A GIS-based methodology to estimate the regional balance of potential and demand of forest chips

Jou nal o Geog aphic In o ma ion Sys em, 2016, 8, 633-662 h p://www.sci p.o g/jou nal/jgis ISSN Online: 2151-1969 ISSN P in : 2151-1950 DOI: 10.4236/jgis.2016.85052 Oc obe 31, 2016 A GIS-Based Me hodology o Es ima e he Regional Balance o Po en ial and Demand o Fo es Chips Mikko Ni ala1, Pe u An ila2, Juha Lai ila2, Olli Salminen2, Ma i Flyk man3 1Uni e si y o Eas e n Finland, Joensuu, Finland 2Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e o Finland, Joensuu, Finland 3VTT Technical Resea ch Cen e o Finland L d, Jy äskylä, Finland Abs ac Finland’s na ional aim o annual consump ion o o es chips is 25 e awa hou s (TWh) (equi alen o 13.5 million solid cubic me es) in combined hea and powe (CHP) p oduc ion and hea p oduc ion in 2020. On a e age, he echno- economic po en ial o o es chips enables eaching he a ge a he na ional le el. Howe e , he e is a geog aphical misma ch be ween he supply and demand egions. In his s udy, he egional balance o po en ial and demand om 2012 un il 2020 was a s- sessed using GIS-based me hods. Economical, echnical and ecological cons ain s we e aken in o accoun when di e en scena ios o municipali y- le el po en ials we e calcula ed. The o es chips’ consump ion scena ios o plan -le el we e de e - mined s a is ically (2012) o p edic ed (2020) by assuming ha he o al consum p- ion o o es chips will each he 13.5 Mm3 . Wi h help o p ocu emen model, he use o di e en o es ene gy uel ypes (s umps, logging esidues and small- sized hinning wood) was sp ead o he p ocu emen ing wi h he help o GIS coding. The o es chips’ egional balance map was made by sub ac ing he use o hea and co m- bined hea and powe plan s’ (CHP) o es chips’ consump ion om he municipali y le el po en ial da a. The GIS-based me hod o balance calcula ion equi es a signi i- can amoun o compu e powe bu wo ks well o local, municipali y, egional and na ional-le el balance calcula ions. The s udy showed ha he e a e enough o es chips o supply he cu en and u u e demand when all o es ene gy asso men s a e used e icien ly and in a sus ainable manne . Howe e , he esul s indica e ha a l- eady a he p esen a e o o es chip consump ion, in some a eas he e will no be any ex a po en ial le . When consump ion inc eases, he ze o-po en ial a ea, in pa - icula on he coas , expands. The highes ee po en ial can be ound in eas e n and no he n a eas o Finland while he wes e n and sou he n a eas lack ee po en ial. How o ci e his pape : Ni ala, M., An ila, P., Lai ila, J., Salminen, O. and Flyk man, M. (2016) A GIS-Based Me hodology o Es i- ma e he Regional Balance o Po en ial and Demand o Fo es Chips . Jou nal o Ge o- g aphic In o ma ion Sys em , 8 , 633-662. h p://dx.doi.o g/10.4236/jgis.2016.85052 Recei ed: Sep embe 26, 2016 Accep ed: Oc obe 28, 2016 Published: Oc obe 31, 2016 Copy igh © 201 6 by au ho s and Scien i ic Resea ch Publishing Inc. This wo k is licensed unde he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion In e na ional License (CC BY 4.0). h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access M. Ni ala e al. 634 Keywo ds GIS-Based Me hodology, Fo es Chips, Po en ial, Balance, Bioene gy 1. In oduc ion Finland has been commi ed o he EU’s policy amewo k o clima e and ene gy un il 2020. EU membe coun ies should p oduce 20% o hei ene gy using enewable sou ces by he yea 2020. Finland’s na ional a ge is o inc ease he use o enewables om 28.5% o 38% in o al ene gy consump ion [1]. Wood-based ene gy, especially o es chips, will ha e an impo an ole when inc easing enewable ene gy use in Finland. Fo es chips o igina e om ha es ing o small-sized hinning wood in young o es s, logging esidues om egene a ion cu ings (b anches, c owns and o he wood ma e i- als ha ha e no indus ial use), and egene a ion cu ing a ea s umps, oo s and de- cayed s ems ha ha e no indus ial pu poses. Wood ene gy ha comes om side p oduc s o by-p oduc s o he wood indus y, o example, ba k, sawdus and black liquo , is al eady exploi ed ully, which means ha he e is no chance o inc ease wood ene gy usage o he han o inc ease he use o o es chips i he use o indus ial oundwood does no inc ease in Finland. Finland’s na ional enewable ene gy ac ion plan [2] and Ene gy and Clima e S a - egy’s [3] aim o annual consump ion o o es chips in combined hea and powe (CHP) p oduc ion and sepa a e hea p oduc ion in Finland in 2020 is 25 e awa