Document [original]

Driving forces and barriers for

adaption strategies against the urban

heat stress hazard in Berlin, Germany

vorgelegt von

Dipl.-Ing. Landschaftsplanung

Julie Donner

geb. in Berlin

von der Fakult¨

at VI - Planen Bauen Umwelt

der Technischen Universit¨

at Berlin

zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades

Doktorin der Ingenieurwissenschaften

- Dr.-Ing. -

genehmigte Dissertation

Promotionsausschuss:

Vorsitzende: Prof. Dr. Undine Giseke

Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Johann K¨

oppel

Gutachterin: Prof. Dr. Miranda A. Schreurs

Gutachterin: Prof. Dr. Birgit Kleinschmit

Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 25. Januar 2018

Berlin, 2018

Author’s Declaration

I hereby state that this dissertation has been prepared without illegal assistance.

This work is original except where indicated by special reference in the text. No

part of this dissertation has been submitted for any other degree and it has not been

presented to any other University for examination, neither in Germany nor any other

country. The information on own contributions in co-authorship is accurate.

Hiermit versichere ich, dass ich die vorliegende Arbeit selbst¨

andig verfasst und keine

anderen als die angegebenen Quellen und Hilfsmittel benutzt habe.

Die aus anderen ver¨

offentlichten oder nicht ver¨

offentlichten Schriften w¨

ortlich oder

sinngem¨

aß ¨

ubernommenen Gedanken sowie Tabellen und Abbildungen, sind als

solche kenntlich gemacht. Die Arbeit hat in gleicher oder ¨

ahnlicher Fassung noch

keiner anderen Pr¨

ufungsbeh¨

orde vorgelegen. Die Angaben zu den Eigenanteilen bei

Co-Autorenschaft sind zutreffend.

Berlin, 05.07.2018 Signature

Acknowledgements

Without the diverse support and excellent boundary conditions, my conclusion would

certainly be completely different. Therefore I would like to express my gratitude to all

those who supported me throughout the time. I would like to thank my supervisors

Prof. Dr. K¨

oppel, Prof. Dr. Schreurs, Prof. Dr. Kleinschmit and Prof. Dr. Giseke.

First and foremost, I want to give special thanks to my mentor, Prof. Dr. Johann

K¨

oppel. This work would not have been possible without his support, guidance,

valuable discussions, and trust in me and the topic of adaptation strategies to climate

change. Thank you, Prof. Dr. K¨

oppel, for the chance you gave me and for the

wonderful time at your Environmental Assessment & Planning Research Group.

I want to thank Prof. Dr. Miranda Schreurs for her support and the freedom she

gave me to follow my work. Her consistent encouragement and positive comments

were especially helpful.

My heartfelt thanks go to Nicole Mahlkow. She has been a very important colleague,

friend, and discussion partner. Together, we undertook the challenge of a PhD thesis

during the UCaHS project, and she was an invaluable ally during this time.

Furthermore, I want to recognize my colleagues at the research group at the TU

Berlin. Their openness and helpfulness created a wonderful working atmosphere and

led to many useful discussions about manuscripts. My special thanks go to Lisa,

Marija, Verena, Nora, Juliana, and Kimberly. Additionally, I want to thank Kristin

for making most of the GIS figures used in this text.

I am grateful for financial support from the German Research Foundation (DFG).

This thesis was part of the Research Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and Heat Stress in

mid-latitude cities in view of climate change” (www.UCaHS.org) (KO 2952/2-1).

Special thanks go to my family for their support and trust in me. Thanks, especially,

to my husband Henrik for your interest in my work, for your constructive comments,

and as well for layouting my thesis. I also credit my son, Manuel and my daughter,

Elena, with giving me the strength to finish this PhD Thesis.

Last but not least I would like to give many thanks to my interviewees. Without

their expert knowledge, their time, and their willingness to answer my questions this

PhD thesis could not have been written.

Abstract

Climate change is here and mitigation efforts will not be enough to stop it. We need

to adapt to its unavoidable impacts. At the same time, increasing anthropogenic

influence on urban climates is leading to worsening urban heat stress. Increased

amounts of impervious area, dark surfaces, and the barrier effect of large buildings

reduce the ability of especially dense, inner-city areas to cool themselves. The effects

of climate change inside the city can vary greatly across different neighborhoods.

This is due to the diverse micro- and macroclimates within a city and their unique

ecological and meteorological conditions. Urban heat islands, for example, can exhibit

temperatures up to four or five Kelvin (

) hotter than surrounding regions and,

therefore, threaten the health and the lives of urban citizens. Three quarters of

Europeans live in cities. Nevertheless, despite intensifying attention to the issues of

heat stress and climate adaptation, Carbon Dioxide (CO

) reduction remains the

primary focus of public policy. Whether cities are ready to take on the challenge of

responding to these threats is a significant concern for the future.

Germany is known for having numerous regulations, laws, programs, and institutions;

and the situation surrounding climate change is no different. Whether and how all

these legal and organizational features are used in practice and to what extent they

further the success of adaptation work needs more investigation. In the framework of

the German Research Foundation Research program 1736 Urban Climate and Heat

Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (UCaHS), this work focuses,

specifically on the treatment of these efforts in urban planning, specifically related to

landscape, environmental, and land-use planning. It remains the case that planning

and public policy lack an adequate body of knowledge about how to tackle urban heat

stress, both legally and in the built environment. The administrative structure, legal

context, and actions of major stakeholders were analyzed to help identify possible

heat stress prevention and adaptation strategies, as well as the driving forces for and

obstacles to their implementation. The climate adaptation plans of all German major

cities and cities with a population density of

2000 residents/km2

and a population

of at least

200,000

were evaluated to help illuminate how adaptation measures for

heat stress have been implemented. Results showed a clear trend: despite the

advancements made through the recent adoption of so many climate-related plans

and programs, the movement towards adaptation to climate change is still cutting

its teeth. Mitigation is still favored over real adaptation. Among the adaptation

strategies that were chosen, so called ‘no regret’ strategies like greening or unsealing

were preferred, i.e., those that were economically, ecologically, and socially useful,

III

independent of their connection to climate change.

Our study area, Berlin, was chosen as the best city for a case study about the role of

climate adaptation plans in the implementation of adaptation measures. Berlin is Ger-

many’s most populous city and is well-suited to the study because of its characteristic

heterogeneity. To identify the driving forces and barriers for adaptation measures,

we used Constellation Analysis and Bayesian Network methodologies. Constellation

Analysis helps bridging interdisciplinary borders, incorporating all actors (persons or

groups), symbols (laws or guidelines), institutions, and other elements (like green

roofs or fa¸cade greening) in a system and depicting their relationships. To identify

the set screws and the likelihood for the implementation of adaptation measures, we

used Bayesian Networks. In order to gain the necessary knowledge for these methods,

semi structured expert interviews and workshops were conducted in addition to

document analysis.

In order to investigate the role of adaptation plans at the various planning levels,

the City Climate Development Plan of Berlin (StEP Klima) was analyzed as an

example. Constellation Analysis showed that connections between the different

actors, institutions, and tools involved in adaptation planning and implementation

are still inadequate. It also highlighted the individual block level as the planning

stage most relevant for the implementation of adaptation measures. In a further step

and in cooperation with the Research Module 3.2 and 5.1 of the Urban Climate and

Heat Stress (UCaHS) Projekt, three scenarios were prepared using the constellation

analysis.

1. A scenario with little political attention for the reduction of urban heat.

2. A scenario with political focus on the city center.

3. A scenario with political efforts for heat reduction for the entire city.

The aim was to develop governance storylines in order to identify possible ways of

dealing with urban heat. These enable decision-makers to look into the future and,

thus, to adjust their behavior.

In previous analyses, the local land-use plan level was seen as the most relevant for

the implementation of adaptation measures. This leads to the question of whether

adaptation concerns can successfully gain hold in urban planning and land-use plans.

How will these measures be implemented? Urban and environmental planning play a

vital role in this process. Bayesian Network analysis was used to explore the likelihood

of the development of climate-adapted local land-use plans. This method depicts

initial systems and the likelihood of certain outcomes in order to define networks

of probabilities. The process relied on expert opinions gathered in numerous semi

structured interviews at all levels with the Berlin stakeholders who are involved

with implementation of the local land-use process. The analysis showed that the

chances of the implementation of adaptation factors rely on a combination of different

factors. These include the presence of investors and of an environmental assessment,

as well as the individual and often very situational decisions made by the person

responsible for the implementation of the plan. In order to make an environmental

impact statement, and therefore the end assessment, mandatory, §13a of the German

Federal Building Code (BauGB) would need to be changed. But it is important the

keep in mind that the presence of rules in the Federal Building Code are not enough

to drive adaptation – informed and dedicated stakeholders on all planning levels and

in the population are also needed.

In Berlin, adaptation has not been a significant part of formal city and regional

planning documents and processes. These administrative tools do, however, contain

measures that could address adaptation, though they do not directly mention it.

Unlike the formal instruments, the informal City Climate Development Plan (StEP

Klima) includes many comprehensive strategies to deal with the effects of climate

change. The development of informal plans like the StEP Klima KONKRET in

summer 2016 which shows exact recommendations of how to implement adaptation

measures, or other programs like environmental justice studies and the climate

planning details map also hint at progress. Such work to expand adaptation knowledge

and strategies is still young.

As long as an action is voluntarily, though, it will only be taken up by those who

already understand its purpose and benefit from it. The others, who don’t know

about or are not interested in adaptation, need to be given concrete and binding

guidelines. A new round of policies, including the Renewable Energy Sources Act, the

amendments to the landscape planning programs in summer 2016, and the planned

adoption of the Berlin Energy and Climate Protection Program, which are at least

obligatory for the public authorities, will all show how Berlin intends to tackle urban

heat stress adaptation in the future.

Zusammenfassung

Der Klimawandel ist ein Thema, das sp¨

atestens seit den aufsehenerregenden Berichten

des Internationalen Klimarates IPCC im Jahre 2007 große Besorgnis ausl¨

oste. Un-

vermindert steigt die globale Durchschnittstemperatur, aber ebenso unvermindert

wachsen auch die Emissionen der sogenannten Treibhausgase weiter, die f¨

ur die

Erw¨

armung urs¨

achlich sind. Die Folgen des Klimawandels sind weltweit un¨

uberse-

hbar und fordern neben den Strategien zum Klimaschutz (Mitigation) auch eine

Anpassung an dessen unvermeidbaren Folgen (Adaption).

Die in den St¨

adten zunehmende Bebauung von Freifl¨

achen, sowie die Zunahme

von dunklen Oberfl¨

achen und die Barrierewirkung von Geb¨

auden f¨

uhren zu einer re-

duzierten Durchl¨

uftung und reduzierten Abk¨

uhlung in der schon meist sehr verdichteten

Innenstadt. Auch wirkt sich der Klimawandel innerhalb der heterogenen Stadtstruk-

turen r¨

aumlich sehr unterschiedlich aus. Dies liegt vor allem an den groß- wie

kleinr¨

aumig verschiedenen biometeorologischen Bedingungen, die innerhalb einer

Stadt wirken. Die sich so in St¨

adten bildenden Hitzeinseln gef¨

ahrden durch die

im Vergleich zum Umland bis zu vier bis f¨

unf Kelvin (

) h¨

oheren Temperaturen

die Gesundheit der Bev¨

olkerung. Neben der erh¨

ohten Sterblichkeit kommt es zur

Einschr¨

ankung der Arbeitsproduktivit¨

at, die wir wirtschaftlich gar nicht beziffern

k¨

onnen. Dreiviertel der Europ¨

aer leben in St¨

adten – planerische Maßnahmen, um

Hitzestress zu vermeiden, werden somit mehr und mehr gebraucht, um eine Ent-

lastung der Bev¨

olkerung zu erwirken und die Risiken und Gefahren einzugrenzen.

Hierbei sind St¨

adte wie beispielsweise Berlin gefragt, sich mit ihrer individuellen

Betroffenheit auseinanderzusetzen.

In Deutschland werden zahlreiche Gesetze, Richtlinien und Programme zum Kli-

mawandel verabschiedet. Ob diese rechtlichen und organisatorischen Instrumente

in der Praxis verwendet werden und in welchem Umfang, wurde hier untersucht.

Zahlreiche Ver¨

offentlichungen zu den Folgen als auch der Anpassung an den Kli-

mawandel mit Hilfe von Planungsinstrumenten wurden publiziert. Ob die von den

St¨

adten verabschiedeten raumspezifischen Planungen insbesondere in Bezug auf

das Instrumentarium der Landschafts-, Umwelt- und Stadtplanung diesen Erken-

ntnissen gerecht werden, ist jedoch unklar und lag deshalb, im Rahmen des DFG

Forschungsprojektes 1736 Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in

view of climate change (UCaHS), im Fokus dieser Arbeit. Es stellt sich die Frage, in

welcher Weise deutsche St¨

adte Anpassungsmaßnahmen in Bezug auf den urbanen

Hitzestress implementiert haben. In einer Analyse mittels eines Kriterienkataloges

VII

wurden alle Anpassungspl¨

ane aus St¨

adten ausgewertet, welche entweder Landeshaupt-

st¨

adte oder St¨

adte mit ¨

uber 200.000 Einwohnern und einer Bev¨

olkerungsdichte ab

2000 E

inwohner pro

km2

sind. Die untersuchten St¨

adte zeigten einen klaren Trend

f¨

ur Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, gegen¨

uber Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den

Klimawandel. Bei den Anpassungsmaßnahmen zeichnete sich eine klare Tendenz zu

so genannten No-Regret-Maßnahmen ab, wie beispielsweise Entsiegelung oder die

Pflanzung von Geh¨

olzen, die unabh¨

angig vom Klimawandel ¨

okonomisch, ¨

okologisch

und sozial auch auf lange Sicht sinnvoll sind.

Im n¨

achsten Schritt wurde der Stadtentwicklungsplan Klima von Berlin (StEP Klima)

n¨

aher analysiert. An seinem Beispiel wurde die Rolle von Anpassungsmaßnahmen an

den Klimawandel in den einzelnen Planungsebenen analysiert. Sowohl zur Analyse

des Stadtentwicklungsplans Klima (StEP Klima) als auch zur Entwicklung von drei

Szenarien wurde der Ansatz der Konstellationsanalyse verwendet. Die Konstellation-

sanalyse dient als interdisziplin¨

ares Br¨

uckenkonzept, welches die Akteure (Personen

und Gruppe etc.), Symbole (Gesetze und Leitf¨

aden etc.), technische (Erh¨

ohung des

Albedo Wertes, Fassaden- und Dachbegr¨

unung etc.) und nat¨

urliche Elemente (Klima

und Hitzestress etc.) analytisch erfasst und in Beziehung zueinander setzt. Die

Konstellationsanalyse besteht aus Beziehungen und Wechselbeziehungen zwischen

den Elementen der Konstellation.

Die f¨

ur die Konstellationsanalyse erforderlichen Interviews zeigten, dass in Berlin noch

keine hinreichenden Verbindungen zwischen den relevanten Akteuren, Instrumenten

und Kontexten wie beispielsweise ein Wissensaustausch zwischen dem Senat und den

Berliner Bezirken vorhanden ist. Anders als bei den formellen Instrumenten, wie dem

Bebauungsplan, beinhaltet der informelle StEP Klima umfassende Maßnahmen, um

auf die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu reagieren. Problematisch ist jedoch, dass

der Plan kaum bis keine Beachtung findet und so immer noch keine Anpassung an

den urbanen Hitzestress in Berlin stattfindet. Im Rahmen der Interviews zeigte sich,

dass die Bebauungsplanung als die Relevanteste angesehen wird, um Maßnahmen zur

Anpassung verbindlich umzusetzen. In einem weiteren Schritt, in Zusammenarbeit

mit den Research Modulen 3.2 und 5.1 des UCaHS Projektes, wurden mit Hilfe der

Konstellationsanalyse drei Szenarien erstellt.

Ein Szenario mit wenig politischer Aufmerksamkeit auf den urbanen Hitzestress

und die Initiierung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen.

Ein Szenario mit Fokus auf die Innenentwicklung und der Implementierung

der vorgeschlagenen Anpassungsmaßnahmen aus dem Stadtentwicklungsplan

Klima.

Ein Szenario mit politischen Bestrebungen, Anpassungsmaßnahmen gegen den

urbanen Hitzestress in der gesamten Stadt mit Hilfe des Stadtentwicklungsplans

Klima umzusetzen.

Hierbei war es das Ziel, politische Handlungsstr¨

ange zu entwickeln, wie beispielsweise

eine gesetzliche Verpflichtung die Maßnahmen des StEP Klima umzusetzen, um so

VIII

m¨

ogliche Wege aufzuzeigen, mit st¨

adtischen Hitzerisiken umzugehen. Die Ebene des

Bebauungsplans wurde in den vorherigen Schritten als die f¨

ur die Implementierung

von Anpassungsmaßnahmen relevanteste gesehen. Hier stellt sich die Frage, ob diese

Anpassungskonzepte des StEP Klima tats¨

achlich auf der Ebene der Bauleitplanung

Eingang finden?

Um die Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeiten f¨

ur einen klimaangepassten Bebauungsplan oder

auch die Umsetzung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu ermitteln, wurde die Methodik

des Bayesschen Netzwerkes verwendet. Darunter sind Wahrscheinlichkeitsnetzwerke

zu verstehen, die Ausgangssysteme, wie die Erstellung eines Bebauungsplanes, an-

alytisch abbilden und Wahrscheinlichkeiten f¨

ur die Erreichung gesetzter Ziele, der

Umsetzung der Anpassungsmaßnahmen des StEP Klima, abzubilden helfen. Um

die Tendenzen f¨

ur die Umsetzung zu ermitteln, wurden zahlreiche halbstrukturierte

Interviews mit allen am Bebauungsplanverfahren beteiligten Akteuren durchgef¨

uhrt.

