Brief Overview on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain

A chi es o Clinical Mic obiology ISSN 1989-8436 2021 Vol. 12 No. 4:159 1 iMedPub Jou nals h p://www. i m e dpub. c om Sho Communica ion © Copy igh iMedPub | This a icle is a ailable om: h ps://www.acmic ob.com/ Vicen e Ma inez* Depa men o de Ma ema` iques, Uni e si a Jaume I, Ins i u de Ma ema` iques i Aplicacions de Cas ello, Cas ello E-12071, Spain Co esponding au ho : Ma inez V  [email p o ec ed] Depa men o de Ma ema` iques, Uni e si a Jaume I, Ins i u de Ma ema` iques i Aplicacions de Cas ello, Cas ello E-12071, Spain. Ci a ion: Ma inez V (2021) B ie O e iew on he COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain. A ch Clin Mic obio Vol.12 No.4: 159 B ie O e iew on he COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain Recei ed: June 22, 2021; Accep ed: July 06, 2021; Published: July 13, 2021 Abs ac We analyze he e olu ion o he COVID-19 pandemic in Spain. Se e al nume ical me hods and models a e s udied o unde s and how he e olu ion o his pandemic is e e enced. We also jus i y he adjus men s ha we ha e made in o de o in e p e he public da a supplied by he Spanish Go e nmen . Finally, we p esen some o he lessons lea ned so ha we way ca y ou ea ly ac ions when we a e imme sed in simila pandemics. Keywo ds: Pandemic; Nume ical simula ion; SIRD model; Ma hema ical modeling Desc ip ion Since he eme gence o he co ona i us (SARS-CoV-2) in Decembe 2019 in China and i s sp ead wo ldwide, humani y has su e ed one o he wo s known pandemics o da e. The disease caused by his i us was called COVID-19 by he Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion (WHO), and as o May 2021, i has caused he in ec ion o 150 million people and he dea h o app oxima ely 5 million o hese people. In Spain, he e ha e been 3,678,390 con i med cases and 79,953 dea hs [1]. In his wo k, we analyze he de elopmen o he COVID-19 pandemic in Spain by adjus ing se e al exis ing ma hema ical models o desc ibe he e olu ion o in ec ions. Fo he mos pa , we use he analysis ca ied ou in he pape "A Modi ied SIRD Model o S udy he E olu ion o he COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain" [2], which desc ibes he e olu ion o his pandemic du ing he i s wa e su e ed in Spain du ing he mon hs o Ma ch and Ap il 2020. We conside ha a wa e o he pandemic occu s when he numbe o in ec ions eaches a maximum in a ini e pe iod o ime, ollowed by and dec ease. Models o In ec ious Disease Dynamics The SIRD model The SIRD model was p oposed in 1927 [3] by Ke mack and McKend ick; since hen, i has been widely used [4-9]. This model conside s ou ypes o people: (S) Suscep ible: he people who could become in ec ed. (I) In ec ed: he people who a e in ec ed a ha momen . (R) Reco e ed: he people who ha e had he disease and a e now heal hy. (D) Deceased: he people who ha e died o he disease. I is go e ned by he ollowing sys em o di e en ial equa ions gi en by S′( )=- β S( )I( ) I′( ) =β S( )I( )- αI( )- γ I ( ) R ′ ( ) =α I ( ) D ′ ( )=γ I( ) Whe e α is he eco e y a e, β is he in ec ed a e and γ is he dea h a e, all o hem pe uni o ime. I shows ypical beha io , as indica ed in Figu e 1. Typical beha iou o an epidemic’s e olu ion o e imeFigu e 1: * . Depa men o de Ma emà iques, Uni e si a Jaume I, Ins i u de Ma emà iques i Aplicacions de Cas elló, Cas elló E-12071, Spain Depa men o de Ma emà iques, Uni e si a Jaume I, Ins i u de Ma emà iques i Aplicacions de Cas elló, Cas elló E-12071, Spain. 2021 A chi es o Clinical Mic obiology ISSN 1989-8436 Vol. 12 No. 4:159 2This a icle is a ailable in: h ps://www.acmic ob.com/ The pape "A Modi ied SIRD Model o S udy he E olu ion o he COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain [2], desc ibed he adjus men o his model o he i s wa e o he COVID-19 pandemic in Spain. This wo k led o he ollowing conclusions: • The SIRD model, like o he s, is s ongly dependen on he ini ial da a used o adjus he pa ame e s. I also depends on he people exposed o he i us, i.e. he a iable S, suscep ible people. Depending on he s ic ness o he isola ion measu es, his a iable may be signi ican ly highe o lowe a each s age o he pandemic. • The p ecision