Econometric Models of Latin America : studies of the period 1984-2000

SERIES OF E-BOOKS “ECONOMIC STUDIES” ASSOCIATION HISPALINK GALICIA WITH COOPERATION OF THE EURO-AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STUDIES EE11 https://www.usc.gal/economet/ebooks.htm https://www.usc/gal/economet/eaat.htm 2023 Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 1 Coordinator: María-Carmen Guisan. Professor of Econometrics, Editor of the series EE. Autors institution: Faculty of Economics of the University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain) and Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies. Web of the research team: https://www.usc.gal/economet/eaat.htm Web of the coordinator: https://www.usc.gal/economet/guisan2.htm Book EE11 of the Series “Estudios Económicos/Economic Studies” of the Association Hispalink Galicia (AHG) [email protected] With the collaboration of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies Available at https://www.usc.gal/economet/ebooks.htm and at Ideas-Repec ISSN 2952-0738 Electronic edition, year 2023: https://www.usc.gal/economet/ahg11.htm Webmaster: Pilar Exposito. Lecturer of Econometrics, USC Faculty de Economics. University of Santiago de Compostela (USC), Spain. Cover design: Mabel Aguayo Blogs of World Development: https://euroamericanassociation.blogspot.com (English) https://economiaydesarrollointernacional.blogspot.com (Spanish) Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 2 EDUCATION AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, 1960-2000: ECONOMIC STUDIES OF OECD COUNTRIES, LATIN AMERICA, EUROPE, AFRICA AND ASIA GUISAN, María-Carmen AGUAYO, Eva EXPOSITO, Pilar Abstract: This book, EE11, presents a summary of several international studies published by the authors on international development for the period 1960-2000.. EE11 includes 5 chapters: 1) Evolution of Gross Domestic Product and Population in the World for the 20th century and indicators of Education and Production per capita by sector in 21 areas of America, Europe, Eurasia, Africa, Asia and Pacific. in years 1980 and 1999. The chapter slso includes a summary of several international models of World development estimated by our research team for the period 1960-2000. 2) International panel models f OECD countries for the 20th century: Production, Employment, Wage and Consumption. 3) Production by sector in OECD countries: Agriculture, Industry, Building and Services. 4) Studies related with economic development of Latin American countries (Education, Trade and Production per capita) for the period 1960-2000. The analyzes highlight the positive impact of Education on international development. 5) A comparison of regional development in Europe and the United States for 1960-2000. This book is scheduled to be followed by another book, EE12, with contents of our research on international development for the period 2001-2023 JEL codes: C51, O5, O51, O52, O57 Keywords: Growth and Development, OECD countries in the 20th century, European Regions, Production and Employment by Sector, Latin America in the 20th century, Africa, Asia, Studies of the period 1960-2000. * Authors are teachers and researchers of Econometrics at the Facultry of Economics and Business Administration of the University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain. E- mail: mcar[email protected] Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 3 INDEX Prologue Chapter 1. World Development in the 20th century: Evolution and Econometric Models, Guisan, Maria-Carmen 1.1. World development, 1900-2000: GDP, Population and GDP per capita 1.2. Education and Production by sector in 21 Areas of the World, 1980-1999 1.3. World models of Education and Development, 1960-2000 1.4. Other international models 1960-2000: Europe, America, Africa and Asia 1.5. Bibliography Chapter 2. Development in the OECD, 1960-2000: Econometric Models and Indicators. Guisan, Maria-Carmen 2.1. Evolution of OECD Countries 1900-1997: Production and Employment 2.2. International Models of OECD countries: Pioneer studies until year 1985 2.3. Wages, Employment and GDP in the OECD, 1960-2000 2.4. Consumption and Production in the OECD, 1960-2000 2.5. Bibliography Chapter 3. Production by sector in OECD Countries, 1960-2000. Guisan, Maria- Carmen; Exposito, Pilar. 