Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products and applications of ICT innovation

This is a self-archived version of an original article. This version may differ from the original in pagination and typographic details. Author(s): Title: Year: Version: Copyright: Rights: Rights url: Please cite the original version: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products and applications of ICT innovation © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Accepted version (Final draft) Chen, Sihua; Qiu, Han; Xiao, Hua; He, Wei; Mou, Jian; Siponen, Mikko Chen, S., Qiu, H., Xiao, H., He, W., Mou, J., & Siponen, M. (2021). Consumption behavior of ecofriendly products and applications of ICT innovation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 287, Article 125436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125436 2021 1 Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products and applications of ICT innovation By Sihua Chena, Han Qiua, Hua Xiaoa, b, *, Wei Hec, *, Jian Moud, Mikko Siponene a School of Information Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, China b Library, Jiangxi Agricultural University, China c School of Business Administration, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, China d School of Business Pusan National University, Republic of Korea e Faculty of Information Technology, University of Jyvaskyla, Finland *Corresponding author: Dr. Hua Xiao Library, Jiangxi Agricultural University Nanchang, 330045, PR China Phone: (86)-791-83813249 Fax: (86)-791-83813264 Email: [email protected] Prof. Wei He School of Business Administration Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics Nanchang 330013, PR China Phone: (86)-791-83816813 Fax: (86)-791-83816019 Email: [email protected] 2 Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products and applications of ICT innovation Abstract The purchase of eco-friendly products is encouraged by the governments due to its contributions to the sustainable development of the environment. It is therefore important to examine factors influencing the purchase of eco-friendly products. This paper contributes to this domain. Based on the attitude-behavior-context (ABC) theory, this paper constructs a conceptual model, which explores how a consumer's perceived effectiveness affects his or her purchase of eco-friendly products. In this model, this paper attempts to examine the mediating role of consumption attitude of eco-friendly products as well as the moderating effect of applications of information and communication technologies (ICT) innovation. Moreover, by building a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), this paper further tests the conceptual model. More importantly, based on the HMM, the consumption probabilities of eco-friendly products of different perceived effectiveness under different applications of ICT innovation are computed. Furthermore, based on a dynamic time series, the consumption transition probability of eco-friendly products is further calculated. In addition, this paper explains and calculates the concepts continuity, dependence and inertia in consumption of eco-friendly products. Based on it, the algorithm is used to forecast the consumption behavior of the real environment to verify the reliability of the HMM and the accuracy of probability calculation. This paper contributes the extension of the existing studies and the provision of management implications and guidance for the consumption practice of eco-friendly products. Keywords: ICT; sustainability; eco-friendly product; consumer attitude; consumption behavior; perceived effectiveness Manuscript Word count: 15520 3 1. Introduction With the increased material consumption, people are facing more and more serious pollution from the consumption of products (Shao et. al., 2017; Song et al., 2019; Yuan et al., 2018). As such, people are compelled to reflect on their traditional consumption behaviors. Comparing with the traditional way of consumption, the eco-friendly consumption, of which the core is sustainable consumption, has increasingly become a positive way for people to alleviate environmental degradation (Grinstein, 2009).As a part of the green economy, eco-friendly consumption behavior is an important driving force for sustainable development. It has such advantages as high resource utilization efficiency and friendly to ecology, which has been widely concerned by the public (Jayaraman et al., 2019). Considering the important influence of eco-friendly consumption behavior on ecological environment, how to promote consumers’ eco-friendly consumption behavior is the Chinese government’s practical need to build the ecological civilization. Moreover, it is also the research focus of scholars in the field of consumer behavior. With the increase of consumers' awareness of eco-friendly products, more and more people express their willingness to choose eco-friendly products (Yadav et al., 2019). Moreover, because of the stricter environmental regulations and the constrains of environmental resources, numerous companies commence to produce and sell eco-friendly products (Khan et al., 2017; Kumar et al., 2018; Yadav et al., 2019). To promote these eco-friendly products, it is important for these companies to understand consumers' perception and consumption attitude towards such products (Cherrier et al., 2011). In practice, however, although consumers say that they are very concerned about environmental issues, it is found difficult for them to turn their concerns into the actual consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. The degree to which sustainability enhances preference depends on the type of benefit consumers most value for the product category in question (Luchs et al., 2010). Driven by these practical needs, scholars began to focus on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products and explore what influencing consumers use of such products (Joshi et al., 2015; Tripathi et al., 2016). At present, scholars have studied the influence of demographic characteristics, psychological variables and external contextual factors on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Demographic characteristics focus on the influence of gender, age, monthly income, occupation and education on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Roman et al., 2015). Psychological 4 variables focus on the influence of perceived effectiveness, attitude, environmental protection values and environmental concerns on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Nair et al., 2016; Costa et al., 2016; Awuni et al., 2016; Richa et al., 2018; Li et al.,2019). External contextual factors mainly focus on the impact of product advertisement, innovative products and information on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Lin et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2017, Sheng et al., 2019). Some scholars believed that an individual’s perceived effectiveness had a strong explanatory power on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. The stronger the individual's perceived effectiveness is, the stronger