No solar signal in temperature proxies from Antarctica

A mosphe ic and Clima e Sciences, 2015, 5, 418-425 Published Online Oc obe 2015 in SciRes. h p://www.sci p.o g/jou nal/acs h p://dx.doi.o g/10.4236/acs.2015.54033 How o ci e his pape : Ogu so , M., Lindholm, M., Jalkanen, R. and Ve e enenko, S. (2015) No Sola Signal in Tempe a u e P oxies om An a c ica. A mosphe ic and Clima e Sciences, 5, 418-425. h p://dx.doi.o g/10.4236/acs.2015.54033 No Sola Signal in Tempe a u e P oxies om An a c ica Maxim Ogu so 1,2, Ma kus Lindholm3, Ris o Jalkanen3, S e lana Ve e enenko1,4 1A.F. Io e Physico-Technical Ins i u e, S . Pe e sbu g, Russia 2Cen al As onomical Obse a o y a Pulko o, Pulko o, Russia 3Na u al Resou ces Ins i u e Finland (Luke), Ro aniemi, Finla 4S . Pe e sbu g S a e Uni e si y, S . Pe e sbu g, Russia Email: maxim.ogu so @mail.io e. u Recei ed 17 July 2015; accep ed 6 Oc obe 2015; published 9 Oc obe 2015 Copy igh © 2015 by au ho s and Scien i ic Resea ch Publishing Inc. This wo k is licensed unde he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion In e na ional License (CC BY). h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/ Abs ac We analyzed a numbe o An a c ic clima ic p oxies including: 1) an annual p oxy co e ing he ime in e al 1800-2003, 2) ou low- esolu ion ( ens o hund eds o yea s) ice co e eco ds co - e ing he las 242,000 yea s. The main goal o he wo k was o sea ch o aces o sola in luence on An a c ic clima e. Bo h Fou ie and wa ele app oaches we e used in he s a is ical analyses. We ound no e iden inge p in s o sola cycles o Schwabe (ca 11 yea s), Hale (ca 22 yea s), Gleissbe g (cen u y-scale) o Halls a (ca 2000 yea s). Ins ead a s ong a ia ion wi h pe iod ca 9800 - 11,600 yea s is p esen in he long empe a u e p oxies du ing he las 242,000 yea s. I was shown ha his a ia ion likely was he esul o a ying CO2 concen a ion in he a mosphe e, al hough some sola in luence canno be ully excluded. No ea u es o a quasi 10,000 yea a ia- ion we e ound in he G eenland δ18O eco d. The esul s show ha sola -clima ic ela ionship in An a c ica is weake han in he high-la i ude a eas o he No he n Hemisphe e. Keywo ds Sola Ac i i y, Paleoclima iolgy 1. In oduc ion The endu ing ques ion o he exis ence o a ela ionship be ween sola ac i i y and e es ial clima e and i s p obable physical mechanism is mo e impo an han e e in sola - e es ial physics. Many mode n s udies ha e ocused on he e ec o sola ac i i y on clima e—see e.g. De Jage [1], G ay e al. [2] (2010), Lockwood [3], Douglass and Knox [4], Adolphi e al. [23]. Jiang e al. [5] ound appa en co ela ion be ween changes in sea M. Ogu so e al. 419 su ace empe a u e in he No h A lan ic and a ia ions in he Sun’s ac i i y du ing he las 4000 yea s o e ime scales om hund eds o yea s down o pe iods o 10 - 20 yea s. Plausible e idence o cen u y-scale co e- la ion be ween he Sun’s ac i i y and summe empe a u es o high-la i ude egions o he No he n Hemisphe e was ob ained by Ogu so e al. [6]. Sola in luence on clima e was ound o be mo e e iden o e No he n Fennoscandia han elsewhe e [7] [8]. High la i udes a e a eas mos sui able o s udies o he sola -clima e links since: 1) pene a ion o high-ene gy sola and cosmic pa icles in o he a mosphe e is acili a ed o e his egion; 2) he egion is si ua ed a om a eas o high olcanic ac i i y, which could obscu e sola signal. The An a c- ic con inen has hese same ad an ages. Tempe a u e p oxies, econs uc ed empe a u e a ia ions in An a c- ica o e di e en ime scales ha e ecen ly been published. In he p esen wo k we analyzed hese a ailable in- di ec eco ds o An a c ic empe a u es. We a ge ed possible inge p in s o cen ennial- o-millennial scale sola cycles in he An a c ic clima e using bo h wa ele and Fou ie app oaches and co ela ion analysis. 