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Thinking about industry decline : A qualitative meta-analysis and future research directions

Lamberg, Juha-Antti,Ojala, Jari,Peltoniemi, Mirva

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This is an elec onic ep in o he o iginal a icle. This ep in may di e om he o iginal in pagina ion and ypog aphic de ail. Au ho (s): Ti le: Yea : Ve sion: Please ci e he o iginal e sion: All ma e ial supplied ia JYX is p o ec ed by copy igh and o he in ellec ual p ope y igh s, and duplica ion o sale o all o pa o any o he eposi o y collec ions is no pe mi ed, excep ha ma e ial may be duplica ed by you o you esea ch use o educa ional pu poses in elec onic o p in o m. You mus ob ain pe mission o any o he use. Elec onic o p in copies may no be o e ed, whe he o sale o o he wise o anyone who is no an au ho ised use . Thinking abou indus y decline : A quali a i e me a-analysis and u u e esea ch di ec ions Lambe g, Juha-An i; Ojala, Ja i; Pel oniemi, Mi a Lambe g, J.-A., Ojala, J., & Pel oniemi, M. (2018). Thinking abou indus y decline : A quali a i e me a-analysis and u u e esea ch di ec ions. Business His o y, 60(2), 127- 156. h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/00076791.2017.1340943 2018 Full Te ms & Condi ions o access and use can be ound a h ps://www. and online.com/ac ion/jou nalIn o ma ion?jou nalCode= bsh20 Business His o y ISSN: 0007-6791 (P in ) 1743-7938 (Online) Jou nal homepage: h ps://www. and online.com/loi/ bsh20 Thinking abou indus y decline: A quali a i e me a-analysis and u u e esea ch di ec ions Juha-An i Lambe g, Ja i Ojala & Mi a Pel oniemi To ci e his a icle: Juha-An i Lambe g, Ja i Ojala & Mi a Pel oniemi (2018) Thinking abou indus y decline: A quali a i e me a-analysis and u u e esea ch di ec ions, Business His o y, 60:2, 127-156, DOI: 10.1080/00076791.2017.1340943 To link o his a icle: h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/00076791.2017.1340943 © 2017 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup Published online: 25 Jun 2017. Submi you a icle o his jou nal A icle iews: 629 View C ossma k da a Ci ing a icles: 2 View ci ing a icles Business His o y, 2018 VoL. 60, no. 2, 127–156 h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/00076791.2017.1340943 Thinking abou indus y decline: A quali a i e me a-analysis and u u e esea ch di ec ions Juha-An i Lambe ga, Ja i Ojalaa and Mi a Pel oniemib aDepa men o His o y and e hnology, uni e si y o Jy äskylä, Jy äskylä, Finland; bschool o Business and economics, uni e si y o Jy äskylä, Jy äskylä, Finland ABSTRACT We analyze his o ical and longi udinal esea ch ocusing on indus y decline. Ou analysis sugges s ha he li e a u e’s gene al eliance on a ew me a- heo e ical a gumen s has impo an consequences o how decline is amed and explained. We iden i y ou me a- heo e ical clus e s in he li e a u e: poli ics and ma ke dynamics a e seen as exogenous ac o s wi h de e minis ic ea u es, whe eas echnology and managemen capabili ies a e amed as i m-in e nal ailu es wi h causally ques ionable explana ions o how i m-le el cha ac e is ics explain indus y-le el decline. We p opose ha i is impo an o unde s and he limi a ions o dis inc me a- heo e ical a gumen s o an enhanced heo e ical and me hodological unde s anding o wha indus y decline is, how i akes place, and why. Acco dingly, his s udy con ibu es o business his o y esea ch by es uc u ing and cla i ying la en heo e ical issues, demons a ing he p os and cons o esea che s’ choices, and o e ing guidelines and p oposi ions o esea che s in e es ed in indus y decline. In oduc ion Business his o y is illed wi h examples o ca as ophic decline p ocesses o indus ies. Such decline p ocesses ha e occu ed, o example, in he B i ish coal indus y, he De oi au o- mobile indus y, he Pi sbu gh s eel indus y, and he Sco ish kni wea indus y.1 In e o- spec , we can iden i y simila causal pa e ns o decline, including sa u a ion o demand, o eign compe i ion, p oblema ic labo ela ions, and he inabili y o keep up wi h echno- logical change. Howe e , he his o ical esea ch on he decline o speci ic indus ies is wildly he e ogeneous in e ms o con en and esul s. Fu he mo e, he esea ch co pus lacks a cohe en s uc u e and dialogical na u e and consequen ly does no achie e a deg ee o cla i y ha would be help ul o ei he ui ul empi ical esea ch agendas o c i ical heo e ical discussion.2 This is he case despi e he ac ha indus y decline and indus ial compe i- i eness a e majo esea ch opics in business his o y, s a egy, and economic geog aphy. As Ray S okes and Ral Banken ha e p oposed, he e m ‘indus y’ is p oblema ic as such: i is a ubiqui ous concep ualiza ion ha ends o change o e ime.3 We ake a a he p ag- ma ic s ance wi h espec o how o p oceed wi h his concep ual p oblem. We ollow he © 2017 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup Th is is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion-NonComme cial-NoDe i a i es License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which pe mi s non-comme cial e-use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed, and is no al e ed, ans o med, o buil upon in any way. KEYWORDS indus y decline; de-indus ializa ion; business ailu e; business model e olu ion; indus y li e-cycles CONTACT Ja i ojala [email p o ec ed] 128 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. concep ualiza ions o ‘indus y’ as cons uc ed in he esea ch ha we analyzed. Thus, al hough he analyzed indus ies exis in ‘ eal li e’, hey a e also cons uc ions made by he esea che s. Wha makes ou ask easie is ha in he analyzed decline li e a u e, ‘indus y’ is mos o en ega ded as a loca ion-speci ic en i y: indus y decline means ha mos o he analyzed s udies examine decline in some egion, coun y o a ea, e en hough a he global le el, he indus y in ques ion as a whole did no decline. Mo eo e , decline p ocesses a e o en ela ed bo h o he de elopmen o o he indus ies and he e olu ion o i ms. The e o e, he e olu ion o indus ies – and he e y de ini ion o he e m ‘indus y’ – is bound o in e play no only be ween i ms and hei indus ies bu also be ween indus ies ha a e di e en in ime and space. Ou mission is bo h o analyze he his o ical li e a u e on indus ial decline and o p opose ways o mo ing o wa d om he heo e ical and empi ical unde s anding o his phenom- enon. Ou collec ion o li e a u e e lec s a he e ogeneous adi ion o esea ch on indus y decline, and i is no a cohe en co pus ha would enable a heo e ically obus unde s and- ing o he di e en ways o de ining and in e p e ing indus ial decline. The as majo i y o he li e a u e consis s o s and-alone s udies ha ei he explain a pa icula decline p ocess o es he powe o a speci ic heo y in p edic ing decline p ocesses. The wo la ge discu si e clus e s – he i s g oup o s udies ocused on explaining indus ial decline in he UK,4 and he second g oup o s udies ocused on he decline o he s eel indus y in he Wes e n wo ld5 – a e so idiog aphic and his o ically and geog aphically o ien ed ha hey ha e no gene a ed ei he addi ional heo e ical p og ess o la ge-scale empi ical p ojec s. We do no a gue o a one-size- i s-all app oach o indus ial decline. Ne e