the individual's belief in changing the environmental status quo will be, and the more inclined to adopt the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Berger et al. (1992) found that individual perceived effectiveness was an important variable affecting environmental attitudes and consumer behaviors. The research of Roberts (1996) further showed that the individual perceived effectiveness was the most significant variable that influenced an individual's eco-friendly consumption behavior more than other psychological variables and demographic variables. A positive attitude towards eco-friendly products is a good starting point to produce eco-friendly consumer behavior. Some studies showed that about 30% of consumers had a positive attitude towards eco-friendly products. These consumers pay more attention to ecological packaging, food sources and other related issues. They believe that eco-friendly products are better in quality, safety, environmental protection, and are more beneficial to human health and environment (Vermeir et al., 2006; Tanner et al., 2003), and they are more likely to buy eco-friendly products (Liu et al, 2012). In other words, attitude plays the function of entry notion in the formation of consumers' willingness to consume. And approval of attitude is more likely to generate positive consumption intention (Sondergaard et al., 2005). If consumers are concerned about environmental protection, they are more open-minded and willing to make their own contribution to environmental protection through their own efforts, such as purchasing solar energy equipment, organic food and choosing to use green electricity (Welsch et al., 2009). More and more attention has been paid to the consumption concept of "saving on resources, environmental protection and keeping health". The public gradually realize that the use of resources and pollution emissions can be reduced through eco-friendly consumption. However, with the improvement of consumers' environmental perceived effectiveness and eco-friendly attitude, the market share of eco-friendly products has not increased significantly (Bray et al., 2011). That indicates that the public's environmental perceived effectiveness does not necessarily turn into eco-friendly consumption behavior. 5 There is a gap between an individual’s environmental perceived effectiveness and his eco-friendly consumption behavior (Vermeir et al., 2008; Tseng et al., 2013; Moser, 2015). To effectively promote the consumption of eco-friendly products, it is crucial to find out the reasons for this "gap" and improve the congruence between intention and behavior. Some studies found that individuals showed a strong preference for eco-friendly products because of their perception of the benefits eco-friendly products brought to human health and environment. However, once entering the consumption process, individuals will weigh the convenience and functional attributes of products. The result is often that they prefer to the convenience attribute of products when making actual consumption decisions. And this leads to the gap between their consumption attitude and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Olson, 2013; Chen et al., 2014). Moreover, Antil (1984) did not support that perceived effectiveness had an important impact on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. As such, this paper argues that the relationship between individual perceived effectiveness and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products may be moderated by some factors, such as innovative application of technology (Lassar et al., 2005; Chang et al., 2007). In addition, the innovative application of information and communication technology (ICT) may produces technical efficiency in the production and promotion of eco-friendly products. Take promotion of eco-friendly products as an example. People can recommend, forward and deliver information about eco-friendly products or services to relatives and friends on various network platforms. Such interaction based on networking can exert an important influence on an individual's behaviors (Zhang et al., 2018, 2019, 2020), such as engendering an individual's consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Huang, 2012).It is found that some individuals are more willing to accept product innovation than others (Midgley et al., 1978; Feng et al., 2019), that is, the innovative application of ICT to eco-friendly products. Adjei and Clark (2010) believed that an individual’s eco-friendly consumption behavior basically depends on such innovation. ICT innovation has greatly influenced people's lives and has become an important context for current theoretical research (Zhao et al., 2017). Drawing upon the attitude behavior context (ABC) theory (Guagnano et al., 1995), this paper attempts to delineate the role and influence of ICT innovation on an individual's consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. We empirically tests the moderating effect of ICT innovation on the relationship between individual perception of eco-friendly products and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. In doing so, this paper attempts to make contributions to 6 bridge the gap between individual consumption attitude and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. It generates new insights to the theoretical research on consumption of eco-friendly products. Furthermore, it provides theoretical support and empirical guidance for companies to produce eco-friendly products and contributes to promote the consumption of eco-friendly products in the whole society. 2. Literature review and theoretical analysis 2.1. Factors influencing eco-friendly consumption behavior The eco-friendly consumption behavior is the consumption behavior that consumers strive to protect the ecological environment and minimize the negative impact of consumption on the environment during the purchase, use and post-treatment of products (Lao, 2013). Specifically, it includes the purchase of energy-saving products, the purchase of organic products, and the purchase of biodegradable or pollution-free products, etc. (Wu, 2014). In the long run, the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products is beneficial to the environment and society. However, its high cost actually brings difficulties to the conduct of such consumption behavior (Grinstein et al., 2009). As such, some researchers focused on exploring the promotion of eco-friendly consumption behavior (Li et al., 2019; Sheng et al., 2018). The consumption behavior of eco-products is a very complex process, which is influenced by many factors such as internal factors and external contextual factors. Based on the planned behavior theory, motivation ability opportunity theory and cognitive behavior theory, scholars put forward that the influencing factors of individual eco-friendly consumption behavior mainly included three aspects: first, there are the demographic characteristics of samples and the source of samples and so forth; Secondly, there are internal factors, such as perceived effectiveness, environmental awareness and