o he es ima ed pa ame e s is de e mined by heo e ical easoning. The pape shows he e olu ion o he ep oduc ion numbe du ing he la ency pe iod, which is e y help ul o unde s anding he e olu ion o he epidemic. • The model allows us o make sho - e m p edic ions, which a e use ul o making decisions ha educe ha m ul e ec s, o example, o educe he numbe o dea hs using qua an ine [10]. Since he da a is change, i we adjus he pa ame e s acco ding o he es ic ions imposed in each case, a mo e app op ia e global beha io can be obse ed. • The pape shows he i o a piecewise es ima e a each s age, conside ing changes in condi ions du ing he e olu ion o he epidemic. The model allows us o adjus he pa ame e s in eal ime when he disease is la en . Gi en he simplici y wi h which i s pa ame e s can be calcula ed, he model can be easily adap ed o simila in ec ions. In e es ed eade s can ind a g ea deal o de ail on hese indings in he pape "A Modi ied SIRD Model o S udy he E olu ion o he COVID-19 Pandemic in Spain” [2]. O he models The e is a wide a ie y o models o s udy o he COVID-19 pandemic in he scien i ic li e a u e: using Bayesian and s ochas ic echniques [11-13], including mobili y, con inemen and qua an ine, ac ional models, and logis ic models, among o he s [14-18]. In pa icula , show simila beha io s in he es ima es [11-12]. Upda e o he Pandemic Da a since May 2020 A e he i s wa e, which was he mos unexpec ed, ou mo e wa es a i ed. The da a a e shown in Figu es 2 and 3, in which i can be seen ha he maximum numbe o dea hs occu ed se e al days a e he maximum numbe o in ec ions. The su p ising hing is ha du ing he i s wa e, mo e dea hs occu ed wi h ewe in ec ions. This could be explained by he low numbe o es s ca ied ou du ing he i s wa e, which indica es ha he numbe o in ec ions epo ed was much lowe han he ac ual numbe ha exis ed du ing hose da es. Due o he wo sening o he si ua ion du ing he second wa e, on Oc obe 25, 2020 he Spanish Go e nmen dec eed ano he s a e o ala m [19] on Oc obe 25, 2020, imposing es ic i e mobili y measu es. On Sunday, May 9, 2021, his s a e o ala m ended, p ima ily due o he success ul implemen a ion o accina ion p og am. The success o accines in comba ing he COVID-19 pandemic wo ldwide dese es a pa icula men ion. Since Decembe 2020 and a e a yea o global esea ch, he e a e al eady ou accines ha ha e been au ho ized by he Eu opean Medicines Agency (EMA) o inocula ion in Eu ope: P ize -BioNTech, Mode na, As aZeneca and Janssen. On Sunday, Decembe 27, 2020, he i s dose o he P ize accine was adminis e ed in Spain. F om hen un il May 12, 2021, he numbe o doses o accines adminis e ed was eached 18,032,517, and 9,221,285 people had ecei ed he ull dose. These amoun s a e inc easing a a good pace and i is expec ed o each 70% o he popula ion o Spain will ha e been accina ed by he end o he summe o 2021. I is wo h men ioning ha in June 2021 a new accina ion eco d was b oken in Spain: 624,261 doses in 24 hou s. Con i med daily cases o COVID-19 in Spain (May 30, 2021). Sou ce: Spanish Go e nmen on 31 May 2021. Figu e 2: Numbe o daily dea hs om COVID-19 in Spain (May 30, 2021). Sou ce: Spanish Go e nmen on 31 May 2021. Figu e 3: 3 © Unde License o C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 3.0 License A chi es o Clinical Mic obiology ISSN 1989-8436 Vol. 12 No. 4: 159 2021 As a inal e lec ion, we will compa e he COVID-19 pandemic wi h he Spanish lu pandemic ha ook place be ween 1918 and 1920 [20-22]. This e ible pandemic le mo e han 40 million ic ims wo ldwide, and Spain was one o he mos se e ely a ec ed coun ies, wi h 8 million people in ec ed and 300,000 dead. In oday’s socie y, wi h he in e connec ions ha exis in a globalized wo ld, he pandemic could ha e caused mo e damage, bu heal h and echnological esou ces a e a supe io hose o he ea ly wen ie h cen u y. Howe e , he only exis ing measu es ha ha e been e ec i e hen and now a e isola ion measu es (qua an ine). This is he only measu e ha can educe he numbe o people suscep ible o in ec ion wi h he disease ( a iable S o he SIRD model) [15,23-25] and he e o e s op i s expansion and he consequen dea hs [10]. 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