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Geography, climate and shifts in host plants distribution explain the genomic variation in the cactus moth

Poveda-Martínez, Daniel,Noguerales, Víctor,Hight, Stephen D.,Logarzo, Guillermo,Emerson, Brent C.,Varone, Laura,Hasson, Esteban

Abstract

Funding was obtained from FONCyT through grant PICT1447/2016 and USDA APHIS-PPQ, Farm Bill 10201. We are grateful to the Associate Editor and two reviewers for suggestions that helped to improve previous versions of this paper. We would like to thank Mariel Guala and Malena Fuentes Corona for fieldwork support. We are also grateful to the Centro de Cómputo de Alto Rendimiento (CeCAR) and Biocódices S.A. for granting use of computational resources. DP-M is the recipient of a postdoctoral scholarship awarded by CONICET. VN was supported by a Juan de la Cierva-Formación postdoctoral fellowship (grant FJC2018-035611-I) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. LV and EH are members of Carrera del Investigador CONICET.

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Geog aphy, clima e and shi s in hos plan s dis ibu ion explain he genomic a ia ion in he cac us mo h Daniel Po eda-Ma ı ´nez 1,2 *,Vı ´c o Nogue ales 3 , S ephen D. High 4 , Guille mo Loga zo 1 , B en C. Eme son 3 , Lau a Va one 1 † and Es eban Hasson 2 † 1 Fundacio ´n pa a el Es udio de Especies In asi as (FuEDEI), Hu lingham, A gen ina, 2 Ins i u o de Ecologı ´a Gene ´ ica y E olucio ´n de Buenos Ai es (IEGEBA-CONICET), Facul ad de Ciencias Exac as y Na u ales, Uni e sidad de Buenos Ai es, Buenos Ai es, A gen ina, 3 Island Ecology and E olu ion Resea ch G oup, Ins i u o de P oduc os Na u ales y Ag obiologı ´a (IPNA-CSIC), San C is o ´bal de La Laguna, Cana y Islands, Spain, 4 The U.S. Depa men o Ag icul u e –Ag icul u al Resea ch Se ice (USDA-ARS), Insec Beha io and Biocon ol Resea ch Uni (IBBRU), Tallahassee, FL, Uni ed S a es Landscape he e ogenei y and he hos plan use a e ac o s sugges ed o play de e minan oles in shaping he e olu iona y his o y o he bi o ous insec s. Howe e , he ole o he econfigu a ion o hos plan s dis ibu ions linked o Qua e na y clima e oscilla ions as d i e s o con empo a y popula ion gene ic s uc u e is s ill poo ly unde s ood. He e, we o mally examine he ela i e con ibu ion o such ac o s on in aspecific di e sifica ion using he Sou h Ame ican cac us mo h, Cac oblas is cac o um, an he bi o e insec specialized in he use o cac i as hos plan s. We assessed genomic a ia ion using genome- wide SNPs and mi ochond ial da a in popula ions sampled ac oss a b oad geog aphical g adien whe e mo hs eed on di e en cac us species. We in eg a ed demog aphic simula ions and ecological niche modeling in o a landscape genomics amewo k, o es al e na i e hypo heses o pas and cu en popula ion connec i i y o bo h C. cac o um and i s hos plan s. Regions exhibi ing highe genomic di e si y we e e alua ed o cong uence wi h a eas whe e sui able clima ic condi ions emained s able h ough ime. Ou esul s e ealed ha pas spa ial configu a ion o sui able habi a condi ions and shi s o hos plan s dis ibu ions a e he ac o s ha be e explain he in aspecific di e sifica ion. Genomic da a also suppo ed he hypo hesis ha a eas o long- e m habi a s abili y se ed as e ugia o C. cac o um, enabling he main enance o high le els o gene ic di e si y o e ime. O e all, ou s udy highligh s he impo ance o in eg a ing in e -specific in e ac ions and hei spa io- empo al dynamics o be e unde s and he ela i e impo ance o abio ic and bio ic ac o s d i ing he di e sifica ion p ocesses in he bi o ous insec s wi h b oad geog aphical and es ic ed hos anges. KEYWORDS cac us pes , cac oblas is cac o um, ddRAD, landscape genomics, paleoclima e, opun ia F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g01 OPEN ACCESS EDITED BY Zi ong Li, Commonweal h Scien ific and Indus ial Resea ch O ganisa ion (CSIRO), Aus alia REVIEWED BY Cui Wang, Uni e si y o Helsinki, Finland Jo dan Golubo , Uni e sidad Au o ´noma Me opoli ana, Mexico *CORRESPONDENCE Daniel Po eda-Ma ı ´nez [email p o ec ed] † These au ho s sha e las au ho ship RECEIVED 18 July 2023 ACCEPTED 29 Augus 2023 PUBLISHED 19 Sep embe 2023 CITATION Po eda-Ma ı ´nez D, Nogue ales V, High SD, Loga zo G, Eme son BC, Va one L and Hasson E (2023) Geog aphy, clima e and shi s in hos plan s dis ibu ion explain he genomic a ia ion in he cac us mo h. F on . Ecol. E ol. 11:1260857. doi: 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 COPYRIGHT ©2023Po eda-Ma ı ´nez, Nogue ales, High , Loga zo, Eme son, Va one and Hasson. This is an open-access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (CC BY). The use, dis ibu ion o ep oduc ion in o he o ums is pe mi ed, p o ided he o iginal au ho (s) and he copy igh owne (s) a e c edi ed and ha he o iginal publica ion in his jou nal is ci ed, in acco dance wi h accep ed academic p ac ice. No use, dis ibu ion o ep oduc ion is pe mi ed which does no comply wi h hese e ms. TYPE O iginal Resea ch PUBLISHED 19 Sep embe 2023 DOI 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 1 In oduc ion The spa ial dis ibu ion o genomic a ia ion in na u al popula ions is influenced by a a ie y o p ocesses, including he dispe sal abili y o indi iduals, gene flow, bio ic in e ac ions, and landscape ea u es. Un eiling he ela i e oles o hese p ocesses is necessa y o unde s and how o ganisms in e ac wi h he en i onmen and how he la e shapes hei genomic makeup. In his ma e , he bi o ous insec s dis ibu ed along en i onmen