Modelling the long-term effect of climate change on a zero energy and carbon dioxide building through energy efficiency and renewables.

1 Modelling he long- e m e ec o clima e change on a ze o ene gy and ca bon dioxide building h ough ene gy e iciency and enewables. Ja ie M. Rey He nández a, Cha les Yousi b, Damien Ga b, Eloy Velasco Gómez a, Julio San José a and F ancisco Ja ie Rey Ma ínez a. a Depa men o Ene gy and Fluid Mechanics, Enginee ing School (EII), Uni e si y o Valladolid, Spain b Ins i u e o Sus ainable Ene gy, Uni e si y o Mal a, Mal a ARTICLE INFO Keywo ds: ZEB Simula ion, Clima e change, Fu u e clima e, Renewable ene gy. ABSTRACT: O e he las ew yea s, s udies ha e p edic ed an inc ease in he o e all ai empe a u e due o clima e change. Today’s socie y is al eady sensing his change, which could ha e a nega i e impac on he en i onmen and e o s a e being made o seek all possible measu es o cu b i . One o he consequences o his empe a u e ise would be i s e ec on indoo com o wi hin buildings, which may cause highe ene gy consump ion and ope a ional cos s, while educing he use ul li e ime o ai - condi ioning equipmen . In his pape , an exis ing ze o ene gy building (ZEB) is being s udied o unde s and he possible e ec s o clima e change on i s ze o ene gy s a us. The building is also a ze o ca bon building because all o i s gene a ed ene gies come om enewable sou ces (biomass, geo he mal and sola pho o ol aic sys ems). The building LUCIA has he highes inno a i e echnologies in ene gy sys ems, design and cons uc ion elemen s and is cu en ly conside ed as one o he op h ee buildings wi h he highes LEED ce i ica ion in he wo ld. Acco ding o cu en Eu opean egula ions, buildings will end o become sel -su icien in e ms o ene gy a e 2020, and he e o e his s udy will help us o unde s and he changes in ene gy consump ion wi hin a long- e m ime ame, o such ze o- ene gy buildings. Wi h he aid o he DesignBuilde e sion 5 so wa e and i s Ene gyPlus building ene gy engine, a building model is simula ed and ene gy consump ion is analyzed o he yea s 2020, 2050 and 2080 ime ame. The clima ic condi ions pe ain o he ci y o Valladolid, Spain, which has a con inen al clima e, while he expec ed changes in clima ic condi ions ha e been p oduced h ough he me hodology de eloped by he Uni e si y o Sou hamp on, called CCwo ldwea he gen. Resul s ha e shown ha he cooling demand would signi ican ly inc ease o he yea s 2050 and 2080, while space hea ing would d op. This will inc ease he o e all demand o bu ning mo e bio uels o co e he added demand in abso p ion cooling sys ems. Mo eo e , he p e iously excess gene a ed elec ici y o he building by pho o ol aics would hen be o ally consumed wi hin he building due o inc eased demand. This implies ha he ins alled sys ems will ope a e o longe hou s, which will inc ease main enance and eplacemen cos s. As a esul o his s udy, i becomes possible o quan i y he expec ed changes in ene gy consump ion and p epa e p e en i e ac ions o an icipa e his change, while imp o ing he managemen and con ol o bo h he ene gy sys ems and he building. 2 1. In oduc ion The scien i ic e idence o clima e change is qui e ce ain, all based on he issues aised by he In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC) and as sugges ed by he Ame ican En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency (EPA), which bo h e e o he e idence o clima e change [1]. Clima e change is de ined as a s able and du able change in he dis ibu ion o wea he pa e ns o e pe iods o ime. I could be a change in a e age wea he condi ions o he dis ibu ion o e en s a ound ha a e age. Clima e change may be limi ed o a speci ic egion, o can co e he en i e ea h's su ace [1,2]. In o de o mi iga e his change and i s impac s, emissions o g eenhouse gases should ha e peaked in 2015 and p og essi ely dec eased he ea e up o 50% by 2050 [3]. Howe e , he p og essi