Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand

UNIVERSIDAD DE MÁLAGA FACULTAD DE TURISMO Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand TESIS DOCTORAL “por compendio de publicaciones” Director: Antonio Fernández Morales Dirección y Planificación del Turismo José David Cisneros Martínez 2016 Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand Memoria que presenta para optar al título de Doctor en Turismo por la Universidad de Málaga D. José David Cisneros Martínez Dirigida por el Doctor: Dr. Antonio Fernández Morales Programa de Doctorado en Dirección y Planificación del Turismo Facultad de Turismo Universidad de Málaga Málaga, 2016 D. Antonio Fernández Morales, Profesor Titular de la Universidad de Málaga, CERTIFICA: Que la memoria presentada por D. José David Cisneros Martínez, bajo el título “Seasonal concentration decomposition across segments of tourism demand”, ha sido realizada bajo mi dirección, reuniendo a mi juicio los requisitos necesarios para optar al grado de Doctor por la Universidad de Málaga, por lo que autorizo su presentación. Asimismo, informo que las publicaciones que avalan la tesis no han sido publicadas en tesis anteriores. Y para que así conste, firmo el presente certificado. En Málaga a 6 de noviembre de 2015 Fdo.: Antonio Fernández Morales Profesor Titular Departamento de Economía Aplicada (Estadística y Econometría) Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales Universidad de Málaga AGRADECIMIENTOS Quiero agradecer a mi director Antonio Fernández Morales por la confianza depositada en mí y por la dedicación y esfuerzo que ha empleado en la realización y culminación de esta tesis doctoral. A todos los miembros del departamento de Economía Aplicada (Estadística y Econometría), especialmente al director Francisco Trujillo Aranda, al secretario Fernando Isla Castillo y al administrativo Miguel Ángel Coca Ruiz por ayudarme en los asuntos burocráticos y proporcionarme los medios necesarios para desarrollar mi carrera investigadora en este periodo pre doctoral. A Enrique Navarro Jurado por estar siempre disponible y guiarme en el procedimiento para la lectura de la tesis doctoral. A todos los miembros del Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo del Turismo (CIDeTur) de la Escuela de Economía y Negocios de la Universidad Nacional de San Martín, especialmente a su directora Daniela Thiel Ellul, por facilitarme una estancia de investigación en su centro. A los miembros del departamento Tourism Management and Marketing de la Nottingham University Business School de la Universidad de Nottingham, especialmente al Dr. Scott McCabe, quien además de facilitarme dos estancias de investigación en su Universidad, hemos tenido la oportunidad de publicar artículos de investigación conjuntos que me han sido de gran ayuda para ampliar mis conocimientos en la materia de mi tesis doctoral. Al Plan Propio de Investigación y a la Escuela de Doctorado de la Universidad de Málaga por su financiación para la realización de estancias breves en universidades extranjeras y para la asistencia a congresos internacionales. Al Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte por financiar mi periodo pre doctoral mediante un contrato de Formación del Profesorado Universitario (FPU). A mi madre, mis hermanos, mis amigos y mi pareja por su apoyo incondicional. INCLUDED PAPERS AND BOOK CHAPTERS 1: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D., & Fernández-Morales, A. (2015). Cultural tourism as tourist segment for reducing seasonality in a coastal area: the case study of Andalusia. Current Issues in Tourism, 18(8), 765-784. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2013.861810 2: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D., & Fernández-Morales, A. (2015). Destination Competitiveness, the Environment and Sustainability: Challenges and Cases. In M. Kozak, & A. Artal (Eds.), Understanding seasonal concentration of tourist arrivals: An exploratory study for the South of Spain (pp. 131-143). Wallingford: CAB International. doi: 10.1079/9781780646978.0131 3: Fernández-Morales, A., & Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. (2015). Seasonal Inequalities in Visitor Distribution in Argentina’s Tourism Regions. e-Review of Tourism Research, 12(1/2), 115-126. URL: http://3ws1wk1wkqsk36zmd6ocne81.wpengine.netdnacdn.com/files/2015/08/3.-eRTR_ARN_Vol.12-No1.2_Fernández-Morales-andCisneros-Martínez.pdf 4: Cisneros Martínez, J. D., & Fernández-Morales, A. (2016). Concentración estacional de la demanda hotelera en Argentina. Revista de Estudios Regionales, 106, 197-221. Retrieved from http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/articulos/pdfarticulo-2499.pdf 5. Fernández-Morales, A., Cisneros-Martínez, J. D., & McCabe, S. (2016). Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implications. Tourism Management, 56, 172-190. doi: 10.1016/j.tourman.2016.04.004 CONFERENCE CONTRIBUTIONS 1: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. (2013, Mayo). A measurement of seasonal concentration in tourism. Comunicación presentada en Annual Research Conference 2013. Council for Hospitality Management Education´s (CHME). Queen Margaret University, Edimburgo, Escocia. 2: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D., & Fernández-Morales, A. (2013). Análisis de la concentración estacional del turismo en Andalucía a través de la entrada de flujos turísticos en los aeropuertos andaluces. En P. Águas, F. Serra, & J. Santos (Eds.), TMS Algarve 2013-Tourism & Management Studies International Conference (p. 55). Olhão, Portugal: Escola Superior de Gestão, Hotelaria e Turismo, Universidade do Algarve. ISBN: 978-989-8472-36-6 3: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D., & Fernández-Morales, A. (2014). Seasonal concentration of tourism on the Andalusian coastline. En M. Kozak, & N. Kozak (Eds.), 7th World Conference for Graduate Research in Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure (pp. 801-806). Estambul, Turquía: Anatolia. ISBN: 978-605-4940-25-7 4: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. (2014, Agosto). Concentración estacional de la demanda hotelera en Argentina. Comunicación presentada en 1ª Jornada de Licenciatura en Turismo y 2º Simposio Internacional Turismo y Sustentabilidad, Buenos Aires, Argentina. XVI Summary objective is to reduce seasonal concentration. For comparison purposes, a complementary analysis was carried out in which passengers arriving at Andalusian airports were used as the unit of measurement instead. In this case, passenger segmentation was done according to airports and whether they were national or international passengers. The reasoning behind this decision is based on the fact that 81% of international tourists visiting the Andalusian coastline use the plane as their mode of transport. Although only 16% of domestic tourists use airplane transport, the national segment was kept in the analysis to maintain consistency in the applied decomposition, as well as to analyse whether this segment had specific seasonal characteristics. The estimated Gini indices for international passengers were within the same range as the ones estimated in the previous chapter, which used as a unit of measurement traveller staying in hotels. By contrast, domestic passengers showed an extremely low level of seasonal concentration, significantly differing from the previous analysis (using the data from travellers staying in hotels). The difference is due to the fact that domestic passengers using the plane as a mode of transport form a minority quite different in participation than the national segment of travellers. If we distinguish the seasonal pattern and evolution of the Gini indices by airports, the Gini indices for Málaga airport is equivalent to the one obtained for all the Andalusian airports; this can also be explained by the fact that Málaga airport is responsible for 69% of all arrivals to the region. For a more comprehensive view, seasonal factors were estimated in five Andalusian airports, differentiating between national and international passengers. The seasonal pattern of domestic passengers is clearly distinguishable from domestic travellers grouped in the sun and sand segment and other segments that were analysed in the previous chapter. Therefore, the domestic passenger segment should be seen as a possible objective for direct catchment policies designed to reduce seasonality. On the other hand, international passengers showed a greater level of concentration during the summer months, especially at small airports. Finally, the additive decomposition of the Gini index was only first applied to the main Andalusian airports, which are