al g adien s eeding on a se o hos plan s o e he oppo uni y o disen angling he ecological and geog aphical p ocesses d i ing popula ion di e en ia ion and gene flow dynamics in he e ogeneous landscapes (Bo e e al., 2012;Laukkanen e al., 2014). Among he ecological ac o s, he use o al e na i e hos plan s is hough o shape pa e ns o gene flow among popula ions in he bi o ous insec s (Funk e al., 2006;Fo bes e al., 2017). Mo eo e , changes in hos plan use oge he wi h adap a ion o di e en en i onmen al condi ions can lead o ecological specializa ion and di e sifica ion (isola ion by en i onmen , IBE; Wang and B adbu d, 2014). Geog aphy (isola ion by dis ance, IBD; Sla kin, 1993) and he spa ial dis ibu ion o sui able habi a s (isola ion by esis ance, IBR; McRae, 2006;McRae and Beie , 2007) may also be de e minan s o popula ion gene ic di e en ia ion ac oss he landscape (Pe e man e al., 2014;Vidal e al., 2019). Insec s wi h na ow die b ead hs and en i onmen al equi emen s a e expec ed o exhibi ma ked gene ic s uc u e as a consequence o gene flow dis up ion be ween popula ions exploi ing al e na i e hos s (Vidal and Mu phy, 2018) and/o inhabi ing a agmen ed landscape o sui able habi a s (O ego e al., 2021). Howe e , in widely dis ibu ed insec s eeding on a na ow a ay o hos plan s ac oss he landscape, con empo a y pa e ns o genomic a ia ion can also be influenced by a ange o ac o s, including dispe sal abili y, pa e ns o hos plan use and/o componen s o landscape he e ogenei y. Mo eo e , less s udied spa io-ecological ac o s, such as dis ibu ional shi s o hos plan s d i en by clima e oscilla ions h oughou he Qua e na y pe iod, may ha e also p omo ed cycles o geog aphical isola ion and seconda y con ac , shaping con empo a y pa e ns o gene ic a ia ion in he bi o ous insec s (Nogue ales e al., 2018). Ye , he ela i e con ibu ion o hese ecological ac o s and spa io- empo al landscape dynamics in d i ing popula ions di e en ia ion in axa wi h b oad clima ic niches and na ow eeding equi emen s a e s ill open ques ions in e olu iona y biology. To unde s and he ole o such spa ial-ecological p ocesses in species di e sifica ion and shaping gene flow in he e ogeneous landscapes, an in eg a i e app oach is necessa y, aking in o accoun his o ical and con empo a y en i onmen al da a, combined wi h a sui able insec model wi h na ow ophic equi emen s and dis ibu ed along en i onmen al g adien s. He e, we in es iga e pa e ns o genomic a ia ion in he cac us mo h, Cac oblas is cac o um (Be g) (Lepidop e a: Py alidae), a sou he n Sou h Ame ican he bi o e insec , ha inhabi s he e ogeneous landscapes, aces a a ie y o clima e condi ions, and eeds on se e al species o he genus Opun ia (Cac aceae, Opun ioideae). This mo h can be ound ac oss wide la i udinal and longi udinal g adien s, om he a id and semi-a id lands o no hwes e n and no heas e n Chaco, o he g asslands o he Pampa, and no h o he Pa agonian s eppe (McFadyen, 1985; Mo one, 2014;Va one e al., 2014). Along such b oad dis ibu ion, C. cac o um eeds on na i e species, such as O. anacan ha Speg., O. bonae ensis Speg., O. ela a Link & O o ex Salm-Dyck, O. megapo amica A echa ., O. penicillige a Speg., O. quimilo K. Schum., and O. iopla ense Fon ., and also he cul i a ed O. ficus-indica (L.) Mille , an exo ic species in he egion (Va one e al., 2012;Va one e al., 2014). Soon a e i s in oduc ion he p ickly pea O. ficus-indica was quickly adop ed as a c op in sou he n Sou h Ame ica (E in, 2012). The a ailabili y o his new hos plan ep esen s a ela i ely ecen expansion o hos use o C. cac o um. Cu en ly his mo h is a se ious h ea o he egional indus y o p ickly pea ui p oduc ion (Ochoa e al., 2007). The in oduc ion o he new hos led o he sugges ion ha he sp ead o O. ficus-indica p omo ed he dispe sion and geog aphical ange expansion o C. cac o um (Va one e al., 2014). P e ious s udies e ealed ha popula ions o C. cac o um a e gene ically di e en ia ed in a leas ou haplog oups co ela ed wi h geog aphy and a iable le els o gene ic di e si y among na i e and non-na i e mo h popula ions (Ma sico e al., 2011), and ha pa e ns o colo a ion o ma u e la ae and hos plan use a y ac oss egions (B ooks e al., 2012). Howe e , only limi ed conclusions can be d awn om hese s udies since (i) only a single mi ochond ial gene ic ma ke was used; (ii) sampling did no co e he en i e species ange; and (iii) he ela i e abundance o hos species was no conside ed (McFadyen, 1985;Ma sico e al., 2011;B ooks e al., 2012). Mo e ecen ly, an ex ensi e su ey e alua ing hos plan p e e ences ac oss he b oad ange o C. cac o um concluded ha pa e ns o hos use eflec a ia ion in hos a ailabili y a he han emale p e e ence (Va one e al., 2014). In his s udy, we use high- h oughpu nuclea sequence da a and Sange sequence da a o mi ochond ial DNA o in es iga e he p ocesses ha shaped pa e ns o di e sifica ion in he cac us mo h, C. cac o um. Ou sampling s a egy ex ended o e a b oad geog aphic ange aking ca e o including he di e si y o na i e and non-na i e hos s. We combine in e ences om phylogenomics and demog aphic modeling o unco e he empo and mode o di e sifica ion, pa e ns o gene flow and popula ion gene ic s uc u e. By in eg a ing ecological niche modeling in o a landscape genomic amewo k, we es a comp ehensi e sui e o compe ing scena ios o popula ion isola ion. Specifically we e alua e he hypo heses ha con empo a y spa ial pa e ns o popula ion gene ic di e en ia ion in C. cac o um a e p edominan ly a consequence o he spa ial econfigu a ion o sui able a