Russian nuclear energy diplomacy in Finland and Hungary

Full Te ms & Condi ions o access and use can be ound a h p://www. and online.com/ac ion/jou nalIn o ma ion?jou nalCode= ege20 Eu asian Geog aphy and Economics ISSN: 1538-7216 (P in ) 1938-2863 (Online) Jou nal homepage: h p://www. and online.com/loi/ ege20 Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy in Finland and Hunga y Pami Aal o, Heino Nyyssönen, Ma i Kojo & Palla i Pal To ci e his a icle: Pami Aal o, Heino Nyyssönen, Ma i Kojo & Palla i Pal (2017) Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy in Finland and Hunga y, Eu asian Geog aphy and Economics, 58:4, 386-417, DOI: 10.1080/15387216.2017.1396905 To link o his a icle: h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/15387216.2017.1396905 © 2017 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup Published online: 05 No 2017. Submi you a icle o his jou nal A icle iews: 557 View ela ed a icles View C ossma k da a Eu asian GEoG aphy and Economics, 2017 VoL. 58, no. 4, 386–417 h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/15387216.2017.1396905 Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy in Finland and Hunga y PamiAal oa, HeinoNyyssönenb, Ma iKojoa and Palla iPala aFacul y o managemen /poli ics, uni e si y o Tampe e, Tampe e, Finland; bFacul y o social sciences/ poli ical science, uni e si y o Tu ku, Finland ABSTRACT We compa e Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy owa ds Finland and Hunga y, whe e he Russian s a e co po a ion Rosa om in ends o build nuclea powe plan s by he 2020s. Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy ea u es Rosa om wo king wi h o he s a e ins i u ions, i s own subsidia ies and an ex ensi e ne wo k o companies and R&D ac o s o suppo Russian nuclea powe p ojec s ab oad. Using he s uc u a ion app oach, we ind h ee in e es s d i ing such diplomacy: ene gy business and associa ed p o i s; mode niza ion o he Russian economy, including he di e si ica ion o i s expo s uc u e; while o eign policy in e es s a e also in ol ed, conside ing he cons ain s eme ging in EU-Russia ene gy diplomacy in he oil and gas sec o s, including he sanc ions since 2014. Some domes ic ac o s in Finland and Hunga y make he linkage be ween nuclea ene gy and o eign policy as explici as do some wes e n commen a o s. Seeking o pu sue hese in e es s, Russian ac o s mus accommoda e hei conside able asse s o he s uc u al cons ain s hey encoun e in he a ge coun ies. We iden i y ou s uc u al dimensions The Russian ac o s a e well endowed as ega ds he esou ces, echnology, and in as uc u e dimension; and he dimension o inance, business models, and ma ke s. Howe e , on he ins i u ional dimension hey ace a less con ollable en i onmen . Rega ding he ecological dimension, hey mus con o m o local sa e y equi emen s. In bo h cases, Russian ac o s we e able o s eng hen pe cep ions o join in e es s wi h ac o s in he a ge coun y acili a ing he nuclea powe plan p ojec s, he eby pa ing he way o he use o so powe . In oduc ion The ene gy diplomacy pu sued by Russian poli ical and business ac o s h oughou Eu asia and beyond is a equen ly examined subjec . Exis ing esea ch ocuses on nego ia ions on he de elopmen o new ields, pipelines and e minals, supply © 2017 The au ho (s). published by in o ma uK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup. This is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he c ea i e commons a ibu ion-noncomme cial-node i a i es License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which pe mi s non-comme cial e-use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed, and is no al e ed, ans o med, o buil upon in any way. ARTICLE HISTORY ecei ed 14 augus 2017 accep ed23 oc obe 2017 KEYWORDS ussia; Finland; hunga y; diplomacy; nuclea ene gy; s uc u a ion CONTACT pami aal o [email p o ec ed] OPEN ACCESS EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 387 con ac s, and deli e y p ices o Russian oil and na u al gas (e.g. Shad ina 2014) and on ins i u ions, ag eemen s, and dispu es be ween Russia and i s cus ome coun ies (Belyi 2015; Romano a 2016). Fu he s udies analyze how he ma ke en y o shale oil and gas om Uni ed S a es ields has in ensi ied he compe i ion o Russian expo e s (K opa che a 2014). Howe e , he poli ical and economic sanc ions imposed by he EU and se e al o he s a es in Eu ope, Ame ica, and Asia since Russia’s annexa ion o he C imea om Uk aine in 2014 hampe he ene gy diplomacy o Russian ac o s (Aal o and Fo sbe g 2016). This “ha d powe ” ace o Russian o eign policy uels dis us , ein o cing he ealis -geopoli ical eading o ene gy issues being insepa able om Russian o eign policy (Dann eu he 2016; Had ield 2016). I is he e ha nuclea ene gy diplomacy eme ges as a mo e “so powe ” ace o Russian ac ions, esul ing in comme cially a ac i e ag eemen s on he deli e y o nuclea powe plan s (NPPs). Russian ene gy diplomacy in he nuclea powe sec o has been li le examined, al hough nine een coun ies in Asia, Eu ope, and A ica ha e ecen ly signed ag ee- men s wi h Russian pa ies on he cons uc ion o NPPs o supply o nuclea uel, o ha e such coope a ion ongoing. Cu en ly o e one-qua e o globally ongoing ci ilian nuclea powe p ojec s makes Russia and i s s a e co po a ion Rosa om – wi h o e 350 subsidia y companies – he la ges p o ide in his s a egic ma ke . In 2013 Rosa om had con ac s wo h US$66.5 billion in his oughly US$500 billion ma ke and in ended o iple i s sales by 2030 (Da id 2014). In 2016 i s con ac po olio eached US$100 billion (De Cle cq, Bu mis o a, and S ubbs 2016). Such olumes o ade equi e p oac i e diplomacy mobilizing he s a e and a ne wo k o ac o s o suppo he ope a ions o Rosa om ab oad. Some wes e n obse e s no e ha his may inc ease Russian in luence and al e he in e na ional balance o powe (Da id 2014; A ms ong 2015; De Cle cq, Bu mis o a, and S ubbs 2016). Since he la e 2000s Russian o eign policy and ene gy diplomacy ha e indeed become mo e asse i e, no ably owa d he o me So ie Union a ea (Casie 2016). Howe e , in he key EU ma ke s, Russia combines “geopoli ical” app oaches o he conduc o diplomacy wi h legalis ic and echnoc a ic ones (Romano a 2016). These nuances a e some imes los in he EU ene gy deba e, whe e pe cep ions o dependence on Russian ene gy supplies ha e become mo e ala mis owing o p ice peaks and discussion being shaped by some Cen al and Eas e n Eu opean (CEE) Membe S a es wi h oubled his o ical legacies is-à- is Russia (Casie 2016). Fo example, se e al CEE s a es, in pa icula he Bal ic s a es and Poland, ha e c i icized he planned No d S eam-2 na u al gas pipeline om Russia o Ge many h ough he Bal ic Sea, d awing suppo om Denma k. The Eu opean Commission, also c i ical o he p ojec , in June 2017 eques ed a manda e o nego ia e on he ma e on behal o he Membe S a es. In his a icle we pu sue a balanced analysis ee om any ala mism. To pa se ou he a ious aspec s ha can be ela ed o Russia’s NPP expo s, we i s sys- ema ically examine he in e es s d i ing Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy and hen he s uc u es wi hin which Russian ac o s seek o p omo e hose in e es s 388 P. AALTO ET AL. in he a ge coun ies. Ou scope is limi ed o ci il nuclea ene gy. Al hough mos o Rosa om’s in e na ional p ojec s a e in Asia, we ocus on wo cases in he EU; namely, Finland and Hunga y. This ocus is ele an o se e al easons. Fi s , we co e Rosa om’s wo majo NPP supply ag eemen s in he EU – one in an “old” EU Membe S a e (Finland) and he o he mo e ecen ly acceded (Hunga y).1 