Non-voting in Catalonia

Non- o ing in Ca alonia Joan FONT Uni e si a Au ònoma de Ba celona Wo king Pape n.75 Ba celona 1993 This pape aims o p esen a b ie app oach o non- o ing in Ca alonia. I s de elopmen will be hal way be ween a case s udy and a wide e lec ion on he issue. Tha is o say ha al hough ocusing discussions and examples on he ea u es o Ca alan non o ing, many o he subjec s a osen and some o he hypo heses laid seek o ha e a much mo e gene al alidi y. The pape is s uc u ed in h ee sec ions: in he i s one we will y o gi e a gene al diagnose o he subjec by analysing Ca alan non- o ing om a compa a i e pe spec i e, looking a di e en ia ed beha iou s depending on he elec ion le el and on esponses o he poli ical con ex . We will emphasize he un inished cha ac e o he explana ions o each o hese phenomena. In he second sec ion we will summa ize some o he mos basic e idences on he subjec ha ha e been poin ed ou by elec o al geog aphy and sociology in Ca alonia, which will help us o de ine some o he necessa y explana o y elemen s. Finally, he las sec ion will con ain some hypo heses and e lec ions. We shall p esen he e he main componen s ha we hink should con o m an explana o y model o non- o ing, and will b ie ly discuss his beha iou 's a ionali y and i s poli ical impo ance. 1. Some basic ac s A i s clea cha ac e is ic o non- o ing in Ca alonia and Spain is ha , in he adi ionally called " i s o de " elec ions i eaches ela i ely high le els in compa ison wi h Eu ope. Table 1 shows u nou means o 17 Eu opean coun ies as well as o Spain's 17 Au onomous Communi ies (o Regions). We can app ecia e ha e en he mos pa icipa i e Region has a highe non- o ing a e han he Eu opean mean, bu we can also see ha he e a e qui e a ew egions wi h highe o e u nou a es han F ance, he Uni ed Kingdom o I eland. I is no he case o Ca alonia: his is he six h Spanish Communi ie acco ding o he highes non- o ing a e, only su passed in Eu ope by he excep ional case o Swi ze land. Gi en he adi ional in e p e a ion, associa ing highe non o ing a es wi h less u banized and de eloped a eas (1), his hie a chy is su p ising since Ca alonia is one o he i s Spanish a eas acco ding o bo h indica o s. Howe e , eali y has su icien ly shown ha pa icipa ion ankings canno be explained h ough a unique cause, ei he a Eu opean o Spanish le el, and e en less by such a mechanicis a gumen (2). Local o egional elec ions a e di icul o compa e in e na ionally, gi en bo h di e si y in he coincidences o di e en le el elec ions as well as e y i egula powe dis ibu ions among each coun y's adminis a ions. Besides, a he Spanish le el, he ac ha Regional elec ions a e held simul aneously wi h Local elec ions in 13 Regions makes any compa ison o non- o ing a es wi h he Ca alan case isky. Thus, in a non-compa a i e pe spec i e, he mos clea e idence is he con inui y o he adi ional ule by which u nou a es a e highes in i s o de elec ions (Rei , 1985). Beyond his ac , i seems di icul o s a e any hing else han he appa en endency o local elec ions o occupy he second place in high u nou a es, and he pa icula ly low pa icipa i e cha ac e o he unique Eu opean elec ion held on i s own (1989). Which a e he easons o his o de ing o pa icipa ion in ensi ies? I he phenomenon o highe non- o ing in second o de elec ions has al eady been enough explained, he di e en deg ees o pa icipa ion in hem is qui e an unsol ed p oblem. Is o ing highe in hose seemingly mo e ele an elec ions? In he ones whe e mo e powe ul adminis a ions -o ha manage mo e unds-a e elec ed? O , inally, people do o e mo e when go e nmen s ha a e seen as close and mo e likely o be ecep i e o ci izen's demands a e elec ed? 42% o Ca alan people say ha elec ions o he Spanish Pa liamen a e he mos ele an , in on o 17% ha hink ha he mos impo an a e o he Ca alan Pa liamen . Only 8% a ibu es his cha ac e o local elec ions (Fon , 1991). These da a could well be ela ed wi h he budge dis ibu ion among