Bei der Analyse zeichnete sich ab, dass die Chance Anpassungsmaßnahmen, wie

beispielsweise die Fassadenbegr¨

unung, zu implementieren von einer Kombination aus

verschiedenen Faktoren abh¨

angig ist: Dazu z¨

ahlen sowohl das Vorhandensein eines

Investors der ein Bauvorhaben umsetzen m¨

ochte, die oft situativ und im Einzelfall per-

sonengebundenen Entscheidungen der Planbearbeiter, der ¨

Offentlichkeitsbeteiligung

als auch das Vorhandensein eines Umweltberichtes. Die ¨

Offentlichkeit kann politis-

chen Druck auf die Entscheidungstr¨

ager aus¨

uben und verweist auf eventuelle Defizite.

Der Umweltbericht bildet die Grundlage f¨

ur die naturschutzfachliche Einsch¨

atzung

des Gebietes. Auch k¨

onnen in diesem Klimamaßnahmen verankert werden.

Eine Barriere f¨

ur Anpassungsmaßnahmen stellt laut den Interviews der §13a des

Baugesetzbuches (BauGB) dar. Dieser hat dazu gef¨

uhrt, dass gesetzeskonform

weniger Umweltpr¨

ufungen in der Innenstadt Berlins durchgef¨

uhrt wurden. §13a

BauGB soll eine Erleichterung von Planungsvorhaben f¨

ur die Innenentwicklung der

St¨

adte sein. Wenn §13a greift, muss kein Umweltbericht erstellt werden. F¨

ur einen

klimawandelangepassten Bebauungsplan muss dieser Paragraph bei der Novellierung

des BauGB entsprechend ge¨

andert werden. Jedoch wird ein klimaangepasster Be-

bauungsplan nicht allein durch das Vorhandensein der Vorgaben im Baugesetzbuch

erstellt, sondern bedarf wacher Akteure in den Planungsebenen als auch in der

Bev¨

olkerung.

Bisher spielt die Anpassung an den Klimawandel in den formalen Instrumenten

und Abl¨

aufen der Umwelt-, Stadt- und Regionalplanung in Berlin keine große Rolle,

obwohl der informelle Stadtentwicklungsplan Klima (StEP Klima) viele umfassende

Strategien zur Bew¨

altigung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels enth¨

alt. Es zeigen

sich allerdings Fortschritte in der Entwicklung von informellen Pl¨

anen, wie das Beispiel

des Stadtentwicklungsplans Klima KONKRET (StEP Klima KONKRET) aus dem

Sommer 2016 belegt. Dieser gibt erstmals Handlungshinweise wie eine Umsetzung

von Anpassungsmaßnahmen konkret an einem Beispiel erfolgen kann. Ebenso ist die

Fortf¨

uhrung von Planungshinweiskarten zum Thema Umweltgerechtigkeit und Klima

als Fortschritt in diese Richtung zu werten.

Aber noch stehen die Bem¨

uhungen, die Anpassungen an den Klimawandel umzuset-

zen, in den Kinderschuhen. Um die Anpassung an den Klimawandel auf allen Ebenen

umzusetzen, muss diese verbindlich werden. Das Berliner Energiewendegesetz (EWG

Bln), die Novellierung des Landschaftsprogramms im Sommer 2016 oder die geplante

Verabschiedung des Berliner Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramms (BEK) die zumin-

dest beh¨

ordenverbindlich sind, zeigen, welche Rolle die Anpassung in Berlin an den

urbanen Hitzestress zuk¨

unftig in Berlin der Hauptstadt Deutschlands einnehmen

wird.

Contents

Acknowledgements I

Abstract III

Zusammenfassung VII

1. Background of study 5

1.1. Climate change and urban heat stress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

1.2. Challenges for environmental planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

1.3. Overview of state of the art adaption strategies and their goals . . . 8

1.4. Initiated strategies for decision making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

1.5. Studyarea ................................ 10

1.6. Problem definition and research question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

1.7. Structure of the thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

1.8. Summary of the project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

1.9. References................................. 20

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities? 33

2.1. Abstract.................................. 34

2.2. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2.3. Methods.................................. 36

2.4. Results................................... 38

2.4.1. Open space management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

2.4.2. Land cover management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

2.4.3. Health management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

2.4.4. Emissions, energy conservation and transport management . 43

2.4.5. Excluded cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

2.5. Discussion and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

2.6. Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

2.7. References................................. 47

3. From Planning to Implementation? 53

3.1. Abstract.................................. 54

3.2. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

3.3. Method .................................. 56

3.3.1. Study site . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Contents

3.4. Results................................... 58

3.4.1. Constellation Analysis - Explanatory text . . . . . . . . . . . 59

3.4.2. Symbolic elements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

3.4.3. Actors............................... 64

3.5. Discussion and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

3.6. List of Interviewees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

3.7. Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

3.8. Declaration of Conflicting Interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

3.9. Funding .................................. 71

3.10.Notes ................................... 71

3.11.References................................. 72

3.12. Author Biographies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA 81

4.1. Highlights................................. 82

4.2. Abstract.................................. 82

4.3. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

4.4. Methods and analytical framing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

4.4.1. Case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

4.4.2. Constellation Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

4.5. Results................................... 89

4.5.1. Mapping the urban development constellation . . . . . . . . . 89

4.5.2.

Urban development governance and urban heat - a detailed

description of the Berlin constellation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

4.6. Urban development storylines of future urban heat . . . . . . . . . . 96

4.6.1.

Conflict dimensions for the governance of heat in urban devel-

opment .............................. 96

4.6.2. Exploratory storylines of future urban heat . . . . . . . . . . 96

4.6.3. Anticipatory storyline “The heat adapted city” . . . . . . . . 101

4.7. Discussion................................. 103

4.8. Conclusion ................................ 104

4.9. Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

4.10.References................................. 106

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level 115

5.1. Abstract.................................. 116

5.2. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

5.2.1. Research Question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

5.2.2. Study site . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

5.2.3. The planning system of Berlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

5.3. Methods and analytical framing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

5.3.1. Analytical framing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123

5.3.2. Bayesian Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

Contents

5.4. Results and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

5.4.1. BN elements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

5.4.2. BN analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

5.5. Conclusion ................................ 137

5.6. Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138

5.7. References................................. 139

5.8. Interviews................................. 146

5.9. Appendix ................................. 147

5.9.1. Questionaire for Probabilitydeterminitation . . . . . . . . . . 147

5.9.2. Quantitative Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

6. Urban climate and heat stress 155

6.1. Background................................ 156

6.2. New information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

6.3. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

6.4. Studysite................................. 159

6.5. Methods.................................. 159

6.5.1. Bayesian networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

6.6. Results................................... 162

6.7. Discussion................................. 166

6.8. Conclusion ................................ 169

6.9. Oral references . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

6.10. Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

6.11.References................................. 171

6.12.Appendix ................................. 178

6.12.1.

Questionnaire: Fa¸cade greening as climate adaptation measure

– Bayesian network analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178

7. Conclusion 181

7.1. Answering Question 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

7.2. Answering Question 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184

7.3. Answering Question 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

7.4. Discussion and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190

7.5. Outlook and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193

7.6. References................................. 195

7.7. Interviews................................. 203

A. Author Contribution Statement 205

A.1.Chapter2................................. 205

A.2.Chapter3................................. 205

A.3.Chapter4................................. 205

A.4.Chapter5................................. 206

A.5.Chapter6................................. 206

Contents

B. Curriculum Vitae 207

C. List of Publications 209

C.1. Peer-reviewed articles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209

C.2. Presentations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210

Acronyms 211

List of Figures 215

List of Tables 217

1. Background of study

1.1. Climate change and urban heat stress

“Climate change is (. . . ) here. It can be felt especially in cities and heavily popu-

lated areas: stormwater systems overwhelmed by heavy summer storms can cause

significant financial damages and heat waves threaten the health of city-dwellers”

(adapted from DWD 2009).

Climate mitigation and adaptation to the impacts of climate change are the most

significant social, economic, and technological challenges of our time (UBA 2009).

Among these effects are extreme heat events, which are an especially dangerous

form of natural disaster (Borden and Cutter 2008; EM-DAT 2010). Its consequences

threaten not only the global diversity of flora and fauna, but also humans, those

responsible for these environmental changes. Therefore, climate change demands

action at all levels: international, national, and regional (Riecken 2002).

There are two main strategies in the international and national discussion of climate

change and its eventual outcomes: mitigation, which focuses on reduction of the

threat, and adaptation, which focuses on preparation for climate change effects (IPCC

2007). A clear separation of the two terms with regard to their differences is not yet

apparent in planning practice (Donner 2011; Birkmann and Fleischhauer 2009).

Problematic is that the effects of high greenhouse gas levels will not be seen for

decades, due to the relatively sluggish nature of global climate systems (IPCC 2014;

UBA 2009). The very drastic but predominately slow climate processes mean that

climate change will play out over time at the immediate local level. The changes

that we have made to our surrounding environment, especially in dense urban areas,

have created a different local climate system in the lower atmosphere, called the

urban climate (Oke 1988; Ward et al. 2016). Unlike rural areas, in cities the use of

different building materials for various structures, varying open and shaded areas,

and constants like topography and seasons lead to the development of very different

microclimates. These are realized through the phenomenon of the urban heat island

and its social and physical effect on humans, urban heat stress. The threat of urban

heat stress is most significant at night when the urban heat island effect is at its

greatest (Donner 2011; Oke 1982; J¨

anicke 2016; Grimmond et al. 2010; Wienert and

Kuttler 2005).

Studies show that frequency and intensity of natural disasters like heat waves, floods,

heavy precipitation events, strong storms, and droughts are increasing worldwide

(BMUB 2008; IPCC 2014; Stern 2007; van Aalst 2006). The respectively greater

impact of heat events in comparison to floods or storms is clear: though fewer people

have been directly affected, fatalities are much higher for extreme heat events than

for any other natural disaster (e.g., storms or floods) (EM-DAT 2010).

Several decades worth of studies have documented the effect of urban heat stress on

health and comfort of urban inhabitants (Buechley et al. 1972; Clarke and Bach

1.2. Challenges for environmental planning

1971; Clarke 1972). Furthermore, the heat wave in the summer of 2003 showed

that urban heat stress must be taken seriously. Across Europe, about

70,000

people

died as a result of this heat wave - in Germany alone there were about

7000

deaths

(Garc´ıa-Herrera et al. 2010; Kinney 2012; Kovats and Ebi 2006; Robine et al. 2008).

Gabriel and Endlicher (2011) also point to a correlation between mortality rate and

heat events. During the 2003 heat wave in Europe, many people reported significant

impacts on their well-being and the local mortality rates increased as well (e.g.,

Breitner et al. 2013; Guo et al. 2014; Harlan et al. 2014; Kovats and Hajat 2008;

Kravchenko et al. 2013; Kjellstrom and McMichael 2013; Scherber et al. 2013).

Zacharias et al. 2015 underline the increase of future heat-wave-associated mortality

due to ischemic heart diseases in Germany. An individual’s level of heat stress

depends on various factors that can lead to different degrees of potential hazards in

their interaction. These factors include age, health, socioeconomic criteria, and the

built environment in which the individual is located (Kovats and Hajat 2008; Hajat

et al. 2010; Schuster et al. 2014). Last but not least, an individual’s recognition and

estimation of the threat heat stress poses and their behaviors in response to it have

a decisive influence (Adger et al. 2009). Dealing with heat stress risks poses new

challenges for policy-makers, urbanists, and architects in urban development policy

(Scherer et al. 2013).

Clearly, strategies to improve adaptation to climate change are required. Politicians

must take the first steps to approve and implement adaptation strategies. The

following section (1.2) describes the ways in which the challenges to climate change

adaptation for environmental planning can be met.

1.2. Challenges for environmental planning

Action has been taken at all levels - global, international, European, national, regional

and local (Riecken 2002). Even though climate change is a global phenomenon, its

negative effects, like temperature increases, will be experienced at the regional level

and felt most acutely in the urban areas where people live and work. Just as

the heavily populated urban areas contribute the most to Carbon Dioxide (CO

)

production, their citizens are, at the same time, those most vulnerable to climate

change (BBSR 2009). By 2050 two-thirds of world population will live in urban areas

(UN 2013). Cities are growth engines and play a crucial role in addressing climate

change (Betsill and Bulkeley 2007; UN 2013; UN 2014). Urban climate dynamics and

the density of cities often intensify the effects of heat stress (Mahammadzahdeh et al.

2009; UN 2014). Nevertheless, not all aspects of the relationship between climate

change and urban heat stress have yet been explained (Grossman-Clarke et al. 2016).

In the past years, a substantial literature on heat stress in cities has been developed,

and the need for climate change adaptation strategies has been stressed in a number

of plans and programs (Baker et al. 2012; Stone et al. 2010; Stone 2012; Reckien

1. Background of study

et al. 2014). If nothing else, since the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC 2014

was published, climate change has become an issue that must be taken seriously. It

accentuates the likelihood of cities’ exposure to exacerbated risks due to the globally

changing climate (IPCC 2014).

Following the principle of solidarity among the regions and member states in the

European Union (EU), as well as with other nations, adaptation efforts should be seen

as inevitable. Climate change impacts will not stop along administrative or geographic

boundaries; EU-wide strategies are needed. According to the EU, adaptation is “a

question of political coherence, planning, and the resulting coordinated actions” (EC

2007, changed).

Mid-latitude cities, on the other hand, are increasingly gaining notice for their

increased risk due to urban heat stress. “Unfortunately, the most effective actions

for reducing heat-stress risks are based on active technologies like air conditioning

causing additional greenhouse gas emissions” (UCaHS 2014). Unlike subtropical

cities, air conditioning systems are not in widespread use in these areas. The risk

of heat stress is, therefore, closely tied to the urban weather and climate conditions

(Bouchama 2004).

There are three main urban features that impact local temperatures. These include

buildings, greenspaces, and streets and sidewalks (infrastructure) (Lowry 1967). This

underlines that future-focused urban planning is necessary to minimize and combat

the unavoidable effects of climate change, and it requires an effectively coordinated

set of policy and planning approaches (BBSR 2009). Furthermore, regionally-specific

strategies must also be developed (Davoudi et al. 2009; Kleerekoper et al. 2012;

Mees et al. 2014).

Some evaluations show that the impacts of climate change will be uneven: some areas

will be hit harder than others (Arnfield 2003; Baklanov et al. 2016; Santamouris

2015; Souch and Grimmond 2006; Wienert and Kuttler 2005; Zhao et al. 2014).

Many studies of the urban heat island effect and how governments have been creating

and implementing strategies to confront it have been performed, especially in hot

cities (Aaros et al. 2016; Heidrich et al. 2016).

1.3. Overview of state of the art adaption strategies and

their goals

One group of articles deals with quantitative modelling and approaches for redesigning

urban structures in order to make a more heat adapted city (e.g., Eum et al. 2013).

Other articles also discuss, for example, the effects of ongoing development of open

land and of measures such as the creation of open fresh air corridors or urban greening

programs for shade or cooling (Kabisch and Haase 2014; Katzschner 2010; Kuttler

1.4. Initiated strategies for decision making

2011; Endlicher et al. 2008; Santamouris 2015; Scherer et al. 2013).

Another section of the heat risk literature focuses on urban and national heat risk

plans and their approaches to hazardous events (Grewe and Bl¨

attner 2011; Martinez

et al. 2011; Stone et al. 2012). These relate primarily to the results of studies of the

effects on public and individual health and the potential threat to urban climates.

They analyze climatology data specific to mortality and morbidity after heat waves

and the associated risk for older people or patients with heart or respiratory diseases

(Breitner et al. 2013; Scherber et al. 2013; SenStadtUm 2011). Also included in

the research are the social dimensions of heat stress and their implication for urban

planning and governance processes (e.g., Großmann et al. 2012; Ginski et al. 2013).

The health of citizens is an especially significant challenge for urban and environmental

planning. Because some citizens have fewer resources for individual actions, due

mostly to financial inequality, environmental justice needs to be promoted though

government action (Adger 2001; Fehr and K¨

uhling 2006). This will require improved

cooperation between planners and public health and health care organizations, as

well as with the stakeholders who are impacted (Bhatia and Wernham 2008).

Others have investigated how planning and policy instruments can help to ensure

that climate adaptation measures are taken (e.g., Baker et al. 2012; Birkmann

and Fleischhauer 2009; Birkmann et al. 2014; Kumar and Geneletti 2015; Reckien

et al. 2014; Stone et al. 2012). One of the key initiatives for climate change

adaptation research was the risk governance approach for an effective and efficient

risk management against flooding (e.g., Corfee-Morlot 2011; Renn 2006; Renn and

Klinke 2013; Renn and Schweizer 2009). Condon et al. (2009) and Measham et

al. (2011) lay out a broad set of tools which can be used at the local level to help

implement strategies to confront climate change. They also examine to what extent

various governance structures could be made more efficient with respect to climate

change. In the end, though, many have found it difficult to identify the exact reasons

why the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures proves to be such a

struggle (Biesbroek 2010; Biesbroek 2014; BMBF 2007; Laukkonen et al. 2009).

1.4. Initiated strategies for decision making

Numerous plans and programs, initiatives, and laws have been created to help prevent

climate change. In Germany, the main goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,

especially CO

, which is primarily responsible for global warming (BMUB 2008;

BMUB 2014). Germany enacted the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate

Change (DAS) in 2008. The goal of this document is “to minimize vulnerability to

the effects of climate change and to use all available options to maintain or increase

the adaptability of natural, social, and economic systems (BMUB 2008).” With

the adoption of the Adaptation Action Plan, climate adaptation finally became a

stand-alone issue on the German political scene (Bubecka et al. 2016; BMUB 2008).

1. Background of study

It did not, however, introduce any previously unknown problems.

In Germany, there are many federal requirements which reference climate change

indirectly. Only three federal statutes explicitly mention climate adaptation, however.

In the German Federal Building Code (BauGB) (2015), §1 (5) and from §9 (1) No.

1 to No. 26 are referenced most often. In the German Federal Water Act (WHG)

(2014) and German Regional Planning Act (ROG) (2015) there are a few relevant

paragraphs where climate adaptation is explicitly mentioned as well. This legal

framework guides climate adaptation work in Germany (Bubecka et al. 2016). This

dissertation focuses on landscape, environmental, and urban planning tools within

the planning process (e.g., comprehensive land-use plan, local landscape plan and

local land-use plan) (see Chapters 3, 4 and 5). The BauGB (2015) defines climate

change as a spatial planning issue. Further investigation of the ROG and WHG is

outside of the scope of this study.

