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An axiomatic characterization of the potential decisiveness index

Freixas Bosch, Josep,Pons Navarro, Montserrat

Abstract

Let us consider that somebody is extremely interested in increasing the probability of a proposal to be approved by a certain committee and that to achieve this goal he/she is prepared to pay off one member of the committee. In a situation like this one, and assuming that vote-buying is allowed and free of stigma, which voter should be offered a bribe? The potential decisiveness index for simple games, which measures the effect that ensuring one positive vote produces for the probability of passing the issue at hand, is a good tool with which to acquire the answer. An axiomatic characterization of this index is given in this paper, and its relation to other classical power indices is shown.

Full text

AN AXIOMATIC CHARACTERIZATION OF THE POTENTIAL DECISIVENESS INDEX Josep F eixas and Mon se a Pons∗ No embe 6, 2013 Abs ac Le us conside ha somebody is ex emely in e es ed in inc easing he p ob- abili y o a p oposal o be app o ed by a ce ain commi ee and le us assume ha o achie ing his goal he/she is p epa ed o pay off one membe o he commi ee. In a si ua ion like his one, and assuming ha o e-buying is al- lowed and ee o s igma, which o e should be offe ed a b ibe? The po en ial decisi eness index o simple games, which measu es he effec ha ensu ing one posi i e o e p oduces in he p obabili y o pass he issue a hand, is a good ool o ge he answe . An axioma ic cha ac e iza ion o his index is gi en in his pape , and i s ela ion o o he classical powe indices is showed. Key wo ds: Game heo y, Po en ial decisi eness index; a measu e o b ibes; axioma iza ion; s anda d powe indices; ela ionship among se e al measu es. Ma h. Subj. Class. (2000): 91A12, 91A40, 91A80, 91B12. JEL Classi ica ion Numbe s: C71, D71. ∗“Depa amen de Ma em`a ica Aplicada III i Escola Poli `ecnica Supe io d’Enginye ia de Man- esa (Uni e si a Poli `ecnica de Ca alunya).” Spain. Resea ch pa ially suppo ed by “Minis e io de Econom´ıa y Compe i i idad p oyec o MTM2012-34426/FEDER” and “Go e n de la Gene ali- a de Ca alunya SGR 2009–1029”. E-mails: josep. [email protected], mon se a [email protected] 1 In oduc ion Assume ha a p oposal has o be submi ed o a fini e se o o e s, ha each o e has an independen a p io i p obabili y o o ing in a o o he p oposal and ha some o ing ules a e es ablished o deciding i he p oposal will ei he be accep ed o ejec ed a e he o es a e cas . Suppose now ha an ex e nal influence is able o inc ease ill 1 he p obabili y o a o e o accep ing he p oposal. O cou se, i his happens, and his o e has e en a small influence in he final esul , he p obabili y o he p oposal being app o ed will inc ease. The amoun o his inc easing effec is ob iously no he same o all o he o e s. I depends on how c ucial is his/he o e and i also depends on his/he ini ial p obabili y o o e o he p oposal. A new index Ω o measu ing po en ial decisi eness o o e s in his con ex was in oduced in [22], and i was p o ed ha ensu ing he a o able o e o he o e wi h maximum Ω–measu e is he way o ob ain he g ea es inc emen in he p obabili y o ge ing he p oposal app o ed. Example 1.1 Assume ha a ju y has o ake a decision on a case. Fo pu poses o he example, we will suppose he e a e 4 ju o s, one o whom is he p esiden o he ju y. Each ju o will o e o ei he con ic ion o acqui al and he ou come o he o e will be he majo i y decision o he ju y. Because