the Málaga and Sevilla airports; afterwards, it was applied to all Andalusian airports as a whole up to the year 2013, where international passengers were segmented according to country of origin, and airport of arrival. Some of the results on this chapter indicate that the seasonal patterns together with the consequent degree of seasonal concentration in the segments analysed, differ significantly when they are studied with higher levels of segmentation. Therefore, an adequate level of segmentation is essential in order to better focus policies against seasonality. The use of double segmentation (by origin and by main travel motivation) in the coasts analysed did not only reveal very interesting results, but it also helped identify segments with features that are not visible in the simplest segmentations. Furthermore, the analysis of the passengers also provided some useful results such as, the potential deseasonalising effect of domestic passengers and the identification of the XVII Summary countries from where passengers arriving to either Málaga or Sevilla airport were coming from. Finally, the growing trend of seasonal concentration indices in many coasts and airports in Andalusia indicate that policies adopted in recent years to fight seasonality have not been sufficiently effective. Therefore, more research is still needed in order to provide policy makers and tourism managers with more concise information on the phenomenon of seasonality in Andalusia. Chapter 4 analysed the distribution of travellers staying in different types of regulated accommodations in Argentina’s touristic regions. The estimated seasonal factors and the Gini (without marginal decomposition) in which the domestic and international demand were distinguished, were also analysed. In addition, the territorial and tourists classification established by the Hotel Occupancy Survey elaborated by Argentina’s Ministry of Tourism and National Statistic and Census Institute, was used as the main statistical source in this chapter. Thus, based on Argentina’s Ministry of Tourism definition of touristic regionalization, the 23 provinces were grouped into six touristic regions: Buenos Aires, Centro, Cuyo, Litoral, Norte, and Patagonia. The city of Buenos Aires was added as a separate region given the destination’s high travel demand. The degree of concentration of tourism demand in Argentina is not very high compared to other international destinations, but still, there are disparities in the level of seasonal concentration among regions. At a national level, federal tourism plans have established measures to combat seasonality. Furthermore, there are laws, such as the Bank Holidays Act, that have been passed in order to counteract the effects of seasonality since, as in Spain, tourism is regarded as a strategic sector for Argentina. Specific studies about tourism seasonality in Argentina are scarce. The Argentine Ministry of Tourism only uses the seasonal factors figures obtained from the Hotel Occupancy Survey to analyse the phenomenon of seasonality. The impact seasonal concentration has on hotel demand in Argentina and its touristic regions is analysed in this chapter using the monthly variable ‘visitors staying in hotels and para-hotels establishments’ in the Hotel Occupancy Survey. Moreover, the regional disaggregation used is the one described above with the exception that in the regions of origin for domestic tourists, the city of Buenos Aires has been added to the region of Buenos Aires since visitors from both regions have a similar seasonal pattern. The study presented in this chapter aimed to enrich the quantitative framework used by the Argentine Ministry of Tourism by using the Gini index, which provides a synthetic measure for the annual degree of seasonal concentration. In addition, the strategies that are being carried out today in Argentina to combat seasonality are briefly described. The main results also revealed that there were significant inequalities both in the seasonal patterns of different demands and in seasonal concentration levels. Therefore, one of the main implications of this chapter for policies designed to combat seasonality is to consider the concentration of tourism demand by region visited, origin, and volume. XVIII Summary An excessively aggregated analysis can hide specific seasonal characteristics found in different regional markets, which in turn prevents for effective strategies against seasonality to be provided. In this sense, if in addition to the seasonal factors, the Gini index is applied to tourists’ series adequately; useful disaggregated information that could be effective in the design of policies against seasonality can be obtained. Policies to combat seasonality have varying degrees of effectiveness depending, among other factors, on the weight that the domestic demand has in the overall tourism demand in each region. This chapter also poses new questions for future lines of research. For instance, to find a better explanation of the effects various segments analysed (by origin) have on the overall level of concentration, a more precise disaggregation of domestic and foreign tourists would need to be carried (by regions, and countries or continent, respectively). This has been done in the following chapter. In Chapter 5, the seasonal concentration of the hotel demand in the touristic regions of Argentina were analysed using the additive decomposition of the Gini index as it helps to identify more easily the least seasonal visitors. The results of this chapter indicated that, given the heterogeneity between regions in terms of seasonality, it was necessary to disaggregate domestic tourists at least by region of origin and international ones by countries. Using this level of disaggregation showed that most of the international origins are favourable for deseasonalisation. With regards to domestic tourists and to the reduction of seasonality in some regions, residents proceeding from the same region are seen as the most favourable ones. This is information that would go unnoticed if the total number of residents was analysed without the disaggregation aforementioned. In Argentina, there is concern regarding the effects seasonality has in the tourism sector. However, there are few studies that examine the presence of seasonality in tourism demand, and in the few that do, only time series methods are used to evaluate the seasonality caused by inbound tourism in the country. At an institutional level, the tourism action plans developed by the Ministry of Tourism are only at an national scale, among them are the two editions of the Plan Federal Estratégico de Turismo Sustentable (The Strategic Federal Plan for Sustainable Tourism): the Plan de Marketing Internacional Conectar (The International Marketing Plan Connect) and the Plan de Marketing de Turismo Interno Conectar (The Internal Toursim Marketing Plan Connect). However, these plans resort to a traditional way of calculating the seasonal factors of overnight stays in hotels and para-hotel establishments, by using a disaggregation that only distinguishes between the overnight stays carried out by national and international tourists throughout all the country’s regions. In both plans some measures against seasonality are established. Due to all the above, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures, it is necessary to have quantitative tools which are able to measure seasonal concentration levels along with their evolution, in addition to the participation of certain tourists in the observed seasonal concentration level. XIX Summary Regarding the institutional measures against tourism seasonality, one of the strategies used in Argentina to reduce the negative effects of seasonality and generate a better temporal distribution of tourist flows has been the organising of national holidays in order to plan work breaks and displacements three-year in advance. Other tools established by the Argentine Ministry of Tourism to fight seasonality worth highlighting are: the managing of events in Argentine destinations to boost economic development, and the creation of a social tourism federal program that is in effect during low season. In addition, some Regional Integrating Products are established in the Regional Strategy Reports, which may be useful to counteract the effects of seasonality as they can be carried out at any time during the year. To all these measures against seasonality aforementioned, it would be useful to add analytical tools such as those proposed herein; these tools enable us to discern which tourists can help in reducing seasonal concentration by studying the usual seasonal patterns of