3.1. Production by sector in 23 OECD countries 1999 3.2. Agriculture in 4 OECD countries, 1965-1999 3.3. Industry in 4 OECD countries, 1960-2000 3.4. Building and Services in 4 OECD countries, 1965-1999 3.5. Bibliography Chapter 4. Econometric models of Latin America. Studies of the period 1984- 2000. Guisan, Maria-Carmen; Aguayo, Eva. 4.1. Production and Trade in Latin America: 1979-1995 4.2. Studies by Neira et al(1997,1998), on Education in Latin America 4.3. Models by Guisan and Aguayo (2002,2005) on America, 1980-2000 4.4. Studies on Regional Development of Latin America, 1990-2000 4.5. Bibliography Chapter 5. A Comparison of Regional Development in the European Union and the United States, 1960-2000, Maria-Carmen Guisan 5.1. Interregional models of European and OECD countries, 1960-2000 5.2. Population evolution in EU5 and Large US Regions. 1960-2000 5.3. Regional development in EU5 and the United States,1960-2000 5.4. Bibliography Website: https://www.usc.gal/economet/ahg11.htm Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 4 Prologue EE11 is a book of the Series EE, published by the AHG with the cooperation of the Euro-American Association of Economic Development Studies (EAAEDS). It includes references to econometric studies, published by our research team for 1975-2005, with samples of the period 1960-2000. Chapter 1 analyses the evolution of World Production, Population and Production per capita for the 20th century and indicators of Education and Production by sector in 21 areas of the World in years 1980 and 1999. It also cites several international models, published by our research team, relating Education and Development for the second half of that century. Chapter 2 presents the estimation of several equation for Gross Domestic Product per capita, real Wage and Employment with a panel of 6 OECD countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and USA) for the period 1960- 2000, and the analysis of causality between Consumption and Production per capita, with a sample of 625 observatios of 25 OECD countries in 25 years. Chapter 3 includes references to studies of production and employment by sector in OECD countries: Agriculture, Industry, Building and Services. Chapter 4 analyzes the results of several studies of Education and Development in Latin American countries: model by Guisan(1984), presented at the EADI Conference at Madrid, the study by Guisan, Aguayo and Neira(1997), at the EADI Conference at Paris, the model by Guisand et al(1997) on Centroamerica, and the studies by Neira et al(1997) and (1998). We also cite 3 studies on regional development in Latin American countries. Chapter 5 includes contents related with regional development in Europe and the USA for the period 1960-2000. Since year 2001 we have published many electronic and printed journals, books, reports and documents, on international development, which are available at Ideas.Repec and at: https://www.usc.gal/economet/eaat.htm EE12 is a book scheduled to appear in year 2023 including international studies, of econometric models of develelopment, published by our research team with samples of the period 2001-2023. Maria-Carmen Guisan Professor of Econometrics at the USC (Spain) for 1987-2017 and Honorary Professor for 2017-2022 Santiago de Compostela. 15h May of 2023. https://www.usc.gal/economet/ahg.htm https://www.usc.gal/economet/guisan2.htm Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 75 CHAPTER 4 ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF LATIN AMERICA: STUDIES OF THE PERIOD 1984-2004 GUISAN, Maria-Carmen * AGUAYO, Eva In this chapter we include references to several studies, on economic Latin America, published by our research team, for the period 1984-2004, related with development in the last decades of the 20th century. Other studies on Latin America in the 21st century has been includes in Guisan(2020), EcoDev 123, articles in AEID,, and in other studies. The book EE12, by Guisan(2023 b) is scheduled to include a survey in this regard. 