Finland's energy system for 2030 as envisaged by expert stakeholders

Finland's ene gy sys em o 2030 as en isaged by expe s akeholde s Pasi Toi anen a , Pinja Leh onen a , Pami Aal o a , * , Tomas Bj€ o kq is b , Pe i J€ a en aus a c , Sa ah Kilpel€ ainen a , Ma i Kojo a , Fanni Myll€ a i d a Facul y o Managemen /Poli ics, Uni e si y o Tampe e, Finland b Labo a o y o Au oma ion and Hyd aulic Enginee ing, Tampe e Uni e si y o Technology, Finland c Labo a o y o Elec ical Ene gy Enginee ing, Tampe e Uni e si y o Technology, Finland d Labo a o y o Physics, Tampe e Uni e si y o Technology, Finland a icle in o A icle his o y: Recei ed 15 May 2017 Recei ed in e ised o m 10 Augus 2017 Accep ed 12 Sep embe 2017 Keywo ds: Ene gy s a egy Deca boniza ion Finland S akeholde Q me hodology abs ac To each he 2030 deca boniza ion a ge s, EU Membe S a es de elop na ional s a egies. We examine he iews o key s akeholde s in Finland o ou line how hose esponsible o de eloping, s ee ing and implemen ing he ene gy sys em assess he a ious solu ions. The Finnish choices a e o in e es owing o he mix u e o asse s, cons ain s and pa h-dependencies shaping hem. Ou Q me hodological analysis unco e s h ee main iews: in e na ional compe i ion and sma solu ions; ac i e consume s; na ional compe i i eness and local solu ions alongside a consensus upon which he implemen a ion o Finland's own 2030 s a egy can be buil . The key s akeholde s in Finland a e eady o solu ions comp ehensi ely shaping he ene gy sys em, which can also influence se e al es ed in e es s, exis ing business models and e en ually b eak exis ing pa h-dependencies. ©2017 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 1. In oduc ion The Membe S a es o he Eu opean Union (EU) ha e ag eed on se e al ene gy s a egy a ge s o 2030, including a 27% inc ease in ene gy e ficiency, a 27% sha e o enewables and a 40% educ ion in g eenhouse gas emissions. To help each hese a - ge s on he Union le el, he Membe S a es p epa e hei own na ional plans o he Eu opean Commission [1].TheMembe S a es also commi o such planning and moni o ing p ocesses coo dina ed by he Commission in p epa a ion o he Ene gy Union [2]. The a ge s o 2030 ep esen a s ep owa ds a mo e esou ce e ec i e and deca bonized ene gy sys em, implying no only a echnological ansi ion bu also p o ound economic and social ans o ma ions [3]. This means ha many s akeholde s wi h es ablished in e es s in he economy and socie y will be a ec ed. Since i is ealis ic o expec ha he ansi ion will be mo e suc- cess ul i i se es hese in e es s, he way in which he s ake- holde s in ol ed en ision he p ocess eally ma e s. Which solu ions o p io i ize is- a- is he p oduc ion, ne wo k and consump ion sec o s? How o combine hese solu ions and, e en- ually, suppo he ealisa ion o he s a egic a ge s se o 2030? In his a icle, we examine how he key expe s akeholde s o he elec ic ene gy sys em in Finland en ision he solu ions o he 2030s. Ou ocus on he case o Finland is imely; i eminds us how e en Membe S a es wi h conside able asse s suppo ing he en- e gy ansi ion simul aneously ace significan cons ain s and pa h-dependencies s anding in he way, some o which ela e o s akeholde s. 1.1. Finland's ene gy sys em in 2030: asse s, cons ain s and pa h- dependencies On he one hand, he asse base o Finland's ene gy sys em in- cludes a high sha e o ca bon neu al p oduc ion, i.e. enewable ene gy sou ces (RES) such as hyd opowe , a ious ypes o biomass, wind and some sola powe po en ial, as well as nuclea powe . The sha e o RES is oughly speaking wice he EU a e age. In 2015, RES in Finland co e ed an es ima ed 39% o final ene gy consump ion. In elec ici y p oduc ion he sha e o RES was 45% wi h nuclea powe accoun ing o an addi ional 33% o low-ca bon p oduc ion [4]. The 2030 ene gy s a egy o he Go e nmen o Finland, pub- lished in No embe 2016 as an inpu o he Union le el planning, a ge s an o e 50% sha e o enewables in he final consump ion o *Co esponding au ho . E-mail add ess: pami.aal o@u a.fi(P. Aal o). Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec Ene gy S a egy Re iews jou nal homepage: www.ees.else ie .com/es h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.es .2017.09.007 2211-467X/©2017 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Ene gy S a egy Re iews 18 (2017) 150e156 ene gy. C oss-bo de ansmission ne wo ks link he Finnish elec- ic ene gy sys em o he No d Pool elec ici y ma ke , whe e wo hi ds o he elec ici y aded is om RES, consis ing mainly o No wegian and Swedish hyd opowe bu inc easingly also o Danish and Swedish wind powe . In he consump ion sec o , Fin- land's new 2030 s a egy a ge s a 30% sha e o bio uels in oad anspo , eflec ing he asse base o he coun y's o es y in- dus y [5]. On he o he hand, Finland emains a ela i ely ene gy in ensi e economy. The a io be ween g oss inland ene gy consump ion and GDP a exceeds he le els o he o he No dic s a es excep o Iceland, which has a la ge geo he mal powe ed aluminium in- dus y. In he EU, his pu s Finland in o he same g oup as he eas and cen al Eu opean Membe S a es [6]. The high ene gy in ensi y is a ibu able o Finland's expo -o ien ed o es y, me al, ma- chine y and shipbuilding indus ies, long dis ances wi hin he coun y, spa se and une enly dis ibu ed popula ion and ela i ely low empe a u es in win e . The s uc u e o he Finnish economy he e o e gene a es a ma ked in e es in ene gy supply on he pa o he indus ial and anspo sec o s as well as he building s ock, esul ing in some powe ul pa h-dependencies. 1 One such example is he high sha e o nuclea powe , which is se o inc ease owa ds he 2030s, eflec ing he in e es s o indus y o a s able supply o base-load powe [8]. The Commission's 2016 p oposal o Finland o a 39% emissions educ ion a ge in he non-emission ade sec o s, made as pa o he Union's 2030 planning, also cu s in o such exis ing pa hs. The Con ede a ion o Finnish Indus ies c i icized he esul ing p essu es on anspo cos s and on he use o oil in anspo in pa icula , and he Cen al Union o Ag icul u al P o- duce s and Fo es Owne s o mo ing p oduc ion ou o he coun y [9]. Gi en his cons ella ion o asse s, cons ain s and pa h- dependencies, he Go e nmen 's ene gy policy a ge s in he 2030 ene gy s a egy emain mo e cau ious han hose o i s No dic neighbou s, e en hough he No dic s a es join ly s i e o de- ca bonize he ene gy sys em by 2050 [10] (Table 1). Ye Finland's 2030 s a egy clea ly depa s om he coun y's p e ious policies, which p io i ized he p oduc ion sec o o he ene gy sys em in he in e es s o he ene gy in ensi e indus ies [5,11]. The new 2030 s a egy mo es owa ds a mo e holis ic unde s anding o he sys- em by discussing pa ial solu ions o deca boniza ion in he sec- o s o sma ne wo ks and anspo , he benefi s o imp o ing flexibili y and by no ing he p ospec s o in ol ing ene gy con- sume s and ci izens in he ansi ion [5]. 1.2. The impo ance o s akeholde iews E en hough we acknowledge ha se e al isions may ul i- ma ely lead o simila ou comes [13], we p opose ha he imple- men a ion o any ision will benefi om ag eemen among s akeholde s. Fu he mo e, because he 2030 s a egy is a guideline documen no s ic ly p io i izing any possible solu ions, i is use ul o know how hose esponsible o de eloping, s ee ing and implemen ing he sys em assess he a ious solu ions is- a- is each o he . In he nex sec ion we in oduce Q me hodology as a ool enabling us o sys ema ically unco e and compa e he iews o s akeholde s. The esul s sec ion p esen s h ee di e en iews eme ging om he analysis. Ou discussion elabo a es he a eas o consensus upon which he implemen a ion o he 2030 s a egy could be buil . 2. Resea ch design and me hods: do he key s akeholde s sha e he same ision? 2.1. Exis ing s udies Exis ing s udies on s akeholde s ha e mos ly used in e iews. They ag ee ha expe s a e c ucial o he o ma ion o Finnish ene gy policies. Al hough in he pas decade he ci cle o key s akeholde expe s has widened owa ds he expanding RES and nuclea powe sec o s [11], i ne e heless emains na ow [14]. Simul aneously s akeholde s' iews ega ding RES depend on he in e es s hey ep esen [15]. A su ey among ene gy expe s and decision-make s ound suppo o a ma ke d i en ene gy ansi- ion whe e RES subsidies could con inue un il he 2020s i hey we e echnology neu al, while opinions di e ged ega ding ca- paci y paymen s. The same expe s wan ed o main ain he coun- y's s eng hs in combined hea and powe (CHP) [16]. Ye we lack in o ma ion on how key s akeholde s iew he ull spec um o solu ions. 2.2. How o sys ema ically compa e s akeholde s' iews? We use Q me hodology o conduc a sys ema ic compa ison o he iews o key expe s akeholde s is- a- is he Finnish ene gy sys em (17). Q me hodology combines quali a i e and quan i a i e echniques in o de o model he subjec i ely held iews o s akeholde s and build fi m ypologies o hese iews acco ding o whe e hey ag ee and disag ee [18]. Q me hodology can mo eo e unco e he ex en o consensus ha could pa e he way o widely accep ed ene gy s a egies. We asked he key s akeholde s: which solu ions should Finland p io i ize on he way owa ds a mo e esou ce e ficien and clima e neu al ene gy sys em by 