heless, we p opose ha we canno expec heo e ical de elopmen and an imp o ed unde s anding o his phenomenon wi hou he esolu ion o ce ain p ima y de ini ional and ope a ional issues. The e o e, we aim o analyze he li e a u e bo h o highligh wha we al eady know abou indus ial decline and o syn hesize a business his o ical analysis wi h neighbo ing ields, such as economic geog aphy, s a egic managemen , and mo e gene al (economic) his o y. We con ibu e o he li e a u e in wo ways. Fi s , ou analysis cla i ies he his o ical back- g ound and s uc u e o he decline li e a u e. The obse ed agmen a ion o he li e a u e is an impo an an eceden o he ield’s unpopula i y: wi hou a s ong heo e ical expla- na ion o indus ial decline, i is e y di icul o ei he de elop o challenge he cu en s a e o he esea ch. Second, ou esea ch cla i ies he de ini ion o indus ial decline and i s an eceden s. We o e a heo e ical amewo k ha aids u u e s udies in aming and legi imizing empi ical analyses. Al hough case s udies and compa isons om business his- o y a e highly aluable o analyzing and unde s anding he p ocesses o indus ial decline, he uses o concep s and heo e ical assump ions mus be anspa en be o e c oss- e ili- za ion be ween economically o ien ed social sciences is possible in he s udy o indus y decline and indus y e olu ion mo e gene ally. Me hod Because he e a e no hegemonic s udies on indus y decline, we engaged in a comp ehen- si e and i e a i e p ocess o sea ching and sc eening he li e a u e.6 In addi ion, du ing he ini ial sea ches in Thomson Reu e s Web o Science and Google Schola , i became e iden ha he opic is being s udied ac oss he social sciences and humani ies. This means ha BUSINESS HISTORY 129 (a) a icles a e no he p ima y publica ion o ma (and he e o e, he use o au oma ed bibliome ic me hods is p ecluded)7 and (b) om he beginning, we we e unlikely o ind ci a ion pa e ns o keywo d links ha we could use in a mo e o mal analysis. Acco dingly, ollowing he guidelines o quali a i e me a-analysis,8 we adop ed an induc i e s a egy based on an in e p e i e eading o he ma e ial.9 Ou analy ical esea ch p ocess is desc ibed in Table 1. We s a ed ou esea ch wi h a b oad lis o keywo ds and da abases. Mo eo e , we sea ched he iden i ied ci a ion pa - e ns,10 i.e. books and a icles om he e e ences o he analyzed books and a icles. We also ex ended ou sea ch o F ench, Ge man, and Scandina ian sou ces, hoping o ind non-English esea ch s eams in he s udy o indus y decline. Acco dingly, we s a ed ou esea ch wi h a lis o 327 publica ions, which we educed o 103. 11 Fo ins ance, publica ions we e excluded i hey ei he ocused on na ional, i m o o ganiza ional decline o used he e m ‘decline’ in a symbolic o d ama ized sense. Thus, we a e conce ned wi h he li e a u e ha de ines decline as a phenomenon in a speci ic indus y (including nume ous business i ms) in one o se e al egions and/o coun ies in e ms o i s ela i e ma ke posi ion. The e o e, we dis inguish decline om na ional economic g ow h/decline. Mo eo e , decline is no he same as deindus ializa ion, which ypically cha ac e izes he decline o one o many indus ies in one egion o na ion and ocuses on economic geog aphy.12 We also omi ed business ailu es ha concen a e on one i m ha migh ope a e in one o se e al indus ies. We acknowledge ha li e a u e sea ch choices a e no sel -e iden and ha , in many cases, a publica ion may belong o se e al discou ses. Fo example, Da id Kois inen examines he economic his o y o deindus ializa ion and indus y decline. Likewise, Nicholas C a s mixes indus y and na ional le els.13 Howe e , o he analy ical p ocess ha we ha e adop ed, i is necessa y o limi ou sel es o s udies o a speci ic indus y. O e all, i is unlikely ha we ha e o e looked any impo an pa e ns o discou se om he mos ecen (ou co pus does no inco po a e much esea ch om he p e-1945 pe iod) li e a u e: single books o a icles may ha e been missed, bu no o he ex en ha hei inclusion would d ama ically change ou indings. In he inal phase o ou da a collec ion and sc eening p ocess, we unde s ood ha unlike many o he e iew s udies, 14 ou li e a u e e iew lacked a cohe en and uni ying heo e ical and concep ual co e. Fo ha eason, we we e unable ei he o pinpoin ce ain a p io i hemes o o s uc u e he li e a u e acco ding o only a ew dimensions. Fo example, we iden i ied mo e han 30 heo e ical hemes o dis inc heo ies (e.g. he ‘ esou ce-based iew’ o ‘ en -seeking’); many his o ical s udies made no explici men ion o heo ies o me hods; and some s udies we e based on heo ies ha ope a e on a di e en analy ical le el om he empi ical con ex . Fo example, many s udies o B i ish pos -wa indus ial decline explain decline ei he as a unc ion o en ep eneu ial ailu e15 o as a symp om o mac o-economic dynamics,16 al hough commen e s17 ha e long p oposed ha simpli ica ions o decline, on he one hand, and he causes iden i ied (e.g. Fo dism e sus lexible specializa ion), on he o he hand, ha e li le o do wi h he empi ical e idence p o ided. Following quali a i e esea ch o ex s, we analyzed he iden i ied publica ions in wo phases. Du ing he i s ound o eading, we ma ked each publica ion acco ding o hei heo ies, me hods, esea ch objec s, geog aphical ocus, ime pe iods, and o he a ibu es ha would iden i y each ex simul aneously as an en i y and as pa o a la ge esea ch clus e . A e ma king and c ea ing a da abase, we used di e en il e combina ions o ind 130 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. Table 1.Desc ip ion o he analy ical p ocess. S ep Ac ion desc ip ion A ena Sea ch and limi pa ame e s Ou come s ep 1: Keywo d sea ch ini ial sea ch o esea ch ha po en ially ocuses on indus y decline. Bibliog aphical in o ma ion s o ed in e Wo ks. i e a i e eading o i les and keywo ds o he b oadening o he keywo d lis We used a hos o elec onic da abases and sea ch engines, including Js o , Lib is, he Lib a y o Cong ess, he B i ish Lib a y, he Lse Lib a y, Google schola , Web o science, and scopus declin, ailu e, collaps, o deindus iali, niede gang, all AnD indus , o o ganiza , AnD economics, sociology, managemen o his o y 327 publica ions: 194 books and 133 a icles s ep 2: ini ial sc eening eading abs ac s and publica ion i les e Wo ks omission o publica ions ha did no ocus di ec ly on decline 244 publica ions: 118 books and 126 a icles. s ep 3: sc eening publica ions Mo e in ensi e eading o abs ac s and en i e publica ions by wo membe s o he esea ch g oup. Consensus decision abou he publica ions ha we e omi ed a his s age and hose ha we e co e a icles and books o e ain in he co pus e Wo ks and Web o science o he analysis o ci a ion pa e ns We omi ed publica ions ha ocused on i ms and o ganiza ions and hose ha did no ocus on decline. indus y and indus ial clus e s abilized as he main uni o analysis. Addi ionally, some publica ions we e omi ed because o hei ques iona- ble scien i ic alue (i.e. p oblema ic con en and/o publica ion ou le ) 46 publica ions: 32 books and 12 a icles s ep 4: Collec ing ull ex s Collec ion o books and a icles. Digi aliza ion i necessa y (by aking digi al pho os) elec onic da abases (especially eb a y, Js o , eBsCo, and P oQues ) and London-a ea lib a ies (especially Lse and