eas and shi s in he dis ibu ion o hos plan s caused by Qua e na y clima ic oscilla ions whils he cu en pa e n o hos plan use and opoclima ic ac o s a e less influen ial in i s di e sifica ion. Since we es ima ed his o ical and con empo a y habi a sui abili y, and long- e m sui able en i onmen s end o suppo la ge e ec i e popula ion sizes (Ca na al e al., 2009; Soley-Gua dia e al., 2019), we also add ess whe he egions whe e sui able habi a condi ions emained s able since he las glacial maximum (LGM, ca. 21 ka) o he p esen exhibi g ea e gene ic di e si y han popula ions h i ing in less s able a eas. Finally, we e alua ed whe he he expansion o O. ficus-indica acili a ed Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g02 con empo a y gene flow among geog aphically dis an popula ions. In his ma e , ou expec a ion is o find oo p in s o gene ic admix u e among dis an egions, especially among a eas highly impac ed by p ickly pea ag oindus y. 2 Me hods 2.1 Popula ion sampling and DNA ex ac ion Be ween 2018 and 2019, we collec ed 140 indi iduals o C. cac o um om 28 sampling si es spanning a b oad ange o i s na i e dis ibu ion in sou he n Sou h Ame ica (Figu e 1;Table S1). Indi iduals we e collec ed di ec ly om hos plan s, including se en na i e axa, O. anacan ha, O. bonae ensis, O. ela a, O. megapo amica, O. penicillige a, O. iopla ense, and O. quimilo, and he exo ic O. ficus-indica. To a oid he inclusion o siblings, only a single indi idual pe sampled plan and eggs ick was used o gene ic analysis. Be o e DNA ex ac ion, indi idual la ae we e dissec ed o emo e any ood esidue, and ~30 mg o clean issue was used o DNA ex ac ion wi h Qiagen DNeasy Blood & Tissue Ki ollowing manu ac u e ’s ins uc ions (Qiagen, Inc.). 2.2 Genomic lib a ies p epa a ion, fil e ing and assembling Indi iduals we e p ocessed in o wo genomic lib a ies ollowing he double diges es ic ion-si e Associa ed DNA (ddRAD) p ocedu e desc ibed in Pe e son e al. (2012). Genomic DNA was agmen ed using NspI and MboI es ic ion enzymes, and hen pu ified and liga ed o ba coded adap e s. Lib a ies we e sequenced in pai ed-end 125 bp mode on a HiSeq2500 Illumina ins umen . Demul iplexed aw eads we e checked, compiled and summa ized on Mul iQC 1.10.1 (Ewels e al., 2016). Reads we e assembled wi h IPYRAD .0.9.59 (Ea on and O e cas , 2020). A e e ence based assembly me hod was implemen ed o mapping he fil e ed eads agains he C. cac o um e e ence genome. DNA ex ac ed om an adul male (clean DNA, ee o ood con aminan s can be ob ained om males, as hey do no eed) was used o lib a y p epa a ion and sequenced in an Illumina No aSeq 6000 pla o m. The de no o assembly was accomplished wi h CLC Genomics Wo kbench 7.1 (see Po eda-Ma ınez e al., 2022 o de ails). Thus, he e e ence genome se ed also as a fil e o exogenous eads de i ed om la al ood. In subsequen IPYRAD assembly s eps, we allowed 20% o SNPs pe RAD locus, and sha ed he e ozygous si es occu ing ac oss a maximum o 25% o samples. A minimum o 90% was se o he minimum numbe o samples sco ed pe locus. We used c ools 1.15 (Danecek e al., 2011) o emo eSNPswi h minimum allele equency lowe han 3%, missing da a pe si e ac oss indi iduals exceeding 25%, and o keep SNPs wi h ead dep hs be ween 6× and 100×. Indi iduals wi h mo e han 20% missing da a we e excluded om u he analyses. To p une SNPs in linkage disequilib ium, PLINK 1.9 (Pu cell e al., 2007) was used wi h a window size o 50 bp, window shi o 5 and VIF h eshold o 2. SNPs unde selec ion we e iden ified using Bayescan .2.1 (Foll and Gaggio i, 2008) and excluded om he da ase . A agmen o he mi ochond ial gene encoding he Cy och ome oxidase subuni I AB C FIGURE 1 Geog aphic loca ion and hos species o he Cac oblas is cac o um popula ions sampled in his s udy (A). Regions ep esen biogeog aphic p o inces acco ding o Mo one e al. (2014). Panels (B, C) ep esen he maps o habi a sui abili y o C. cac o um du ing he p esen (B) and du ing he Las Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21ky) (C) as in e ed by he mos -suppo ed ENM model in MAXENT. Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g03 (COI) (m DNA) was amplified using p ime s C1-J-2183 and Pa II. Amplifica ions, PCR-p oduc pu ifica ion and sequencing we e pe o med as de ailed in Po eda-Ma ınez e al. (2022). 2.3 Assessing genomic popula ion s uc u e Popula ion gene ic s uc u e was in e ed using genome-wide SNP da a (nDNA he ea e ) and he spa se non-nega i e ma ix ac o iza ion app oach (sNMF) (F icho e al., 2014), as implemen ed in R using he LEA package (F icho and F ancois, 2015). The numbe o gene ic clus e s ha bes desc ibed ou da a was assessed wi h 100 epe i ions o each possible K alue ( om K = 1 o K = 10) and using he c oss-en opy c i e ion. In addi ion o sNMF, gene ic s uc u e was app oxima ed by using he majo axes o genomic a ia ion ob ained om a P incipal Componen Analysis (PCA), as implemen ed in he hie s a (Goude , 2005)R package. We used m DNA da a o cons uc a haplo ype ne wo k using he Median Joining algo i hm (Bandel e al., 1999)as implemen ed in PopA .1.7.1 (Leigh and B yan , 2015). 