Finland and Hunga y con ac ed new NPPs om Rosa om in 2013 and 2014 espec i ely, bo h scheduled o s a ope a ion in he 2020s. Second, he wo coun ies ha e ex ensi e ene gy ade wi h Russia and So ie -supplied NPPs. Thi d, nuclea powe is c ucial o bo h, accoun ing in 2014 o 35% o domes ically p oduced elec ici y in Finland and o 53% in Hunga y (Wo ld Nuclea Associa ion [WNA] 2016). Fou h, he con ac s no only p o ide a key EU-a ea e e ence o Rosa om’s in e na ional ac i i ies bu also ep esen a diploma ic iumph o Russia. The diploma ic gains a e signi ican in iew o he EU’s sanc ions agains selec ed Russian ac o s in which Finland and Hunga y also pa icipa e. 2 In he case o Finland, he con ac also goes agains he ide in he wide geos a egic con ex , whe e he coun y is in ensi ying i s coope a ion wi h he NATO mili a y alliance and whe e he Russian pa ies eac nega i ely o he e-ac i a ed deba e on possible u u e NATO membe ship, in iew o he wo coun ies sha ing a bo de .3 Fi h, Finland and Hunga y a e in e - es ing inasmuch as hey a e legally bound by he EU compe i ion ules go e ning ene gy p ojec s and poli ically commi ed o he a ge o he Ene gy Union o educing dependencies on la ge ex e nal supplie s (Eu opean Commission 2015a). As such, hey a e pa o an in eg a ing ene gy ma ke p omo ing libe aliza ion o enhance compe i ion, whe eas Russia e ains con ol o e mos o he ene gy sec o (Dann eu he 2016), wi h some compe i ion in he elec ici y ma ke (Aal o e al. 2012). In sho , he Finnish and Hunga ian cases ypi y he mix u e o his o ically de el- oped bila e al ene gy coope a ion and con empo a y mul ila e al s uc u es o EU-Russia ene gy ela ions wi h moun ing ensions and he wo pa ies on di - e en ma ke de elopmen ajec o ies. We he eby ask (1) which in e es s d i e Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy in he cases o Finland and Hunga y, and (2) o wha ex en can Russian ac o s ealize hei in e es s in hese wo cases. Ou compa ison seeks o assess he balance be ween he asse s Russian ac o s possess and he s uc u al cons ain s hey encoun e in he pu sui o hei in e es s. We aim he eby o p o ide a i me basis o u he esea ch and deba e on Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy. Alongside case-speci ic ea u es, we will also add ess EU-le el legal obliga ions and commi men s. Ou main ocus will be on he con- duc and oom o maneu e o Russian ac o s a he han on he policies o he EU, Finland, o Hunga y pe se. In he second sec ion o his a icle we su ey he exis ing esea ch. In he hi d sec ion, we discuss ou me hodological solu ions, including ou concep ualiza ion o Russian ac o s, hei in e es s, and he s uc u es encoun e ed in ope a ions ab oad. In he ou h and i h sec ions we examine he conduc o Russian ac o s be o e p esen ing ou conclusions. EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 389 Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy: Wha do we know? Exis ing esea ch is sca ce and does no add ess wha nuclea ene gy diplomacy migh mean on he concep ual plane o speci ically in he Russian con ex . In a a e sys ema ic s udy, S ulbe g (2007) ound ha he p edecesso o Rosa om, he Fede al Agency on A omic Ene gy, succeeded in p omo ing nuclea ene gy ag ee- men s wi h Ky gyzs an and Kazakhs an by widening he ange o choices o he a ge coun ies. To his end, i o e ed join en u es, asse swaps, and ex ension o ade ela ions o o he segmen s and p oduc s. E en hough o eign policy in e es s we e in ol ed, Russian ac o s made s a egic comp omises when equi ed o pu sue business in e es s. Ku o (2010) si ua es Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy in he con ex o global compe i ion o oil and gas due o he high p ices o he mid-2000s ha ampli ied he po en ial o nuclea ene gy. He also men ions how he Russian ac i i ies in cons uc ing he Busheh NPP in I an led o con o e sies wi h he US and NATO (Ku o 2010). In his con ex , Rosa om’s con ac o an NPP in Akkuyu, Tu key, in May 2010 was signi ican gi en ha Tu key is a NATO membe wi h special ies o he Uni ed S a es and suppo ed he bid by Russia o become a “global leade in nuclea powe plan cons uc ion” (So niko 2010). Low y (2016) no es how ci il nuclea powe echnology is indeed one o he s a egic high echnology indus ies suppo ed by he Russian s a e as pa o a de elopmen al agenda. A he same ime, Oxens ie na (2014) implies ha he Russian business and de elopmen al in e es s p esuppose assuming a s ong ole in in e na ional coope a ion on nuclea sa e y and secu i y issues, especially in he a e ma h o he Fukushima nuclea disas e o 2011. The e a e no sys ema ic s udies on Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy owa ds he EU, Finland, o Hunga y. Ye we know ha in he Finnish domes ic deba e, he p o-nuclea lobby amed he 2013 con ac wi h Rosa om in e ms o he deca - boniza ion p ospec s o nuclea powe . The Finnish ac o s mo eo e exp essed an in e es in secu i y o supply by s essing how building a mode n plan would educe he need o buy elec ici y om Russia (Sy jämäki, Kojo, and Li manen 2015; Ylönen e al. 2015). Me hodological solu ions: How o app oach Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy Ou main me hodological solu ion is o apply he s uc u a ion app oach, caus- ing us on he one hand o s udy he in e ac ion among Russian ac o s and hei in e es s, and on he o he , he s uc u es shaping hei ope a ions ab oad. The cons aining and enabling quali ies o hese s uc u es a e modeled in e ms o policy en i onmen s wi h ou analy ically dis inguishable dimensions (Aal o e al. 2012). 390 P. AALTO ET AL. Ac o s Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy is a coo dina ion exe cise in ol ing se e al ac o s. The s a e is he o mal leade : he P esiden , his adminis a ion, and he ele an minis ies, and agencies. In p ac ice, Rosa om is he mos engaged Russian ac o . I is a s a egic, e ically in eg a ed, and ully s a e-owned en e p ise wi h wide- anging esponsibili ies and se e al subsidia ies. Rosa om explo es u anium deposi s, p oduces nuclea uel commodi ies by means o con e sion and en ichmen , designs eac o s and powe plan s, and o e s o he echnological solu ions, also ope a ing he plan s. In 2015 Rosa om p o ided o 18.6% o Russia’s elec ici y supply, aiming a 25–30% by 2030 and 45–50% by 2050 (WNA 2015). Nuclea sa e y, s o age, and he managemen o spen nuclea uel and adioac i e was e a e also among Rosa om’s unc ions. Rosa om no only seeks global echnological leade ship (Rosa om 2015a) bu also pa icipa es in in e na ional coope a ion ega ding he peace ul uses o a omic ene gy and he nuclea non-p oli e a ion egime. Rosa om coo dina es a la ge ne wo k o enginee ing, in as uc u e, and con- s uc ion companies, as well as scien i ic and R&D ac o s, many o which ecei e s a e unding. In hese ne wo ks, indi iduals can ci cula e om one company o ano he o be ween companies and s a e ins i u ions (Tikkala 2016). Rosa om mo eo e ope a es echnology pa ks and inances inno a ions. I s eligibili y o ecei e inancing om he s a e is a c ucial asse in his capi al-in ensi e high echnology business (Low y 2016). In e es s A balanced assessmen o hese ac o s’ combined ac ions equi es us o examine wha hey a e a e . We iden i y h ee main in e es s o he s a e, Rosa om, and i s ne wo ks d i ing hei in e ac ion wi h Finnish and Hunga ian ac o s. Fi s , he Russian ac o s sha e an in e es in ene gy business and p o i s. This in e es pe ains o he in e na ional nuclea ene gy ma ke ha he US Depa men o Comme ce expec s o g ow om US$500 billion o US$740 billion o e he nex decade. The p