Potential trade-offs between nature-based tourism and forestry, a case study in Northern Finland

Fo es s 2011, 2, 894-912; doi:10.3390/ 2040894 o es s ISSN 1999-4907 www.mdpi.com/jou nal/ o es s A icle Po en ial T ade-O s Be ween Na u e-Based Tou ism and Fo es y, a Case S udy in No he n Finland Anssi Ah ikoski 1,*, Seija Tuulen ie 1, Ville Hallikainen 1, Vesa Ni ala 1, Ee o Va anen 2, Liisa Ty äinen 3 and Hannu Salminen 1 1 Finnish Fo es Resea ch Ins i u e, No he n Uni , E elä an a 55, P.O. Box 16, FI-96301 Ro aniemi, Finland; E-Mails: seija. uulen ie@me la. i (S.T.); ille.hallikaine[email p o ec ed] (V.H.); [email p o ec ed] (V.N.); hannu.salminen@me la. i (H.S.) 2 Uni e si y o Eas e n Finland, P.O. Box 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland; E-Mail: [email p o ec ed] 3 Finnish Fo es Resea ch Ins i u e, Sou he n Uni , P.O. Box 18, FI-1301 Van aa, Finland; E-Mail: liisa. y ainen@me la. i * Au ho o whom co espondence should be add essed; E-Mail: [email p o ec ed]; Tel.: +358-50-391-4416; Fax: +358-10-211-4401. Recei ed: 15 Sep embe 2011; in e ised o m: 6 Oc obe 2011 / Accep ed: 19 Oc obe 2011 / Published: 28 Oc obe 2011 Abs ac : Fo es y, as a la ge indus y, has signi ican impac s on he quali y o na u e-based ou ism landscapes in bo eal o es s. In Finland, he apid g ow h o na u e-based ou ism has expanded ou doo ec ea ion ac i i ies om p o ec ed a eas in o imbe p oduc ion o es s; his is pa icula ly so in no he n Finland. This pape ocuses on assessing balanced local ne impac s o h ee al e na i e land-use scena ios, in which he le el o in eg a ion be ween na u e-based ou ism (NBT) and adi ional o es y is a ied. The s udy is loca ed in no he n Finland in he a ea be ween wo op- a ed ou is eso s, Ylläs and Le i. The esul s o he case s udy suppo he idea o an eligible in eg a ion be ween NBT and o es y, which akes in o accoun scenic quali ies o o es ed landscapes by es ic ing adi ional managemen p ac ices. In ou case, he inc eased numbe o ou is s (due o a mo e a ac i e o es en i onmen ) o se he losses acc ued in o es y (due o es ic ed o es managemen ). Keywo ds: na u e-based ou ism; inpu -ou pu analysis; MOTTI s and simula o ; alue added; employmen OPEN ACCESS Fo es s 2011, 2 895 1. In oduc ion Fo es s in gene al p o ide many unc ions, p oducing, e.g., ec ea ional se ices [1,2] imbe [3], biodi e si y [4] and ca bon sinks [5]. Decisions conce ning he managemen o o es s una oidably in ol e ade-o s be ween hese al e na i e uses. Fo es ed landscapes p o ide policymake s as well as p ac i ione s mul iple managemen objec i es ha include he p oduc ion o an a ay o bo h ma ke ed goods and non-ma ke ed ecosys em se ices, o es ex e nali ies [6]. Na u e-based ou ism, as an example o o es ex e nali y, has an inc easing ole in Finnish Lapland. Na u e-based ou ism is a a he wide concep ha co e s ac i i ies ha people do while on holiday and which ocus on engagemen wi h na u e and usually includes an o e nigh s ay. The na u e expe iences o e ed wi hin p og am se ices may con ain mo o ized o non-mo o ized ac i i ies and include a ious ypes o na u al en i onmen s, o en combined wi h knowledge o local cul u es [7-11]. The ade-o be ween ou ism use and imbe p oduc ion in his s udy deals wi h all yea - ound ou ism. The a ious ypes o o es -based ou ism ac i i ies (walking, hiking, moun ing-biking, c oss coun y skiing, snow shoeing, husky and eindee sa a is) a e less in luenced by o es managemen in win e due o snow co e bu a ec pa icula ly egene a ion cu ings o dec ease ec ea ional and scenic alues o o es en i onmen s in summe [11]. Mos people use he ec ea ion and hiking ails o di e en kind o ac i i ies in win e and summe . The e o e, he quali y o he o es en i onmen along he ails as well as long dis ance iews seen om he ail and om iewing poin s needs o be add essed while enhancing he quali y o he o es en i onmen o ec ea ion and na u e-based ou ism [12]. A deepe unde s anding o syne gies and con lic s be ween na u e-based ou ism and o es y a e needed in land-use planning and na u al esou ce managemen . Mo eo e , i is impo an o conduc assessmen s ha e eal he ade-o s