hou s (TWh), which is equi alen o 13.5 million solid cubic me es (Mm3). The s a egy also aims o inc ease signi ican ly he use o o es chips as eeds ock o anspo a ion u- els. The na ional a ge o anspo a ion uels is 7 TWh in he yea 2020 o igina ing om enewable sou ces [2]. The es ima ed o al consump ion o ene gy in Finland in 2012 was 382 TWh. The use o wood ene gy in he yea 2012 was, in o al, 92 TWh. Fo es chip consump ion was 8.3 Mm3 [4]. The majo use s o o es chips (7.6 Mm3) we e hea and combined hea and powe plan s (CHP). A ound 0.7 Mm3 o o es chips we e used in he a ms and p ope ies’ hea ing sys ems [4]. In he yea 2015 he use o o es chips was sligh ly de- c eased o 8 Mm3 which is including he use o o es chips in hea ing and CHP plan s (7.3 Mm3) and in small households (0.7 Mm3) [5]. When es ima ing he amoun o o es chips, he basis o he es ima ion is he heo- e ical maximum po en ial [6]. Theo e ical po en ial includes he hinning wood bio- mass coming om o es managemen p ac ices and he elled ees ha s ay in he o - es a e hinning, logging esidues, s umps and oo s. Theo e ical po en ial can also in- clude he cu ing sa ings, which means he di e ence be ween he annual g ow h and i s educ ion. Theo e ical po en ial is no possible o exploi ully because many echni- cal, economical, ecological and social ac o s limi he po en ial, and each o hese needs M. Ni ala e al. 635 o be es ima ed sepa a ely [6]. These kinds o limi a ions a e, o example, he echnical capabili y o eco e y a e in he ha es ing si e, s o age losses, quali y need o aw ma- e ial (can he plan use a whole ee o only delimbed s emwood), he size o he ha - es ing a ea and he a e age ha es ing olume pe hec a e (economic aspec ), o es owne s’ willingness o sell he wood and o es managemen guidelines and good p ac- ices, which a e mean o educe ha m ul e ec s on o es g ow h o he en i onmen . In addi ion o hese, also he o es ene gy compe i i eness compa ed o o he uels e- duces he heo e ical po en ial [6]. The e ha e been se e al ea lie s udies aimed a es ima ing he o es chips supply and demand p oblems in Finland. An ila e al . [7] used he Na ional Fo es In en o y plo in o ma ion o es ima e he annual small-sized hinning wood po en ial o be 6.2 - 10.4 Mm3 depending on ha es ing me hods. The logging esidues po en ial was 4.0 - 6.6 Mm3 and sp uce ( Picea abies ) s ump po en ial was 1.5 - 2.5 Mm3, depending on he annual cu ing le el. In he s udy, he municipali y le el cu ing s a is ic was con e ed o he o es ene gy po en ial using coe icien s om ea lie s udies [8] [9]. This p ob- lem wi h his app oach is ha i is only limi ed o cu en cu ing le els. Also, his s udy did no include he egional di e ences in he p opo ion o logs om clea cu ing in di e en pa s o Finland. Ran a did a s udy on logging esidue po en ial and es ima ed also he balance based on he usage o selec ed plan s [10]. In ano he s udy by Ran a [11], a GIS app oach simila o ha used in his s udy was employed, bu only he 50 bigges plan s’ o es chip demands we e aken in o accoun . A simila s udy has also been done in Japan [12] whe e logging esidues, hinned ees, and selec i ely cu ees om b oad-lea ed o es s we e de ined as he o es bio- mass and he a ailabili y o biomass was calcula ed based on he supply cos s and o- pog aphical condi ions. This s udy was done o a speci ic moun ainous egion o Japan and no o he whole na ion. Also, se e al simila egional po en ials o wood o o es biomass ha e been ca ied ou o example in he Uni ed S a es [13], in No he n Spain [14], in Canada [15] No way [16] and Slo akia [17]. In Japan also a s udy o he usage o o es biomass has been ca ied ou wi h he help o GIS [18]. The e a e se e al Eu opean-le el s udies o wood o o es biomass po en ial on a Eu opean scale [19] [20] [21] [22] as well as se e al na ional-le el po en ial s udies which a e no based on GIS-me hods. GIS-based me hods ha e also been used in o he biomass po en ial e alua ions, o example, Voi on as [23] s udied ag icul u al esidues po en ial o powe p oduc ion on he island o C e e. In he s udy, elec ici y gene a ion cos was used as a c i e ion o he iden i ica ion o he si es o economically exploi ed biomass po en ial. Also, bioene gy po en ial has been es ima ed in England, whe e spa ial da a was used on po- en ial supply and demand o p edic bioene gy po en ial [24]. The s udy was concen- a ed on miscan hus biomass and he cos s o biomass eeds ock anspo a ion is aken in o accoun , as well