Economic Degrowth and the Collapse of Institutional Order : Theory and Propositions

This is a sel -a chi ed e sion o an o iginal a icle. This e sion may di e om he o iginal in pagina ion and ypog aphic de ails. Au ho (s): Ti le: Yea : Ve sion: Copy igh : Righ s: Righ s u l: Please ci e he o iginal e sion: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 h ps://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Economic Deg ow h and he Collapse o Ins i u ional O de : Theo y and P oposi ions © Ki joi aja 2022 Published e sion Lambe g, Juha-An i; Nykänen, Nooa; Taskinen, Ja mo Lambe g, J.-A., Nykänen, N., & Taskinen, J. (2022). Economic Deg ow h and he Collapse o Ins i u ional O de : Theo y and P oposi ions. Annales Academiae Scien ia um Fennicae, 1(1), 10-27. h ps://doi.o g/10.57048/aas .122842 2022 #1 10 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS Economic Deg ow h and he Collapse o Ins i u ional O de : Theo y and P oposi ions Juha-An i Lambe g Nooa Nykänen Ja mo Taskinen 11 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS 12 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS 13 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS Abs ac In eg a ing insigh s om new ins i u ional economics and s udies on he collapse o pas empi es, we ske ch a p ocess model ha links economic deg ow h o he collapse o ins i u ional o de s. Ou hough expe imen s a s om emphasizing he impo ance o ins i u ions and en o cemen mechanisms in main aining a su icien le el o economic ac i i y o sus ain public cos s. We lip his es ablished logic and elucida e he nega i e ole o economic deg ow h in he weakening o he public sec o ’s abili y o en o ce ins i u ional ules. In e nal and ex e nal shocks u he shake he s abili y o he ins i u ional o de and, a some poin , indi iduals’ belie in ins i u ional ules and no ms weakens, esul ing in sys em-wide collapse o he ins i u ional o de . We use his o ical li e a u e on he collapse o Roman Empi e as an “expe imen al p o o ype” (Meye , Gaba, & Colwell, 2005: 471) o inspi e and illus a e ou hough expe imen . 14 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS 1. In oduc ion P e ious s udies in ins i u ional economics (e.g., Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson, 2005) and economic his o y (B oadbe y & Wallis, 2017; Pe sson & Sha p, 2015) ha e highligh ed he e iciency o ins i u- ional o de – he in e play o anspa en and p edic able o mal and in o mal ules and en o cemen mechanisms esol ing dispu es (No h, 1990) – as a necessa y condi ion o long- e m economic g ow h (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2012). We u n his pe spec i e upside down and sugges ha he unc ioning o ins i u ional o de s migh be ecip ocally condi ioned by economic g ow h. Acco dingly, economic deg ow h (c ., Kallis e . al., 2018) – de ined as a long- e m economic down u n – may be an exis en ial c isis o he main enance o ins i u ional o de s. The collapse o ins i u ional o de s is a less s udied han is he link be ween ins i u ions and economic g ow h. The opic is indi ec ly ouched upon in s udies on collapses o poli ical sys ems (e.g., Yo ee & Cowgill, 1988, Tain e , 2008), which consis en ly epo how a some poin indi id- uals and o ganiza ions s op belie ing in he alue and u ili y o es ablished ules and no ms, he ins i u ional o de o socie ies. T ansla ed in o he language o o ganiza ion s udies, accoun s om he co pus o collapse s udies e lec “… he e osion o discon inui y o an ins i u ion- alized o ganiza ional ac i i y o p ac ice” (Oli e , 1992: 563). Ea lie s udies on he e olu ion o ins i u ional o de s (e.g., Hodgson, 2009; No h, 1990) and collapses o poli ical sys ems ha e emained sepa a e s eams o esea ch. Meye , Gaba, and Colwell (2005: 456) ha e obse ed ha “… esea che s acknowledge ieldwide lux, eme gence, con e gence, and collapse, bu sides ep di ec in es iga ions o he causes and dynamic p ocesses, lea ing hese e o s o poli ical scien is s and ins i u ional economis s.” In his spi i and inspi ed by o he simila app oaches o o ganiza ional heo izing (e.g., Clemen e, Du and, & Roule , 2017), ou mo i a ion is o in eg a e hese s eams o esea ch and s udy he collapse p ocess o ins i u ional o de . Exis ing s udies and concep ual pape s on he e osion o ins i u ional o de s mainly ocus on mic o-le el p ac ices (Magui e & Ha dy, 2009; Ahmadjian & Robinson, 2001) and o ganiza ional o ms (Da is, Diekmann, & Tinsley, 1994) as esea ch objec s (i.e., as some hing ha decays wi hou being simply eplaced wi h an al e na i e ins i u ional o de ). Schola s o ien ed o new ins i u ional economics The collapse o ins i u ional o de s is a less s udied han is he link be ween ins i u ions and economic g ow h. 15 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS (Bjø