Institutional Adaptation to Changing Risk of Water Scarcity in the Lower Guadalquivir Basin

C. GIANSANTE,* M. AGUILAR,* L. BABIANO,** A. GARRIDO,*** A. G6MEZ,*** E. IGLESIAS,*** W. LISE,*** L. MORAL,* B. PEDREGAL* Ins i u ional Adap a ion o Changing Risk o Wa e Sca ci y in he Lowe Guadalqui i Basin* ABSTRACT His o ically, he Spanish wa e managemen model's p edominan goal has been esou ce augmen a ion. This mindse has had impo an consequences o he sys em's capaci y o cope wi h d ough s. I has impac ed he sys em's o e all ulne abili y, he discou se o sca ci y, he concep ualisa ion o isk, and he s akeholde s' in e es s and hei app oach o isk. The aim o his a icle is o p esen he adi ional hyd aulic pa adigm, and i s cu en c isis and implica ions o p esen and iu u e isk managemen , and o explo e s akeholde and ins i u ional eac ions and adap a ion o changing isk scena ios. The adap a ion p ocess will be amed wi hin he wide con ex o mac o- ends, such as ma ke isa ion and e-scaling o ins i u ions and global wa ming. INTRODUCTION TO DROUGHT AND SPANISH SOCIETY This a icle will explo e he managemen o wa e sca ci y and d ough in he Lowe Guadalqui i Basin wi hin he b oade amewo k o he socie al and ins i u ional esponses o clima e change and o he inc eased possibili y o ex eme hyd ological e en s in Eu ope. The i s * Depa men o Human Geog aphy, Facul ad de Geog a a e His o ia, Uni e si y o Se ille, Spain; e-mail: [email p o ec ed]. ** Depa men o An h opology, Facul ad de Geog a ia e His o ia, Uni e si y o Se ille, Spain. *** Depa men o Ag icul u al Economics, E.T.S. Ingenie os Ag 6nomos, Uni e sidad Poli cnica de Mad id, Spain. * Ins i u e o En i onmen al S udies (IES), V ije Uni e si ei , Ams e dam * This pape is pa o he esea ch p ojec Socie al and Ins i u ional Responses o Clima e Change and Clima ic Haza ds: Managing Flood and D ough Risks (SIRCH), which has been unded by he En i onmen and Cliam e Change Resea ch P og amme o he Eu opean Commission (Con ac no. ENV4-CT97-0447). Due o he uniquely Eu opean loca ion o some o he sou ces ci ed in his a icle, he Na u al Resou ces Jou nal was no in a posi ion o e i y some o he sou ces ci ed. None heless, i is hough ha he in o ma ion and pe spec i es will be o in e es o he eade and o impo ance in he ongoing dialogue ega ding ansbounda y esou ces. Fo ques ions ega ding he a icles o he sou ce ma e ials, please con ac he au ho s. NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL impo an ac o o no e is he ma ked spa ial and empo al clima ic a iabili y o he Spanish clima e. In Spain, he adi ional wa e manage- men model, "hyd aulic pa adigm," has been esou ce-o ien ed. 1 As a esul , he o e all spa ial de elopmen model o he coun y, including ag icul u al, u ban, and indus ial sec o s, is based on he social econs uc- ion o he wa e en i onmen .2 This model has had impo an consequences o he wa e sys em's capaci y o cope wi h isk. I has impac ed he sys em's o e all ulne abili y, he discou se o sca ci y, he concep uali- sa ion o isk, and he s akeholde s' in e es s and app oaches o isk. The sys em has become mo e ulne able o , a bes , main ained i s le el o ulne abili y a e each d ough episode in he pas ew decades. 3 The cu en s a egy, which a ou s esou ce augmen a ion, has caused he inc eased ulne abili y. Encou aged by he misplaced pe cep ion o g ea e secu i y, abundance, and access, wa e "demand" has isen as addi ional wa e supply has been made a ailable. 4 The socio-economic impac s o he 1990's d ough demons a e he s ain on he wa e sys em. Se e al million u ban Andalusian consume s expe ienced se ice cu s o a maximum o 12 hou s pe day and housands o i iga ion a me s wen wi hou any i iga ion wa e o h ee consecu i e yea s. 5 The lack o i iga ion wa e caused di ec losses o 3 o 4.2 billion Eu os and also caused losses o he 20,000 a m wo ke s who los hei jobs. 6 Due, in pa , o he wa e c isis b ough on by he 1990's d ough , cu en wa e managemen p ac ices ha e been in ensely deba ed o e he las decade. Fu he mo e, he idea ha he wa e sys em is in c isis is gaining accep ance among bo h wa e manage s and s akeholde s. 7 Bu , he adi ional pa adigm s ill has ins i u ional ine ia and social suppo behind i . The ension be ween he iew ha he wa e sys em is in c isis and he ins i u ional ine ia and s ead as social suppo has esul ed in an "uns able s agna ion" in Spain's wa e policy.' This a icle examines he cu en wa e managemen pa adigm's abili y, o cope wi h p esen and u u e isks and explo es he p ocess o 1. Leand o del Mo al & Da id Sau , Changing Cou se: Wa e Policy in Spain, THE ENVIRONMENT, 12-15, July-Aug. 1999. 2. Fo he de ini ion o social cons uc ion o he wa e en i onmen , see E ik Swyngedouw, Mode ni y and Hyb idi y: The P oduc ion o Na u e: Wa e and Mode nisa ion in Spain 97-112 (1997) (unpublished epo , on ile wi h au ho s). 3. Monica Aguila e al., D ough Risk in he Lowe Guadalqui i Basin: Social and Ins i u ional Responses o Clima e Change and Clima ic Haza ds, in SIRCH PROJECT FINAL REPORT (Feb. 2001). 4. Id. 5. EMASESA, CRONICA DE UNA SEQUJA 1992-1995 49-50 (1997). 6. Id. a 105. 7. Aguila e al., sup a no e 3, a 5.1. 8. Id. a ch. 3. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION ins i u ional adap a ion o changing isk scena ios. We es ed he adi ional pa adigm's abili y o adap by modelling di e en isk scena ios. These scena ios inco po a ed he possible impac s o clima e change on he o e all a ailabili y o wa e esou ces and on he equency o ex eme e en s. 9 They also inco po a e o he mac o ends ha gene a e u u e unce ain y."° THE INSTITUTIONAL LANDSCAPE Ins i u ions, p e iously de ined as egula ised pa e ns o beha - iou ha can be o mal, in o mal, s a egic, o ope a ional," a e di icul o cap u e because o he di icul y o de ining clea bounda ies and sepa a ing di e en ope a ional le els a he global, na ional, egional, i e basin, and local le els.' 2 The e o e, he desc ip ion o wa e managemen ins i u ions in his sec ion will no be sys ema ic. Ins ead, we will p o ide an ins i u- ional landscape upon which i will be possible o obse e he p ocess o ins i u ional adap a ion and change. A he o mal, legal ins i u ional le el, he co ne s one o Spanish wa e policy is he 1985 Wa e Ac , which es ablished he cu en wa e managemen amewo k and con e ed a key ole o hyd ological planning. 3 The wo main aspec s o his legisla ion a e he wa e planning amewo k and he inancial and economic public wa e amewo k. The Wa e Planning F amewo k The main ins umen s o wa e managemen and planning es ablished by he 1985 Wa e Ac a e he na ional wa e plan, Plan Hid ol6gico Nacional (PHN), and he i e basin wa e plans, Planes Hid ol6gicos de Cuenca (PHCs), o Spain's 17 i e basins. 4 Th ough he echnical se ices o he Minis y o En i onmen , Depa men o Wa e 9. The Spanish clima e change deba e is s ill in an emb yonic s age, bu , i i has me i , i s implica ions o Spain's wa e sys em could be eno mous. F ancisco J. Ayala-Ca cedo, De la poli ica hid dulica a la poli ica de agues sos enible, 90 TEcNOAMBIENTE 5-9 (1999). 10. Leand o del Mo al e al., Global ends and managemen o clima ic wa e isks, in SIRCH FINAL REPORT, sup a no e 8, a ch. 14. 11. This means ha ins i u ions/ ules o beha iou can in luence he gene al s a egy/pe spec i e ha should be adop ed o ackle a p oblem (in his pa icula case, na u al esou ces managemen ) o , al e na i ely, can manda e he ope a ional ules ha should be applied. 12. See gene ally SIRCH, Socie al and Ins i u ional Responses o Clima e Change and Clima ic Haza ds: Managing Changing Flood and D ough Risk (Ka en Bakke ed., 1998). Ins i u ions can also be desc ibed as egula ised pa e s o beha iou , which a e socially cons uc ed, bo h o mal and in o mal, and ela i ely s able. 13. Ley De Aguas, B.O.E., 1985, 189. 14. Id. a . 38.2, 71.1. Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL and Coas s, he cen al go e nmen is in cha ge o d awing up he na ional hyd ological plan. The i e basin wa e plans (PHCs) a e d a ed by he i e basin au ho i ies. Acco ding o wa e legisla ion, he main goals o hese documen s a e o o ecas u u e wa e demands, o design plans o mee hose demands (gene ally en and wen y-yea planning ho izons a e used), as well as o es ablish quali a i e objec i es o he basin's su ace wa e . 15 The legal amewo k also asse s ha Spain's wa e policy should coo dina e wi h o he planning policies ha may a ec hyd ological plans." The o he majo planning policies ha a ec wa e managemen plans a e ag icul u al policy 7 and ene gy policy." 8 The legal amewo k also equi es ha na ional wa e policy no only coo dina e wi h bu mus be compa ible wi h en i onmen al conse a ion policies. 9 The p ocess o d a ing, discussing, and app o ing na ional and egional i e basin wa e plans is an ex emely long, complex, and con inuous p ocess. A i s d a o he na ional wa e plan was p esen ed in Ap il 1993.20 This d a was p emised on he no ion ha he na ional hyd ological imbalance be ween wa e - ich and wa e -poo egions should be co ec ed and p oposed e-dis ibu ing wa e esou ces be ween basins ia a na ional wa e g id, Sis ema In eg ado de Equilib io Hid aulico Nacional (SIEHNA). 1 The 1993 d a also p ojec ed conside able inc eases in wa e demand based on a p ojec ed inc ease in i iga ion su ace o 600,000 ha by 2012. 22 This d a was widely c i icized by a ious adminis a i e sec o s and by he public.' In addi ion o he nume ous and a ied en i onmen al objec ions, he Minis y o Finance c i icised he plan o i s lack o inancial igou and o i s ailu e o coo dina e wi h ela ed sec o s. 24 Ag icul u al 15. Real Dec e o de 29 de Julio, a .79.1, R.C.L., 1988,927. 16. Id. a . 95; Ley De Aguas, B.O.E., 1985, 189, a . 