o i s no only d i e he managemen o he compa- nies in ol ed, bu also suppo he iscal in e es s o bo h he Russian Fede a ion and he egions h ough he nume ous Rosa om subsidia ies (see Table 1). The Russian go e nmen ’s 2008 Concep o Long-Te m Socio-Economic De elopmen un il 2020 names high echnology indus ies as a majo d i e o u u e economic g ow h. Howe e , high echnology so a accoun s o only 3% o GDP, including he nuclea ene gy sec o . Ye he po en ial is conside able since Russia has econ- omies o scale in his a ea and he lowes cos s in he wo ld o u anium en ich- men (Low y 2016). The na ional p og am “De elopmen o he Nuclea Powe and Indus y Complex” a ge s a 53% g ow h in o e seas e enues by 2020 and a 14.9% g ow h in he indus y’s con ibu ion o he olume o GDP (Go e nmen o EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 391 he Russian Fede a ion 2014). The ene gy business is also a signi ican employe . I we assume ha each US$1 billion in expo s leads o some 5000 domes ic manu- ac u ing jobs (Da id 2014) and ha Rosa om’s expo s will iple om 2013 as he Table 1.main subsidia ies o osa om in he Finnish and hunga ian cases. aThe s . pe e sbu g di ision o a omene gop oek oge he wi h VnipiET Lead ins i u e became pa s o a omp o- ek . This subsidia y handles bo h he hanhiki i-1 and paks-2 eac o cons uc ion con ac s (a omp oek 2014). bThe nizhny no go od design ins i u e me ged in 2012 wi h a oms oyexpo (asE) in o de o bols e asE’s engi- nee ing capabili y and enhance he compe i i e capaci ies o bo h companies. F om 2014 i became he pa - en company o a omene gop oek (aEp). The easoning behind his me ge was o consolida e ussia’s nuclea powe enginee ing expe ise in o a single di ision. aEp has h ee di isions: in moscow, in sain pe e sbu g, and in nizhny no go od. The nizhny no go od di ision and he moscow di ision o aEp a e unde he execu i e con ol o he niaEp-asE (Wnn 2014). Subsidia ies Role Jsc a omene gop om (Jsc aEp) The osa om subsidia y holding company o ci il nuclea ene gy ha includes powe plan ope a o osene goa om; nuclea uel p oduce and supplie TVEL; u anium ade Tenex; equipmen supplie a omene gomash; and o e seas nuclea builde a oms oyexpo osene goa om conce n oJsc a osa om and a omene gop om subsidia y espon- sible o ope a ing he npps and selling he powe gene a ed TVEL Fuel company a osa om and a omene gop om subsidia y esponsible o nuclea uel assemblies, p oduc ion, and supply o nuclea uel o ussian npps and ab oad. in 2013 TVEL along wi h osa om d a ed he nuclea supply ag eemen s wi h Finnish and hunga ian ac o s TEnEX (Techsnabexpo ) a osa om and a omene gop om subsidia y espon- sible o u anium con e sion o en ichmen se ices and o expo ing nuclea uel Jsc conce n Ti an-2 an enginee ing company esponsible o si e p epa- a ion, cons uc ion, and ins alla ion wo k, as well as de elopmen o design and supply o all he equi ed ma e ial and equipmen a omene gomash G oup (aEm G oup) a osa om, a omene gop om, and TVEL subsidia y esponsible o equipmen design, p oduc ion, deli e y, ins alla ion, and main enance o nuclea as well as con en ional powe plan s Jsc a omp oek aan enginee ing company designing npps and p o id- ing hem wi h mode n compu e -based ins umen- a ion and con ol sys ems Jsc nizhny no go od Enginee ing company (Jsc niaEp) <<a omene gop oek >>b an enginee ing company ha designs, cons uc s, and pu s in o ope a ion powe acili ies in ussia and implemen s p ojec s ab oad. also p o ides hem wi h mode n compu e -based ins umen a- ion and con ol sys ems Jsc a oms oyexpo (Jsc asE) a key o eign ade enginee ing company esponsi- ble o he cons uc ion o nuclea powe acili ies ab oad; since 2012, wo king wi h Jsc niaEp o he implemen a ion o i s p ojec s as a pa o he in eg a ed company Jsc niaEp-Jsc asE oKB Gid op ess a subsidia y o osa om esponsible o designing he equipmen and sys ems in ended o powe and nuclea indus y aos p ojec oy a Finnish subsidia y in cha ge o he nuclea eac o supply o he hanhiki i-1 npp aos Voima oy a Finnish subsidia y ep esen ing osa om wi h 34% in he Finnish Fenno oima, a p i a e company building he six h npp uni in Finland 392 P. AALTO ET AL. company expec s, he numbe o skilled employees in his sec o would g ow om some 300,000 o almos a million (Go e nmen o he Russian Fede a ion 2014).4 Second, he nuclea ene gy business helps o p omo e Russia’s wide socio-eco - nomic in e es s in he o m o he mode niza ion o he economy and di e si ica- ion o i s expo s uc u e. The Russian economy is locked in o esou ce e enues om oil and na u al gas (Gaddy and Ickes 2013). Russian ene gy policy planning seeks o educe his dependence. Ins ead o aking ossil uel esou ces as he main ehicle o de elopmen , i iden i ies he ene gy sec o o e all as an in as uc u e o be de eloped (Minis y o Ene gy o he Russian Fede a ion 2014). This implies ha Russian economic policy is aking a mo e de elopmen alis di ec ion. The s a e ac i ely suppo s high echnology indus ies and R&D in a eas in which Russia con inues o enjoy compe i i e ad an age as a legacy o he So ie e a. Rosa om is one o hese na ional champion companies. Since i s e o m in 2007, Rosa om has inc eased i s in es men s in R&D se en old, he annual a e being ela i ely high a 4.5% (Low y 2016). The nuclea indus y can help o u he di e si y he economy and expo s by gene a ing demand o p oduc s and se ices in engi- nee ing, he s eel indus y, geology, and cons uc ion. The NPP p ojec s ab oad ha e such wide- anging mode niza ion po en ial by i ue o Rosa om using se - e al Russian con ac o s. Thi d, he in e es o he s a e in o eign policy in luence also shapes he ac i i ies o Rosa om ab oad. Some wes e n commen a o s hink Russian-buil NPPs unc ion like embassies (A ms ong 2015). Owing o he espec i e long- e m con ac s, hey inc ease poli ical coope a ion wi h he hos coun ies (see Spu nik News 2015). Fo some, hese p ojec s a e “ i mly on he Russian P esiden ’s agenda”; he e o e, “while nuclea powe expo s ha e bo h comme cial aspec s and mode nizing a gumen s suppo ing hem, hei s a egic and poli ical alue is also undeniable” (Ma ikainen and Vihma 2016). The Russian Fo eign Policy Concep o 2013 s a es mo e neu ally ha one o he basic goals o o eign pol- icy is “s eng hening Russia’s posi ions in he global ade and economic sys em, p o iding diploma ic suppo o na ional economic ope a o s ab oad” (Minis y o Fo eign A ai s 2013). To his end, Russia “wo ks o c ea e a o able poli ical en i- onmen o di e si y Russia’s p esence in global ma ke s h ough he b oadening o i s expo s nomencla u e and o he geog aphy o i s o eign economic and in es - men ela ions” (2013). A he same ime, Russia’s Na ional Secu i y S a egy o 2016 men ions somewha bleak economic p ospec s and iden i ies he sanc ions as an impedimen o diploma ic e o s o emedy he si ua ion (Ku ee 2016). Al hough o icial s a egies emain ambiguous on he connec ions be ween o eign policy and ene gy (o e en mo e so o nuclea ene gy), schola ly analyses equen ly link he wo. Howe e , as discussed below, we should no equa e hem in a adi ional geopoli ical ashion bu need mo e nuanced analysis in he EU-Russian con ex in pa icula (see Dann eu he 2016). Such de ailed analysis mus acknowledge how Russian ac o s pu sue hei in e - es s in an in e ac i e con ex whe e hei coun e pa s’ “ eadings” o in e p e a ions EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 393 o hese Russian in e es s a e decisi e. Bo owing om Feklyunina (2016), he ene gy business and p o i in e es s, o example, may be pe inen no only o Russian ac o s, bu also o