Are the unhappy unemployed to blame for unrest? : Scrutinising participation in the Arab Spring uprisings

Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy. 2020; 20190007 Ka i Paasonen1,2 A e he unhappy unemployed o blame o un es ? Sc u inising pa icipa ion in he A ab Sp ing up isings 1Sa e Globe, Helsinki, Finland, E-mail: ka i.paasonen@ uni.fi 2Tampe e Peace Resea ch Ins i u e (TAPRI), Tampe e Uni e si y, Tampe e, Finland, E-mail: ka i.paasonen@ uni.fi Abs ac : Unemploymen is conside ed a signi ican d i e behind he so-called A ab Sp ing, and mo e gene ally be- hind p o es s, ebellions, and ci il wa s. Howe e , he empi ical e idence o his hypo hesised link be ween unemploymen and poli ical ins abili y is scan and con adic o y. This a icle con ibu es o illing his gap. In addi ion, his is he i s s udy which will concen a e on he ole o unemploymen in he case o he A ab Sp ing up isings. The s udy u ilises eg ession analysis and se e al su ey da a se s. The esul s show ha compa ed o he employed, he unemployed a e no mo e likely o ha e pa icipa ed in he A ab Sp ing un- es s o p o es s in he A ab wo ld in gene al. Fu he analyses e eal ha , as expec ed, he unemployed a e less sa is ied wi h li e and no pa icula ly in e es ed in poli ics. In u n, being dissa is ied wi h li e does no in luence he likelihood ha an indi idual e ol s, bu hose in e es ed in poli ics a e conside ably mo e ac i e p o es e s. Taken oge he , he esul s indica e ha he A ab unemployed we e unhappy, bu due o hei low in e es in poli ics his dissa is ac ion did no d i e hem o he s ee s. These indings oge he wi h some ea lie esul s om di e en co ne s o he wo ld sugges ha he linkage o unemploymen and poli ical ins abili y is ema kably weake han o en assumed. Keywo ds: A ab Sp ing, insu gency, p o es mobilisa ion, unemploymen DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0007 1 In oduc ion In Decembe 2010 in a Tunisian p o incial own, he ui endo Mohamed Bouazizi se himsel on i e o p o es agains he ac ions o co up ed police. This e en spa ked un es s which also e up ed in he capi al Tu- nis, and soon unsea ed p esiden Ben Ali. Re ol s inspi ed by he peace ul e olu ion in Tunisia olled h ough mos o he A ab wo ld in 2011. These up isings ha came o be known as he A ab Sp ing oppled se e al ule s who had go e ned o decades, bu hey also spa ked b u al ci il wa s. Al hough mos ly wha is consid- e ed as he A ab Sp ing occu ed in 2011, i s impac is clea ly e iden s ill oday. The wa in Sy ia has con inued o mo e han 8 yea s and caused epo edly o e 500,000 a ali ies. The e a e ongoing ci il wa s also in Yemen and Libya, and he e is much u bulence and insecu i y elsewhe e in he egion. Unemploymen is o en nomina ed as a d i e behind hese up isings, and he A ab Sp ing was no he i s ime ha unemploymen has been blamed o io s in he egion (O away & Hamzawy, 2011, pp. 4–6; Sadiki, 2000). Also ou side he A ab wo ld, unemploymen is commonly seen as a ac o which conside ably inc eases he likelihood o a ious o ms o poli ical ins abili y om p o es ing and io ing o e o ism and ci il wa s. As i is assumed ha unemploymen causes poli ical ins abili y, his is hen ollowed by assuming ha c ea ing employmen is a way o os e peace (Be man, Callen, Fel e , & Shapi o, 2011, p. 497). Howe e , he e is ha dly any empi ical e idence o con i m ei he he link be ween unemploymen and poli ical ins abili y o he link be ween job c ea ion and inc eased s abili y (C ame , 2011; Holmes, McCo d, Hagen-Zanke , Be gh, & Zanke , 2013). No has, in he case o he A ab Sp ing, he ole o unemploymen been s udied ho oughly. This s udy aims a illing his gap. The a icle will p ima ily ocus on he speci ic case o he A ab Sp ing, bu i will also analyse he ela ionship be ween unemploymen and p o es in he A ab coun ies mo e gene ally. To unde s and i s po en ial ole behind he ebellions in he A ab wo ld, a ew no ions abou unemploymen in he egion a e wo h making. Figu e 1 shows ha unemploymen in he A ab wo ld is subs an ial compa ed o he wo ld a e age. No ably, howe e , he A ab coun ies as a whole did no see he inc ease in unemploymen Ka i Paasonen is he co esponding au ho . © 2020 Ka i Paasonen, published by Wal e de G uy e GmbH, Be lin/Bos on. This wo k is licensed unde he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion 4.0 Public License. 1 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER a e he 2008 inancial c isis. Ac ually, in 2010, on he e e o he A ab Sp ing, he a e age o he unemploymen a es o he A ab coun ies was a he lowes le el since 1991. Figu e 1: Unemploymen a es in he A ab wo ld, he Eu opean Union, and globally 1991–2018. In he A ab wo ld, h ee g oups especially su e ed om high unemploymen a es: he you h, he educa ed and women. A highe unemploymen a e among he you h is no uncommon. As Figu e 1 shows, he young we e unemployed mo e o en also elsewhe e. In many A ab coun ies, unemploymen a es among he highly educa ed we e highe compa ed o hose wi h lowe educa ion le els. This, in u n, was a unique si ua ion in he wo ld (Chaaban, 2010, pp. 18–20; Golds one, 2011, p. 12; Mi kin, 2013, p. 24; Wo ld Bank, 2019). Figu e 2 shows he unemploymen a es in he A ab coun ies p io o he e up ion o he A ab Sp ing. The unemploymen a es p esen ed in Figu e 1 and Figu e 2 a e aken om he da a collec ed by he In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion. This da a is mainly based on labou o ce su eys. The e a e ce ainly some inaccu acies in i bu hey do no a ec he o e all pic u e o Figu e 2; he A ab coun ies we e e y he e ogeneous in e ms o unemploymen when he A ab Sp ing s a ed. Whe e many A ab coun ies aced signi ican p oblems in p o iding employmen oppo uni ies o hei ci izens, he e has been a lo o labou mig a ion o oil expo ing Gul coun ies (Mi kin, 2013, p. 17). Figu e 2: Unemploymen a es in he A ab League membe coun ies in 2010. The A ab Sp ing has been seen as an ou come o a ious ac o s; high unemploymen , a la ge sha e o he you h popula ion, au oc a ic and bad go e nance, human igh iola ions, inc eased ood p ices, an inc ease in educa ional a ainmen , social media, a s a e domina ed economic sys em, and oil. Unemploymen is maybe he mos o en men ioned o hese ac o s (see o example Allansson, Baumann, Taub, Themné , & Wallens een, 2012; Campan e & Cho , 2012; Gel in, 2012; Golds one, 2011; Ho man & Jamal, 2012; Malik & Awadallah, 2013; Mi kin, 2013; O away & Hamzawy, 2011). 