tourists. Among some of the main results, one could observe that the use of a simple disaggregation (where both domestic and international tourists were differentiated) identified domestic tourists, in the period analysed, as the most favourable for deseasonalisation; they demonstrated negative relative marginal effects. These results for the North and Central regions and for the city of Buenos Aires were also the same. However, in the last year analysed, the results in the domestic segment, for six of the seven regions, were contrary to previous years. This diagnosis changed and was considerably enriched when a more comprehensive segmentation of domestic and international tourists (classified according to region or country of residence) was used. Thus, in 2013 the most favourable segment in six of the seven regions analysed was the one which had the same region of residence, together with most of international tourists. Both showed negative relative marginal effects of varying magnitude, which emphasized the relationship between the behaviour of less seasonal international tourists with their proximity to their countries of residence. Moreover, the measures against seasonality proposed in the tourism action plans elaborated by the Argentine Ministry of Tourism are very limited, and they do not include the development of analytical tools that are able to determine with sufficient detail who are those visitors that can make a greater contribution to the reduction of seasonality. Therefore, the methodology proposed in this thesis, i.e., the application of relative marginal effects as a quantitative measure of the deseasonalising effect, as well as a the disaggregation of the hotel demand in Argentina (used in this chapter), can be a valuable aid in the design and implementation of action plans against seasonality in this country. In Chapter 6, tourism seasonality in the UK, and in England and its regions was analysed. Again, for these destinations, tourism demand was disaggregated by the tourists´ country of origin, and by their main travel motivation. To date, there have been very few studies on seasonality in the UK and its measurement. Furthermore, none of them have focused on England. Similarly, there are no studies that analyse the XX Summary behaviour of both domestic and international tourists in the UK. Tourism is one of the most important industries in that country, and like many international destinations, seasonality is institutionally recognized as a problem for the sector. In addition, as part of their strategy to increase tourism, tourism programs, are carried out in the UK during low season as a way to promote various less seasonal tourism programs that are classified both by region and by season. To carry out this analysis, the unit of measurement used was the number of trips made both by domestic and foreign tourists. Furthermore, to identify domestic tourists the monthly Great Britain Tourism Survey from 2011 was used. Similarly, the monthly International Passenger Survey was used to identify international tourists, which were classified by countries of origin. In addition, in order to disaggregate international tourists by their country of origin, the quarterly data Travelpac 2013, elaborated from the International Passenger Survey, was used. The seasonal concentration exerted by tourists visiting the UK is not very high compared to other international destinations, but it is nonetheless desirable to minimize its negative effects given the social and economic benefits that occur in a tourist destination. Thanks to the joint analysis of domestic and international tourists, we can see that international tourists exerted a less seasonal behaviour throughout the period analysed, and indeed they were favourable tourists in all the years observed. As for the level of concentration exerted by international tourists, it can be said that, generally, the closer the countries of origin were, the lower the Gini index was; therefore, they exerted a lower seasonal concentration in the UK. In addition, the international tourists who seemed to be more favourable for reducing seasonality during the entire period analysed were the European groupings, highlighting the EU15 group with negative relative marginal effects in all the years observed. While European tourists exerted a low level of concentration as a whole, with the disaggregation of international tourists by country of origin (used in this chapter), one could discern more accurately, and note that not all European tourists exerted a low concentration; Tourists from Austria, Germany, Estonia, Croatia and Iceland manifested a medium level of concentration, whereas, tourists from Bulgaria, Spain, France and Ireland exerted a significantly lower level of concentration. In the analysis of seasonal concentration of domestic tourism in England, the regions of this nation were analysed as independent destinations in order to identify the differences in the levels of concentration exerted in each of them by residents in Britain. Most seasonal concentration in all regions of England was exerted by tourists from Wales especially in the North East, Yorkshire, Humberside, East and East Midlands. The same occurred with those from Scotland, who also exerted a high concentration in all regions except in the North West. As for inter-regional demands, it was observed that in almost all regions, residents from the region itself (intra-regional tourists) exerted a medium level of concentration, with the exception of London and the West Midlands where they manifested a high concentration; they are precisely the only regions without a coast. The regions whose demand by regional origin had the highest concentration XXI Summary levels were the North East and the South West, where tourists from seven of the nine regions demonstrated a high level of concentration. On the contrary, the region of London received less seasonal inter-regional tourists; it exhibited a medium level of concentration from inter-regional tourists, with the exception of Londoners themselves and residents from the North East who both exerted a high level of concentration, visiting this region. As for Yorkshire and Humberside, they were the only regions in which no inter-regional tourists exerted a high level of concentration, except tourists coming from London. With the results obtained, one found that, at a regional level, proximity is not related to tourists´ less seasonal behaviour; the only case in which this was found not to be true was in the South East region where the less seasonal tourists are those from the region itself, and the adjacent region of the East. In the other regions, tourists who are considered as favourable for reducing seasonality came from both near and far regions. This chapter also analysed the seasonal concentration according to the main travel motivation expressed by tourists who visited the UK and the regions of England. In the case of the UK, the motivations for the domestic demand were categorised as followed: holiday, business or visiting friends and relatives. For the international demand, a ‘miscellaneous’ category was added along with the previous, according to the sources used. Also, in the regional analysis of England, the seasonal concentration in each region was evaluated depending on the main travel motivation of British resident tourists who visited England, and the same motivation categories applied to the UK´s domestic demand analysis were used. As previously mentioned in earlier chapters, the additive decomposition of the Gini index was used to obtain the relative marginal effect of each of the analysed demand segments’ Gini Index. From the decomposition made in this chapter, the components that were calculated in previous chapters are analysed with more in-depth. To be more precise, these components were the shares that each segment had in the total demand, and the Gini index correlation coefficient for the segments analysed with the total demand. To enrich the decomposition of the Gini index and represent their components, a multivariate graphical technique, the biplot, was used in order to identify demand segments with similar characteristics, and to interpret the variations between the Gini Index disaggregation components and their influence on the relative marginal effect. The importance of the methodology used in this chapter does not only consists of detecting demand segments that can contribute to the reduction of seasonal concentration by identifying the segments with lowest relative marginal effects, but also in the estimation and interpretation of the components in the dissagregation of the Gini index. These components can be very valuable in the design of policies against seasonality since they allow one to differentiate between demand segments that affect differently the seasonal concentration of the destinations analysed. Finally, it can be concluded that the results obtained in this thesis highlight the need to perform a more comprehensive analysis of tourism demand patterns in order to XXII Summary analyse the seasonality of tourist destinations. To do this, the methodology proposed in this thesis is very useful since it makes it possible to identify less seasonal segments in tourism demand. As it has been found in the destinations analysed in this thesis, an adequate level of disaggregation of tourism demand provides a better understanding of the seasonal concentration levels exerted by demand segments in the overall seasonal concentration of the destination to be analysed. In doing so, the effectiveness of policies aimed at fighting seasonality increases since the catchment policies can be addressed towards those tourists identified as less seasonal. Contents Summary XI 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Seasonality in tourism ............................................................................................ 