Leadership for a Pluralistic Order? Assessing BRICS and Development Finance

301 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance CHAPTER 16 Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance MARKO JUUTINEN Takeaways o Leading Change The chap e discusses change on he mac o le el o he eme ging wo ld o de h ough an analysis o BRICS de elopmen inance. I discusses BRICS as a new agen in global a ai s, which esponds o he leade ship demands o a changing wo ld o de . De ined by plu alism and dispe sion o powe , he eme ging wo ld o de necessi a es a o m o agency wi h a highe ole ance o di e ence. The ocus o his chap e is on de elopmen . I seeks o assess BRICS agency pa icula ly in his con ex h ough wo compe ing hypo heses – BRICS as a challenge and BRICS as a cons uc i e leade o change. The chap e i s p esen s a c i ical pe spec i e o de elopmen , hen e iews schola ly pe cep ions and empi ical e idence on BRICS. I concludes wi h a discussion on he hypo heses. Adop ing a linea pe spec i e o change, he chap e discusses he challenge o he BRICS o o hodox de elopmen inance, and sees no e idence o a challenge. Howe e , he non-linea app oach o change p o ides mo e nuanced insigh s in o he agency and leade ship ole o he BRICS. 302 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance I n e na ional a ai s a e unde going signi ican changes. On one hand, he US has los i s p edominan posi ion in global go e nance. While s ill powe ul, i is unable o in luence decisi ely in e na ional o ganisa ions. A he same ime, he in luence o ising powe s and he long-excluded majo i ies o he Global Sou h has inc eased. Because o his ensuing cacophony o a g owingly plu alis ic wo ld o de , global go e nance on mul ila e al le el, like he Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO), has been c ippled wi h in e na ional coope a ion shi ing o egional and in a- egional g oupings. Consequen ly, in e na ional a ai s a e inc easingly cha ac e ised by agmen a ion, plu alism, and compe i ion. As a new ins i u ion o in a- egional and eme ging powe coope a ion, BRICS p esen s us wi h a case s udy in o hese ans o ma ions. A e hese changes making he wo ld less go e nable and mo e con lic -p one? O is go e nance jus aking new o ms o be e e lec he inhe en plu alism o he wo ld? Acco ding o Ami a Acha ya (2016), agmen a ion o go e nance does no necessa ily imply he end o go e nabili y and coope a ion. In ac , he a gues ha agmen a ion and plu alism migh be a means o be e leade ship, mo e c ea i e and esponsi e o pa icula con ex s and special needs. This chap e p esen s a case s udy on BRICS, ounded in 2009 by B azil, Russia, India, and China and joined by Sou h A ica in 2011. The pu pose o his chap e is o examine how his new ini ia i e ela es o global go e nance and leade ship. This boils down o he ques ion abou BRICS’ agency: wha kind o agen is i ? Two compe ing hypo heses ame his wo k: 1. BRICS is a challenge 2. BRICS is a cons uc i e leade o change? The i s hypo hesis de i es om he BRICS challenge heo y, which p oposes ha BRICS seeks o challenge he cu en sys em and he e o e p omo es ins abili y in global go e nance. This hypo hesis de ines he ela ion o new in e na ional o ganisa ions o global go e nance in e ms o linea change. The al e na i e hypo hesis is based on a non-linea unde s anding o change, a key heme explo ed in his book. F om a non-linea pe spec i e, change may be concei ed o as an inhe en ly open p ocess mo e akin o The pu pose o his chap e is o examine how he BRICS ini ia i e ela es o global go e nance and leade ship. 303 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance c ea i e chaos han planned ha mony. Change is no me ely a eac ion o some hing o a logical ou come o p eceding causes. Ins ead, changes occu in con ex s whe e inpu ac o s a e uncon ollable, unknown and andom. In an inc easingly plu alis ic wo ld o de , whe e dispe sion and mul iplica ion o poli ical agency, au ho i y and knowledge ha e b oken linea con inui ies be ween hem, he non-linea pe spec i e o e s a complemen a y way o unde s and change. Indeed, linea pe