Regional balance of forest chip supply and demand in Finland in 2030
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SILVA FENNICA
Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902
Ca ego y: esea ch a icle
h ps://doi.o g/10.14214/s .9902
h p://www.sil a ennica. i
Licenced CC BY-SA 4.0
ISSN-L 0037-5330 | ISSN 2242-4075 (Online)
The Finnish Socie y o Fo es Science
Pe u An ila1, Vesa Ni ala 2, Olli Salminen 3, Ma kus Hu skainen 4, Janne Kä ki 4,
Tomi J. Lind oos 5 and An i Asikainen1
Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand in
Finland in 2030
An ila P., Ni ala V., Salminen O., Hu skainen M., Kä ki J., Lind oos T.J., Asikainen A. (2018).
Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand in Finland in 2030. Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no.
2 a icle id 9902. 20 p. h ps://doi.o g/10.14214/s .9902
Highligh s
• The impac o inc easing o es chip demand in 2030 was analyzed in Finland.
• Demand o small ees may exceed po en ial a he na ional le el.
• Su plus po en ial will emain in logging esidues and s umps.
• Ho spo s o demand call o e icien logis ical solu ions.
Abs ac
Acco ding o he Na ional Ene gy and Clima e S a egy o Finland in 2016, he demand o o es
chips, ha is, wood chips made o o es biomass di ec ly o ene gy use, could e en double by
2030 compa ed o he p esen si ua ion. A spa ially explici impac analysis o egional supply and
demand balances o o es chips was ca ied ou . The balances we e calcula ed as he di e ence
be ween echnical ha es ing po en ials and demand. Fi s , he echnical po en ials we e es ima ed
based on he na ional o es in en o y da a. Secondly, h ee demand scena ios we e de ined o
2030 and subsequen ly deduc ed om he po en ials. The esul s sugges ed ha he e would be
inc easing compe i ion o eeds ock in sou he n and wes e n Finland, whe eas in eas e n and
no he n Finland he e would s ill be su plus po en ial. Mo eo e , due o he ema kable de ici
o small ees in sou he n Finland, he e migh be p essu e owa ds using mo e pulpwood-sized
and/o impo ed wood in ene gy p oduc ion. The esul s also showed ha , in pa icula , la ge
new plan s consuming subs an ial amoun s o o es chips could ha e a signi ican e ec on he
egional a ailabili y o o es chips. Mo eo e , wi h inc easing anspo dis ances, new logis ical
solu ions will be needed.
Keywo ds a ailabili y; bioene gy; ene gy wood; GIS; po en ial
Add esses 1Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland (Luke), Yliopis oka u 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Fin-
land; 2 Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland (Luke), E elä an a 55, FI-96300 Ro aniemi, Finland;
3 Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland (Luke), La oka anonkaa i 9, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland;
4 VTT Technical Resea ch Cen e o Finland L d, Koi u annan ie 1, FI-40400 Jy äskylä, Finland;
5 VTT Technical Resea ch Cen e o Finland L d, Vuo imiehen ie 3 (Espoo), P.O. Box 1000,
FI-02044 VTT, Finland
E-mail [email p o ec ed]
Recei ed 6 No embe 2017 Re ised 17 Ap il 2018 Accep ed 24 Ap il 2018
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
1 In oduc ion
The Na ional Ene gy and Clima e S a egy o Finland in 2016 ou lines he ac ions ha will enable
Finland o a ain he a ge s o he Go e nmen P og amme and hose o he EU o mee he chal-
lenging 80–95% educ ion in g eenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (Hu unen 2017). Finland has
al eady achie ed he 2020 enewable ene gy a ge , whe e wood-based uels, such as ba k, sawdus ,
black liquo , logging esidues, and wood om ea ly hinnings, ha e played a key ole in eplacing
ossil uels in he ene gy sys em. In 2015, a o al o 26% o he ne p ima y ene gy p oduc ion was
wood based and hus wood is al eady he mos impo an uel in he Finnish ene gy mix (O icial
S a is ics o Finland 2016).
In addi ion o he indus ial esidues, he shi om ossil uels o enewables also equi es
mo e biomass ha can be sou ced di ec ly om he o es . Acco ding o he impac assessmen o
he Ene gy and Clima e S a egy (Koljonen e al. 2017), he consump ion o o es chips (i.e. wood
chips made o o es biomass di ec ly o ene gy use) could ise o 13–15 million solid cubic me es
(Mm3). Since he yea 2000, he use o o es chips has been inc easing apidly, and in 2015 hei
consump ion in hea ing and combined hea and powe (CHP) plan s o alled 7.3 Mm3 (O icial
S a is ics o Finland 2016). Besides he ac ha o es chips a e enewable, hei u iliza ion can
ha e posi i e e ec s on, o example, he na ional balance o ade and u al employmen . In o de
o ensu e sus ainable le el o o es chip consump ion, a ge s o scena ios in which i is inc eased
should be con as ed wi h es ima es o sus ainable ha es ing po en ial.
