Reloading the price revolution in Seville: four stages of high inflation with different causes

1 Reloading the Price Revolution in Seville: Four Stages of High Inflation with Different Causes 1 Manuel González-Mariscal, Universidad de Sevilla Introduction New estimates about the evolution of prices in Seville during the sixteenth century (González-Mariscal 2015, 2017) challenge the conclusions of Hamilton’s American Treasure and the Price Revolution in Spain, 1501–1650 (Hamilton 1934). While Hamilton’s calculations suggest that prices increased by a factor of 3.7 between 1514 and 1603 – dates that, as we shall see shortly, mark the beginning and the end of the “price revolution” –, new estimates indicate that prices increased by a factor of 7.1. Both price curves begin to separate in 1547 and can be largely explained by the behaviour of house rentals, which Hamilton did not take into consideration. In order to address the main differences between both price curves, an in-depth analysis of the distinct trajectories and stages needs to be undertaken. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to review the economic phenomenon known as “price revolution” and to examine the causes that have been brandished to explain it, while incorporating new possible interpretations. The article is organised as follows. Section one examines the characteristics of the new price curve, outlines the chronological limits of the “price revolution” and identifies the periods in which inflation was greatest, namely 1515–1526, 1540–1560, 1575–1587 and 1598–1602. Section two calculates the impact that the different products that compose the basket of goods have in the general increase in prices and shows the possible factors that can be regarded as being responsible for the inflation for each of the four periods outlined above. Among them are the effects of agrarian crises, population growth, increase in money supply, division of labour and growth in 1 Work funded by the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (AEI/FEDER, UE), HAR-2016- 78026-P. I wish to express my gratitude for comments made about previous versions of this work – presented in Graz, London, Salamanca and Boston – by Renate Pieper, Claudia Jefferies, Markus Denzel and Rafael Dobado. Having greatly profited from their ideas, the errors that the work may still contain are mine alone. 2 urbanisation, the relationship between supply and demand in the house rental market, changes in the income velocity of money, coinage debasement, and the impact of taxes. These factors will be compared and contrasted with the theories put forward by other specialists. My premise is that each of the inflationist episodes responded to a different combination of factors. In the near future I intend to build an econometric model that incorporates the factors that underlie the inflationist waves, helping to determine the impact of each of them on the increase in prices. In order to achieve this, I still have to quantify some of the factors that I have identified as causing inflation and gain a better understanding of certain variables, especially money supply. The New Shape of the Price Revolution: Main Features, Duration, and Stages The causes of the rise in prices in Europe during the sixteenth century comprise one of the most controversial debates among economic historians. Although the debate can be traced back to the sixteenth century – when Jean Bodin argued that prices rose as a consequence of the arrival of American silver, while Jean de Malestroit believed that inflation was caused by the coinage debasement (Mauro 1976) – it was not until 1934 that Hamilton finally established the modern foundations of the discussion, when he presented a vast statistical data concerning prices, salaries and precious metal imports, and provided a precise quantification of the phenomenon (Hamilton 1928, 1929a, 1929b, 1934). This was the beginning of a debate that, with ebbs and flows, has continued to our days. Other pioneers in creating price databases for the sixteenth century were Hoszowski (1928) for the Ukraine; Pelc (1935, 1937) and Adamczyk (1938) for Poland; Elsas (1936/1940) for Germany; Hauser (1936) for France; Pribram (1938) for Austria; Parenti (1939) and Coniglio (1952) for Italy; Posthumus (1946, 1964) for the Netherlands; Phelps Brown and Hopkins (1956) for Great Britain; and Verlinden (1965) and Van der Wee (1975) for Belgium 2 . Their work led to the elaboration of the so-called first-generation price indexes. 2 Bibliographic references taken from Allen (2001). 