Modelling of long term low water level in mountain river catchments area

Modelling o long e m low wa e le el in he moun ain i e ca chmen s a ea Ma ek T. Kopacz 1) , Zbigniew Kowalewski 1) , Luis San os 2) , Robe Mazu 1) , Vasco Lopes 3) , Agnieszka Kowalczyk 4) , Dominika Ba -Michalczyk 4) 1) AGH Uni e si y o Science and Technology, Facul y o Mining Su eying and En i onmen al Enginee ing, Mickiewicza 30, 30-059, K aków, Poland 2) Poly echnic Ins i u e o Toma , Depa amen o A queologia, Conse ação e Res au o e Pa imónio, Po ugal 3) Poly echnic Ins i u e o Toma , School o Technology, Po ugal 4) Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e, Falen y, H abska A . 3, 09-090 Raszyn, Poland RECEIVED 28.10.2021 REVIEWED 10.11.2021 ACCEPTED 10.12.2021 Abs ac : Changing a mosphe ic condi ions, including abo e all he deepening ex eme wea he phenomena, a e inc easing om yea o yea . This, in consequence, causes an inc ease in he incidence o low ou lows. The s udy compa es low wa e le els o wo ca chmen s: Biała Woda and Cza na Woda, and phospho us and ni ogen load using he Nu ien Deli e y Ra io (NDR) model in InVEST so wa e. The objec i e o he NDR is o map nu ien sou ces om ca chmen a ea and ans e o he i e bed. The nu ien loads (ni ogen and phospho us) sp ead ac oss he landscape a e de e mined based on a land use (LULC) map and associa ed loading a es desc ibed in li e a u e. The s udies ha e shown ha low wa e le els ha e been mo e common ecen ly and pose he g ea es h ea o he biological li e in he aqua ic ecosys ems. The s uc u e o land use is also o g ea impo ance, wi h a signi ican impac on he uno and ni ogen and phospho us load. Phospho us and uno om su ace sou ces o he wa e o Biała Woda and Cza na Woda ca chmen s a ea has been educed in o es ed a eas. Only highe un-o s a e obse ed in he esiden ial buildings zone. The ni ogen load was also g ea e in he lowe (es ua y) pa s o bo h ca chmen s, whe e esiden ial buildings domina e. Keywo ds: land use changes, low wa e le el, ni ogen load, phospho us load, small moun ain ca chmen s INTRODUCTION Moun ain egions wi h ha sh en i onmen al condi ions, s eep, sloping sides, di e si ied habi a s and low human occupa ion, play an impo an ole a comple e ange o Ecosys em Se ices (ES), wi h eshwa e being one o he mos impo an se ices [EGAN, PRICE (eds.) 2017; GAGLIO e al. 2019]. Low en i onmen al impac on such egions is pa amoun o main ain heal hy ES in eshwa e sou ces, howe e human occupa ion and ac i i ies such as ag icul u e and o he land occupa ion changes ecosys em ups eam and c ea e p essu es on a i icial wa e ese oi s whe e nu ien s a e s o ed in he sedimen bed due o hyd ologic lo ic o len ic modi ica ion o eshwa e habi a s [MAAVARA e al. 2020; LEHNER e al. 2011; MUHAMMED e al. 2021]. Clima e change, in pa icula al eady de ec ed ex eme wea he phenomena, a ec moun ain habi a s al e ing hyd ologic egimes and biogeochemical cycles. They include, bu a e no limi ed o sho -li ed o en ial ains, which a e ollowed by a equen pe iods o no- ain. This, in consequence, causes an ex ensi e low uno pe iods and an inc ease in he incidence o low wa e le els [KOSMOWSKA e al. 2016; KOSTUCH 2003; YERDELEN e al. 2021], and leads o he educ ion o wa e in ca chmen a ea. Wa e sca ci y impai s ES [BYCZKOWSKI 1996]. The combina ion o land use pa e n modi ica ion and clima e change ela ed o en ial ains ollowed by no ain pe iods con ibu e o JOURNAL OF WATER AND LAND DEVELOPMENT e-ISSN 2083-4535 Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB) JOURNAL OF WATER AND LAND DEVELOPMENT DOI: 10.24425/jwld.2021.139033 2021, No. 51 (X–XII): 225–232 © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) de e io a ion o ese oi wa e quali y and ecosys ems, mos ly associa ed wi h P and N accumula