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Sustainability in tourism determined by an asymmetric game with mobility

Chica Serrano, Manuel

Abstract

M.C. was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Andalusian Government, University of Granada, and ERDF under grants SIMARK (P18-TP-4475) , RYC-2016-19800, and PPJIA2020-09 (TURCOMPLEX) . J.H. was supported by the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, under grant COVID-19 04. M.P. was supported by the Slovenian Research Agency (Grant Nos. P1-0403 and J1-2457) . Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Granada/CBUA.

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Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 A ailable online 9 Ap il 2022 0959-6526/© 2022 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/). Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/jclep o Sus ainabili y in ou ism de e mined by an asymme ic game wi h mobili y Manuel Chicaa,b,∗, Juan M. He nándezc, Ma jaž Pe cd,e, ,g aAndalusian Resea ch Ins i u e DaSCI ‘‘Da a Science and Compu a ional In elligence", Uni e si y o G anada, 18071 G anada, Spain bSchool o Elec ical Enginee ing and Compu ing, The Uni e si y o Newcas le, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Aus alia cDepa men o Quan i a i e Me hods in Economics and Managemen , Uni e si y Ins i u e o Tou ism and Sus ainable Economic De elopmen (TIDES), Uni e si y o Las Palmas de G an Cana ia, 35017 Las Palmas, Spain dFacul y o Na u al Sciences and Ma hema ics, Uni e si y o Ma ibo , Ko oška ces a 160, 2000 Ma ibo , Slo enia eDepa men o Medical Resea ch, China Medical Uni e si y Hospi al, China Medical Uni e si y, Taichung, Taiwan Alma Ma e Eu opaea, Slo enska ulica 17, 2000 Ma ibo , Slo enia gComplexi y Science Hub Vienna, Jose s äd e s aße 39, 1080 Vienna, Aus ia ARTICLE INFO Handling Edi o : Zhi u Mi Keywo ds: Asymme ic game Spa ial s uc u e Mig a ion E olu iona y game heo y Sus ainable ou ism O e - ou ism ABSTRACT Many coun ies wo ldwide ely on ou ism o hei economic well-being and de elopmen . Bu wi h issues such as o e - ou ism and en i onmen al deg ada ion looming la ge, he e is a p essing need o de e mine a way o wa d in a sus ainable and mu ually ewa ding manne . Wi h his mo i a ion, we he e p opose an asymme ic e olu iona y game wi h mobili y whe e local s akeholde s and ou is s can ei he coope a e o de ec in a spa ially s uc u ed se ing. Ou s udy e lec s ha sus ainable ou ism is p ima ily de e mined by an op imal ade-o be ween economic bene i s o he s akeholde s and hei cos s ela ed o he applica ion o sus ainabili y policies. In con as , he speci ic bene i s and cos s o he ou is s a e compa a i ely less ele an . The eade can also obse e ha allowing o g ea e ou is mobili y dec eases coope a ion and leads o as e pola iza ion among local s akeholde s. In ag eemen wi h obse a ions wo ldwide, we iden i y dec easing popula ion densi ies in ou is a eas in e ms o bo h, s akeholde s and ou is s, o be a key aid o g ea e coope a ion and o e all sus ainabili y o ou ism. These esul s a e oo ed in spa ial o ma ions and complex alliances ha mani es spon aneously h ough he e olu iona y dynamics in a s uc u ed popula ion. 1. In oduc ion Tou ism is a human ac i i y ha implies in e ac ion among wo popula ions, ou is s and s akeholde s (i.e., local business, se ice p o ide s, and esiden s). Con inuous and non- i uous ela ionships be ween hese ac o s can gene a e o e - ou ism, which is a ype o unsus ainable ou ism de elopmen cha ac e ized by a change o he local li es yle and socio-cul u al iden i y, loss o ameni ies, and local businesses. O e - ou ism is hen e ealed as a physical ‘‘ ou is i ica- ion’’ o domina ion o ou ism business in he ci y cen e s (Cheung and Li,2019;Koens e al.,2018;Mihalic,2020;Milano e al.,2019). This is no a new phenomenon bu he e was a g owing conce n o unsus ainable ou ism de elopmen in he las decade, mos ly a is- ing in ci ies. Al hough he causes o o e - ou ism a e complex and mul idimensional, he mos ele an ones a e he high inc ease o accommoda ion uni s o ou ism since he i up ion o pla o ms such as Ai bnb, excessi e a luence o isi o s, he de e io a ion o en i onmen al condi ions, ood was e, and inapp op ia e beha io o ou is and local s akeholde (Cheung and Li,2019;Koens e al.,2018; Milano e al.,2019;Wang e al.,2021a;Se aphin e al.,2018). ∗Co esponding au ho a : Andalusian Resea ch Ins i u e DaSCI ‘‘Da a Science and Compu a ional In elligence", Uni e si y o G anada, 18071 G anada, Spain. E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (M. Chica), [email p o ec ed] (J.M. He nández), [email p o ec ed] (M. Pe c). Se e al measu es o a oid o e - ou ism and a o sus ainabili y ha e been implemen ed in ecen yea s. Some o hem a e o ien ed o es ic he ac i i y o