2 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Paasonen Some ha e seen he ela ionship be ween unemploymen and he A ab Sp ing clea ly as causal: he In e na- ional Labou O ganiza ion (2011) i led i s analysis s aigh o wa dly “You h unemploymen in he A ab wo ld is a majo cause o ebellion.”Some ha e been mo e cau ious in hei wo ding. Malik and Awadallah (2013, p. 296) posed ha “A ab e olu ions we e ueled by po e y, unemploymen and lack o economic oppo uni y.” The linkage has also been p omo ed in mass media, o example in an a icle by The Gua dian (2011) “The us a ed gene a ion a he hea o he p o es s ell how hei p og ess is being s i led by unemploymen and co up ion.” The ela ionship be ween unemploymen and he A ab Sp ing is seldom analysed mo e closely; s ill, some ha e done sligh ly mo e han jus men ioned i . The esul s o Campan e and Cho (2012) indica e ha people a e mo e willing o p o es in coun ies wi h high unemploymen and a apid inc ease in yea s o schooling, and mos A ab coun ies appea ed in his g oup o coun ies. Byun and Hollande (2015) ind ha unemploymen did no ha e a signi ican impac on he le el o un es a coun y aced du ing he A ab Sp ing. Some s udies ha e, based on di e en su ey da a se s, analysed d i e s o indi idual le el p o es pa icipa- ion. Dohe y and Sch aede (2015) s udy Tunisia and ind ha he e we e no s a is ically signi ican di e ences be ween he unemployed and he employed as o how o en hey ook pa in p o es s be o e he ous ing o Ben Ali and in p o es s a e elec ions. Sha iq and Vignoles (2015) no e ha “pe haps su p isingly” hei desc ip i e da a do no show ha he unemployed would ha e been mo e likely o p o es . U ilising he i s wa e o he A ab Ba ome e su ey, Ho man and Jamal (2012, pp. 181–184) epo ha – “[c]on a y o wha migh be expec ed” – being unemployed lowe s he likelihood o an indi idual o p o es . Beissinge , Jamal, & Mazu (2012, p. 13) as well as Ho man and Jamal (2014, pp. 599, 603–604) ha e s udied p o es pa icipa ion in Tunisia and Egyp based on he second wa e o he A ab Ba ome e . Bo h s udies ind ha unemploymen was no a s a is ically signi ican p edic o o pa icipa ion in he A ab Sp ing insu gencies in ei he coun y. Taken oge he , his exis ing esea ch p o ides a mixed pic u e abou he ela ionship be ween unemploymen and he A ab Sp ing. This a icle con ibu es o he exis ing esea ch in many ways. The abo e-men ioned s udies ha e made some obse a ions abou unemploymen and he A ab Sp ing. Howe e , in hese s udies, unemploymen has been one ac o among o he s in eg ession analyses, o i has o he wise ecei ed mino a en ion. The a i- cles ha ha e analysed indi idual le el pa icipa ion, ha e mos ly s udied jus Tunisia o Tunisia and Egyp (Beissinge e  al., 2012; Dohe y & Sch aede , 2015; Ho man & Jamal, 2014; Sha iq & Vignoles, 2015). In addi- ion, ea lie s udies ha e o en modelled pa icipa ion in he A ab Sp ing based on some o he p o es s, hey ha e no discussed u he hei sca e ed indings abou unemploymen o he inspec ion o he pa icipa ion o he unemployed has been desc ip i e. E en hough unemploymen is a di icul concep in he de eloping economies, p e ious s udies ha e no paid much a en ion o how o ope a ionalise i . Fo example, Ho man and Jamal (2012) ha e coun ed all hose who ha e no epo ed being employed as unemployed. Thus, hey ha e coun ed also he e i ed, housewi es, and s uden s as “unemployed,”which is appa en ly an impe ec solu ion. He e I will pu mo e emphasis on ackling he p oblem o measu ing unemploymen in he A ab wo ld. I also pay special a en ion o he young unemployed and he educa ed unemployed. This has no been done p e iously. To my knowledge, he e a e no p io s udies ha would ha e analysed he ela ionship o he unemployed and he A ab Sp ing as ho oughly as I will do. Fu he , as will be poin ed ou , he e is in gene al su p isingly li le esea ch on he ela ionship be ween unemploymen and poli ical ins abili y. This sca ci y highligh s he impo ance o his pape as one new empi ical case s udy abou he s uggles o he unemployed. 2 Li e a u e su ey and hypo heses The A ab Sp ing mani es ed i sel in a ious o ms o poli ical ins abili y, hus i is ele an o su ey he connec- ion o unemploymen bo h o p o es ing and o o ganised iolence. The e a e wo main heo e ical app oaches sugges ing ha unemploymen inc eases he likelihood o poli ical ins abili y. The i s o hese wo is economic and i is o en aced back o Becke (1968) who s udied c imes. La e G ossman (1991) and Collie and Hoe - le (1998), among o he s, ha e p omo ed he economic app oach and applied i o con lic s. The assump ion is ha indi iduals ake pa in collec i e ac s o iolence because o ma e ial inducemen s. When op ions o non- iolen employmen a e sca ce, soldie ing migh o e people allu ing oppo uni ies o ea n money. Conse- quen ly, high unemploymen a es can uel con lic s by acili a ing he ec ui men o ebels. Fu he , Lichbach (1995, p. 342) a gues ha he unemployed will pa icipa e also in p o es s mo e p obably because hey ace no oppo uni y-cos s om