spec i es p esuppose con inui y whe e i does no necessa ily exis . This makes i di icul o ecognise changes ha come, so o speak, om ou side he box. The second hypo hesis is ha BRICS is a cons uc i e o ce in global a ai s. F om his pe spec i e, BRICS is a esponse o o e lec i e o he eme ging plu alis ic wo ld o de . I can be analysed as a space make o new al e na i es o go e nance, p omo ion o plu alism as well as leade ship in di used powe sys em. The pa icula ocus o his chap e is on BRICS de elopmen inance ini ia i es. I sheds ligh on BRICS’s ela ion o de elopmen bo h as a pa adigm and p ac ice. To he ex en ha BRICS c ea es space o new de elopmen p ac ices and pa adigm, and o he ex en i akes leade ship in sol ing de elopmen issues, i dese es he label o a cons uc i e leade o change. The chap e is o ganised as ollows. The i s sec ion discusses de elopmen as a pa adigm applied by in e na ional inancial ins i u ions, he Wo ld Bank and he In e na ional Mone a y Fund. The second sec ion discusses cu en deba es and pe cep ions o BRICS and de ails he wo hypo heses o he case s udy. The hi d sec ion p esen s an empi ical analysis o BRICS de elopmen inance ini ia i es, es ablishing he di e ences be ween BRICS ins i u ions and he dominan mul ila e al inancial ins i u ions. I a gues ha while BRICS can only wi h di icul y be seen as a p omo e o al e na i e de elopmen inance, i is none heless opening up a space o e hinking and un hinking he p edominan ideas and p ac ices o de elopmen inance. P oblema ising he O hodoxy o De elopmen The concep o de elopmen means e olu ion in a s a e o being o a g adual ise om being unde de eloped o being de eloped. The concep 304 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance is desc ip i e in he sense ha i e e s o a p ocess o becoming some hing. While he e is no s ic classi ica ion o de eloped coun ies, his g oup o coun ies includes he usual suspec s: he US, Canada, mos o Wes e n and all o No he n Eu ope, Aus alia, Sou h Ko ea, Swi ze land, and Is ael. All hese coun ies a e libe al democ acies. Acco ding o some schola s (e.g., Fe guson, 2011; Fukuyama, 1992), i is he p ac ice o ee ma ke s, compe i ion and indi iduali y ha de ines libe al democ acies and explains hei ad ancemen . Libe al democ acies, acco ding o his iew, ha e ound he pa adigm and he o mula o de elopmen . In his sense, de elopmen can be amed as a no ma i e concep . F om an epis emological s andpoin , de elopmen is like any o he no ma i e concep : i is o a undamen ally subjec i e na u e. The e is no God o de elopmen – seen and hea d by all o humani y – who could lay down, explain and each he pa adigm o de elopmen . F om a philosophical s andpoin , de elopmen is a plu alis concep . While i s ac ual o m and subs ance a ies om place o place, om people o people, no one can claim uni e sali y o hei subjec i e ideas. None heless, de elopmen has i s high p ies s and a mies, like mos o he subjec i e u hs o poli ical impo ance. Indeed, i was no so long ago ha he Washing on- based in e na ional inancial ins i u ions (IFIs), he Wo ld Bank G oup and he In e na ional Mone a y Fund (IMF), domina ed he poli ics o de elopmen . The o hodoxy which eme ged om hese ins i u ions was he idea ha ma ke o ces we e he bes mechanism o de elopmen . This is usually e e ed o as he Washing on Consensus o ee ma ke undamen alism (e.g., S igli z, 2002). This o hodoxy o de elopmen was based on he idea ha p i a e ma ke o ces we e he bes a ailable mechanism o de elopmen and ha he s a e o being de eloped was equi alen o an un e e ed ma ke economy. I was no me ely an ideology. I was a poli ical p ac ice by in e na ional inancial ins i u ions inancing de elopmen p ojec s expec ed o s ep in when s a es need inancial assis ance (ac ing, o example, as a lende o las eso ). In p ac ice, he Washing on Consensus mean ha any coun y in need o inancial help om he IMF and he Wo ld Bank had o commi i sel o poli ical e o ms. These included p i a iza ions o public p ope y, cu s in public spending on in as uc u e, educa ion and heal h, 305 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance