The Dinamics of electoral competition in a modern society : models of Spanish voting behavior, 1979 and 1982

The Dynamics o Elec o al Compe i ion in a Mode n Socie y: Models o Spanish Vo ing Beha io , 1979 and 1982 Richa d GUNTHER Ohio S a e Uni e si y Wo king Pape n.28 Ba celona 1991 In an ea lie wo k, based p ima ily upon ou analysis o a 1979 su ey o Spanish o ing beha io (1), my colleagues and I se o h an in e p e a ion o he eme gence and e olu ion o he Spanish pa y sys em ha hea ily s essed he impo ance o indi idual pa y eli es in c ea ing ins i u ions, mobilizing clien eles and p ojec ing images o Spanish o e s. We ound ha hese eli e a iables in e ac ed wi h mass-le el ea u es o Spanish socie y in o en complica ed ways, and ha he na u e o his in e ac ion had o be analyzed in de ail in o de o gain a p ope unde s anding o he dynamics o pa isan compe i ion in Spain in he la e 1970s. Implici in ou a gumen was a much g ea e emphasis on eli e-le el ac o s han social-s uc u al de e minan s o he o e. The pu pose o his pape is o subjec ou ea lie a gumen s o igo ous mul i a ia e es s in an e o o de e mine i we we e co ec in s essing he impo ance o eli es o e mos social clea ages as he p incipal de e minan s o he shape o he Spanish pa y sys em. I is in ended o de e mine he s eng h o ou hypo heses when con olled o a wide (i no exhaus i e) a ie y o o he a iables. I will also p esen pa ial da a om ou 1982 su ey o upda e he a gumen , and o de e mine whe he he alidi y o ou a gumen s was unde mined in any signi ican way by he elec o al ea hquake o 1982. I will begin, he e o e, wi h a summa y es a emen o ou explana ion o o ing beha io in he 1979 elec ion, and will hen mo e on o b ie ly summa ize ou explana ion o he pa y-sys em es uc u ing o 1982. Finally, I will conclude wi h specula ions abou why Spanish o e s di e in se e al impo an espec s om o e s in o he Wes Eu opean socie ies, and how hese o ing pa e ns may be ega ded as ha binge s o he u u e o elec o al compe i ion in many mode n socie ies in he ele ision age. Success and Failu e in he 1977 and 1 979 Elec ions The ela i e success o ailu e o he ou majo Spanish pa ies in he i s wo democ a ic elec ions was, as se o h in Spain A e F anco, he p oduc o he con luence o se e al di e en ac o s. Fo he UCD, one majo ad an age was ha i was able o s ake ou o i sel a b oad segmen o he ideological con inuum nea he densely popula ed cen e o ha spec um. As has been epea edly demons a ed, mos Spanish o e s ega ded hemsel es as mode a es o he cen e -le . Indeed, when asked o loca e hemsel es on a en-poin le - igh con inuum (wi h 1 as ex eme le , 10 as ex eme igh , and 5.5 as he exac cen e o he scale) 39% o ou esponden s placed hemsel es a ei he posi ion 4 o 5, and a nea majo i y o esponden s su eyed (49%) we e loca ed in he h ee cen is posi ions, 4, 5 and 6. E en hough he UCD was pe cei ed as a igh -o -cen e pa y (i s mean posi ion on he en-poin scale, as seen by ou esponden s, was 6.4), pa y leade Adol o Suá ez success ully capi alized upon p og essi e e o ms enac ed unde his Go e nmen s be ween 1976 and 1978 ( he mos impo an being he ansi ion o democ acy, he w i ing o a Cons i u ion backed by a solid consensus, and enac men o iscal and o he e o ms) and he eby a ac ed o he UCD a la ge bloc o mode a e p og essi e o e s. Indeed, ou su ey da a e ealed ha he la ges bloc o UCD suppo e s we e hose who ega ded hemsel es in 1979 as jus o he le o cen e . The mean ideological sel loca ion o UCD o e s in ou sample was 5.9, which is e y close o he exac cen e o he le - igh con inuum. The ideological s ance o he UCD maximized i s elec o al appeal o a b oad a ay o mode a e o e s in ano he way as well: he composi ion o i s eli e e lec ed a coali ion among "poli ical amilies" which, in mos o he Wes e n Eu opean coun ies, make up e y sizable po ions o he elec o a e. The UCD was c ea ed h ough a me ge among Ch is ian democ a ic, social democ a ic and libe al g oups which had eme ged as a "mode a e opposi ion" o he F anquis egime in i s inal yea s. To his b oad coali ion o o ces was added a sizable componen o e o me s whose o igins we e wi hin he F anquis egime i sel , he mos impo an o whom was Adol o Suá ez. As a esul o his eli e he e ogenei y, he UCD was able o appeal o a wide a ie y o g oups: i s eclec ic "ideological" s ance could a ac Ch is ian democ a s, social democ a s and libe als no o men ion hose who did no wish o epudia e he o me egime ou igh bu wan ed o adap Spain's poli ical ins i u ions o g ea ly di e en ci cums ances h ough e olu iona y means (2). The elec o al clien ele o he UCD was he e ogeneous, in ano he way as well. The pa y explici ly de ined i sel as in e classis , and was qui e success ul in implemen ing i s campaign s a egies o a ac ing o e s om a wide a ie y o social s a a. The UCD also had o he impo an asse s. The isibili y and popula i y o Adol o Suá ez (pa icula ly in he a e ma h o he "Poli ics o consensus") was a cen al ea u e o he UCD's 1979 elec ion campaign, and ce ainly con ibu ed o i s ic o y in ha con es . Indeed, Suá ez was signi ican ly mo e popula among Spanish o e s han was his pa y: 35.3% o ou esponden s e alua ed Suá ez a o ably (by placing him a posi ion 7, 8, 9 o 10 on a eeling he mome e ), while only 29.2% we e ha a o ably disposed owa ds he UCD (3). Gi en his le el o popula i y, Suá ez was able o a ac o he UCD a sizable bloc o o e s who migh o he wise ha e suppo ed i al pa ies. As he pa y o Go e nmen in bo h he 1977 and 1979 elec ion campaigns, he UCD had o ganiza ional and inancial esou ces no a ailable o o he pa ies. Pe sonal ies o indi iduals who had wo ked o many yea s wi hin he Mo imien o o he F anquis sindica os ga e he UCD access o a p eexis ing in as uc u e in nea ly all p o inces ha mos o he pa ies lacked. This was pa icula ly impo an in he i s democ a ic elec ion, which emo ed om he poli ical scene mos o he UCD's poo ly o ganized Ch is ian democ a ic, social democ a ic and libe al i als nea he cen e o he poli ical spec um. Finally, gi en i s go e nmen al s a us and i s plu ali y in he Co es, i was able o secu e enac men o egula ions (conce ning he o ma ion o pa liamen a y g oups, e c.) and elec o al and campaign- inancing laws om which i bene i ed disp opo iona ely (4). The PSOE also did well in he i s wo elec ions, bu no as well as i had an icipa ed in 1979, and by no