ac o s in he a ge coun y. I so, a deg ee o collec i e iden i y p e ails be ween he wo pa ies. Such a compa ible unde s anding o “ou ” join in e es s opens a window o oppo uni y o Russian ac o s o exe cise “so powe ” making ce ain ou comes mo e likely han o he s; o example, acil- i a ing ag eemen s on NPP p ojec s. How we see he pu sui o Russian in e es s is always a subjec i e and con ex -dependen exe cise. Russian ac ions can be associa ed wi h ha d powe quali ies i pe cei ed o ha e been imposed o wi h so powe quali ies i pe cei ed as a sha ed p ope y o he pa ies. The h ee in e es s we disce n a e also in e ela ed and as such may be mu ually suppo i e o incompa ible. The weigh o each in e es a ies. Ac o s may pu sue hem explici ly o implici ly. We can now hypo hesize ha he ex en o which he Russian ac o s can u he hei in e es s in nuclea ene gy diplomacy is a case- and con ex -speci ic ques ion. The ealiza ion o he in e es s depends on he balance be ween he asse s Russian ac o s possess and he cons ain s o he s uc u e in which hey conduc hei ope a ions. We will model he s uc u e in Finland and Hunga y wi hin he concep o he policy en i onmen . I includes ou dimensions shaping he way in which Russian ac o s can u he hei in e es s. Policy en i onmen s Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy encoun e s a ious policy en i onmen s in indi - idual EU Membe S a es. The main p inciples o he Ene gy Union – ene gy secu- i y, compe i i e ma ke , ene gy e iciency, de-ca boniza ion, and R&D (Eu opean Eu opean Commission 2015a) – se he o e all policy amewo k o nuclea ene gy. The Eu a om T ea y o 1957 se s a 20% limi on he supply o u anium o nuclea powe plan s om a single ex e nal sou ce and s ipula es coope a ion on nuclea esea ch, sa e y, and secu i y (Mal by 2013). The ma ke s p inciple o EU ene gy pol- icy equi es he use o a compe i i e p ocess o he con ac ing o nuclea powe plan s. Apa om hese p o isions, he EU lacks an explici nuclea ene gy policy. The Fukushima disas e u he educed he demand o such a policy (Talus 2013). While Ge many is phasing ou i s NPPs and Sweden e ains om building any mo e, Finland, Hunga y, Bulga ia, he Czech Republic, F ance, Li huania, Poland, Slo akia, and he Uni ed Kingdom con inue wi h hei nuclea powe p ojec s (Eu opean Commission 2017a). Alongside his gene ic EU policy amewo k, Russian ac o s mus me iculously analyze he na ional policy en i onmen in which hey wish o ope a e. We sugges s a ing his analysis om he esou ces, echnology, and in as uc u e dimen- sion. Russian ac o s can shape his dimension decisi ely. In 2014, 18% o u anium supplied o he EU came om Russia (WNA 2015). The Russian i m JSC TVEL has a nea - monopoly o e uel supply o he VVER-440 eac o s in he EU (Vlček 2016). The VVER-440 uni s a e he i s ype o he VVER amily and numbe al oge he 400 P. AALTO ET AL. Wi h Rosa om as he eac o supplie , Fenno oima had o upda e he En i onmen al Impac Assessmen (EIA) epo (Sy jämäki, Kojo, and Li manen 2015). The upda ed epo concluded ha in ela ion o he o iginally in ended 1800MW plan , “ he impac o adioac i e emissions will be o oughly he same magni ude” (Fenno oima 2014). To suppo he Russian in e es in mode niza ion and di e si ica ion o expo s, Rosa om needed Hanhiki i-1 as an in e na ional e e ence. I he e o e needed o ul ill he nuclea sa e y s anda ds in Finland. In 2012 Rosa om ec ui ed he e i ed Di ec o Gene al o STUK, Jukka Laaksonen, as Vice P esiden in Rosa om O e seas. Acco ding o Rosa om (see A omene gop om 2012), he ec ui men “speaks o how much impo ance we a ach o he e ec i eness and sa e y o ou p ojec s.” In he p elimina y sa e y assessmen , STUK (2014a, 2014b) equi ed e isions o mee he Finnish equi emen s. Fu he c i icism om neighbo ing Sweden ocused on he c oss-bo de impac s o he plan . By 2016, Fenno oima had no sol ed he p oblem o managemen o spen nuclea uel. Posi a L d., which is building a inal disposal acili y o he exis ing NPPs, only ag eed o collabo a e by selling expe se ices, bu no o sha e he acili y. The Minis y o Economic A ai s and Employmen (2014, 2016) deemed Fenno oima’s epo s su icien a ha poin and allowed i o con inue he p ocess o applying o a cons uc ion license. The go e nmen in ends o decide on he applica ion by 2019 (Table 2). The ealiza ion o Russian in e es s in he case o Hunga y In 2015, 52% o he elec ici y p oduced in Hunga y came om nuclea powe , 19% om coal, 17% om na u al gas, and he es om enewables (mos ly om biomass and wind powe ); howe e , al oge he 38% o elec ici y consumed was impo ed (Eu opean Commission 2017b). In Hunga y he sha e o nuclea powe in he gene a ion o elec ici y is he i h la ges in Eu ope a e F ance, Slo akia, Belgium, and Uk aine (Index 2014). Hunga y’s o e all ene gy impo dependence, 52% in 2013, was in line wi h he EU a e age, o high by Hunga ian s anda ds (Eu opean Commission 2015b; Minis y o Na ional De elopmen 2012). In 2012, 85% o oil, 79% o na u al gas, and 100% o nuclea uel we e Russian impo s (Ámon and Deák 2015). Since Hunga y is land-locked, al e na i e supplie s o oil and na u al gas a e limi ed. So ie nuclea echnology and Russian nuclea uel supplies a e indispensable o Hunga y’s nuclea ene gy sec o . Poli ically, Hunga y belonged o COMECON and he Wa saw Pac , hus o de ing a nuclea powe plan om he Wes was p ac- ically impossible (Nyyssönen 2006). The own o Paks in sou he n Hunga y is he si e o ou So ie -supplied 500MW VVER-440 eac o s, ope a ed by he ully s a e- owned MVM (Magya Villamos Mű ek). In Ma ch 2009 he Hunga ian Pa liamen made a decision-in-p inciple on he p epa a o y wo k o Paks-2, comp ising wo new uni s. In June 2012 he go e nmen made Paks-2 a high p io i y. The oldes EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 401 wo Paks eac o s ecei ed a 20-yea li e ime ex ension in 2012 and 2014 un il he 2030s. The expansion o nuclea powe akes place in he con ex o se e al cu -o s o na u al gas deli e ies o Hunga y since he mid-2000s due o Russian- Uk ainian dispu es (Acke mann 2014; Ma ni z 2014). To dec ease he isks o an- si h ough Uk aine, Hunga y suppo ed he Gazp om-led Sou h S eam pipeline p ojec , which had collapsed by la e 2014. The Hunga ian deba e hen u ned o possible Russian gas impo s h ough Tu key (Népszabadság 2015a). Russian ac o s ha e consolida ed hei posi ion in he Hunga ian ene gy sec o since he e u n o powe o P ime Minis e Vik o O bán and his Fidesz Pa y in 2010. Table 2. ealiza ion o ussian in e es s in he case o Finland. Resou ces, echnology, and in as uc u e Finance, business mod- els, and ma ke s Ins i u ional Ecological osa om’s TVEL concluded a en-yea ag eemen wi h he Finnish commis- sioning p i a e company, Fenno oima, o he p o ision o nuclea uel o he hanhiki i-1 npp €6.5–7bln cos es ima e o which a €4.8–5.3bln loan o be a anged by he ussian pa ies; Finnish Go e nmen declined ejec ed u he osa om in es - men by equi ing 60% Eu a ea owne ship – o mee his c i e ion, he pa -s a e owned Fo um acqui ed 6.6% as a “doo opene ” o a possible Join Ven u e wi h osa om a e pa liamen accep ed Fenno oima’s e ised applica ion o a deci- sion-in-p inciple wi h osa om as eac o supplie , he G eens le he Finnish go e nmen in p o es agains he 2010 decision, c i iciz- ing he go e nmen o “ inlandiza ion” and wa ning o oo close connec ions o ussian o eign policy in e es s The p ojec was com- pa ible wi h Finnish and Eu clima e policy and deca boniza ion a ge s The npp is se o u ilize he ussian VVE plan echnology in iew o he Fukushima acciden o u he he mode niza- ion and di e si