1 1.1.1. The phenomenon of tourism seasonality ..................................................... 1 1.1.2. Causes and effects of seasonality in tourism sector ..................................... 2 1.1.3. Implications on the strategies against tourism seasonality .......................... 2 1.2. Quantitative evaluation of tourism seasonality ...................................................... 4 1.3. Thesis objective ..................................................................................................... 5 1.4. Reasoning behind the chosen analysed destinations .............................................. 6 1.5. Thesis structure ...................................................................................................... 6 2. Cultural tourism as tourist segment for reducing seasonality in a coastal area: the case study of Andalusia 11 2.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 12 2.2. Literature review .................................................................................................. 13 2.3. Touristic and territorial contextualization of the Andalusian coastline ............... 14 2.4. Methodology ........................................................................................................ 16 2.5. Results .................................................................................................................. 18 2.5.1. Seasonal patterns ....................................................................................... 18 2.5.2. Seasonal concentration .............................................................................. 20 2.5.3. Relative marginal effects ........................................................................... 23 2.6. Discussion ............................................................................................................ 26 2.7. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 27 2.8. Supplementary material: Table 1: Number of tourists staying in hotels on the Andalusian coastline by origin, by segments and by areas ......................................... 32 3. Understanding seasonal concentration of tourist arrivals: a case of the south of Spain 33 3.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 34 3.2. Literature review .................................................................................................. 35 3.3. Methodology ........................................................................................................ 35 4.4. Results .................................................................................................................. 36 4.5. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 45 4. Seasonal inequalities in visitor distributions in Argentina´s tourism regions 47 4.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 49 4.2. Literature review .................................................................................................. 49 4.3. Current measures against seasonality in Argentina ............................................. 51 4.4. Research methodology ......................................................................................... 52 4.5. Results and discussion ......................................................................................... 53 4.6. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 55 5. Concentración estacional de la demanda hotelera en Argentina `Seasonal concentration of the hotel demand in Argentina´ 61 5.1. Extended abstract ................................................................................................. 62 5.2. Introducción ......................................................................................................... 65 5.3. Revisión de la literatura ....................................................................................... 66 5.4. Contextualización territorial y turística de Argentina .......................................... 68 5.5. Metodología ......................................................................................................... 71 5.6. Resultados ............................................................................................................ 72 5.6.1. Patrones estacionales ................................................................................. 72 5.6.2. Concentración estacional ........................................................................... 76 5.6.3. Efectos relativos marginales ...................................................................... 79 5.7. Conclusiones ........................................................................................................ 82 6. Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: decomposition analysis and marketing implications 87 6.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 88 6.2. Seasonality in the tourism industry ...................................................................... 89 6.3. Data sources and Methodology ............................................................................ 90 6.3.1. Data sources ............................................................................................... 90 6.3.2. Methodology .............................................................................................. 91 6.4. Results .................................................................................................................. 92 6.4.1. Seasonal concentration of tourism in the UK ............................................ 92 6.4.2. Analyzing the UK international tourism demand ...................................... 92 6.4.3. Analyzing the concentration of the UK tourism demand by motivation ... 95 6.4.4. Analyzing regional tourism demand in England ....................................... 97 6.4.5. Marketing implications ............................................................................ 100 6.5. Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 102 Appendix: Gini index decomposition ....................................................................... 103 7. Conclusions 107 8. Appendix: Resumen en español 109 1 Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1. Seasonality in tourism 1.1.1. The phenomenon of tourism seasonality Seasonality is an intrinsic feature of the tourism sector (Allcock, 1994; Baum & Lundtorp, 2001), being one of the most pressing political issues in tourism management which has gained relevance in recent literature and in tourism management plans. Although seasonality is commonly associated with tourism, it is a phenomenon that affects many economic activities. Managers and tourism entrepreneurs show a widespread concern in countering the effects of seasonality because they have to deal with important problems caused by this phenomenon such as discontinuous jobs, restrictions on profitability, and the massification of tourist destinations. The aspects traditionally studied, such as the definition of seasonality, its causes, problems and strategies to tackle it, have been described in several studies (Baum & Lundtorp, 2001; Boffa & Succurro, 2012; Butler, 1994; Butler & Mao, 1997; Cannas, 2012; Coshall, Charlesworth, & Page, 2015; Espinet, Fluvia, Rigal-I-Torrent, & Salo, 2012; Getz & Nilsson, 2004; Jang, 2004; Koenig-Lewis & Bischoff, 2005; Kulendran & Wong, 2005). For this reason, this introductory chapter is not fully dedicated to defining those