Chapter 1 - The relevance of customer expectations and preferences: Adoption of electric vehicles and impacts on noise, energy consumption and air pollution. A review from Portugal

NVH Analysis Techniques for Design and Optimization of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Chapter 1 Electric and hybrid electric vehicles – the relevance of customer expectations and preferences Peter Cocron1 and Álvaro García del Castillo López2 1 Technische Universität Chemnitz, Chemnitz, Germany, peter.cocr[email protected]-chemnitz.de 2!Universidad Miguel Hernández, Elche, Spain, [email protected] Abstract. Electric vehicles (EV), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) are promising solutions to tackle challenges following the CO2 emissions of the transport sector. Due to the slow market growth questions arise how to foster the adoption of such technology. Therefore, it seems necessary to develop a clear understanding of what benefits EV/HEV/PHEV could provide to the public and potential customers. In this context, low noise emissions, as one of the key characteristics, could play a decisive role in reaching a higher market share. In the chapter on customer expectations, several aspects of the customer evaluation of EV/HEV are examined. First, noise as a key characteristic and methods to assess its role for customer acceptance are investigated. In the second contribution it is discussed how vehicles with an electric power train affect different kinds of emissions and how early adopters cope with such technology. In the third contribution attitudes towards EV and perceived barriers of potential customers are reported. Together the contributions provide an overview of which features of EV are relevant, not only for potential customers, but also for the general public. This could be used to further promote vehicles with an alternative power train. 1 EV/HEV noise from a customer’s perspective Looking at the impact of electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles on noise emissions in general, Jabben et al. [1] discussed that EV could have a positive impact on the noise level in cities as noise levels in urban environments could be reduced particularly at junctions and on roads with low average speeds. As high noise levels have been found to be related to health issues such as sleep disturbances [2] and cardiovascular risks [3], the low noise emission of EV/HEV could have a positive impact on the wellbeing of inner city residents. Nevertheless, particularly at junctions where different road users need to interact with each other, safety is of utter importance. This creates a dilemma: silent cars could contribute to lower urban noise levels on the one hand, but on the other hand, they could have detrimental effects on traffic safety by endangering vulnerable road users. The question therefore arises, how the public and potential customers evaluate the noise emission of EV/HEV. Some features of vehicles that may influence purchase intentions and satisfaction of consumers are the perceived noise and the vibrations produced while driving, given ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 6 that sound is associated to brand quality. In this sense, interest has increased in recent years to know what customers look at when they discuss sound quality [4] and how they evaluate such quality [5]. Research on the attitudes and acceptance of potential EV customers mainly regarded noise as an additional factor that contributed to the innovative and futuristic feel of such vehicles. Gärling [6] investigated acceptance of EV in Sweden and reported that, according to the drivers, the low noise of the EV was part of the driving pleasure. Similar findings from France were reported by Labeye et al. [7]. In studies on EV acceptance, participants also referred to low noise emission as a generally desirable characteristic of EV [8]. Reports from UK fleet drivers revealed considerable differences in the evaluation of the low noise. Although the drivers generally welcomed this feature, some mentioned concerns pertaining to the safety of pedestrians [9]. German field studies on the acceptance and road capability of EV also revealed that EV drivers appreciated the low noise of such vehicles [10, 11]. Applying qualitative and quantitative methods, Cocron and Krems [11] found that drivers expressed safety concerns for other road users prior to driving an EV for the first time. As the drivers gained experience with the EV safety, concerns decreased and the subjective comfort due to this feature increased. Such opposing trends can also be found if drivers test EV for only a limited time, e.g. during an inner city test drive [12]. Summing up the driver evaluation of the noise of EV/HEV one can conclude that customers seem to reflect on sound and noise emissions of EV/HEV. Furthermore, they seem to be well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of this feature. In annex 1A of this chapter, methods will be presented on how to assess the customer evaluation. This is complemented by a review examining the implications of EV on emissions in general. Annex 1B presents a review from Portugal on the adoption of electric vehicles and impacts on noise, energy consumption and air pollution. Annex 1C provides an overview on attitudes and perceived barriers in a study from the Czech Republic. 