ica ion in e es s o he ussian go e nmen ; howe e , osa om su e ed se ious delays in p oducing he documen a ion o a cons uc ion license Tu nkey business model and p ospec i e elec- ici y sales business in he Finnish and no dic ma ke s as a pa owne o Fenno oima, which se a maximum p ice o €50/mWh o he elec ici y he plan would s a o p oduce in 2024. se e al Finnish sub-con ac o s in ol ed o ca e o “join in e es s” immedia ely a e Fenno- oima passed he i s phase in licensing, i p oceeded o apply o a cons uc ion license wi h documen a ion o sa e y assessmen . howe e , his s ep was delayed because o disag eemen s among osa om, Fenno oima, and Finnish au ho i ies on documen a ion To suppo ussian in e es in mode niza- ion and di e si ica ion o expo s, osa om needed hanhiki i-1 as an in e na ional e e ence; o achie e his i needed o ul il he nuclea sa e y s anda ds in Finland ussian companies Ti an-2, a omene gomash, oKB Gid op ess, and a om- p oek selec ed wi h Fen- no oima’s app o al as he main subcon ac o s o in as uc u e de el- opmen , hus se ing he ussian business and mode niza ion in e es s The ag eemen acco ding o p esiden pu in is bene icial o he ussian economy and a good in es men by he ussian na ional Weal h Fund. howe e , his commi men was being econside ed immedia ely owing o inancing sho alls in he ussian budge Fenno oima and osa- om had o con ince Finnish socie y o he ele ance o he p ojec by o ganizing e en s o s akeholde s, sponso ing ac i i ies o young people, and p omising jobs and o he oppo uni ies o local companies Fenno oima’s epo s deemed su icien by he esponsible minis y e en wi h an un esol ed inal dis- posal a angemen o spen nuclea uel; he company was allowed o p oceed o applying o a cons uc ion license. The decision o he applica ion is scheduled o 2019 402 P. AALTO ET AL. The esou ces, echnology and in as uc u e dimension Rosa om concluded he ag eemen o he Paks-2 NPP in Moscow in Janua y 2014, in he p esence o Rosa om CEO Se gei Ki iyenko, P esiden Pu in, and PM O bán. The Nizhny No go od Enginee ing Company A omene gop oek (NIAEP-ASE) (see Table 1) is esponsible o he enginee ing, p ocu emen , and cons uc ion o wo 1200MW VVER AES1200 eac o s, modeled on Hunga y’s exis ing eac o s. They should be in comme cial ope a ion by 2025 and 2026, al hough he En i onmen al Impac Assessmen men ions he yea s 2025 and 2030 (see MVM E be 2015). Rosa om’s subsidia y, JSC TVEL, o iginally concluded a 20-yea exclusi e nuclea uel supply ag eemen wi h MVM, which was cu o 10yea s a e he Eu a om Supply Agency and he Eu opean Commission in e ened o ensu e compe i ion among uel supplie s. The posi ion o Russian companies as he majo subcon ac o s se es no only he business and p o i s in e es s o Rosa om, i s ne wo k, and he Russian go e n- men , bu also Russian mode niza ion and he di e si ica ion o expo s in e es . In Feb ua y 2015 he Ge man Chancello Angela Me kel p omo ed he in e es s o Siemens in he cons uc ion p ocess (Magya Nemze 2015; Népszabadság 2014b, 2015b). The inancial, business models and ma ke s dimension The es ima ed cos o Paks-2 is €12 billion, including he supply o nuclea uel. Rosa om ini ially commi ed o a anging a €10 billion loan, epayable by 2044, wi h he ully s a e-owned Vnesheconombank as he likelies unde . The Hunga ian side was o p o ide €2 billion, bu in ea ly 2017 P esiden Pu in aised his o e o co e he whole amoun o he loan.7 Acco ding o A ila Aszodi, he s a e commissione in cha ge o he expansion, he o e o inance made Rosa om p e e able o A e a o Wes inghouse (Than 2015). Howe e , conce ns eme ged in Hunga y o how a long- e m loan om a Russian s a e en i y o a Hunga ian s a e en i y migh inad e en ly se e Russian o eign policy in e es s a he expense o Hunga y. The Eu opean Commission o i s pa sc u inized he Hunga ian pa o he inancing ega ding possible s a e subsidies bu app o ed i a e measu es o con ol “undue dis o ions” o compe i ion in he Hunga ian ene gy ma ke (Eu opean Commission 2017c; Népszabadság 2015e, 2016). In he Hunga ian case, Rosa om used a u nkey business model simila o ha used in Finland and sough o accommoda e Hunga ian in e es s by ans e ing he plan o ull owne ship o MVM and by assu ing domes ic i ms a 40% sha e in he cons uc ion p ocesses. The Hunga ian go e nmen u he mo e expec ed he plan o gene a e up o 10,000 new jobs and educe ene gy dependence (Lázá 2014). Howe e , con a y o i s plans in Finland, Rosa om will no sell elec ici y in he Hunga ian ma ke . Becoming a ma ke pa icipan in Hunga y may in ac EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 403 comp omise he p o i in e es s o Rosa om. In 2013 PM O bán sugges ed ha Hunga ian elec ici y p ices could become he lowes in he CEE in some ou o i e yea s (Index 2013). Howe e , some obse e s deem such expec a ions odd gi en he in es men cos s o he new uni s, which should make consume p ices some h ee imes highe o ende he in es men s p o i able (Sipos 2013). The go e n- men has based i s legi imacy on low elec ici y p ices and commi ed o ezsicsök- ken és, meaning he educ ion o u ili y bills and li ing cos s. This was one o he key issues in he 2014 elec ion campaign o he O bán egime (Népszabadság 2014a; Ko ács 2015). In p ac ice, he go e nmen ’s policy o de e mining he p ice has led o ezsiha c (o e head wa ) wi h B ussels (Magya Nemze 2014). The opposi- ion has suppo ed mo e ma ke -based mechanisms wi h he a gumen ha low p ices lead o highe consump ion and delay in es men s in enewable ene gy. Since 2014 a deba e o e elec ici y p ices has gone on concu en ly wi h eme ging conce ns abou Russian o eign policy in e es s. Such in e mingling o he dimension o inance, business models, and ma ke s wi h o eign policy issues has become pa o he policy en i onmen Russian ac o s encoun e in Hunga y. Thus when P esiden Pu in isi ed Hunga y in Feb ua y 2015, he wi nessed exp es- sions o hese conce ns wi h demons a o s shou ing slogans like “We will no be a [Russian] colony” (Népszabadság 2015a,c). The ins i u ional dimension Rosa om was nego ia ing he Paks-2 ag eemen a a ime when Hunga y’s ela ions wi h he Eu opean Union and he Uni ed S a es we e cooling. Rosa om signed he 2014 ag eemen wi h Hunga y a e he Uk ainian P esiden , Vik o Yanuko ich, had accep ed a deal wi h Russia ins ead o he long-nego ia ed associa ion ag eemen wi h he EU. Howe e , Rosa om concluded he ag eemen be o e he Uk ainian Maidan up ising led o his ous ing om o ice and he Eu opean Union, he Uni ed S a es, and se e al o he s a es imposed sanc ions on Russia. Unlike in Finland, Rosa om was no dealing wi h a nuclea powe lobby consis - ing o indus ies and municipali ies bu wi h a go e nmen in e es ed in e aining i s domes ic poli ical powe , making he Paks-2 ag eemen pa o i s elec o al campaign. While in opposi ion, he Fidesz Pa y was c i ical o Russian in luence. When in o ice and in he un-up o he elec ions, i allied i s in e es s o s ay in powe wi h he in e es s o Rosa om and Russia (Lázá 2014). Ou app oach ea s he eme gence o such sha ed in e es s as a pla o m o Russian ac o s using so powe . O bán’s o e whelming majo i y enabling a powe ul leade ship simila o ha enjoyed by P esiden Pu in o i s pa pa ed he way o Russian ac o s o ocus any pe suasi e e o s equi ed on only one g oup in Hunga y. The supe - majo i y enabled Fidesz o limi he pa liamen a y p ocessing o jus ou days. The uling pa y ecei ed suppo om he ul a-na ionalis Jobbik Pa y, which has connec ions o Russia, bu also aced espionage allega ions (Népszabadság 2015 ). 