he B i ish Lib a y) omission o a ew mo e a icles and books ha we e ei he no ound o no ele an 41 publica ions: 30 books and 11 a icles s ep 5: Focused sea ch e-sea ch o publica ions based on he eading o he ull ex s al eady ound and hei lis s o e e ences see s ep 1 We used he o iginal keywo ds and conduc ed sea ches on ce ain indus ies and au ho s 103 publica ions: 46 books, 25 jou nal a icles, and 31 chap e s om edi ed olumes s ep 6: in e p e i e eading and ca ego iza ion We ead and analyzed he co pus by using he ull- ex a icles and books in addi ion o an excel sp eadshee in which he publica ions we e lis ed and a ibu ed wi h keywo ds he en i e co pus s o ed in a D opbox olde Gene a ion o keywo ds ha iden i ied he ound li e a u e: esea ch pe iod, geog aphical ocus, indus y, discipline, name(s) o he used heo ies, me hod (i a icula ed), e c see s ep 5 BUSINESS HISTORY 131 pa e ns and clus e s among he publica ions. We iden i ied only h ee clus e s ha could be cha ac e ized as e ol ing scien i ic discou ses. Fi s , he la ges academic discussion o indus y decline conce ns he easons o he UK’s loss o i s compe i i e ad an age o Ge many and he US.18 Al hough he UK discou se p ima ily conce ns adi ional business lines om he i s indus ializa ion e a (i.e. s eel, co on, and coal),19 he gene al one o he discou se is he o e a ching ine ia in in e na ional compe i ion in p ac ically all indus ies.20 The second dis inc i e g oup o publica ions pe ains o he e olu ion o he s eel indus y. As in he case o he UK discou se, he s eel indus y discou se is phenomenon-d i en, albei on an in e na ional scale. The co e na a i e conce ns he loss o compe i i eness in he UK and hen in he US, Ge many, and all adi ional s eel-p oducing coun ies. The s eel indus y discou se emphasizes he ailed in e en ions o go e nmen s, he poisonous in luence o labo unions, and en ep eneu ial ailu es. 21 Finally, he discou se o ‘o he s’ includes a a ie y o s udies om di e en heo e ical and me hodological angles. The s udied indus ies anged om ishe ies o e ilize s and om machine ools o pulp and pape . The s udies co e ed a wide geog aphical ange ha encompasses he US, Canada, F ance, Po ugal, Japan, Tu key, Egyp , Tanzania, he No dic coun ies, and Chile. Some s udies p esen ed da a co e ing se e al Eu opean coun ies; o he s e en p esen ed global da a. This he e ogeneous co pus helped us iden i y new app oaches o s udying and unde - s anding indus y decline. In he nex sec ion, we summa ize and o e a heo e ical in e - p e a ion o how indus y decline is de ac o de ined and measu ed in he li e a u e. We hen u n ou a en ion o ou me a- heo e ical explana ions o indus y decline ha we iden- i ied om he li e a u e. How he indus y decline li e a u e de ines decline While coding ou ma e ial, we ound conside able a ie y in ela ion o he dependen a - iable, i.e. wha is measu ed and explained when esea che s s udy indus y decline. The ollowing lis cap u es he mos ypical candida es o wha indus y decline is: • Dec easing p o i s (p ice-cos ma gin) and dec easing ou pu • Declining sales • Inabili y o enew/declining p o i s • Decline ela i e o compe i o s • Declining in e na ional ma ke sha e • Indus ial o ganiza ion s uc u e (managemen ’s abili y o c ea e an a chi ec u e capa- ble o enewal) • Compe i i e decline, no inno a ions, o ganiza ional ine iciency • Declining ma ke sha e, declining p o i s • Declining ma ke sha e, in e io echnology • Decline as a cogni i e measu e • O ganiza ional decline, unwillingness o adap mode n p ac ices, indus ial ine iciency • Declining expo s • Lowe p oduc i i y o inno a i e ac i i ies (pa en ing) and weake s ock ma ke pe o mance • Employmen g ow h a e 132 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. • Dec easing g ow h o esea ch and de elopmen (R&D) in es men , dec easing sha e o basic esea ch as opposed o applied esea ch and de elopmen , dec easing sha e o domes ic in en o s compa ed wi h o eign in en o s iling pa en s • Dec easing capi al in es men s (new plan and equipmen ), declining R&D expendi u e, declining sha e o domes ic pa en s F om all o hese de ini ions, we iden i ied i e la ge ca ego ies ha by and la ge co e he de ini ions p o ided in he examined s udies. The i s ca ego y ea s decline as a downwa d end in ou pu . This de ini ional ca ego y co e s dec easing sales, smalle quan i ies o uni s p oduced and o e capaci y (i.e. a disc epancy be ween p oduc ion and sales). Paul A. Ti any, o example, de ines ‘indus y decline’ in he con ex o he US s eel indus y as he ‘con inuing de e io a ion o Ame ica’s s eel pe o mance in he in e na ional ma ke .’ 22 Ano he example is Liza Pipe ’s s udy o Canadian ishe ies in which indus y decline is diagnosed acco ding o dec easing ou pu .23 The second ype o decline de ini ion cen e s on in es men ends as synonyms and/o measu es o decline: dec easing o ceasing in es men in p oduc ion capaci y. An hony DiFilippo, o example, uses a mul i ude o indica o s, one o which is dec easing capi al in es men in plan s and equipmen .24 The hi d ca ego y associa es decline wi h he de e- io a ion o in es men a es in echnology and inno a ion. Schola s ega d decline in such in es men as he absence o new p oduc s, low pa en ing a es and dec easing R&D in es - men a es. Fo example, Ashish A o a e al. diagnose he decline o he Japanese in o ma ion echnology (IT) indus y based on Japan’s lowe pa en ing a es compa ed wi h hose o hei US compe i o s.25 DiFilippo hen uses bo h he declining R&D expendi u e and he declining sha e o pa en s iled by US i ms o signal he decline o he US machine ool indus y.26 The ou h ca ego y co e s inancial indica o s such as dec easing p o i abili y, poo sol- ency s a us, poo s ock ma ke pe o mance, dec easing con ibu ions o he na ional economy, and domes ic p oduce s’ dec easing ma ke sha e. Fo example, Eina Lie uses dec easing p o i abili y as an indica o o decline in he Eu opean e ilize indus y, and F ed Manne ing e al. use he d op in ma ke sha e o domes ic p oduce s in he US au omo i e manu ac u ing indus y o signal indus y decline.27 Finally, a ew s udies measu e indus y h ough changes in indus y s uc u e, ypically h ough dec easing i m numbe s. Fo exam- ple, Joonas Jä inen e al. use dec easing i m numbe s as indica o s o global decline in he pulp and pape indus y.28 The obse ed di e si y in he indica o s o indus ial decline ine i ably esul s in and e lec s a si ua ion in which empi ical s udies do no explain he same phenomenon. Fo example, despi e a lack o in es men in capaci y o inno a ion, sales may inc ease. A dec ease in i m numbe s may indica e he wo king o economies o scale in which a e age i m size inc eases along wi h p oduc ion and sales. S ock ma ke pe o mance may depend mo e on a ple ho a o u u e isks han on any obse ed con ac ion in cu en ope a ions. Finally, hypo he ical decline p ocesses do no co espond wi h any economic measu es o decline,29 se ing mo e as a na a i e esou ce han as an empi ical cons uc . D.N. McCloskey p o ides he ollowing explana ion:30 ‘Al hough mildly ashionable among his o ians, nei he o hese al e na i es could be conside ed o ha e been success ul in eplacing he hypo hesis o ailu e, because bo h we e in