losing ime a paid wo k. The second p ominen app oach is ela i e dep i a ion heo y which has been mo e in a ou o social psychologis s. Acco ding o Gu (1970), an in luen ial con ibu o o he heo y, ela i e dep i a ion is expe- 3 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER ienced by hose whose ac ual ci cums ances and commodi ies do no equal wha hey expec ed o gain and wha hey hink hey a e igh ully en i led o. The indi idual’s pe cep ion o dep i a ion is impo an , people whose expec a ions a e no me can eel hemsel es dep i ed e en i an “objec i e”ou side would conside o he wise. The ela i ely dep i ed use poli ical iolence o s uggle agains hei si ua ion. Schola s o social mo emen s ha e linked ela i e dep i a ion also wi h p o es ing; hose ela i ely dep i ed p o es o ed ess he dep i a ion hey ace (Klande mans, 2011, pp. 40–42). Howe e , a ious a gumen s challenge his assumed posi i e linkage be ween unemploymen and poli ical ins abili y. Fi s , s igma isa ion has been conside ed one o he mos impo an obs acles o he collec i e ac ion o he unemployed (Pe y & Reiss, 2011, p. 32). I public opinion and elec ed o icials conside unemploymen o be a pe sonal aul o an indi idual, he insu gence o he unemployed lacks legi imacy (Chabane & Faniel, 2011, pp. 392–393). Second, o hink ha he employed a e weal hy and happy and he unemployed a e dep i ed and unhappy migh be a simplis ic and a Wes e n mindse . C ame (2011, p. 17) eminds ha globally he e a e millions o people whose wo king condi ions a e “so d ead ul ha i is p obably no mo e di icul o ec ui [ ebels and soldie s] among hem” han among he unemployed. The e a e also some issues ela ed o he concep o being unemployed. The de ini ion o unemploymen equi es ha an indi idual is looking o wo k. In he de eloping economies, people a e maybe no looking o wo k because hey conside seeking wo k by con en ional means useless i he in o mal economy and sel -employmen o e he majo employmen oppo uni ies (Wo ld Bank, 2019). In he A ab wo ld mo e han 10% o he employed wo k in he in o mal sec o (Chaaban, 2010, p. 18). Ano he issue is ha in he de eloping coun ies s a e wel a e bene i s a e mos ly scan o non-exis en so people canno a o d o be unemployed in he sense unde s ood in he Wes (C ame , 2011, p. 15). Thi d, he unemployed a e a socially he e ogeneous g oup, and many o hem wan o ge id o being unemployed. Bo h hese ac o s hinde he o ma ion o a collec i e iden i y which is impo an in collec i e ac ion such as p o es ing (Chabane & Faniel, 2011, p. 394; Klande mans, 2011, p. 46). Fou h, social mo emen s a e ne e spon aneous e en s (Chabane & Faniel, 2011, p. 397). Al hough he A ab Sp ing e ol s ha e been labelled spon aneous om ime o ime, Gel in (2012, pp. 54–55) eminds how he Ap il 6 Mo emen among o he o ganisa ions was coo dina ing he Egyp ian up isings. The mo emen , o example, o ganised wen y-one ma ches o Tah i Squa e because a single ma ch could easily ha e been b oken by he secu i y o ces. Fi h, he unemployed lack esou ces such as money, poli ical skills, leade ship, o ganisa ional esou ces, and social ne wo ks which a e necessa y o mobilising a p o es (Klande mans, 2011, pp. 45–46; Schlozman & Ve ba, 1979, pp. 12–20). Fu he , p o es s do no p o ide employmen oppo uni ies o he p o es e s (Klande mans, 2011, p. 55). The a ional unemployed can hus be expec ed o de o e hei ime and skills o inding wo k a he han o p o es ing (Schlozman & Ve ba, 1979, p. 351). This so-called ee ide p oblem is no less no able in he case o au ho i a ian A ab s a es whe e io ing is indeed isky. The con en ion o he economic app oach ha money is an essen ial mo i e o an indi idual o join g oups ha use iolence is also challenged. Fo example, people ha e gi en mani old mo i a ions o joining he Colombian gue illa mo emen FARC: he allu e o mili a y li e, ge ing a gun, pe sonal p oblems, he bo edom and mise ies o daily li e, sexual ha assmen a home, he wish o ge aining and an educa ion, and poli ical ideologies (Gu ie éz-Sanín, 2008, pp. 14, 17, 20–25). Las , i insu gence is conside ed some hing people do by choice, people possibly s a igh ing when hei basic needs a e illed. This a he sugges s ha an imp o ed economic si ua ion would lead o highe le els o iolence a he same ime ha i leads o lowe le els o unemploymen (Be man e  al., 2011, pp. 497–498). Simila ly, Klande mans (2011, p. 46) sugges s ha hose who p o es a e maybe no he poo and he powe less bu hose who a e sligh ly be e o . 2.1 Empi ical e idence The ela ionship be ween unemploymen and p o es ing has gained in e es o a long ime. In he ea ly 1930s a pa h-b eaking s udy o Ma ien hal, an Aus ian illage o ex eme unemploymen , concluded ha he un- employed we e passi e and despe a e and ha pa icula ly hei poli ical in e es and ac i i y we e e y low (Jahoda, Laza s eld, Zeisel, & Fleck, 1933/2002). Some case s udies om Ge many and he Uni ed Kingdom du ing he 1930s ex apola ed simila ly and hus, o a long ime schola s ook o g an ed ha unemploymen leads o exclusion and apa hy (Baglioni, Baumga en, Chabane , & Lahusen, 2010, p. 324; Pe y & Reiss, 2011, pp. 3–6). Mo e ecen ly, Reiss and Pe y (2011) ha e shown ha he unemployed ha e s ill p o es ed in a ious coun ies and wi h a ying le els o in ensi y du ing he wo las cen u ies. Lahusen (2013) s a es ha p o es s by he unemployed in Sweden, F ance, and Ge many illus a e ha collec i e p o es ac ions by he unemployed a e much mo e common han assumed in he ea lie s udies. 