Evaluación del desequilibrio gamético dependiente de marcador en el brazo corto del cromosoma 11 humano : estudio de asociación con la otosclerosis
Full text
Evaluación del desequilibrio gamético dependiente de marcador en el brazo corto del cromosoma 11 humano. Estudio de asociación con la otosclerosis Evaluación del desequilibrio gamético dependiente de marcador en el brazo corto del cromosoma 11 humano. Estudio de asociación con la otosclerosis Facultad de Biología Departamento de Genética Tesis Doctoral Laura Rodríguez Murillo Tesis Doctoral Laura Rodríguez Murillo
)$&8/7$''(%,2/2*Ë$ 'HSDUWDPHQWRGH*HQpWLFD 0(025,$35(6(17$'$325 /$85$52'5Ë*8(=085,//2 3$5$237$5$/*5$'2'('2&725$(1%,2/2*Ë$ 6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHOD, (9$/8$&,Ï1'(/'(6(48,/,%5,2*$0e7,&2 '(3(1',(17('(0$5&$'25(1(/%5$=2&2572 '(/&5202620$+80$12 (678',2'($62&,$&,Ï1&21/$2726&/(526,6
(/ '5 &$5/26 =$3$7$ %$%Ë2 &$7('5È7,&2 '(/ '(3$57$0(172 '( *(1e7,&$'(/$81,9(56,'$''(6$17,$*2'(&203267(/$<(/'5 &$5/26 0$57,1 0$57,1 352)(625 7,78/$5 '(/ '(3$57$0(172 '( '(50$72/2*Ë$ < 27255,12/$5,1*2/2*Ë$ '( /$ 81,9(56,'$' '( 6$17,$*2'(&203267(/$ ,1)250$1 4XH HO WUDEDMR WLWXODGR ³(9$/8$&,Ï1 '(/ '(6(48,/,%5,2 *$0e7,&2 '(3(1',(17('(0$5&$'25(1(/%5$=2&2572'(/&5202620$ +80$12(678',2'($62&,$&,Ï1&21/$2726&/(526,6´TXHSUHVHQWD /$85$52'5Ë*8(=085,//2SDUDODREWHQFLyQGHO*UDGRGH'RFWRUDHQ%LRORJtDKD VLGR UHDOL]DGR EDMR VX GLUHFFLyQ TXH OR FRQVLGHUDQ FRQFOXLGR \ DXWRUL]DQ VX SUHVHQWDFLyQDOWULEXQDOFDOLILFDGRU <SDUDTXHDVtFRQVWHVHILUPDHOSUHVHQWHLQIRUPHHQ6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHODD GH$EULOGHGRVPLOFLQFR )GR&DUORV=DSDWD%DEtR )GR&DUORV0DUWtQ0DUWtQ
(VWH WUDEDMR KD VLGR ILQDQFLDGR PHGLDQWH ORV 3UR\HFWRV GH ,QYHVWLJDFLyQ %0&FRQFHGLGRSRUHO0LQLVWHULRGH&LHQFLD\7HFQRORJtDDO'U&DUORV =DSDWD %DEtR 3*,',73;,&31 FRQFHGLGR SRU OD ;XQWDGH *DOLFLDDO'U &DUORV=DSDWD%DEtR3*,',750$35FRQFHGLGRSRUOD;XQWDGH*DOLFLD DO'U&DUORV=DSDWD%DEtR\),6FRQFHGLGRSRUHO0LQLVWHULRGH6DQLGDG\ &RQVXPR DO 'U &DUORV 0DUWtQ 0DUWtQ $VLPLVPR VX UHDOL]DFLyQ VH KD YLVWR IDFLOLWDGD JUDFLDV DO GLVIUXWH GH XQD %ROVD GH 7HUFHLUR &LFOR \ XQD %ROVD 3UHGRXWRUDOFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHDO3ODQ*DOHJRGH,QYHVWLJDFLyQH'HVHQYROYHPHQWR FRQFHGLGDV SRU OD 'LUHFFLyQ ;HUDO GH ,QYHVWLJDFLyQ H 'HVHQYROYHPHQWR GH OD ;XQWD GH *DOLFLD \ D XQD %ROVD GH &RRSHUDFLyQ HQ &RQWUDWRV H &RQYHQLRV FRQFHGLGDSRUOD8QLYHUVLGDGGH6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHOD
(OFRQWHQLGRGHHVWD0HPRULDQRSRGUiUHSURGXFLUVH\DVHDWRGRRHQSDUWH EDMRQLQJ~QWLSRGHVRSRUWHVLQODDXWRUL]DFLyQH[SUHVDGHO'U-&DUORV=DSDWD %DEtR < SDUD TXH FRQVWH D ORV HIHFWRV RSRUWXQRV ILUPDPRV HO SUHVHQWH LQIRUPH HQ 6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHODDGH$EULOGHGRVPLOFLQFR )GR-&DUORV=DSDWD%DEtR )GR/DXUD5RGUtJXH]0XULOOR
$JUDGHFLPLHQWRV [ LY *UDFLDVDWRGDVODVSDUWHVGHPLIDPLOLDSRUTXHDOILQ\DOFDERVLQYRVRWURV\R QRHVWDUtDDTXt <PXFKDVJUDFLDV&KULVWLDQSRUTXHW~KDVYLYLGROD~OWLPDHWDSDGHHVWHWUDEDMR WDQWRFRPR\RDKRUDWRFDGLVIUXWDUORMXQWRV
$EUHYLDWXUDV
$EUHYLDWXUDV [ YLL F0 FHQWL0RUJDQ ') 'LVWDQFLD)tVLFD '* 'HVHTXLOLEULR*DPpWLFR '**( (OHFWURIRUHVLVHQJHOHVFRQJUDGLHQWHGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ 'HQDWXULQJ*UDGLHQW*HO(OHFWURSKRUHVLV '1$ ÈFLGRGHVR[LUULERQXFOHLFR ('7$ ÈFLGR(WLOHQGLDPLQRWHWUDDFpWLFR6DO'LVyGLFD (WK\OHQHGLDPLQHWHWUDDFHWLF$FLG'LVRGLXP6DOW (0 ([SHFWDFLyQ0D[LPL]DFLyQ )5( )UHFXHQFLDGH5HFRPELQDFLyQ(IHFWLYD JO *UDGRVGHOLEHUWDG +DS0DS 0DSDGH+DSORWLSRV+DSORW\SH0DS KH+HWHUR]LJRVLVHVSHUDGD KR+HWHUR]LJRVLVREVHUYDGD +:+DUG\:HLQEHUJ NE .LOREDVHV 0E 0HJDEDVHV 1&%, 1DWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU%LRWHFKQRORJ\,QIRUPDWLRQ 176<6 1XPHULFDO7D[RQRP\DQG0XOWLYDULDWH$QDO\VLV6\VWHP 3 3UREDELOLGDG SE 3DUHVGHEDVHV 3&5 5HDFFLyQHQFDGHQDGHODSROLPHUDVD3ROLPHUDVH&KDLQ5HDFWLRQ 5)/3V 3ROLPRUILVPRVGHORQJLWXGGHIUDJPHQWRVGHUHVWULFFLyQ5HVWULFWLRQ )UDJPHQW/HQJKW3RO\PRUSKLVPV USP 5HYROXFLRQHVSRUPLQXWR 6( (UURUHVWiQGDU6WDQGDUG(UURU 613V 3ROLPRUILVPRVGH1XFOHyWLGRV6HQFLOORV6LQJOH1XFOHRWLGH 3ROLPRUSKLVPV 7ULV7ULVK\GUR[LPHWK\ODPLQRPHWKDQH 76& 7KH613&RQVRUWLXP
ËQGLFH
ËQGLFH [ [L 5(680(16800$5<«««««««««««««««««« ,1752'8&&,Ï1 (O'*HQODGHWHFFLyQGHJHQHVLPSOLFDGRVHQHQIHUPHGDGHV (O'*GHSHQGLHQWHGHPDUFDGRU«««««««««««««««««« (OFDVRGHODRWRVFOHURVLV««««««««««««««««««««« 2EMHWLYRV«««««««««««««««««««««««««««« 0$7(5,$/<0e72'26«««««««««««««««««« ,(9$/8$&,Ï1'(/'*'(3(1',(17('(0$5&$'25(13««« 0DUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRV««««««««««««««««« 'LVWDQFLDVItVLFDV')\IUHFXHQFLDVGHUHFRPELQDFLyQHIHFWLYDV )5(HQWUHORVORFL««««««««««««««««««««« ')HQWUHORVPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRV«««««« )5(HQWUHSDUHVGH613V\HQWUHSDUHVGH PLFURVDWpOLWHV«««««««««««««««««««« *HQRWLSDGR««««««««««««««««««««««««««« *HQRWLSDGRGHORVORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHV««««««««««««« *HQRWLSDGRGHORV613V«««««««««««««««««« 0DWHULDOELROyJLFR««««««««««««««««««« ([WUDFFLyQGH'1$«««««««««««««««««« *HQRWLSDGRGHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH3&55)/3« $PSOLILFDFLyQSRUOD3&5GHORV613V«««««« $PSOLILFDFLyQGHOORFXV+5$61VL,«««««««« 'LJHVWLyQGHORVSURGXFWRVGHDPSOLILFDFLyQSDUDORV 613V«««««««««««««««««««« 5HVROXFLyQGHORVJHQRWLSRV(OHFWURIRUHVLV«««« 3UHSDUDFLyQGHOJHO«««««««««« 6LVWHPDHOHFWURIRUpWLFR«««««««« 7LQFLyQGHOJHO«««««««««««« *HQRWLSDGRGHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH'**(««««
,QGLFH [ [LL $PSOLILFDFLyQSRU3&5GHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH '**(«««««««««««««««««««««« '**(«««««««««««««««««««««« 3UHSDUDFLyQGHOJHOGHHOHFWURIRUHVLV«««« &DUJDGHOJHO\PLJUDFLyQHOHFWURIRUpWLFD««« 9LVXDOL]DFLyQGHORVUHVXOWDGRV««««««« $QiOLVLVGHORVGDWRV««««««««««««««««««««««« $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDSREODFLRQDO««« 9DULDELOLGDGJHQpWLFD««««««««««««««««« 0DJQLWXG\VLJQLILFDFLyQGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVGHODV SURSRUFLRQHV+DUG\:HLQEHUJ««««««««««««« 0DJQLWXGGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHV«««««««««« 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHV«««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHOGHVHTXLOLEULRJDPpWLFR'*««««««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDV«««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*««««««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*HQWUHORFL ELDOpOLFRV613V«««««««««««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*HQWUHSDUHVGH ORFLPXOWLDOpOLFRVPLFURVDWpOLWHV««««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHORV'* LQWHUDOpOLFRV«««««««««««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHORV'*JOREDOHV GHVLJQRSRVLWLYR«««««««««««««« 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHO'*«««««««««««««««««« 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHO'*HQWUHSDUHVGHORFLELDOpOLFRV 613V««««««««««««««««««««« 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHO'*HQWUHSDUHVGHORFLPXOWLDOpOLFRV PLFURVDWpOLWHV««««««««««««««««« 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHO'*LQWHUDOpOLFRSRVLWLYR«« 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHO'*JOREDOSRVLWLYR«««« 5HODFLyQGHO'*FRQOD)5(\OD')««««««««««««««
ËQGLFH [ [LLL ,,(678',2'($62&,$&,Ï1'(/$2726&/(526,6&21/26 *(1(6'(/&2/È*(127,32,&2/$<&2/$««««««« 0DWHULDOELROyJLFR«««««««««««««««««««««« ([WUDFFLyQGH'1$««««««««««««««««««« 0DUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRV««««««««««««««« $PSOLILFDFLyQSRUOD3&5GHORVPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRV««««« 'LJHVWLyQGHORVSURGXFWRVGHDPSOLILFDFLyQSDUDORV613V«««« 5HVROXFLyQGHORVJHQRWLSRV(OHFWURIRUHVLV«««««««««« $QiOLVLVGHORVGDWRV«««««««««««««««««««« $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDSREODFLRQDO« (VWLPDFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDV«««««««« $QiOLVLVGHDVRFLDFLyQ««««««««««««««««« (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHODDVRFLDFLyQ\VX VLJQLILFDFLyQ««««««««««««««««««« 5(68/7$'26«««««««««««««««««««««« ,(9$/8$&,Ï1'(/'*'(3(1',(17('(0$5&$'25(13« (VWXGLRGHO'*HQWUHSDUHVGH613V««««««««««««««« ,QWHUSUHWDFLyQGHORVSDWURQHVHOHFWURIRUpWLFRVGHORV613V««« 613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH3&55)/3««««««««« 613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH'**(««««««««««« $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\ODHVWUXFWXUDSREODFLRQDO«««««« $QiOLVLVGHO'*«««««««««««««««««««««« '*HQWUHSDUHVGH613V««««««««««««««« 5HODFLyQGHO'*FRQOD)5(\OD')««««««««««« (VWXGLRGHO'*HQWUHSDUHVGHORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHV«««««««««« $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDSREODFLRQDO««« $QiOLVLVGHO'*«««««««««««««««««««««« '*LQWHUDOpOLFRV««««««««««««««««««« 5HODFLyQGHO'*LQWHUDOpOLFRFRQHOWDPDxR\IUHFXHQFLDGH ORVDOHORV«««««««««««««««««««««« '*JOREDOHVSRVLWLYRV«««««««««««««««««
,QWURGXFFLyQ (OWpUPLQR³JHQRPD´DFXxDGRHQHODxRSRUHOERWiQLFRDOHPiQ+DQV :LQNOHU SDUD GHVLJQDU HO FRQMXQWR GH FURPRVRPDV KDSORLGHV GH HXFDULRWDV VH SRGUtD GHILQLU DFWXDOPHQWH FRPR DOJR PiV TXH OD VXPD GH VXV SDUWHV HVHQFLDOPHQWH GHELGR D ODV LQWHUDFFLRQHV HVWUXFWXUDOHV IXQFLRQDOHV \ HYROXWLYDV TXH RFXUUHQ HQWUH VXV GLIHUHQWHV UHJLRQHV %(51$5', &DGD JHQRPD HV ~QLFR\VXVHFXHQFLDGHQXFOHyWLGRVGLILHUHHQWUHLQGLYLGXRVDSUR[LPDGDPHQWHHQ QXFOHyWLGRFDGDSE/, < 6$'/(535=(:256.,HW DO.58*/<$.\ 1,&.(5621 )25721HW DO (VWH SROLPRUILVPR GHO '1$ LQIOXHQFLD FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV LQGLYLGXDOHV FRPR OD DSDULHQFLD ItVLFD VXVFHSWLELOLGDG D HQIHUPHGDGHV 5,6&+ < 0(5,.$1*$6 .58*/<$. -25'( R UHVSXHVWD D WUDWDPLHQWRV IDUPDFROyJLFRV 526(6 :,/621HW DO *2/'67(,1HW DO (O SROLPRUILVPRGHO'1$ WDPELpQUHSUHVHQWDXQ UHJLVWUR IyVLO GH OD KLVWRULD \ OD HVWUXFWXUD GH ODV SREODFLRQHV DQFHVWUDOHV 5(,&+HW DO (O HVWXGLR GH ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV QR DO D]DU HQWUH DOHORV GH ORFL GLVWLQWRV R GHVHTXLOLEULR JDPpWLFR '* HV IXQGDPHQWDO D OD KRUD GH HVWXGLDU HVD YDULDFLyQ LQWHULQGLYLGXDO H LQWHUSREODFLRQDO \ SHUPLWH DERUGDU OD WDUHD GH OD ORFDOL]DFLyQ GH JHQHVLPSOLFDGRVHQHQIHUPHGDGHV/$1'(5\6&+25.5,6&+\0(5,.$1*$6 .58*/<$.-25'(35,7&+$5'\35=(:256.,$5'/,(HWDO %2767(,1\5,6&+ :$//\35,7&+$5' /RV SDWURQHV GH '* SXHGHQVHUWDPELpQGHXWLOLGDGSDUDLQIHULUODGLVWULEXFLyQGHORVSXQWRVFDOLHQWHV GH UHFRPELQDFLyQ HQ HO FURPRVRPD '$:621HW DO *$%5,(/HW DO 3+,//,36HW DO $GHPiV SXHGH VHU GH JUDQ D\XGD SDUD HO HVWXGLR GH IHQyPHQRV GH OD KLVWRULD HYROXWLYD GH ODV SREODFLRQHV FRPR FUHFLPLHQWR SREODFLRQDO PXWDFLRQHV GHULYD JHQpWLFD FXHOORV GH ERWHOOD PRYLPLHQWRV PLJUDWRULRV \ PH]FOD 7,6+.2))HW DO +('5,&. 5(,&+HW DO 125'%25*\7$9$5(&$03HWDO=+$1*HWDODVtFRPRSDUDHO HVWXGLRGHODVHOHFFLyQQDWXUDO7,6+.2))HWDO6$%(7,HWDO3RURWUR ODGRHO'*SXHGHD\XGDUDGHVHQWUDxDUODHVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDGHODVSREODFLRQHV DFWXDOHV35,7&+$5'\526(1%(5*
,QWURGXFFLyQ 7UDGLFLRQDOPHQWHHOHVWXGLRGHO'*MXJyXQSDSHOIXQGDPHQWDODODKRUDGH GHFLGLUHQWUHODWHRUtDJHQpWLFDFOiVLFDGRQGHHOJHQHVODXQLGDGGHVHOHFFLyQROD WHRUtD JHQpWLFD PXOWLORFL TXH RWRUJD UHOHYDQFLD D ODV LQWHUDFFLRQHV TXH SXHGDQ H[LVWLUHQWUHORVORFL)5$1./,1</(:217,1/(:217,1+LVWyULFDPHQWH VHVXSRQtDTXHODVHOHFFLyQQDWXUDODFWXDEDHQJHQHVLQGLYLGXDOHVGHPDQHUDTXH ODHYROXFLyQVHSRGtDGHVFULELUHQWpUPLQRVGHFDPELRVHQODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV &/(**&RQODPDGXUDFLyQHQHVWHFDPSRVHGHVDUUROOyODLGHDGHTXHOD GLQiPLFD HYROXWLYD GH FXDOTXLHU JHQ SDUWLFXODU SRGUtD HVWDU LQIOXHQFLDGD SRU DVRFLDFLRQHV HVWDGtVWLFDV FRQ JHQHVHQ ORFL GLVWLQWRV 'H HVWD PDQHUD VXUJLy HO HVWXGLRGHODJHQpWLFDPXOWLORFLFRPRXQDWHRUtDPiVFRPSOHWDTXHHYDOXDEDODV FRQVHFXHQFLDVGHODWUDQVPLVLyQGHHVWDVDVRFLDFLRQHV$6086(1<&/(** $Vt VL VH GHPRVWUDVH TXH ORV YDORUHV GH '* QR HUDQ UHOHYDQWHV HQ ODV SREODFLRQHVFREUDUtDIXHU]DODLGHDGHOJHQFRPRXQLGDGGHVHOHFFLyQ6LSRUHO FRQWUDULRHO'*UHVXOWDUDVHUUHOHYDQWHHQODVSREODFLRQHVQDWXUDOHVODWHRUtDGH XQ VROR ORFXV GHMDUtD GH VHU YiOLGD 'H HVWH PRGR SDUD XQ FRQRFLPLHQWR PiV SURIXQGR GH OD HVWUXFWXUD JHQpWLFD GH ODV SREODFLRQHV VH QHFHVLWDUtD FRQRFHU DGHPiVGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHORVORFLLQGLYLGXDOHVHOJUDGRHQHOTXHHVRV ORFLVHDVRFLDEDQQRDOD]DU\ODH[WHQVLyQGHHVDVDVRFLDFLRQHV /RV SULPHURV HVWXGLRV WHyULFRV HQFDPLQDGRV D HVWXGLDU HO '* HQ ODV SREODFLRQHVVHFHQWUDURQHQHOVLVWHPDPiVVHQFLOORGRVORFLFRQGRVDOHORV(Q HVWDVLQYHVWLJDFLRQHVH[DPLQDURQHO'*EDMRXQPRGHORVLPpWULFRGHYLDELOLGDGGH GRVORFLFRQGRVDOHORV/(:217,1<.2-,0$%2'0(5<3$56216(VWRV DXWRUHVFRQFOX\HURQTXHHO'*VyORHVWDEDSUHVHQWHHQODVSREODFLRQHVFXDQGRVH FXPSOtDQ FRQGLFLRQHV HVSHFLDOHV FRPR IXHUWH HSLVWDVLV UHVSHFWR DO YDORU GH UHFRPELQDFLyQRHVWUHFKROLJDPLHQWR3HURHQWUDEDMRVSRVWHULRUHVVHREVHUYyTXH ODVFRQGLFLRQHVSDUDODH[LVWHQFLDGHXQ'*HVWDEOHHQWUHSDUHVGHORFLSRGUtDQ VHUPHQRVDVWULQJHQWHVHQHOFRQWH[WRGHXQVLVWHPDFRQPD\RUQ~PHURGHORFL /(:217,1)5$1./,1\/(:217,16/$7.,1(QHVWRVWUDEDMRVGH VLPXODFLyQ SRU RUGHQDGRU ODV FRQGLFLRQHV SDUD REWHQHU XQ '* HVWDEOH VH UHODMDEDQFRQUHVSHFWRDODWHRUtDGHGRVORFL(VWRVUHVXOWDGRVVXJHUtDQTXHGRV ORFLDG\DFHQWHVVHPDQWHQGUtDQHQPD\RU'*TXHORSUHGLFKRSRUODWHRUtDGHGRV
,QWURGXFFLyQ ORFLFXDQGRHVWXYLHUDQLQFOXLGRVHQXQDFDGHQDFRQRWURVORFLLQWHUDFWXDQGRFRQ HOORV HIHFWRGH HPSRWUDPLHQWR$GHPiV ORFL OHMDQRV HQWUH Vt HQ HOFURPRVRPD SRGUtDQ PDQWHQHU XQ '* HVWDEOH GHELGR D DVRFLDFLRQHV FRQ ORFL VLWXDGRV HQWUH HOORVHIHFWRDFXPXODWLYR)5$1./,1\/(:217,1 /RVHVWXGLRVGH'*SDUDVLVWHPDVJHQpWLFRVPXOWLORFLSDUHFtDQLQGLFDUTXH pVWH GHEHUtD VHU XQ IHQyPHQR JHQHUDO HQ ODV SREODFLRQHV 3HUR ORV SULPHURV DQiOLVLVH[SHULPHQWDOHVHQORVDxRVFRQSREODFLRQHVQDWXUDOHV GH'URVRSKLOD VXJHUtDQ TXH HO '* HUD HVFDVR HQ OD QDWXUDOH]D LQFOXVR HQWUH ORFL SURWHLFRV IXHUWHPHQWHOLJDGRV+('5,&.HWDO%$5.(5/(:217,1+('5,&. (VWRV UHVXOWDGRV IXHURQ VRUSUHQGHQWHVGDGDOD JUDQ FDQWLGDG GH IDFWRUHV SREODFLRQDOHV DGHPiV GH OD VHOHFFLyQ TXH SRWHQFLDOPHQWH SRGUtDQ HVWDU JHQHUDQGR'* GHULYD JpQLFD HIHFWRV IXQGDGRUHV FXHOORV GH ERWHOOD PLJUDFLyQ PXWDFLyQKLWFKKLNLQJ+('5,&.HWDO3DUDJHQHVQHXWUDOHVHQSREODFLRQHV GHWDPDxRILQLWRODGHULYDJHQpWLFDSXHGHVHUODUHVSRQVDEOHGHFUHDUDVRFLDFLRQHV HQWUH DOHORV GH ORFL GLVWLQWRV +,// < 52%(57621 2+7$ < .,085$ 6/$7.,1$VtLQFOXVRFRQXQWDPDxRSREODFLRQDOJUDQGHHQODDFWXDOLGDGHO '* SXHGH HVWDU SUHVHQWH GHELGR D VX SURFHGHQFLD GH XQD SHTXHxD SREODFLyQ IXQGDGRUDRSRUODH[LVWHQFLDHQHOSDVDGRGHXQFXHOORGHERWHOODHQODSREODFLyQ 5(,&+HWDO37$.HWDO$VtPLVPRODPLJUDFLyQHQWUHSREODFLRQHV SXHGH JHQHUDU DVRFLDFLRQHV QR DOHDWRULDV HQWUH ORFL GLVWLQWRV FXDQGR VXV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV VRQ GLIHUHQWHV +('5,&.HW DO (O HIHFWR GH OD VXEGLYLVLyQ R HVWUDWLILFDFLyQ SREODFLRQDO HV HVHQFLDOPHQWH HO PLVPR TXH OD PLJUDFLyQGHPDQHUDTXHVLORVJUXSRVSREODFLRQDOHVPDQWLHQHQSRFRIOXMRJpQLFR KDEUi'*GHELGRDVXVGLIHUHQWHVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV1(,\/,/,\1(, 2+7$:,/621\*2/'67(,1 2WUR IDFWRU TXH SXHGH JHQHUDU '* HV OD PXWDFLyQ 2+7$\.,085$ +('5,&.HW DO 3UREDEOHPHQWH OD PXWDFLyQ SRU Vt PLVPD JHQHUD FDQWLGDGHV LQVLJQLILFDQWHV GH '* VLQ HPEDUJR PXWDFLyQ PLJUDFLyQ \ UHFRPELQDFLyQVRQODVIXHQWHVGHQXHYRVWLSRVJDPpWLFRVHQODSREODFLyQ1XHYRV JDPHWRVSURGXFLGRVSRUPXWDFLyQSXHGHQDXPHQWDUVXIUHFXHQFLDSRUHIHFWRGH
,QWURGXFFLyQ OD GHULYD JHQpWLFD R SRU VHOHFFLyQ OR TXH SXHGH JHQHUDU XQ '* VXEVLJXLHQWH +('5,&.HW DO +('5,&. 3RU ~OWLPR FDEH FLWDU XQ IHQyPHQR TXH SXHGH JHQHUDU '* HQWUH ORFL QHXWUDOHV SDUD OD VHOHFFLyQ (VWH IHQyPHQR HV HO DUUDVWUH JHQpWLFR R KLWFKKLNLQJ 0HGLDQWH HVWH IHQyPHQR OD VHOHFFLyQ DFWXDQGR VREUHXQORFXVSXHGHFDPELDUODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHRWURORFXVQHXWUDOTXH HVWp OLJDGR DO ORFXV TXH HVWi VLHQGR VHOHFFLRQDGR .2-,0$\6&+$))(5 1$&+0$135=(:256., 3RU RWUR ODGR WRGRV ORV IDFWRUHV TXH GLVPLQX\DQ HO Q~PHUR GH GREOHV KHWHUR]LJRWRV VREUH ORV TXH SXHGH DFWXDU OD UHFRPELQDFLyQ URPSLHQGR ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV UHWDUGDUiQ HO GHFDLPLHQWR GHO '* (QWUH HVWRV IDFWRUHV HVWiQ HO OLJDPLHQWRODVLQYHUVLRQHVFURPRVyPLFDV\ODVGHVYLDFLRQHVGHODSDUHDPLHQWRDO D]DU$GHPiVODFRQVDQJXLQLGDGDFW~DGHPDQHUDVLPLODUDOOLJDPLHQWRUHWDUGDQGR HOGHFDLPLHQWRGHO'*$//$5'HWDO.$5/,1:(,5HWDO:(,5\ &2&.(5+$0+('5,&.HWDO3RU~OWLPRFDEHVHxDODUORVIDFWRUHVTXH DFHOHUDQHOGHFDLPLHQWRGHO'*TXHVRQSULQFLSDOPHQWHODFRQYHUVLyQJpQLFDOD PXWDFLyQUHFXUUHQWH\ODUHFRPELQDFLyQDFWXDQGRVREUHORVGREOHVKHWHURFLJRWRV /RVGRVSULPHURVDFW~DQD FRUWDVGLVWDQFLDV\HQEDMDIUHFXHQFLDSHUR DODUJDV GLVWDQFLDVODUHFRPELQDFLyQHVSUHSRQGHUDQWH 7UDVODFRQVLGHUDFLyQGHWRGRVORVIHQyPHQRVTXHSRGUtDQJHQHUDU'*VH UHTXHUtDODE~VTXHGDGHFDXVDVDODHVFDVH]GH'*REVHUYDGRHQODVSREODFLRQHV QDWXUDOHV (Q XQ SULQFLSLR VH WUDEDMy FRQ OD SRVLELOLGDG GH TXHODVWpFQLFDV HOHFWURIRUpWLFDV XWLOL]DGDV FRQ ORFL DOR]tPLFRV QR HVWXYLHUDQ GHWHFWDQGR WRGD OD YDULDELOLGDGH[LVWHQWH$GHPiVH[LVWtDODLGHDGHTXHODIDOWDGHDVRFLDFLRQHVIXHVH GHELGD D ODV HQRUPHV GLVWDQFLDV GH PDSD H[LVWHQWHV HQWUH ORV ORFL HVWXGLDGRV 3HURFRQ OD OOHJDGDGHORVSROLPRUILVPRVGH '1$ VH GLVSXVR GHXQD EDWHUtDGH PDUFDGRUHVPROHFXODUHVORVXILFLHQWHPHQWHFHUFDQRVHQHOFURPRVRPDFRPRSDUD PRVWUDU'*DGHPiVGHVHUODIXHQWHPLVPDGHODYDULDELOLGDG$SHVDUGHHVWR ORV SULPHURV HVWXGLRV HQ '1$ FRQ 5)/3V 5HVWULFWLRQ )UDJPHQW /HQJWK 3RO\PRUSKLVPV GLHURQ UHVXOWDGRV VHPHMDQWHV D ORV DQWHULRUHV VXJLULHQGR TXH HO '*HUDXQIHQyPHQRHVFDVRHQODVSREODFLRQHVQDWXUDOHV+('5,&.HWDO