2 Conclusions The contributions in the chapters on customer expectations and preferences (annex 1A-1C) provide an overview on issues of utmost importance for potential customers. Customers, in particular those who didn’t have the chance to test electric vehicles, seem to be unsure if electric vehicles are affordable and suitable to meet individual mobility needs. As reported by Zámečník and Šucha (annex 1C) from the Czech Republic, high purchase price, insufficient infrastructure of charging stations and the limited range of such vehicles are perceived barriers which keep customers from even considering buying electric vehicles. Nevertheless, Zámečník and Šucha also report that potential customers perceive electric vehicles as environmentally friendly. This could be used as an important attribute in the promotion of such vehicles. The ecological impact of electric vehicles is also addressed in the contribution by Rocha, Melo, Rolim and Baptista (annex 1B). Focusing on the impact on noise, energy consumption and air pollution, the authors discuss current findings which ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 7 indicate high potential of electric vehicles in energy efficiency improvement and delocalization of local pollutants emissions. These benefits and an affinity for innovative technology particularly attract early adopters. Studies from the US [13], Portugal [14] and Germany [15] indicate that early adopters are typically highly educated and middle-aged men who live close to bigger cities. Characterised by affinity not only for innovative but also environmental issues, these customers could serve as disseminators of EV/HEV technology. The question now arises how to reach the more sceptical part of the public. Field studies on road capability and user acceptance from the UK [16], France [17] and Germany [18, 19] indicate that individual experience could play a vital role in this context. With regard to the limited range as one of the key characteristics of EV, Franke and Krems [20] argued that, with increasing experience, EV drivers adjust their range preferences resulting in a smaller range need after three months. This indicates a better fit between subjective and objective range needs. Low vehicle noise is another important feature of EV. As mentioned above the evaluation of this feature seems to undergo a change with increasing experience, even though this might be different, for instance, in Asian traffic environments [21]. One could argue that noise in general could play a much more important role in the promotion of vehicles with an alternative power train. This was the starting point for the work reported by García del Castillo and Cocron (annex 1A). Creating a structural equation model (SEM) based on existing user research on noise evaluation, the authors define relevant factors for a NVH evaluation and test these assumptions empirically to further refine the SEM model. 3 References [1] Jabben, J., Verheijen, E., & Potma, C. (2012). Noise reduction by electric vehicles in the Netherlands. In C. Burroughs & S. Conlon (Eds.), Proceedings of 41st Intern ational Congress and Exposition on Noise Control Engineering (InterNoise), New York City, NY, August 19-22 2012 (pp. 2505-2512). Red Hook, NY: Curran Associates. [2] Jakovljević, B., Lojević, G., Paunović, K., & Stojanov, V. (2006). Road traffic noise and sleep disturbances in an urban population: Cross–sectional study. Croatian Medical Journal, 47(1), 125-33. [3] Babisch, W. (2006). Transportation noise and cardiovascular risk: Updated review and synthesis of epidemiological studies indicate that the evidence has increased. Noise and Health, 8(30), 1-29. doi: 10.4103/1463-1741.32464 [4] Fry, J., Jennings, P., Williams, R., & Dunne, G. (2004, August). Understanding how customers make their decisions on product sound quality. In Proceedings of ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 8 the 33rd International Congress and Exposition on Noise Control Engineering, Prague, Czech Republic. [5] Allman-Ward, M., Williams, R., Dunne, G., & Jennings, P. (2004, August). The evaluation of vehicle sound quality using an NVH simulator. In The 33rd International Congress and Exposition on Noise Control Engineering, Prague, Czech Republic. [6] Gärling, A. (2001). Paving the way for the electric vehicle. Rapport 2011:1, Stockholm, Sweden: VINNOVA. [7] Labeye, E., Hugot, M., Regan, M., & Brusque, C. (2012). Electric Vehicles: An eco-friendly mode of transport which induce changes in driving behaviour. In D. De Waard, N., Merat, H., Jamson, Y., Barnard & O. Carsten (Eds.), Human factors of systems and technology (pp. 171-180). Maastricht, Netherlands: Shaker. [8] Jabeen, F., Olaru, D., Smith, B., Braunl, T., & Speidel, S. (2012). Acceptability of electric vehicles: Findings from a driver survey. Proceedings of the ATRF (Australasian Transport Research Forum), Perth, Australia, September 26-28 2012. Retrieved from http://www.atrf.info/papers/2012/2012_Jabeen_Olaru_Smi th_Braunl_Speidel.pdf [9] Carroll S. (2010). The smart move case studies. Retrieved from http://www.cenex.co.uk/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=1PElynEh5mA%3d&tabid=4 74 [10] Cocron, P., Bühler, F., Franke, T., Neumann, I., & Krems, J. F. (2011). The silence of electric vehicles – blessing or curse? Proceedings of the 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Retrieved from http://amonline.trb.org/12jq42/1 [11] Cocron, P., & Krems, J.F. (2013). Driver perceptions of the safety implications of quiet electric vehicles. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 58, 122-131. dx.doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.04.028 [12] Cocron, P., Bachl, V., Früh, L., Koch, I., & Krems, J.F. (2014). Hazard detection in noise-related incidents - the role of driving experience with battery electric vehicles. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 73, 380-391. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.09.016 [13] Carley, S., Krause, R. M., Lane, B. W., & Graham, J. D. (2013). Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: A survey of early impressions in large US cites. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 18, 39-45. [14] Rolim, C., Baptista, P., Farias, T., & Rodrigues, O. (2013, November). Electric vehicle adopters' motivation, utilization patterns and environmental impacts: A Lisbon case study. In Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition (EVS27), 2013 World (pp. 1-11). IEEE. [15] Bühler, F., Cocron, P., Neumann, I., Franke, T., & Krems, J. F. (2014). Is EV experience related to EV acceptance? Results from a German field study. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 25(A), 8590. doi:10.1016/j.trf.2014.05.002 ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 9 [16] Burgess, M., King, N., Harris, M., & Lewis, E. (2013). Electric vehicle drivers’ reported interactions with the public: Driving stereotype change?. Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, 17, 33-44. [17] Labeye, E., Adrian, J., Hugot, M., Regan, M. A., & Brusque, C. (2013). Daily use of an electric vehicle: Behavioural changes and potential for ITS support. Intelligent Transport Systems, IET, 7(2), 210-214. [18] Cocron, P., Bühler, F., Neumann, I., Franke, T., Krems, J.F., Schwalm, M., & Keinath, A. (2011). Methods of evaluating electric vehicles from a user's perspective - the MINI E field trial in Berlin. IET Intelligent Transport Systems, 5(2), 127-133. doi:10.1049/iet-its.2010.0126 [19] Franke, T., Bühler, F., Cocron, P., Neumann, I., & Krems, J.F. (2012). Enhancing sustainability of electric vehicles: A field study approach to understanding user acceptance and behavior. In Sullman, M., Dorn. L. (Eds.). Advances in Traffic Psychology (p. 295-306). Farnham, UK: Ashgate. [20] Franke, T., & Krems, J. F. (2013). What drives range preferences in electric vehicle users? Transport Policy, 30, 56-62. [21] Vilimek, R., Keinath, A. & Schwalm, M. (2012). The MINI E field study - Similarities and differences in international everyday EV driving. In N. A. Stanton (Ed.), Advances in human aspects of road and rail transport (pp. 363372). Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press. ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 10 Annex 1A Methods to assess customer expectations related to vehicle noise, vibration and harshness Álvaro García del Castillo López1 and Peter Cocron2 1!Universidad Miguel Hernández, Elche, Spain, [email protected] 2 Technische Universität Chemnitz, Chemnitz, Germany, peter.cocr[email protected]-chemnitz.de Abstract. Due to their reduced noise emissions especially at low speeds, EV and HEV not only raise traffic safety concerns but also questions related to noise vibrations and harshness (NVH). In the present contribution we examine the relevance of NVH issues related to the customer evaluation of EV/HEV as these factors could be crucial for acceptance and adoption of such technology. Based on earlier work we created a SEM model of relevant factors which arguably determine the customer evaluation of NVH issues. In a second step we collected questionnaire data (N =128) to empirically test our model. The obtained data will also be used to further refine our theoretical assumptions about relevant factors in NVH evaluation of potential customers. 1A.1 Creation of a questionnaire on EV/HEV noise In this study we set out to design a Structural Equation Model (SEM) linking different variables involved in the intention of use and purchase of Electric Vehicles (EV) from a customer-centered expectation related to noise and vibrations. SEMs have proven to be useful tools in behavioural sciences for identifying the theoretical background of certain phenomena, as is the case regarding attitudes [1]. From this perspective—with the aim of contributing to the creation of a solid theoretical framework that will substantiate our research and using the SEM methodology as a structure— we designed a number of items to evaluate these variables. In this sense, we intended to fulfil the following objectives: 1. Compilation of questionnaire on EV/HEV noise 2. Pre-test with a sample of German students 3. Compilation of final version of questionnaire based on feedback/data of pretest 4. Make questionnaire available online (appropriate server, privacy, data handling) 5. Start of data collection (dissemination of link within COST/EU level) 6. Descriptive analysis of data for COST Action ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 11 As discussed above, the main objective was to design a SEM and to collect information on the variables involved by means of a questionnaire. Following the proper literature review, we designed the model proposed in Figure 1. The variables included in the model are: - Attitudes toward car noise/vibration - Risk evaluation - ECO Attitude - Intention to use - Intention to purchase Fig. 1. Customer expectations hypothesized model Once the model was designed, we collected the questionnaires related to the variables that could be considered interesting for analysis and we selected the relevant items for our study. Furthermore, through several meetings with the staff of the Professorship of Cognitive & Engineering Psychology at Technische Universität of Chemnitz, we designed new items based on the existing literature. The selected items were grouped according to the variables in the model and loaded onto the LimeSurvey website hosted at the University to ensure data confidentiality and storage safety. We displayed the questionnaire online to facilitate the data collection. ! ATTITUDES! TOWARD!CAR! NOISE/VIB! RISK! EVALUATION! ECO! ATTITUDE! INTENTION! TO!USE! INTENTION! TO! PURCHASE! BELIEFS! EVALUATIONS! ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 12 1A.2 Pre-study on EV/HEV noise After completing the item loading and server setup, we performed several tests to verify the adequate functioning of the items, thanks to which several errors were corrected. Once we finished the questionnaire and evaluated its function, we sent a mass mailing to all the students enrolled in psychology studies both at the Technische Universität of Chemnitz (Germany) and at the Miguel Hernández University in Elche (Spain) to begin the data collection. Similarly, we used on-site lessons to discuss the research and to request collaboration. 1A.2.a Sample Initially, 177 datasets were obtained. However, after filtering and selecting the valid data, 128 remain at the time of writing out this report. The obtained sample is comprised of 23.4% female and 76.6% male subjects, the majority of which are Spanish (66.4%) and German (18.8%) nationals, although other nationalities are also present, such as British, Colombian, Greek or Thai (Table 1). The majority of the sample has less than 24 years old (65.5%) and are mainly students (83.6%). Table 1. Nationality Freq. Argentinian 1 British 12 Colombian 1 Estonian 1 German 24 Greek 1 Hungarian 1 Portuguese 1 Spanish 85 Thai 1 Total 128 Regarding the type of vehicle regularly used, more than half of the sample (54.7%) uses a combustion engine vehicle practically every day, besides public transport on a daily basis (14.8%). The majority of subjects state that they do not use electric or hybrid vehicles (EV/HEV) as a regular form of transport. ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 13 1A.2.b Results Attitudes toward car noise The most representative results from the section on “attitudes toward car noise” show that a majority of subjects (83.6%) agree with the main idea behind this survey, in which the issue of noise inside the vehicle while driving is considered to be an important aspect (Figure 2). Fig. 2. Item “I think the noise inside the vehicle is an important matter while driving” In line with these results, the majority of sample subjects (51.6%) prefer not to hear any engine noise while driving and feel uncomfortable when hearing any background mechanical noises such as gear-shift (57%). Concerning vibrations, the majority of subjects report feeling uncomfortable when they are produced during travel (60.9%). Furthermore, users seem to be comfortable in any way with some noise if it is produced while driving (65.7%). In terms of quality, the noise of the engine is associated with performance (64.8%). When asked directly about the comfort of electric vehicles that produce no engine noise during driving, most subjects agree with such claim (62.5%). However, they do express that they need some sort of engine noise—even if only on a slight level—for a more comfortable drive (59.4%), besides acoustic feedback to estimate the speed of the vehicle (67.9%). The aspect of noise ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 20 population are consistently disturbed over the years by the existence of noise emission. In Portugal, the percentage of annoyed persons has always been higher than the European average. Fig. 2 - Percentage of the population complaining about noise from neighbours or from the street (source: SILC), including degree of urbanization [16], [17] The regularity in these figures reveals not only a rising concern of the population, but is also related with the movement of the population into the cities, as previously mentioned, together with the increasing number of vehicles in circulation. In spite of noise mitigation measures to protect urban areas (low noise pavements, noise barriers, reduced speed zones, etc.) and the reduction of noise emission from vehicles, the percentage of annoyed population did not decrease. In fact, according to the latest report from the Portuguese Environmental Agency (APA) [18], the number of persons exposed to high noise levels from major transport infrastructures (above 55 dB(A) and not considering Lisbon) represents, approximately, 8% of the Portuguese population, of which 6% derive from road infrastructures. Referring, exclusively, to major urban areas and agglomerations, the same study indicated that 69% and 54% of the urban population, respectively in Lisbon and in EU, is exposed to noise levels over 55 dB(A). Considering all sources of environmental noise in presence, it was concluded that road traffic was responsible for 42% of the excessive noise levels in Lisbon and about 46% for European agglomerations. According to Haling and Cohen, cited in [15], for velocities exceeding 40 km/h, the noise emitted by EV and PHEV (when in fully electric mode) is marginal when compared to all vehicle noise sources (like noise from tires and from aerodynamic shape of the vehicles). In fact, it is only at low speeds and low traffic densities that it is possible to detect higher perception of this type of noise, mostly in the night-time period, as during the day and regular traffic conditions EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) do not differ. As a result, electric mobility appears as a new possibility in noise mitigation in city context. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cities Total population % annoyed population Greece Spain France Italy Portugal EU (28 countries) ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 21 With respect to air pollution, since 2005, in most European countries the concentration of particulate matter (PM) has decreased [19]. In the EU, the average concentration decreased from 28.1 µg/m3 in 2005 to 24.9 µg/m3 in 2012. In general terms, EU Member States deployed measures to decrease the exposure to PM by reducing the proportion of diesel vehicles in urban areas, lowering the average age of the passenger vehicle fleet, diversifying energy sources (especially for heating) and setting up policies at country level to reduce exposure. In Portugal, this decline was even more significant, as it is possible to observe in Fig. 3, in 2005 the concentration reached 32.5 µg/m3 and about 24 µg/m3 in 2012. In the case of Portugal, the reason for these decreases was not exactly the same as the ones observed in Europe. In Portugal, the most relevant direct sources of PM emissions are the combustion of biomass by the household sector and the emissions from road vehicles, by their impact on urban areas [20]. Regarding PM, the annual threshold has been fulfilled but, regarding the daily limit value, the exceedances persisted and were detected primarily at traffic stations (44% in 2012), followed by urban and suburban background (33% in 2012) and, finally, the stations of industrial influence (22% in 2012). Despite its importance, the contribution of transport to the global PM emissions has been significantly reduced not only by the efficiency of new vehicles, with lower energy consumption (including hybrid vehicles), but also due to the adoption of the EURO 6 standards, which involved the introduction of end of line technologies that can reduce direct emissions from vehicles exhausts (eg, particulate filter and EGR systems - recirculation of exhaust gases). Fig. 3 - Percentage of urban population exposed to