Geog aphical In o ma ion Sys ems (GISs) a e a easible ool o assessing he echnical
ha es ing po en ials o o es chips as bo h he amoun o biomass and many o he cons ain s
on ha es ing a e loca ion speci ic. Indeed, se e al s udies ha e u ilized GIS in he es ima ion o
po en ials a na ional, egional, o plan le el (see o example No d-La sen and Talbo 2004; Rø s ad
e al. 2010; Yoshioka e al. 2011; Boucha d e al. 2013; Fe nandez-Lac uz e al. 2015; Cas ellano
e al. 2009; Muinonen e al. 2013; Lundma k e al. 2015; Noon and Daly 1996).
In he amewo k o he abo e-men ioned s udies, he u iliza ion o o es chips o ene gy
had no ye been ini ia ed o non-o e lapping supply egions o he indi idual plan s we e assumed.
Howe e , wi h inc easing demand, compe i ion be ween use s s a s o play a signi ican ole.
Fo example, Viana e al. (2010) no ed ha he p ocu emen egions o e lapped, which would in
p ac ice inc ease he assumed 35-km adius and hus he anspo cos s. Di e en app oaches ha e
been aken o conside compe i ion in he assessmen o supply po en ial. Ha es ing po en ial
can be alloca ed by minimizing anspo cos s (No d-La sen and Talbo 2004; Ran a 2005) o he
demand can be o alled i he supply egions o e lap (Goe nd e al. 2013; Sánchez-Ga cía e al.
2015; Ni ala e al. 2016). Fu he mo e, egional balances o supply po en ial and demand can be
gauged (Ran a 2005; Eme e al. 2011; Mase a e al. 2006; Sánchez-Ga cía e al. 2015; Ni ala e
al. 2016; Ran a e al. 2012). The egional balance es ima es a e e y ad an ageous in indica ing
he ho spo s o supply and demand (Mase a e al. 2006).
Ni ala e al. (2016) assessed he egional balance o he echnical po en ial and he demand
acco ding o he Finnish na ional a ge o 2020. Wha se s he me hod p esen ed in hei pape
apa om he o he s udies is he le el o de ails: in p ac ice all plan s using o es chips a e
included in he analysis. Howe e , also se e al weaknesses can be iden i ied. The po en ials we e
es ima ed a egional o municipali y le el and u he dis ibu ed e enly on o es land a ailable
o wood supply (FAWS). The small- ee po en ial was based on a se o na ional o es in en o y
(NFI) plo s o which hinning was es ima ed o be possible. The downside o his app oach was
ha he da a desc ibed g owing s ock a he ime o he in en o y, as no g ow h was p edic ed o
he ees. The a ge ed demand was i s dis ibu ed o indi idual acili ies and hen o acili ies’
supply egions, whose sizes we e p opo ional o demand. The balances we e hen ob ained by
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
sub ac ing he supply egions om he polygons con aining he po en ial da a. Finally, supply
egions con aining nega i e alues we e “ illed”; ha is, he egions we e ex ended as long as he e
we e no nega i e alues. E en hough he assessmen e ealed ho spo s in 2020, he ex ension o
supply egions blu ed hem o some ex en . Mo eo e , he ec o -based me hod u ned ou o be
compu a ionally a he hea y and he e o e calls o imp o emen .
The objec i es o his s udy we e 1) o assess egional balances o o es chips in 2015
and wi h espec o demand scena ios o 2030 as an impac analysis o he Na ional Ene gy and
Clima e S a egy, and 2) o imp o e he me hodology de eloped by Ni ala e al. (2016). The
balances o 2030 we e calcula ed acco ding o h ee demand scena ios. Fu he mo e, sensi i i y
analyses we e pe o med o assess he e ec s o some o he assump ions made. The imp o emen s
o he me hodology we e as ollows: a) he e en spa ial dis ibu ion o po en ial was changed o
a biomass weigh ed dis ibu ion, b) he es ima ion me hod o small- ee po en ial was de eloped,
c) he ex ension o nega i e supply egions was abandoned, and d) he app oach was changed o
a as e -based one.
2 Ma e ial and me hods
2.1 Technical ha es ing po en ial
In his s udy, he echnical ha es ing po en ial o o es chips was de ined as he maximum po en ial
p ocu emen olume o chips a ailable om he Finnish o es s based on he p e ailing guidelines
o ha es ing o ene gy wood (Kois inen e al. 2016). Technical po en ial was es ima ed o h ee
asso men s:
• Small-sized ees om ea ly hinnings (he ea e , small ees)
• C own biomass (i.e. b anches and needles) and s emwood loss (i.e. de ec i e wood, unde -
sized ops, and small-sized s ems) om inal ellings (he ea e , logging esidues)
• Wood om s umps and oo s om inal ellings (he ea e , s umps).
