Making Communication Strategy Choices in a Fast Evolving Crisis Situation—Results from a Table-Top Discussion on an Anthrax Scenario

This is an electronic reprint of the original article. This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Author(s): Title: Year: Version: Please cite the original version: All material supplied via JYX is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights, and duplication or sale of all or part of any of the repository collections is not permitted, except that material may be duplicated by you for your research use or educational purposes in electronic or print form. You must obtain permission for any other use. Electronic or print copies may not be offered, whether for sale or otherwise to anyone who is not an authorised user. Making Communication Strategy Choices in a Fast Evolving Crisis Situation—Results from a Table-Top Discussion on an Anthrax Scenario Ruggiero, Aino Ruggiero, A. (2016). Making Communication Strategy Choices in a Fast Evolving Crisis Situation—Results from a Table-Top Discussion on an Anthrax Scenario. Social Sciences, 5(2), Article 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci5020019 2016 $ € £¥ social sciences Article Making Communication Strategy Choices in a Fast Evolving Crisis Situation—Results from a Table-Top Discussion on an Anthrax Scenario Aino Ruggiero Department of Communication, University of Jyväskylä, P.O. Box 35, Jyväskylä FI-40014, Finland; aino.ruggier[email protected]; Tel.: +358-40-805-4830 Academic Editor: Zahera Harb Received: 30 December 2015; Accepted: 6 May 2016; Published: 13 May 2016 Abstract: This paper aims at clarifying a timely topic of how communication strategy choices are made in evolving, complex crises, such as those caused by terrorism involving chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) agents. This is done by examining data gathered from a table-top discussion among crisis communication experts, focusing on a scenario of an anthrax attack and analysed qualitatively. The communication experts followed the evolving crisis situation by gathering inputs from various actors in the crisis management network, thereby creating situational understanding, and interpreted these inputs for decision-making on communication strategies. The underlying process of coping with complexity in evolving CBRN terrorism crises can be described as a continuous, dynamic process that can best be explained with a combination of traditional and more modern crisis communication approaches. Strategy-making in crisis situations by communication experts is still largely a black box. In this study, a novel approach of decomposing strategy-making by observing a table-top discussion is chosen to clarify the process. By identifying the core elements involved, a more detailed picture of communication strategy-making is created, thus promoting preparedness and professional resilience in the field. Keywords: communication strategies; crisis communication; terrorism 1. Introduction Today’s crises are described as complex and challenging, and are thus different from those of the previous century [ 1 ]. These new kinds of crises do not have clear boundaries of space and time: they emerge suddenly and spread in unforeseen ways and directions beyond local, functional, and geographical domains [ 2 ]. Global terror networks constitute one source of these new kinds of risks [ 3 ], as the November 2015 Paris and March 2016 Brussels terrorist attacks also show. The intensified awareness of terrorist risks in the period following the 9/11 attacks has also provoked increased concern over new forms and means of terrorism [ 4 ], including the use of biological agents or other CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear) materials for a terrorist purpose. The aim of this study is to investigate communication strategy-making in evolving, complex crises, such as those caused by terrorism involving CBRN agents. In particular, the focus is on how communication experts cope with complexity and keep track of such situations and make strategy choices. This goal is approached by examining empirical data collected in a table-top discussion on a scenario of an anthrax attack conducted among crisis communication experts and analysed qualitatively. From a communication practice perspective, the findings create understanding on communication strategy-making during an evolving crisis and so help promote communication preparedness for coping with such emergencies. From a theory point of view, studying communication strategy-making in an ongoing crisis situation adds insight into an area which has been little studied, namely the process underlying decision-making on communication strategies during crises [5]. Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19; doi:10.3390/socsci5020019 www.mdpi.com/journal/socsci Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 2 of 15 1.1. Communication and CBRN Terrorism Communication supports crisis management by public organisations in various ways, including creating understanding of risks and the crisis events; promoting preparedness activities and self-efficacy during a crisis; and creating cooperation in the response network, which comprises citizens, response organisations, and the media [ 6 ]. Hence, from a functional perspective, the role of communication is to achieve certain goals or outcomes [ 7 ]. Different areas of activities targeted at achieving such goals include monitoring of stakeholder needs, communication with stakeholders, and cooperation in the response network on, for example, coordination and planning [ 6 ]. From an integrated process perspective [ 8 ], communication in risk and crisis situations concerns the different phases of crises, from preparedness to recovery. Moreover, crisis communication is an ongoing process of creating shared understanding and meanings among and between stakeholders [ 7 ]. Given the fact that crisis response in today’s society is characterised by a network of multiple response actors [ 2 ], a network approach to crisis communication is essential (e.g., [9]). According to some authors, complex crises, such as those involving terrorism, cannot be explained by the traditional crisis communication theories [ 10 ]. What makes terrorism special is intentionality instead of an accidental origin, the uncontrollability of the risks involved, the potential to create widespread harm and damage, including individual risks becoming systemic risks, and the potential to undermine trust and cultivate mistrust in society, leading to a self-multiplication of risks and simplified images of the enemy [ 3 ]. In the case of CBRN terrorism, the above is further complicated by CBRN aspects of such crises [ 11 ]. A particular feature of CBRN terrorism is the sheer diversity of crisis types to prepare for, scientific uncertainties involving quickly-evolving information, no clear boundaries of time and geographical space, involuntary exposure, and lack of knowledge among public groups [ 11 , 12 ]. As a consequence, strong reactions may be created among citizen groups due to the multiple factors pertaining to the risk perceptions that are triggered [ 13 ]. These include emotional reactions, such as fear or anxiety, and behavioural responses that may place people in greater danger than the original crisis event itself [14]. This is a challenge for communication. Mapping risk perceptions [ 15 ] and monitoring them prior to and throughout terrorism events, including traditional news media analysis and opinion polling [ 16 ], but above all social media monitoring [ 17 ], are thus of primary importance. This is in line with the social amplification of risk model [ 18 ], according to which communication does not take place in isolation from the societal context, but should be based on an analysis of multiple psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes [ 12 , 16 ], including multiple public groups with diverse needs [ 6 ]. Preparing for CBRN terrorism crises can be included in an all-hazard approach [ 19 ], to avoid increasing anxiety and strengthen resilience [ 15 ]. In the case of an ongoing event, the role of communication is, for example, to share up-to-date information about that event, instructing publics on precautionary measures and reassuring them [ 16 ], including not only directly involved groups but also the larger, indirectly affected, population. In the aftermath of the crisis, communication can help recovery efforts by, for example, empowering people, helping restore trust [ 20 ] in a shaken value system by establishing a vision for the future, and facilitating the healing process [21] and learning. A full review of communication in the case of terrorist incidents is provided elsewhere [ 11 ]. In the present paper, the focus is on communication strategy-making by public authorities for communication with different stakeholders, citizen groups in particular, in the context of CBRN terrorism. 1.2. Communication Strategy Choices Due to the urgency of crisis events, and of CBRN terrorism in particular, these situations call for quick and timely actions. Communication strategies can be understood as decision-making rules or recipes for reaching communication goals [ 22 ] and solving problems [ 23 ], or, in the case of crises, those of crisis management. In this study, the focus is on the process of making communication strategy choices, not the strategies as such. Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 3 of 15 The choice of a communication strategy requires a careful analysis of the situation it aims to resolve [ 22 ]. To act quickly, the crisis communication team must make a situation analysis and identify which facts in what otherwise may be an overflow of information are critical for public groups [ 20 ]. This calls for a variety of monitoring activities, including news media analysis, public inquiries, poll data, and analysis of social media (see [ 17 ]) to determine the public’s information needs and, for example, where people are located [ 24 ]. The purpose of the analysis is to create situational awareness, which is a prerequisite for decision-making: once there is understanding of the crisis situation at hand, the crisis team can better estimate its effects and decide on the actions needed [5]. Decision-making that is based on an analysis of situational information in a rapidly changing environment is in line with more recent approaches to crisis management and communication, which emphasise, for example, complexity (e.g., [ 25 ]) and the art of improvisation and networking [ 26 ]. These perspectives also apply to terrorism crises, which