he di e en Spanish adminis a ions, al hough i is qui e isky o y o es ablish any causal ela ionship. On he o he side, al hough lacking da a limi ed o Ca alonia, we mus ake in o accoun ha Spania ds see own councils as he ins i u ion ha in luences mos hei daily li e, as he mos in e es ing o hem, as he le el mo e likely o be in luenceable by hem(3) o as he mos us able one (Mon e o, 1989). The combina ion o all hese ac o s, besides a en ion paid o each elec o al campaign in he media, he mobilizing e o s done in each case by pa ies, as well as he gene al poli ical clima e -mo e o less compe i i e and/o encou aging and mo e o less c i ical o hope ul wi h poli ical ac o s-, allow us o explain bo h, he usual o de ings and luc ua ions and he excep ions ha u nou a es end o su e . The abo e men ioned ac o s in oduce us in o he las gene al elemen ha dese es o be men ioned. Ca alonia is no an excep ion in i s non- o ing e olu ion, e y sensible o he poli ical momen 's phenomena. Changes in o e s u nou ha e always gone in pa allel wi h hose e idenced in he Spanish case (Fon , 1991). Bo h Ca alonia and Spain ha e su e ed excep ional luc ua ions in non- o ing a es - e y unusual in hei size in ecen Eu opean poli ical li e- (Mon e o, 1990). The mos impo an changes ela e o he e y excep ional ci cums ances o 1977 and 1982. Howe e , e en i we exclude hese wo cases, we s ill can ind sudden changes in pa icipa ion le els no usual in ou con ex . Fo ins ance, be ween he 1987 local elec ions and he ollowing ones in 1991, wi hou any signi ican change in he poli ical si ua ion o he pa y sys em, o ing alls en poin s in Ca alonia. Howe e , as in he p e ious case, i is easie o s a e he ac han o explain i , especially i we aim o isola e he ac o s ha may eally con ibu e o unde s and his e olu ion. The elec ion's compe i i eness is one o he mos usual a gumen s in non- o ing s udies(4). Bu i we in e p e compe i i eness as he dis ance be ween he wo i s poli ical o ces, no hing explains he e olu ion o pa icipa ion be ween 1977 and 1979 o be ween 1982 and 1986. Be ween he i s wo elec ions he main pa ies did no su e big changes in hei o e pe cen age, while non- o ing inc eased abou 10 poin s. In he second pai o elec ions, di e gence be ween heo y and eali y is s ill la ge since while he main pa ies ended o ge close , o ing also dec eased no ably. Change expec a ions ha e been one o he mos used elemen s o explain he unusually high u nou o 1982 (Mon e o, 1986). I we unde s and hem as he possibili y o a change o go e nmen , he a gumen is again weak in espec wi h he 1979 elec ion, when high non- o ing coincided wi h he esul s' unce ain y(5). The desi abili y o change could be a mo e use ul de ini ion, al hough s ill di icul o suppo wi h su icien da a. In conclusion, he diagnose o non- o ing in Ca alonia sha es elemen s o peculia i y (low u nou ) wi h o he s o no mali y (di e en non- o ing le els acco ding o he ype o elec ions, as well as sensi i i y o he poli ical momen ). To unde s and hem, we only coun on some clues and hypo heses, bo h gene al and b oadly de ined. Ca alonia is no unusual in he ac ha explana ions o i s non- o ing a e no easy and go necessa ily h ough he combina ion o di e en causal elemen s. 2. Some app oaches Two o he main adi ional ways o in e p e a ion o elec o al beha iou can b ing some ligh o unde s and non- o ing: elec o al geog aphy and sociology. The i s one con ibu es by p esen ing maps o he pa icipa i e in ensi y, he main ea u es o which ha e changed li le in hese i een yea s o elec ions. Ca alonia's mos in e io s ip appea s as one o he a eas wi h highe non- o ing a es, coinciding enough wi h hose less popula ed and mo e adi ional coun ies, om he Le idan Py enees o he Eb o i e almos wi hou in e up ion. In many elec ions, bu pa icula ly in he egional ones, a second a ea wi h highes non o ing a es -and wi h e y di e en poli ical and socioeconomic cha ac e is ics-, comes o join he o me g oup: Ba celona's