3 Although the history of prices has undergone a revival over the last twenty years, most studies have relied on the statistical data compiled by these “pioneers” 3 . This has resulted in the publication of second-generation price indexes, which have substantially improved the elaboration of index numbers, including those concerning Hamilton’s Spanish data (Martín Aceña 1992; Reher and Ballesteros 1993; Llopis et al. 2000). On the other hand, very little new data about sixteenth-century prices has been published in recent years, with the exception of the work of Feliù (1991a, 1991b) for Catalonia, González Agudo (2015) for Toledo and González-Mariscal (2015, 2017) for Seville. Concerning Seville, a close examination reveals that Hamilton’s data are very problematic, especially for the period between 1501 and 1580 (Hamilton 1983, p. 337 and 353–355). For the period 1501–1550, of the 24 commodities for which he provides price information, no information whatever exists for 70 per cent of the years and, overall, 79 per cent of the data is missing. For the period 1551–1580, of the 56 commodities for which he provides price information, we have no information for 47 per cent of the years and, overall, 61 per cent of the data is missing. It is also worth noting that Hamilton’s commodity list does not include some products, which were very important for domestic economies, such as bread, house rentals and finished textiles products. Finally, Hamilton decided not to weight his price index, assigning equal importance to such products as wheat, gunpowder, beef and lead, whose importance on the household basket of goods was very different. The identification of these problems led me to a search for alternative primary sources and to try to solve the deficiencies of Hamilton’s price index (González-Mariscal 2013). Substantial differences in the results suggest that, in order to continue increasing our understanding of prices and standards of living in the Ancien Régime, scholars must go beyond the statistical data compiled by the “pioneers”, expanding their databases as well as investigating changes undergone by the spending structure of families. The use of new primary sources (for a complete list cf. González-Mariscal 2015, p. 360- 362) and improved calculation methods allowed me to obtain a new estimate of the evolution of prices in Seville between 1501 and 1603 (González-Mariscal 2013, 2015, 2017). Improvements include the incorporation of house rentals into the index, the use of 3 See the databases of International Institute of Social History: http://www.iisg.nl/hpw/data.php; and the databases of Global Price and Income History Group: http://gpih.ucdavis.edu. 4 four different basket of goods – inspired by changes detected in consumption patterns over time –, a more careful selection of the products that compose these baskets and a more precise weighting of each of these products. The new Consumer Price Index (CPI) is illustrated in Figure 1, alongside Hamilton’s. If we take the central year of the 11-year moving averages – that is, if we focus on the trend of the variable – we may say that, between 1506 and 1603, prices in Seville increased by a factor of 6.1. This corresponds to a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.89 per cent. The most inflationist decades were the 1520s, 1550s and 1540s, with CAGR of 4.29, 3.53 and 2.52 per cent respectively. Concerning the price of discrete categories, those which rose the most between the 1500s and 1590s concerned house rentals, the price of which increased by a factor of 19.9, followed by fuel (×4.6), food (×4.2) and alcoholic beverages (×3.5); overall, prices increased by a factor of 5.1. If we compare the 1520s and the 1590s – for which I have data pertaining to all the defined categories – the prices that rose the most concerned house rentals (×12.7), domestic furnishings (×3.9), food (×3.3) and fuel (×3.2), while those that rose the least involved clothing and shoes (×3.0), other goods (×2.8) and alcoholic beverages (×2.0). Overall, prices increased by a factor of 3.8. To understand these different price increases, we must consider the different elasticities of supply and demand of each product. The substantial differences observed between the evolution of house-rental prices and the remaining categories could have been caused by the inability of the housing supply to meet the demand posed by the rapidly growing Sevillian population between 1530 and 1580. Speculative processes undertaken in the sector during the second half of the century maybe additionally increased the house rental prices (Carmona 1984; Collantes de Terán 1989). Population censuses and baptism records suggest that between the 1530s and 1580s the population of Seville increased around 150 per cent (González-Mariscal 2015), whereas residential districts barely expanded outside the limits of the Andalusi twelfth century city wall (Morales Padrón 1989, p. 26–29). <INSERT FIGURE 1 HERE> 5 Figure 1: Consumer Price Index in Seville, 1501–1610 (in vellón 4 , 11-year moving averages, base 100 = 1501–1510 average) Source: González-Mariscal (2015, 2017) and Hamilton (1983) As shown in Figure 1, the curves run close to one another between 1508 and 1547. From 1547 onwards, however, the new curve begins to grow at a much faster pace, and the difference between the two curves is 65 per cent in 1603. According to Hamilton, between 1508 and 1603, prices grew in Seville by 275 per cent, while the new index suggests an increase of 529 per cent. The periods in which the greatest differences exist are 1542– 1557 and 1570–1588. The reasons for these differences are: taking into consideration of house rental prices (González-Mariscal 2015, p. 377), but also the inclusion of other basic goods at the household level, such as bread and textile manufactures; improvements introduced to the database; greater accuracy in the design of baskets of goods, which reflect changes in consumption patterns; and, a more precise weighting of products included in the said baskets of goods. The 11-year moving averages of inflation rates of the new CPI from 1501 to 1603 (Figure 2) suggest that the entire sixteenth century was characterised by price rises, except for the 3-year period 1512–1514 and the year 1590. Grosso modo, four waves of rising inflation may be identified – 1508–1516, 1527–1550, 1568–1579 and 1590–1599 – with moving averages of around 6.5 per cent, 7 per cent, 6 per cent and 5 per cent. The second of these waves is the most significant, both in terms of duration (23 years) and intensity (the highest values in the whole series are attested during this period). Conversely, three periods during which inflationist pressure abated can also be identified: 1516–1527, 1550–1568 and 1579–1590. <INSERT FIGURE 2 HERE> Figure 2: Inflation in Seville, 1501–1610 (11-year moving averages). Highlighted: high inflationary periods. Source: González-Mariscal (2015, 2017) 4 In Castile, the sixteenth century was characterized by monetary stability, so that silver prices were equal to vellón prices between 1501 and 1598. Monetary debasement started to take place in 1599 and still in 1610 the differential between vellón prices and silver prices was not very relevant – less than 2 per cent (González-Mariscal 2017, p. 287, figure 3) –. 6 After the main characteristics of the new price index have been examined and the most important differences with Hamilton’s series have been outlined, an attempt can be made to establish the chronological limits of the so-called price revolution, and define its different stages. Although most specialists agree that the price revolution began in the period 1516–1520 (Munro 2007, p. 5), this study has tried to see whether this tallies with Sevillian wheat price data between 1450 and 1550 (Figure 3). Wheat is the only commodity for which I have continuous price data for the second half of the fifteenth century. The purpose of this exercise is to ascertain whether inflationist tendencies may have begun before the sixteenth century. As Figure 3 illustrates, wheat prices tended to decrease between 1469 and 1496. Between 1496 and 1504 wheat prices tended to rise sharply, coincident with the agrarian crisis of 1502–1508 (González Jiménez 1976, p. 14), but it was not until 1514 that the series adopts a clear upward trend. This date coincides with the new price index (Figure 1), as such, 1514 seems like the most appropriate date to establish the beginning of the price revolution. <INSERT FIGURE 3 HERE> Figure 3: Wheat prices in Carmona and Seville, 1456–1550. Index numbers, base 100 = 1461– 70 average. Source: González Jiménez (1976) and González-Mariscal (2013) The inflationist process that characterized the sixteenth century can be regarded to have ended by 1603 (Figure 1), when the prices began decreasing until 1615 – the average inflation rate during this period was -0.5 per cent –. It can be said that in 1615 the vellón inflation began in Seville. Overall, prices in Seville increased between 1514 and 1603 by a factor of 7.13, instead of Hamilton's 3.74. Therefore, prices increased almost twice as much as hitherto believed. On the other hand, CAGR during this period was 2.23 per cent, while during the so-called vellón inflation (1615–1679) it was 1.01 per cent (González- Mariscal 2017). Once the chronological limits of the sixteenth-century inflationist process have been defined, the next step is to define its different stages. In order to do this, the evolution of prices in Seville between 1501 and 1800 has previously been analysed (González- Mariscal 2013, p. 163–165), and the annual inflation rates and their 11-year moving 7 averages calculated. The latter oscillate between 7.33 per cent in 1645 and -6.91 per cent in 1684, with an average of 1.59 per cent. Following this, the 289 data points have been grouped according to the classification of Table 1. I have established that the notion of high