,QWURGXFFLyQ %$5.(5 /(:217,1 ,QFOXVR PiV UHFLHQWHPHQWH HO '* SDUHFtD VHU HVFDVR HQ HO '1$ D GLVWDQFLDV PD\RUHV GH F0 ∼0E% 2'0(5 .58*/<$.277 /D IDOWD GH UHODFLyQ IXQFLRQDO HQWUH ORV ORFL DQDOL]DGRV VH SRVWXOy WDPELpQ FRPR XQD FDXVD GH OD DXVHQFLD GH '* HQ ORV HVWXGLRV H[SHULPHQWDOHV 5HFLHQWHPHQWH =$3$7$HW DO HQ XQ HVWXGLR FRQ ORFL SURWHLFRV GLVWULEXLGRV D OR ODUJR GHO WHUFHU FURPRVRPD GH 'URVRSKLOD PHODQRJDVWHU HQFRQWUDURQ '* HQ GLVWDQFLDV GH KDVWD − F0 HQWUH ORFL UHODFLRQDGRV IXQFLRQDOPHQWH6XVUHVXOWDGRVDSR\DEDQODKLSyWHVLVGHLQWHUDFFLRQHVHSLVWiWLFDV HQILWQHVVDFWXDQGRSDUDGHWHUPLQDUODFDQWLGDG\GLVWULEXFLyQGHO'*DORODUJRGHO WHUFHUFURPRVRPDGH'PHODQRJDVWHU 2WUD GH ODV SRVLEOHV FDXVDV GH OD IDOWD GH GHWHFFLyQ GH '* HQ ODV SREODFLRQHVQDWXUDOHVSDUHFtDDSXQWDUDODHVFDVDSRWHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFDGHORVWHVWV XWLOL]DGRV SDUD GHWHFWDU ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV %52:1 +('5,&.HW DO +$67,1*6=$3$7$\$/9$5(==$3$7$\$/9$5(= UHDOL]DURQXQPHWDDQiOLVLVGHXQFRQMXQWRGHHVWXGLRVGH'*HQWUHSDUHVGHORFL SURWHLFRV FRQ HVSHFLHV GH 'URVRSKLOD \ HQFRQWUDURQ TXH HO YDORU SURPHGLR GH SRWHQFLD HQ OD PD\RUtD GH ORV WUDEDMRV HUD WDQ VyOR GH XQ /D SRWHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD GH ORV WHVWV HPSOHDGRV HQ HO DQiOLVLV GHO '* HV IXQFLyQ GH OD LQWHQVLGDGGHO'*EDMRODKLSyWHVLVDOWHUQDWLYDGHHTXLOLEULRJDPpWLFRDVtFRPRGH ODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVHOVLJQRGHODVDVRFLDFLRQHV\HOWDPDxRPXHVWUDO%52:1 :(,5\&2&.(5+$0&+$.5$%257<)8\$512/'=$3$7$\ $/9$5(='HDFXHUGRFRQHVWRODSRWHQFLDSXHGHVHUPX\EDMDVLHO '* QR HV LQWHQVR \R ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV QR VRQ LQWHUPHGLDV %DMR HVWDV FRQGLFLRQHV ORV WDPDxRV GH PXHVWUD QHFHVDULRV SDUD GHWHFWDU '* VRQ PX\ HOHYDGRV $GHPiV ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV HVWDGtVWLFDV HQWUH ORFL HQ WDEODV GH FRQWLQJHQFLD KDEtDQ VLGR WHVWDGDV WUDGLFLRQDOPHQWH PHGLDQWH HO WHVW H[DFWR GH )LVKHUHOFXDOHVPX\FRQVHUYDGRU83721'¶$*267,12HWDO=$3$7$ \$/9$5(=(VWRDXPHQWDHQJUDQPHGLGDODSUREDELOLGDGGHOHUURUGHWLSR,, DFHSWDUODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHHTXLOLEULRJDPpWLFRFXDQGRHVIDOVD\SRUWDQWRQRHV
,QWURGXFFLyQ GHVHDEOH HQ HVWXGLRV GH '* $Vt HO WHVW FKLFXDGUDGR HV PiV DSURSLDGR SDUD DSOLFDUDXQDWDEODGHFRQWLQJHQFLD[\WLHQHODYHQWDMDGHTXHHVWiUHODFLRQDGR FRQFRHILFLHQWHVTXHPLGHQODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*+('5,&.HWDO=$3$7$\ $/9$5(==(5%$HWDODQDOL]DQGRHVWXGLRVSXEOLFDGRVGH'*HQOD UHJLyQGHOJHQ$SR%LQIRUPDURQDFHUFDGHXQHOHYDGRHUURUGHWLSR,,HQHVWRV WUDEDMRV (O UHDQiOLVLV GH YDULRV HVWXGLRV GH '* FRQMXQWDPHQWHOOHYyDOD REVHUYDFLyQ GH TXH HO '* UHVXOWDED VHU UHODWLYDPHQWH IUHFXHQWH LQFOXVR HQWUH SDUHVGHORFLGpELOPHQWHOLJDGRV=$3$7$\$/9$5(=3DUHFtDSRUWDQWRTXH HO'*VtWHQtDFLHUWDUHOHYDQFLDHQODVSREODFLRQHVQDWXUDOHV /DHVWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*DGHPiVGHVXGHWHFFLyQWDPELpQHV XQSXQWRSUREOHPiWLFRHQPXFKRVWUDEDMRV(QDOJXQDVRFDVLRQHVVHKDQXWLOL]DGR ODV SUREDELOLGDGHV UHVXOWDQWHV GH ORV WHVWV GH VLJQLILFDFLyQ FRPR PHGLGD GH OD LQWHQVLGDGGHO'*3HURHVWDPHGLGDQRHVXQDEXHQDKHUUDPLHQWDSDUDPHGLUOD LQWHQVLGDG R KDFHU FRPSDUDFLRQHV HQWUH ORFL SRUTXH OD SRWHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD GHSHQGH GHO WDPDxR GH PXHVWUD GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV \ GHO VLJQR GH ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV%52:17+203621HW DO=$3$7$HW DOE$VtOD PHMRU PDQHUD GH PHGLU OD LQWHQVLGDG GHO '* VRQ ORV FRHILFLHQWHVRtQGLFHVGH DVRFLDFLyQ.(1'$//\678$57$*5(67,(9(5,77([LVWHQHQOD OLWHUDWXUD P~OWLSOHV FRHILFLHQWHV TXH PLGHQ OD DVRFLDFLyQ HQWUH SDUHV GH ORFL +('5,&.'(9/,1\5,6&+ *82 /RV PiV XWLOL]DGRV VRQ HO FRHILFLHQWH'¶/(:217,1\HOU+,//\52%(57621$XQTXHQRH[LVWH QLQJ~Q FRHILFLHQWH WRWDOPHQWH LQGHSHQGLHQWH GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV HO FRHILFLHQWH '¶ SUHVHQWD XQ UDQJR GH D LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV=$3$7$$GHPiVGHTXHVXVSURSLHGDGHVVHFRQRFHQ ELHQSDUDVLVWHPDVPXOWLDOpOLFRV=$3$7$HWDODE (O'*HQODGHWHFFLyQGHJHQHVLPSOLFDGRVHQHQIHUPHGDGHV (OFORQDMHSRVLFLRQDOSHUVLJXHDVLJQDUXQDSRVLFLyQHQHOJHQRPDDXQJHQ LPSOLFDGR HQ XQD HQIHUPHGDG VLQ QHFHVLGDG GH XQ FRQRFLPLHQWR SUHYLR GH OD ELRORJtD GH OD HQIHUPHGDG 7UDV OD LGHQWLILFDFLyQ GHO JHQ UHVSRQVDEOH GH OD
,QWURGXFFLyQ HQIHUPHGDG VH SXHGH OOHJDU D XQ FRQRFLPLHQWR GH ODV EDVHV PROHFXODUHV \ ILVLROyJLFDVGHOD HQIHUPHGDGORTXH VHUtD XQSULPHU SDVR SDUD HO GHVDUUROORGH WHUDSLDVDGHFXDGDV7UDGLFLRQDOPHQWHHOFORQDMHSRVLFLRQDOGHXQJHQFRPLHQ]D FRQXQDQiOLVLVGHOLJDPLHQWRHQIDPLOLDVTXHHVWiQVHJUHJDQGRSDUDHOFDUiFWHUGH OD HQIHUPHGDG (Q HVWDV IDPLOLDV VH HVWXGLD OD FRVHJUHJDFLyQGH OD HQIHUPHGDG FRQPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVVHOHFFLRQDGRVFRQORFDOL]DFLyQFRQRFLGDHQHOJHQRPD /$1'(5\6&+25.5,6&+%2767(,1\5,6&+/DFRUUHODFLyQGHO SDWUyQGHKHUHQFLDGHODHQIHUPHGDG\GHORVPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVHQXQDIDPLOLD VHUiWDQWRPD\RUFXDQWRPHQRUVHDODIUHFXHQFLDGHUHFRPELQDFLyQHQWUHDPERV $VtORVPDUFDGRUHVPiVSUy[LPRVDODPXWDFLyQGHODHQIHUPHGDGPRVWUDUiQXQD VHJUHJDFLyQ FRQMXQWD FRQ OD HQIHUPHGDG HQ XQ iUERO IDPLOLDU (O Q~PHUR GH HYHQWRV UHFRPELQDFLRQDOHV HQ XQD IDPLOLD HV OLPLWDGR SRU OR TXH QR HV SRVLEOH GHWHUPLQDUHORUGHQGHORVJHQHVDFRUWDVGLVWDQFLDVGRQGHODUHFRPELQDFLyQHV PHQRV IUHFXHQWH 3RU HVWD UD]yQ ORV DQiOLVLV GH OLJDPLHQWR DGVFULEHQ DO JHQ LPSOLFDGR HQ OD HQIHUPHGDG D XQD UHJLyQ GH XQD D YDULDV PHJDEDVHV GRQGH SXHGHQ HVWDU SUHVHQWHV PXOWLWXG GH JHQHV KDFLHQGR HO FORQDMH GHO JHQ UHVSRQVDEOHXQDWDUHDFRPSOLFDGD(QHVWRVFDVRVSDUDGLVPLQXLUHOWDPDxRGHOD UHJLyQ GHO JHQRPD SRVLEOHPHQWH LPSOLFDGD HQ OD HQIHUPHGDG VH KDQ REWHQLGR UHVXOWDGRV VDWLVIDFWRULRV PHGLDQWH OD XWLOL]DFLyQ GHO '* /RV SDWURQHV GH '* HQ XQD SREODFLyQ DFWXDO UHIOHMDQ OD DFFLyQ GH OD UHFRPELQDFLyQ D WUDYpV GH ODV JHQHUDFLRQHV SDVDGDV OD KLVWRULD HYROXWLYD GH OD SREODFLyQ GH PDQHUD TXH DXPHQWDODPXHVWUDGHUHFRPELQDQWHVUHVSHFWRDXQDVRODIDPLOLD-25'( $VtDOLQFRUSRUDUJUDQFDQWLGDGGHHYHQWRVUHFRPELQDFLRQDOHVORVDQiOLVLVGH'* SXHGHQDSRUWDULQIRUPDFLyQDFHUFDGHORUGHQDPLHQWRGHORVORFLHQUHJLRQHVTXH VRQGHPDVLDGRSHTXHxDVSDUDPRVWUDUUHFRPELQDFLRQHVHQXQDVSRFDVIDPLOLDV (QXQSULPHUPRPHQWRODPXWDFLyQGHODHQIHUPHGDGVXUJHHQ'*FRPSOHWRHQ XQ KDSORWLSR EDFNJURXQG GH PDUFDGRUHV OLJDGRV $ WUDYpV GH ODV JHQHUDFLRQHV VLJXLHQWHV OD UHFRPELQDFLyQ GLVLSD JUDGXDOPHQWH HO '* HQWUH OD PXWDFLyQ GH OD HQIHUPHGDG \ ORV PDUFDGRUHV SROLPyUILFRV (Q DXVHQFLD GH RWURV IHQyPHQRV SREODFLRQDOHV OD WDVD GH GLVLSDFLyQ GHO '* GHSHQGHUi ~QLFDPHQWH GH OD IUHFXHQFLDGHUHFRPELQDFLyQ$VtORVPDUFDGRUHVPiVSUy[LPRVDODPXWDFLyQGH ODHQIHUPHGDGFRQXQDPHQRUIUHFXHQFLDGHUHFRPELQDFLyQPDQLILHVWDQPD\RU
,QWURGXFFLyQ '*TXHORVPiVDOHMDGRV-25'(7(5:,//,*(57(5:,//,*(5\*g5,1* %2767(,1\5,6&+ /DXWLOL]DFLyQGHO'*SDUDODORFDOL]DFLyQGHIDFWRUHVJHQpWLFRVLPSOLFDGRV HQHQIHUPHGDGHVGHSHQGHGHODVDVRFLDFLRQHVH[LVWHQWHVHQWUHORVPDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV \ OD HQIHUPHGDG (VWRV DQiOLVLV GH DVRFLDFLyQ VH EDVDQ HQ OD FRPSDUDFLyQ GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV GH XQ PDUFDGRU JHQpWLFR SDUWLFXODU HQWUH LQGLYLGXRV DIHFWDGRV SRU OD HQIHUPHGDG QR UHODFLRQDGRV H LQGLYLGXRV FRQWURO DOHDWRULRVQRDIHFWDGRV%2767(,1\5,6&+/DDVRFLDFLyQVHGLFHTXHHVWi SUHVHQWH FXDQGR KD\ GLIHUHQFLDV VLJQLILFDWLYDV HQ HVWDV IUHFXHQFLDV HQWUH ODV PXHVWUDVGHHQIHUPRV\FRQWUROHV/$1'(5\6&+25.5,6&+\0(5,.$1*$6 277 7(5:,//,*(5\*g5,1* 6L HO PDUFDGRU HV DQyQLPR HV GHFLUQRWLHQHXQDUHODFLyQGHFDXVDOLGDGFRQODHQIHUPHGDGHQWRQFHVVHDVRFLD FRQ HOOD VyOR VL OD PXWDFLyQ UHVSRQVDEOH GHO IHQRWLSR HQIHUPR HVWi HQ ODV SUR[LPLGDGHV PDUFDGRU \ PXWDFLyQ FDXVDQWH GH OD HQIHUPHGDG HVWDUtDQ DVt HQ '*6&+$,'\6200(563,(/0$1\(:(16 0HGLDQWHDQiOLVLVGHOLJDPLHQWR\SRVWHULRUDSOLFDFLyQGHO'*SDUDGLVPLQXLU HOWDPDxRGHODUHJLyQFDQGLGDWDVHKDQREWHQLGRUHVXOWDGRVHVSHFWDFXODUHVSDUD PXOWLWXG GH JHQHV LPSOLFDGRV HQ HQIHUPHGDGHV FRQ KHUHQFLD PHQGHOLDQD FX\D EDVH JHQpWLFD HVWi HQ HO GHIHFWR GH XQ ~QLFR JHQ SRU OR PHQRV GHQWUR GHO FRQWH[WRGHXQDIDPLOLD(QWUHDOJXQDVGHHVWDVHQIHUPHGDGHVVHHQFXHQWUDQOD ILEURVLV TXtVWLFD .(5(0HW DO \ OD HQIHUPHGDG GH +XQWLQJWRQ *86(//$HWDO:+,7(HWDO3DUDHVWDVHQIHUPHGDGHVPRQRJpQLFDV UDUDVKD\XQDFRUUHVSRQGHQFLDFDVLWRWDOHQWUHHOIHQRWLSR\HOJHQRWLSRGHQWURGH ORViUEROHVIDPLOLDUHV3RUHVWRHOPDSHRGHHQIHUPHGDGHVPRQRJpQLFDVHVPiV VHQFLOORHQSULQFLSLRTXHHOGHHQIHUPHGDGHVFRPSOHMDVHQODVTXHHOHIHFWRGH XQ JHQ SXHGH DSDUHFHU HQPDVFDUDGR SRU IDFWRUHV PHGLRDPELHQWDOHVRSRUOD SUHVHQFLD GH RWURV JHQHV TXH WDPELpQ LQIOX\HQ HQ HO FDUiFWHU 7(5:,//,*(5\ *g5,1* 7+20621 3RU RWUR ODGR OD UHDOL]DFLyQ GH XQ DQiOLVLV GH OLJDPLHQWR HQ IDPLOLDV UHTXLHUH DVXPLU XQ PRGHOR JHQpWLFR SUHFLVR 6H GHEH HVSHFLILFDUHOPRGRGHKHUHQFLDODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV\ODSHQHWUDQFLDGHFDGD
,QWURGXFFLyQ JHQRWLSR6LVHDVXPHTXHODSHQHWUDQFLDHVEDMDSXHGHKDEHUXQDGLVPLQXFLyQ HQODSRWHQFLDSDUDGHWHFWDUHOOLJDPLHQWR(VWHSUREOHPDVHDJUDYDHQHOFDVRGH XQDHQIHUPHGDGFRPSOHMDSXHVWRTXHHQODPD\RUtDGHORVFDVRVQRHVSRVLEOH DVXPLUQLQJ~QPRGHORGHKHUHQFLDHVSHFtILFR&$5'21\%(//675$&+$1\ 5($' (O WpUPLQR GH ³HQIHUPHGDGHV FRPSOHMDV´ VH UHILHUH D FXDOTXLHU HQIHUPHGDGTXHQRH[KLEHXQDKHUHQFLDGRPLQDQWHRUHFHVLYDPHQGHOLDQDFOiVLFD DWULEXLEOHDXQ~QLFRORFXVSXGLHQGRLQFOXLUVHORVORFLGHSHQHWUDQFLDLQFRPSOHWD IHQRFRSLDV \ KHUHQFLD SROLJpQLFD /$1'(5\6&+25. .58*/<$.\/$1'(5 (VWDVHQIHUPHGDGHVFRPSOHMDVHVWiQGHWHUPLQDGDVSRUXQQ~PHURYDULDEOH GHIDFWRUHVJHQpWLFRV\DPELHQWDOHVGHPD\RURPHQRUHIHFWR6&+25.$Vt SDUD GHWHFWDU SHTXHxRV HIHFWRV GH JHQHV LQGLYLGXDOHV VH QHFHVLWD R VXILFLHQWH SRWHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFDRDOJXQDIRUPDGHHYDOXDUORVORFLFROHFWLYDPHQWH/21*0$7( 5,6&+\0(5,.$1*$6FRQVLGHUDURQODHVWUDWHJLDGHDVRFLDFLyQHQXQ VLVWHPD GH XQ ORFXV FRQ GRV DOHORV \ FRQFOX\HURQ TXH ORV WHVWV GH DVRFLDFLyQ WLHQHQVXILFLHQWHSRWHQFLDSDUDGHWHFWDUHIHFWRVPRGHVWRVGHORFLLQGLYLGXDOHVHQ GHVyUGHQHVFRPSOHMRV 8QRGHORVREVWiFXORVFRQORVHVWXGLRVGHDVRFLDFLyQHVODJUDQFDQWLGDGGH IDOVRVSRVLWLYRVTXHVHSURGXFHQ([LVWHQHQODOLWHUDWXUDJUDQFDQWLGDGGHHVWXGLRV GHDVRFLDFLyQ TXH QR KDQ SRGLGR VHUFRUURERUDGRV7(5:,//,*(5\:(,66 :(,66\7(5:,//,*(5 &$5'21\%(// ,2$11,',6HW DO (QWUHODVUD]RQHVSDUDHVWDIDOWDGHUHSURGXFLELOLGDGVHHQFXHQWUDXQDLQDGHFXDGD VHOHFFLyQ GHO JUXSR FRQWURO /D VHOHFFLyQ GH ORV FRQWUROHV HV FUXFLDO SRUTXH FXDOTXLHUGLIHUHQFLDVLVWHPiWLFDHQODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVHQWUHORVHQIHUPRV\ORV FRQWUROHV SXHGH DSDUHFHU FRPR DVRFLDFLyQ FRQ OD HQIHUPHGDG &XDQGR H[LVWHQ GLIHUHQWHVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVHQWUHHOJUXSRFRQWURO\ORVHQIHUPRVHOUHVXOWDGR GHO DQiOLVLV GH DVRFLDFLyQ SXHGH VHU VLJQLILFDWLYR SHUR QR UHODFLRQDGR FRQ OD SUHVHQFLDGHODOHORGHODHQIHUPHGDGHQHVDUHJLyQGHOJHQRPD'HHVWDPDQHUD OD DVRFLDFLyQ GHWHFWDGD VHUtD HVS~UHD GDGR TXH VH GHEHUtD D OD HVWUXFWXUDFLyQ SREODFLRQDO VXE\DFHQWH &+$.5$%257< \:(,66 35,7&+$5'\526(1%(5* &$5'21\%(//$5'/,(HWDO/2+08(//(5HWDO$VtHV QHFHVDULRTXHODVIUHFXHQFLDVJHQRWtSLFDVREVHUYDGDVHQODV PXHVWUDVFRQWURO\
,QWURGXFFLyQ SRWHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD SDUD GHWHFWDU '* VRQ FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV PX\ GHVHDEOHV D OD KRUD GH HOHJLU HO PDUFDGRU JHQpWLFR PiV DSURSLDGR (Q OR TXH UHVSHFWDDORV PLFURVDWpOLWHVVHGLVSRQHGHXQQ~PHUREDVWDQWHHOHYDGRORFDOL]DGRVSRUWRGRHO JHQRPDHQWUH\\VXVLVWHPDGHJHQRWLSDGRHVDSULRULVHQFLOOR PHGLDQWHDPSOLILFDFLyQSRU3&5(QFDPELRORV613VVRQPXFKRPiVQXPHURVRV \HQORV~OWLPRVDxRVKDQVXUJLGRJUDQFDQWLGDGGHFRQVRUFLRVHQFDUJDGRVGHOD FDUDFWHUL]DFLyQ GH QXHYRV 613V HQ GLIHUHQWHV SREODFLRQHV 76& 7KH 613 &RQVRUWLXP KWWSVQSFVKORUJ GH PDQHUD TXH SRGUtDPRV GLVSRQHU GH XQ 613 FDGDSE)25721HWDO/DVWpFQLFDVDFWXDOHVGHJHQRWLSDGRWLHQHQXQD HOHYDGD FDSDFLGDG SDUD SURFHVDU JUDQ FDQWLGDG GH 613V HQ SRFR WLHPSR $GHPiV OD LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ GH ORV JHQRWLSRV SDUD ORV 613V HV PiV VHQFLOOD TXH SDUD ORFL PLFURVDWpOLWHV GDGR TXH VyOR SUHVHQWDQ GRV DOHORV \ OD SRVLELOLGDG GH FRPHWHUXQHUURUGHJHQRWLSDGRHVPHQRU9,*1$/HWDO (VWRV PDUFDGRUHV SUHVHQWDQ GLIHUHQFLDV HQ VX SRWHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD SDUD GHWHFWDUHO'*$HVWHUHVSHFWR277\5$%,12:,7=DERUGDURQHOHVWXGLRGHO HIHFWRGHODKHWHUR]LJRVLGDGGHOPDUFDGRUHQODSRWHQFLDSDUDGHWHFWDU'*(VWRV DXWRUHV FRQFOX\HURQ TXH OD SRWHQFLD SDUD GHWHFWDU'* DXPHQWD FRQ XQD PD\RU KHWHUR]LJRVLGDG GH ORV PDUFDGRUHV LPSOLFDGRV (Q OD PLVPD OtQHD &+$30$1\ :,-60$1 ;,21*\-,1\6+$0HW DO FRQFOX\HURQ TXH PDUFDGRUHV DOWDPHQWH SROLPyUILFRV PLFURVDWpOLWHV WLHQHQ PD\RU SRWHQFLD TXH PDUFDGRUHV ELDOpOLFRV 613V HQ OD GHWHFFLyQ GHO '* 3DUD DOFDQ]DU OD PLVPD SRWHQFLDFRQPDUFDGRUHVELDOpOLFRVTXHFRQPXOWLDOpOLFRVVHUHTXHULUtDXQWDPDxR GH PXHVWUD PXFKR PD\RU \ XQ HVSDFLDGR HQWUH PDUFDGRUHV PHQRU TXH HQ HO PLVPRHVWXGLRFRQPDUFDGRUHVPXOWLDOpOLFRV&+$30$1\:,-60$1$GHPiV ORV PLFURVDWpOLWHV GH HOHYDGD KHWHUR]LJRVLGDG SXHGHQ VHU LQIRUPDWLYRV SDUD ORFDOL]DU YDULDQWHV UDUDV GH HQIHUPHGDGHV PLHQWUDV TXH ORV 613V FRPXQHV XWLOL]DGRVHQODPD\RUtDGHORVWUDEDMRVVyORVHUtDQFDSDFHVGHORFDOL]DUYDULDQWHV FRPXQHV35,7&+$5'35,7&+$5'\&2;9$5,/2HWDO+DVWDHO PRPHQWRQRH[LVWHXQDFXHUGRFODURDFHUFDGHOWLSRGHPDUFDGRUPiVDGHFXDGR SDUDUHDOL]DUHVWXGLRVGH'*$VtORVPDUFDGRUHVPLFURVDWpOLWHVSDUHFHQVHUPiV LQIRUPDWLYRV TXH ORV 613V SDUD OD GHWHFFLyQ GHO '* VLQ HPEDUJR OD PD\RU
,QWURGXFFLyQ FDQWLGDG GH 613V \ VX D SULRUL PHQRU WDVD GH HUURUHV HQ HO JHQRWLSDGR LPSOLFDUtDQTXHVHUtDSRVLEOHREWHQHUXQSDWUyQGH'*SUHFLVRXWLOL]DQGR613VD XQDPD\RUGHQVLGDGHQHOJHQRPD2+$6+,\72.81$*$ $FWXDOPHQWH OD OLWHUDWXUD HVWi UHSOHWD GH HVWXGLRV TXH FDUDFWHUL]DQ OD H[WHQVLyQ H LQWHQVLGDG GHO '* GH EDFNJURXQG D ODUJDV \ FRUWDV GLVWDQFLDV XWLOL]DQGRPDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV FRQGLQiPLFDVHYROXWLYDV PX\ GLIHUHQWHV FRPR VRQORVPLFURVDWpOLWHV3(7(5621HWDO&528$852<HWDO7,6+.2)) HWDO/$$1\3bb%27,6+.2))HWDO+877/(<HWDO($9(6 HWDO*25'21HWDO7,6+.2))HWDO:,/621\*2/'67(,1 02+/.(HWDO6(59,&(HWDO=$3$7$HW DOE+$//HWDO 5<%,&.,HWDO $8/&+(1.2HW DO \ ORV 613V%211(1HW DO '811,1*HWDO(,6(1%$57+HWDO0$57,1HWDO02))$77HWDO 7$,//210,//(5HWDO(,6(1%$57+HWDO5(,&+HWDO7,5(7 HWDO&/$5.HWDO6+,)0$1HWDO&$5/621HWDO.(HWDO 76812'$HWDO7DPELpQVHKDQUHDOL]DGRWUDEDMRVFRPELQDQGRGDWRV GHPLFURVDWpOLWHV\GDWRVGH613V=$9$77$5,HWDO$%(&$6,6HWDO .$(660$11HWDO9$5,/2HWDO6LQHPEDUJRHQHVWRVWUDEDMRVQRVH FRQVLGHUyODSRVLELOLGDGGHTXHXQDSDUWHGHO'*GHEDFNJURXQGGHWHFWDGRIXHVH GHELGRDODVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSDUWLFXODUHVGHFDGDWLSRGHPDUFDGRU$GHPiVHVWH '*GHSHQGLHQWHGHPDUFDGRUSRGUtDVHULPSRUWDQWHSDUDHOGLVHxRHLQWHUSUHWDFLyQ GHORVHVWXGLRVGHORFDOL]DFLyQGHJHQHVGHHQIHUPHGDGHVPHGLDQWH'* /D LGHQWLILFDFLyQ GH JHQHV LPSOLFDGRV HQ HQIHUPHGDGHV FRPXQHV GH FDUiFWHUFRPSOHMRHQKXPDQRVGHSHQGHGHO'*H[LVWHQWHHQWUHHOFDUiFWHU\ORV PDUFDGRUHVDQDOL]DGRV$VtHOQ~PHURGHPDUFDGRUHVQHFHVDULRVSDUDUHDOL]DUXQ HVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQDORODUJRGHWRGRHOJHQRPDGHSHQGHGHODGLVWDQFLDKDVWD ODTXHVHSXHGHGHWHFWDUHO'*'HORVHVWXGLRVGH'*HQWUHORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHVVH SXHGH H[WUDHU OD FRQFOXVLyQ GH TXH pVWH VH H[WLHQGH D JUDQGHV GLVWDQFLDV WtSLFDPHQWHGH YDULDVPHJDEDVHV($9(6HW DO 35,7&+$5'\35=(:256., .$833,HWDO3(7(5621HWDOIXHURQORVSULPHURVHQHVWXGLDU HO '* GH EDFNJURXQG FRQ ORFL PLFURVDWpOLWHV D OR ODUJR GH XQD UHJLyQ H[WHQVD
,QWURGXFFLyQ H[DPLQDQGR PLFURVDWpOLWHV HQ YDULDV UHJLRQHV GHO FURPRVRPD FRQXQD PXHVWUD GH SREODFLyQ ILQODQGHVD \ REWXYLHURQ '* D OR ODUJR GH GLVWDQFLDV VXSHULRUHVDF0R0E0XFKRVRWURVWUDEDMRVFRQORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHVREWXYLHURQ '* D GLVWDQFLDV VXSHULRUHV GH F0 ($9(6HW DO *25'21HW DO :,/621\*2/'67(,1 02+/.(HW DO6(59,&(HW DO+$//HW DO .$(660$11HW DO $8/&+(1.2HW DO =$3$7$HW DO E REWXYLHURQ '* D OR ODUJR GH OD UHJLyQ WHORPpULFD GHO FURPRVRPD HQWUH ORFL PLFURVDWpOLWHVVHSDUDGRVSRUGLVWDQFLDVKDVWDGHF0R0EFRQXQSURPHGLR GH F0 /D PD\RU FDQWLGDG GH DVRFLDFLRQHV VLJQLILFDWLYDV REVHUYDGDV HQWUH PLFURVDWpOLWHVVHSDUDGRVSRUJUDQGHVGLVWDQFLDVUHVSHFWRDHVWXGLRVSUHYLRVVH GHEtDDODXWLOL]DFLyQGHHVWLPDVPiVILDEOHVGHORVQLYHOHVGH'*DORODUJRGHXQD UHJLyQ TXH DGHPiV RIUHFtDQ XQD PD\RU SRWHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD (VWRV DXWRUHV HVWLPDURQ OD LQWHQVLGDG \ VLJQLILFDFLyQ GHO '* FRQVLGHUDQGR H[FOXVLYDPHQWH ODV DVRFLDFLRQHVGHVLJQRSRVLWLYRGHELGRDVXPHQRUYDULDQ]DGHPXHVWUHR\PD\RU SRWHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFDSDUDVHUGHWHFWDGDVSRUXQWHVWGHVLJQLILFDFLyQ%52:1 =$3$7$HWDODE(QHVWHWUDEDMRGDGRTXHGHWHFWDURQ'*LQFOXVRHQWUHORV PLFURVDWpOLWHVDQDOL]DGRVPiVDOHMDGRVHQWUHVtQRVHHVWDEOHFLyXQOtPLWHPi[LPR SDUD OD H[WHQVLyQ GHO '* HQWUH SDUHV GH PLFURVDWpOLWHV 3RU OR WDQWR VH KDFH QHFHVDULRXQHVWXGLRHPSOHDQGRODPLVPDPHWRGRORJtDGHHVWLPDFLyQGHO'*HQ XQDUHJLyQPiVH[WHQVDTXHODDQDOL]DGDSRU=$3$7$HWDOESDUDWUDWDUGH DYHULJXDUODGLVWDQFLDPi[LPDDODTXHHVSRVLEOHGHWHFWDU'*RVLHVRVSDWURQHV GH'*VHH[WLHQGHQSRUWRGRHOEUD]RFURPRVyPLFR =$3$7$HW DO E REVHUYDURQ DGHPiV TXH ORV SDWURQHV GH '* GHSHQGtDQ GH ORV DOHORV LPSOLFDGRV 0HGLDQWH HO DQiOLVLV GHO '* LQWHUDOpOLFR SRVLWLYRHQWUHSDUHVGHDOHORVGHORVPLFURVDWpOLWHVREVHUYDURQTXHORVDOHORVPiV UDURV\GHWDPDxRH[WUHPRWHQGtDQDSUHVHQWDU'*PiVIUHFXHQWHPHQWHTXHORV DOHORV UHVWDQWHV (VWH '* GHSHQGLHQWH GH DOHOR WLHQH LPSOLFDFLRQHV SDUD OD ORFDOL]DFLyQGHJHQHVLPSOLFDGRVHQHQIHUPHGDGHV(VWXGLRVSRVWHULRUHVGHEHUiQ FRUURERUDUHVWRVSDWURQHVGHSHQGLHQWHVGHDOHORSDUDUHJLRQHVFURPRVyPLFDVPiV H[WHQVDV\GLIHUHQWHVSREODFLRQHV