2. Ma e ial and Me hods In his wo k we used annual econs uc ion o An a c ic mean su ace empe a u e o AD 1800-2003 based on s able iso ope eco ds om high- esolu ion ice co e eco ds [9]. The econs uc ion u ilized he ollowing da a se s: a) δ18O ice co e eco d om Law Dome (66.78˚S, 112.82˚E, ele a ion 1370 m a.s.l.) [10]; b) δ18O ice co e eco d om Siple S a ion (75.92˚S, 84.10˚W, ele a ion 1054 m a.s.l.) [11]; c) δ18O ice co e eco d om D onning Maud Land (~75˚S, 0˚E, ele a ion 2900 m a.s.l.) [12]; d) δ18O ice co e eco d US ITASE 2000-1 (79.38˚S, 111.23˚W, ele a ion 1791 m a.s.l.) [13]; e) δD ice co e eco d US ITASE 2000-5 (77.68˚S, 123.99˚W, ele a ion 1828 m a.s.l.) [13]. Deu e ium and δ18O con en o An a c ic snow is linea ly ela ed o he empe a u e o p ecipi a ion si e be- cause o ac iona ion p ocesses [14]. The e o e all he paleo eco ds may be conside ed as a he eliable em- pe a u e p oxies. A gene alized An a c ic empe a u e se ies is shown in Figu e 1. We also used he long and low- esolu ion da a se s (Figu e 2): a) Deu e ium δD and CO2 da a om Vos ok ice co e (78.8˚S, 106.8˚E, ele a ion 3488 m a.s.l.), [14]-[16]; b) Deu e ium da a om EPICA Dome C (75.06˚S; 123.21˚E, ele a ion 3233 m a.s.l.) [17]; c) Es ima ion o empe a u e a Dome Fuji (77.30˚S, 37.30˚E, ele a ion 3810 m a.s.l.) [18]. The es ima ions o Kawamu a e al. [18] we e made by means o δD and δ18O da a. Ca bon dioxide is a well known g eenhouse gas e ec i ely in luencing e es ial clima e. All h ee si es (Vos ok, EPICA Dome C and Dome F) a e loca ed on he con inen al pa o An a c ica, mo e han 1000 km away om he ocean. The abo e desc ibed paleoiso ope eco ds span ime in e als up o 800,000 yea s be o e p esen . Thei ime esolu ion eaches only ew hund eds o yea s o e en me ely 35 - 60 yea s du ing some ime in e als [19]. This is enough o a sea ch o ime a ia ions wi h pe iods o a ew millennia. These ime se ies ha e success ully been used o iming glacial-in e glacial a ia ions [20] as well as de ec ing clima ic pe iodici ies connec ed wi h as onomical cycles—changes in eccen ici y (100,000 yea s), obliqui y (41,000 yea s), and p ecession (19,000 - 23,000 yea s) [21]. We in e pola ed all ou ime se ies by 50 yea s and used ime in e al up o 242,000 BP in o de o ma ch all he da a se s. Long- e m ends—22 poin s (1100 yea s) a e ages—we e hen emo ed om he in e pola ed da a se s, since such s ong a ia ions a e plausibly caused by glacial-in e glacial and as onomic cycles. The de ailed and con inuous high- equency p o iles a e shown as unc ions o ime in Figu e 3. We used adioca bon da a a e Reime e al. [22] as a long- e m sola p oxy. This ime se ies co e s he las 50,000 yea s as shown in Figu e 4. Figu e 1. Annual An a c ic empe a u e [9]. M. Ogu so e al. 420 Figu e 2. Long An a c ic da a se s. (a) Deu e ium concen a ion mea- su ed in Vos ok co e; (b) Deu e ium concen a ion measu ed in EPICA Dome C co e; (c) Es ima ions o empe a u e a Dome Fuji co e; (d) CO2 concen a ion measu ed in Vos ok co e. All he ime se ies we e in e pola ed by 50 yea s. Thick lines—long- e m endencies (22 poin a e ages). Figu e 3. Time se ies a e emo ing long- e m ends. (a) Deu e ium measu ed in Vos ok co e; (b) Deu e ium measu ed in EPICA Dome C co e; (c) Es ima ions o empe a u e a Dome Fuji co e; (d) CO2 measu ed in Vos ok co e. M. Ogu so e al. 421 Figu e 4. Concen a ion o adioca bon in e es ial a mosphe e a e Rei- me e al. [22]. Thin line— aw da a, hick line—1100 yea a e age. 3. Resul s and Discussion Bo h Fou ie and wa ele app oaches we e applied in spec al analyses. The main sho coming o he Fou ie me hod he e is assump ion o s a iona i y o he p ocess. In case o a nons a iona y da a se (such as he bulk o clima