environmental responsibility (Chen et al., 2011; Matthes et al., 2014; Joshi et al., 2016; Sheng et al., 2019); finally, there are external contextual factors, such as technology, information strategy and marketing strategy (Chen, 2010; Olsen et al., 2014; Sheng et al., 2019). As for the demographic characteristics, some scholars have found that the individuals who cared more about eco-friendly products were women, young and middle-aged people, people with higher education, higher income, higher professional class and higher economic and social status (Pickett et al., 1995; Tilikidou, 2001; Wang et al., 2011). This view has been supported by Pagiaslis et al., (2014) and Brahim (2019). Although demography has a certain impact on consumer behavior, most studies have 7 shown that the explanatory power of demographic characteristics is far less than that of psychological awareness (Cornwell, 1991; Singh et al, 2009; Xu, 2013). In recent years, the focus of academic research has shifted to the exploration of individual psychological factors. Perceived effectiveness is the psychological expectation an individual has upon the effect of taking eco-friendly consumption behavior. Eco-friendly products meet the functional needs of consumers. In addition, it can reduce the damage to ecological environment and the waste of natural resources. Studies have shown that perceived effectiveness is the most significant factor among the psychological factors (Roberts, 1996; Straughan et al., 1999). Based on multiple linear regression analysis, some scholars have confirmed that perceived effectiveness is a determinant of consumer behavior of eco-friendly products (Kim et al., 2012). When individuals believe that their consumption behaviors are conducive to improving the environmental conditions and they can really feel the actual effect, they will be more likely to take eco-friendly consumption behavior. Therefore, the perceived effectiveness of eco-friendly products has a positive impact on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Balderjahn, 1988). Some studies have shown that when the personal perceived effectiveness is relatively strong, they will have a positive attitude towards eco-friendly products (Mostafa, 2007). And the attitude has a great impact on the consumption beliefs of eco-friendly products (Hartman, 2007), which will promote the corresponding consumer behavior (Wim et al., 2007; Prakash et al., 2017). In other words, individual perceived effectiveness has a significant impact on consumption attitude and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Berger et al., 1992). The level of perceived effectiveness has an impact on the degree of individual's adoption of eco-friendly consumer behavior (Hines, 1987). And the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products has a positive impact on their consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Maloney et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2017). Therefore, this paper argues that the consumer attitude of eco-friendly products may play a mediating role in the relationship between perceived effectiveness and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. The driving force of individual consumption of eco-friendly products may be the novelty of eco-friendly products, that is, sometimes individuals are more willing to accept and use new products (Rogers, 1971). The reason may be that new products can satisfy their desire for innovation and change. Some scholars tried to understand this behavior from the perspective of external context, that is, obtaining information about the products through various communication channels (such as advertising, word-of-mouth, interpersonal communication, etc.) and then purchase and use these products (Im et al., 8 2007). When a new technology or new product appears in the market, its characteristics such as environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction will attract many consumers. If the new technology or new product is evaluated well after use, it will be accepted by more people. On the contrary, if there is not enough innovation, it will be difficult for individuals to accept them (Rogers, 2002; Xue, 2017). In addition, the influence of perceived effectiveness of eco-friendly products on the consumption behavior of individuals is sometimes not obvious (Prakash et al., 2017; Kumar et al., 2018). As such, it is argued that the effect of perceived effectiveness on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products will vary with the application of ICT innovation. Therefore, this paper attempts to introduce the application of ICT innovation as a moderator to study its moderating role in the relationship between perceived effectiveness and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. 2.2. Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products With the increasing popularity of consumer environmentalism in the world, more and more enterprises are willing to develop eco-friendly products (Chen, 2011) and more and more consumers are paying attention to eco-friendly products (Chen et al., 2012). However, in the actual consumption process, although the vast majority of consumers express great concern about environmental issues and support the consumption of eco-friendly products, the market share of eco-friendly products is not high (Tseng et al., 2013; Pang et al., 2017). According to a new survey conducted by integer group, since the beginning of this century, the willingness of American consumers to pay premium for eco-friendly products has increased significantly. 43% of consumers express their willingness and 11% are strongly willing to pay for eco-friendly products. The data of the "2018 Green Sustainable Consumption Promotion Week" jointly sponsored by WWF shows that from 2015 to 2017 consumers of China's first and second tier cities saw a significant surge in their recognition of eco-friendly product logos, which rose from 58% to 83% (Xinhua news agency, August 16, 2018). To improve the utilization of eco-friendly products, all countries are making great efforts. Since 2020, the city of Geneva will prohibit the sales of disposable plastic products in all social gatherings, sports competitions and other events, as well as in retail stores in public places; more than 600 supermarkets and convenience stores in Vietnam will stop selling plastic straws from May 2020; at present, the United States, South Korea and Taiwan have introduced a ban on the use of nylon bags. It seems that with the increase of consumer awareness of eco-friendly products, the consumption of 15 applications of ICT innovation from three perspectives: information resources, basic infrastructure of information and application of information technology. Specifically, information resources refer to the convenience for consumers to obtain information of eco-friendly products; basic infrastructure of information refers to the traceability verification of eco-friendly products; application of information technology refers to various application software technologies incorporated in the field of environment and related technologies