38.4. 17. Th ough he egional compe ence wi hin he amewo k o he na ional economic objec i es and he EU Common Ag icul u al Policy (CAP). 18. The use o la ge olumes o wa e o ene gy p oduc ion pu poses (hyd opowe dams and cooling sys ems) can gene a e con lic s wi h o he use sec o s, such as i iga ion and u ban supply. 19. Ley De Aguas, B.O.E., 1985, 189, a . 40(d). 20. MINISTERIO DE OBRAS POBLICAS Y TRANSPORTES, PLAN HIDROLOGIcO NACIONAL MEMORIA (1993). 21. Id. a 100-10. 22. 46 pe cen in domes ic supply, 14 pe cen in i iga ion ag icul u e and 25 pe cen in indus y o he yea 2012. 23. Minis e io de Medio Ambien e, Lib o Blanco del Agua 19-20, a h p://www.mma.es/ echid/lib ojb/sin esis.pd (Dec. 4, 1998);VIC OR P aR-DIAZ ET AL., POLITICA Y ECONOMIA DEL AGUA EN ESPA4A 42-51 (1996). 24. P REz-DIAZ E AL., sup a no e 23, a 57. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION expe s, who c i icized he Plan, we e also conce ned because his d a had comple ely o e looked a ious mac o-economic ac o s such as he Gene al Ag eemen on Ta i s and T ade (GATT) ea y.' A he same ime, egional go e nmen s in "wa e de ici " i e basins we e clamou ing o highe ans e olumes. 26 Meanwhile, ou c y in wa e - ich i e basins agains he ans e plan g ew. In ac , one o he "wa e - ich" egions, A ag6n, whe e mos o he ese oi s o he Py enean moun ainous egion o he na ionwide wa e ans e sys em would be loca ed, has campaigned igo ously agains he PHN p ojec . As a esul o he ex ensi e c i icism, he Minis y o Public Wo ks and T anspo a ion p epa ed a scena ios analysis documen ha sligh ly modi ied he c i e ia o u u e wa e demand scena ios while main aining he gene al p io i ies o he 1993 d a . 27 Mos impo an ly, he Spanish Pa liamen decided ha app o al o he PHN should be condi ioned on he app o al o bo h a na ional i iga ion plan and on all he i e basins' hyd ological plans.' The yea s ollowing he publica ion o hese wo o icial documen s we e cha ac e ised by ins abili y and s agna ion. Du ing his pe iod, which coincided wi h he long and se e e 1991-1995 d ough , he wa e deba e became a high p o ile poli ical issue.' The planning p ocess had eached an impasse. 3 The main opposi ion pa y a he ime, he Pa ido Popula (PP), blamed he planning impasse on he PSOE's 3' inapp op ia e wa e managemen app oach?2 In Ap il 1996, a new go e nmen , led by he conse a i e opposi ion pa y, Pa ido Popula , was elec ed wi h high expec a ions.' Rep esen a i es o he newly c ea ed Minis y o he En i onmen , MIMAM, p omised apid app o al o he PHN du ing hei e m. The mechanism o he app o al was supposed o be enhanced 25. Id. 26. See, o example, discussion o he Andalucia egional go e nmen 's demands o highe ans e olumes in Joan Co omina , El Plan Hid ol6gico Nacional en Andalucia y la Di ec i e Ma co sob e poli ica deaguas in NUNOGRANDE, PEDRO ARROJO, &JAViERMARTINEZGIL, IL CONGRESO IeugIco SOBRE PLANIFICAION Y GESTION DE AGUAS 313-18 (2000), a ailable a www.us.es/cibe ico. 27. SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE POL TcA TERRITORIAL Y OBRAS POBUCAS, MINs KO DE OBRAS POBuCAS, TRANSPORTEYMEDIOAMBIENTE, PLAN HIDROLOGIcONACIONAL, ANALISISDE EscENARIos (1994). This documen main ained he no ion o na ional hyd ological imbalance, SIEHNA, and he p io i y gi en o la ge-scale in as uc u e e sus demand managemen and con ol and wa e sa ing. 28. Minis e io de Medio Ambien e, sup a no e 23, a 410. 29. VICTOR P z-D Az ET AL, sup a no e 23, a 59-67. 30. Id. a 69-71. 31. The PSOE is he Spanish socialis pa y. 32. Bo el modi ica el Plan Hid ol6gico an e las c i icas a An ep oyec o: El PP exige 1a e i ada del p oyec o, EL PAIS, Ma . 23, 1994. 33. El gobie no desliza en el BOE sin deba e un miniplan hid ol gico de 216.000 millones, EL PAIS, Sep . 8, 1998, a 22. Summe 20021 NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL dialogue.' The enhanced dialogue was o be suppo ed by a whi e pape on wa e . The whi e pape would be designed o each consensus on wha c i e ia and p io i ies should guide he subsequen elabo a ion o wa e plans.' Bu , a he same ime, he Pa ido Popula was a guing ha he e y na u e o he wa e -planning amewo k needed o become mo e lexible o allow o mo e oom o economic managemen o he esou ce. 6 The Pa ido Popula ne e implemen ed he o me app oach.' In Augus 1998, be o e he whi e pape on wa e was published' and be o e he na ional i iga ion plan was adop ed," he go e nmen app o ed each and e e y i e basin wa e plan.' As app o ed, he plans we e i ually he same as he d a s om he ea ly 1990s. 1 ' The new go e nmen jus i ied i s su p ising decision by cha ac e izing he wa e plans as non-binding lis s o possible p ojec s.' 2 This cha ac e iza ion implied a signi ican change in he ole o hyd ological planning, a change unsuppo ed by any legisla i e e o m. A ew mon hs la e , in Feb ua y 2000, he Minis y o Ag icul u e, Food and Fishe ies, MAPYA, abled he na ional i iga ion plan a e a b ie ound o in o mal con ac s and consul a ion wi h he egions' and use s' associa ions.' Since he wa e basin plans we e app o ed, he e has been a s iking dec ease in planned i iga ion su ace: he 1998 i e basin wa e plans en isioned 1,200,000 ha o new i iga ion su ace, bu he na ional i iga ion plan o 2000 educed his o 250,000 ha o new i iga ion su ace 34. Bo el modi ica el Plan Hid oldgico an e las c icas al An ep oyec o: El PP exige la e i ada del p oyec o, sup a no e 32. 35. Id. 36. Id. 37. Id. 38. The Whi e Pape on Wa e , ha was only eleased by he Minis y o he En i onmen (MIMAM) a he end o he same yea (Decembe 1998) a e an ex ensi e concep ual and his o ical e ision, s ill held as alid he high p ojec ions o u u e i iga ion wa e demand and su aces included in p e ious wa e planning documen s. In addi ion, i ailed o p o oke he announced open and public deba e, especially because i came oo la e o be eally ele an in he discussion on he i e basin wa e plans. See gene ally MINSTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE, LIBRO BLANCO DEL AGUA EN ESPAIRA (1998). 39. Ac ually, a i s Na ional I iga ion Plan was abled by he o me go e nmen in Feb ua y 1996 and did no become ope a ional due o he change in go e nmen in sp ing o 1996. 40. Real Dec e o 1664, July 24,1998. 41. They had been p e iously discussed and endo sed by he Na ional Wa e Council (CNA) in Ap il 1998, wi h he only nega i e o es om he ep esen a i es o he en i onmen al o ganisa ions. 42. Pe sonal communica ion wi h Josd Luis Blanco, Wa e S a e Sec e a y (Ma . 1999). 43. This documen was mean o comply wi h he Ma ch 22,1994, decision o he Spanish Pa liamen , which u ged he go e nmen o p esen a Na ional I iga ion Plan be o e he Na ional Hyd ological Plan could be app o ed, al hough he discussion in Pa liamen occu ed a e he app o al o he i e basin wa e plans. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION by 2008." Fu he mo e, he new 250,000 ha igu e includes 138,365 ha o p e iously planned and pa ially implemen ed i iga ion su aces ( egadios en ejecuci6n); 79,426 ha o i iga ion su aces jus i ied on social g ounds ( egad os socials); and 25,000 ha o p i a e ini ia i e i iga ion su aces." The Minis y o En i onmen abled a new d a o he PHN in Sep embe 2000. This d a had subs an ially educed he planned olume o in e -basin ans e s and concen a ed he wa e ans e bu den on one "dono " basin, he Eb o i e basin.' The .1993 d a o he na ional wa e plan had o iginally en isioned ana ion-wide in e -basin ans e ne wo k ha would ha e ans e ed a o al o 3768 Mm 3. The 2000 PHN d a elimina es ans e s om he Tagus and Dou o basins, which a e sha ed wi h Po ugal, o Medi e anean basins. 47 The only ans e he 2000 PHN d a con empla es would be om he Eb o i e basin o he Medi e anean basins. 4 Acco ding o he e ms o he 2000 PHN, he Eb o basin would ha e o ans e 200 Mm 3 o he Ca alonia basin, 400 Mm 3 o he Segu a basin, 300 Mm 3 o he Ji ca basin, and 100 Mm 3 o he Su basin, mos no ably o he Alme ia i iga ion su aces. 49 The o al ans e ed olume in he 2000 PHN is jus o e hal o he ans e olume se ou in he 1993 d a .' E en so, he p oposal has eopened old in e - egional wounds and has a oused conside able poli ical opposi ion om he egional go e nmen o A ag6n, he Eb o basin's la ges egion." The Economic F amewo k o Spain's Wa e Policy The economic amewo k o Spain's wa e policy has adi ionally been based on wo main ea u es: a gene ous subsidy sys em and a wa e igh s egime. The subsidy sys em has allowed he p oli e a ion o ex ensi e s a e- unded wa e egula ion schemes and he wa e igh s egime equi es 44. Minis y o Ag icul u e, Food and Fishe ies, Plan Nacional de Regad os 2000, a h p://www.mapya.es/indexa/busca.asp?si io=h p%3a2 %2 www2emapya%2ees%2 desa %2 pags%2 pn %2 ega%2eh m (las isi ed Oc . 28,2002). 45. Id. 46. Minis y o En i onmen , 2000, a h p://www.mma.es/ ec-hid/plan._hid o/ planhid o.h m. 47. Id. 48. Id. 49. Id. 50. The 1993 d a planned on ans e ing 1855 Mm3, 1.5 million ac e- ee , o wa e o wa e -poo basins, see MINIS ERUO DE OBRAS PO UCAS Y TRANSPORTE, sup a no e 20, he new d a only plans o ans e 1000 Mm 3, 0.81 million ac e- ee , o wa e solely om he Eb o basin. See Minis y o En i onmen , sup a no e 46, a 102-08. 51. A ag6n lide 6 el "no" al ans ase que inundd la Pue a del Sol, EL HERALDO DE ARAGON, Ma . 12,2001, a ailable a h p://www.he aldo.es. Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL [Vol. 42 all use s o he public wa e domain 52 o apply o a license o use wa e ha go e ns he e ms o ha use. The i e basin au ho i y' can g an licenses o a maximum o 75 yea s and can only g an licenses o he uses se ou in he licensing documen .5 Bo h he subsidizing and he licensing sys em ha e been deba ed and pa ially e ised in ecen yea s. 55 T adi ionally, Spanish economic wa e egula ion has been in line wi h he p inciples o lexible supply and he belie ha gene ous s a e subsidies we e necessa y o o e come he se ious economic and social de ici s a ec ing Spain a he beginning o his cen u y.' The 1985 Wa e Ac es ablished s o age cha ges and a es, he canon de egulaci6n y a i as. 57 The income om hese ees is designed o help he go e nmen eco e he cos o i s in es men s on dams and o he hyd ological wo ks, mainly canals,' as well as o co e hei ope a ion and main enance cos s s9 Despi e a emp s o e ise he old sys em o subsidies, he 1985 Wa e Ac only succeeded in main aining i ; he end esul o he cha ges and a es is o subsidise bulk wa e by abou 40 pe cen o o al in es men .' In gene al, hese cha ges ha e been ha d o apply and di icul o collec . 61 Fu he mo e, he unds hey gene a e a e mani es ly insu icien 52. The 1985 Wa e Ac es ablished ha all enewable eshwa e --bo h su ace and g oundwa e -is pa o he public domain. 53. The i e basin au ho i y g an s licences based on a gene al o de o p e e ence es ablished by he Wa e Law: public supply (including indus ies connec ed o municipal supply ne wo ks); i iga ion and ag icul u al uses; elec ic supply; o he indus ial uses; ish a ming; ec ea ional uses; na iga ion and i e anspo ; and o he uses. 54. Ley De Aguas, B.O.E., 1985,189, a . 57.4. 55. 1999 Wa e Ac , B.O.E., 1999,298. 56. The co ne s one o his policy was he La ge Hyd aulic Wo ks Ac o 7 July 1911, which de ined ou possible a enues o ca ying ou hyd aulic wo ks: (1) execu ion by he p i a e sec o , wi h a s a e subsidy o up o 30 pe cen o he cos o la ge-scale hyd aulic wo ks in addi ion o a p emium paymen (by he s a e) "pe li e pe second" o i iga ion wa e used; (2) execu ion by associa ions o i iga o s, wi h a subsidy o up o 50 pe cen o he cos ; (3) execu ion by he s a e, wi h he suppo o he i iga o s a ec ed, wi h a subsidy o up o 50 pe cen and low in e es loans o up o 40 pe cen (mos common choice); (4) execu ed en i ely by he s a e. 57. In addi ion, he 1985 Wa e Ac also es ablished he wa e domain occupa ion cha ge (candn de occupacidn) o he physical occupa ion o pa s o he wa e domain ( i e beds and banks) and he wa e pollu ion cha ge (candn de e ido) o he p o ec ion o hose wa e cou ses ecei ing pollu ing discha ges. 58. Ley De Aguas, B.O.E., 1985, 189, a . 106.1 (canon de egulaci6n). 59. Id., a . 106.2 ( a i as de u ilizaci6n). 60. All wa e acili ies supplied by wa e wo ks (dams, channels, e c.) a e buil and un wi h public subsidies. This subsidy ises o 90 pe cen when he condi ions o he Ac o 1911 a e applied. "Bulk wa e " e e s o all wa e ha is anspo ed in la ge-scale ne wo ks, be o e i en e s he end-use dis ibu ion ne wo ks. In he case o d inking wa e , his is be o e i is ea ed o d inking wa e pu poses. 61. Minis y o he En i onmen , 1998, sup a no e 38, a 556. INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION o co e he amo ized cos o in es men in and ope a ion o hyd aulic sys ems. 2 In addi ion o he cha ges applied o bulk wa e , u ban and ag icul u al end-use s ha e o pay ope a ion managemen and dis ibu ion cos s o wa e companies o o i iga ion communi ies.' In mos i iga ed zones, wa e p ices a e no assessed on he basis o he olume o wa e used, bu as a pe hec a e cha ge.6' Ra es ange om 6 o 198 $/ha.1 Due o his a iabili y in p ices in each geog aphical a ea and he ac ha each a me applies di e en olumes o wa e pe hec a e, he a e age p ice o wa e , including bulk wa e and i iga ion associa ion cha ges, is di icul o calcula e. Based on he a e age consump ion o abou 7000 m3 /ha, a ough es ima e o he p ice pe cubic me e is 0.0158 $/m3 (0,0167 Eu o/m); howe e , his igu e a ies wi h c op di e ences.' In he a ious d a s o he amendmen o he 1985 Wa e Ac (1997-1999), se e al p oposals we e made o modi y di e en aspec s o he wa e a i sys em. 6 ' Bu he only change in he inal ex o he amendmen app o ed in 1999 was one ha in oduced he obliga ion o me e wa e and a sys em o incen i es and penal ies o use s ha de ia e om a baseline olume o wa e use.' The opposi ion o business o ganisa ions, ag icul- u al associa ions, and pa icula ly o powe ul hyd opowe in e es g oups p e en ed he in oduc ion o mo e adical changes, such as ull-cos eco e y o a non- enewable esou ce/en i onmen al impac su cha ge o wa e use.' While he a i sys em has no signi ican ly changed, he mechanisms o inancing public hyd aulic wo ks a e likely o be a ec ed 62. Minis y o he En i onmen , 1998, sup a no e 38, a 557. The amoun is ixed and upda ed annually, aking in o accoun ope a ion cos s, 4 pe cen o he alue o in es men s made by he S a e- he echnical amo isa ion o he wo ks and ins alla ions--and he dep ecia ion o he cu ency. The o al pe iod o echnical amo isa ion o in es men s is se a 50 yea s o ese oi s and a 25 yea s o canals. 63. These cos s, and he way hey a e calcula ed, a y g ea ly. In domes ic uses, o ins ance, p ices a y g ea ly om one place o ano he , depending on se e al ac o s: wa e municipal policy, bodies in cha ge o adminis a ion, cos s o he se ice, le el o was e wa e ea men , and o he s. 64. Jos9 MARIA SUMPSI E" AL., ECONOMIA Y POLICA DE GESTION DEL AGUA EN LA AGRICULTURA, a 148, 148-51 (1998). 65. Id. 66. Id. 67. Consuelo Giansan e e al., L'" olu ion des modali s d'alloca ion de la esou ce en eau en Espagne, 48 REVUE D'ECONOMIE MERIDIONALE (REM) 235, 235-48 (2000). 68. Id. a 240. 69. So a he p ices paid o wa e use a e only aimed a eco e ing-pa ially o comple ely- he cos s o p o ision, anspo a ion, o ea men , bu ne e o pay o he esou ce i sel ; he access o which, hough egula ed by a wa e igh sys em, is conside ed o be ee o cha ge. Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL esponsible o assis ing he i e basin au ho i ies wi h he cons uc ion and managemen o public wa e wo ks."9 The c ea ion o such companies a he i e basin le el is based on a con ac (con enio) be ween he s a e adminis a ion and he mixed capi al company 20 The con ac go e ns cons uc ion and managemen condi ions o wa e wo ks as well as inancial con ibu ions made by he s a e and p i a e sec o . Se e al o hese mixed capi al companies ha e al eady been c ea ed; o example, he Aguas de la Cuenca del Guadalqui i S.A.' 2 was se up in he Guadalqui i basin in 1999. This legisla ion e lec s he impac o global changes ha will be explo ed u he in he nex sec ion. THE WIDER CONTEXT OF CHANGE The ongoing and likely u u e changes in he d ough managemen p ac ices in he Guadalqui i basin a e embedded in he gene al p ocesses occu ing a he global scale, he mac o ends ha a ec he basin in di e en ways." Ou o he gene al landscape o change, i e mac o ends ha a e pa icula ly ele an o he ield o wa e managemen can be iden i ied. The i s mac o end, which is obse able bo h in Spain as well as in o he coun ies, is a building a mosphe e ha a ou s solu ions ha inco po a e "sca ci y indica o s," ma ke ins umen s, and gi es p i a e business a la ge ole, wha could gene ally be de ined as ma ke isa ion.'" These solu ions include economic analysis o wa e uses and ull cos eco e y, bo h o which would change he cu en concep o wa e de ici and would also change how d ough coping mechanisms a e p io i ised." These solu ions ha e impo an consequences o in as uc u e, which is 119. A .158, Law 13/96 (auxilia y egula ion o he Gene al S a e Budge o 1997) o 1996; Ka en Bakke , F om s a e o ma ke ?: Wa e me can ilizacid6n in Spain, 34 ENV'T & PLAN. A 767, 777-79 (2002). 120. BAKKER ET AL., sup a no e 82, a 8. 121. The s a u es o he company es ablish as one o i s objec i es he "managemen o wo ks and wa e esou ces, including en i onmen al managemen o aqui e s, lagoons, ese oi s, i e s and s e ches o i e , as well as he p epa a o y o complemen a y ac i i ies, de i ed om he o me ones," hus opening he ield o wa e managemen o p i a e egula ion. 122. Following he s uc u al heo y o A. Giddens, locale is a consubs an ial ac o in he cons i u ion o social ac ion. I is no jus a me e spa ial pa ame e , a physical en i onmen whe e in e ac ions happens, i is o med by all he elemen s mobilized as pa o he in e ac ion. See gene ally del Mo al e al., sup a no e 10. 123. Bakke , sup a no e 119. 124. A ojo, sup a no e 106. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION p esen ly s agna ing due o inancial cu backs." 2 A he same ime, ma ke ins umen s a e gaining legi imacy, al hough he Spanish people s ill ha e s ong objec ions o ea ing wa e jus like any o he commodi y. 26 As a second gene al end, decision-making powe s a e being ans e ed in wo di e en di ec ions. They a e, mo ing owa ds he egional scale and owa ds he in e na ional scale. This p ocess has been de ined as e-scalingY1' The inc easing poli ical ole o he egions makes wa e policy a lashpoin o con on a ion be ween egional and cen al go e nmen s." l Meanwhile, inc easing in e na ional in e ac ion is also impac ing Spanish wa e policy. Fi s , he global end owa ds libe alising he economy a ec s ag icul u e and wa e policy decisions and has consequences o he local economy.' 29 A he same ime, in e na ional poli ical powe cen es like he Eu opean Union ha e become key local ac o s." 0 The EU has wo p ima y wa e managemen esponsibili ies. I s i s ask is o g an subsidies ha pa ially co e he cos s o la ge wa e wo ks."' Bu i has also made a gene al commi men o sus ainable use o na u al esou ces and is esponsible o p o ec ing he en i onmen s o designa ed si es ha may be ad e sely a ec ed by such wa e wo ks. 2 125. The educed willingness and abili y o he s a e o und wa e wo ks is pa o a gene al end o educe public sec o spending and o de-in es in s a egic sec o s. Bakke , sup a no e 119. 