ade libe alisa ion and he de egula ion o o eign exchange (Babb, 2013; Glina os, 2008; Saad-Filho, 2010; Williamson, 2004). The e a e se e al ins umen al easons o he ise o a singula pa adigm o de elopmen abo e all o he s, wo o which s and ou . The i s is he o me hegemonic posi ion o he USA, which con ibu ed o he uni e salisa ion o his singula pa adigm. The second is he epis emic ounda ion in mains eam economics ha combines subjec i e p e e ences and no ma i e alues wi h uni e sali y. One o he leading igu es in making his combina ion was he Aus ian economis Ludwig on Mises. Acco ding o Mises (1949, p. 21), he backbone o social and economic de elopmen is he indi idual choices epea ed day a e day in ee ma ke s and media ed by p ices and money. Fo on Mises, his undamen al subjec i ism o ee ma ke s is he ounda ion o scien i ic objec i ism: ins ead o no ms and alues, objec i is science s udies ma ke p e e ences. This p o ides he only scien i ically e i iable no m o a good socie y: libe y o choose and ee ma ke s. Von Mises (1949, p. 21) w i es: [I] is in his subjec i ism ha he objec i i y o ou science lies� Because i is subjec i is ic and akes he alue judgemen s o ac ing man as ul ima e da a no open o any u he c i ical examina ion, i is i sel abo e all schools o dogma ism and e hical doc ines, i is ee om alua ions and p econcei ed ideas and judgmen s, i is uni e sally alid and absolu ely and plainly human� Sus ainable use o na u al esou ces is one o he p oblems o his pe spec i e o de elopmen , pa icula ly ha de eloped coun ies ha e pollu ed he ea h so ha li e-gi ing adia ion om he sun does no escape he ea h as i used o. Ins ead, i shines e e wa me on he plas ic ga bage islands (la ge han some coun ies) su ing he oceanic s eams, which a e in jeopa dy due o mel ing pola ice caps. This model o de elopmen , as Pe u ian diploma and au ho Oswaldo de Ri e o (2010, p. 2–3) a gues, “ope a es in he same way as a cance ous cell ha goes on des oying he o ganism o which i li es.” The mos a den p oponen s o ee ma ke undamen alism a gue ha he ise in ou ma e ial well-being h ough he a ailabili y o ca s, mobile phones, McDonalds and, mos impo an ly, he decline in child mo ali y, a e clea indica ions o a ue 306 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance global de elopmen . Howe e , economic de elopmen has been pa alleled wi h ecological disas e . F om he only uni e sally applicable pe spec i e, ha is, he p ese a ion o ou common ea h, economic de elopmen has also b ough abou a apid degene a ion o he na u al en i onmen . Ano he se o p oblems ela ed o he de elopmen o hodoxy a e social in na u e. Only a mino i y o he global popula ion, e en in de eloped coun ies, enjoys economic independence, which is a key aspec o ee ma ke compe i ion. Wi hou i , ma ke - ela ed choices a e less abou indi idual p e e ences and mo e abou powe . E en mo e impo an ly, one should no o ge he millions o people bo n o li e a a subsis ence le el, wi hou indi idual o communi a ian con ol o e hei li ing en i onmen s and subjec ed o he o ce o hunge and he money ha se es global ma ke s (Al a edo, Chancel, Pike y, Saez, & Zucman, 2018, p. 10–14; FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO, 2017, p. ii). Conce n wi h he social e ec s o economic de elopmen is no new. I was aised by he ounde s o bo h libe alism and communism. Ka l Ma x’s (1887/2010, p. 313) c i ique o he English ac o ies, whe e he wo ke becomes “a li ing appendage o he machine,” is s ill applicable o he swea shops o Indonesia, China, India and o he pa s o he eme ging and de eloping wo ld. Adam Smi h (1776/2005, p. 637–638) wo ied abou he e ec s o long hou s o s a iona y ac o y wo k on he in ellec ual and emo ional abili ies o wo ke s. He w o e ha he high p oduc i i y and economic gains o he owne may come wi h hea y cos s o he wo ke , “ o be acqui ed a he expense o his in ellec ual, social, and ma ial i ues.” I is equally ques ionable whe he i is p ope o millions o people in de eloped socie ies o li e in po e y h ough bo h unemploymen and minimum wage employmen , while a weal hy mino i y acqui es he majo i y o he income (Eh en eich, 2001; Shiple , 2005). Thus, he p oblems o his old pa adigm a e many, and i has been objec ed o c i ique om academia, om de eloping coun ies as well as om wi hin mul ila e al ins i u ions (e.g. Rod ik, 1996; S igli z, 2002; Mendes Pe ei a, 2016). As a esul , he in e na ional inancial ins i u ions ha e sough o be e ake in o accoun p oblems o po e y and social exclusion, employing he concep o inclusi e g ow h o desc ibe shi away om he old o hodoxy (Mendes Pe ei a, 2016; Saad-Filho, 2010). 