oduced in he same nonquan i a i e way as en ep eneu ship i sel . The o m o a gumen adop ed by bo h sides in he deba e was quali a i e isola ion o one a iable – en ep eneu ship, BUSINESS HISTORY 133 in e ela edness, slowly g owing demand – was su icien o explain a good pa o he appa - en lag in echnology.’31 An implici unde s anding o decline as he inabili y o change and enew an in en ional decision o exi 32 is a common no ion ac oss he sampled li e a u e. Fo example, Mu a Cizakca a gues ha he Bu sa silk indus y declined in he 16 h and 17 h cen u ies because p ice ola ili y led o a change in p oduc ion s a egy.33 The US cu nail indus y declined, acco ding o Amos J. Lo eday, because i ms and hei manage s we e unable o adap o changing echnology: ‘Failu e o ecognize he need o , and he long- e m p o i abili y o , indus ial esea ch was he missing componen in a managemen philosophy ha was o h- e wise ema kably success ul.’34 This de ac o de ini ion o decline as he opposi e o enewal has an in iguing associa ion wi h he heo e ical p emises o indus y li e cycle heo y: enewal would equi e he building o p o ec i e ins i u ional ba ie s, he de elopmen o new echnological inno a ions, o he c ea ion o new indus ies. In all o he s udies included, a leas one o hese enewal al e na i es ailed and he en ep eneu s decided o exi . We now sc u inize he easons o decline iden i ied in ou li e a u e collec ion. Analysis The i s ound o ou quali a i e in e p e a i e analysis esul ed in 32 sugges ions as easons o indus y decline. We agg ega ed hese ca ego ies as ou me a- heo e ical clus e s o explana ions, which (a) enable us o g oup indi idual s udies acco ding o hei explana o y logic (e.g. ole o agency and e olu ion) and (b) sugges di ec ions o u u e esea ch. These me a- heo e ical clus e s a e policy and ins i u ional en i onmen , ma ke dynamics, ech- nology, and capabili ies. Policy and he ins i u ional en i onmen a la ge Ou collec ion o decline li e a u e p ima ily ea s policy decisions and he ins i u ional en i onmen as exogenous ac o s. Al hough many s udies acknowledge ha i ms and indus y associa ions a emp o a ec and modi y public policies,35 and ha in many cases go e nmen is an ac i e playe in he decline p ocess, mos au ho s seem o ea decline p ocesses acco ding o hei egula o y and ins i u ional en i onmen s.36 This app oach is an in e es ing choice: mos plu alis heo is s o poli ical decision-making would a gue ha i ms and indus y associa ions in en ionally compe e o public goods in he ‘poli ical ma ke place.’37 The s udied collec ion o decline li e a u e iden i ies o he ac o s, such as labo unions38 and indus ial ac o s in o he coun ies and o he indus ies;39 howe e , he ocal indus ies a e a ely iewed as ope a ing in he same ne wo k o commi men s.40 In some cases, i m managemen and o he indus y leade s a e accused o mismanaging hei s ake- holde ne wo ks ( ypically, labo unions and go e nmen );41 howe e , s udies iewing i ms and o he o ganiza ions as embedded in he same ins i u ional en i onmen ha a ec s hei decline p ocess a e ei he a e o non-exis en . Today’s poli ical economis s assume ha wo ac o s in luence he e olu ion o indus ies (and hence, he downwa d spi al), hus p o iding he heo e ical backg ound o he ques ion o he go e nmen ’s ole. Fi s , ep esen a i es o he ield o new poli ical economy (which is based on his o ical e idence and empi ical da a) assume ha ce ain ins i u ional elemen s 140 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. and Edge on ques ion he e y exis ence o his decline in he UK.121 Lazonick conside s manage ial ailu e as a key de e minan o he decline o B i ish indus ies. Acco ding o him, B i ish businessmen ailed ( o e en y) ‘indi idually o collec i ely o ans o m hei indus- ial en i onmen ’; hey ins ead ‘ ook he condi ions acing hem as gi en’.122 Howe e , as Roge Lloyd-Jones and My ddin J. Lewis sugges , B i ish indus ial decline canno be explained by a simila ailu e o enew and ake ad an age o new echnologies in all indus- ies. They sugges , o example, ha he She ield me al indus y was based on ‘quali y p oduc ion and lexible echnology’ and hus esembled i s Ame ican analog.123 De ek F. Channon a gues ha B i ish indus ial co po a ions su e ed om manage ial de iciencies, such as a lack o expe ise in ele an p icing, ine icien p oduc ion, poo indus- ial ela ions, low capi al in es men , and p e e ences o colonial ma ke s.124 In a simila ein, Joonas Jä inen e al. ind ha i ms in he global pulp and pape indus y we e locked in o hei p e iously success ul pa hs and we e unable o adap o a changing en i on- men . 125 Ba y E.C. Boo hman’s s udy o e s a mo e de ailed explana ion o he lack o adap- a ion: in he Canadian pulp and pape indus y, co po a e epo ing p ac ices masked i ms’ inancial s a us and esul ed in o e in es men and excess capaci y.126 Such epo ing p ac- ices hin a une hical beha io . Fu he mo e, bo h Thomas P. Ca ney and Amos J. Lo eday o e e hical ailu e as he eason o indus y decline: idealis ic leade s o he pas ha e been eplaced by p o i -mo i a ed oppo unis s.127 In addi ion o a lack o skill and e hics, manage ial ailu e is ied o na ional cul u e. In he case o he B i ish co on indus y, he decline is explained by he ise o co po a e economies in Japan and he US, whe e he new co po a e cul u e was be e equipped o ‘c ea e condi- ions o new p o i able oppo uni ies.’128 Nume ous s udies analyzing B i ish indus ial decline, whe he du ing he la e nine een h cen u y, he u n o he wen ie h cen u y, o a e he Second Wo ld Wa , end o emphasize a ce ain, almos cul u ally embedded adi ion o manage s adhe ing o old me hods and p ac ices. 129 Howe e , cul u ally bound manage ial ailu e is no solely a B i ish phenomenon. The all o he Japanese IT indus y has also been explained in cul u al e ms: as so wa e inno a ions ha e become mo e impo an , Japanese i ms ha e su e ed because he Japanese a e no p one o so wa e inno a ion.130 The capabili ies-based explana ion o indus ial decline ul ima ely lays he blame on manage s. Manage s lack equi ed skills because o poo educa ion o cul u ally bound no ms and alues. Could a di e en se o manage s ha e sa ed an indus y in decline? Acco ding o empi ical esea ch on managemen ’s impac on su i al, we simply do no know he answe o his ques ion. Thus, and unsu p isingly, he wide capabili y li e a u e on indus y decline has ound i di icul o de ine and assess he causal ela ionship be ween manage ial ac i i ies and decline. Robe A. Ankli and E a Somme , o example, claim ha he decline o he Ame ican s eel indus y was indeed caused by managemen ailu e bu ha exac ly whe e manage s we e ac i e is a mo e p oblema ic ques ion, because manage s we e esponsible o daily decisions abou subjec ma e wi h a - eaching consequences. Ankli and Somme conclude ha Ame ican s eel indus y manage s we e incapable o enew- ing he business o e u n o i s o me success: ‘Managemen hough ha hey had he bes indus y in he wo ld – wha wo ked yes e day was hough o wo k jus as well omo - ow.’131 A simila conclusion is ob ained in se e al s udies analyzing a ious lines o declining indus ies in B i ain. Howe e , again, a clea causal ela ionship migh be ha d o pinpoin . Fo example, acco