e e olu ion o a mosphe ic CO2, has been obse ed o ac ually inc ease and has ecen ly eached an unp eceden ed high o 400 pa s pe million (ppm). This de elopmen has p omp ed scien is s o make p ocesses o p edic u u e clima e in di e en ci ies, o he pu pose o designing buildings and op imising hei he mal com o in he coming yea s, wi hou loading he ecosys em wi h u he en i onmen al deg ada ion [4,5]. Consequen ly g ea e e iciency o HVAC equipmen , and be e designs o he building en elope a e cons an ly being de eloped o achie e a ious pa ame e s o com o and imp o e he o e all sa is ac ion le els o use s, while consuming less ene gy [6,7]. I is o be no ed ha buildings accoun o a signi ican amoun o ene gy consump ion which eaches 40% in he EU [8,9]. This pape in es iga es he e ec o wea he due o clima e change on he ene gy pe o mance o a ze o ene gy building (ZEB), si ua ed in he ci y o Valladolid, Spain. Simula ion using DesignBuilde e sion 5 so wa e and unning on he Ene gyPlus Building Model engine has been ca ied ou o di e en wea he clima es o 2020, 2050 and 2080. The inal ou come would gi e answe s o equen ly asked ques ions on whe he oday´s building echniques a e su icien ly esilien o keep he indoo clima e o buildings com o able and wha added measu es need o be made o main ain com o [10]. In his way, one can an icipa e any changes and coun e balance hei e ec s h ough ene gy e iciency and be e design, hus sa ing ene gy [11]. The building model used o his case s udy is a eal building ha was designed o be nea ze o ene gy building and also ze o CO2 h ough he use o enewable ene gies. The building o ms pa o he Campus o he Uni e si y o Valladolid and se es as a eal li e labo a o y o he applica ion o inno a i e ene gy and enewable ene gy sys ems. Moni o ing o ac ual consump ion is on-going. The collec ed da a was used o calib a e he simula ion model using a me eo ological wea he ile o Valladolid o 2016. The calib a ion adjus men o his model is made by wo king wi h ypical days and no ex eme days. The ene gy lows as epo ed in he model’s esul s and he eal alues we e compa ed. The end o esul s showed a disc epancy o be ween 0 and 3% [12]. Following ha , mo e simula ion we e made o u u e wea he clima es o 2020, 2050 and 2080, using he enowned DesingBuilde e sion 5 wi h Ene gyPlus e sion 8.5.0.001 building ene gy simula ion engine [13]. In his way, one can an icipa e any changes in ene gy p o iles and coun e balance hei e ec s h ough ene gy e iciency and be e design, hus sa ing ene gy [14]. The quan i a i e a ia ion o he da a pa ame e s wi hin a wea he ile due o clima e change will ha e a di ec impac on he ene gy consump ion o a ZEB. Despi e wo king on a Ze o Ene gy building, one would s ill expec a eal change in ene gy demand [15]. I is p edic ed ha he ene gy consump ion will inc ease o e ime because empe a u es end o inc ease due o clima e change, p ojec ing a p olonged use o ai condi ioning o cooling and educing he demand o hea ing [16]. The ocus on space condi ioning s ems om he ac ha mo e han 50% o he building’s ene gy consump ion is due o space condi ioning [17]. 2. Me hodology 3 A he beginning, he Me eono m so wa e wea he da abase was checked o he s udy o u u e clima e. Me eono m is a dis inc da abase ha was de eloped o e he yea s by a p i a e company, which is di e en om he one de eloped by he Uni e si y o Sou hamp on, UK, which belongs o public en i ies. A i s glance, Me eono m is designed wi h mo e comple e clima e da a han o he da abases. Al hough, he base his o ic da a is ob ained om ac ual me eo ological s a ions, i uses a spa ial in e pola ion me hod o gene a e he da abase, in case he e a e no da a o ce ain si es. The e o e, such da abase could be use ul o si es ha do no ha e access o eal his o ic wea he da a [18]. In ou case, he e was ull access o wea he da a o Valladolid using he da abase amed wi hin he CTE 2013 Spanish s anda d o