ion in ese oi s [BOIX-FAYOS e al. 2020; KISTNER e al. 2013]. Many egions o he wo ld depend on moun ains o p o ide he minimum supply o wa e . Wi h clima e change and popula ion g ow h, coun ies which ha e ne e expe ienced se e e ES deg ada ion, a e now acing se ious challenges while a emp ing o eco e om many yea s o inadequa e land managemen p ac ices. In he s udy, use o he new echnology con ibu es o he quick and ee o cha ge analysis p o iding moni o ing ools and solu ion design s a egies. The Millenium Ecosys em Assessmen [CARPENTER e al. 2009] aised se e al ed lags and om he ga he ed da a an open sou ce so wa e p og ammes we e p oduced such as In eg a ed Valua ion o Ecosys em Se ices and T adeo s (InVEST) [S an o d Uni e si y unda ed]. I o e s a sui e o models used o map and alue he “goods and se ices” om na u e ha sus ain and ul il human li e. Based on he long- e m hyd ological and chemical pa ame e s moni o ing he model o o al phospho us and ni ogen deli e y a io om su ace a ea in small moun ain ca chmen s has been simula ed. The Nu ien Deli e y Ra io (NDR) om InVEST esh- wa e models will allows o e alua e he deli e y o h ee ecosys em se ices in he basin: one supply (wa e ), and wo egula ing (e osion con ol and wa e pu i ica ion). They a e essen ial se ices. A wa e sca ci y can limi indus ial ac i i y, human wa e consump ion and ag icul u e ac i i ies which also con ibu e o he deg ada ion o wa e quali y [GAGLIO e al. 2019; KALICKI e al. 2020; SALLUSTIO e al. 2017]. E osion is also a majo conce n, and is expec ed o inc ease due o inc easing land-use changes and lood equency [LLENA e al. 2019]. The s udy aimed o analyse he equency o low wa e occu ences in wo small moun ain ca chmen s and i s impac on he ecosys em se ices. I also helped o de e mine wha pa s o he basin a e mos ly impac ed by he obse ed changes o hyd ology and land use. The s udy c ea es he basis o mi iga ion s a egies in he u u e. The assessmen o he ni ogen and phospho us loads in oduced om he ca chmen a ea o he su ace wa e s o ms impo an pa o he s udy. STUDY MATERIAL AND METHODS RESEARCH AREA The esea ch a ea is wi hin he Polish Wes e n Ca pa hians, in pa icula he wo adjacen upland ca chmen s o he Biała Woda and Cza na Woda s eams loca ed on he igh -bank o he Dunajec Ri e , as pa o he G ajca ek hyd og aphic basin (Fig. 1). The a eas o bo h ca chmen s a e simila in size 10.91 km 2 and 11.66 km 2 espec i ely (Tab. 1). © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Fig. 1. Ca chmen s o Biała Woda and Cza na Woda – G ajca ek, sou ce: own elabo a ion Table 1. Basic mo phome ic pa ame e s o ca chmen No Ca chmen s eam A ea (km 2 ) A e age slope inclina ion (%) A e age ele a ion 1) (m a.s.l.) A e age s eam slope (%) Densi y o i e ne wo k (km·km –2 ) S eam lengh (km) 1 Biała Woda 10.91 24 842 4.43 3.15 7.93 2 Cza na Woda 11.66 31 895 7.51 2.38 6.95 1) KUREK, PAWLIK-DOBROWOLSKI [1990]. Sou ce: own s udy. 226 Modelling o long e m low wa e le el in he moun ain i e ca chmen s a ea Table 1 shows he basic mo phome ic ea u es o bo h ca chmen s, sha ing simila cha ac e is ics, being he majo di e ence he a e age slope dec ease o he wa e cou se which is 4.43% o he Biała Woda ca chmen and 7.51% o he Cza na Woda. The a e age slope o he wa e cou se pa ame e is impo an when analysing he d ainage low dep h and eloci y. The landco e o he Biała Woda and Cza na Woda d ainage basins is a mos ly o es and pas u es [TWARDY e al. 2002], whe e bo h hese landuse o ms accoun o o e 90% o he o al a ea o bo h ca chmen s. Howe e , di e ing signi ican ly in o es co e , whe e in he Cza na Woda ca chmen , be ween 1950 and 1960, i was wice as la ge as he Biała Woda ca chmen . Recen ly his di e ence has na owed o a ound 26%, hough s ill signi ican . Meadows and pas u