ic se ies) he Fou ie ans o m can e alua e only he a e age powe a a gi en equency and i is im- possible o ace he a ia ion o spec al con en in ime. The main ad an age o he wa ele ans o m o e he Fou ie ans o m is ha he analyzed signal he e is decomposed no o in ini e sinusoidal ha monics bu o a numbe o o hogonal wa es o soly on ype. These wa es a e called wa ele s and hey a e well localized bo h in equency and in ime, while Fou ie ha monics a e localized only in equency. Wa ele and Fou ie spec a o he annual econs uc ion o An a c ic empe a u e du ing AD 1800-2000 [9] a e illus a ed in Figu e 5. Acco ding o Figu e 5 he only pe iodici y in empe a u e ha can be ela ed o changing sola ac i i y is he 14.3 yea a ia ion. A cen u y- ype a ia ion, which migh be a ibu ed o he sola cycle o Gleissbe g, is e y weak. Mo eo e , he e is no co ela ion be ween An a c ic empe a u e and sunspo numbe . Thus no e en he 14.3 yea pe iodici y likely has sola o igin. Wa ele and Fou ie spec a o he 242,000 yea s long An a c ic ice co e eco ds a e shown in Figu e 6 and Figu e 7. A s ong a ia ion wi h a pe iod o 8900 - 10,040 yea s is a sha ed ea u e in all analyzed ime se ies (Figu e 6 and Figu e 7). This is also e iden in Figu e 3. We call his a ia ion a quasi 10 kA pe iodici y. This pe iodic- i y esul s in co ela ion be ween highe - equency pa s o he paleo eco ds—see Table 1. The signi icance o co ela ions Pco was es ima ed s a is ically including pe mu a ion o phases o Fou ie ans o m. In all cases he maximum co ela ion coe icien (Table 1) is eached wi h ze o ime shi . Such synch ony shows ha he accu acy o da ing o he analyzed paleo eco ds is a leas in he ange o 50 yea s. A highly signi ican linea ela ionship e iden ly is a esul o he p esence o a common componen o a iabili y in all he analyzed se ies. C oss-wa ele spec a o he ou clima ic se ies show peaks a ca 10,000 yea s. In o de o cla i y whe he his 10,000 yea a ia ion is p esen in cosmic ay in ensi y we pe o med Fou ie and wa ele analysis o he 50,000 yea long adioca bon eco d a e emo ing he 1100 yea a e age (see Figu e 4). Fou ie and MHAT wa ele spec a a e shown in Figu e 8. Highly signi ican peaks a ca 10,000 yea s, 3571 yea s and 1851 yea s can be seen in he Fou ie spec um (Figu e 8(c)). Ca 2000 yea a ia ion likely is a mani es a ion o he sola Halls a cycle. I is mo e e iden du ing 32,000 - 40,000 BP—see ou dis inc de ails in MHAT wa ele spec um (Figu e 8(b)). The peak a 10,000 yea s in he Fou ie spec um is c ea ed by only one co esponding s ong luc ua ion a ca 40,000 - 50,000 yea s BP. Thus i is ha d o speak abou 10,000 yea pe iodici y in he 14C da a. Tha is why i is also di - icul o ela e pe sis en 10,000 a ia ion o sola -cosmic in luence. I is easonable o assume ha he a ia ion in CO2 concen a ion is esponsible o he co esponding empe a u e a ia ions, al hough some sola -cosmic in luence canno be ully excluded. We can no e also ha no signs o Halls a cycle (ca 2000 yea ) we e ound in he long An a c ic clima ic p oxies. In addi ion no signs o 10,000 yea a ia ion we e ound in G eenland. 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 ∆ 14 C, pe mille Yea s BP M. Ogu so e al. 422 Figu e 5. (a) Local wa ele spec um (basis o Mo le ) o An a c ic empe a u es e- cons uc ed by Schneide e al. [9]. The spec um is no malized o 0.99 con idence le el; (b) Fou ie spec um o An a c ic empe a u es. Do ed line—0.95 con idence le el. Figu e 6. Local wa ele spec a o he de ended ime se ies plo ed in Figu e 3: (a) Deu e ium om Vos ok; (b) Deu e ium om Epica dome C; (c) Tempe a u e om Dome F; (d) CO2 om Vos ok. All spec a we e no malized by a iance. M. Ogu so e al. 423 Figu e 7. Fou ie spec a o he de ended ime se ies plo ed in Figu e 3: (a) Deu e ium om Vos ok; (b) Deu