local s akeholde s. Fo example, he ci y o Ba celona has applied limi s o accommoda ion g ow h by imi a ing simila solu ions implemen ed in coas al des ina ion wo decades be- o e (Dodds,2007;Wea e ,2012). Local go e nmen om Ams e dam has op ed by es ic ing ou ism- ela ed comme cial ac i i ies in he ci y cen e (Goodwin,2019). O he policies ha e been ocused on egula ing some speci ic ou is ic ac i i ies such as banning isi s o ce ain a eas (e.g., he Maya Beach in Thailand BBC (2018)), imposing highe ees o axes o isi ce ain ci ies (e.g., Venice Be linghie i (2021)), se ing s ic egula ions o ou is s’ beha io (e.g., Rome and Ba celona Goodwin (2019)), and a oiding he ad e ising o some s a a ac ions (e.g., he Taj Mahal monumen in India Khalil,2017). Unde s anding he uling o ces o o e - ou ism and he dynamics o he di e en ou ism playe s a e necessa y o selec he mos ap- p op ia e policy o handle his phenomenon and mo e owa ds a mo e sus ainable ou ism de elopmen . This is he main goal o his wo k, h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.jclep o.2022.131662 Recei ed 10 Decembe 2021; Recei ed in e ised o m 10 Ma ch 2022; Accep ed 2 Ap il 2022 Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 2 M. Chica e al. whe e we p opose and analyze an e olu iona y game model o ep e- sen he phenomenon o o e - ou ism. We ocus on unde s anding he dynamics and social in e ac ions d i ing o unsus ainable o sus ainable ou ism, he ole o he agen s’ beha io , and how o e - ou ism can appea in a social ne wo k om he dynamic in e ela ionship among ou is s and local ou ism businesses (we call hem s akeholde s, om now on). Ou p oposed model is an e olu iona y asymme ic game which in oduces wo ime-in a ian oles o he popula ions’ playe s: ou is s and s akeholde s. Al hough e olu iona y game heo y has been adi- ionally used o explain s able coope a i e in e ac ions among biolog- ical species (Ho baue and Sigmund,2003), he ange o applica ion has widened in he las decade. New e olu iona y models ha e been ecen ly buil o analyze he condi ions o coope a ion among agen s in ol ed in di e se con empo a y socioeconomic p oblems, such as ac ions agains clima e change (Pacheco e al.,2014) and eopening policies a e COVID-19 pandemic (Chica e al.,2021). Mo e speci ically, bo h playing oles o he p oposed model can choose o ei he coope a e (being sus ainable) o de ec (being unsus- ainable). This sus ainabili y can be unde s ood om an en i onmen al poin o iew (e.g., dec easing amoun o was e, adop ing low ca bon emission policies, o ha ing a p ope use o wa e ), o om a social poin o iew (e.g., by suppo ing local cul u e and business, educing ensions wi h esiden s, o o e ing au hen ic local and eco- iendly p oduc s and expe iences by he s akeholde s). The combined ac ions o he playe s in he spa ial ecosys em p oduce a payo o each playe when i in e ac s wi h playe s o an opposing ole. The e o e, he model is an asymme ic game wi h wo species ( ou is and s akeholde s) and wo s a egies ( hese models a e called bi-ma ix games Ho baue and Sigmund,2003). In gene al, asymme ic games include in e ac ion among any indi idual belonging o he same ole o no . Bu in ou case, in e ac ions a e only possible o indi iduals belonging o di e en species (i.e., opposing oles). The playe s o he game occupy nodes in a s uc u ed ne wo k o in e ac ions and accumula es i s payo s om pai -wise in e ac ions wi h neighbo s ha ing opposing ole. The asymp o ic s able s a egies in asymme ic games ha e been long analyzed in in ini e popula ions using eplica o equa ion (C essman and Tao,2014;Haue e al.,2019; McA oy and Haue ,2015) and o ini e popula ions using Ma ko p ocesses (Oh suki,2010). Howe e , when including s uc u ed pop- ula ions, he dynamic e olu ion o asymme ic models is inc eased in complexi y and esul s om well-mixed popula ions do no apply in his con ex (Szabó and Fá h,2007). Some gene al esul s o his kind o asymme ic games ha e been ound (McA oy and Haue ,2015), bu assuming es ic i e condi ions o e he s a egy upda e a e e y ime s ep. In o he cases, as in ou model, simula ions a e a use ul ool o s udy he e olu iona y dynamics o such game (Guo e al., 2020;Szolnoki and Pe c,2018;Wang e al.,2021c), and his is why we employ agen -based simula ions o compu ing he ou comes o he model (Macal and No h,2005;Adami e al.,2016). Addi ionally, he model inco po a es a mig a ion p ocess. Bu , o be close o eali y, his mig a ion p ocess is only pe o med by ou is s, one o he wo oles in he asymme ic game, which a e he dynamic playe s while s akeholde s ha e a mo e s a ic na u e. Tou is s can hen mig a e o emp y nodes a e e y ime s ep when a neighbo ing posi ion o he ne wo k is acan . This mig a ion p ocess p oduces new in e ac ions wi h ou is s akeholde s. The e ec o mig a ion in spa ial e olu ion