es p edomina e in he Biała Woda ca chmen , whe e hei a ea is 3.5 imes la ge han in Cza na Woda ca chmen . O he o ms o land use occupy mino a eas (Tab. 2). Analysing he landuse s uc u e o bo h ca chmen s o he las hal -cen u y (Tab. 2), signi ican changes in he p opo ion be ween o es a ea and g assland a e obse ed, which o i s o en-non-ag icul u al ole a e conside ed g asslands. Bo h ca chmen s display signi ican changes in landuse, whe e seconda y succession p ocesses con ibu ed o he inc ease in o es co e in he Cza na and Biała Woda ca chmen a eas. STUDY METHODS This wo k uses 67 yea s o landuse (1950–2017) om Co ine Landco e and he Polish Ins i u e o echnology and Li e Sciences da a, oge he wi h 48 yea s o hyd ologic da a (1971– 2018), om he Polish Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences o 2 wa e sheds in Poland sha ing simila cha ac e is ics, hough wi h di e en his o ical landuse. The s udies co e ed he his o ical pe iod, hyd ological yea s 1971–2018, a ull 48 yea s (da a om Resea ch S a ion in Jawo ki – Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences, Malopolska Resea ch Cen e). In selec ed analyses, he en i e s udy pe iod was di ided in o six equal eigh -yea in e als ha co esponded o he hyd ological cycles o low wa e occu ence in bo h s udied ca chmen s. The in e als o hyd ological yea s: 1971–1978 (pe iod 1); 1979–1986 (pe iod 2); 1987–1994 (pe iod 3); 1995– 2002 (pe iod 4); 2003–2010 (pe iod 5) and 2011–2018 (pe iod 6). The a e age uni uno om he Biała Woda ca chmen a ea o many yea s is 16.98 dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 , while om Cza na Woda is 19.50 dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 (Tab. 3). The iden i ica ion o low wa e s equi ed he se ing o equal c i e ia. The shallow low wa e s limi alue was adop ed a he le el o he uppe limi o low uni ou lows o he supe io ca chmen – he G ajca ek s eam [BAJKIEWICZ-GRABOWSKA, MIKULSKI 1999]. A e con e sion – low lows conce n all uni ou lows smalle han 5.17 dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 om he Biała Woda ca chmen a ea and less han 8.35 dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 om he Cza na Woda ca chmen [KOSTUCH 2003]. In hese anges o uni ou lows, hey we e called shallow low wa e s. The d ain hyd og aphs we e analysed wi h a minimum du a ion o 7 days [DYNOWSKA 1971]. The low wa e s also include he pe iod be ween neighbou ing shallow low wa e s wi h an ou low g ea e han low wa e s, bu smalle han he a e age uni ou low om many yea s, i i s du a ion did no exceed wo days [OZGA-ZIELIŃSKA 1990; OZGA-ZIELIŃSKA, BRZEZIŃSKI, 1997]. The ou low hyd og aphs a e shown as pe iods o low lows, which co espond o low wa e le els. Low wa e s can be di ided in o shallow and deep. Shallow low wa e s occu when he wa e le els in he i e change be ween he lowe limi o medium and medium-low le els o a leas se e al days. Deep low wa e s a e hose o which wa e le els a e below medium-low s a es [BAJKIEWICZ-GRABOWSKA, MIKULSKI 1999]. In u n, he limi alues o deep low wa e s we e adop ed a he le el o he a e age low uni ou low, which o he Biała Woda s eam is 2.57 dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 , and o he Cza na Woda s eam 4.85 dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 . The minimum du a ion o he ou low o deep low wa e s was 11 days. Table. 