applied in the process of promoting the consumption of eco-friendly products. By combining the studies of Peppard (2004), Ravichandran (2005), Pavlou (2006), Wan (2014) and Carmen (2015), we made some modifications and finally the scale has 11 items. For each item in the questionnaire, responses were collected on a 5-point Likert scale, where 1 show 'strongly disagree' and 5 indicates 'strongly agree'. A sample questionnaire is shown in Appendix-A. 3.2. Sampling and data collection Table1 shows the profile of respondents. The respondents of this questionnaire are consumers in Chinese major cities of Nanchang, Hefei, Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen etc. The questionnaires are all sent to consumers in the form of online snowballing. The questionnaires are collected from January to March 2020. Altogether, we have received 689 questionnaires back where there were 591 questionnaires which have not had serious problems. The effective questionnaires rate is 85.78%. Table1 shows the profile of respondents. Table 1 Demographic profile of respondents (N=591) Characteristics of respondents Classification Sample Amounts Percentage (%) Gender Male 296 50.1% Female 295 49.9% Age(years) <16 12 2.0% 16-25 370 62.6% 26-35 77 13.0% 36-45 87 14.7% 46-55 28 4.7% >56 17 2.9% Education Senior high school or below 64 10.8% Junior college 58 9.8% Bachelor's degree 343 58.0% Master's degree or PhD 126 21.3% Occupation Employee in state units and 88 14.9% 16 institutions Enterprise employee 89 15.1% Self-employed person 10 1.7% Freelance 23 3.9% Student 349 59.1% other 32 5.4% 4. Test of theoretical model 4.1. Reliability analysis First of all, we confirm the reliability of each variable by using the Cronbach's α. From the results, we can find that the Cronbach's α value of each variable was all bigger than 0.8, which satisfied the criterion suggested by Hair et al. (2010). This indicates all variables have good reliability. Then, we used Mplus 8.3 to conduct confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The standardized item factor loadings are all bigger than 0.5 and are significant at the P<0.001 level. The results are reported in table 2. The fitness indexes of a four-factor model and other competitive model are reported in table 3. The results show that the four-factor model has a good fit while the fitness indexes of other competitive models are not as good as that of the four-factor model. It indicates that these variables have good discriminant validity. In general, this confirms that the questionnaires used in this study have good discriminant validity. This study adopted the controlling for effects of an unmeasured latent method to test the common method bias. The results show that after inputting the common method factor into the four-factor model, the fitness indexes of the model have not been improved a lot. Specifically, CFI increases 0.02, TLI increases 0.007, which indicates that the common method bias is not serious in this study. Table 2 Reliability analysis. Construct Code Loading Cronbach alpha The perceived effectiveness (Fee) Fee1 .546 .853 Fee2 .796 Fee3 .814 Fee4 .804 Fee5 .719 Fee6 .654 The consumption attitude of eco-friendly products (Att) Att1 .626 .888 Att2 .881 Att3 .884 Att4 .767 17 Att5 .794 The consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Beh) Beh1 .700 .842 Beh2 .803 Beh3 .779 Beh4 .750 The application of ICT innovation (ICT) ICT1 .765 .948 ICT2 .763 ICT3 .779 ICT4 .836 ICT5 .823 ICT6 .798 ICT7 .827 ICT8 .833 ICT9 .777 ICT10 .733 ICT11 .780 Note: the factor loadings are all standardized. Table 3 Results of the confirmatory factor analysis. Measurement model χ2 df χ2/df Δχ2 Δdf CFI TLI RMSER SRMR Single factor model: Fee+Att+Beh+ICT 3089.97 299 10.33 .75 .729 .126 .077 Two-factor model: Fee+Att, Beh+ICT 2109.44 298 7.08 980.53 1 .838 .823 .101 .064 Three-factor mode:l Fee+Att, Beh, ICT 1655.79 296 5.59 453.61 2 .878 .866 .088 .058 Four-factor model: Fee, Att, Beh, ICT 1388.21 293 4.74 267.58 3 .902 .891 .08 .057 Four factor+method factor 1143.89 273 4.19 244.33 20 .922 .907 .073 .053 4.2. Description, statistics and correlation coefficient of variables To control the influence of demographic characteristic variables on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products, this paper selects gender, age, education and occupation as control variables (Tilikidou, 2001; Wang et al., 2011; Pagiaslis et al., 2014; Brahim, 2019). The mean value, standard deviation and correlation coefficient of each variable are shown in Table 4. It can be seen from table 4 that gender is significantly correlated to the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products; age is significantly correlated to perceived effectiveness and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products; education background is significantly correlated to consumption behavior of eco-friendly products; occupation is significantly correlated to perceived effectiveness. There is a significant positive 18 correlation between perceived effectiveness and consumption attitude (r = 0.737, P < 0.01) and a significant positive correlation between perceived effectiveness and consumption behavior (r = 0.452, P < 0.01). In addition, the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products is positively correlated with the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (r = 0.55, P < 0.01). Table 4 The correlation coefficient matrix Mean Standard deviation Gender Age Education Occupation Fee Att Beh ICT Gender 1.5 0.5 1 Age 29.76 12.09 0.034 1 Education 2.90 0.858 0.051 -0.048 1 Occupation 3.93 1.663 0.013 -0.613** -0.124* 1 Fee 4.352 0.493 -0.05 -0.091* -0.035 0.099* 1 Att 4.39 0.476 -0.036 0.009 -0.014 -0.006 0.737** 1 Beh 3.97 0.645 -0.099* 0.054 -0.102* -0.056 0.452** 0.55** 1 ICT 4.25 0.506 -0.054 -0.1* -0.052 0.068 0.675** 0.71** 0.615** 1 Note: * <0.05, ** <0.01, ***<0.001(two tails). 4.3. Test of H1 and H2 To test H1-H4, we made a multivariant regression analysis, of which the perceived effectiveness is the independent variable, the applications of ICT innovation is the moderator, the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products are respectively the dependent variables. To avoid some alternative explanations to our model, this paper includes four control variables: gender, age, education background and occupation. As model 6 in table 5 shows, the perceived effectiveness and consumption attitude of eco-friendly products are positively correlated, which support hypothesis 1. The results of model 3 in table 5 shows that the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products and consumption behavior of eco-friendly product is significantly positively correlated and hypothesis 2 is supported. 19 Table 5 Results of multivariant hierarchical regression. Variable Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products(Beh) Consumption attitude of eco-friendly products(Att) Step one: control variables Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Gender -0.120* -0.092 -0.095* -0.092* -0.034 0 Age 0.010 0.024 0.008 0.011 0.003 0.020 Education background -0.078* -0.069* -0.073** -0.071** -0.007 0.004 Occupation -0.022 -0.034 -0.022 -0.025 -0.001 -0.015 Step two: perceived effectiveness(Fee) 0.598*** 0.147* 0.722*** Step three: consumption attitude of eco-friendly products(Att) 0.738*** 0.626*** R2 0.024 0.230 0.321 0.326 0.002 0.551 F 3.581** 34.973*** 55.192*** 47.097*** 0.229 143.770*** Note: (1) the regression coefficients are not standardized; (2) *<0.05, **<0.01, ***<0.001(two tails). 