126. Rechazo undnime a la e o ma de la Ley de Aguas p opues a po Isabel Tocino, LA TIERRA, July-Aug. 1997, a 22; Dia io de Sessiones del Cong eso de Dipu ados, 17 junio 1999 (no. 247: 13157-13176); 30 de sep iemb e 1999 (no. 263:13988-14003). 127. E. Swyngedouw, Nei he global no local: globalisa ion and he poli ics o scale, in THE GLOBAL AND THE LOCAL: MAKING THE CONNECTION (K. Cox ed., 1997). 128. This is exempli ied by he con as be ween he expansi e app oach o he i e basin wa e plans-whe e egional go e nmen s and local s akeholde s a e mos in luen ial--and he conse a i e na ional i iga ion plan, which is mo e condi ioned by he logic o ma ke libe alisa ion. 129. Sumpsi, sup a no e 117. 130. Asge Olsen, The New Wa e F amewo k Di ec i e o he Eu opean Union-Main p inciples and obliga ions. P ospec s o a sus ainable wa e policy o he coming decades, in O'PORTO, UNA CITA EUROPEA CON LA NUEVA CULTURA DEL AGUA: LA DIRECTIVA MARCO, 25 (2001). 131. The economic and social cohesion be ween he egions o he Eu opean Communi y was one o he objec i es included in he T ea y o Rome in 1986. As a complemen o he T ea y's single ma ke , opening up on ie s would expose he mos disad an aged coun ies o u he p oblems. This is pu sued, among o he ins umen s, h ough Eu opean Regional De elopmen Funds (ERDF)-75 pe cen EU and 25 pe cen membe s a e con ibu ions-which a e limi ed o less- a ou ed egions (such as Andalusia) and a e ocused mainly on p oduc i e in es men s and in as uc u e. 132. A icle 6 o he T ea y o Ams e dam o he Eu opean Union s a es ha en i onmen al p o ec ion equi emen s mus be in eg a ed in o he de ini ion and implemen a ion o communi y policies. Consequen ly, he Eu opean Commission mus ensu e ha p ojec s de eloped unde egional policy a e espec ul o he en i onmen . An assessmen o hei Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL The hi d mac o end ela es o ongoing, wo ldwide changes in how na u e is ep esen ed, pa icula ly ep esen a ions o he cul u al and symbolic alue o wa e .' 33 These changes a e c ucial in Spain and in he Guadalqui i basin because hese alues a e he co ne s ones o he adi ional hyd aulic pa adigm. TM The adi ional pa adigm is ounded on a sys em o deeply oo ed alues abou he ela ionship be ween na u e and socie y, 35 which iews he na u al wa e en i onmen as a hos ile se ing whose splendou and beau y is enhanced by human in e en ion. 1"M Ano he co ne s one o he adi ional hyd aulic pa adigm is he no ion ha na u e is an obs acle o social and economic p og ess and mus be ans o med o achie e modemisa ion.'1 Hence he ascina ion wi h in e - basin wa e ans e s; he adi ional iew sees hese ans e s as-a way o p og ess by o e coming hyd ological imbalances, a na u al obs acle o socio-economic mode nisa ion." The ou h mac o end is inc eased pa icipa ion in he wa e policy a ena.' In pa icula , he ansi ion o democ acy (in 1977-1978) had majo impac s on he poli ical, social, and ins i u ional cha ac e is ics o Spanish li e." 4 While his end has allowed a g ea e numbe and a ie y o ac o s o eel in ol ed in he wa e deba e, he inclusion/exclusion p ocess is dynamic and some s akeholde s con inue o be excluded. 4' Finally, he e is an obse able a emp o be e coo dina e di e en sec o and go e nmen al depa men policies-a leas a he discu si e le el, bo h in Spain and in Eu ope as a whole.Y Fo example, he need o en i onmen al impac mus be conduc ed by he membe s a es conce ned. Addi ionally, DGXI (En i onmen ) o he Eu opean Union is esponsible o he d a ing and implemen a ion o a numbe o Di ec i es on en i onmen al p o ec ion and wa e , such as he Wa e F amewo k Di ec i e. 133. Del Mo al, sup a no e 10, a 4, 12. 134. Id. 135. Babiano, sup a no e 98, a 11-13. 136. This is how human-buil wa e landscapes associa ed wi h i iga ion (o cha ds and domes ica ed wa e ) come o be alued as ideal and posi i e images o de elopmen , o e iding he possible nega i e impac s on he wide na u al en i onmen . 137. E. Swyngedouw, Mode ni yand Hyb idi y: Regene acionismo, he P oduc ion o Na u e and he Spanish Wa e scape, 1890-1930, 89 ANNALS ASS'N AM. GEOG. 443, 443-65 (1999); Babiano, sup a no e 98. 138. Id. 139. Del Mo al, sup a no e 10, a 5, 19. 140. RAYMOND CARR & JUAN PABLO FUSI, ESPARIA: DE LA DICTADURA A LA DEMOCRACIA (1979); VicToR P9REZ DlAz, LA PRIMAcIA DE LA SOCIEDAD CIVIL (1993) 141. BAKKER z AL., sup a no e 82, a 27. 142. A he Eu opean le el, a numbe o ini ia i es a e unde way aimed a he coo dina ion o en i onmen al p o ec ion wi h o he de elopmen and sec o al policies. See EUROPEAN CONSULTATIVE FORUM ON ENVIRONMENT & SUSTAINABLE DE ., THE EUROPEAN SPATIAL PERsPECnI E(1999),a h p://www.eu opa.eu.in /conmm./ egional-policy/sou ces/doco ic/ [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION ho izon ally in eg a e wa e policy and ag icul u al policy is an impo an issue in Spain." 4 In eg a ion is impo an enough ha in 1994 pa liamen asked he Spanish go e nmen o se ou a na ional i iga ion plan be o e pa liamen made any decision abou a holis ic na ional hyd ological policy.'" O cou se his is no he only way o achie e policy in eg a ion; poli ical and academic discou ses o en ci e spa ial planning as ano he means o achie ing his goal. 4s PHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC BACKGROUND OF THE BASIN Physical Cha ac e is ics o he Lowe Guadalqui i Basin The Guadalqui i Basin has a o al ca chmen a ea o 57,071 km 2 and he i e i sel is 640 km long. The sou ce and es ua y o he i e a e bo h loca ed wi hin he Spanish egion-o Andalusia, bu a small pa o he ca chmen a ea (abou 10 pe cen ) is loca ed in h ee o he Spanish egions, Ex emadu a, Cas illa-La Mancha, and Mu cia (Figu e 1). In i s las s e ches, he Lowe Guadalqui i Basin (LGB) co e s an a ea o 17,085 km 2 ha includes he Andalusian capi al, Se ille (Figu e 1). The mean annual p ecipi a ion in he Guadalqui i basin is 596 mm, which is ela i ely high compa ed o he cen al Spanish mese as o o sou heas e n Spain. Howe e , he main ea u e o Andalusia gene ally and o he LGB is spa ial and empo al i egula i y. The mean annual p ecipi a ion anges om abou 1500 mm in he moun ainous a eas o 400-600 mm in he Guadalqui i dep ession.'" The lowlands in he eas e n pa o he basin ecei e less han 400 mm o mean p ecipi a ion a yea .47 o icial/ epo s/pd /p32_en.pd ; Cohesion Funds and he en i onmen , a h p://www. eu opa.eu.in / comm / egional-policy /sou ces/ doco ic /o icial/ communic/ en i /home.en.h m). A he Spanish le el, he Whi e Pape on Wa e , see Minis e io de Medio Ambien e, sup a no e 22, can be in e p e ed as an e o o coo dina e di e en expe ises and policy ields ela ed wi h wa e . Finally, in Andalusia he c ea ion o he Consejo Andaluz del Agua in 1996, Dec e o 202/1995, de 1 de agos o, and, mo e ecen ly o a speci ic Sec e a ia o Wa e A ai s, di ec ly dependen om he P idency o he Andalusian egional go e nmen (Conse i a de P esidencia de la Jun a de Andalucia) a e seen as e o s o coo dina e he wa e - ela ed esponsibili ies o he depa men s o Public Wo ks, Ag icul u e, and En i onmen . 143. I iga ion ag icul u e uses abou 80 pe cen o he o al wa e esou ces in Spain; he e o e, he ag icul u al policy will necessa ily g ea ly a ec wa e use. Minis y o he En i onmen , sup a no e 38, a 384419. 144. Id. a 410. 145. Fede ico Aguile a Klink, Hada una nue a economia del agua: cues iones undamen ales, a h p://habi a .aq.upm.es/bole in/n8/a agul.h ml (May 16,2002). 146. Aguila e al., sup a no e 3, a 13. 147. Id. Summe 2002] 540 NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL [Vol, 42 Figu e 1. Map o he Guadalqui i basin wi hin Andalusia and Spain NI. I ,k i d" ' i ' .l -0 1 n H ,, o I ca / 0 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION This a iabili y is agg a a ed by he ac ha he egion's mean po en ial e apo anspi a ion is in e sely p opo ional o mean annual p ecipi a ion wi h ex emely high alues in he d y lowlands (some imes mo e han 1000 mm) and lowe alues in he we e moun ainous egions. 1" Tempo al i egula i y has wo componen s, seasonal o in a- annual a iabili y and in e -annual a iabili y, and is simila ly dis ibu ed bo h in he d y and in he humid a eas o he Guadalqui i basin. 14 The in a-annual a iabili y o p ecipi a ion is ypical o he Medi e anean a ea." 5° The seasonal pa e n includes a d y season o i e o six mon hs when e apo anspi a ion exceeds p ecipi a ion and a ainy win e season, whichb ings mos o he annual p ecipi a ion.' The ange, pe sis ence, and ex eme alues o in e -annual a iabili y a e also ex emely high. Acco ding o long se ies o da a om me eo ological s a ions, he p ecipi a ion alues can ange om 800 mm o 1100 mm om one yea o ano he . 152 While p ecipi a ion can a y widely om yea o yea , i is also ue ha yea s wi h ex eme (ei he low o high) p ecipi a ion alues end o be concen a ed o e ime. This concen a ion agg a a es he e ec s o d ough s. Las ly, o en ial p ecipi a ions can be ex emely in ense: 5 in mos o he Lowe Guadalqui i basin i can ain up o 150-200 mm in wen y- ou hou s (be ween one- hi d and one-hal o he o al annual p ecipi a ion).15 4 The mean annual enewable o na u al wa e esou ces 55 a e es ima ed a abou 7000 million cubic me e s/yea (5.6 million ac e- ee /yea ).'" Bu his a ies widely om yea o yea and can ange om 1 o 17,000 million cubic me e s/yea (13.6 million ac e- ee /yea ). 1 5' Fu he mo e, he spa ial and empo al clima ic a iabili y mean ha only a po ion o hese na u al esou ces a e ac ually a ailable a he ime and in 148. Id. 149. Id. 150. Id. 151. Id. 152. Id. a 19. 