seasonality aspects but rather on the context in which this research was developed. Several authors have defined tourism seasonality as the concentration of tourist flows during certain periods of the year (e.g. Allcock, 1994), being considered an inevitable phenomenon that causes a temporary imbalance between supply and demand in a given tourist destination. With regard to the measuring unit of seasonality, Butler (1994) describes tourism seasonality as a temporary imbalance that can be expressed in terms of various elements such as the number of tourist or the spending they incurred, employment, tourist attractions tickets, and the traffic on highways and other forms of transportation. The phenomenon of tourism seasonality affects almost all tourist activities and destinations as a whole. Therefore, the participation and action taken by managers and tourism entrepreneurs to try to minimize its effects is of vital importance. In this sense, there are other definitions of tourism seasonality that reflect better the current realities as the one provided by Lanquar (2001), who describes seasonality as a constant marketing perception of the tourist destination managers, who seek to keep specific programs within certain limits. Similarly, Rosselló Nadal, Riera Font, and Sansó Rosselló (2004) extend the effort for reducing seasonality to both public and private sectors due to the implications it has for employment and investment. 8 Chapter 1. Introduction Commons, J., & Page, S. (2001). Managing Seasonality in Peripheral Tourism Regions: The Case of Northland, New Zealand. In T. Baum & S. Lundtrop (Eds.), Seasonality in Tourism (pp. 153-172). Oxford: Pergamon, Elsevier. Consejería de Turismo, Comercio y Deporte. (2014). Mercados Turísticos en Andalucía - Turismo Británico, 2014. Empresa Pública para la Gestión del Turismo y el Deporte de Andalucía, S.A. - Área de Estadística e Investigación de Mercados). 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American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 47(3), 315-329. Nieto González, J. L., Amate Fortes, I., & Nieto González, F. J. (2000, February). La estacionalidad de la demanda turística en Andalucía y Almería: análisis y comparativa. Paper presented at the Congreso Internacional sobre Turismo y Mediterráneo, Almería. Pegg, S., Patterson, I., & Vila Gariddo, P. (2012). The impact of seasonality on tourism and hospitality operations in the alpine region of New South Wales, Australia. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 31(3), 659-666. Rosselló Nadal, J., Riera Font, A., & Sansó Rosselló, A. (2004). The economic determinants of seasonal patterns. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(3), 697-711. Shorrocks, A. F. (1982). Inequality decomposition by factor components. Econometrica, 50(1), 193-211. Sutcliffe, C. M. S., & Sinclair, M. T. (1980). The measurement of seasonality within the tourist industry: An application to tourist arrivals in Spain. Applied Economics, 12, 429-441. Waitt, G. (2003). Social impacts of the Sydney Olimpics. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(1), 194-215. Wanhill, S. R. C. (1980). Tackling seasonality: A technical note. International Journal of Tourism Management, 1(4), 243-245. 10 Chapter 1. Introduction Witt, S.F., & Moutinho, L. (Eds.). (1995). Tourism Marketing and Management Handbook. Cambridge: Prentice Hall. Yacoumis, J. (1980). Tackling seasonality: The case of Sri Lanka. International Journal of Tourism Management, 1(4), 84-98. 11 Chapter 2 Chapter 2 Cultural tourism as tourist segment for reducing seasonality in a coastal area: the case study of Andalusia Abstract: The present paper analyses the seasonal concentration on the Andalusian coastline, a Spanish Mediterranean coastal destination characterised by its high seasonality in the summer months. The analyses were conducted by separating tourists according to their main travel motivation, and distinguishing sun and sand tourists from cultural and other segments tourists, based on their place of origin and on the coast they visited. The quantitative tools applied included the additive decomposition of the Gini index and the calculation of the relative marginal effects. The proposed methodology serves as a useful tool for tourism managers and administrators interested in reducing seasonality, since it facilitates the identification of tourists segments that can effectively contribute to the reduction of seasonal concentration. Among the main results for the studied area, it was found that given the heterogeneity of the groups of tourists (both domestic and foreign), it was much more effective to separate tourist segments by their main travel motivation. The cultural segment was the most favourable for deseasonalisation, especially within domestic tourists, since with foreigners the same deseasonalising effect was not present in all the coasts analysed. Title: Cultural tourism as tourist segment for reducing seasonality in a coastal area: the case study of Andalusia Authors: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. and Fernández-Morales, A. Journal: Current Issues in Tourism Volume: 18 Number: 8 Pages: 765-784 Year: 2015 DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2013.861810 12 Chapter 2 13 Chapter 2 14 Chapter 2 15 Chapter 2 16 Chapter 2 17 Chapter 2 24 Chapter 2 25 Chapter 2 26 Chapter 2 27 Chapter 2 28 Chapter 2 29 Chapter 2 30 Chapter 2 31 Chapter 2 32 Chapter 2 Supplementary material: 33 Chapter 3 Chapter 3 Understanding the Seasonal Concentration of Tourist Arrivals: The Case of the South of Spain Abstract: The objectives of this chapter are: (i) to present a methodology for analysing seasonal concentration in tourism, designed as a control and monitoring measure which tourism planners and managers may use in destinations with a high seasonal concentration (by estimating the Gini index, applying an additive decomposition over tourism segments and estimating relative marginal effects over the annual indexes of the tourism segments); and (ii) to apply this methodology to the analysis of seasonal concentration in Andalusia over the period 1999–2013 to two tourism data sets, travellers visiting the coastal areas in Andalusia and passengers arriving in Andalusia. Title: Understanding the Seasonal Concentration of Tourist Arrivals: The Case of the South of Spain Authors: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. and Fernández-Morales, A. Book: Destination Competitiveness, the Environment and Sustainability: Challenges and Cases Editorial: CAB International Editors: Kozak, M. and Artal, A. Chapter: 11 Pages: 131-143 Year: 2015 DOI: 10.1079/9781780646978.0131 40 Chapter 3 41 Chapter 3 42 Chapter 3 43 Chapter 3 44 Chapter 3 45 Chapter 3 46 Chapter 3 47 Chapter 4 Chapter 4 Seasonal Inequalities in Visitor Distribution in Argentina’s Tourism Regions Abstract: This paper aims to contribute to the scarce literature on tourism seasonality in Argentina, complementing the quantitative tools previously used for measuring seasonality with the use of the Gini index. There are significant inequalities regarding the seasonal concentration by regions, both in levels and recent evolutions. The strategies against seasonality that are afoot in Argentina are also briefly discussed. This study raises new questions that are presented as future lines of research, such as making a more accurate disaggregation within national and international visitors to find out their impact on the level of overall concentration. Title: Seasonal Inequalities in Visitor Distribution in Argentina’s Tourism Regions Authors: Fernández-Morales, A. and Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. Journal: e-Review of Tourism Research Volume: 12 Number: 1/2 Pages: 115-126 Year: 2015 URL: http://3ws1wk1wkqsk36zmd6ocne81.wpengine.netdnacdn.com/files/2015/08/3.