol En i on doi:10.1002/ ee.2725 N Rou a- Pascual e al. wi h low echnological de elopmen , weak public en i onmen al awa eness, and ine ec i e policies will educe he easibili y o he managemen s a egy, he eby making i less likely ha he impac s o in asi e species will be subs an ially educed by 2050. Fu he mo e, ou esul s highligh ou in e ela ed key ec- ommenda ions ha any s a egy aimed o p e en and mi iga e he impac s o in asi e species in Eu ope should p io i ize. These include (1) p omo ing coope a ion be ween coun ies and s akeholde s a he Eu opean le el, (2) os e ing commu- nica ion and ou each ac oss sec o s, (3) s anda dizing da a and de eloping ools in suppo o managemen , and (4) mon- i o ing in asi e species e icien ly and p io i izing manage- men acco dingly. Al hough none o hese ecommenda ions alone will su ice, hey ep esen key elemen s ha can s uc- u e a long- e m s a egy o managing biological in asions a he Eu opean le el. In sho , i is ime o shi he ocus o bio- logical in asion managemen in Eu ope and elsewhe e owa d a mo e in eg a ed pe spec i e ha akes in o accoun di e en sec o s and coun ies, and explici ly accoun s o plausible u u e scena ios. Acknowledgemen s This esea ch was unded h ough he 2017–2018 Belmon Fo um and Biodi ERsA join call o esea ch p oposals, unde he Biodi Scen ERA- Ne COFUND p og am, and wi h he unding o ganiza ions Agencia Es a al de In es- igación (AEI), Bundesminis e ium ü Bildung und Fo schung (BMBF), and Aus ian Science Fund (FWF) (g an s AEI PCI2018- 092966 [NR- P, CP- G, CG- L]/AEI PCI2018- 092939 [MV]/AEI PCI2018- 092986 [BG]/BMBF p ojec s 16LC1803A and 16LC1807B [JMJ, W- CS]/BMBF 01LC1807A [HS]/FWF p ojec 4011- B32 [FE, GL, BLenzne ]) and Swiss Na ional Science Founda ion (g an 31BD30_184114 [SB]). CP- G acknowledges suppo om Minis e io de Educación y Fo mación P o esional h ough he Bea iz Galindo Fellowship (Bea iz Galindo – Con oca o ia 2020). Open Access unding p o ided hanks o he CRUE- CSIC ag ee- men wi h Wiley. We g ea ly app ecia e he pa icipa ion o S Fle a is, I Kühn, and J P iess in he wo kshops, and he scena io illus a ions by K Tseno a. 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Suppo ing In o ma ion Addi ional ma e ial can be ound online a h p://onlineli- b a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ ee.2725/suppin o Alican e, Spain; 6Cope nicus Ins i u e o Sus ainable De elopmen , Uni e si y o U ech , U ech , he Ne he lands; 7S ockholm Resilience Cen e, S ockholm Uni e si y, S ockholm, Sweden; 8Di ision o This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed. BioIn asions, Global Change & Mac oecology, Depa men o Bo any and Biodi e si y Resea ch, Uni e si y o Vienna, Vienna, Aus ia; 9Ins i u e o Ecology and E olu ion, Uni e si y o Edinbu gh, Edinbu gh, UK; 10Resea ch Ins i u e o Na u e and Fo es , B ussels, Belgium; 11Depa men o Zoology, Uni e si y o Camb idge, Camb idge, UK; 12BioRISC, S Ca ha ine’s College, Uni e si y o Camb idge, Camb idge, UK; 13Depa men o Biology, Uni e si y o F ibou g, F ibou g, Swi ze land; 14Es ación Biológica de Doñana, Se ille, Spain; 15Depa men o Plan Biology and Ecology, Uni e si y o Se ille, Se ille, Spain; 16CREAF, Bella e a, Spain; 17CSIC, Ce danyola del Vallès, Spain; 18CTFC, Solsona, Spain; 19P epa edness and Resilience Depa men , Wo ld O ganisa ion o Animal Heal h, Pa is, F ance; 20Ins i u o Pi enaico de Ecología, CSIC, Za agoza, Spain; 21Ins i u e o En i onmen al P o ec ion and Resea ch (ISPRA), Rome, I aly; 22Chai IUCN/SSC In asi e Species Specialis G oup, Rome, I aly; 23Depa men o Communi y Ecology, Helmhol z Cen e o En i onmen al Resea ch – UFZ, Halle, Ge many; 24Depa men o Fo es Enginee ing, Dend oda Lab – ERSAF, Uni e si y o Có doba, Có doba, Spain; 25CABI, Egham, UK; 26Ins i u e o E olu iona y Biology and En i onmen al S udies, Uni e si y o Zu ich, Zu ich, Swi ze land; 27Ins i u e o En i onmen and Na u e, Minis y o Economy and Sus ainable De elopmen , Zag eb, C oa ia; 28The Key Labo a o y o Ma icul u e, Minis y o Educa ion, College o Fishe ies, Ocean Uni e si y o China, Qingdao, China; 29Ins i u e o Hyd obiology, Chinese Academy o Sciences, Wuhan, China; 30Depa men o Bo any, Uni e si y o Innsb uck, Innsb uck, Aus ia; 31EUROPARC Fede a ion, Ba celona, Spain; 32En i onmen Agency Aus ia, Vienna, Aus ia; 33Modelling, E idence and Policy G oup, Newcas le Uni e si y, Newcas le upon Tyne, UK; 34UK Cen e o Ecology and Hyd ology, Walling o d, UK; 35Senckenbe g Biodi e si y and Clima e Resea ch Cen e, F ank u , Ge many; 36Ins i u e o Na u e Conse a ion, Polish Academy o Sciences, K aków, Poland; 37Julius Kühn- Ins i u e, Ins i u e o Na ional and In e na ional Plan Heal h, B aunschweig, Ge many; 38Eu opean and Medi e anean Plan P o ec ion O ganiza ion, Pa is, F ance; 39Depa men o Biology, McGill Uni e si y, Mon eal, Canada; † hese au ho s con ibu ed equally o his wo k. CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS 7 o 7 15409309, 2024, 4, Downloaded om h ps://esajou nals.onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ ee.2725 by Uni e sidad De Se illa, Wiley Online Lib a y on [29/05/2024]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License