as he ene gy use and he spa ial ela ionship be ween po- en ial supply and demand. Se e al egional-le el s udies ha e also been ca ied ou in, o example, No he n I aly [25] [26], Po ugal [27] [28], India [29] [30] and Chinese M. Ni ala e al. 636 Taipei [31]. In Finland, biomass po en ial o biogas p oduc ion was examined by using a GIS-based me hodology, which also included biomass anspo op imiza ion con- side ing he exis ing oad ne wo k and spa ially a ied biomass sou ces [32]. The s udy used a me hod whe e he Ke nel Densi y (KD) maps we e calcula ed o pinpoin a eas wi h high biomass concen a ion. The e a e only a ew na ional-le el o es ene gy po en ial calcula ions ha a e based on GIS [7] [10] [33] [34]. Only he s udy by An ila and a s udy by Ran a ha e aken in o accoun he demand, as well as he balance, o supply and demand. Bo h s udies had some limi a ions. Fo example, he s udy by Ran a concen a ed only on one o es chip asso men . The e is a clea need o c ea e a new s udy o his opic and c ea e a calcula ion me hod and p ocess o a na ional-le el o es balance calcula ion ha could also be used in o he egions o locally o suppo enewable ene gy use. The aim o he s udy was o 1) es ima e and isualize o es chips’ po en ial in Finland 2) calcula e and es ima e o es chips’ use in hea and CHP plan s in Finland in 2020 and 3) calcula e he di e ence be ween he po en ial and use o o es chips, which can be e e ed o as he o es chips’ balance map, in Finland om 2012 o 2020. The o es chips’ balance is calcula ed as solid cubic me es (m3). 2. Ma e ials and Me hods 2.1. Fo es Chips Po en ial The o es chips po en ial consis s o small-sized hinning wood om he young o es and logging esidues and s umps om egene a ion cu ings. 2.1.1. Small-Sized Thinning Wood om Young Fo es The small-sized hinning wood po en ial is based on Finland’s 10 h Na ional Fo es In- en o y (NFI 10) da a [35]. The ield plo s ha e been measu ed be ween yea s 2004- 2008. Po en ials ha e been calcula ed o he municipali y le el using h ee di e en ha es ing op ions. In all hese ha es ing op ions, he minimum yield o ha es ed ene gy wood was se o be 25 m3/ha, which was assumed o be he le el a which ha es ing would be econ- omical. Two o he op ions we e ene gy wood only ha es ing (delimbed s emwood and whole ee), whe e he maximum yield o indus ial oundwood was se o 45 m3/ha and s ands which ha e highe accumula ion, we e alloca ed o indus ial oundwood use. In he whole ee op ion, also li ing b anches we e added o he po en ial. In he hi d op- ion, he ha es ing me hod was in eg a ed ene gy wood and indus ial wood ha es - ing. In his in eg a ed op ion, only pu e coni e ous ee o bi ch plo s, whe e he domi- nan ee species accumula ion was g ea e han 20 m3/ha, he a e age size o ha es ed ee was g ea e han 30 dm3 and ene gy wood ha es ing accumula ion was g ea e han 25 m3/ha, we e included o he po en ial. Ene gy wood om his in eg a ed op ion was assumed o be delimbed s emwood, as ha es ing will be done wi h he same ha - es e and a he same ime as he indus ial oundwood ha es ing. I he oundwood accumula ion was less han 20 m3/ha, he plo was assumed o be ene gy wood only us- M. Ni ala e al. 637 ing he whole ee ha es ing me hod. In all hese op ions he s emwood and b anches echnical eco e y a es we e assumed o be 100%. In he whole ee ha es ing, dead b anches we e assumed o all o du ing ha es ing and anspo a ion. The NFI esul s we e in MS Excel o ma and hey we e mo ed o he A cGIS 10.2. en i onmen using municipali y laye and municipali y ID. The isualiza ion p ocess is desc ibed in Figu e 1. 2.1.2. Logging Residues and S ump Biomass Po en ials om Regene a ion Cu ings In his s udy, he es ima ion o logging esidues and s umps is based on he egional cu ing possibili y esul s a ailable a h p://www.me la. i/me in o/mela and which we e made using he MELA p og am, a o es planning ool o Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland (Luke) [36]. The used MELA esul s a e based on he Na ional Fo es In en o y plo s measu ed du ing he yea s 2008-2012 (h p://www.me la. i/me in o/ mi/). The maximum scena io (MAX) maximizes he ne p esen alue a a 4% discoun ed a e subjec o non-declining pe iodic o al oundwood and ene gy wood emo als, saw log emo als and ne income. The e a e no sus ainabili y cons ain s conce ning ee Figu e 1. P ocess o o es chips po en ial c ea ion using GIS. In he igu e, he le e P inside he box indica es ha he unc ion is pa- ame ized and allows analyses o di e en uel sou ces. M. Ni ala e al. 638 species, cu ing me hods, age classes o he g ow h/d ain a io in o de o e icien ly u ilize he dynamics o o es s uc u e. In he business as usual (BAU) scena io, he ne p esen alue is maximized wi h a 4% discoun a e subjec o ealized cu ing le els in s udied egions du ing he yea s 2009-2012. The es ima ed o es ene gy po en ials om egene a ion cu ings we e b ough in o he GIS en i onmen joined wi h he municipali y laye , and hen con e ed using he p ocess desc ibed in Figu e 1 wi h he p oduc ion o es laye . 