buildings [19]. The eason o using his ile is he need o simula e buildings wi h ypical me eo ological local wea he iles ha o e s abili y wi hou signi ican a ia ions be ween di e en yea s, hus c ea ing a ep esen a i e clima ic balance o he model o e he wea he clima e o he pas en yea s. The use o a ypical me eo ological yea wea he ile will he e o e allow us o ocus on com o measu es and he possibili y o doing a much mo e de ailed s udy, excluding a ypical alues in wea he condi ions [20]. Due o he minimal a ia ion caused be ween he pa ame e s o he 2016 me eo ological local yea wea he used in he calib a ion and he ypical me eo ological local yea wea he used in he simula ion, he exis ing disc epancies ha e been accep ed [12]. The Uni e si y o Sou hamp on, UK has de eloped a simula o o clima e change o me eo ological iles (CCwo ldwea he gen) o he yea s 2020, 2050 and 2080, by which a ia ion o me eo ological pa ame e s a e modelled o ob ain clima e o ecas s. Such u u e wea he iles can hen be implemen ed in simula ion p og ammes, o calcula e he ene gy pe o mance o di e en buildings, and op imise he design o achie e be e ene gy con ol h oughou he yea s [21,22]. Fo he pu pose o his pape , we begin by desc ibing he ile gene a o (CCWo ldWea he Gen), which gi es us he oppo uni y o c ea e new u u e wea he iles based on a chi ed da a o i ually all exis ing loca ions. The i s s ep is o con e he wea he ile o Valladolid om Ene gy Plus Wea he (EPW) o ma o an MS Excel da a ile. This can be made by using he “Da a File and S a is ics U ili y” eely a ailable om Ene gyPlus websi e [7]. The da a ile can hen be used wi h a clima e change model o he Uni e si y o Sou hamp on, which is wo king on a me hodology called 'mo phing' o p ocessing changes o me eo ological da a, as de eloped by Belche , Hacke and Powell [23]. The ool (CCWo ldWea he Gen) allows us o gene a e ime se ies clima e change iles e y as . Mo eo e i is public and eely a ailable [16, 17]. Once his algo i hm was implemen ed in he clima e da a ile, h ee new wea he da a iles we e gene a ed besides he o iginal da a ile, namely he ypical me eo ological ile and wea he iles o he yea s 2020, 2050 and 2080. Following he abo e s eps, a en ion is u ned o he ene gy use simula ion so wa e, which is a compu e p og am ha pe o ms a ime se ies calcula ion o he ene gy beha iou o a i ual building in a ansien egime, known as dynamic simula ion (whe e he di e en pa ame e s a y o e ime). Wi h his ype o simula ion, many pa ame e s a e aken in o conside a ion including he hea capaci y o he building en elope, usually known as he ine ia o he building, hea low, sola gains, en ila ion and o he pa ame e s. The combined analysis o all hese ac o s is un by he so wa e se e al imes e e y hou . Thus, i is possible o s udy in de ail he e olu ion o any speci ic pa ame e h oughou he yea , such as he ela i e humidi y o he empe a u e o he hea ing and cooling load o a selec ed zone. The wo k p ocess in ol es building he model in 3D and inpu ing all he physical pa ame e s pe aining o he building en elope, mode o ope a ion, hea ing and cooling sys ems, en ila ion, wa e hea ing, and ligh ing, besides o he s. A clima e ile ha de ines he wea he o he locali y o in e es is also added. The calcula ion engine uses all his da a o make an annual simula ion o he he mal and ene gy pe o mance beha iou o he building. Simple p og ammes, such as ene gy ce i ica ion p og ams ha a e commonly used in Spain, gi e gene al annual da a on ene gy consump ion. Howe e , mo e complex p og ammes a e also used o gi e hou ly esul s o all ou pu s, which may include ene gy demand, indoo empe a u es, and humidi y, su ace empe a u es, com o le els and o he esul s [26,27]. DesignBuilde .5, wi h i s inbuil Ene gyPlus dynamic simula ion p og amme used in his pape is well- known wo ldwide and o e s a powe ul ool o pe o m ene gy simula ions. Ene gyPlus is one o he mos ecognized