ies a e possible, hese will be esol ed by he cas ing o e o he p esiden , i.e., he p esiden plays he ole o ieb eake in he ju y. Assume u he ha an ex e nal pe son, who is e y in e es ed in he e dic o he ial, es ima es ha he p esiden will o e o acqui al wi h p obabili y 1−p, while he o he 3 ju o s will o e o acqui al wi h an equal p obabili y p. I he ou side conside s he possibili y o b ibing one o he ju o s o ensu e his/he o e o acqui al wi h p obabili y 1, which one o he ju o s would he/she a he selec o be offe ed he b ibe: he p esiden o any o he o he h ee ju o s? Some esul s in [23] allow us o selec a lis o o e s o be pe suaded, gi en any pa icula anking o hei p edic ions, and his p ocedu e, which can be easily implemen ed in a compu e , can be applied in an analogous way o selec a lis o o e s o be b ibed, i.e. o e s wi h maximum alue o he Ω–measu e. We e e o hese wo pape s o mo e examples abou he applicabili y o he Ω–measu e. 2 The usual model o a o ing scena io like he one desc ibed is a simple game, ha is o say, a pai (N, W), whe e N={1,2, . . . , n}deno es he se o o e s, and Wis he se o winning coali ions, i.e., se s o o e s whose a o able o e ensu es he accep a ion o he p oposal. Subse s o N ha a e no in Wa e called losing coali ions, and i is assumed ha : 1) ∅is losing; 2) subse s o losing coali ions a e again losing (mono onici y). I is assumed ha W =∅, so ha Nis always a winning coali ion. A winning coali ion is minimal i each p ope subse is a losing coali ion. The se o minimal winning coali ions is usually deno ed by Wm, and, because o mono onici y, i comple ely de e mines he game. Gi en S⊆N,S=∅, he S–unanimi y game (N, US) is he game which has Sas he unique minimal winning coali ion. I S=N he game (N, UN) is jus called he unanimi y game. A o e i∈Nis null in (N, W) i idoes no belong o any minimal winning coali ion, and i is a e oe i i belongs o all o hem. I is clea ha in he S–unanimi y game (N, US) all o e s in N Sa e null and all o e s in Sa e e oe s. Classically, he only elemen s which a e aken in o accoun o define he powe o a pa icula o e ia e he se No all o e s and he o ing ule, defined by he se Wo winning coali ions. The defini ions o powe indices y o eflec diffe en aspec s o powe . Mos o hem ely on he idea o measu ing decisi eness (see [33] [29], [34], [5], [14] o [15] among o he s), bu o he aspec s like success ha e also been used ([31], [18], [9], [7], [8], [35], [24]). The e exis ano he app oach, which we call he con ex ual app oach, ha akes in o accoun , o measu e he powe o a o e i, no only he elemen s Nand Wbu also a p obabili y dis ibu ion po e he o e configu a ions ha can eme ge. This con ex ual amewo k was in oduced, as a as we know, by La uelle and Valenciano ([26]), al hough some au ho s had al eady conside ed his kind o powe indices be o e, wi h diffe en p obabili y dis ibu ions ([18], [35]). When independence o o e ’s o es is assumed hen he p obabili y dis ibu ion po e he o e configu a ions is comple ely de e mined by he p oba- bili ies ec o p= (p1, . . . , pn)∈[0,1]n, whe e piis he a p io i p obabili y o each o e i o o ing in a o o he p oposal. Ei he in he classical app oach o in he con ex ual one, a powe index can also be defined by a se o p ope ies which uniquely cha ac e ize i . This has been done o mos o he classical indices, in pa icula he fi s axioma iza ion o he Shapley–Shubik index on simple games was gi en in [17] and he fi s one o he Banzha index in [18] (diffe en al e na i e axioma iza ions ha e been p oposed, see 3 o