2030? The fi s s ep in a s udy applying Q me hodology is o ca e ully sc u inize he ull ange o iews exp essed in he ele an deba e Table 1 Ene gy policy a ge s o Denma k, Finland, No way and Sweden. Denma k Finland No way Sweden Sha e o RES in final ene gy consump ion (2020-40) 2020: 50% o elec ici y om wind powe ; 2035: 100% o elec ici y and hea om RES 2020: 38% 2030: o e 50% (incl. pea ) 2020: 67.5% 2020: 50% (achie ed) 2040: 100% o elec ici y om RES b Na ional emissions educ ion a ge s a 2020: 40% educ ion in o al emissions s. 1990; 2050: ca bon neu ali y 2050: a leas 80% educ ion om 1990 le els 2030: ca bon neu ali y 2045: ca bon neu ali y Eu opean Commission p oposal o emissions educ ion (non-ETS) 2030: 39% 2030: 39% [2030: 40%] 2030: 40% a Includes own educ ions and o se ing wi h in e na ional in es men s. b Implies ‘a a ge , no a deadline o banning nuclea powe , no does i mean closing nuclea powe plan s h ough poli ical decisions’[12]. 1 Howe e , he ene gy in ensi e indus y has po en ial o he demand esponse needed in an ene gy sys em wi h a highe sha e o in e mi en RES, and can p ofi ably use any momen a y su plus RES [7]. P. Toi anen e al. / Ene gy S a egy Re iews 18 (2017) 150e156 151 [17]. Fo his we used epo s, s udies and scena ios on he ene gy sys em published by he key s akeholde s in he public, ene gy indus y, business and NGO sec o s. The sou ce ma e ial included he key Finnish ene gy s a egy documen s se ing a ge s o 2030 alongside simila documen s om he o he No dic coun ies and he EU, which cons i u e Finland's main e e ence g oups. Scien ific a icles and some i ems om he p ess we e also included. F om hese sou ces we ex ac ed al oge he 425 s a emen s wi h he help o a wo-dimensional heu is ic model o he deba e. The fi s dimension ocused on he h ee sec o s o he ene gy sys em (A. p oduc ion, B. ne wo k, C. consump ion). The second dimension ocused on he di e en in e es s s akeholde s may ha e ega ding he ene gy sys em in he con ex o he 2030 s a- egies as discussed abo e (a. esou ce e ficiency, b. clima e neu ali y, c. u he in e es s) (Table 2). In his way we ensu ed ha ou sample co e ed he whole ene gy sys em and included di e en ypes o s a emen s po en ially esona ing wi h he di e ing in e es s o ou s akeholde g oups [19]. By elimina ing o e lap among he s a emen s, we selec ed 48 i ems o inclusion in o he final Q sample, which ep esen s equally all cells o he model (Aa, Ab, e c.). The final s a emen s we e sligh ly edi ed wi h he help o an in e disciplina y expe wo kshop o ensu e hei ele ance o he s akeholde s as well as he app op ia e scope. To ep esen he key expe s akeholde s, we selec ed 24 e- sponden s om he Finnish ene gy companies, ene gy business lobbies, he public sec o and NGOs. This no mally yields a su fi- cien numbe in an in ensi e me hod such as Q and co e s well he main in e es s shaping he Finnish ene gy deba e (see Table 3). In ace- o- ace in e iews he esponden s a anged he se o 48 s a emen s p in ed on ca ds in o a Q so ing g id (Fig. 1). The in- s uc ion was o place one ca d in each cell in o de o ep esen he iews held by he esponden 's o ganiza ion. The s a emen s mos compa ible wi h he iews o he o ganiza ion we e placed in column þ5, and he leas compa ible in column 5. I a s a emen was placed in he middle sec ion o he Q so ing g id (i.e. a ound he 0-column), i was assumed ha he o ganiza ion did no ha e a clea iew on he issue o conside ed he heme no o be salien . The esponden s in e p e ed he s a emen s in ligh o hei own backg ound knowledge. They we e also encou aged o discuss he specific con en o a pa icula s a emen i hey so desi ed. In his way he esea che g oup could enhance he alidi y o he in e - p e a ion o esul s. A e he so ing was comple ed we conduc ed an in e iew. The Q so s esul ing om he expe imen s we e sys ema ically compa ed by means o ac o analysis. A e sc u inizing a ious ac o ial solu ions, we selec ed h ee ac o s o in e p e a ion on g ounds o su ficien esemblances among he Q so s. 2 Pa icipan s wi h a s a is ically significan loading define each o hese h ee iews (see Table 3). To suppo he in e p e a ion o he h ee iews, we also used he esponden s' answe s o ee o ma ques ions in he pos -so ing in e iews. In addi ion o he ypology o h ee iews, he analysis also e ealed a g oup o s a emen s o which all pa icipan s eac ed in a simila manne , ep esen ing a common g ound. 3. Resul s: h ee iews o he 2030 ene gy sys em 3 3.1. View I: in e na ional compe i ion and sma solu ions Hal o he esponden s, i.e. wel e, suppo he fi s iew which explains 24% o he a iance among