It is important to note that adaptation measures need to be coordinated so that

they can function together across local, regional, and national levels. Concepts of

multi-level governance and participation are tied into these debates. Hence, planners

and decision makers, especially in cities, are often uncertain how to handle the

challenges of urban heat stress. In addition to this uncertainty the planners and

decision makers do only have insufficient information about block level microclimates

and are lacking thresholds for temperature as they exist, i.e., for noise. Accurate,

high resolution analyses are required to get this data. Furthermore, so called ‘good

governance’ constellations are needed to integrate effective heat stress strategies on

all levels (see Chapter 3 and 5). Latour (1986) underlines this with his statement that

the power to get something done lies in the relationships between the various actors

in the process rather than with individuals. Furthermore, urban governance should

be considered a new form of cooperation that should involve decision makers at all

levels, working together to be prepared for future challenges (Betsill and Bulkeley

2007).

In this field, landscape planning “has a cross-sectional spatial planning of nature

conservation” (von Haaren 2004, changed) and is of particular importance. Besides

comprehensive planning for nature conservation, it is also an information and evalua-

tion tool, e.g., for decision making for land-use planning and environmental planning

(Heiland 2017; Schmidt 2017).

1.5. Study area

Berlin is the capital of Germany and, with 3.6 million citizens and an upward

growth trend, also the most populous city in the country (Statistical Office Berlin-

Brandenburg 2015; SenStadtUm 2016). The city covers an area of

890 km2

and is

made up of many neighborhoods with different land-use patterns and characters

1.5. Study area

(Statistical Office Berlin-Brandenburg 2014; 2015). Scenarios calculated by the

regional climate model STAR2 show a clear temperature increase in the future, at

an average of

2.5◦C

by 2050 (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009). This will be seen in an

increase in extreme high temperatures, meaning hotter, drier summers with tropical-

like nights and higher temperatures especially during winter months (Lotze-Campen

et al. 2009). Fenner et al. (2014) determined that the difference of the temperature

in summer nights in Berlin is four to five Kelvin (

) higher in the inner city compared

with the more rural outer areas. Besides heat periods, an increasing and intensifying

number of extreme weather events, such as storms or heavy rainfalls, have been

recorded. These are not only more frequent but are also becoming longer and more

intense in their occurrence. Additionally, they are beginning to be recognized for

their economic impact, on account of their high damage potential, (Revi et al. 2014;

Stern 2007).

Without the direct influences of mountain ranges or seas, which might affect the

formation of urban climate the city is well suited as a study area of this phenomenon

(J¨

anicke 2016; Kabisch 2015). Berlin is one of the greenest cities in the world. More

than 30% of the city’s land consists of green spaces and forest areas (Kabisch 2015).

As the city continues to attract more residents, the demand for housing will also rise.

About 15-

20,000

new apartments will be needed each year, according to projections

showing an increase of

254,000

new residents by 2030 (SenStadtUm 2016c). Along

with the overall lack of housing, there is a need for renovation and renewal in many

existing housing areas of the city. The main issue in the solution to the housing

problems is whether (creative) re-use and infill development will be enough to satisfy

the need or whether open and greenspaces must be given over to new construction.

Increased urbanization and rising temperatures will only contribute further to heat

stress related mortality and morbidity in the coming years (Fallmann et al. 2015;

IPCC 2014). Each year in Berlin, people die from exposure to high temperatures

(

1600

excess deaths per year) (Scherer et al. 2013). In the course of the construction

of new buildings, the life-span of the infrastructure and how it can be better adapted

to future climate change should be considered (Giordano 2012).

In 1990, Berlin established two guiding principles for urban development which are

still followed today: ‘compact city’ and ‘city of short distances’ (SenStadtUm 2011).

Here, however, it is questionable whether densification, depending on the policies

pursued, is the right approach. In the past, several environmental plans were adopted

which could have an influence on the temperatures of the city. With the adoption of

the informal City Climate Development Plan (StEP Klima) of Berlin (SenStadtUm

2011), the informal StEP Klima KONKRET of Berlin (SenStadtUm 2016a) and the

Energy Transition Law of Berlin (SenStadtUm 2016b), the city was a forerunner

in the adaptation field in Germany. Thus, further development of the city should

result in a compact, urban, and livable city, with frugal use of developable land

and both climate and socially compatible density. Residential areas and greenspace

will be created accordingly in existing neighborhoods and new construction areas.

1. Background of study

This is intended to improve quality of life and maintain it for future generations

(SenStadtUm 2011).

1.6. Problem definition and research question

The climate is changing globally and will impact the lives and living conditions of

people around the world. If the goal to keep global temperature rise below two

degrees is not reached, experts warn of repercussions for the environment, economy,

and society (IPCC 2014).

Even after the heat wave of 2003, which should function as a warning about the

urban climate future, Germany has seen little progress towards the implementation

of concrete climate adaptation measures. This is despite many formal climate-related

initiatives and relevant official documents and resolutions. There are numerous laws,

regulations, strategies, and programs from the international level down to the local

level that are intended to combat heat stress. A large gap exists, however, between

the always increasing number of publications on the topic of climate change and the

actual implementation of heat stress reduction measures in the built environment

(e.g., Vink et al. 2013; Wamsler et al. 2013). Among planners and politicians in

moderate climate zones, there is a lack of knowledge about how to handle the problem

of heat stress and how to prepare cities for it (Amundsen et al. 2010; Birkmann et

al. 2013).

This dissertation consists of five articles about different governance levels and gov-

ernment actors. Qualitative and semi-quantitative methods were used to extract

the most important influencing factors of the landscape-, environmental- and urban

planning systems. This process assisted the development of promising governance

approaches, which can help to combat the negative effects of heat stress. Each of the

articles made use of relevant interviews (one-on-one interviews and group workshops

with experts of the Urban Climate and Heat Stress (UCaHS) project) and survey

results.

To identify barriers and gaps in the existing systems, Constellation Analysis (CA)

(Sch¨

on et al. 2007) and Bayesian Network (BN) (D¨

uspohl 2012) approaches were

used to assess the likelihood of the use of certain implementation pathways for heat

reduction measures and the probability of the integration of scientific knowledge

about heat stress into urban planning and governance processes.

CA is a tool which facilitates mutual understanding of complex societal problems,

focusing on questions regarding technology, sustainability, and innovation. It is

often used in transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research of societal problems

to identify relationships (simple, targeted, missing, or conflicting) between the

elements that characterize the problem at hand. By categorizing those elements into

1.7. Structure of the thesis

basically equivalent categories of actors, natural and technical elements, or signs

and symbols, CA simplifies the interdisciplinary discussion and the integration of

different perspectives on a problem (Sch¨

on et al. 2007) (see Chapter 3). To take a

deeper look into the problem of implementation and to calculate the likelihood of

implementation of adaptation measures, Bayesian Network methodology was used as

well. The Bayesian Network approach is an analytical demonstration of real systems

and was used here to assess the relative likelihood of the use of certain implementation

pathways for heat reduction measures and for the integration of scientific knowledge

on heat stress into urban planning and governance processes (see Chapter 5) (Cain

2001; Pollino et al. 2010; Hamilton and Pollino 2012; Uusilato 2007).

With this in mind, the central purpose of this work was to discover how decision

makers currently deal with urban heat. Therefore, the following questions were

addressed:

Which urban planning level is the most promising for releasing, steering, and

fostering supportive interventions for the integration of urban heat stress

mitigation and adaptation policies?

What challenges and constraints do urban planners face in their daily practice

related to the integration of the concept of heat risk, and how can these be

handled?

Do planners and policy makers have an adequate basic set of urban planning

tools to make plan implementation, especially related to heat stress, successful?

1.7. Structure of the thesis

This dissertation focuses primarily on landscape and environmental planning tools

to analyze how they can be used to minimize the problem of urban heat.

The paper is composed of five central chapters as well as an introduction (Chapter 1)

and results and conclusion (Chapter 7) with recommendations for further research.

Chapters 2 to 6 form the main part of the PhD thesis and respond to the research

questions described above. Each chapter (2 to 6) is a stand-alone article, and all

five central chapters have been published or have been submitted for publication

in scientific journals with a peer review process. The following is an outline of the

content of each section.

Chapter 1 Represents the introduction to this thesis, the main aspects of the

political background, and the current state of the research.

1. Background of study

The next two chapters offer insight into the issue of climate change and adaptation

strategies in Germany. Adaptation plans were evaluated to help illuminate how

adaptation measures for heat stress have been implemented. Berlin receives special

attention in Chapter 3, which focuses on its City Climate Development Plan (StEP

Klima).

Chapter 2 “Urban heat - towards adapted German cities?”

This chapter evaluates how German cities implement measures

towards climate change adaptation via an analysis of the adaptation

plans for German state capital cities and cities with at least

200,000

inhabitants and a population density of greater than

2000 residents/km2. It serves a basis for Chapter 3.

Chapter 3 “From planning to implementation? The role of climate change

adaptation plans to tackle heat stress - A case study of Berlin,

Germany”.

This chapter analyzes the StEP Klima of Berlin.

Chapter 4

“A constellation analysis for developing exploratory and anticipatory

storylines for heat stress analysis- insights from a case study in

Berlin, Germany.”

This chapter lays out exploratory and anticipatory storylines for heat

adaptation in urban planning using Constellation Analysis

methodology. Examination of planning and governance processes

allows three exploratory storylines for 2040/2050 to be presented.

Chapters 5 and 6 make use of Bayesian Network methodology to calculate the

likelihood of implementation of adaptation strategies for urban heat stress.

Chapter 5 “Climate adaptation at the local level: A Bayesian Network analysis

of local land-use plan implementation.”

This chapter identifies the factors which play a crucial role for a

climate-adapted local land-use plan.

Chapter 6 “Urban heat stress: How likely is the implementation of fa¸cade

greening? Analyzed with Bayesian networks.”

1.7. Structure of the thesis

Most of the plans analyzed in Chapter 2 recommend greenery as a ‘no regret’ measure.

This chapter deals specifically with the likelihood of implementation of fa¸cade greening

at the building level and the factors that influence its success.

Chapter 7 This chapter consists of a summary and conclusion of the results of

the preceding chapters and outlines hypotheses and questions for

future research.

Chapters 2 through 6 are standalone manuscripts which have been published or

submitted for publication in international peer-reviewed journals. The “Author

Contribution Statement”attached in the appendix gives details about the contribution

of each author.

The articles were published as follows:

Published title: Urban Heat: towards adapted German

cities

Version: used in thesis: post print

Authors: Donner, J., M¨

uller, J.M., K¨

oppel, J.

Journal:

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and

Management

Volume 17, Issue 02, June 2015

Year of publication: 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333215500209

Additional:

Electronic version of this article published as [Jour-

nal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Man-

agement, Volume 17, Issue 02, 2015, 17 Pages] [http

s://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333215500209]



[copy-

right World Scientific Publishing Company] [https:

//www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/jeapm]

1. Background of study

Published title: From Planning to Implementation? The

Role of Climate Change Adaptation Plans

to tackle Heat Stress - A Case Study of

Berlin, Germany

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Mahlkow, N., Donner, J.

Journal: Journal of Planning Education and Research

Volume 37, Issue 4, August 2016, pages 385-396

Year of publication: 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X16664787

Additional:

Mahlkow, N., Donner, J., From Planning to Imple-

mentation? The Role of Climate Change Adapta-

tion Plans to tackle Heat Stress - A Case Study

of Berlin, Germany, Journal of Planning Educa-

tion and Research (Volume: 37 issue: 4) pp. 385-

396. Copyright



[2016] (SAGE Publications).

Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications.

Published title: Developing storylines for urban climate gov-

ernance by using Constellation Analysis - In-

sights from a case study in Berlin, Germany

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors:

Mahlkow, N., Lakes, T., Donner, J., K¨

oppel, J.,

Schreurs, M.

Journal: Urban Climate

Vol. 17, No. 17, September 2016, pages 266-283

Year of publication: 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2016.02.006

1.7. Structure of the thesis

Published title: Climate change adaptation at the local level:

A Bayesian network analysis of local land-

use plan implementation

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Donner, J., Sprondel, N., K¨

oppel, J.

Journal:

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and

Management

Year of publication: 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333217500107

Additional:

Electronic version of this article published as [Jour-

nal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Man-

agement, Volume 19, Issue 02, 2017, 29 Pages] [http

s://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333217500107]



[copy-

right World Scientific Publishing Company] [https:

//www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/jeapm]

Published title: Urban climate and heat stress: How likely is

the implementation of adaptation measures

in mid-latitude cities?

The case of fa¸cade greening analyzed with

Bayesian networks.

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Sprondel, N., Donner, J., Mahlkow, N. K¨

oppel, J.

Journal: One Ecosystem

Vol. 1, November 2016

Year of publication: 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.1.e9280

1. Background of study

Chapter 1

Introduction

Chapter 1

Introduction

The role of climate adaptation plans in Germany and Berlin

Chapter 2

“Urban Heat - towards adapted German cities?”

Chapter 3

“From planning to implementation? The role of climate change

adaptation plans to tackle heat stress - A case study of Berlin, Germany”

The role of climate adaptation plans in Germany and Berlin

Chapter 2

“Urban Heat - towards adapted German cities?”

Chapter 3

“From planning to implementation? The role of climate change

adaptation plans to tackle heat stress - A case study of Berlin, Germany”

Likelihood of implementation of adaptation strategies

for urban heat stress

Chapter 4

“A constellation analysis for developing exploratory

and anticipatory storylines for heat stress analysis-

insights from a case study in Berlin, Germany”

Likelihood of implementation of adaptation strategies

for urban heat stress

Chapter 4

“A constellation analysis for developing exploratory

and anticipatory storylines for heat stress analysis-

insights from a case study in Berlin, Germany”

Storylines for heat adaptation in urban planning

Chapter 5

“Climate adaptation at the local level: A Bayesian net-

work analysis of local land-use plan implementation”

Chapter 6

“Urban heat stress: how likely is the implementation

of facade greening? Analysed with Bayesian networks”

Storylines for heat adaptation in urban planning

Chapter 5

“Climate adaptation at the local level: A Bayesian net-

work analysis of local land-use plan implementation”

Chapter 6

“Urban heat stress: how likely is the implementation

of facade greening? Analysed with Bayesian networks”

Chapter 7

Conclusion and Recommendations

Chapter 7

Conclusion and Recommendations

Figure 1.1.: Structure of the thesis.

1.8. Summary of the project

This research was undertaken within the German Research Foundation-supported

Project #1736, Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of

climate change (UCaHS) (www.UCaHS.org) (KO 2952/2-1). UCaHS is a multi and

interdisciplinary study of potential strategies to combat urban heat stress exacerbated

by climate change in mid-latitude cities. The goal is to analyze in detail the cause

and effect relationships at play between urban climate influences and associated heat

stress risks in outer and inner city areas (UCaHS 2014).

The UCaHS project consists of five Research Modules (RMs), with a total of ten

subprojects. All focus on the risks that increasing heat will cause and on the different

options to minimize or adapt to high temperatures. The five research themes are

outdoor climate and heat stress hazards, indoor climate and heat stress hazard,

vulnerability to heat stress, climate responsive buildings, and the urban system.

As proposed in the overall UCaHS work plan and the individual plan for RM 5.1, the

researchers are Dipl.-Ing. Julie Donner and Dipl.-Pol. Nicole Mahlkow. The purpose

of RM 5.1 was to identify promising government and organizational networks that can

effectively tackle urban heat stress through planning and decision-making processes.

To understand where institutional and governance changes are needed, it was crucial

to study how heat stress is currently dealt with in planning and governance systems.

Special attention was given to the actors in decision-making processes. Here, scientific

work also plays a crucial role. Provided they are well integrated in existing networks,

efficient methods to protect against and adapt to climate change can be established.

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2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted

German Cities?

Published title: Urban Heat: towards adapted German cities

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Donner, J., M¨

uller, J.M., K¨

oppel, J.

Journal:

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and

Management

Volume 17, Issue 02, June 2015

Year of publication: 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333215500209

Electronic version of this article published as [Journal of Environmental

Assessment Policy and Management, Volume 17, Issue 02, 2015, 17 Pages]

[https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333215500209]



[copyright World Scientific

Publishing Company] [https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/jeapm]

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

2.1. Abstract

Is heat becoming a major threat to cities? Following the heat wave in Europe in 2003,

which is estimated to have caused the deaths of

70,000

people, municipal authorities

began to develop adaptation and mitigation plans and programs. Legal obligations

to consider climate change within various development projects have been defined,

e.g., by the latest amendment of the EU EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment)

Directive (2014/52/EU) and the German Federal Building Code (BauGB §1a (5)).

However, urban heat hazards have not yet received as much attention as, for example,

carbon dioxide emissions as drivers of global warming. Dense urban structures, high

buildings, dark surfaces, and high population densities trigger urban heat effects.

With about 3/4 of Europeans living in cities, measures to reduce heat-related impacts

are needed. This paper evaluates how German cities have implemented measures

towards climate change adaptation. The results show that 24 out of 30 cities have

developed mitigation and/or adaptation plans, with a majority focusing on mitigating

Carbon Dioxide (CO

), indicating less awareness of urban heat hazards. Moreover,

we found elaborate and comprehensive examples which might serve as blue-prints

for adaptation strategies. Based on the inhomogeneous scope of the different plans

and programs, there remains a need for guidance and more knowledge exchange

among the cities on mitigation/adaptation options and preferably information on

their effectiveness, to further assist cities in tackling heat stress.