example [32], [19]). In he con ex ual app oach, a decisi eness index, which ex ends he Banzha index, was p oposed in [18] and axioma ized in [10], diffe en success indices we e in oduced in [26] and axioma ized in [2], and he po en ial decisi eness index was in oduced in [22] and an axioma iza ion o i is p esen ed in his wo k. The pape is o ganized as ollows. In Sec ion 2 he defini ion and he mo i a ion o he po en ial decisi eness a e ecalled. An axioma ic cha ac e iza ion o his measu e is es ablished in Sec ion 3, and he independence o he axioms is p o ed. Sec ion 4 is de o ed o ela e his index wi h he classical Banzha and Shapley– Shubik indices, and Sec ion 5 summa izes he con en s o he pape and poin s ou some u u e ques ions o wo k on. 2 The Ωmeasu e o po en ial decisi eness Le (N, W) be a simple game, whe e N={1,2, . . . , n}deno es he se o o e s (we assume ha n≥2) and Wis he se o winning coali ions. Assume ha each o e ’s o e is independen o he o he s’ and le pibe he a p io i p obabili y o o e i o o ing in a o o he p oposal. Ou con ex ual model is a iple (N, W,p), whe e (N, W) is he simple game and p= (p1, . . . , pn)∈[0,1]nis he p obabili ies ec o . In [10] and [11], his iple is called assessed simple game and we also use his nomencla u e in his pape . The se o all assessed simple games is deno ed by ASG. Unde he assump ion o independence o o e ’s o es, he p obabili y o a p oposal being accep ed in (N, W,p) is gi en by (N, W,p) = ∑ S∈W ∏ i∈S pi∏ i/∈S (1 −pi).(1) The unc ion is he mul ilinea ex ension (MLE) o he simple game (N, W) which was in oduced by Owen in [28] in he gene al con ex o coope a i e games. The MLE o a simple game is a polynomial unc ion. Thus, i is con inuous in i s domain [0,1]nand diffe en iable in (0,1)n. I e ifies wo ypes o mono onici y p ope ies: • (N, W,p)≤ (N, W′,p) i W ⊆ W′, 4 • (N, W,p)≤ (N, W,p′) i p≤p′(componen wise). We will use (p) ins ead o (N, W,p) whene e he e is no possible misunde - s anding. The inc emen on he p obabili y (p) due o an inc emen ∆pion piis: ∆i (p) = (p+ ∆i(p)) − (p) = i(p)∆pi(2) whe e ∆i(p) = (0, . . . , 0,∆pi,0, . . . , 0), and is ands o he pa ial de i a i e o wi h espec o he componen i, which is non-nega i e. No e ha ∆i (p) depends on i(p) bu also on he alues ∆pi ha is possible o achie e. Indeed, i is ob ious ha i pi= 1 no inc ease o his p obabili y is possible, while i pi= 0 we can hink o an inc ease ∆pi= 1. So he po en ial decisi eness impo ance o a o e idepends on wo ac o s: he a e o change i(p) and he a p io i p obabili y pi. This is he mo i a ion gi en in [22] o defining he index Ω in he ollowing way: De ini ion 2.1 The po en ial decisi eness index Ω is he map ha assigns o e e y (N, W,p)∈ASG a ec o Ω(N, W,p)∈[0,1]ndefined by: Ωi(N, W,p) = (1 −pi) i(p). The unc ion Ω is, o any fixed game (N, W), a con inuous unc ion on [0,1]n, di - e en iable o any o de in i s in e io (0,1)n. F om (2) i is clea ha Ωi(N, W,p) = (1i,p)− (p), whe e (1i,p) deno es he alue o on he ec o (1i,p) ob ained om pby eplacing piwi h 1. Thus, his index gi es p ecisely he inc emen o (p) ob ained by only changing he i–componen o p om pi o 1. Co olla y 3.3 in [22] shows ha 0 ≤Ωi(N, W,p)≤1, whe e 0 is only achie ed o null o e s o o any o he o e wi h pi= 1 (i.e., pu e yes– o e s), whe eas 1 is only achie ed o a dic a o being a pu e no- o e (i.e., Wm={{i}} and pi= 0). As he diffe ence (1i,p)− (p) o , equi alen ly, Ωi(N, W,p) equals he inc ease o p obabili y o he issue a hand o be passed when only o e ichanges his/he o e om pi o 1, Ω