4.4. Test of the mediating effect To test the mediating role of consumption attitude of eco-friendly product, based on Kenny et al. (1998)’s method, this paper test whether the mediating effect satisfies the following 4 conditions: (1) the independent variable and the dependent variable is significantly correlated; (2) the independent variable and the mediating variable is significantly correlated; (3) the mediating variable and the dependent variable is significantly correlated; (4) the direct effect, that is, if the independent variable has no significant effect on dependent variable, there is complete mediating effect. Otherwise, it indicates that there is partial mediating effect. As model 2 in table 5 shows, the perceived effectiveness (the independent variable) and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly product (the dependent variable) is significant correlated (B=0.598，p<0.001). So H3a is supported. The second step is to test whether the independent variable and the mediating variable has significant relationship. Since H1 is supported, it means the perceived effectiveness (the independent variable) and the consumption attitude of eco-friendly product (the mediating variable) is significantly positively correlated (B=0.781，p<0.001). To test step 3 and 4, we use a hierarchical regression method. Specifically, the variables we input into the model are as follows: (1) control variables; (2) perceived effectiveness; (3) consumption attitude of eco-friendly products. The results of model 4 in table 4 shows 20 that the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products (the mediating variable) and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (the dependent variable) is significantly correlated (B=0.147，p<0.05). The results indicate that the consumption attitude of eco-friendly product partly mediates the relationship between perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Therefore, H3b is supported. To further test the significance of the mediating effect, this paper applies the SPSS (Process 3.4)(model 4,n=5000)developed by Hayes (2018) and we find that the mediating effect of the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products is 0.4517, the confidence interval is (0.3522，0.5529). It does not include 0. The result shows that the mediating effect is significant (see table 6). Table 6 The results of the mediating effect analysis. Path Effects Estimates SE Boot LLCI Boot ULCI Fee-Att-Beh Indirect effects .4517 .0516 .3504 .5538 Direct effects .1466 .0668 .0155 .2777 Total effects .5982 .0481 .5044 .6921 4.5. Test of the moderating effect Again, this paper adopts the hierarchical regression method to test H4, that is, the applications of ICT innovation plays a moderating role on the positive relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly product. To reduce the correlation between the interaction term and the main effect, we centered the independent variable and the moderator. In the hierarchical regression, we use the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products as the dependent variable and input the following variables in the model: (1) control variables; (2) the two main effects (perceived effectiveness and applications of ICT innovation); (3) the product term of perceived effectiveness and the applications of ICT innovation. As the model 3 in table 7 shows, the product term of the perceived effectiveness and the application of ICT innovation reach the significant level (B=0.220，p<0.05), which indicates the moderating effect of the applications of ICT innovation is tested. Therefore, H4 is supported. 21 Table 7 The results of the moderating effect analysis. Model 5 Coefficient SE P-Values LLCI ULCI Constant 4.6339 1.6002 0.0039 1.4910 7.7768 Fee -0.9933 0.3646 0.0066 -1.7094 -0.2773 Att 0.3206 0.0701 0 0.1829 0.4584 ICT -0.4097 0.3913 0.2955 -1.1782 0.3588 Fee*ICT 0.2263 0.86 0.0087 0.0573 0.3952 4.6. Test of the overall effect of the conceptual model Based on the 74 theoretical models of Bootstrap test procedure developed by Hayes (2018), the model of this paper corresponds with model 5. This paper applies the SPSS macro (PROCESS 3.4) (Model 5, n =5000) developed by Hayes (2018) to conduct the conditional process analysis. The results please see table 8 and table 9. Table 8 shows the interaction item of perceived effectiveness and applications of ICT is significant (B=0.2263，p=0.0087). The 95% confidence interval of Bootstrap test is (0.0573, 03952), which did not include 0. It indicates that the applications of ICT innovation play a moderating role on the positive relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Therefore, H4 is further supported. Table 9 shows that for moderate and high level of applications of ICT, the confidence interval of Bootstrap test is respectively (-0.1591, 0.0951)and(-0.0778, 0.2425)， which both include 0. It indicates the indirect effect of the consumption attitude of eco-friendly product is not significant, that is, the mediating effect of the consumption attitude of the eco-friendly product does not exist. For the low level of applications of ICT innovation, the confidence interval of Bootstrap test is (-0.2922, -0.0007), which did not include 0. It indicates the indirect effect of the consumption attitude of the eco-friendly product is significant. And this shows the mediating effect of the consumption attitude of eco-friendly product do exist. To sum up, when the application of ICT innovation is low, the mediating effect of the consumption attitude of eco-friendly product on the relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly product do exist. Table 8 The influence of perceived effectiveness on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products under different application levels of ICT innovation. 