he Q so s. The esponden s suppo ing his iew cu ac oss di e en in e es g oups as hey come om he ene gy indus y, he public sec o and NGO sec o s alike. Acco ding o View I, in e na ional ma ke s and compe i ion should de e mine he sou ces o ene gy. P oduc ion should be echnology neu al. In he in e iews, esponden s subsc ibing o his iew o en highligh ed he benefi s o in e na ional ma ke s o Finland's compe i i eness, as well as on he pu chasing powe o Finnish consume s. C oss-bo de elec ici y ade could also help o o se any upwa d p essu e on p ices. These esponden s, howe e , wan consume s o sha e he in es men cos s o low-ca bon en- e gy. Fo example, he inc easing sha e o small-scale p oduc ion o elec ici y and hea migh necessi a e e o ming he a i s uc u e o main ain su ficien in es men s in g ids and o he in as uc u e. Table 2 A heu is ic model o he 2030 ene gy deba e. Componen o he elec ic ene gy sys em In e es s is- a- is he elec ic ene gy sys em a. Resou ce e ficiency b. Clima e neu ali y c. Fu he in e es s a A. P oduc ion Aa Ab Ac B. Ne wo k Ba Bb Bc C. Consump ion Ca Cb Cc a e.g. R&D and capaci y building, ene gy ma ke de elopmen , ene gy business including i s e ec s on employmen and axa ion, ene gy e ficiency, secu i y o supply, e c.. Table 3 Responden s' ac o loadings. Responden F1 F2 F3 1. Business/in e es g oup 0.69X 0.13 0.14 2. Business/ne wo k se ices 0.51 0.49 0.11 3. Business/en i onmen 0.23 0.53X 0.07 4. Business/p oduc ion &ne wo k 0.66X 0.29 0.09 5. Business/ne wo k 0.60X 0.26 0.29 6. Public 0.68X 0.20 0.25 7. Business/R&D 0.36 0.68X 0.22 8. Business/sys em equipmen 0.52X 0.31 0.23 9. Business/ne wo k 0.61X 0.06 0.26 10. NGO/consume s 0.04 0.31 0.65X 11. Public 0.62X 0.10 0.18 12. Business/equipmen 0.30 0.13 0.65X 13. Public/business 0.70X 0.31 0.04 14. NGO/consume s 0.21 0.18 0.54X 15. Business/in e es g oup 0.68X 0.11 0.06 16. Business/p oduc ion &ne wo k 0.52X 0.19 0.24 17. Business/in e es g oup 0.54X 0.33 0.24 18. Business/in e es g oup 0.38 0.30 0.29 19. Business/in e es g oup 0.01 0.66X 0.34 20. NGO/en i onmen 0.03 0.84X 0.06 21. Business/in e es g oup 0.06 0.10 0.53X 22. NGO/en i onmen 0.16 0.82X 0.12 23. Business/in e es g oup 0.54X 0.16 0.05 24. Business/in e es g oup 0.55 0.05 0.41 X¼Responden selec ed o a ac o . C i e ia: he ac o loading mus be s a is ically significan , >0.37 (1/√48*2.58 (SE ) ¼0.37) while he nex highes loading o he same esponden on any o he ac o (s) mus be a leas <0.20 han he significan loading. 2 Taken oge he , he ac o s explained 48% o he a iance among he Q so s o he esponden s which is a me hodologically sa is ac o y esul . 3 We illus a e he esul s wi h ables indica ing he ank-o de ing alues (5 …þ5) o he s a emen s ha a e c ucial o each ac o (View). P. Toi anen e al. / Ene gy S a egy Re iews 18 (2017) 150e156152 The fi s iew also assigns impo ance o g id de elopmen o imp o e ene gy and esou ce e ficiency: he bo lenecks in he ansmission g id should be emo ed and sma g ids p omo ed. To enable a mo e esou ce e ficien sys em, he fi s iew suppo s he use o a powe -based a i s uc u e (V/kW) on he le el o dis- ibu ion ne wo ks alongside he exis ing basic a e (V/mon h) and ene gy-based a i (V/kWh). In he backg ound he e is he need o con ol peak demand si ua ions on g ounds o hei e ec s on he equi ed capaci y o powe gene a ion and he ansmission and dis ibu ion g ids [20] (Table 4). Acco ding o he fi s iew, he egula ion me hod o he ne wo k companies should p o ide incen i es o in es in new flexible sma g id solu ions alongside in es men s in he p ima y g id. Such solu ions include, o example, me e ing sys ems enabling demand esponse and au oma ion is- a- is da a collec- ion and analysis, ene gy s o ages and g ids. This iew o esees no need o al e he legal unbundling o he elec ic ene gy sys em in o p oduc ion, ne wo k and e ail; he p esen sys em does no hinde he in es men s needed in g ids. In anspo , ene gy e ficiency should be imp o ed by in eg a ing elec ic ehicles (EVs) wi h sma g ids in o de o con ol he powe loads in he g id. View I does no suppo s ong s a e managemen o Finland's u u e ene gy sys em. The e o e la ge-scale s a e-owned p oduc- ion is no a iable solu ion o gua an ee secu i y o supply. Nei he a e specific ax incen i es equi ed o ensu e he demand o enewable uels; he in es men s o he p oduce companies hemsel es should su fice. Rese a ions also p e ail ega ding suppo schemes o wind powe . The idea o phasing ou nuclea powe om he No dic g id in o de o inc ease he sha e o wind and sola powe likewise ails o ga he suppo . Ins ead, wind and sola powe should