air pollution, by particulate matter, by country in 2005 and 2012 (micrograms per cubic meter) [19] Concerning air pollution and climate change, the use of fossil fuels conveys large environmental costs as it is responsible for contributing massively to GHG emissions. In 2013, the transportation sector was responsible for 32% and 40% of the final energy consumption, respectively in Europe and in Portugal [21]. In Portugal, this indicator has decreased by 12.6% between 2010 and 2013. In Europe, road ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 22 transportation is the leading contributor to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, responsible in 2013 for 82% of the sector’s energy consumption and about 94% of the sector’s CO2 emissions. Portugal presents a similar trend, with the road transportation sector being responsible for 81% and 96% of the sectors' energy consumption and CO2 in Portugal's road transportation emissions [22]. 1B.3 Electric vehicle adoption in Portugal Electric vehicles seem to have many advantages to make them one important vehicle technology of the future [23], [10]. However, there are also a number of drawbacks, which users will have to take into consideration and, therefore, will require the need to make complex and balanced assessments when deciding to purchase an EV and PHEV. Across early adopter’s countries and consumers with stated intent to purchase electric vehicles there are some common social demographic characteristics. According to recent studies by Carley [23] and Hjorthol ( [24], users are mainly between ages 30 and 50, highly educated, with high incomes, environmentally sensitive, belonging to households with more than one car, and living in or in the vicinities of large cities. In Portugal, the results from an on on-line survey, performed to assess willingness to adopt PHEV, are in line with those social demographic characteristics and indicated higher EV and PHEV purchase probabilities for those who did not own a vehicle. Respondents were more aware of the existence of pure electric vehicles with little knowledge of PHEV, however after a brief explanation of the technology preference to acquire PHEV surpassed the EV, due its extended autonomy and fuel flexibility [25]. Another study performed in Lisbon with private EV early adopters revealed that drivers had an average age of 49.2 years and a driving experience of up to 30 years. The fleet users had, on average, the age of 36.7 years and a driving experience of 19.6 years [26]. With the main objective of assessing users’ satisfaction and adaptation to fully electric vehicles, early adopters, both private users and business users from the city of Lisbon participated in this study. Portuguese EV early adopters, indicated environmental and economic (energy and running costs) factors as main motives for purchasing an EV. These motives follow the trend already found in other studies in which lifestyle, environmental and economic factors (energy and running costs) stand out as reasons to adopt an EV [23], [27]. In the same study and regarding their charging routines, 92% charged the vehicle at home mainly during the night and only 17% charged during day time. In terms of street charging, only 38% of the users interviewed stated to use street charging points. Private drivers use the vehicle as a replacement for their conventional everyday vehicle, even though they still own at least one ICEV. They use the EV for commuting and running errands, mainly in urban contexts. Besides referring to environmental factors as the main motive influencing the companies’ decision to acquire an EV, fleet users from Portuguese companies also mentioned the positive image as a motive to adopt an EV. Portuguese fleet users stated they didn’t charge the vehicle after using it (42%). If they charged the vehicle, they did it in the vicinity of their workplace, but this was usually done by ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 23 drivers who used the vehicles several days a week, and 25% also charged on the street. Concerning the vehicle's disadvantages, both private and fleet users considered the vehicle’s autonomy as its main drawback (77% and 83%, respectively). The charging infrastructure was also considered a negative aspect by both private (15%) and fleet (25%) users. Fleet users mentioned the vehicle’s acquisition cost as a disadvantage (33%), but only 15% of private users mentioned this aspect. Some of the fleet users (17%) mentioned the absence of vehicle noise as a disadvantage of the EV, while none of the private users mentioned this aspect [23], [10], [28], [29], [24]. Autonomy stood out as the main concern for both private and fleet drivers when driving the EV, at 85% and 50%, respectively. Concerns for pedestrians, safety and speed were also mentioned but with less emphasis. The assessment of the energy and environmental impact of the technology was undertaken using a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, considering a Well-toWheel (WTW) analysis. This approach includes: the Tank-to-Wheel stage (TTW), referring to fuel consumption and emissions resulting from moving the vehicle during the driving cycle and; the Well-to-Tank (WTT) stage which accounts for the fuel production [30]. For this, private drivers filled a daily report diary collecting data such as, day of the month, number of daily trips, km travelled and energy recharged (kWh) per day. Mobility patterns revealed that users made an average of 3.5 trips and travelled an average of 40 km per day [26]. These findings are consistent with those found in the study developed in California with NEV adopters [27]. The performed LCA analysis indicated that EV represent considerable reductions both in energy consumption and in CO2 emissions (35–43% and 58–63% respectively), when compared to conventional vehicle alternatives run by gasoline or diesel. The results follow the trend found in other research findings that also indicate CO2 emission reductions in urban contexts [14]. 