2.2. Fo es Chips Use in Finland We apply wo scena ios o he u u e use o o es chips in his s udy. The i s scena io is based on he ealized usage o o es chips in he yea 2012 (h p://s a .luke. i/en). The second scena io is based on he o icial a ge ha Finland will achie e o es chips use equal o 13.5 Mm3/yea by he yea 2020 [3]. 2.2.1. Use o Fo es Chips in 2012 In he yea 2012, he e we e 860 plan s using o es chips and hei o al consump ion o o es chips in solid cubic me es was 7.6 Mm3 [37]. The p opo ion o impo ed wood om his sum was 400,000 m3. Mos o he o es chips use s we e small plan s (Figu e 2). The e we e only 21 plan s ha used mo e han 100,000 m3 o es chips, bu hey ep esen ed mo e han hal o he o al o es chips consump ion. The s a is ic in- cluded in o ma ion abou plan size, uel ypes, size and ci y. The exac loca ion was collec ed du ing he s udy and each plan was geocoded in o GIS using A cGIS 10.2. 2.2.2. Use o Fo es Chips in 2020 VTT, he Technical Resea ch Cen e o Finland, has collec ed da a o Finland’s o es chips end-use acili ies o o e 30 yea s. The da abase includes mo e han 400 plan s wi h basic in- o ma ion: combus ion echnology, boile size and e iciency, yea o building o eno a ion yea and aw ma e ial used. Wi h he help o he da abase, a p edic ion o he plan s ha need o be eno a ed in he coming yea s was made. The smalle plan s ha we e no in he da abase we e assumed o use he same amoun o o es chips in he yea 2020 han in 2012. The use o o es chips was planned in a way ha Finland will achie e i s 13.5 Mm3 a ge o o es chips use in he yea 2020. The use o o es chips in 2020 was es ima ed o be p ima y ene gy consump ion, and i was con e ed o he solid cubic me es o ene gy wood using he coe icien 2 MWh/m3. The o es chips sou ce p opo ion ( uel ypes: s umps, logging esidues and hinning wood) was assumed o be simila as in a 2012 s a is ic [37]. The impo ed wood ene gy was also assumed o be a a simila le el as i was in 2012, meaning ha he amoun was inc easing om 400,000 m3 o 600,000 m3 in he yea 2020. I was also assumed ha he plan s will no s a immedia ely o use he highe amoun o wood ene gy, bu will slowly inc ease he use o o es chips un il eaching hei se alue in he yea 2020. This decision was based on he ac ha he inc eased use o o es chips equi es also mo e esou ces, which migh mean ha i will ake ime be o e he plan s a e eady o ope a e a ull capaci y. The only excep ion o his ule was he new plan s M. Ni ala e al. 639 Figu e 2. Plan s ha used o es chips in Finland in 2012. Plan s ha e been classi ied in o i e di e en ca ego ies depending on he amoun o chips consumed. which s a ed o use hei es ima ed amoun a e he es ima ed building ime. In new plan s i is ypical ha he p opo ion o o es chips used a ies in he la ge plan s be ween 60% - 80% bu smalle plan s will use only o es chips. Complemen a y uels in bigge plan s in Finland a e ypically pea and coal. The s udy also akes in o con- side a ion he ac ha enewing he plan will ake a ime. Typically a plan is used o decades, and i he uel ype is going o be changed, new uni s a e needed. E en hough many smalle plan s a e popping-up each yea , he bigges e ec on he o al con- sump ion o o es chips in Finland is due o he big CHP plan s, which ha e s a ed o use enewable ene gy. I was assumed ha he use o pea would also inc ease o he M. Ni ala e al. 640 le el o 16 TWh o he yea 2020 when alloca ing and es ima ing he use o o es chips in he yea 2020. A he same ime, i was assumed ha he condensing powe p oduc- ion using o es chips would dec ease when he new planned nuclea plan s a e eady in Finland. To achie e he a ge o 2020, new big plan s ha use o es chips will be needed in Finland. Fo example, in his s udy, i was es ima ed ha in he Helsinki e- gion, he use o o es chips will inc ease o he le el o h ee TWh because o he new o es ene gy p ojec s. 2.2.3. Modelling he P ocu emen o End-Use Facili