are characterised by dynamic and diffuse processes and a need for fast adaptation to changing circumstances, and thus challenge the traditional ways of planning and information processing [ 10 ]. While most scientists would agree that the new world of risks and crises requires new ways of understanding and handling them (e.g., [ 1 , 2 ]) where linearity of communication has been replaced by the process approach of continuous action and interpretation [ 26 ], how the process of making strategy choices in this new context unfolds, is still largely a black box. This paper consists of five parts. Following the introduction, the method is explained, including data collection, analysis, and background information on the participants. Section 3presents the findings of this study, Section 4consists of a discussion, and Section 5concludes the paper. 2. Method The aim of this paper is to clarify how communication experts cope with complexity in evolving and complex crisis situations, such as those involving CBRN terrorism. In particular, the aim is to find out how experts follow an evolving situation and how they arrive at decisions about the communication strategies to employ in complex crises. The research questions are as follows: RQ1 How do communication experts follow a rapidly evolving and complex crisis situation? RQ2 How do communication experts decide on the communication strategies to implement in such crises? 2.1. Data Collection The data for this study were gathered from a table-top discussion that formed part of a workshop organised in Berlin in March 2014 in connection with the international project CATO (CBRN Crisis Management, Architecture, Technologies and Operational Procedures). The workshop comprised three parallel sessions where policy and decision-makers, health responders, and communication experts gathered to discuss CBRN crisis management issues from different perspectives. This article is based on data gathered from the workshop conducted among the communication experts. The purpose of the workshop was two-fold. It aimed on the one hand at gathering input for communication guidelines and other materials produced for the purposes of the project, while on the other hand aiming at gaining insights for scientific purposes on communication strategy-making in complex crises, such as CBRN terrorism crises. This paper focuses on the data gathered in pursuit of the latter aim. As CBRN terrorism events are rare, a table-top discussion was considered an appropriate venue for data gathering. Moreover, in comparison to interviews, for example, observation of experts’ actions was considered to produce more reliable results than simply asking them questions. Seven experts from five different European countries took part in the workshop. They were selected using a purposive strategy (e.g., [ 27 ]). The main selection criteria included (1) expertise in the field of crisis communication and (2) experience of CBRN issues and/or strategic communication. The table-top discussion was organised in consecutive sessions, simulating an escalating crisis. Each session lasted approximately one hour and was preceded by an introduction in which the Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 4 of 15 scenario timeline and most important events pertaining to the session in question were explained. The task of the communication experts was to discuss any communication issues that they considered relevant. The discussion was led by three moderators, two whose task was to enable the experts to express themselves freely, while the third took notes. Only a few intermediary questions and comments were posed if, for example, the discussion got stuck on one point or further clarification was deemed necessary. A fact sheet on anthrax was provided as support material. Moreover, a social media platform with a simulated stream of social and news media feeds was projected on the wall with the purpose of providing further input and to stimulate discussion. The discussion was both tape-recorded and videotaped with a panorama camera allowing a 360˝overview of all the participants simultaneously. Moreover, two researchers observed the discussion and took notes. Following the principles of ethical research, an informed consent form was signed by all the participants before the workshop began. The table-top discussion was based on a scenario of an evolving anthrax attack. The scenario was developed by a senior consultant on global health security and bioterrorism together with researchers and CBRN specialists working for the project. The scenario timeline was in three parts according to the phases of a crisis: (1) warning; (2) response; and (3) recovery. The first sequence focused on the warning phase and initial impacts, and included the first few hours of the crisis with a period of uncertainty. To begin with, the participants were shown two news items reporting a situation in Brussels where 14 employees of the European Parliament had been admitted to hospital. Two persons had died and a diagnosis of anthrax was being considered, including speculation on the possibility of a bio-terrorist attack. The second sequence, pertaining to the response phase, illustrated the situation on the next day, including the spread of the disease and an increase in the number of victims to over 1000 with 250 deaths. This phase was also marked by problems of access to health facilities and hospitals, fears among the population with many trying to leave the city, overwhelmed transport hubs and much confusion concerning the situation. The third sequence focused on the recovery phase, at day five, at which point many had died, while a large part of the population were still in the contaminated area. Moreover, questions were being asked by different publics concerning medical care, food, and water. Emergency responders were worried, and there were also significant international concerns, including offers of assistance from other countries. 