22 ICT Beh Effect SE LLCI ULCI Low(3.7426) -0.1464 0.0742 -0.2922 -0.0007 Moderate(4.2481) -0.0320 0.0647 -0.1591 0.0951 High(4.7536) 0.0840 0.0816 -0.0778 0.2425 5. Quantitative analysis of regulatory effect by ICT Innovation 5.1. Profile of HMM Based on the above analysis, we find that the application of ICT innovation plays a moderating role on the positive relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Meanwhile, the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products plays a mediating role between the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. If we want to use this model to help the government to formulate the environmental policies, to guide the manufacturing enterprises to produce eco-friendly products, and to direct the information technology enterprises to conduct R&D in ICT field, a further empirical and quantitative analysis of the model are needed. Such uses of further methods and analysis are common in hypothetical-inductive methods (Siponen et al., 2020). Hence, this paper attempts to address the following issues based on a mathematical model and experimental data: (1) What are the possibilities of a consumer with certain perceived effectiveness to consume the eco-friendly products under certain level of application of ICT innovation? (2) What are the possibilities of a consumer with certain perceived effectiveness to continuously consume the eco-friendly products under different scenarios of application of ICT innovation? For example, with a high-level ICT application context, what is the probability that a consumer with mid-level perceived effectiveness will continue to consume eco-friendly products provided by the enterprise? (3) How much dependence does the application of ICT innovation provided by the information technology enterprises brings to the consumers? (4) How does enterprises assess whether a consumer change his or her former consumption habit in the consumption of eco-friendly products? And how to quantify consumers' consumption inertia? To answer question (1), we need to establish a state probability model of perceived effectiveness, application of ICT innovation and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. We plan to use 23 probability to answer the "possibility" question. Because the state probability arises under certain condition, this paper adopts the directed graph based Bayesian network model, which well satisfies the calculation requirement of conditional probability. To answer question (2), we need to add a time series to the Bayesian network model. In other words, we need to extend the static Bayesian network model to the dynamic Bayesian network based on time series. On the basis of question (2), the dependence of question (3) and the inertia of question (4) are all about the probability of time series. What they need to calculate is the state transition probability. Therefore, based on the dynamic Bayesian network with time series, we introduce a state transition probability model. The Markov model is widely used to study the random state transition problem in time series. The state transition probability matrix can well answer the dependence and inertia question. In general, it may be difficult for companies to observe consumers' consumption choice of eco-friendly products. Therefore, in the design of the probability model, we add a function to calculate the probability of the unknown state. That is, we adopt a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based on Bayesian network to conduct empirical study. HMM is a statistical modelling method for instable time series (Zhang et al., 2013; Vamsikrishna et al., 2016). Some researchers used Markov process and HMM particularly to model human beings' behaviors (Moe et al., 2008; Malik et al., 2009; ElSalamouny et al., 2009). Because HMM has the following advantages such as providing a probability framework for inference and forecasting, incorporating the uncertainty, needing few training samples, having strong explanation, and reflecting the randomness of the subjects, with no aftereffect and so forth, it is widely used in behavior modelling. As a mathematical model, by assuming an unknown state sequence, a HMM can produce a known observation sequence to infer an observation state sequence mode (Jacob et al., 2015). The foundation of HMM in a stochastic Markov process consists of a number of states and the transitions between them (Morteza et al., 2016). This paper attempts to construct a probability calculation model. By collecting the data of the consumers, it constructs a HMM based on the known observation sequence (perceived effectiveness, application of ICT innovation) to infer the unknown state sequence (the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products). This paper calculates the probability of consumers' consumption behavior of eco-friendly product in different combinations of observation states and forecasts different consumers' consumption choice of eco-friendly products in different applications of ICT innovation. Moreover, this paper tests the moderating effect of application of ICT innovation on the relationship of 24 the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. As such, the HMM not only tests the above results which makes the conclusions more reliable, but forecasts the practice by considering the real context based on the calculation of the probabilities of the dynamic relationship between the behaviors and states. Owing to the focus of this paper being the influence of application of ICT innovation, the mediating effect of the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products will not be further discussed. 5.2. Definition of HMM A hidden Markov model (Rabiner, 1989; Fox et al., 2006) is an automatic program with a hidden state consisting of unobservable variables and incorporating a hidden state Markov process. A HMM has the following parameters: N: quantity of HMM states. HMM has a hidden state chain, of which each state is correlated with an observation probability density function. In the model built in this paper, N denotes the quantity of the states of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly product. Therefore, we have: At time t the state of Markov chain is qt, then: M: quantity of HMM observation states. In the model built in this paper, M denotes the quantity of the combination of the state of perceived effectiveness and the state of application of ICT innovation. Therefore, we have: The observation value at time t is Ot, then: A: state transition probability matrix. A denotes the transition probability of the model in different states, then: },,,{ N21 SSSBEH != BEHqtÎ },,,{ M21 VVVGRP != GRPOtÎ 31 Table 9 The state indicators and descriptions of perceived effectiveness, application of ICT innovation and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. State type State indicator Indicator description Perceived effectiveness(Fee) Fee0 Knowing nothing about the influence of products on the environment Fee1 Whether the appearance design of the product will cause pollution to the environment Fee2 Whether the product packaging has low-carbon, environmental protection and other marks Fee3 Understand whether the main components of the product will cause pollution to the environment Fee4 Whether the production and circulation of products will cause environmental pollution Fee5 Whether the use and recovery of products will pollute the environment Application of ICT innovation (ICT) ICT0 Low level of application of ICT innovation ICT1 Moderate level of application of ICT innovation ICT2 High level of application of ICT innovation Consumption behavior of eco-friendly products (Beh) Beh0 Do not basically identify whether the product is harmful to the environment during consumption Beh1 When consuming, it is identified whether the product is eco-friendly, but whether the product meets the consumers' own needs and whether the product price is appropriate is more considered Beh2 Be willing to pay higher price to the eco-friendly consumption Beh3 When consuming, take eco-friendly