Wi hin each asso men , he esul s we e classi ied acco ding o ee species g oup as ollows:
• Sco s pine (Pinus syl es is L.)
• No way sp uce (Picea abies [L.] H. Ka s .)
• B oadlea ed species.
The po en ials we e i s calcula ed o i een NUTS 3 based Finnish egions po ayed
in Fig. 1 and la e dis ibu ed on a as e g id a 1 km × 1 km esolu ion as desc ibed below. The
esul s a e p esen ed as a e age annual po en ials in d y onnes.
To begin wi h he es ima ion o he egion-le el po en ials, echnical ha es ing po en-
ials on FAWS we e es ima ed using he sample plo s o he ele en h na ional o es in en o y
(NFI11) measu ed in he yea s 2009–2013. Fi s , a la ge numbe o sound and sus ainable
managemen schedules o i e consecu i e en-yea pe iods we e simula ed o each sample
plo using a la ge-scale Finnish o es planning sys em known as MELA (Sii onen e al. 1996;
Reds en e al. 2013). MELA simula ions consis ed o na u al p ocesses and human ac ions.
The ing ow h, g ow h, and mo ali y o ees we e p edic ed based on a se o dis ance-inde-
penden ee-le el s a is ical models (Hynynen e al. 2002) included in MELA and he simula-
ion o he s and (sample plo )-le el managemen ac ions was based on he cu en Finnish
sil icul u al guidelines (Äijälä e al. 2014) and he guidelines o ha es ing o ene gy wood
(Kois inen e al. 2016).
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
Simula ed managemen ac ions o he small- ee ac ion consis ed o hinnings ha ul illed
he ollowing s and c i e ia:
• mean diame e a b eas heigh ≥ 8 cm
• numbe o s ems ≥ 1500 ha–1
• mean heigh < 10.5 m (in Lapland) o mean heigh < 12.5 m (elsewhe e).
Ha es ing o ene gy wood was simula ed as delimbed (i.e. including he s em only) in
sp uce-domina ed s ands and pea lands and as whole ees (i.e. including s em and b anches)
elsewhe e. When ha es ed as whole ees, a o al o 30% o he o iginal c own biomass was le
onsi e (Kois inen e al. 2016). Ene gy wood hinnings could be in eg a ed wi h oundwood logging
o ca ied ou independen ly.
Second, he echnical ene gy wood po en ial o small ees (ST) was ope a ionalized in
MELA by maximizing he emo al o hinnings in he i s pe iod. In his way, we we e able o
pick ou all small ee ellings simula ed in he i s pe iod despi e, o example, he p o i abili y o
he ope a ion. Howe e , a single logging e en was ejec ed i he ene gy wood emo al was lowe
han 25 m³ ha–1 o he indus ial oundwood emo al o pine, sp uce, o bi ch exceeded 45 m³ ha–1.
The pu pose o he la e cons ain was o lea e ou s ands a ge ed by o es indus ies. Howe e ,
Fig. 1. The egional di ision in he s udy and he selec ed
bio e ine y loca ions. Fo he egion names, see Table 3.
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
he ST calcula ed in his way con ained some amoun o imbe sui able o indus ial oundwood.
The e o e, we also calcula ed a small ee es ima e (ST10.5) ha consis ed only o he ees wi h
diame e s below 10.5 cm a b eas heigh .
Thi d, he po en ials o logging esidues and s umps we e calcula ed based on he inal
ellings. Final ellings consis ed o clea cu ing, seed ee cu ing, and shel e -wood cu ing, bu
only he clea -cu ing a eas we e u ilized o ene gy wood ha es ing. As bo h logging esidues and
s umps a e byp oduc s o oundwood emo als, he echnical po en ials o chips ha e o be linked
wi h emo als o indus ial oundwood. Fu u e po en ials we e assumed o ma e ialize when he
indus ial oundwood ellings ollowed he le el o maximum sus ainable emo als.
The maximum sus ainable emo als we e calcula ed in he linea p og amming module
o MELA sys em such ha he ne p esen alue (NPV) calcula ed wi h a 4% discoun a e was
maximized (Eq. 1) subjec o non-declining pe iodic indus ial oundwood (Eq. 2) and ene gy
wood (Eq. 3) emo als and ne incomes (Eq. 4), and subjec o he saw log emo al emaining a
leas a he le el o he i s pe iod (Eq. 5). Fo each s and (calcula ion uni ) he op imisa ion chose
he schedule ha maximized he o al NPV. The e we e no cons ain s conce ning ee species
selec ion, cu ing me hods, age classes, o he g ow h/d ain a io in o de o e icien ly u ilize he
dynamics o o es s uc u e. The elling beha iou o he o es owne s was no aken in o accoun
ei he . Fo he p esen si ua ion in 2015, he emo al o indus ial oundwood was assumed o be
he same as he a e age le el in 2009–2013.