1B.4 Impacts of adopting electric mobility in Portugal When assessing the impacts of electric mobility, it is important to consider the energy shifts associated to this alternative. A study performed for the Portuguese fleet, presenting a full life cycle vehicle technologies and energy pathways analysis, concluded that vehicles powered with hydrogen and electricity present considerable lower Well-to-Wheel (WTW) results in both energy consumption and CO2 emissions. However, when considering only the Well-to-Tank (WTT), both alternative technologies show higher values than those of gasoline and diesel [30]. Another study evaluating future energy consumption and emission scenarios for the Portuguese road transportation sector reveals that the introduction of alternative vehicle technologies can lead, in the long-term (2050), to energy consumption reductions between 2% and 66% and between 7% and 73% for CO2 emissions. However, in the short-term, it is essential to focus not only on the challenges and opportunities of each technology but also on the development of taxations and policies to promote public transportation use [31]. Penetration scenarios of PHEV and EV reveal that by 2020 the introduction of these technologies will still be scarce. By 2030, a limited impact on CO2 emissions is expected to be observed [32]. Although EV present lower lifecycle CO2 emissions, ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 24 this difference will depend on the carbon intensity of marginal electricity production used to charge the vehicles [33]. As a result, it is necessary to ensure that the demand for electricity that will come from penetration of EV in fleets will be met by electricity of renewable sources [32]. When looking in more detail into the main obstacles for the widespread dissemination of EV, the cost attribute leads the list, particularly in what concerns the purchase and battery cost [34]. In the niche market of urban logistics EV introduction have started to appear and are described in the most recent literature on the topic [35], [36], [37] A comparison of the conventional vehicles (ICEV) with electric vehicles for urban goods delivery in Lisbon was carried out by Melo, Baptista & Costa [34]. The study focused on the particular potential of replacing conventional vans with small-size electric vehicles (SEV) on city logistics operations. In their calculations the authors included the private stakeholders' interests, which are related to operation costs levels (running and driving costs), service levels, and efficiency. Simultaneously, its balance with public interests, related with sustainability, quality of life, mobility, and environmental issues were also addressed. The study compared four scenarios of 5%, 10%, 30%, and 70% of SEV replacing diesel vans used in transport and unloading operations. The four scenarios were tested on different geographical scales: street and city levels. Authors estimated how the use of SEV in city logistics affected traffic, energy consumption, and emissions. The respective operating and external costs were quantified and the acquisition and battery issues are discussed. Results from the study revealed that the replacement rate SEV/van is determinant to make a decision on whether or not to use SEV replacing vans. This is to say that if the electric vehicle replacing the conventional one is able to assure the same delivery capacity, SEV are economically competitive. If not, it is economically better to keep the conventional fleet. Moreover, when analysing the effects of such replacement in terms of local impact, SEV have a better performance at the street level rather than at the city level, due to its physical dimension. SEV can be used within normal road traffic merely as a niche of market (replacing less than 5% of conventional fleet vehicles). Under such context, the study reveals that SEV benefits exist, but they are not significant enough to drive suppliers for their adoption. The same conclusion is pointed out by Ahani [38] who estimates through modelling when suppliers should sell their conventional vehicles to replace their fleet with EV. Results from this study also reveal the market is not ready yet for a widespread penetration of electric vehicles. An identical inference is obtained by [39] who assessed how these replacements could occur in passenger transport. The authors concluded that the fleet operator from a car sharing system would take 8 years to economically achieve its break-even point. Such time spam is obviously neither acceptable nor desirable from a decision maker’s point of view. Public incentives, particularly through the replacement of public administration own fleets, can help to deploy this technology and overcome the initial opposition from suppliers and private users. ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 25 1B.5 Conclusions The transportation sector has a direct causal relation with energy and environmental impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to explore the potential of alternative vehicle technologies to substantially reduce some of the negative burdens of the transportation sector. In spite of the higher purchase cost associated with alternative technologies which hinders its fast adoption, electric mobility may greatly contribute to energy efficiency improvements and delocalization of local pollutants emissions. Electric mobility also raises important challenges in the field of noise, since, at low velocity, it is a silent technology, and, as so, it may raise safety issues that have to be tackled to achieve a widespread adoption of this technology. In terms of alternative vehicles adoption, the studies performed in Portugal reveal that even though people are aware of the existence of electric vehicles, there may not be a complete knowledge on the several types of technologies available. So, there is a need for more awareness campaigns, incentivizing not only the adoption of such technologies, but also promoting the different types of alternative vehicles coming onto the market and explaining how they are suited for one's mobility demands. It is