o e olu iona y games has also been analyzed, a o ing inal coope a ion (Wang e al.,2021c;Zhang e al.,2021), bu has no been applied o a single ole in an asymme ic game. Ou o emos aim is o explo e he condi ions o acili a ing a coope a i e beha io o he popula ion o a oid o e - ou ism and help ou ism sus ainabili y. We also p esen he e he i s e olu ion- a y model o explain how o e - ou ism can unin en ionally appea in a ou is a ea om he collec i e in e ac ions be ween ou is s and s akeholde s. Thus, he expe imen a ion and he esul s o his wo k will consis o : (a) explo ing he ou come o he asymme ic model and main dynamics o he game and i s pa ame e s, (b) inding he bes condi ions o a oiding he de ec i e beha io o bo h oles o playe s, (c) showing he impac o in oducing mig a ion o ou is s and (d), obse ing he spa ial o ma ion o he s uc u ed popula ion a he end o he simula ion. 2. Theo e ical amewo k and ela ed wo k The e m sus ainable ou ism began o be used by academic e- sea che s a he beginning o he 90s, as an applica ion o he case o ou ism o he gene al concep o sus ainable de elopmen , popula - ized by he B und land epo (WCED,1987). The concep ualiza ion and p ac ice o sus ainable ou ism has been long deba ed h ough- ou hese las h ee decades, bu he de ini ion gi en by he Wo ld Tou ism O ganiza ion (UNWTO) has achie ed an ex ended consen- sus (Mihalic,2020). Acco ding o UNWTO, sus ainable ou ism is a ‘‘ ou ism ha akes ull accoun o i s cu en and u u e economic, social and en i onmen al impac s, add essing he needs o isi o s, he indus y, he en i onmen and hos communi ies’’ (UNWTO,2022). Then, sus ainable ou ism e e s o hese h ee p inciples, he economic, en i onmen al and socio-cul u al, and a sui able balance among hem o gua an ee long- e m sus ainabili y (UNWTO,2004). In his pape we deal wi h o e - ou ism, a ela i ely ecen e m aimed by i s di usion in social media and social con es . O e - ou ism can be desc ibed as ‘‘des ina ion whe e hos s o gues s, local o isi o s, eel ha he e a e oo many isi o s and he quali y o li e in he a ea o he quali y o he expe ience has de e io a ed unaccep ably’’ (Goodwin, 2017). The e o e, o e - ou ism is a o m o unsus ainable ou ism ha ocuses on he socio-psychological and socio-poli ical dimensions o sus ainabili y (Mihalic,2020). I s an i hesis is esponsible ou ism, a kind o ou ism based on he espec o he local cul u e (Goodwin, 2017). Responsible ou ism is he e o e a sus ainable ou ism in ac ion, o in o he wo ds, a ou ism whe e isi o s and s akeholde s beha e in a sus ainable manne (Mihalic,2016). The ole o ou is beha io and encoun e s wi h s akeholde s as a cause o o e - ou ism has been also s essed in o he explo a o y s udies (Koens e al.,2018). O he con ibu ions ela e o e - ou ism o esiden s’ nega i e a i udes on ou ism, main ained o e ime al hough he isi o s change beha io (Cheung and Li,2019). Then, o e - ou ism and esponsible ou ism lean on he ole o ac o s’ beha io o di ec o p omo e sus ainabili y, in line wi h he ecen in e es in he s udies o sus ainable ou ism (B amwell e al.,2017). The model p esen ed in his pape connec s wi h his beha io al aspec o sus ainabili y by p oposing an e olu iona y game model o show how o e - ou ism can na u ally appea om he in e ela ionship among ou is s and local s akeholde s. Fig. 1 shows he aming o ou wo k wi h espec o he c i ical a iable o s udy. E olu iona y game models ha e been p e iously used o ep esen he adop ion o sus ainable p ac ices in ou ism by mean o g een incen i es (He e al.,2018;An oci e al.,2013) and also o he p omo ion o eco- ou ism ac i i ies and i s implica ions in a cleane p oduc ion (Wang e al.,2021b). In hese con ibu ions, he au ho s s udy he dynamics o ou is s akeholde s, esiden s, and go e nmen s in a mul iplaye coo dina ion e olu iona y game. Unlike o p e ious s udies, ou model ocuses on he ela ionships and syne gies be ween ou is s and local s akeholde s, wi hou assuming any incen i e o ex e nal in luence o o ien he sys em o sus ainabili y. By doing so, we analyze he inne o ces in he ou is -s akeholde dyad ha can lead o sus ainable o unsus ainable ou ism. The de ails o he e olu iona y model a e gi en in he nex Sec ion 3. 