Sus ainabili y cons ain s we e o 50 yea s ( i e 10-yea pe iods), bu he NPV calcula ions
we e ca ied ou beyond his pe iod by con inuing each schedule j wi hou spli ing un il he man-
agemen uni was egene a ed o 150 yea s was eached whiche e was sho e .
max
(( ))()()
NPVpcwx SEV
qq
ij
qij
q
kT i
T
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110 10 5
11
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subjec o
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ximj h
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ij
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whe e xij is he a ea o managemen uni i (i = 1,…,m) managed acco ding o managemen sched-
ule j (j = 1,…h); wij
q is he amoun o imbe o ene gy wood asso men q (q = 1,…,k) p oduced i
managemen schedule j is employed o he a ea o calcula ion uni i a pe iod ( = 1,…,T); wij
w is
he amoun o indus ial oundwood (saw imbe and pulpwood) ha es ed i managemen sched-
ule j is employed o he a ea o calcula ion uni i a pe iod ; wij
ew is he amoun o ene gy wood
ha es ed i managemen schedule j is employed o he calcula ion uni i a pe iod ; wij
s is he
amoun o saw imbe ha es ed i managemen schedule j is employed o he a ea o calcula ion
6
Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
uni i a pe iod ; pq, cq a e oundwood (as oad-side) and ene gy wood (a mill ya d) p ices and
co esponding cos s o p ocu emen by asso men s q, (q = 1,…,k); SEVi is he es ima e o he soil
expec a ion alue o managemen uni i calcula ed acco ding o he Faus mann o mula; and ai is
he a ea o managemen uni i.
Fou h, he echnical ha es ing po en ials we e de i ed by e en ion o 30% o he logging
esidues onsi e (Kois inen e al. 2016) and espec i ely by e en ion o 16–18% o s ump biomass
(Muinonen e al. 2013; An ila e al. 2013). The logging esidue po en ial assuming maximum
sus ainable emo als is la e e e ed o as ResMax and he co esponding s ump po en ial as
S uMax. The po en ials assuming he ealized ha es ing le el a e e e ed o as ResBAU and
S uBAU, espec i ely.
Subsequen ly, he egion-le el po en ials we e sp ead on a as e g id a 1 km × 1 km
esolu ion. Only g id cells on FAWS we e conside ed in his ope a ion. In his s udy, FAWS was
de ined as ollows: Fi s , o es land was ex ac ed om he Finnish Mul i-Sou ce Na ional Fo es
In en o y (MS-NFI) 2013 da a (Mäkisa a e al. 2016). Second, es ic ed a eas we e excluded om
o es land. The es ic ed a eas consis ed o na ionally p o ec ed a eas (e.g. na u e pa ks, na ional
pa ks, p o ec ion p og amme a eas) and a eas p o ec ed by he S a e Fo es En e p ise. In addi ion,
some a eas in no he nmos Lapland es ic ed by sepa a e ag eemen s be ween he S a e Fo es
En e p ise and s akeholde s we e le ou om he inal da a. Fu he mo e, o small ees, FAWS
was u he cons ained by he s and c i e ia p esen ed abo e o ep esen simila s and condi ions
o small- ee ha es ing as in MELA.
Nex , he egion-le el po en ials we e dis ibu ed o he g id cells by weigh ing wi h MS-NFI
biomasses:
pB
B
P
iscsp
icsp
icsp
i
nsc sp,,
,,
,,
,
()
1
6
whe e
pi,sc,sp = po en ial in g id cell i, o scena io sc and species sp
sc
∈
{ST, ST10.5, ResBAU, ResMax, S uBAU, S uMax}
sp
∈
{pine, sp uce, b oadlea ed}
Bi,c,sp = biomass in g id cell i, o componen c and species sp
c
∈
{s em and ba k | sc
∈
{ST, ST10.5}, li ing b anches| sc
∈
{ResBAU, ResMax}, s ump | sc
∈
{S uBAU, S uMax}}
n = numbe o g id cells wi hin he egion
Psc,sp = egion-le el po en ial o scena io sc and species sp
ST = echnical po en ial o small ees
ST10.5 = echnical po en ial po en ial o small ees wi h diame e s below 10.5 cm a b eas heigh
ResBAU = esidue po en ial co esponding o ealized ha es ing le el
S uBAU = s ump po en ial co esponding o ealized ha es ing le el
ResMax = esidue po en ial co esponding o maximum sus ainable emo als
S uMax = s ump po en ial co esponding o maximum sus ainable emo als.