be ween al e na i e land-use policies wi h espec o he e ec s on he local economy. The demand o na u e-based ou ism has c ea ed new economic oppo uni ies wi hin egions ich in na u al ameni ies, such as no he n Eu ope. In Finnish Lapland, ou ism is al eady as impo an employe p o iding app oxima ely 4,300 man-yea s pe annum [7,8]. The e o e, na u e-based ou ism in bo h o i s o ms, i.e., non-consump i e and consump i e ou is ac i i y [1], has an impo an ole in ou ism in Finnish Lapland [7], especially in he municipali ies wi h la ge ou is eso s. Al hough ou ism has been g owing as , adi ional o es y concen a ing on imbe p oduc ion s ill plays a c ucial ole in Finnish Lapland, gene a ing a g oss e enue wo h app oxima ely 220 million eu o and p o iding 3,500 man-yea s pe annum [8]. The o al impac o ou ism in Finnish Lapland encompasses 377 million eu o o g oss e enue pe annum [8]. The posi ion o ou ism sec o in Finnish Lapland esembles many o he a eas a ound he wo ld wi h pe iphe al loca ion in ela ion o na ional cen e s [9,13]. Besides ou ism en ep eneu s, p i a e land owne s as well as he go e nmen make up an impo an pa o he supply o na u e-based ou ism in he No dic coun ies. P i a e landowne s a e o en encou aged by go e nmen al au ho i ies o di e si y in o ou ism ins ead o ag icul u al o o es y ac i i ies [14]. In Lapland, he s a e is ypically he key landowne esponsible o p o iding mos o he p o ec ed o o he na u e a eas wi h in as uc u e o ou doo ec ea ion and ou ism. The ela i ely as de elopmen o ou ism eso s in Finnish Lapland has expanded ou ism use om p o ec ed a eas in o imbe p oduc ion o es s; in u n his has c ea ed he demand o modi y cu en o es managemen egimes aimed mainly a imbe p oduc ion. Fo es s 2011, 2 896 As landscape quali y is one o he pull ac o s o No dic na u e-based ou ism, i is impo an o unde s and people’s expe iences and pe cep ions o he holiday en i onmen . In na u e-based ou ism a eas, he na u al en i onmen needs o mee he expec a ions o clien s. Rec ea ional oppo uni ies loca ed in scenic landscapes o m he base o ou ism a ac ions wi hin o nea na u e-based ou ism des ina ions. In hese a eas, main aining o enhancing ameni y alues o o es s may be a key objec i e o guide o es managemen decisions [15]. Fo es y, as a la ge indus y, has signi ican impac s on he quali y o na u e-based ou ism landscapes in bo eal o es s. The landscape p e e ence s udies show ha adi ional o es y managemen , in pa icula egene a ion p ac ices, ha e a la ge impac on landscape alues [16-20]. On he o he hand, managemen changes including small-scale managemen p ac ises may cause loss in imbe alues and job oppo uni ies, which need o be compensa ed o wi h inc eased income and employmen om he ou ism sec o . The main ocus o his s udy was o de e mine how many mo e ou is s pe annum would compensa e o he loss in annual imbe e enues. To achie e he goal we applied he inpu -ou pu , I-O analysis [21,22] o alue he ade-o s be ween na u e-based ou ism and adi ional o es y. In he calcula ions we emphasized local e ec s on (a) alue added and (b) employmen assessed by egional inpu -ou pu analysis [22]. The amewo k consis ed o h ee al e na i e land-use scena ios, whe e he le el o in eg a ion be ween NBT and o es y was changed. T ee g ow h, hinning and inal cu ings o al e na i e land-use scena ios we e based on s and p ojec ions p oduced by a s and simula o [3,23]. The e we e h ee easons o applying he I-O analysis—despi e some o i s sho comings [24]. Fi s ly, we had he exis ing inpu -ou pu ables o Lapland Region. Secondly, he e we e al eady sui able model applica ions o inpu -ou pu analysis o calcula ing adequa e assessmen s o he s udy pu pose. Thi dly we ocused on local e ec s, no na ionwide wel a e analysis. Finally we did no es ima e he demand o na u e-based ou ism as such, a he we e alua ed whe he he inc eased numbe o ou is s (due o mo e a ac i e o es en i onmen ) would be easible, gi en he cu en ou ism demand in Lapland. 