ding o Lo enz, he decline o he B i ish shipbuilding indus y was no necessa ily caused by a managemen ailu e; i was ins ead caused by he ailu e o build BUSINESS HISTORY 141 us be ween managemen and ade unions.132 Howe e , his us migh be unde s ood as an en ep eneu ial unc ion; hus, i i we e neglec ed, he si ua ion could be unde s ood as a manage ial ailu e in building us wi h unions. Manage ial ailu e boils down o he human endency o p e e he amilia o e he un amilia , which in manage ial speak ansla es in o a local sea ch. Cogni i e limi a ions esul in changes ha su ace as su p ises: he Sco ish kni wea indus y (i.e. kni wea i ms and hei manage s) did no unde s and ha i had los i s p e ious ad an age,133 and B i ish pape indus y manage s op imized p oduc ion wi h in o ma ion ha , in e ospec , mo i- a ed hem o make in e io echnology choices.134 Howe e , he same manage s would be labeled success ul he oes wi hou he decline, which unde lines no only he endency o a ibu e ailu e o indi iduals bu also he ac ha an indi idual-le el explana ion is ca e- go ically w ong when aiming o explain indus y-le el decline p ocesses.135 Acco dingly, Teece’s p oposal o ha e a ich modula base o capabili ies would be help ul in enewing indus ies and does no eg ess o indi idual i ms and hei decisions.136 Discussion The analysis o ou collec ion o indus y decline li e a u e e ealed a agmen ed body o esea ch. The mo e han 100 publica ions ocus on nume ous indus ies, coun ies, and egions and use di e en heo ies and me hods. The collec ion does no ha e a dialogical s uc u e ou side some classic hemes in economic and indus ial his o y (e.g. UK manu ac- u ing in he wen ie h cen u y and he US s eel indus y). F om his s a ing poin , ou s udy’s con ibu ions a e as ollows. Fi s , we ede ine indus y decline o cla i y he esea ch opic in u u e s udies. Second, we gene a e heo e ical p oposi ions based on his o ical e idence. Thi d, we make some sugges ions abou how o s udy indus y decline and wha migh a ise as limi a ions in such inqui ies. A ( e)de ini ion o indus y decline Ou collec ion o li e a u e e lec s an in e es ing pa adox: only a ew indus ies ha e com- ple ely disappea ed om indus ial his o y. Con e sely, a la ge US s eel indus y s ill exis s; ca s a e manu ac u ed in he UK; and No dic pape indus y i ms a e la ge han be o e hei indus y s a ed o decline. Ou esul s sugges ha he manne in which decline is concep- ualized may be a key ac o in de e mining he ypes o explana ions ha esea che s ind and he policy op ions ha decision-make s de i e om hese indings. The e o e, one key con ibu ion o ou esea ch is ha esea che s s udying indus y decline should be mo e ca e ul and explici in how hey concep ualize decline and should conside whe he hei concep ualiza ions ma ch hei implici and explici cause-e ec modeling. Acco dingly, o cla i y empi ical esea ch and heo y de elopmen , we p opose a e o - mula ed de ini ion o indus y decline – and in some sense a ede ini ion o indus y.137 We p opose iewing an indus y om a con igu a ional and iden i y-based pe spec i e. In o he wo ds, i ms in he declining indus y a e membe s o a popula ion cha ac e ized by simila business models138 and indus y ecipes. By business model, we mean he p oduc o e ings, managemen sys em, ne wo k, and alue-c ea ion p ac ices ha (a) ha e a modula s uc u e and (b) a e his o ically con ingen .139,140,141 By indus y ecipe,142 we mean he collec i e me hod o cogni i ely ‘making sense’ o he link be ween he business model and he ma ke 142 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. en i onmen .143 Tha said, in a gi en his o ical momen , some i ms may be membe s o a popula ion o i ms sha ing business model cha ac e is ics and hough s abou indus y bounda ies, p oduc on ology, and epu a ional anking (i.e. who’s who in he indus y).144,145 This membe ship, howe e , does no mean ha a i m could no ha e/ob ain membe ship in o he indus ies o ha i s ope a ional and cogni i e cha ac e is ics will emain he same o e e . This also means ha we ea decline as a collec i e inabili y o unwillingness o change a dominan indus y ecipe and business model, which is hen e lec ed in measu - able de e io a ion o economic pe o mance. Why do indus ies no ans o m? An ob ious akeaway om ou esea ch sample is ha decline is la gely he opposi e o enewal. Building on he analysis o ou collec ion o li e a u e, we p opose ways in which poli ics, ma ke compe i ion, echnology, and capabili ies may ca alyze indus y decline by p e en ing enewal. These ac o s a ge h ee al e na i e ways o enewing he indus y: (1) c ea ing ba ie s o en y; (2) eju ena ing he ma u e indus y h ough inno a ion; and (3) e aming he indus y and i s bounda ies. The indus y li e cycle li e a u e ecognizes all h ee mechanisms as po en ial s a egies agains declining pe o mance.146 Ou con- ibu ion is o iden i y he causal links be ween he an eceden s o decline as speci ic o hese h ee mechanisms o enewal. Table 2 below lis s he po en ial causali ies. Many o hese obse a ions es a e heo e ical p edic ions om he li e a u e on indus ial o ganiza ion,147 capabili ies,148 and new poli ical economy.149 Complemen ing exis ing assump ions, we may iden i y h ee cen al p ocesses ha help explain and p edic he inabili y o enew. The ollowing lis and Figu e 1 p esen hese h ee p ocesses. (1) Hind ance: The p ocess s a s om a combina ion o changing echnology and subsequen ma ke dynamics. Technological change in la es exis ing echnologi- cal capabili ies and oge he wi h insu icien o ganiza ional capabili ies, hinde s enewal. (2) Demo i a ion: Indus y a chi ec u e (i.e. he combina ion o s uc u e and incen- i es150) demo i a es enewal because ac o s a e embedded in o ganiza ional and social ne wo ks, making i di icul o expe imen wi h al e na i e s a egies. (3) Cons ain : Poli ical in e en ions and he ‘web o commi men s’.151 Fo business his o y esea ch, ou heo izing means a shi om s udying he causes and e ec s o decline owa ds s udying he p ocesses o uneasy enewals and o e all dynamics d i ing hese p ocesses. Addi ionally, wi h espec o ou causal ma ix (Table 2) he 12 heo e ical no ions o e ine-g ained s a ing poin s o ocus on speci ic heo e ical ques- ions ins ead o aiming o comp ehensi e explana ions. Fo example, we call o mo e nuanced esea ch on he ole o poli ics in ca alyzing indus y decline. Al hough cu en esea ch has mos ly ocused on he ole o go e nmen s in he c ea ion o non-c ea ion o en y ba ie s, ou p oposi ion is ha go e nmen s’ ole goes much deepe in o inno a ion p ocesses (including esea ch and educa ion) and how go e nmen s e ame he indus y and i s bounda ies. Likewise, he ole o echnology de elopmen would equi e ex ensi e ocused esea ch o e eal he deepe mechanisms d i ing echnological ine ia and hus p oblems in coping wi h compe i ion. Finally, al hough we ind i di icul o loca e e idence on in e io managemen and leade ship a he i m le el as causes o indus y-le el decline, BUSINESS HISTORY 143 Table 2.How decline ca ego ies a ec enewal s a egies. C ea ing en y ba ie s Reju ena ing he ma u e indus y h ough inno a ion Re aming he indus y and i s bounda ies Poli ics in he sho un, he allowance o ma ke bu e s (ca els; monopolies) may