means as well as i did in 1982. One o i s p incipal ad an ages o e po en ial i als was i s basic ideological s ance: i s pe cei ed loca ion on he le - igh con inuum placed i close o he modal cen e -le po ion o he elec o a e han any o he pa y. The mean placemen on ha scale o he PSOE by ou esponden s (3.9) was less han a poin away om he mean o he sel -loca ions o he Spanish elec o a e sampled by ou su ey (4.7), and was signi ican ly close o he modal cen e -le bloc o o e s han was he UCD (6.4). In addi ion, he leade o he Socialis pa y, Felipe González, was you h ul, a ac i e and popula . Indeed, in he a e ma h o he 1979 elec ion, González and Suá ez we e bo h gi en a o able mean a ings o 5.5 on an ele en-poin " eeling he mome e " by ou esponden s. These e alua ions we e signi ican ly highe han hose o he leade s o he PCE and AP: he mean he mome e sco e o San iago Ca illo was 3.7, and Manuel F aga was placed a only 3.1 on ha same scale. The PSOE, which de ined i sel as a wo king-class pa y, was assis ed in i s e o s o win he suppo o wo ke s h ough he ac i i ies o i s a ilia ed ade union, he UGT. Bu by ede ining he concep o "wo king class" o include la ge segmen s o he middle and uppe -middle classes, i s leade s we e able o o mula e and implemen p edominan ly in e -classis elec o al s a egies. A inal ad an ageous cha ac e is ic o he PSOE was ha i was a membe o he Socialis In e na ional. Thus, pe sonal ies o p ominen Wes e n Eu opean poli ical leade s (mos impo an ly F ançois Mi e and and Willy B and ), as well as he elec o al and go e nmen al successes o socialis pa ies in o he coun ies, added o bo h he isibili y and p es ige o he PSOE, pa icula ly in he 1977 elec ion. In hose ea lie elec ions, howe e , he PSOE also had ce ain disad an ageous cha ac e is ics. In 1979 he mos signi ican o hese was i s sel -designa ion as a "Ma xis " pa y and i s e en ion o s eam-age e olu iona y he o ic in i s o mal ideological and p og amma ic s a emen s. This alleged e idence o PSOE adicalism was skill ully manipula ed by UCD leade s in he 1979 elec ion o igh en mode a e cen e -le o e s away om he Socialis pa y. Since only 15% o he o al Spanish elec o a e in 1979 iden i ied wi h he e m "Ma xism" (5), i is clea ha he o mal decla a ions adop ed a he 27 h pa y cong ess in 1976 would appeal o only a small segmen o he popula ion, and could epel many o e s. A leas pa ly as a esul o i s o mal ideological s ance, he PSOE did less well han he UCD in a ac ing suppo om ha la ges bloc o Spanish o e s jus o he le o cen e . These ideological commi men s also unde cu he pa y's campaign e o s o a ac a b oadly in e classis elec o a e. The PCE and AP we e in decidedly less ad an ageous posi ions, pa icula ly inso a as hey we e pe cei ed by o e s o be much a he han he UCD and PSOE om he modal cen e o he ideological spec um: hei mean loca ions on he le - igh con inuum, as pe cei ed by ou esponden s in 1979, we e 2.5 and 7.9, espec i ely. In addi ion, each o hem inhe i ed highly pola izing images om he pas . The PCE, howe e , had made g ea e o s o al e i s public image and enhance i s appeal o mo e mode a e o e s. I s ideology had been eo ien ed owa ds Eu ocommunism p io o he 1979 elec ion: he e m "Leninis " had been emo ed om i s ideological sel -designa ion, he closed "de o ee" cell s uc u e o he pa y had been eplaced by a mo e open "mass mobiliza ion" s yle, and he pa y pledged o espec he democ a ic ules-o - he-game unde he new egime. I s mode a e, es ained and cons uc i e beha io a e i s legaliza ion in 1977, mo eo e , wen a long way owa ds unde mining he demonic image inhe i ed om he pas . I was pa icula ly success ul in a oiding clashes wi h he Chu ch (despi e o e in e en ion by he Episcopal Con e ence agains le is pa ies in he 1979 elec ion campaign). This helped o a oid eac i a ing he eligious clea age in Spanish socie y which had been so di isi e in he pas . Rec ui men by he pa y o many p es igious in ellec uals, a is s, echnicians and libe al p o essionals also b oadened he pa y's appeal o many o e s. The ne esul o i s cons uc i e beha io du ing he cons i uen p ocess and o he mode a ion o i s campaign s a egies was an inc ease in he PCE's sha e o he o e om 9.2% in 1977 o 10.8% in he 1979 pa liamen a y elec ions. Finally, he PCE possessed one esou ce no sha ed by o he pa ies: as he p incipal pa y o clandes ine opposi ion o he o me egime he PCE had buil up a mass membe ship and a p o incial in as uc u e which g ea ly exceeded hose o o he pa ies, including he PSOE. This cons i u ed a signi ican elec o al esou ce, pa icula ly wi h ega d o he p o ision o olun ee labo du ing he campaign and he aising o he pa y's isibili y o he elec o a e. The g ea e deg ee o ins i u ionaliza ion (compa ed o he PSOE) which esul ed om decades o clandes ine opposi ion ac i i ies also ga e he Communis pa y a mo e s able o ganiza ional base du ing he ea ly and middle s ages o he ansi ion o democ acy, a mo e expe ienced and disciplined leade ship (a leas o e he sho e m), and a powe ul ade union ally: he Comisiones Ob e as. Alianza Popula also unde wen signi ican changes du ing he pe iod be ween he i s wo elec ions; bu hese we e mo e in he o m o has y epai s ollowing a majo disas e han o ca e ully concei ed inc emen al adjus men s. The s imulus o hese al e a ions was he comple e collapse o he o iginal AP eli e coali ion in he cou se o delibe a ions o e he new Cons i u ion. Manuel F aga and his immedia e collabo a o s had ese a ions abou some segmen s o he cons i u ional ex (pa icula ly conce ning decen aliza ion o he Spanish s a e and explici ecogni ion o he mul ina ional make-up o i s popula ion), bu he and he AP execu i e commi ee decided ha he in e es s o he coun y would bes be se ed by suppo ing ha documen in he Decembe 1978 e e endum. The mo e igh -wing membe s o i s pa liamen a y delega ion, howe e , e used o suppo he new Cons i u ion, and le he pa y in p o es . The depa u e om he AP o much o i s igh wing on he e y e e o he 1979 elec ions cons i u ed a majo c isis. Bu he emo al om i s leade ship o some p ominen igu es closely associa ed wi h F anquismo, whose commi men o democ acy was dubious, p esen ed F aga wi h an oppo uni y o modi y bo h he ideology and he, public image o he pa y. The esul was c ea ion o a new Coalición Democ á ica, o which AP would be he co e and he p incipal o ganiza