2. Es ima ed, simpli ied s uc u e o land use in esea ch ca chmen s Ca chmen Mean om yea s A ea (km 2 ) Land use a ea (% o al a ea) o es g asslands a able land buil -up a eas o he s Biała Woda 1950–1960 10.91 29.3 58.0 4.6 0.3 7.8 1995–2005 56.2 39.8 0.8 0.5 2.6 2014–2017 62.5 31.6 0.6 1.4 3.9 Cza na Woda 1950–1960 11.66 63.9 34.4 1.1 0.2 0.4 1995–2005 82.9 15.7 0.5 0.8 0.1 2014–2017 88.3 8.4 0.3 1.8 1.2 Sou ce: own elabo a ion. Table 3. Cha ac e is ic discha ges in G ajca ek ca chmen Cha ac e is ic discha ges Speci ic uno s (dm –3 ·s –1 ·km –2 ) Low <8.0 Medium 8.0–29.9 Medium-high 30.0–59.9 High 60.0–79.9 Ve y high 80.0–149.9 Ex emely high >150.0 Sou ce: own elabo a ion based on FIGUŁA [1966]. © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Ma ek T. Kopacz e al. 227 Analysis ega ding he incidence o low wa e s condi ions we e pe o med using he R p og am in e sion 3.5.1 wi h he RS udio in e sion 1.1.456. Da a o ganysa ion and isualysa ion ook place using he idy- e se package, da e con e sion, and analysis was done using he CRHM and hyd os a s pack- ages [BOND 2018; R Co e Team 2018; SHOOK 2016; WICKHAM 2017]. Changes in he concen a ion o o al phospho us and ni ogen load we e also analysed and a ield model o he nu ien deli e y a io o his elemen was de eloped o bo h ca chmen s. The esea ch used he Nu ien Deli e y Ra io (NDR) model in InVEST so wa e, (F eshwa e Quali y Models) [TALLIS e al. 2011]. InVEST ma hema ical models a e spa ially-explici , using maps (GIS) as in o ma ion sou ces and p oducing maps as ou pu s. The objec i e o he NDR is o map nu ien sou ces om ca chmen a ea and hei anspo o he i e bed. In his ma hema ical model applied a simple ma e ial balance app oach, desc ibing he anspo o a mass o nu ien h ough he de ined a ea (in he analysed wa e shed/subwa e shed). The size o he load in he model is p esen ed in kg o subs ance pe 1 con en ional pixel (kg∙px –1 ). The nu ien loads ac oss he landscape, a e de e mined based on a land use (LULC) map and associa ed loading a es desc ibed in li e a u e [BREUER e al. 2008; ENDRENY, WOOD 2003; HAMEL e al. 2015; HAMEL, GUSWA 2015; HAN e al. 2021; HARMEL e al. 2006; ZHANG e al. 2021]. RESULTS The s udy analyses changes in he equency o shallow low wa e s in bo h s udied ca chmen s. Thei seasonal dis ibu ion is simila , low wa e condi ions occu ed in he mon hs om Sep embe o Ma ch. An upwa d end in low wa e s is also no ed in he summe (July, Augus ) since he 1990s. A clea pe iodici y o low wa e occu ence in hyd ological yea s was also obse ed Figu e 2. The e is a pe manen inc ease in he numbe o days du ing which shallow low wa e condi ions occu ed (Fig. 3). In he i s pe iod (1971–1978) in he Biała Woda s eam, he shallow low wa e s las ed a o al o 442 days (15% o he 8 yea s). In he Cza na Woda s eam, 337 days wi h shallow low wa e s we e egis e ed du ing his pe iod (11.5% o he pe iod du a ion). O e he yea s, hese alues inc eased acco dingly – eaching in he six h-pe iod alues o Biała Woda – 857 days (29.3%) and Cza na Woda – up o 1023 days (35% o he en i e pe iod). The shape o summa y cu es shows a signi ican inc ease in days wi h shallow low wa e s bu also cha ac e ises hei seasonal dis ibu ion. In he 70s o he 20 h cen u ies, long, non- discon inuous pe iods o se e al yea s we e eco ded (ho izon al sum cu es, e.g., o ime in e als 1 and 2, i.e. o he yea s 1971– 1986), while he las yea s we e o en low wa e s pe iods sepa a ed by much sho e non-discon inuous pe iods (sho ho izon al sum cu es – Fig. 3). Deep low wa e s in he scale o he analysed pe iod occu ed much less equen ly han shallow low wa e s (Fig. 4). They mainly conce ned au umn and win e mon hs ( om Sep embe o Janua y) and du ing he 48 yea s; hey occu ed spo adically. Deep low wa e s we e eco ded in he mon hs om No embe o Ma ch only in he hyd ological yea s 1985 and 1987. Howe e , i is wo ying ha deep low wa e s we e eco ded mainly in ecen yea s (e.g. 2004, 2012, 2013), bo h in he win e and summe - au umn mon hs, which, gi en he inc easing numbe o shallow low wa e s, gi es a qui e pessimis ic pic u e o u u e hyd ological changes in bo h ca chmen s. A e analysing he deep low wa e s in he se o ime in