is he mos na u al measu e, om he p obabilis ic poin o iew, o b ibes o o e buying in he con ex o assessed simple games, when he alleged b ibe is in e es ed in app o ing he p oposal. Once s a ed ha his obse a ion in e ms o p obabili y is he main suppo o his measu e, we addi ionally p opose in his pape a fi s axioma ic cha ac e iza ion o i . Thus, om he esul s o his 5 pape , he index Ω has suppo om bo h app oaches, p obabilis ic and axioma ic. Needless o say ha finding o he axioma iza ions o Ω is an open issue. This wo old cha ac e iza ion is a na u al p ocedu e o he jus ifica ion o well known powe indices in simple games. Fo ins ance, ei he he Banzha o he wo Coleman’s powe indices admi se e al axioma ic cha ac e iza ions bu also a p obabilis ic in e p e a ion, see e.g. [27]. We also e e he in e es ed eade o [22] and [23] o addi ional heo e ical in o ma ion abou Ω, which, as a as we know, is he only ool exp essly in oduced o measu e he po en ial decisi eness o o e s in he con ex o assessed simple games. No e ha i he alleged b ibe was in e es ed in de ea ing he p oposal (ins ead o app o ing i ) hen he diffe ence (p)− (0i,p) would be he app op ia e measu e because i gi es he inc ease o p obabili y, in absolu e alue, o he issue a hand o be de ea ed when only o e ichanges his/he o e om pi o 0. In his las exp ession, (0i,p) deno es he alue o on he ec o (0i,p) ob ained om pby eplacing piwi h 0. This measu e o assessed simple games is somehow analogous o Ω because, by applying (2) wi h ∆i(p) = (0, . . . , 0,−pi,0, . . . , 0), we ob ain (p)− (0i,p) = pi i(p). Be o e con inuing wi h he axioma ic cha ac e iza ion le us e u n o Exam- ple 1.1. Example 2.2 (Example 1.1 e isi ed) Fo he o ing sys em in Example 1.1, we ha e N={1,2,3,4}, whe e 1deno es he p esiden , W={{1,2},{1,3},{1,4},{1,2,3},{1,2,4},{1,3,4},{2,3,4},{1,2,3,4}}.1 Fo his game, exp ession (1) gi es: (p) = p1p2+p1p3+p1p4−p1p2p3−p1p2p4−p1p3p4+p2p3p4. Thus, he pa ial de i a i es a e: 1(p) = p2+p3+p4−p2p3−p2p4−p3p4, 2(p) = p1−p1p3−p1p4+p3p4, 3(p) = p1−p1p2−p1p4+p2p4, 4(p) = p1−p1p2−p1p3+p2p3. Le us conside now he pa icula alue o p= (1 −p, p, p, p) o some 0<p<1. Fo his p obabili y ec o we ha e: 1(p) = 3p(1 −p)and 2(p) = 3(p) = 4(p) = 1This game can also be ep esen ed by he weigh ed game wi h ep esen a ion [3; 2,1,1,1]. 6 1−3p+3p2.Thus, we can compa e he po en ial decisi eness index o he p esiden , i.e., playe 1, wi h he po en ial decisi eness index o any o he ju o . Wi hou loss o gene ali y we ake playe 4: Ω1(N, W,p) = (1 −p1) 1(p)=3p2(1 −p), Ω4(N, W,p) = (1 −p4) 4(p)=1−4p+ 6p2−3p3. Thus, Ω1(N, W,p)−Ω4(N, W,p) = −3p2+ 4p−1and Ω1(N, W,p)−Ω4(N, W,p)>0⇔p∈(1/3,1), Ω1(N, W,p)−Ω4(N, W,p)<0⇔p∈(0,1/3). Hence, acco ding o he po en ial decisi eness index, he p esiden o he ju o is he bes candida e o be b ibed in (N, W,p)i p > 1/3, while o p < 1/3any o he ju o should be chosen as a candida e o be b ibed. No e also ha he maximum diffe ence in he in e al (1/3,1) is achie ed o p= 2/3. We ema k ha compu ing he MLE o a simple game is a complex ask when he numbe o a iables in ol ed is high. Some bounds a e ob ained in [20], and a ious compu a ion me hods can be ound, in ano he con ex , in [6] and [25]. F om now on we es ic ou wo k in p o ing some p ope ies o he Ω measu e, and in gi ing an axioma ic cha ac e iza ion o i . 