4 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Paasonen By con as , Giugni (2008) and Baglioni e  al. (2010) ha e s udied he mobilisa ion and p o es s o he un- employed in di e en Eu opean coun ies and disco e ed ha hei ac ions a e in gene al spo adic o e en ma ginal, and u he ha pa icipa ion among he unemployed is a he low compa ed o, o example, peace and ecology ac i is s. Olzak, Shanahan, and McEneaney (1996) ind ha nei he he unemploymen a e no an addi ion o a change in he unemploymen a e had any e ec on he a e o ace io s in he Uni ed S a es om 1960 o 1993. La e Olzak and Shanahan (1996) in oduce some e idence ha highe unemploymen a es o black people and, aken especially oge he wi h inc eased black mig a ion, we e connec ed o an inc ease in acial io s. Mos o he s udies o p o es ing and unemploymen concen a e on Wes e n coun ies, making wo s ud- ies om Nige ia in e es ing. Based on di e en da a, hey bo h obse e ha esponden s wi h paying jobs a e mo e willing o ake pa in iolen demons a ions han he unemployed (Oye usi, 2010; Scacco, 2007). The e- la ionship be ween unemploymen and peace ul p o es is also nega i e, bu s a is ically insigni ican (Oye usi, 2010). To sum, despi e di e se conclusions om his ea lie esea ch, he e is e y li le e idence o show ha he unemployed a e ac i e io e s. E en less ha e I become con inced ha he unemployed would be ac i e p o es e s compa ed o he employed. Ra he he e idence seems o un in an opposi e di ec ion; al hough un- employmen has led o un es his happens spo adically and, gene ally, he p o es s o he unemployed appea o be a e. The e idence is no mo e conco dan in he case o unemploymen and o ganised iolence. Some s udies indica e a posi i e ela ionship be ween he wo, some sugges no ela ionship, and some s udies ha e ound, maybe mos in e es ingly, a nega i e ela ionship: he mo e unemploymen , he less iolence. In his e iew, C ame (2011, p. 24) concluded ha “The e is no emo ely con incing e idence a he c oss- coun y, la ge-N le el, a he quan i a i e case s udy le el, o a he e hnog aphic, ‘quali a i e’le el, o any bold claims ha unemploymen is a mechanis ic causal ac o in iolen con lic s in de eloping coun ies. The e idence on you h unemploymen is e en weake .” Some case s udies ha e ound ha he unemployed a e eage o s a ebelling. In a s udy, hal o he in- e iewed al-Shabaab igh e s we e unemployed when hey we e ec ui ed and he es had low-income jobs (Bo ha & Abdile, 2014, pp. 7–8). Simila ly, among he you h o he Nige ian del a, being unemployed inc eased he indi idual’s likelihood o be willing o ake pa in an a med s uggle. Bu in e es ingly, i also adul e- sponden s we e included in he analysis, being unemployed, in u n, lowe ed he likelihood ha a esponden wan s o ake up a ms (Oye usi, 2010). Based on wo da a se s, Gu ie éz-Sanín (2008, pp. 17–18) inds ha mos o he FARC igh e s we e wo king be o e joining he g oup. In he o he da a se “no one decla ed” o ha e been unemployed. Many s udies ha e ound ha unemploymen has a he a slende e ec . S udying young people in A ghanis an, Columbia, and Somalia, P oc o (2015) inds no ela ionship be ween hei unemploy- men and hei suppo o o willingness o engage in poli ical iolence. Those who a elled om Finland o con lic zones in Sy ia conside ed an an i-Muslim a mosphe e he mos cen al eason o lea ing; hey had had a ying employmen and socio-economic si ua ions (C eu z, 2015). As one app oach is o s udy pa icipa ion a he indi idual le el as abo e, ano he way is o s udy empo al and egional ela ions. Be man e  al. (2011) ind ha in A ghanis an, I aq, and he Philippines highe unemploy- men a es p edic a lowe in ensi y o insu gen a acks agains go e nmen o ces and hei allies. In he same way, in No he n I eland, Whi e (1993, pp. 580–582) and Thompson (1989) ha e bo h ound ha depending on model speci ica ions and wha exac ly is measu ed, a highe unemploymen a e ei he is no connec ed o he le el o poli ical iolence o is connec ed o a lowe le el o iolence. By con as , using impu ed da a o Ca holic and P o es an unemploymen a es in No he n I eland, Honake (2010) inds ha he le el o iolence a ge - ing ci ilians ises as he unemploymen a e ises. S udying 24 de eloping coun ies, Azeng and Yogo (2013) epo ha highe you h unemploymen a es a e connec ed o highe likelihood o in e nal con lic . As a conclusion o he abo e-p esen ed and o he empi ical esea ch I ha e ead, he di e si y bo h in e- sul s and in me hods is conside able. Fu he , almos all s udies a e case s udies o one o a ew coun ies, o in some si ua ions collec ions o e iews o case s udies. O en he sample sizes a e ela i ely small. And in many cases, he indings p esen ed a e d awn om s udies which do no ocus on unemploymen . I ha e ound no sys ema ic global scale s udy abou he ela ionship be ween unemploymen and p o es ing no be- ween unemploymen and o ganised iolence –compa ed o, o example, a s udy by Buhaug, Cede man, and Gledi sch (2014) o ci il wa s, inequali ies, and e hnici y which co e ed all independen s a es o he wo ld and a imespan om 1960 o 2005. 2.2 Hypo heses All hypo heses will be s udied in he con ex o he A ab Sp ing and he A ab coun ies. 5 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER Hypo hesis 1. The unemployed a e mo e likely o p o es han he employed. Hypo hesis 2. The young unemployed a e mo e likely o p o es han he young employed. Hypo hesis 3. The educa ed unemployed a e mo e likely o p o es han he educa ed employed. As discussed abo e, ela i e dep i a ion heo y and he economic app oach bo h le us assume ha he un- employed a e mo e likely o p o es . Fo hypo hesis 2 which conce ns young people, he e a e bo h s a e le el and indi idual le el bases. The e is e idence ha coun ies expe iencing excep ionally la ge you h coho s, so-called “you h bulges,”ha e a highe isk o io s o iolen demons a ions, domes ic a med con lic and e o ism (U dal, 2006). A he indi idual le el, young age is a ac o inc easing signi ican ly he