slow decline p ocesses. in he long un, an inc easingly weak ma ke posi ion will e en ually esul in collapse Poli ical in e en ions a e no a necessa y o su icien condi ion o he eme gence o new inno a ions. Howe e , he lack o poli ical suppo may dec ease indus ial esea ch and hus accele a e decline p ocesses Poli ical in e en ions a e no a necessa y o su icien condi ion o e aming indus y.Howe e , poli ical in e en ions may ha e a legi imizing e ec 153 on e amed iden i y, hus accele a ing decline p ocesses Ma ke dynamics Ma ke compe i ion may impo an ly mo i a e he c ea- ion o en y ba ie s A e he beginning o pe cei ed indus y decline, ma ke compe i ion may mo i a e i ms o make new p oduc inno a ions A e he beginning o pe cei ed indus y decline, ma ke compe i ion may mo i a e i ms and associa ions o engage in he o ical e aming and business model inno a ions echnology A lack o indus ial esea ch and a cumula i e knowledge gap may mo i a e i ms o seek poli ical p o ec ion in he o m o en y ba ie s La ge-scale indus ial esea ch enables he eme gence o new inno a ions.Likewise, a lack o o insu icien indus ial esea ch is a su icien condi ion o indus y decline echnological capabili ies enable business model inno a ions and indus y e aming.Likewise, insu icien echnological capabili ies p e en o p oblema ize business model inno a ions and indus y e aming Capabili ies Me a-le el capabili ies by indus y leade s and poli ical decision-make s enable changes in he indus y a chi ec u e.Likewise, a lack o such capabili ies con ibu es o indus y decline A la ge se o p e-exis ing capabili ies enables he eme gence o new inno a ions. Likewise, a lack o o ganiza ional capabili ies con ibu es o indus y decline A la ge se o o ganiza ional capabili ies enables indus y e aming and he c ea ion o new business models. Likewise, a lack o o ganiza ional capabili ies con ibu es o indus y decline 144 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. we p opose s udying he ole o poli ical decision-make s and in luen ial igu es in na ional inno a ion sys ems as inhibi o s o enewal.152 Fo example, ea lie s udies o indus y e o- lu ion and inno a ion managemen in Ge many e eal ha speci ic ou comes (ou case indus y decline o enewal) a e he esul s o con igu a ions o ins i u ions, capabili ies, and i m-le el adap a ion. 153 The managemen o challenging si ua ions equally equi es o ches- a ion o ins i u ional amewo ks, enginee ing esea ch and educa ion, and i m-le el adap abili y. The examples by Mu mann and mo e ecen s udies on nanoeconomics sugges ha indus y-le el dynamics should be s udied om below. Such esea ch equi es da a o all i ms in a ce ain popula ion and me hodological ools o cope wi h he eme ging com- plexi y.154 While such a le el o de ailed analysis is no possible o some cases, i opens oppo uni ies o business his o ians o s udy indus y decline wi h a le el o accu acy ha has no been ypically seen in he neighbo ing disciplines in social sciences. Conclusions The analysis o indus y decline li e a u e e ealed ou dominan me a- heo e ical expla- na ions causing indus y decline. The i s is ins i u ional en i onmen , emphasizing he ole o he go e nmen , labo unions, and in luence o special in e es g oups as he causes o decline. The second emphasizes ma ke dynamics and in e na ional compe i ion explaining he decline o indus ies in ce ain geog aphical a eas. This li e a u e indica es ha decline is caused by cos di e ences in p oduc ion, anspo , ma ke ing, e c. The hi d explana ion is echnological: alling behind in echnological de elopmen causes indus y decline. Technological change can e en des oy global indus ies as new p oduc s and se ices c ea e new indus ies ha displace exis ing ones. The ou h widely no ed cause o decline is ela ed o capabili ies, which his o ical s udies usually iden i y as en ep eneu ial ailu e and manage ial de iciencies. Figu e 1.P ocess amewo k o indus y decline and enewal. BUSINESS HISTORY 145 Based on he wide body o decline li e a u e, we ede ined indus y decline and made heo e ical p oposi ions and sugges ions o u he s udies in indus y decline. S okes and Banken s a e ha business his o ians and social scien is s end o be mo e in e es ed in i ms han in indus ies.155 The e o e, al hough he in e play be ween i ms and hei indus ies will be highly aluable when analyzing indus y decline, he in e play be ween indus ies and go e nmen s and inno a ion sys ems mo e b oadly is equally impo an . Finally, he p ima y unde lying message o ou analysis and heo e ical wo k is ha ins ead o o cing a na a i e s uc u e o he s udy o indus y decline, esea che s would bene i om (a) ocusing on he p ocesses o enewal p oblems ins ead o explaining backwa ds om ou - comes and (b) using na owe and heo e ically mo e obus s udy se ings. No es 1. See, o example, Edge on, Science; Supple, B i ish Coal Indus y; Rubens ein, Changing U.S. Au o Indus y; Hoe , Wol Finally Came; Po ac, Thomas, and Baden-Fulle , ‘Compe i i e G oups’. 2. Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’; McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y. 3. S okes and Banken, ‘Cons uc ing an “Indus y”’. 4. Fo example, Elbaum and Lazonick, Decline o B i ish Economy; Mass and Lazonick, ‘B i ish Co on Indus y’. 5. Fo example, Mény and W igh , Poli ics o S eel. 6. C . Simsek, Fox, and Hea ey, ‘Wha ’s Pas is P ologue,’ ha s a s om S inchcombe’s esea ch on imp in ing condi ions. 7. Ramos-Rod íguez and Ruíz-Na a o, ‘Changes’. 8. Sch eibe , C ooks, and S e n, ‘Quali a i e Me a-Analysis’. 9. Bu le , ‘Towa ds He meneu ic Me hod’. 10. C. . Simsek, Fox, and Hea ey, ‘Wha ’s Pas is P ologue’. 11. The decline li e a u e used in his a icle is ma ked wi h as e isk (*) in he lis o e e ences. 12. Row ho n and Wells, De-indus ializa ion. 13. Kois inen, ‘Dealing wi h Deindus ializa ion’; Kois inen, Con on ing Decline; C a s, ‘Fo ging Ahead’; C a s, ‘B i ish Rela i e Economic Decline’. 14. Bozeman, ‘Technology T ans e ’; Ramos‐Rod íguez and Ruíz‐Na a o, ‘Changes’. 15. Wiene , English Cul u e. 16. C a s, ‘Fo ging Ahead’. 17. Boo h, ‘Manu ac u ing Failu e’; Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’; McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y. 18. Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’. 19. C a s, ‘Fo ging Ahead’. 20. Fo example, Koe ne , S ange Dea h. 21. Fo example, Mény and W igh , ‘Poli ics o S eel; Temin, Rela i e Decline; Ti any, Decline o Ame ican S eel’. 22. Ti any, Decline o Ame ican S eel, 158. 23. Pipe , ‘Pa asi es’. 24. DiFilippo, ‘Mili a y Spending’. 25. A o a, B ans e e , and D e , ‘Going So ’. 26. DiFilippo, Mili a y Spending. 27. Lie, ‘Ma ke Powe ’; Manne ing e al., ‘B and Loyal y.’ See also Ca alan Vidal, ‘S ag la ion C isis’ and Donelly, Begley, and Collis, ‘Wes Midlands Au omo i e Indus y’. 28. Jä inen e al., ‘Fall and F agmen a ion’. 29. Fo example, Collins and Robbins, B i ish Cul u e. 30. Man e e e al., ‘Na a i e A ibu ions’. 31. McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y, 32. 32. Ha igan, S a egies o Declining Businesses. 33. Cizakca, ‘P ice His o y’. 146 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. 34. Lo eday, Rise and Decline, 150. 