e als, his un a ou able phenomenon is e en mo e no iceable. A clea inc ease in he numbe o days wi h deep low wa e s in bo h analysed s eams occu ed only ecen ly in he hyd ological yea s 2011–2018 (Fig. 5). Fo hese eigh yea s, he e we e mo e days wi h deep low wa e s han du ing he p e ious i e pe iods, i. e. up o 40 yea s. Bo h shallow (Fig. 3) and deep (Fig. 5) occu mo e equen ly in he Cza na Woda s eam. Phospho us and uno om su ace sou ces o he wa e o Biała Woda and Cza na Woda ca chmen s a ea has been educed in o es ed a eas. Only highe un-o s a e obse ed in he Fig. 2. Occu ence pe iods o shallow low wa e le el in s udied ca chmen s in yea s 1971–2018: a) Biała Woda s eam, b) Cza na Woda s eam; sou ce: own s udy © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) 228 Modelling o long e m low wa e le el in he moun ain i e ca chmen s a ea Fig. 3. Summa y o shallow low wa e le el days o s udied ca chmen s: a) Biała Woda, b) Cza na Woda; sou ce: own s udy Fig. 4. Occu ence pe iods o deep low wa e le el in s udied s eams in yea s 1971–2018: a) Biała Woda s eam, b) Cza na Woda s eam; sou ce: own s udy Fig. 5. Summa y o deep low wa e le el days o s udied s eams: a) Biała Woda, b) Cza na Woda; sou ce: own s udy © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Ma ek T. Kopacz e al. 229 esiden ial buildings zone (Fig. 6). The highe concen a ions o phospho us can be obse ed in he Biała Woda ca chmen , in i s cen al and es ua y pa s, whe e u banised a eas domina e. The ni ogen load was also g ea e in he lowe (es ua y) pa s o bo h ca chmen s, whe e esiden ial buildings domina e. In he emaining pa o he Biała Woda ca chmen (g een a eas, ocks, ex ensi ely used pas u es) he ni ogen load did no exceed 0.006 kg∙px –1 (kilog am pe con en ional pixel). While he minimum inc ease in he ni ogen load is obse ed in he comple ely o es y cen al pa o he Cza na Woda ca chmen (Fig. 7). Fig. 6. Model o o al phospho us deli e y a io om su ace a ea in basin o Biała Woda and Cza na Woda; sou ce: own s udy Fig. 7. Model o o al ni ogen deli e y a io om su ace a ea in basin o Biała Woda and Cza na Woda; sou ce: own s udy © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) 230 Modelling o long e m low wa e le el in he moun ain i e ca chmen s a ea DISCUSSION Small moun ain ca chmen s (Ca pa hian) ha e speci ic hyd o- logical cha ac e is ics. Hyd og ams in moun ain s eams di e in shape and dynamics compa ed o lowland i e s [B AILEY e al. 2003]. To a much g ea e ex en , he size and na u e o he su ace uno om he ca chmen a ea a e de e mined by indi ec ac o s, such as he e ain and he way i is de eloped [BAJKIEWICZ- GRABOWSKA 2008]. I is ob ious ha in moun ain basins we egis e ex eme phenomena mo e o en, bo h loods and low wa e s condi ions. This a iabili y is shaped bo h in he spa ial a ange- men , which was analysed on he example o wo ca chmen s wi h di e en land-use s uc u es, in pa icula in he p opo ion o a o es a ion. Thei size and dis ibu ion we e ypical o moun ain condi ions. The lowes alues we e eco ded in he win e mon hs ( om Janua y o Ma ch), while he highes was in June and July. The seasonal dis ibu ion o low wa e s in bo h esea ch ca chmen s was simila , hey occu ed mainly in he win e , mo e o en in he mo e o es ed Cza na Woda ca chmen . Howe e , since he 1990s, he e has been an upwa d end in low wa e s eme gence, which is also mo e common in summe (July, Augus ). O e he yea s, he empo al na u e o low wa e s also changed – in he 1970s low wa e s we e sepa a ed by long, e en se e al yea s non-discoun pe iods, while ecen ly low wa e s pe iods appea mo e o en and a e sepa a ed by much sho e non-discoun pe iods. The in luence o o es co e on he p opo ions in he occu ence o low wa e s is also no ed. E en in he 1970s, he ba