ional in as uc u e, bu which would include a he highes le els ce ain new indi iduals whose commi men o democ acy was no suspec . All de ensi e e e ences o he F anquis pas we e expunged om he pa y's ideology and we e s udiously a oided in public s a emen s by he new coali ion's leade s. While he AP (CD) mo ed owa ds he "cen e " on ha pu ely poli ical dimension, howe e , he economic p og am o he AP mo ed a he same ime owa ds he neo-libe al igh . The co po a is componen o he ideologies (o "men ali ies") o he adi ional Spanish igh and o he o me egime, coupled wi h he p esence wi hin he AP's ounding eli e o some indi iduals (such as Licinio de la Fuen e) wi h quasi-populis alues and o he s (such as Lau eano López Rodó) who ega ded s a e in e en ion in he economy as posi i e, had led o he o mula ion o an o iginal AP ideology which included s a emen s a o ing a mo e equi able edis ibu ion o he na ional income, indica i e economic planning unde s a e guidance, and encou agemen o ag icul u al coope a i es, as well as an a ack on specula ion and monopoly (6). Following he c ea ion o Coalición Democ á ica, howe e , he economic p og am o Alianza Popula has ad anced a mo e "classical-libe al" o neo-libe al de ense o ee-ma ke capi alism and a educ ion in he economic ole o be pe o med by he s a e. O e all, howe e , o ma ion o he CD was ega ded by i s ounde s and by he p ess as a mo e away om he a igh : in he 1979 pa liamen a y campaign, in ac , CD desc ibed i sel as o he "cen e - igh ." Models o Vo ing Choice: 1979 In an e o o weigh he ela i e impac on o ing decisions o hese ac o s as well as o he s adi ionally analyzed in s udies o elec o al beha io , se e al ounds o mul i a ia e eg ession and P obi analyses we e conduc ed. This culmina ed in he c ea ion o a sepa a e causal diag am o suppo o each o he ou na ionwide pa ies. Included in he ini ial s ages o his analysis we e a wide a ie y o social s uc u al, demog aphic, con ex ual, o ganiza ional and a i udinal a iables. The ul ima e dependen a iable in he P obi analysis was o e o he pa y in ques ion in he 1979 elec ions. An impo an in e ening a iable in he eg ession analysis was a ec owa ds he poli ical pa y, as measu ed on an 11-poin eeling he mome e . In some espec s, his may be ega ded as a su oga e o a pa y iden i ica ion measu e. En e ed in o he p elimina y phases o his analysis as independen a iables we e he ollowing socio-economic, associa ional o demog aphic cha ac e is ics o each esponden : occupa ional s a us (objec i ely de ined), manual/nonmanual occupa ion, employee/sel -employed s a us, age, le el o educa ional a ainmen , conscious iden i ica ion as a membe o a social class, sel -placemen in a pa icula social class (subjec i e ca ego ies anging om "wo king class" o "uppe class"), membe ship in he Communis o Socialis ade unions - he CCOO and UGT, espec i ely- o eligious associa ion, sex, amily income, and deg ee o eligiosi y. The ollowing able measu es he s eng h o each bi a ia e ela ionship by p esen ing he co ela ion coe icien (Pea son's ) be ween hese a iables and he " eeling he mome e " e alua ion o each pa y. (Table 1) Table1 These igu es p oduce no su p ises conce ning he basic di ec ion o hese ela ionships: as one migh suspec , eligious esponden s and membe s o eligious associa ions ended mo e o suppo , pa ies o he cen e and igh ; membe s o Socialis and Communis ade unions a o ed Socialis and Communis pa ies; pe sons in manual o lowe -s a us occupa ions, hose who consciously iden i ied hemsel es as membe s o a social class, and especially hose who ega ded hemsel es as o he "wo king class," ended o suppo pa ies o he le ; women and olde o e s p e e ed pa ies o he cen e and igh ; and he wo mos success ul "ca ch-all" pa ies ( he UCD and PSOE) did be e han hei mo e ideologically ex eme i als ( he PCE and he AP) in a ac ing suppo om he less educa ed "ma ais" o he Spanish pa y sys em. Wha is mos no ewo hy is he ela i e s eng h o hese ela ionships when compa ed wi h one ano he and wi h o he kinds o a iables o be discussed below. The e is a mode a ely s ong link be ween pa isan p e e ence and eligiosi y o ade union associa ion. Bu he ela ionships be ween he mome e a ings o pa ies, on he one hand, and educa ion, sex and pa icula ly he objec i ely-de ined socioeconomic a iables, on he o he , a e a he weak. E en he s onges o he ze o-o de ela ionships in ol ing class- ela ed a iables (be ween subjec i e class membe ship and suppo o he PSOE, and be ween manual s. nonmanual occupa ion and suppo o he Socialis and Communis pa ies) "explain" only abou 2% o he a iance. In pa , his low le el o class pola iza ion o pa isan p e e ences can be a ibu ed o he success o he UCD and he PSOE in implemen ing hei "in e classis " elec o al appeals in he 1977 and 1979 elec ions. Wi h he d as ic decline o suppo o he UCD in he 1982 elec ion, he le el o class o ing in Spain (using Al o d's index) inc eased om 20 o 29 (7). Bu e en wi h his appa en inc ease in class pola iza ion o he o e, he le el o class o ing in Spain has emained ela i ely low, and ce ainly lowe han one migh suspec was he case du ing he highly pola ized pe iod o he Second Republic. As can be seen in Table 2, Spain's index o class o ing was (pa icula ly in 1979) qui e close o he mean igu e o Wes e n Eu opean democ acies, and signi ican ly below he le els epo ed o Scandina ian coun ies. Seymou Ma in Lipse has poin ed ou , "The mo e explici o ms o class consciousness ha exis ed in Eu ope seem o be on he decline, and class is much less impo an as a sou ce o poli ical s uggle han i once was" (8). The gene alized downwa d end in class o ing h oughou Wes e n Eu ope can clea ly be seen in Table 2. In his sense, he low le el o class o ing in Spain is a dis inc ly "mode n" ea u e o Spanish elec o al beha io . We shall e u n o his heme below. Table2 Se e al p o incial-le el en i onmen al a iables we e also included wi hin his analysis: he deg ee o u baniza ion o he p o ince, he le el o PCE and PSOE a ilia ion in he p o ince, a e age equency o a endance a mass on Sundays, and he pe cen ages o he o e cas in he 1936 elec ion o he PSOE, PCE and, mo e gene ally, pa ies o he le , he cen e and he igh (9). This analysis was in ended o examine, in a e y p elimina y manne , communi y o s uc u al in luences on he de elopmen o pa isan a i udes, as well as he impac o Socialis