ies The plan da abase was con e ed and geocoded o he GIS en i onmen whe e he modelling o he p ocu emen was done o each plan . The p ocu emen a ea was based on ea lie esea ch [38]. The plan s we e ca ego ized in o i e di e en classes acco ding o he size o he plan . Fo each class, he maximum p ocu emen dis ance was de e mined using he same dis ances as in [38] Table 1. In he p ocu emen model, i was included ha he plan is ying o ob ain he aw ma e ial as close o he plan as possible. This was done by using di e en p ocu emen ci cles o each size o plan class, p esen ed ea lie in Table 1. The plan ies o ge he same amoun o aw ma e ial om all he p ocu emen ci cles, which leads o he si ua- ion whe e he p ocu emen in ensi y is highe close o he plan whe e he p ocu e- men ci cle is smalle . When he ci cle size inc eases, and he p ocu emen happens u he om he plan , also he p ocu emen in ensi y is lowe pe squa e kilome e. Fo smalle plan s i was assumed ha hey ha e only one p ocu emen ci cle, bu he bigge plan s will always ha e one p ocu emen ci cle mo e when he plan class ca e- go y is highe . The bigges plan s (plan class numbe i e) will hen ha e i e p ocu e- men ci cles (Figu e 3). The maximum Euclidian p ocu emen dis ance in his s udy was decided o be 200 kilome es. The use o di e en o es ene gy uel sou ces in each plan was dependen on he s a is ics o Me la [37], and he use o di e en o es en- e gy uel ypes (s umps, logging esidues and small-sized hinning wood) we e sp ead o he p ocu emen ing wi h he help o GIS coding. A decision was made ha he p ocu emen would come om he o es s a ailable o wood supply (FAWS) in a simila way as he o es chips po en ial. Sui able land o wood p oduc ion in his s udy was aken om he CORINE Land Co e 2005 classes 311,312,313 and 321 which ep esen closed o es land o spa sely o es ed land a eas. P o ec ion, conse a ion as well as he Na u a 2000 ne wo k a eas we e e ased om he p ocu emen a eas Table 1. The maximum p ocu emen dis ance o each plan class ha was used in his s udy. Plan class P ocu emen a ea adius, km Fo es chips use, m3 1 30 ≤3000 2 60 ≤10,000 3 100 ≤80,000 4 150 ≤175,000 5 200 >175,000 M. Ni ala e al. 641 (Figu e 4). When dis ibu ing he p ocu emen o he p ocu emen ci cles and when a plan ’s p ocu emen ci cles we e o e lap-ping, he p ocu emen need o each a ea was sum- ma ized using he Supe RegionPolygon ool [39] (Figu e 4). Figu e 3. P ocu emen in ensi y model and me hodology o he i s h ee plan classes. Figu e 4. P ocess o o es chips use c ea ion using GIS- ools. M. Ni ala e al. 648 Figu e 12. Small-sized hinning wood balance 2012 and 2020 when he ha es ing me hod is delimbed s emwood. Figu e 13. Small-sized hinning wood balance 2012 and 2020 when he ha es ing me hod is whole ee. M. Ni ala e al. 649 Figu e 14. Small-sized hinning wood balance 2012 and 2020 when he ha es ing me hod is in eg a ed. Figu e 15. Logging esidues balance 2012 and 2020 when he cu ing le el ollows he 2008-2012 a e age s a is ic (BAU). M. Ni ala e al. 650 Figu e 16. Logging esidues balance 2012 and 2020 when he cu ing le el is he maximum sus ainable economic le el (MAX). Figu e 17. S umps balance 2012 and 2020 when he cu ing le el ollows he 2008- 2012 a e age s a is ic (BAU). M. Ni ala e al. 651 Figu e 18. S umps balance 2012 and 2020 when he cu ing le el is he maximum sus ainable economic le el (MAX). Table 3. Po en ials o o es chips, 1000 solid m3. Region Delimbed s emwood Whole ee In eg a ed Logging esidues ( BAU ) Logging esidues ( MAX ) S umps ( BAU ) S umps ( MAX ) Åland Islands 24 36 26 2 21 28 47 Coas (sou h) 0 138 0 3 201 111 308 Coas (No h) 0 44 0 116 225 155 270 Sou hwes -Finland 0 0 0 99 469 352 728 Ta as ia-Uusimaa 0 105 0 247 599 606 905 Sou heas -Finland 87 172 111 277 506 459 684 Pi kanmaa 0 116 58 133 521 329 731 Sou h-Sa onia 221 393 146 437 777 656 982 Sou h-Os obo hnia 7 135 0 185 451 280 551 Cen al Finland 123 278 197 363 743 565 966 No h-Sa onia 267 455 227 439 891 580 1085 No h Ka elia 389 573 433 362 797 476 935 Kainuu 374 537 289 376 743 425 761 No h-Os obo hnia 670 997 436 463 987 467 971 Lapland 648 912 1303 422 963 487 974 To al 2809 4891 3226 3924 8893 5973 10,898 M. Ni ala e al. 652 Table 4. Po en ials o o es chips, 1000 solid m3. Region Delimbed s emwood Whole ee In eg a ed Logging esidues ( BAU ) Logging esidues ( MAX ) S umps ( BAU ) S umps ( MAX ) Åland Islands 22 34 24 0 17 26 45 Coas (sou h) 0 0 0 0 178 102 299 Coas (No h) 0 15 0 91 