,QWURGXFFLyQ /RV HVWXGLRV GH '* GH EDFNJURXQG UHDOL]DGRV HQWUH SDUHV GH 613V QR HQFXHQWUDQDVRFLDFLRQHVVLJQLILFDWLYDVDWDQODUJDVGLVWDQFLDVFRPRRFXUUtDHQWUH SDUHV GH PLFURVDWpOLWHV .58*/<$. SUHGLMR PHGLDQWH XQ HVWXGLR GH VLPXODFLyQTXHHO'*~WLOSDUDUHDOL]DUXQHVWXGLRGHPDSHRHQ WRGRHOJHQRPD FRQ 613V QR VH H[WHQGHUtD PiV DOOi GH NE HQ OD SREODFLyQ JHQHUDO 'H HVWD PDQHUDKDUtDQIDOWDGHORUGHQGH613VSDUDXQHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQD QLYHO GH WRGR HO JHQRPD 3HUR VLPXODFLRQHV SRVWHULRUHV &2//,16HW DO \ REVHUYDFLRQHV HPStULFDV KDQ GHPRVWUDGR TXH HVWD REVHUYDFLyQ HUD GHPDVLDGR SHVLPLVWD%2(+1.(277:(,66\7(5:,//,*(5$Vt'811,1*HW DOHQFRQWUDURQTXHORVSDUHVGH613VVHSDUDGRVKDVWDNEPRVWUDEDQ '* VLJQLILFDWLYR $%(&$6,6HW DO H[DPLQDQGR HO '* HQ WUHV UHJLRQHV FURPRVyPLFDVHQSREODFLyQGHO5HLQR8QLGR\QyUGLFRVHXURSHRVREWXYLHURQXQ GH 613V HQ '* VHSDUDGRV SRU GLVWDQFLDV GH KDVWD NE \ WDPELpQ HQ DOJXQRV SDUHV GH 613V VHSDUDGRV SRU GLVWDQFLDV GH NE (VWRV GDWRV VRQ FRQVLVWHQWHVFRQRWURVWUDEDMRVGRQGHVHREVHUYDTXHHO'*HQWUHSDUHVGH613V VHH[WLHQGHDGLVWDQFLDVFRQVLGHUDEOHVFRPRYDULRVFLHQWRVGHNLOREDVHV&/$5. HWDO&2//,16HWDO5,('(5HWDO02))$77HWDO7$,//21 0,//(5HWDO7(03/(721HWDO5(,&+HWDO76812'$HWDO /RV GLIHUHQWHV UHVXOWDGRV UHIOHMDGRV HQ OD OLWHUDWXUD HQWUH 613V \ HQWUH PLFURVDWpOLWHVSDUHFHQLQGLFDUXQFRPSRUWDPLHQWRSDUWLFXODUGHFDGDXQRIUHQWHDO '*(VWRVPDUFDGRUHVVHXWLOL]DQPX\IUHFXHQWHPHQWHHQHVWXGLRVGH'*SHURVH GHVFRQRFH OD LQIOXHQFLD TXH SRGUtD HMHUFHU ODV FDUDFWHUtVWLFDV SURSLDV GH FDGD PDUFDGRUHQORVQLYHOHVGHWHFWDGRV$VtODFXDQWLILFDFLyQGHODFDQWLGDGGH'*GH EDFNJURXQGSRGUtDYHUVHGLVWRUVLRQDGDGHELGRDODH[LVWHQFLDGH'*GHSHQGLHQWH GHPDUFDGRU6RQHVFDVRVORVWUDEDMRVSUHVHQWHVHQODOLWHUDWXUDTXHHVWXGLHQORV SDWURQHVGHO'*HQWUHSDUHV613V\HQWUHSDUHVGHPLFURVDWpOLWHVFRQODPLVPD PXHVWUD \ HQ OD PLVPDUHJLyQ FURPRVyPLFD 6&+8/=(HW DO 9$5,/2HW DO 7$1$.$HWDO(VWRVWUDEDMRVLQIRUPDQGHXQDPD\RUH[WHQVLyQGHODV DVRFLDFLRQHV HQWUH SDUHV GH PLFURVDWpOLWHV TXH HQWUH SDUHV GH 613V SUREDEOHPHQWHGHELGRDXQDPD\RUSRWHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFDSDUDGHWHFWDU'*FRQORFL PXOWLDOpOLFRV 6LQ HPEDUJR QR WXYLHURQ HQ FXHQWD HO HIHFWR GHO PDUFDGRU HQ ORV
,QWURGXFFLyQ QLYHOHV GH '* REWHQLGRV GH PDQHUD TXH QR VH FRQRFH TXp IUDFFLyQ GH ODV DVRFLDFLRQHVREVHUYDGDVVRQGHELGDVDODGLQiPLFDPXWDFLRQDOSDUWLFXODUGHFDGD XQR $Vt SDUD VHSDUDU HO '* GH EDFNJURXQG GHO '* GHSHQGLHQWH GH PDUFDGRU VHUtD QHFHVDULD XQD FXDQWLILFDFLyQ SRUPHQRUL]DGD GH ORV QLYHOHV GH '* GH EDFNJURXQG SDUD XQD UHJLyQ FURPRVyPLFD GHWHUPLQDGD XWLOL]DQGR PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRVFRQGLQiPLFDVPXWDFLRQDOHVPX\GLIHUHQWHVFRPRVRQORV613V\ORV PLFURVDWpOLWHV$GHPiVODPHWRGRORJtDHVWDGtVWLFDHPSOHDGDGHEHVHUDGHFXDGD SDUDGHWHFWDUGHPDQHUDILDEOHORVQLYHOHVGH'*FRQDPERVWLSRVGHPDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV /D H[WHQVLyQ GHO '* GHSHQGH WDPELpQ GH OD ORFDOL]DFLyQ FURPRVyPLFD +877/(<HWDO7$,//210,//(5HWDO'$/<HWDO*$%5,(/HWDO $Vt SRU HMHPSOR +877/(<HW DO HVWXGLDQGR ORV SDWURQHV GH '* HQWUHSDUHVGHPLFURVDWpOLWHVDORODUJRGHWRGRHOJHQRPDFRQFOX\HURQTXHHO'* HVGHSHQGLHQWHGHODUHJLyQFURPRVyPLFDDQDOL]DGD6XVUHVXOWDGRVHYLGHQFLDURQ '* D GLVWDQFLDV GH KDVWD F0 FRQ XQD FRUUHODFLyQ QHJDWLYD HQWUHpVWH\OD GLVWDQFLD JHQpWLFD DVt FRPR GLIHUHQFLDV HQ OD PDJQLWXG \ GLVWULEXFLyQ GHO '* WDQWRGHQWURGHFDGDFURPRVRPDFRPRHQWUHHOORV,JXDOPHQWH7$,//210,//(5HW DOHVWXGLDQGRORV SDWURQHVGH'* HQWUH SDUHVGH 613VD OR ODUJR GH OD UHJLyQ;T;THYLGHQFLDURQGRVUHJLRQHVGHIXHUWH'*TXHVHH[WHQGtDQDOR ODUJRGH0EGH'1$HQ;T\DORODUJRGHNEHQ;T$GHPiVHVWXGLRV HPStULFRVKDQGHPRVWUDGRXQPD\RUGHFDLPLHQWRGHO'*FRQOD')HQUHJLRQHV WHORPpULFDVUHVSHFWRDUHJLRQHVPiVFHQWURPpULFDV:$7.,16HWDO7,5(7HW DO (OPDQWHQLPLHQWRGH XQDFRUUHODFLyQQHJDWLYDHQWUHOD GLVWDQFLDItVLFD\ OD LQWHQVLGDG GHO '* HV XQ SXQWR FUtWLFR SDUD SRGHU UHDOL]DU HVWXGLRV GH '* SDUD ORFDOL]DUJHQHVGHHQIHUPHGDGHV$VtVHJ~QODWHRUtDJHQpWLFRSREODFLRQDOHO'* GLVPLQX\H DO DXPHQWDU OD IUHFXHQFLD GH UHFRPELQDFLyQ HQWUH ORV SDUHV GH PDUFDGRUHVDQDOL]DGRVRHQWUHHOPDUFDGRU\HOJHQLPSOLFDGRHQODHQIHUPHGDG TXHVHWUDWDGHORFDOL]DU+,//\52%(57621-25'('HHVWDIRUPDORV PDUFDGRUHVPiVFHUFDQRVDOJHQLPSOLFDGRHQODHQIHUPHGDGPDQLIHVWDUiQPD\RU
,QWURGXFFLyQ FDQWLGDGGHDVRFLDFLRQHVQRDOD]DUTXHDTXHOORVPiVDOHMDGRV-25'(HWDO -25'(ORTXHQRVGDUiXQDLGHDGHODORFDOL]DFLyQGHODPXWDFLyQLPSOLFDGD HQ OD HQIHUPHGDG 3HUR H[LVWH XQD YDULHGDG GH IHQyPHQRV TXH SXHGHQ DOWHUDU HVWD UHODFLyQ QHJDWLYD $Vt HQWUH HVWRV IDFWRUHV VH LQFOX\H HO WLSR GH PDUFDGRU JHQpWLFRXWLOL]DGRMXQWRFRQODHGDGGHODVPXWDFLRQHVPH]FODGHSREODFLRQHV GHULYDJHQpWLFDFRQYHUVLyQJpQLFDVHOHFFLyQ\GHVYLDFLRQHVGHODSDUHDPLHQWRDO D]DU/,77\-25'(7+203621HWDO-25'(HWDO'811,1* HWDO-25'(HWDOREWXYLHURQXQDFRUUHODFLyQQHJDWLYDHQWUHHO'*\ OD GLVWDQFLD ItVLFD SDUD SDUHV GH PDUFDGRUHV VHSDUDGRV SRU PiV GH NE $ PHQRUHVGLVWDQFLDVODYDULDFLyQGHO'*SDUHFtD HVWDUPHQRVUHODFLRQDGDFRQOD IUHFXHQFLDGHUHFRPELQDFLyQ\DTXHIDFWRUHVFRPRODPXWDFLyQRODFRQYHUVLyQ JpQLFDSRGUtDQHVWDUSHUWXUEDQGRHOSDWUyQGH'*7DPSRFR6+,)0$1HWDO REWXYLHURQFRUUHODFLyQHQWUHHO'*\OD')DFRUWDVGLVWDQFLDV6LQHPEDUJRRWURV WUDEDMRVFRPRHOGH'811,1*HWDO\02))$77HWDOHQWUHRWURVVt HQFRQWUDURQFRUUHODFLyQDFRUWDVGLVWDQFLDV /RVHVWXGLRVWHyULFRVKDQVXJHULGRTXHHO'*HVDOWDPHQWHGHSHQGLHQWHGH ODKLVWRULDHYROXWLYDSREODFLRQDO6/$7.,1GHPDQHUDTXHODVSREODFLRQHVGH UiSLGR FUHFLPLHQWR PRVWUDUtDQ XQ PHQRU '* GH EDFNJURXQG UHVSHFWR D ODV SREODFLRQHVGHWDPDxRFRQVWDQWH(VWDWHRUtDIXHFRPSUREDGDH[SHULPHQWDOPHQWH PHGLDQWHFRPSDUDFLyQGHORVSDWURQHVGH'*UHVXOWDQWHVFRQVLHWHPLFURVDWpOLWHV GHO FURPRVRPD ; (VWRV SDWURQHV VH HVWXGLDURQ HQ FXDWUR SREODFLRQHV \ VH HQFRQWUy TXH OD SREODFLyQ GH WDPDxR FRQVWDQWH PRVWUDED '* D PD\RUHV GLVWDQFLDVKDVWDF0UHVSHFWRDODVWUHVSREODFLRQHVGHH[SDQVLyQUiSLGDHQ ODV TXH DSHQDV VH HQFRQWUDED '* LQFOXVR HQWUH ORFL SUy[LPRV /$$1\3bb%2 /DKLVWRULDGHPRJUiILFDGHXQDSREODFLyQSRGUtDSUHGHFLUODXWLOLGDGUHODWLYD GHXQDSREODFLyQSDUDHOPDSHRSRU'*GHORFLLPSOLFDGRVHQHQIHUPHGDGHV$Vt ORV DOHORV TXH OOHYDQ PXWDFLRQHV GH XQD HQIHUPHGDG JHQHUDGDV GXUDQWH XQD UiSLGDH[SDQVLyQSREODFLRQDOHVWDUiQURGHDGRVSRUUHJLRQHVGHXQHOHYDGR'*DO KDEHU WHQLGR SRFR WLHPSR SDUD TXH DFWXDUD OD UHFRPELQDFLyQ 3RU HO FRQWUDULR
,QWURGXFFLyQ HVWDVSREODFLRQHVPRVWUDUiQEDMRVQLYHOHVGH'*GHEDFNJURXQG6/$7.,1 $VtODVSREODFLRQHVTXHKDQVXIULGRXQDH[SDQVLyQUHFLHQWHFRPRODILQODQGHVD VRQPiVDGHFXDGDVSDUDHOPDSHRGHHQIHUPHGDGHVPRQRJpQLFDVFDXVDGDVSRU PXWDFLRQHV UHFLHQWHV '(/$&+$3(//(\:5,*+7 TXH SREODFLRQHV GH WDPDxRFRQVWDQWHFRPRODSREODFLyQVDDPL(QFDPELRODVLWXDFLyQSDUHFHVHUDO FRQWUDULR HQ FXDQWR D ODV HQIHUPHGDGHV FRPSOHMDV VH UHILHUH /RV DOHORV GH VXVFHSWLELOLGDG D HVWDV HQIHUPHGDGHV JHQHUDOPHQWH FRPXQHV \ DQWLJXRV HQ OD SREODFLyQ HVWDUiQ URGHDGRV SRU iUHDV H[WHQVDV GH '* RULJLQDGR SRU GHULYD JHQpWLFD HQ SREODFLRQHV GH WDPDxR FRQVWDQWH (Q FDPELR PRVWUDUiQ PX\ SRFR '* HQ SREODFLRQHV GH UHFLHQWH H[SDQVLyQ GRQGH OD DFFLyQ GH OD GHULYD HV LQVLJQLILFDQWH 6/$7.,1 /$$1\3bb%2 7(5:,//,*(5HW DO 125'%25*\7$9$5e8QDYHQWDMDLQGLVFXWLEOHGHODVSREODFLRQHVDLVODGDV GH SHTXHxR WDPDxR HV TXH OD HQIHUPHGDG GH HVWXGLR SUHVHQWDUi XQD KHWHURJHQHLGDGJHQpWLFDPHQRUGHPDQHUDTXHODORFDOL]DFLyQGHODVYDULDQWHVGH VXVFHSWLELOLGDGDODHQIHUPHGDGH[LVWHQWHVHQHVDSREODFLyQVHUiPiVVHQFLOODDO UHGXFLUVH HO Q~PHUR GH ORFL SRWHQFLDOPHQWH LPSOLFDGRV HQ OD HQIHUPHGDG +b67%$&.$HW DO .58*/<$.6+()),(/'HW DO :5,*+7HW DO :(,66\7(5:,//,*(5 (QJHQHUDOHO'*FRQORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHV\FRQ613VVHH[WLHQGHDPD\RUHV GLVWDQFLDV HQ SREODFLRQHV DLVODGDV GH SHTXHxR WDPDxR TXH VH KDQ PDQWHQLGR HVWDEOHV GXUDQWH ODUJR WLHPSR &528$852<HW DO /$$1\3bb%2 *25'21HWDO-25'(HWDO:,/621\*2/'67(,1=$9$77$5,HWDO 5(,&+HW DO +$//HW DO .$(660$11HW DO 9$5,/2\ 3(/721(1$XQTXHH[LVWHQWUDEDMRVFRQPLFURVDWpOLWHV\FRQ613VHQORV TXHQRVHREVHUYDQGLIHUHQFLDVHQHOSDWUyQGH'*HQWUHSREODFLRQHVDLVODGDVHQ H[SDQVLyQ\SREODFLRQHVJUDQGHVFRQDSDUHDPLHQWRDOHDWRULR($9(6HWDO 7$,//210,//(5HWDO $SHVDUGHODDSDUHQWHFRPSOHMLGDGGHORVSDWURQHVGH'*REVHUYDGRVHQ ODV GLIHUHQWHV SREODFLRQHV HVWXGLRV UHFLHQWHV KDQ SURSXHVWR TXH OD HVWUXFWXUD VXE\DFHQWHGHO'*HQHOJHQRPDKXPDQRVHSXHGHGHVFULELUXVDQGRXQPDUFRGH
,QWURGXFFLyQ WUDEDMRUHODWLYDPHQWHVHQFLOORHQHOFXDOHO'*VHGLVWULEX\HDORODUJRGHOJHQRPD HQ EORTXHV KDSORWtSLFRV GLVFUHWRV GH KDVWD NE GRQGH HO '* GHFDH PX\ OHQWDPHQWHFRQODGLVWDQFLD'$/<HWDO3$7,/HWDO*2/'67(,1 '$:621HW DO *$%5,(/HWDO :$//\35,7&+$5' D E 6H KD REVHUYDGR TXH ORV EORTXHV FRQWLJXRV HVWiQ VHSDUDGRV HQWUH Vt SRU SXQWRV FDOLHQWHV GH UHFRPELQDFLyQ GRQGH HO '* GHFDH UiSLGDPHQWH FRQ ODGLVWDQFLD -())5(<6HW DO .$833,HW DO 3+,//,36HW DO 67803)\ *2/'67(,1$GHPiVDOJXQRVWUDEDMRVKDQVXJHULGRTXHVHGHEHWHQHUHQ FXHQWD OD KLVWRULD SREODFLRQDO DVt FRPR OD KHWHURJHQHLGDG HQ ODV WDVDV GH UHFRPELQDFLyQ ORFDOHV SDUD FRPSUHQGHU HO RULJHQ GH ORV EORTXHV KDSORWtSLFRV 5(,&+HW DO :$1*HW DO 3+,//,36HW DO =+$1*HW DO $1'(5621\6/$7.,1'HHVWDPDQHUDORVEORTXHVKDSORWtSLFRVSRGUtDQVHU PHQRVIUHFXHQWHVRGHPD\RUWDPDxRGHELGRDODIXVLyQGHEORTXHVHQWUHVtHQ SREODFLRQHVTXHKDQVXIULGRSURIXQGRVFXHOORVGHERWHOODHQODVFXDOHVHO'*VH H[WLHQGHPiVDOOiGHORVSXQWRVFDOLHQWHVGHUHFRPELQDFLyQ*$%5,(/HWDO 67803)\*2/'67(,1:$//\35,7&+$5' (OPRGHOR GHEORTXHVKDSORWtSLFRVWLHQHLPSRUWDQWHVLPSOLFDFLRQHV SDUDOD ORFDOL]DFLyQ GH JHQHV PHGLDQWH HVWXGLRV GH DVRFLDFLyQ \D TXH ODV IXHUWHV DVRFLDFLRQHV HQWUH 613V HQ FDGD EORTXH KDSORWtSLFR VXJLHUHQ OD SRVLELOLGDG GH SRGHUJHQRWLSDUVyORXQRVSRFRVTXHSURSRUFLRQHQLQIRUPDFLyQDFHUFDGHOUHVWR GH 613V HQ HVD UHJLyQ R EORTXH KDSORWtSLFR $Vt ORV SULQFLSDOHV KDSORWLSRV HQ FDGD EORTXH SRGUtDQ HWLTXHWDUVH FRQ XQ SHTXHxR Q~PHUR GH 613V KDSORW\SH WDJJLQJ 613V R KW613V -2+1621HW DO GH PDQHUD TXH VH UHGXFLUtD HO Q~PHURWRWDOGH613VQHFHVDULRSDUDUHDOL]DUXQHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQDORODUJR GHWRGRHOJHQRPD$GHPiVODH[WHQVLyQGHO'*YDUtDGUDPiWLFDPHQWHDORODUJR GHOJHQRPD'$/<HWDO-())5(<6HWDO5(,&+HWDO*$%5,(/HW DO '$:621HW DO SRU OR TXH QR VHUtD HILFLHQWH HO XVR GH 613V VHOHFFLRQDGRVDOHDWRULDPHQWHRLQFOXVRUHJXODUPHQWHHVSDFLDGRVSDUDUHDOL]DUXQ HVWXGLR GH DVRFLDFLyQ D OR ODUJR GH WRGR HO JHQRPD (Q HVWH VHQWLGR VH KD SURSXHVWR TXH OD ORFDOL]DFLyQ GH JHQHV FRQ KDSORWLSRV HV PiV SRWHQWH TXH FRQ 613VLQGLYLGXDOHV5,28;HWDO67(3+(16HWDO
,QWURGXFFLyQ 0RWLYDGRSRUORVHVWXGLRVDQWHULRUHVVHKDGHVDUUROODGRHQORV~OWLPRVDxRV HOSUR\HFWR+DS0DSIRUPDOPHQWHLQLFLDGRHQSRUJUXSRVGHLQYHVWLJDFLyQGH FXDWURFRQWLQHQWHV(OREMHWLYRHVFDUDFWHUL]DUORVSDWURQHVGH'*HQWUH613VDOR ODUJRGHWRGRHOJHQRPDHQSREODFLRQHVGHÈIULFD$VLD\(XURSDFRQHOILQGH IDFLOLWDUORVHVWXGLRVGHDVRFLDFLyQSDUDHOGHVFXEULPLHQWRGHJHQHVLPSOLFDGRVHQ HQIHUPHGDGHVFRPSOHMDVHQ KXPDQRV6&+8/=(HW DO7+(,17(51$7,21$/ +$30$3&216257,80=$3$7$HWDO (/&$62'(/$2726&/(526,6 /D RWRVFOHURVLV FOtQLFD HV XQ WLSR GH VRUGHUD GH FRQGXFFLyQTXH DSDUHFH HQWUHODVHJXQGD\WHUFHUDGpFDGDGHYLGDFDXVDGDSRUXQDUHDEVRUFLyQyVHD\ UHSRVLFLyQ GH WHMLGR yVHR DQRUPDO HQ OD FDSD HQGRFRQGUDO GHO KXHVR WHPSRUDO FiSVXODyWLFD0255,621*25'210(1*(57$1*((OIRFR RWRVFOHUyWLFR LQFLSLHQWH HVWi FRQVWLWXLGR VREUH WRGR SRU RVWHRFODVWRV TXH GHVWUX\HQHOKXHVRODPLQDUPDGXUR3RVWHULRUPHQWHORVRVWHREODVWRVUHDOL]DQXQD UHSRVLFLyQGHKXHVRHQHVDViUHDVSHURFRQXQSDWUyQFHOXODU\ILEULODUDQRUPDO(O OXJDUSUHGLOHFWRSDUDODDSDULFLyQGHOIRFRRWRVFOHUyWLFRHVODUHJLyQGHODFiSVXOD yWLFD DOUHGHGRU GH OD YHQWDQD RYDO HVWR HVHQ OD EDVH GHO HVWULER 0(1*(5 7$1*((OHVWULERHVHO~OWLPRGHORVHOHPHQWRVTXHFRPSRQHQODFDGHQDGH KXHVHFLOORVHQHORtGRPHGLRFX\DIXQFLyQHVFRQGXFLUHOVRQLGRGHVGHHOWtPSDQR KDVWD OD YHQWDQD RYDO YpDVH OD ILJXUD $O IRUPDUVH HO IRFR RWRVFOHUyWLFR VH SURGXFH OD ILMDFLyQ GHO HVWULER D OD YHQWDQD RYDO \ DVt QR HV FDSD] GH FRQGXFLU FRUUHFWDPHQWH HO VRQLGR DO RtGR LQWHUQR GHVHQFDGHQiQGRVH XQD KLSRDFXVLD GH FRQGXFFLyQ /D DSDULFLyQ GH KLSRDFXVLD QHXURVHQVRULDO RFXUUH FXDQGR OD RWRVFOHURVLV GLIXQGH DO RtGR LQWHUQR \ HQ HVWH FDVR VH KDEOD GH RWRVFOHURVLV FRFOHDU0,03XHGHQH[LVWLUIRFRVRWRVFOHUyWLFRVHQRWUDViUHDVTXHQR FRPSURPHWHQDODDXGLFLyQ\HQHVWHFDVRKDEODPRVGHRWRVFOHURVLVKLVWROyJLFD TXHVyORVHSRQH GHPDQLILHVWRHQ DXWRSVLDVFRQ XQD SUHYDOHQFLDGHO± 9$1'(1%2*$(57HWDO
,QWURGXFFLyQ (OFXDGURVLQWRPiWLFRFRPLHQ]DKDELWXDOPHQWHDSDUWLUGHORVDxRVFRQ XQD KLSRDFXVLD GH FRQGXFFLyQ \ PiV UDUD YH] QHXURVHQVRULDO LUUHJXODUPHQWH SURJUHVLYD DFHOHUDGD HQ RFDVLRQHV SRU FLUFXQVWDQFLDV WDOHV FRPR HPEDUD]RV R ODFWDQFLDV/DKLSRDFXVLDHVELODWHUDOHQXQGHORVFDVRVDSUR[LPDGDPHQWH DXQTXHODSpUGLGDVXHOHVHUPD\RUHQHORtGRGRQGHSULPHUDPHQWHVHPDQLIHVWyOD HQIHUPHGDG0255,621*25'210(1*(57$1*( /DRWRVFOHURVLVFOtQLFDVHSUHVHQWDHQODSREODFLyQFRQXQDSUHYDOHQFLDGH ± HQ LQGLYLGXRV GH RULJHQ FDXFDVRLGH *25'21 \ XQD HGDG GH DSDULFLyQ TXH RVFLOD HQWUH ORV \ DxRV 0255,621 )DFWRUHV KRUPRQDOHVSDUHFHQLQIOXLUHQODDSDULFLyQGHODHQIHUPHGDG\DTXHHQODPD\RUtD GHORVHVWXGLRVODSURSRUFLyQGHPXMHUHVDKRPEUHVDIHFWDGRVHVGH/$56621 0255,621 *25'21 %(1 $5$%HW DO 0(1*(5 7$1*( $XQTXH HVWD SURSRUFLyQ SDUHFH GHVDSDUHFHU DO HVWXGLDU ORV FDVRV GH RWRVFOHURVLVKLVWROyJLFD$/70$1HWDO0(1*(57$1*( )LJXUD(VTXHPDUHSUHVHQWDWLYRGHORtGRGRQGHVHVHxDOD ODVLWXDFLyQGHOHVWULERHQ ODFDGHQDGHKXHVHFLOORV HQHORtGRPHGLR
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV ,(9$/8$&,Ï1'(/'(6(48,/,%5,2*$0e7,&2'(3(1',(17('( 0$5&$'25(1S 0DUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRV 3DUD HO HVWXGLR GH ORV QLYHOHV GH '* D OR ODUJR GHO FURPRVRPD S VH XWLOL]DURQ GRV WLSRV GH PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV GLIHUHQWHV PLFURVDWpOLWHV UHSHWLFLRQHV HQ WiQGHP GH QR PiV GH SE \ 613VVLQJOH QXFOHRWLGH SRO\PRUSKLVPVRSROLPRUILVPRVGHXQ~QLFRQXFOHyWLGRFRQHOREMHWRGHFRPSDUDU ORVSDWURQHVUHVXOWDQWHV/RVPLFURVDWpOLWHVFRPRVHPHQFLRQyHQHODSDUWDGRGH LQWURGXFFLyQ VRQ PDUFDGRUHV PXOWLDOpOLFRV \ ORV 613V VRQ JHQHUDOPHQWH ELDOpOLFRV(QHVWHWUDEDMRVHDQDOL]DURQ613VELDOpOLFRV\ORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHV GH UHSHWLFLyQ GLQXFOHRWtGLFD &$Q GLVWULEXLGRV D OR ODUJR GHO EUD]R FRUWR GHO FURPRVRPDS/DILJXUDPXHVWUDVXORFDOL]DFLyQFURPRVyPLFD '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 0LFURVDWpOLWHV ,163VW, ,16'UD,,, '5'6PD, +5$61VL, +$OX, +5VD, 5507DT, +%%+LQI, +%*+LQG,,, $57+SD,, 37+7DT, 7S+'UD,, :7+LQI, 76& 76& 76& 76& 613V 76& )LJXUD/RFDOL]DFLyQFURPRVyPLFDGHORV613V\PLFURVDWpOLWHVHVWXGLDGRVDOR ODUJRGHOFURPRVRPDS S
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV (QODWDEODVHPXHVWUDODUHODFLyQGHORVORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHVMXQWRFRQ HOUDQJRGHWDPDxR\Q~PHURGHUHSHWLFLRQHVGLQXFOHRWtGLFDVDSDUWLUGH',%HWDO /DQRPHQFODWXUDGHORVPLFURVDWpOLWHV0&$/3,1(WLHQHHOIRUPDWRGH 'Q6QGRQGH'LQGLFDTXHODVHFXHQFLDHVWiFRQVWLWXLGDSRU'1$QLQGLFDHO FURPRVRPD HQ HO TXH VH KD\D OD VHFXHQFLD 6 LQGLFD TXH VH WUDWD GH XQD VHFXHQFLDVLPSOH\QLQGLFDHOQ~PHURRUGLQDOTXHWLHQHDVLJQDGDODVHFXHQFLDHQ HOFURPRVRPD 7DEOD0LFURVDWpOLWHVDQDOL]DGRVHQHOFURPRVRPDS /RFXV SE $&Q /RFXV SE $&Q '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 SEWDPDxRHQSDUHVGHEDVHVQQ~PHURGHUHSHWLFLRQHVGHOGLQXFOHyWLGR /RV 613V VHOHFFLRQDGRV VH H[WLHQGHQ D OR ODUJR GHO EUD]R FRUWR GHO FURPRVRPD GHVGH OD UHJLyQ S D S (O DQiOLVLV GH HVWRV 613V VH UHDOL]yPHGLDQWHGRVPHWRGRORJtDVGLIHUHQWHVTXHGHVFULELUHPRVHQORVVLJXLHQWHV DSDUWDGRV613VIXHURQDQDOL]DGRVSRUDPSOLILFDFLyQPHGLDQWH3&5\SRVWHULRU WUDWDPLHQWR FRQ HQ]LPDV GH UHVWULFFLyQ 3&55)/3 \ 613V DQDOL]DGRV PHGLDQWHHOHFWURIRUHVLVHQJHOHVFRQJUDGLHQWHGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ'**( (Q OD WDEOD VH PXHVWUD OD UHODFLyQ GH 613V DQDOL]DGRV SRU 3&55)/3 MXQWRFRQORVWDPDxRVGHVXVDOHORV\ VXVUHVSHFWLYDVUHIHUHQFLDVELEOLRJUiILFDV (Q HO FDVR GH HVWRV 613V HO SROLPRUILVPR ELDOpOLFR DIHFWD D XQD GLDQD GH UHVWULFFLyQ GH PDQHUD TXH SXHGH VHU GHWHFWDGR PHGLDQWH WUDWDPLHQWR FRQ OD
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV HQGRQXFOHDVDGHUHVWULFFLyQDSURSLDGD$VtXQRGHORVDOHORVHVWDUiUHSUHVHQWDGR SRUXQDVHFXHQFLDGH'1$ FRQ ODGLDQDGHUHVWULFFLyQLQWDFWDDOHOR \HORWUR DOHORDSDUHFHUiFRQHVDVHFXHQFLDDOWHUDGDHQDOPHQRVXQQXFOHyWLGRDOHORGH PDQHUD TXH HO HQ]LPD QR OD UHFRQRFHUi \ QR VHUi FDSD] GH DFWXDU FRUWDQGR HO IUDJPHQWRGH'1$SRUHOVLWLRHVSHFtILFR/DQRPHQFODWXUDXWLOL]DGDHQHVWRV613V GHULYDGHOJHQHQHOTXHVHORFDOL]D\GHODHQGRQXFOHDVDGHUHVWULFFLyQTXHVH UHTXLHUHSDUDODGHWHFFLyQGHOSROLPRUILVPR'HELGRDODDXVHQFLDHQODOLWHUDWXUD GH XQD UHJOD JHQHUDO SDUD OD QRPHQFODWXUD GH 613V EDVDGRV HQ 3&55)/3 VH KDFHGLItFLOVXE~VTXHGDHQEDVHVGHGDWRV\XQDLGHQWLILFDFLyQLQHTXtYRFDHQHO FDVR GH HVWDU SUHVHQWHV HQ GLIHUHQWHV WUDEDMRV $FWXDOPHQWH H[LVWHQ EDVHV GH GDWRVIiFLOPHQWHDFFHVLEOHVGHPXOWLWXGGH613VFRQLQIRUPDFLyQGHIUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV WDPDxR GH PXHVWUD DQDOL]DGR GLVWDQFLDV ItVLFDV \ JHQpWLFDV \ PpWRGR XWLOL]DGR SDUD VX LGHQWLILFDFLyQ &RQ HO REMHWR GH IDFLOLWDU OD ORFDOL]DFLyQ GH ORV 613VGHHVWHHVWXGLRHQEDVHVGHGDWRVTXHDSRUWHQLQIRUPDFLyQDGLFLRQDOSDUD HVWH R SDUD HVWXGLRV SRVWHULRUHV VH UHDOL]y XQD FRPSDUDFLyQ GH ODV VHFXHQFLDV IODQTXHDQWHV GH FDGD 613 FRQ VHFXHQFLDV UHIOHMDGDV HQ GE6131&%, +RPH3DJH KWWSZZZQFELQOPQLKJRY $Vt VH OOHJDURQ D LGHQWLILFDU DOJXQRV 613VHQHVWDEDVHGHGDWRV\HQHVRVFDVRVVHUHIOHMDHQODWDEODWDPELpQVX FyGLJRTXHFRQVLVWHHQODVOHWUDV³UV´PiVXQQ~PHURDVLJQDGRVHJ~QVXRUGHQGH HQWUDGDHQODEDVHGHGDWRV /RV 613V DQDOL]DGRV PHGLDQWH '**( VH VHOHFFLRQDURQ GH HQWUH ORV SUHVHQWHV HQ OD EDVH GH GDWRV 7KH 613 &RQVRUWLXP 76& KWWSZZZVQSFVKORUJ6XQRPHQFODWXUDFRQVWDGHODVOHWUDV³76&´\XQQ~PHUR VHJ~Q VX RUGHQ GH HQWUDGD HQ OD EDVH GH GDWRV (Q OD WDEOD VHPXHVWUDOD UHODFLyQGH613VMXQWRFRQVXVDOHORVDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH'**(