and Communis pa y o ganiza ion (c udely measu ed by he le el o pa y a ilia ion in each p o ince) on pa isanship. The bi a ia e ela ionship be ween hese en i onmen al ac o s and he he mome e a ings o he pa ies ollow: Table3 A ull unde s anding o he impac o en i onmen al and con ex ual in luences on pa isan p e e ence would equi e analysis a beyond he scope o his s udy. These da a en a i ely sugges , howe e , ha he na u e o possible en i onmen al and con ex ual in luences on pa isanship in 1979 acco ds wi h one's p io expec a ions and he indings o ea lie s udies (10). The Socialis and Communis pa ies a e mo e highly ega ded by esponden s in u ban, secula ized p o inces which had gi en elec o al suppo o pa ies o he le in 1936, and wi hin which he PCE had (by 1979) es ablished la ge b anches. One canno unde ake a se ious assessmen o he ac ual s eng h o hese ela ionships un il con ols o indi idual-le el ac o s a e imposed in he mul i a ia e analysis o ollow. Bu he weakness o he ze o-o de ela ionship be ween le els o PSOE a ilia ion in each p o ince and ou esponden s' a i udes owa ds he Socialis pa y gi es a p elimina y indica ion ha he PSOE's ecen elec o al successes a e no highly dependen upon he pa y's base o mili an s. The absence o a signi ican ela ionship be ween he PSOE's sha e o he o e in each p o ince in 1936 and p esen -day a i udes owa ds he pa y also sugges s (ce ain pocke s o ha dco e suppo o he pa y, such as Jaén, no wi hs anding) ha he e we e ew a eas whe e an explici ly Socialis pa isan adi ion was able o su i e he F anquis in e lude o ou decades o in luence con empo a y beha io . Indeed, o bo h he PSOE and he PCE, he e is a s onge ela ionship wi h he o e all le el o suppo in 1936 o pa ies o he le in he agg ega e han he e is wi h o es in 1936 o each espec i e pa y. This would seem o sugges ha , a he han a speci ic pa isan p edisposi ion, wha may ha e been "inhe i ed" om he Second Republic was a ague p e e ence o pa ies o he le : be hey Socialis o Communis . O he da a p o ide u he e idence ha he e a o he Second Republic and he Ci il Wa con inues o exe some in luence on Spanish poli ical beha io . One i em in he 1979 ques ionnai e asked esponden s which side mos o hei amily had suppo ed du ing he Ci il Wa ( he Na ionalis s, he Republicans, nei he o bo h). Responses o ha ques ion a e s ongly associa ed wi h se e al measu es o pa isan p e e ence. Suppo o he F anquis o Na ionalis side, o example, co ela es wi h posi i e a ec owa ds he conse a i e Coalición Democ á ica (AP) a .39, wi h a a o able a i ude owa ds he UCD a .37, and wi h hos ili y owa ds he PSOE and PCE ( =-.20 and -.31 espec i ely). As he ollowing pa h analysis will indica e, he imposi ion o nume ous con ols speci ies bu does no subs an ially educe his ela ionship. Clea ly consis en wi h ou ea lie emphasis upon he impo ance o gene al ideological compa ibili y and he pe sonal appeal o pa y leade s as de e minan s o pa isanship, he wo a iables mos s ongly associa ed wi h a i udes owa ds he a ious pa ies a e he he mome e a ings o each pa y's leade and dis ance be ween he esponden 's sel loca ion on he le - igh con inuum and his/he placemen o each pa y. The "ideological p oximi y" a iable co ela ed a .56 wi h he he mome e a ing o he PCE, .45 wi h a ec owa ds he PSOE, and .61 wi h he he mome e sco es o bo h he UCD and AP. Also consis en wi h ou ea lie analysis, co ela ions be ween he mome e e alua ions o each pa y and i s leade we e e en s onge : .71 be ween San iago Ca illo and he PCE; .68 be ween Felipe González and he PSOE; .76 be ween Adol o Suá ez and he UCD; and .61 be ween Manuel F aga and he AP. A mul i a ia e analysis gi es a be e es ima e o causal ela ionships han he ze o-o de co ela ions p esen ed abo e. Bu in addi ion, since he elec o al impac o many a iables (especially he social-s uc u al, demog aphic and Among social s uc u al a iables, only eligiosi y and membe ship in ei he he Communis o Socialis ade unions ( he CCOO and he UGT, espec i ely) had a consis en and subs an ial impac on he mo e o e ly poli ical a i udinal o beha io al i ems unde analysis he e. T ade unions did, indeed, unc ion as " ansmission bel s" in channeling suppo owa ds hei espec i e pa ies (16). And e en hough he Chu ch and eligious seconda y associa ions we e no explici ly linked o any poli ical pa y, eligious Spania ds ended o suppo pa ies on he igh o cen e (17). These wo social-s uc u al "ancho s" o pa isanship in Spain, howe e , ha e diminished in signi icance since he i s wo democ a ic elec ions, as we shall see below. The Elec o al Ea hquake o 1982 In 1982, he Spanish pa y sys em unde wen a es uc u ing o massi e p opo ions. The go e ning UCD su e ed pe haps he single g ea es elec o al disas e e e o be all a con empo a y Wes e n Eu opean Pa y: i s sha e o he o al o e plunged om 35% o 6%, and i s delega ion in he Cong ess o Depu ies sh ank om 168 o 11. The PCE los o e 80% o i s delega ion in he Cong ess o Depu ies and won only ou sea s. The magni ude o he Socialis ic o y in 1982 was almos equally d ama ic: he PSOE nea ly doubled i s sha e o pa liamen a y sea s o 202 ou o 350. And he AP su ged om ou h place among na ionwide pa ies o become he leading pa y o opposi ion, wi h i s delega ion in he Cong ess inc easing om 9 depu ies in 1979 o 107. Wha explaines his high le el o elec o al ola ili y, and wha does his es uc u ing o he pa y sys em imply o he alidi y o he in e p e a ion o o ing beha io se o h abo e? One migh specula e ha his high le el o ola ili y was no hing mo e han a consequence o he ecency o c ea ion o he Spanish pa y sys em, ha s abilizing pa y loyal ies simply did no ha e su icien ime o de elop, and pa isan alignmen s did no ha e su icien ime o " eeze" (18). This is almos ce ainly co ec , bu i is a bes only a pa ial explana ion. As can be seen in Table 4, he le el o ola ili y exhibi ed by he Spanish elec o a e in 1982 was d ama ically highe han ha seen in any o he o he "new" pa y sys ems which eme ged in wes e n indus ialized coun ies ollowing he Second Wo ld Wa . In ha able I ha e compa ed he Spanish elec ion o 1982 wi h he mos ex eme example o high elec o al u no e displayed by each o he pa y sys ems which eme ged in Japan, Wes Ge many and I aly in he a e ma h o WWII, and wo wi h mo e ecen cases o edemoc a iza ion: Po ugal and G eece. Fo illus a i e pu poses, I ha