2.4 Phylogene ic analyses Phylogene ic ela ionships we e econs uc ed among he main gene ic g oups as in e ed in sNMF using nDNA da a and he coalescen -based me hod implemen ed in SNAPP (B yan e al., 2012). Due o compu a ional bu den, SNAPP analyses we e un including only fi e indi iduals pe gene ic clus e , selec ing hose wi h an ances y coe ficien highe han 0.85, acco ding o sNMF, and indi iduals ha had he lowes p opo ion o missing da a. One SNP pe locus was andomly selec ed esul ing in a new ma ix o 2,086 SNPs sha ed ac oss ips. This allows o ensu e independen biallelic ma ke s as well as ai ly spaced SNPs as equi ed in SNAPP (B yan e al., 2012). The de aul model pa ame e s we e used in SNAPP o U and V equal o one, and he analysis was un o 5,000,000 MCMC gene a ions, sampling e e y 1000 gene a ions in Beas .2.5.2 (Bouckae e al., 2014). The comple e se o ees was isualized in Densi ee .2.2.5 (Bouckae , 2010), emo ing he fi s 10% o he ees as bu n-in. A maximum c edibili y ee was gene a ed using T eeAnno a o .1.7.5 (D ummond e al., 2012). 2.5 Demog aphic his o y A coalescen -based simula ion app oach was implemen ed in Fas simcoal2 (Exco fie e al., 2013) based on he si e equency spec um (SFS) o nDNA da a o u he in es iga e he demog aphic his o y o he h ee main lineages iden ified in clus e ing analysis and species ee in e ence (Cen e , Eas and Sou h, see esul s sec ion). Ini ially, o u he e alua e he consis ency o phylogene ic ela ionships among C. cac o um popula ions in e ed in SNAPP, models ep esen ing he h ee possible opologies (A, B and C) we e conside ed in each one o he subsequen models o gene flow (Figu e S1). Fo each opology, di e gence imes, con empo a y and ancien e ec i e popula ion sizes we e es ima ed, as well as al e na i e scena ios o gene flow. Models 1–3 conside ed no gene flow among lineages; models 4–6 con empla ed scena ios o symme ic gene flow among lineages, while models 7–9 conside ed scena ios o asymme ic gene flow among lineages. Fo hese analyses, 20 indi iduals we e selec ed wi h he highes ances y coe ficien (>0.85) acco ding o sNMF (e.g., O ego e al., 2021). The olded join SFS was calcula ed conside ing a single SNP pe locus using he Py hon sc ip w i en by Isaac O e cas and a ailable a Gi Hub (h ps://gi hub.com/ isaaco e cas /easySFS). To emo e missing da a and minimize e o s wi h allele equency es ima es, each gene ic clus e was downsampled o 16 indi iduals yielding a o al o 2,565 a iable si es. Assuming ha in a iable si es we e no conside ed in he SFS calcula ion, we used he “ emo eZe oSFS”op ion in Fas simcoal2 and fixed he e ec i e popula ion size o one o he demes (Sou h lineage, NE SOUTH = 824,626) o enable he es ima ion o o he pa ame e s wi h Fas simcoal2. NE SOUTH was calcula ed acco ding o he equa ion NE = p/4m(Lynch and Cone y, 2003). Nucleo ide di e si y (p= 0.004) was es ima ed using a ian and in a ian si es wi h DNAsp 6 (Rozas e al., 2017). The mu a ion a e (m) was conside ed o be 2.9 × 10 −9 subs i u ions pe si e pe gene a ion, as p e iously es ima ed o he bu e flyHeliconius melpomene (Keigh ley e al., 2015) (Lepidop e a: Nymphalidae). Each model was un wi h 50 eplica es, conside ing 100,000–250,000 simula ions o he calcula ion o he composi e likelihood, 10–40 expec a ion–condi ional maximiza ion (ECM) cycles, and a s opping c i e ion o 0.001. Once maximum likelihood was es ima ed pe un, he bes demog aphic model was selec ed acco ding o Akaike’s in o ma ion c i e ion (AIC). AIC alues we e escaled in e ms o AIC di e ences (Di) acco ding o he o mula: Di = AICi −AICmin. A model wi h a DAIC alue o 0 and he highes AIC weigh (wi) se ed as he bes model. A pa ame ic boo s apping app oach was used o cons uc 95% confidence in e als o he es ima ed pa ame e s unning 100 boo s ap eplica es using ini ialized alues om he bes model (Exco fie e al., 2013). 2.6 En i onmen al niche modeling An en i onmen al niche modeling app oach was implemen ed o p edic con empo a y and his o ical geog aphic dis ibu ions o sui able a eas o he cac us mo h in i s na i e ange. En i onmen al niche models (ENMs) we e used o de e mine he impac o his o ical and con empo a y componen s o landscape he e ogenei y on C. cac o um di e sifica ion as is de ailed below in he landscape genomic analysis sec ion. ENMs we e buil using MaxEn .3.4.1 (Phillips e al., 2006) and he bioclima ic da a a ailable in CHELSA .1.2 da abase (h ps://chelsa-clima e.o g/ bioclim/). Model pa ame e s in MaxEn we e selec ed and op imized using he kuenm (Cobos e al., 2019) R package. Fo bo h empo al bioclima ic condi ions, p esen -day and Las Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 kya), we e alua ed 15 en i onmen al a iables e ie ed a 30 a c-sec (~1 km) o esolu ion. Fou bioclima ic a iables (Bio 8, 9, 18 and 19) we e disca ded o Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g04 ha ing a ificial b eaks (Oli ei a e al., 2020). Highly co ela ed a iables (R > 0.9) acco ding o a iance infla ion ac o c i e ion we e excluded o downs eam analyses esul ing in a final da ase o six bioclima ic a iables (Bio 2, 3, 5, 13, 14 and 15). Sui abili y maps du ing he LGM we e ob ained by p ojec ing he p esen -day ENM on o LGM bioclima ic condi ions de i ed om he Communi y Clima e Sys em Model (CCSM4; B aconno e al., 2007) esul ing in wo sui abili y maps based on bioclima ic a iables da a (Se 1, Clima ic CURR and Clima ic LGM om he ea e ). Addi ionally, we cons uc ed ENMs o fi e o he se en na i e hos species o C. cac o um conside ing he a o emen ioned app oach o a iable selec ion and model building. ENM o O. penicillige a and O. bonae ensis could no be implemen ed due o limi ed occu ence da a. The esul ing ENMs ob ained o cu en and LGM condi ions om each hos species we e used as a iables o build an addi ional ENM o C. cac o um (Se 2, Hos CURR and Hos LGM om he ea e ). A hi d ENM was cons uc ed o C. cac o um conside ing he inpu o bo h he bioclima ic a iables (Se 1) and he hos plan ENMs (Se 