and widely used ools o analysing mul i-zone sys ems. I is a he mal and ene gy 4 simula ion p og amme o buildings ha has been de eloped and upda ed o e decades by he Depa men o Ene gy o he Uni ed S a es o Ame ica. The building´s 3D-model is shown in Figu e 1. The model was p o ided in Au oCAD o ma by he Technical A chi ec u e Uni (UTA) o he Uni e si y o Valladolid and his model could be in oduced in o DesignBuilde easily. Map Key 7 Pho o ol aic cells skyligh 1 Pho o ol aic cells skyligh 8 A ium 2 Na u al ligh ing de ices 9 Pho o ol aic cu ain wall 3 Con ol ligh ing 10 CHP 4 Pho o ol aic iles 11 The mal b idge ee cons uc ion 5 Ene gy egene a ion li and sleep sys em 12 Geo he mal ubes a ea 6 G een oo 13 Au oshading windows Fig. 1. A is imp ession o he 3D ZEB LUCIA Quali y checks we e also ca ied ou o ensu e ha he p o ided model and he ac ual building cha ac e is ics ma ch. The de elopmen o he model is no only p oposed a a s uc u al le el, bu also as an ene gy model. Figu e 2 shows he modeled building in Design Builde pla o m. Fig. 2. Model o he LUCIA building by Design Builde 5 3. Desc ip ion o he case s udy ZEB Building wi h ze o CO2 emissions. The “LUCIA” ze o-ene gy ze o-ca bon building is si ua ed a he Uni e si y o Valladolid, in he ci y o Valladolid, Spain [12]. The speci ic building has a o al a ea o 7,500 m2, and i belongs o he ce i ied ca ego y o ze o ene gy buildings, mainly composed o labo a o y, esea ch and spin-o spaces ela ed o me abolopa hies (2.100 m2); nu i ion, ood and die (2.100 m2) and de elopmen o he knowledge digi al socie y (950 m2) (Figu e 3). Fig. 3. LUCIA building, Valladolid, Spain LUCIA is conside ed as one o he lagship e e ence ZEB buildings in he wo ld, wi h he highes possible acc edi a ions ce i ied wi h 98 poin s in LEED ce i ica ion. This is he maximum sco e a ained so a in Eu ope and in he whole No he n hemisphe e o any building, and he second highes a ing o LEED PLATINUM in he whole wo ld, only su passed by he building PIXEL in Aus alia [28]. On he o he hand, his ZEB is also ce i ied by ano he ool, he G een Tool (G een Building Council Spain – GBC Spain), which e alua es he en i onmen al impac o he building acco ding o 12 indica o s o he Basic Se o Indica o s (CSI) o he Eu opean En i onmen al Agency (EEA), wi h he p io i ies se in he Eu opean and na ional policies and wi h he Agency's managemen plan [29,30]. These a e subjec o egula e iew and linked wi h o he in e na ional indica o s. The esul o 4.52 ou o 5 indica es he high en i onmen al quali y o he building. This Ze o Ene gy Building educes 31% he deple ion o non- enewable esou ces, when compa ed o he p ima y ene gy o s anda d buildings, and mo e han 90% o he impac s o buildings o e clima e change, loss o soil e ili y and he emission o pho o-oxidize s p oduc s. I also educed almos by 100%, he damage ha he building could make on aqua ic li e o he p oduc ion o haza dous was e [12]. The building is being ully moni o ed by ene gy me e s o he boile , he cogene a ion plan , he chille , he abso p ion uni and he ho wa e o sani a y use sys ems (powe , low a es, s o ed ene gy) always h ough ModBus p o ocol; hea ing, en ila ion and ai condi ioning ene gy consump ion is also being moni o ed h ough pulse coun e s. The e a e also o e 97 elec ical ne wo k analyze s dis ibu ed all a ound he building o measu e he zone’s ac i e ene gy, eac i e ene gy, phase ol age, equency, 6 h ough ModBus p o ocol [31]. I is he e o e possible o moni o he le els o ene gy consump ion and com o o each zone. The building also in oduces simple solu ions o a chi ec u al in eg a ion o pho o ol aic sola ene gy, which a ou he objec i e o neu al emission o CO2 (Fig. 4 and Fig. 5). The Eu opean Di ec i e 2010/31/EU u ges Membe S a es o ensu e ha all newly cons uc ed buildings a e nea ly ze o ene gy buildings (NZEB) as o Decembe 31s 2020, while public adminis a ion buildings, need o comply wo