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Cost Assessment Modelling of Treatments for Highly Active Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Mankinen, Petri,Lundström, Tuomas,Soini, Erkki,Sumelahti, Marja-Liisa,Ruutiainen, Juhani,Niskala, Ulla,Järvinen, Elina

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ORIGINAL RESEARCH Cost Assessment Modelling of Treatments for Highly Active Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Petri Mankinen .Tuomas Lundstro ¨m.Erkki Soini . Marja-Liisa Sumelahti .Juhani Ruutiainen .Ulla Niskala . Elina Ja ¨rvinen Received: November 1, 2019 / Published online: December 23, 2019 ÓThe Author(s) 2019 ABSTRACT Introduction: Cost assessment modelling (CAM) of treatments in highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis was conducted. Methods: The CAM was developed using the Rprogramming language. The PICOSTEPS health technology assessment framework was applied in the CAM. Modelled patients were 280 adults with highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis eligible for disease-modifying treatment. Intervention was cladribine tablets, a new and reimbursed oral treatment for highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis in Finland. Comparators included fingolimod, the most used oral reimbursed treatment for the highly active disease, and natalizumab, the most used intravenous treatment, and a treatment mix (80% use fingolimod, 20% use natalizumab) in Finland. Outcomes presented expected annual and cumulative drug-associated costs in the overall population and per patient. Setting was modelled public specialist care in Finland. Time was set to 4 years, without discounting. Effects covered expected drug-associated costs (screening, acquisition, administration, monitoring, adverse events, travelling, productivity). Perspective was a limited societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses regarding all PICOSTEPS components were conducted. Results: Cladribine tablets were projected to be cost saving in comparison to fingolimod, Petri Mankinen and Tuomas Lundstro ¨m contributed equally to this article. Enhanced Digital Features To view enhanced digital features for this article go to https://doi.org/10.6084/ m9.figshare.11295062. P. Mankinen (&)T. Lundstro ¨mE. Soini ESiOR Oy, Tulliportinkatu 2 LT4 70100, Kuopio, Finland e-mail: [email protected] T. Lundstro ¨m e-mail: [email protected] E. Soini e-mail: [email protected] URL: https://www.linkedin.com/in/erkkisoini/ M.-L. Sumelahti Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, 33014-TaY, Tampere, Finland J. Ruutiainen Finnish Neuro Society, Vaihema ¨entie 10, 21250 Masku, Finland J. Ruutiainen Department of Neurology, University of Turku, PO Box 52, 20521 Turku, Finland U. Niskala E. Ja ¨rvinen Merck Finland, Keilaranta 6, 02150 Espoo, Finland E. Ja ¨rvinen Department of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 8, Haartmaninkatu, 02900 Helsinki, Finland Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12325-019-01186-z natalizumab and treatment mix. The respective modelled savings were €4,598,742, €16,249,701 and €6,928,934 in the overall population, and €16,424, €58,035 and €24,746 per patient, respectively, during the 4 years. The most important cost driver was drug costs, representing 96.3%, 96.0% and 83.4% of modelled costs associated with cladribine tablets, fingolimod and natalizumab, respectively. Cladribine tablets sustained their affordability in the sensitivity analyses. From the perspective of health care payer, cladribine tablets’ savings were projected to be €4,514,509, €15,145,366 and €6,640,680 in the overall population, and €16,123, €54,091 and €23,717 per patient in comparison to fingolimod, natalizumab and treatment mix, respectively. Conclusion: Based on the CAM, cladribine tablets were projected to robustly save modelled drug-associated costs in comparison to fingolimod, natalizumab and their mix in Finland. Keywords: Cladribine tablets; Cost; Fingolimod; Multiple sclerosis; Natalizumab; Productivity; Travelling Key Summary Points Why carry out this study? Multiple sclerosis results in considerable financial burden. Research of costs in highly active multiple sclerosis is scarce, especially in the Finnish setting. Drug-related costs of three multiple sclerosis treatments and a treatment mix of fingolimod and natalizumab in highly active relapsing multiple sclerosis were modelled over 4 years in Finland. What was learned from the study? Drug-related costs of cladribine tablets were €71,413 per patient. The respective per-patient costs for fingolimod, natalizumab and treatment mix were €16,424; €58,035; and €24,746 higher, respectively. Cladribine tablets were robustly projected to be a cost-saving treatment option compared to fingolimod, natalizumab and their treatment mix in the Finnish setting. INTRODUCTION Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated disorder of the central nervous system with a wide heterogeneity in the clinical course. Most patients are classified as having a