ely o es ed Biała Woda ca chmen a ea eco ded mo e low wa e s han he hea ily o es ed Cza na Woda ca chmen a ea. These changes ha e a posi i e e ec on he s abilysa ion o he biogeochemical cycles o nu ien elemen s [POWERS, MARÍN- SPIOTTA 2017; WINBOURNE e al. 2018; SZALIŃSKA, DOMINIK 2006]. The educ ion o a able and pas u e land is associa ed wi h a educ ion in he expo o mac o and mic oelemen s o he wa e o bo h i e s. E idences om li e a u e, such as he ca chmen a ea o Hubba d B ook (USA), p o ed he ole o plan co e in he cycle o elemen s in na u e. Along wi h con olled logging, he expo s o selec ed elemen s om he a ea o he Hubba d B ook Ri e inc eased signi ican ly [BAILEY e al. 2003; BORMANN, LIKENS 2012; BURTON, LIKENS 1975]. CONCLUSIONS 1. In he las 48 yea s, he e ha e been slow bu consis en hyd o- logical changes in he Ca pa hian d ainage basins. Low wa e le els occu mo e and mo e o en and in he las eigh yea s he occu ence o so-called deep low wa e s, which poses he g ea - es h ea o he biological li e o aqua ic ecosys ems. 2. The inc ease in he numbe o days wi h low wa e le els in bo h ca chmen s p obably be caused by i egula ain all, which was no analysed in his s udy. 3. The impac o a o es a ion on he incidence o low wa e s, compa ed o o he ac o s, is ge ing smalle , and his phenom- enon is no iceable in he en i e Wes e n Ca pa hian egion. This is indica ed by he s udies conduc ed by he Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences in Jawo ki. 4. The land use s uc u e in he las se e al dozen yea s has a signi ican in luence on he uno , as well as ni ogen and phospho us loads. REFERENCES BAILEY A. S. HORNBECK J.W., CAMPBELL J.L., EAGAR C. 2003. Hyd o- me eo ological da abase o Hubba d B ook Expe imen al Fo es , 1955–2000. Gene al Technical Repo NE-305. Delawa e, OH. US Depa men o Ag icul u e, Fo es Se ice, No heas e n Re- sea ch S a ion. DOI 10.2737/NE-GTR-305. BAJKIEWICZ-GRABOWSKA E., MIKULSKI Z. 2008. Hyd ologia ogólna [Gene al hyd ology]. Wa szawa. PWN. ISBN 978-83-01-14579-8 pp. 313. BOIX-FAYOS C., BOERBOOM, L.G.J., JANSSEN R., MARTÍNEZ-MENA M., ALMAGRO M., PÉREZ-CUTILLAS P., EEKHOUT J.P.C., CASTILLO V., DE VENTE J. 2020. Moun ain ecosys em se ices a ec ed by land use changes and hyd ological con ol wo ks in Medi e anean ca chmen s. Ecosys em Se ices. Vol. 44, 101136. DOI 10.1016/j .ecose .2020.101136. BOND N. 2018. Hyd os a s: Hyd ologic indices o daily ime se ies da a. R package e sion 0.2.6 [online]. [Access 31.08.2021]. A ailable a : h ps://CRAN.R-p ojec .o g/package=hyd os a s BORMANN F.H., LIKENS G.E. 2012. Pa e n and p ocess in a o es ed ecosys em: dis u bance, de elopmen and he s eady s a e based on he Hubba d B ook ecosys em s udy. Sp inge Science & Business Media. ISBN 1461262321 pp. 272. BREUER L., VACHÉ K.B., JULICH S., FREDE H.G. 2008. Cu en concep s in ni ogen dynamics o mesoscale ca chmen s. Hyd ological Sciences Jou nal. Vol. 53 p. 1059–1074. DOI 10.1623/hysj .53.5.1059. BURTON T.M., LIKENS G.E. 1975. Ene gy low and nu ien cycling in salamande popula ions in he Hubba d B ook Expe imen al Fo es , New Hampshi e. Ecology. Vol. 56(5) p. 1068–1080. DOI 10.2307/1936147. BYCZKOWSKI A. 1996. Hyd ologia [Hyd ology]. T. 2. Wa szawa. SGGW. ISBN 83-7244-069-7 pp. 356. CARPENTER S.R., MOONEY H.A., AGARD J., CAPISTRANO D., DEFRIES R.S., DÍAZ S., ..., WHYTE A. 2009. Science o managing ecosys em se ices: Beyond he Millennium Ecosys em Assessmen . PNAS. Vol. 106(5) p. 1305–1312. DOI 10.1073/pnas.0808772106. DYNOWSKA I. 1971. Typy eżimów zecznych w Polsce [Types o i e egimes in Poland]. Zeszy y Naukowe Uniwe sy e u Jagielloń- skiego. P ace Geog a iczne. Z. 28 p. 67–81. EGAN P.U., PRICE M.U. (eds.) 2017. Moun ain ecosys em se ices and clima e change: A global o e iew o po en ial h ea