likelihood o ake pa in a p o es , bo h iolen and peace ul (Ho man & Jamal, 2012, p. 184; Oye usi, 2010, pp. 334, 337). A highe le el o educa ion p edic s a highe le el o pa icipa ion in a ious kinds o poli ical ac i i ies, anging om discussing poli ics o aking pa in demons a ions (Campan e & Cho , 2012, p. 168). In hypo he- sis 3, as in hypo hesis 2, we hus sea ch o a join e ec , his ime o unemploymen and educa ion. Following ela i e dep i a ion heo y, we also expec high pa icipa ion in insu gencies among he highly educa ed un- employed. Those who educa e hemsel es p obably ha e highe expec a ions o li e. When hese expec a ions a e no me and he educa ed emain unemployed, we can assume ha hey become dep i ed, us a ed and eage o ake o he s ee s. Hypo heses 2 and 3 also ha e g ounds ela ed o he pa icula case o he A ab Sp ing. I has been s a ed ha he young we e “a he o e on ”in he up isings (Bjo a n & Høigil , 2016) and ha i was especially you h unemploymen which spa ked he A ab Sp ing (Ho man & Jamal, 2012, p. 168; In e na ional Labou O ganiza- ion, 2011; Mi kin, 2013, p. 7). As no ed abo e, in addi ion o he you h, in many A ab coun ies unemploymen a ec ed especially he highly educa ed. Campan e and Cho (2012) sugges ed ha i was speci ically he com- bina ion o high unemploymen and an inc ease in educa ion which esul ed in he onse o he A ab Sp ing. Hypo hesis 4. The unemployed a e less sa is ied wi h hei li es han he employed. Hypo hesis 5. The unemployed a e less in e es ed in poli ics han he employed. Hypo hesis 6. People who a e less sa is ied wi h hei li es a e mo e likely o p o es . Hypo hesis 7. People who a e mo e in e es ed in poli ics a e mo e likely o p o es . Hypo heses 4–7 s udy mechanisms ha de e mine whe he he unemployed pa icipa e in he p o es s. Two ac o s a e s udied mo e closely, sa is ac ion wi h li e and in e es in poli ics. Sa is ac ion wi h li e is an essen ial heme in ela i e dep i a ion heo y. As discussed ea lie , being unemployed can educe people’s in e es in poli ics and poli ical ac i i y (Jahoda e  al., 1933/2002). On he o he hand, poli ical skills a e assumed o be a c i ical esou ce in he p ocess o mobilisa ion (Klande mans, 2011, pp. 45–46; Schlozman & Ve ba, 1979, pp. 12–20). The unemployed a e compa ed wi h he employed ins ead o compa ing he unemployed o all o he e- sponden s. This is done because we expec ha unemployed people would calm down i hey would ge jobs. O i seen om he pe spec i e o ela i e dep i a ion heo y, he unemployed eel dep i ed because hey compa e hemsel es wi h he employed. 3 Da a, me hods, and measu emen s Used da a se s a e he hi d wa e o he A ab Ba ome e ( e e ed o as ABIII) and he six h wa e o he Wo ld Values Su ey (WVS6). In o al ABIII has o e 14,000 esponden s om wel e di e en A ab coun ies. F om WVS6, eigh A ab coun ies and hei oughly 10,000 esponden s a e included. La e , when I e e o “all coun ies”o WVS6, his always s ands o all hese eigh analysed A ab coun ies o WVS6. Following he mos common de ini ion, I conside he membe s a es o he A ab League o be A ab coun ies. The da a se s ep- esen adul s 18 yea s old and olde in each coun y. Table 1 p esen s he coun ies included in he analyses and hose A ab coun ies o WVS6 which a e excluded because some ques ions we e no asked. The able also shows when he in e iews ha e been conduc ed in hese coun ies. The a icle mainly s udies all A ab coun ies in which he e is da a as one sample. To supplemen he pic u e o he mobilisa ion o he unemployed, hypo hesis 1 is also s udied in some indi idual coun ies and coun y g oups. The e could be coun y-speci ic di e ences in he pa icipa ion o he unemployed because, o exam- ple, labou unions play a ole in p o es mobilisa ion and hey ha e di e en ela ionships o he unemployed in di e en coun ies (Chabane & Faniel, 2011, pp. 398–404). I is also sugges ed ha in di e en A ab Sp ing 6 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Paasonen coun ies di e en socio-economic g oups mobilised he ebellions (Ande son, 2011, p. 2). Because he a i- cle has a special ocus on he A ab Sp ing, he indi idually s udied coun ies a e Egyp , Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. Acco ding o Allansson e  al. (2012), p. 46 hese coun ies we e ha des hi by he up isings oge he wi h Bah ain and Sy ia, om he wo las -men ioned coun ies he e is no da a. Table 1: Included and excluded coun ies in he analyses and ield pe iods in each coun y. ABIII da a WVS6 da a Alge ia Included 3/2013–4/2013 Included 1/2014–10/2014 Egyp Included 3/2013–4/2013 Excluded I aq Included 6/2013 Included 11/2013–12/2013 Jo dan Included 12/2012–1/2013 Included 2/2014–3/2014 Kuwai Included 2/2014–3/2014 Excluded Lebanon Included 6/2013 Included 11/2013 Libya Included 3/2013–4/2013 Included 1/2014–2/2014 Mo occo Included 4/2013–6/2013, 3/2014 Included 5/2011–6/2011 Pales ine Included 12/2012 Excluded Qa a No da a Excluded Sudan Included 4/2013–5/2013 No da a Tunisia Included 2/2013 Included 11/2013–12/2013 Yemen Included 11/2013–12/2013 Included 2/2014 Linea eg ession –and mo e p ecisely linea o dina y leas squa es eg ession –is used wi h hypo heses 4 and 5. In o he cases, bina y logis ic eg ession is applied. Some assump ions ela ed o he use o eg ession a e wo h discussing he e. The independence o obse a ions is an assump ion in all eg ession analysis. I should no cause conce n in his s udy as he obse a ions he e a e single esponden s in e iewed sepa a ely. A sou ce o deba e is he use o Like scale a iables in a linea eg ession model. In all my linea eg ession models he explained a iable is a Like scaled ques ion o a combina ion o wo Like scaled ques ions. Following Vehkalah i (2008, p. 37) and Newsom (2013, p. 2) I