relapsing–remitting MS (RRMS) [1], which is further classified as active or highly active, based on the relapse rate and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings [2]. Approximately 4–14% of all MS patients, depending on the definition used, already have a highly active disease course from the onset [3]. During the disease trajectory, this subgroup of patients is marked by a rapid accumulation of functional deficits and MRI activity, despite treatment with one or more disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) [4]. MS is a leading cause of disability in adults, and requires lifelong treatment [5,6]. The average time from MS onset to death is 35 years [7]. There is no cure for MS, but DMDs prevent relapses and delay disease progression [8]. According to the Finnish treatment guidelines, patients eligible to receive a DMD for highly active disease need to show one relapse in the previous year and at least one T1 gadolinium-enhancing lesion or 9 or more T2 lesions while on therapy with a DMD, or two or more relapses in the previous year, whether or not on DMD [9]. Three approved DMDs for the highly active disease are used in Finland: cladribine tablets, fingolimod and natalizumab [10–12]. Cladribine tablets are approved for use for the treatment of adult patients with highly active relapsing MS, including RRMS, and relapsing secondary progressive MS populations [10]. Finland is a high-risk MS region with a prevalence of 280/100,000 in southwest parts of the country [13], and a nationwide prevalence Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 801 estimate between 10,000 and 11,000 patients, corresponding to a crude prevalence of 180–200/100,000 [14]. The estimated annual economic burden of MS in Finland using a bottom–up approach of costing was €46,994 per patient on average and increasing from €10,835 to €109,901 in parallel with advancing disability [15]. Based on a modelled economic evaluation of RRMS patients who have initiated a DMD, effective and reasonably priced DMDs may compensate for various RRMS-related costs in a 15-year time horizon [16]. The impact of MS medication costs on overall healthcare systems has been assessed by per-member per-period costs, where MS represents the fourth most expensive therapy class following inflammatory conditions, diabetes and cancer [17]. In Finland, the estimated proportion of total costs attributable to DMDs is high over 1-year [15] and moderately high (11–18%, depending on DMD) over 15-year [16] time horizons among RRMS patients who have initiated DMD and were valid for a publicly reimbursed DMD. The costs and cost-effectiveness of DMDs indicated for highly active disease in Finland have not previously been published. In foreign settings and modelled comparisons, cladribine tablets have been observed to be dominant (i.e. lower cost and higher effectiveness) in various settings: compared to fingolimod in Spanish patients with highly active relapsing disease [18], compared to alemtuzumab and natalizumab in English patients with highly active RRMS [19], and compared to alemtuzumab and fingolimod in patients with highly active RRMS as well as compared to natalizumab in patients with rapidly evolving severe disease in the Dutch setting [20]. A cost assessment model (CAM) was developed to project the costs of DMDs for highly active disease in Finland. METHODS The CAM was developed with the programming language Rto project drug-related costs of selected highly active MS therapies based on input parameters described below. The CAM approach was developed for easy and safe estimation of costs over time. To ensure the coverage of important features, PICOSTEPS principle [16,21–23] was applied in the CAM dashboard. PICOSTEPS (Patients–Intervention–Comparators–Outcomes–Setting–Time–Effects–Perspective–Sensitivity analysis) is a framework for reporting health economic studies. It covers the essential parts of health economic evaluations in their order of importance [16,21,23]; (Table 1). PICOSTEPS has been used in multiple Finnish health economic studies and in a Current Care guideline [16,21,23]. Patients The yearly number of Finnish relapsing MS patients with highly active disease, who initiate DMD or switch from another DMD, is estimated to be approximately 280, based on Finnish reimbursement statistics. Based on this estimation, the size of the modelled patient population was chosen to be 280. Patients were modelled to have cladribine tablets 10 mg (cumulative dose 3.5 mg/kg over 2 years) (intervention), or alternatively (1) fingolimod 0.5 mg, (2) natalizumab 300 mg or (3) a treatment mix consisting of 80% patients using fingolimod and 20% of patients using natalizumab based on the Finnish clinical practice, and their similar patient populations defined in their summaries of product characteristics [10–12] (comparators). Highly active disease patients are defined by clinical or imaging features according to the Finnish treatment guidelines and reimbursement criteria [9,24,25]. Seventy-two percent of patients were women in the model input [16]. Patients were assumed to stay alive until the end of follow-up (4 years). The analysis was based on modelling, and the data utilized were obtained from previously conducted studies. The study did not include any new studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors. Thus, the study was not registered with any clinical trial database. 