be p omo ed by acili a ing hei connec ion o he g id by means o s eamlining he in ol ed bu eauc acy. 3.2. View II: ac i e consume s Fi e o he esponden s, ep esen ing ene gy companies and NGOs, a e in a ou o he second iew, which explains 15% o he a iance among he Q so s. The esponden s suppo ing ou sec- ond iew wan o help Finnish consume s o use elec ici y p u- den ly. The e o e no specific policies o con ol any possible inc eases in elec ici y p ices a e equi ed. Nei he does his iew suppo powe -based a i s as he fi s iew does; he e o e in he u u e, oo, elec ici y p ices mus be based p ima ily on ene gy consump ion. This iew si ua es he elec ic ene gy sys em in o he in e na- ional con ex as he fi s iew does, bu simul aneously unde lines he ole o consume s and decen aliza ion in he p oduc ion o enewable ene gy. Dis ic hea ing ne wo ks should be coupled wi h decen alized enewable hea p oduc ion such as hea pumps. Wind and sola powe mus be connec ed o he g id cos - e ficien ly wi h a minimal licensing p ocess (Table 5). Acco ding o View II Finland does no need o become a sel - su ficien p oduce o ne expo e o elec ici y despi e impo - ing a fi h o i s elec ici y in 2015 [4]. Ins ead, a cos and esou ce e ficien ene gy sys em equi es he in eg a ion o local, egional and s a e-le el p oduc ion and consump ion. A he same ime Finnish socie y should be ac i e in p omo ing he low-ca bon ansi ion. Any ax-based suppo schemes o ene gy in ensi e indus ies ewhich so a p e ail in Finland eshould be adjus ed o help o minimize he clima e impac . Ca bon cap u e and s o age does no quali y as a sui able measu e o educing emissions om indus ial p ocesses. Socie y should guide he de elopmen o he anspo a ion sys em, o example h ough suppo schemes o elec ic ehicles. EVs could help o con ol powe loads in he ne wo k and unc ion as an ene gy s o age (incl. ehicle- o-g id solu ions). This iew also iden ifies sma g ids as a means o imp o e he ene gy e ficiency o he anspo a ion sys em. 3.3. View III: na ional compe i i eness and local solu ions The hi d iew explains 10% o he a iance in he Q so s and is suppo ed by ou esponden s ep esen ing o ganiza ions in all sec o s. This iew sees maximizing he use o local ene gy sou ces in ene gy p oduc ion as he op imal way o using esou ces. The use o o es -based biomass in ene gy p oduc ion should be inc eased. Vehicles using bio uels a e seen as a easible solu ion in educing he en i onmen al impac o anspo a ion. On he o he hand, emissions o pa icula e ma e om fi eplaces and s o es, bo h o which a e widesp ead in Finnish houses a e no an issue. Fu he , pu pose-buil ene gy islands ha e po en ial bo h o enhance he e ficien use o local esou ces and imp o e secu i y o supply du ing dis up ions. This means ha he egula ion on ne wo k companies should encou age coupling ene gy and powe inde- penden mic o g ids wi h he exis ing ne wo k in as uc u e. A he same ime, esponden s subsc ibing o his iew acknowledged he challenges o such policies o incumben ac o s and hei business models. Fig. 1. The Q so ing g id. Table 4 The fi s iew on he de elopmen o ene gy ma ke s and ne wo ks. S a emen Value 15. Elec ici y p oduc ion mus be based on compe i ion be ween solu ions o di e en ypes and sizes. þ5 19. The egula ion me hod o ne wo k ope a o s mus also p omo e new ypes o flexible sma g id solu ions, in addi ion o in es men s in o he p ima y ne wo k, in o de o de elop ene gy e ficiency. þ5 25. The cos o elec ici y dis ibu ion se ice mus no depend on ene gy consump ion; ins ead, he g id companies mus swi ch o using powe -based a i s uc u es. þ5 P. Toi anen e al. / Ene gy S a egy Re iews 18 (2017) 150e156 153 Like he second iew, his iew also seeks o p omo e ne ze o ene gy buildings by means o accep ing a sha e in a nea by enewable ene gy p oduc ion uni in he ene gy sel -su ficiency o buildings, unlike p esen policies which mo eo e impose dis i- bu ion a i s upon such co-ope a i e small-scale p oduc ion. The s a e should in eg a e ci izens and businesses in he p ocess o building a clima e-neu al socie y by o e ing in o ma ion on en- e gy e ficiency and clima e issues on he ime hey decide on en- e gy solu ions. View III also emphasizes na ional compe i i eness and he pu chasing powe o Finnish consume s. The u u e ene gy sys em should gua an ee easonable ene gy p ices. The e o e his iew includes an idea o p o ec ing consume s agains he possible isks in ol ed in low-ca bon ene gy solu ions. Simul aneously he coun y should aim a sel -su ficiency in elec ici y p oduc ion, and p e e ably, also a ne expo s. The na ional R&D budge should be o ien ed owa ds esou ce and ma e ial e ficien p oduc s, se ices and p ocedu es due o hei compe i i e ad an age. Flexibili y o demand is no seen as c ucial in he de elopmen o he elec ic ene gy sys em (Table 6). Acco ding o his iew, he solu ions o he p oduc ion o elec ici y should be chosen on he basis o compe i i eness in he na ional con ex . Suppo schemes o wind powe and he phasing ou o nuclea powe do no ecei e suppo . 