nsko & Foss, 2016) and new ins i u ionalism (Ing am & Sil e man, 2000) sha e simila esea ch in e es s while wo king wi h a di e en concep ual ocabula y and o en ocusing on mo e mac o-le el ins i u ional change. Nobel lau ea e Douglass C. No h (1990), o example, wo ked wi h a heo e ical model in which he eme gence and e osion o ins i u ions a e equally possible depending on he s eng h o en o cemen mecha- nisms and he p ices o ansac ions. Mo e a ely, as in Ahmadjian and Robinson (2001) and Allen and Held ing (2022), economic and ins i u ional p essu es a e analyzed as dynamic in e ac ions wi hin a poli ical sys em – a logic we ollow in his essay. Building on collapse s udies and assump ions om heo e ical wo k on ins i u ional change, we se ou p oposi- ions o ou line he nega i e e ec o economic deg ow h on he public sec o ’s abili y o en o ce ins i u ional ules, which can esul in he po en ial ise o p i a e o de ing as a subs i u e o s a e-cen e ed ins i u ional o de . We in eg a e hese e ec s in o a heo e ical model ha explica es he mu ual oles o ins i u ional o de s and he a ailabili y o economic esou ces. In pa icula , he model expands cu en unde s anding by iden i ying he mechanisms and p ocesses p eceding he collapse o ins i u ional o de s. Ou model may be used o simula- ions and coun e ac ual modelling, hus becoming a s a ing poin o an imp o ed unde s anding o he ela ionship be ween economic g ow h and he de elopmen and main enance o ins i u ional o de , and he possibili ies o managemen in e - en ions o p e en chao ic ans o ma- ions and collapses. 2. Collapse in he P io Li e a u e We ollow Yo ee and Cowgill’s (1988) concep ual de ini ions o collapse. Though ou ocus is on he collapse o ins i u ional o de s, i is impo an o dis inguish he o he le els o analysis since hey indi ec ly ouch upon ins i u ional o de s as well: ci iliza ions, socie ies, and poli ical sys ems. Fi s , ci iliza ions a e b oad en i ies (e.g., mode n Wes e n democ acies) ha consis o mul iple human socie ies linked h ough economic and social in e ac ions. These en i ies a e geog aphically delimi ed and may e ain dis inc i e ins i u ional sys ems. O e all, collapses o ci iliza ions ha indica e a sudden o apid disappea - ance o dis inc cul u al en i ies a e sca ce. Second, socie ies (e.g., na ion-s a es) a e homogenous e hnic g oups o en i ies o ganized unde one poli ical, economic, and ins i u ional sys em. A b eakdown o socie y, o en unde s ood as a classic case o collapse, is no synonymous wi h a collapse o ci iliza ion since he cul u al adi ions o ci iliza ion a e no cus oma - ily es ic ed o a single s a e and may be p ac iced in o he socie ies wi hin he sphe e o in luence (F ank & Gills, 1993). The hi d ype o collapse is ha o a poli ical sys em, which is de ined as an en i y unde a uni ied ins i u ional o de (e.g., he Roman Empi e). This uni ied sys em may include mul iple socie ies wi h dis inc e hnic o linguis ic na ionali ies ha a e ins i u ionally and poli ically in eg a ed by a cen alized sou ce o powe . Collapses o poli ical sys ems ypically esul in he c ea ion o new, smalle poli ical uni s ha may p ese e selec ed adi ions and ins i u ions om 16 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS he p e ious cul u e. Ins i u ional o de , acco dingly, is a necessa y condi ion o he p ese a ion o poli ical sys ems. Se e al g and heo ies o collapse eme ged in he 20 h cen u y (Spengle , 1918; Toynbee, 1939; So okin, 1957; Coulbo n, 1966) o explain and p edic he cul u al decline o ci iliza ions. A e hese pionee ing wo ks, schola s u ned o social science and a chaeological me hodologies, a mo e ha esul ed in a d ama ic inc ease in he empi ical body o e idence on a wide ange o collapsed empi es (e.g., Eisens ad , 1969; Cipolla, 1970; Yo ee & Cowgill, 1988). Subsequen ly, he scope o schola - ship ex ended o include collapses o ci iliza ions and poli ical sys ems. Along- side he decline o he Roman Empi e, he collapse o he Mayan Empi e be ween 600 and 1100 (Thompson, 1954; Culbe , 1973; Webs e , 2002), he e olu ion o ancien G eece (Obe , 2015), and ecen ly, he collapse o ci iliza ion in he nin h cen u y Mesopo amia (Allen & Held ing, 2022) a e ancien examples o collapse p ocesses a he le el o a poli ical sys em. Finally, some s udies ha e ocused speci ically on collapses a he le el o a single socie y, such as Eas e Island (Van Tilbu g, 1994; B ande & Taylo , 1998). A undamen al ques ion in he collapse li e a u e has been whe he he b eakdown and all o socie al en i ies can be explained by iden i iable causal ac o s o whe he hese a e explainable only in mo e complex sys emic e ms. In some cases, mechanisms o decline can be clea ly iden i ied, as in cases o se e e en i on- men al deg ada ion (Diamond, 2011; Pon ing, 2007) o