2. Expe imen al Sec ion 2.1. S udy A ea The cen e o he s udy a ea is loca ed wi hin he Kä kä-Aakenus moun ain a ea in Fell Lapland, no he n Finland (Figu e 1). I consis s o 7,800 ha o s a e owned land a ea, o which 5,600 ha is o es land be ween wo op- a ed ou is eso s, Ylläs and Le i (Figu e 1). Kä kä-Aakenus moun ain a ea includes o es s, o es ed hills and mainly ba en ells, anging om 300 o 900 m abo e sea le el. The a e age annual mean empe a u e sum is abou 760 d.d. (deg ee days) indica ing ha sh g ow h condi ions nea imbe line [25]. App oxima ely 1,700 ha a e pine domina ed, 500 ha sp uce domina ed and he es o he o es land a ea consis s o mixed s ands in which he p opo ions o coni e ous ees (pine o sp uce) a y as well as he p opo ions o b oadlea ed ee species (mainly bi ch). O he o al o es land a ea (5,600 ha), as much as 3,400 ha include a ious kinds o conse ed species which pa ially limi s he o es managemen o mos ly in e media e hinning and inal cu ings. Fu he mo e, 675 ha a e s ic ly conse ed by a ious laws (ei he na ional o Eu opean Communi y S a u es). Fo es s 2011, 2 897 Acco ding o he las o es in en o y, he o al g owing s ock o he o es land a ea is app. 381,400 m3, co esponding o an a e age o 68.5 m3/ha. The o al a ea o ecommended immedia e inal cu ings (ma u e and old-g ow h s ands) is high, 2,180 ha co esponding o 39% o he o al o es land a ea (Table 1). The abo e-men ioned cha ac e is ics o he o es land a ea (see Table 1) adequa ely ep esen he a e age g ow h condi ions p e ailing in no he n Finland [26,27]. Figu e 1. La ge-scale maps and he loca ion o he case s udy si e wi h e e ence o Finnish geog aphy and he wo ou is eso s, Ylläs and Le i. Table 1. Desc ip ion o he s a e o es cha ac e is ics in he s udy a ea. To al o es land a ea is 5,600 ha. Ca ego y by de elopmen classes P opo ion o he o al land a ea (%) A e age olume, m3/ha (s anda d de ia ion, S.D.) Biological age, y s (S.D.) Dominan heigh , m (S.D.) Seedling s and 18% 12.3 (16.5) 17 (14.2) 3.6 (3.4) Young s and 43% 69.9 (39.0) 53 (36.3) 9.4 (5.8) Ma u e s and 28% 87.9 (37.2) 115 (82.2) 9.8 (6.7) Old-g ow h s and (a) 11% 76.9 (48.2) 158 (39.4) 13.5 (3.8) (a) He e, old-g ow h s and is desc ibed only by biological age. S ands olde han 140 yea s belong o his ca ego y. The impac o ou ism in he Fell Lapland egion as a whole is signi ican . In 2006, he e we e o e 800,000 egis e ed o e nigh s (one hi d o hem being o eigne s) oge he in Ylläs and Le i ou is eso s, and he u no e in he accommoda ion and es au an business was 74 million eu o [7]. The Fo es s 2011, 2 898 na u al en i onmen wi hin he egion p o ides as ec ea ional oppo uni ies o ou is s. The Ylläs ou is eso is loca ed nea by he ex ensi e Pallas-Ylläs Na ional Pa k, which is he mos isi ed na ional pa k in Finland wi h mo e han 400,000 isi s annually [28]. Le i ou is eso is su ounded pa ly by p i a e o es as well as s a e owned o es s in which he key goal is wood p oduc ion. 2.2. Me hods 2.2.1. S and P ojec ions and he Applica ion o Inpu -Ou pu Analysis Al e na i e land-use scena ios we e p oduced by indi idual s and p ojec ions ha we e based on he MOTTI s and simula o . MOTTI is a s and-le el g ow h simula o including speci ic dis ance-independen ee-le el models o p edic ing, e.g., na u al egene a ion, g ow h and mo ali y, as well as e ec s o managemen on ee g ow h [29]. I is designed o simula e s and de elopmen unde al e na i e managemen egimes and g ow h condi ions in Finland [23,29,30] wi h sepa a e models o pea land ees a ailable [29,31]. Fu he mo e, he use can de ine di e en pa ame e s o he simula ions—such as managemen schedule, s umpage p ices, uni cos s o sil icul u al measu es and discoun a e. The pe o mance o he MOTTI simula o has been assessed in young Sco s pine s ands by Ah ikoski e al. [32], Huuskonen and Ah ikoski [33] and Huuskonen [34], and in mixed s ands by Hynynen e al. [29]. Mäkinen e al. [35] e alua ed he eliabili y o he g ow h p edic ions in in ensi ely managed Sco s pine s ands. The esul s indica e ha he MOTTI simula o can be applied as a ool o compa e s and managemen al e na i es in Finnish condi ions. In his s udy he numbe o in e media e hinnings was es ic ed o wo (2) since he ime ho izon was only 30 yea s. In ha sh g ow h condi ions mo e han wo in e media e