3. Model The e olu iona y game is asymme ic since consis s o a ini e se o 𝑍agen s ha ing wo di e en and ime in a ian oles: being a ou is Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 3 M. Chica e al. Fig. 1. Theo e ical amewo k and ou line o ou p oposed e olu iona y model o sus ainable ou ism. (𝑇) o a s akeholde (𝑆). The model sa is ies ha 𝑍=𝑍𝑇+𝑍𝑆wi h 𝑍𝑇 being he numbe o ou is s and 𝑍𝑆 he numbe o s akeholde s. All he playe s a e dis ibu ed on he nodes o a social ne wo k. Speci ically, we conside a egula la ice, gi en i s simplici y wi h espec o o he in e ac ion ne wo ks such as scale- ee ne wo ks bu s ill ensu ing he undamen al p ope y o a limi ed playe s in e ac ion ange. Thanks o his limi a ion in he in e ac ion ange p o ided by he squa e la ice, we p o ide su icien condi ions o obse e all possible esul s ha a e due o pa e n o ma ion in he s udied sys em. The egula la ice has size 𝐿×𝐿, being 𝑍≤𝐿×𝐿so he la ice can ha e acan cells. We call 𝜌=𝑍 𝐿×𝐿 o he ime in a ian popula ion densi y o he la ice and 𝜌𝑇= 1 − 𝑍𝑆 𝑍 o he ou ism p essu e. Independen ly om i s ole, an agen 𝑖 om bo h popula ions can adop wo s a egies: coope a ion 𝐶o de ec ion 𝐷. Tou is coope a o s a e no ed by 𝑇 𝐶 while ou is de ec o s a e no ed by 𝑇 𝐷. We use he same no a ions o s akeholde s, being 𝑆𝐶 and 𝑆𝐷 he s akeholde coope a o s and s akeholde de ec o s, espec i ely. In ou model, co- ope a ion means o be sus ainable while de ec ion is unde s ood as a ou is op ion ha does no conside sus ainabili y in he ou ism ansac ion. 3.1. Payo s ma ix We de ine he e he pai -wise in e ac ion be ween wo playe s in he game ha ing opposing oles. In he model, a coope a i e beha io owa ds sus ainabili y can be seen as ob aining an added alue o he ou ism expe ience and some e enue o s akeholde s while bo h o hem pay a cos in a sho - e m ho izon. Table 1 shows he payo ma ix o he asymme ic game and hei in e ac ions o hese wo ypes o oles and bo h coope a ing and de ec ing s a egies. In he de ined payo s ma ix, e e y coope a ing ou ism s ake- holde 𝑆𝐶 o e s a sus ainable p oduc o se ice o a ou is . A ou is pays hen an addi ional cos 𝜖∈ [1,2] o his sus ainable ansac ion bu ob ains an added alue 𝜈(we se 𝜈= 1 o simplici y in he es o he pape ). This addi ional cos is also e e ed as he willingness o pay alue o a consume when ha ing sus ainable p oduc s o se ices o be chosen in hei decision p ocess (Zhao e al.,2018). On he o he hand, he e enue ob ained by he s akeholde om he sus ainable ansac ion is equal o he addi ional cos 𝜖paid by he ou is . I a ou is playe de ec s (𝑇 𝐷) and is no sus ainable when he s akeholde o e s a sus ainable asse , he coope a o s akeholde 𝑆𝐶 educes he /his p o i by an addi ional cos 𝛾∈ [0,1]. Tou is s, bo h Table 1 Payo s ma ix o each playe in he asymme ic game o sus ainable ou ism. Tou ism s akeholde (𝑆) 𝐶 𝐷 Tou is (𝑇) 𝐶 𝜈 −𝜖,𝜖−1 − 𝜏, 1 𝐷 𝜈 −𝜖,𝜖−𝛾−1 , 1 No es:𝜖is he cos o he ou is when choosing sus ainable ou ism ( he e enue o he s akeholde ); 𝜈is he added sus ainabili y alue o he ou is ; 𝛾is he addi ional cos o s akeholde o a ending a ou is de ec o ; and 𝜏is he ou is discom o when he p o ided o e is no ul illing hei expec a ions. coope a o s 𝑇 𝐶 and de ec o s 𝑇 𝐷, ob ain he added alue om he sus ainable se ice 𝜈minus i s addi ional cos 𝜖 om he ansac ion wi h coope a ing s akeholde s. When a s akeholde adop s a de ec ing s a egy 𝑆𝐷, i s payo is a no malized alue o 1independen ly om he s a egy ollowed by ou is s. Coope a ing ou is s 𝑇 𝐶 also pay a cos when s akeholde s do no p o ide a sus ainable asse , modeled by a discom o pa ame e 𝜏∈ [0,1]. In his way, ou is s ob ain a lowe payo o −1 − 𝜏i hey adop a sus ainable o coope a ion s a egy 𝐶 and hey do no ob ain he expec ed enue. 3.2. Payo s accumula ion and playe s’ s a egy upda e Playe s o bo h oles in e ac wi h hei di ec neighbo s in a pai - wise in e ac ion in he la ice. A ocal playe 𝑖only plays wi h hose ha ing opposing oles and accumula es i s payo in 𝛱𝑖 om all i s in e ac ions i a leas he e is one possible in e ac ion; being ou he maximum numbe o possible in e ac ions i all he neighbo ing cells a e occupied by agen s o opposing oles. The dynamics o he game includes an imi a ion p ocess o he neighbo ing agen s in he spa ial la ice and a mu a ion o andomly change he s a egies o he playe s a e e y ime s ep 𝑡. A playe 𝑖changes i s s a egy a andom wi h a mu a ion p obabili y 𝜇and imi a es he s a egy o a local neighbo wi h p obabili y 1 − 𝜇. As playe s will keep hei ole o he whole simula ion, hey can only imi a e o he playe s in he la ice ha ing he same ole in he game. A e playing he pai wise in e ac ions in he la ice and accumula ing i s payo s in 𝛱𝑖, a playe 𝑖has he oppo uni y o upda ing i s s a egy acco ding o his payo alue in p e ious ime s ep 𝑡− 1 and he ones om hei neighbo s. Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 4 M. Chica e al. Fig. 2. We obse e om he simula ion esul s how he sys em easily achie es a s a iona y s a e o wo di e en densi ies 𝜌∈ {0.3,0.8}, wi h and wi hou mig a ion. The es o pa ame e s a e 𝜖= 2.0,𝛾= 1.0,𝜏= 0.5wi h equal ini ial equency o s a egies. In his imi a ion p ocess, a playe 𝑖imi a es a playe 𝑗ha ing he same ole as 𝑖wi h a p obabili y 𝑝𝑖→𝑗 ha inc eases wi h hei payo di e ence (𝛱𝑗−𝛱𝑖, being 𝛱𝑖and 𝛱𝑗 he payo s o 𝑖and 𝑗in 𝑡− 1, espec i ely), as done in (T aulsen e al.,2006): 𝑝𝑖→𝑗=1 1 + 𝑒−(𝛱𝑗−𝛱𝑖)∕𝜅,(1) whe e he ampli ude o noise 𝜅equals o 0.1 as done in Wang e al. (2021c) and Zhang e al. (2021). I is impo an o no ice ha a playe 𝑗canno be imi a ed i i did no in e ac wi h any o he playe and did no accumula e any payo in p e ious ime s ep 𝑡− 1. This can happen i , o ins ance, a playe is isola ed in he la ice o all he neighbo ing playe s ha e he same ole. 3.3. The mig a ion p ocess The model also conside s a mig a ion p ocess o playe s ha ing a ou is ole. Tou is playe s mo e h ough he la ice a each ime s ep 𝑡 o a acan neighbo ing cell independen ly om hei s a egy. In case he e a e mo e han one neighbo ing acan posi ions, he agen picks one acan posi ion a andom o he mig a ion mo emen . S akeholde playe s canno mo e and keep he same posi ion o he spa ial cell du ing he simula ion. I popula ion densi y 𝜌= 1, he spa ial la ice has no acan posi ions and he e o e, no mig a ion is allowed. 3.4. Agen -based compu e simula ions We use Mon e-Ca lo (MC) agen -based simula ions (Macal and No h,2005;Adami e al.,2016), pe o med in compu ing clus e s and eso ing o pa allel compu ing a chi ec u es. E olu ion p oceeds in disc e e s eps in ol ing he payo s accumula ion, upda e ules, and mig a ion p ocesses in line wi h he dynamics desc ibed abo e. The mu a ion (o explo a ion) p obabili y (𝜇) equals 1 𝑍in all expe imen s. Fo he agen -based simula ions, he size o he popula ion is 𝑍= 4.9×103in a squa ed egula la ice o 70 ×70 wi h pe iodic bounda y condi ions and Von Neumann neighbo hood. Each node o he la ice is ei he acan o occupied by one playe . The acan posi ions a e gi en by densi y 𝜌. We un he model o 30 independen MC ealiza ions and a maximum numbe o 103synch onous ime s eps, whe e all he ealiza ions each a s a iona y s able s a e and de ia ion om he MC ealiza ions is low. Finally, all he simula ion esul s we e ob ained by a e aging he las 25% o he simula ion ime s eps in he independen MC ealiza ions. Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 5 M. Chica e al. Fig. 3. Final equency o 𝑇 𝐶 and 𝑆𝐶 o a sensi i i y analysis on 𝛾and 𝜖pa ame e s (𝜏= 0.5). We see how mig a ion educes coope a ion o ou is s and gene a es wo clea di e en egions wi h global coope a ing and de ec ing s a egies (pola iza ion o he popula ion). Highe densi ies also help o achie e his pola iza ion. 4. Resul s We i s analyze he gene al dynamics o he asymme ic model. La e , we e alua e he implica ions o he main pa ame e s o bo h sub- popula ions and how popula ion densi y and mig a ion a ec he ou - come o he model. Finally, we p esen he spa ial o ma ions ob ained in he la ice. 4.1. Tempo al e olu ion o he model and s a iona y s a e As s a ed in Sec ion 3.4, he model needs o be analyzed h ough simula ions since gene al esul s o asymme ic games do no apply in he con ex o a game in s uc u ed ne wo k allowing mig a ion. Ne e heless, we can i s analyze he asymp o ic end o he model in a simple case, well-mixed and in ini e popula ion, by using he eplica o equa ion. Calcula ion de ails can be ound in Appendix. Unde hese condi ions, he asymp o ic s able s a egy depends on he ela i e alues be ween he s akeholde s’ bene i ma gin when being sus ainable and a ending a coope a o ou is (𝜖− 1) and he cos o a ending a de ec o ou is (𝛾). The inal s a egy is pu e de ec ion in bo h popula ions when 𝛾 > 𝜖 − 1 and pu e coope a ion only o s akeholde s when 𝛾≤𝜖− 1. The speci ic asymp o ic s able s a egy o ou is s in he la e case anges be ween pu e coope a ion and pu e de ec ion, depending on he ini ial coope a ion le els in bo h popula ions. The la e obse a ion helps o o esee he ou comes o he gene al model. Fi s , we s udy whe he he simula ions con e ge o s able s a egies o di e en alues o he pa ame e s. Fig. 2 p esen s he empo al e olu ion o he s a egies adop ed by ou is and s akeholde playe s unde di e en popula ion densi ies 𝜌and mig a ion se ings. The esul s con i m ha he s a egy s abilizes a e 400 ime s eps o mos o he cases. The highes a iabili y in he inal equency o s a egies a e when ha ing low popula ion densi ies (𝜌= 0.3) wi h mig a ion. Ne e heless, hese igu es con i m he s abili y o he coope a ion le els in he long e m o di e en condi ions o he game. Addi ionally, no signi ican changes we e obse ed when modi ying he ini ial equency o s a egies o bo h oles o playe s. The e o e, we will se an equal ini ial equency o s a egies o ha e he same numbe o playe s wi h 𝑇 𝐶,𝑇 𝐷,𝑆𝐶, and 𝑆𝐷 in he es o he expe imen s. 4.2. Mig a ion and popula ion densi ies e ec s In his sec ion we un di e en sensi i i y analysis on he main pa ame e s o he model o unde s and he dynamics o he game when ha ing mig a ion unde di e en densi ies o he popula ion. Fi s , Fig. 3 shows a sensi i i y analysis on ou is s’ cos (𝜖) and s akeholde s’ cos (𝛾) when ha ing di e en popula ion densi ies (𝜌), by also compa - ing he dynamics wi h and wi hou mig a ion. Values o he hea maps show