153. To en iali y is de ined as he o al p ecipi a ion in a yea (nam) di ided by he numbe o days o ain. Id. 154. Id. 155. Fo su ace wa e , annual enewable o na u al wa e esou ces can be de ined as he long- e m a e age eshwa e olume supplied na u ally by he hyd ological cycle, de i ed om he o al un-o (su ace and unde g ound) esul ing om ain all o e a i e basin e i o y minus e apo anspi a ion. 156. CONSEJERIA DE OBRAS POBLUcAs Y TRANSPORTE DE LA JUNTA DE ANDALUCA, PLAN DIREcTOR DE INFRAESTRUCTURAS DE ANDALUCIA 43 (1998). 157. Id. Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL he place equi ed.'" These a ailable esou ces ( ecu sos disponibles) a e ob iously a ec ed by echnological cons ain s, as well as by socio- economic and ins i u ional conside a ions.'" Mos o he a ailable wa e esou ces in he Guadalqui i Basin" 6 a e de i ed om su ace wa e , 161 while only a small po ion comes om g oundwa e . 162 In o de o deal wi h i s i egula p ecipi a ion, he Guadalqui i Ri e is egula ed h ough a ne wo k o ese oi s h oughou i s basin."6 The ese oi s help o pa ially con ol he na u ally e a ic Medi e anean p ecipi a ion egime by s o ing win e lows o la e use. Wi h mo e han 60 ese oi s, he basin's ese oi capaci y o als 6833 million cubic me e s/yea (5.5 million ac e- ee /yea )."' Abou one hi d o his olume (2255 million cubic me e s/yea 65 o 1.8 million ac e- ee /yea ) is a ailable as a e age annual egula ed low.'" Mos o he ese oi s a e loca ed in he Sie a Mo ena a ea, whose impe meable soils and opog aphic condi ions make i ideal o wa e s o age. 67 Impo an Wa e -Use s in he Lowe Guadalqui i Basin The mos impo an ac o in he wa e esou ces use and planning in he Guadalqui i basin is he p ime impo ance o i iga ion ag icul u e, bo h in e ms o wa e use'" and in e ms o con ibu ion o he Final Ag icul u al P oduc ion (PFA) o Andalusia.'" Da a on he basin's i iga ion 158. A ailable wa e esou ces, o he a e age annual egula ed low, can be de ined as he a e age wa e olume s o ed in he ese oi in a yea . I is de e mined by he ese oi capaci y, i s goals and managemen pa e n, including he le el o gua an ee o he use o which i is aimed and he hyd ological egime o he i e basin in which i is loca ed, aking in o accoun he p e-exis ing ese oi s and o he human modi ica ions. 159. Tha is, a ailabili y depends on he echnical capaci y o build dams and in e -basin ans e sys ems as well as on he socio-economic and ins i u ional ac o s (legal p o ision, inancial suppo , ag eemen s be ween egions, e c.) ha allow o he ac ual implemen a ion o hese echnical measu es. 160. A o al o 2700 million cubic me e s/yea , equi alen o 2.1 million ac e- ee /yea is usually a ailable. 161. 84 pe cen o 2255 million cubic me e s/yea , equi alen o 1.8 million ac e- ee / yea is a ailable om su ace egula ion. 162. 16 pe cen o 437 million cubic me e /yea (0.35 million ac e- ee /yea ) comes om g oundwa e abs ac ion. 163. CONSEJERIA DE OBRAS POBLICAS Y TRANSPORTE DE LA JUNTA DE ANDALUCIA, sup a no e 156, a 44. 164. Id. a 43. 165. Id. 166. Id. 167. Id. a 44. 168. 85 pe cen o 2847 million cubic me e /yea , equi alen o 2.30 million ac e- ee /yea . 169. Wi h an i iga ion su ace ha ep esen s 19 pe cen o he o al ag icul u al land, his sec o con ibu es abou 53 pe cen o he Andalusian PFA (P oduc o Final Ag icola). [Vol, 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION su ace is dispa a e. O icial.es ima es ha e been abou 668,000 ha, bu ano he 20 pe cen o he su ace migh be used o unlicensed i iga ion. 70 Wi hin he basin's i iga ion sys em, he i iga ion o ice paddies in he Guadalqui i i e es ua y (abou 35,000 ha) is c ucial: i s impo ance a ises om i s high uni a y -wa e use (9.6,ac e- ee /ha) and i s loca ion in he lowe s e ches o he Guadalqui i Ri e , which is a ec ed by he ides.7' F om Ap il o Sep embe , he ice i iga ion pe iod, la ge olumes o wa e mus be eleased om he ups eam ese oi s o he basin o lowe he salini y in he es ua y." Du ing d ough s, his elease o wa e c ea es con lic be ween he ice g owe s and he es o he basin's i iga ion a me s.1 73 Al hough he u ban sec o demands less wa e (12 pe cen o o al demand) han he i iga ion sec o , i s needs a e also c i ical o planne s because i equi es a gua an eed supply o high quali y wa e yea - ound. Th ee wa e companies, EMASESA, Alja a e S.A., and po en ially he Conso cio del Huesna, supply he 1.3 million occupan s o he Se ille me opoli an a ea wi h 130-150 million cubic me e s o wa e /yea o 0.10- 0.12 million ac e- ee o wa e /yea . 74 The Se ille wa e sys em has expe ienced se ious wa e sho age p oblems du ing each o he 1972-1974, 1981-1983, and 1991-1995 d ough s. Du ing he las d ough , in addi ion o se e e wa e a ioning measu es (be ween 6 and 12 hou s a day), Se ille had o use low-quali y wa e om he Guadalqui i Ri e . 75 While he i e wa e was mixed wi h a ying p opo ions o be e quali y ese oi wa e o g oundwa e , i s use s ill had a nega i e impac on he quali y o po able wa e . 76 The impo ance o accu a ely an icipa ing changes in demand is unde sco ed by he pace o inc eased demand o e he pas ew decades.'" While indus ial demand ep esen s only a mino p opo ion o o al wa e use, he e has been a conside able inc ease in ag icul u al and domes ic demand o e he pas ew decades.' These demands ha e been me by he 170. Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 207, 210. The illegal i iga ion su ace can be de i ed om he di e ence be ween he i iga ion su ace ci ed in wa e managemen documen s (668,000 ha) and he 1999 Andalusian In en o y o I iga ion Ag icul u e, which es ima es he o al i iga ion su ace a 815,000 ha, hus including illegal (i.e. unlicensed) i iga ion su aces. 171. CONFEDERACION HIDROGRAFICA DEL GUADALQUVIR, PLAN HIDROLOGICO DEL GUADALQUIR 50(1995). 172. Id. a 50. 173. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 211. 174. Giansan e e al., sup a no e 98, a 6. 175. BAKKER ET A , sup a no e 82, a 28. 176. See id. (discussing lexibili y in wa e quali y s anda ds du ing imes o d ough ). 177. Minis y o En i onmen , sup a no e 38, a 339-42, 385. 178. Id. Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL esou ces in he Basin's ex ensi e ne wo k o ese oi s." The o al a ailable wa e esou ces in he Guadalqui i basin ep esen as much as 40 pe cen o he o al na u al wa e esou ces. 8' (See Table 1.) Bu , his is s ill insu icien o mee p esen demand. 18' P esen demand ou paces a ailable esou ces in he Guadalqui i i e basin by 241 million cubic me e s (0.2 million ac e- ee /yea ) acco ding o he Andalusian Depa men o Public Wo ks and T anspo . " Fu he mo e, d a na ional and i e basin hyd ological plans, and o he s a egic planning documen s, p ojec signi ican inc eases in domes ic, ag icul u al, and indus ial wa e demand bo h in he Guadalqui i i e basin and in he es o Spain.' ' Unsu p isingly, demand p ojec ions a e he mos con o e sial aspec o he wa e esou ces planning deba e in Spain. Table 1. Basic Da a on Wa e Resou ces in he Guadalqui i Basin Na u al wa e esou ces 5.6 million ac e- ee /yea To al a ailable wa e esou ces 2.1 million ac e- ee /yea - Su ace wa e 1.8 million ac e- ee /yea - G oundwa e 0.35 million ac e- ee /yea To al numbe o ese oi s 60 Rese oi capaci y 5.5 million ac e- ee /yea Modelling he Economic Impac o D ough and Cu en Wa e Managemen S a egies on he LGB The LGB egion's ema kable a iabili y has his o ically had impo an implica ions o he ins i u ions ha mus y o manage he i egula i y and deal wi h he isk o wa e sca ci y.' Bu so a , ew e alua ions o he socio-economic impac s o d ough s exis . Fu he mo e, 179. CONFEDERACION HiDROGRAFICA DEL GUADALQUIVIR, sup a no e 171, a 72. 180. CONSEJERIA DEOBRAS PBLICASYTRANSPORTE DE LA JUNTA DE ANDALUCIA, sup a no e 156, a 43. 181. Id. a 61. 182. Id. These es ima es a e pa o he poli ical deba e on wa e and a y acco ding o he ci cums ances. Fo example, in a ecen documen he Andalusian egional adminis a ion accep s he es ima e o he Guadalqui i Ri e Basin Plan, acco ding o which he wa e de ici in 1992 was 602 million cubic me e s o 0.5 million ac e- ee . CONSEJO ANDALUZ DEL AGUA, ANDALUCIA Y EL PLAN HIDROLOGICO NACIONAL (2000). 183. CONFEDERACION HIDROGRAFICA DEL GUADALQUwIR, sup a no e 171, a 51-63. 184. Aguila e al., sup a no e 3, a 51-52. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION o he han some pa ial analyses o he u ban supply se ice ailu es and d ough impac s on he i iga ion sec o , no comp ehensi e e o has been made o comple ely e alua e he economic, impac o he 1991-1995 d ough ." 5 Fo he lowe Guadalqui i basin, howe e , a ma hema ical p og amming model was ecen ly de eloped o e alua e he economic impac s o he d ough ." 8 The model is based on ealis ic assump ions abou a me s' abili y o an icipa e wa e sho ages and labou and capi al ma ke igidi ies." 8 7 I also makes assump ions abou how a me s e ise hei p oduc ion plans as new in o ma ion becomes a ailable." In Table 218 we summa ise he esul s o he simula ions ca ied ou o ep esen a i e a ms in wo i iga ion dis ic s o he lowe Guadalqui i basin. The ela ionship be ween social d ough s, ailu es in he wa e sys em ha impac socie y, and me eo ological d ough s, p ecipi a ion i egula i y, is non-linea and depends on social, ins i u ional, and physical p ocesses.se Run-o de i ed ese oi in lows la gely depend on soil mois u e and ain all egimes. 1 91 Table 3 shows he complex links be ween pu ely me eo ological p ocesses and hyd ological ou comes. A simple compa a i e analysis o he da a ega ding he con e sion o one uni o ain all in o uni s o ese oi in lows be ween he yea 1989-1990 and he yea 1992-1993 shows a sha p con as .192 In 1989-1990,1.41 uni s o ain all gene a ed one uni o ese oi in low, bu du ing he i s yea o he 1991-1995 d ough 32 uni s o ain all we e equi ed o gene a e a uni o 185. EMASESA, sup a no e 5. 