hinnings wi hin a 30-yea ime ho izon is p ac ically una ainable, gi en he a e age o a ion pe iod exceeding well o e 100 yea s. Fu he , common sil icul u al measu es (such as soil p epa a ion, plan ing, di ec sowing, ending o sapling s and and o es d ainage) we e allowed, he in ensi y o he measu es depending on he land-use scena io. In gene al, inpu -ou pu , I-O analyses a e qui e widely applied in assessing economic impac s o ou ism [36-38]. Howe e , he impac o ou ism on economic ac i i y in he s a e o na ion as a whole canno be ackled wi h local inpu -ou pu analysis [24]. Ne e heless, local e ec s on alue added and employmen can be de e mined by using inpu -ou pu analysis [24]. Ano he aspec a o ing he use o inpu -ou pu analysis in his connec ion is he e a e no exis ing eady-made compu able gene al equilib ium (CGE) models a ailable [24,39], o in he exis ing pa ial equilib ium models, he ou ism sec o is no inco po a ed [40,41]. Inpu -ou pu analysis o igina es om he esul s o he inpu -ou pu model and inpu -ou pu ables (me hod), which we e ini ially de eloped by Leon ie [42]. Typically I-O analysis has been used o assessing he impac o a change in he demand condi ions o indus ies o he economy. The basic ela ionships in his model a e o en w i en in ma ix no a ion, which a e p esen ed in an appendix. 2.2.2. Speci ic Fea u es o he Inpu -Ou pu Analysis The inpu -ou pu ables o Lapland Region [43] we e used o he I-O analysis we made o wo indus y g oups, namely “Fo es y and ela ed manu ac u ing” and “Tou ism”. Fo Fo es y and ela ed manu ac u ing we sum up impac s o he ollowing indus ies: “Fo es y, logging and ela ed se ice Fo es s 2011, 2 899 ac i i ies”, “Manu ac u e o pulp, pape and pape p oduc s” and “Manu ac u e o wood and o p oduc s o wood and co k, excep u ni u e”. We assess he di ec demand o ou ism wi h ou ism sa elli e accoun s (TSA) and inpu -ou pu ables o Lapland o 2002 [43,44]. The TSA is weigh ed wi h he ou pu /employmen o all ou ism- ela ed indus ies by he a io o ou ism expendi u es o o al expendi u es o each indus y [45-48]. To de e mine he indi idual ou is income, we i s de i ed he a e age du a ion o egis e ed ou is o e nigh s ays (including bo h domes ic and o eign ou is s who ha e s ayed in ho els o in o he egis e ed accommoda ion) om sub-coun y da abase sou ces [49] esul ing in 3.7 days pe ou is . To his alue we applied he a e age isi o expendi u e o €64.8/day in he egion [49]. Ha ing es ima ed he a e age consump ion o each ou is (3.7 days × €64.8/day), we also had o e alua e how much was spen on accommoda ion and how much o he o al p ice o a package ou spilled o e [50]. The igu es o accommoda ion and spillo e s o he package ou s we e based on a ecen epo [49]; hey we e €40/day and €72.8/day, espec i ely. Finally, we es ima ed ha each ou is would gene a e a di ec income o €660 du ing his/he isi in he Le i and Ylläs egion (3.7 × (64.8 + 40 + 72.8). This igu e co esponds well wi h he la es s udy on he subjec in ha egion [47], and i is assumed o gene a e mul iplie e ec s acco ding o he la es egional inpu -ou pu ables [43]. Fo simplici y we calcula ed he accumula i e alue added (millions o eu o) and accumula i e employmen (pe son-yea s) o he nex 30 yea s. By his p ocedu e (i.e., assessing accumula i e alues) we a oid p oblema ic de ails such as he decision o social discoun a e ( o he social discoun a e, see S igli z [51]) wi hou changing any hing o subs ance. Technically, in o ming he accumula i e alues o alue added and employmen , we summed up he esul s o each i e-yea pe iod o s and p ojec ions associa ed wi h al e na i e land-use scena ios. One should no e ha he e we e mino di e ences be ween land-use scena ios wi h espec o he pa e ns o when each i e-yea pe iod’s alue added o employmen was a i s peak o lowes poin . In summing up, hese mino di e ences be ween land-use scena ios e ened ou since we did no ake in o accoun he ime by discoun ing. 2.2.3. Land-Use Scena ios and Tou is s’ P e e ences The dependence be ween pa icula land-use scena io and ec ea ion demand (exp essed as he amoun o ou is s) canno be ackled di ec ly he e since he e a e no s