-eRTR_ARN_Vol.12-No1.2_FernándezMorales-and-Cisneros-Martínez.pdf 48 Chapter 4 49 Chapter 4 56 Chapter 4 57 Chapter 4 58 Chapter 4 59 Chapter 4 60 Chapter 4 61 Chapter 5 Chapter 5 Concentración estacional de la demanda hotelera en Argentina `Seasonal concentration of the hotel demand in Argentina´ Abstract: In this paper, the seasonal concentration of hotel demand in Argentina and its tourist regions are analysed. The methodology, which includes the additive decomposition of the Gini index and the calculation of the relative marginal effects, is proposed as a useful tool for both tourism managers and hoteliers interested in reducing seasonal concentration, since it facilitates the identification of the less seasonal travellers. The results of this study indicate that, given the heterogeneity between regions in terms of seasonality, it is necessary, at least, to disaggregate the resident travellers by region of origin and the non-residents by groups of countries of residence. Furthermore, in some regions we should include into the most favourable origins for deseasonalisation, most of which are found within the non-resident ones, the travellers who come from the region itself, which remain unnoticed when the residents total is analysed without disaggregation. Title: Concentración estacional de la demanda hotelera en Argentina. Authors: Cisneros-Martínez, J.D. and Fernández-Morales, A. Journal: Revista de Estudios Regionales Volume: 106 Pages: 197-221 Year: 2016 URL: http://www.revistaestudiosregionales.com/documentos/ articulos/pdf-articulo-2499.pdf 62 Chapter 5 63 Chapter 5 64 Chapter 5 65 Chapter 5 72 Chapter 5 73 Chapter 5 74 Chapter 5 75 Chapter 5 76 Chapter 5 77 Chapter 5 78 Chapter 5 79 Chapter 5 80 Chapter 5 81 Chapter 5 88 Chapter 6 89 Chapter 6 90 Chapter 6 91 Chapter 6 92 Chapter 6 93 Chapter 6 94 Chapter 6 95 Chapter 6 96 Chapter 6 97 Chapter 6 104 Chapter 6 105 Chapter 6 106 Chapter 6 107 Chapter 7. Conclusions Chapter 7 Conclusions This final chapter presents the thesis conclusions by beginning with a brief summary of all the conclusions of the contributions that compose it, followed by an overall conclusion of the results obtained through the applied methodology. In Chapter 2 seasonal concentration in the Andalusian coastline was analysed. The main results obtained show that, using a simple disaggregation by the nationality of tourists in the destination as a whole, international tourists make up the favourable segment for deseasonalisation, as they demonstrate negative relative marginal effects of greater magnitude. This diagnosis is modified significantly using a more comprehensive segmentation, which introduces motivational segments (sun and sand, cultural and other segments). In doing so, international tourists only remain favourable, in terms of their deseasonalising effect, only within the cultural segment for last years analysed; they had a relative marginal effect similar to the domestic-cultural segment. Thus, the importance of making cultural tourism a deseasonalising instrument on the Andalusian coastline. As a supplement, in Chapter 3 seasonal concentration in the Andalusian coastline was analysed by using as a unit of measurement the passengers entering through Andalusian airports. The analysis main results highlighted the potential to reduce seasonality by paying attention to domestic passengers, and by identifying the countries of origin of less seasonal passengers entering through the main Andalusian airports. Based on the results obtained in this chapter, one can conclude that, in recent year, policies adopted to combat seasonality have not been sufficiently effective since the results show a growing trend in the concentration indices of most the coastal areas and airports in Andalusia. In the fourth and fifth chapters, seasonality in Argentina´s touristic regions is analysed. Chapter 4 demonstrates that in each of the regions the policies against seasonality have had different effectiveness, due among other factors, to the volume that domestic tourism has on the overall tourism demand in each region. One of the main conclusions of this chapter is the need to take into account tourism demand by region visited, by the origin of tourists, and by the volume of demand in the design of policies against seasonality in order to achieve a greater level of effectiveness with them. In Chapter 5, it was shown that the diagnosis carried out in the previous chapter was significantly modified by using a more comprehensive segmentation in which domestic and international tourists were classified according to either their region or country of residence. Furthermore, similar to the analysis done in the Andalusian coastline, it was found that seasonal patterns and the consequent degree of seasonal concentration observed in the tourists analysed, significantly differ when studied with disaggregated data. For this reason, it is essential to use an appropriate level of disaggregation in the planning of deseasonalising policies. 108 Chapter 7. Conclusions The seasonal concentration of the United Kingdom and England, were analysed in Chapter 6, showing not a very high level of seasonal concentration in comparison to other countries. As in the destinations analysed in the previous chapters, with the application of the methodology used in this thesis, the less seasonal segments of tourism demand have been identified by using a sufficient level of disaggregation. In this chapter, the combination of the additive decomposition of the Gini with the biblot provides information that can be of great value to those responsible for the marketing of a destination since it can help them identify the demand segments they should be directing the strategies designed to combat seasonality. Again, it appears that the seasonal patterns of different tourist segments that make up the demand differ significantly when studied in a disaggregated way. Thus, we can conclude that the application of the methodology is of great interest for tourism managers in the UK, especially from a regional perspective; it could help them understand the disaggregation and seasonal concentration of each region and their relative marginal effects so they can direct their marketing strategies. The methodology proposed is truly useful since it provides the interesting results, which, have been exposing on the partial conclusions of the chapters included in this thesis. This thesis has investigated how the different destinations analysed have managed seasonality. Furthermore, the policies designed to fight seasonality, along with the strategies undertaken to reduce its effects, have been analysed from a marketing perspective. One can conclude that, based on the results obtained, there is a need to perform a more comprehensive analysis when analysing the seasonal concentration in a given destination by identifying the less seasonal segments in the tourism demand. An adequate level of the disaggregation of tourism demand (as the ones used in this thesis) is needed with which one can provide a better understanding of seasonal concentration in relation to tourists´ country of origin or their main travelling purpose. These types of disaggregations provide relevant information to tourism managers about tourists with a less seasonal behaviour. With this information, the effectiveness of policies against seasonality can be increased since the catchment policies can be directed towards those tourists identified as less seasonal, and consequently, seasonality is reduced. 109 Resumen en español Appendix Resumen en español El estudio de la estacionalidad, tradicionalmente se ha centrado en el análisis de los patrones de la demanda, la descripción de este fenómeno en destinos turísticos, los efectos negativos sobre el empleo y la inversión, y las políticas contra la estacionalidad y sus implicaciones. Sin embargo, en años recientes, algunos trabajos han empezado a centrarse en el planteamiento y propuesta de nuevas técnicas para la medición de la estacionalidad. A la hora de aplicar medidas desestacionalizadoras, a los gestores de destinos turísticos les resulta complicado identificar qué tipo de turistas contribuyen a la desestacionalización, ya que estos turistas potenciales pueden estar pasando desapercibido por no disponer de una metodología que los identifique. Teniendo en cuenta esta deficiencia, en esta tesis se ha querido conseguir un enfoque de medición que proporcione información acerca del tipo de turista objetivo para reducir la concentración estacional en los destinos analizados. Para ello, la metodología que se emplea en esta tesis, que incluye la descomposición aditiva del índice de Gini, proporciona información acerca de la contribución de cada segmento de demanda a la concentración estacional total de un destino. Mediante el empleo de dicha descomposición, el componente estacional puede ser expresado a través de unos efectos relativos marginales que permiten identificar a aquellos turistas que se manifiesten más favorables para reducir la estacionalidad. De manera complementaria, se han estimado los factores estacionales mediante el método multiplicativo que sirven para mejorar el análisis ya que proporcionan los patrones estacionales de los segmentos de demanda analizados. Además, según el destino analizado, se han utilizado clasificaciones complejas atendiendo al origen del turista, su principal motivación de viaje y la región visitada dentro de cada uno de los destinos analizados, las cuales, han permitido discernir con mayor precisión