s and s a egies o adap a ion [online]. Pa is. UNESCO. ISBN 978-92- 3-100225-0 pp. 32. [Access 10.09.2021]. A ailable a : h ps:// unesdoc.unesco.o g/a k:/48223/p 0000248768news/clima e- change-impac s-majo -moun ainous- egions-wo ld-0 ENDRENY T.A., WOOD E.F. 2003. Wa e shed weigh ing o expo coe icien s o map c i ical phospho ous loading a eas. Jou nal o he Ame ican Wa e Resou ces Associa ion. Vol. 39(1) p. 165– 181. DOI 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003. b01569.x. FIGUŁA K. 1966. Ksz ał owanie się odpływów w zlewniach po oków Biała i Cza na Woda. Badania nad gospoda ką wodną zlewni gó skich zalesionych i niezalesionych [Fo ma ion o ou lows in he ca chmen s o he Biała and Cza na Woda s eams. Resea ch on wa e managemen in o es ed and non- o es ed moun ain ca chmen s]. Cz. 2. Roczniki Nauk Rolniczych. Se . D. T. 118 p. 51–90. GAGLIO M., ASCHONITIS V., PIERETTI L., SANTOS L., GISSI E., CASTALDELLI G., FANO E. A. 2019. Modelling pas , p esen and u u e Ecosys em Se ices supply in a p o ec ed loodplain unde land use and clima e changes. Ecological Modelling. DOI 10.1016/j. ecolmodel.2019.04.019. © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Ma ek T. Kopacz e al. 231 HAMEL P., CHAPLIN-KRAMER R., SIM S., MUELLER C. 2015. A new app oach o modeling he sedimen e en ion se ice (InVEST 3.0): Case s udy o he Cape Fea ca chmen , No h Ca olina, USA. Science o The To al En i onmen . Vol. 524–525 p. 166–177. DOI 10.1016/j.sci o en .2015.04.027. HAMEL P., GUSWA A. J. 2015. Unce ain y analysis o he InVEST 3.0 Nu ien Model: Case s udy o he Cape Fea Ca chmen , NC. Hyd ology and Ea h Sys em Sciences Discussion. Vol. 11 p. 11001–11036. DOI 10.5194/hessd-11-11001-2014. HAN B., REIDY A., LI A. 2021. Modeling nu ien elease wi h compiled da a in a ypical Midwes wa e shed. Ecological Indica o s. Vol. 121, 107213. DOI 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107213. HARMEL D., POTTER S., CASEBOLT P., RECKHOW K. 2006. Compila ion o measu ed nu ien load da a o ag icul u al land uses in he Uni ed S a es. Jou nal o he Ame ican Wa e Resou ces Associa ion. Vol. 42(5), 05084 p. 1163–1178. DOI 10.1111/ j.1752-1688.2006. b05292.x KALICKI T., PRZEPIÓRA P., KUSZTAL P., CHRABĄSZCZ M., FULARCZYK K., KŁUSAKIEWICZ E., FRĄCZEK M. 2020. His o ical and p esen -day human impac on lu ial sys ems in he Old-Polish Indus ial Dis ic (Poland). Geomo phology. Vol. 357. DOI 10.1016/j. geomo ph.2020.107062. KISTNER I., OLLESCH G., MEISSNER R., RODE M. 2013. Spa ial- empo al dynamics o wa e soluble phospho us in he opsoil o a low moun ain ange ca chmen . Ag icul u e, Ecosys ems and En i - onmen . Vol. 176 p. 24–38. DOI 10.1016/j.agee.2013.05.01. KOSMOWSKA A., ŻELAZNY M., MAŁEK S., SIWEK J. P., JELONKIEWICZ Ł. 2016. E ec o de o es a ion on s eam wa e chemis y in he Sk zyczne massi ( he Beskid Śląski Moun ains in sou he n Poland). Science o The To al En i onmen . Vol. 568 p. 1044– 1053. DOI 10.1016/j.sci o en .2016.06.123. KOSTUCH M. 2003. Odpływy podziemne niskie w po okach gó skich [G oundwa e and low uno s in moun ain s e ams]. Woda- Ś odowisko-Obsza y Wiejskie. T. 3. Z. 1(7) p. 193–203. KUREK S., PAWLIK-DOBROWOLSKI J. 1990. Ok eślenie zmian odpływu w z óżnicowanych wa unkach ś odowiska p zy odniczego ma- łych zlewni w do zeczu gó nego G ajca ka (Doniesienie nau- kowe) [De e mina ion o changes o alls in di e en condi ions o na u al en i onmen he small d ainages in d ainage a ea o uppe G ajca ek (Scien i ic epo )]. P oblemy Zagospoda owa- nia Ziem Gó skich. Z. 29 p. 135–141. LEHNER B., LIERMANN C.R., REVENG C., VÖRÖSMARTY C., FEKETE B., CROUZET P., ..., WISSER D. 2011. High- esolu ion mapping o he wo ld’s ese oi s and dams o sus ainable i e - low manage- men . F on ie s in Ecology and he En i onmen . Vol. 9 p. 494– 