404 P. AALTO ET AL. The ag eemen and i s pa liamen a y app o al esul ed in ins i u ional u moil beyond he con ol o Rosa om o Russia. The i s eac ions o he opposi ion and he NGOs anged om calls o a e e endum o an ex a session o he pa liamen (Népszabadság 2014b). In 2014 he g een-libe al Lehe Más a Poli ika (LMP) p o- es ed agains he pa liamen a y session by sounding a si en: hey c i icized he has y pa liamen a y p ocedu e and lack o access o backg ound documen s (ATV 2014), as did he o me P esiden o Hunga y, László Sólyom. While Paks-2 was one o he mos impo an decisions o he O bán go e nmen , he opposi ion deemed he quali y o poli ical deba e low, hei own ea men un ai , and he whole p ocedu e a iola ion o he o de o he pa liamen (Tibo 2014). Fidesz amed he ag eemen wi h Rosa om in e ms o na ional secu i y and he eby jus i ied he classi ica ion o he documen s. E en ually he P esiden o Hunga y, János Áde , a i ied he bill in Feb ua y 2014. By No embe 2014, he Russian Fo eign Minis e Se gei La o had com- mended Hunga y o no succumbing o “Russophobic app oaches,” unlike some o he CEE s a es in he EU (Than 2015). In 2015 he Eu opean Commission launched an in ingemen p ocedu e agains Hunga y o suspec ed iola ion o he pub- lic p ocu emen ules, bu closed he case in No embe 2016. In he Eu opean Pa liamen , in addi ion o c i icism o he s a e o democ acy and eedom in Hunga y, he Paks case aised doub s ega ding he lack o public consul a ion, ambiguous ene gy secu i y e ec s, and compa ibili y wi h Eu opean law (c . Pa liamen a y ques ions 2015). The Hunga ian go e nmen e ec i ely es uc u ed some o he no ms and p ac ices in he coun y a he expense o anspa ency by classi ying he de ails o he case o 30yea s ins ead o he no mal 15yea s. The go e nmen jus i ied his by ea s abou sensi i e in o ma ion being leaked o e o is s (Népszabadság 2015d). The LMP again adop ed ex a-pa liamen a y measu es such as using meg- aphones and banne s (O szággüylési Napló 2015). The Russian and Hunga ian go e nmen s comple ed he o mali ies by upda ing he 2001 in e go e nmen al ag eemen on nuclea ene gy (Soglashenie 2014). Soon a e he classi ica ion decision, in Ma ch 2015, he Hunga ian G eens o ganized a hea ing in Pa liamen (Daily News Hunga y 2015). They compa ed he expedi ed p ocedu e o ha in Finland whe ein Fenno oima nego ia ed on de ails o yea s, and ques ioned i he go e nmen was unawa e o he EU Commission’s opposi ion o he ini ially ag eed 20yea s’ uel supply monopoly. The leade o he Hunga ian ci ic lobby Ene giaklub, Ada Ámon, u he c i icized he go e nmen ’s ailu e o publish any s udies on he impac s o he Paks-2 p ojec on he ene gy ma ke s o p ices (Hunga y Ma e s 2015; Index 2015). O e all, o he go e nmen , he case depended on domes ic in e es s in e aining poli ical powe by secu ing allegedly cheap ene gy. Fo he opposi ion, i comp omised Hunga ian o eign policy in e es s in commi ing he u u e o he coun y o decades o come. The opposi ion pe cei ed he go e nmen o ha e been in luenced by Russian use o so powe . EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 405 The ecological dimension Vis-à- is he ecological dimension, Rosa om nego ia ed wi h a go e nmen p e- e ing cen alized nuclea powe p oduc ion due o in e es s in secu i y o supply, con olling cos s, and mee ing he deca boniza ion objec i es ag eed on a he EU le el (Minis y o Na ional De elopmen 2012, 28–29). By con as , some opposi- ion g oups p e e ed a mo e decen alized ene gy sys em based on enewable sou ces o ene gy. Fo example, he Ene giaklub e e ed o Denma k, which by 2050 aims o achie e an ene gy sys em based o ally on enewables (MTI 2015). The EU Commission also wa ned he Hunga ian go e nmen o how he policy o main aining low egula ed p ices migh comp omise he p ospec s o imp o ing ene gy e iciency (Can on e al. 2013). Rosa om and MVM had o modi y some echnical and sa e y ea u es o he Paks-2 NPP a e he publica ion o he EIA epo in 2015 (see MVM Paks II 2016), which also e oked in e na ional c i icism ega ding he quali y o he documen- a ion (Nuclea T anspa ency Wa ch 2015). The en i onmen al license g an ed in Sep embe 2016 was upheld agains complain s in Ap il 2017. The Hunga ian A omic Ene gy Au ho i y (HAEA) g an ed he si e and cons uc ion license in Ma ch 2017, which would enable building o s a on ime in 2018 (MVM Paks II 2016). The HAEA is also esponsible o sa e y and was e issues. Unde he 1995 pol- icy, spen uel is s o ed in pools a Paks o i e yea s and is hen ans e ed o an in e im (50-yea ) d y s o age acili y. Fo he long-li ed in e media e-le el and high-le el was es, a clays one o ma ion in he sou hwes has been in es iga ed. The cons uc ion o a long- e m deposi o y has been ongoing since 2012 (WNA 2017) (Table 3). Conclusion Russia has an abundance o ene gy esou ces a ac ing in e es om a wide ange o o eign go e nmen s and companies, enabling Russia o exe cise ac i e ene gy diplomacy. We used he s uc u a ion app oach o sc u inize in mo e de ail how Russian ac o s seek o ake ad an age o hei conside able asse s in he nuclea ene gy sec o . Howe e , ou analysis s essed ha Russian nuclea ene gy diplo- macy has o se e se e al in e es s simul aneously while accessing o eign ma ke s in he a ge coun ies. In he cases o Finland and Hunga y, i aces he s uc u al cons ain s ensuing om EU-le el policy and he na ional policy en i onmen s. Ou app oach and esea ch ques ions ocused speci ically on his di icul “ i ” be ween he in e es s o he Russian ac o s wi h he ea u es o he ele an policy en i- onmen . Rega ding ou i s esea ch ques ion, each o he h ee in e es s we pos ula ed is disce nible in he wo cases. Rosa om pu sued i s join in e es wi h o he Russian ac o s in he ene gy busi- ness and p o i s by o e ing a b oadly simila echnological solu ion o he Finnish and Hunga ian con ac ing pa ies; ha is, he same eac o ype and ag eemen s 406 P. AALTO ET AL. o he supply o nuclea uel and ela ed in as uc u e. To pu sue his business in e es , Rosa om was a en i e o he case-speci ic cons ain s o he policy en i- onmen in hese wo cases. S ulbe g (2007) ound he same also o be ue o Rosa om’s conduc in Cen al Asia. In Finland and Hunga y, Rosa om and i s ne - wo k supplied he echnology and in as uc u e on a u nkey basis. Howe e , in Finland, Rosa om also sough u he p o i s by becoming a co-owne and ma ke pa icipan in he Finnish elec ici y ma ke connec ed u he o No he n Eu ope. In he Hunga ian case, whe e he O bán go e nmen is keen o main ain low elec ici y p ices and whe e p o i s a e ha de o make, Rosa om limi s i sel o a (po en ial) inancie and plan supplie ole. In bo h cases, a key asse o Rosa om was i s o e o s a e-backed inance – in he Finnish case, i was decisi e o he p ojec o con inue. Russian in e es in he mode niza ion o i s economy and di e si ica ion o i s expo s uc u e was also equally disce nible. Rosa om cul i a ed So ie -e a ech- nological expe ise by o e ing a new e sion o a ied and es ed eac o design ha was al eady o some ex en amilia o he Finnish and Hunga ian ac o s. This, oo, cons i u ed an asse o Rosa om when compe ing designs su e ed om echnological p oblems a si es anging om Japan’s Fukushima o Finland’s badly Table 3. ealiza ion o ussian in e es s in he case o hunga y. Resou ces, echnology, and in as uc u e Finance, business mod- els, and ma ke s Ins i u ional Ecological TVEL’s 20-yea exclusi e nuclea uel supply ag eemen wi h he mVm o paks-2 cu by 10 yea s a e Eu a om supply agency and Eu opean commission in e ened on g ounds o enabling compe i ion €12bln cos es ima e including he supply o