35. Fo example, Cassing and Hillman, ‘Shi ing Compa a i e Ad an age’; Din en ass, Managing Indus ial Decline. 36. DiFilippo, Mili a y Spending; Dunne , Decline o B i ish. See also Pa di, ‘Indus ial Policy’ and Fe ze , ‘Re e sing Gea ’. 37. Fo example, Shepsle, ‘Cong ess’; Keim, ‘Business and Public Policy’. 38. Eisenhamme and Rhodes, ‘Poli ics o Public Sec o ’; Ti any, Decline o Ame ican S eel. See also Fe ze , ‘Re e sing Gea ’. 39. Bakke , ‘Decline and Fall’; Moen, Decline. 40. A gy es and Liebeskind, ‘Con ac ual Commi men s’; Ba ley, ‘Building’. 41. Ti any, Decline o Ame ican S eel. 42. No h, Ins i u ions; Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, ‘Ins i u ions’; Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, ‘Re e sal o Fo une’. 43. Dunlea y, Democ acy; Shepsle, ‘Cong ess’. 44. Miz uchi, S uc u e. 45. Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, ‘Ins i u ions’. 46. G ay and Lowe y, ‘In e es G oup Poli ics’; Hadani and Schule , ‘In Sea ch o El Do ado’. 47. DiFilippo, Mili a y Spending. 48. Richa dson and Dudley, ‘S eel Policy’; Womack, Decline o Ame ican. 49. McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y. 50. DiFilippo, Mili a y Spending. 51. Ti any, Decline o Ame ican S eel. 52. Kois inen, ‘Dealing wi h Deindus ializa ion’. 53. Ti any, Decline o Ame ican S eel, 168. 54. Elbaum and Lazonick, ‘Ins i u ional Pe spec i e,’ 2. 55. Wiene , English Cul u e. 56. Lo enz, ‘E olu iona y Explana ion,’ 931. 57. See Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’. 58. B own, ‘Collapse,’ 596. 59. Manne ing e al., ‘B and loyal y’. 60. Do mois, ‘F ance’s Expe ience’. 61. Cassing and Hillman, ‘Shi ing Compa a i e Ad an age’. 62. Anand and Singh, ‘Asse Redeploymen ’. 63. DiFilippo, Mili a y Spending. 64. Kois inen, ‘Dealing wi h Deindus ializa ion’. 65. Lo enz, Economic Decline in B i ain. 66. Tenold and No d ik, ‘Coping’. 67. Sjög en, ‘Shipping as Gambling’. 68. Poulsen and So nn-F iese, ‘Down all Delayed’. 69. Ojala and Räihä, ‘Na iga ion Ac s’; Lay on, E olu ion. 70. Fo example, Abe and Gou ish, Japanese Success? 71. Bakke , ‘Decline and Fall,’ 310; Male ba, Semiconduc o Business. 72. Chandle , Scale and Scope; Clu e buck and C aine , Decline and Rise; C a s, ‘Fo ging Ahead’; C a s, ‘B i ish Rela i e Economic Decline’; Elbaum and Lazonick, Decline o B i ish Economy; Owen, F om Empi e o Eu ope. Li e a u e e iew in Din en ass, ‘Con e ging Accoun s’ and in Edge on, Science. 73. Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’. 74. Howe, Dundee Tex iles; Lazonick, ‘Compe i ion,’ Lazonick, ‘Indus ial O ganiza ion’. 75. Elbaum, ‘S eel Indus y’; McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y; Owen, F om Empi e o Eu ope. 76. Bu on, Rise and Fall; Lo enz, ‘E olu iona y Explana ion’; Lo enz and Wilkinson, ‘Shipbuilding Indus y’. 77. Chu ch, Rise and Decline; Dunne , Decline o B i ish; Whisle , B i ish Mo o Indus y. 78. B own, ‘Collapse’. 79. Tomlinson, Mo elli, and W igh , Decline o Ju e. BUSINESS HISTORY 147 80. Hend y, Inno a ing o Failu e; Kelly, B i ish Compu e Indus y. 81. Din en ass, Managing Indus ial Decline; Supple, B i ish Coal Indus y. 82. e.g. Asian oy p oduc ion in he 1970s and 1980s, B own, ‘Collapse’. 83. E.g. he Ame ican s. B i ish co on indus y, Lazonick, ‘Indus ial O ganiza ion’. 84. McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y, See also Edge on, Science; Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’. 85. Dosi, Pa i , and Soe e, Economics o Technical Change; Po e , Compe i i e Ad an age o Na ions. 86. Tomlinson, Mo elli, and W igh , Decline o Ju e. 87. Ullman, Ana omy o Indus ial Decline. 88. Lo eday, Rise and Decline. 89. Kaukiainen, Ulos Maailmaan, 11–12. 90. Tomlinson, Mo elli, and W igh , Decline o Ju e. 91. Panza, ‘De-indus ializa ion’. 92. Bakke , ‘Decline and Fall,’ 318. 93. Blecke , ‘Ma kup P icing’. 94. Mu mann, Knowledge. 95. Coke , Fishe ies; Cushman, Guano. 96. Lo eday, Rise and Decline. 97. Hau ala, Suomen Te akauppa. 98. Bakke , ‘Decline and Fall’. 99. B own, ‘Collapse’. 100. Kleppe , ‘Indus y Li e Cycles’. 101. Bakke , ‘Decline and Fall’. 102. Ojala, Vou ilainen, and Lambe g, ‘E olu ion’. 103. Lie, ‘Ma ke Powe ’. 104. Bakke , ‘Decline and Fall’. 105. Cizakca, ‘P ice His o y’. 106. Tenold, I e sen, and Lange, Global Shipping; Ha la is e al., Wo ld’s Key Indus y. 107. Lazonick, ‘Compe i ion’. 108. Panza, ‘De-indus ializa ion’. 109. Manne ing e al., ‘B and Loyal y.’ See also Helpe , ‘S a egy and I e e sibili y’. 110. Male ba, Semiconduc o Business. 111. Bu on, Rise and Fall. 112. Lo enz, Economic Decline in B i ain. 113. Aud e sch, ‘New-Fi m Su i al’. 114. Ma ch, ‘Explo a ion and Exploi a ion’; O’Reilly and Tushman, ‘Ambidex e i y’. 115. Fo example, Teece, ‘Explica ing Dynamic Capabili ies’; Pa el and Pa i , ‘Technological Compe encies’. 116. See also Napoli ano e al., ‘In Sea ch’. 117. Teece, ‘Explica ing Dynamic Capabili ies,’ 1322. 118. Fo example, Ankli and Somme , ‘Role o Managemen ’. 119. A gy es and Liebeskind, ‘Con ac ual Commi men s’. 120. Fo example, Al od, ‘Flagging o Failing?’; Chandle , Visible Hand; Chandle , Scale and Scope. 121. McCloskey, Economic Ma u i y; Edge on, ‘Decline o Declinism’. 122. Lazonick, ‘Compe i ion,’ 37. 123. Lloyd-Jones and Lewis, ‘Pe sonal Capi alism’. 124. Channon, S a egy and S uc u e. 125. Jä inen e al., ‘Fall and he F agmen a ion’. 126. Boo hman, ‘High Finance/Low S a egy’ 127. Ca ney, False P o i s; Lo eday, Rise and Decline. 128. Lazonick, ‘Indus ial O ganiza ion’; Lazonick, ‘Compe i ion’. 129. Fo example, Al o d, ‘Flagging o Failing?’; Bu on, Rise and Fall; Collins and Robbins, B i ish Cul u e; Wiene , English Cul u e. 130. A o a, B ans e e , and D e , ‘Going So ’. 131. Ankli and Somme , ‘Role o Managemen ,’ 230. 148 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. 132. Lo enz, ‘E olu iona y Explana ion’. 133. Po ac e al., ‘Compe i i e G oups’. 134. Magee, ‘Compe ence o Omniscience?’. 135. Laamanen e al., ‘Explana ions o Success’. 136. Teece, ‘Explica ing Dynamic Capabili ies’. 137. See Ca ani, Po ac and Thomas ‘Ca ego ies and Compe i ion’ and S okes and Banken, ‘Cons uc ing an “Indus y”’. 138. C . Romanelli, ‘E olu ion’. 139. Zo and Ami , ‘Fi Be ween’. 140. Aspa a e al., ‘S a egic Managemen ’. 141. Chesb ough and Rosenbloom, ‘Role o he Business Model’. 142. Spende , Indus y Recipes. 143. Po ac e al., ‘Compe i i e G oups’. 144. Fiss, ‘Se -Theo e ic App oach’. 145. Po ac e al., ‘Compe i i e G oups Re isi ed’. 146. Kleppe , Indus y Li e Cycles; Ha igan, S a egies o Declining Businesses; McGahan, ‘How Indus ies Change’; Menzel and Fo nahl, Clus e Li e Cycles. 147. Fo example, Po e , Compe i i e Ad an age. 148. Fo example, Jacobides, ‘A chi ec u e and Design’; Teece, ‘Explica ing Dynamic Capabili ies’. 149. Fo example, Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson, ‘Ins i u ions’ 150. Jacobides, ‘A chi ec u e and Design’. 151. A gy es and Liebeskind, ‘Con ac ual Commi men s’ cons ain enewal a emp s by bo h main aining ba ie s o exi and demo i a ing enewal a emp s in cases in which public au ho i ies suppo he declining indus y ia p o ec ionis policies and subsidies. 152. Ge schenk on, Economic Backwa dness. 153. Mu mann, Knowledge, and Kogu and Zande , ‘Did Socialism’. 