conside ha he use o Like scale a iables is jus i ied he e. Lumley, Dieh , Eme son, and Chen (2002) a gue ha i “is widely bu inco ec ly belie ed” ha linea e- g ession would be alid only wi h no mally dis ibu ed explained a iables. Some p e ious s udies ha e ound ha he no mali y condi ion loses i s signi icance wi h sample sizes o some 100 obse a ions, and Lumley e al. conclude ha 500 is enough e en wi h an ex emely non-no mal da a. He e all explained a iables o linea eg ession models a e no no mally dis ibu ed. Howe e , he sample sizes a e abo e 9,000, so his should no be a p oblem. To ackle he challenge o measu ing unemploymen in de eloping economies I will use h ee ways o op- e a ionalise unemploymen . Fi s , I will simply u ilise ques ions in which he esponden s hemsel es epo hei employmen s a us (q1005 and q1006 in ABIII, V229 in WVS6). The op ions gi en di e sligh ly be ween ABIII and WVS6, bu bo h su eys o e op ions o being “unemployed”and wo king “ ull- ime,”i.e. 30 hou s a week o mo e. Those esponden s who answe ha hey a e unemployed will ob iously o m he g oup unde sc u iny, he unemployed. In my analyses, hose who wo k ull- ime cons i u e he g oup o employed. Respon- den s can also ha e chosen o be pa - ime employed, sel -employed, e i ed, housewi e, and s uden . All hese esponden s who a e nei he ull- ime wo ke s no unemployed will be g ouped as ha ing o he employmen s a us. Pa - ime wo ke s a e classi ied as ha ing o he employmen s a us because i is unknown whe he hey wo k one hou o 29 hou s a week. Ca ego ising hem as employed o unemployed would, ei he way, dis u b he analysis. This di ision o esponden s in o h ee g oups is coded by wo sepa a e bina y a iables. In he “Employed” a iable he employed a e coded as 1 and all he es o he esponden s as 0. In he “O he s” a iable esponden s wi h o he employmen s a us a e coded as 1 and unemployed and employed esponden s as 0. Because he unemployed a e coded as 0 in bo h a iables, hey o m he e e ence ca ego y. Consequen ly, he “Employed” a iable will enable us o compa e he employed wi h he unemployed (Long, Long, & F eese, 2006, pp. 417–418). We a e no in e es ed in compa ing he unemployed and he “O he s”g oup because he “O he s”g oup is so he e ogeneous. I would ha e been possible o exclude esponden s wi h any o he em- ploymen s a us han employed o unemployed bu including “O he s”inc eases he sample size. Bigge sam- ple size in u n means ha he con ol a iables a e be e adjus ed. As a gued ea lie , he na u e o labou ma ke s in he A ab wo ld challenges he de ini ion o being unem- ployed. Robbins, p ojec di ec o o he A ab Ba ome e , assumes ha some esponden s who a e no cu en ly wo king migh s ill ha e answe ed ha hey wo k when hey mean ha hey wo k in gene al. This can pa icu- la ly be he case wi h hose wo king in he in o mal sec o (Robbins, 2014). Thus, he e can be some bias in his 7 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER measu e o unemploymen as he esponses o his ques ion may no ully e lec he o mal de ini ion o un- employmen . To handle hese issues, I also use income as a p oxy o employmen . Since mos people a guably ge mos o hei money om wo k i is easonable o assume ha people who a e mos ly unemployed ha e a low income. I use wo ways o measu e income which I call absolu e income and ela i e income. These a e he wo o he ope a ionalisa ions o unemploymen . In WVS6, esponden s a e asked ( 239) o speci y hemsel es in which o he en shown income g oup hey belong. In ABIII I ha e calcula ed he income g oups mysel based on he mon hly income o he esponden s (q1014). I ha e di ided all esponden s in each coun y in o en g oups so ha he g oups a e as equal in size as possible. The esponden s o bo h ABIII and WVS6 a e coded so ha hose in g oup 1 ha e he lowes income and hose in g oup 10 he highes income wi hin a coun y. Fo a ious easons, hese ques ions abou absolu e income do no necessa ily ell whe he he esponden s’income co e s hei needs; o example, he e a e di e ences in p ice le els wi hin coun ies. In ABIII he ela i e income is based on ques ion (q1016) whe e esponden s a e asked abou he su iciency o hei household income. Those acing signi ican di icul ies in mee ing hei needs a e coded as 1 and a he opposi e end esponden s able o sa e as 4. In WVS6 he e is no ques ion o measu e ela i e income. In analyses o ela i e and absolu e income only hose esponden s a e included who ha e o he employmen s a us ques ion answe ed ha hey a e unemployed, pa - ime employed, ull- ime employed, o sel -employed. In ABIII, esponden s a e asked (q800a) whe he hey in 2011 and 2012 had pa icipa ed in demons a ions and allies o which he A ab Sp ing led. Following om his wo ding in ABIII he a icle concen a es in he A ab Sp ing ela ed p o es s in yea s 2011 and 2012. WVS6 p o ides in o ma ion on whe he esponden s ha e du ing he las yea a ended peace ul demons a ions ( 87 and 92). This is coded as a bina y a iable whe e 1 is o esponden s who did p o es du ing he las yea and 0 o hose who did no . The bes ques ion o measu e sa is ac ion in li e in ABIII is (q102a) “Gene ally speaking, how would you compa e you li ing condi ions wi h he es o you ellow ci izens?”The i e op ions gi en a e coded om 1, “much wo se,” o 5, “much be e .”WVS6, ins ead, p o ides ques ion ( 23) asking “All hings conside ed, how sa is ied a e you wi h you li e as a whole hese days?.”The scale o answe s anges om 1, “comple ely dissa is ied,” o 10, “comple ely sa is ied.”The ela i e dep i a ion heo y assumes ha people who eel de- p i ed a e compa ing hemsel es o some o he people a e dissa is ied and s a ebelling. Thus, ques ions bo h om ABIII and WVS6 measu e whe he he esponden is ela i ely dep i ed in he