2.2 Demand
Demand o o es chips in he hea and powe sec o and o liquid bio uel p oduc ion was based
on he ac ual consump ion in 2015 and on h ee u u e scena ios o consump ion in 2030 (Fig. 2).
In 2015, a o al o 7.3 Mm3 o o es chips, co esponding o 3.1 million d y onnes (M ), was used
in hea ing and CHP plan s in Finland (O icial S a is ics o Finland 2016). O his, 52% o igina ed
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
om small ees, 37% om logging esidues, and 11% om s umps. In p ac ice, he small- ee
ac ion included an unknown amoun o pulpwood.
The scena ios o 2030 we e ob ained om wo di e en sou ces. The i s one was he
impac assessmen o he Ene gy and Clima e S a egy (Koljonen e al. 2017). In he assess-
men , he de elopmen o he Finnish ene gy sys em ollowing wo scena ios was modelled using
he TIMES-VTT in eg a ed ene gy sys em model (Koljonen and Leh ilä 2012), which is based
on he IEA-ETSAP TIMES ene gy sys em modelling amewo k and he global ETSAP-TIAM
model (Loulou and Lab ie 2008; Loulou e al. 2016). In he basic scena io, WEM (Wi h Exis ing
Measu es), he na ional a ge s o ene gy and clima e policy in 2020 will be me , bu he policies
o a ge s will no be igh ened a e his (Koljonen e al. 2017). Ins ead, in he so-called policy
scena io WAM (Wi h Addi ional Measu es), he ene gy and clima e policies and a ge s a e s ic e
a e 2020 o ul il bo h p oposed EU 2030 a ge s and addi ional na ional policy a ge s o 2030.
The esul s om TIMES-VTT modelling speci y he consump ion o o es chips a he na ional
le el in hea and powe p oduc ion and in bio uel p oduc ion and he amoun o chips impo ed.
In he scena io WEM, hese alues we e 4.7, 0.5, and 0.4 M , and in he WAM scena io hey we e
4.3, 1.5, and 0.5 M , espec i ely.
The second sou ce o he 2030 es ima es was he Minis y o Economic A ai s and Employ-
men , which p o ided an ea lie scena io e sion in Sep embe 2016 ( e e ed o he ea e as TEM).
This scena io was added as an al e na i e, because i assumed no use o o es chips in bio uel
p oduc ion and 100% domes ic eeds ock. The o al consump ion o chips in hea and CHP plan s
was 5.7 M in his scena io.
Nex , he na ional o als we e di ided in o indi idual hea plan s, CHP plan s, and biomass-
o-liquid plan s (he ea e e e ed o as bio e ine ies). The ollowing p ocedu e was applied o
he hea and CHP plan s. Fo he scena io WEM, he plan -speci ic o es chip demands we e
de e mined by assuming i s ha he gi en na ional a ge will be me and hen dis ibu ing he
addi ional o es chip supply o he plan s ha ing he echnological po en ial o inc ease he sha e
o o es chips. Mos o he addi ional po en ial was alloca ed o la ge-scale plan s in which o es
chips can subs i u e o pea up o a ce ain limi wi hou any majo ope a ional isks.
Fig. 2. The consump ion o o es chips in hea and CHP plan s ealized in 2015 and in he demand scena ios o 2030
assessed in his s udy.
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
The analysis was based on he hea and powe plan da abases o Na u al Resou ces Ins i-
u e Finland (Luke) and VTT Technical Resea ch Cen e o Finland L d (VTT). Luke’s da abase
consis ed o 1065 demand poin s o wood uels wi h loca ion and consump ion da a. O hese, 669
had used o es chips in 2015. VTT’s da abase, on he o he hand, con ained in o ma ion on mo e
han 1000 plan s (e.g. plan ype, capaci y, commissioning yea , annual p oduc ion, and uel use
s a is ics). The emaining li e imes o he plan s o he unce ain u u e plan in es men s we e no
conside ed in his s udy. The plan s cu en ly unde commissioning in Naan ali and Lah i (Kymijä i
III) and Helen L d’s planned “Vuosaa i biohea ing plan ” we e, howe e , included in he analysis.
This s udy hus assumed ha he u u e plan s will ha e demands o o es chips simila o hose
o he plan s hey will eplace. The annual u iliza ion hou s o o es chips a he plan s we e hen
checked based on he plan -speci ic da a and adjus men s o he demands we e made i necessa y.
Fo he scena ios WAM and TEM, he each plan ’s demand o o es chips was de i ed om
he esul s o he scena io WEM. Fi s , he plan s we e g ouped in o ou main ypes: 1) municipal
CHP, 2) indus ial CHP, 3) municipal hea plan , and 4) indus ial hea plan . Wi hin a g oup, he
changes in he use o o es chips we e assumed o be simila , bu be ween he g oups he changes
could di e ge due o he di e en na u es o he plan s and hei ope a ions. Second, he changes
in he use o o es chips in each g oup we e adjus ed o mee he a ge s o he scena ios WEM
and TEM. Fo he scena io WAM (which had a lowe na ional a ge in he hea and powe sec o
han WEM), he use o biomass was assumed o dec ease mos ly in indus ial CHPs, o example.