he inal equency o ou is s coope a o s 𝑓𝑇 𝐶 and s akeholde s coope a o s 𝑓𝑆𝐶 . F om Fig. 3 we can obse e how he esul s o high densi y alues (𝜌= 0.8) a e simila o he analy ical ou come o he well-mixed and in ini e popula ion shown in Appendix. When 𝛾 > 𝜖 − 1, pu e de ec ion is he expec ed s able s a egy o bo h ypes o playe s 𝑇 𝐶 and 𝑆𝐶. When 𝛾≤𝜖− 1, s akeholde s show high le els o coope a ion in he popula ion. In he la e case, he s able s a egy o ou is s depends on he speci ic ini ial condi ions. When mig a ion is in oduced, we a e a o ing mo e in e ac ions among ou is and s akeholde s by consequen ly elaxing he e ec o he ixed la ice. This gene a es wo clea egions wi h global co- ope a ing and de ec ing s a egies o s akeholde s, abo e and below he line 𝛾=𝜖− 1. Some combina ions o pa ame e s gene a e a ull coope a ion in he sub-popula ion o s akeholde s (𝑓𝑆𝐶 is 1). In con as , mig a ion is clea ly dec easing coope a ion o ou is s o di e en densi y alues. The e o e, when mig a ion is no induced, he bounda y be ween ha ing ei he coope a ing o de ec ing popula ions is smoo he o s akeholde s while inal equency o 𝑇 𝐶 is almos independen om he pa ame e s o he model and highe han when ha ing mig a ion. In o de o u he s udy he e ec s o he pa ame e s in he model, Fig. 4 shows he inal equency o coope a o s 𝑓𝑇 𝐶 and 𝑓𝑆𝐶 o a sensi i i y analysis on s akeholde s’ cos s (𝛾) and ou is discom o (𝜏). Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 6 M. Chica e al. Fig. 4. Final equency o 𝑇 𝐶 and 𝑆𝐶 o a sensi i i y analysis on 𝛾and 𝜏pa ame e s (𝜖= 1.2). We show ha low densi ies inc ease coope a ion in ou is s as well as educes pola iza ion in he esul s. The inclusion o mig a ion a o s he opposi e: highe pola iza ion in he esul s and a lowe ou is s’ coope a ion le el. We es di e en densi y alues 𝜌as done be o e, wi h and wi hou inducing mig a ion o ou is s. The esul s con i m ha he e ec o he ou is discom o is less signi ican han he o he pa ame e s, as shown in he analy ical s udy o he well-mixed popula ion in Appendix. Mo e impo an ly, we obse e he same insigh s wi h espec o he e ec s o densi ies and mig a ion in he inal equency o coope a o s o bo h sub-popula ions. We can summa ize he main obse a ions below: •When allowing mig a ion, esul s a e mo e pola ized han when mig a ion is no allowed and highe le els o coope a ion a e achie ed o s akeholde s. Howe e , coope a ion in he ou is s sub-popula ion (𝑓𝑇 𝐶 ) is dec eased wi h espec o no mig a ion. This phenomenon was also obse ed in Fig. 3. •Dec easing he popula ion densi y educes esul s’ pola iza ion as well as inc eases homogenei y in he esul s. S akeholde s a e he playe s ha ing he highes sensi i i y wi h espec o he pa ame e s’ alues and he inal coope a ion. Fo ins ance, when 𝜌= 0.8and mig a ion is induced, he e is a s eep and apid ansi ion om 𝑓𝑆𝐶 = 1 o 𝑓𝑆𝐶 = 0. •Tou is s ob ain highe le el o coope a ion when popula ion den- si ies a e low. The inal s able s a egy depends on he speci ic ini ial condi ions. The e o e, c owded popula ions inc ease he chances o ha ing de ec ing ou is s, apa om apidly mo ing om de ec ing o coope a ing s a es in he sub-popula ion o s akeholde s. 4.3. Spa ial o ma ion Fig. 5 shows he la ices a ime s eps 𝑡= 0 and 𝑡= 900 o he popula ion o playe s wi hou mig a ion and ull densi y. In addi ion, Fig. 6 shows he la ices o he same ime s eps 𝑡= 0 and 𝑡= 900 when ha ing mig a ion and 𝜌= {0.3,0.8}. Tou is s a e ep esen ed by ed cells (ligh ed o 𝑇 𝐶 and in ense ed o 𝑇 𝐷) while s akeholde s a e blue cells (ligh blue o 𝑆𝐶 and in ense blue o 𝑆𝐷). When he densi y o he popula ion is no ull, whi e cells a e acan cells. Fo all he cases we can see how, when showing he s a iona y s a e a 𝑡= 900, he e a e clea spa ial o ma ions o coope a o s and de ec o s o opposing oles. Coope a o s in he wo sub-popula ions a e joined in isola ed o weakly in e connec ed clus e s. The same spa ial disposi ion occu s o de ec o s in he wo popula ions. When including mig a ion, he coope a o s clus e s a e smalle and mo e isola ed, whe eas he de ec i e s a egy p edomina es. 5. Discussion We p esen in his sec ion he heo e ical implica ions o ou s udy in Sec ion 5.1, he p ac ical insigh s ob ained om he model in Sec- ion 5.2, and he limi a ions o ou wo k in Sec ion 5.3. 