udies in simila condi ions which could link di e en o es managemen schedules (land-use scena ios) o changes in ou is lows, o al e na i ely in ou is expendi u es [50]. The link be ween o es managemen p ac ices and he ec ea ion en i onmen is, howe e , s udied pa icula ly in landscape p e e ences s udies [12,17-20,52]. The esul s sugges ha in main aining long-dis ance scenes, o example, he delinea ion o cu ing a eas should be i in o landscape s uc u e a oiding a i icial and geome ic o ms. Mo eo e , la ge and isible egene a ion uni s should be a oided in managemen in o de o sus ain he o es ed appea ance o he a ea [20]. The impac o hinnings is o en conside ed o be posi i e due o imp o ed isibili y and walkabili y wi hin he o es s and. Na u al egene a ion p ese ing seed ees on he si e is a be e -accep ed managemen me hod bo h in nea - iew and long-dis ance scenes [12,18,52]. Mo eo e , a ecen s udy sugges s ha in ela i ely la landscapes, p o essionally designed egene a ion cu ings help in opening up long-dis ance iews, which a e app ecia ed by o eign ou is s [12]. In his Fo es s 2011, 2 900 s udy we assumed a posi i e ela ionship be ween main aining long-dis ance scenes as well as nea iew and he amoun o ou is s indica ing ha he be e he long-dis ance scene and nea - iew a e main ained in he landscape, he highe he in lux o isi o s. 2.2.4. Land-Use Scena ios Th ee di e en land-use scena ios we e applied in he s udy egion wi hin he ime span o 30 yea s. These al e na i e land-use scena ios ep esen ed al e na i e ou looks on he p ac ices o na u al esou ces managemen ( o es s and managemen ), and in he ollowing he h ee scena ios a e desc ibed in de ail. (1) Business-As-Usual, BAU. In his scena io he wood p oduc ion possibili ies in s a e owned o es s a e exploi ed wi h he magni ude ha co esponds o p ac ical o es y du ing he pas decade in he s udy egion. This scena io closely esembles o maximum sus ainable yield, which is commonly e e ed o in he li e a u e [53,54]. Howe e , he BAU scena io does no exac ly co espond o maximum sus ainable yield, since he e ha e been some adjus men s in p ac ical o es y in he s udy egion. These adjus men s ha e in ol ed clea cu ing a eas as well as in ensi e hinnings. The adjus men s ha e esul ed in app. 20% less imbe p oduc ion pe annum han would ha e occu ed i pu e maximum sus ainable yield had been applied in he s a e owned o es s. In his scena io he quali y o o es ec ea ion en i onmen is an ex e nal ou come o o es managemen ocusing on imbe p oduc ion. Technically, all o he o es land a ea (5,600 ha) is managed acco ding o he la es sil icul u al ecommenda ions [55]. This scena io is he baseline o which he o he wo scena ios (2 and 3) a e compa ed. (2) Na u e-Based Tou ism A, NBTA. In his scena io he nea by en i onmen along he ails o ou doo ec ea ion is es ic ed om in ensi e o es managemen using speci ic bu e zones. An adequa e wid h o he bu e zones was de e mined by a ield isi in 2008. The i s bu e zone ollows he ail so ha wi hin a ange o 50 m om bo h sides o he ail, o es managemen was no allowed a all. In he o he bu e zone ep esen ing 50 m o 100 m om bo h sides o he ail, only a na ow ange o managemen me hods such as seed ee cu ings and hinnings we e allowed, i.e., no clea cu ings a all (Figu e 2). In summa y, his land-use scena io only limi s o es managemen along he ails o ou doo ec ea ion, lea ing o he a eas opened o he o es managemen aiming a wood p oduc ion. This scena io would allu e mo e ou is s in o he s udy egion due o a mo e a ac i e o es en i onmen han in scena io 1, BAU. Res ic ing o es managemen only along he ails used o ou doo ec ea ion, esul ed in ha al oge he 940 ha ( ep esen ing 17%) o o es land was unde es ic ed o es managemen in he s udy egion. Fo es s 2011, 2 901 Figu e 2. Illus a i e map o scena io 2 (Na u e-Based Tou ism A, NBTA). T ails, bu e zones and managemen es ic ions a e depic ed in a ious colou s and ma kings. (3) Na u e-Based Tou ism B, NBTB. Landscape along he ails as well as key landscape iews wi hin he a ea a e secu ed by es ic ing o es managemen . Fi s , a ield isi was conduc ed o loca e he main iewpoin