consumption as possible Beh4 The products harmful to the ecological environment are refused to be consumed We use the algorithm of section 5.3 to calculate the probabilities of consumption behavior of eco-friendly products caused by the different combinations of perceived effectiveness, application of ICT innovation. And we get the state mapping matrix. Table 10 shows the results of probability calculation. Each data of table 10 denotes a probability of a consumption behavior of eco-friendly products caused by the perceived effectiveness moderated by a certain application of ICT innovation. In the table, we find that with the same level of perceived effectiveness, it is significant that relatively low consumption behavior of eco-friendly products is moderated by relatively low application of ICT innovation. It is also 32 significant that relatively high consumption behavior of eco-friendly products is moderated by relatively high application of ICT innovation. The results are consistent with the results of SEM. Table10 The calculation results of probability of consumption state of eco-friendly products caused by application of ICT innovation. Beh0 Beh1 Beh2 Beh3 Beh4 Fee0(ICT0) .081 .069 .017 .015 .019 Fee1(ICT0) .080 .078 .031 .027 .025 Fee2(ICT0) .080 .087 .044 .041 .031 Fee3(ICT0) .076 .089 .058 .056 .037 Fee4(ICT0) .071 .091 .072 .070 .042 Fee5(ICT0) .062 .087 .085 .085 .048 Fee0(ICT1) .069 .054 .022 .019 .030 Fee1(ICT1) .065 .056 .035 .034 .039 Fee2(ICT1) .060 .058 .049 .048 .048 Fee3(ICT1) .056 .060 .062 .063 .057 Fee4(ICT1) .047 .058 .076 .077 .069 Fee5(ICT1) .038 .051 .089 .092 .078 Fee0(ICT2) .058 .039 .026 .025 .041 Fee1(ICT2) .049 .034 .039 .040 .056 Fee2(ICT2) .040 .023 .053 .055 .072 Fee3(ICT2) .032 .025 .067 .070 .087 Fee4(ICT2) .023 .020 .081 .085 .103 Fee5(ICT2) .014 .015 .094 .099 .118 Figure 4 is a three-dimensional probability histogram, in which green represents high-level ICT applications, yellow represents medium-level ICT applications, and red represents low-level ICT applications. Detailed and dynamic 3D drawings can be accessed (http://threegraphs.com/charts/preview/9510/embed/). 33 Fig. 4. Three dimensional statistical chart of probability calculation results caused by ICT status for consumption status of eco-friendly products To further explore the high level of consumption behavior of eco-friendly products, we calculate the probability caused by perceived effectiveness moderated by the application of ICT innovation and find the data having the following characteristics: with the increase of perceived effectiveness, the high level of application of ICT innovation can produce more significant change of probabilities of high level of consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. As figure 5 shows, the vertical axis is the probability value which produces the Beh4 behavior, the horizontal axis is the classification of perceived effectiveness. Fig. 5. The probability of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products moderated by application of ICT innovation with different perceived effectiveness We also calculate the transition matrix of consumption of eco-friendly products. Table 11 is the results of the calculation of the state transition matrix. When consumers choose consumption behaviors at each time, they tend to choose the consumption behavior similar to that of the previous time. Each data of Table 11 shows the probability from qt to qt+1 of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. 34 Table 11 The state transition probability matrix of consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. qt qt+1 Beh0 Beh1 Beh2 Beh3 Beh4 Beh0 .565 .163 .070 .024 .178 Beh1 .086 .389 .166 .154 .206 Beh2 .103 .151 .398 .209 .139 Beh3 .099 .159 .207 .388 .146 Beh4 .099 .154 .127 .113 .508 The results of table 10 and table 11 provide reference for the eco-friendly manufacturers to make market analysis and short or long-term strategic planning. Moreover, it can provide guidance for the R&D enterprises of ICT innovation application to develop the products and services of dependence. Furthermore, this paper also assesses the accurateness of the results of HMM. By using the correct quantity of HMM identifying the biggest probability path to divide the quantity of the sample, we can get the accurate rate of identification. Please see figure 6. Fig.6. Statistical chart of verification results of HMM on consumer behavior of eco-friendly products Figure 6 shows that there are certain errors by using the HMM algorithm to estimate the application of ICT innovation which has relatively small influence on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. But in large data sample, it can remain relatively high level. The forecasting data and method 115 180 283 209 168 52 236 361 437 410 273 142 118 168 332 385 227 122 29 45 71 52 42 13 59 90 109 102 68 35 29 42 83 96 57 31 68,97% 71,11% 92,96% 76,92% 73,81% 69,23% 81,36% 93,33% 94,50% 94,12% 86,76% 88,57% 72,41% 88,10% 89,16% 88,54% 71,93% 87,10% 0,00% 10,00% 20,00% 30,00% 40,00% 50,00% 60,00% 70,00% 80,00% 90,00% 100,00% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Fee0(ICT0) Fee1(ICT0) Fee2(ICT0) Fee3(ICT0) Fee4(ICT0) Fee5(ICT0) Fee0(ICT1) Fee1(ICT1) Fee2(ICT1) Fee3(ICT1) Fee4(ICT1) Fee5(ICT1) Fee0(ICT2) Fee1(ICT2) Fee2(ICT2) Fee3(ICT2) Fee4(ICT2) Fee5(ICT2) Training samples Testing samples Accurate rate of identification with optimum probability 35 can provide reference for the government to formulate the environmental policies. 6. Discussion of findings 6.1. Implication for theory This paper constructs a conceptual model, which contains the relationship of the perceived effectiveness, the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products, the applications of ICT innovation, and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Based on the sample data collected by questionnaires, this paper empirically tests this model. The research results contribute to the theoretical studies and managerial practice of consumption of eco-friendly products. First of all, this paper enriches the relevant research on the consumption behavior theory of eco-friendly products. This paper confirms the relationship between the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. That is, the perceived effectiveness has positive effect on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. More specific than previous studies, this study finds that the satisfaction and the sense of pleasure from the consumption of eco-friendly products can promote an individual’s consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. As such, it further reveals the facilitation function of the non-economic rewards and the intrinsic motivation in the consumption of eco-friendly products. Besides, it provides theoretical basis for their management. Secondly, by revealing the relationship between efficacy support, emotional support and consumers' basic psychological needs, this paper shows that in China, consumers usually buy eco-friendly products with positive attitude rather than "efficacy" perception. This provides a direction for future research. Finally, this paper discusses the