802 Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 Table 1 PICOSTEPS applied in the highly active relapsing MS cost assessment model (CAM) input PICOSTEPS [16,21–23] Definition Respective sources P: patients Disease: highly active relapsing MS [9–12,24,25] Feasible MS population in Finland: 280 patients Sales statistics estimate for dynamic population Gender: 72% women [16] Weight: 86.4 kg male, 72.4 kg female [26] I: intervention Cladribine tablets [10] C: comparators Fingolimod and natalizumab, and a treatment mix (80% use fingolimod, 20% use natalizumab) [11], Finnish clinical practice for natalizumab, sales statistics for the treatment mix O: outcomes Expected annual and cumulative drug-associated costs, cost dispersion Rationale: [27,28] S: setting Modelled specialist care in Finland [10–12]; clinical practice T: time Four years drug acquisition costs at June 2019 values, hospital district tariffs at 2019 values, other costs at year 2018 values, no discounting Rationale: [27,28] E: effects Drug-associated costs (screening, acquisition, administration, monitoring, adverse events, travelling, productivity) SmPCs [10–12] or clinical practice; see Tables 2and 3 P: perspective Drug-related costs (partially societal) Logical assumption S: sensitivity analyses P: 50% or 90% female Assumption P: average age 36 years [16] P: age–weight distribution [26] I: adherence decreases 10% each year As above, assumption C: adherence decreases 10% each year Assumption S: no screening Assumption T: 3-year results Assumption E: fingolimod use based on clinical practice Finnish clinical practice (fingolimod) E: natalizumab use based on Tysabri SmPC [12] E: natalizumab administration based on Finnish price tariffs [29,30] E: All cost inputs ±20% Assumption E: fingolimod used after cladribine tablets (sequential approach) Assumption (risks: [31]) P: direct costs [32] P: direct costs without travelling costs [32] P: drug costs alone [32] Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 803 Table 2 Monitoring and AEs associated with each drug based on their respective summaries of product characteristics Treatment Cladribine Fingolimod Natalizumab Cost driver Expense Screening Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Screening Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Screening Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Monitoring Electrocardio-gram (EKG), 6 h 1 Full blood count, FBC 1 2 3 1 1111 JC virus antibodies 122 Latent infections 1 1 Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of head and spine 1 11111 11111 1111 Ophtalmologic examination 1 Transaminases, bilirubin 1 5111 Varicella zoster (VZ) antibodies 11 VZ vaccination 0.15 0.15 Test taking 1 23001 51111 0022 Adverse event Abnormal laboratory findings related to liver function a 0.0555 0.0555 0.0555 0.0555 Lymphopenia b 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.0408 0.0408 0.0408 0.0408 a [39] b (cladribine tablets) [40], (fingolimod) [39] 804 Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 Table 3 Unit costs utilized in the analysis Cost driver Expense Cost (€) Reference Drug acquisition Cladribine 10 mg, 1 tbl 2433.69 FMT 06/19 [34] Cladribine 10 mg, 4 tbl 9624.82 FMT 06/19 [34] Cladribine 10 mg, 6 tbl 14,418.91 FMT 06/19 [34] Fingolimod 0.5 mg 7tbl 427.62 FMT 06/19 [34] Fingolimod 0.5 mg 28tbl 1612.99 FMT 06/19 [34] Natalizumab 300 mg 2250.00 FMT 06/19 [34] Drug administration Natalizumab NaCl for infusion 0.87 FMT 06/19 [34] Natalizumab infusion administration e 309.82 [38] indexed to 2018 value a Monitoring Electrocardiogram (EKG), 6 h f 587.00 [30] Full blood count, FBC 4.60 [35] JC virus antibodies 70.00 [35] Latent infections 120.53 [35] Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of head and spine e 320.00 [30] Ophthalmologic examination e 215.60 [36] indexed to 2018 value a Transaminases, bilirubin 4.00 [35] Varicella zoster (VZ) antibodies 20.00 [35] VZ vaccination d 203.68 [36] indexed to 2018 value a /FMT 6/2019 [34] Test taking d 5.52 [37] indexed to 2018 value a Adverse event Abnormal laboratory findings related to liver function d 96.26 b [36] indexed to 2018 value a , VSSHP [35] Lymphopenia d 226.83 c [36] indexed to 2018 value a ,[35] Travelling Primary care 7.40 [37] indexed to 2018 value a Secondary care 37.80 [37] indexed to 2018 value a Productivity loss Primary care (1/4 day) 64.24 [42] indexed to 2018 value a Secondary care (half a day) 128.48 [42] indexed to 2018 value a Full day 256.96 [42] indexed to 2018 value a FMT Finnish Medicines Tariff a Official Statistics of Finland [41] b Blood test, specialist paper consultation, specialist telephone consultation, 5% of patients an additional specialist