4.1. Production and Trade in Latin America: 1979-1995. Section 4.1 includes references to two models: the study by Guisan(1984) on Trade and Development in 17 Latin American countries in year 1979, and the study by Guisan, Cis and Neira (1999) Trade in Central America, 1980- 1995 Guisan(1984): Trade constraints to development in Latin America in year 1979. EADI84. The study by Guisan(1984), presented to the Congress EADI 1984, held in Madrid, analyzes the challenges of Latin American countries to increase its capacity to imports goods necessary for the formation of stock of capital and intermediate goods. The author published an article on this topic in the Scandinavian Journal of Development Altrnatives in year 1985. Figure 4.1. EADI Congress, 1984 4th Congress, Madrid (Spain),1984 External Trade Constraints to Development in Latin America and the Future of its economic relations with Europe Maria-Carmen Guisan, USC (Spain) ----- * Maria-Carmen Guisan and Eva Aguayo. Econometrics. Faculty of Economics, Santiago de Compostela, (Spain), [email protected], ev[email protected] Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 76 The following tables show the values of GDP (Q), Raw Material (RM), Imports of Goods (IMPG, Imports of Intermediate Inputs IMPII=IMG- Imports of capital goods), Population and values per capita of Q (QH), RM (RMH), IMPG (MGH), IMPII (MIIH), and the Imports per capita of Capital goods (MCGH) in year 1979. Table 4.1. Presents total values of Q, RM, IMPII, IMPG and Population in year 1979. Table 4.1. Production, Raw Materials, Imports of Intermediate Inputs (IMPII), Imports of Goods (IMPG) and Population of 17 Latin American countries in 1979 Country Q RM IMPII IMPG Pop Argentina 53.00 7.95 5.18 6.94 26.73 Bolivia 4.98 1.44 0.65 1.01 5.42 Brasil 204.52 24.54 13.77 18.56 118.65 Chile 17.50 2.61 3.37 4.22 10.92 Colombia 25.80 7.32 1.93 3.36 26.36 Costa Rica 3.99 0.91 1.08 1.41 2.19 Dominican R 5.50 1.31 0.92 1.31 5.28 Ecuador 9.17 2.92 0.96 1.95 8.15 El Salvador 3.50 1.03 0.77 1.02 4.66 Honduras 2.17 0.68 0.53 0.83 3.56 Mexico 119.85 19.18 7.88 12.08 69.38 Nicaragua 2.50 0.70 0.48 0.60 2.64 Panama 2.60 0.57 1.01 1.19 1.92 Paraguay 3.30 1.11 0.32 0.52 2.97 Peru 13.62 3.30 1.72 2.19 17.29 Uruguay 6.95 0.86 1.03 1.21 2.88 Venezuela 48.97 12.24 6.19 10.67 13.55 Total 527.92 88.67 47.79 69.07 322.55 Source: Elaborated by the author from several sources: Banco de Bilbao(1991), The Economist (1981) and UN(1980). Notes: Population in million people. Columns (1) to (4) in Billion (thousand million) Dollars. Columns (6) to (10) in Dollars per capita. Brazil and Mexico are the countries with the highest values of total Production (Q), production of Raw Materials (RM) and Imports of Intermediate Inputs (IMPII) in year 1979. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 77 Table 4.2. presents the values per capita of Production, Raw Materials, Imports of Intermediate Inputs, Imports of Capital Goods and Total Imports of Goods. We use as indicator of Intemediate Inputs the difference between Imports of Goods and Imports of Capital Goods. Table 4.2. Production (Q), Raw Matrials (RM), Imports of Intermediate Inputs MIIH, Capital Groods (MCGH) and Total Goods (MGH) (Dollars per capita, at curret prices, in year1979) Country QH RMH MIIH MCGH MGH Argentina 1983 297 194 66 260 Bolivia 919 266 120 66 186 Brasil 1724 207 116 40 156 Chile 1603 239 309 78 386 Colombia 979 278 73 54 127 Costa Rica 1822 416 493 151 644 Dominican R 1042 248 174 74 248 Ecuador 1125 358 118 121 239 El Salvador 751 221 165 54 219 Honduras 610 191 149 84 233 Mexico 1727 276 114 61 174 Nicaragua 947 265 182 45 227 Panama 1354 297 526 94 620 Paraguay 1111 374 108 67 175 Peru 788 191 99 27 127 Uruguay 2413 299 358 63 420 Venezuela 3614 903 457 331 787 Total 1637 275 148 66 214 Source: Elaborated by the author from several sources: Banco de Bilbao(1991), The Economist (1981) and UN(1980). Notes: Data in Dollars per capita. The highest values of Production per capita (QH) corresponded to Venezuela (3614), followed by Uruguay (2413), Argentina (1983) and Costa Rica (1822). The highest velues of Raw Materials production per capita, corresponed to Venezuela (903), followed by Costa Rica (416) The highest values of Imports per capita were as follows: Intemediate Inputs (MIIH) higher than 300: Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Uruguay and Venezuela. Capital Goods (MCGH): Venezuela, Costa Rica and Ecuador. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 78 To reach a relevant increase of Production per capita, without disequilibrium in the commercial balance, it is necessary to increase industrialization. The increase of industry generally supposes an increase of domestic production of intermediate inputs for Services and other sectors, and an increase the capacity to export and thus of the capacity to import other intermediate inputs useful for economic development The equation of intermediate inputs for 17 Latin American countries, estimated with data of year 1979 was: ^ Q = -9.9061 + 2.884 RM + 9.1050 IMPII; R2 = 0.9596 (2.74) (1.90) (3.02) where the terms between brackets are the correspondign t-statistics. The equation shows a positive impact of domestic production of raw materials and the capacity to import intermediate goods, on the increase of real GDP.The goal to double the value of real GDP of this group of 17 Latin American countries, imply a great increase of RM and also a great increase of the capacity to Import not only intermediate inputs (IMPII) but also machinery and equipment necessary to increase the stock of capital necessary for the production function. A challenge of Latin American countries, in order to sustainable development, is to increase RMH and the capacity to Export per capita, allowing and increase of the values of MHII and MHCG required for development without a strong disequilibrium in the current account balance. With an external debt of 340 Billion (thousand million) Dollars in year 1983, the future of economic development in Latin America depended on international cooperation to conciliate economic development and a more balanced external trade evolution. In Guisan(1997), EcoDev 18, we analyze the positive correlation between Education Expenditure per capita (EDUH) and Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPH), in 20 geographical areas of the World in year 1994. The lowest value of EDUH were below 100 Dollars per capita in several areas de Africa and Asia, and the higest values were higher than 1000 Dollars. The results for American areas were: North America (including USA, Canada and Mexico) 1157, Central America 104 Andean America (without Venezuela) 137, Venezuela and Guyanas 416, South Cone 259. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 85 In year 1990 12 countries of table 4.5 presented illiterate rates higher than 20% and 5 of them even higher than 40%. International cooperation to foster the average years of schooling in many Latin American countries and to diminish high illiterate rates is very important and we sugges an increase of that cooperation. We consider important for Latin America in year 1997 to increase the educational level of population given the great positive impact of education on moderation of excessively high fertility rates and on the increase of investment per capita, production per capita, poverty diminution and improvement of quality of life. With data of the 25 American countries of table 4.5, from Barro and Lee(1991) and (1996), we have calculate correlation coefficients of the Fertility Rate (number of children per woman in her life) with the indicators of education PS2 (percentage of people with upper secondary level) and the percentage of Illiterate Female Population and found the following a positive correlation between Fertility and Illiterate population and a negative correlation between Fertiliby and Upper secondary education. Table 4.6. Correlation coefficients between Fertility rate (FER) and Education in America Year 1960: FER and Illiterate female population = 0,62 FER and Upper secondary level = -0,61 Year 1990: FER and Illiterate female population = 0,81 FER and Upper secondary level = - 0,79 Source: Neira, Aguayo and Guisan(1999). Usually, higher levels of education contribute to moderate excessive fertility rates and to increase savings per capita and investment per capita, with positive impact on industrial production and economic development. The estimated econometric models also showed those effects on Fertility: negative of the percentage of upper secondary education (PS2) and positive of the percentage of illiterate female population. The study suggests to increase European cooperation for development with Latin America. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 86 4.3. Models by Guisan and Aguayo (2002,2005) on America, 1980-2000 Guisan and Aguayo (2002) Education and Development in America, 1999 In that study, published in AEID, we have found that countries with high educational level usually had moderate fertility rates and relatively high savings and investment per capita, increasing production per capita in Industry and other sectors. Countries with a high level of industrial productionr may foster the development of Services without big deficits in the trade balance. Table 4.7 includes several indicators of education and development of American countries in year 1999. Table 4.7. Education indicators and Value-Added per capita in 1999 (Dollars) Education Value-Added per capita in year 1999 Country eduh tyr99 Agriculture Industry &B Services Total Argentina 294 8.49 757 4035 7818 12609 Bolivia 68 5.54 375 774 1349 2498 Brazil 259 4.56 661 2129 4552 7342 Canada 1620 11.43 781 8328 16916 26025 Chile 245 7.89 754 3108 5557 9419 Colombia 209 5.01 851 1458 3767 6075 Costa Rica 265 6.01 933 1466 4266 6665 Dominican R 64 5.17 616 1959 3023 5598 Ecuador 131 6.52 366 1006 1676 3048 El Salvador 40 4.50 480 1222 2662 4365 Guatemala 56 3.12 862 712 2173 3746 Haiti 13 2.67 408 272 680 1361 Honduras 78 4.08 432 720 1248 2401 Jamaica 184 5.22 262 1079 1929 3269 Mexico 423 6.73 417 2251 5670 8338 Nicaragua 72 4.42 623 503 1270 2397 Panama 340 7.90 489 1101 4527 6118 Paraguay 99 5.74 1217 1030 2433 4680 Peru 55 7.33 422 2003 2847 5272 United States 1371 12.25 638 8297 22977 31912 Uruguay 192 7.25 804 2592 5541 8937 Venezuela, RB 418 5.61 288 1384 4094 5757 Note: Eduh in Dollars per capita. Tyr99, average years of school attendance of adult population in 1999. Source: Elaborated by Guisan and Aguayo (2002) from several statistical sources (Barro and Lee, World Bank, Cordelier and Didiot(1996), among other ones). World Bank data for Industry includes Building. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 87 We may notice low values of the indicators of Education in many Latin American and Caribbean countries, in comparison with the United States and Canada. Among Latin American countries, the highest values of the indicator Tyr99 corresponded to Argentina (8.49), Panama (7.90), Chile (7.89), Peru (7.33), Uruguay (7.25) and Mexico (6.73). The highest values of Services per capita of Latin American countries, with more than 5000 Dollars in year 1999, corresponded to Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay. Countries with low values of the indicators of Education, usually have low values of real value-added of industry per capita and, as a consequence, also a low value of value-added of services per capita. Production in Services depends on Manufacturing and Energy and also depends on Tourism, Transport activities and some special features for development of this sector. Table 4.8 shows the evolution of real Gross Domestic Product per capita in the 8 more populated countries of Latin America and Cuba. Table 4.8. Real Production per capita in 9 Latin American countries (Dollars per inhabitant and year at 2017 Prices and Parities) Source: Elaborated from World Bank Statistics In year 1950 the 3 most outstanding positions corresponded to Argentina, Venezuela and Cuba. In year 2000 the top positions corresponded to Venezuela, Argentina and Mexico. Mexico experienced a high increasefor 1950-1980, as pointed out by Moreno-Brid and Sanchez(2022), and most moderate for 1980-2000. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Argentina 10407 11602 15238 17205 13590 18525 Brazil 3367 4703 6156 10470 9918 11529 Chile 5904 6675 8178 8865 9891 15416 Colombia 3879 4499 5574 7684 8687 9138 Cuba 6764 6222 5932 5344 5883 4869 Mexico 5680 8226 11160 15696 15181 17943 Peru 3898 5207 6558 7243 5090 6376 Venezuela 15029 19428 21494 20421 16743 19133 Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 88 The highest increases corresponed to Mexico, with more tha 12000 Dollars, Chile with more than 9000 Dollars, and Argentina and Brazil, with more than 8000 Dollars. Colombia experiences an increase of more than 5000 and Peru an increase of more tha 2000, but Cuba experienced a decrease. In Guisan(2023 a), in AEID, it is analyzed the evolution of these 8 Latin American countries for the period 1950-2022. The article highlights the importance of Education and Industry to foster the increase of real income per capita in Latin American countries. It also founds the importance of political stability and economic