sense o he heo y. The e a e wo ou -s ep ques ions bo h in ABIII (q404 and q405) and in WVS6 ( 7 and 84) whe e espon- den s a e hei in e es in poli ics. Fo bo h da a se s, I ha e calcula ed he a e age o he wo i ems. The scale goes om 1.0 o 4.0: he mo e in e es in poli ics he esponden has, he highe he alue. The con ol a iables in each model a e age, educa ion le el, gende , coun y o esidence, and whe he he esponden li es in an u ban o u al a ea. Fo bina y logis ic eg ession, educa ion (ques ion q1003 in ABIII, 248 in WVS6) is coded on a ou -s ep scale whe e 1 implies he lowes educa ional le el and 4 he highes . The “Age” a iable equals simply he age o he esponden in yea s. Gende is coded as 1 o males and 0 o emales. In mos coun ies o ABIII, he esponden s a e coded as u ban, 1, o u al, 0, based on ques ion (q13) which speci ically asks his. Fo esponden s om Kuwai his in o ma ion is no a ailable bu 100.0% o Kuwai is li e in u ban a eas (Wo ld Bank, 2019), so I ha e coded all Kuwai i esponden s as u ban. In Pales ine “ e ugee camp”is a ailable as a hi d op ion, Pales inians li ing in e ugee camps a e excluded om analyses. In WVS6 esponden s li ing in owns wi h a popula ion g ea e han 10,000 a e conside ed u ban and esponden s li ing in owns smalle han ha , u al ( 253). Coun y is used as a con ol a iable when mo e han one coun y is included in he sample. The e is a sepa a e bina y a iable o each coun y excep o he coun y se ing as e e ence ca ego y. E en hough hese bina y coun y a iables a e no epo ed in he ables, he coun y a iables a e included in all analyses ha s udy mo e han one coun y. In hypo heses 4 and 5 he esul s a e con olled o ma i al s a us (q1010, 57), hose ma ied a e coded as 1 and all o he s as 0. Desc ip i e s a is cs, equency ables and co ela ion ma ices o he s udied a iables can be ound asappendices. When esponden s a e asked abou p o es ing and in e es s in poli ics, hey migh y o a oid answe ing o answe dishones ly. This is a possible sou ce o e o . ABIII includes ques ion (q513) asking how sa is ied esponden s a e wi h hei go e nmen . I esponden s would ha e been a aid o consequences, one could expec good g ades o go e nmen s in his ques ion. Howe e , on a scale om 0 o 10, he mos common answe has been ze o: he esponden is absolu ely unsa is ied wi h he go e nmen . Abou hal , 52.1%, o he esponden s ha e e alua ed hei sa is ac ion o be lowe han i e, which is he median, and 29.1% ha e conside ed hemsel es mo e sa is ied han i e. In addi ion, in his ques ion he sha e o missing answe s, 3.6%, is ela i ely low and close o he sha e o missing answe s o example in ques ion (q701a) conce ning ade wi h o he coun ies, he e 4.0% ha e ailed o answe . The ques ion abou o eign ade could ha e had less missing answe s i many esponden s had e used o answe in ea o s a e su eillance. These igu es do no suppo 8 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Paasonen suspicions o unwillingness o answe u h ully in ea o consequences. Las , he e is no appa en eason why his po en ial sou ce o e o would a ec he unemployed and he employed di e en ly. 4 Resul s Figu e 3 shows ha , maybe no su p isingly, s uden s we e mos ac i e in he A ab Sp ing up isings, he e i ed and he housewi es he mos passi e. The e o e, i appea s ha employmen s a us is linked o he likelihood o p o es pa icipa ion. Howe e , he di e ence be ween he unemployed and he employed seems ma ginal. Figu e 3: P o es pa icipa ion by employmen s a us. Table 2: Bina y logis ic eg ession, hypo hesis 1: p o es pa icipa ion o he unemployed.a Explained a iable P o es ing P o es ing P o es ing P o es ing P o es ing Da a se ABIII WVS6 ABIII WVS6 ABIII Sample All coun ies All coun ies All coun ies All coun ies All coun ies U ban esidence 0.231*** 0.237*** 0.185* 0.254*** 0.222*** (0.063) (0.070) (0.087) (0.085) (0.076) Male 0.883*** 0.872*** 0.628*** 0.648*** 0.719*** (0.059) (0.066) (0.094) (0.089) (0.079) Age –0.015*** –0.008*** –0.012*** –0.009** –0.013*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.004) (0.003) (0.003) High educa ion 0.315*** 0.337*** 0.309*** 0.278*** 0.266*** (0.029) (0.037) (0.040) (0.046) (0.035) Employmen s a us (unemployed as e e ence ca ego y) Employed –0.062 –0.179 (0.089) (0.112) O he s –0.283*** –0.389*** (0.084) (0.103) High income (absolu e) 0.015 0.034 (0.014) (0.019) High income ( ela i e) 0.018 (0.036) Cons an –0.830*** –2.332*** –0.858*** –2.081*** –0.782*** (0.139) (0.191) (0.204) (0.234) (0.190) N 14,173 9,331 6,011 5,149 7,844 R20.136 0.099 0.141 0.078 0.134 aIn Table 2, as in each able epo ing esul s o bina y logis ic eg ession, he Cox and Snell 2is epo ed. Models con olled o coun y (no epo ed). *p< 0.05, **p< 0.01, ***p< 0.005. S anda d e o s in pa en heses. 9 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER analyses which sugges ha p og ammes aiming a os e ing peace solely h ough c ea ing jobs a e likely o miss hei a ge . Acknowledgemen s I wish o hank Hal a d Buhaug, Ma kku Löy önen, Ma ia Mek i, Hen ik U dal, and a ious semina audiences o help ul ad ices and commen s in di e en phases o he wo k. I am g a e ul o he Edi o in Chie Raul Ca uso and he anonymous e iewe o ho ough and aluable eedback. Funding The a icle has been inalised du ing my wo k in he p ojec Wha wo ks? You h ansi ions om educa- ion o employmen in he Middle Eas and No h A ica unded by he Academy o Finland, Funde Id: h p://dx.doi.o g/10.13039/501100002341, decision no 320449. Appendix A Table 7: Desc ip i e s a is ics o ABIII. N Minimum Maximum Mean S d. De ia ion Employmen s a us: unemployed† (unemployed = 1; Employed = 0) 6,286 0 1 0.28 0.449 Employmen s a us: employed (employed = 1; unemployed & o he s = 0) 14,729 0 1 0.31 0.461 Employmen s a