Keywords

Urban heat, climate change, mitigation, adaptation, urban heat stress, strategic

environmental impact assessment, environmental impact assessment

2.2. Introduction

In the last decade, adaptation to climate change has become a significant political

topic and a major subject to scientists. The consequences of a severe heat wave in

the United States in 1980 were a motivation for this increased interest in adaptions to

climate change (Jones et al. 1982). Since then, heat has been recognised in scientific

research as an increasing threat to urban areas, by causing diseases (primarily

affecting the respiratory system) or even deaths (Jones et al. 1982; McGeehin

and Mirabelli 2001). Nevertheless, heat waves had not yet been associated with

climate change (Jones et al. 1982). But since the late 1990s, heat stress in relation

to rising temperatures as a consequence of climate change has been addressed in

several scientific disciplines (Curriero et al. 2001). Special interest was and still is

associated to medical implications as health impacts are the most recognizable effects

2.2. Introduction

in this research field (Haines et al. 2006). McGregor et al. (2007) describe human

vulnerability to heat as a function of the degree of exposure to the heat hazard

and sensitivity to changes in weather and climate and adaptive capacity. However,

implementing adaptation measures for handling urban heat stress as a specific problem

proves to be a challenge for governments and is as of yet understudied (Mees et al.

2014). Additional to global warming, the characteristics of cities tend to intensify

the process of urban heat based on heat accumulation. Consequently, populations in

urban areas worldwide are more and more affected by rising temperatures and thus

by urban heat stress (Stone 2012; Stone et al. 2010; Reckien et al. 2014; Baker et al.

2012).

In the late 1960s, Lowry showed that the microclimate of a city is influenced by the

materials used for fa¸cades, types of structures, and disposition of vegetation (Lowry

1967).

For example, dense building structures in combination with high buildings and dark

surfaces absorb heat during daytime and emit heat during night times, thus leaving

the city no chance to cool down. Furthermore, traffic and a high population density

trigger heat stress and can affect people’s health (Commission of the European

Communities 2009; Condon et al. 2009; IPCC 2007; Stone 2012). As a result, two

microclimates need to be considered. The first and more obvious one is the outdoor

climate. The second, but no less important, is the interior climate, which affects the

human body considerably, as we spend most of the time inside (e.g., offices, homes).

Thus, heat waves in urban areas can lead to discomfort and illnesses such as Chronic

Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), lung cancer, and pneumonia (Conti et al.

2005; Franck et al. 2013; Krau 2013). However, urban heat hazards have not yet

received as much attention as, for example, carbon dioxide emissions. Scientists

agree that heat effects need to be addressed by national policy makers and especially

municipal authorities in order to develop site-specific mitigation and adaptation

strategies (IPCC 2007; Oberlack and Eisenack 2013; European Commission 2009).

In our research, we focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies to tackle the effects

of climate change, e.g., the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, or increasing urban

vegetation, and enhancing open spaces (Bowler et al. 2010; Solecki et al. 2005; Gill

et al. 2007; Susca et al. 2011; Geo-Net 2010). Most approaches dealing with urban

climate focus on mitigation (Baker et al. 2012; Reckien et al. 2014; Stone et al.

2012), as do local plans and programs, the EU White Paper (European Commission

2009), and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2007). Thus, the main research focus

addresses specific instruments to reduce energy consumption, for example in the

cooling sector, via green fa¸cades and roofs or by planting trees for shade (Armson

et al. 2012; Hall et al. 2012). The German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate

Change (DAS) was set up to support German authorities to draw on an informal

framework for measures to implement climate adaptation strategies (BMU 2008).

To evaluate the extent to which German urban climate protection plans include

measures for adaptation to urban heat stress effects, we analysed available mitigation

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

and adaptation strategies for Germany’s most densely populated cities (with more

than

2000 residents/km2

). Furthermore, we examined which tools and instruments

have been addressed within this sample. The analysed plans are adopted on the local

level as they have been set up for the specific city, but have a rather recommendatory

nature (similar to the DAS) other than, e.g., legally binding goals in a regional plan.

An inclusion of climate proofing within the planning processes, e.g., in the context

of the EIA, would be promising for effective handling and management (Fischer

and Sykes 2007). A first step has been done by the European Union (EU) with the

amendment of the EU EIA (2014), which introduced the topic of climate change to

the agenda of EIA (European Commission 2014). Addressing human health issues at

the same time within the amendment, it becomes at least indirectly obvious that

urban heat stress matters in the field of environmental assessment ever more.

2.3. Methods

Our case study research draws on previous research from Stone et al. (2012), who

developed three categories with eight management strategies (Table 2.2) to evaluate

mitigation strategies in climate action plans of the 50 most populated cities in the

USA. The three categories are albedo enhancement, energy efficiency (building energy

efficiency, renewables programs, vehicle energy efficiency, and vehicle travel demand

management), and vegetation enhancement (green roofs, regional forest management,

and urban tree management).

Instead of using the total population as an indicator used by Stone et al. (2012), we

chose the population density (more than

2000 residents/km2

) to identify the cities

most likely to be affected by heat stress. As a prerequisite, we defined that the city

should have a population of at least

200,000

or should be a federal state capital, since

these are likely to be of special interest to regional policy makers (e.g., Schwerin less

than

200,000

inhabitants). Applying those conditions, we identified (until November

2013) a total of 30 cities to be analysed.

Six of the 30 cities originally considered were excluded because they did not have

their own management and/or adaptation plan (e.g., Munich is only covered by a

management plan on climate change for the state of Bavaria). Consequently, 24 cities

were included based on the number of residents, population density, and an available

management and/or adaptation plan. We supplemented the criteria of Stone et al.

(2012) with additional indicators due to the specific focus of this study on urban heat

(Tables 2.1 and 2.1). The supplemental indicators (e.g., heat stress, heat island or fresh

air corridors) were retrieved from German and international references (e.g., Armson

et al. 2012; Sabler et al. 2005; Berlin Senate Department for Urban Development and

Environment 2011) as well as from feedback and preliminary results gained during

2.3. Methods

UCaHS

project meetings. To identify and visualise the relevance of indicators, we

distinguished between direct impacts on urban heat and indirect/cumulative affects

which predominantly address overall climate change topics.

We based our results on categories and strategies covered in the assessed mitiga-

tion/adaptation plans. However, the results cannot be compared only based on the

total score as the single scores are not equal in their potential effect on reducing

urban heat. Thus, the results picture efforts and serious consideration rather than

the final effectiveness. Those plans were analysed by studying the table of contents,

potentially relevant chapters, and searching for keywords related to the strategy

or indicator e.g., such as reflection, radiation, surface, or brightness to identify the

recognition of albedo.

Table 2.1.: Categories covered within the plans.

Category Topics Covered

A Heat stress

B Heat island

C Dry periods

D Urban floods

E Heavy rain events

F Water quality management

G Fresh air corridors

H Health

I Vulnerable groups

J Energy efficiency

1UCaHS: Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid latitude cities in a view of climate change.

Adopted by EC Directive- European Parliament 2010 and the Energy Conservation Ordinance of

Germany

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

Table 2.2.:

Strategies discussed in the climate action plans. In italics indicators

developed by Stone et al. (2012).

Categories No. Strategies Explanation/function

Relevant to Urban Heat

Heat stress 1Albedo enhancement Increase radiation reflection,

light-coloured surfaces

Heat island 2Green roofs/fa¸cades

Indoor climate improvement,

green roofs/fa¸cades

Dry periods

Fresh air

corridors

3 Green space

management

Drip irrigation, changes in

the design and management

of green space and public

spaces,

4Urban tree management

/ Regional forest

management

More heat resistant species,

planting initiatives,

donation campaigns

Health 5 Alert systems (“H”

specifically for urban

heat)

Newsletter, homepages

Vulnerable

groups

6 Information distribution

(“H” specifically for

urban heat)

Flyer, education, homepages

Water

quality

management

7 Water bodies Small lakes, fountains

Urban floods

Heavy rain

events

8 Unsealing

Relevant to

Climate Change

Energy

Efficiency

9Building energy

efficiency

Develop energy pass after

construction, alteration,

extension of buildings2

10 Renewable energy source

management

Enhance the use of

renewables

Vehicle energy efficiency

Electric cars, lower fuel

consumption

12 Vehicle travel demand

management

Car sharing, public

transport, bike lanes

2.4. Results

The 24 German mitigation and adaptation plans (Table 2.3) differed substantially in

terms of scope and detail as visualised by Figure 2.1 which shall give an impression

on the scope of the different plans. However since the single indicators are not equally

comparable in their potential impact on urban heat the following results are to be

understood as a qualitative rather than a quantitative comparison. While some

2.4. Results

plans were formulated in a rather general manner, others incorporated a majority

of the indicators (Table 2.2). Some specifically address adaptation measures, such

as the plans of Cologne, Stuttgart, Frankfurt/Main, Hanover, and Duisburg (Table

4). But in contrast, the majority of plans focus only on mitigation than adaptation

measures, such as increasing the efficiency of public transport and/or upgrading

housing insulation. We summarised our results in terms of management strategies

related to (1) open spaces, (2) land cover, (3) health, and (4) emissions, energy

conservation, and transport.

2.4.1. Open space management

Our results showed that 10 of the cities addressed green space management within the

mitigation and/or adaptation plans. Of the 24 plans, 17 mentioned the importance

of fresh air corridors that safeguard an air exchange between cooler air from the

outskirt areas and the warmer urban air. The importance of fresh air supply has been

highlighted, for example, in the City Climate Development Plan of Berlin within a

specific chapter on bio-climate (Berlin Senate Department for Urban Development

and Environment 2011). Efficient adaptation strategies such as albedo enhancement

were only included in eight plans. Implementing effective measures can lead to

healthier living conditions without the necessity of installed air conditioning.

2.4.2. Land cover management

Heat accumulation on surfaces such as bare soil, dark asphalt, or others that store

solar radiation can be reduced significantly by deliberate management strategies (e.g.,

open water bodies, unsealing, green pace). Open water bodies deliver an appreciable

cooling effect on a local scale due to evaporation (plus transpiration of adjacent

plants); this is covered by about a third of the plans we examined.

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

Table 2.3.:

Analysis of the management and adaptation plans regarding direct (white) and indirect indicators (grey) on urban

heat.

City Climate

Adaptation/Action Plans

Topics covered Management Strategy Pop.

density

ppl./km2

Pop. in

1000

Area in

km2

A B C D E F G H I J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Berlin StEP Klima; 2011 x x x x x x x H X x x x x x x x x x x x 3,927 3,502 891.75

Bochum Energie- und

Klimaschutzkonzept f¨

die Stadt Bochum bis

2020

x x x x x 2,567 374 145.66

Brunswick integriertes

Klimaschutzkonzept f¨

Braunschweig

(x) x (x) x x x x 1,285 251 192.13

Bremen KLAS (Klimaanpassung-

sstrategie)

(x) (x) (x) x 1,685 548 325.42

Cologne Klimawandelgerechte

Metropole K¨

oln

x x x x x x x x x x x x x x H H x x x x x x 2,510 1,017 405.17

Dortmund Handlungsprogramm

Klimaschutz 2020

x x x x x (x) x x x x x x x x x 2,070 581 280.71

Dresden REGKLAM (Energie-

und Klimaschutzkonzept)

(x) x x x x x x x x x H x 1,614 530 328.31

Duisburg Klimawandelanpassungs-

strategie f¨

Duisburg

(x) x x x x (x) x H x (x) x x x (H) x x x x 2,096 488 232.83

D¨

usseldorf Klimabericht (x) x x x (x) x x x x x 2,725 592 217.41

Erfurt Integriertes

Klimaschutzkonzept der

Landeshauptstadt Erfurt

x x x x x 767 206 269.14

Essen Integriertes Energie- und

Klimakonzept der Stadt

Essen

x x x x x x x x x (x) x x x x x 2,726 573 210.34

Frankfurt am

Main

Frankfurter

Anpassungsstrategie

x x x x x x H H (x) x x x x x x (x) x x x x 2,785 692 248.31

Gelsenkirchen Integriertes

Klimaschutzkonzept

Gelsenkirchen 2020

(x) x x x x x x x x x x x x x 2,446 257 104.94

Hamburg Aktionsplan Anpassung

an den Klimawandel

(x) x x x x H x x x x x x H (x) x x x x x 2,382 1,799 755.30

Hanover Anpassungsstrategie zum

Klimawandel

x x x x x x x x (x) (x) x x x x (x) (x) x x (x) 2,576 526 204.14

Kiel Kieler Energie- und

Klimaschutzkonzept

H x H (x) x x x 2,040 242 118.65

A B C D E F G H I J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

continued on next page

2.4. Results

Table 2.3 – continued from previous page –

City Climate

Adaptation/Action Plans

Topics covered Management Strategy Pop.

density

ppl./km2

Pop. in

1000

Area in

km2

A B C D E F G H I J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Leipzig Klimaschutzprogramm

der Stadt Leipzig

x (x) x x x x x x x x 1,788 532 297.37

Magdeburg Energie-und

Klimaschutzprogramm

2013-2015

(x) (x) (x) x 1,156 232 200.99

Nuremberg Handbuch

Klimaanpassung

x x x x x x x x (x) x x x x (x) x x x x x x 2,740 511 186.37

Oberhausen Energie- und

Klimaschutzkonzept f¨

die Stadt Oberhausen

x H x x x x x x x x x x 2,757 213 77.10

Potsdam Integriertes

Klimaschutzkonzept 2010

x x x x x x x x x x x x (x) x x x x x x 847 159 187.52

Saarbr¨

ucken Urbane Strategien zum

Klimawandel

x x x x x x x (x) x x x x x x 1,054 176 167.09

Schwerin Klimaschutzkonzept

Schwerin

x x x x x x x x x x x x 730 95 130.53

Stuttgart Klimaanpassungskonzept

Stuttgart, KLIMAKS

x x x x x x x H x (x) x x x x x x x x (x) 2,958 613 207.35

Sum 10 10 15 13.5 16 11.5 16.5 17.5 8.5 18 8 15 16 15 5.5 12.5 6.5 14 20 17.5 16 20

A B C D E F G H I J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3According to the German Federal Statistical Office; Stand: 31.12.2011

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

Heavy rain events and urban floods are widely known effects of climate change which

impact cities even more significantly compared to rural areas. This is due to the

sealed areas where precipitation cannot drain but also the construction design (only

narrow runoff routes).

Researchers agree that unsealing, addressed by almost half of the analysed German

urban action plans, can provide greater benefits to urban climate than CO

reductions.

This is due to the cooling effect by soil transpiration and avoided accumulation of

heat by sealing materials such as asphalt or concrete (Stone et al. 2012; European

Environment Agency 2012).

The evaporation of sealed surfaces is decreased, which leads to less humidity and

thus, the microclimate changes. Furthermore, sealing leads to a loss of soil as a

natural filter for dust and pollution (Osman 2013), as a habitat for animals and

plants, and as a recreational and nature experience area for citizens. Especially

during summers, unsealed surfaces with woods offer welcoming space and cool down

areas (Ali-Toudert and Mayer 2007). The heating of yard space and surfaces can be

reduced by unsealing, accomplished by exchanging asphalt by lawns, tree planting,

setting up shading elements (canopies, pagodas), and light paving (Ali-Toudert and

Mayer 2007).

2.4.3. Health management

The groups of residents, which are affected more intensely by urban heat stress than

other residents, are children, are those above 65 years and those in bad physical

condition (i.e., due to illness). They are likely to face direct impacts on their everyday

life due to heat island effects (European Environment Agency (EEA) 2012). Thus,

there is a significant and realised need to implement health management strategies.

This is underlined by the fact that in 19 plans, climateinduced health problems were

mentioned in general and 12 of these addressed heat stress specifically. Within the

analysed plans, health threats were mostly related to rainstorms causing urban floods.

Heat alert systems

were only found in nine of the plans. Most plans referred to the

warning system of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) which is already in

place (German Meteorological Service 2010; Koppe 2012). This tool automatically

sends digital heat warning messages to hospitals and other institutions. However,

five city mitigation and/or adaptation plans did not address health issues at all.

Only a few tools and strategies were identified to provide essential information for

specific target groups. Cologne, for example, addresses health risks for vulnerable

groups (children, over-65, and ill people), proposing communication campaigns via

press, flyers, Internet, and other media about risks and ways to reduce impacts from

The individual scores are not equally comparable in their potential effect on reducing urban heat.

DWD provides a newsletter that sends heat warnings in case the wind chill factor at 2 days in a

row is above 32 ◦Cor it is above 38 ◦C

2.4. Results

urban heat. The Cologne plan suggests considering heat aspects when planning

buildings for vulnerable groups such as e.g., hospitals, retirement homes, and child-

care centres. Furthermore, it points out the need for emergency plans for congested

urban areas where a great number of people or vehicles converge. The climate

adaptation concept of Stuttgart includes a monitoring system focusing on illnesses

caused by climate conditions. This shall help the cities’ health scientists to retrieve

substantial knowledge on the impact of heat on the human body.

2.4.4. Emissions, energy conservation and transport management

Besides the global warming potential of emissions such as CO

, temperatures can

also be increased by Particulate Matter (PM) that is predominantly emitted by

the transport and energy sector. Traffic jams are a common event in bigger cities,

impacting the air quality and share of airborne PM. Hence, managing these sectors

offers additional potential for enhancing urban climate. Of the 24 plans assessed,

energy efficiency of buildings (84%) and a well-organized and sustainable local public

transport sector (88%) was covered by the majority. In order to adapt to urban heat,

Frankfurt’s adaptation plan aims at analysing whether heat waves lead to certain

diurnal traffic patterns. Increased public transport provision at peak times could

reduce pressure on certain travel routes. The possibility of schedule adaptations

to heat waves remains a particular challenge. Providing public transport shelters

offering shade and lower temperatures are mentioned as measures to adapt to urban

heat burden.

2.4.5. Excluded cities

Six cities, which would have been included on the basis of their population density,

did not provide any city-specific plan or information on strategies and concepts to

reduce urban heat impacts. These were: Wuppertal and Bonn, where adaptation and

mitigation plans only exist on the state level where Bonn has developed an integrated

concept for climate protection but is not accessible for the public; Mainz, which has

a climate initiative and climate change reports but as of yet no plan; Munich, is

covered by the Bavarian climate program 2020; Wiesbaden, is part of a “100 local

authorities campaign for climate protection” (‘Hessen aktiv’) and has an adaption

plan on a state level as well; and Mannheim city, where the administration provides

only a summary of the overall city concept of climate protection and follows a state

level climate mitigation law.