186. See gene ally E a Iglesias e al., E alua ion o d ough managemen in i iga ed a eas, (Oc . 19,2000) (unpublished pape , on ile wi h au ho s). 187. Minis y o he En i onmen , 1998, sup a no e 38, a 345. 188. Id. a 340. 189. As used in Table 2, "s ock" s ands o he pe cen age o s o ed olumes o e s o age capaci y o he ese oi (s) ha se ice each i iga ion dis ic a he beginning o Feb ua y; "wa e allowance" is he pe hec a e i iga ion wa e olume supplied in each i iga ion season. Whe eas he p e ious wo a iables a e de i ed om ac ual da a on he decisions made (wa e allowance) by wa e manage s in he Guadalgui i basin based on speci ic ese oi le els (s ock)- he ollowing a iables a e calcula ed by he model. "Shadow p ice" ep esen s he dual alue associa ed o he wa e a ailabili y alloca ed o a me s each season, "g oss ma gin" is he di e ence be ween o al e enues and a iable cos s, "ne bene i s" a e de ined as he di e ence be ween o al e enues and a iable cos s, and " alue o p oduc ion" s ands o he ma ke alue o he ag icul u al ou pu . Finally, "hi ed labou " is he amoun o pe son-days pe hec a e gene a ed by ex e nal wo ke s. 190. Minis y o he En i onmen , 1998, sup a no e 38, a 167,250. 191. Minis y o he En i onmen , PLANHIDROLOGICONACIONAL, ANALJISDE LOS SISTEMA HiDRAuucos 210 (2000). 192. EMASESA, sup a no e 5, a 53. Sumnme 20021 NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL agmen a ion. 1 The main di isions in he adi ional wa e communi y un ac oss he ollowing lines: (1) di e ences be ween legal and illegal i iga ion a me s,; 2 (2) di e ences ela ed o he size o ag icul u al plo s; (3) di e ences be ween ups eam and downs eam i iga ion a me in e es s; (4) di e ences ela ed o speci ic wa e equi emen s, especially o i iga ion echnology; (5) di e ences ela ed o he c op ypes; and (6) di e encesbe ween he in e es s o su ace wa e and g oundwa e use s.' While he di e ences in ag icul u al plo -size we e an impo an agmen a y o ce du ing he d ough o he 1990s,2m a p esen he mos salien agmen a y o ce comes om di e ences in wa e demand. Demand is di ec ly ela ed o an i iga o 's le els o echnology and e iciency and may be a key impe us o u u e change.m The echnological di ide wi hin he i iga ion communi y has majo implica ions o he managemen o wa e s ocks. New dis ic s ha ha e high e iciency con eyance and dis ibu ion sys ems can unc ion be e wi h limi ed esou ces, while olde i iga ion dis ic s need la ge wa e olumes o unc ion well.' As a esul , dis ic s wi h newe echnology end o a ou smalle wa e allowances and endo se mo e conse a i e s a egies o managing wa e s ocks while dis ic s wi h olde equipmen oppose wa e allowance educ ions because hey lack he echnology o adequa ely adap o ha change.'3 The i iga ion sec o 's dynamism was demons a ed du ing he 1999 i iga ion season, which was a b eaking poin o adi ional wa e alloca ion p ac ices.' As a esul o a e y d y au umn and win e , he wa e egula ion sys em o he Guadalqui i basin had only 12,000 m3 /ha o wa e le a he beginning o he 1999 i iga ion season.' Ini ially, he Guadalqui i i e basin au ho i y p oposed eleasing one- hi d o his olume, 4000 m3 /ha, du ing he cu en season, in exchange o a 231. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 292-94. 232. This is an ex emely ele an issue due o he impo ance o illegal i iga ion (bo h in e ms o o al su ace and wa e use) and lack o con ol in he basin. 233. Gene ally, when his was possible, a me s op ed o he d illing o (mos ly illegal) wells in o de o cushion he consequences o he es ic ions o he gene al i iga ion ban. Gi en he almos comple e lack o con ol o g oundwa e abs ac ions, he Guadalqui i i e basin au ho i y (CHG) and i s pa icipa o y bodies almos enounced conside a ion o he g oundwa e cycle, excep in he las and mos d ama ic phases o he las d ough . 234. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 294. The plo -size spli was exempli ied bes by he deba e on he alloca ion o wa e acco ding o social c i e ia. 235. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 293. 236. Id. 237. Id. a 295 238. Id. a 298-99. 239. Minu es o he Wa e Release Commission (Ma . 1999) (con iden ial documen , on ile wi h au ho s); del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 298-99. [V/ol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION gua an eed i iga ion supply o 4000 m3 /ha o he ollowing wo yea s.' This s a egy would ha e educed he u u e, isk o he i iga ion communi y in he e en o a new mul i-annual d y spell. The i iga ion sec o ejec ed his p oposal ou igh and p essu ed he i e basin au ho i y in o g an ing a 6000 m3 /ha wa e allowance in Ma ch o 1999.4 In July o 1999, his olume was inc eased o 8000 m3 /ha. 242 Fo he i s ime in he Guadalqui i basin's ecen his o y, he decision o inc ease he i iga ion wa e allowance ga ne ed ha sh social and poli ical c i icism.' Al hough his s a ed o open a issu e in he hegemonic discou se, he si ua ion is s ill e y luid. All o hese cha ac e is ics pain a po ai o an ex emely dynamic i iga ion sec o ha exhibi s di e gen app oaches o wa e alloca ion, o i s collec i e ba gaining s a egies, and o i s discou ses. I is impo an o no e ha al hough wa e alloca ion is a basic unc ion o wa e managemen , he discou ses a ou ing wa e e-alloca ion as an ins umen o cope wi h wa e sca ci y ha e only ecen ly eme ged. 2' The wa e e- alloca ion discou se o en diame ically opposes he dominan discou se, which a ou s esou ce augmen a ion as he de ini i e solu ion o Spain's s uc u al wa e de ici . 2 Game Theo y Analysis o Fa ming Sec o Incen i es and S a egies Using he wa e alloca ion p oposals and p ac ices om he 1999 i iga ion season, we used game heo y o analyse he incen i es and s a egies o he a ming sec o ega ding wa e allowances.'" A s a ic wo- agen game whe e wo a me s compe e o wa e esou ces yielded 240. Minu es o he Wa e Release Commission, sup a no e 239; del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 298-99. 241. Minu es o he Wa e Release Commission, sup a no e 239; del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 298-99. 242. Minu es o he Wa e Release Commission, (July 1999) (con iden ial documen , on ile wi h au ho s); del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 298-99. 243. A local newspape published on i s on page he ollowing headline: "The same olume as a six yea wa e supply o he ci y o Se ille was di e ed o i iga ion pu poses." See Des iada pa a egadlo an a agua como Se illa consume en seis ailos, DIARIO DE SEVILLA, Sep . 1, 1999. The new elemen is he shi in ocus om a claim o mo e ese oi s-as a solu ion o he d ough - o he c i ique o how he emaining wa e had been managed and alloca ed, wi h a special conce n o he possibili y o a ailu e in he u ban supply sys em. 244. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 299-300. 245. The concep o s uc u al wa e de ici and he ea men o unce ain y wi hin Spanish wa e planning is analysed in Leand o del Mo al I ua e & Consuelo Giansan e, Cons ain s o D ough Con ingency Planning in Spain: he Hyd aulic Pa adigm and he Case o Se ille, 8 J. CONTINGENCIES & CRIsIS MGmT. 93(2000). 246. See gene ally Wei ze Lise e al., A game model o a me s' demands o i iga ion wa e om ese oi s in Sou he n Spain (Ma . 23, 2000) (unpublished pape , on ile wi h au ho s). Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL di e en equilib ia ac oss he h ee i iga ion dis ic s o which he game was applied, Bajo Guadalqui i , El Via , and Genil-Cab a. Fa me s in a sel - managed i iga ion dis ic such as El Via end o be conse a i e and sa e wa e in he ese oi s o he nex seasons. Bu ; in cen ally managed i iga ion dis ic s, such as Bajo Guadalqui i and Genil-Cab a, a me s end o demand wa e ins ead o sa ing i . 247 Modeling a me s' s a egies as a epea ed game enabled us o analyze how he p e e ences o a high-demand s a egy depend on he inhe en isk le el o he hyd ological a iables. Unde he cu en condi ions, a epea ed game demons a es ha a mo e demanding s a egy is op imal o a me s in bo h ypes o i iga ion dis ic s. 28 Howe e , an ex eme clima e change scena io ha subs an ially inc eases he isk o d ough c ea es an incen i e o a me s o become mo e conse a i e- assuming he e a e en o ceable ules o p o ec a me s' wa e igh s. 249 This indica es ha a me s ac ually do eac o p esen hyd ological isks, bu jus no enough o achie e equilib ium wi h clima ic pa e ns. These indings suppo he hypo hesis ha mo e anspa en wa e igh s ha spell ou he igh s and du ies o he wa e sys em bene icia ies may c ea e a g ea e incen i e o a me s o accep p oposals ha manage wa e s ocks o e ime, such as he one made by he Guadalqui i i e basin au ho i y in 1999.' Speci ically, i a me s' wa e igh s we e gua an eed ac oss seasons hey would be much mo e willing o coope a e wi h mo e conse a i e s a egies han in he cu en sys em ha pools unused wa e igh s alloca ions om p e ious yea s and new in lows be o e beginning he alloca ion p ocess o a new yea ." EVALUATING THE WATER ALLOCATION DECISIONS IN THE LOWER GUADALQUIVIR BASIN To e alua e he e iciency o he wa e alloca ion decisions made by wa e manage s in he lowe Guadalqui i basin in he 1991-1998 pe iod, we c ea ed an Economic D ough Managemen Index (EDMI) and applied 247. Sel -managed i iga ion dis ic s ( o example El Via ) a e he e de ined as hose dis ic s whose supplies depend exclusi ely on one ese oi and a e only aimed a i iga ion pu poses. On he o he hand, cen ally managed i iga ion dis ic s ( o example Bajo Guadalqui i ) depend on a la ge numbe o ese oi s h oughou he basin, which a e sha ed wi h o he i iga ion dis ic s and wa e use sec o s ( o example, u ban supply). In bo h cases, he managemen o wa e s ocks is supe ised by he i e basin au ho i y. 248. Sel -managed dis ic s and cen ally-managed dis ic s. 249. The a me s a e acing a so-called p isone 's dilemma. 