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 7DEOD613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH3&55)/3 /RFXV 'LDQD GHUHVWULFFLyQ $OHOR SE $OHOR SE 5HIHUHQFLDV ,163VW, UV &7*&$* %(11(77HWDO ,16'UD,,, UV &$&111 *7* +2%$1\.(/6(< '5'6PD, &&&*** 3(7521,6HWDO +5$61VL, $7*&$7 +2%$1HWDO +$OX, $*&7 <%$//(HWDO +5VD, *7$& .21'2HWDO 5507DT, 7&*$ %<51(\60,7+ +%%+LQI, *$17& 6(0(1=$HWDO +%*+LQG,,, UV $$*&77 &8,HWDO $57+SD,, UV &&** <$'2//$+,)$56$1,HWDO 37+7DT, 7&*$ 08//(560$1HWDO 7S+'UD,, 5**1&&< 3$2/,1,*,$&2%,12HWDO :7+LQI, UV *$17& 7$'2.252HWDO 5 $R*< &R71 &XDOTXLHUQXFOHyWLGR 7DEOD613VDQDOL]DGRV PHGLDQWH'**( /RFXV $OHORV 76& &7 76& $& 76& $* 76& &7 76& &7
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 'LVWDQFLDV ItVLFDV ') \ IUHFXHQFLDV GH UHFRPELQDFLyQ HIHFWLYDV )5(HQWUHORVORFL /D')\OD)5(HQWUHORVORFLVRQSDUiPHWURVIXQGDPHQWDOHVSDUDXQHVWXGLR GH FDUDFWHUL]DFLyQ GH ORV SDWURQHV GH '* (V QHFHVDULR FRQRFHU OD SRVLFLyQ UHODWLYD GH XQRV PDUFDGRUHV UHVSHFWR D RWURV \ UHODFLRQDU HVWH GDWR FRQ HO GHVHTXLOLEULRH[LVWHQWHHQWUHHOORV ')HQWUHORVPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRV (OFiOFXORGHODVGLVWDQFLDVItVLFDVHQWUHSDUHVGHORFLHVLQPHGLDWRDSDUWLU GHODLQIRUPDFLyQREWHQLGDGHODVEDVHVGHGDWRV\DTXHHVWDVGLVWDQFLDVItVLFDV VRQDGLWLYDV$VtODVGLVWDQFLDVItVLFDVHQWUHSDUHVGHPLFURVDWpOLWHVVHREWXYLHURQ GH &2//,16HW DO /'% KWWSZZZFHGDUJHQHWLFVVRWRQDFXN \ HQWUH SDUHVGH613VDSDUWLUGH1&%,1&%,+RPH3DJHKWWSZZZQFELQOPQLKJRY /DVWDEODV\PXHVWUDQODVGLVWDQFLDVItVLFDVHQWUHSDUHVGH613V\HQWUHSDUHV GHPLFURVDWpOLWHVUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV UHFRPELQDFLyQVRQPD\RUHVHQORVWHOyPHURVTXHHQORVFHQWUyPHURV%8(72:HW DO :$7.,16HW DO 7,5(7HW DO /D UHODFLyQ SURPHGLR HQWUH GLVWDQFLDJHQpWLFD\ItVLFDHQKRPEUHVHVGHF0 0E\HQPXMHUHVF0 0EVLHQGRODPHGLDHQWUHORVGRVVH[RVGH0EF0RORTXHHVORPLVPR F0 0E 025721HWDO .$(660$11HWDO 675$&+$1 \5($' *(127,3$'2 *HQRWLSDGRGHORVORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHV /RVGDWRVJHQRWtSLFRVSDUDORVORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHVHVWXGLDGRVSURYLHQHQ GHGRVWUDEDMRVUHDOL]DGRVFRQDQWHULRULGDGHQQXHVWURODERUDWRULR+(50,'$ =$3$7$HW DO (Q HO WUDEDMR GH +(50,'$ VH DQDOL]DURQ PLFURVDWpOLWHV ORFDOL]DGRV D OR ODUJR GH OD UHJLyQ FHQWURPpULFD H LQWHUVWLFLDO GHO EUD]RFRUWRGHOFURPRVRPDSSDUDXQDPXHVWUDGHLQGLYLGXRVVLQ SDUHQWHVFRHQWUHVtWRPDGRVGHODSREODFLyQJDOOHJD$VtPLVPRHQHOWUDEDMRGH =$3$7$HW DO VH DQDOL]DURQ PLFURVDWpOLWHV ORFDOL]DGRV D OR ODUJRGHOD UHJLyQWHORPpULFDGHOEUD]RFRUWRGHOFURPRVRPDSHQODPLVPDPXHVWUD GH LQGLYLGXRV $Vt ORV GDWRV H[WUDtGRV GH HVWRV WUDEDMRV VH WRPDURQ FRQMXQWDPHQWHSDUDHOHVWXGLRGHOGHVHTXLOLEULRJDPpWLFRHQS *HQRWLSDGRGHORV613V 0DWHULDOELROyJLFR 3DUD HO HVWXGLR GHO GHVHTXLOLEULR JDPpWLFR D OR ODUJR GHO EUD]R FRUWR GHO FURPRVRPD KXPDQR VH REWXYR XQD PXHVWUD GH LQGLYLGXRV QR HPSDUHQWDGRVHQWUHVtGHODSREODFLyQJDOOHJD 'H FDGD LQGLYLGXR VH H[WUDMR XQD PXHVWUD GH VDQJUH SHULIpULFD TXH IXH VXPLQLVWUDGD SRU HO 'U &DUORV 0DUWtQ SHUWHQHFLHQWH DO 6HUYLFLR GH 2WRUULQRODULQJRORJtDGHO+RVSLWDO&OtQLFR8QLYHUVLWDULRGH6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHOD
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV /DV PXHVWUDV GH VDQJUH VH REWXYLHURQ XVDQGR ('7$ FRPR DQWLFRDJXODQWH WUDQVSRUWDGDV HQ IUtR DO ODERUDWRULR \ FRQVHUYDGDV D & SDUD VX SRVWHULRU XWLOL]DFLyQ ([WUDFFLyQGH'1$ /D SXULILFDFLyQ GH '1$ VH KD OOHYDGR D FDER XWLOL]DQGR ORV NLWVGH SXULILFDFLyQ GH '1$ 4,$PS'1$ %ORRG 0LQL .LW4LDJHQ(OSURFHVRVH IXQGDPHQWDHQODUHDOL]DFLyQGHXQDFURPDWRJUDItDGHDGVRUFLyQGXUDQWHODFXDOHO '1$ VH TXHGD ILMDGR D OD FROXPQD 3RVWHULRUPHQWH OD DGLFLyQ GHO WDPSyQ GH HOXFLyQKDFHTXHHO'1$VHOLEHUHTXHGDQGRHQVXVSHQVLyQHQXQWXER(SSHQGRUI FRQHOWDPSyQGHHOXFLyQ6LJXLHQGRHOSURWRFRORUHFRPHQGDGRSRUHOIDEULFDQWHHO UHQGLPLHQWR HV DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH GH QJµO GH '1$ SDUWLHQGR GH µO GH VDQJUHWRWDO(OSURGXFWRILQDOHVXQDVXVSHQVLyQGH'1$TXHVHFRQVHUYyD *HQRWLSDGRGHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH3&55)/3 $PSOLILFDFLyQSRUOD3&5GHORV613V /DDPSOLILFDFLyQGHO'1$FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHDFDGDPDUFDGRUVHKDUHDOL]DGR PHGLDQWHODWpFQLFDGHODUHDFFLyQHQFDGHQDGHODSROLPHUDVD3&5GHVFULWDSRU 08//,6HWDO\6$,.,HWDO/DVDPSOLILFDFLRQHVVHOOHYDURQDFDERHQ XQWHUPRFLFODGRU0-5HVHDUFK37&'1$(QJLQH (QODWDEODVHH[SRQHQODVVHFXHQFLDVGHORVFHEDGRUHVXWLOL]DGRVSDUD ODDPSOLILFDFLyQGHFDGD613
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 7DEOD6HFXHQFLDGHORVFHEDGRUHVXWLOL]DGRVSDUDHOGHVDUUROORGHOD3&5 613V &HEDGRUHV¶ ¶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yQ VH KLFLHURQ DOJXQDV PRGLILFDFLRQHVHQHOSURFHVRGHOD3&5SDUDPHMRUDUODDPSOLILFDFLyQFRQUHVSHFWR DODVFRQGLFLRQHVGHVFULWDVHQODOLWHUDWXUDODVUHIHUHQFLDVSDUDFDGD613VHFLWDQ HQ OD WDEOD 6H LQFOX\y XQ GH JOLFHURO HQ OD PH]FOD GH UHDFFLyQ SDUD DXPHQWDUODHILFLHQFLD\HVSHFLILFLGDGGHODDPSOLILFDFLyQGH'1$ORTXHD\XGDD SUHYHQLU OD IRUPDFLyQ GH HVWUXFWXUDV VHFXQGDULDV GXUDQWH OD UHDFFLyQ GH DPSOLILFDFLyQ /8 \1e*5( $GHPiV HO JOLFHURO D HVWD FRQFHQWUDFLyQ HV WDPELpQ ~WLO HQ EXIIHUV TXH FRQWLHQHQ .&O SDUD UHYHUWLU ORV IDOVRV QHJDWLYRV GHELGRVDXQDDPSOLILFDFLyQSUHIHUHQFLDOHQOD3&5:(,66(167(,1(5\/$1&+%85< 7DPELpQVHH[SHULPHQWyFRQODLQFOXVLyQGH%6$VHURDOE~PLQDERYLQDHQ
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV ODPH]FODGHUHDFFLyQFRQHOILQGHDXPHQWDUHOUHQGLPLHQWRGHOD3&51$*$,HW DOSHURHQQXHVWURFDVRQRVHREWXYLHURQPHMRUDV /DV UHDFFLRQHV GH DPSOLILFDFLyQ IXHURQ VLPLODUHV SDUD WRGRV ORVORFLD H[FHSFLyQGHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHORVFHEDGRUHV/DVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVSDUWLFXODUHV GH OD DPSOLILFDFLyQ GHO ORFXV +5$61VL, VH GHWDOODQ HQ HO VLJXLHQWH DSDUWDGR 7RGDV ODV UHDFFLRQHV VH OOHYDURQ D FDER HQ XQ YROXPHQ ILQDO GH µO FRQWHQLHQGR R 7DPSyQFRPHUFLDO3URPHJD0P0&O.P07ULV+&O S+ D&\7ULWyQ; R *OLFHUROYY R P00J&O R /DFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHORVFHEDGRUHV$\%VHGHWDOODHQODWDEOD R P0 GH FDGD GHR[LQXFOHyWLGR WULIRVIDWR G$73 G*73 G&73 \ G7733URPHJD8 R XQLGDGGH7DTSROLPHUDVD3URPHJD0( R QJGH'1$JHQyPLFR 7DEOD&RQFHQWUDFLRQHVGHORVFHEDGRUHVSDUDOD3&5 /RFXV µ0 /RFXV µ0 ,16'UD,,, +%%+LQI, ,163VW, +%*+LQG,,, '5'6PD, $57+SD,, +$OX, 37+7DT, +5VD, 7S+'UD,, 5507DT, :7+LQI, /DVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVGHORVFHEDGRUHV$\%SDUDFDGDORFXVVRQODVPLVPDV /RVSDUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORVSDUDODUHDOL]DFLyQGHOD3&5VHHQFXHQWUDQ GHWDOODGRVHQODWDEOD
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 7DEOD3DUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORVGHOD3&5SDUDORV613VDQDOL]DGRVSRU 3&55)/3 /RFXV 3DUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORV ,16'UD,,, 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ VHJ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV ,163VW, 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV '5'6PD, 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ VHJ (ORQJDFLyQ VHJ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV +$OX, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ VHJ (ORQJDFLyQ VHJ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV +5VD, 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV 5507DT, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ +%%+LQI, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 7DEODFRQWLQXDFLyQ /RFXV 3DUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORV +%*+LQG,,, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ VHJ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV $57+SD,, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ VHJ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV 37+7DT, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ VHJ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ VHJ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV 7S+'UD,, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV :7+LQI, 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV $PSOLILFDFLyQGHOORFXV+5$61VL, (QHOFRGyQGHORQFRJHQF+DUDVDSDUHFHXQ613ELDOpOLFRSUHYLDPHQWH GHVFULWRFRPRXQDYDULDQWHGHVHFXHQFLD7$3$52:6.<HWDO(QHVWHFDVR HO JHQRWLSDGR QR SXHGH VHU GLUHFWR PHGLDQWH WUDWDPLHQWR FRQ HQGRQXFOHDVDV GH UHVWULFFLyQ\DTXHHVWH613QRHVWiLQFOXtGRHQXQDGLDQDGHUHVWULFFLyQ+2%$1HW DOKLFLHURQSRVLEOHVXGHWHFFLyQGLVHxDQGRXQSULPHU3TXHHVFDSD]GH LQFRUSRUDU OD EDVH SROLPyUILFD D XQ VLWLR GH UHVWULFFLyQ 1VL, 3 FRQWLHQH GRV ³PLVPDWFKHV´VXEUD\DGRVHQODWDEODDG\DFHQWHVDOSROLPRUILVPRKDFLDHOILQDO ¶ GHO SULPHU $Vt PHGLDQWH GRV DPSOLILFDFLRQHV FRQVHFXWLYDV HPSOHDQGR ORV SULPHUV3\3HQODSULPHUD\3\3HQODVHJXQGDUHVXOWDXQIUDJPHQWRGH '1$GHSETXHSRVHHHOVLWLRSROLPyUILFRLQFOXLGRHQODGLDQDGHUHVWULFFLyQ SDUD1VL,$7*&$7
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 3&5 3DUD XQ YROXPHQ ILQDO GH µO VH DxDGLHURQ QJ GH '1$ XWLOL]DQGRSDUDHOORµ0GHORVSULPHUV3\3ODVVHFXHQFLDVGHORVSULPHUV VHGHWDOODQHQODWDEOD(OUHVWRGHFRPSRQHQWHVVHDxDGLHURQDODPH]FODGH 3&5HQODVPLVPDVFRQFHQWUDFLRQHVTXHSDUDORVORFLUHVWDQWHVYHUDUULED/RV SDUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORVIXHURQ 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ VHJ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV 3&53DUDXQYROXPHQILQDOGHOVHDxDGLyµOGHOSURGXFWRGHOD 3&5 DQWHULRU XWLOL]DQGR µ0 GH FDGD SULPHU 3 \ 3 WDEOD (O UHVWR GH FRPSRQHQWHV GH OD 3&5VH DMXVWDURQ D ODV PLVPDV FRQFHQWUDFLRQHV GH OD 3&5 DQWHULRU/RVSDUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORVSDUDHVWHVHJXQGRSDVRIXHURQ 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ PLQ 1GHFLFORV 8QD YH] REWHQLGR HO SURGXFWR GH DPSOLILFDFLyQ GH SE FRQ HO VLWLR SROLPyUILFRLQFOXLGRHQODGLDQDGHUHVWULFFLyQSDUD1VL,VHSURFHGHDOWUDWDPLHQWR GHHVWHSURGXFWRFRQOD HQGRQXFOHDVDGHUHVWULFFLyQ 1VL, FX\RSURFHGLPLHQWRVH YHUiHQHODSDUWDGRVLJXLHQWH 'LJHVWLyQGHORVSURGXFWRVGHDPSOLILFDFLyQSDUDORV613V (QXQWXERHVWpULOVHDxDGLySDUDXQYROXPHQILQDOGHµO
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV $JXDHVWpULO0LOOL40LOOLSRUH µO 7DPSyQ µO %6$VHURDOE~PLQDERYLQDµJµO µO '1$SURGXFWRGH3&5 µO (Q]LPDGHUHVWULFFLyQXµO µO /DPH]FODVH LQFXEyGXUDQWH KRUDV(OWDPSyQ \OD %6$VHVXPLQLVWUDQ SRU OD FDVD FRPHUFLDO FRQ HO HQ]LPD GH UHVWULFFLyQ /RV HQ]LPDV GH UHVWULFFLyQ XWLOL]DGRV DVt FRPR VXV WDPSRQHV FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV \ OD WHPSHUDWXUD ySWLPD GH LQFXEDFLyQVRQORVVLJXLHQWHV •$OX, 6LJPD 7DPSyQ 6$ [ P0 7ULVDFHWDWR P0 $FHWDWR SRWiVLFRP0$FHWDWRGHPDJQHVLR\P0'77S+D&7 ySWLPD& •'UD,,,1HZ(QJODQG%LRODEV7DPSyQ[P01D&OP07ULV +&OP00J&O\P0'77S+D&7RSWLPD& •(FR, 'UD,, $PHUVKDP 3KDUPDFLD %LRWHFK 7DPSyQ / [ P07ULV+&OP00J&O\P0'77S+D& •+LQG,,,3URPHJD7DPSyQ([P07ULV+&OP01D&OP0 0J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& •+LQI,3URPHJD7DPSyQ%[P07ULV+&OP01D&OP0 0J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& •+SD,,3URPHJD7DPSyQ$[P07ULV+&OP01D&OP0 0J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& •1VL, 6LJPD 7DPSyQ 6+ [ P0 7ULV+&O P0 1D&O P0 0J&O\P0'7(S+D&7ySWLPD& •3VW, 3URPHJD 7DPSyQ + [ P0 7ULV+&O P0 1D&O P00J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& •5VD,3URPHJD7DPSyQ&[P07ULV+&OP01D&O P00J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD&
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV •6PD,3URPHJD7DPSyQ-[P07ULV+&OS+P0.&O P00J&O\P0'77D&7ySWLPD& •7DT,3URPHJD7DPSyQ([7ySWLPD& 5HVROXFLyQGHORVJHQRWLSRV(OHFWURIRUHVLV 6HXWLOL]yODHOHFWURIRUHVLVKRUL]RQWDOGLVFRQWLQXDHQJHOHVGHSROLDFULODPLGD XOWUDILQRVPPGHJURVRUQRGHVQDWXUDOL]DQWHVPRGLILFDGDDSDUWLUGH+$$6HW DOSDUD ODVHSDUDFLyQ GHORVIUDJPHQWRV GH UHVWULFFLyQ HQ IXQFLyQGH VX WDPDxR &RPR FRQWURO GH SHVR PROHFXODU HQ ORV JHOHV GH HOHFWURIRUHVLV VH XVDURQ GRV ODGGHU XQD GH SE SE '1$ ODGGHU 3URPHJD * \ RWUD FRPSXHVWDSRUORVIUDJPHQWRVSURGXFWRGHODGLJHVWLyQGHOIDJRφ;FRQ+LQI, '1$ φ;+LQI, 3URPHJD * /D SULPHUD FRQWLHQH IUDJPHQWRV GH '1$ FX\RVWDPDxRVRVFLODQHQWUH\SEPiVRWURIUDJPHQWRGHSE\OD VHJXQGDFRQWLHQHIUDJPHQWRVGHHQWUH\SE (VWRV FRQWUROHV GH WDPDxR VRQ VRODPHQWH DSUR[LPDGRV \D TXH HQ FRQGLFLRQHV QR GHVQDWXUDOL]DQWHV OD FRQIRUPDFLyQ GHO '1$ SURYRFD TXH IUDJPHQWRV GHO PLVPR WDPDxR SHUR GH GLVWLQWD VHFXHQFLD SXHGDQ PLJUDU HQ OD PDWUL]GHSROLDFULODPLGDGHPDQHUDGLIHUHQWH 3UHSDUDFLyQGHOJHO /DPDWUL]GHOJHOHVWiFRPSXHVWDGHDFULODPLGD\GHSLSHUD]LQDTXHDFW~D FRPRFURVVOLQNHU(OWDPDxRGHSRURYLHQHGDGRHQIXQFLyQGHORVSDUiPHWURV7\ & TXH VRQ HO SRUFHQWDMH GH DFULODPLGD \ SLSHUD]LQD UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH (VWRV SDUiPHWURVGHILQHQHOJHO\YLHQHQGDGRVSRUODVH[SUHVLRQHV 9 %$ 7+ = $% % & + =
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 'RQGH$\%VRQORVJUDPRVGHDFULODPLGD\SLSHUD]LQDUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH\9 HVHOYROXPHQGHODGLVROXFLyQILQDO (OWDPSyQGHOJHOFRQVWDGH 07ULVS+ 0ÈFLGR)yUPLFR 0ÈFLGR%yULFR *OLFHURO (QHVWRV613VVHHPSOHyXQWDPDxRGHSRURGH7& /D SROLPHUL]DFLyQ GHO JHO QHFHVLWDXQ FDWDOL]DGRU 3RU HOOR VH DxDGH 36$ SHUVXOIDWR DPyQLFR D XQD FRQFHQWUDFLyQ ILQDO GH 0 \ µO GH 7(0(' 111¶1¶7HWUDPHWKLOHQWKLOHQGLDPLQSRUPLOLOLWURGHVROXFLyQGHOJHOTXHDFW~DQ FRPRORVFDWDOL]DGRUHVGHODUHDFFLyQGHSROLPHUL]DFLyQ/DPH]FODVHYLHUWHHQXQ VRSRUWHGHYLGULRGHPPGHJURVRUWUDWDGRFRQ%LQG6LODQH3KDUPDFLD%LRWHFK DO HIHFWR GH TXH OD PDWUL] GHO JHO TXHGH ILMDGD DO FULVWDO (O JHO SROLPHUL]DD&HQRVFXULGDGGXUDQWHPLQXWRV 6LVWHPDHOHFWURIRUpWLFR 8QD YH] SROLPHUL]DGR HO JHO VH UHDOL]D OD FDUJD GH ODV PXHVWUDV6H HPSDSDQSDSHOHVGHILEUDGHYLGULR,()VDPSOHDSSO3LHFH3KDUPDFLD%LRWHFK FRQODPXHVWUDDDQDOL]DUTXHVHDSOLFDQGLUHFWDPHQWHVREUHHOJHOD FPGHOHOHFWURGRDQyGLFR(QORVH[WUHPRVGHOJHOVHGLVSRQHQWLUDVGHSDSHO VHFDQWH GH FP GH DQFKR %ORWWLQJ 3DSHU 6LJPD 3 HPSDSDGDV FRQ HO WDPSyQGHOHOHFWURGRFRPSXHVWRSRUXQDVROXFLyQGH075,6\0GHiFLGR EyULFR(QFLPDGHpVWRVVHDSR\DQORVHOHFWURGRVGHIRUPDTXHODGLUHFFLyQGH FRUULGRHVGHiQRGRDFiWRGRDOHVWDUHO'1$FDUJDGRQHJDWLYDPHQWH
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GHO $ FRQWLQXDFLyQ VH DEUH HO SDVR GH IOXMRHQWUHORVGRV GHSyVLWRV \ VH HQFLHQGH OD ERPED SHULVWiOWLFD TXH PDQWLHQH XQ SDVR GH IOXMR FRQVWDQWHSDUDHOOOHQDGRGHOPROGHGHOJHO 'XUDQWHODKRUDGHSROLPHUL]DFLyQGHOJHOVHSUHSDUDHOVLVWHPDGHWDPSyQ GHOHOHFWURGRHQHOTXHVHYDDFRUUHUODHOHFWURIRUHVLVGHPDQHUDTXHVHOOHQDHO WDQTXH FRQ O GH DJXD GHVWLODGD \ VH OH DxDGHQ PO GH 7$( [ FRQFHQWUDFLyQILQDOGHOWDPSyQGHOHOHFWURGR7$([ &DUJDGHOJHO\PLJUDFLyQHOHFWURIRUpWLFD 3DUDODFRUUHFWDFDUJDGHODVPXHVWUDVHQORVSRFLOORVGHOJHOVHUHTXLHUHOD DGLFLyQGHWDPSyQGHFDUJD[D ODVPXHVWUDV /DFRPSRVLFLyQGHOWDPSyQGH FDUJDHV$]XOGHEURPRIHQRODO\*OLFHURODOHQDJXDPLOL4(QODWDEOD VHPXHVWUDQODVFRQGLFLRQHVHOHFWURIRUpWLFDVSDUDFDGDORFXV 7DEOD&RQGLFLRQHVHOHFWURIRUpWLFDV /RFXV 7 9ROWDMH 7LHPSR 76& K 76& K 76& K 76& K 76& K 9LVXDOL]DFLyQGHORVUHVXOWDGRV 3DUDODFRUUHFWDYLVXDOL]DFLyQGHORVSDWURQHVGHEDQGDVUHVXOWDQWHVWUDVOD HOHFWURIRUHVLVORVJHOHVVHWLxHURQHQXQDVROXFLyQFRQEURPXURGHHWLGLRGXUDQWH PLQXWRVWUDVORVFXDOHVVHVXPHUJLHURQHQDJXDGHVWLODGDGXUDQWHPLQXWRV SDUD HOLPLQDU HO H[FHVR GH EURPXUR GH HWLGLR \ DVt DXPHQWDU OD QLWLGH] GH ODV EDQGDV
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV $QiOLVLVGHORVGDWRV $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDSREODFLRQDO /D LQWHUSUHWDFLyQ GH ORV SDWURQHV HOHFWURIRUpWLFRV SHUPLWH FRQRFHU OD FRPSRVLFLyQJHQpWLFDGHFDGDLQGLYLGXRSDUDFDGDXQRGHORVORFLDQDOL]DGRV3HUR D QRVRWURV QRV LQWHUHVD HVWXGLDU HVRV LQGLYLGXRV D QLYHO SREODFLRQDO SRU HOOR D SDUWLU GH ORV GDWRV JHQRWtSLFRV REWHQLGRV VH HVWLPDURQ XQD VHULH GH SDUiPHWURV SDUDHVWXGLDUODYDULDELOLGDG\ODHVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDGHODSREODFLyQHVWXGLDGD(O FRQRFLPLHQWRGHODHVWUXFWXUDSREODFLRQDODGHPiVGHWHQHULQWHUpVHQVtPLVPR VHUi IXQGDPHQWDO SDUD OD HVWLPDFLyQ GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDV YpDVH HO DSDUWDGR 9DULDELOLGDGJHQpWLFD 6HHVWLPyODKHWHUR]LJRVLVREVHUYDGD R K ÖSDUDFDGDORFXVFRPRHOQ~PHUR GHKHWHUR]LJRWRVGLYLGLGRSRUHOQ~PHURWRWDOGHLQGLYLGXRVDQDOL]DGRV1 /D YDULDELOLGDG JHQpWLFD HQ XQ ORFXV VH HVWLPy PHGLDQWH HO tQGLFH GH OD KHWHUR]LJRVLVHVSHUDGD H K ÖRGLYHUVLGDGJpQLFD1(,<52<&+28'+85<1(, ∑ = −= N L LH SK Ö Ö 'RQGH SL HV OD IUHFXHQFLD GHO DOHOR L HVWLPDGD D SDUWLU GH OD PXHVWUD DQDOL]DGD\NHOQ~PHURGHDOHORVGHWHFWDGRVHQHOORFXV&XDQGR1HVSHTXHxR ODV HVWLPDV GH OD KHWHUR]LJRVLV HVSHUDGD HVWiQ LQIOXHQFLDGDV SRU HO WDPDxR PXHVWUDO SRU HVR HV PHMRU PHGLGD GH GLYHUVLGDG OD HVWLPD LQVHVJDGD GH OD KHWHUR]LJRVLV HVSHUDGD H K Ö SDUD FDGD ORFXV 1(, < 52<&+28'+85< 1(,
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV Ö Ö − − = ∑ = 1 S1 K N L L H /D HVWLPD GH OD KHWHUR]LJRVLV SURPHGLR + Ö SDUD XQ FRQMXQWR GH U ORFL DQDOL]DGRVYLHQHGDGDSRUODH[SUHVLyQ U K + U L L ∑ = = Ö Ö 'RQGH L K ÖHVODHVWLPDLQVHVJDGDGHODKHWHUR]LJRVLVHVSHUDGDSDUDFDGD ORFXV 0DJQLWXG\VLJQLILFDFLyQGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVGHODVSURSRUFLRQHV +DUG\:HLQEHUJ 0DJQLWXGGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHV (Q OD OLWHUDWXUD VH KDQ GHVFULWR GLIHUHQWHV HVWLPDGRUHV SDUD PHGLU OD PDJQLWXG GH ODV GHVYLDFLRQHV JHQRWtSLFDV REVHUYDGDV GH ODV HVSHUDGDV SRU +DUG\:HLQEHUJ +: /, < +259,7= &85,(&2+(1 :(,5 < &2&.(5+$0&+$.5$%257<<'$1.(5+23)((QQXHVWURFDVRKHPRV XWLOL]DGRHOHVWLPDGRU 7 IGHVFULWRSRU52%(57621<+,//TXHVHEDVDHQOD GLIHUHQFLDGHKRPR]LJRWRVHVSHUDGRV\REVHUYDGRV(OVLJQRGHHVWRVFRHILFLHQWHV QRVLQGLFDODGLUHFFLyQGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVGHPDQHUDTXHXQYDORUGHIQHJDWLYR LQGLFDODH[LVWHQFLDGHXQGHIHFWRGHKRPRFLJRWRVH[FHVRGHKHWHURFLJRWRV\XQ VLJQRSRVLWLYRHVLQGLFDWLYRGHXQH[FHVRGHKRPRFLJRWRV(QPXHVWUDVJUDQGHVHV HOHVWLPDGRUGHPHQRUYDULDQ]DWDQWRHQXQDSREODFLyQVXEGLYLGLGDFRPRHQXQD SREODFLyQFX\RYHUGDGHURYDORUGH 7 IVHD52%(57621<+,//