e also included he case o F ance, which be ween 1956 and 1958 expe ienced a change in i s elec o al law, he collapse o a pa liamen a y egime and i s eplacemen by a semi-p esiden ial sys em, and he eme gence on he scene o a cha isma ic igu e in en on subs an ially al e ing he na u e o pa isan poli ics. As can be seen, none o hese cases came close o he ola ile beha io o he Spanish elec o a e in 1982. Why was Spain di e en ? Was his high le el o ola ili y simply a p oduc o he ecency o ebi h o pa isan compe i ion, in which case, we could ega d an examina ion o Spain as a look back in o he pas his o ies o democ a ic pa y sys ems c ea ed in he 19 h o ea ly 20 h cen u ies? Table4 To some ex en , one mus acknowledge ha his high le el o ola ili y was he p oduc o he absence o s abilizing psychological ies be ween pa ies and o e s, which some s udies ha e indica ed may ake a gene a ion o mo e o de elop (19). E idence suppo ing his line o easoning may be seen in some o he wo k by Ba nes, McDonough and López Pina (20). The panel design o hei ea lie esea ch pe mi ed hem o moni o he e olu ion o pa y iden i ica ion among hei esponden s. The ex emely low le el o s able pa isan a achmen s du ing he i s i e yea s o Spanish democ acy is e ealed in hei inding ha only 16% o hei esponden s ( s. 67% o a compa able panel s udy o Ame ican o e s) iden i ied wi h he same pa y in bo h he 1978 and 1980 wa es o hei panel su ey. Acco dingly, hey cha ac e ized he Spanish pa y sys em as exis ing in a s a e o "p ealignmen " a he ime o hei s udy (21). Le els o pa isan iden i ica ion ha e appa en ly inc eased in subsequen yea s. A mo e ecen panel s udy, in ol ing ein e iews wi h 175 o ou 1982 su ey esponden s, e ealed ha he le el o psychological a achmen o Spain's pa ies had inc eased somewha du ing he ollowing decade: 26% o hose indi iduals iden i ied wi h he same pa y in bo h 1982 and 1988 (22). Bu despi e his g ow h in pa isanship, he Spanish elec o a e con inued o lag a behind o he Wes e n democ acies in i s agg ega e le el o s able pa isan alignmen : much highe le els o s able pa isanship ( anging om wo o h ee imes highe ) ha e been obse ed in ecen panel indings om B i ain, Ge many and he Ne he lands (23). And ecen Eu oba ome e su ey da a using a common "pa y a achmen " i em in all 12 EC membe coun ies e ealed ha in ea ly 1989 a mo e Spania ds claimed o be "close o no pa y" han ci izens o any o he EC membe coun y (24). Al hough we lack da a conce ning he le el o s able pa isan a achmen s among Spanish o e s a he ime o he 1982 elec ion, e idence sugges s ha he agg ega e le el o such loyal ies was almos ce ainly lowe han in olde , mo e es ablished democ acies. Bu he e is also e idence sugges ing ha i would be misleading o ega d Spain as me ely an example o a pa y sys em in an ea ly s age o de elopmen . A mo e de ailed analysis sugges s ha Spain exhibi s many cha ac e is ics o decidedly "mode n" poli ical sys ems. Le us begin his mo e de ailed examina ion by compa ing da a om he 1979 and 1982 elec ions o de e mine i he indings p esen ed in he i s hal o his pape we e s ill alid in 1982. We e he high le el o pe sonaliza ion o elec o al poli ics and he low le el o social-s uc u al ancho ing o pa isan poli ics in he 1979 elec ion me ely a i ac s o ha pa icula elec ion, o a e hey endu ing ea u es o he Spanish pa y sys em o e ime? E idence sugges s ha , by 1982 a leas , he same se s o a iables ha had been he s onges p edic o s o he o e in he ea lie elec ion emained he s onges , and ha he e we e ew signi ican changes in he s eng hs o he ele an ela ionships. Table 5 p esen s he esul s o P obi analyses o o ing in 1979 and in 1982. Table5 The i e a iables ha bes explained he decision o o e o he PSOE in 1979 we e also he only i e a iables ha we e signi ican ly ela ed o choosing he PSOE in 1982. The s eng h o he ela ionships be ween he independen and dependen a iables, mo eo e , we e qui e compa able (25), al hough membe ship in he UGT appea s o ha e weakened signi ican ly as a de e minan o he o e. I is impo an o no e ha no o he independen a iables had any signi ican ela ionship wi h he decision o o e o he PSOE - i.e., none had an M.L.E./S.E. g ea e han 3.0. The e we e some mino changes be ween 1979 and 1982 wi h ega d o decisions o o e o he UCD and he PCE (see Tables 6 and 7), bu hese e lec ed a weakening o social-s uc u al ancho ing o hose pa isan choices, and ac ually s eng hen ou a gumen abou he impo ance o "leade ship" as a de e minan o he o e in Spain. Table6 Table7 In bo h he cases o he PCE and he UCD, he mos signi ican change be ween 1979 and 1982 was he subs an ial decline in he o e-mobilizing abili y o he pa y leade . Indeed, his inding om a mul i a ia e analysis i s well wi h o he da a -published elsewhe e (26)- indica ing ha he p incipal cause o he collapse o suppo o bo h pa ies was he p o ac ed se ies o leade ship s uggles ha had b oken ou o e he yea o wo p eceding he elec ion. Con idence in he abili y o go e n o bo h pa ies eli es declined d as ically, and he a ac i eness o he leade o he pa y a he ime o he 1982 elec ion was g ea ly educed. This is e lec ed in he da a p esen ed abo e. Those da a also e eal ha each o he social-s uc u al and o ganiza ional co ela es o pa isan suppo ( eligiosi y, CCOO membe ship, age and he le el o PCE a ilia ion wi hin each p o ince) declined du ing his pe iod. This inding, coupled wi h he absence o o he signi ican ela ionships be ween he o ing choice and an exhaus i e a ay o social-s uc u al a iables en e ed in o he P obi equa ions a a ious s ages, ein o ces ou ea lie conclusions abou he impo ance o pe sonalism and he ela i e weakness o social-s uc u al co ela es o pa isan suppo . This pa e n is mos clea ly e ealed in an examina ion o elec o al suppo o he CDS, as can be seen in Table 8. Table8 Since he CDS was o med as a di ec esul o Adol o Suá ez's abandonmen o he UCD in 1982, i is no su p ising o ind ha h ee o he ou s onges p edic o s o he o e o he CDS we e p e ious o e o he UCD, a posi i e e alua ion o Suá ez, and a nega i e e alua ion o his successo , Landelino La illa, "Closeness" o he CDS and p oximi y o he CDS on he le - igh scale we e he only wo o he signi ican p edic o s o he o e o he CDS in 1982. A p obi analysis o o ing suppo o he AP, howe e , e eals some indica ions o change in he opposi e di ec ion, as can be seen in Table 