2) (Se 3; Clima ic-Hos CURR and Clima ic-Hos LGM om he ea e ). Occu ence da a o he hos species and C. cac o um we e ob ained om field su eys made om 2007 o 2019 and complemen ed, a e de ailed cu a ion, wi h dis ibu ion in o ma ion a ailable a GBIF (www.gbi .o g). Redundan occu ences (e.g. poin s occu ing wi hin 1,500 km 2 )we e excluded using spThin (Aiello-Lammens e al., 2015) R package. A e hinning occu ence da a, 81 eco ds o C. cac o um loca ions and hei associa ed occu ance o 205 hos species emained [O. quimilo (50), O. megapo amica (47), O. iopla ense (39), O. ela a (38), and O. anacan ha (31)] and we e used o conduc ENMs. Model pe o mance o each scena io was e alua ed independen ly based on s a is ical significance (Pa ial ROC), omission a es (OR), and he Akaike in o ma ion c i e ion co ec ed o small sample sizes (AICc) using he kuenm (Cobos e al., 2019) R package. 2.7 Landscape genomic analyses A landscape genomic app oach was implemen ed o s udy po en ial ac o s ha could explain pa e ns o gene ic di e en ia ion wi hin C. cac o um.Asameasu eo gene ic di e en ia ion, pai wise F ST es ima es we e de i ed om genome- wide SNP da a using he Wei and Cocke ham (1984) me hod wi h he S AMPP (Pemble on e al., 2013) R package and 9,999 boo s ap eplica es. We e alua ed se e al plausible scena ios o popula ion connec i i y based on his o ical and con empo a y spa ial and ecological da a. Isola ion by esis ance scena ios (IBR) we e es ed by calcula ing esis ance su aces based on he sui abili y maps ob ained om ENMs o p esen -day and LGM condi ions conside ing di e en subse s o ac o s: (i) only clima ic a iables (Clima ic CURR and Clima ic LGM ); (ii) clima e-based habi a sui abili y maps conside ing he hos species dis ibu ion (Hos CURR and Hos LGM ); and (iii) combining clima ic a iables and clima e-based habi a sui abili y maps o hos species dis ibu ion (Clima ic-Hos CURR and Clima ic-Hos LGM ). Resis ance dis ances o all pai s o popula ions we e calcula ed using an eigh -neighbo cell connec ion scheme in Ci cui scape .5 (Hall e al., 2021) h ough Julia .1.5.2 (h ps://julialang.o g/). We also calcula ed esis ance dis ances based on a “fla landscape” whe e all cells ha e an equal esis ance alue (=1) ep esen ing a null model o isola ion by esis ance (IBR NULL ). An isola ion by dis ance scena io was also e alua ed using weigh ed opog aphic dis ances (IBD WTD ), which inco po a e an addi ional o e land dis ance co e ed by an o ganism due o changes in ele a ion imposed by he opog aphy. The IBD WTD dis ance ma ix was calcula ed on a digi al ele a ion model (DEM) a ~1 km o esolu ion e ie ed om Wo ldClim .2.1 (Fick and Hijmans, 2017) da ase using he TopoWeigh edDis unc ion implemen ed in he opoDis ance (Fick and Hijmans, 2017;Wang, 2020)R package. We assumed a linea unc ion o weigh aspec changes (hFunc ion pa ame e ) and an exponen ial unc ion o weigh he slope ( Func ion pa ame e ) (e.g. Nogue ales e al., 2021). Clima ic dissimila i ies we e es ima ed be ween popula ions o e alua e an isola ion by en i onmen scena io (IBE CLI ). En i onmen al da a was ex ac ed om he 15 CHELSA bioclima ic a iables o each o he 28 sampling si es, as well as om 500 andom poin s co e ing ou s udy a ea o a oid po en ial biases esul ing om only conside ing condi ions a ocal si es. Due o collinea i y among he bioclima ic a iables, we an a PCA using he ade4 R package and summa ized he en i onmen al a ia ion in he h ee fi s axes accoun ing o ca. 82% (PC1 = 43.79%; PC2 = 23.96%; PC3 = 14.31%) o o al a ia ion. The en i onmen al dissimila i y ma ix was ob ained by calcula ing he Euclidean dis ances o PC sco es be ween pai s o sampling si es (O ego e al., 2021). To es he ela i e ole o hos use in popula ion gene ic s uc u e in C. cac o um, a hos plan dis ance ma ix (IBH) was buil conside ing he hos species whe e mo hs we e collec ed. We cons uc ed a bina y ma ix coded wi h each hos species pe sampling si e, and an a PCA using he ade4 R package o build a dis ance ma ix wi h o al PCs a ia ion. IBH was ob ained by calcula ing he Euclidean dis ances o PC sco es be ween pai s o sampling si es. Rela ionships be ween explana o y dis ance ma ices based on landscape he e ogenei y (IBRs, IBD WTD ,IBE CLI ), and he con empo a y pa e ns o hos use (IBH) wi h he gene ic di e en ia ion be ween C. cac o um popula ions (F ST )we e e alua ed using uni a ia e and mul iple ma ix eg essions wi h andomiza ion using he unc ion MMRR (Wang, 2013)as implemen ed in R. An ini ial ull model was cons uc ed conside ing all significan explana o y e ms iden ified p e iously in uni a ia e analysis, and a final bes -fi model was selec ed using a backwa d-s epwise p ocedu e by p og essi ely emo ing non significan a iables un il all e ained e ms wi hin he model we e significan (Wang, 2013;O ego e al., 2014). The esul was he minimal mos adequa e model o explaining he a iabili y in he esponse a iable, whe e only he significan explana o y e ms we e e ained. Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g05 2.8 Popula ion gene ic di e si y and clima e/habi a s abili y Gi en ha sui able en i onmen s end o suppo la ge e ec i e popula ion sizes (Ca na al e al., 2009), we es ed whe he he egions exhibi ing high gene ic di e si y we e hose whe e sui able clima ic condi ions emained s able h ough ime, om he LGM o he p esen . To es his hypo hesis, en i onmen al s abili y maps we e cons uc ed by a e aging cu en and LGM sui abili y maps ollowing Soley- Gua dia e al. (2019). Fo each sampling si e, alues o clima e/ habi a s abili y we e ex ac ed o each o he h ee scena ios conside ing (i) only clima ic a iables (S abili y ENV ), (ii) clima e- based habi a sui abili y maps o hos species (S abili y HOST ), and (iii) combining clima ic a iables and clima e-based habi a sui abili y maps o hos species (S abili y ENV-HOST ). Ras e calcula ions we e conduc ed using he as e R package. Nuclea and mi ochond ial di e si y we e cha ac e ized o each o he 28 sampling si es. Gene ic di e si y es ima es we e no malized o h ee indi iduals pe sampling loca ion o a oid po en ial bias esul ing om une en popula ion sample size ( ange: 3–11 indi iduals). Fo nDNA, expec ed he e ozygosi ies (H E ) and nucleo ide di e si y (p) we e calcula ed using he di eRsi y (Keenan e al., 2013) R package, and DNAsp 6 (Rozas e al., 2017), espec i ely. We also es ima ed pand haplo ype di e si y (H d ) o m DNA da a using DNAsp. Co ela ions be ween s abili y alues and es ima es o nuclea (H E ,p) and m DNA (H D ,p) popula ion gene ic di e si y we e es ed using linea eg essions. Longi ude and la i ude we e also included as explana o y ac o s o accoun o po en ial geog aphical clines o gene ic di e si y (Guo, 2012). 3 Resul s 3.1 Genomic da a We success ully geno yped 138 indi iduals o C. cac o um using ddRAD sequencing which a e ep esen a i e o popula ions eeding on bo h exo ic O. ficus-indica (71 indi iduals), and na i e hos plan s O. megapo amica (34), O. iopla ense (11), O. ela a (10), O. bonae ensis (4), O. penicillige a (3), O. quimilo (3), and O. anacan ha (2) along h ee biogeog aphic egions. A e fil e ing s eps, he a e age numbe o pai ed-end eads e ained pe indi idual was 1,859,116, o which an a e age o 1,253,277 eads mapped o he C. cac o um e e ence genome. A e disca ding loci in linkage disequilib ium and unde selec ion, we eco e ed a o al o 3,506 biallelic SNPs wi h an a e age co e age o 30× (Table S2). A o al o 143 indi iduals om he same 28 loca ions we e success ully sequenced o a agmen o 790 bp o he COI gene. The analysis o m DNA da a e ealed 66 haplo ypes, 171 a iable si es, 97 o which we e pa simony-in o ma i e sample-wide. 3.2 Assessing popula ion genomic s uc u e Clus e ing analysis wi h sNMF indica ed K = 6 as he mos likely numbe o gene ic clus e s. While all gene ic g oups we e spa ially s uc u ed (No h, Cen al, Wes e n, Sou heas , Sou hwes and Eas ), no gene ic s uc u e based on hos plan s was obse ed. Popula ion gene ic s uc u e analyses also e ealed a ce ain deg ee o admix u e among geog aphic g oups; some No he n and Cen al indi iduals exhibi ed a ela i ely high deg ee o admix u e wi h bo h he Wes e n and Eas e n clus e s (Figu es 2A–C). In e es ingly, No he n, Cen al and Wes e n popula ions appea ed o o m a unique clus e (Cen al lineage om he ea e ) when assuming K = 3, whe eas bo h Sou he n (Sou h lineage om he ea e ) and Eas e n (Eas lineage om he ea e ) popula ions emained as sepa a ed panmic ic g oups. Wi h K = 4, he Sou he n popula ion appea ed subdi ided in o wo geog aphic uni s; Sou heas e n and Sou hwes e n. Finally, wi h K = 5, No he n popula ions appea ed sepa a ed om he Cen al ones (Figu e S2). In he PCA he Eas e n lineage appea s sepa a ed om he Cen al and Sou h lineages along PC1, whe eas he Sou h lineage can be dis inguished om he Cen al lineage along PC2 (Figu e 2D). The median-joining ne wo k ob ained wi h m DNA sequence da a e ealed s ong spa ial gene ic s uc u e consis en wi h he clus e s iden ified wi h nDNA da a (Figu e 2E). The Cen al haplog oup iden ified wi h a s a -like pa e n had one o he mos equen haplo ypes and was sepa a ed by se en mu a ional s eps om he Eas e n haplog oup, whe eas a leas ou mu a ional s eps sepa a ed he Cen al and No he n haplog oups. Wes e n, sou heas e n and Sou hwes e n haplog oups appea ed close o he Cen al haplog oup sepa a ed by ew mu a ional s eps (Figu e 2E). 3.3 Species ee econs uc ion Phylogene ic ela ionships in e ed wi h SNAPP we e consis en wi h he hie a chical spa ial gene ic s uc u e obse ed wi h sNMF (Figu es 2B,C;Figu e S2). The mos ances al spli co esponded o he sepa a ion o Sou h and Eas lineages om he Cen al lineage. Sou hwes e n and Sou heas e n clus e s, as well as Wes , Cen al and No h clus e s di e ged subsequen ly om hei espec i e lineages, as obse ed in clus e ing analyses. 3.4 Demog aphic in e ence using coalescen -based simula ions The scena io conside ing ull asymme ic in e lineage gene flow (model 8) was he mos suppo ed among he nine demog aphic models es ed wi h Fas simcoal2 (Table S3). Unde his model, di e gence among he h ee main lineages o C. cac o um was es ima ed o ha e occu ed du ing he La e Pleis ocene (Figu e 3; Table 1). Specifically, his model in ol es an ini ial spli (T DIV1 )o he Cen al lineage ~75 kya (conside ing wo gene a ions pe yea in na i e hos species, as epo ed by Va one e al., 2014), and a mo e ecen spli (T DIV2 ) sepa a ing he Sou h and Eas lineages occu ing ~19 kya. Demog aphic simula ions es ima ed an e ec i e popula ion size close o 250,000 o he Cen al lineage (NE CENTER ), which was six imes highe han he alue ob ained o he Eas lineage (NE EAST = 41,551). Es ima es o gene flow a es a ied among lineages wi h he highes a e o con empo a y gene Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g06 FIGURE 3 Visual ep esen a ion o he mos suppo ed demog aphic model (Model 8) es ima ed using Fas simcoal2. Pa ame e es ima es included iming o popula ion di e gence (T DIV1 and T DIV2 ), his o ical and con empo a y e ec i e popula ion sizes (NE ANC1 and NE ANC2 ), and asymme ic a es o gene flow (M SC ,M CS ;M ES ,M SE ;M CE , and M EC ). A B D E C FIGURE 2 Popula ion gene ic s uc u e and phylogene ic ela ionships o he C. cac o um popula ions. (A) Pie cha s ep esen he a e age ances y coe ficien o indi iduals belonging o each o 28 sampling si es dis ibu ed along h ee biogeog aphic egions. (B) Species ee econs uc ed by SNAPP; numbe s in nodes deno e pos e io p obabili y. (C) Resul s o indi idual assignmen in gene ic clus e s using sNMF. Ve ical ba s ep esen he ances y coe ficien o each indi idual o he co esponding gene ic clus e . (D) PCA using he wo majo axes o genomic a ia ion. (E) Median- joining ne wo k ob ained wi h m DNA da a. Image shows an adul male o C.cac o um.. Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g07 flow es ima ed o occu om he Cen al o he Eas lineage (M CE = 1.50 × 10 −5 mig a ion a e by gene a ion) and he lowes om he Cen al lineage o he Sou h lineages (M CS = 2.71 × 10 −8 mig a ion a e by gene a ion) (Table 1). 3.5 Ecological niche modeling h ough ime Ecological niche models (ENMs) o he ocal species (C. cac o um) and hos species exhibi ed an o e all good pe o mance as sugges ed by he ela i ely high AUC sco es (Tables S4,S5). Sui abili y maps o hos species we e conco dan wi h hei espec i e cu en dis ibu ions (Figu e S3). Among hos species, he a eas o highe sui abili y o Opun ia megapo amica we e p edic ed in cen al and sou he n A gen ina; o O. ela a in cen al- eas e n, and o O. iopla ense in eas e n A gen ina (in he a ea o influence o he Pa ana-La Pla a i e basin). Opun ia anacan ha and O. quimilo ha e mo e es ic ed sui abili y a eas in no hwes e n and cen al A gen ina, espec i ely. P ojec ions du ing he LGM indica ed changes in hos dis ibu ion (Figu e S3) ha sugges an inc eased habi a sui abili y o almos all hos plan s, excep o O. anacan ha whose sui abili y a eas ha e been es ic ed o he cen al-eas e n egion du ing he LGM. Ins ead, habi a sui abili y o O. megapo amica and O. ela a appea s ex ended in o he no he n egion, whe eas he p ojec ions indica e an ex ended dis ibu ion in cen al A gen ina o O. quimilo. Finally, sui able habi a s o O. iopla ense ex ended o no he n and cen al A gen ina. Models o C. cac o um (Se 1: Clima ic CURR ,Se 2:Hos CURR ,Se 3: Clima ic-Hos CURR ) indica ed simila p edic ed dis ibu ions (Figu e S4). Howe e , he mos suppo ed model o C. cac o um acco ding o AIC alues was one ha conside ed as inpu a iables he p edic ed dis ibu ion o he hos plan s (Hos CURR ). Addi ional in o ma ion on he esul s o ENMs o bo h C. cac o um and hos species a e de ailed in Tables S4,S5. The p esen -day dis ibu ion in e ed by he mos suppo ed scena io (Hos CURR ) was in line wi h he con empo a y ange o he mo h. Unde his model, highe sui abili y a eas we e p edic ed in bo h Chaco and no h o Pampa biogeog aphic egions whe eas a eas o lowe sui abili y we e p edic ed in he sou he n po ions o he Pampas and he Mon e biogeog aphic egions (Figu e 1B). O he biogeog aphic p o inces (Yungas, Puna and P epuna) had ex emely low sui abili y alues o C. cac o um. P ojec ions o ENM o LGM p edic ed high en i onmen al sui abili y along he Chaco biogeog aphic p o ince o he mos sou he n po ion o Pampas, wi h a eas o low sui abili y loca ed in eas e n A gen ina, a confluencezoneo LaPla a i e basin (Figu e 1C). 3.6 Landscape genomic analyses Es ima es o gene ic di e en ia ion (F ST ) among sampling si es anged om 0.023 o 0.448 o nDNA da a (Table S6). Uni a ia e ma ix eg essions indica ed ha nuclea gene ic di e en ia ion was significan ly co ela ed wi h all dis ance ma ices excep wi h he cu en pa e n o hos plan use (IBH) consis en wi h clus e ing analysis, and bo h explana o y e ms o landscape he e ogenei y: Clima ic CURR and Clima ic-Hos CURR (Table S7). Ye , only Clima ic-Hos LGM was significan ly e ained in he bes -fi model in he backwa d-s epwise p ocedu e (Table 2). 3.7 Popula ion gene ic di e si y and clima e/habi a s abili y We ound highe nuclea and mi ochond ial di e si y in No he n, Cen al and Eas e n popula ions, han in Sou he n TABLE 1 Pa ame e s in e ed om coalescen simula ions wi h Fas simcoal2 unde he bes -suppo ed demog aphic model (Model 8; Figu e 3). Model 8 95% Confidence in e al Pa ame e Poin es ima e Lowe bound Uppe bound NE ANC1 3,504,318 2,576,620 3,858,949 NE ANC2 11,746 3,773 21,102 NE CENTER 245,957 208,570 380,730 NE EAST 41,551 35,596 54,151 T DIV2 75,513 61,524 120,375 T DIV1 19,207 17,202 23,310 M ES 1.18 × 10 −6 8.86 × 10 −7 1.75 × 10 −6 M SE 4.68 × 10 −8 5.41 × 10 −11 1.65 × 10 −6 M CS 2.71 × 10 −8 3.55 × 10 −11 6.83 × 10 −8 M SC 6.37 × 10 −6 4.37 × 10 −6 7.32 × 10 −6 M CE 1.50 × 10 −5 1.23 × 10 −5 1.67 × 10 −5 M EC 2.98 × 10 −5 3.78 × 10 −11 1.42 × 10 −6 Fo each pa ame e , poin es ima e and lowe and uppe 95% confidence in e als a e shown. T DIV1 and T DIV2 , popula ion di e gence; NE ANC1 and NE ANC2 , his o ical and con empo a y e ec i e popula ion sizes; M SC ,M CS ,M ES ,M SE ,M CE , and M EC , asymme ic a es o gene flow among lineages. Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g08 popula ions (Figu e 4;Table S8). Linea eg ession analyses e ealed ha nuclea gene ic di e si y was significan ly co ela ed wi h la i ude bu no wi h longi ude (Table 3). Likewise, es ima es o nuclea gene ic di e si y o bo h H E and pwe e posi i ely co ela ed wi h he h ee en i onmen al s abili y es ima es (S abili y ENV , S abili y HOST and S abili y ENV-HOST ) o he LGM (~21 Kya) o he p esen . Con e sely, mi ochond ial gene ic di e si y es ima ed wi h H D and pwe e no co ela ed wi h geog aphic a iables no en i onmen al s abili y (Table 3;Figu e 4). 