e ium om Epica dome C; (c) Tempe a u e om Dome F; (d) CO2 om Vos ok. Do ed lines—con idence le el 0.99. Table 1. Co ela ions be ween he de ended da ase s. The signi icance o co ela ion is shown in b acke s. δD a Vos ok δD a Epica dome C Tempe a u e a Dome F CO2 a Vos ok δD a Vos ok 1.0 0.426 (>0.99) 0.391 (>0.99) 0.367 (>0.99) δD a Epica dome C 0.426 (>0.99) 1.0 0.421 (>0.99) 0.287 (0.99) Tempe a u e a Dome F 0.391(>0.99) 0.421 (>0.99) 1.0 0.328 (>0.99) CO2 a Vos ok 0.367 (>0.99) 0.287 (0.99) 0.328 (>0.99) 1.0 This is e idence ha his pe iodici y is no a global scale cycle bu a local ea u e o con inen al An a c ic cli- ma e. 4. Conclusion Analysis o he annual An a c ic empe a u e p oxy spanning AD 1800-2003, indica es no inge p in s o he in- luence o sola cycles o Schwabe (ca 11 yea ), Hale (ca 22 yea ) o Gleissbe g (cen u y-scale). In addi ion, he long An a c ic clima ic p oxies show no e idence o sola Halls a (ca 2000 yea ) pe iodioci y. Ins ead, a s ong a ia ion wi h a pe iod o 9800 - 11,600 yea s was ound in empe a u e p oxies ob ained om h ee con inen al An a c ic ice co es (Vos ok, Dome F, Epica Dome C). The a ia ion was pe sis en du ing he las 240,000 yea s. The same pe iodici y was also p esen in CO2 concen a ion om he Vos ok ice co e. All ou p oxies co ela e signi ican ly wi h each o he and hei c oss-wa ele spec a show concen a ion o a iance a ca 10,000 yea s. We conclude ha a long- e m a ia ion wi h a pe iod close o 10,000 yea s is a common mode o con inen al An a c ic clima e a iabili y. Analysis o adioca bon eco d, co e ing he las 50,000 yea s, showed ha his M. Ogu so e al. 424 Figu e 8. (a) High- equency pa o he adioca bon eco d o Reime e al. [22]; (b) I s local wa ele spec um (MHAT basis) no malized by a iance; (c) I s Fou ie spec um. Do ed line is con idence le el 0.99. ime se ies has a iabili y in Halls a (ca 2000 yea ) equency band and a s ong ca 10,000 yea luc ua ion in 40,000 - 50,000 BP. Thus, some in luence o sola -cosmic ac o s on he 10,000 a ia ion o con inen al An a c- ic clima e canno be ully excluded. Howe e , aking in o conside a ion ha he concen a ion o ca bon dioxide in Vos ok co e has e iden 10,000 yea cyclici y which co ela es wi h o he clima ic se ies, i is easonable o assume ha he a ia ion in a mosphe ic CO2 concen a ion is he cause o clima ic 10,000 yea pe iodici y. In any case, ac ual o igins o he he e e ealed 10,000 yea clima ic a ia ion need u he p o ound in es iga ion. The p esen analysis indica es ha sola ac i i y p obably in luences he An a c ic clima e less han he high-la- i ude egions o he No he n Hemisphe e. This u he es i ies ha a po en ial sola -clima ic link ac ually has a s ong spa ial a iabili y. Fu he s udies a e necessa y o mo e decisi e conclusions. Fi s o all, we need mo e high- esolu ion p oxies o An a c ic clima e in o de o analyze spa ial dis ibu ion o sola -clima e link o e he An a c ic con inen . Upg ading old and building new long ( ens o housands o yea s) p oxies o sola ac i i y a e also c ucial asks wi h espec o u u e s udies. Acknowledgemen s M. G. Ogu so exp esses his hanks o he exchange p og am be ween he Russian and Finnish Academies (p ojec No. 16), o he p og am o he P esidium o RAS No. 22, and o RFBR g an s 13-02-00277, 13-02- 00783 o inancial suppo . Re e ences [1] De Jage , C. (2005) Sola Fo cing o Clima e: Sola Va iabili y. Space Science Re iews, 120, 197-241. h p://dx.doi.o g/10.1007/s11214-005-7046-5 [2] G ay, L.J., Bee , J., Gelle , M., Haigh, J.D., Lockwood, M., Ma hes, K., Cubasch, U., Flei mann, D., Ha ison, G., M. Ogu so e al. 425 Hood, L., Lu e bache , J., Meehl, G.A., Shindell, D., an Geel, B. and Whi e, W. (2010) Sola In luences on Clima e. 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