yea s ea lie in Janua y 2019, o lead by example. The Spanish O de FOM/1635/2013 o Sep embe 10 h, upda es BD HE and ansposes Di ec i e 2010/31/EU o he Eu opean Pa liamen and o he Council o 19 May 2010 on he ene gy pe o mance o buildings. The o de es ablishes a i s s ep o he objec i e o Nea ly Ze o Ene gy buildings, wi hin Spanish building egula ion [19]. Fig. 4. In e nal iew o PV modules on acade Fig. 5. Ex e nal iew o he PV modules on acade This building also inco po a es passi e measu es o a sou h bioclima ic building design, such as o ien a ion, enhancemen o sola gains in win e and sun con ol in summe , as well as na u al en ila ion wi h geo he mal eco e y, he mal insula ion o walls and ape u es and double glazed a gon- illed windows. Combined hea and powe sys ems ueled by biomass, oge he wi h high e iciency hea ing, en ila ion and ai -condi ioning sys ems, coupled wi h back-up abso p ion cooling sys em and geo he mal sys ems ha e all been ins alled. Na u al ligh ing has been in oduced as an impo an concep in his de elopmen , bo h o di ec and di use adia ion, h ough he use o special de ices. A i icial ligh ing is con olled h ough he use o high e iciency ligh s oge he wi h lux le el in ensi y and occupancy con ol. This building also se s new le els o sa ing wa e , h ough collec ion and euse o ainwa e and g ey wa e , wi h sepa a ion ne wo ks in he labo a o ies ha allow ea men p io o discha ge; sani a y appliances ha e been equipped wi h elec onic aps wi h educed wa e low. The use o na i e ege a ion on he oo ha does no need i iga ion sys em has also been conside ed. Bioclima ic building design, inc eased insula ion, passi e en ila ion and o he s a egies and echnology measu es allow he educ ion in ene gy demand by mo e han 50%, when compa ed o a s anda d building simula ed as he base scena io building in DesignBuilde , Fo ligh ing, sa ings o 45% we e achie ed, mainly due o he la ge glazed açade co e ing 46% o he o al wall a ea, coupled wi h he special in oduc ion o hollows, o e head ligh ing de ices such as ligh ubes and egula ion o he lux le el acco ding o he ex e nal luminosi y. The use o enewable ene gy sys ems, especially he CHP plan p o ides 30% ex a ene gy gene a ed, which supplemen s he ene gy needs o he annex nea by buildings. The o e all esul is Ze o ene gy and balance ze o in ca bon (CO2) emissions o his building. Ano he impo an elemen o he design has been he use o ma e ials o low en i onmen al impac and li e cycle, ha ing minimum p oduc ion ene gy and low emission ce i ica es o hei manu ac u e. Recycled ma e ials and e-used building elemen s, which educe as much as possible he was e gene a ed in he cons uc ion p ocess, while being easily emo able, ha e been ex ensi ely used (Figu e 6). 7 Fig. 6. Renewable ene gy gene a ion sys ems used in he building The main cons uc ion cha ac e is ic o his building is he zigzag shaped acade, which gene a es an au o-shading and a na u al ea e due o he o ged conc e e on he op o each window and glass su ace, o bo h eas and wes o ien a ions. The building was buil wi h plas e ed in e nal insula ed walls wi h a he mal ansmi ance o 0.157 W/m2K, and a high he mal ine ia, which educes he impac o he ex e nal empe a u e changes on he building. In addi ion, he pho o ol aic acade o he building p oduces a simila shadow o he one p oduced by double en elope sys ems. One also no es he use o g een oo s o educe he u ban-hea -island e ec on he su ace. The combined hea and powe sys em o he building, uelled by biomass, has a consump ion (o biomass) be ween 100-125 kg/h. This gene a es elec ici y o he alue o 100-130 kWh and a he mal ene gy p oduc ion o 200-220 kWh, o which 100-110 kWh is supplied a 90 ºC and he emaining 100- 110 kWh a 450 ºC. Addi ionally, he e a e wo con en ional biomass boile s o p oduce hea as a backup, only when he hea ing demand o he building exceeds 200 kW (Figu e 7). Map Key 1 Cooling (Ai -Wa e ) 200kW 7 CHP (Biomass) 2 Con ol Val e 8 Cooling owe 3 Engine cooling 9 Biomass Boile 300kW 4 Exhaus gases CHP 10 The mal s o age 5 Ene gy Reco e y 90kW 11 Ho wa e Discha ge 90ºC 6 Elec ici y supply 12 Ho wa e Re u n Fig. 7. CHP sys em 8 This hea ing sys em is connec ed o a biomass cogene a ion sys em, as pa o a gasi ica ion p ocess o biomass, whe e he elec ici y is p oduced h ough he con olled bu ning o biomass. This gene a es gas ha is in oduced in se e al in e nal al e na i e ec i ied combus ion engines o gene a e elec ici y, as shown in Figu e 8. Fig. 8. Biomass Cogene a ion The CHP sys em wo ks in an unin e up ed way and a maximum powe om 8 a.m. o 10 p.m. om Monday o F iday. This is ca ied ou by 5 engines wi h 4 o hem p oducing 100-130 kW, while he i h one is pe manen ly kep in ese e mode, o allow o main enance ope a ions and eme gency si ua ions. This building wo ks wi h hea eco e y uni s, eaching a 61% eco e y a e; he emaining pe cen age is gene a ed by a biomass boile using wood chips, a common uel in he egion whe e he building is si ua ed, gi en he ex ensi e o es landscape. This CHP boile has a nominal powe a ing o 329 kW and an e iciency o 0.88. The ai -condi ioning sys em o he building comp ises a 100% ex e nal cons an low sys em ha supplies hea ing and cooling associa ed o he en ila ion sys em (Figu e 9). The hea is managed by 4- ube ancoil sys ems dis ibu ed h oughou he building. Fig. 9. Ai Handling Uni Sys em wi h indi ec e apo a i e eco e y (AHU) An abso p ion cycle p o ides cooling o he building wi h ene gy e iciency a io (EER) o 0.7 and a powe o 176 kW (Figu e 10). In addi ion, i possesses a con en ional ai cooling sys em wi h a capaci y o 232.7 kW and an EER o 3.3 (Figu e 11). A cooling owe wi h wo an speed se es o emo e he was e hea p oduced by he abso p ion sys em. The low o he ans and ex e nal ai en ila ion sys em each 15,000 m3/h. The model o con ol o ai -condi ioning o his building can be done in wo di e en ways, i s h ough he con ol o he cons an ai low, and second h ough he se empe a u e, depending on he season. 9 Fig. 10. Abso p ion Cooling Sys em Fig. 11. Chille sys em I is possible o use ee-cooling in he main ai ea men uni when he sys em is gene a ing cool ai in summe , which inc eases he e iciency o he sys ems. This is ca ied ou by a geo he mal en ila ion sys em o G ound Hea Exchange (GHE) and a noc u nal en ila ion sys em, in o de o cool he building in a na u al way. The en ila ion sys em o he building p esen s ou wo king modes, wi h GHE, wi hou GHE and addi ionally he e is he possibili y o wo king wi h o wi hou ee cooling (Fig.12). Also he e is he possibili y o adding he hea eco e y op ion. In summa y he modes could be: wi h GHE and hea eco e y, wi hou GHE and hea eco e y, o only ee cooling, whe e nei he he GHE no he hea eco e y sys ems a e wo king. The con ol sys em implemen ed in he ene gy sys ems aims o each he se poin s h ough he cheapes ene gy sys em due o an en halpy con ol, aking in o accoun he consump ion o he auxilia y elemen s in ol ed in he use o he di e en echnologies. The GHE sys em is comp ised o 56 wells, o 200 mm diame e and 16 me es bu ied pipes, wi h an es ima ed low o 15,000 m3/h. This p o ides a hea ing close o 162,000 kWh/yea and a cooling supply o 150,740 kWh/yea , o he 6,264 wo king hou s o he building pe yea . When analysing he CO2 emissions sa ing, his ansla es o 13,380 kg o ee hea ing mode and 7,650 kg o ee cooling mode o CO2 sa ed pe yea . Fig. 12. GHE The ligh ing o he building includes elec onic T5 ballas s wi h Digi al Add essable Ligh ing In e ace, (DALI), buil in he suspended ceiling, and is designed acco ding o ligh ing egula ions. This aims o supply o ices and labo a o ies wi h 9.7 W/m2 and co ido s wi h 3.8 W/m2. In ci cula ion and o he a eas, downligh LEDs and DALI luo escen s a e used [32]. All hese implemen ed measu es o ene gy e iciency demons a e he e ec