me opoli an a ea. Tendencies ollowed by each o hese a eas a e nei he clea no linea . Fi s ly, we mus conside ha he 50% o he Ca alan popula ion li ing in Ba celona's a ea has no go an homogeneous beha iou . Thus, non- o ing e olu ion in Ba celona mus a leas be analysed in wo di e en g oups, he capi al and i s me opoli an su oundings. These wo a eas ha e ollowed e y di e en pa hs. In he i s elec ions he capi al was one o he a eas wi h highes non- o ing, while a e 1982 i s u nou a es ha e been highe han he me opoli an a ea's (Table 2). Besides, compa ison o hese a eas wi h he es o Ca alonia also shows i egula endencies which can only be explained om mul icausal pe spec i es ha conside bo h, he di e en popula ions o each o hese a eas and hei poli ical ideli y -and hus he di e en answe s hey will gi e o changes in he poli ical momen - We will ha e o ake also in o accoun such ac o s as he in e ac ion be ween ype o habi a and ype o elec ion o he unequal impac o possible p oblems in he elec o al oll. Fo ins ance, in he i s local elec ions he highes u nou was ha o Ba celona's me opoli an a ea. Fou yea s la e his a e jus inc eased in wo poin s, while in he ci y o Ba celona i inc eased up o hi een poin s and in he es o Ca alonia almos 19. Wha does explain such di e en endencies? P obably hese di e en e olu ions a e somehow ela ed wi h he clea ic o y o he le e e ywhe e, bu pa icula ly in Ba celona's me opoli an a ea, wi h he s ill sca ce pa y build-up in many a eas o he non-me opoli an Ca alonia o wi h possible p oblems in he elec o al oll in he Ca alan capi al in he elec ions p e ious o 1982 (6). As ano he example, he deepening pa icipa i e di e ences be ween Ba celona's su oundings and he es o Ca alonia in egional elec ions canno be explained wi hou aking in o accoun he popula ion cha ac e is ics o he i s a ea (mos ly wo king-class immig a ion om Spain's Sou he n egions), as well as he consolida ion o he elec o al hegemony o a go e nmen coali ion (CiU) which does no ep esen his g oup's in e es s in Ca alan poli ics. I hus seems ha elec o al sociology may con ibu e wi h new elemen s o unde s and ou objec o s udy and i s dis ibu ion in ime and space. Gene ally speaking, mos non- o ing g oups in Ca alonia a e no e y a om Lipse 's classical cha ac e iza ion (1987): he you h and he old, as well as immig an s, less educa ed o wo king class people o e less. Howe e , he compa ison o p o iles o hose who did no o e in di e en elec ions will p e en us om alling in any sociological de e minism. Changes in he di e ences' in ensi y be ween hese g oups and he es o he popula ion, he disappea ance o some o hem in ce ain con ex s o he eme gence o new non o e s' g oups in ce ain elec ions will make clea he unexis ance o any simplis ic ela ion be ween social posi ion and poli ical beha iou . We will p esen a i s example wi h he mos us able exis ing da a, hose ob ained om ep esen a i e samples o he elec o al oll (7). In he ci y o Ba celona, non- o ing inc eases almos 5 poin s be ween he 1988 egional elec ions and he 1991 local ones. Bu hese di e ences concen a e among e y speci ic g oups (Table 3): 6 poin s among he younges and jus 1 among people olde han 50; i does no a y among hose wi hou p ima y s udies and ises 5 poin s among people wi h Uni e si y educa ion; i ises 7 poin s among people who w i e in Ca alan and alls 4 among non-Ca alan speake s. In sho , while some o he al eady exis ing di e ences in 1988 g ow (as he case o age), o he s disappea (place o o igin) o diminish (educa ional le el o knowledge o he Ca alan language). These e olu ions al eady show ha he ela ion be ween social s uc u e and elec o al beha iou is no an easy one. Many o he changes jus desc ibed can be explained by he speci ic cha ac e and di e en ia ed esul s o egional elec ions in Ca alonia (8). Howe e , e en in he same ype o elec ions we ind di e en answe s o he ci cums ances. Fo ins ance, be ween he 1984 and 1988 egional elec