154. Mu mann, Knowledge, and B aguinsky and Hounshell, ‘His o y’. 155. S okes and Banken, ‘Cons uc ing an “Indus y”’. Acknowledgemen s We hank he discussan s and e iewe s o 2015 Business His o y Con e ence in Miami, Indus y S udies 2016 Con e ence in Minneapolis, 2017 Academy o Managemen mee ing in A lan a, and wo kshops and semina s a he Uni e si y o Jy äskylä du ing he yea s 2012 and 2017 o commen s and insigh s. We a e indeb ed o Da id Kois inen, A i Hyy inen and Kalle Pajunen o hei commen s and help. Finally, we acknowledge esea ch assis ance o Ja mo Taskinen, Nooa Nykänen, and Aleksi Rauhala in coding and a anging pa s o he esea ch ma e ial. Disclosu e s a emen No po en ial con lic o in e es was epo ed by he au ho s. Funding This wo k was suppo ed by Academy o Finland [g an numbe 269654] No es o con ibu o s D . Juha-An i Lambe g is a P o esso o S a egy and Economic His o y a he Uni e si y o Jy äskylä. His esea ch has ocused on his o y o s a egy and indus y e olu ion. He has published esea ch in he Academy o Managemen Re iew, S a egic Managemen Jou nal, he Jou nal o Managemen S udies, Indus ial and Co po a e Change, Academy o Managemen Lea ning & Educa ion, as well as o he leading BUSINESS HISTORY 149 jou nals. P o . Lambe g has won he 2008 Sloan Founda ion’s Indus y S udies Bes Pape P ize, he 2009 Ca olyn Dex e Awa d in 2009 a he Academy o Managemen Con e ence, and he 2015 Ou s anding A icle o he Yea a he Academy o Managemen Lea ning & Educa ion. D . Ja i Ojala is a p o esso o compa a i e business his o y a he Uni e si y o Jy äskylä and he Edi o -in-Chie in Scandina ian Economic His o y Re iew. He specializes in economic, business and ma i ime his o y. His ecen a icles include “Deskilling and Decline in Skill P emiums du ing he Age o Sail: Swedish and Finnish Seamen, 1751–1913” (wi h Jaakko Pehkonen ja Ja i Elo an a) in Explo a ions in Economic His o y 61 (2016): 85–94 and “Ma i ime His o y: A Heal h Check” (wi h S ig Tenold) in In e na ional Jou nal o Ma i ime His o y 29, no. 2 (2017): 344–354. In 2016 Ojala was awa ded he Finnish Academy o Science and Le e s’ Eino Ju ikkala P ize o ou s anding esea ch in his o y. D . Mi a Pel oniemi is a senio esea che in Technology Managemen a Uni e si y o Jy äskylä. He esea ch ocuses on he in e play o echnological change and indus y s uc u e. She has pub- lished esea ch in In e na ional Jou nal o Managemen Re iews, Technology Analysis and S a egic Managemen , and Games and Cul u e, among o he s. She is also a consul ing edi o o In e na ional Jou nal o Managemen Re iews. ORCID Juha-An i Lambe g h p://o cid.o g/0000-0003-3173-0199 Ja i Ojala h p://o cid.o g/0000-0002-4348-8857 Re e ences NOTE: The decline s udies used in he analysis a e ma ked wi h as e isk (*) Abe, E., and T. R. Gou ish, eds. Japanese Success? B i ish Failu e? Compa isons in Business Pe o mance since 1945. Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 1997.* Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, and J. A. Robinson. “Re e sal o Fo une: Geog aphy and Ins i u ions in he Making o he Mode n Wo ld Income Dis ibu ion.” The Qua e ly Jou nal o Economics 117, no. 4 (2002): 1231–1292. doi:10.1162/003355302320935025. Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, and J. A. Robinson. “Ins i u ions as a Fundamen al Cause o Long-Run G ow h.” In Handbook o Economic G ow h, edi ed by P Aghion and S Du lau , 385–472. Ams e dam: Else ie , 2005. Al o d, B. W. E. “Flagging o ailing? B i ish Economic Pe o mance, 1880–1914.” In The B i ish Indus ial Decline, edi ed by J. P. Do mois and M. Din en ass, 23–56. London: Rou ledge, 1999.* Alladin, MI. “Economic De elopmen in a Plan a ion Economy: The Decline o he Suga Indus y in Mau i ius.” S udies in Compa a i e In e na ional De elopmen (SCID) 21, no. 4 (1986):88–106.* Anand, J. and H. Singh. “Asse Redeploymen , Acquisi ions and Co po a e S a egy in Declining Indus ies.” S a egic Managemen Jou nal 18, no. S1 (1997): 99–118.* doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097- 0266(199707)18:1+<99::AID-SMJ928>3.0.CO;2-B Ankli, R. E. and E. Somme . “The Role o Managemen in he Decline o he Ame ican S eel Indus y.” Business and Economic His o y 25, no. 1 (1996): 217–231.* A gy es, N. S., and J. P. Liebeskind. “Con ac ual Commi men s, Ba gaining Powe , and Go e nance Insepa abili y: Inco po a ing His o y in o T ansac ion Cos Theo y.” Academy o Managemen Re iew 24, no. 1 (1999): 49–63. doi:10.5465/AMR.1999.1580440. A o a, A., L. G. B ans e e , and M. D e . “Going So : How he Rise o So wa e-Based Inno a ion Led o he Decline o Japan’s IT Indus y and he Resu gence o Silicon Valley.” Re iew o Economics and S a is ics 95, no. 3 (2013): 757–775. * doi:10.1162/REST_a_00286. Aspa a, J., J.-A. Lambe g, A. Laukia, and H. Tikkanen. “S a egic Managemen o Business Model T ans o ma ion: Lessons om Nokia.” Managemen Decision 49, no. 4 (2011): 622–647. doi:10.1108/00251741111126521. 156 J.-A. LAMBERG ET AL. Temin, P. “The Rela i e Decline o he B i ish S eel Indus y, 1880-1913.” In Indus ializa ion in Two Sys ems: Essays in Hono o Alexande Ge schenk on, edi ed by H Roso sky, 67–83. New Yo k: John Wiley & sons, 1966.* Tenold, S., and H. W. No d ik. “Coping wi h he In e na ional Shipping C isis o he 1970s: A S udy o Managemen Responses in No wegian Oil Tanke Companies.” In e na ional Jou nal o Ma i ime His o y 8, no. 2 (1996): 33–69. doi:10.1177/084387149600800203. Tenold, S., M. J. I e sen, and E. Lange, eds. Global Shipping in Small Na ions: No dic Expe iences a e 1960. Basings oke, UK: Palg a e Macmillan, 2012. Ti any, P. A. The Decline o Ame ican S eel: How Managemen , Labo , and Go e nmen Wen W ong. Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 1988. Ti a soo, Nick. “B i ish Managemen 1945-1964: Re o me s and he S uggle o Imp o e S anda ds.” In Japanese Success? B i ish Failu e? Compa isons in Business Pe o mance since 1945, edi ed by E. Abe and T. R. Gou ish, 77–98. Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 1997.* Tomlinson, J., C. Mo elli, and V. W igh . The Decline o Ju e: Managing Indus ial Change. London: Picke ing & Cha o, 2011. Ullmann, J.E. The Ana omy o Indus ial Decline: P oduc i i y, In es men , and Loca ion in U.S. Manu ac u ing. New Yo k: Quo um Books, 1988.* Valk, P. A ican Indus y in Decline: The Case o Tex iles in Tanzania in he 1980s. Basings oke: Macmillan in associa ion wi h he Ins i u e o Social S udies, 1996*. Whisle , T. R. The B i ish Mo o Indus y, 1945–1994: A Case S udy in Indus ial Decline. Ox o d: Ox o d Uni e si y P ess, 1999*. Wiene , M. J. English Cul u e and he Decline o he Indus ial Spi i , 1850–1980. Camb idge, UK: Camb idge Uni e si y P ess, 1981*. Wi eloos uijn, A. V. “B idging Beha io al and Economic Theo ies o Decline: O ganiza ional Ine ia, S a egic Compe i ion, and Ch onic Failu e.” Managemen Science 44, no. 4 (1998): 501–519*. Womack, J. P. The Decline o he Ame ican Au o Indus y and he Sea ch o Indus ial Policy. Camb idge, MA: Fu u e o he Au omobile P og am, 1981*. Zo , C., and R. Ami . “The Fi be ween P oduc Ma ke S a egy and Business Model: Implica ions o Fi m Pe o mance.” S a egic Managemen Jou nal 29, no. 1 (2008): 1–26. doi:10.1002/smj.642.