This was due o he ac ha he use o o es chips was assumed o inc ease qui e signi ican ly in
indus ial CHP plan s in he scena io WEM compa ed o he cu en use. Fo he scena io TEM
(which had a highe na ional a ge han WEM), he municipal CHP plan s we e deemed o ha e
he mos po en ial o u he inc ease he use o o es chips compa ed o WEM. The inc ease
did no ye lead o un ealis ic sha es o o es biomass in any o he plan s. The use o impo ed
o es chips was assumed o be concen a ed in he la ge plan s in he coas al a ea and in eas e n
Finland. Fu he mo e, he sha es o he o es chip asso men s we e assumed o emain cons an
o indi idual plan s. Fo he new ins alla ions, he sha es we e es ima ed ei he based on a p io i
in o ma ion o as an a e age o exis ing plan s o he same size.
A he momen , he e a e nei he exis ing plan s p oducing liquid anspo bio uels om
o es chips no in es men decisions o es ablish such plan s in Finland. Fo his eason, a o al
o nine loca ions whe e such a bio e ine y could ope a e we e holis ically de e mined based on
in as uc u e and o es esou ces (Fig. 1). In his s udy, he demand o domes ic o es chips in
he scena io WEM was dis ibu ed equally among he plan s, esul ing in he consump ion o 0.06
M by each plan . In he scena io WAM, he emphasis o he s udy was on assessing how one la ge
demand poin would a ec he egional balance. The e o e he consump ion o all o he plan s
excep one was kep cons an and he emaining demand o 1.02 M was alloca ed o Kemi, whe e
Kaidi, a Chinese company, is planning o build a bio e ine y ha will use o es chips. Acco ding
o he company he es ima ed o al wood demand o he plan would be 2.8 mill. m3 (c. 1.2 M )
(Kaidi 2018). Howe e , due o he loca ion nex o he Swedish bo de pa o he demand would
p obably be ul illed wi h impo ed ene gywood as well as wi h sawmill chips. Finally, i was
p esumed ha he eeds ock o he bio e ine ies would consis o small ees and logging esidues
wi h equal sha es.
Finally he demand o o es chips was made spa ially explici by de ining a p ocu emen
egion o each plan and by dis ibu ing he plan ’s demand in i (Ni ala e al. 2016). Fo his
pu pose, he plan s we e ca ego ized in o i e classes based on hei demand (Table 1). Fo each
demand class he maximum anspo dis ance was de e mined using he esul s o an ea lie
su ey (Ku ki e al. 2012). Concen ic supply ci cles we e de ined o he plan s so ha he highe
he demand, he highe he numbe o ci cles and he la ge he supply adius. Assuming ha he
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
acili ies a e ying o minimize anspo cos s, he in ensi y o demand dec eased wi h inc eas-
ing supply adius. Fo his, a sha e o 1/n, whe e n is he numbe o concen ic ci cles, o he o al
demand o a plan was alloca ed o each supply egion. A supply egion is he supply ci cle, when
he supply adius is 30 km, and he ing be ween consecu i e supply ci cles, when he adius is
highe han 30 km. Wi hin each supply egion he demand was u he dis ibu ed o he g id cells
by weigh ing wi h MS-NFI biomasses as he egion-le el po en ials (Eq. 6).
2.3 Balance
The o es chip balance o each asso men was calcula ed as he emainde o he abo e-desc ibed
spa ially-explici po en ial supply and demand laye s. Unlike in Ni ala e al. (2016), nega i e
balance alues we e also accep ed. In addi ion o he balance calcula ions o he ac ual si ua ion
in 2015 and he h ee scena ios (TEM, WEM, and WAM), sensi i i y analyses we e pe o med
o assess he e ec o some assump ions made (Table 2). The e ec o also including pulpwood-
Table 1. Assumed supply adius o a plan
as a unc ion o demand (Ku ki e al. 2012).