dentro de clasificaciones poco homogéneas. Existen estudios previos en los que se ha utilizado el índice de Gini (sin desagregar) para el análisis de la concentración estacional anual ejercida por la demanda turística en ciertos destinos en los que ciertos patrones de la demanda han pasado desapercibidos. En este sentido, un nivel suficiente de desagregación de la demanda turística puede revelar matices que se pierden con datos agregados. Por este motivo, esta tesis pretende desagregar las concentraciones estacionales mediante la desagregación del índice de Gini, y así conseguir que los gestores de destinos turísticos puedan actuar con mayor precisión en ciertas variables de la demanda mediante políticas de marketing. Con la aplicación de la metodología propuesta en los destinos turísticos analizados, en los que se ha empleado un nivel de desagregación suficiente, se pretende aportar información adicional a los gestores del turismo en cuanto a qué turistas deben dirigir sus políticas de captación, siempre y cuando su objetivo sea reducir la concentración estacional en estos destinos. De hecho, se ha comprobado que los patrones estacionales y el consecuente grado de concentración estacional observado en los turistas analizados difieren significativamente cuando se estudian con datos desagregados, por lo que es de fundamental importancia utilizar como referencia para el planteamiento de las políticas desestacionalizadoras un nivel de desagregación adecuado. 110 Resumen en español Como se ha indicado en el capítulo introductorio, esta tesis ha sido elaborada por compendio de publicaciones científicas en los que se han analizado la concentración estacional de tres destinos y sus regiones. Concretamente, los destinos estudiados en los diferentes capítulos de esta tesis son el litoral de Andalucía, Argentina y el Reino Unido. En el Capítulo 2 se realiza un análisis de la concentración estacional en el litoral andaluz. Para este capítulo, se ha tenido en consideración las particulares características del turismo en este destino. Desde su origen como destino turístico, este destino se ha visto impulsado por el factor climático en la mayor parte del litoral andaluz. De esta forma, el clima puede considerarse la marca del litoral andaluz, un recurso que hace posible el desarrollo de las actividades turísticas y que satisface las necesidades de la demanda, siendo en muchos casos, el principal motivo de desplazamiento. El clima ejerce una influencia muy significativa en la concentración estacional turística y, en consecuencia, en la rentabilidad económica que este destino obtiene del sector turístico. Esto es debido a la especialización del turismo de sol y playa y a la escasa diversificación de otros productos turísticos que no dependan única y exclusivamente del factor clima, como podría ser el turismo cultural. Además, se entiende que una buena previsión y un conocimiento pormenorizado del clima en este destino puede ayudar a adaptar las actividades turísticas al mismo, consiguiéndose reducir los efectos ocasionados por la estacionalidad turística. En este sentido, se hace hincapié en la importancia de la diversificación de productos, ya que en caso de una predicción fallida de las condiciones climáticas en destino, el turista in situ podrá reorientar su estancia al tener más alternativas para realizar otras actividades turísticas no condicionadas por el clima. Tradicionalmente, la demanda exclusiva del turismo de sol y playa se ha concentrado en los meses de verano en este litoral, presentando una marcada estacionalidad por las características climatológicas de este tipo de turismo y por las condiciones laborales en cuanto a vacaciones retribuidas de los turistas. Sin embargo, esta afirmación ha ido perdiendo contundencia en los últimos tiempos, en los que se está consiguiendo una mayor ocupación hotelera en los meses inmediatamente anterior y posterior a los meses tradicionales. Este hecho puede ser explicado por la tendencia de los visitantes actuales a fraccionar sus vacaciones, y también por el hecho de querer prescindir del colapso producido en los principales meses de verano en los que se produce una sobrecarga turística con la consecuente pérdida de calidad ofrecida por parte de los empresarios del turismo. La predominancia del turismo de sol y playa es la causante de la persistencia de la estacionalidad en este destino. Sin embargo, existe una evolución ascendente y correctora de este rasgo gracias a la apuesta por la incorporación de otros productos turísticos complementarios. El turismo cultural suele ser considerado como una herramienta desestacionalizadora, pero sin embargo, en algunos planes de gestión de Andalucía no lo consideran económicamente rentable cuando se desarrolla en el ámbito litoral. Por ello, en estos planes se suele optar por otro tipo de productos turísticos emergentes como el de salud y belleza o el de golf para diversificar la oferta en este litoral. Si en el litoral de Andalucía, el turismo cultural no es rentable en términos económicos, en este capítulo se ha investigado su rentabilidad en cuanto a la reducción de la estacionalidad. Andalucía se caracteriza por poseer una inmensa variedad y diversidad de recursos culturales que constituyen un patrimonio de gran potencialidad turística. A nivel global, el turismo cultural, se está considerando cada vez más como un producto turístico 111 Resumen en español emergente y desestacionalizador debido tanto a las nuevas motivaciones de los turistas que buscan la diferencia y la diversidad que aumentan su interés por los elementos culturales como al fraccionamiento de las vacaciones, que se traducen en el incremento de viajes de corta duración. Estos factores propician el desarrollo del turismo cultural. Esta situación global puede ser extrapolada a Andalucía, gracias al abundante y diverso patrimonio cultural del que dispone esta región, tanto material como inmaterial. Con el objetivo de comprobar si el turismo cultural es apropiado para desestacionalizar el litoral de Andalucía, se ha procedido a la identificación del segmento cultural. Para ello, la demanda turística ha sido desagregada en diferentes segmentos turísticos: según motivo principal del viaje, que distingue al turista de sol y playa del cultural y de otros segmentos; según procedencia del turista, que diferencia a los turistas residentes en España y de los residentes en el extranjero; y según la costa visitada: Costa de la Luz de Huelva, Costa de la Luz de Cádiz, Costa del Sol, Costa Tropical and Costa de Almería. La unidad de medida de la demanda turística utilizada en este capítulo es el número de viajeros alojados en establecimientos hoteleros de este litoral debido a la predominancia del hotel como el tipo de alojamiento más demandado por los turistas en este destino. En general, todas las costas del litoral andaluz deben hacer frente a los efectos de la estacionalidad. Las administraciones locales y autonómicas, así como los empresarios del turismo, actualmente están afrontando este problema con la aplicación de medidas correctoras que reduzcan la concentración estacional con la búsqueda de nuevas fórmulas de diversificación de productos. Esto puede ser corroborado por las recientes coordinaciones entre las administraciones públicas y el sector privado para afrontar este problema. Para que esta coordinación sea eficiente, se deben tener a disposición los conocimientos y herramientas adecuadas para la medición de la estacionalidad. Los resultados obtenidos en este capítulo revelan la importancia de emplear un nivel de desagregación adecuado y suficiente para esta materia. La inclusión de una segmentación por motivo de la visita y la desagregación por origen del turista y por costas analizadas desvela importantes características que pueden quedar enmascaradas cuando se estudia la información agregada para el destino en su conjunto. Los instrumentos de planificación que contienen medidas orientadas a reducir la estacionalidad suelen establecerse en España en niveles territoriales superiores, (nacional o regional), quedando los gestores turísticos locales limitados a tomar decisiones que diversifiquen la actividad turística en sus territorios. Los más significativos que se encontraban vigentes cuando este estudio fue realizado fueron: el Plan del Turismo Español Horizonte 2020 - Plan de Turismo Español 2008-2012, de nivel nacional y el Plan General de Turismo Sostenible de Andalucía 2008-2011, el Plan Director de Marketing de Andalucía 2009-2011 y el Plan de Acción de Playas, Playas de Andalucía 2007-2011 de nivel regional. En todos ellos se contempla el reto de reducir la estacionalidad en los destinos litorales y proponen diversas medidas de carácter genérico. Entre las medidas propuestas se pueden citar los proyectos “playas abiertas todo el año”, “fin de semanas y puentes” o “navidades en Andalucía”, los cuales, tienen el objetivo de atraer mediante ofertas y propuestas específicas la demanda en temporada baja, y diversas acciones de comunicación directa y marketing para promocionar el destino en su conjunto en temporada media y baja. También se contempla como objetivo la diversificación del producto turístico sol y playa para aumentar la competitividad del sector al mismo tiempo que se contribuye a la reducción de la estacionalidad, en la línea de la variación del product mix que proponen diversos autores en la literatura. 