4 Discussion Nuclea SNPs and m DNA da a e ealed significan popula ion s uc u e in C. cac o um. Landscape genomic analyses p o ided suppo o he hypo hesis ha habi a connec i i y based on a combina ion o clima ic condi ions and habi a sui abili y, influenced by shi s in hos species dis ibu ions du ing LGM, was he main ac o shaping popula ion gene ic s uc u e. Al hough pa e ns o hos species use appea ed o be non influen ial on C. cac o um di e sifica ion, shi s in he dis ibu ion o Opun ia hos s, media ed by clima ic changes du ing he Qua e na y, had a di ec influence on he dis ibu ion and genomic a ia ion o he ocal species. Such shi s in hos dis ibu ions may ha e gene a ed agmen ed anges ha led o educ ions o gene flow among mo h popula ions, p omo ing gene ic di e en ia ion. Ou esul s also suppo ed he habi a s abili y hypo hesis, whe eby popula ions inhabi ing egions o g ea e habi a sui abili y du ing he las 21,000 yea s ha bo ed mo e gene ic di e si y han hose ha pe sis ed in a eas o lowe habi a s abili y. The hypo hesis ha he geog aphically widesp ead cul i a ion o O. ficus-indica acili a ed con empo a y gene flow among o he wise geog aphically dis an popula ions can be ejec ed, on he basis o he esul s o popula ion genomic analyses e ealing limi ed gene ic admix u e and a hie a chical pa e n o popula ion di e en ia ion mainly conco dan wi h geog aphy. 4.1 E ec s o Qua e na y landscape composi ion on popula ions di e en ia ion Gene ic clus e ing analyses e ealed h ee majo lineages defined by geog aphy: Cen al, Eas and Sou h (Figu es 2 and 3). Coalescen - based demog aphic modeling sugges ed ha hese lineages began o di e ge du ing he La e Qua e na y, app oxima ely 75 kya. The ea lies spli in ol ed popula ions o he Chacoan biogeog aphic domain (he ea e “Chaco”), including popula ions om No h, Wes and Cen al A gen ina, om he Pampean biogeog aphic egion (he ea e “Pampa”) ha includes he Sou h and Eas lineages (Figu es 1,2). P io o his spli , he egional con ac ion o sub opical and opical biomes made he Chaco and he Pampa biomes mo e alike (O iz-Jau eguiza and Clade a, 2006). Subsequen ly, du ing he Qua e na y, majo clima ic shi s ook place in he a ea, leading o he isola ion o he Chacoan xe ic woodlands om he ypical g asslands o he Pampean egion. Such clima ic changes we e p omo ed by he opog aphic econfigu a ion o Andean and sub-Andean Piedmon and he upli o he eas e n o og aphic sys ems (known as he Sie as Pampeanas) associa ed wi h he Pe ipampasic o ogenic a c (O iz- Jau eguiza and Clade a, 2006;Spe anza e al., 2007;Cala ayud- Masca ell e al., 2022). These e en s p oduced a ain-shadow e ec ha esul ed in he ex eme xe ic condi ions ha p e ailed in his a ea. Clima e changes du ing he Qua e na y, which included cold, d y glacial cycles al e na ing wi h wa m, mois in e glacial pe iods, a ec ed hese egions causing he expansion and con ac ion o open woodlands and g asslands (O iz-Jau eguiza and Clade a, 2006). This dynamic likely p omo ed changes in flo is ic composi ion o such egions, a ec ing he dis ibu ions o hos species and consequen habi a sui abili y o C. cac o um,p omo ing he di e gence be ween he Cen al lineage (Chaco) and Eas , Sou h lineages (Pampean) (Figu es 2,3). The spli be ween Eas and Sou h lineages was es ima ed o ha e occu ed app oxima ely 19 kya. Regional clima e models sugges ha his iming is coinciden wi h an inc ease in p ecipi a ion along he eas e n oo hills o he Andes (Cook and Vizy, 2006;O iz- Jau eguiza and Clade a, 2006). These opog aphical ea u es oge he wi h Qua e na y clima ic dynamics in he egion main ained a agmen ed dis ibu ion o C. cac o um hos species om he Pampa (Mou elle and Ezcu a, 1997). This likely limi ed dispe sal o C. cac o um, es ic ing he Eas lineage o he mo e humid en i onmen s wi h deep e ile soils ypical o he Pampa, and he Sou h lineage o he d ie g asslands o he no he n bo de o he Pa agonian s eppe, bo h egions wi h di e se pa e ns o hos species composi ion (Va one e al., 2014). TABLE 2 Resul s o mul iple ma ix eg ession wi h andomiza ion (MMRR) es ing o he ela ionships be ween popula ion gene ic di e en ia ion (F ST ) and explana o y a iables ep esen ing weigh ed opog aphic dis ance (isola ion by dis ance, IBD WTD ), clima ic dissimila i y (isola ion by en i onmen , IBE CLI ), hos plan dis ance (*IBH), and al e na i e isola ion by esis ance (IBR) scena ios. Va iable R 2 p Explana o y e m LGM ENV-HOST 0.416 16.365 0.001 Rejec ed e ms Clima ic dissimila i y (IBE CLI )−0.476 0.831 Topog aphic dis ance (IBD WTD )−2.058 0.301 IBR –Hos CURR 3.251 0.278 IBR –Clima ic LGM 4.808 0.117 IBR –Hos LGM −5.834 0.087 Fla landscape –IBR NULL −3.654 0.278 IBR scena ios consis o cu en and pas habi a sui abili y based on (i) only clima ic a iables (*Clima ic CURR , and Clima ic LGM ), (ii) clima e-based habi a sui abili y maps o hos species (Hos CURR and Hos LGM ), and (iii) combining clima ic a iables clima e-based habi a sui abili y maps o hos species (*Clima ic-Hos CURR and Clima ic-Hos LGM ). IBR NULL ep esen s an IBR scena io whe e all pixel alues a e equal o 1 (fla landscape). R 2 , eg ession coe ficien ; , -s a is ic; p, significance le el. *Clima ic CURR , Clima ic-Hos CURR , and cu en pa e n o hos use (IBH) we e excluded om he ini ial ull model due o hese e ms esul ed non-significan in hei espec i e uni a ia e analysis. Po eda-Ma ı ´nez e al. 10.3389/ e o.2023.1260857 F on ie s in Ecology and E olu ion on ie sin.o g09