freedom to foster sustainable development. Countries with political instability and/or loss of economic freedom may usually suffer great damages in their development. Model by Guisan and Aguayo(2005): American countries 1980-2002 The study shows the moderation of the rates of Population growth. The Educational level of population has contributed to this moderation. Graph 4.1. Annual rates of population growth in America, 1950-2000 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 U S A a n d C a n a d a L a t i n A m e r i c a Source: Elaborated by Guisan and Aguayo(2005) from World Bank statistics Moderation in Population growth has contributed to increase the capacity of savings and investments per capita, but politicas instability and/or lack of economic freedom have restricted the incentives to investment in industry in many countries. The following table shows the evolution of real value-added of Manufacturing per capita in the 8 most populated countries of Latin America. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 89 Table 4.9. Real Value Added of Manufacturing, 1980-2002 (dollars per inhabitant at 1995 prices and Exchange Rates) Country 1980 2002 Ratio Argentina 1561 1055 0.68 Brazil 1144 874 0.76 Chile 526 766 1.46 Colombia 402 311 0.77 Mexico 618 754 1.22 Panama 248 245 0.99 Peru 429 343 0.80 Venezuela1 527 495 0.94 Source: Elaboration by Guisan and Aguayo(2005) from World Bank statistics. Notes: For Nicaragua and Venezuela in 2002 data are own estimations, based on the evolution during the period 1990-99 analysed by Guisan and Aguayo(2002). Last column is the ratio between figures for year 2002 and 1980. The highest percentages of increase of real value-added of Manufacturing per capita, among the 8 Latin American countries of tabl 4.9, correspond to Chile (46%) and Mexico (22%). In the other cases there was a diminution for the period 1980-2002. Although the moderation in Population growth might have led to an increase of investment on manufacturing per capita, there are other factors that have restricted the increase of industrial production: unsecurity of investment in some cases, political instability and restrictions to economic freedom or other causes. Other latin American countries that have experienced an increase of industrialization were in the period 1980-2002 were: Costa Rica (28%). Dominican Republic (70%), El Salvador (16%), and Honduras (12%) The highest levels of the Manufacturing value-added per capita in Latin America, in year 2002, corresponded to Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Costa Rica, Chile and Mexico. The authors estimated a cross-section model of 20 American countries including not only Latin American countries but also Canada and the United States in year 2002, where QNMH (real value added of Non Manufacturing per capita) dependes on its lagged value in year 1990 and the increase of QMH (real value added of Manufacturing per capita) for the period 1990-2002. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 90 The equation includes 2 dummy variables for special cases: D4 for Chile, with an additional positive increase of 1181 Dollars per capita, and D20 for Venezuela) with an additional negative effec of 884 Dollars per capita. The estimated equation was: qnmh02 = 1.2323 qnmh90 + 0.8091 (qmh02-qmh90) +Effects of D4 and D20 (58.4) (2.32) The goodness of fit was high with R-square close to unity (0.9854) and a percentage of the Standard Error on the mean of the dependent variable of 8%. The t de Student statistics, between brackets, indicate that the coefficients are significantly different fron zero. The average effect of an increase of one unity in QMH (Manufacturing real value-added per capita) was important, with a positive effect of 0.8091 on Non-Manufacturing real value added per capita. The coefficient of the lagged value of qnmh was higher than unity (1.2323) indicating that other factors, like tourism and transport activities, have also contributed to increase QNMH for the period 1990-2002. Graph 4.2 show the good relationship between actual values of QNMH in year 2002 and the values estimated by the model (YF). Source: Guisan and Aguayo(2005). -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 02000 4000 6000 YF QNMH02 QNMH02 vs. YF Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 