2.2. Experts’ Background Information Seven communication experts took part in the table-top discussion. They came from five different European countries: Belgium (1), the Netherlands (2), Norway (2), Romania (1), and Sweden (1). The participants included two crisis communication experts, an EU project researcher with NATO experience, a senior project manager, a senior communication advisor, a press officer, and a communications director. Six of the seven participants were women. The experts were invited on the basis of their extensive experience, ranging between 6 and 18 years, in the field of crisis communication and management. 2.3. Data Analysis First, the recorded video tapes were transcribed. In the next step, the transcripts were read through and colour-coded according to the research questions. The colour-coded rtf files were then exported to ATLAS.ti (version 7) qualitative data analysis software (by Scientific Software Development GmbH, Berlin, Germany) for further analysis. The analysis was conducted drawing mainly on thematic analysis (e.g., [ 28 ]). This was done following both deductive and inductive approaches; the research questions and the structure of the workshop created a basis for analysis which was further complemented by open coding of the discussion. First, in ATLAS.ti, the colour-coded text segments which contributed to the two research questions were further coded. This was done per phase, as each workshop session, representing a different phase of the crisis, was covered in a separate document. After this, the coding was further Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 5 of 15 refined with the help of the colour-coded transcripts in Word, including a large table in which the running transcripts were accompanied by all the codes to see the overall evolution of the discussion across the three sessions. Next, with the help of the network view of ATLAS.ti, all the codes were brought together in an overview. Codes were grouped according to the research questions and further segmented and categorized, following principles of inductive thematic coding and analysis, in order to capture key concepts and themes and underlying patterns [ 29 ]. During this process, the codes were also further streamlined, as new codes were created and overlapping ones discarded. Finally, the resulting main themes and topics were brought together and listed in a separate word file. These are described in the next section along with illustrative quotations from the participants’ speech. 3. Results In this section, the main findings of this study, based on the analysis of the empirical data gathered via the table-top discussion on the scenario of an anthrax attack, are reported. The discussion had an atmosphere of urgency and engagement, and was lively. Owing to the open structure of the discussion, the experts were able to take many different directions in addressing the communication issues they deemed relevant. Their high level of expertise provided fertile ground for the discussion. Perhaps due to their different backgrounds, both professional and cultural, disagreements also arose at times. Nevertheless, rather than remaining in contradiction, these conflicting views ultimately complemented each other, producing rich data. Below, the results are summarized and some illustrative quotes are presented. Section 3.1 offers answers to the first research question by explaining how the communication experts followed the evolving situation. Section 3.2 focuses on the second research question and describes how the participants made communication strategy choices in the course of an evolving crisis situation. 3.1. Following the Situation Throughout all the phases simulated in the table-top discussion, the communication experts tried to keep track of the situation and the evolving crisis event by gathering input and creating situational understanding with those inputs. 