9. I should be no ed a he ou se ha one sou ce o he di e ences be ween 1979 and 1982 is an a i ac o he su ey p ocess i sel : as López Pin o and o he s ha e poin ed ou , su ey esul s (especially hose conduc ed p io o 1982) included a signi ican "hidden o e" o AP, ha is, many esponden s e used o admi ha hey we e AP suppo e s (27). Ob iously, his disingenuous e bal esponse would dep ess he o e all le el o explained a iance. By 1982, a ewe esponden s we e unwilling o admi ha hey had suppo ed he AP (28); hence, he pe cen age o explained a iance is inc eased qui e subs an ially. This me hodological ca ea no wi hs anding, some signs o eal change a e appa en in hese da a. The mos s iking inding is ha he le el o AP membe ship in he p o ince eme ged om his analysis as a signi ican p edic o o he o e, as can be seen in equa ion 1982a. Bu how is his o be in e p e ed? One migh con end ha he ela ionship be ween AP membe ship and he p opensi y o o e o F aga's pa y is spu ious, o is "s anding in" o some o he causal ela ionship. Some o he en i onmen al o con ex ual ac o (such as a gene al ambience suppo i e o AP wi hin he p o ince) could be esponsible o bo h. As a means o es ing his ela ionship, I in oduced a a ie y o con ex ual a iables in o he equa ion, only one o which ela ed signi ican ly o he decision o cas a ballo o AP in 1982. As can be seen in equa ion 1982b, he in oduc ion o a a iable ep esen ing he pe cen age o he o e ecei ed in each p o ince by he AP in 1979 sligh ly educed he s eng h o his ela ionship, indica ing ha a gene al clima e o suppo i e opinion may ha e con ibu ed o bo h he o ing choice and a high le el o AP o ganiza ional de elopmen in a p o ince. Bu he ela ionship be ween he o e all le el o AP membe ship in each p o ince (s anda dized as a pe cen age o he elec o al census) emains signi ican . This would seem o imply ha AP was de eloping an o ganiza ional in as uc u e, inc easingly able o make a con ibu ion o he pa y's elec o al o unes by mobilizing o e s. This su ey inding also i s wi h changes in he agg ega e le el o o ganiza ional s eng h o he AP: pa y o icials epo ed in in-dep h in e iews ha membe ship (which had o alled only 18,435 in Feb ua y, 1981) apidly inc eased h oughou 1982. Since his p ocess o o ganiza ional g ow h has con inued unaba ed up o he p esen ( eaching o e 261,000 by No embe , 1989), one is emp ed o specula e ha he AP has made g ea s ides in de eloping an o ganiza ional basis o i s elec o al ac i i ies. I should also be no ed ha he social basis o suppo o he AP among indi iduals o uppe occupa ional s a us emained i m h oughou his pe iod, while i s hold on o e s o he igh o cen e inc eased eno mously. The s abili y o he o e o AP in he 1986 and 1989 elec ions may be a p oduc o his a i udinal and, o a lesse ex en , social-s uc u al ancho ing o i s base o suppo . In his espec , he AP elec o a e s ands in con as wi h hose o he o he majo na ionwide pa ies. Table9 The o e all conclusion o be de i ed om his compa ison o 1979 and 1982 mul i a ia e analyses o Spanish o ing beha io is ha ou o iginal emphasis on leade ship a iables, and ou indings conce ning he ela i ely weak social ancho ing o pa isanship, we e as alid in he ea ly 1980s as hey we e in he 1970s. Ob iously, a ei e a ion o his analysis using su ey and con ex ual da a om he la e 1980s and ea ly 1990s would be desi able as a means o moni o ing he e olu ion o pa isanship wi hin he Spanish elec o a e. A Specula i e In e p e a ion How can we bes explain his a ie y o pa isanship. Why is i ha he images o pa y leade s a e such powe ul p edic o s o he o e, while he social bases o pa isanship we e weak and ( o all pa ies excep he AP) declining in impo ance be ween 1979 and 1982? Answe s o hese ques ions canno come om analysis o su ey da a alone, bu equi e an o e all unde s anding o undamen al changes in Spanish socie y du ing his pe iod. We ound in ou analysis o 1979 su ey da a ha wo social-s uc u al ea u es we e signi ican ly ela ed o o ing beha io – ade union membe ship and eligiosi y- bu ha by 1982 hese ela ionships had begun o decline in elec o al impo ance. Why? As can be seen in Table 10, ade union membe ship -which had ne e been pa icula ly high when seen in compa a i e pe spec i e- declined p ecipi ously a e he 1979 elec ion. Thus, e en hough he Socialis and Communis pa ies con inued o bene i elec o ally om he ac i i ies o hei allied unions, he deg ee o pene a ion in o Spanish socie y and, hence, he o e-mobilizing o o e-s abilizing abili y, o hose labo o ganiza ions had been subs an ially educed. Table10 Simila ly, he po en ial poli ical in luence o he Chu ch has declined in ecen yea s. Spanish socie y has been unde going a p ocess o secula iza ion o d ama ic p opo ions. In a 1976 su ey, 56% o hose in e iewed claimed o be " e y good Ca holics" o "p ac icing Ca holics"; by he ime o he 1982 elec ion, only 37% desc ibed hemsel es in ha manne ; and by he ollowing yea , ha igu e had allen o 31% (29). Con e sely, du ing his same pe iod he pe cen age o Spania ds desc ibing hemsel es as "non-p ac icing", "indi e en " o "a heis " inc eased om 17% in 1976, o 33% in 1982, o 45% in 1983 (30). Beha io al measu es o eligiosi y e eal he same pa e n o decline: be ween 1973 and 1985 he pe cen age o Spania ds who claimed o a end chu ch "Sundays and/o a ious days du ing he week" o "almos e e y Sunday" declined om 78% o 28%, while hose who said "ne e " inc eased om 13% o 37% (31). No only has he o e all le el o eligious p ac ice declined, bu a subs an ial majo i y o Spania ds belie e ha Chu ch in e en ion in poli ics would be imp ope . Da a om a 1984 su ey unde aken by he Cen o de In es igaciones Sociológicas showed ha only 17% o Spania ds in e iewed ag eed wi h he s a emen ha "The Chu ch should suppo in elec ions hose candida es and poli ical pa ies which bes de end i s ideas and in e es s;" 63% disag eed. Simila ly, 67% disag eed wi h he s a emen ha "The Chu ch should ac i ely pa icipa e in poli ics in o de o imp o e he mo ali y o public li e;" only 12% ag eed (32). One clue o he ex emely high le el o ola ili y o he Spanish elec o a e exhibi ed in 1982 lies in he absence o s abilizing linkages be ween poli ical pa ies and suppo i e seconda y o ganiza ions. Ba nes, e al, ha e poin ed ou ha he exis ence o close links be ween subjec i e o objec i e poli ical in e es s and pa icula