i eness o bioclima ic building design s a egies employed in he building, in o de o ex apola e hese s a egies o o he 16 Table 2. Inc ease o peak and minimum empe a u es by in e als o yea s. In e als 20202050 20502080 20202080 Ex e nal Tempe a u e (4.7 ºC6.0 ºC) Win e (23.3 ºC26.5 ºC) Summe (6.0 ºC7.1 ºC) Win e (26.5 ºC29.5 ºC) Summe (4.7 ºC7.1 ºC) Win e (23.3 ºC29.5 ºC) Summe Indoo Ai Tempe a u e (18.6 ºC18.8 ºC) Win e (25.8 ºC26.5 ºC) Summe (18.8 ºC19.4 ºC) Win e (26.5 ºC27.0 ºC) Summe (18.6 ºC19.4 ºC) Win e (25.8 ºC27.6 °C) Summe Indoo Radian Tempe a u e (18.5 ºC18.7 ºC) Win e (27.6 ºC28.3 ºC) Summe (18.7 ºC19.4 ºC) Win e (28.3 ºC29.0 ºC) Summe (18.5 ºC19.4 ºC) Win e (27.6 ºC29.0 ºC) Summe Ope a i e Tempe a u e (18.5 ºC18.8 ºC) Win e (26.7 ºC27.4 ºC) Summe (18.8 ºC19.4 ºC) Win e (27.4 ºC28.0 ºC) Summe (18.5 ºC19.4 ºC) Win e (26.7 ºC28.0 ºC) Summe This inc ease in ex e nal ai empe a u e implies a a ia ion in he com o pa ame e s, and he e o e, when es ablishing he indoo ai con ol empe a u es, p e en i e adjus men s will ha e o be made o coun e balance his quan i a i e inc ease o empe a u e inside he building. In he i s 30 yea s, om 2020 o 2050, indoo ai will be a ec ed by an inc ease o less han 1 ºC o he ope a i e empe a u e (0.3 ºC in win e and 0.7 ºC in summe . Fo he yea s be ween 2050 and 2080, he inc ease in indoo ai empe a u e is o he o de o ano he 0.7 °C. When compa ing hese empe a u es o he equi emen s o he S anda d CTE F amewo k o Spain o buildings, which se s he win e empe a u e o 21 ºC and he summe empe a u e o 26 ºC, i becomes appa en ha an added cooling load will be equi ed in summe and less hea ing in win e . Figu e 23 shows he de elopmen o he ope a i e empe a u es o con ol e sus he mon hs o di e en in e als o yea s. I can be seen ha he ope a i e empe a u e inc eases om 2020 o 2080 and he di e ence is mo e p onounced be ween June and Sep embe . The e olu ion o empe a u es is always ising up o a maximum 28 ºC in summe and his needs o be con olled. Fig. 23. De elopmen o he ope a i e empe a u e o e he yea s e sus he mon hs in 2020, 2050 and 2080 I is wo h no ing ha he inc ease in indoo empe a u e due o clima e change is no only a esul o ex e nal empe a u e ise bu also due o mo e sola gains. O e he coming u u e yea s be ween 2020 and 2080, an inc ease be ween 4 and 6 % in sola gain is expec ed. In addi ion, i is impo an o men ion ha he hea losses h ough he walls will be lowe , gi en ha he empe a u e g adien be ween indoo and ex e nal ai is lowe . The d op in hea losses is on he o de o 8%. 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Tempe a u e (ºC) 2020 2050 2080 17 To summa ize, he o e all e ec o wea he changes on he hea ing and cooling demand is shown in Table 3. One no ices ha as he yea s p og ess, he hyb id hea ing-cooling pe iods in he lee mon hs mos ly disappea and a e eplaced by cooling only. Table 3. Inc ease o consump ion by in e als o yea s. In e als 20202050 20502080 20202080 To al Hea ing Consump ion -11.98% -18.56% -28.32% To al Cooling Consump ion +16.44% +21.85% +34.00% Mon hly hea ing demand is shown in Figu e 24 o he di e en yea s unde s udy. I can be seen ha he hea ing demand be ween May and Oc obe is p ac ically nil and he e o e any hea ing gene a ed by he i-gene a ion sys em shall be de o ed o he p oduc ion o cooling by he abso p ion sys em. Fig. 24. Mon hly o al demand o space hea ing along he yea s 2020, 2050 and 2080 Wi h ega ds o cooling, he demand is expec ed o inc ease by 34% by 2080. This will be mainly co e ed by he i-gene a ion sys em ha bu ns bio uel o supply ene gy o he abso p ion sys em. The con ibu ion o sola pho o ol aics is expec ed o emain cons an o he whole pe iod, because al hough he sola adia ion is expec ed o inc ease sligh ly ( he e o e highe gene a ion o sola pho o ol aic elec ici y), bu he ex e nal empe a u e will also inc ease (causing lowe e iciency o he pho o ol aic