91 4.4. Studies on Regional Development of Latin America, 1990-2000 Study by Guisan and Martinez (2004): Argentina, Brazil and Chile We have published some studies including regional econometric studies of Latin American countries for the last decade of the 20th century, as those included in Guisan and Martinez(2004) for regions of 3 South American countries of (Argentina, Brazil and Chile). The estimated equation, with a panel of 20 regions for the period 1991- 2001, and data of PH and SKH in Dollars at constant prices, was: ^ Log (PH) = 0.1052*log(PS2(-1)) + 0.8603 log (SKH) + 0.2413 log(LTH) - 0.0138 Dummy; R square= 0.9911; %SE on Mean=0.61% where log means Neperian logarithm. PH is production per capita, SKH is PS” is the indicator of Education (percentage of adult Population with upper secondary education) Stock of Physical Capital per capita, LTH is rate of Total Employment per 1000 inhabitants. and Dummy is a variable included to have into account of macroeconomic crisis of Argentina and Brazil. The coefficients where positive, with the exception of the Dummy of economic crisis. The coefficients of SKH and LHT where significant, but the coefficient of the log(PS2) was not significant, likely due to a high degree of multicollinearity with log(SKH). The impact of Education, as we have indicate, has a positive impact on SKH, and thus there are two effects of Education of Development in this equation: an indirect effect on the increase of SKH, and a direct effect on the Ecuation of PH. Study by Alvarez and Aguayo( (2003): Mexico 1994-2001 Alvarez and Aguayo(2003) estimated a panel modelo of 32 Mexican regions for the period 1994-2001, with data in Mexican Pesos at constant prices, the related Production per capita of Private Services, with the following explanatory variables: Regional Production per capita of Manufacturing Regional Production per capita of Public Services Foregin Tourism: rate of arrivals per 1000 inhabitants of the region. All the coefficients where positive and significant and the goodness of fit was high. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 92 Study by Guisan and Cardim-Barata(2004): Brazil Guisan and Cardim-Barata(2003) and (2004), EcoDev73 published a quantitative analyzis of economic development in Brazil by the end of the 20th century. In the Annex of Cardim-Barata(2004) they include an econometric model relating the educational level of regional Population and regional Development in year 2000, with a sample of 27 observations, and the following variables: Y = Regional PH in year 2000 – Average PH of Brazil in year 2000. X1 = Regional percentage of adult population with more than 7 years of schooling – Average value of X1 for Brazil in year 2000. DP = Dummy for special positive effects in some regions. DN = Dummy for special negative effects in some regions. The average value of Brazil was 6473 for Y, in Reais per capita, in year 2000. The average value of X1 of Brazil was 35. The estimated coefficient of X1 was positive (320) and highly significant (with a t-statistics of 26.92). The effects of dummy variables where positive for DP (2156) and negative por DN (-2210) Regions with special effects: Positive effects in. Amazonia and Brasilia. Negative effects in Roraima, Amapa, Tocantins and Goias. As seen in Guisan and Cardim-Barata(2003) the highest educational level and the highest Production per capita in year 2000 corresponded to Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. International studies of regional development for the period 2001-2023 In the study by Guisan(2022a,b), with samples of the period 2001-2023 we analyze the effects of Education on Development and Quality of Life in 372 regions of OECD countries in year 2016, including several American countries: Canada, Chile, Mexico and the United States. Good news is the inclusion of more Latin American countries as OECD members. The total number of OECD members evolved from 20 in year 1960 to 38 as of May 2021, with only 2 American countries at the beginning (Canada and the USA). Mexico joined in 1994, Chile in 2010, Colombia in year 2020 and it is schedulted to include more Latin American countries soon. Guisan, M.C.; Aguayo, E.; Exposito,P. Education and International Development, 1960-2000 93 2.5. 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