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

Figure 2.1.:

Analysis of management and adaptation plans including information

of the analysed management and adaptation plans. For each city we

illustrated the number of regarded management strategies (Table 2.2:

e.g., Albedo enhancement, green space management or unsealing) as

well as the number of topics addressed (Table 2.1: e.g., heat stress, heat

island or health) by means of a bar chart4.

2.5. Discussion and Conclusions

The analysis of 24 German city mitigation and adaptation plans reveals that climate

change is proven to be an important topic to urban policy-making. Nevertheless, even

ten years after the European heat wave which caused

70,000

deaths, the importance of

heat adaptation strategies is still underestimated in many German cities’ policies. The

results illustrate that capital cities of all the 16 German federal states are acting to

respond to climate change by developing mitigation and/or adaptation plans. The six

cities not providing any plan did all mention initiatives or projects on a federal state

or regional level however. Although urban heat stress leads to significant impacts on

urban environments and human health, it has not been given sufficient consideration.

The scopes of the various plans differ significantly in terms of the certain topics

addressed and the related measures that should be taken. In general, the cities

focus their attention predominantly on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions,

specifically on CO

emissions, in context of climate change mitigation. Nevertheless,

plans do also address an implementation of measures to reduce urban heat stress

and by that, promote healthier living conditions without a higher necessity to use air

conditioning. The issue with air conditioning is that it would in turn lead to increased

energy demands which is dependent upon the energy mix to additional emissions and

thus gives a potential rise in temperature (due to emissions global warming potential

and the presence of PM) (Bernard et al. 2001; Jacob and Winner 2009; Karl and

Trenberth 2003; Landsberg 1981). This issue is gaining in consideration as more

than half of the plans address green space management as a beneficial measure to

reduce urban heat stress. However, less than half of the cities recognised the option

of surface unsealing to reduce heat accumulation and increase surface percolation.

Moreover, about three-quarters of the cities did not consider the cooling potential of

water bodies to improve the urban climate.

Local impacts such as urban heat fuelled by climate change are addressed only in a

negligible manner by Environmental Assessments (WTO 2009). However, climate

protection as well as adaptation to climate change are formulated as goals within the

German Federal Building Code (BauGB §1a (5)), which is part of the legislative basis

for conducting an EIA and/or Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). With

the latest amendment of the European EIA Directive (2014/52/EU) the subject of

climate change has been introduced. As soon as member states have ratified this

amendment, they are obliged to consider climate change as an important element

regarding decision-making processes and within project development assessments

(European Commission 2014, 2015).

An applicable and effective option to prevent the accumulation of heat is, e.g., the

siting of constructions (whether they are located within fresh air corridors, the

distance to other buildings and streets, etc.) and height of buildings. Such issues are

laid down by the local land-use plan. The potential to improve the cities’ climate at

this planning level are most promising. It is the small-sized urban planning unit which

2. Urban Heat: Towards Adapted German Cities?

reveals the challenges for urban planners to deal with heat stress on an operational

level. Informal incentives such as an online platform for local authorities to share

their experiences with adaptation and mitigation measures may help to improve

consideration of urban heat.

Such a commonly accessible platform for the public, administration and planning

agencies which includes the different plans might support the development of adapta-

tion and mitigation plans, since this would include a wide range of measures and

instruments. A forerunner like Cologne could function as a benchmark reference,

since it addresses all relevant indicators identified in our analysis. However, ad-

dressing a range of indicators covered by mitigation and/or adaptation plans does

not necessarily imply that a city will be able to realise its aims in terms of heat

stress. Without guidance by regulations or incentives, there is no guarantee that

measures will be implemented either on a national or a local level. Moreover, there

is still a lack of awareness on the importance of tackling heat stress. There are good

examples that address both management and adaptation strategies against urban

heat such, as the policies and plans of Cologne, Stuttgart, Frankfurt/Main, Hanover,

and Duisburg. However, further research is needed regarding the impacts of such

plans and to investigate the reasons why all these five cities are located in western

Germany. The overall question for further research is whether there is a measurable

positive impact on climate in cities who have implemented mitigation and adaptation

plans.

2.6. Acknowledgements

The study is part of the Research Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and Heat Stress in

mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (UCaHS)” (www.UCaHS.org) funded

by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under the code KO 2952/2-1. The

authors wish to thank Lisa F. Odparlik, Marija Stamenkovic, Kristin Fenske and the

anonymous reviewers for their contributions to improve the manuscript.

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3. From Planning to Implementation?

The Role of Climate Change

Adaptation Plans to tackle Heat Stress

- A Case Study of Berlin, Germany

Published title:

From Planning to Implementation? The Role of

Climate Change Adaptation Plans to tackle Heat

Stress - A Case Study of Berlin, Germany

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Mahlkow, N., Donner, J.

Journal: Journal of Planning Education and Research

Volume 37, Issue 4, August 2016, pages 385-396

Year of publication: 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X16664787

Mahlkow, N., Donner, J., From Planning to Implementation? The Role of

Climate Change Adaptation Plans to tackle Heat Stress - A Case Study of

Berlin, Germany, Journal of Planning Education and Research (Volume: 37

issue: 4) pp. 385-396. Copyright



[2016] (SAGE Publications). Reprinted

by permission of SAGE Publications.

3. From Planning to Implementation?

3.1. Abstract

Global climate change increases the necessity for mid-latitude cities to tackle urban

heat. Climate change adaptation plans are common policy mechanisms to approach

the issue. This paper studies the City Climate Development Plan (StEP Klima) of

Berlin, Germany, by using Constellation Analysis (CA). We analyzed to what extent

StEP Klima might trigger planning and governance processes for the implementation

of heat stress measures. Berlin’s plan brought attention to the local risks of urban

heat and possible strategies. To translate its aims into decision-makers’ everyday

governance and planning practices institutionalized guidance and an activation of

policy instruments is needed.

Keywords

Berlin, climate change adaptation, Constellation Analysis, policy instruments, urban

heat

3.2. Introduction

Following scientific advice and political statements declaring that the regional and

local level is of high priority in adapting to climate change (e.g., Carter et al. 2015;

Dannevig et al. 2012; Frommer 2009), a huge number of cities have created adaptation

plans. The question remains whether these plans indeed trigger actions concerning

local adaptation to climate change or if they remain tokenism.

Several scholars have assessed local adaptation plans and strategies (e.g., Reckien et

al. 2014; Baker et al. 2012; Lehmann et al. 2015). Reckien et al.’s (2014) survey

highlights the distribution of climate change mitigation and adaptation plans across

European cities. It includes a broad analysis of adaptation plans, but does not

capture the complexity of the policy processes involved in various cities’ adaptation

to climate change (Baker et al. 2012). The authors call for studies that “investigate

potential drivers and barriers of plan development as well as of the implementation

of planned actions (. . . )” (Reckien et al. 2014: 339). Baker et al. (2012) developed

an evaluation framework to assess seven local climate change adaptation plans in

Southeast Queensland, Australia. The study provides an insight into structural,

procedural, and contextual factors that pose limits to a comprehensive adaptation

process. However, it does not pay much attention to the interplay of factors inhibiting

the implementation of a plan’s goals. Lehmann et al. (2015) compare four cities in

developing and developed countries concerning barriers and opportunities for effective

climate change adaptation planning. They focus exclusively on the preparation and

3.2. Introduction

adoption of adaptation strategies and action plans, and identify a similar set of

barriers in developing and developed countries. The authors stress the importance of

the institutional context, participation, and multi-level governance to mainstream

adaptation.

Only recently has the scientific community given more attention to the way planners

and policy-makers perceive and deal with the particular climate change adaptation

issue of urban heat (Runhaar et al. 2012; Mees et al. 2015; Carter et al. 2015;

Kleerekoper et al. 2012). Wilby (2007) identified urban heat as a risk factor

aggravated by the global greenhouse effect due to an intensification of urban heat

islands (Oke 1982) and a higher frequency of extreme weather events such as heat

waves. Heat stress has been associated with a significantly lower human well-being, as

well as higher mortality and morbidity rates (e.g., Kravchenko et al. 2013; Scherber

et al. 2013; Harlan et al. 2014). In causing tremendous numbers of excess deaths,

heat waves have had the strongest impact of all natural disasters on human health

in Europe between 1998 and 2009 (EEA 2010). In particular, the 2003 heat wave

with app.

70,000

fatalities throughout Europe (Robine et al. 2008) proved the high

health risks for populations who do not commonly experience extreme temperatures.

Knowledge about policy instruments guiding urban development in tackling heat

health risks is still scarce. Stone et al. (2012) reviewed 50 municipal and state

level action plans in the US regarding their emission control and heat management

strategies. They found that the plans lack heat management strategies, which

potentially puts human health and welfare in the covered areas at risk. The study of

Donner et al. (2015) examines the importance German climate change plans assign

to heat-related risk factors and prevention measures. While many German cities

adopted climate change adaptation plans, the reduction of urban heat risks still

receives insufficient attention. Berlin has been one of the forerunners and addressed

most, but not all, relevant heat-related indicators (e.g., albedo enhancement, green

roofs/fa¸cades or unsealing).

Thus, current research has reviewed outputs of adaptation plans regarding preferred

heat stress measures. An in-depth analysis of the adaptation plans’ performance and

outcome before and after the implementation of proposed measures is missing. We

investigate how a local climate change adaptation plan can lead urban development

governance and planning towards the implementation of heat stress measures.

The Berlin City Climate Development Plan (StEP Klima) fulfilled a pioneering

role in Germany for urban climate change adaptation planning. It was acclaimed

for its methodological approach, which should serve as an example for other cities

(SenStadtUm 2010). The aim is to systematically integrate the StEP Klima’s goals

into administrative processes (BBSR 2015). Studying the Berlin City Climate Devel-

opment Plan (StEP Klima) we identify challenges to use climate change adaptation

plans as a guiding policy instrument for the implementation of heat stress measures.

3. From Planning to Implementation?

3.3. Method

3.3.1. Study site

Berlin is the largest city and capital of Germany. It covers an area of

892 km2

with,

as of 2014, about

3.46

million inhabitants (Statistical Office Berlin-Brandenburg

2014) and is expected to grow substantially in the next decade (SenStadtUm 2016).

Berlin infamously suffers from a precarious economic situation (INSM 2012). The

city has two tiers of public administration; the Senate and its Departments set the

general policy guidelines for the entire city and execute tasks of city-wide importance.

All other tasks, including local land-use planning, are to be taken over by the twelve

districts (Musil and Kirchner 2012).

Berlin’s humid continental mid-latitude climate is characterized by warm to hot

summers and cold winters (Peel et al. 2007). Daily mean temperatures of

19.0◦C

have been observed for the two warmest months in summer during 2000 to 2010

(Dugord et al. 2014). Climate change projections for the city of Berlin imply a rise

in temperatures of

2.5◦C

degrees by 2050 with more hot days and tropical nights as

well as more extreme weather events (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009).

Gabriel and Endlicher (2011) showed a positive correlation between heat and mortality

in Berlin, particularly for the most densely built-up districts during the two main

heat waves within their study period. Scherber (2014) identified spatial clusters with

elevated relative risks of summer mortality and morbidity, especially for respiratory

system diseases, in the north-western and south-eastern parts of Berlin’s city center.

In their statistical study for the city, Scherer et al. (2014) estimate an average heat

stress related death rate of about

1600

people per year (app. 5% of all annual deaths).

Research approach: Constellation Analysis

To support interdisciplinary research, the Center for Technology and Society at the

Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin) developed the CA approach. Inter- and

transdisciplinary research often faces the challenge of balancing different disciplines

with specific methods and theories, while at the same time ensuring a comprehensive

problem orientation. CA is a tool to facilitate mutual understanding of complex

societal problems focusing on questions regarding technology, sustainability, and

innovation.

Societal processes are characterized by heterogeneous influence factors, which CA

intends to consider equivalently. The various factors relate to each other and form

constellations. A graphical illustration and an explanatory description of the identified

network of factors provide a multi-perspective appraisal of the problem at hand

(Sch¨

on et al. 2007). Visualization and explanation support each other and remedy

3.3. Method

the deficits and difficulties of the other medium of presentation, allowing different

disciplines to relate to the analysis (ibid).

Various interdisciplinary research projects have successfully applied this approach to

explore and analyze complex research objects, to structure discourses, and to develop

strategies and new projects (Bruns et al. 2011; Mohajeri and Dierich 2009).

Application of the CA for the given research objective

From February 2014 to May 2015, twelve semi-structured, problem-centered expert

interviews (cf. Meuser and Nagel 1991) were conducted with Berlin administrative

officials. The interviewed officials were either involved in the creation of the City

Climate Development Plan or apply the instrument in their daily work routine.

Moreover, we examined gray literature and policy and planning documents on the

City Climate Development Plan. The empirical material was analyzed using Content

Analysis (Mayring and Fenzl 2014).

For the subsequent CA, all main influences on the studied subject, derived from the

empirical material, are categorized into four equal element groups:

•

Actors: Individuals and groups of actors (e.g., human beings, organizations,

social movements)

•

Natural elements: Materials, resources, plants and animals, the landscape, or a

natural phenomenon

•Technical elements: Strategies and measures

•

Symbolic elements: Policies, institutional, legal, or economic factors (Ohlhorst

and Sch¨

on 2015; Ohlhorst and Kr¨

oger 2015; Sch¨

on et al. 2007).

Furthermore, CA displays the interplay of the elements, classifying relations according

to their frequency and state of occurrence within the analyzed empirical material.

Relations between the elements can be simple, directed, conflicting, oppositional,

or simply missing (Ohlhorst and Kr¨

oger 2015). Conflicting relations occur between

elements that intentionally act against each other or multiple other elements. If

an element resists unintentionally to the expectation or attribution of others the

relation is called ‘oppositional’ (Ohlhorst and Kr¨

oger 2015). Ohlhorst and Sch¨

(2015) point out that the relations between elements can be undetermined or missing.

Spatial proximity or distance mapped in the constellation show how close or loose the

connections between some elements are. The most important elements are arranged

in the center of the constellation. Less central elements for the analytical problem

are assembled further away from the core of the CA.

The StEP Klima proposes strategies and actors to implement heat stress measures.

The constellation described in the following paragraphs classifies these strategies

3. From Planning to Implementation?

and actors as CA elements (Figure 3.1). Furthermore, it shows their relation to

the climate change adaptation plan, revealing challenges for the plan in the existing

urban development governance and planning system.

The corresponding text explains the diverse components of the CA element groups

- natural, technical, symbolic elements, and actors. The discussion of ‘symbolic

elements’ refers predominantly to the planning instruments, whereas the paragraph

on ‘actors’ focuses on important urban development actors and explicitly relates to

governance oriented strategies. Assuming that all elements have varying potentials to

influence the main variable of heat stress, they are not explained in any hierarchical

order. Rather, the following paragraphs first of all study the policy mechanisms at

the city level, followed by the ones that mainly target the building and parcel level.

3.4. Results

Implementing heat stress measures under the guidance of a climate change adaptation

plan - the Berlin example Content and purpose of the City Climate Development Plan.

After being adopted by the Senate of Berlin in 2010, the City Climate Development

Plan (StEP Klima) was published in May 2011 by the Berlin Senate Department for

Urban Development and the Environment (SenStadtUm 2011). The StEP Klima is

the first policy instrument that spatially differentiates the climate change adaptation

needs for a German city focusing on urban development (SenStadtUm 2011).

StEP Klima contains a “set of weighing-up and control tasks rather than a detailed

set of instructions. It outlines prospects rather than making rigid regulations”

(SenStadtUm 2011: 8). Nevertheless, to ensure that the informal instrument is

considered in every planning process, it was passed in the legal form of an urban

development plan.

The plan covers three different aspects:

It provides spatially differentiated analyses of the areas of adverse climatic

impacts within the period of 2001 to 2010. Moreover, the areas that are

projected to be affected in 2046 to 2055 and prioritized action zones are

mapped.

It introduces measures and strategies that aim at improving the urban design

to reduce adverse impacts on the local climate. The city’s existing built

environment and green and open spaces are the focal points in the four main

action fields of “bioclimate”, “green and open spaces”, “water quality and

precipitation”, and “climate change mitigation”.

It outlines governance and planning strategies on how to achieve the implemen-

tation of proposed measures (SenStadtUm 2010) and presents an action plan

3.4. Results

that includes model projects to develop a climate-proof city.

3.4.1. Constellation Analysis - Explanatory text

Natural element. The ‘natural element’ of heat is represented in StEP Klima’s analysis

of risks and the proposed measures (Aspect A and B of the plan). The constellation

element of urban heat stress is depicted primarily by the StEP Klima action field of

“bioclimate”. This action field focuses on the strains on human health due to climatic

conditions. StEP Klima highlights seniors and those with medical conditions as the

most vulnerable, affected severely by a degradation of the urban “bioclimate”. Even

though the term “bioclimate” also covers extreme heat events, StEP Klima’s analysis

of local heat prioritizes gradually rising temperatures and corresponding risks and

measures. To react to extreme heat events, adaptation approaches need to go beyond

anticipatory urban development measures. They demand strategies that allow for

concurrent reaction to the risk such as the installation of cooling centers or drinking

fountains that are not outlined in the plan.

Technical elements. StEP Klima emphasizes the urban structure, in particular the

building density, to be an important factor influencing the “bioclimate”. In order to

make the city’s building stock more heat-resistant, the instrument recommends using

trees to provide shading, increasing albedo values of buildings, greening fa¸cades, and

rooftops. To make use of the cooling potential of green spaces, StEP Klima endorses

the effects of planting and preserving trees and creating other neighborhood green

and open spaces, unsealing courtyards and other suitable spaces, installing open

water bodies, as well as preserving and developing cool air corridors.

As part of the plan, the heat load is modeled in a spatially explicit way for day and

nighttime for the current and future situation. Interviewed experts appreciate the

modeling approach that identifies areas of high risks for urban heat to lead priorities

for action. They nevertheless point out difficulties to apply the risk maps in planning

practice due to their low resolution. Current modeling approaches of urban heat load

also provide only a risk approximation, as personal heat exposure varies with location,

sun-exposure, personal characteristics, psychological and physiological factors, and

individual time-activity patterns (Chan et al. 2001; Chen and Ng 2012; Middel et

al. 2016). Without strong political support for the adaptation to climate change,

planners find it difficult to implement measures in a legally incontestable way.