307 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance Ye , many schola s ha e a gued ha hese changes do no amoun o a change in he pa adigm i sel and ha , in spi e o some e o ms, he Washing on Consensus emains wi hou an al e na i e. (Babb, 2013; Glina os, 2008; Saad-Filho, 2010). Agains his backg ound, BRICS has elici ed deba es on how i ela es o he Washing on Consensus and whe he BRICS o e s al e na i es o he old de elopmen pa adigm (see e.g., Ban & Bly h, 2013; G ay & Gills, 2016; Bond & Ga cia, 2015). This chap e seeks o ela e BRICS o global go e nance h ough he in e na ional inancial ins i u ions and in pa icula h ough he o hodoxy o de elopmen . BRICS: A Challenge o a Cons uc i e Leade ? BRICS schola ship has mos ly ope a ed wi hin linea o e olu iona y pe spec i es on change. In o he wo ds, he ocus has been on a po en ial up u e wi h he pas o a g adual imp o emen o i . The BRICS challenge heo y can be di ided in o wo main hypo heses: a) ha BRICS poses a challenge o he hie a chy be ween s a es in he cu en mul ila e al sys em o b) ha i seeks o challenge he sys em. Challenging he hie a chy be ween s a es is ele an o a s a e-cen ic analysis o in e na ional ela ions, and pa icula ly o he US and i s allies (e.g., Tammen e al., 2000). F om an ins i u ionalis pe spec i e, in e na ional ela ions a e mos ly unde s ood in e ms o ules and no ms, whe eby decision- making akes place in in e na ional o ganisa ions be ween many s a es (e.g. Ikenbe y, 2001). F om an ins i u ionalis pe spec i e, i is ele an o s udy BRICS ela ions in e ms o he cu en ins i u ions, ules and no ms. In he global ading and inancial sys em, BRICS has al eady engende ed some changes. In esponse o he US dominance in in e na ional inancial ins i u ions, BRICS launched wo new inancial ins i u ions in 2014: he New De elopmen Bank (NDB) and he Con ingen Rese e A angemen (CRA). Th ee BRICS membe s o he Wo ld T ade O ganisa ion (WTO), B azil, India and China, played a c ucial ole in upse ing he o me balance o powe a he WTO by inc easing he in luence o he de eloping wo ld (Hopewell, 2016). In i s summi decla a ions, BRICS calls o a g ea e 308 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance oice o he de eloping wo ld and demands democ a ic e o ms a he Uni ed Na ions (UN), Wo ld Bank and IMF (see S uenkel, 2013; Thaku , 2014). Wha exac ly ha e been he e ec s and objec i es o hese changes? Is BRICS p omo ing a new kind o economic and social de elopmen and a new ype o mul ila e alism, o is i simply seeking a g ea e le el o in luence; i.e., seeking o change he hie a chy be ween s a es? The BRICS a e no he bes p omo e s no applie s o ma ke -o ien ed egula o y sys ems, iscal aus e i y and comp ehensi e ade libe alisa ion (Babb, 2013; Fou cade, 2013; Schmalz & Ebenau, 2012). They ha e ins ead e ained a ying measu es o di ec o indi ec s a e con ol o e hei ma ke s (Nölke, en B ink, Simone & May, 2014; S ephen, 2014), mos no ably China (Jiang, 2014; McNally, 2012; an de Pijl, 2012). Mo eo e , in he UN, China and Russia – bo h membe s o he Secu i y Council – ha e used hei e o powe in suppo o ei he hei s a egic in e es o he undamen al alues o na ional in eg i y. An example o his is he US-led humani a ian in e en ion in Sy ia and ega ding he applica ion o he Responsibili y o P o ec (R2P) commi men (S uenkel, 2014). The ac ha he BRICS economies di e om libe alised Wes e n economies does no , howe e , alida e he hypo hesis o sys emic change. In e nally, he BRICS coun ies a e e y di e en in e ms o hei economic s uc u es implying ha hey ha e no sha ed