112 Resumen en español En los instrumentos de planificación turística de Andalucía, se consideran a los turistas extranjeros menos estacionales que los nacionales, afirmación que se ratifica con los resultados obtenidos en este capítulo. No obstante, con la metodología empleada, se observa que aunque todos los turistas extranjeros son considerados favorables para reducir la estacionalidad, no lo son en la misma magnitud según la tipología de los turistas. Por su parte, dentro del grupo de los turistas nacionales, habitualmente considerados no favorables para el mencionado objetivo, se encuentra que el segmento de nacionales culturales que presentan características que los convierten en favorables para reducir la estacionalidad. No obstante, los instrumentos de planificación mencionados no emplean herramientas cuantitativas con suficiente grado de desagregación. En este sentido, le metodología empleada en esta tesis ha sido de gran utilidad. Con el análisis de la evolución de los efectos relativos marginales a lo largo del período observado y, sobre todo, del último año analizado, en este caso el año 2011, podrían ajustarse las políticas turísticas orientadas a paliar la concentración estacional con enfoques mucho más especializados. Entre los principales resultados obtenidos, se ha constatado que dada la heterogeneidad de los grupos de turistas nacionales e internacionales, es mucho más efectivo concentrarse, dentro de cada grupo, en los segmentos especificados en este capítulo. Se ha detectado que el segmento cultural es el preferente para desestacionalizar, especialmente los turistas nacionales. En cambio, los turistas extranjeros culturales no presentan el mismo impacto desestacionalizador en todas las costas del litoral de Andalucía, siendo poco relevante en dos de ellas. En general se ha verificado que la concentración estacional ha experimentado una evolución ascendente en los 13 años estudiados y en todas las costas que componen el litoral andaluz, aunque más notable en dos de ellas (Costa de la Luz de Huelva y Costa de la Luz de Cádiz), lo que evidencia que no se han implementado medidas suficientes o las implementadas no han sido efectivas para reducir la concentración estacional en ninguna de ellas. Asimismo, se ha comprobado que los patrones estacionales y el consecuente grado de concentración estacional observado en los segmentos analizados difieren significativamente cuando se estudian desagregadamente. De hecho, se ha verificado que si bien usando una desagregación simple de los turistas por nacionalidad en el destino en su totalidad, los turista extranjeros son los más favorables para desestacionalizar ya que muestran los efectos relativos marginales negativos de mayor magnitud; este diagnóstico se modifica notablemente empleando una segmentación más completa que introduzca los segmentos sol y playa, cultural y otros. Así, los turistas extranjeros sólo se mantienen como favorables en cuanto a su efecto desestacionalizador dentro del segmento cultural en los últimos años, con un efecto relativo marginal similar al de los turistas nacionales culturales. De esta manera, se constata la importancia de la apuesta por el turismo cultural como instrumento desestacionalizador en el litoral de Andalucía. Esta afirmación sobre el impacto en la reducción de la estacionalidad del turismo cultural carecía de estudios cuantitativos rigurosos que la ratificasen en este litoral. En líneas generales, los turistas culturales han sido identificados como los más favorables para desestacionalizar el litoral andaluz, y por ello, se propone la apuesta por el turismo cultural para descongestionar este litoral. Los turistas culturales en muchas ocasiones buscan la complementariedad al turismo de sol y playa con actividades que no suelen precisar de un recorrido exhaustivo de los monumentos, sino más bien quieren experimentar el contacto con la población local, su gastronomía, etc. Dentro del turismo cultural se enmarca el turismo de ciudades históricas, que tradicionalmente ha 113 Resumen en español ido a contracorriente del turismo de sol playa, y han hecho uso del mismo aquellos turistas que huyen de las aglomeraciones de los destinos litorales, prefiriendo visitar una ciudad histórica en un entorno de tranquilidad. La realidad actual es otra, ya que los turistas actuales de sol y playa exigen cada vez más actividades culturales complementarias que se encuadren dentro de su estancia. Por ello, sería conveniente que como en el caso de la ciudad de Málaga, el resto de ciudades históricas del litoral andaluz que se encuadren cercanas al litoral como son Huelva, Cádiz y Almería propusieran un producto turístico complementario en el que parte del recorrido de las vacaciones añadan una visita al centro histórico de la ciudad. Las medidas frente a la estacionalidad propuestas en los diversos instrumentos de planificación aplicables al litoral andaluz son muy diversas y en general tratan de apoyar mediante actuaciones de marketing o de apoyo directo a segmentos específicos que contribuyan a la desestacionalización. No obstante, estos planes no incluyen el desarrollo de instrumentos de análisis que permitan determinar con suficiente detalle cuáles son esos segmentos y la magnitud relativa de su efecto desestacionalizador. Por ello, la propuesta metodológica de este trabajo, tanto desde el punto de vista del cálculo de los efectos relativos marginales como medida cuantitativa del efecto desestacionalizador, como la triple desagregación por zona, nacionalidad y segmento, pueden constituir una valiosa ayuda para el diseño y ejecución de los planes de gestión frente a la estacionalidad en el litoral andaluz. Finalmente, hay que señalar que en este capítulo, se ha incidido especialmente en la contribución específica de la capacidad desestacionalizadora del turismo cultural. No obstante, ha de tenerse en cuenta que dentro de la agrupación de “otros segmentos” se incluyen numerosas motivaciones de muy diversa índole, de las cuales se podrían obtener con nuevas desagregaciones, otros segmentos turísticos más específicos que pudiesen contribuir a reducir la estacionalidad ya que como han ofrecido los resultados del presente análisis, dicha agrupación se considera algo favorable para reducir la estacionalidad en el litoral de Andalucía. De los resultados obtenidos aquí, se realiza una actualización de los mismos en el Capítulo 3, hasta el año 2013, utilizando de nuevo a los viajeros alojados en establecimientos hoteleros como unidad de medida. De los resultados de esta actualización, se desprende que las políticas contra la estacionalidad no han sido muy efectivas en los años recientes en el litoral de Andalucía. Los viajeros nacionales se muestran más estacionales que los internacionales, y por ello, las políticas de captación deberían ir dirigidas al segmento internacional siempre y cuando el objetivo sea reducir la concentración estacional. De manera complementaria, para analizar la concentración estacional del litoral de Andalucía y con el fin de establecer comparaciones, se utiliza como unidad a los pasajeros entrados por aeropuertos andaluces. En este caso, se ha realizado una segmentación de pasajeros por aeropuertos y según procedencia nacional o internacional. Esta decisión se ha tomado debido a que el 81% de los turistas internacionales que visitan el litoral andaluz utilizan el avión como medio de transporte. Aunque solo el 16% de los turistas nacionales utilizan este medio de transporte, se ha mantenido el segmento nacional en el análisis para mantener consistencia en la descomposición aplicada, y para analizar si este segmento tiene características estacionales específicas. Los índices de Gini estimados correspondientes a los pasajeros internacionales se encuentran dentro del mismo rango que los estimados en el capítulo anterior en el que se utilizó al viajero alojado en hoteles como unidad de medida. Por el contrario, los pasajeros nacionales muestran un nivel extremadamente bajo de concentración