ions non- o ing a es inc ease in he whole e i o y, bu pa icula ly among he mos educa ed g oups -s uden s o manage s- while hey all o do no a y among he old, he unemployed, o he people wi h lowes educa ion le els (Fon , 1991). I he 1984 non o e s' p o iles we e mo e simila o Lipse 's classical po ai , in 1988 -an elec ion wi h an announced winne -, non o e s' p o iles ade away as li le poli icized social g oups ha usually o e s ayed a home. Bu hese a ia ions in non- o ing p o iles a e no ei he an exclusi e phenomenon o he Ca alan case. Al hough he e a e some g oups ha end o o e mo e han o he s, in ensi ies o hese di e ences will be qui e di e se acco ding o he poli ical con ex and momen in he Spanish, he F ench o he Ame ican case. Socioeconomic inequali ies cha ac e is ic o he capi alis sys em will end o ep oduce in he poli ical sphe e in he o m o di e en u nou a es. Bu he ansla ion o hese inequali ies in o e y o li le di e en ia ed beha iou in acco dance wi h age, class, gende o eligion g oup will essen ially depend upon each o hese g oups' poli ical ep esen a ion. The ac ha pa icipa i e di e ences be ween classes a e pa icula ly sca ce in Sweden and specially high in he USA is no a p oduc o chance bu o he in e en ion's capabili y ha he wo king classes o each o hese wo coun ies has had in hei espec i e poli ical li e (Bu nham, 1980). I is no by chance, ei he , ha he F ench you h o e mo e in he i s ound o elec ions, when g een candida es a e p esen (Pe che on, 1985) o ha Ge many, wi h a g een pa y pa icula ly add essed o he young popula ion, is whe e pa icipa i e di e ences acco ding o age appea o be smalle . 3. Some conclusions A i s clea conclusion o all he commen s al eady made is ha non- o ing equi es a mul icausal and complex explana ion which will ha e o include e y di e se elemen s: i will be essen ial o ake in o accoun sociological and ins i u ional ac o s, he elec o al ma ke ole and he cha ac e is ics o poli ical con lic . Figu e 1 shows a possible a emp o summa izing hese elemen s in an explana o y model ha we ha e de eloped, and o a g ea ex en e i ied, in a longe s udy (9). B ie ly, we hink ha any a emp o explain non- o ing needs 6 comp ehensi e elemen s: he indi idual's social posi ion, his gene al poli ical a i udes, he social con ex whe e she/he li es, he ole o he main poli ical ac o s, he his o ic si ua ion and he speci ic poli ical momen (Figu e 1). These elemen s do no ope a e in a chao ic and simul aneous way on he decision o o e o non o e (S ai s, 1990). As i seems ob ious, he close cha ac e is ics o an indi idual and olun a y beha iou as o ing will also be hose ha ul il hese condi ions: poli ical a i udes. I we con ine ou sel es o conside ing non- o ing as a dependen a iable and all he o he ac o s as equal explana o y elemen s, i could well be ha hey added li le, s a is ically speaking, o a i udes con ibu ion. Howe e , hese a i udes ha e no been c ea ed in a acuum. To limi ou sel es o analysing hem could mean going li le beyond au ology. Asse ing ha people do no o e because hey a e no in e es ed o ha e no poli ical iden i ica ions is li e ally ue bu subs an i ely li le in o ma i e. Thus, s ill in he indi idual domain, we mus look o pa o poli ical pe cep ions oo s in he indi idual social cha ac e is ics and all he in e es s, iden i ica ions o in e p e a ions o he wo ld ha i b ings abou (Hea h e al, 1985). In addi ion, o sea ch he explana ion o poli ical beha iou s in exclusi ely indi idual ac o s is an a leas insu icien s a egy. Iden ical posi ions acco ding o social classes, age o eligious g oups will gene a e di e en pe cep ions o poli ics depending on he social con ex whe e one li es. Al hough poli ical ac o s could in ac be conside ed as pa o his con ex , we hink ha hei essen ial ole jus i ies an independen analysis. They a e no only an elemen o he con ex ha will in luence a i udes' o ma ion bu may also wo k in p eelec o al momen s and, wi hou al e ing a i