social classes o o he g oups migh speed up he o ma ion o ies be ween indi iduals and pa ies. In ac , social pa isanship migh lead o s able elec o al pa e ns e en wi hou he g ow h o pa y ies, in ha he social cues ecei ed om union o chu ch sou ces, o e en simply om class iden i ica ion in some si ua ions, migh be su icien o gi e o de o o ing wi hou he de elopmen o s ong indi idual-le el iden i ica ion wi h poli ical pa ies. T ade union, eligious and class cues, and possibly o he ac o s, ha e seemed o encou age s able o ing in Ge many, Aus ia and I aly, o example, wi hou co espondingly high le els o pa y a achmen (33). Analyses o Spanish o ing beha io in 1979 and 1982, howe e , ha e sugges ed ha hese social-s uc u al "ancho s" o pa isanship we e ei he ini ially weak, o ha e become weake in ecen yea s. Mos objec i e and subjec i e indica o s o class posi ion we e ne e closely linked o pa isan choice, and hose social s uc u al ea u es ha we e ( eligion and ade union a ilia ion) ha e declined in hei abili y o s abilize pa isan alignmen s. In pa , his has esul ed om he secula iza ion o Spanish socie y. In pa , his may e lec a adi ionally weak and unde eloped s uc u e o seconda y associa ions in Spanish socie y (34). Bu o ou pu poses, he mos impo an poin is ha nei he he social s uc u al no he, psychological (pa y iden i ica ion) oo s o s able pa isanship we e deeply implan ed wi hin he Spanish elec o a e ollowing he 1979 elec ion. The absence o s able pa y iden i ica ion in 1979 did no dis inguish Spain om he o he "new" pa y sys ems which ha e eme ged ollowing he Second Wo ld Wa . The absence o well-de eloped eligious and o he seconda y o ganiza ions, howe e , does appea o ha e been a signi ican di e ence be ween he pa y-building p ocess in Spain and ha which occu ed in pos -wa Eu ope and Japan. This may be pa o he explana ion o he g ea e ola ili y o he Spanish elec o a e exhibi ed in 1982 han was cha ac e is ic o he Ge man, I alian o Japanese pos wa expe iences. The much mo e ex ensi e eligious in as uc u es in I aly and Wes Ge many ce ainly cons i u ed s able bases o suppo o he eme ging Ch is ian democ a ic pa ies o hose coun ies. The con inued exis ence o adi ional ies be ween local no ables and he sizable bloc o o e s in u al Japan ollowing he Second Wo ld Wa appea s o ha e been an impo an sou ce o elec o al s abili y (35); compa able caciquil ela ionships had anished om all bu a ew u al a eas in Galicia, Andalucía and Old Cas ile by he ime o he 1979 elec ions in Spain (36). Indeed, ou da a sugges ha local no ables we e i ually in isible o mos o e s in he 1982 elec ion. When asked o name he head o he lis o which hey had o ed, 84% o hose esiding in he p o ince o Mad id (whe e he head o he lis was also he na ional pa y leade ) esponded co ec ly. This igu e eached 90% among Communis o e s and, mos su p isingly, 88% among UCD o e s (despi e he ac ha Landelino La illa had jus become i ula leade o his pa y jus a ew mon hs p io o he elec ion. In p o inces ou side o Mad id (excep o Ca alunya and Euskadi), howe e , ewe han one o e ou o i e could co ec ly name he head o he los o which he o she had o ed. Among UCD o e s in he p o inces only 10% could espond co ec ly. Only in Euskadi and Ca alunya could mo e han a hi d co ec ly name he head o he p o incial lis . (We shall specula e abou he o igins o his inding below.) Di e ences be ween elec o al beha io in Spain and ha seen ea lie in coun ies democ a ized in he immedia e a e ma h o he Second Wo ld Wa may be ela ed o he ac ha he new Spanish pa y sys em was being c ea ed in a mo e mode n, a luen socie y, wi hin which na ionwide sys ems o mass communica ion we e ully de eloped. Compa ed wi h I aly and Japan sho ly a e he wa , o ins ance, he Spanish economy oday is much mo e de eloped. As can be seen in Table 11, he s uc u e o he Spanish labo o ce e ol ed e y apidly du ing he wo decades p eceding democ a iza ion. Du ing o sho ly a e hei espec i e pe iods o democ a iza ion, 42 pe cen o he I alian labo o ce (in 1952) and 45 pe cen o Japanese wo ke s (1950) we e s ill ac i e in ag icul u e (37). In sha p con as , by 1982 nea ly 48% o Spain's labo o ce was employed in he se ice sec o o he economy. Table11 Accompanying his economic de elopmen was a p ocess o u baniza ion which has no only mean ha p esen -day Spain is mo e u banized han pos -wa I aly, i is also sligh ly mo e u banized han p esen -day I aly: in a 9-coun y s udy unde aken by Jean S oe zel, e al, Spain's composi e "u baniza ion" sco e (188, o a maximum possible sco e o 300) was qui e close o he Wes Eu opean a e age in 1982 (195); and Spain was mo e u banized han Belgium (169), The Ne he lands (172) and I aly (182) (38). Le els o a luence ha e inc eased d ama ically in ecen yea s. Be ween 1958 and 1980 he pe cen age o amily income consumed by expendi u es on ood, clo hing and housing dec eased om 74% o 55%. Thi y- i e pe cen o amily income is now spen on aca ions and o he disc e iona y i ems (39). And by 1980, o e 90% o households had a leas one ele ision se -up om 32% in jus ou een yea s (40). Associa ed wi h his a luence has been a conside able imp o emen in public heal h, die and li ing condi ions, as e lec ed in low mo ali y a es and a long a e age li e-span. Indeed, on his dimension Spain anks abo e he a e age o all indus ial socie ies: he a e age Spanish li e-span o 76.6 yea s is almos h ee yea s longe han he a e age o de eloped coun ies (73.7); and Spain anks ahead o such coun ies as Canada and he Ne he lands (76.5 yea s), Aus alia and No way (76.3), F ance (75.9), Wes Ge many (75.8), I aly (75.5), he Uni ed S a es (75.0) and Belgium (74.3). In e ms o li e expec ancy, Spain ails behind only Sweden (77.1 yea s), Iceland (77.4), Swi ze land (77.6) and Japan (79.1) (41). An explo a ion o elec o al beha io in Spain, hen, is clea ly a s udy o pa isan compe i ion in a new pa y sys em c ea ed wi hin a highly mode n and ela i ely a luen socie y. In his ega d, he de elopmen o pa isanship in pos -F anco Spain is decidedly di e en om ha which was cha ac e is ic o democ a iza ion in o he Wes Eu opean coun ies in he la e 19 h and ea ly 20 h cen u ies, when class clea ages we e deepe , when local no ables s ill wielded in luence o e la ge u al, ag icul u al sec o s o he popula ion, and when he social policies and public image o Ca holic Chu ch had no