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Multi-decadal hydrologic change and variability in the Amazon River basin: understanding terrestrial water storage variations and drought characteristics

Chaudhari, Suyog; Pokhrel, Yadu; Moran, Emilio; Míguez Macho, Gonzalo

Abstract

We investigate the interannual and interdecadal hydrological changes in the Amazon River basin and its sub-basins during the 1980–2015 period using GRACE satellite data and a physically based, 2 km grid continental-scale hydrological model (LEAF-Hydro-Flood) that includes a prognostic groundwater scheme and accounts for the effects of land use–land cover (LULC) change. The analyses focus on the dominant mechanisms that modulate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations and droughts. We find that (1) the model simulates the basin-averaged TWS variations remarkably well; however, disagreements are observed in spatial patterns of temporal trends, especially for the post-2008 period. (2) The 2010s is the driest period since 1980, characterized by a major shift in the decadal mean compared to the 2000s caused by increased drought frequency. (3) Long-term trends in TWS suggest that the Amazon overall is getting wetter (1.13 mm yr−1), but its southern and southeastern sub-basins are undergoing significant negative TWS changes, caused primarily by intensified LULC changes. (4) Increasing divergence between dry-season total water deficit and TWS release suggests a strengthening dry season, especially in the southern and southeastern sub-basins. (5) The sub-surface storage regulates the propagation of meteorological droughts into hydrological droughts by strongly modulating TWS release with respect to its storage preceding the drought condition. Our simulations provide crucial insight into the importance of sub-surface storage in alleviating surface water deficit across Amazon and open pathways for improving prediction and mitigation of extreme droughts under changing climate and increasing hydrologic alterations due to human activities (e.g., LULC change).

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Supplement of Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2862, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2841-2019-supplement © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Supplement of Multi-decadal hydrologic change and variability in the Amazon River basin: understanding terrestrial water storage variations and drought characteristics Suyog Chaudhari et al. Correspondence to: Yadu Pokhrel ([email protected]) The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC BY 4.0 License. 1 LHF Model and Setup Figure S1 – Stores and fluxes included in LEAF-Hydro-Flood (LHF) model along with its overall structure and inputs. This flowchart is modified after Miguez-Macho and Fan, (2012). 2 Validation of Simulated streamflow with Observations Figure S2 show the locations of the streamflow gauge stations for which the data was acquired from Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) in Brazil (http:// hidroweb.ana.gov.br). Selection of stations are made with respect to the length of the data available, with minimum data gaps, and their location in the basin. Figure S3 compares the simulated streamflow with observed streamflow acquired from ANA at 12 main stations in the Amazon 5 River basin (locations are indicated in Figure S2). Seasonal dynamics for both simulated and observed streamflow for each streamflow station are also shown in the right panel of each subplot. Trend and the comparison statistics are indicated in each subplot. Note that the y-axis values are expressed exponentially. Figure S4 compares the observed and simulated streamflow with climatology removed at 12 main streamflow stations. Shaded areas indicate the seasonal minimums and maximums for both observed and simulated streamflow values. The model 10 successfully captures the transitions from the climatological mean compared to observed transitions. Maximum and minimum monthly variations are also well apprehended by the model. Although the model operates adeptly in varying geographical regions, the uncertainties carried from the forcing input are evident from the comparison with observed values. Given that none of the model parameters are calibrated or altered, it can be concluded that the interannual and climatological biases found in the model results are directly carried over from the forcing input (see section 3.2). 15 3 Figure S2 – Spatial distribution of simulated streamflow from LHF at the original ~2 km model grids. Markers indicate the locations of the stream gauge stations we use to validate the simulated streamflow from LHF. Highlighted and indexed markers are the gauge stations for which a timeseries comparisons are shown in Supplementary Figure S2. Red line shows the extend of Amazon River basin including the Tocantins region. 5 4 Figure S3 – Comparison of observed streamflow (black) obtained from ANA Brazil and simulated streamflow (red) from LHF at 12 main gauge stations. Seasonal cycle for each station is also shown in the right panel of each subplot. The locations of the streamflow gauge stations are indicated in Figure S1. 5 5 Figure S4 – Comparison of observed streamflow (black) and simulated streamflow (red) with climatology removed at 12 main gauge stations along with the mean seasonal cycle. The shaded area represents the seasonal minimum and maximum observed (black) and simulated (red) streamflow. 5 6 Trends in Forcing Precipitation and Temperature Figure S5 displays temporal trends in the input precipitation and temperature from WFDEI dataset, we use to drive the LHF model. Grids with significant trend at 99% level are highlighted with markers. Figure S5 – Temporal trend in precipitation and temperature obtained from WFDEI forcing dataset for the simulation period (i.e. 5 1980-2015). Markers indicate significant trends at 99% level. 7 Comparison of Simulated TWS anomalies with GRACE Figure S6 presents temporal trends in input precipitation form WFDEI during the GRACE period, i.e. 2002-2015. The trends are calculated for anomalies at 0.5ox 0.5o resolution. The uncertainty with decreasing precipitation trend evident over the Andes is carried over to the model results causing slight discrepancies between simulated TWS and GRACE anomalies. All the trends are expressed in cm/year. 5 Figure S7 presents the comparison of GRACE and simulated TWS anomalies with climatology removed for 2002-2015 period along with their seasonal minimums and maximums. This result contributes a crucial insight in the ongoing heated discussion regarding the mismatch between GRACE and model TWS trends (Scanlon et al., 2018; Sun et al., 2019). Note only the mean of GRACE mascon products from JPL and GFZ centres is used in this comparison. 10 Figure S6 – Temporal trend in precipitation obtained from WFDEI forcing dataset for the model-GRACE overlap period (i.e. 2002- 2015). Note that the entire model-GRACE overlap period was split in two timeframes for further analysis (see Section 4.3). 8 Figure S7 – Comparison of GRACE and simulated TWS anomalies with climatology removed for Amazon and its sub-basins. Shaded areas in the right panel of each subplot indicate the seasonal mean of GRACE (red) and TWS from LHF (black). Temporal trends in GRACE and simulated TWS anomalies are also indicated in each subplot. 5