inflation – and, therefore, “price revolution” – applies when the moving average is in excess of 2 per cent in three consecutive years. In this way, the price revolution can be circumscribed to the periods 1514–1526, 1540–1560, 1575–1587 and 1598–1602 (Figure 2). Concerning the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, and based on the classification illustrated in Table 1, the most acutely inflationary periods were 1637–1650, 1660–1664 and 1697–1700. The factors which may be regarded as responsible for each of the inflationary processes during the “price revolution” will be analysed in the next section. <INSERT TABLE 1 HERE> Table 1. Classification of inflation In Seville, 1501–1800, based on 11-year moving averages (by percentage). Source: González-Mariscal (2013) The Four Inflationary Waves and their Causes The first inflationist wave, 1515–1526: the combined effects of a deep agrarian crisis and the impact of German silver Since American silver did not start arriving in large quantities until the 1540s, the advocates of monetarist theories have explained the inflationary process of 1516–1520 as a combined effect of: 1) the sharp increase in silver and copper production in southern Germany and Central Europe between the 1460s and the 1540s (Munro 1994, 2003, 2007; Hatcher 1996; Nightingale 1997); and 2) changes in private and public finance in the early sixteenth century (Munro 1991b; Van de Wee 1963, 2000). Those economic historians who do not concur with these arguments, on the other hand, have blamed the increase in prices largely on demographic growth (Nadal 1959; Brenner 1961; Vilar 1969; Ramsay 1971). How these theories tally with the new price curve in Seville is now examined. If we analyse the relationship between silver production in southern Germany and Central Europe between 1471 and 1540 (Munro 2003, p. 43–44) and the evolution of wheat prices in Seville or the new CPI, the following conclusions may be drawn (Table 2): first, 8 between 1471 and 1500 the increase in silver production ran parallel to a sharp drop in the price of wheat; and second, between 1501 and 1540, there is a hard correlation between increases in silver production and prices (R-squared = 0.86). Based on these conclusions, it can be argued that the abundance of Central European silver may have had an effect on Sevillian prices from 1500 onwards. This idea finds support if we analysed the relationship between the production of precious metals in America (TePaske 2010) and prices in Seville between 1501 and 1550, or the relationship between the arrival of precious metal to Spain (Hamilton 1983) and price levels in Seville. The correlation is considerably lower in both cases (R-squared = 0.29 and 0.35, respectively). This seems to indicate that the main background factor in the inflationist process of the period 1515– 1526 in Seville were chiefly to do with the growth in silver production in southern Germany and Central Europe. <INSERT TABLE 2 HERE> Table 2. Precious metals (in million of pesos of 272 maravedíes) and Seville prices (index numbers, base 100 = 1501–1510 average), 1471–1610. Key: I. World Silver and Gold Production; II. American Silver and Gold Output; III. Imports of Gold and Silver to Seville; IV. Silver Output from the Major South German and Central European Mines; V. Consumer Price Index in Seville (Mariscal); and VI. Wheat prices in Seville and Carmona Sources: Tepaske (2010); Hamilton (1983); Munro (2003); González-Mariscal (2015, 2017); and González Jiménez (1976) At this point, a problem that underlies this whole section is encountered for the first time: namely, the only feasible way of approaching money supply is to use production and import data for precious metals. In order to get a more accurate view, we would also need data concerning the export of these same metals, and existing stocks. This would give us some indication of the changes in net stock and thus its influence on the price index. And even if this information were available, it would still have to be taken into consideration that silver and gold stock is not the same as coined money, and that coined money is not the same as money supply. Therefore, using the import or production of precious metals as a way of approaching money supply can be a problem when we try to understand what the causes of the price revolution were. 9 Concerning the European “financial revolution” of the early sixteenth century, it must be stressed that changes largely linked to an improvement of “negotiability” of private financial products and a better organization of markets for public debt instruments. These changes led to an expansion of credit. The beginning of changes in private financial transactions can be traced back to Antwerp in 1507 (Munro 2007, p. 9). It is unclear whether these changes affected the