Demand (k ) Supply adius (km)
≤ 1.3 30
≤ 4.2 60
≤ 33.6 100
≤ 73.5 150
> 73.5 200
Table 2. The assump ions o he balance scena ios. Scena ios: “2015” – Ac ual demand o o es chips in 2015; “TEM”
– es ima e o demand in 2030 om he Minis y o Economic A ai s and Employmen ; “WEM” - es ima e o demand
in 2030 “Wi h Exis ing Measu es” om an impac analysis o he Finnish ene gy and clima e s a egy; “WAM” – es-
ima e o demand in 2030 “Wi h Addi ional Measu es” om he impac analysis; “WAM+” – demand as in “WAM”,
bu po en ial o small ees highe ; “WAM_Res100” – demand as in “WAM”, bu only esidues used in bio e ining;
“WAM_ST100” – demand as in “WAM”, bu only small ees used in bio e ining; “WAM_NS” – demand o s umps as
in “WAM”, bu only sp uce s umps accep ed. Po en ials: “ST” – echnical po en ial o small ees; “ST10.5” – echnical
po en ial o small ees wi h diame e s below 10.5 cm a b eas heigh ; “ResBAU” – esidue po en ial co esponding o
ealized ha es ing le el; “S uBAU” – s ump po en ial co esponding o ealized ha es ing le el; “ResMax” - esidue
po en ial co esponding o maximum sus ainable emo als; “S uMax” - s ump po en ial co esponding o maximum
sus ainable emo als.
Scena io Biomass asso men (s) conside ed Po en ial Sha es o small ees and esidues
o bio e ine y eeds ock
2015 all ST10.5; ResBAU; S uBAU N/A
TEM all ST10.5; ResMax; S uMax N/A
WEM all ST10.5; ResMax; S uMax 50%/50%
WAM all ST10.5; ResMax; S uMax 50%/50%
WAM+ small ees ST 50%/50%
WAM_Res100 small ees, logging esidues ST10.5; ResMax 0%/100%
WAM_ST100 small ees, logging esidues ST10.5; ResMax 100%/0%
WAM_NS s umps S uMax (sp uce only) N/A
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Table 6. Fo es chip balance o s umps in he basic and sensi i i y scena ios by egion (1000 ). “2015” – Ac ual
demand o o es chips in 2015; “TEM” – es ima e o demand in 2030 om he Minis y o Economic A ai s and
Employmen ; “WEM” - es ima e o demand in 2030 “Wi h Exis ing Measu es” om an impac analysis o he Finn-
ish ene gy and clima e s a egy; “WAM” – es ima e o demand in 2030 “Wi h Addi ional Measu es” om he impac
analysis; “WAM_NS” – demand o s umps as in “WAM”, bu only sp uce s umps accep ed.
Region n Region 2015 TEM WEM WAM WAM_NS
1 Åland 17 22 22 23 10
2 Uusimaa 120 157 176 179 126
3 Lounais-Suomi 191 291 314 319 185
4 Häme 209 235 248 252 197
5 Kaakkois-Suomi 200 248 257 262 163
6 Pi kanmaa 181 265 277 280 191
7 E elä-Sa o 286 395 404 411 265
8 Os obo hnia 47 111 117 119 68
9 Sou h and Cen al Os obo hnia 122 210 218 223 83
10 Cen al Finland 265 387 398 407 250
11 Pohjois-Sa o 271 403 412 414 292
12 No h Ka elia 218 345 350 352 178
13 Kainuu 159 252 256 255 80
14 No h Os obo hnia 207 345 351 355 112
15 Lapland 159 358 360 361 92
To al 2653 4023 4160 4213 2291
Fig. 8. Fo es chip balance o s umps in 2015 and acco ding o he scena io WAM. The maps o
he scena ios TEM and WEM do no no iceably di e om he one o he scena io WAM and
a e, hus, no shown.
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Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
4 Discussion
In he scena ios o 2030, he le el o emo al o indus ial oundwood was assumed o be a he
maximum sus ainable le el (78 Mm3 a–1). I he emo al s ays a a lowe le el, he po en ial o
logging esidues and s umps will also be lowe . Fu he mo e, echnical po en ials should no be
aken as a ailabili ies, because e en ually he ma ke s will de e mine he supplied amoun s, which
essen ially depend on he o es owne s’ willingness o sell and ene gy p oduce s’ capabili y o
pay o wood. A ecen su ey looked a he a i udes o o es owne s. Acco ding o Rämö e al.
(2016), 50% o he o es owne s had sold ene gy wood, while a o al o 8% would no sell i unde
any condi ion. P ice was seen as he mos signi ican ac o explaining willingness o sell. On he
demand side, he capabili y o ene gy p oduce s o pay o wood basically depends on he p ices
o o es chips and compe ing uels a he plan ga e a e axes and incen i es. Essen ially, he
echnical po en ials indica e only he uppe limi o supply om domes ic o es s.
In he demand analysis o he hea ing and CHP plan s, he side s eams om he o es
indus y (sawdus , ba k, e c.) we e included in he analysis and no majo changes in he a ail-
abili y o hese s eams we e assumed in he 2030 scena ios. In addi ion, he emaining li e imes
o he plan s and unce ain u u e plan in es men s we e mos ly no conside ed in his s udy.