s o he case s udy egion. Second, a isual sensi i i y analysis by GIS (wi h ou obse e poin s) was applied o de e mine sensi i e landscape a eas, i.e., a eas whe e any in ensi e o es managemen p ac ices would be isible o la ge use g oups. The c i e ion was ha he landscape iew has o be seen a leas om wo ou o he ou obse e poin s simul aneously (Figu e 3). The idea o iden i ying key landscape iews was o secu e an image o o es ed landscape in he a eas ha would be c i ical o ou doo ec ea ion expe iences i he numbe o isi o s we e o inc ease in he u u e. This scena io, compa ed o scena io 2 (Na u e-base ou ism A), ep esen s a signi ican ly highe le el o in eg a ion o na u e-based ou ism in o o es managemen p ac ices. This scena io also allu es mo e ou is s han scena io 1, BAU. In his scena io 3,400 (61%) ha became es ic ed om o es managemen . As an o e iew o he land-use scena ios we p esen a able (Table 2), which includes annual cu ing emo als and sil icul u al in ensi y associa ed wi h each scena io. Finally, o each land-use scena io he simula ed s and p ojec ions (MOTTI s and simula o ) wi hin he nex 30 yea s we e con e ed in o sil icul u al measu es (exp essed as ha, and u he in eu o), hinnings ( i s m3, hen eu o) and inal cu ings (m3, eu o), and hese alues we e ed in o he inpu -ou pu analysis. Fo es s 2011, 2 902 Figu e 3. Illus a i e map o scena io 3 (Na u e-Based Tou ism B, NBTB). Fou clumps o obse e poin s (1–4) as well as managemen es ic ions a e depic ed in he g aph. Table 2. Annual cu ing emo als and sil icul u al ac i i y associa ed wi h al e na i e scena ios du ing he nex 30 yea s. Land-use scena io Annual cu ing emo al (m3) Sil icul u al in ensi y (a) (1) Business-as-usual, BAU 4,960 100.0% (2) Na u e-based ou ism A 4,360 75.0% (3) Na u e-based ou ism B 3,710 39.0% (a) Sil icul u al in ensi y in his connec ion means ha o al ac eage o sil icul u al measu es (such as soil p epa a ion o cul i a ion, plan ing, di ec sowing, ending o sapling s and, o es d ainage and e iliza ion) was summed up o he nex 30 yea s, and he ac eage ep esen ing BAU scena io was se o 100%. 3. Resul s and Discussion The s a is ics e eal ha egis e ed o e nigh s in Lapland ha e almos doubled om 1990 o 2008 ( he alue o 2008 being 2,348,430 o e nigh s), and pa icula ly he sha e o Fell Lapland has inc eased du ing ha ime pe iod [7] O e all inc ease in ou ism in he eso s o Ylläs and Le i has been apid du ing he 2,000 s. Fo example, egis e ed o e nigh s ays in Le i inc eased om 2002 o 2008 om abou 250,000 pe annum o abou 350,000 pe annum. In Ylläs, espec i ely, he g ow h was e en bigge , om abou 130,000 pe annum in 2002 o almos 350,000 pe annum in 2008. A e ha , due o economic ecession, he annual numbe o o e nigh s ays has emained in abou he same le el [7,56]. Howe e , he e a e many ac o s ha in luence ou ism demand. The quali y o he o es Fo es s 2011, 2 909 39. Dwye , L.; Fo sy h, P.; Ray, S. Assessing he economic impac s o e en s: A compu able gene al equilib ium app oach. Jou nal o T a el Resea ch 2006, 45, 67-82. 40. Kallio, A.M.I.; Hänninen, R.; Vainikainen, N.; Luque, S. Biodi e si y alue and he op imal loca ion o o es conse a ion in Sou he n Finland. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 67, 232-243. 41. Kallio, A.M.I. Accoun ing o unce ain y in a o es sec o model using Mon e-Ca lo simula ion. Fo es Policy Econ. 2010, 12, 9-16. 42. Leon ie , W.W. The S uc u e o Ame ican Economy 1919–1939; Ox o d Uni e si y P ess: New Yo k, NY, USA, 1951. 43. Regional Accoun s, Inpu -Ou pu Tables o Lapland Re lec ing he Yea 2002. Da abase Selec ion om Online Regional B anch Economics. S a is ics Finland: Helsinki, Finland, 2006. A ailable online: h p://pxweb2.s a . i/da abase/S a Fin/kan/ap /ap _ i.asp (accessed on 14 No embe 2010). 44. Kon inen, J. Ma kailun sa ellii i ilinpi o ja alue aloudellise aiku ukse . KTM ahoi e u u kimukse 4/2005 [Tou ism Sa elli e Accoun s, Regional Impac s]; Kauppa-ja eollisuusminis e iö: Edi a Publishing L d: Helsinki, Finland, 2005; in Finnish. 45. Sme al, E. Tou ism sa elli e accoun s: A c i ical assessmen . Jou nal o T a el Resea ch 2006, 45, 92-98. 