operation of public and private finances in Spain during the early sixteenth century, and what effect they may have had on the expansion of credit and on the increase in prices in Seville 5 . Concerning the argument that population growth may have been the cause of the sharp increase in prices, it must be stressed that, during the first three decades of the sixteenth century, Seville, and western Andalusia in general, lost population, owing to recurrent and severe agrarian crises, epidemics, and emigration towards America (Carmona 2000, 2004). Figure 4 illustrates the index of baptisms in Seville and western Andalusia between 1501 and 1610. The curve seems to confirm this demographic trend, that is, that significant population growth did not begin until the 1530s, which would argue against the idea that inflation was caused by population growth. If we examine the earliest inflationary wave in the sixteenth century as described by the new price index (1514–1526), we can see that, during this period, prices increased by 63 per cent, that is, a 4.1 per cent annual rate. The products whose prices increased the most were bread (171 per cent), fat (85 per cent), and wine, salted cod and sugar (60 per cent each of them). Bread was responsible for 56 per cent of the total increase in prices, wine for 10 per cent, beef for 9 per cent, fat for 6 per cent and salted cod for 5 per cent. That is, these five products were responsible for 86 per cent of the overall increase in prices between 1514 and 1526. The importance of the increase in the price of bread, and its impact on the inflation growth cannot be emphasised enough. The increase in the price of bread in the period 1514–1526 can easily be explained by the severe agrarian crisis that western Andalusia suffered between 1520 and 1522 (González Jiménez 1976). 1521 was especially critical, so much so that the Seville Cathedral 5 In order to corroborate, qualify or rule out this possibility, I am currently working, alongside other researchers from the University of Seville, on a project which aims to reconstruct interest rates in the city during the sixteenth century, based on protests attached to bills of exchange. The aims of the project are twofold: on the one hand, to develop a more accurate approach to money supply than has been possible hitherto; on the other hand, to gain a better understanding of changes in the Spanish financial system. The first results of this study are presented in González-Mariscal et al. (2018). 16 less severe; finally, the 1598–1602 was only a residual aftershock. Each of these inflationist episodes was caused by a different set of factors. 3) The main causes of inflation during the period 1515–1526 are the boom of silver production in southern Germany and Central Europe and the agrarian crisis that devastated the western Andalusian countryside between 1520 and 1522. The first of these processes stated driving prices upwards from the beginning of the century, while the second, although only caused by circumstantial economic conditions, caused a sharp and sudden increase of prices on the side of supply, which placed the price of bread at the centre of the inflationist dynamic. Others factors also contributed, albeit in a minor way, to inflation: the arrival of American gold, the need to meet the American demand, and the beginning of convoy navigation to America. It is also possible that changes undergone by private and public finances in Europe from the beginning of the sixteenth century had an effect on prices by expanding credit, but this is still pending confirmation for Seville. 4) The main causes of inflation during the period 1540–1560 are: the enormous demographic growth witnessed by Seville – during this period the population grew by approximately 80 per cent; the massive arrival of American silver, which increased the money supply to unknown levels; and the operation of the real estate market, which combined a burgeoning demand (following the demographic growth) with a rigid supply, caused by the market’s inability owing to technical difficulties to meet the increase in population, and a concentration of properties in the hands of religious institutions. It is possible that an additional factor also contributed to inflation: income velocity of money. 5) During the third inflationist wave (1575–1587), price increases are again driven by factors on both sides supply and demand. On the one hand, the important agrarian crisis of 1575–1587 drove cereal production down by 32 per cent. On the other hand, money supply enjoyed another boost following the implementation of silver amalgamation in America. In addition, the characteristics of the real estate market led prices to continue growing, despite the fact that population growth had was decelerated. 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