economic ision o a challenging economic al e na i e o o e . Russia is hea ily dependen on i s oil and gas expo s and has a poo ly di e si ied economy. India has a booming se ices sec o , bu abou hal o i s popula ion su i e on small-scale ag icul u e. The e a e as many poo Indians as he e a e Eu opeans al oge he , bu he e a e also as many ich Indians as he e a e Ge mans. China, howe e , is he mos impo an ading pa ne o all wo ld powe s, and while many a e dependen on China, China is dependen on only a ew. In e es ingly, China’s economic ies a e much close o he EU and he US han, o example, o India o o he BRICS coun ies. Mo eo e , China’s economic (and mili a y) clou in Sou h Asia (India’s neighbou hood) has in ensi ied he al eady deep- sea ed con lic s be ween he wo. BRICS has no common agenda o change. Indeed, Babb (2013) has shown he e is no such hing as a BRICS consensus ha opposes he 309 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance old Washing on Consensus. Duggan (2015), in con as , has a gued ha BRICS is changing he ules and no ms o globalisa ion wi h a new agenda o global economic go e nance. His conclusion was based pa ly on he an ipa hy o BRICS owa ds in e nal e o ms and pa ly on he discou se o de elopmen in BRICS Summi decla a ions. Ne e heless, Duggan does no p o e he exis ence o an ac ual agenda. Ins ead, he simply demons a es he exis ence o a discou se ha de ia es om es ablished iews on de elopmen . T ue, as Mielniczuk (2013) has a gued, new o al e na i e discou ses can ha e long-s anding e ec s on he idea ional cons uc ion o global go e nance h ough c ea ion o sha ed pu poses. This, howe e , is also no he same as an agenda no does i necessa ily lead o a o ma ion o new o al e na i e agendas. The schola ly deba e a ound BRICS does no ende suppo o he BRICS challenge heo y, in he sense ha BRICS is ac i ely p omo ing sys emic change. In con as , he T ump adminis a ion clea ly iews China and Russia in pa icula as challenge s o he US-led in e na ional sys em. These s a es, acco ding o his iew, do no only seek o o e u n he hie a chy be ween s a es, bu also challenge he dominance o he libe al democ acies in in e na ional a ai s. The ecen US Na ional Secu i y S a egy (T ump, 2017, p. 25) and he Na ional De ence S a egy (Depa men o De ense [DoD], 2018, p. 2) decla ed ha g ea powe compe i ion has e u ned and ha challenge s a es seek “ o shape a wo ld consis en wi h hei au ho i a ian model – gaining e o au ho i y o e o he na ions’ economic, diploma ic, and secu i y decisions.” I is indeed ue ha BRICS coun ies ha e used hei posi ion o challenge he US and de eloped coun y agendas a he UN and WTO. Howe e , ha does no mean ha hey would no ha e played by he ules. Disag eemen is ully accep able. Mo eo e , democ a ic decision-making among pee s is much mo e di icul han managing a hie a chical sys em. Go e nance o he UN and WTO is oday much less abou hie a chy be ween s a es ha i was du ing he pos -Cold Wa unipola momen (e.g., Ikenbe y, 2015; Hopewell, 2016). I is much mo e abou democ a ic decision-making among pee s. Thus, go e nance is bound o be mo e p one o disag eemen , shi ing alliances and imely nego ia ions, bu his is some hing ha comes wi h plu alism and e idences he iabili y o 316 Leading Change in a Complex Wo ld: T ansdisciplina y Pe spec i es Leade ship o a Plu alis ic O de ? Assessing BRICS and De elopmen Finance han any o he No he n coun ies. As a esul , i appea s ha he s uc u al and idea ional con inui ies o capi alism bind BRICS o he old. In his sense, BRICS is indeed no a challenge bu also ha dly a leade o change. E en hough i appea s ha BRICS is a new ype o ac o on he global s age, his in e p e a ion hus has se ious limi a ions. BRICS is new in he sense ha i builds on and p omo es plu alism by b eaking he idea ional p edominance o he o hodoxy o de elopmen . Ye , while BRICS has c ea ed a space o discussion abou al e na i e de elopmen models, he e is li le e idence o BRICS ac ually aking he lead in his discussion. Pe haps he BRICS p omise is ye o ma e ialise. 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