udes, mobilize ci izens mo e o less e icien ly. None o hese ela ions is ne e heless o a de e minan kind. Al hough he ac ha young people o ing less is a egula enough phenomenon, his is no a p oduc o any necessa y ela ion. Which a e he impo an sociological clea ages o unde s and non- o ing will depend on he s uc u e o poli ical con lic in each speci ic socie y. Tha is o say, social posi ions will ansla e in o a i udes shaped by a speci ic his o ical si ua ion. Social ela ions and poli ical ins i u ions will make class- e e ences and o he sociological iden i ies mo e o less de e minan , depending on he coun y, o unde s and poli ical a i udes and, h ough hem, elec o al pa icipa ion. A he same ime, poli ical a i udes do no change ab up ly. Al hough hey may be in a pe manen ede ini ion, hei essen ial guidelines keep qui e cons an along ime. On he con a y, we ha e seen ha u nou does e ol e qui e quickly. Indeed, ansla ion o poli ical pe cep ions in o beha iou s is nei he au oma ic, bu depends on he poli ical momen . The speci ic poli ical ci cums ances will p o oke ha people mo e o less in e es ed o wi h a mo e o less in ense iden i ica ion wi h poli ical ac o s ge ou o o e o no . Ca alan people in e es in poli ics did no inc ease signi ican ly be ween 1979 and 1982: i was he di e en poli ical momen which b ough o o e e en hose less in e es ed. Conside a ion o all hese elemen s in any explana o y model o non- o ing seems o us one o he i s essen ial s eps o unde s and he phenomenon. By o de ing hem app op ia ely we will be able o see ha all o hem a e impo an , e en hough hei con ibu ion o he di ec explana ion o he decision o o e o no is e y di e en (10). Two inal e lec ions seem impo an o us. Fi s ly, om many o he abo e men ioned conside a ions clea ly esul s he image o non- o ing as a a ional and unde s andable phenomenon. I s e olu ion does no depend on a e bu on he changing ela ions be ween socie y and poli ics. Tu nou a es a e an answe o he condi ions o each pa icula poli ical si ua ion. Ca alan people o e mo e a he mo e decisi e elec ions o o elec mo e powe ul ins i u ions. The g oups ha eel mo e p o agonis o be e ep esen ed on he poli ical a ena a e also hose who o e mo e in ensely. Bu he ac ha o ing is a a ional answe o poli ical ci cums ances does no mean ha i is done on s ic ly u ili a ian e ms. Conside ing o e as a ci ic du y s ill cons i u es a necessa y ool o unde s and why in many elec ions a majo i y o people o e, and nei he pa y-iden i ica ions no he pe cei ed closeness o compe i ion appea o ac in s ic e ms o expec ed gains. Las ly, i is wo hwhile o ques ion ou sel es on he eal impo ance o he high non- o ing a e e i ied in he Ca alan case. The i s answe is no heo e ically ele an , bu i ma e s in a coun y whe e he goodness o social and poli ical phenomena is judged acco ding o hei Eu opeanism. I we accep ed his c i e ion, we should clea ly ha e o answe ha Ca alan non- o ing is no Eu opean. Consequen ly, i mus become one o he ocus o hose who u n all Eu opeanism's ea u es in o hei poli ical goal. As usual, he answe o which is he ele ance o non- o ing will depend on he pa adigm we s a om: i is a wo ying ac om he democ a ic heo y ha builds om a ci izens' pa icipa ion p esump ion, as i is om he new Ca holic ca hechism. I s consequences may be less clea i we pu all he s ess on poli ical s abili y (11). Las ly, i wha in e es s us is democ acy's ole as a sys em o egula e poli ical con lic he answe will o ce us o e u n o non- o ing's social dis ibu ion. A somewha sca ce bu socially dis ibu ed pa icipa ion would be, om his s and-poin less wo ying han a highe absolu e le el which implied in p ac ice he exclusion o a ele an pa icula g oup o he coun y's elec o al li e. I is qui e un hinkable ha his g oup would s op ha ing poli ical demands. And, i hey a e no ep esen ed a he poli ical ins i u ions, hese would lose hei egula o y capabili y and con lic would ha e o be sol ed in o he a enas. Table1