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 7 I ÖSDUDFDGDORFXVVHFDOFXODPHGLDQWHODH[SUHVLyQGDGDSRU52%(57621 <+,// Ö Ö − = ∑ = N 1 7 I N LL LL 7 6LHQGR1LHOQ~PHURGHDOHORVLHQODPXHVWUDNHOQ~PHURGHDOHORVGHFDGD ORFXV \ 7LL HO HVWLPDGRU LQVHVJDGR GH OD GHVYLDFLyQ GH OD IUHFXHQFLD GH KRPR]LJRWRV$L$LUHVSHFWRDODVSURSRUFLRQHV+:HVSHUDGDV/DVHVWLPDVGH LL 7 Ö YLHQHQGDGDVODH[SUHVLyQ Ö − −−− = 1 1111 7LLLL LL 6LHQGR1LLHOQ~PHURGHLQGLYLGXRVKRPR]LJRWRVSDUDHODOHORL /DVHVWLPDVGH 7 I ÖYDUtDQGH±D8QYDORUQHJDWLYRVHFRUUHVSRQGHUtD FRQXQGHIHFWRGHKRPR]LJRWRV\XQYDORUSRVLWLYRFRQXQH[FHVRVLHQGR 7 I Ö FXDQGRODVSURSRUFLRQHVGHORVJHQRWLSRVVHDMXVWDQDODVSURSRUFLRQHV+: /DYDULDQ]DGH 7 I ÖSDUD 7 I Ö≠VHFDOFXODPHGLDQWHODH[SUHVLyQGDGDSRU &85,(&2+(1 () ()( ) () −++−−− − − ≅∑ = N LL 7S IIININN N1 I I9 Ö Ö ÖÖÖ Ö Ö
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV &XDQGR HO WDPDxR PXHVWUDO HV JUDQGH \ 7 I Ö OD YDULDQ]D VH SXHGH DSUR[LPDUDODH[SUHVLyQ52%(57621<+,//<$68'$ Ö − = N1 I9 7 6LJQLILFDFLyQGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHV /D VLJQLILFDFLyQ GH ODV GHVYLDFLRQHV GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV +: SDUD FDGD ORFXVVHREWXYRDSOLFDQGRHOWHVWχDVRFLDGRDOHVWLPDGRU7 I52%(57621<+,// FX\DH[SUHVLyQYLHQHGDGDSRU Ö Ö 7 7 I9DU I ;= 3DUDODKLSyWHVLVQXODI7 HVWHWHVWVHGLVWULEX\HDVLQWyWLFDPHQWHFRPR XQDGLVWULEXFLyQχFRQXQJUDGRGHOLEHUWDG7RPDQGRFRPRQLYHOGHVLJQLILFDFLyQ α UHFKD]DUHPRVODKLSyWHVLVQXODFXDQGR;H[FHGDHOYDORUGH 6HKDQGHVFULWRRWURVWHVWVSDUDGHWHFWDUGHVYLDFLRQHVHQODVSURSRUFLRQHV +: FRPR ORV WHVWV GH SUREDELOLGDG R WHVWV H[DFWRV HO WHVW χ GH ERQGDG GH DMXVWH \ HO WHVW GH UD]yQ GH YHURVLPLOLWXGHV /, < +259,7= <$68'$ (0,*+ < .(037+251( (/6721 < )257+2)(5 (0,*+ /28,6 < '(0367(5 +(51È1'(= < :(,5 /(66,26 5$<021' < 52866(7 /RV WHVWV GH SUREDELOLGDG VRQ ~WLOHV FXDQGR HO WDPDxR GH PXHVWUD HV SHTXHxR\DTXHQRHVWiQEDVDGRVHQODWHRUtDDVLQWyWLFDFRPRORVGHERQGDGGH DMXVWH+(51È1'(=<:(,5*82<7+203621$GHPiVHOWHVWH[DFWR HVXQWHVWPiVFRQVHUYDGRUPHQRUQ~PHURGHHUURUHVGHWLSR,TXHHOWHVWGH ERQGDG GH DMXVWH /28,6 < '(0367(5 6H KDQ SURSXHVWR P~OWLSOHV FRUUHFFLRQHVGHFRQWLQXLGDGSDUDKDFHUORVWHVWVGHERQGDGGHDMXVWHYiOLGRVSDUD PXHVWUDVSHTXHxDV(0,*+<.(037+251((/6721<)257+2)(5SHUR
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV HQRFDVLRQHVQRPHMRUDQPXFKRORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRVFRQHOWHVWGHERQGDGGH DMXVWHFRQYHQFLRQDO(0,*++(51È1'(=<:(,55HVSHFWRDOWHVWGH UD]yQGHYHURVLPLOLWXGHVQRVHGLIHUHQFLDGHPDVLDGRHQVXVUHVXOWDGRVGHOχGH ERQGDGGHDMXVWHFRQYHQFLRQDO(OWHVWXWLOL]DGRHQHVWHWUDEDMRHVPiVSRWHQWH TXHHOWHVWGHERQGDGGHDMXVWHFRQYHQFLRQDOSDUDHOFDVRPXOWLDOpOLFR<$68'$ (0,*+ 52866(7 < 5$<021' $GHPiV QRV SHUPLWH PHGLU OD VLJQLILFDFLyQDSDUWLUGHOHVWLPDGRUGHODPDJQLWXGGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVTXHKHPRV XWLOL]DGR (VWLPDFLyQGHOGHVHTXLOLEULRJDPpWLFR'* (O '* GHVLJQD ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV QR DO D]DU HQWUH DOHORV GH ORFL GLVWLQWRV 'LFKDVDVRFLDFLRQHVSXHGHQHVWLPDUVHELHQSDUWLHQGRGHPXHVWUDVJHQRWtSLFDVR GH PXHVWUDV JDPpWLFDV +('5,&. 3HUR HQ DPERV FDVRV HV QHFHVDULR FRQRFHU ODV IUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDV R JDPpWLFDV SDUD OD HVWLPDFLyQ GH OD LQWHQVLGDGVLJQLILFDFLyQ\IUHFXHQFLDGHO'* (VWLPDFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDV 3DUWLHQGR GH XQD PXHVWUD GH JHQRWLSRV QR HV SRVLEOH REWHQHU ODV IUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDV GLUHFWDPHQWH VL GHVFRQRFHPRV OD IDVHJDPpWLFD GH ORV LQGLYLGXRVGREOHVKHWHUR]LJRWRV$VtHVQHFHVDULRFDOFXODUODVHVWLPDVGHPi[LPD YHURVLPLOLWXGGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDVTXHPD[LPLFHQODSUREDELOLGDGGHODV IUHFXHQFLDVJHQRWtSLFDVGHODPXHVWUDeVWHQRHVXQFiOFXORGLUHFWRSRUORTXHHV QHFHVDULR XWLOL]DU PpWRGRV GH LWHUDFLyQ 3DUD HOOR VH HPSOHy HODOJRULWPR(0 ([SHFWDFLyQ0D[LPL]DFLyQ '(0367(5 HW DO (;&2)),(5 < 6/$7.,1 +D\ TXH WHQHU HQ FXHQWD TXH HVWH DOJRULWPR SUHFLVD TXH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV JHQRWtSLFDVREVHUYDGDVHQODSREODFLyQQR VH GHVYtHQVLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV+:\DTXHFXDOTXLHUGHVYLDFLyQSRGUtDJHQHUDUHVWLPDVVHVJDGDV GHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDV(;&2)),(5 <6/$7.,1([LVWHQDXWRUHVTXH SURSRQHQODXWLOL]DFLyQGHODOJRULWPR(0LQFOXVRFXDQGRDOJ~QDOHORGHORVORFLGHO
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV SDU QR FXPSOH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV +: SDUD WDPDxRV GH PXHVWUD HQ HO UDQJR GH PRGHUDGRDJUDQGH)$//,16&+25. /RVSDVRVTXHOOHYDDFDERHODOJRULWPR(0VRQORVVLJXLHQWHV (PSLH]D DVLJQDQGR YDORUHV DUELWUDULRV D ODV IUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDV (VWDVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDVVRQXVDGDVSDUDLQIHULUODIUHFXHQFLD GH ORV KDSORWLSRV HQ ORV LQGLYLGXRV GREOHV KHWHUR]LJRWRV GH PRGR TXH PD[LPLFHQ OD SUREDELOLGDG GH OD GLVWULEXFLyQ GH ORV JHQRWLSRV REVHUYDGRVDVXPLHQGRODVSURSRUFLRQHV+: 7UDVODUHVROXFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDVHQORVJHQRWLSRV GREOHVKHWHUR]LJRWRVVHREWLHQHQQXHYDVHVWLPDVGHODVIUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDVSDVRGHPD[LPL]DFLyQ /RVSDVRV\VHUHSLWHQVXFHVLYDVYHFHVKDVWDTXHORV YDORUHV FRQYHUMDQ HQWUH GRV SDVRV GH LWHUDFLyQ TXH VHUi FXDQGR OD GLIHUHQFLD HQWUH OD VXPD GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDV HQ GRV SDVRVVXFHVLYRVQRVXSHUDHOYDORUGH 8QD YH] WHUPLQDGR HO SURFHVR QR KD\ VHJXULGDG GH TXH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV KDSORWtSLFDV VHDQ ODV HVWLPDV GH Pi[LPD YHURVLPLOLWXG \D TXH VH SXHGH GDU OD H[LVWHQFLDGHPi[LPRVORFDOHV3DUDHYLWDUORVHGHEHSDUWLUGHXQDJUDQYDULHGDG GHFRQGLFLRQHVLQLFLDOHVVREUHWRGRHQPXHVWUDVSHTXHxDV'(0367(5HWDO (;&2)),(5 < 6/$7.,1/21*HWDO(QQXHVWURFDVRVHSDUWLyGH FRQGLFLRQHVLQLFLDOHVGLIHUHQWHV /DVHVWLPDVGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDVVHREWXYLHURQFRQHODOJRULWPR (0FRQHOSURJUDPDLQIRUPiWLFR$UOHTXtQYHU6&+1(,'(5HWDO
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'* (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*HQWUHORFLELDOpOLFRV613V &RQVLGHUHPRVGRVORFLSROLPyUILFRV$\%FRQGRVDOHORVFDGDXQR$\$ \%\%UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH<SSTTODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGH$$%% UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH 3DUD TXH HO VLJQR GH ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV QR VHD DUELWUDULR VH FRQVLGHUDQODVFODVHVJDPpWLFDVHQDFRSODPLHQWRDTXHOODVIRUPDGDVSRUORVDOHORV PiVRPHQRVIUHFXHQWHVVHJ~Q/$1*/(<HWDO (O'*HQWUHSDUHVGHORFLELDOpOLFRVVHSXHGHPHGLUPHGLDQWHHOFRHILFLHQWH '/(:217,1.2-,0$EDVDGRHQODGLIHUHQFLDHQWUHODIUHFXHQFLDREVHUYDGD GHXQKDSORWLSR\ODIUHFXHQFLDHVSHUDGDVLORVDOHORVVHFRPELQDUDQDOD]DUTXH WRPDODH[SUHVLyQ TS;' −= VLHQGR ;ODIUHFXHQFLDGHOKDSORWLSR$%$VtSTFRQVWLWX\HXQDHVWLPDGHOD IUHFXHQFLDKDSORWtSLFDHVSHUDGDVLH[LVWLHUDXQLyQDOD]DUGHORVDOHORVGHDPERV ORFL (OYDORU\HOUDQJRGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*HVWLPDGRPHGLDQWHFRHILFLHQWHV' HV GHSHQGLHQWH GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV OR FXDO KDFH GLItFLO UHDOL]DU FRPSDUDFLRQHV HQWUH SDUHV GH ORFL GHQWUR GH XQD PLVPD SREODFLyQ \ HQWUH SREODFLRQHVGLVWLQWDV3DUDUHVROYHUHVH SUREOHPD/(:217,1LQWURGXMRXQ FRHILFLHQWH GH GHVHTXLOLEULR HVWDQGDUL]DGR FX\R UDQJR HV LQGHSHQGLHQWH GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV\RVFLODHQWUH\+('5,&. /(:217,1 =$3$7$$/9$5(=D PD[ ' ' '=
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV GRQGH'PD[HVHOPi[LPRYDORUTXH'SXHGHWRPDUGDGDVODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV \VXVLJQRGHPDQHUDTXH 'PD[ PtQ [] TSTS FXDQGR' 'PD[ PtQ [] TSTS FXDQGR'! (VWHFRHILFLHQWHQRVSHUPLWHFRPSDUDUYDORUHVGHGHVHTXLOLEULRHQWUHSDUHV GH ORFL TXH GLILHUHQ HQ VXV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV GHQWUR \ HQWUH SREODFLRQHV +('5,&./(:217,1=$3$7$9,6('2=$3$7$ 8Q LQFRQYHQLHQWH GHO FRHILFLHQWH '¶SDUD IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV GH YDORUHV H[WUHPRVHVTXHpVWHDOFDQ]DHOPi[LPRYDORUFXDQGRXQDFODVHJDPpWLFDQRHVWi SUHVHQWHGHELGRDHUURUGHPXHVWUHR'¶ LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWHGHOJUDGRGH DVRFLDFLyQ=$3$7$$/9$5(= /DSRWHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFDGHOWHVWFKLFXDGUDGRSDUDGHWHFWDU'*HQWUHGRVORFL FRQ GRV DOHORV GHSHQGH IXHUWHPHQWH GHO VLJQR GH ODV DVRFLDFLRQHV VLHQGR FRQVLGHUDEOHPHQWH PD\RU SDUD GHWHFWDU DVRFLDFLRQHV GH VLJQR SRVLWLYR TXH GH VLJQRQHJDWLYRFXDQGRHOGHVHTXLOLEULRQRHVLQWHQVR\ODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVVRQ H[WUHPDV%52:17+203621HWDO=$3$7$\$/9$5(=$GHPiV VHKDGHPRVWUDGRTXHSDUDHOFDVRGHGRVORFLELDOpOLFRVODYDULDQ]DGHPXHVWUHR GH '¶ HV PHQRU SDUD ORV GHVHTXLOLEULRV SRVLWLYRV TXH SDUD ORV GHVHTXLOLEULRV QHJDWLYRVGHODPLVPDLQWHQVLGDGVLORVKDSORWLSRVFRQORVYDORUHVPiVH[WUHPRV HVSHUDGRVVHFRQVLGHUDQODVFODVHVJDPpWLFDVHQDFRSODPLHQWR\ODVIUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDVGHORVGRVORFLQRVRQ=$3$7$HWDO
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV (VWLPDFLyQ GH OD LQWHQVLGDG GHO '* HQWUH SDUHV GH ORFL PXOWLDOpOLFRVPLFURVDWpOLWHV (O DQiOLVLV GHO '* HQWUH SDUHV GH PLFURVDWpOLWHV VH UHDOL]y D GRV QLYHOHV GLIHUHQWHV(QXQSULPHUQLYHOVHHVWLPyHOGHVHTXLOLEULRSDUDFDGDSDUGHDOHORVR KDSORWLSRV (Q XQ VHJXQGR QLYHO VH FDOFXOy HO '* JOREDO FRQGHQVDQGR OD LQIRUPDFLyQGHOGHVHTXLOLEULRHQWUHWRGRVORVDOHORVGHOSDUGHORFL (VWLPDFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHORV'*LQWHUDOpOLFRV (QXQVLVWHPDPXOWLDOpOLFRFRQVLGHUDPRVGRVORFLSROLPyUILFRV$\%FDGD XQR FRQ DOHORV $LL N \ %MM O UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH SL\TMVRQODV IUHFXHQFLDVGHORVDOHORVL\MUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH(OGHVHTXLOLEULRSDUDFDGDKDSORWLSR GHGRVORFL$L%MRGHVHTXLOLEULRLQWHUDOpOLFRSXHGHVHUFRQVLGHUDGRVHSDUDGDPHQWH DJUXSDQGRORVGDWRVHQ$LYVQR$L$LHQHOORFXV$\%MYVQR%M%MHQHOORFXV % $Vt HO WRWDO GH ORV KDSORWLSRV GH GRV ORFL VH GLVSRQHQ HQ N [ OWDEODVGH FRQWLQJHQFLD [ /DV IUHFXHQFLDV GH ODV FXDWUR FODVHV JDPpWLFDV UHVXOWDQWHV $L%M$L%M$L%M\$L%MVHUiQ;LMSL;LMTM;LM\±SL±TM;LMUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH (Q HVWH FDVR ODV FODVHV KDSORWtSLFDV HQ DFRSODPLHQWR VRQ $L%M\ $L%M DTXHOODV IRUPDGDV SRU ORV DOHORV PiV R PHQRV IUHFXHQWHV \ ODV FODVHV KDSORWtSLFDV HQ UHSXOVLyQVRQ$L%M\$L%M /DH[WHQVLyQGHOFRHILFLHQWH'/(:217,1 .2-,0$ SDUDXQVLVWHPD GH GRV ORFL PXOWLDOpOLFRV IXH SURSXHVWD SRU :(,5 &2&.(5+$0 TXH VH GHILQHFRPR MLLMLM TS;' −= GRQGH ML TS FRQVWLWX\H XQD HVWLPD GH OD IUHFXHQFLD KDSORWtSLFD HVSHUDGD VL H[LVWLHUDXQLyQDOD]DUGHORVDOHORVGHDPERVORFL
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV ,,(678',2'($62&,$&,Ï1'(/$2726&/(526,6&21/26 *(1(6'(/&2/È*(127,32,&2/$<&2/$ 0DWHULDOELROyJLFR 3DUD HVWH HVWXGLR VH VHOHFFLRQDURQ LQGLYLGXRV DIHFWDGRV SRUOD HQIHUPHGDG PXMHUHV \ KRPEUHV \ VDQRV FRQWURO DOHDWRULRV PXMHUHV \ KRPEUHV 7RGRV HOORV VLQ UHODFLRQHV GH SDUHQWHVFRHQWUHVt\ SURYHQLHQWHVGHODSREODFLyQJDOOHJD/DVHGDGHVGHORVLQGLYLGXRVDIHFWDGRVSRU ODHQIHUPHGDGYDUtDQHQWUH\DxRVSURPHGLRGHDxRV\ORVLQGLYLGXRV FRQWUROHQWUH\DxRVSURPHGLRGHDxRV(QHOHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQGH XQDHQIHUPHGDGHVLPSRUWDQWHODHGDGGHDSDULFLyQGHODPLVPD\DTXHH[LVWHHO ULHVJRGHLQFOXLUDLQGLYLGXRVHQHOJUXSRFRQWUROTXHHQUHDOLGDGYDQDPDQLIHVWDU HVD HQIHUPHGDG D XQD HGDG PiV DYDQ]DGD 'H HVWD PDQHUD HVWDUtDPRV LQWURGXFLHQGRXQVHVJRHQHOHVWXGLRTXHSRGUtDIDOVHDUORVUHVXOWDGRVREWHQLGRV /RV FULWHULRV GLDJQyVWLFRV SDUD OD LQFOXVLyQ HQ HO HVWXGLR GH ORV SDFLHQWHV FRQ RWRVFOHURVLV IXHURQ 3UHVHQWDU XQD VRUGHUD GH FRQGXFFLyQ GHPRVWUDGD SRU XQ DQiOLVLVDXGLRPpWULFR\RWRVFOHURVLVFRQILUPDGDTXLU~UJLFDPHQWH 'H FDGD LQGLYLGXR VH H[WUDMR XQD PXHVWUD GH VDQJUH SHULIpULFD TXH IXH VXPLQLVWUDGD SRU HO 'U &DUORV 0DUWtQ SHUWHQHFLHQWH DO 6HUYLFLR GH 2WRUULQRODULQJRORJtDGHO+RVSLWDO&OtQLFR8QLYHUVLWDULRGH6DQWLDJRGH&RPSRVWHOD /DV PXHVWUDV GH VDQJUH VH REWXYLHURQ XVDQGR ('7$ FRPR DQWLFRDJXODQWH WUDQVSRUWDGDV HQ IUtR DO ODERUDWRULR \ FRQVHUYDGDV D & SDUD VX SRVWHULRU XWLOL]DFLyQ ([WUDFFLyQGH'1$ /DH[WUDFFLyQGH'1$DSDUWLUGHODVPXHVWUDVGHVDQJUHGHFDGDLQGLYLGXR VHUHDOL]yVHJ~QHOSURWRFRORGHWDOODGRHQHODSDUWDGRGHODVHFFLyQDQWHULRU
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 0DUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRV /RV PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV DQDOL]DGRV SDUD HO HVWXGLR GH DVRFLDFLyQ GH OD RWRVFOHURVLV FRQ ORV JHQHV FDQGLGDWRV &2/$ \ &2/$ VH PXHVWUDQ HQ OD ILJXUD &RPR VH SXHGH REVHUYDU ORV PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV VH HQFXHQWUDQ HQ GRVUHJLRQHVFURPRVyPLFDVGRQGHVHORFDOL]DQORVJHQHV&2/$\&2/$TXH FRGLILFDQSDUDODSURFDGHQDα,GHOFROiJHQRWLSR,(OJHQ&2/$DEDUFDXQD GLVWDQFLDGHNEHQODUHJLyQFURPRVyPLFDTT\HOJHQ&2/$ VHH[WLHQGHDORODUJRGHNEGHODUHJLyQFURPRVyPLFDT )LJXUD /RFDOL]DFLyQ FURPRVyPLFD GH ORV PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV DQDOL]DGRV SDUD HO HVWXGLR GH DVRFLDFLyQ FRQ OD RWRVFOHURVLV 6H PXHVWUD OD ORFDOL]DFLyQ FLWRJHQpWLFD GH ORV JHQHV FDQGLGDWRV OD GLVSRVLFLyQ GH ORV PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV GHQWUR GH ORV PLVPRV DVt FRPRODGLVWDQFLDItVLFDHQSEHQWUHFDGDGRVPDUFDGRUHVFRQVHFXWLYRV 5VD, 0QO, &2/$ &5202620$ &5202620$ SE *7Q $&7 Q 3YX,, 5VD, 0VS, (FR5, &2/$ SE SE SE SE T T
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV /D ORFDOL]DFLyQ GH FDGD PDUFDGRU GHQWUR GHO JHQ DVt FRPRHO WDPDxR GH VXV DOHORV VH PXHVWUDQ HQ OD WDEOD /RV PDUFDGRUHV JHQpWLFRV DQDOL]DGRV IXHURQ GRV PLFURVDWpOLWHV \ VLHWH613V/RV613VVRQGHOWLSR3&55)/3 (Q HVWRV 613V HO SROLPRUILVPR DIHFWD D XQD GLDQD GH UHVWULFFLyQ GH PDQHUD TXH SXHGH VHU GHWHFWDGR PHGLDQWH WUDWDPLHQWR FRQ OD HQGRQXFOHDVD GH UHVWULFFLyQ DSURSLDGDTXHUHFRQRFHODGLDQDHVSHFtILFD\GLYLGHODVHFXHQFLDGH'1$HQHVH SXQWR$VtXQRGHORVDOHORVHVWDUiUHSUHVHQWDGRSRUXQDVHFXHQFLDGH'1$FRQ ODGLDQDGHUHVWULFFLyQLQWDFWDDOHOR\HORWURDOHORDSDUHFHUiFRQHVDVHFXHQFLD DOWHUDGD HQ DO PHQRV XQ QXFOHyWLGR DOHOR GH PDQHUD TXH HO HQ]LPD QR OD UHFRQRFHUi\QRVHUiFDSD]GHDFWXDUFRUWDQGRHOIUDJPHQWRGH'1$SRUHOVLWLR HVSHFtILFR(QHO6130QO,&2/$ODQRPHQFODWXUDGHORVDOHORV7&GHULYDGH ODEDVHQXFOHRWtGLFDTXHSRVHHHOFDUiFWHUSROLPyUILFRHQODGLDQDGHUHVWULFFLyQ /D SUHVHQFLD GHO DOHOR 7 SURYRFD OD DOWHUDFLyQ GH OD VHFXHQFLD GH OD GLDQD GH UHVWULFFLyQ \ HO DOHOR & PDQWLHQH LQWDFWD VX VHFXHQFLD /DV UHIHUHQFLDV ELEOLRJUiILFDVGHFDGDPDUFDGRUVHHQFXHQWUDQHVSHFLILFDGDVHQODWDEOD 7DEOD0DUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVDQDOL]DGRVGHQWURGHORVJHQHV&2/$\&2/$ SDUDHOHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQFRQODRWRVFOHURVLV 0DUFDGRU /RFXV ORFDOL]DFLyQ 7LSRGHSROLPRUILVPR 7DPDxRGHORVDOHORV SE 5VD,&2/$ &2/$ H[WUHPR¶ 613 0QO,&2/$ &2/$ ¶875 613 7 & *7&2/$ &2/$ ,QWUyQ 0LFURVDWpOLWH (FR5,&2/$ &2/$ ,QWUyQ 613 ∼ ∼ $&7&2/$ &2/$ ,QWUyQ 0LFURVDWpOLWH D D D D D
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV $PSOLILFDFLyQSRUOD3&5GHORVPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRV /DDPSOLILFDFLyQGHORVPDUFDGRUHVJHQpWLFRVVHUHDOL]yPHGLDQWHODWpFQLFD GHODUHDFFLyQHQFDGHQDGHODSROLPHUDVD3&5GHVFULWDHQHODSDUWDGR GH OD VHFFLyQ DQWHULRU /DV VHFXHQFLDV GH ORV FHEDGRUHV XWLOL]DGRV SDUD ODV DPSOLILFDFLRQHVVHPXHVWUDQHQODWDEOD 7DEODFRQWLQXDFLyQ 0DUFDGRU /RFXV ORFDOL]DFLyQ 7LSRGHSROLPRUILVPR 7DPDxRGHORVDOHORV SE 3YX,,&2/$ &2/$ &RGyQ 613 5VD,&2/$ &2/$ ,QWUyQ 613 0VS,&2/$ &2/$ ,QWUyQ 613 D1~PHURGHUHSHWLFLRQHVGHOWULQXFOHyWLGR 7DEOD6HFXHQFLDGHORVFHEDGRUHVXWLOL]DGRVSDUDODDPSOLILFDFLyQSRU3&5GHORV PDUFDGRUHVXWLOL]DGRVSDUDHOHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQFRQODRWRVFOHURVLV /RFXV &HEDGRUHV¶ ¶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yQGHHVWRVGRVORFL
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV /DVPH]FODVGHUHDFFLyQIXHURQEiVLFDPHQWHODVPLVPDVDODVGHVFULWDVHQ HODSDUWDGRGHODVHFFLyQDQWHULRUDH[FHSFLyQGHODFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHORV FHEDGRUHVTXHDSDUHFHGHWDOODGDHQODWDEOD 7DEOD&RQFHQWUDFLRQHVGHORVFHEDGRUHVXWLOL]DGRVSDUDODDPSOLILFDFLyQSRU3&5 GHORVPDUFDGRUHVXWLOL]DGRVSDUDHOHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQFRQODRWRVFOHURVLV /RFXV &HEDGRU µ0 /RFXV &HEDGRU µ0 5VD,&2/$ $ 3YX,,&2/$ $ % % 0QO,&2/$ $ 5VD,&2/$ $ % % *7&2/$ $ 0VS,&2/$ $ % % $&7&2/$ $ (FR5,&2/$ % /DFRQFHQWUDFLyQGHFHEDGRUHVTXHVHXWLOL]ySDUDODDPSOLILFDFLyQPHGLDQWH OD3&5GH ORV 613V GHPD\RU SHVRPROHFXODU5VD,&2/$3YX,,&2/$\ 0VS,&2/$IXHVHQVLEOHPHQWHPHQRUTXHODVFRQGLFLRQHVHVWiQGDUGHELGRD TXH HQ HVWRV FDVRV QR VH ORJUDED VHxDO GH DPSOLILFDFLyQ WUDEDMDQGR FRQ ODV FRQGLFLRQHVHVWiQGDU7UDEDMRVDQWHULRUHVKDEtDQREVHUYDGRXQDPD\RUHILFLHQFLD \HVSHFLILFLGDGHQODDPSOLILFDFLyQGHIUDJPHQWRVJUDQGHVGH'1$FXDQWDPHQRU FRQFHQWUDFLyQ GH FHEDGRUHV HVWXYLHUD SUHVHQWH HQ OD PH]FOD GH UHDFFLyQ 6È1&+(=HWDO5,&+,(HWDO /DV UHDFFLRQHV GH DPSOLILFDFLyQ VH UHDOL]DURQ HQ XQ WHUPRFLFODGRU 3HUNLQ (OPHU *HQH$PS 3&5 V\VWHP /RV SDUiPHWURV GH ORV FLFORV GH DPSOLILFDFLyQPHGLDQWHOD3&5SDUDFDGDORFXVVHPXHVWUDQHQODWDEOD