panels), hus making he ne e ec on pho o ol aic elec ical p oduc ion minimal. Figu e 25 shows he mon hly changes in cooling ene gy consump ion o he yea s 2020, 2050 and 2080. I is wo h no ing ha ce ain mon hs such as May and Oc obe ha had li le demand o cooling will e en ually equi e much mo e. 0 10 20 30 40 50 MWh 2020 2050 2080 18 Fig. 25. To al Cooling consump ion e sus mon hs o di e en yea s, 2020, 2050 and 2080. Simila ly, mechanical en ila ion will expe ience an inc ease o almos 3%, when compa ed o 2020. Table 4 shows he de ailed esul s o each pe iod unde analysis. Table 4. Expec ed inc ease o consump ion o mechanical en ila ion. In e als 20202050 20502080 Ven ila ion +3.87% +2.57% Finally, an obse a ion on ai changes pe hou (ACH) has been analysed. Figu e 26 shows he o e all mon hly a ia ion o he yea s unde conside a ion. As expec ed, he summe ACH is highe han win e and he e will be li le change o e he yea s. Fig.26. De elopmen o ai changes pe hou e sus he mon hs in 2020, 2050 and 2080. 5. Conclusions In his pape , a desc ip ion was gi en o one o he op ZEB p ojec s in he wo ld, acco ding o LEED ce i ica ion. The objec i e o s udy was o analyse he long- e m ene gy pe o mance o he building, when subjec ed o clima e change in 2050 and 2080. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 MWh 2020 2050 2080 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 ACH 2020 2050 2080 19 In o de o implemen his analysis, a model o he LUCIA building has been simula ed using he DesignBuilde e sion 5 so wa e and Ene gyPlus modeling engine, aking he clima ic da a used in he Spanish s anda d o buildings and using a clima e da a change emula o o ob ain he building's ene gy pe o mance o e he nex 60 yea s. Resul s ha e shown ha while space hea ing demand is expec ed o d op, space cooling will inc ease app eciably. Knowing and aking s ock o his dec ease in hea ing consump ion and he inc ease in cooling consump ion, i is concluded ha he bu ning o biomass will ha e o inc ease by 25% o p o ide mo e ene gy o he abso p ion cooling sys em. This 25% inc ease will be p o ided wi h he abso p ion cooling sys em wo king a maximum capaci y and he chille as a suppo sys em o complemen he ene gy demand, which oge he will be su icien o sa is y he demand, p o ided ha hey a e assis ed by p ope p e en i e main enance o hese ene gy sys ems. The peak demand in he yea s 2020 and 2050 is ully co e ed by exis ing ene gy sys ems. As men ioned be o e, he cooling demand o 2080 would be highe and he exis ing machines will ha e a de iciency be ween 9.45 kW o 47.72 kW o a ew hou s in a yea . This is accep able gi en ha he con idence le el o sa is ying a leas 95% o he hou s o cooling will s ill be achie ed acco ding o he Spanish legisla ion on ene gy sys ems in buildings. Mo eo e , any sola pho o ol aic excess ene gy ha used o supply he nea by buildings will now be consumed wi hin he building. This implies ha in spi e o he inc ease in demand, he exis ing enewable ene gy sys ems will s ill be capable o supplying he ex a ene gy equi ed, especially o cooling. Thus, he building will e ain i s unique cha ac e is ics as a ZEB. Finally, wi h hese nume ical esul s, one can d aw he conclusion o he nega i e e ec s o clima e change on ZEB wi h espec o he pa ame e s o ene gy consump ion and i s u u e impac . Howe e , such a s udy helps us an icipa e hese e ec s and p opose new imp o emen s in he acili ies and ene gy sys ems and p oceed o be e manage and con ol he building’s ope a ion. The e o e, clima e change is an impo an concep in he building sec o , which mus be aken in o accoun in he design and main enance o ene gy sys ems and o making imp o emen p oposals o educing building ene gy consump ion. 6. Re e ences. [1] O. Edenho e , K. Seybo h, In e go e nmen al Panel on Clima e Change (IPCC), in: Encycl. Ene gy, Na . Resou . En i on. 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