199 133 248 Sou hwes -Finland 0 0 0 1 369 323 699 Ta as ia-Uusimaa 0 0 0 134 492 581 881 Sou heas -Finland 0 131 0 234 463 441 666 Pi kanmaa 0 0 0 56 447 314 716 Sou h-Sa onia 0 316 0 387 727 650 976 Sou h-Os obo hnia 0 0 0 143 409 255 526 Cen al Finland 0 126 0 305 685 554 955 No h-Sa onia 66 383 87 380 831 576 1081 No h Ka elia 372 563 415 346 781 452 912 Kainuu 370 552 277 343 710 419 755 No h-Os obo hnia 272 826 50 404 928 450 955 Lapland 607 882 1259 377 918 472 959 To al 1710 3829 2112 3201 8154 5747 10,673 Table 5. The o es chips balance in he yea 2020. The able shows he balance in each o es chips uel sou ce and calcula ion me hod (1000 m3). Region Delimbed s emwood Whole ee In eg a ed Logging esidues ( BAU ) Logging esidues ( MAX ) S umps ( BAU ) S umps ( MAX ) Åland Islands 0 0 0 0 10 23 42 Coas (sou h) 0 0 0 0 3 3 182 Coas (No h) 0 0 0 0 228 123 239 Sou hwes -Finland 0 0 0 0 46 179 555 Ta as ia-Uusimaa 0 0 0 0 19 402 718 Sou heas -Finland 0 0 0 0 339 404 630 Pi kanmaa 0 0 0 0 303 254 656 Sou h-Sa onia 0 0 0 30 659 632 959 Sou h-Os obo hnia 0 0 0 0 426 246 517 Cen al Finland 0 0 0 31 662 533 934 No h-Sa onia 0 0 0 346 798 566 1072 No h Ka elia 0 527 0 319 754 447 907 Kainuu 0 467 0 336 703 415 751 No h-Os obo hnia 0 451 0 401 926 446 951 Lapland 46 686 466 343 884 465 953 To al 46 2130 466 1805 6759 5138 10,064 M. Ni ala e al. 653 Finland owa ds Cen al Finland and om he Kemi-To nio a ea owa ds Eas Lapland app oaching he yea 2020 wi h highe o es chips use es ima ions (Table 4, Table 5 and Figu e 15 and Figu e 16). In he case o s umps, he only a eas whe e o es chips consump ion is g ea e han he po en ial can be ound om he Kemi-To nio a ea in 2015, bu also om he Sou h Coas in he yea 2020 (Figu e 17 and Figu e 18). I all agmen s a e summa ized and included in he same balance calcula ion, he si ua ion is no as bad as i only one agmen is obse ed. In he yea 2012, he e is ee po en ial nea ly all o e he coun y. I he cu ing will emain a he same le el as in 2008-2012 and i o es chips use will inc ease as we es ima ed in 2015 and 2020, he e is no ee po en ial le in he Sou h Coas and Kemi-To nio a eas (Figu e 19). I he Figu e 19. Fo es chips balance 2012 and 2020 when all o es chips asso men s a e summa ized. The wo maps abo e a e om scena ios whe e he cu ing le el would be he maximum sus ainable le el (MAX). The wo maps below a e om scena ios when he cu ing le el would be same as he cu en le el (BAU). M. Ni ala e al. 654 cu ing le el would be highe in he u u e, he e would be much mo e o es chips po- en ial h oughou Finland and ze o po en ial a eas could be ound only in some small a eas o he Sou h Coas and Kemi-To nio a ea. 4. Discussion The new GIS-based me hod o o es chips calcula ion wo ked well a he na ional le el bu also o egional, municipali y and local le els. Ea lie s udies ha e no been able o c ea e maps wi h as accu a e esolu ion in Finland ( e e ence) as we eached wi h his me hod. In ou s udy, he esolu ion was 1 ha, which was he limi a ion com- ing om he lowes esolu ion da a, na u al pa ks and p o ec ion a eas. Also, he com- pu ing powe o a no mal PC canno handle a mo e accu a e calcula ion wi hou changing he da a i s o he as e o ma , which has he limi a ion o da a s o age when he esolu ion is inc eases and simila ly depends on he lowes - esolu ion da a. Wi h he help o c ea ed laye s, u he analysis conce ning logis ics o supply chains o op imal loca ions o new o planned hea and CHP plan s a e possible. The esul s can also be used in many kinds o p ocu emen analysis and decision making o policy e- la ed o enewable ene gy and especially wood ene gy. The s udy can be epea ed in o he egions o coun ies bu is dependen on he sou ce da a and some small adjus - men s o he p ocess models migh be needed (Figu e 1, Figu e 4 and Figu e 6). This s udy aimed a he o es chips balance calcula ion, bu by changing he sou ce da a i could be used o indus ial wood supply and demand balance mapping as well as simi- la analyses in o he sec o s. In his s udy, he es ima ion o p ocu emen a eas, anspo a ion dis ances and p ocu emen models a e ough assump ions based on he su ey. The e is no public da a a ailable o ac ual p ocu emen a eas o he ma ke sha es o each o es ene gy ac ion. This could be s udied in u u e esea ch p ojec s. Fu he mo e, he e we e only wo scena ios o he po en ials and wo o he con- sump ion. While hese ep esen he likely ex emes in he u u e, mo e scena ios could be added in