5.1. Theo e ical implica ions The e olu iona y game model p esen ed in his pape explains how he playe s’ beha io in he ou ism sys em ( ou is and s akeholde ) de e mines o e - ou ism in a ou is a ea. P e ious analyses ha e de- sc ibed mul iple causes o o e - ou ism, such as he i up ion o Ai bnb, low-cos ips and unsus ainable beha io (Koens e al.,2018;Goodwin, 2017). Howe e , he mechanism om which he des ina ion slides in o o e - ou ism has no been add essed in he scien i ic li e a u e ye . In his ega d, his pape a emp s o ep esen his mechanism by using a dynamic model whe e ou is and s akeholde in e ac in a spa ial s uc u e. P e ious applica ions o e olu iona y games ha analyze he adop- ion o sus ainable p ac ices in ou ism assume he exis ence o an exogenous incen i e o a o sus ainable p ac ices. Fo example, sub- sidies and penal ies o s akeholde (He e al.,2018;Wang e al., 2021b) o en i onmen al bonus o ou is (An oci e al.,2013). This kind o incen i es a e absen in ou model. Ins ead, he model de- sc ibes how sus ainable o unsus ainable ou ism can a ise om he economic and psychological condi ions o he playe s, wi hou any ex e nal in e en ion. Then, he model and i s esul s p esen an inno a i e ocus o he ques ion o sus ainabili y, showing he ac o s ha help o hinde Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 7 M. Chica e al. Fig. 5. La ices showing spa ial o ma ions wi h playe s o simila s a egies om 𝑡= 0 (le plo ) o 𝑡= 900 ( igh plo ) when ha ing ull densi y 𝜌= 1 and wi hou mig a ion. Colo s mean: ed (𝑇 𝐷); ligh ed (𝑇 𝐶); Blue (𝑆𝐷), ligh blue (𝑆𝐶). The es o pa ame e s a e 𝜇=,𝜖= 1.2,𝛾= 0.3,𝜏= 0.5. Fig. 6. La ices showing spa ial o ma ions wi h playe s o simila s a egies om 𝑡= 0 (le column) o 𝑡= 900 ( igh column) o 𝜌= {0.3,0.8} when allowing mig a ion. Colo s mean: ed (𝑇 𝐷); ligh ed (𝑇 𝐶); Blue (𝑆𝐷), ligh blue (𝑆𝐶), and whi e cells a e acan cells. The es o pa ame e s a e 𝜇=,𝜖= 1.2,𝛾= 0.3,𝜏= 0.5. Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 8 M. Chica e al. agen s ( ou is and s akeholde s) o adop sus ainable beha io . The indings p o ide use ul in o ma ion o esea che s and p ac i ione s abou he inne o ces ha lead o (un)sus ainable ou ism. Speci - ically, wo ele an indings can be ex ac ed om he simula ions o he model. Fi s , we show ha sus ainable ou ism p ima ily de- pends on he ela i e impo ance be ween e enue ma gin and cos s o s akeholde when o e ing a sus ainable p oduc , whe eas he ou is discom o wi h unsus ainable se ice does no play a majo ole. And second, we gene ally obse e ha educing he densi y and mig a ion o he popula ion o ou is s gene a es homogeneous ou come o di e se alues o he model’s pa ame e s such as ou is s and s akeholde s cos s o ou is discom o . In o he wo ds, long- e m o e - ou ism is mo e likely i he popula ion densi y and ou is mobili y in he des ina ion is high. Those p e ious indings de e mine a s a ing poin o u he ana- lyze he ac o s in luencing o e - ou ism in ou is ic a eas by including new eal-based condi ions o he model, such as ano he social s uc- u e and go e nmen al in e en ions. Mo eo e , al hough he model was applied o ou ism, i s de ini ion and esul s can be applied o o he simila phenomenon whe e in e ac ions be ween cus ome s and s akeholde s gene a e a sus ainabili y p oblem. 5.2. P ac ical implica ions The indings in his pape can be used o check he sui abili y o he policy measu es cu en ly implemen ed in ce ain des ina ions o man- age o e - ou ism, such as limi ing accommoda ion and se ice g ow h, banning ou is isi s, imposing highe ees and axes o ou is s, and egula ing ou is ’s beha io . Among hem, hose policies o ien ed o limi ou ism g ow h and p e en high a luence o ou is , conse- quen ly educing popula ion densi y in he des ina ion, a e alida ed by ou indings. In addi ion, measu es o discou age o a oid spa ial ou is mobili y will a o long- e m sus ainabili y as well. Howe e , egula ions o ien ed o inc ease cos s o ou is s, such as ees o axes, a e no jus i ied by ou esul s. Addi ionally, ou indings can be employed o p opose no el ecom- menda ions o help des ina ion manage s and decision make s when implemen ing sus ainable policies. The ou come o he model shows ha he elemen s go e ning he economic bene i and cos o ou ism s akeholde s a e he key ac o s explaining o e - ou ism, independen ly on o ces explaining ou is ’s decision. The e o e, manage s ha e o i s poin ac ions o inc ease s akeholde e enues ob ained wi h sus ain- able ou is p ac ices, such as hose espec ing local cul u e, p ese ing en i onmen and dis u bing he leas o he local li es yle. 5.3. Limi a ions This wo k p esen s some limi a ions. The phenomenon o o e - ou ism is complex and some aspec s a e no conside ed in his e o- lu iona y model. One o hese aspec s is ha he model only ocuses on ou is s and s akeholde s’ beha io , gi en aside o he e ec s d i ing o o e - ou ism, such as he en i onmen al condi ions. Mo eo e , we do no include he ea u es o he p oduc s o se ices o e ed by s akeholde s no he adap a ion o hei po olio o asse s o ou is s. 6. Concluding ema ks and u u e wo k The s udy we p esen he e models how o e - ou ism can a ise om he dynamic in e ac ions among ou is s and local s akeholde s. Playe s o he e olu iona y game om bo h oles decide a e e y ime s ep whe he ha ing a sus ainable o unsus ainable beha io and ob ain a