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 7DEOD3DUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORVGHDPSOLILFDFLyQPHGLDQWHOD3&5SDUDORV PDUFDGRUHVDQDOL]DGRVSDUDHOHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQFRQODRWRVFOHURVLV /RFXV 3DUiPHWURVGHORVFLFORV 5VD,&2/$ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV 0QO,&2/$ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV *7&2/$ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV (FR5,&2/$\$&7&2/$ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV 3YX,,&2/$ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV 5VD,&2/$ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV 0VS,&2/$ 3DVRSUHYLRGHGHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ 'HVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQ &PLQ ³$QQHDOLQJ´ &PLQ (ORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 3DVRILQDOGHHORQJDFLyQ &PLQ 5DPSDGHWHPSHUDWXUD 1GHFLFORV
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 'LJHVWLyQGHORVSURGXFWRVGHDPSOLILFDFLyQSDUDORV613V /DGLJHVWLyQGHORVSURGXFWRVGHDPSOLILFDFLyQSDUDORV613VVHUHDOL]yHQ ODVPLVPDVFRQGLFLRQHVTXHODVGHWDOODGDVHQHO DSDUWDGRGHODVHFFLyQ DQWHULRU /RV HQ]LPDV GH UHVWULFFLyQ XWLOL]DGRV DVt FRPR VXV WDPSRQHV FRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV\ODWHPSHUDWXUDySWLPDGHLQFXEDFLyQVRQORVVLJXLHQWHV •(FR5,3URPHJD7DPSyQ+[P07ULV+&OP01D&O P00J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& •0QO, 1HZ (QJODQG %LRODEV 7DPSyQ [ P0 1D&O P0 7ULV +&OP00J&O\P0'77S+ D&7RSWLPD& •0VS,3URPHJD7DPSyQ%[7ySWLPD& •3YX,,3URPHJD7DPSyQ%[P07ULV+&OP01D&OP0 0J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& •5VD,3URPHJD7DPSyQ&[P07ULV+&OP01D&O P00J&O\P0'77S+D&7ySWLPD& 5HVROXFLyQGHORVJHQRWLSRV(OHFWURIRUHVLV 6HXWLOL]yODHOHFWURIRUHVLVKRUL]RQWDOGLVFRQWLQXDHQJHOHVGHSROLDFULODPLGD XOWUDILQRVPPGHJURVRUQRGHVQDWXUDOL]DQWHVPRGLILFDGDDSDUWLUGH+$$6HW DOSDUDODVHSDUDFLyQGHORVIUDJPHQWRVGH'1$HQIXQFLyQGHVXWDPDxR 52'5,*8(=HWDO52'5,*8(=\=$3$7$ (Q OD WDEOD VH HQFXHQWUDQ GHWDOODGDV ODV FRQGLFLRQHV HOHFWURIRUpWLFDV DSOLFDGDVSDUDFDGDPDUFDGRUDQDOL]DGRDVtFRPRHOWDPDxRGHSRURGHOJHOGH SROLDFULODPLGDSUHSDUDGRSDUDFDGDFDVR7&3DUDODSXHVWDHQPDUFKDGH OD HOHFWURIRUHVLV \ VX WLQFLyQ SRVWHULRU YpDVH HO DSDUWDGR GH OD VHFFLyQ DQWHULRU
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV /RV 613V VH VRPHWLHURQ D HOHFWURIRUHVLV SRVWHULRUPHQWH D VX WUDWDPLHQWR FRQ HO HQ]LPD GH UHVWULFFLyQ DSURSLDGR (Q FDPELR HQ HO FDVR GH ORV PLFURVDWpOLWHV ORV IUDJPHQWRV UHVXOWDQWHV GHO SURFHVR GH 3&5 VH VRPHWHQ GLUHFWDPHQWH D HOHFWURIRUHVLV (Q HVWH VLVWHPD ORV SROLPRUILVPRV GH WLSR PLFURVDWpOLWH PXHVWUDQ DGHPiV GH ODV EDQGDV DOpOLFDV XQD VHULH GH EDQGDV HVSHFtILFDV GH DOHOR \ EDQGDV HVSHFtILFDV GH JHQRWLSR TXH SHUPLWHQ UHGXFLU ORV HUURUHV GH JHQRWLSDGR GH XQ KHWHURFLJRWR FRPR KRPRFLJRWR GHELGR D XQD QR DPSOLILFDFLyQWRWDORSDUFLDOSURGXFLGDGXUDQWHOD3&50$1,$7,6HWDO35,1= HWDO52'5Ë*8(=HWDO /DVEDQGDVHVSHFtILFDVGHDOHORVHGLYLGHQHQEDQGDVWDUWDPXGDVRVWXWWHU EDQGV \ EDQGDV GLDJQyVWLFR R GLDJQRVWLF VKDGRZ EDQGV'6%V/DVEDQGDV WDUWDPXGDV WLHQHQ XQD PD\RU WDVD GH PLJUDFLyQ TXH HO DOHOR \ DSDUHFHQ D LQWHUYDORVGHGRVSDUHVGHEDVHVGHVGHODEDQGDDOpOLFD/DV'6%VWLHQHQXQD PHQRUWDVDGHPLJUDFLyQTXHHODOHORFRUUHVSRQGLHQWH\VXGLVWDQFLDFRQODEDQGD DOpOLFDHVFRQVWDQWHGHQWURGHFDGDORFXV6HKDGHPRVWUDGRTXHODV'6%V\ORV DOHORVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHVVRQGRVFRQIRUPDFLRQHVGLIHUHQWHVGHODPLVPDVHFXHQFLD 7DEOD7DPDxRGHSRURGLVWDQFLDLQWHUHOHFWURGR\FRQGLFLRQHVHOHFWURIRUpWLFDVSDUD FDGDPDUFDGRUDQDOL]DGRSDUDHOHVWXGLRGHDVRFLDFLyQFRQODRWRVFOHURVLV /RFXV 7&D 'LVWDQFLD LQWHUHOHFWURGR 9ROWDMH $PSHUDMH 7LHPSR *7&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ KPLQ $&7&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ KPLQ (FR5,&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ PLQ 3YX,,&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ PLQ 5VD,&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ K 0VS,&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ K 0QO,&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ PLQ 5VD,&2/$ 7& FP 9 P$ PLQ (QWRGRVORVFDVRVODSRWHQFLDVHILMyHQZ D7\&UHSUHVHQWDQHOSRUFHQWDMHGHDFULODPLGD\SLSHUD]LQDUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV 52'5Ë*8(=HW DO /DV EDQGDV HVSHFtILFDV GH JHQRWLSR VH GLYLGHQ HQ KHWHURGXSOH[ EDQGV \IDLQW EDQGV /DV SULPHUDV RFXUUHQ HQ LQGLYLGXRV KHWHURFLJRWRV \ ODV VHJXQGDV HQ KRPRFLJRWRV \ SRVHHQ XQD WDVD GH PLJUDFLyQ PHQRUTXHHOUHVWRGHEDQGDVDQWHULRUHV $GHPiV GH UHGXFLU HUURUHV GH JHQRWLSDGR DO FRQVLGHUDU HQ OD OHFWXUD ODV EDQGDVDGLFLRQDOHVHVWHVLVWHPDSHUPLWHXQDVRODEDVHGHUHVROXFLyQ52'5Ë*8(= =$3$7$(VWDVEDQGDVDVRFLDGDVVRQPiVIUHFXHQWHVHQORVPLFURVDWpOLWHV GH WLSR GLQXFOHRWtGLFR TXH HQ ORV WULQXFOHRWtGLFRV OR FXDO VH KD SRGLGR YHULILFDU GXUDQWHODH[SHULPHQWDFLyQ $QiOLVLVGHORVGDWRV $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDSREODFLRQDO (OFRQRFLPLHQWRGHODHVWUXFWXUDSREODFLRQDOHVLPSRUWDQWHHQHVWXGLRVGH DVRFLDFLyQ SDUD LQYHVWLJDU VL ODV PXHVWUDV GH LQGLYLGXRV FRQWUROHV \ HQIHUPRV SURFHGHQGHXQDSREODFLyQKRPRJpQHD<DTXHHOIHQyPHQRGHVXEHVWUXFWXUDFLyQ GHSREODFLRQHVSXHGHRULJLQDUDVRFLDFLRQHVHVS~UHDV(VWRVDQiOLVLVVHUHDOL]DURQ HQ ODV PXHVWUDV GH HQIHUPRV FRQWUROHV \ HQ OD PXHVWUD WRWDO VLHQGR OD PHWRGRORJtDHVWDGtVWLFDHPSOHDGDVLPLODUDODH[SXHVWDHQHODSDUWDGRGHOD VHFFLyQDQWHULRU/D~QLFDVDOYHGDGHVHOPD\RUQ~PHURGHDOHORVTXHSUHVHQWDQ ORVORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHVUHVSHFWRDORV613VTXHVRQELDOpOLFRV3RUHVWDUD]yQODV GHVYLDFLRQHVGHODVSURSRUFLRQHV+:SDUDFDGDDOHORVHHVWLPDURQPHGLDQWHHO HVWDGtVWLFR GH 52%(57621 < +,// SDUD FDGD DOHOR LL I Ö TXH VH FDOFXOD FRPR Ö LL LL LL 111 17 I − =
0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV $Vt PLVPR VX VLJQLILFDFLyQ VH REWXYR DSOLFDQGR HO WHVW χ DVRFLDGR DO HVWLPDGRU LL I Ö52%(57621<+,///DUD]yQHQWUHODHVWLPD LL I ÖDOFXDGUDGR\ VXYDULDQ]DGDOXJDUDOHVWDGtVWLFR LL ; Ö Ö LL LL LL I9DU I ;= 3DUDODKLSyWHVLVQXODILL HVWHHVWDGtVWLFRVHGLVWULEX\HDVLQWyWLFDPHQWH FRPRXQDχFRQXQJUDGRGHOLEHUWDG7RPDQGRFRPRQLYHOGHVLJQLILFDFLyQα UHFKD]DUHPRVODKLSyWHVLVQXODFXDQGR;H[FHGDHOYDORUGH (VWLPDFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDV /DVIUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDVSDUDFDGDSDUGHORFLVHHVWLPDURQPHGLDQWHHO DOJRULWPR(0([SHFWDFLyQ0D[LPL]DFLyQWDQWRHQODPXHVWUDGHHQIHUPRVFRPR HQ HO JUXSR FRQWURO WDO FRPR VH GHVFULEH HQ HO DSDUWDGR GH OD VHFFLyQ DQWHULRU 3DUD HO SDU GH ORFL (FR5,&2/$ \ $&7&2/$ VH SXGR FRQRFHUOD IDVH JDPpWLFD HQ ORV GREOHV KHWHUR]LJRWRV GDGR TXH VH ORFDOL]DQ HQ HO PLVPR IUDJPHQWRDPSOLILFDGR7UDVHOWUDWDPLHQWRFRQHOHQ]LPDGHUHVWULFFLyQHODOHOR GHO613PDQWLHQHHOWDPDxRGHOIUDJPHQWRDPSOLILFDGRRULJLQDO'DGRTXHHODOHOR GHO613SRVHHODPLVPDVHFXHQFLDTXHHODOHORGHOPLFURVDWpOLWHHQVXPLVPD IDVHJDPpWLFDDPERVFRPSDUWHQODPLVPDWDVDGHPLJUDFLyQHOHFWURIRUpWLFD/RV GRV IUDJPHQWRV GH PHQRU WDPDxR UHVXOWDQWHV GH OD GLJHVWLyQ FRQ HO HQ]LPD GH UHVWULFFLyQ \ TXH FRQIRUPDQ HO DOHOR GHO 613 WHQGUiQ XQD PD\RU PLJUDFLyQ HOHFWURIRUpWLFDTXHHOIUDJPHQWRDPSOLILFDGRRULJLQDO\SRUWDQWRPLJUDUiQPiVTXH HODOHORGHOPLFURVDWpOLWHHQVXPLVPDIDVHJDPpWLFD(QHOVLJXLHQWHHVTXHPDVH UHSUHVHQWD XQ KLSRWpWLFR SDWUyQ UHVXOWDGR GH XQD HOHFWURIRUHVLVDOFRUUHUORVGRV PDUFDGRUHVHQSDUDOHOR
5HVXOWDGRV PHQRU WDPDxR HQ HO DOHOR QR DSDUHFH HQ OD HOHFWURIRUHVLV DO VHU GHPDVLDGR SHTXHxRSESESE\SEUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH(QFDPELRHQHOFDVR GHO613$57+SD,,ORVIUDJPHQWRVUHVXOWDQWHVGHODGLJHVWLyQGHODOHORFRQHO HQ]LPDGHUHVWULFFLyQVRQGHWDPDxRVLPLODU\VHUHVXHOYHQFRPRXQDVRODEDQGD HQODHOHFWURIRUHVLV (OFDVRGHO613+%%+LQI,HVDOJRGLIHUHQWHDORVDQWHULRUHV$TXtDSDUHFHQ EDQGDVHQORVLQGLYLGXRVKHWHUR]LJRWRVHQORVKRPR]LJRWRV\HQORV KRPR]LJRWRV ILJXUD 'H OD DPSOLILFDFLyQ GH OD UHJLyQ TXH FRQWLHQH HVWH 613UHVXOWDXQIUDJPHQWRGHSETXHFRQWLHQHWUHVGLDQDVGHUHVWULFFLyQSDUD HO HQ]LPD +LQI, 'RV GH ODV GLDQDV VRQ FRQVWDQWHV \ DSDUHFHQ HQ WRGRV ORV LQGLYLGXRVGHPRGRTXHGLYLGHQHOIUDJPHQWRGHSEHQWUHVGHSESE \ SE (O IUDJPHQWR GH SE HV HO TXH FRQWLHQH OD GLDQD GH UHVWULFFLyQ SROLPyUILFDGHPRGRTXHFXDQGRHVWiSUHVHQWHDOHORHOHQ]LPDGHUHVWULFFLyQ OR GLYLGH HQ GRV IUDJPHQWRV GH SE \ SE(Q HO DOHOR VH HYLGHQFLD OD EDQGDGHSEVLQGLYLGLU
5HVXOWDGRV '5'6PD, +5$61VL, ,16'UD,,, ,163VW, +$OX, +5VD, 5507DT, +%%+LQI, S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E )LJXUD3DWURQHVHOHFWURIRUpWLFRVSDUDORV613VDQDOL]DGRVSRU3&55)/3
5HVXOWDGRV +%*+LQG,,, $57+SD,, 37+7DT, 7S+'UD,, :7+LQI, S E S E S E S E SE\ SE S E S E S E S E S E S E S E S E )LJXUDFRQWLQXDFLyQ
5HVXOWDGRV 613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH'**( /DWpFQLFD'**(QRVKDSHUPLWLGRGLIHUHQFLDUGRVPROpFXODVGH'1$TXH GLILHUHQ HQ VX VHFXHQFLD HQ XQD ~QLFD SRVLFLyQ QXFOHRWtGLFD /RV GRV DOHORV GH FDGD 613 VH UHVROYLHURQ HQ XQ JHO GH HOHFWURIRUHVLV FRQ JUDGLHQWH GH GHVQDWXUDOL]DFLyQGDQGROXJDUDEDQGDVGH'1$FRQGLIHUHQWHWDVDGHPLJUDFLyQ HOHFWURIRUpWLFD (Q OD ILJXUD VH SXHGHQ YHU ORV SDWURQHV HOHFWURIRUpWLFRV UHVXOWDQWHVGHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVSRU'**(&DGDILJXUDVHFRUUHVSRQGHFRQ XQDSRUFLyQGHXQJHOSDUDXQRRGRV613V 76& 76& 7 & & 7 76& 7 & 76& 76& & $ * $ 77 &7 77 &7 && &7 && &7 77 &7 &7 &7 && &7 && && 77 77 77 77 7& 7& 77 && &$ $$ &$ $$ $$ && &$ *$ $$ $$ *$ *$ ** $$ $$ )LJXUD3DWURQHVHOHFWURIRUpWLFRVGHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVPHGLDQWH'**((QHOODWHUDO GHUHFKRVHUHSUHVHQWDQORVDOHORV\HQODSDUWHLQIHULRUORVJHQRWLSRVGHFDGDLQGLYLGXR
5HVXOWDGRV /RV613V76&\76&VHUHVROYLHURQHQHOPLVPRJHOGH HOHFWURIRUHVLV(OiUHDGHOHFWXUDGHFDGDXQRGHHVWRVGRV613VHVWiPDUFDGD FRQ XQ UHFXDGUR 3DUD WRGRV ORV 613V HQ ORV LQGLYLGXRV KHWHUR]LJRWRV VH REVHUYDQDGHPiVGHODVEDQGDVDOpOLFDVKRPRG~SOH[GRVEDQGDVFRQPHQRU WDVD GH PLJUDFLyQ VHxDODGDV FRQ GRV DVWHULVFRV eVWDV VRQ ODV EDQGDV KHWHURG~SOH[TXHVHJHQHUDQHQORV~OWLPRVSDVRVGHOD3&5DOHVWDUSUHVHQWHV ORVGRVDOHORVHQKHWHUR]LJRVLV $1È/,6,6'(/$9$5,$%,/,'$'</$(6758&785$ 32%/$&,21$/ $ SDUWLU GH ORV GDWRV JHQRWtSLFRV REWHQLGRV VH FDOFXODURQ ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDVSDUDFDGD613(QODILJXUDVHPXHVWUDODGLVWULEXFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDVREVHUYDGDVHQODPXHVWUDSDUDFDGD613(QODWDEODVHPXHVWUDQODV IUHFXHQFLDVDEVROXWDV\UHODWLYDVGHFDGDDOHOR6HREVHUYDTXHHQFDVLWRGRVORV FDVRV ODV IUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDV WRPDQ YDORUHV LQWHUPHGLRV 6yOR HQ GRV 613V OD IUHFXHQFLD UHODWLYD GHO DOHOR PLQRULWDULR IXH PHQRU GH '5'6PD, \ :7 +LQI, )LJXUD)UHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHORV613VDQDOL]DGRV
5HVXOWDGRV )LJXUDFRQWLQXDFLyQ
5HVXOWDGRV 7DEOD)UHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHORVORFL613V /RFXV $OHOR )UHFDEV )UHFUHO ,163VW, ,16'UD,,, '5'6PD, +5$61VL, +$OX, +5VD, 5507DT, +%%+LQI, +%*+LQG,,, $57+SD,, 37+7DT, 7S+'UD,, :7+LQI, 76& & 7 76& 7 & 76& & $ 76& * $ 76& 7 &
5HVXOWDGRV (Q OD WDEOD VH PXHVWUDQ ODV HVWLPDV GH YDULDELOLGDG SDUD FDGD ORFXV DQDOL]DGR DVt FRPR OD PDJQLWXG \ OD VLJQLILFDFLyQ GH ODV GHVYLDFLRQHV GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV+:SDUDFDGDORFXVREWHQLGDVPHGLDQWHHOHVWLPDGRUI7\HOWHVWFKL FXDGUDGRUHVSHFWLYDPHQWH52%(57621\+,///DKHWHUR]LJRVLVREVHUYDGD RVFLOD HQWUH '5'6PD, \ +%*+LQG,,, FRQ XQ SURPHGLR 6( VWDQGDUG HUURU GH ± /D KHWHUR]LJRVLV HVSHUDGD KH RVFLOD HQWUH '5'6PD,\+%*+LQG,,,TXHHVHOPi[LPRYDORUSRVLEOHTXHVHSXHGH GDU SDUD XQ VLVWHPD GH GRV DOHORV /D GLYHUVLGDG PHGLGD HQ WpUPLQRV GHO SURPHGLRGHODVKHWHUR]LJRVLVHVSHUDGDVSDUDFDGDORFXVIXHGH±OR TXHVXJLHUHXQDHOHYDGDGLYHUVLGDGSDUDORV613VDQDOL]DGRVHQODSREODFLyQGH HVWXGLR /DV KHWHUR]LJRVLV REVHUYDGD \ HVSHUDGD PXHVWUDQ HQ JHQHUDO XQD EXHQD FRQFRUGDQFLD FRQ XQ SURPHGLR GH KHWHUR]LJRVLV REVHUYDGD GH ± \ XQ SURPHGLRGHKHWHUR]LJRVLVHVSHUDGDGH±$VtPLVPRHQODPD\RUtDGH ORV FDVRV QR H[LVWHQ GLIHUHQFLDV HVWDGtVWLFDPHQWH VLJQLILFDWLYDV HQWUH ODV IUHFXHQFLDVJHQRWtSLFDVREVHUYDGDV\ODVHVSHUDGDVEDMRODVSURSRUFLRQHV+DUG\ :HLQEHUJ6yORHQHO61376&VHGHWHFWDXQDGHVYLDFLyQVLJQLILFDWLYDGH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV+: FRQ XQD SUREDELOLGDG OLJHUDPHQWH SRU GHEDMR GHO QLYHO GH VLJQLILFDFLyQQRPLQDO3 (VWHUHVXOWDGRSRGUtDVHUGHELGRDXQHUURUGH WLSR,SUREDELOLGDGGHUHFKD]DUODKLSyWHVLVQXODGHDSDUHDPLHQWRDOHDWRULRFXDQGR HV YHUGDGHUD $Vt HO QLYHO GH VLJQLILFDFLyQ QRPLQDO GH VXSRQH TXH SRGUtDPRV HVSHUDU XQ GH GHVYLDFLRQHV VLJQLILFDWLYDV VRODPHQWH SRU D]DU FXDQGR ORV WHVWV VRQ LQGHSHQGLHQWHV < HVWH SRUFHQWDMH HV DSUR[LPDGDPHQWH HO TXH UHVXOWD HQ HVWH HVWXGLR \D TXH GH ORV WHVWV UHDOL]DGRV VyOR XQR UHVXOWD VLJQLILFDWLYR (Q HVWH FDVR ORV WHVWV QR VRQ LQGHSHQGLHQWHV SRU OR TXH LQFOXVR SRGUtDPRV HVSHUDU XQ PD\RU SRUFHQWDMH GH FDVRV VLJQLILFDWLYRV VRODPHQWH SRU D]DU$GHPiVHQJHQHUDOODPDJQLWXGGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVGHODVSURSRUFLRQHV+ : PHGLGDV PHGLDQWH HVWDGtVWLFRV I VRQ SHTXHxDV $Vt ORV YDORUHV RVFLODQ HQ YDORUDEVROXWRHQWUH±7SK'UD,,\±76&FRQ XQ SURPHGLR GH ± 7DPSRFR VH REVHUYD XQD WHQGHQFLD KDFLD XQ H[FHVRGHKRPRFLJRWRVIGHVLJQRSRVLWLYRRGHIHFWRGHKRPRFLJRWRVIGHVLJQR
5HVXOWDGRV QHJDWLYR\DTXHHOQ~PHURGHFDVRVSRVLWLYRVHVHTXLYDOHQWHDOQ~PHURGHFDVRV QHJDWLYRV 7DEOD0DJQLWXG 7 I Ö\VLJQLILFDFLyQ;GHODMXVWHDODVSURSRUFLRQHV+DUG\ :HLQEHUJSDUDFDGDXQRGHORVORFLDQDOL]DGRV3UHSUHVHQWDODSUREDELOLGDGREWHQLGD PHGLDQWHHOWHVW&KLFXDGUDGR /RFXV KR K H7 I Ö6( ; JO 3 ,16'UD,,, ± ,163VW, ± '5'6PD, ± +5$61VL, ± +$OX, ± +5VD, ± 5507DT, ± +%%+LQI, ± +%*+LQG,,, ± $57+SD,, ± 37+7DT, ± 7SK'UD,, ± :7+LQI, ± 76& ± 76& ± 76& ± 76& ± 76& ± 0(',$± ±± ±6( ± ± ± $1È/,6,6'(/'(6(48,/,%5,2*$0e7,&2 (O DQiOLVLV GHO GHVHTXLOLEULR JDPpWLFR VH UHDOL]y SDUD WRGDV ODV FRPELQDFLRQHVGHSDUHVGHORFLHQWUHORV613VDQDOL]DGRVGHOEUD]RFRUWRGHO FURPRVRPDORTXHVXSRQHXQWRWDOGHSDUHV(QHVWHHVWXGLRORV613V
5HVXOWDGRV DQDOL]DGRVSRVHHQHQVXPD\RUtDIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVLQWHUPHGLDVSRUORFXDOVH RSWy SRU FRQVLGHUDU WRGRV ORV GHVHTXLOLEULRV LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH GH VX VLJQR SRVLWLYRRQHJDWLYRORFXDOQRVXSRQHXQDPHUPDHQODSRWHQFLDHVWDGtVWLFDSDUD OD GHWHFFLyQ GHO '* &RPR VH PHQFLRQy HQ HO DSDUWDGR GH 0DWHULDO\0pWRGRV H[LVWH XQD PD\RU SRWHQFLD HVWDGtVWLFD SDUD GHWHFWDU GHVHTXLOLEULRV JDPpWLFRV GH VLJQRSRVLWLYRTXHGHVLJQRQHJDWLYRVyORFXDQGRODV IUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHORV ORFL LPSOLFDGRV VH GHVYtDQ VLJQLILFDWLYDPHQWH GH ODV LQWHUPHGLDV %52:1 =$3$7$HWDO=$3$7$HWDOE '*HQWUHSDUHVGH613V (QODILJXUDVHPXHVWUDODGLVWULEXFLyQGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVGHODLQWHQVLGDG GHO'*REVHUYDGRHQWUHSDUHVGH613VPHGLGRHQWpUPLQRVGHOFRHILFLHQWH'¶(Q ODWDEOD VHPXHVWUDQORVHVWDGtVWLFRVGHVFULSWLYRV\ HO DMXVWHDODGLVWULEXFLyQ QRUPDOGHORVYDORUHVGH'¶ )LJXUD'LVWULEXFLyQGHIUHFXHQFLDVGHORV'¶REVHUYDGRV GRQGH1HVHOQ~PHURGHSDUHVGH613VDQDOL]DGRV
5HVXOWDGRV WpUPLQRVGH'¶PD\RUGH$VtSDUHFHTXHOD)5(HQWUHSDUHVGH613VHVWi LQIOX\HQGRWDQWRHQODFDQWLGDGFRPRHQODLQWHQVLGDGGHODVDVRFLDFLRQHV 7DEOD)UHFXHQFLDVGHUHFRPELQDFLyQHIHFWLYDVF0HQWUHSDUHVGH613V(Q VRPEUHDGRVHGHVWDFDQORVSDUHVGHORFLHQ'*VLJQLILFDWLYR /2&86 ,163VW, ,16'UD,,, '5'6PD, +5$61VL, +$OX, +5VD, 5507DT, +%%+LQI, +%*+LQG,,, $57,+SD,, 37+7DT, 7S+'UD,, :7+LQI, 76& 76& 76& 76& ,16'UD,,, '5'6PD, +5$61VL, +$OX, +5VD, '¶ 5507DT, +%%+LQI, +%*+LQG,,, $57,+SD,, 37+7DT, 7S+'UD,, :7+LQI, 76& 76& 76& 76& 76& &RQ HO REMHWR GH DOFDQ]DU XQ DSR\R HVWDGtVWLFR D ODV REVHUYDFLRQHV DQWHULRUHVVHUHDOL]yXQWHVWχHQWDEODVGHFRQWLQJHQFLD[SDUDFRPSUREDUOD H[LVWHQFLDGHXQPD\RUQ~PHURGHDVRFLDFLRQHVQRDOD]DUHQWUHORFLSUy[LPRVTXH HQWUHORFLDOHMDGRV3DUDHVWHILQODPXHVWUDVHGLYLGLyHQGRVJUXSRVHQIXQFLyQGHO JUDGR GH OLJDPLHQWR GH ORV 613V LPSOLFDGRV HQ FDGD KDSORWLSR $Vt SRU ORFL SUy[LPRVHQWHQGHUHPRVORVTXHHVWpQVHSDUDGRVSRUGLVWDQFLDVF0R0E\ SRUORFLDOHMDGRVORVVHSDUDGRVSRUPiVGHF0R0E(VWDGLYLVLyQHQWUHORFL SUy[LPRV\ORFLDOHMDGRV\DKDVLGRXWLOL]DGDHQRWUDVRFDVLRQHVSDUDDERUGDUOD SUREOHPiWLFDGHODUHODFLyQHQWUHHO'*\OD)5(R')3(7(5621HWDO/$$1 \ 3bb%2 /D WDEOD PXHVWUD TXH OD FRPSDUDFLyQ UHVXOWD DOWDPHQWH
5HVXOWDGRV VLJQLILFDWLYDWDQWRFXDQGRVHVHSDUDQORVORFLHQIXQFLyQGHOD)5(FRPRGHOD') 3 7DEOD7HVWχMXQWRDVXSUREDELOLGDG3GHODFRPSDUDFLyQGHOQ~PHURGH DVRFLDFLRQHVVLJQLILFDWLYDV\QRVLJQLILFDWLYDVHQWUHORFLHVWUHFKD\GpELOPHQWH OLJDGRVVHJ~QOD)5(F0\OD')0E F0 !F0 0E !0E 6LJQLILFDWLYRV 1RVLJQLILFDWLYRV χ χχ χ 3 χ χχ χ 3 8Q DVSHFWR LPSRUWDQWH D HOXFLGDU HV FRPSUREDU VL H[LVWH XQD WHQGHQFLD PRQyWRQDKDFLDXQDPHQRULQWHQVLGDGGHO'*FRQXQDPD\RU)5(R')HQWUHORV SDUHV GH 613V &RQ HVWH ILQ VH UHDOL]y XQ DQiOLVLV GH FRUUHODFLyQ HQWUH OD LQWHQVLGDGGHOGHVHTXLOLEULR\OD)5(ROD')6HHPSOHySDUDHOORHOFRHILFLHQWHGH FRUUHODFLyQ SDUDPpWULFR U GH 3HDUVRQ \ HO FRHILFLHQWH GH FRUUHODFLyQ QR SDUDPpWULFRGHUDQJRVτGH.HQGDOOODSUREDELOLGDGVHREWXYRDSOLFDQGRHOWHVWGH 0DQWHO(OHVWXGLRGHWHFWyTXHWDQWRFRQOD)5(FRPRFRQOD')ODFRUUHODFLyQHV QHJDWLYD \ DOWDPHQWH VLJQLILFDWLYD 3 FRPRFDEUtD HVSHUDUHQEDVHDOD WHRUtD JHQpWLFR SREODFLRQDO WDEOD 3RU WDQWRDO PHQRV HQ HOEUD]RFRUWRGHO FURPRVRPDSDUHFHTXHODUHFRPELQDFLyQHMHUFHXQHIHFWRSUHGRPLQDQWHVREUH RWURV IDFWRUHV HYROXWLYRV DO KRPRJHQHL]DU ODV IUHFXHQFLDV JDPpWLFDV GH ORFL OR VXILFLHQWHPHQWHVHSDUDGRVHQHOFURPRVRPD /RV UHVXOWDGRV DQWHULRUHV DSR\DQ HVWDGtVWLFDPHQWH OD H[LVWHQFLD GH XQD UHODFLyQHQWUHODFDQWLGDGHLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*FRQOD)5(\OD')$GHPiVHVWRV UHVXOWDGRVVXJLHUHQTXHORVGHVHTXLOLEULRVVLJQLILFDWLYRVGHWHFWDGRVHQWUHSDUHVGH 613VQRVRQHVS~UHRV6LHO'*KXELHVHVLGRJHQHUDGRVyORSRUD]DURHUURUGH PXHVWUHR ORV '* HVWDUtDQ GLVWULEXLGRV DOHDWRULDPHQWH D OR ODUJR GH OD UHJLyQ DQDOL]DGD3RUHOFRQWUDULRORVGHVHTXLOLEULRVSDUHFHQHVWDUGLVWULEXLGRVDORODUJR GHSHQIXQFLyQGHOD)5(\OD')