Moreover, StEP Klima gives a rather implicit qualitative definition for its aim of

ensuring a healthy urban climate. It neither contains information on adverse health

effects induced by bioclimatic conditions that should be avoided, nor does it include

benchmarks or normative goals to achieve a healthy climate.

3. From Planning to Implementation?

Figure 3.1.:

Constellation Analysis: Integration of heat stress measures into urban development planning and governance

according to StEP Klima.

3.4. Results

3.4.2. Symbolic elements

Mission statements for the urban development. For the Senate Department for

Urban Development and the Environment, the StEP Klima is just one of many,

sometimes contradictory, policies it pursues for Berlin’s urban development. The

plan proclaims a climate change adaptation in conjunction with Berlin’s long term

guidelines of urban development. Since the 1980s, the city has been following the

mission statement of realizing a ”city of short distances” and in this context the

concept of a ”compact city”. The outer city development shall follow the inner one

to guarantee short distances and to prevent space consumption in uninhabited areas

(SenStadtUm 2011).

With Berlin growing, the need for housing space is a pressing political issue. Berlin

documents its housing policy aims, similarly to the policy goals for the adaptation

to climate change, in an urban development plan. The different urban development

plans need to be acknowledged equally, but according to the interviewees, creating

new residential property is a topic that currently overshadows all others in the city

administration. However, expanded urban building activities imply impacts on the

local climate now and in the future. Denser urban forms do not necessarily have a

negative effect on the urban“bioclimate”; several studies have shown that dense urban

forms, especially in hot urban environments, can create local “cool islands” during

the day (Oke 1987; Pearlmutter et al. 1999; Ali-Toudert et al. 2007; Georgescu et al.

2011; Middel et al. 2014). While shading from buildings has a positive impact on

thermal comfort at daytime, buildings store heat during the day and slowly release it

at night (Ali-Toudert 2007; Chen et al. 2012). Even though general evaluations of

heat risks of dense urban forms cannot reflect the complexity of heat generation, a

single assessment of the impact of every new building or the evaluation of suitable

heat risk measures for new buildings does not seem feasible in daily planning practice.

Interviewees confirmed that combining new housing and climate change adaptation

for a long term sustainable city has not yet been pursued explicitly in urban planning

and politics.

The aims of StEP Klima were further defined and politically backed in another

conceptual framework - the Urban Landscape Strategy - expressing a focus on

greening measures to tackle high temperatures. However, with the political focus

on the provision of new housing the preservation of green and open space is often

compromised for new building projects.

Mission statements for urban development sometimes complement, but also at times

compete with the agenda and objectives of climate change adaptation (see Knieling et

al. 2012). Interviewed planners feel overwhelmed by many concepts and frameworks

that are too vague - one reason why the informal instrument of StEP Klima gets

neglected and does not have much influence on urban planning. Currently the

ranking of various development plans undermines climate change adaptation and

3. From Planning to Implementation?

causes non-integration rather than mainstreaming into administrative practice.

Planning competitions. The Senate Department of Urban Development and the

Environment sets the framework for urban planning competitions for the city of

Berlin. Since adopting StEP Klima, all ‘calls for proposals’ also need to take climate

change adaptation demands into account (SenStadtUm 2014a).

However, according to interviewees, these directives collide with standards and ideas

of competing architects who usually prioritize the architecture rather than hiding it

under a green fa¸cade or roof. Planning competitions inspire actual building processes,

but the realization of heat stress prevention measures included in architectural

concepts might also be compromised due to budgetary restrictions.

Environmental assessment. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environ-

mental Impact Assessment (EIA) are methods to identify the effects of a program,

project, or plan on the environment and humans at an early stage in the planning

process. In a StEP Klima communication workshop, district planners recommended

the introduction of an obligatory climate impact assessment for every local land-use

plan (SenStadtUm 2012a). Interviewed Berlin planners also stress the difficulties to

handle the complexity involved in assessing climatic effects in planning processes.

Interviewees state that they do not have the capacity and lack strategies to opera-

tionalize measures suggested by StEP Klima on a local planning level. They plead

for binding city-wide strategies that can be integrated easily into the workflow.

Comprehensive land-use plan and landscape program. In Germany, the formal

planning instruments of comprehensive land-use plans and their supplementing

landscape programs, which add environmental objectives, regulate city-wide urban

development. In Berlin, both documents were amended comprehensively for the last

time in 1994 (SenStadtUm 1994a; SenStadtUm 1994b). Accordingly, the more recent

demands of a growing city and a changing climate have not been integrated into the

plan but acknowledged only by an additional report. Considering current findings on

the interplay of urban development and local climate at the level of the city-wide

comprehensive land-use plan would set a distinct guideline for all subordinate zoning

plans. By including climate change projections into the comprehensive land-use plans,

it could fulfill a longer term planning function, rather than being an instrument

displaying urban development in Berlin reactively. Several scholars suggest ways

to consider changing urban heat risks adequately in comprehensive land-use plans

(Greiving 2009; Greiving 2010; Othengrafen 2014), for example by displaying a change

in land-use over time.

Urban heat risk prevention needs the integrative perspective of comprehensive land-

use plans for informed decision-making (Wamsler et al. 2013). Cooling measures such

as air corridors provided by a distinctive positioning of green and open space can only

be planned and preserved by taking the setup of the entire city (resp. metropolitan

area) into account. The status quo displays no coordination between neither the

3.4. Results

comprehensive land-use plan nor the landscape program and the recommendations

of StEP Klima. Thus, a translation of the policy objectives of the StEP Klima into

a mandatory city-wide planning instrument is missing.

Local land-use plan. According to the German Federal Building Code, local land-use

plans are key planning instruments that should ensure sustainable urban development

and foster climate change mitigation as well as adaptation. The interviewees confirmed

the importance of land-use plans as instruments to tackle heat stress. Heat adaptation

and mitigation measures not only need to be implemented at the neighborhood or

parcel level in the existing built-up area, but also in new building projects planned

to serve the needs of the growing city.

In fact, the StEP Klima encourages using the local land-use plan for climate change

adaptation. In terms of reducing heat load, local land-use plans can determine which

parts of an estate can be built upon or need to remain unsealed. They can regulate

the location of buildings, green and open spaces as well as open air corridors, and

even fa¸cade greening and other measures (Birkmann 2012; Kumar and Geneletti

2015; SenStadtUm 2011).

Nevertheless, according to the interviewees neither the informal planning instrument

of StEP Klima nor an amendment of the German Federal Building Code, which should

enforce a climate-friendly development in cities (§1 (5) German Federal Building

Code (BauGB)), have had a profound impact on their planning routines. When

issuing a local land-use plan, public and private interests have to be considered

and well balanced (§1 (5 &7) BauGB). The interviewed experts at the district level

stated that in an economically challenged city such as Berlin (Berlin.de 2015; INSA

2012), serving investors and creating tax income has been an important, politically

backed up argument in the land-use planning process that often outweighs climate

considerations (SenStadtUm 2014c).

Planning experts declared that local land-use plans are overloaded with environmental

concerns such as biodiversity requirements, a reduction of land consumption, etc.,

which makes it difficult to prioritize urban climate. Noise prevention is assigned an

outstanding role in Berlin planning practice, but respective measures often conflict

with those recommended to reduce climatic risks. The temporary nature of high

temperatures, unlike ongoing noise exposure, makes it difficult to legally enforce the

implementation of heat reduction measures. Guidelines and orientation thresholds

are available for noise prevention, which help planning officials to define binding

standards in a local land-use plan.

The biotope area factor of the landscape plan. Local landscape plans (concretizing

the aforementioned city-wide landscape programme) serve the mitigation of heat

stress by fixing Biotope Area Factor (BAF) (e.g., Carter et al. 2015; resp. “green

area ratio”: Stone 2012; Othengrafen 2014). BAFs assess the surface area which is

covered by biomass and shall create a balance of green spaces and other land-use

3. From Planning to Implementation?

forms. Yet, needs and measures of nature conservation and landscape management

in city states, such as Berlin, are defined in city-wide landscape programs. Landscape

plans for each district are optional; they are therefore only sporadically used in the

current planning practice, limiting also the application of BAFs (SenStadtUm 2011).

According to the interviewees, StEP Klima could not resolve this issue and they

plead for enhancing the BAF’s scope by including climatic considerations as well as

integrating it into other planning instruments.

Urban development contracts. Urban development contracts represent a special form

of public service contract, binding public authorities and investors. They can assure

a climate adapted layout of properties or a binding land-use. The configuration of

buildings by demanding roof or fa¸cade greening or a fa¸cade design with an increased

albedo value can be specified (e.g., BMVBS 2013).

In the context of tight budgets for public authorities and limited options to enforce the

implementation of measures in local land-use planning, urban development contracts

can be instruments to implement heat stress measures. Yet, Berlin planning officials

can only secure the application of measures negotiating with investors if they can

offer something in return. For example, authorities allow building more extensively

than average, if extra greenery is added to the site. However, even if investors offer

to install greening measures, standards recommended by the officials are not always

followed (e.g., plant species composition). District level planning authorities therefore

demand Berlin-wide guidelines and training on how to assess and handle the climate

impact of certain operations to apply urban development contracts with regards to

climate risk reduction (SenStadtUm 2014c).

Design regulations. Design regulations aim at preserving, protecting, and developing

the building stock and surrounding area, its specific architecture and other char-

acteristic features, by defining standards for building materials and layout. These

instruments could protect existing garden areas, trees and fa¸cade greening, or regulate

the color of building faces in order to increase albedo values.

To date, design regulations are often used for cultural preservation, sometimes to

explicitly prevent the application of climate change mitigation measures such as

fa¸cade insulation or solar panels. Even though there have been considerations to

apply the instrument for climate change adaptation (Frankfurter Rundschau 2015),

StEP Klima could not yet stimulate its use for that purpose.

3.4.3. Actors

Coordination of StEP Klima’s aims within the Senate Department in charge.

The StEP Klima was set up as a policy instrument by the Senate Department of

Urban Development and the Environment (SenStadtUm), one of nine Berlin Senate

Departments. As the department is also the main actor to promote the StEP Klima,

3.4. Results

it takes a prominent position in our constellation. Responsibilities assigned to climate

change adaptation lie within the authority of that department. Consequently, the

intention of the climate change adaptation plan was to systematically address sector

specific needs of urban development actors. Nevertheless, even within the Senate

Department for Urban Development and the Environment there are difficulties to

mainstream climate change adaptation into the work logic of different subunits. In

the Heritage Agency, for example, strategies are still missing of how to apply heat

related measures, such as green roofs or fa¸cades, to the currently 10% of the building

stock with heritage conservation requirements (LUGV Brandenburg 2014).

Coordination of StEP Klima aims across different departments.

An urban de-

velopment policy that takes the risks of urban heat stress into account needs to be

multi-dimensional. Nevertheless, aspects that overlap with other Senate departments,

such as the departments concerned with health issues or the local economy, are only

marginally involved in the climate change adaptation plan. This creates problems

when it comes to the implementation of measures; a necessary prerequisite for further

action would be to financially back up the plan by the Department of Finance.

To tackle urban heat stress in the long run includes harmonizing actions against

increasing temperatures, in a precautionary manner with pro- and reactive strategies

for extreme events. The Senate Department for Health pursues some strategies,

such as precautionary and self-help information campaigns addressing especially

elderly people, health care personnel, as well as employers and employees. As of yet,

interviewees miss an exchange of health and urban development authorities on the

cross-over of heat-health and urban development issues, especially with regard to

disaster risk reduction.

Local multi-level coordination between the district departments and the Senate

Department.

The Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment

assigns the responsibility for the implementation of proposed measures of StEP Klima

to a range of different actors, among them the twelve Berlin districts. After the plan’s

adoption, a workshop addressed the district planners to discuss their role in local

climate change adaptation (SenStadtUm 2012a). However, a continuous participatory

process has not been established. Lehmann et al. (2015) consider this “a weakness

of assigning climate change to a single department that selected relevant fields of

action in a top-down approach”. Interviews revealed that a missing involvement in

the process of creating the climate change adaptation plan contributes to its general

lack of acceptance amongst decision-makers at the district level.

Coordination of StEP Klima’s aims with local stakeholders.

To raise awareness

for the new urban development plan and to discuss possible measures another

workshop was held with local stakeholders from the housing economy, environmental

3. From Planning to Implementation?

associations, banks, insurances and water economy in November 2011. One conclusion

of the workshop was a need for an ongoing communication and discussion of what

climate change adaptation means. However, to date a permanent and institutionalized

stakeholder involvement in the climate change adaptation process has not been

realized.

As some of the main stakeholders to support the implementation of its heat stress

aims, the plan mentions the real estate and housing economy. One important actor

in that respect is the Berlin Real Estate Management (BIM); an institution that

administers, rents out, and sells the city-owned real estate. With app. 4,500 estates

in its repertoire, a commitment of the BIM to foster the implementation of heat

adaptation measures would be highly influential. There are efforts to design the

company’s processes in an environmentally friendly and sustainable way, but StEP

Klima’s goals still need to be incorporated. As part of a “Climate Change Mitigation

Contract” with the City of Berlin the BIM committed to reducing Carbon Dioxide

(CO

) emissions as well as to setting up an environmental management system. With

regards to reducing waste heat generation, energy efficiency measures and combined

heat and power generation are promoted for the administrative buildings under BIM

management (BIM 2016). BIM, as well as predecessor Real Estate Funds, sells

property mainly considering fiscal aspects, not yet taking regulations to promote

StEP Klima aims into account (Berlin House of Representatives 2012).

Especially the efforts of the major housing associations, subsidiaries of the federal

state of Berlin, reflect the success of the local government and administration to

mainstream climate change adaptation goals. Over 85% of the Berlin citizens live

in apartments (SenStadtUm 2014b). Urban housing associations, often landlords

with a large building stock, are pivotal players tackling heat stress in- and outdoors.

Measures such as green roofs, fa¸cade planting or a higher albedo value have hardly

been applied yet. Housing associations focus on climate change mitigation strategies,

e.g., energy standards for buildings (e.g., DGNB 2009). Home insulation to improve

the energy efficiency of buildings can also increase thermal comfort- especially

indoors (Harlan and Ruddell 2011). Housing associations focus on the reduction of

greenhouse gas emissions for financial reasons as measures have to be profitable for

them. Implementing the heat stress strategies recommended in StEP Klima, such as

green roofs or fa¸cades, demand long-term financial commitment. They may lead to

potential conflicts with residents concerning rising rents and health concerns such as

allergies or insects (SenStadtUm 2014a).

Involvement of citizens to coordinate StEP Klima’s heat prevention aims.

Citi-

zens constitute an important element of the CA as they are the objects of protection

from heat stress; but the StEP Klima plan also acknowledges their role in realizing

its goals. Civic engagement, taking up a few of the StEP Klima greening objectives,

is in various ways supported by the authorities. Urban or guerilla gardening as

well as tree planting or backyard greening initiatives create new green spaces and

3.5. Discussion and Conclusion

mitigate heat stress. An example for projects that realize ecological aims in the

building stock in cooperation with residents is the “Backyard Greening Initiative”. By

providing minimal funding for plants, other material, and consultancy, the program

sets incentives for residents to ’green’ their backyards (SenStadtUm 2012a). The

Tree Planting Initiative, a public-private co-funding of street trees, is used to replace

dead trees, but young trees cannot provide enough shade for effective heat mitigation.

Interviewees demand a better protection of existing green space by the city.

Recent scientific findings suggest that the positioning of greening measures can be

decisive for its effectiveness to reduce heat stress (see Hagen et al. 2014). Therefore,

even though private initiatives are crucial to achieve the goals set by the government,

especially on private plots, they can only be an addition to a publicly planned

comprehensive approach to realize a heat adapted urban design.

3.5. Discussion and Conclusion

In Berlin, heat stress mitigation through smart urban design remains pioneer work

even in the presence of a climate change adaptation plan. The StEP Klima example

showed that CA can identify challenges of climate planning and governance. The

approach of CA provides new insights into the impacts of planning instruments,

a field in need for more empirical work (Millard-Ball 2012). CA discloses deficits

of the plan itself in dealing with the risk of urban heat as well as the governance

and planning system it is embedded in. While the CA shows whether the plan’s

regulatory decisions conform with other urban policies, it also sheds light on the

plan’s performance by analyzing its potential role in decision situations.

Millard-Ball (2012) sees little evidence that climate change mitigation planning leads

to outcomes that would not be realized otherwise. Our CA suggests that this also

applies to the Berlin StEP Klima plan. However, the challenges to integrate a climate

change adaptation plan into practice are different to the ones faced for mitigation.

In the Berlin case, the climate change adaptation plan constitutes an attempt to

gather knowledge on the various impacts a changing climate can have on a city. As

impacts and solutions have a local character, raising awareness might not necessarily

take place through “media coverage, peer effects, and other channels” like it is the

case with climate change mitigation processes (Millard-Ball 2012). The planning

instrument of StEP Klima represents an important step to bring attention to relevant

local actors and available instruments and spatially defined hot spots of risks. By

creating a specific local problem perception of heat risks and coping strategies,

the plan is an instrument that influences perceptions and preferences while giving

recipients orientation of how to handle the subject (Dupuis and Knoepfel 2011). It

addresses relevant actors and possible means by explicitly assigning responsibilities

to act.

3. From Planning to Implementation?

However, the CA points to the plan’s limitations to have an impact on outcomes and

shows that its approach inhibits a mainstreaming of urban heat reduction strategies

into urban planning and governance. For instance, StEP Klima and related policies

prioritize greening strategies to reduce heat stress. Political discourses claim that

Berlin is already a “green city” (SenStadtUm 2012a; SenStadtUm 2012b; Kabisch

and Haase 2012), which hampers to give local climate issues higher political priority.

The Berlin StEP Klima constellation also showed that main challenges are similar

to the ones faced by planning and governance in dealing with other climate change

adaptation problems. Among those barriers are ill-equipped policy and planning

instruments, a lack of participation in the plan creation, competing policy agendas,

financial and information deficits, and coordination problems within the urban

institutional setting (see e.g., Measham et al. 2011; Lehmann et al. 2015; Runhaar

et al. 2012; Baker et al. 2012).