3 Axioma ic cha ac e iza ion o he Ωmeasu e In his sec ion we es ablish some ma hema ical p ope ies o he Ω measu e and use hem o gi e an axioma ic cha ac e iza ion o i . These p ope ies a e consequence o some cha ac e is ics o he MLE o a simple game ha we collec in he ollowing lemma. The fi s pa will be used in he axioma iza ion o his index, while he second pa is basic o es ablishing he ela ionship o he Ω measu e wi h he Shapley-Shubik index. Lemma 3.1 Le (N, W,p)be an assessed simple game and (N, W,p)i s MLE as defined in (1). (a) I (N, W,p)is ano he assessed simple game, hen (N, W ∪ W,p) + (N, W ∩ W,p) = (N, W,p) + (N, W,p). 7 (b) I π:N→Nis a pe mu a ion on N, hen (N, π(W),p) = (N, W, π(p)), whe e π(W) = {π(S)|S∈ W} and, π(p) = (pπ(1), . . . , pπ(n)). P oo : (a) Fo any subse Ao 2Nwe define (N, A,p) = ∑ S∈A ∏ i∈S pi∏ i/∈S (1 −pi). I (N, A) is a simple game hen is i s MLE as defined in (1). I is also clea ha i {W1,W2}is a pa i ion o W hen (N, W,p) = (N, W1,p) + (N, W2,p). Thus, (N, W ∪ W,p) = (N, W W,p) + (N, W W,p) + (N, W ∩ W,p) = (N, W,p)− (N, W ∩ W,p)+ (N, W,p)− (N, W ∩ W,p)+ (N, W ∩ W,p) = (N, W,p) + (N, W,p)− (N, W ∩ W,p). (b) F om (1) we can w i e (N, π(W),p) = ∑ S∈π(W)∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S (1 −pk) = ∑ π−1(S)∈W ∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S (1 −pk) =∑ S∈W ∏ k∈π(S) pk∏ k/∈π(S) (1 −pk) = ∑ S∈W ∏ π−1(k)∈S pk∏ π−1(k)/∈S (1 −pk) = (N, W, π(p))  In he ollowing heo em, ou basic p ope ies o he po en ial decisi eness index Ω a e es ablished. We will p o e la e ha hese axioms comple ely cha ac e ize his index. In he ollowing defini ion we in oduce some new concep s needed o enounce he heo em. De ini ion 3.2 Le i∈Nand N−i=N {i}. The new game (N−i,W−i) is defined by S∈ W−ii and only i S⊆N−iand S∪ {i} ∈ W The game (N−i,W−i) is he educed game o (N, W) de e mined by N {i}as defined in [36]. The no a ion we use is bo owed om [10]. 8 Theo em 3.3 Le (N, W,p)∈ASG and Ωbe he po en ial decisi eness index. (A1) Null o e p ope y: I jis null in (N, W) hen Ωj(N, W,p) = 0. (A2) Ex e nal null o e p ope y. I jis null in (N, W) hen Ωi(N, W,p) = Ωi(N−j,W−j,p−j) o any i∈N(i=j), whe e he j h componen o phas been dele ed in p−j. (A3) T ans e p ope y: I (N, W)is ano he simple game, hen Ω(N, W ∪ W,p) + Ω(N, W ∩ W,p) = Ω(N, W,p) + Ω(N, W,p). (A4) Unanimi y p ope y: I (N, UN) is he unanimi y game hen Ωi(N, UN,p) = (1 −pi)∏ k∈N k=i pk o all i∈N. P oo : We s a by p o ing ha i jis null in (N, W), hen (N, W,p) = (N−j,W−j,p−j). I jis null in (N, W) hen i can no belong o any minimal winning coali ion, so ha S∈ W and j∈Simplies ha S {j} ∈ W. Thus, we can w i e: (N, W,p) = ∑ S∈W j /∈S∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S (1 −pk) + ∑ S∈W j∈S∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S (1 −pk) = (1 −pj)∑ S∈W j /∈S∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S k=j (1 −pk) + pj∑ S∈W j /∈S∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S k=j (1 −pk) =∑ S∈W j /∈S∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S k=j (1 −pk) = ∑ S∈W−j∏ k∈S pk∏ k/∈S (1 −pk) = (N−j,W−j,p−j). (3) (A1) I jis null in (N, W) hen, om (3), i is clea ha pjdoes no appea in he exp ession o (N, W,p) so ha i s co esponding pa ial de i a i e j(N, W,p) = 0. Thus Ωj(N, W,p) = 0. (A2) I jis null in (N, W), hen, om (3), (N, W,p) = (N−j,W−j,p−j), and he e o e hei espec i e pa ial de i a i es wi h espec o any componen i=j coincide. Thus, Ωi(N, W,p) = Ωi(N−j,W−j,p−j) o any i=j. 9 [7] B. Ba y. Is i be e o be powe ull o lucky? pa i. Poli ical S udies, pages 183–194, 1980. [8] B. Ba y. Is i be e o be powe ull o lucky? pa ii. Poli ical S udies, pages 338–352, 1980. [9] S.J. B ams and M. Lake. 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