also important to acknowledge the driver mobility patterns when adopting these technologies, since PHEV might be a better solution over EV if the driver needs to drive long-distances daily and in highway context. Regarding early adopters, their socio-demographic characteristics are similar to the ones found in other studies. Participants were relatively young, highly educated, environmentally aware and living mainly in urban contexts. Drivers adapted easily to the vehicle, stating that EV main advantages over conventional technology include its lower energy and running costs, comfort and environmental factors. However, drivers also mentioned other concerns related not only to the vehicle’s range, but also to safety issues mainly connected with pedestrians. Such concerns are a consequence of the absence of noise emitted by the vehicle, since pedestrians might not be aware of the vehicle approaching. Considering that alternative technologies may contribute considerably to the decrease of noise levels at low speeds, the issue of safety due to lack of noise emission must be addressed. The fact is that drivers and, consequently, pedestrians will need to adopt new safety procedures and behaviours, in the near future, or an advisory technology should be developed and included in new versions of the existing and future models to overcome this issue. As such, adoption campaigns should be also supported with educational programs designed taking into consideration safety procedures not only for the drivers but also for pedestrians. Even though early adopters consider these types of vehicles as the car of the future, and that the market is rising in Portugal, they also emphasize the need for more purchase incentives. These can be related not only to financial issues but also to circulation measures, promoting the circulation of EV in dedicated lanes and parking infrastructures or in conventional vehicles restricted areas. ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 26 Acknowledgments Thanks are due to Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia for the Post-Doctoral grant (SFRH/BPD/79684/2011) and PhD financial support (SFRH/BD/80500/2011) POS_Conhecimento. 1B.6 References [1] Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division United Nations, "World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352)," New York, ISBN 978-92-1-151517-6, 2014. [2] Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente APA et al., "Relatórios do Estado do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do Território em Portugal | 20 Anos," Amadora, ISBN: 978-972-8577-38-4, 2008. [3] Statistics Portugal INE. (2015) Road passenger motor vehicles (No.) by Type of vehicle and Age size class of vehicle. Annual - Statistics Portugal, Stock road vehicles statistic, last update 22-Oct-2015. [4] Eurostat. (2015a) Passenger cars, by age [road_eqs_carage]. Transport Statistics, last update 28.10.15. [5] International Agency for Research Cancer IARC and World Health Organization WHO. (2012) IARC: DIESEL ENGINE EXHAUST CARCINOGENIC. [Online]. http://www.iarc.fr/en/media-centre/pr/2012/pdfs/pr213_E.pdf [6] David Beeton, Ben Holland, Electric Vehicle Innitiative EVI, and IA-HEV, "EV City Casebook: 50 big ideas. Shaping the future of electric mobility," 2014. [7] K., & Walker, G. Bickerstaff, "Public understandings of air pollution: the ‘localisation’of environmental risk.," Global Environmental Change, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 133-145, 2001. [8] Greater London Authority, "Turning London electric - London's Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy," London, UK, Technical Report 2009. [9] PlaNYC, "Exploring electric vehicle adoption in New York City," New York, USA, Technical Report 2010. [10] IBM, "The shift to elctric vehicles. Putting consumers in the driver's seat," Executive Report 2011. [11] Ministério da Economia e da Inovação MEI, Mobilidade elétrica. Portugal - Pioneiro na definição de um modelo nacional, 2009. [12] T. Lieven, S. Mühmlmeier, S. Henkel, and J. F. Waller, "Who will buy electric cars? An empirical study in Germany," Transportation Research Part D, vol. 16, vol. 16, pp. 236-243, 2011. [13] European Automobile Manufacturers' Association ACEA. (2015) ACEA, European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. "www.acea.be". [Online]. http://www.acea.be/uploads/press_releases_files/AFV_registrations_Q2_2015_F INAL.pdf ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 27 [14] W.J. Smith, "Can EV (electric vehicles) address Ireland’s CO2 emissions from transport?," Energy, pp. 4514-4521, 2010. [15] Patrick Jochem, Claus Doll, and Wolf Fichtner, "External costs of electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 42, pp. 60-76, 2016. [Online]. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920915001467 [16] Eurostat. (2015b) Noise from neighbours or from the street. Population and social conditions, last update 22/05/2015. [17] Eurostat. (2015c) Noise from neighbours or from the street by degree of urbanisation. Population and social conditions, last update 22/05/2015. [18] APA et al., "Relatório do Estado do Ambiente 2012/2012 State of the Environment Report," Amadora, ISBN: 978-972-8577-61-2 , 2012. [19] Eurostat. (2015d) Quality of life: facts and views. [20] Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente APA, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa FCT/UNL, and Departamento de Ambiente e Ordenamento da Universidade de Aveiro DAO-UA, "Estratégia Nacional para o Ar 2020 – Cenários e Projeções para 2020 (National strategies for Air - hipothesys and projections," Amadora, 2015. [21] Eurostat, "Energy, transport and environmental indicators," Luxembourg, 2014. [22] Eurostat, "Europe in figures, Eurostat Yearbook," Luxembourg, 2012. [23] C. Thiel, A. Alemanno, G. Scarcella, A. Zubaryeva, and G. Pasaoglu, "Attitude of european car drivers towards electric vehicles: a survey," Report EUR 25597EN 2012. [24] S. Carley, R. M. Krause, B. W. Lane, and J. D. Gragam, "Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle: asurvey of early impressions in large US cities," Transportation Research Part D, vol. 18, pp. 39-45, 2013. [25] P. Baptista, C. Rolim, and C. Silva, "Plug-In Vehicle Acceptance and Probable Utilization Behaviour," Journal of Transportation Technologies, vol. 2, pp. 6774, 2012. [26] Catarina C. Rolim, Patrícia C. Baptista, and Tiago L. Farias, "Electric vehicle adopters' motivation, utilization patterns and environmental impacts: A Lisbon case study," European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 229-24, 2014. [27] Green Car Institute, "Study of NEV user behavior in California," San Louis Obispo, CA, USA, 2003. [28] S. Skippon and M. Garwood, "Responses to battery electric vehicles: UK consumer attitudes and attributions of symbolic meaning following direct experience to reduce psychological distance.," Transportation Research Part D, vol. 16, pp. 525-531., 2011. [29] R. Hjorthol, "Attitudes, ownership an use of electric vehicles - a review of literature," Report 1261/2013 2013. ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 28 [30] P. Baptista, T. Tomás, and C. Silva, "Plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles market penetration scenarios," International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, vol. 35, pp. 10024-10030, 2010. [31] P. Baptista, C. Silva, T. Farias, and J. Heywood, "Energy and environmental impacts of alternative pathways for the Portuguese road transportation sector," Journal of Energy Policy, vol. 51, pp. 802-815, 2012. [32] R. T. Hawkins, B. Singh, G. Majeau-Bettez, and H. A. Stromman, "Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles," Journal of industry Ecology, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 53-64, 2012. [33] P. Crist, "Electric vehicles revisited: costs, subsidies and prospects," Paris, France, Discussion paper No 2012-13. pp. 53-64 2012. [34] S. Melo, P. Baptista, and Á. Costa, "Comparing the Use of Small Sized Electric Vehicles with Diesel Vans on City Logistics," Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, vol. 111, pp. 350-359, 2014. [35] C. Macharis, S. Melo, J. Woxenius, and T. Van Lier, "Sustainable Logistics," in Sustainable Logistics (Transport and Sustainability, Volume 6), Cathy Macharis et al., Eds.: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2014. [36] FREVUE. (2013) FREVUE - Freight Electric Vehicles in Urban Europe. [Online]. http://frevue.eu/ [37] TU Delft, HAW Hamburg, Lindholmen Science Park, ZERO, and FDT, "Comparative Analysis of European Examples of Schemes for Freight Electric Vehicles," E-Mobility NSR - North Sea Region Electric Mobility Network, Aalborg, Denmark, Compilation report 2013. [Online]. http://e-mobilitynsr.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/downloads/info-pool/E-Mobility__Final_report_7.3.pdf [38] Ahani, Arantes, S. Melo, and T. Farias, "A portfolio approach for optimal fleet replacement towards sustainable urban freight transportation," in Workshop on City Logistics and Sustainable Urban Freight Transport, Vilamoura, Portugal. 16-17 April, 2015. [39] P. Baptista, S. Melo, and C. Rolim, "Car Sharing Systems as a Sustainable Transport Policy: A Case Study from Lisbon, Portugal," in Sustainable Urban Transport (Transport and Sustainability, Volume 7), Maria Attard and Yoram Shiftan, Eds.: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2015, pp. 205 - 227. ______________________________________________________________________________________" NVH"Analysis"Techniques"for"Design"and"Optimization"of"Hybrid"and"Electric"Vehicles! Nuria!Campillo-Davo!and!Ahmed!Rassili,!ISBN!978-3-8440-4356-3,!Shaker!Verlag!Publications!(2016)! 29 Annex 1C Users’ decision to buy HEV and EV – results from the Czech Republic Petr Zámečník1 and Matúš Šucha 2 1Transport Research Centre, Czech Republic, [email protected] 2 Palacky University in Olomouc, Czech Republic, [email protected] Abstract. The present study deals with the attitudes of people in the Czech Republic towards electric vehicles. Research was carried out in the form of an ad hoc questionnaire, which was filled out by 245 persons aged 17-81 years from all over the Czech Republic. The results show that for most respondents the acquisition of electric vehicles is not conceivable. The most common reason is the cost. Other reasons are the small number of charging stations, a small boot, and limited range. The results also show no statistically significant differences between men and women in their respective attitudes towards electric vehicles in general. The exception is the attitude to the fact that electric vehicles are environmentally friendly and the issue of purchase price. Women are less likely than men to perceive the cost of electric vehicles as excessive. At the same time, women (unlike men) consider electric vehicles much more environmentally friendly. 1C.1 Introduction Recently, several surveys have been carried out in the EU to collect feedback on electric vehicles from potential consumers, test drivers’ familiarity with electric vehicles, and investigate their interest in purchasing an electric vehicle, as well as inquiring about their priorities for improving the features of current electric vehicles [1, 5]. In the Czech Republic a survey on attitudes towards electric vehicles for small, medium, and large enterprises was included in the “Elektromobil Prague” project. The results indicate that up to 70% of all the respondents (Prague companies of different sizes) were considering purchasing an electric vehicle within the next five years (by 2016) and up to 30% of them stated that they would do it. More than half of the companies included in the survey had their own fleet of over 10 vehicles and a quarter more than 500 vehicles [6]. 1C.2 Method Rather than companies, our research focuses on individual residents of the Czech Republic. The questionnaire was distributed via a link on social networks and the presentation of links to websites dealing with transport-related issues. In order to ensure the recruitment of subjects older than 50 years, the questionnaire was