ye been al e ed by Va ican Council II. The de elopmen o pa isanship in Spain has also been p o oundly a ec ed by ele ision, which was i ually non-exis en a he ime when o he pa y sys ems we e being b ough in o being. Indeed, hese pa e ns o Spanish pa isanship a e mos easily in e p e ed in ligh o he basic sou ces o poli ical in o ma ion a ailable o mos Spania ds. We ha e seen ha local eli es, a e ela i ely unknown o mos o e s. In acco d wi h his line o a gumen , local-le el news media a e qui e poo ly de eloped in Spain. Tele ision was (un il e y ecen ly) en i ely con olled om Mad id, and local and egional news was no anywhe e nea as ex ensi ely co e ed as ( o . example) in he Uni ed S a es, whe e poli icians ha e s ong bases o local suppo . Local o egional newspape s a e also no as signi ican sou ces o poli ical in o ma ion as in he Uni ed S a es, whe e he as majo i y o newspape s pu chased a e local, no na ionwide. In 1982, he a e age daily ci cula ion o all local and egional newspape s combined (excluding Mad id, Euskadi and Ca alunya) was jus o e 1 million (42). This mean ha only one local o egional newspape was sold o e e y 17 esiden s in hese o he p o inces o Spain o e he age o 15 (43). I only one pe son we e o ead each local newspape sold, his would limi exposu e o news abou local poli icians o less han 6% o he adul popula ion. E en i each newspape we e ead by h ee o e en ou di e en pe sons, only a small mino i y o he "p o incial" popula ion o Spain was exposed o news abou local poli ics. The widesp ead lack o amilia i y wi h he leade s o p o incial pa y lis s i s well wi h his inding. So, oo, do he egional excep ions o his gene al pa e n. Many egional o local eli es a e highly isible wi hin Ca alunya and Euskadi, pa icula ly leade s o Ca alan and Basque na ionalis pa ies. No acciden ally, egional newspape s (one o which, La Vangua dia, has he second-la ges daily ci cula ion in all o Spain) a e much mo e in luen ial han hei equi alen s in o he pa s o Spain. A e age daily sales o he i e la ges Ca alan newspape s (o e 422,000 in 1982) amoun o one pape o e e y en pe sons esiding in Ca alunya: his ep esen s a le el o pene a ion in o he egional newspape ma ke nea ly wice as g ea as ha achie ed by local o egional pape s in he es o Spain (44). And he i e la ges Basque newspape s sell almos one daily o e e y six inhabi an s o Euskadi (45). Pe haps mo e impo an ly, egional ele ision was es ablished i s and has been mos ex ensi ely de eloped in hese wo a eas. Spain's "quali y" newspape s do an excellen job o p esen ing a la ge olume o de ailed in o ma ion abou poli ics, economics and social p oblems o hei eade s. Newspape s such as El País and La Vangua dia a e a leas as good he e y bes Ame ican newspape s, and hey p esen a much la ge olume o news on a daily basis han hei B i ish coun e pa s. And he weekly news jou nal Cambio 16 (despi e i s occasional sensa ionalism and lapses o objec i i y) is close o The Economis in e ms o de ailed co e age o Poli ical and economic news han i is o ei he Time o Newsweek. And ye we I ha e demons a ed elsewhe e (46), mos o e s we e no p ima ily mo i a ed by issues in he 1982 elec ion (no , o ha ma e , in 1986). The solu ion o his puzzle is ound in he ci cula ion igu es o "quali y" newspape s in Spain. In 1982, he i e "quali y" newspape s wi h na ionwide o a leas widesp ead ci cula ion sold an a e age o jus 827,000 pe day (a numbe equi alen o 4.8% o Spain's o al popula ion o e he age o 15) (47). I we add o his igu e sales o local newspape s (i.e., aking in o accoun sales o all newspape s, local and na ional), we ind ha in 1982 he e was only one newspape sold o e e y 14 Spania ds o e he age o 15. In acco d wi h hese agg ega e da a, a massi e su ey unde aken by he Minis y o Cul u e in 1978 e ealed ha only 22% o Spania ds claimed o ead a newspape o magazine e e y day; ano he 12% said ha hey ead such publica ions se e al imes a week; and 9% said ha hey ead newspape s o magazines abou once a week (48). Whe e, hen, do people ge poli ical in o ma ion? A leas in pa om wo media no no mally known o hei de ailed p obing in o he complexi ies o policy issues wha may be euphemis ically called "popula " magazines and ele ision. In sha p con as wi h ci cula ion da a pe aining o he "quali y" p ess a e sales igu es o popula magazines, many o which o en ha e a icles conce ning p ominen pe sonali ies in poli ics. Some a e o ien ed owa ds men (such as In e iu, which ea u es nude cen e olds alongside in e iews wi h poli icians), while o he s a e clea ly women's magazines (such as Hola!, which ea u es ex ensi e a icles on la ish pa ies a ended by p ominen Spania ds and he in e na ional je se ). While i would be an in imida ing ask o a emp a poli ical-con en analysis o he 150 magazines published weekly in Spain, he me e ac ha magazine sales (excluding Cambio 16, which sold only 170,000 copies pe week in 1982) amoun ed o o e 9.5 million copies pe week -o e en imes he daily sales o quali y newspape s and i e imes he ci cula ion o all newspape s combined-sugges s ha la ge numbe s o Spania ds may be de i ing hei e alua ions o key poli ical igu es om he equi alen o People magazine. E en mo e s iking a e da a conce ning ele ision iewing. The same Minis y o Cul u e s udy which ound ha only 22% o Spania ds ead a newspape o magazine e e y day also ound ha in 1978 (when owne ship o ele ision se s was signi ican ly below cu en le els) 80% o Spania ds wa ched ele ision e e y day. Whe eas o e hal o hose in e iewed admi ed ha hey "ne e " ead newspape s o magazines, only 8% said ha hey "ne e " wa ched ele ision (49). The poli ical ele ance o hese da a is e ealed in su ey indings o Ba nes, e al, who disco e ed ha in 1984 46% o hose in e iewed "o en" ollowed poli ical news on ele ision o adio, and ano he 28% some imes did so; a he same ime only 23% o en and 19% some imes ead abou poli ical news in newspape s (50). The g ea impo ance o a ec owa ds na ional-le el pa y leade s as de e minan s o he o e in Spain also i s wi h hese da a. I has o en been no ed ha ele ision ends o pe sonalize poli ical news, while i does a poo job o con eying o he iewe a signi ican olume o in o ma ion abou policies and issues. One ecen su ey o he li e a u e on mass communica ions concludes ha "People Figu e2 Figu e3 Figu e4 Table4 Table5 Table6 Table7 Table8 Table9 Table10