46. Spu , R. Tou ism sa elli e accoun s. In In e na ional Handbook on he Economics o Tou ism; Dwye , L., Fo sy h, P., Eds.; Edwa d Elga Publishing: Chel enham/Cambe ley, UK, 2006; pp. 283-299. 47. Va anen, E.; Hyppönen, M. Pallas-ylläs un u in kansallispuis on in es oin ien aiku ukse un u i-lapin paikallis alou een. Maaseudun Uusi Aika 2008, 16, 24-41; in Finnish. 48. Bonn, M.; Ha ing on, J. A compa ison o h ee economic impac models o applied hospi ali y and ou ism esea ch. Tou ism Econ. 2008, 14, 769-789. 49. Lappi, Elämän oimaa. Ma kailus a egia 2007-2010. Julkaisu A22/2008 [Lapland—Vi ali y o Li e. Lapland Tou ism S a egy 2007–2010]; Lapin Lii o: Ro aniemi, Finland, 2008; in Finnish. 50. Alpiza , F. The p icing o p o ec ed a eas in na u e-based ou ism: A local pe spec i e. Ecol. Econ. 2006, 56, 294-307. 51. S igli z, J.E. Discoun a es: The a e o discoun o bene i -cos analysis and he heo y o he second bes . In Cos -Bene i Analysis, 2nd ed.; Laya d, R., Glais e , S., Eds.; Camb idge Uni e si y P ess: New Yo k, NY, USA, 1996; pp. 116-159. 52. Ribe, R.G. Aes he ic pe cep ions o g een- ee e en ion ha es s in is a iews: The in e ac ion o cu le el, e en ion pa e n and ha es shape. Landscape U ban Plan. 2005, 73, 277-293. 53. Bos on, K.; Be inge , D. The economic impac o g een-up cons ain s in he Sou heas e n Uni ed S a es. Fo es Ecol. Manag. 2001, 145, 191-202. 54. O iz, M.; Wol , M. Quali a i e modeling o he Cae e mang o e es ua y (No h B azil): A p elimina y app oach o an in eg a ed eco-social analysis. Es ua . Coas . Shel S. 2004, 61, 243-250. 55. Hy än me sänhoidon suosi ukse . Sil icul u al ecommenda ions o Finland; Me sä alouden Kehi ämiskeskus Tapio: Helsinki, Finland, 2006; in Finnish. 56. Lapin ma kailus a egia 2011–2014 [Lapland’s ou ism s a egy o 2011–2014]. Lapin Lii o: Ro aniemi, Finland, 2011. A ailable online: h p://www.lapinlii o. i/c/documen _lib a y/ ge _ ile? olde Id=349619&name=DLFE-9598.pd (accessed on 19 Sep embe 2011). Fo es s 2011, 2 910 57. An Online S a is ics on P oduc i i y in Di e en B anches o Indus y a Yea 2007; S a is ics Finland: Helsinki, Finland, 2007. A ailable online: h p://www.s a . i/index_en.h ml (accessed on 4 July 2010). 58. Hallikainen, V.; Koi umaa, J. Ma kailijoiden ja ma kailuy i äjien käsi yksiä me sä alouden aiku ukses a Aakenus-Kä kä—alueeseen ma kailuympä is ön; Lapin Lii o: Ro aniemi, Finland, 2007; in Finnish. 59. Jä iluoma, J. Na u e o Tou is s. Su ey o he Role o Na u e as a Tou is A ac ion A ibu e in Fou Tou is Cen es in Lapland. Ph.D. Disse a ion, Facul y o Social Sciences, Uni e si y o Lapland: Ro aniemi, Finland, 2006; Ac a Uni e si a is Lappoensis 96. Appendix. P inciples o Ou Inpu -Ou pu Analysis The Leon ie ’s basic model is he s a ing poin o he inpu -ou pu analysis. The ma ix equa ion o he model is -1 X = (I - A) F (1) whe e X is he ec o o ou pu s, F is he ec o o inal demands, A is a ma ix o ixed inpu coe icien s, and Z is a ma ix o in e media e uses ˆ-1 A = ZX . Zij is an ou pu om indus y Xi used as an inpu by indus y Xj and I is he iden i y ma ix (wi h ones on he diagonal and ze os elsewhe e). The so-called Leon ie ’s in e se ma ix (I-A)-1 ep esen s a mul iplie used o calcula e o e all changes in indus ial ou pu s caused by changes in inal demand. Fo a mo e comple e accoun o inpu -ou pu analysis, see en Raa [1] o Mille & Blai [2]. We use his basic model o assess impac s o inc eased ou ism, because new ou is s b ing he new inal demand o a local economy. Res ic ions on adi ional o es managemen educe he p ocu emen o logs and pulpwood. The e o e he ou pu s o o es y and ela ed manu ac u ing indus ies also dec ease. We es ima ed he impac s o educed ou pu s wi h an ou pu - o-ou pu model o a o al low model [3,4]. Szy me [5] de i ed a o al low (TF) ma ix o cap u e he mul iplie e ec s o a uni o ou pu as a subs i u e o a uni o inal demand. He gene a ed his o al low ma ix om he in e se o he Leon ie ma ix in he ollowing way:  -1 -1 TF = (I - A) (D) (2) whe e  (D) e e s o a diagonal ma ix based on he diagonal o he Leon ie in e se ma ix. TF ma ix in which he mul iplie e ec s o a uni o ou pu is cap u ed [5,6]. I is possible o de ine he absolu e g oss e ec s o indus ies by mul iplying a diagonal ma ix composed o he ou pu s o all indus ies (  X) by he o al low ma ix (TF) o ob ain an analy ical ma ix o ou pu s [7]. ^ R=(TF)X (3) The diagonal cells o he ma ix R indica e he ou pu s o di e en indus ies, and he o —diagonal column cells indica e he di ec and indi ec ou pu equi emen s o he indus y ep esen ed by he ow conce ned wi h espec o he ou pu o he indus y deno ed by he column. Fo es s 2011, 2 911 The sum o a column in he ma ix R indica es he o al g oss ou pu s associa ed wi h ha indus y in he economy ( he indus y’s own ou pu and he di ec and indi ec ou pu equi emen s o o he indus ies = he o al g oss e ec s o he indus y conce ned). The absolu e g oss impac s canno be added oge he , howe e , because he sum o hese sums is mo e han he o al ou pu o he whole economy, due o he ac ha he calcula ions o g oss impac s coun some o he equi emen s o in e media es mo e han once. The g oss impac s o an ou pu analysis he e o e ha e o be calcula ed indus y by indus y [3,5,8]. The me hod o he calcula ion o he ne e ec is used o assess ne impac s o he educed ou pu s o o es y and ela ed manu ac u ed indus ies. In gene al he ne e ec s o indus ies (NX) a e de ined in Equa ion (4) , NX = X + (e'R)'- Re (4) whe e e is a summing ec o . Summing bo h sides o Equa ion (4) gi es () X  e'NEX = e' X + (e'R)'- Re e'X e'NEX (5) Thus he o al g oss ou pu X in he economy and he sum o he ne e ec s o indus ies a e equi alen . This means ha no o e es ima ed ne ou pu e ec s o double coun ing o in e media es exis . Double coun ing c oss-impac s o o es y and ela ed manu ac u ed indus ies we e elimina ed by he calcula ion o he ne e ec s. Fo ins ance, impac s o o es indus ies on o es y a e included in he ou pu o o es y, and he e o e hese mus be sub ac ed om he g oss impac s o o es y. In he same way, all c oss-impac s among o es y and ela ed manu ac u ing indus ies a e elimina ed. Finally he calcula ion o he impac s in alue added and employmen om he impac s o ou pu s is made by coe icien s o alue added and employmen . The e ec s o ou pu on he alue added in an indus y, VAE, a e ob ained by mul iplying he analysis ma ix R by he diagonal ma ix w, which consis s o he alue-added coe icien s: ^ ^ '' - wVAX VA alue added ec o o indus ies VAE w R    (6) I he employmen L in each indus y is known, he e ec s o o al ou pu on employmen can be ob ained. Employmen coe icien s o indi idual indus ies can be ob ained by di iding employmen in each indus y by he o al ou pu o ha indus y, X. Using a ma ix no a ion: 1 ˆ ' LX L X    (7) The analy ical ma ix o employmen is ob ained by mul iplying he diagonal ma ix o employmen coe icien s by he o al ou pu ma ix R: R L X X L   (8) Fo es s 2011, 2 912 Re e ences 1. Ten Raa, T. The Economics o Inpu -Ou pu Analysis; Camb idge Uni e si y P ess: New Yo k, NY, USA, 2006. 2. Mille , R.E.; Blai , P.D. Inpu -Ou pu Analysis. Founda ions and Ex ensions; P en ice-Hall: Englewood Cli s, NJ, USA, 2009. 3. Milana, C. Di ec and indi ec equi emen s o g oss ou pu in inpu -ou pu analysis. Me oeconomics 1985, 28, 283-292. 4. S einback, S.R. Using eady-made egional inpu -ou pu models o es ima e backwa d-linkage e ec s o exogenous ou pu shocks. The Re iew o Regional S udies 2004, 34, 57-71. 5. Szy me , J. Inpu -ou pu coe icien s and mul iplie s om a o al- low pe spec i e. En i on. Plann. 1992, A24, 921-937. 6. Knuu ila, M.; Va anen, E.; Jansik, C. Finnish ood indus y in 1989–2002: An ou pu -o ien ed inpu -ou pu analysis. Ac a Ag . Scand. C Food Econ. 2007, 2007, 217-228. 7. Va anen, E. Puunko juun ja puunkulje uksen paikallis aloudellise aiku ukse Ju an, Keu uun ja Pielisen Ka jalan seu ukunnissa. Me sän u kimuslai oksen iedonan oja 825, 2001; p. 73; in Finnish. 8. Heimle , A. Linkages and e ical in eg a ion in he Chinese economy. Re . Econ. S a is ics 1991, 73, 261-267. © 2011 by he au ho s; licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land. This a icle is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms and condi ions o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/3.0/).