I was assumed ha he u u e plan s will ha e o es chip demands compa able o he plan s
hey will eplace. This was seen jus i ied, because e en hough he new mul i- uel boile s would
almos ce ainly be designed o use highe sha es o woody biomass uels han he exis ing ones,
he exis ing CHP boile s could mo e and mo e o en be eplaced by boile s ha will p oduce only
hea . The eplacemen o a CHP plan wi h a hea ing plan would nega e he addi ional biomass
demand because hea ing plan s will equi e less uel o mee he same hea demand. Due o he
low elec ici y p ices in he No dic elec ici y ma ke , he end o CHP plan s being eplaced wi h
hea ing plan s can al eady be seen in Finland.
I he demand o small ees ises o he le el an icipa ed in his s udy, he de ici will be
la gely eplaced by pulpwood and/o impo ed wood. In p ac ise his happens al eady now, because
pa o he consump ion o small ees epo ed by he plan s in ac ul ils pulpwood dimensions.
In addi ion, some ansi ion be ween he asso men s can be expec ed wi hin he echnical limi s
o he boile s, because he p esumed u u e sha es o o es chip asso men s we e chie ly based
on he his o ical sha es.
The assump ion abou p ocu emen a eas is based on an ea lie su ey (Ku ki e al. 2012),
and based on p ac ical expe iences i e lec s he p ocu emen o o es chips wi h cu en logis ical
al e na i es well. I new logis ical se ups (e.g. la ge-scale u iliza ion o e minals) eme ge, hey
should be aken in o accoun in u u e assessmen s.
Finally, he e a e signi ican unce ain ies ega ding bio e ine ies: So a , no in es men
decisions ha e been made conce ning bio e ine ies using o es chips. The e o e, hei loca ions,
numbe , demand o o es chips, and sha es o asso men s can only be assumed.
5 Conclusions
In his s udy a GIS-based me hod o assess he egional su iciency o o es chips was implemen ed.
When adequa e da a a e a ailable, a ious scena ios o u u e consump ion can be compa ed and
egional ho spo s o supply and demand can be de ec ed. The imp o emen s made in he me h-
odology compa ed wi h Ni ala e al. (2016) enable he p o ision o mo e accu a e and isually
appealing esul s as well as as e compu a ion. None heless, he me hod is based on se e al s a ic
assump ions abou he u u e emo al le el o indus ial oundwood, demand o o es chips,
18
Sil a Fennica ol. 52 no. 2 a icle id 9902 · An ila e al. · Regional balance o o es chip supply and demand…
p ocu emen a eas, and ope a ing en i onmen in gene al. This weakness can be pa ly o e come
by assessing a numbe o di e en scena ios and ca ying ou sensi i i y analyses.
Acco ding o he esul s, he egional compe i ion si ua ion o di e en o es chip asso -
men s in 2030 seems o be qui e simila ega dless o he scena io. A su plus po en ial o small ees
emains in eas e n and no he n Finland a e deduc ing p esumed consump ion. Mo eo e , due o
he ema kable de ici o small ees in sou he n Finland, he e migh be p essu e owa ds he use
o mo e pulpwood-sized and/o impo ed wood in ene gy p oduc ion. I he emo al o indus ial
oundwood ises a he maximum sus ainable le el, he e will be su plus po en ial o logging esi-
dues and s umps in almos he whole coun y, bu i will be ocused mo e in cen al–eas e n Finland.
The esul s also show ha , in pa icula , la ge new plan s consuming subs an ial amoun s
o o es chips could ha e a signi ican e ec on he egional su iciency o o es chips. Fo his
eason, his kind o balance assessmen is o u mos impo ance o any planned la ge bio e ine y,
hea plan , o CHP plan . Wi h he aid o hese esul s, i is s aigh o wa d o es ima e he echnical
and “ ee” po en ial as a unc ion o anspo dis ance o any loca ion. The nex , logical s ep o a
easibili y s udy would en ail a compa ison o supply chains and compila ion o cos -supply cu es.
Rega ding u u e de elopmen , he e is a need o ind new logis ical solu ions o supply o es
chips. As much as one hi d o he small ee po en ial is loca ed on pea lands, whe e ha es ing
will be mo e and mo e di icul wi h sho ening o he os season. Fu he mo e, as he demand
will mos ly g ow a om he ha es ing po en ial, long-dis ance anspo o ene gy wood also
calls o cos -e ec i e solu ions.
Acknowledgemen s
This wo k was inancially suppo ed by he Academy o Finland unde he Clima e-Neu al and
Resou ce-Sca ce Finland – S a egic Resea ch P og amme in 2015–2020 (P ojec FORBIO, No.
14970) and he Go e nmen ’s analysis, assessmen , and esea ch ac i i ies (P ojec KEIJU). D
Juha Lai ila helped de ine he calcula ion pa ame e s and D A i Lau en o e ed aluable commen s
on he manusc ip . The au ho s wish o hank he abo e-men ioned.
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