Policy and planning instruments to implement StEP Klima heat stress measures, in

the CA represented as symbolic elements, exhibit a gap between their legal potentials

and the actual planning practice. Analyzing the various constellation elements

illustrated that the goals of the Berlin climate change adaptation plan often conform

to other policies on a theoretical level. However, in the weighting process, climatic

aspects cannot compete against other environmental and social claims. In the case

of Berlin, climate change adaptation considerations are often overpowered by social

or economic interests and not framed as part of those interests. Investigating the

efforts of various cities to implement climate change mitigation programs, Sharp

et al. (2011: 1) conclude that “while financially strapped cities may adopt climate

mitigation programs to advance co-benefits or cost savings, fiscal stress also impedes

program implementation”. Similar observations can be made for the Berlin climate

change adaptation plan. It can be considered a strategic instrument to position

the city in an international climate change adaptation discourse. Financial strains,

affecting staff or funding, restrict further promotion of its heat stress reduction aims.

Most prevalent difficulties to improve the performance of StEP Klima are coordination

deficits within the urban institutional setting. Results derived from the StEP Klima

governance and planning constellation bear similarities to Langeland et al.’s (2013)

findings for the city of Bergen, Norway: One challenge of urban climate change

adaptation is to coordinate the complex interplay between many different actors

and activities and the attached distribution of responsibilities. Our study confirms

the requirement of integrated approaches that include multi-actor and multi-level

governance to tackle this complexity (Langeland et al. 2013). In this respect, the CA

shows a need for a more action-driven, normative document: Getting backed with

quality goals for urban climate and health could expand the function and performance

of the plan by committing all the diverse actors towards common aims.

Actors need to participate in the strategy development right from the beginning to

avoid fragmented climate-governance (Romero-Lankao 2011) and discuss procedures

on how to integrate heat reduction measures into planning projects. A careful

3.5. Discussion and Conclusion

translation of climate change adaptation objectives into daily planning practices

requires constant communication between urban government levels and different

sectoral units. Precise knowledge can thus be gathered on how heat adaptation

works on various urban scales (cf. Carter et al. 2015; Adger 2005) and how the

formal and informal planning and governance instruments at different levels can be

linked. Information gained in different cases and projects in the city needs to be

bundled, and consultation made available regarding common city-wide standards as

well as possible pathways to implementation. This understanding of climate change

adaptation transcends the provision of planning documents. It calls for a long term

institutionalized strategy to coordinate activities across all government levels as

well as the perennial participation and exchange of local stakeholders. Ultimately,

political backup and public support is needed to elevate the StEP Klima from a

policy instrument in a rather conceptual and informative stage to a tool that truly

changes planning practices and sets incentives for implementation.

Our analysis is an example how to study the performance of a climate change

adaptation plan. Further research is needed to assess quantitatively how many climate

change adaptation projects the plan triggered and how these projects contribute

to reducing urban heat stress. An adaptation plan, especially when it is set up

as a flexible planning instrument, needs constant updating and integration of new

knowledge. It can only be the very beginning of a process to integrate climate change

adaptation into local political and administrative work. Berlin is about to approach

the challenges and is currently working on an additional document that will provide

more details on how to apply heat measures in urban development and instruments

facilitating the implementation.

3. From Planning to Implementation?

3.6. List of Interviewees

Interviews

•

Author 2 (December 6, 2013). Interview with Senate Department of Urban

Development and the Environment (SenStadtUm). Berlin.

•

Author 2 (December 19, 2013). Interview with Senate Department of Urban

Development and the Environment (SenStadtUm). Berlin.

•

Author 2 (January 16, 2014). Interview with Senate Department of Urban

Development and the Environment (SenStadtUm). Berlin.

•Author 1 (March 28, 2014). Interview with district official, Berlin.

•Author 1 and 2 (April 8, 2014). Interview with district officials. Berlin.

•Author 1 (April 30, 2014). Interview with district official. Berlin.

•Author 1 (May 14, 2014). Interview with Climate Protection Agency, Berlin.

•Author 1 (May 30, 2014). Interview with district official, Berlin.

•Author 1 & 2 (July 7, 2014). Interview with district official. Berlin.

•Author 1 & 2 (July 16, 2014). Interview with district official. Berlin

•Author 1 (March 24, 2015). Interview with district official. Berlin

•

Author 1 (April 30, 2015). Interview with Senate Department of Urban

Development and the Environment (SenStadtUm). Berlin

3.7. Acknowledgements

We are immensely grateful to Prof. Johann K¨

oppel who provided insight and expertise

that greatly assisted the research, the anonymous reviewers for comments on an

earlier version of this manuscript, and all experts for their willingness to share their

knowledge in the interviews.

3.8. Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research,

authorship, and/or publication of this article.

3.9. Funding

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research,

authorship, and/or publication of this article: The study was part of the Research

Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate

change” (www.UCaHS.org) funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) (KO

2952/2-1; SCHR 1254/2-1).

3.10. Notes

While definitions for heat waves vary, the World Meteorological Organization

and the Met Office (UK) refer to Frich et al.’s (2002) Heat Wave Duration Index

defining a weather event a heat wave “when the daily maximum temperature

of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature

by 5◦C, the normal period being 1961-1990.”

There are trade-offs as planning recommendations for building positions, for

example, are different for both risks.

3. StEP Klima KONKRET is going to be published by early summer 2016.

3. From Planning to Implementation?

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3.12. Author Biographies

Nicole Mahlkow is a research associate at the Environmental Policy Research Center

(FFU) at the Freie Universit¨

at Berlin, Germany. Her research interests include

environmental governance, urban studies, and climate change adaptation.

Julie Donner is a research associate in the Environmental Assessment and Planning

Research Group at the Berlin Institute of Technology. Her research interests include

environmental and city planning, Constellation Analysis, climate change adaptation,

and mitigation strategies.

4. Developing storylines for urban climate

governance by using Constellation

Analysis - insights from a case study in

Berlin, Germany

Published title:

Developing storylines for urban climate governance

by using Constellation Analysis - Insights from a

case study in Berlin, Germany

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors:

Mahlkow, N., Lakes, T., Donner, J., K¨

oppel, J.,

Schreurs, M.

Journal: Urban Climate

Vol. 17, No. 17, September 2016, pages 266-283

Year of publication: 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2016.02.006

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

4.1. Highlights

•Vulnerability to urban heat is linked to governance strategies for urban devel-

opment

•

Urban governance constellations are place and time specific relations between

actors and natural, technical and symbolic elements

•

Constellations for urban development reveal barriers to urban heat risk reduc-

tion

•

Current governance barriers hint at different storylines related to future vul-

nerability to urban heat

4.2. Abstract

Urban populations are at large risk from climate change and particularly extreme heat

events. While there are various studies about heat risks, including those based on

modeling experiments examining hazards and vulnerability related to heat (exposure,

sensitivity and adaptive capacity), methods to develop urban heat scenarios built

upon in-depth knowledge on urban governance are missing. The aim of this paper

is to create exploratory and anticipatory storylines for heat adaptation in urban

planning using the method of Constellation Analysis. Focusing on the case of Berlin,

Germany, the complex sets of urban governance measures that exist on different spatial

levels are introduced. From the analyzed governance and planning processes three

exploratory storylines for 2040/2050 are derived. Additionally, the paper presents

an anticipatory storyline of a “heat adapted city”. The limitations and benefits of

these perspectives and the need for quantitative and spatially explicit scenarios are

discussed. Systematic approaches to identifying urban heat governance constellations

and deriving respective storylines are of utmost importance for discussing possible

urban development paths with different stakeholders.

Keywords

climate change adaptation, urban heat, urban governance strategies, urban develop-

ment, storylines, Constellation Analysis

4.3. Introduction

As a result of urbanization increasingly large shares of the world population are living

in cities. Cities are merging points of economic, political, social and cultural life, and

as such face a higher risk of damages from climate hazards (e.g., Carter 2011; Revi et

al. 2014), including the urban heat island effect (e.g., Rizwan et al. 2008). Limited

vegetation and resulting evapotranspiration, large shares of dark surfaces with low

albedo, building configurations that trap heat, and the concentrated generation of

heat from anthropogenic activities lead to higher temperatures in cities than in the

surrounding countryside (Oke 1982). Distinctive microclimates are known to create

hotspots of urban heat risk within cities (Lowry 1967) and global warming from

greenhouse gas emissions is intensifying heat in cities (Wilby 2007).

Heat events put urban infrastructure systems and especially inhabitants at risk. They

have been associated with higher mortality and morbidity rates and a significant

lowering of the well-being of urban populations (e.g., Breitner et al. 2013; Harlan et

al. 2014; Kravchenko et al. 2013; Scherber et al. 2013). Many studies on urban heat

risks have been undertaken in hot climates, for instance in Phoenix, Arizona, (e.g.,

Baker et al. 2002; Harlan et al. 2006), Houston, Texas (e.g., Hitchcock 2011) and

Seoul, South Korea (e.g., Eum 2013). Mid-latitude cities in temperate climate zones,

such as Berlin, Germany, are only beginning to get attention. A statistical analysis

by Scherer et al. (2014) identified a mortality risk of about 1600 excess deaths per

year associated with heat in Berlin. The authors concluded that dealing with heat

risks poses increasing challenges for policy makers, urban planners and architects in

mid-latitude cities.

Referring to the IPCC framework on climate change risk and vulnerability (IPCC

2000). McGregor et al. (2007) describe human vulnerability to heat as a function of

the degree of exposure to heat hazards, the sensitivity to changes in weather and

climate and adaptive capacity. Age, income, gender, health status and exposure are

factors influencing individuals’ sensitivity (Harlan et al. 2006; Schuster et al. 2014).

Individual vulnerability is also defined by the specific spatiotemporal exposure to

heat. Adaptive capacity encompasses the available means of a society to target the

risks induced by a hazard and reduce respective vulnerability (IPCC 2000 in Carter

et al. 2015). Assessing vulnerabilities to urban heat requires consideration of a

complex set of factors linked to hazards and their impacts as well as their spatial and

temporal patterns. It is also necessary to study various policy and decision-making

strategies.

Urban development is a policy field of specific importance for the reduction of

vulnerability to heat. It covers governing the materiality of the urban fabric and at

the same time involves social, ecological and economic aspects of spatial development

(Koch 2010). According to Stone (2012) changing land-use and urban growth are

powerful means to alter local climate and to counteract the risks expected from global

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

warming due to greenhouse gas emissions over the next half century. Land-based

heat mitigation can lead to a measurable decrease of local temperatures.

There is considerable research on urban governance and climate change. The literature

addresses adaptation (see e.g., Carter 2011; Winsvold et al. 2009), heat as an urban

development challenge (see Carter et al. 2015; Kleerekoper et al. 2012), and

approaches to urban development which can contribute to city cooling, like the

arrangement and design of buildings and the quality of their surroundings (e.g.,

J¨

anicke et al. 2014; Schwarz et al. 2011; Stone and Rodgers 2001). There has,

however, not yet been research on how urban governance influences possible pathways

of urban development with regards to reducing vulnerability to heat. Different

strategies and their interplay may hinder or result in synergies which can contribute

to sustainable urban development. To study the complex sets of factors influencing

societal problems, Constellation Analysis, an interdisciplinary approach to research

was developed (Sch¨

on et al. 2007). The approach allows analysis of the multiple

co-existing governance strategies for urban development and climate. Bulkeley and

Kern (2006) identify various governance strategies: self-governing, governing through

enabling, governing by provision and governing by regulation. These are relevant for

understanding urban governance constellations.

Also important is to recognize that policies are dynamic and can be altered in the

light of experience. Policy makers can react proactively or reactively to changes in

their surroundings, like a changing climate. Social agency and reflexivity, however,

make forecasting socio-economic trends a challenging task (Berkhout et al. 2002).

Scenario analysis is an important method for testing different adaptation strategies

and to support decision-making processes (Hagemeier-Klose et al. 2013). Capable

of capturing a broad range of possible futures, scenarios can include uncertainties

inherent in a variety of potential developments and are a popular method used in

climate change and land-use change studies (Hagemeier-Klose et al. 2013; Mahmoud

et al. 2009; Quay 2010). As they allow for testing different perspectives of interest

and their implications, scenarios play an important role for urban planning (Schwedes

and Kollosche 2011).

Exploratory scenario techniques use the present as their basis of study. Trends or

causal dynamics are extrapolated and implications for future developments beyond

these known trends are examined. Anticipatory scenario methods initially outline

a preliminary view of a possible (often desired) future or set of futures that are

of particular Interest. They analyze how these futures may be achieved or can be

avoided taking present restrictions, resources and technology into account (Sterner

et al. 2012).

For climate change related scenarios the IPCC has introduced an approach to facilitate

the process of describing alternative future developments combining qualitative and

quantitative data (IPCC 2000). The IPCC’s socio-economic narrative or “storyline”

4.4. Methods and analytical framing

approach was an inspiration for our scenario research. However, here the decisive

role of future narratives on governance for local vulnerability assessments is stressed.

While several climate change scenarios have been developed for the global and regional

levels, only a few scenarios on urban heat exist (e.g., Aguejdad et al. 2012; Masson et

al. 2014). Scenarios will become increasingly important for mid-latitude cities in the

temperate climate zone which will likely experience future increases in temperatures.

This makes it important to examine and understand urban governance constellations

and configurations and how they could shape future urban development paths with

regards to reducing vulnerability to urban heat. Hence, the overall aim of this paper

is to develop exploratory and anticipatory storylines. This is done using Berlin’s

current governance constellations as the basis for a case study. The storyline creation

presented here serves as a first step to building overall “scenario families” (IPCC

2000). More specifically, the research questions addressed are:

What is the city’s governance constellation for urban development? And how

do governance processes address urban heat on multiple spatial scales?

What governance conflicts does the constellation reveal concerning urban

development for reducing urban heat?

What are plausible exploratory and anticipatory storylines of urban climate

governance? And how do they relate to urban development pathways and

vulnerability to heat?

4.4. Methods and analytical framing

4.4.1. Case study

Berlin is the largest city and capital of Germany. It covers an area of

892 km2

and has

a population of about 3.5 million inhabitants (Statistical Office Berlin-Brandenburg

2012). Berlin is characterized by a humid continental mid-latitude climate with warm

to hot summers and cold winters (Peel et al. 2007). Daily mean temperatures of

19.0◦C

were observed during the two warmest summer months of the year from 2000

to 2010 (Dugord et al. 2014). Scientific studies show the heat risks for Berlin on

a small spatial scale (e.g., Dugord et al. 2014; Schuster et al. 2014). Dugord et

al. (2014) propose a potential heat risk map based on simulated air temperatures

and the concentration of infant and elderly population. The analysis associates the

inner city area with high risks. Other studies have presented heat mortality risk

maps that reveal mortality patterns of great spatial variety with potential risk hubs

also lying outside of the inner city ring (Schuster et al. 2014). Urban development

of the city state of Berlin is determined at two different levels of authority. The

Senate sets the general policy guidelines for the entire city and has, like the Berlin

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

parliament, legislative competencies. The Senate’s departments execute tasks of

citywide importance. The districts are dependent subdivisions of the central level

(Hoffmann and Schwenker 2010; Musil and Kirchner 2012)1.

Figure 4.1.: The case study area of Berlin2

4.4.2. Constellation Analysis

Constellation Analysis (CA) (Ohlhorst and Kr¨

oger 2015; Ohlhorst and Sch¨

on 2015;

Sch¨

on et al. 2007) has been employed to study urban governance capacities to adapt

to and mitigate urban heat, with a special focus on urban development. Following

Berkhout et al. (2002) we understand urban governance to refer to the level and

manner in which power and authority is exercised in cities by governmental as well

as non-governmental actors. The presented CA is based on results gathered through

expert interviews, expert workshops, and literature review.

Districts have the right to issue local land-use and landscape plans. It can be taken away in case

an area of city-wide importance is affected.

The environmental zone characterizes the inner city area which is the most densely populated

area of Berlin.

4.4. Methods and analytical framing

From February to July 2014, 10 semi-structured, problem-centered expert interviews

(cf. Witzel 2000) with Berlin administrative officials were conducted. Officials who

have a broad knowledge of the local climate policy and planning culture and represent

the different urban policy levels were interviewed. The interviewees were asked about

their perceptions of urban heat risks, urban development and related governance

strategies. The interviews were transcribed and analyzed using the method of content

analysis (Mayring 2004).

Between February and July 2014 Constellation Analysis workshops were conducted

with researchers from the “Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in

view of climate change” (UCaHS) project team in order to integrate interdisciplinary

scientific knowledge. In four sessions, environmental planners, social scientists, clima-

tologists, urban geographers, hydrologists and physics discussed the interrelations

of heat and urban development. In the different meetings researchers developed

constellations of how urban heat is and should be dealt with from their disciplinary

perspectives. The results of the two constellations were tied together under the

urban development governance perspective. In addition grey literature and policy

documents on climate governance and urban development were examined.

4.4.2.1. Description of constellation elements and relations

For Constellation Analyses the following elements are identified:

•

Actors: individual and groups of actors (e.g., human beings, organizations,

social movements)

•

Natural elements: materials, resources, plants and animals, landscape, and

natural phenomena

•Technical elements: artefacts (e.g., technical elements, procedures)

•

Symbolic elements: concepts, ideologies, standards, laws, discourses, institu-

tional, legal or economic factors (Ohlhorst and Kr¨

oger 2015; Ohlhorst and

Sch¨

on 2015).

Subsequently, the interplay of the elements is assessed. Constellation Analysis

classifies relations between the elements as: simple, directed, conflicting, missing and

oppositional

(Ohlhorst and Kr¨

oger 2015). Graphical illustration and a description

of the identified network of elements provide a multi-perspective appraisal of how a

problem can be structured (Sch¨

on et al. 2007).

Ohlhorst and Sch¨

on (2015) point out that the relations between elements can be undetermined or

completely missing. Spatial proximity or distance mapped in the constellation shows how close

or lose the relation between some elements is. Elements that explicitly and intentionally act

against one or multiple other elements are conflicting. If an element resists unintentionally to the

expectation or attribution of others the relation is called oppositional (Ohlhorst and Sch¨

on 2015).