250. Lise, e al., sup a no e 246, a 244. 251. Id. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION i o da a om he a ea.- 2 The index adds an economic dimension o clima ic and hyd ologic in o ma ion and can assis wa e manage s by p o iding in o ma ion abou he economic isk o hei s a egies along wi h he cos o educing ha isk. The main appeal o he EDMI is ha i combines ou key pieces o in o ma ion in an easily in e p e able index: (1) he s uc u al cons ain s o a supply sys em based on ese oi s, (2) he s ochas ic na u e o na u al un-o s lowing in o he s o age acili ies, (3) he ins i u ional ules ha ha e been ollowed by wa e manage s du ing he pe iods o his o ical eco d, and (4) he bene i s acc uing o he consump i e use s. An EDMI esul uses he a io o he p esen use- alue o wa e and he expec ed use- alue o he wa e le in s ock o p o ide a measu e o he oppo uni y cos o employing a mo e conse a i e, wa e -sa ing managemen s a egy. An EDMI a io o one indica es ha he wa e managemen s a egy is pe ec ly e icien because he oppo uni y-cos o sa ing he wa e equals i s expec ed use- alue o he ollowing i iga ion season. I he EDMI a io is less han one, he cos o sa ing one wa e uni is less han he expec ed use- alue o he ollowing yea and e eals ha he wa e manage s a e ha ing an exceedingly isky managemen beha iou . I he EDMI a io is g ea e han one, he oppo uni y-cos o sa ing one wa e uni is g ea e han he bene i s i would gene a e he ollowing yea and wa e should be used in he cu en season. Table 4 epo s he EDMI a ios calcula ed o he El Via (EV) and he Bajo Guadalqui i (BG) i iga ion dis ic s, using da a a ailable o each o he nine yea s om 1990 h ough 1998. Table 4. Ac ual EDMIs o he EV and BG Supply Sys ems (1990-1998) Yea EV BG S ock on Wa e EDMI S ockon Wa e EDMI Feb. 1 (% o allowance Feb. 1 (% o allowance capaci y), (ac e- ee /ha) capaci y)' (ac e- ee /ha) 1990 91 7.54 0.170 37 5.01 0.030 1991 60 5.88 0.650 26 4.42 0.080 1992 42 4.60 0.640 21 2.54 1.040 1993 13 0.62 3.820 15 0.06 36.180 1994 35 3,86 0.806 18 0.73 6,350 1995 9 0 9.540 11 0 11.890 1996 95 5.80 0.760 36 4.76 0.66 1997 92 5.90 0.182 89 6.39 0.007 1998 93 5.90 0.750 87 7.05 0.940 'Sou ce, Unpublished epo iuix i e bas 252. See gene ally E a Iglesias e al., An Economic Managemen Index o E alua e I iga o s' Vulne abili y o Wa e Sho ages (Oc . 19, 2000) (unpublished pape , on ile wi h au ho s). Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL The EDMI alues epo ed on Table 4 show se e al cases o ine icien managemen . To be ai , please no e ha he EDMI a ios we e compu ed based on a e age in low alues ha did no an icipa e he ea ly 1990s d ough . E en so, EDMI a ios in 1991 a e less han one in bo h dis ic s, indica ing a need o lowe wa e allowances in he 1991 i iga ion season. The ese oi in lows o he 12 mon hs ollowing Feb ua y 1,1991, we e below a e age, esul ing in lowe s ock alues on Feb ua y 1, 1992, han in he p e ious yea . Howe e , he EDMI a io o he Bajo Guadalqui i dis ic hi i s op imal alue in 1992 wi h a wa e allowance o 2170 m3 /ha, which was his o ically low bu e icien . El Via 's 1992 and 1994 decisions con as sha ply wi h ha e iciency. The 1992 EDMI a io was 0.64; he 1994 (a yea be ween. wo ex emely d y ones) EDMI a io was 0.80. Al hough Bajo Guadalqui i EDMI' a ios ha e been e y high since he hyd ological d ough s a ed in 1992 and un il i s end in 1995, when ain all le els eco e ed, h oughou he d ough pe iod no ac ion could be aken o mo e hem close o one simply because he e was no wa e le in he ese oi s. Tha said, he Bajo Guadalqui i dis ic in 1990 and 1991 was managed wi h EDMI a ios close o ze o, when s ocks we e a 37 and 26 pe cen o ese oi capaci y espec i ely. I wa e manage s had eac ed a he ime, he e ec s o he se e e 1992 o 1995 d ough s migh ha e been pa ially mi iga ed o pu o un il he las wo yea s o he d ough pe iod. All EDMI a ios a e 1996 a e less han one in bo h i iga ion dis ic s. This indica es ha bo h sys ems a e unning ine icien ly and a e y high isk le els. These esul s also indica e ha , so a , wa e manage s ha e aken en i ely oo much isk. The high isk le el sugges s ha lowe maximum wa e allowances a e accep able and ha a conse a i e, wa e sa ing s a egy should be implemen ed as soon as ese oi ne wo k wa e le els s a o d op. The EDMI a ios con i m ou ini ial hypo hesis ha he cu en ules o i iga ion wa e allowances and o managing ese oi wa e s ocks a e highly ine icien . I also sugges s ha he ecen amendmen o he Wa e Ac , which imidly in oduces wa e ma ke s, may all sho o expec a ions because wa e igh holde s a e no gi en su icien gua an ees o owne ship o e he esou ces le in he ese oi . This unce ain y makes i unclea whe he he wa e le will be a ailable ei he o sale in he ma ke o o u u e consump ion. This e ec i ely limi s he ole o he ma ke o he alloca ion o he esou ces a ailable in a single i iga ion season. The single season ocus dis o s sca ci y signals, which may gi e incen i es o de e consump ion a he onse o d ough s and so en he supply a iabili y inhe en o he Medi e anean clima e. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION CATALYSTS AND INHIBITORS OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE The e a e iden i iable ca alys s o change wi hin he lowe Guadalqui i basin ha a e likely o in luence he wa e sys em's abili y o cope wi h p esen and u u e isks. In his ega d, e en hough clima e change is no ye a majo ca alys o change in Spain, i may signi ican ly a ec u u e wa e managemen scena ios.' Clima e change has ei he been igno ed o w i en o as an en i onmen alis conce n. Al hough i has ecen ly a oused g ea e in e es ,' i s possible e ec s con inue o be excluded om discussions o p esen wa e managemen op ions.'s This a i ude is uelled by he pe cep ion ha he exis ing unce ain ies he wa e planning p ocess aces, such as es ima ing p esen wa e esou ces, p ojec ing socio-economic ends, p ojec ing wa e demands, p edic ing sho e m ho izons, lack o con ol, and lack o c edibili y a e g ea e han clima e change unce ain ies.' In poin o ac , wa e mange s end o iew he cu en imbalance as a good p oxy o an in e media e clima e change scena io.2 Howe e , in he sho e m, clima e change is no likely o be a ca alys o change, as wha is pe cei ed as a ch onic wa e de ici seems o be a mo e u gen issue o ackle. One o he ac o s likely o enhance adap a ion in he d ough managemen p ac ices is g owing public, expe , poli ical, and media awa eness o he con inuing c isis he p esen wa e sys em aces.' This c isis is o en blamed on he uncon olled expansion o i iga ed land o e he pas wo decades.' The mos ecen d ough has played a key ole in 253. Ayala, sup a no e 215. 254. The issue o clima e change is conside ed in he Whi e Pape on Wa e and in he las d a o he Na ional Hyd ological Plan (Sep . 2000) and is ecei ing inc easing a en ion in he media and expe ci cles. 255. The clima e change scena ios ha e no been conside ed in he es ima e o u u e a ailable wa e esou ces in any planning documen . See CONFEDERACION HIDROGRARCA DEL GUADALQUI iR, sup a no e 171. 256. These ideas a e de i ed om a semina on clima e change o ganised by he Se ille SIRCH eam, o which se e al expe s and wa e manage s om he basin we e in i ed. See SIRCH, WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS IN THE GUADALQUIVIR BASIN (June 6,2000) (unpublished epo , on ile wi h au ho s). 257. F om his pe spec i e, he p oblems ela ed o clima e change a e pe cei ed as p esen and u gen . This pa adoxical ela ionship wi h he subjec shows he e y imp ecise in o ma ion gene ally a ailable and he lack o e lec ion ega ding clima e change. A p esen , he idea ha he a iabili y o ain all and empe a u e and he pe sis ence o d y spells ha e inc eased o e he las h ee decades in he Guadalqui i i e basin has been accep ed in clima e esea ch and wa e managemen ci cles. 258. See gene ally, Juan L6pez Ma os, Los p oblemas del agua y su ges i6n en el e i o io andaluz, in ll CONGRESO IB lCO SOBRE GEsTR)N Y PLANFICAcKiN DEL AGUA (2000), a ailable a www.us.es/cibe ico. 259. Id. a 256. Summe 2002] NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL inc easing awa eness o he weakness o he p esen managemen sys em.0 Al hough ex eme e en s and c ises can igge change, hey exis wi hin a speci ic social-ins i u ional se ing. In Spain, he backd op is a "s uc u al de ici " one in which d ough s a e iewed as ci cums an ial exp essions o a ch onic wa e sho age.' This social unde s anding o d ough s as a symp om o exp ession o ch onic sho age makes i easy o neglec impo an planning a eas like con ingency planning and c isis managemen . This iew has also made i easie o a ionalize and o jus i y bo h a dange ous demand-hung y mindse 262 and a igo ous in as uc u e building s a egy by he s a e. 2" Howe e , he pe asi e con idence in he sys em's obus ness ha exis ed be o e he 1990's d ough con as s sha ply wi h he p esen awa eness o ulne abili y.' As a esul o ha d ough , wo inno a i e app oaches ha e gained suppo and may enhance u u e adap a ion o unce ain y and isk. The wo app oaches a e d ough con ingency planning and he ealloca ion o wa e be ween sec o s and use g oups.' The la e mechanism alls unde he mo e gene al ma ke isa ion end,' bu hey also e lec a s onge commi men o gua an eeing a basic u ban wa e supply in d ough si ua ions e en in he ace o p essu e om he i iga ion sec o . 267 Possibly he g ea es po en ial o he wa e sys em in he lowe Guadalqui i basin o adap o sca ci y comes om educed i iga ion ha could esul om ag icul u al policy changes o wa e a e inc eases. 