nuclea uel; inancial package consis ing o ussian €10bln loan o e , epayable by 2044 wi h hunga ian inance o €2bln. an imp o ed 100% inanc- ing o e by ussia in ea ly 2017 Fas - ack p ocedu e o he ag eemen in he pa liamen , c i icized by he opposi ion o lacking democ acy, anspa ency, and ma - ke o ecas s; Eu opean commission enqui y on g ounds o compe i ion law; c i icism in he Eu opean pa liamen osa om and mVm had o modi y pa s o he echnical and sa e y ea u es a e he publica ion o he en i onmen al impac assessmen epo niaEp-asE, a osa om subsidia y, esponsible o he enginee ing, p o- cu emen and cons uc- ion o wo 1200 mW VVE aEs 1200 eac o s, modeled on hunga y’s exis ing eac o s hea y s a e in ol emen in he u nkey business model. domes ic i ms assu ed a 40% sha e in he cons uc ion p ocess o suppo he eme gence o pe cep- ions o “join in e es s” in 2014 in e go e n- men al ag eemen o coope a ion on nuclea ene gy wi h he hunga ian go e nmen was signed be o e he uk aine c isis and he sanc ions in e na ional c i icism o he quali y o doc- umen a ion ega ding sa e y issues in as uc u e p o ision se es he business in e es s o osa om, i s ne wo k, and he ussian go e nmen , while sub-con ac ing se es he wide ussian mode niza ion and di e si ica ion o expo s in e es osa om no o become ma ke pa icipan h ough he hunga ian Go e nmen p omising low p ices; opposi ion suspicious o he p ice p omises and ad e se e ec s o de eloping enewable ene gy and s eng hening o ussian p esence and possible o eign policy in e es s osa om and he Go e n- men o hunga y aced accep abili y conce ns on he pa o he hunga ian opposi ion, which also highligh ed how he p ojec s migh inad e en ly se e ussian o eign policy in e es s o he de i- men o hunga y hunga ian a omic Ene gy au ho i y esponsible o sa e y and was e ma e s; sho - e m and in e im s o age o nuclea was e om paks a ailable while con- s uc ion o long- e m deposi o y in p og ess since 2012 EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 407 delayed i h NPP uni buil by A e a. Following a de elopmen alis economic model (Low y 2016), he s a e-owned Rosa om backed by s a e unding and i s ne wo k o e ed high echnology p oduc s and se ices, gene a ed sub-con ac - ing o Russian companies, and hence helped o mode nize pa s o he Russian economy and di e si y he expo po olio away om oil and gas. The Russian s a e also u he ed i s o eign policy in e es s in bo h cases by ein o cing an es ablished diploma ic ela ionship in he nuclea ene gy sec o and ex ending i s li e o decades. These o eign policy gains a e aluable in con as o he cons ain s in wide EU-Russia ene gy diplomacy, in pa icula sanc ions in he oil sec o and con o e sies o e gas supplies. Al hough Russian o eign policymake s commen ed a o ably on he Finnish and Hunga ian NPP p ojec s, hey we e ca e ul no o di ec ly connec hese o o eign policy in luence. Ye such po en ial in luence was disce ned in he commen a y by he Finnish Minis y o Fo eign A ai s and g oups opposing he p ojec s in Finland and Hunga y. While Russian nuclea ene gy diplomacy is-à- is Finland was conduc ed mos ly h ough Rosa om and i s subsidia ies o a oid poli iciza ion, in he Hunga ian case i had a mo e open s a e- o-s a e cha ac e in ol ing hese coun ies’ espec i e p esiden s in a high-le el dialog. The pu sui o Russian o eign policy in e es s also in ol es he use o so powe . In Finland, pa ly s a e-owned companies and i ms wi h in e es s in Russia we e pe suaded o en e he Hanhiki i-1 p ojec o each he 60% Finnish o EU-a ea owne ship c i e ia se by he go e nmen . A e ini ial hesi a ions, he Finnish pa - ies concluded join in e es s wi h Russian ac o s o be a s ake. In bo h coun ies, Rosa om’s ne wo k was able o enhance such a pe cep ion by c ea ing subcon ac - ing oles and jobs o local i ms. The o eign policy in e es s, howe e , emained mo e sub le han in he case o Rosa om’s Akkuyu NPP p ojec in Tu key. This p o- jec only egained i s momen um once Russia and Tu key esumed diploma ic ela ions a e he impasse o e he downing o a Russian igh e je by Tu key in 2015, ollowing Tu key’s ailed mili a y coup and subsequen domes ic de elop- men s in he summe o 2016 ha pushed Tu key u he owa d an ou side ole in ela ion o he EU simila o ha o Russia. Ou second esea ch ques ion conce ned he ex en o which Russian ac o s could ealize hei in e es s in he wo cases. We ound Russian ac o s adep a using hei conside able asse s on he dimension o esou ces, echnology, and in as uc u e. Howe e , hei eco d o balancing he asse s and s uc u al con- s ain s on he dimension o inance, business models, and ma ke s is mo e mixed. In bo h cases Rosa om made an a ac i e inancing o e accompanied by a u n- key business model. Ye , in he Finnish case i was poo ly in o med on he poli ical necessi y o he 60% equi emen o domes ic o EU a ea owne ship. I de ended he en y as a p ojec pa ne o a small C oa ian company ha he Finnish au ho - i ies ul ima ely deemed a on o ganiza ion po en ially u ilizing Russian unding om a s a e-owned ins i u ion in place o EU-a ea inancing. 408 P. AALTO ET AL. In e ms o he ins i u ional dimension, in Finland Rosa om passed he i s s ep equi ed by Finnish law ega dless o objec ions by he pa liamen a y oppo- si ion. In Hunga y, Rosa om was s angely unawa e o how he EU-le el ma ke egula ion hampe s he use o long- e m supply con ac s and had o wai o he Commission o ule on whe he he planned inancial package was compa ible wi h EU law on s a e aid. O e all, Rosa om and i s pa ne s encoun e ed ewe cons ain s in Hunga y on he pa o he domes ic opposi ion han in Finland due o he Hunga ian go e nmen e ec i ely supp essing dissen . This, o i s pa , made Hunga y a a ge o c i icism in he Eu opean Pa liamen . On he ecological dimension, Rosa om emba ked on a lea ning p ocess o imp o e i s expe ise by pa icipa ing in he discussion Fenno oima had wi h he Finnish nuclea sa e y au ho i ies. In Hunga y Rosa om encoun e ed simila c i i- cism on sa e y and c oss-bo de impac s as i did in Finland. Ye i bene i ed om he campaign launched by he go e nmen in 2015 s essing he de-ca bonizing ad an ages o he Paks-2 p ojec . In summa y, we ind he hea ies cons ain s eme ging o Russian ac o s on he ins i u ional dimension. This shows how he ene gy sec o has ea u ed mo e egula ion, policy measu es, and sc u iny since he p edecesso o Rosa om con- cluded he i s ag eemen s in Cold Wa Eu ope. A he same ime, he nuclea ene gy diplomacy o Russian ac o s has managed o emo e some ins i u ional cons ain s by skill ully p epa ing he g ound o he eme gence o join en u es and o he in e es s. This has enabled Russian ac o s o use so powe o shape pe cep ions in he a ge coun y. Al hough his in ol emen o Russian o eign policy in e es s is milde and sub le han some wes e n obse e s ha e wa ned, i is some hing Russia seeks when sanc ions and lowe p ices o oil and gas make any gains ha de o come by elsewhe e han in he ield o nuclea ene gy diplomacy. No es 1. Rosa om has examined he p ospec s o expanding i s ope a ions in Slo akia, while Bulga ia is looking o e i e he Belene NPP p ojec whe e Rosa om was he supplie be o e he ag eemen was canceled in 2012. 2. The nuclea ene gy sec o is no di ec ly subjec o he sanc ions as is o sho e and A c ic oil; no Rosa om subsidia ies a e unde sanc ions as o Augus 2017. Howe e , he sanc ions in luence he nuclea ene gy ade and diplomacy indi ec ly. Access o long- e m in e na ional inance and high-le el poli ical mee ing is es ic ed, including a el and isa bans on some high- anking poli ical and business leade s (Aal o and Fo sbe g 2016). 