3.1.1. Gathering Input Gathering input is an ongoing process. In order to monitor the evolving situation, the communication experts expressed a need for information, which is especially pressing at crisis onset. Moreover, the gathering of information and other input is described as a process where giving and receiving alternate: “[ . . . ] we gather information, two things, we are monitoring the outside world, and we are gathering all the information which come from us, from experts, and from other people, so we have an information manager, outside, inside, and we bring it together, from the information we go to a strategic level, we think what are we going to give back, strategic thing [ . . . ]” (P3) Often the information that they need is something the other actors in the response network possess. The party that they most need liaison with is health experts. The information needs from health responders included, for example, the incubation time of the disease, possible spread and risk zone, the number of victims, decontamination procedures, available treatments (e.g., antibiotics vs. vaccination), including their availability and sufficiency, and health advice that could be provided to public groups. “I think one of the big challenges will be to get the advice from the health group, like how you should deal with all the clothes and everything, to be as simple, as clear, so that everyone learns it, like three basic advices about [ . . . ]” (P2) Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 6 of 15 Moreover, information is needed on the health responders’ actions and decisions, such as evacuation from or quarantine in the city where the attack took place, and the overall health strategy. Information is also needed on related crisis management decisions and views regarding, for example, closing off the subway stations, and the level of threat and the risk of repetition. Moreover, the experts’ own networks also serve as a route for exchanging information: “There is such a thing as the health communicators’ network from [a name of an institution], I’m a member of it, so in a crisis situation like this, we would activate that, and, and give each other information, so if something like this is going on, we immediately get information [ . . . ]” (P5) However, one of the experts stressed that in addition to information from other experts, the communication experts also gather their own information: “[ . . . ] I think we have a double role, we are not only waiting for information from them, we are going to gather our own information, and that’s what, how is it landing in the world, first in Brussels, in politics [ . . . ]” (P3) 3.1.2. Creating Situational Understanding In their attempt to understand the evolving crisis, the participants went through and listed what they know about the situation. As by day two of the crisis case, the response phase, some of the uncertainties have been resolved and more facts can be listed, the creation of situational understanding is easier than in the warning phase. “[ . . . ] now we know a lot, we know where, we know how it worked, and if you, maybe, we also can say, we stopped it, I mean it has affected most people, and probably because of incubation time lots of people will get ill and even more will die, but we have the source right now [ . . . ]” (P5) One expert pointed out that there are two levels of analysis: “[ . . . ] one is the level we know now, and the other level is what can we expect.” (P3) Moreover, the participants sought to further understand the crisis case at hand looking at it from different angles. For example, they identified it as an international case which needs communication across borders. Regarding the risk type, it was concluded that since the bacterium itself is not contagious, infection is possible only through direct exposure to the source or the spores. There is a sense of urgency and uncertainty caused by the potential terrorism aspect of the crisis which can be seen in the social media stream of public discourse: “Symptoms and terrorists, these are the most common words, symptoms and terrorists, this is uncertainty case.” (P7) Stakeholder analysis is something that needs to be done both initially, and also as the crisis evolves, and includes the identification of relevant publics: “What we have to do at this stage is that we identify the publics, and one of the most important publics here is international community [ . . . ]” (P7) Moreover, public information needs need to be analysed, which also guides communication. Regarding public groups, analysis of public discussion and publics’ perceptions,reactions and concerns were also mentioned: “[ . . . ] what you see is that outside the organisation, you see a lot of public worries.” (P3) “This is risk perception, and we know from all our studies that anthrax and bio is the [shows with her hands: the biggest thing].” (P1) Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 7 of 15 Analysing social and news media is a way for communication experts to gather their own information and to find out what people are thinking in order, for example, to formulate strategic advice and to correct inaccuracies. From the information that the experts have gathered or received, they also identify issues that may need to be addressed in their communication. Some of these relate to practical matters, such as transportation or treatment, others to more intangible issues, such as emotional response in society: “And I also think we have to remember that two very different kind issues have to be communicated, one thing is the practical thing with the infrastructure and people getting out and in, and want hospital treatment and everything, but the other one is their feeling of safety, I mean this is a threat to the country, and how does that impact people, and what do they need to know to be sure that if it is gonna happen again or where can I be safe in my country, it’s two very different type of issues to communicate, I think.” (P2) Other issues mentioned include the risk of repetition, having enough vaccination, prioritisation