5HVXOWDGRV 7DEOD&RUUHODFLyQGHORV'¶VLJQLILFDWLYRVFRQODIUHFXHQFLD GHUHFRPELQDFLyQ)5(\GLVWDQFLDItVLFD')6HLQGLFDHO FRHILFLHQWHUGH3HDUVRQHOFRHILFLHQWHGHUDQJRVτGH.HQGDOO\ ODSUREDELOLGDG3FDOFXODGDPHGLDQWHHOWHVWGH0DQWHO1 LQGLFDHOQ~PHURGHDVRFLDFLRQHVQRDOD]DUVLJQLILFDWLYDV 1 U τ ττ τ3 )5( ') /DILJXUDPXHVWUDJUiILFDPHQWHODFRUUHODFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'* PHGLGDHQWpUPLQRVGH'¶FRQOD)5(\OD')6HREVHUYDXQDWHQGHQFLDKDFLD XQDPHQRULQWHQVLGDGGHODVDVRFLDFLRQHVDODXPHQWDUODGLVWDQFLDHQWUHORV613V (VWDUHSUHVHQWDFLyQJUiILFDVXJLHUHTXHODUHODFLyQHQWUHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*\OD )5(R')HQWUHORVSDUHVGH613VQRHVPRQyWRQD/DFRUUHODFLyQVLJQLILFDWLYDVH PDQWLHQHSRUHOHIHFWR TXHHMHUFHQHQODFRUUHODFLyQORVFXDWURSDUHVGH613V HVWUHFKDPHQWHOLJDGRVTXHSUHVHQWDQXQYDORUGH'¶HOHYDGR!$VtHOYDORU GHτHVPiVHOHYDGRTXHUORTXHGHQRWDTXHODUHODFLyQQRVLJXHXQDWHQGHQFLD OLQHDOVLQRFXUYLOtQHD ') ' )5( ' )LJXUD*UiILFDVGHODFRUUHODFLyQGHODLQWHQVLGDGGHO'*Ň'¶ŇFRQOD)5(\OD') Ň'¶Ň Ň'¶Ň
5HVXOWDGRV (678',2'(/'*(175(3$5(6'(/2&,0,&526$7e/,7(6 $QiOLVLVGHODYDULDELOLGDG\HVWUXFWXUDJHQpWLFDSREODFLRQDO (O DQiOLVLV GH OD HVWUXFWXUD JHQpWLFD SREODFLRQDO DGHPiV GH WHQHU LQWHUpV SRU Vt PLVPD VHUi GH JUDQ D\XGD D OD KRUD GH LQWHUSUHWDU ORV UHVXOWDGRV HQ ORV SDWURQHV GHO '* D OR ODUJR GH S 3RU RWUR ODGR HO FXPSOLPLHQWR GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV +DUG\:HLQEHUJ QRV DVHJXUDUi XQD HVWLPDFLyQ ILDEOHGHODV IUHFXHQFLDVKDSORWtSLFDVDSOLFDQGRHODOJRULWPR(0 (QODWDEODVHPXHVWUDHOQ~PHURGHDOHORVGHWHFWDGRVHQODPXHVWUD\VX IUHFXHQFLD UHODWLYD SDUD FDGD XQR GH ORV ORFL PLFURVDWpOLWHV DQDOL]DGRV DVt FRPRHOWDPDxRGHFDGDXQRGHHOORVHQSE(OQ~PHURGHDOHORVSRUORFXVIXHHQ JHQHUDODOWR\RVFLOyHQWUH'6\'6FRQXQYDORUPHGLRGH DOHORV SRU ORFXV (VWH Q~PHUR GH DOHORV SRU ORFXV KD VLGR OLJHUDPHQWH VXSHULRUDOSUHYLDPHQWHHQFRQWUDGRSDUDHVRVORFL',%HWDOSUREDEOHPHQWH GHELGR DO PD\RU WDPDxR GH PXHVWUD DQDOL]DGR HQ HO SUHVHQWH HVWXGLR /DV IUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVUHODWLYDVRVFLODURQHQWUH\FRQXQYDORUPHGLRGH 6HSXHGHREVHUYDUTXHHQFDVLWRGRVORVORFLDSDUHFHQDOHORVTXH VHGHWHFWDQXQDVRODYH]HQODPXHVWUDHQFXUVLYDHQODWDEOD/DIUHFXHQFLD GHHVWRVDOHORVGHFRSLD~QLFDRVLQJOHWRQVSDUDHOFRQMXQWRGHORVORFLIXHGHO /DSUHVHQFLDGHHVWRVVLQJOHWRQVSRGUtDVHUGHELGDDODHOHYDGDWDVD PXWDFLRQDOTXHSRVHHQORVPLFURVDWpOLWHV',5,(1=2HWDO(VWRVVLQJOHWRQV VH HOLPLQDURQ GHO DQiOLVLV GHO '* SRU ODV UD]RQHV TXH VH GHWDOODUiQ SRVWHULRUPHQWH 8QD YH] HOLPLQDGRV ORV VLQJOHWRQV ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV SUHVHQWDURQXQUDQJRHQWUH\FRQXQDIUHFXHQFLDSURPHGLRSDUDWRGRV ORVORFLGH
5HVXOWDGRV 7DEOD)UHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHORVORFLPLFURVDWpOLWHV $OHOR )5HO $OHOR )5HO $OHOR )5HO $OHOR )5HO '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6
5HVXOWDGRV 7DEODFRQWLQXDFLyQ $OHOR )UHF 5HODW $OHOR )UHF 5HODW $OHOR )UHF 5HODW $OHOR )UHF 5HODW '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 '6 (Q OD ILJXUD VH HQFXHQWUDQ UHSUHVHQWDGDV ODV GLVWULEXFLRQHV GH ODV IUHFXHQFLDVGHORVWDPDxRVGHFDGDDOHORSRUORFXV(OWDPDxRGHORVDOHORVFXEUH XQDPSOLRUDQJRFRQXQYDORUPtQLPRGHSE'6XQYDORUPi[LPRGH SE'6\XQWDPDxRPHGLRSDUDHOFRQMXQWRGHORVORFLGH SE1LQJXQDGLVWULEXFLyQVHDMXVWDDODQRUPDOLGDGVHJ~QHOWHVWGH.ROPRJRURY 6PLUQRY3 6HSXHGH REVHUYDUTXH HQDOJXQRVFDVRV ODV GLVWULEXFLRQHV SUHVHQWDQ XQ FDUiFWHU ELPRGDO GHELGR D OD H[LVWHQFLD GH GRV JUXSRV GH DOHORV
5HVXOWDGRV GLIHUHQFLDEOHV SRU VX WDPDxR \ VHSDUDGRV SRU FODVHV DOpOLFDV GH WDPDxR LQWHUPHGLR DXVHQWHV HQ OD PXHVWUD R HQ PX\ EDMD IUHFXHQFLD (VWH WLSR GH GLVWULEXFLyQ VH REVHUYD PiV FODUDPHQWH HQ HO ORFXV '6 GRQGH OD FODVH DOpOLFD PiV IUHFXHQWH DOHOR VH HQFXHQWUD VHSDUDGD GHO UHVWR SRU YDULDV FODVHV DOpOLFDV GH WDPDxR LQWHUPHGLR DXVHQWHV HQ OD PXHVWUD 6H KD SRVWXODGR TXHHQDOJXQRVFDVRVODVGLVWULEXFLRQHVELPRGDOHVSRGUtDQHVWDUFDXVDGDVSRU GRVVXEJUXSRVGHDOHORVFRQDOJXQDGLIHUHQFLDHQVXVHFXHQFLDGHPDQHUDTXH ORV DOHORV GH XQ JUXSR QR SRGUtDQ PXWDU D DOHORV GHO RWUR JUXSR\YLFHYHUVD %5,1.0$1HWDO&XDOTXLHUGLVWULEXFLyQDOpOLFDHVHOUHVXOWDGRGHXQSURFHVR PXWDFLRQDOTXHJHQHUDQXHYRVDOHORVMXQWRFRQODGHULYDJHQpWLFD\ODVHOHFFLyQ PRGHODQGR ODV IUHFXHQFLDV DOpOLFDV $GHPiV IDFWRUHV GH OD KLVWRULD SREODFLRQDO FRPRFXHOORVGHERWHOODUiSLGRFUHFLPLHQWRSREODFLRQDO\PLJUDFLyQSRGUtDQMXJDU XQLPSRUWDQWHSDSHO6+5,9(5HWDO9$/'(6HWDO67(3+$1\.,0 6&+/g77(5(5&$/$%5(6(HWDO+8$1*HWDO(//(*5(1;8 \)8
5HVXOWDGRV )LJXUD'LVWULEXFLRQHVGHODVIUHFXHQFLDVDOpOLFDVGHORVPLFURVDWpOLWHVDQDOL]DGRV
5HVXOWDGRV )LJXUDFRQWLQXDFLyQ
5HVXOWDGRV (Q OD WDEOD VH PXHVWUDQ ODV HVWLPDV GH YDULDELOLGDG SDUD FDGD PLFURVDWpOLWHDQDOL]DGR DVtFRPR OD PDJQLWXG\VLJQLILFDFLyQGH ODV GHVYLDFLRQHV GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV +: SRU ORFXV /RV PLFURVDWpOLWHV SRVHHQ XQ DOWR QLYHO GH YDULDELOLGDGFRPRFDEUtDHVSHUDUDOHVWDUDQWHORFLPXOWLDOpOLFRV/DKHWHUR]LJRVLV REVHUYDGD YDUtD WUHPHQGDPHQWH HQWUH ORV ORFL FRQ XQ PtQLPR GH KHWHUR]LJRVLV REVHUYDGDGH'6\XQPi[LPRGH'6/DPHGLDGHOD KHWHUR]LJRVLVREVHUYDGDSDUDHOFRQMXQWRGHORVORFLUHVXOWyEDVWDQWHHOHYDGDFRQ XQYDORUGH (VWHQLYHO GHKHWHUR]LJRVLVKDVLGR REVHUYDGRHQRWUDV RFDVLRQHVHQ GLIHUHQWHVHVWXGLRVFRQPLFURVDWpOLWHV'(.$HW DO ',%HW DO /DVKHWHUR]LJRVLVREVHUYDGD\HVSHUDGDSDUDFDGDXQRGHORVORFLSRVHHQ XQD EXHQD FRQFRUGDQFLD 'H KHFKR ORV SURPHGLRV SDUD HO FRQMXQWR GH ORV ORFL SUHVHQWDQ HO PLVPR YDORU /DV GHVYLDFLRQHV GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV +: PHGLGDV PHGLDQWH HO FRHILFLHQWH I752%(57621\+,// IXHURQ HQ JHQHUDO EDMDV \ RVFLODURQ HQ YDORU DEVROXWR HQWUH '6 \ '6 FRQ XQ YDORU PHGLR GH (VWDV GHVYLDFLRQHV QR VRQ VLJQLILFDWLYDV HQ QLQJ~Q FDVR H[FHSWR HQ ORV ORFL '6 \ '6 3 (QDPERVPLFURVDWpOLWHVODVGHVYLDFLRQHVVHGHEHQDODSUHVHQFLDGHDOHORV HQPX\EDMDIUHFXHQFLDLQIHULRUDODOHORV\HQ'6\DOHOR HQ'6HQODWDEOD(OHVWXGLRGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVGHODVSURSRUFLRQHV +:SRUDOHORHQWpUPLQRVGHOFRHILFLHQWHILL52%(57621\+,//PRVWUyTXH HQHVWRVWUHVFDVRVODVGHVYLDFLRQHVVRQPX\HOHYDGDVSRVLWLYDV\VLJQLILFDWLYDV \ UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH YpDVH +(50,'$ =$3$7$HW DO E (O H[FHVR VLJQLILFDWLYR GH KRPR]LJRWRV GHWHFWDGR HQ DPERV ORFL HVWi RFDVLRQDGR SRU OD H[LVWHQFLD GH XQ LQGLYLGXR KRPR]LJRWR SDUD FDGD XQR GH ORV DOHORVPHQFLRQDGRVVLHQGRVXPDPHQWHEDMRHOYDORUHVSHUDGRGHHVRVJHQRWLSRV 3RU WDQWR ODV GHVYLDFLRQHV VLJQLILFDWLYDV GH ODV SURSRFLRQHV +: HQ ORV ORFL '6 \ '6 HVWiQ RFDVLRQDGDV SRU ODV OLPLWDFLRQHV HVWDGtVWLFDV GHO WHVWχFXDQGRORVYDORUHVHVSHUDGRVVRQPX\EDMRV/(66,26$OH[DPLQDU ODVGHVYLDFLRQHVSRUDOHORHQWRGRVORVORFLHQWpUPLQRVGHILLODPDJQLWXGGHODV GHVYLDFLRQHV HV EDMD HQ JHQHUDO FRQ XQ UDQJR GH D DOHOR GH '6 \ XQD PHGLD GH 6yOR XQ SUHVHQWDURQ GHVYLDFLRQHV VLJQLILFDWLYDV GH ODV SURSRUFLRQHV +: 7UHV GH HOORV VRQ ORV
%LEOLRJUDItD +(51È1'(=-/:(,5%6$GLVHTXLOLEULXPFRHIILFLHQWDSSURDFKWR+DUG\:HLQEHUJ WHVWLQJ%LRPHWULFV± +,// : * (VWLPDWLRQ RI OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP LQ UDQGRPO\ PDWLQJ SRSXODWLRQV +HUHGLW\± +,//:*52%(57621$/LQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQILQLWHSRSXODWLRQV7KHRUHWLFDO DQG$SSOLHG*HQHWLFV± +2%$135.(/6(<$03VW,SRO\PRUSKLVPZLWKLQWKH¶XQWUDQVODWHGUHJLRQRIWKH LQVXOLQJHQHGHWHFWDEOHE\WKHSRO\PHUDVHFKDLQUHDFWLRQ,161XF$FLGV5HV +2%$1356$17,%$1(=.25()0).(/6(<$01XF$FLGV5HV +2(/=(/$50ROHFXODUJHQHWLFDQDO\VLVRISRSXODWLRQV2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV +2860$1'\/('/(< :K\SKDUPDFRJHQRPLFV":K\QRZ" 1DWXUH %LRWHFKQRORJ\ ± +28:(15+-%$+$5/226%/$1.(16+,3.5$(<0$(.(563-8<1-6$1'.8,-//$ )5(,0(51%*HQRPHVFUHHQLQJE\VHDUFKLQJIRUVKDUHGVHJPHQWVPDSSLQJ DJHQHIRUEHQLJQUHFXUUHQWLQWUDKHSDWLFFKROHVWDVLV1DWXUH*HQHWLFV± +8$1*4<;8)+6+(1+'(1*+</,8<-/,8<=/,-/5(&.(555'(1*+ :0XWDWLRQSDWWHUQVDWGLQXFOHRWLGHPLFURVDWHOOLWHORFLLQKXPDQV$P-+XP *HQHW± +877/(< *$60,7+ 0:&$55,1*721 02%5,(1 6- $ VFDQ IRU OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXPDFURVVWKHKXPDQJHQRPH*HQHWLFV± ,2$11,',6 -317=$1, ((75,.$/,126 7$&2172328/26,2$11,',6 '* 5HSOLFDWLRQYDOLGLW\RIJHQHWLFDVVRFLDWLRQVWXGLHV1DW*HQHW± ,2$11,',6-375,.$/,1267$17=$1,((&2172328/26,2$11,',6'**HQHWLF DVVRFLDWLRQV LQ ODUJH YHUVXV VPDOO VWXGLHV DQ HPSLULFDO DVVHVVPHQW /DQFHW ± -())5(<6$-.$833,/1(80$115,QWHQVHO\SXQFWXDWHPHLRWLFUHFRPELQDWLRQLQ WKHFODVV,,UHJLRQRIWKHPDMRUKLVWRFRPSDWLELOLW\FRPSOH[1DWXUH*HQHWLFV± -())5(<6 $ - 5,7&+,($1(80$11 5 +LJK UHVROXWLRQ DQDO\VLV RI KDSORW\SH GLYHUVLW\DQGPHLRWLFFURVVRYHULQWKHKXPDQ7$3UHFRPELQDWLRQKRWVSRW+XP0RO *HQHW± -2+1621*&(6326,72/%$55$77%-60,7+$1+(:$5'-',*(129$*8('$+ &25'(// +-($9(6 ,$'8'%5,'*( )7:(//6 5&3$<1( )+8*+(6 : 187/$1'667(9(16+&$5537820,/(+72:2/)(7820,/(+72-*28*+6& &/$<721'*72''-$+DSORW\SHWDJJLQJIRUWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIFRPPRQ GLVHDVHJHQHV1DW*HQHW±
%LEOLRJUDItD -25'( / % /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP DV D JHQHPDSSLQJ WRRO $P-+XP*HQHW± -25'( /% /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP DQG WKH VHDUFK IRU FRPSOH[ GLVHDVH JHQHV *HQRPH5HVHDUFK± -25'( /%:$7.,16 :6.(5( -1<0$1 '(5,.6621 $: *HQH PDSSLQJ LQ LVRODWHGSRSXODWLRQVQHZUROHVIRUROGIULHQGV"+XP+HUHG± -25'( /%:$7.,16 :69,6.2&+,/ '2&211(// 3:$5' . /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP LQ WKH QHXURILEURPDWRVLV 1) UHJLRQ LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU JHQH PDSSLQJ$P-+XP*HQHW± -25'(/%:$7.,16:6&$5/6210*52'(1-$/%(576(1+7+/,9(5,6$/(33(570 /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP SUHGLFWV SK\VLFDO GLVWDQFH LQ WKH DGHQRPDWRXV SRO\SRVLVFROLUHJLRQ$P-+XP*HQHW± .$(660$11 ++(,66,* )921+$(6(/(5 $3$$%2 6'1$VHTXHQFHYDULDWLRQLQD QRQFRGLQJUHJLRQ RIORZUHFRPELQDWLRQRQWKHKXPDQ;FKURPRVRPH1DW*HQHW ± .$(660$11+=2//1(56*867$)6621$&:,(%(9/$$10/81'(%(5*-8+/(10 3$$%2 6 ([WHQVLYH OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP LQ VPDOO KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQV LQ (XUDVLD$P-+XP*HQHW± .$3/$11/+8'62155/$1*/(<&+7KHKLWFKKLNLQJHIIHFWUHYLVLWHG*HQHWLFV ± .$5/,1 6 (TXLOLEULXP %HKDYLRXU RI 3RSXODWLRQ *HQHWLFV 0RGHOV ZLWK 1RQUDQGRP 0DWLQJ*RUGRQ\%UHDFK1HZ<RUN .$6+, <.,1* '62//(5 0 6LPSOH VHTXHQFH UHSHDWV DV D VRXUFH RI TXDQWLWDWLYH JHQHWLFYDULDWLRQ7UHQGV*HQHW± .$833,/6$-$17,/$$-())5(<6$-5HFRPELQDWLRQKRWVSRWVUDWKHUWKDQSRSXODWLRQ KLVWRU\GRPLQDWHOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQWKH0+&FODVV,,UHJLRQ+XP0RO*HQHW ± .(;+81767$33(5:/$:5(1&(567$95,'(6**+25,-:+,77$.(53&2//,16$ 0255,6 $3%(17/(< '&$5'21 /5'(/28.$6 3 7KH LPSDFW RI 613 GHQVLW\RQILQHVFDOHSDWWHUQVRIOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXP+XP0RO*HQHW ± .(1'$//)%$678$57$7KH$GYDQFHG7KHRU\RI6WDWLVWLFV9RO,QIHUHQFHDQG 5HODWLRQVKLS&KDUOHV*ULIILQ&RPSDQ\/RQGRQ .(5(0 %5200(16 -0%8&+$1$1 -$0$5.,(:,&= '&2; 7.&+$.5$9$57, $ %8&+:$/' 0768, / & ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH F\VWLF ILEURVLV JHQH JHQHWLF DQDO\VLV6FLHQFH± .(5(0%6=,(/(16.,-0$5.,(:,&='%2=21'*$=,7(<$+$9-.(11('<'5,25'$1 -5&2//,16 )65200(16 -0768, /&,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIPXWDWLRQVLQ
%LEOLRJUDItD UHJLRQVFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHWZRSXWDWLYHQXFOHRWLGH$73ELQGLQJIROGVRIWKHF\VWLF ILEURVLVJHQH3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$± .,''-53$.67,6$-=+$2+/85%2.212)8$)(2'816,$*5,*25(1.2(7$0,5 %%)5,('/$(1'(5 -6&+8/= /23$51$6 -.,'' .. +DSORW\SHV DQG OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP DW WKH SKHQ\ODODQLQH K\GUR[\ODVH ORFXV 3$+ LQ D JOREDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRISRSXODWLRQV$P-+XP*HQHW± .,00(/ 0&+$.5$%257< 5 0HDVXUHV RI YDULDWLRQ DW '1$ UHSHDW ORFL XQGHU D JHQHUDOVWHSZLVHPXWDWLRQPRGHO7KHRU3RSXO%LRO± .,00(/ 0&+$.5$%257< 567,9(56 '1'(.$ 5 '\QDPLFV RI UHSHDW SRO\PRUSKLVPV XQGHU D IRUZDUGEDFNZDUG PXWDWLRQ PRGHO ZLWKLQ DQG EHWZHHQ SRSXODWLRQYDULDELOLW\DWPLFURVDWHOOLWHORFL*HQHWLFV± .,00(/ 0&+$.5$%257< 5.,1* -3%$06+$' 0:$7.,16 :6-25'( /% 6LJQDWXUHV RI SRSXODWLRQH[SDQVLRQLQPLFURVDWHOOLWHUHSHDWGDWD *HQHWLFV ± .,1* -60257,0(5 5. $ SRO\PHUL]DWLRQ PRGHO RI FKLDVPD LQWHUIHUHQFH DQG FRUUHVSRQGLQJFRPSXWHUVLPXODWLRQ*HQHWLFV± .2-,0$.6&+$))(5+)6XUYLYDOSURFHVVHVRIOLQNHGPXWDQWJHQHV(YROXWLRQ ± .21'2 068=8., +8('$ 526$'$ +7$.$*, .7$.$+$6+, 77$.$+$6+, 7 )UHTXHQW ORVV RI LPSULQWLQJ RI WKH + JHQH LV RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LWV RYHUH[SUHVVLRQLQKXPDQOXQJFDQFHUV2QFRJHQH± .26$0%, '' 7KH (VWLPDWLRQ RI 0DS 'LVWDQFHV IURP 5HFRPELQDWLRQ 9DOXHV $QQ (XJHQ/RQG± .58*/<$.//$1'(5(6+LJKUHVROXWLRQJHQHWLFPDSSLQJRIFRPSOH[WUDLWV$P- +XP*HQHW± .58*/<$./1,&.(5621'$9DULDWLRQLVWKHVSLFHRIOLIH1DW*HQHW± .58*/<$./7KHXVHRIDJHQHWLFPDSRIELDOOHOLFPDUNHUVLQOLQNDJHVWXGLHV1DWXUH *HQHWLFV± .58*/<$.6'855(77576&+8*0'$48$'52&)(TXLOLEULXPGLVWULEXWLRQVRI PLFURVDWHOOLWH UHSHDW OHQJWK UHVXOWLQJ IURP D EDODQFH EHWZHHQ VOLSSDJH HYHQWV DQG SRLQWPXWDWLRQV3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$± .58*/<$./3URVSHFWVIRUZKROHJHQRPHOLQNDJHGLVHTXOLOLEULXPPDSSLQJRIFRPPRQ GLVHDVHJHQHV1DWXUH*HQHWLFV± /$$1 03bb%2 6 'HPRJUDSKLF KLVWRU\ DQG OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP LQ KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQV1DWXUH*HQHWLFV± /$1'(5(67KHQHZJHQRPLFVJOREDOYLHZVRIELRORJ\6FLHQFH± /$1'(5(6\6&+25.1-*HQHWLFGLVVHFWLRQRIFRPSOH[WUDLWV6FLHQFH ±
%LEOLRJUDItD /$1*/(<&+60,7+'%-+21621)0$QDO\VLVRIOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULDEHWZHHQ DOOR]\PHORFLLQQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI'URVRSKLODPHODQRJDVWHU*HQHW5HV ± /$56621 $ 2WRVFOHURVLV D JHQHWLF DQG FOLQLFDO VWXG\ $FWD 2WRODU\QJRO 6WRFNK 6XSSO± /(66,26 +$7HVWLQJ HOHFWURSKRUHWLF GDWD IRU WKH DJUHHPHQW ZLWK +DUG\:HLQEHUJ H[SHFWDWLRQV0DULQH%LRORJ\± /(9,1621 **870$1 *$ 6OLSSHGVWUDQG PLVSDLULQJ D PDMRU PHFKDQLVP IRU '1$ VHTXHQFHHYROXWLRQ0RO%LRO(YRO± /(:217,1 5 & 7KH LQWHUDFWLRQ RI VHOHFWLRQ DQG OLQNDJH , *HQHUDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV KHWHURWLFPRGHOV*HQHWLFV± /(:217,15&7KHLQWHUDFWLRQRIVHOHFWLRQDQGOLQNDJH,,2SWLPXPPRGHOV*HQHWLFV ± /(:217,1 5& 7KH*HQHWLF %DVLV RI (YROXWLRQDU\ &KDQJH &ROXPELD 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV1HZ<RN /(:217,15&3RSXODWLRQV*HQHWLFV$QQ5HY*HQHW± /(:217,15&2Q0HDVXUHVRI*DPHWLF'LVHTXLOLEULXP*HQHWLFV± /(:217,15&\.2-,0$. 7KHHYROXWLRQDU\ G\QDPLFVRI FRPSOH[SRO\PRUSKLVPV (YROXWLRQ± /, :+&1(, 0 6WDEOH OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP ZLWKRXW HSLVWDVLV LQ VXEGLYLGHG SRSXODWLRQV7KHRUHWLFDO3RSXODWLRQ%LRORJ\± /,:+*2-2%25,71(,03VHXGRJHQHVDVDSDUDGLJPRIQHXWUDOHYROXWLRQ1DWXUH ± /,&&+259,7='*6RPH0HWKRGVRI(VWLPDWLQJWKH,QEUHHGLQJ&RHIILFLHQW$P -+XP*HQHW± /,:0ROHFXODU(YROXWLRQ6LQDXHU6XQGHUODQG0$ /,:+\6$'/(5/$/RZQXFOHRWLGHGLYHUVLW\LQPDQ*HQHWLFV± /,77 0-25'( /% /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULD EHWZHHQ SDLUV RI ORFL ZLWKLQ D KLJKO\ SRO\PRUSKLFUHJLRQRIFKURPRVRPH4$P-+XP*HQHW± /2+08(//(5 .(3($5&( &/3,.( 0/$1'(5 (6+,56&++251 -1 0HWD DQDO\VLVRIJHQHWLFDVVRFLDWLRQVWXGLHVVXSSRUWVDFRQWULEXWLRQRIFRPPRQYDULDQWVWR VXVFHSWLELOLW\WRFRPPRQGLVHDVH1DWXUH*HQHWLFV± /21* -&:,//,$06 5&85%$1(. 0$Q(0DOJRULWKPDQGWHVWLQJVWUDWHJ\IRU PXOWLSOHORFXVKDSORW\SHV$P-+XP*HQHW±
%LEOLRJUDItD /21*0$7( -$ &RPSOH[LW\ DQG SRZHU LQ FDVHFRQWURO DVVRFLDWLRQ VWXGLHV $P - +XP*HQHW± /28,6(-'(0367(5(5$QH[DFWWHVWIRU+UG\:HLQEHUJDQGPXOWLSOHDOOHOHV %LRPHWULFV± /8<+1Ê*5(68VHRIJO\FHUROIRUHQKDQFHGHIILFLHQF\DQGVSHFLILFLW\RI3&5 DPSOLILFDWLRQ7HFKQLFDO7LSV 0$1,$7,67-())5(<$9$1'(6$1'(+&KDLQOHQJWKGHWHUPLQDWLRQRIVPDOOGRXEOH DQG VLQJOHVWUDQGHG '1$ PROHFXOHV E\ SRO\DFU\ODPLGH JHO HOHFWURSKRUHVLV %LRFKHPLVWU\± 0$1,$7,61&2//,16$*,%621-=+$1*:7$33(5:0257211(3RVLWLRQDO FORQLQJE\OLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXP$P-+XP*HQHW± 0$57,1 (5/$, (+*,/%(57 -552*$/$ $5$)6+$5, $-5,/(< -),1&+ ./ 67(9(16-)/,9$..-6/277(5%(&.%'6/,)(56+:$55(1//&211($//< 306&+0(&+(/ '(3859,6 ,3(5,&$.9$1&( 0$526(6 $'9$1&( -0 613LQJ DZD\ DW FRPSOH[ GLVHDVHV DQDO\VLV RI VLQJOHQXFOHRWLGH SRO\PRUSKLVPVDURXQG$32(LQ$O]KHLPHUGLVHDVH$P-+XP*HQHW± 0$57,1(=$5,$6 5&$/$)(// )0$7(8 (&20$6 '$1'5(6 $%(575$13(7,7 - 6HTXHQFHYDULDELOLW\RIDKXPDQSVHXGRJHQH*HQRPH5HV± 0$7,6(7&6$&+,'$1$1'$05&/$5.$*.58*/<$./:,-60$1(.$.2/-%8<6.(6 &+8,%&2+(13'(720$&(+00*/$12:6.,6+(&+(,/-0$5.,$126. 0&08//(1,3(5,&$.9$1&(0$6,/%(5*/(,7$67(,1/:$*1(50:,/621$ ):,1,&.-':,11'((1(6<$0$6+,52&7&$11+0/$,(+2/'(1$/ $ FHQWLPRUJDQUHVROXWLRQ KXPDQ VLQJOHQXFOHRWLGH SRO\PRUSKLVP OLQNDJH PDSDQGVFUHHQLQJVHW$P-+XP*HQHW± 0$<&$ 6+21($ &.$/$<'-,(9$ /6$-$17,/$$\-())5(<6 $ - &URVVRYHU FOXVWHULQJDQGUDSLGGHFD\RIOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQWKH;S<SSVHXGRDXWRVRPDO JHQH6+2;1DWXUH*HQHWLFV± 0$<1$5'60,7+ -+$,*+ - 7KH KLWFKKLNLQJ (IIHFW RI D )DYRXUDEOH *HQH *HQHW 5HV± 0&.(11$0-.5,67,$16(1 $*%$57/(< 0/52*86 --+$,1(6 -/$VVRFLDWLRQRI &2/$ DQG RWRVFOHURVLV HYLGHQFH IRU D VKDUHG JHQHWLF HWLRORJ\ZLWKPLOG RVWHRJHQHVLVLPSHUIHFWD$P-2WRO± 0&.(11$ 0-.5,67,$16(1 $*7523,7=6&+ $66LPLODU&2/$H[SUHVVLRQLQ ILEUREODVWV IURP VRPH SDWLHQWV ZLWK FOLQLFDO RWRVFOHURVLV DQG WKRVH ZLWK W\SH , RVWHRJHQHVLVLPSHUIHFWD$QQ2WRO5KLQRO/DU\QJRO± 0&3+((-5*25'210$58%(15-9$1'(:$7(575(YLGHQFHRIDEQRUPDO VWURPHO\VLQ P51$ H[SUHVVLRQ LQ VXVSHFWHG FDUULHUV RI RWRVFOHURVLV $ SRVVLEOH PROHFXODUPDUNHU$UFK2WRODU\QJRO+HDG1HFN6XUJ±