visit and upper stomach ultrasound c Lymphocytes differential count, specialist paper consultation, specialist telephone consultation d Productivity loss and travelling cost for this procedure estimated to be day e Productivity loss and travelling cost for this procedure estimated to be day f Productivity loss and travelling cost for this procedure estimated to be full day Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 805 Resources and Costs The primary focus on analytical perspective was on drug-related costs. The perspective was partially societal, considering direct drug-related costs, such as drug acquisition and administration costs, monitoring and adverse events (AEs), as well as indirect drug-related costs such as productivity loss (absenteeism) and travelling costs related to the health care resources used. This perspective considers the direct costs to the same extent as the Finnish medicines agency (Fimea) guidelines on the evaluation of hospital products [33]. Drug-associated screening, acquisition, administration (also including infusions where relevant), monitoring, AEs, travelling, and productivity costs (Tables 2and 3) were based on Finnish practices, sources and price tariffs [16,29,30,34–38], and SmPCs [10–12]. Official Finnish list prices of drugs from June 2019 were applied. No treatment pauses or discontinuations were permitted in the base case, but their impact was tested in the sensitivity analyses. Cladribine tablets were used according to the Mavenclad SmPC, i.e. two annual treatment courses giving a cumulative dose of 3.5 mg/kg over 2 years and applying 86.4 kg average weight for men and 72.4 kg average weight for women (average adult weight in nationally representative FinTerveys study [26]). In sensitivity analyses, age and age–weight distributions were applied to inform the dosing of cladribine tablets [26]. In addition, 24% of cladribine tablets users were assumed to initiate fingolimod on the fourth year, based on the proportion of relapse-free patients (76%) in a CLARITY extension study [31]. Conservatively (i.e. not benefitting cladribine tablets), fingolimod users collected a 7-tablet pack and 13 28-tablet packs from a community pharmacy during the first year of their treatment, and 13 28-tablet packs annually as per label [11], which is the most affordable treatment practice for fingolimod. In the sensitivity analysis, 14 28-tablet packs were assumed to be collected from a community pharmacy during the first year based on the Finnish clinical practice. Since cladribine tablets and fingolimod have restricted reimbursements in Finland, and they are used in an outpatient setting [24,25], the retail prices of Finnish medicine tariff [34] excluding value added tax (VAT 10%) were used. Likewise, natalizumab was conservatively assumed to be administered 12 times per year in a hospital setting based on the Finnish clinical practice and the most affordable treatment practice for natalizumab. In the sensitivity analysis, 14 natalizumab infusions took place during the first year and 13 during subsequent years based on the 28-day dosing interval described in the SmPC [12]. The official wholesale price was used for hospital-administered natalizumab [34] and its administration cost was accrued from a Finnish study [38]. In the sensitivity analyses, two other sources for the administration costs were applied. The administration costs (€934.50 and €373.00) were based on a drug-inclusive administration cost (€2623.00) found in the price tariff of the Hospital District of Pirkanmaa, Finland, [29]of which the cost of administration was derived from the total cost by subtracting (1) the official wholesale price of natalizumab dose (€2250.00) and (2) the average drug price of natalizumab (€1688.50) found in the price tariff of the hospital district of Uusimaa, Finland [30]. Statistical significance related to risk assessment can be impacted, for example, by assumed statistical power, accrued sample size and follow-up time. Thus, the AEs for CAM were accounted for by annualizing the AE probabilities [43] of clinical trials [39,40,44], and by applying an inclusion threshold of C4% between the active treatment and placebo in the AE probability [16]. Finally, analytical perspective can have a considerable impact on the outcomes of health economic evaluation (e.g. [16,21,45–47]). In this modelled assessment, productivity costs were based on absenteeism due to drug-associated screening, infusions, monitoring, AEs, and travelling. Absenteeism was valued based on the human capital approach using a Finnish valuation. Sensitivity analyses covered different costing perspectives. 