us: o he s (o he s = 1; employed & unemployed = 0) 14,729 0 1 0.57 0.495 High income (absolu e) 9,974 1 10 5.01 3.083 High income ( ela i e) 14,417 1 4 2.27 0.948 U ban esidence 14,648 0 1 0.67 0.470 Male 14,809 0 1 0.50 0.500 Age 14,799 18 89 37.80 13.886 High educa ion 14,775 1 4 2.63 1.042 Ma ied 14,795 0 1 0.64 0.481 P o es pa icipa ion 14,427 0 1 0.14 0.345 Sa is ied wi h li e 14,649 1 5 2.96 0.805 In e es in poli ics 14,662 1.0 4.0 2.42 0.921 †This a iable has no been used in he eg ession analyses epo ed in he a icle, i is he e o illus a e co ela ions be ween unemploymen and o he a iables. O he esponden s han he unemployed and he employed a e excluded in his a iable. Table 8: Desc ip i e s a is ics o WVS6. N Minimum Maximum Mean S d. De ia ion Employmen s a us: unemployed† (unemployed = 1; employed = 0) 3,172 0 1 0.28 0.447 Employmen s a us: employed (employed = 1; unemployed & o he s = 0) 10,307 0 1 0.22 0.416 Employmen s a us: o he s (o he s = 1; employed & unemployed = 0) 10,307 0 1 0.69 0.462 High income (absolu e) 10,021 1 10 4.89 2.150 U ban esidence 10,101 0 1 0.57 0.496 Male 10,336 0 1 0.51 0.500 Age 10,336 18 90 37.93 14.439 High educa ion 10,296 1 4 2.62 1.033 Ma ied 10,334 0 1 0.60 0.491 16 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Paasonen P o es pa icipa ion 9,595 0 1 0.15 0.359 Sa is ied wi h li e 10,218 1 10 6.35 2.481 In e es in poli ics 9,796 1.0 4.0 2.31 0.948 †This a iable has no been used in he eg ession analyses epo ed in he a icle, i is he e o illus a e co ela ions be ween unemploymen and o he a iables. O he esponden s han he unemployed and he employed a e excluded in his a iable. 17 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER Figu e 5: F equency ables o he main a iables. Appendix B 18 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d DE GRUYTER Paasonen Table 9: Co ela ion ma ix o ABIII a iables.Pea son’s . Employmen s a us: Unemployed† (Unem- ployed = 1; Employed = 0) Employmen s a us: Employed (Employed = 1; Unemployed & O he s = 0) Employmen s a us: O he s (O he s = 1; Employed & Unemployed = 0) High income (absolu e) High income ( ela- i e) U ban esi- dence Male Age High ed- uca ion Ma ied P o es pa ici- pa ion Sa is ied wi h li e High income (absolu e) –0.386*** 0.366*** –0.270*** 4,718 9,930 9,930 High income ( ela i e) –0.232*** 0.133*** –0.047*** 0.273*** 6,132 14,349 14,349 9,829 U ban esidence –0.106*** 0.081*** –0.049*** 0.063*** 0.119*** 6,220 14,571 14,571 9,818 14,256 Male –0.122*** 0.311*** –0.342*** 0.305*** 0.041*** 0.001 6,286 14,729 14,729 9,974 14,417 14,648 Age –0.275*** 0.018* 0.103*** 0.106*** –0.051*** 0.037*** 0.026*** 6,282 14,723 14,723 9,969 14,411 14,640 14,799 High educa ion –0.281*** 0.253*** –0.176*** 0.215*** 0.231*** 0.170*** 0.109*** –0.234*** 6,275 14,705 14,705 9,962 14,391 14,614 14,775 14,769 Ma ied –0.38*** 0.115*** 0.059*** 0.159*** –0.002  –0.003  –0.026*** 0.428*** –0.045*** 6,284 14,724 14,724 9,970 14,412 14,634 14,795 14,789 14,769 P o es pa icipa ion 0.014 0.043*** –0.063*** 0.073*** 0.062*** –0.017* 0.150*** –0.087*** 0.119*** –0.056*** 6,129 14,358 14,358 9,752 14,071 14,267 14,427 14,421 14,402 14,421 Sa is ied wi h li e –0.140*** 0.079*** –0.027*** 0.136*** 0.272*** 0.070*** –0.007  –0.042*** 0.144*** 0.012 0.016 6,223 14,570 14,570 9,881 14,271 14,488 14,649 14,639 14,615 14,635 14,274 In e es in poli ics –0.155*** 0.172*** –0.140*** 0.164*** 0.106*** 0.073*** 0.158*** 0.096*** 0.241*** 0.105*** 0.161*** 0.081*** 6,236 14,588 14,588 9,887 14,285 14,501 14,662 14,654 14,633 14,653 14,305 14,505 Uppe lines: Pea son’s ; lowe lines: N. *p< 0.05, **p< 0.01, ***p< 0.005. †This a iable has no been used in he eg ession analyses epo ed in he a icle, i is he e o illus a e co ela ions be ween unemploymen and o he a iables. O he esponden s han he unemployed and he employed a e excluded in his a iable. 19 Au oma ically gene a ed ough PDF by P oo Check om Ri e Valley Technologies L d Paasonen DE GRUYTER Table 10: Co ela ion ma ix o WVS6 a iables. Pea son’s . Employmen s a us: unemployed† (unem- ployed = 1; employed = 0) Employmen s a us: Employed (Employed = 1; Unem- ployed & O he s = 0) Employmen s a us: o he s (o he s = 1; employed & unem- ployed = 0) High income (absolu e) U ban esidence Male Age High educa ion Ma ied P o es pa - icipa ion Sa is ied wi h li e High income (absolu e) –0.230*** 0.072*** 0.002 3,100 9,999 9,999 U ban esidence –0.128*** 0.056*** –0.018 0.076*** 3096 10,072 10,072 9789 Male –0.049** 0.206*** –0.237*** –0.031*** –0.009 3,172 10,307 10,307 10,021 10,101 Age –0.211*** –0.036*** 0.112*** –0.075*** 0.019 –0.007 3,172 10,307 10,307 10,021 10,101 10,336 High educa ion –0.165*** 0.211*** –0.201*** 0.321*** 0.065*** 0.111*** –0.339*** 3,164 10,275 10,275 9,989 10,068 10,296 10,296 Ma ied –0.250*** 0.047*** 0.045*** –0.051*** –0.052*** –0.029*** 0.429*** –0.175*** 3,172 10,305 10,305 10,019 10,099 10,334 10,334 10,294 P o es pa - icipa ion 0.003 0.079*** –0.099*** 0.052*** 0.034*** 0.156*** –0.075*** 0.154*** –0.059*** 2,990 9,567 9,567 9,322 9,376 9,595 9,595 9,567 9,593 Sa is ied wi h li e –0.177*** 0.014 0.055*** 0.297*** 0.037*** –0.059*** –0.023* 0.133*** 0.034*** 0.028** 3134 10,190 10,190 9927 9984 10,218 10,218 10,179 10,216 9515 0.085*** In e es in poli ics –0.067*** 0.061*** –0.047*** 0.116*** –0.034*** 0.083*** 0.060*** 0.200*** 0.063*** 0.166*** 3,037 9,769 9,769 9,542 9,571 9,796 9,796 9,765 9,794 9,213 9,710 Uppe lines: Pea son’s ; lowe lines: N. *p< 0.05, **p< 0.01, ***p< 0.005. †This a iable has no been used in he eg ession analyses epo ed in he a icle, i is he e o illus a e co ela ions be ween unemploymen and o he a iables. 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