3.4. Discussion: om common g ound o s a egy implemen a ion The common g ound iden ified o e s some s a ing poin s o making Finland's 2030 ene gy s a egy a eali y in e ms o pa ial solu ions likely o enjoy suppo om he key s akeholde s. The esponden s b oadly ag ee on six s a emen s, ega dless o which o he h ee iews hey suppo (Table 7). Fi s , he ‘pollu e pays’ p inciple should be he co ne s one o ene gy and clima e policies. Thus he di ec and indi ec suppo mechanisms o ossil uels, which by a exceed enewable suppo schemes, could g adually be lowe ed. RES subsidies, ou inely c i icised by he incumben ene gy indus y, 4 could co espondingly be adjus ed wi h RES p oduc ion becoming mo e compe i i e, which is soon o be he case o wind powe . Second, he esponden s oppose in es men s in (new) ossil uel plan s ega dless o hei po en ial benefi s in secu ing elec ici y supply du ing peak demand when low win e empe a u es p e- ail. This sugges s ha he ene gy ansi ion should e en ually also ex end o he p edominan ly ossil uel based CHP which has los i s o me compe i i eness [23]. Finland is one o he leading de- elope s o CHP in he EU. The coun y's hea y indus y and powe indus y ha e a es ed in e es in his e ec i e con e sion ech- nology ha accoun s o a qua e o he elec ici y supply [4] and h ee qua e s o dis ic hea ing. Gi en Finland's 2030 a ge s, we p opose ha some o he emaining ossil uel based CHP plan s should swi ch o co-fi ing wi h bioene gy sou ces o become pu e back-up powe uni s o o m pa o he coun y's powe ese e. E en ually, a combina ion o bioene gy plan s as well as new s o age, enewable and dis ibu ed ene gy solu ions should eplace hem. To p epa e o he g ea e in e mi ency ha will ne e he- less cha ac e ise such a sys em, we p opose new in es men in demand side managemen solu ions be e o balance p oduc ion and consump ion, as well as he g adual phasing in o powe based a i s and a wide hou ly a ia ion in p ices o be allowed in he No d Pool ma ke [20]. Thi d, he esponden s see geo he mal hea pumps as a esou ce e ec i e solu ion ega dless o he a ia ion hey cause o he po- we load in he sys em o he economic challenge hey pose o he dis ic hea ing sys em including CHP. Finland's 2030 ene gy s a egy does no p opose any measu es is- a- is geo he mal hea pumps, al hough hey may numbe o e 300,000 uni s by 2020 in a coun y o fi e million people [24]. The 2017 uling o he Sup eme Adminis a i e Cou allows ins alling high capaci y geo he mal hea pumps ewhich would no equi e ex a hea ing wi h elec- ici y om he ne wo k e en in win e - ime ein a eas whe e he ci y plan o he wise obliges connec ing o he dis ic hea ing ne wo k. To u he incen i ize he ins alla ion o such hea pumps, and o minimize hei impac on he powe load du ing he peak hou s, we he e also p opose he in oduc ion o powe -based a i s. Fou h, he esponden s do no see unde g ound cabling as he only solu ion o imp o e eliabili y in he ace o i ually annual wea he -induced dis up ions, al hough Finland's elec ici y ma ke legisla ion p ac ically expec s dis ibu ion sys em ope a o s (DSOs) o swi ch o i . We suppo legisla i e changes o modi y his equi emen o DSOs. Especially when implemen ed in spa sely popula ed a eas, i esul s in unnecessa ily high ne wo k a i s o all cus ome s o he DSO. Fu he mo e, i is no always he mos esou ce e ec i e solu ion when compa ed o he po en ial benefi s o incen i izing mic o-g id solu ions in such a eas. By swi ching o locally a ailable esou ces and ese e powe solu ions such as ba e ies and uel cells du ing dis up ions, mic o-g ids would Table 5 The second iew on combining c oss-bo de and local esou ces. S a emen Value 14. Consume s mus be encou aged o become small-scale p oduce s o enewable elec ici y. þ3 20. The bo lenecks in he elec ici y ansmission g id mus be emo ed by connec ing he p oduc ion esou ces o consump ion bo h on he s a e and egional le els, because i is ene gy and cos e ficien . þ5 24. The dis ic hea ing ne wo ks mus accep enewably gene a ed hea , such as geo he mal hea , ha has been p oduced in a decen alized manne . þ4 Table 6 The hi d iew on local and egional solu ions. S a emen Value 13. Ou