3. Fo example, in May 2017, he US Ai Fo ce used Finnish ai bases o NATO mili a y exe cises while in June 2016, NATO oops conduc ed a landing d ill along he Finnish coas line. 4. As wi h o he s a egic indus ies in Russia, some obse e s expec ha some o he ac o s in he ne wo ks in ol ed seek pe sonal business bene i s since he owne ship s uc u es lack anspa ency (see e.g. Tikkala 2016). Al hough such in o mal ne wo ks may no be op imal o compe i ion, hey can be unc ional o uni ying s a e and EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 409 business ac o s, helping hem o dis ibu e esou ces and ul ima ely, conduc business (Ledene a 2013, 249–250). 5. The o icial English ansla ion was changed in 2015 om he Minis y o Employmen and he Economy (MEE) o he Minis y o Economic A ai s and Employmen (MEAE). 6. Howe e , he maximum p ice o €50/MWh p omised o he owne s o Fenno oima (Fenno oima 2013b) is much highe han he ac ual a e age p ices on he No d Pool ma ke in he 2010s. 7. Compa ing he Hunga ian case o he ongoing B i ish Hinkley Poin p ojec , S ephen Thomas o he Uni e si y o G eenwich es ima ed ha Paks would be buil essen ially cheape han i s B i ish coun e pa : €5200 pe KWh agains Hinkley’s €7000 (Index 2015). The Russian loan would be bene icial o he Hunga ians: 3.95–4.95% compa ed o he B i ish p ojec a 9.75–10.25%. Howe e , János Tó h Is án poin ed ou ha he e is o en oom o co up ion as cos s o nuclea powe plan s seldom emain wi hin hei budge s (2015). Disclosu e s a emen No po en ial con lic o in e es was epo ed by he au ho s. Funding This wo k was suppo ed by he Academy o Finland Cen e o Excellence on ‘Choices o Russian Mode nisa ion’ (2012-17) and he S a egic Resea ch Council conso ium ‘T ansi ion o a Resou ce E icien and Clima e Neu al Elec ici y Sys em (EL-TRAN) (2015-17)’ [g an numbe 293437]. ORCID Pami Aal o h p://o cid.o g/0000-0003-1559-8175 Re e ences Aal o, Pami, and Tuomas Fo sbe g. 2016. “The S uc u a ion o Russia’s Geo-Economy unde Economic Sanc ions.” Asia Eu ope Jou nal 14: 221–237. doi:10.1007/s10308-015-0446-6. Aal o, Pami, Da id Dusseaul , Ma kku Ki inen, and Michael D. Kennedy. 2012. “How a e Russian ene gy policies o mula ed? Linking he ac o s and s uc u es o ene gy policy.” In Russia’s Ene gy Policies: Na ional, In e egional and Global Le els, edi ed by P. Aal o. Chel enham: Edwa d Elga , 20–44. Acke mann, Raine . 2014. “Gas C isis: 2006, 2009…2015?.” The Budapes Times. July 18. Accessed Janua y 9, 2016. h p://budapes imes-a chi .bz .hu/2014/07/18/gas-c isis-2006-2009-2015/ Akimo, Minna. 2017. “Fenno oiman u allisuuskul uu ia sel i ää ny myös VTT (Fenno oima’s Sa e y Cul u e Now o Be Examined by VTT).” Kale a. Accessed July 6, 2017. h p://www. kale a. i/uu ise / alous/ enno oiman- u allisuuskul uu ia-sel i aa-ny -myos- /752607/ Ámon, Ada, and And ás Deák. 2015. “Hunga y and Russia in Economic Te ms – Lo e, Business, Bo h o Nei he ?” Accessed Janua y 9, 2016. h p:// eal.m ak.hu/33228/1/Amon_Deak_ Hunga y_and_Russia.._u.pd 416 P. AALTO ET AL. Sunell, Milka. 2004. “Suomalainen Ydin oimapoikkeus [The Finnish Nuclea Excep ion].” In Ydin oima, al a ja as a in a [Nuclea Powe , Powe and Resis ance], edi ed by Ma i Kojo, 179–207. Helsinki: Like. Sy jämäki, Eija, Ma i Kojo, and Tapio Li manen. 2015. “Muu unu hanke: Fenno oiman ydin oimalahankkeen YVA-yleisö ilaisuude Pyhäjoella uosina 2013-2014 [The Changed P ojec : The Public Mee ings o EIA ega ding he Fenno oima Nuclea Powe Plan in Pyhäjoki in 2013–2014).” YFI julkaisuja 2, Jy äskylän yliopis o, Jy äskylä. Accessed Janua y 29, 2016. h p://u n. i/URN:ISBN:978-951-39-6246-3 Talus, Kim. 2013. EU Ene gy Law and Policy: A C i ical Accoun . Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess. Than, K isz ina. 2015. “Special Repo : Inside Hunga y’s $10.8 Billion Nuclea Deal wi h Russia.” Reu e s. Ma ch 30. Accessed Ap il 21, 2016. h p://www. eu e s.com/a icle/us- ussia-eu ope- hunga y-special epo -idUSKBN0MQ0MP20150330 The Council o S a e. 2014. “M 6/2014 p Val ioneu os on pe iaa epää ös 18. päi änä syyskuu a 2014 ydin oimalai oksen aken amises a [The Decision in P inciple by he Council o S a e on 18 Sep embe 2014 on Building he Nuclea Powe Plan ].” Accessed Augus 17, 2016. h ps:// www.eduskun a. i/FI/ aski/Documen s/m_6±2014.pd Tibo , Nagy A ila. 2014. “Paks II a pa lamen ben [Paks II in he Pa liamen ].” Mel ányosság poli ika elemzö közpon . Accessed Janua y 12, 2016. h p://mel anyossag.hu/con en / iles/Paks%20 II.%20a%20pa lamen ben.pd Tikkala, Hannu. 2016. “Mi en Sosno yi Bo in kuninkaas a uli Fenno oiman pääu akoi sija? Taus alla ää inkäy ösepäilyjä ja maksu aikeuksia [How Did he King o Sosno yi Bo Became he Main Con ac o o Fenno oima? In he Backg ound Suspicions o Co up ion and Financial Di icul ies].” Yle. Ap il 10. Accessed Ap il 10, 2016. h ps://yle. i/uu ise /3-8779301 Tilas okeskus. 2016. “Tilas o : Ene gia: Tilas okeskuksen PX-Web- ie okanna [S a is ics: Ene gy: PX-Web Da abases o S a is ics Finland].” Accessed Augus 26, 2016. h p://pxne 2.s a . i/ PXWeb/pxweb/ i/S a Fin/S a Fin__ene__ehk/? ablelis = ue& xid=e59 a7e6- ca4-4a42- bcdd-5c 70868c1d8 Ti an-2. 2015. “The B idge o F iendship.” Accessed Augus 12, 2017. h p://www. i an2. u/en/ media-p ess/len a-no os ej/358- he-b idge-o - iendship Ti an-2. 2016. “TITAN-2 in Hanhiki i 1 NPP P ojec ’, P esen a ion, 25.8.2016.” Accessed June 9, 2017. h ps://www.lisaakauppaa. i/ ile/download& ile_id=187/ Toi onen, Janne. 2016. “S uk: Fenno oiman yön ekijöi ä on painos e u ja sa us e u ulos – Vaiku aako ydin u allisuu een? [(S uk: Fenno oima S a Has Been Pu unde P essu e and Fo ced ou – Impac s on Nuclea Sa e y?].” Yle. Augus 15. Accessed Augus 17, 2016. h p://yle. i/uu ise /s uk_ enno oiman_ yon ekijoi a_on_painos e u_ja_sa us e u_ulos__ aiku aako_ydin u allisuu een/9095824? e =leiki-uup Vehkaoja, Mikael. 2014. “Seu an gallup: Kansa o aisi Fenno oimas a aikalisän [Opinion Poll by Seu a: Ci izens Would like o Call o a Suspension o Fenno oima].” Seu a. Augus 27. Accessed Augus 17, 2016. h p://seu a. i/puheenaihe/seu an-gallup-kansa-o aisi- enno oimas a- aikalisan/ Vlček, Tomas. 2016. “C i ical Assessmen o Di e si ica ion o Nuclea Fuel o he Ope a ing VVER Reac o s in he EU.” Ene gy S a egy Re iews 13-14 (14): 77–85. WNA (Wo ld Nuclea Associa ion). 2015. “Nuclea Powe in Russia.” Wo ld Nuclea Associa ion. Accessed Augus 19, 2015. h p://www.wo ld-nuclea .o g/in o/Coun y-P o iles/Coun ies- O-S/Russia–Nuclea -Powe / WNA (Wo ld Nuclea Associa ion). 2016. “Nuclea Powe in he Eu opean Union.” Wo ld Nuclea Associa ion. Accessed Oc obe 8, 2016. h p://www.wo ld-nuclea .o g/in o ma ion-lib a y/ coun y-p o iles/o he s/eu opean-union.aspx EURASIAN GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS 417 WNA (Wo ld Nuclea Associa ion). 2017. “Nuclea Powe in Hunga y.” Accessed June 2, 2017. h p://www.wo ld-nuclea .o g/in o ma ion-lib a y/coun y-p o iles/coun ies-g-n/hunga y. aspx WNN (Wo ld Nuclea News). 2014. “Rosa om G oups Enginee ing Expe ise.” Wo ld Nuclea News. Accessed Ap il 18, 2016. h p://www.wo ld-nuclea -news.o g/C-Rosa om-g oups- enginee ing-di ision-22101401.h ml Tass. 2014. “Finland Does No Plan o Gi e up Cons uc ion o Nuclea Plan in Conjunc ion wi h Rosa om.” Russian News Agency. Accessed Ap il 26, 2016. h p:// ass. u/en/economy/749548 Ylönen, Ma ja, Tapio Li manen, Ma i Kojo, and Pi i a Lindell. 2015. “(De)Poli icisa ion o Nuclea Powe : The Finnish Discussion a e Fukushima.” Public Unde s anding o Science 26: 260–274. doi:10.1177/0963662515613678.