502. DOI.o g/10.1890/100125. LLENA M., VERICAT D., CAVALLI M., CREMA S., SMITH M.W. 2019. The e ec s o land use and opog aphic changes on sedimen connec i i y in moun ain ca chmen s. Science o he To al En i onmen . Vol. 660 p. 899–912. DOI 10.1016/j.sci o en .2018.12.479. MAAVARA T., CHEN Q., VAN METER K., BROWN L.E., ZHANG J., NI J., ZARFL C. 2020. Ri e dam impac s on biogeochemical cycling. Na u e Re iews Ea h and En i onmen . Vol. 1(2) p. 103–116. DOI 10.1038/s43017-019-0019-0. MUHAMMED H.H., MUSTAFA A.M., KOLERSKI T. 2021. Hyd ological esponses o la ge-scale changes in land co e o i e wa e shed: Re iew. Jou nal o Wa e and Land De elopmen . No. 50 p. 108– 121. DOI 10.24425/jwld.2021.138166. OZGA-ZIELIŃSKA M. 1990. Niżówki i wezb ania – ich de iniowanie i modelowanie [Low lows and aised wa e s – hei cha ac e - is ics and modeling]. P zegląd Geo izyczny. R. 35. Z. 1–2 p. 33–43. OZGA-ZIELIŃSKA M., BRZEZIŃSKI J. 1997. Hyd ologia s osowana [Applied hyd ology]. Wa szawa. PWN. ISBN 8301121947 pp. 324. POWERS J.S., MARÍN-SPIOTTA E. 2017. Ecosys em p ocesses and biogeochemical cycles in seconda y opical o es succession. Annual Re iew o Ecology, E olu ion, and Sys ema ics. Vol. 48 p. 497–519. R Co e Team 2018. The R P ojec o S a is ical Compu ing. [online]. Vienna, Aus ia. R Founda ion o S a is ical Compu ing. [Access 10.9.2021]. A ailable a : h ps://www.R-p ojec .o g/ SALLUSTIO L., DE TONI A., STROLLO A., DI FEBBRARO M., GISSI E., CASELLA L., GENELETTI D., MUNAFÒ M., VIZZARRI M., MARCHETTI M. 2017. Assessing habi a quali y in ela ion o he spa ial dis ibu ion o p o ec ed a eas in I aly. Jou nal o En i onmen al Managemen . DOI 10.1016/j.jen man.2017.06.031. SHOOK K. 2016. CRHM : p e- and pos - p ocessing o he Cold Regions Hyd ological Modelling (CRHM) pla o m [online]. [Access 10.9.2021]. A ailable a : h ps://gi hub.com/Cen eFo - Hyd ology/CRHM S an o d Uni e si y unda ed. Na u al Capi al P ojec . In es [online]. [Access 10.10.2021]. A ailable a : h ps://na u alcapi al p ojec . s an o d.edu/so wa e/in es SZALIŃSKA E., DOMINIK J. 2006. Wa e quali y changes in he Uppe Dunajec Wa e shed, Sou he n Poland. Polish Jou nal o En i - onmen al S udies. Vol. 15(2) p. 327–334. TALLIS H., RICKETTS T.H., DAILY G.C., POLASKY S. 2011. Na u al capi al: heo y and p ac ice o mapping ecosys em se ices. Ox o d Uni e si y P ess. ISBN 9780199588992 pp. 432. DOI 10.1093/ acp o :oso/9780199588992.001.0001. TWARDY S., KOPACZ M., JAGUŚ A. 2002. Cha ak e ys yka p zy odnicza zlewni G ajca ka ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem ś odowiska wodnego i uży kowania e enu [Na u al cha ac e is ics o he G ajca ka ca chmen wi h pa icula emphasis on he wa e en i onmen and land use]. K aków–Falen y. Wydaw. IMUZ. ISBN 83-88763-14-8 pp. 88. WICKHAM H. 2017. Tidy e se: Easily ins all and load he ‘Tidy e se’. R package e sion 1.2.1 [online]. [Access 10.10.2021]. A ailable a : h ps://CRAN.R-p ojec .o g/package= idy e se WINBOURNE J.B., FENG A., REYNOLD L., PIOTTO D., HASTINGS M.G., PORDER S. 2018. Ni ogen cycling du ing seconda y succession in A lan ic Fo es o Bahia, B azil. Scien i ic Repo s. Vol. 8(1) p. 1–9. YERDELEN C., ASIKOGLU Ö.L., ABDELKADER M., ERIS E. 2021. Es ima ion o s anda d du a ion maximum ain all by using eg ession models. Jou nal o Wa e and Land De elopmen . No. 50 p. 281–288. DOI 10.24425/jwld.2021.138184. ZHANG L., HICKEL K., DAWES W.R., CHIEW F.H.S., WESTERN A.W., BRIGGS P.R. 2021. 2.2. 5 NDR: Nu ien Deli e y Ra io. InVEST pp. 113. © 2021. The Au ho s. Published by Polish Academy o Sciences (PAN) and Ins i u e o Technology and Li e Sciences – Na ional Resea ch Ins i u e (ITP – PIB). This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) 232 Modelling o long e m low wa e le el in he moun ain i e ca chmen s a ea