coun y mus be a leas sel -su ficien in p oducing elec ici y and p e e ably a ne elec ici y expo e . þ3 31. The egula ion me hod o ne wo k companies mus p omo e he de elopmen o mic og ids ha a e ene gy and powe independen , o unc ion as pa s o he dis ibu ion ne wo k in as uc u e. þ4 32. The po en ial o ene gy islands in using local esou ces e ficien ly and imp o ing he secu i y o supply is- a- is dis up ions mus be explo ed and es ed. þ5 4 The ‘en i onmen ally ha m ul’subsidies on he ene gy sec o alone amoun annually o some 800 million eu os, alongside subsidies o he use o ossil uels in he anspo sec o [21]. The 2016 budge o he Go e nmen o Finland ese ed 234.6 million eu os o suppo RES p oduc ion, 75 million o in es men s, 55 million o sus ainabili y in o es y and 7 million in ag icul u e, and 2 million o ene gy e ficiency imp o emen s [22]. P. Toi anen e al. / Ene gy S a egy Re iews 18 (2017) 150e156154 suppo a common in e es in inc easing he esilience o he sys- em as a whole. This would also o e al e na i e business models o DSOs and eme ging ac o s. In line wi h he 2030 ene gy s a - egy, i would empowe ci izens. Fi h, he esponden s wish o allow DSOs o use ene gy s o age as a pa o hei business. This is cu en ly no allowed in Finland, and EU Membe S a es di e g ea ly in how hey egula e his issue wi hin he bounds o he EU unbundling egula ion [25]. The Commission's win e package o 2016 seeks o confine ene gy s o age o a business o se ice p o ide s. DSOs could own s o age only i he e a e no such in e es ed se ice p o ide s o a specific ins alla ion [26]. Eu opean DSOs p opose a simple p ocedu e o de e mining his wi hou manda o y ende ing, and, when easible, allowing hem o own s o age o ‘ope a e and plan hei ne wo ks ”flexibly”’. Tha ou esponden s would p obably p e e such an ‘ac i e DSO model’ o find suppo on he EU le el, is explicable in e ms o he pe cei ed na ional compe i i e ad an age in he sec o o sma ne wo ks, equen ly men ioned by ou esponden s wi h e e ence o he coun y's expo po en ial. 5 Should he Commis- sion's posi ion p e ail, we sugges ha he cos s o pu chasing s o age se ices should no be ea ed as ope a i e cos s subjec o a s eamlining obliga ion, as he cu en Finnish ne wo k business egula ion model does, bu ha hey be ea ed on pa wi h o he ne wo k in es men s. Six h, he esponden s would no p io i ize na u al gas as a ansi ion uel as do some Finnish analys s and exis ing s udies [27,28]. On his poin , he esponden s men ioned in he in e iews he poli ical and in as uc u al cons ain s o na u al gas in Finland. Poli ically, i is p ima ily a Russian impo , while he 2030 ene gy s a egy seeks o inc ease sel -su ficiency o 55% o he final consump ion o ene gy (excluding domes ically p oduced nuclea powe ). In e ms o in as uc u e, he fi s liquefied na u al gas e minals a e only en e ing he ma ke . The Bal icconnec o pipe- line, which would e en ually acili a e opening a connec ion o he cen al Eu opean ma ke s, is only in he planning phase. O he gas- based solu ions (e.g. biogas in anspo and powe - o-gas ech- nologies) appea p omising o ou esponden s. Al hough hey do no see biogas as decisi e o he whole ene gy sys em, we ecommend he implemen a ion o he 2030 s a egy o include a specific a ge o biogas fi ed ehicles alongside he a ge o 50,000 gas-fi ed ehicles by 2030 [5]. Biogas can o e mo e esou ce e ec i e and clima e neu al solu ions including imp o ed ai quali y when compa ed o he planned inc ease in bio uels, some o which would be o es -based. The a ge o he 2030 s a egy o expanding he use o o es -based biomass could significan ly educe Finland's o es ca bon sink because o he esul ing one- hi d inc ease in annual ha es s [29,30]. 4. Conclusion Ou Q me hodological analysis shows ha Finnish key expe s akeholde s and he o ganiza ions hey ep esen s and fi mly behind he o e all goal o deca boniza ion o he ene gy sys em as mani es ed in EU and na ional le el 2030 s a egies. This will significan ly influence some o he es ed in e es s o incumben ac o s as well as exis ing business models, and hence, e en ually, b eak some o he exis ing pa h-dependencies. Howe e , we ound some di e ences o emphasis ega ding how o implemen he ansi ion and epo ed hese di e ences in he o m o a ypology o h ee iews. Each iew ecei es suppo om se e al sec o s. This shows ha he field o Finnish key s akeholde s is no deeply di ided in o sepa a e camps, which is p omising ega ding he p ospec s o implemen a ion. The di e ences be ween he iews pe ain o he ex en o which hey suppo in e na ional o na ional elec ici y ma ke s, and he ole hey p e