he ollowing s udies o desc ibe al e na i e u u es. Mo eo e , a sensi i i y analysis o he es ima ion pa ame es should be ca ied ou . When analysing he esul s and compa ing he po en ial o he cu en use, he big- ges ee po en ial is in s umps. To inc ease he use o s umps, he logis ics o s umps need o be imp o ed as well as he quali y managemen h oughou he supply chain [40] [41]. The po en ial calcula ion did no ake in o accoun he new o es law ha was implemen ed in 2014 which allows une en-aged ea men in o es managemen . In ou s udy, we assumed ha he cu ings would be simila o ea lie yea s. Also, his s udy did no include he o es chips used by small households. A he whole coun y le el in he yea 2012, o es chips use equalled 7.6 Mm3 and 0.7 Mm3 o o es chips, mainly om hinning wood, we e used in a ms and household hea ing [4]. In he u- u e, he use o o es chips will inc ease in small-sized hea ing en e p ises ha ypically ha e boile s in he size ange o 100 kW o 1.5 MW and in some la ge powe plan s ha will equi e eno a ion in he nea u u e. The main use g oup will s ill be he la ge M. Ni ala e al. 655 Combined Hea and Powe Plan s (CHP plan s) ha ope a e o he indus ial and cen- al hea ing ne wo k pu poses. These plan s’ p opo ions o he o al consump ion o o es chips equal abou 70%. Fo es chips balance de elopmen seems o be logical ela ing o ime as he use is inc easing mos in Sou h Finland assuming he a ge in 2020 will be me . As he big- ges inc ease po en ial in consump ion will be in eplacing ossil uels in la ge-scale plan s loca ed mainly on he coas o Finland, he ze o-po en ial egion sp eads om Sou h-Wes Finland owa ds Eas and No h. The ze o po en ial a eas in Lapland a e mainly caused because o he small ha es ing po en ial o o es chips, no because o he high demand o use. Howe e , he de elopmen in consump ion o o es chips in ecen yea s sugges s ha i will be di icul o each he 2020 a ge . The consump ion peaked in 2013, bu has been declining in 2014 and 2015. In 2015 he use o o es chips was 7.3 Mm3 in plan s and 0.7 Mm3 in small-scale housing [42]. I he es ima ed use is no achie ed, i means ha he e will be a lo mo e ee po en ial le han ou spa ial maps and calcula ions showed. The ee po en ial does no au oma ically mean a aila- bili y, which also depends on he o es owne s’ willingness o sell he wood. Also, he company ha owns he igh o he egene a ion cu ing can own he igh o he log- ging esidues and s umps, and i could be ha he company may no be in e es ed in making use o he po en ial o he o es chips. The o es owne s’ willingness o sell he wood has been s udied, bu because he business en i onmen has changed a lo since ha ime, i was no possible o include ha pa in he calcula ion. The s udy esul s a y a lo bu he end o he o es owne s’ willingness o sell he ene gy wood is posi i e [43] [44] [45]. The eal a ailabili y is anyway less han he ee po en ial, which can be seen in ou esul s. On he o he hand, his s udy concen a es on showing he egions whe e use could be s ill inc eased o whe e he ee po en ial is g ea e han he use. In he eal si ua ion o cou se, all he o es chips a e unde he compe i ion o plan s ha use i , bu i is complica ed o model. In his s udy, his is aken in o accoun by de ining he p ocu emen models o each plan size class. As o es chips use inc eases, he wood ha ul ils he size and quali y equi emen s o indus ial wood (mainly pulp wood), migh end up in he combus ion u nace mo e o en, especially i he indus ial plan is loca ed a away om he s and, o he e is no demand o ha wood because o he ma ke si ua ion o i he ene gy indus y is able o pay a be e p ice han he o es indus y. This is he eason why in he eal li e si ua ion he bigge wood sizes a e used in he hea and CHP plan s. This ac o is e- sponsible o unde es ima ion o he small-sized hinning wood ee po en ial in ou esul s, as la ge -sized hinning wood is no included in ou po en ial bu is hen in- cluded in he o es chips use es ima ion. This s a is ic o used o es chips would need o be imp o ed in he u u e, o do a mo e de ailed analysis o he small-sized hinning wood balance. The e ha e been some signs ha he consump ion o indus ial oundwood (mainly pulp) will inc ease signi ican ly in Finland [46]. On he o he hand, when he indus ial use o wood inc eases, also he supply o solid by-p oduc s inc ease which means a M. Ni ala e al. 656 highe amoun o ba k, and saw dus o be possibly used in hea and CHP plan s, which means ha he demand o o es chips would be lowe . The amoun o impo ed wood be ween yea s 2010-2013 was on a e age 109,000 m3 o i ewood (Figu e 20) [47] [48]. In his s udy, he amoun o impo ed o es chips was assumed o s ay a a ela i ely simila le el as in he yea 2012. Because he amoun o impo ed wood could a y sig- ni ican ly in u u e, a s udy including some impo scena ios would be use ul. 5. Conclusions This s udy showed ha he o es chips’ a ge o 2020 could be achie ed. Howe e , his equi es: 1) Fo es chips’ use in new in es men s, especially in Sou h and coas al Finland. 