of treatment, problems of triage, mourning in the risk zone, the image of the attacked city, inadvisable self-evacuation, long-term risk of contamination, people who do not get the right information in time, problems related to insurances, disruption of families, large numbers of victims and the blame game about who is responsible. Other ways of working with the information gathered cover verifying the source and the information that is provided in the news by, for example, comparing different sources. This relates mainly to the early phase of the crisis, when the experts do not yet have official information on the nature of the attack: “[ . . . ] the most important to start with is, is never a journalistic article about something, you know if you’re responsible for communication, you get this, you take this information that you got as a rumour, and you have to check it, and then you get a real original source of the information, you get an access to the primary sources of information [ . . . ]” (P7) By trying to understand the situation, meanings are further clarified, referred to by one expert as “sense-making”. Considering different scenarios and comparing the situation at hand with previous cases is commonplace in the later phases of response and recovery. Worst-case scenarios are analysed, for example, with regard to the possible terrorist origin of the crisis: “[ . . . ] if the police have three suspects for this [ . . . ] you have to think about the worst case scenario, you have to think ahead [ . . . ]” (P2) The list of cases referred to by the participants in their efforts to find points of comparison with earlier crises was wide, ranging from H1N1, the Marburg virus, tsunami, Q fever, 9/11, the Qoiânia accident and the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko to the London bomb attacks in 2005. On the need to reassure the public, 9/11 was mentioned: “[ . . . ] like you know the, after the 9/11, the president says we are going to stand together, and all that kinds of messages to the, to the population of Brussels, to keep calm and carry on, you know, who will give that kind of message [ . . . ]” (P2) 3.2. Making Communication Strategy Choices Communication experts make strategy choices by interpreting the diverse inputs that they have gained at various points during the evolving crisis event. They consider situational information from different sources, consider effects and scenarios, prioritise issues, weigh goals and principles, and balance their choices with the help of preparedness plans, roles, and responsibilities. 3.2.1. Interpreting Diverse Inputs Choices based on an analysis of the situation include those based on information gathered by analysing the outside world, such as information on the needs and perceptions of different affected publics: Soc. Sci. 2016,5, 19 8 of 15 “[ . . . ] do you think that people want to have a memorial, I am not saying that I don’t agree, but I say that you have to read the outside world, and then come with you communication, communication actions [ . . . ]” (P3) Moreover, the decisions made by communication experts are guided by the actions and decisions of other actors in the crisis situation and the information they have provided regarding, for example, the type of risk in question. When discussing the formulation of messages concerning long-term risks, one expert stated: “This message must be based on what we hear from our colleagues from health but also from policy and decision makers because maybe, health department, or maybe some kind of ministry says okay, everybody who is a victim will get a thousand euros, we don’t know that.” (P5) What weighs more heavily in the balance—the situational analysis obtained from other actors or an analysis of, for example, social media by the communication experts themselves—is not always clear and varies from one expert to another. One expert put it thus: “[ . . . ] what for me is a problem because we are all experts, but we are not acting now based on what is the sentiment in the community of this moment, and that information I am missing now. [ . . . ]” (P3) 3.2.2. Timing and Stakeholder Needs What seems to matter a great deal in the process of making strategy choices is timing, which was mentioned by many of the experts: “Also timing is really important, when do you release these fact sheets [ . . . ]. If you release them too early, then you may make panic, you know, you have to be really careful for the timing.” (P7) As a prerequisite for timely communication, roles and responsibilities should be clear, including a mandate for independent action by the communication experts: “[ . . . ] we should have to say that communication officers always should be ready to communicate without any special statements from the decision makers because maybe it will take another day before they confirm it’s anthrax, maybe it takes another day before they confirm that it’s two dead, but we still have to communicate something, that’s the same problem in all the crises.” (P2) Stakeholder analysis, who the relevant stakeholders are and what they expect, guides the strategy-making process from preparedness to recovery, including, for example, defining risk groups, and targeting those who are directly or indirectly affected. 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