e o assign o o s a e le el go e nance. View Ip io i izes an in e na ional, ma ke d i en sys em based on sma g ids and he e ec i e managemen o loads wi hin i . View II likewise has an in e na ional ou look bu p e e s o ha e socie y assume a g ea e ole in o de o minimize he clima e impac o he ene gy sys em. I u he mo e wishes o empowe and incen i ize consume s o ac i ely conse e ene gy, and pa e he way o decen aliza ion. While hese wo iews ne e heless alue he supply o a o dably p iced elec ici y h ough he expanding No d Pool ade, View III accen ua es how locally a ailable enewables a o d highe sel -su ficiency and may e en ually make Finland a ne expo e o elec ici y, allegedly s eng hening he compe i- i eness o he coun y. The di e en me hods o gene a ing elec- ici y should, acco ding o he hi d iew, ely on local esou ces and compe e na ionally wi hou unnecessa y s a e egula ion. Concomi an ly ou analysis e eals a common g ound on which he implemen a ion o Finland's 2030 ene gy s a egy can build. Because he pollu e should pay, we p opose g adually phasing ou he di ec and indi ec suppo mechanisms o ossil uels. We suppo he g adual in oduc ion o powe -based a i s o p epa e o he e en ual in e mi ency e ec s o a g ea e amoun o RES, including ossil uel ee back-up and ese e powe . Powe -based a i s would also encou age he ins alla ion o high capaci y hea pumps no equi ing buildings o ely on ex a hea ing wi h elec- ici y om he ne wo k e en in win e ime. Ne wo k ope a o s should be allowed cos -e ec i e access o s o age in he in e es s o expe imen ing wi h he ‘ac i e DSO’model. They should also be encou aged o explo e mic o-g id solu ions in spa sely popula ed Table 7 The common g ound. S a emen Value VI V II V III 11. The pollu e pays p inciple mus ac as he co ne s one o ene gy and clima e policy in o de o educe emissions. þ3þ5þ4 12. In es men s in ossil uel powe plan s mus be suppo ed by he same ma ke mechanisms as he p oduc ion o enewable and low-ca bon ene gy, so ha p oduc ion can be ensu ed du ing bo h no mal and peak hou s. 455 21. The benefi s o geo- he mal hea pumps in he e ficien use o esou ces mus be ques ioned, because hey inc ease he use o elec ici y and endange he u u e o he exis ing dis ic hea ing ne wo k. 444 28. Unde g ound cabling is wea he p oo and as such he only solu ion o ensu ing he secu i y o supply o he ne wo k. 323 18. Ne wo k ope a o s mus ha e he possibili y o using ene gy s o ages as a pa o g id ope a ions. þ2þ2þ4 5. The use o na u al gas o p oduce elec ici y and hea mus be ensu ed du ing he ansi ion owa ds lowe -emission echnologies. 244 5 Ye he Finnish hopes in his espec a e ha dly unique; each o he No dic coun ies seeks o en e he global clean ech ma ke [31]. Ye his is in e es ing as he deca boniza ion a ge s o he EU may enable coun ies de ached om he global ossil uels business o assume significan sha es o he eme ging ene gy echnology ma ke e en hough he ene gy sec o o e all becomes mo e local and egional. P. Toi anen e al. / Ene gy S a egy Re iews 18 (2017) 150e156 155 a eas as al e na i es o unde g ound cabling. This would o e new business models, inc ease he esilience o he whole sys em, lowe dis ibu ion a i s and empowe ci izens. Finally, he esponden s' eme ging in e es in biogas could be suppo ed by in oducing a specific a ge o biogas-fi ed ehicles in he in e es s o mo e esou ce e ec i e and clima e neu al anspo . Acknowledgemen s This wo k was suppo ed by he S a egic Resea ch Council conso ium ‘T ansi ion o a Resou ce E ficien and Clima e Neu al Elec ici y Sys em (EL-TRAN)’(2015-17, no. 293437). We wish o hank all he conso ium membe s, and especially Ma ika Hak- ka ainen, Pi kko Ha sia, Hannele Hol inen, Ja i Ihonen, Iida Jaak- kola, Ka i Kallioha ju, Timo Ko pela, Anna M. Oksa and Topi R€ onkk€ o o in aluable help in designing and implemen ing he s udy. Re e ences [1] Eu opean Commission, A Policy F amewo k o Clima e and Ene gy in he Pe iod om 2020 o 2030, B ussels, 22.1.2014, COM(2014) 15 final <h p:// eu -lex.eu opa.eu/legal-con en /EN/TXT/PDF/?u i¼CELEX: 52014DC0015& om¼EN >(Accessed 18 Janua y 2017). [2] Eu opean Commission, Ene gy Union Package: a F amewo k S a egy o a Resilien Ene gy Union wi h a Fo wa d-looking Clima e Change Policy, B us- sels, 25.2.2015, COM(2015) 80 final h ps://ec.eu opa.eu/ene gy/si es/ene / files/publica ion/FOR%20WEB%20ene gyunion_wi h%20_annex_en.pd (Accessed 18 Janua y 2016). [3] R. Fouque , P.J.G. Pea son, Pas and p ospec i e ene gy ansi ions: insigh s om his o y, Ene gy Policy 50 (2012) 1e7. 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