changes in clima ic condi ions (Yu e al., 2000; Wang e al., 2005). These mechanisms may igge o exace ba e mo e complex dynamics in social ins abili y and disin eg a ion ha in u n con ibu e o collapse- ela ed p ocesses. This has led schola s o s udy he dynamics o collapse by using ma he- ma ical and economic models and o e alua e he impo ance o p oximal and pe iphe al condi ions o decline (Tu chin, 2003; Mo esha ei e al., 2014), illumina - ing speci ically in o hose cases o collapse ha lack his o ical da a o seem o de i e om a a ie y o sou ces (Tain e , 1988; Tu chin, 2003). Howe e , o mal models ha ocus on he in e ac ion o a iables ela ed o economic p oduc ion and dis ibu ion (e.g., ax a e, p oduc i i y, le el o echnology) a e limi ed in hei abili y o explain cul u al o ins i u ional eac ions ha a ise om he ac o s’ a emp s o sol e p oblems ela ed o changing economic p essu es (e.g., Ahmadijan & Robinson, 2001). We a gue ha he e a e a leas wo key easons why a u he in eg a ion o ins i u ional and economic dimensions can ad ance he s udy o collapses o poli ical sys ems. Fi s , he in e play o social inno a ions and incen i es o di e en socie al g oups plays a key ole in s a e o ma ion p ocesses (No h, Wallis & Weingas , 2009; Bena i & Gue ie o, 2020), in p ocesses ha es ablish s able socie al condi ions in he i s place. Al hough ce ain economic condi ions may ep esen a necessa y condi ion in he unc ioning o poli ical sys ems, hey a e no su icien o main aining and p ese - ing he s abili y o poli ical sys ems. Hence, ins i u ional dynamics a e impo an o unde s anding collapse p ocesses om he pe spec i es o sys em (in)s abili y and (in)e iciency. Second, he insigh s om ansac ion cos economics (Williamson, 1985) s ongly sugges s ha ins i u ional 17 ECONOMIC DEGROWTH AND THE COLLAPSE OF INSTITUTIONAL ORDER: THEORY AND PROPOSITIONS o de s e ol e in connec ion wi h ac o e alua ions o hei pe o mance: a he le el o indi idual ansac ions, a belie in he unc ionali y o an ins i u ional o de becomes a psychological and sociological ques ion. In pa icula , dys unc ion in he ins i u ional condi ions o ansac ions can lead o he e osion o ejec ion o es ablished o ms o ansac ions, which can ha e subs an ial e ec s ac oss he sys em (Hodgson, 2009). Fo example, when No h (1990) and G ei (2003) cha ac e ize p i a e o de ing – en o ce- men and dispu e esolu ion by p i a e ac o s – as cha ac e is ic o unde de el- oped ins i u ional o de s, he collapse s udies indi ec ly e e o an al e na i e ajec o y in which socie ies eg ess o p i a e o de ing in which “…ac ion mo es om he le el o he poli y o ha o g oups… o bila e al ade s as hey a emp o pe ec hei ading ela ions in a sel -help way” (Williamson, 2002: 438). In agg ega e, hese dynamics a e ele an o he s udy o collapse p ocesses, since hey ex end unde s anding o how and why economic p essu es may igge h eshold esponses ha h ea en he s able and p edic able unc ioning o ins i u ional o de s. 3. Why Ins i u ional O de s Collapse We ocus on he collapse o ins i u ional o de as a p ocess ha e odes bo h he main enance c edibili y o public au ho i- ies and he p edic abili y o ins i u ions om he pe spec i e o economic ac o s making decisions on ansac ions. By he collapse o ins i u ional o de , we acco d- ingly e e o sys em-le el ans o ma ion p ocesses ha esul in a adical educ ion in he deg ee o ins i u ional s a i ica ion. Ou heo izing builds on co e ideas in new ins i u ional economics (e.g., Libecap, 1997; Hodgson, 2009; Wallis, 2016) ha ocus on adical, long- e m ans o ma- ions o ins i u ional o de s om less s a i ied and cus om based o highly o ganized and ex ensi ely s a i ied. Pionee ing wo k by No h (1990) and mo e ecen ad ances in ins i u ional heo y (e.g., Allen, 2011; Williamson, 2000; Allen & Held ing, 2022) guide us in seeking a ionalized explana ions o economic beha io . These beha io s (e.g., decisions conce ning ansac ions) a e de e mined pa ly by highe o de con ac- ual a angemen s and o mal and in o - mal ins i u ions (No h, 1990). Howe e , hese same beha io s can also be he engine o ins i u ional change. Acco d- ingly, seeing collapse om he pe spec i e o he decision-making p ocesses a he le el o ansac ions equi es us o ocus on bo h he economic con ex in which he ac o s a e embedded and he unc ionali y o he b oade ins i u ional and con ac- ual sys em (May, Ray e & Ledge wood, 2016). In he ollowing sec ion, we discuss how ins i u ional main enance mecha- nisms may ake a e e se ole, con ibu ing o an eme ging downwa d cycle (c . Bena i & Gue ie o, 2020). Figu e 1 syn he izes ou heo e ical model. Assump ion 1: Economic g ow h and na ional weal h is a necessa y condi ion o he building and main enance o ins i u- ional sys ems. 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