pay-o om hese pai -wise in e ac ions. Then, he model includes a dynamic mechanism in he agen s’ beha io o achie e a long- e m si ua ion wi h o wi hou o e - ou ism. The model allows analyzing he in luence o some ac o s on achie ing long- e m sus ainable ou ism. Ou esul s show ha , in a eas wi h high ou is densi y, he ela i e alues be ween he bene i ma gin o coope a i e s akeholde s when in e ac ing wi h a sus ainable ou is and he cos o a ending a ou is de ec o de e mines he inal ou come. Thus, when he bene i ma gin is g ea e han he cos , a sus ainable si ua ion in he long e m is expec ed. The opposi e occu s i he bene i ma gin is lowe han he cos . O he ac o s, such as he ou is discom o and he added alues o ou is , play a lowe ole in sus ainabili y. The e ec o he spa ial mig a ion o mo emen s o he ou is s as well as popula ion ha e also been analyzed. The gene al inding is ha mig a ion and high densi y educes he gene al le els o coope a ion o ou is s while pola ize he esul s o he s akeholde s popula ion. In ac , coope a ion is bo h maximum and minimum o s akeholde s when ha ing high densi y and ou is s’ mig a ion. Finally, we also obse ed spa ial o ma ions in he la ice whe e we ind islands o bo h oles (i.e., ou is s and s akeholde s) ha ing he same s a egy. These esul s a e also ound when he densi y is dec eased and bo h wi h and wi hou mig a ion. Fu u e esea ch can be ex ended in di e en ways. Fi s , ewa ding policies (Chen e al.,2015) can be applied o one o bo h o he playe oles o he game o aid decision make s in hei ask o decide how hey con igu e hei incen i iza ion policies. Second, mo e ad anced mig a ion p ocesses, close o he ou ism eali y, can be inco po a ed in o he model. Finally, ano he in e es ing u u e pa h will be s udying a mo e gene al e olu iona y amewo k able o analyze and unde s and he e ec s o mig a ion p ocesses in asymme ic e olu iona y games. CRediT au ho ship con ibu ion s a emen Manuel Chica: So wa e, Me hodology, Valida ion, In es iga ion, W i ing – o iginal d a , Funding acquisi ion. Juan M. He nández: Concep ualiza ion, In es iga ion, Fo mal analysis, W i ing – o iginal d a . Ma jaž Pe c: Me hodology, Fo mal analysis, W i ing – e iew edi ing. Decla a ion o compe ing in e es The au ho s decla e ha hey ha e no known compe ing inan- cial in e es s o pe sonal ela ionships ha could ha e appea ed o in luence he wo k epo ed in his pape . Acknowledgmen s M.C. was suppo ed by he Spanish Minis y o Science, Andalusian Go e nmen , Uni e si y o G anada, and ERDF unde g an s SIMARK (P18-TP-4475), RYC-2016-19800, and PPJIA2020-09 (TURCOMPLEX). J.H. was suppo ed by he Uni e si y o Las Palmas de G an Cana ia, unde g an COVID-19 04. M.P. was suppo ed by he Slo enian Re- sea ch Agency (G an Nos. P1-0403 and J1-2457). Funding o open access cha ge: Uni e sidad de G anada/CBUA. Appendix He e we analyze he asymp o ic s able poin s o he bi-ma ix game wi h pay-o shown in Table 1, assuming a well-mixed in ini e popula ion. A simple algeb aic manipula ion o he pay-o ma ix leads o conclude ha double-de ec ion s a egy is a s ic Nash equilib ium (NE) i and only i 𝛾 > 𝜖 −1 and he e o e i is he asymp o ically s able s a egy (C essman and Tao,2014). To analyze he case 𝛾≤𝜖− 1, we make use o he eplica o equa ion (Ho baue and Sigmund,2003). Fi s , by adding con enien cons an s o he columns, we ans o m he pay-o ma ix in Table 1 in o wo squa e pay-o ma ices wi h diagonal e ms equal ze o, hey a e Jou nal o Cleane P oduc ion 355 (2022) 131662 9 M. Chica e al. 𝑇=(0 −𝜏 0 0 ), 𝑆 =(0𝜖−1−𝛾 −(𝜖− 1) 0 ). Ma ix 𝑇and 𝑆ha e he same eplica o equa ion han he pay-o ma ices o ou is s and s akeholde s, espec i ely. We no e 𝑥and 𝑦 he p opo ion o coope a o s in he ou is and s akeholde popula ion, espec i ely. I is clea ha 0≤{𝑥, 𝑦}≤1. Then, he dynamic e olu ion o hese a iables is go e ned by he ollowing di e en ial equa ions: 𝑥 = −𝜏𝑥(1 − 𝑥)(1 − 𝑦), 𝑦 =𝛾𝑦(1 − 𝑦)(𝜖−1−𝛾 𝛾+𝑥).(2) Gi en ha 𝜖−1−𝛾≥0, he equilib ium o es poin s o his sys em a e (𝑥1, 𝑦1) = (0,0),(𝑥2, 𝑦2) = (1,0) and he segmen o med by 𝑦= 1 and any alue 𝑥∈ [0,1]. Analyzing he Jacobian ma ix o he sys em (2), poin s (𝑥1, 𝑦1) = (0,0) and (𝑥2, 𝑦2) = (1,0) a e uns able. Howe e , any poin in he segmen 𝑦= 1 and 0≤𝑥≤1is s able. Then, hese in ini e poin s a e po en ial asymp o ic s able s a egies, which a e cha ac e ized by pu e coope a ion o s akeholde s and any coope a ion le el o ou is s. The speci ic asymp o ic s a egy o ou is s depends on he ini ial coope a ion le els in he wo popula ions. Re e ences Adami, C., Schossau, J., Hin ze, A., 2016. E olu iona y game heo y using agen -based me hods. Phys. Li e Re . 19, 1–26. An oci, A., Bo ghesi, S., Galeo i, M., 2013. En i onmen al op ions and echnological inno a ion: An e olu iona y game model. J. E ol. 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