806 Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 Outcomes Primary outcomes included undiscounted modelled annual and cumulative treatment-related costs presented in the overall population of 280 patients and per patient. The cost drivers were defined in year 2018 (unit costs in older than year 2018 values were indexed to the year 2018 real value) and 2019 values. Annual costs were calculated by adding up the cost drivers for each treatment per year, and the cumulative costs by adding up the annual costs and the screening costs for each treatment. Extensive deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted for all PICOSTEPS inputs. RESULTS Overall, the intervention (cladribine tablets) were projected to reduce the expected drug associated costs in comparison to the comparators (fingolimod, natalizumab, treatment mix) during the 4-year treatment period and associated screening (Figs. 1,2; Tables 4,5). Annual Costs Annual modelled costs during the 4-year treatment period were relatively stable for the comparators, but not for cladribine tablets (Figs. 1, 2; Tables 4,5). Cladribine tablets are acquired in Fig. 1 Annual acquisition costs per patient Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 807 the first 2 years, whereas the comparators are acquired continuously. The modelled total screening costs of cladribine tablets were €619 per patient and €173,303 in the overall population. The modelled total screening costs of fingolimod, natalizumab, and treatment mix were €502, €509, and €504 per patient and €140,674, €142,449, and €141,029, respectively, in the overall population. In the first year, the modelled costs of cladribine tablets were €35,007 per patient and €9,802,041 in the population. In comparison, the modelled costs of fingolimod, natalizumab, and the treatment mix were €23,034, €32,129, and €24,853 per patient and €6,449,493, €8,996,169, and €6,958,828 in the overall population, respectively. The modelled costs in the second year with cladribine tablets were €34,927 per patient and €9,779,547 in the overall population. In comparison, the second-year modelled costs of fingolimod, natalizumab, and the treatment mix were €21,434, €32,129, and €23,573 per patient and €6,001,421, €8,996,169, and €6,600,370 in the overall population, respectively. During the third and fourth years, the modelled drug-associated costs remained unchanged in both years for each treatment. Because cladribine tablets had no drug-acquisition costs Fig. 2 Drug-associated screening costs, and annual monitoring, administration, AEs, travelling, and productivity costs per patient. S =Screening 808 Adv Ther (2020) 37:800–818 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Funding. Sponsorship, and the journal’s Rapid Service fee and Open Access charge for this study were funded by Merck Finland, Espoo, Finland, an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. Authorship. All named authors meet the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) criteria for authorship for this manuscript: study: management (ES, UN), conceptualization (UN, ES, EJ, MLS, JR), design (all); data: acquisition and interpretation (all); analysis: design (all), implementation (TL, ES, PM), interpretation (all); manuscript: initial drafting (ES, PM, TL), critical revision (all), final approval (all), all authors take responsibility for the integrity of the work as a whole, and all of them have given final approval for the version to be published. PM is the guarantor. PM and TL had full access to all of the data in this study and take complete responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Disclosures. Petri Mankinen is an employee of EsiOR Oy, Kuopio, Finland, but does not hold drug company shares. Tuomas Lundstro ¨misan employee of EsiOR Oy, Kuopio, Finland, but does not hold drug company shares. Erkki Soini is an employee of ESiOR Oy, Kuopio, Finland, and is also a shareholder, board member and the CEO of ESiOR Oy. EsiOR carries out studies, statistical analysis, consultancy, education, reporting, health economic evaluations and market access services for several pharmaceutical, food industry, diagnostics and device companies, hospitals, consultancies, academic institutions and projects, including the producers and marketers of MS treatments. However, they do not hold drug company shares. Marja-Liisa Sumelahti is an employee at Suomen Terveystalo, Finland, and a Senior Lecturer in Neurology at Tampere University, Finland. Juhani Ruutiainen is an employee of Finnish Neuro Society, Masku, Finland, and a Senior Lecturer in Neurology at the University of Turku, Turku, Finland. The Finnish Neuro Society looks after the interest of people with MS and rare neurological diseases. Ulla Niskala is an employee of Merck Finland, Espoo Finland, an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. Elina Ja ¨rvinen is an employee of Merck Finland, Espoo Finland, an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. All authorship decisions were based on scientific considerations. Compliance with Ethics Guidelines. The analysis in this article is based on previously conducted studies and does not involve any new studies of human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors. Data Availability. All data generated or analysed during this study are included in this published article. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. 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