2) Powe and CHP plan s ha a e using coal, will eplace hei aw ma e ial wi h o es chips. 3) Condensing ha powe plan s a e compe i i e using o es chips as hei aw ma- e ial. A he momen he bigges h ea o inc eased use o o es chips is he low p ice o ossil uels and elec ici y. This s udy suppo s o es ene gy de elopmen bu also p o- ides ele an in o ma ion o he o es indus y, especially how he ma ke can be changed when Finland is ying o achie e hei na ional o es ene gy a ge . Wi h he cu en le el o indus ial oundwood cu ings, he e will be a lack o o es chips in some egions o Finland, i Finland wan s o achie e he o es ene gy a ge by Figu e 20. Fo es indus y wood impo s in Finland, 2000-2012. M. Ni ala e al. 657 2020 using only domes ic wood esou ces. The bigges gap be ween he o ecas ed use and es ima ed po en ial can be ound om he sou he n coas o Finland and he Kemi-To nio a ea. Be o e he yea 2012, he g ea es inc ease in he use o o es chips was s ill in small-sized hinning wood, bu in he yea 2020 he e will be a lack o small-sized hinning wood when he use is inc eased a e he in es men s in he plan s using o es chips a e ealized. A e 2020, he bigges ee po en ial o o es chips is in egene a ion cu ing logging esidues and s umps. On he o he hand, logging esidues will be in ull use Sou h-Finland, i he cu ing le el emains a he ac ual le el o 2008-2012. The bigges ee po en ial o o es chips can be ound in Cen al Finland, Eas e n Finland and Kainuu. The bigges inc ease in he use o o es chips is loca ed on he coas o Finland, which will lead o he si ua ion whe e he anspo a ion dis ances a e going o be longe . Because o hese easons, he e is a need o educe he cos o long- dis ance anspo a ion and esea ch he possibili ies and bene i s o ound- ip ans- po a ion. The e is g ea po en ial and possibili ies o inc ease he use o s umps i he ha es ing cos s can be educed and i he quali y o o es chips om s umps can be imp o ed. In he enewable ene gy a ge o Finland, he impo ance o he o es en- e gy is signi ican . When he use o o es chips inc eases, he challenges in o es chips’ p ocu emen will g ow. Howe e , he e a e se e al ways o inc ease he use o o es ene gy. One op ion is o inc ease imbe ha es ing which would inc ease he po en ial coming om he logging esidues and s umps, bu i would also inc ease he wood en- e gy coming om he o es indus ies’ by-p oduc s. E en hough his s udy ocuses on o es chips, wood ene gy coming om he o es indus y is a enewable ene gy sou ce as he ene gy is p oduced by using domes ic o es chips’ esou ces. I is also possible o b oaden he o es chips’ aw ma e ial sou ces. In his s udy, he small-sized hinning wood po en ial did no include he small-sized pulp wood ha es ing si es; some o hem a e used o o es chips’ pu poses al eady now. This kind o wood combus ion is sensible when he o es indus y use poin s a e loca ed a away, demand is low and he quali y o wood is weak o indus ial pu poses. On he coas o Finland, i is also possi- ble o impo o es chips using sea anspo a ion, bu his is no ecommended i Finland wan s o keep a posi i e ade balance, keep he e enues high o o es own- e s, inc ease employmen and con inue he sus ainabili y plan. Domes ic o es chips can also be anspo ed using wa e ways o ailways. Las ly, he o es chips’ inc ease depends on poli ical decisions ha mus ensu e ha he o es chips can be compa able o ossil uels in hea and CHP plan s. Re e ences [1] Val ioneu os o (2008) Pi kän aika älin ilmas o-ja ene gias a egia [Long-Te m Clima e and Ene gy S a egy]. Val ioneu os on selon eko Eduskunnalle 6. Päi änä ma askuu a 2008. (In Finnish) h ps://www.eduskun a. i/FI/ aski/Selon eko/Documen s/ ns_6+2008.pd [2] Työ-ja elinkeinominis e iö (2010) Suomen kansallinen oimin asuunni elma uusiu u is a läh eis ä pe äisin ole an ene gian edis ämises ä di ek ii in 2009/28/EY mukaises i [Fin- land’s Na ional Ac ion Plan o De elopmen o Renewables Acco ding o he Di ec i e