26 Al hough ull cos eco e y, FCR, 26 is unlikely in ei he he sho o medium e m, some p ice inc eases and changes in he Common Ag icul u al Policy (CAP), which would libe a e signi ican wa e olumes, 260. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 298-99. 261. del Mo al I ua e & Giansan e, sup a no e 245, a 94-95. 262. Id. a 95-96. A simila analysis is pe o med on discu si e media ion o d ough s in Cali o nia in L. Ne a ez, Jus wai un il he e is a d ough : media ing en i onmen al c isis o u ban g ow h, 28 ANTIPODE 246-72 (1996). 263. del Mo al I ua e & Giansan e, sup a no e 245, a 99-100. 264. Id. a 98. 265. BAKKER ET AL., sup a no e 82, a 27,63. 266. Discou ses a ou ing he ealloca ion o wa e acco ding o social c i e ia ha e gi en way o he in oduc ion o ma ke ins umen s as he main me hods o enhancing lexibili y and e icien esou ce alloca ion. 267. The expe ience o he 1981-1983 and 1991-1995 d ough s-when millions o households su e ed om wa e cu -o s and poo wa e quali y-and o he 1999 i iga ion season-when wa e manage s' decisions on he alloca ion o wa e o a me s ha e been ha shly c i icised-played a key ole. 268. Sumpsi, sup a no e 117. 269. Abou 80 pe cen o he alue o p oduc ion in hal o he 600,000 ha o i iga ion su aces in he Guadalqui i basin comes di ec ly om subsidies o he Common Ag icul u al Policy (CAP) and only abou 25 pe cen o hese i iga ion su aces would be able o subsis unde a scena io o ull cos eco e y (FCR). [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION a e e y likely.' These changes, howe e , a e highly dependen on ins i u ional a angemen s and a e causing and will con inue o cause g ea social esis ance. 27' The g ea e awa eness o ulne abili y, he p ospec o changes in wa e use pa e ns, and he p omo ion o in e -sec o al wa e alloca ion and con ingency planning no wi hs anding, signi ican po ions o he adi ional wa e pa adigm pe sis unchanged and a e poised o esis change, e en when i appea s necessa y o cope wi h wa e sca ci y. The main sou ces o esis ance; in he Guadalqui i basin a e aligned wi h a ious ea u es o he adi ional wa e policy communi y. The adi ional enginee ing mindse and long-s anding suppo o s uc u al solu ions o wa e sca ci y con inue o hinde se ious conside a ion o o he al e na i es, such as empo a y e-alloca ion, con ingency planning, o managing demand. 2' In pa icula , s uc u al solu ion suppo e s iew demand managemen as possible and e en necessa y bu ul ima ely insu icien o add ess he "s uc u al de ici ." ' Addi ionally, he s ill e y low wa e p ices and lack o awa eness o en i onmen al impac s p o ide li le incen i e o use s o choose good sca ci y esponses o echnology and discou age demand educ ions. 274 The implemen a ion o new policy p e e ences like wa e ma ke s, me e ing, and p ice incen i es a e also se iously hampe ed by weak managemen and a gene al lack o moni o ing and con ol o e wa e uses.'n In pa icula , he p esen licensing sys em p o ides nei he incen i e no legal gua an ee o a minimum supply o wa e o he ollowing yea (in e - empo al alloca ion) o i iga ion a me s who a e willing o educe wa e consump ion du ing d ough s. Also, lack o ins i u ional anspa ency and con lic be ween dis inc pa s o he adminis a ion wi h 270. Sumpsi, sup a no e 117. 271. Los agen es sociales echazan la asa des inada a los ges o es de agua, EL PAIS, July 16,1998. 272. In pa icula , he a i ude o he Se ille wa e company owa d his op ion is s ill hesi an , despi e he ecen legal changes opening up new possibili ies o in e -use ans e s and he inclusion o his op ion in he 1998 D ough Manual. A he same ime, wa e conse a ion measu es a e no de eloped wi hin in eg a ed p og ams o demand managemen bu as isola ed measu es wi hou de ined objec i es and calenda s. On he o he hand, he s able educ ion o demand would ha e clea epe cussions on a wa e company's inancial balance. So a , he sus ained low le el o consump ion ha has pe sis ed in Se ille e en a e he d ough eme gencies has been abso bed by wa e p ice inc eases. Howe e , his solu ion has high poli ical cos s o he municipal go e nmen ha mus app o e hem and esul s in he municipal wa e company's ambi alen a i ude. See EMASESA, MANUAL DESEQUA (1998). 273. See Pla a o ma del Guadalqui i , a h p://www.se sigloxxi.o g/pla a o ma (Ma . 15, 2002). 274. Id. 275. P o esso Ramon Llamas asse s ha he s a e o unde g ound wa e s in Spain is in chaos, A ag6n P ess, a h p://www.ci ce.cps.uniza .es/spanish/wa e web/dossie .h ml (June 14, 2001). Summe 20021 NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL di e en poli ical a ilia ions and be ween he adminis a ion and use s o ci izens also con ibu e o he main enance o he s a us quo. 6 Bu , o all he ea u es o he adi ional wa e communi y, he social hegemony o he i iga ion sec o is he mos impo an . I explains he emphasis placed on he nega i e e ec s o ull cos eco e y wa e a i s o ag icul u e as well as he sus ained inc ease in i iga ion lands 2' ha ly in he ace o mo e gene al ends and he p e e ences se ou in he Na ional I iga ion Plan. A e eme ging om he las d ough s eamlined and s ong, he ag a ian sec o can now ely on a well-consolida ed s uc u e, as well as new ad hoc p essu e g oups and alliances o push i s agenda.m SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES The mos p omising esponses o wa e sca ci y a e likely o esul om demand managemen , con ingency planning, and in e -sec o and in e - empo al alloca ion o wa e s ocks. As a esul o hese ca alys s o ins i u ional change, in he lowe Guadalqui i basin inno a i e wa e managemen p ac ices (whose deg ees o de elopmen a y) ha e eme ged.7 9 Fo example, demand managemen measu es ha e been p omo ed wi h g ea e ene gy in he Se ille wa e supply sys em since he mid- 1990s. Simila ly, a gene al downwa d end in u ban wa e use could be ela ed o inc eased public awa eness and could become he basis o a long- e m wa e conse a ion s a egy.' As ega ds con ingency planning, he main de elopmen in his ield is he elabo a ion o a d ough manual by he Se ille wa e company. 82 The manual p oposes c i e ia o de ining 276. PWREZ Diaz E AL, 1996, sup a no e 23, a 61-64. 277. To a la ge ex en , his inc ease has been uncon olled-wi hou he co esponding wa e licences. In some cases he Andalusian egional go e nmen has o icially suppo ed i , hough. One o he main ac o s behind his g ow h is he cu en Eu opean ag icul u al subsidisa ion policy. 278. Al hough hei in as uc u e agenda has domina ed he discou ses o he main poli ical pa ies and media, none o he wa e schemes ha hey we e demanding ha e been ca ied ou since 1995. Thus, a pa adoxical si ua ion exis s in which an appa en social and poli ical quasi-unanimi y abou he need o hyd aulic in as uc u e exis s, bu he e is also a eal s agna ion in i s implemen a ion. 279. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 297-98. 280. del Mo al I ua e & Giansan e, sup a no e 245, a 99. 281. Howe e , he u ban de elopmen model (subu banisa ion) cu en ly in o ce in Se ille, as in o he Spanish and Eu opean ci ies, also ep esen s a clea obs acle o he educ ion o u ban wa e demand. 282. See EMASESA, sup a no e 272. [Vol. 42 INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTATION di e en phases o a d ough acco ding o inc easing se e i y and also p oposes co espondingly se e e conse a ion measu es.2" Bu he esponse o wa e sca ci y ha lies a he cen e o he ecen wa e deba e conce ns in e -sec o and in e - empo al wa e e-alloca ion.2" This esponse came o he o e on because o he unequal dis ibu ion o wa e esou ces among sec o s wi h di e en le els o economic and social s a us and because o he 1999 amendmen o he Wa e Ac , which p epa es he g ound o wa e ans e s be ween use s.' The idea ha hese ans e s may inc ease he o e all e iciency o wa e alloca ion is beginning o be accep ed, albei wi h some e icence.' Bu mo e u moil lies ahead as he in oduc ion o wa e ma ke s is likely o elici di e gen eac ions om di e en ly si ua ed i iga ion a me s. Socio-demog aphic ea u es, a m size, c op ype, echnology, sou ce o supply, and geog aphical posi ion in he wa e sys em will all impac di e en i iga ion a me s in di e en ways and he g oup could expe ience mo e ension, especially i wa e we e o become e en mo e sca ce.' CONCLUSIONS In he Lowe Guadalqui i basin, as in he es o Spain, a esou ce- o ien ed wa e managemen model wi h deep his o ical oo s, he "hyd aulic pa adigm," has domina ed so a .' This model has had a dis inc impac on how he isk o wa e sca ci y is pe cei ed and on he ulne abili y o he wa e sys em, which is inc easing as a esul o use s' demand-hung y a i ude. In his pa adigm, d ough s ha e adi ionally been iewed as exp essions o a "s uc u al de ici ," a pe manen imbalance be ween wa e demand and wa e supply. This iew has led wa e manage s and wa e planne s o neglec he c isis managemen and con ingency planning a eas. None heless, he idea ha he wa e managemen sys em aces a se ious c isis is becoming mo e widesp ead among wa e manage s and s akeholde s alike. The las d ough inc eased awa eness o he wa e sys em's ulne abili y and became a ca alys o social pa icipa ion in he wa e deba e. The uncon olled expansion o i iga ed lands o e he pas wo decades also had impo an ami ica ions o cu en wa e alloca ion 283. Minis y o he En i onmen , sup a no e, 38, a 839. 284. 1999 Wa e Ac , B.O.E., 1999, 298, a . 61 bis. 285. Id. 286. del Mo al I ua e e al., sup a no e 104, a 299-300. 287. Id. a 292-94. 288. This e m desc ibes a ype o wa e de elopmen policy ha ad oca es building new wa e in as uc u e (dams ha make mo e wa e a ailable) ins ead o managing demand (by inc easing wa e e iciency o campaigning in a ou o wa e sa ings). Summe 2002]