situational factors which provide explanations for the gap between consumers’ perceived effectiveness of eco-friendly products and their eco-friendly consumption behavior. Consumers' consumption intention of eco-friendly products is influenced by both individual internal factors and situational factors. So consistent with the attitude-situation behavioral theory, consumers’ behavior is moderated by external situational factors (product function, consumption situation, etc.) (Stern, 2000), such as application of ICT innovation. This means that individual consumption behavior of eco-friendly products is inseparable from the social environment and product innovation. This provides theoretical guidance for enterprises to produce and sell innovative products. For example, the government should encourage enterprises to develop environmental technology, ensure the quality of 36 eco-friendly products and avoid potential safety hazards; in the selling process, it should provide necessary and sufficient product information, such as eco-friendly labels, product certification and user instructions. In so doing, the consumers can get access to the eco-friendly products with diverse varieties, reasonable prices and significantly improved functional attributes. 6.2. Implication for practice This paper theoretically and empirically confirms the moderating role the applications of ICT innovation plays on the positive relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. Additionally, it quantitatively analyzes the moderating effect of the applications of ICT innovation. The results are conducive to eco-friendly product manufacturers to make ICT strategic decisions in the process of R&D and design, and are also helpful for ICT enterprises to make basic judgement on the potential of the market, the customer dependence and the risk prediction. The results also provide reference for the government to carry out environmental and ecological protection policies. This paper constructs a state probability model of perceived effectiveness, the applications of ICT innovation and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products to answer such question that which level of applications of ICT innovation can promote the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products for consumers with which level of perceived effectiveness. Based on the Bayesian network model, by adding the state study based on time series, the static Bayesian network model is extended to the dynamic Bayesian network model. This model can calculate how likely the eco-friendly products provided by an enterprise in different level of application of ICT innovation can be consumed continuously by the consumers with different levels of perceived effectiveness. Our findings leads us to emphasize the consumer dependence the applications of ICT innovation provided by the information technology enterprises can bring. Furthermore, this paper introduces a state transition probability model of the dynamic Bayesian network based on time series and calculates the state transition probability to evaluate whether consumers change their original consumption habits, and to quantify the consumers' consumption inertia. The research conclusions are helpful for eco-friendly product manufacturers to make ICT strategic decisions in the process of R&D and design. We also provides a study model for the government to carry out environmental and ecological protection policies. 37 7. Conclusion Recently, the ICT innovation has been deeply embedded into the process of R&D, production and sales of the eco-friendly products. Considering these, based on such context, this paper constructs a conceptual model, which explores the influencing mechanism of the perceived effectiveness on the consumption of eco-friendly products. It discusses how the consumption attitude of eco-friendly products mediates the relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products as well as how the applications of ICT innovation moderate such influence. Based on the data collected online, this paper empirically tests the theoretical model and the hypothesis. The results show that: (1) The perceived effectiveness is positively correlated with the consumption attitude and consumption behavior of eco-friendly products; (2)The consumption attitude of eco-friendly products plays a mediating role between the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products; (3)The applications of ICT innovation plays a moderating role on the positive relationship of the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. The higher the level of applications of ICT innovation, the weaker the positive correlation between the perceived effectiveness and the consumption behavior of eco-friendly product. The results of this paper contribute to promote the consumption of eco-friendly products and provides references for the related theoretical studies and practical applications. This paper has the following contributions: (1) This paper calculates the state transition matrix of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products, which provides the reference of consumer dependence for the eco-friendly product manufacturers and ICT enterprises. (2) This paper calculates the state mapping matrix of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products to the perceived effectiveness and the state mapping matrix of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products to the applications of ICT innovation. As such, it provides mathematical and empirical evidence for the eco-friendly product manufacturers to make sound market judgment. (3) This paper forecasts consumers' consumption choice of eco-friendly products in different contexts. The forecasting method and the data are useful for both enterprises and the government. This study has some limitations, which should be pointed out and improved in the future research. First, in terms of the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products, there are various influencing factors, 38 such as environmental knowledge, attraction of environment, concerns about environment and attachment to local places etc. Despite of these various factors, in this paper we only focus on some of these factors and introduce a contextual factor which is the reflection of the current information technology times. Then this paper confirms the moderating effect of the contextual factor-the applications of ICT innovation in the conceptual model. In addition, by building a HMM, this paper studies the influence of the applications of ICT innovation on the consumption behavior of eco-friendly products. However, the insufficient consumption records data may have some impact on the results of this paper. Finally, this paper has not covered all the possible applications of ICT innovation and has not proposed a more advanced transductive HMM which takes the technology development into account. All these increase the limitations of the forecasting. Thereafter, in the future study more influencing factors should be incorporated to enhance the explanation of the model. 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