%LEOLRJUDItD 0(1*(5'-7$1*( 5$7KHDHWLRORJ\RIRWRVFOHURVLVDUHYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUH &OLQ2WRODU\QJRO± 0,//(5 5'.:2. 3< 7KH ELUWK DQG GHDWK RI KXPDQ VLQJOHQXFOHRWLGH SRO\PRUSKLVPVQHZH[SHULPHQWDOHYLGHQFHDQGLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUKXPDQKLVWRU\DQG PHGLFLQH+XP0RO*HQHW± 02))$77 0)75$+(51( -$$%(&$6,6 *5&22.621 :2 6LQJOH QXFOHRWLGH SRO\PRUSKLVPDQGOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPZLWKLQWKH7&5DOSKDGHOWDORFXV+XP0RO *HQHW± 02+/.(.//$1*((09$//(77*+26+60$*186219/6,/$1'(5.:$7$1$%(5 0&+,1(6 36%(5*0$1 517820,/(+72 -&2//,16 )6%2(+1.( 0 /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP EHWZHHQ PLFURVDWHOOLWH PDUNHUV H[WHQGV EH\RQG F0 RQ FKURPRVRPHLQ)LQQV*HQRPH5HV± 025*$17(0+$1$)(< 032:(// :0LFURVDWHOOLWHVDUHSUHIHUHQWLDOO\DVVRFLDWHG ZLWKQRQUHSHWLWLYH'1$LQSODQWJHQRPHV1DWXUH*HQHW± 0255,621 $ : *HQHWLF IDFWRUV LQ RWRVFOHURVLV $QQDOV RI WKH 5R\DO &ROOHJH RI 6XUJHRQVRI(QJODQG± 0257,0(55.)2*(/6*HQHWLFDOLQWHUIHUHQFHDQGJHQHFRQYHUVLRQ0HFKDQLVPV LQ5HFRPELQDWLRQ3OHQXP1HZ<RUN 025721 1(&2//,16 $/$:5(1&( 66+,(/'6 '& $OJRULWKPV IRU D ORFDWLRQ GDWDEDVH$QQ+XP*HQHW± 08//(5+-7KHPHFKDQLVPRIFURVVLQJRYHU,,$PHU1DWXUDOLVW± 08//(50$1 -(6+,(/'6 --6$+$ %. &KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ RI WZR QRYHO SRO\PRUSKLVPVDWWKHKXPDQSDUDWK\URLGKRUPRQHJHQHORFXV+XP*HQHW ± 08//,6.%)$/221$)6&+$5)66$,.,5+251*(5/,&++6SHFLILF(Q]\PDWLF $PSOLILFDWLRQ RI '1$ ³LQ YLWUR´ WKH 3RO\PHUDVH &KDLQ 5HDFWLRQ&ROG 6SULQJ +DUE 6\PS4XDQW%LRO3W± 1$&+0$10:6LQJOHQXFOHRWLGHSRO\PRUSKLVPVDQGUHFRPELQDWLRQUDWHLQKXPDQV 7UHQGVLQ*HQHWLFV± 1$&+0$10 :%$8(59/&52:(//6/\$48$'52 & ) '1$ YDULDELOLW\ DQG UHFRPELQDWLRQUDWHVDW;OLQNHGORFLLQKXPDQV*HQHWLFV± 1$*$, 0<26+,'$ $6$72 1 $GGLWLYH HIIHFWV RI ERYLQH VHUXP DOEXPLQ GLWKLRWKUHLWRODQGJO\FHURORQ3&5%LRFKHP0RO%LRO,QW± 1$.$-,0$ 7-25'( /%,6+,*$0, 780(085$ 6(0, 0/$/28(/ -0,128( , 1XFOHRWLGHGLYHUVLW\DQGKDSORW\SHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHKXPDQDQJLRWHQVLQRJHQJHQHLQ WZRSRSXODWLRQV$P-+XP*HQHW± 1$87$0-:(,66,1*)-&RQVWUDLQWVRQDOOHOHVL]HDWPLFURVDWHOOLWHORFLLPSOLFDWLRQV IRUJHQHWLFGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ*HQHWLFV±
%LEOLRJUDItD 1($/(%06+$03&7KHIXWXUHRIDVVRFLDWLRQVWXGLHV*HQHEDVHGDQDO\VLVDQG UHSOLFDWLRQ$P-+XP*HQHW± 1(, 0(VWLPDWLRQ RI $YHUDJH +HWHUR]LJRVLW\ DQG *HQHWLF 'LVWDQFH IURP D 6PDOO 1XPEHURI,QGLYLGXDOV*HQHWLFV± 1(,0/,:+/LQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQVXEGLYLGHGSRSXODWLRQV*HQHWLFV ± 1(, 052<&+28'+85< $. 6DPSOLQJ 9DULDQFHV RI +HWHUR]\JRVLW\ DQG *HQHWLF 'LVWDQFH*HQHWLFV± 1,('(50(<(5 +3$512/' : 2WRVFOHURVLV $ PHDVOHV YLUXV DVVRFLDWHG LPPXQH UHVSRQVHRIWKHLQQHUHDU$FWD2WRODU\QJRO6WRFNK± 125'%25*0\7$9$5e6/LQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPZKDWKLVWRU\KDVWRWHOOXV7UHQGV *HQHWLFV± 12:$.50LQLQJWUHDVXUHVIURPMXQN'1$6FLHQFH± 2*,/9,(5)+$//,62QWKHDHWLRORJ\RIRWRVFOHURVLV-/DU\QJRO2WRO± 2+$6+, -72.81$*$ . 3RZHU RI JHQRPHZLGH OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP WHVWLQJ E\ XVLQJPLFURVDWHOOLWHPDUNHUV-+XP*HQHW± 2+7$7.,085$0/LQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPGXHWRWKHUDQGRPJHQHWLFGULIW*HQHW 5HV± 2+7$7.,085$07KH0RGHORI0XWDWLRQ$SSURSLDWHWR(VWLPDWHWKH1XPEHURI (OHFWURSKRUHWLFDOO\'HWHFWDEOH$OOHOHVLQ*HQHWLF3RSXODWLRQ*HQHW5HV± 2+7$7.,085$07KHHIIHFWRIVHOHFWHGOLQNHGORFXVRQKHWHUR]\JRVLW\RIQHXWUDO DOOHOHVWKHKLWFKKLNLQJHIIHFW*HQHW5HV± 2+7$7/LQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPZLWKWKHLVODQGPRGHO*HQHWLFV 2+7$ 7 /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP GXH WR UDQGRP JHQHWLF GULIW LQ ILQLWH VXEGLYLGHG SRXODWLRQV3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$± 277-5$%,12:,7='7KHHIIHFWRIPDUNHUKHWHUR]LJRVLW\RQWKHSRZHUWRGHWHFW OLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXP*HQHWLFV± 277 - $QDO\VLV RI +XPDQ *HQHWLF /LQNDJH 7KH -RKQV +RSNLQV 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV %DOWLPRUH 277-3UHGLFWLQJWKHUDQJHRIOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXP3URF1DWO$FDG6FL86$ ± 3bb%267KHPRVDLFWKDWLVRXUJHQRPH1DWXUH±
%LEOLRJUDItD 3$2/21,*,$&2%,12 $0287+21 '/$0%(5&< &9(66$= 0&287$17=,00(5/, 6 58'2/3+ :0$/$)266( $%85(6, & ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ DQG DQDO\VLV RI QHZ VHTXHQFHYDULDQWVLQWKHKXPDQWU\SWRSKDQK\GUR[\ODVH7S+JHQH0RO3V\FKLDWU\ ± 3$7,/1%(512$-+,1'6'$%$55(77:$'26+,-0+$&.(5&5.$87=(5&5 /(('+0$5-25,%$1.6&0&'2128*+'31*8<(1%71255,60&6+((+$1 -%6+(1167(51'672.2:6.,537+20$6'-758/621029<$6.5 )5$=(5 .$)2'25 63&2; '5 %ORFNV RI OLPLWHG KDSORW\SH GLYHUVLW\ UHYHDOHGE\KLJKUHVROXWLRQVFDQQLQJRIKXPDQFKURPRVRPH6FLHQFH ± 3$77(5621 1+$77$1*$', 1/$1( %/2+08(//(5 .(+$)/(5 '$2.6(1%(5* -5 +$86(5 6/60,7+ 0:2%5,(1 6-$/76+8/(5 ''$/< 0-5(,&+ ' 0HWKRGVIRUKLJKGHQVLW\DGPL[WXUHPDSSLQJRIGLVHDVHJHQHV$P-+XP*HQHW ± 3$<6(85%$1$&+0$10:0LFURVDWHOOLWHYDULDWLRQDQGUHFRPELQDWLRQUDWHLQWKH KXPDQJHQRPH*HQHWLFV± 3('(5621 80(/6(1 )(/%521' 2&+$5/(6 3 +LVWRSDWKRORJ\ RI WKH VWDSHV LQ RVWHRJHQHVLV-/DU\QJRO2WRO± 3(3( * $ KLJKO\ SRO\PRUSKLF $&7Q 9175 YDULDEOH QXPEHU RI WDQGHP UHSHDWV ORFXV LQVLGH LQWURQ RI &2/$ RQH RI WKH WZR JHQHV LQYROYHG LQ IRPLQDQW RVWHRJHQHVLVLPSHUIHFWD+XP0XW± 3(3( *5,&.$5'6 2-2',&( &02',$12 * $OOHOH DQG KDSORW\SH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH (FR5, 5VD, DQG 0VS, &2/$ 5)/3V DPRQJ YDULRXV KXPDQ SRSXODWLRQV+XP%LRO± 3(7(56(1 '&/$7(1 $=(,(5 0'*5,0:22' $5(16%85* (-+$<(6 90 1RYHO PXWDWLRQV DQG 613V LGHQWLILHG LQ &&5 XVLQJ D QHZ FRPSUHKHQVLYH GHQDWXULQJJUDGLHQWJHOHOHFWURSKRUHVLVDVVD\+XP0XWDW± 3(7(5621$&',5,(1=2$/(+(6-2.,$('(/$&+$3(//($6/$7.,10)5(,0(51% 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP RYHU DQRQ\PRXV JHQRPH UHJLRQV +XP0RO*HQHW± 3(7521,6$9$172/++0.(11('<-/$6PD,3&55)/3LQWKH¶QRQFRGLQJ UHJLRQRIWKHKXPDQ''RSDPLQ5HFHSWRUJHQH'5'+XP+HUHG± 3+,//,3606/$:5(1&(56$&+,'$1$1'$050255,6$3%$/',1*'-'21$/'6210 $678'(%$.(5-)$1.(1(5:0$/),6,69.82)6&$0,6$$/3$=25299 6&277.(&$5(<%-)$,7+-.$7$5,*%+$77,+$&<5-0'(52+$11(66,$1 9(/268$&)250$1$0*5(&&210+2&.&5.8(%/(5-0/$7+523-$ 02&./(50$1$&+70$1(35(67,1(6/9$5'(6$+2==$0-*(/)$1'& $%52;+2/0( -$%(&$6,6 *5%2<&(-$&,12 07&$5'21 /5 &KURPRVRPHZLGHGLVWULEXWLRQRIKDSORW\SHEORFNVDQGWKHUROHRIUHFRPELQDWLRQKRW VSRWV1DWXUH*HQHWLFV±
%LEOLRJUDItD 32//2&.''%(5*0$1 $)(/'0$10:*2/'67(,1 '%0LFURVDWHOOLWHEHKDYLRU ZLWK UDQJH FRQVWUDLQWV SDUDPHWHU HVWLPDWLRQ DQG LPSURYHG GLVWDQFHV IRU XVH LQ SK\ORJHQHWLFUHFRQVWUXFWLRQ7KHRU3RSXO%LRO± 35,00(5 &5(//(*5(1 +3DWWHUQVRIPROHFXODUHYROXWLRQLQDYLDQPLFURVDWHOOLWHV 0RO%LRO(YRO± 35,00(5&56$,12102//(5$3(//(*5(1+'LUHFWLRQDOHYROXWLRQLQJHUPOLQH PLFURVDWHOOLWHPXWDWLRQV1DW*HQHW± 35,1= 06&+0,77 &67$$. 0%$80 + 5HVROXWLRQRI DSROLSRSURWHLQ % UHSHDWXQLW SRVLWLRQ YDULDQWV RQ DJDURVH GHQDWXULQJ DQG QDWLYH SRO\DFU\ODPLGH JHOV (OHFWURSKRUHVLV± 35,7&+$5'-.$UHUDUHYDULDQWVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUVXVFHSWLELOLW\WRFRPSOH[GLVHDVHV" $P-+XP*HQHW± 35,7&+$5'-.&2;1-7KHDOOHOLFDUFKLWHFWXUHRIKXPDQGLVHDVHJHQHVFRPPRQ GLVHDVHFRPPRQYDULDQWRUQRW"+XP0RO*HQHW± 35,7&+$5'-.\35=(:256.,0/LQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQKXPDQV0RGHOVDQGGDWD $P-+XP*HQHW± 35,7&+$5' -.526(1%(5* 1$ 8VH RI XQOLQNHG JHQHWLF PDUNHUV WR GHWHFW SRSXODWLRQVWUDWLILFDWLRQLQDVVRFLDWLRQVWXGLHV$P-+XP*HQHW± 352&.23'-0XWDWLRQVWKDWDOWHUWKHSULPDU\VWUXFWXUHRIW\SH,FROODJHQ7KHSHULOV RI D V\VWHPIRUJHQHUDWLQJ ODUJHVWUXFWXUHV E\WKH SULQFLSOH RI QXFOHDWHG JURZWK - %LRO&KHP± 352&.23'-.,9,5,..2.,&ROODJHQVPROHFXODUELRORJ\GLVHDVHVDQGSRWHQWLDOV IRUWKHUDS\$QQX5HY%LRFKHP± 35=(:256.,07KHVLJQDWXUHRISRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQDWUDQGRPO\FKRVHQORFL*HQHWLFV ± 35=(:256.,0+8'62155',5,(1=2$$GMXVWLQJWKHIRFXVRQKXPDQYDULDWLRQ 7UHQGV*HQHW± 37$.6(92(/3(/.35=(:256.,0,QVLJKWVLQWRUHFRPELQDWLRQIURPSDWWHUQVRI OLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQKXPDQV*HQHWLFV± 5$0(/&0LQLDQGPLFURVDWHOOLWHV(QY+HDOWK3HUVS± 5$<021' 052866(7) $QH[DFWWHVW IRUSRSXODWLRQGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ (YROXWLRQ ± 5(')25'%$':$/'$6729(50/9$//,00&.,1675<0%52:(':1XFOHDU UHWHQWLRQ RI &2/$ PHVVHQJHU 51$ LGHQWLILHV QXOO DOOHOHV FDXVLQJ PLOG RVWHRJHQHVLVLPSHUIHFWD-&OLQ,QYHVW±
%LEOLRJUDItD 5(,&+ '(&$5*,// 0%2/. 6,5(/$1' -6$%(7, 3&5,&+7(5 '-/$9(5< 7 .28<280-,$1 5)$5+$',$1 6):$5' 5/$1'(5 (6 /LQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXPLQWKHKXPDQJHQRPH1DWXUH± 5(,&+'(6&+$))1(56)'$/<0-0&9($1*08//,.,1-&+,**,16-05,&+7(5 '-/$1'(5(6$/76+8/(5'+XPDQJHQRPHVHTXHQFHYDULDWLRQDQGWKH LQIOXHQFH RI JHQH KLVWRU\ PXWDWLRQ DQG UHFRPELQDWLRQ 1DWXUH *HQHWLFV ± 5,&(:5$QDO\VLQJWDEOHVRIVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWV(YROXWLRQ± 5,&+,(./*2/'6%2528*+0''$5)/(500%(1=,1*(5($/29(.$030/5(('(5 '-2&211(//&'/RQJ3&5IRU9175DQDO\VLV-)RUHQVLF6FL ± 5,('(5 0-7$</256/&/$5.$*1,&.(5621'$6HTXHQFHYDULDWLRQLQWKH KXPDQDQJLRWHQVLQFRQYHUWLQJHQ]\PH1DW*HQHW± 5,28;-''$/<0-6,/9(5%(5*06/,1'%/$'.67(,1+$57+&2+(1='(/0217(7 .2&+(5 .0,//(5 .*86&+:$1 6.8/%2.$6 (-2/($5< 6:,1&+(67(5 ( '(:$5 .*5((1 76721( 9&+2: &&2+(1 $/$1*(/,(5 '/$32,17( * *$8'(7')$,7+-%5$1&21%8//6%0&/(2'56*5,)),7+6$0%,7721$ *5((1%(5* *5/$1'(5 (66,0,129,7&+ .$+8'621 7- *HQHWLF YDULDWLRQLQWKHTF\WRNLQHJHQHFOXVWHUFRQIHUVVXVFHSWLELOLW\WR&URKQGLVHDVH 1DW*HQHW± 5,6&+ 1 6HDUFKLQJ IRU JHQHWLF GHWHUPLQDQWV LQ WKH QHZ PLOOHQQLXP 1DWXUH± 5,6&+1\0(5,.$1*$6.7KHIXWXUHRIJHQHWLFVWXGLHVRIFRPSOH[KXPDQGLVHDVHV 6FLHQFH± 52%(57621 $+,// :*'HYLDWLRQVIURP+DUG\:HLQEHUJ3URSRUWLRQV6DPSOLQJ 9DULDQFHV DQG 8VH LQ (VWLPDWLRQ RI ,QEUHHGLQJ &RHIILFLHQWV *HQHWLFV ± 52'5Ë*8(=/+(50,'$-6$1'((52'5Ë*8(=61Òf(=&/2852&0$57Ë1&=$3$7$ &0DUNHUGHSHQGHQWEDFNJURXQGGLVHTXLOLEULXPRQKXPDQFKURPRVRPHS $P-+XP*HQHW6XSO 52'5Ë*8(=/52'5Ë*8(=6+(50,'$-)5$'(&6$1'((9,6('2*0$57Ë1&=$3$7$ & 3URSRVHG DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH &2/$ DQG &2/$ JHQHV DQG RWRVFOHURVLVLVQRWVXSSRUWHGE\DFDVHFRQWUROVWXG\LQ6SDLQ$P-+XP*HQHW $± 52'5Ë*8(= 69,6('2 *=$3$7$ &'HWHFWLRQ RI (UURUV LQ 'LQXFOHRWLGH 5HSHDW 7\SLQJE\1RQGHQDWXULQJ(OHFWURSKRUHVLV(OHFWURSKRUHVLV± 52'5Ë*8(= 6=$3$7$ & 7\SLQJ 'LQXFOHRWLGH 5HSHDWV 8QGHU 1RQGHQDWXULQJ &RQGLWLRQV 8,7 6LQJOH%DVH 5HVROXWLRQ DQG +LJK 6L]LQJ 3UHFLVLRQ 0ROHFXODU %LRWHFKQRORJ\±
%LEOLRJUDItD :$77(5621*$\*8(66+$,VWKHPRVWIUHTXHQWDOOHOHWKHROGHVW"7KHRU3RSXO %LRO± :(%(5-/0$<3($EXQGDQWFODVVRIKXPDQ'1$SRO\PRUSKLVPVZKLFKFDQEH W\SHGXVLQJWKHSRO\PHUDVHFKDLQUHDFWLRQ$P-+XP*HQHW :(%(5-/:21*&0XWDWLRQRIKXPDQVKRUWWDQGHPUHSHDWV+XP0RO*HQHW ± :(%(5-/,QIRUPDWLYHQHVVRIKXPDQG&G$QÂG*G7QSRO\PRUSKLVPV*HQRPLFV ± :(, &&&+,$1* )7/,1 .6/,1 /, 7KH 6SHFWUXP RI 0LFURVDWHOOLWH /RFL RQ &KURPRVRPHV LQ 7DLZDQ $ERULJLQDO SRSXODWLRQV D &RPSDUDWLYH 3RSXODWLRQ *HQHWLF6WXG\+XP*HQHW± :(,5%6,QIHUHQFHVDERXWOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXP%LRPHWULFV± :(,5%6&2&.(5+$0&&0L[HGVHOIDQGUDQGRPPDWLQJDWWZRORFL*HQHW5HV ± :(,5 %6&2&.(5+$0&&7HVWLQJK\SRWKHVLVDERXWOLQNDJHGLVHTXLOLEULXPZLWK PXOWLSOHDOOHOHV*HQHWLFV± :(,5 %6&2&.(5+$0 &&(VWLPDWLQJ)6WDWLVWLFVIRUWKH$QDO\VLVRI3RSXODWLRQ 6WUXFWXUH(YROXWLRQ± :(,5%6$//$5'5:.$+/(5$/$QDO\VLVRIFRPSOH[DOOR]\PHSRO\PRUSKLVP LQD%DUOH\3RSXODWLRQ*HQHWLFV± :(,66.07(5:,//,*(5-'+RZPDQ\GLVHDVHVGRHVLWWDNHWRPDSDJHQHZLWK 613V"1DW*HQHW± :(,66(167(,1(57/$1&+%85<-66WUDWHJ\IRUFRQWUROOLQJSUHIHUHQWLDODPSOLILFDWLRQ DQGDYRLGLQJIDOVHQHJDWLYHVLQ3&5W\SLQJ%LRWHFKQLTXHV± :+,7( -.$8(5%$&+ :'8<$2 039216$77(/ -3*86(//$ -)-2<1(5 $/ 0$&'21$/'0(+XQWLQJWLQLVUHTXLUHGIRUQHXURJHQHVLVDQGLVQRWLPSDLUHG E\WKH+XQWLQJWRQVGLVHDVH&$*H[SDQVLRQ1DW*HQHW± :,(+(77KHHIIHFWRIVHOHFWLYHVZHHSVRQWKHYDULDQFHRIWKHDOOHOHGLVWULEXWLRQRID OLQNHG PXOWLDOOHOH ORFXV +LWFKKLNLQJ RI PLFURVDWHOOLWHV 7KHRU 3RS %LRO ± :,(5'/0'20,16.$03(7(67'0LFURVDWHOOLWHLQVWDELOLW\LQ\HDVWGHSHQGHQFHRQ WKHOHQJWKRIWKHPLFURVDWHOOLWH*HQHWLFV± :,//,1*0&'(6&+(1(6636&277'$%<(563+6/$<7215/3,7766+$5,.$7 +52%(576(-2VWHRJHQHVLVLPSHUIHFWDW\SH,PROHFXODUKHWHURJHQHLW\IRU &2/$QXOODOOHOHVRIW\SH,FROODJHQ$P-+XP*HQHW±
%LEOLRJUDItD :,//,1*0&358&+12&-$7.,16210%<(563+2VWHRJHQHVLVLPSHUIHFWDW\SH ,LVFRPPRQO\GXHWRD&2/$QXOODOOHOHRIW\SH,FROODJHQ$P-+XP*HQHW ± :,//,1* 0&'(6&+(1(6 636/$<721 5/52%(576 (- 3UHPDWXUH FKDLQ WHUPLQDWLRQ LV D XQLI\LQJ PHFKDQLVP IRU &2/$ QXOO DOOHOHV LQ RVWHRJHQHVLV LPSHUIHFWDW\SH,FHOOVWUDLQV$P-+XP*HQHW± :,/621 -)*2/'67(,1 ' % &RQVLVWHQW ORQJUDQJH OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP JHQHUDWHG E\ DGPL[WXUH LQ D %DQWX6HPLWLF K\EULG SRSXODWLRQ $P - +XP *HQHW ± :,/621-):($/(0(60,7+$&*5$75,;))/(7&+(5%7+20$60*%5$'0$11 *2/'67(,1'%3RSXODWLRQJHQHWLFVWUXFWXUHRIYDULDEOHGUXJUHVSRQVH1DWXUH *HQHWLFV± :5,*+7$)&$527+(56$'3,5$67803RSXODWLRQFKRLFHLQPDSSLQJJHQHVIRU FRPSOH[GLVHDVHV1DW*HQHW± :8 <678/3 53(/))(5,&+ 326,1*$ -%8<6 &++2)675$ 50 ,PSURYHG PXWDWLRQ GHWHFWLRQ LQ *&ULFK '1$ IUDJPHQWV E\ FRPELQHG '**( DQG &'*( 1XFOHLF$FLGV5HVH :8<+$<(69026,1*$-08/'(5,0/220$10:%8<6&++2)675$50 ,PSURYHPHQWRIIUDJPHQWDQGSULPHUVHOHFWLRQIRUPXWDWLRQGHWHFWLRQE\GHQDWXULQJ JUDGLHQWJHOHOHFWURSKRUHVLV1XFOHLF$FLGV5HV± ;,21*0-,1/&RPSDULVRQRIWKHSRZHUDQGDFFXUDF\RIELDOOHOLFDQGPLFURVDWHOOLWH PDUNHUVLQSRSXODWLRQEDVHGJHQHPDSSLQJPHWKRGV$P-+XP*HQHW± ;8 +)8 <; (VWLPDWLQJ HIIHFWLYH SRSXODWLRQ VL]H RU PXWDWLRQ UDWH ZLWK PLFURVDWHOOLWHV*HQHWLFV± ;8;3(1*0)$1*=7KHGLUHFWLRQRIPLFURVDWHOOLWHPXWDWLRQVLVGHSHQGHQWXSRQ DOOHOHOHQJWK1DW*HQHW± <$'2//$+,)$56$1,0.()$/$636$;7<%$0&'(5027-3RO\PRUSKLFIRUPVRI KXPDQ$'3ULERV\OWUDQVIHUDVH 'LIIHUHQFHVLQ WKHLUFDWDO\WLF DFWLYLWLHVUHYHDOHGE\ ODEHOLQJRIPHPEUDQHDVVRFLDWHGVXEVWUDWHV(XU-%LRFKHP± <$68'$ 1(VWLPDWLRQRIWKHLQEUHHGLQJ FRHIILFLHQWIURPSKHQRW\SHIUHTXHQFLHVE\D PHWKRGRIPD[LPXQOLNHOLKRRGVFRULQJ%LRPHWULFV± <%$//( &098 7++2))0$1 $5 ,PSULQWLQJ DQG H[SUHVLyQ RI ,QVXOLQ/LNH *URZWK )DFWRU,, DQG + LQ QRUPDO EUHDVW WLVVXH DQG EUHDVW WXPRU - &OLQ (QG 0HWDE± <8 $=+$2 &)$1 <-$1* :081*$// $-'(/28.$6 32/6(1 $'2**(77 1$ *+(%5$1,2861%520$1.::(%(5-/&RPSDULVRQRIKXPDQJHQHWLFDQG VHTXHQFHEDVHGSK\VLFDOPDSV1DWXUH±
%LEOLRJUDItD =$3$7$ &$/9$5(= * *DPHWLF GLVHTXOLEULXP LQ SRSXODWLRQV RI 'URVRSKLOD VXEREVFXUD$UHYLHZRIH[SHULPHQWDOHYLGHQFH*HQpW,EpU± =$3$7$&$/9$5(=*7KHGHWHFWLRQRIJDPHWLFGLVHTXLOLEULXPEHWZHHQDOOR]\PHORFL LQQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI'URVRSKLOD(YROXWLRQ± =$3$7$&$/9$5(=*2QWKHGHWHFWLRQRIQRQUDQGRPDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQ'1$ SRO\PRUSKLPVLQQDWXUDOSRSXODWLRQVRI'URVRSKLOD0RO%LRO(YRO± =$3$7$ &È/9$5(= *2Q)LVKHU¶VH[DFWWHVWIRUGHWHFWLQJJDPHWLFGLVHTXLOLEULXP EHWZHHQ'1$SRO\PRUSKLVPV$QQ+XP*HQHW± =$3$7$ &È/9$5(= * 7HVWLQJ IRU KRPRJHQHLW\ RI JDPHWLF GLVHTXLOLEULXP DPRQJ SRSXODWLRQV(YROXWLRQ± =$3$7$ &9,6('2 **DPHWLF GLVHTXLOLEULXP DQGSK\VLFDO GLVWDQFH $P - +XP *HQHW± =$3$7$ & 7KH '¶ PHDVXUH RI RYHUDOO JDPHWLF GLVHTXLOLEULXP EHWZHHQ SDLUV RI PXOWLDOOHOLFORFL(YROXWLRQ± =$3$7$ &È/9$5(= *&$52//2 & $SSUR[LPDWH YDULDQFH RI WKH VWDQGDUGL]HG PHDVXUHRIJDPHWLFGLVHTXLOLEULXP'¶$P-+XP*HQHW± =$3$7$ &È/9$5(= *52'5Ë*8(=75(//(6 )0$6,'( ; $ ORQJWHUP VWXG\ RQ VHDVRQDO FKDQJHV RI JDPHWLF GLVHTXLOLEULXP EHWZHHQ DOOR]\PHV DQG LQYHUVLRQV LQ 'URVRSKLODVXEREVFXUD(YROXWLRQ± =$3$7$&&$52//2&&52'5,*8(=6D6DPSOLQJYDULDQFHDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH'¶ PHDVXUHRIRYHUDOOJDPHWLFGLVHTXLOLEULXPEHWZHHQPXOWLDOOHOLFORFL$QQ+XP*HQHW ± =$3$7$ &1Òf(= &9(/$6&2 7'LVWULEXWLRQRIQRQUDQGRPDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQ SDLUV RI SURWHLQ ORFL DORQJ WKH WKLUG FKURPRVRPH RI 'URVRSKLOD PHODQRJDVWHU *HQHWLFV± =$3$7$ &52'5Ë*8(= 69,6('2 *6$&5,67È1 ) E 6SHFWUXP RI QRQUDQGRP DVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQPLFURVDWHOOLWHORFLLQKXPDQFKURPRVRPHS*HQHWLFV ± =$3$7$&52'5Ë*8(=652'5Ë*8(=/+(50,'$-6$1'((6DPSOHVL]HUHTXLUHPHQWVRI WKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO+DS0DS3URMHFW(QYLDGR =$9$77$5,3'(,''$(:+$/(10/$03,6508/$5*,$$/2''20($9(6,0$67,2* 72'' -$&8&&$ ) 0DMRU IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP E\ DQDO\VLV RI GLIIHUHQW FKURPRVRPH UHJLRQV LQ GLVWLQFW SRSXODWLRQV GHPRJUDSK\ FKURPRVRPHUHFRPELQDWLRQIUHTXHQF\DQGVHOHFWLRQ+XP0RO*HQHW ± =(5%$ .(.(66/,1* $0'$9,*121 -6,1* & ) *HQHWLF VWUXFWXUH DQG WKH VHDUFKIRUJHQRW\SHSKHQRW\SHUHODWLRQVKLSV$QH[DPSOHIURPGLVHTXLOLEULXPLQWKH $SR%JHQHUHJLRQ*HQHWLFV±
%LEOLRJUDItD =+$1*.$.(<-0:$1*1;,21*0&+$.5$%257<5-,1/5DQGRPO\GLVWULEXWHG FURVVRYHUV PD\ JHQHUDWH EORFNOLNH SDWWHUQV RI OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP DQ DFW RI JHQHWLFGULIW+XP*HQHW± =+$1* :&2//,16 $*,%621 -7$33(5 :-+817 6'(/28.$6 3%(17/(< '5 025721 1( ,PSDFW RI SRSXODWLRQ VWUXFWXUH HIIHFWLYH ERWWOHQHFN WLPH DQG DOOHOH IUHTXHQF\ RQ OLQNDJH GLVHTXLOLEULXP PDSV 3URF 1DWO $FDG 6FL 86$ ± =+$2 +0&3((. 0663((' 73 6WDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RI FKURPDWLG LQWHUIHUHQFH *HQHWLFV± =+,927296.</$$QHZJHQHWLFGLVWDQFHZLWKDSSOLFDWLRQWRFRQVWUDLQHGYDULDWLRQDW PLFURVDWHOOLWHORFL0RO%LRO(YRO± =+,927296.< /$%(11(77 /%2:&2&. $0)(/'0$1 0: +XPDQ SRSXODWLRQ H[SDQVLRQDQGPLFURVDWHOOLWHYDULDWLRQ0RO%LRO(YRO± =21'(59$1.7&$5'21/57KHFRPSOH[LQWHUSOD\DPRQJIDFWRUVWKDWLQIOXHQFH DOOHOLFDVVRFLDWLRQ1DW5HY*HQHW±