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

For the Berlin Constellation Analysis dominant elements and relations were derived

from expert interviews, expert workshops and literature. Dominant elements and

relations are categories that repeatedly occurred within the empirical material.

4.4.2.2. Analysis of the constellation

The constellation elements display urban governance processes and strategies that

we arranged according to Bulkeley and Kern’s (2006) framework of urban climate

governance. The framework distinguishes modes of self-governing,governing through

enabling,governing by provision and governing by regulation. It was designed to

categorize the processes through which urban governing is orchestrated and the

institutional arrangements within which it takes place. As our analysis focuses

especially on governance constellations, the framework of urban climate governance

structured the variety of arrangements that exist.

Table 4.1.:

Framework of urban climate governance analysis (Bulkeley and Kern 2006;

Kern 2008)

Mode of governance Characteristics

Self-governing

Capacity of local government to govern its

own activities

Governing by provision Shaping of practices through the delivery

of particular forms of services and

resource

Governing by authority/regulation

Use of traditional forms of authority such

as regulation and direction, use of control

and sanctions

Governing by enabling Role of local government in facilitating,

co-ordinating and encouraging action

through partnership with private and

voluntary sector agencies and various

forms of community engagement

In addition, the concept of heat vulnerability (McGregor et al. 2007) was applied

for the Constellation Analysis. Urban development (governance) strategies are

categorized according to their aim of reducing exposure or sensitivity to heat.

4.4.2.3. Developing exploratory and anticipatory storylines

Three main governance conflicts were derived from the interactions of constellation

elements. We conceptualized the conflicts as arising from the different frames,

4.5. Results

values and beliefs of actors that are embedded in complex, sometimes constraining

institutional environments (Biesbroek et al. 2014).

The conflict dimensions characterizing urban development governance strategies

underlay the assumptions of the three exploratory storylines described in Table 4.2.

The storylines depict urban development paths up to 2040/2050 and what these paths

mean for vulnerability to heat should present conflicting dimensions get solved. The

exploratory storylines incorporate dynamic elements, like an increase in temperature

of 2.5 degrees in Berlin by 2050 (Lotze- Campen et al. 2009) as well as projections

for an increase in population from 3.59 to 3.74 million (SenStadtUm 2012).

The assumption underlying the exploratory storylines is that resolving the conflicting

dimensions makes the implementation of measures more likely. To find ways to

implement policies involves the identification of factors that reduce the identified

conflict dimensions- a problem that is focused on by the anticipatory storyline. The

anticipatory storyline (Table 4.3) reverses the analytic focus. It shows factors to

achieve the defined aim of “the heat adapted city” that are derived from our empiric

results. We define a “heat adapted city”, as a city that provides an urban governance

system able to integrate the topic of heat, which raises awareness for the risks and

facilitates the implementation of effective and efficient measures.

4.5. Results

4.5.1. Mapping the urban development constellation

Of the set of symbolic elements outlined by Ohlhorst and Sch¨

on (2015) we focus

on concepts, norms and institutional factors that structure governance processes.

Central to our constellation are policy and planning instruments guiding urban

development on different spatial scales. Their relations with other elements and

interplay with each other characterize urban adaptive capacity to urban heat.

We define urban heat and other environmental subjects of protection like soil and

noise as natural elements for our constellation. Urban heat as the main independent

variable is the focal element of the constellation. Technical elements in the depicted

constellation are tools for urban design to diminish the accumulation of heat. Ohlhorst

and Sch¨

on (2015) point out that an unambiguous designation of natural or technical

elements cannot always be achieved. In our case the elements of “Air circulation” or

“Increase of vegetation” abstract from a distinct classification. We also characterize

the urban configurations of building stock and new buildings as technical elements.

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

Figure 4.2.: Constellation Analysis of the urban adaptive capacity to heat in Berlin (barriers and potentials)

4.5. Results

Finally, actors play a vital role in the Berlin constellation. They handle policy and

planning instruments and are addressed by them.

The mapped constellation displays an overview of current urban development gov-

ernance that may appear static. It is a socially constructed network that needs

to be understood as place and time specific. Nevertheless, the constellation is the

product of a pathdependent history of institutional settings and cultures. It therefore

indicates a dynamic range of futures but also displays certain institutional limitations

of these pathways.

4.5.2. Urban development governance and urban heat - a detailed

description of the Berlin constellation

At the center of the constellation, urban heat and the different urban development

measures that target heat risk can be found. These technical elements have been

derived from a review of the literature and discussions in the constellation work-

shops. Kleerekoper et al. (2012) categorize elements into groups: vegetation (urban

forests/parks, street trees, private green in gardens and green roofs or fa¸cades),

water (fountains etc.), built forms (building density/geometry) and material (albedo

increase, permeable materials, thermal admittance of materials). Stone (2012) points

out the influence of “carbon cooling strategies” (energy efficiency measures, changes

in transport systems) to reduce waste heat. These measures influence the level

of heat human beings are exposed to in urban settings. Some of them have been

shown to also exert a positive influence on sensitivity to heat. Green spaces can

improve the urban microclimate and human health. Nature experience advances

health conditions resulting from and leading to higher stress levels like diseases of the

respiratory system (e.g., Lafortezza et al. 2009; Lee and Maheswaran 2011). A recent

study suggests a strong connection between health, fitness and individual heat stress

providing evidence that urban development governance which increases activity levels

of citizens could reduce the sensitivity to urban heat stress proactively (Schuster et

al. in preparation). Heat prevention measures can be applied at the building stock

as well as new building sites. Both are targeted by different governance and planning

instruments with the aim of urban heat reduction.

4.5.2.1. Governing through authority/regulation

The symbolic elements, available policy and planning instruments and their capacity to

influence heat risk reduction play a central role in shaping the city. Urban planning is

the traditional mode of governing urban development itthrough authority/regulation.

Planning instruments target different spatial scales. Various instruments take account

of the local climate as one of numerous aspects to be considered in planning processes.

However, there are many uncertainties as to how to operationalize this claim.

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

Federal Building Code

Since 2011 the German Federal Building Code states that

the mandatory instruments of urban planning, that is the comprehensive and local

land-use plans, need to foster climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban

development and secure a humane environment (§1(5) German Federal Building

Code). The federal legislator expanded the legal framework beyond current risks

arising from local climatic conditions. Urban planning is asked to handle risks specific

to climate change.

Greiving (2009- 2010) points to one of the central difficulties arising from the difference

between new planning requirements for climate change and traditional conceptions

of urban planning. Planning used to refer to experiences made in the past relying

on the statistical reoccurrence of weather and climate. Finding ways to integrate

uncertainty concerning future climatic conditions challenges established planning

routines (Greiving 2009- 2010). Patterns of heat exposure and sensitivity of people

and infrastructure are highly spatially and temporally diverse. Urban heat is therefore

especially difficult to take into account in the planning process (i.a. Carter 2011;

Klok and Klueck 2015).

Comprehensive land-use plan

Mandatory concepts of land-use for every German

city are fixed in the comprehensive land-use plans, supplemented with landscape pro-

grams which integrate environmental objectives. In Berlin both planning instruments

were amended systematically for the last time in 1994 (SenStadtUm 1994a; SenStad-

tUm 1994b). In the meantime, the documents have been further modified, making

comprehensive land-use planning an instrument displaying short-term or immediate

urban development. This practice erodes the functions of the instrument as a guide

for longer term planning. Not systematically including new knowledge concerning

the urban climate in connection with demographic developments into mandatory

planning instruments misses out on chances to ensure the adequate consideration of

climate related impacts on lower planning scales.

Local land-use plan

As the main mandatory planning instrument the local land-use

plan, which is mainly issued by the district administrations

, regulates the possible

ways of building in the city. Local land-use plans can influence small-scale heat

exposure by determining which parts of an estate can be built upon or need to remain

unsealed, the location of buildings, the establishment or preservation of green and

open spaces as well as open air corridors, and even obligations for fa¸cade greening and

other measures (SenStadtUm 2011). When issuing a local land-use plan public and

private interests have to be considered and well balanced (§1(5&7) German Federal

Building Code). Cost intense heat reduction measures can easily be outweighed by

Exceptions: developments that are of interest for the whole of the city or of exceptional significance

as well as planning and measures related to Berlin’s function as the German capital are withdrawn

from the district’s authority and transferred to the Senate’s.

4.5. Results

investors’ interests (SenStadtUm 2014a). Local climate is just one of many different

legally protected environmental goods that should be considered in the planning

process. Local land-use plans are overloaded with requests tied to noise prevention,

biodiversity protection, and many other issues, which makes it difficult for the topic

of climate to gain ground. Traditionally planning practice in Berlin is characterized

by a dominance of concern for noise prevention. The subject of noise prevention

is characterized by guidelines and orientation thresholds (e.g., DIN 18005-1) which

makes it easier for planning officials to define binding noise standards in a local

land-use plan.

Biotope area factor

Another instrument to regulate urban development in Berlin

is the internationally much referenced Biotope Area Factor (BAF) (e.g., Carter et

al. 2015, resp. “green area ratio”: Lakes and Kim 2012; Stone 2012). The BAF can

be included in the local landscape plan, a supplement to the local land-use plan.

It assesses the surface area covered by biomass and it serves to create a balance

among current land-use forms like residential areas, business and industrial sites,

infrastructure and green spaces (Lakes and Kim 2012). By using the instrument,

ecological standards can be fixed when an urban site is being developed or modified.

Acknowledging the effects of urban green on health, an application of the BAF can

reduce citizens’ sensitivity to heat in addition to potentially reducing their heat

exposure. Yet, landscape plans are instruments that are only sporadically employed

in current planning practices as their use is optional (SenStadtUm 2011). Even if a

BAF is part of a landscape plan, its inclusion in the mandatory local land-use plan

is not required. The investor’s inclination to accept such regulations and the district

authorities’ willingness to bind the investor are decisive prerequisites for an effective

application of such an instrument.

Urban development contract

Urban development contracts do not entirely repre-

sent regulatory approaches, but modes of governing by enabling play a role. They are

special forms of public service contracts which bind public authorities and investors

as well as landowners. Fixing the layout of properties or a binding land-use for

heat reduction are possible applications of the instrument. Urban development

contracts could demand roof or fa¸cade greening or an increased albedo (e.g., BMVBS

2013). In contexts were public authorities face tight budgets, urban development

contracts could ensure the inclusion of measures against heat in the building process

by the investor

. However, in Berlin executive urban planning officials on the district

level point out that due to economic competitiveness between the districts, officially

recommended standards have been compromised in negotiations with investors (e.g.,

plant species composition).

5See the Statistical Report of the Statistical Office Berlin-Brandenburg (2013)

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

City Climate Development Plan (StEP Klima)

As a means of governing by au-

thority the Berlin City Climate Development Plan (StEP Klima) is the strategic

document combining political objectives of climate change adaptation and urban

development (SenStadtUm 2011). It takes heat reduction explicitly into account

and puts a focus on the risks identified within the city-center ring. The StEP Klima

currently only plays a marginal role in Berlin’s urban development. Intended as a

strategic, informal planning instrument by the Senate Department for Urban Devel-

opment and the Environment, StEP Klima operates without substantial financial

support for the implementation of aspired measures from the Department of Finance.

Being a non-mandatory instrument, which maps risks at a relatively low spatial

resolution, officials on the district level consider StEP Klima unable to exert much

influence on the actual planning practice. Furthermore, officials emphasize the lack of

reconciliation between different urban planning objectives as an impediment to StEP

Klima’s ability to play a more central role in planning processes. Urban development

on all Berlin governance levels is dominated by the political objective to provide more

dwelling space. Strategic aims for the provision of new housing are documented in

the “Urban Development Plan Housing”. So far this instrument does not enforce the

concurrent consideration of climate change adaptation needs, but backs up building

projects even if these projects compromise green and open space. In dense cities

the exposure of citizens to urban heat is believed to be higher. However, dense

urban forms have also been shown to exert cooling effects due to shading (e.g.,

Ali-Toudert and Mayer 2007). Stone (2012) also stresses that the quantity of excess

heat generated per person in lower density settings is more than in higher density

urban cores. Sensitivity to heat may also be reduced in a positive way as compact

cities could enable a more active lifestyle leading to heat stress reduction (Schuster

et al. in preparation), an argument not acknowledged by StEP Klima and current

planning practices. To reconcile Berlin’s mission statement goals for a “compact city”

and “city of short distances” with the requirements of climate change adaptation

would still demand an assessment of the urban heat impacts of urban development

projects currently considered unrealistic by urban planners. Climate change mitiga-

tion measures have also been included in the StEP Klima. They are considered as

means to tackle global warming. Their potentials to reduce local exposure to heat are

not acknowledged. Stone (2012) points out that applying energy efficiency measures

for example in power generation and reducing vehicle transport are effective means

for decreasing waste heat in cities. Currently more than 50% of electricity in Berlin

is gained by combined heat and power generation

. Air-conditioning is not widely in

use in Berlin (Buchin et al. 2015). Nevertheless, officials point out that regulations

aimed at improving the energy efficiency of buildings are not widely executed.

Heat adaptation strategies, like designing climate responsive buildings by applying

green roofs or fa¸cades, are also not yet recognized as effective strategies for decreasing

greenhouse gas emissions (Buchin et al. 2015). Climate change mitigation dominates

http://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de/umwelt/energie/kwk/de/berlin.shtml, accessed 20.11.2015

4.5. Results

administrative discourses and practices on climatic issues, marginalizing instead of

integrating the topic of local adaptation to climate change.

4.5.2.2. Governing by enabling

Even though the informal StEP Klima planning instrument has not exerted much

influence on mandatory planning, other governance mechanisms emerged in the

background and promoted some of its aims for the building stock. The “City Climate

Development Plan” is supplemented with the so-called “Urban Landscape Strategy”,

a strategic document putting greening measures in the center of the Berlin adaptation

strategy. In sharp contrast to citywide strategic goals, district officials point out that

maintaining green space is difficult due to budgetary restrictions. Campaigns like

the urban tree planting initiative are part of the greening strategy. As a means of

governing by enabling the campaign seeks to encourage citizens and local companies

to fund the re-planting of lost trees on streets. Companies also invest in the initiative

as a compensation measure for building elsewhere. The public authority takes the

role as enabling institution, but also gives additional financial support, once a fixed

amount of money has been donated. It should be noted that recently planted trees

cannot provide adequate shade to reduce heat exposure. Systematic urban heat

reduction implies a consideration of scientific recommendations for locating greenery

(see Stiles et al. 2014). Public authorities often fail to steer urban development

leaving it to private economic or civil society actors. The Berlin authorities are

thus enabling institutions for civil engagement within urban development. Urban

gardening initiatives, for example, transform most often derelict land into green

spaces serving the reduction of urban heat exposure as well as reducing sensitivity

by enforcing active engagement of citizens. The Berlin administration encourages

these projects indirectly by mediating conflicts, establishing supportive conditions

and helping with building a network of initiatives (Berlin House of Representatives

2013).

4.5.2.3. Self-governing

Self-governing mechanisms for the authorities’ building stock are currently limited

to the application of energy efficiency measures, a source of reducing waste heat.

It is not yet on the political agenda to install green roofs, fa¸cade planting or a

higher albedo value on public buildings to set an example for private owners. These

measures are potentially subject to rejection as they are perceived as unprofitable

and potential causes of conflicts with tenants (SenStadtUm 2014b).

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

4.5.2.4. Governing by provision

Funding instruments for urban climate issues are often provided by supra-local

governance levels, like the Berlin Program for Sustainable Development derived from

the European ERDF funds (SenStadtUm, n.d.). Reverting to upper governance

level’s financial support programs contradicts with challenges posed by local climate

risk: financial support is often just short term and project-based whereas heat

prevention measures need long term commitment (maintenance of green, climate

change adaptation projects). On the district level officials with knowledge to make

use of funding opportunities are often missing.

4.6. Urban development storylines of future urban heat

4.6.1. Conflict dimensions for the governance of heat in urban

development

The Constellation Analysis revealed conflicting governance dimensions that hinder

a systematic implementation of heat reduction measures. These conflicts work as

analytical focal points to derive the exploratory storylines for urban development.

The main conflicting dimensions are:

1. Competing policy objectives

Urban governance is dominated by the goals of creating new dwellings and

providing space for investors. These aims are currently implemented in a way

that does not consider heat reduction. There are also other environmental risks

competing with climatic aspects for acknowledgement in the planning process.

Political awareness of the problem is low.

2. Conflicting spatial risk perception

Risk perception is guided by the climate change adaptation plan StEP Klima,

which focuses on urban heat risk in the city center area. In so doing the spatial

diversity of heat risks is denied and potential vulnerabilities are not tackled.

3. Competing objectives of scales of governance and coordination barriers

Conflicting notions of responsibilities and respective endowment with resources

between the district and city level as well as other actors lead to an overall loss

of potential for strategic risk reduction action.

4.6.2. Exploratory storylines of future urban heat

The baseline storyline shows urban development and possible implications for vul-

nerability to heat in 2040/2050 assuming current conflict dimensions remain stable.

4.6. Urban development storylines of future urban heat

Storyline 2 depicts the progression of vulnerability to heat if the coordination prob-

lems between urban governance levels are solved. Present planning instruments are

applied for heat reduction in the city center - a spatial distribution of precautionary

measures suggested by the adaptation strategy StEP Klima. Storyline 3 explores the

question of how vulnerability to heat would change if all conflict dimensions were to

be solved. All districts and the city work in a coordinated manner on the policy goal

of heat reduction. The policy aim is harmonized with other, currently competing

goals of urban development. Planning and policy instruments handle the reduction

of potential vulnerabilities to heat for the whole of Berlin acknowledging the diverse

spatial distribution of sensitivity and exposure. The storylines are differentiated into

three spatial levels of the block, the district as well as the city. They highlight the

various strategies that the resolution of each governance conflict brings about on

different governance levels.

The policies found in the different storylines represent the state of urban capacity to

heat in 2040/2050. The policies are not static. Heat reduction measures are likely to

be implemented in a proactively (storyline 2, 3), but also reactively as temperatures

continue to climb (likely storyline 1). Quay (2010) shows that urban governments

can use decision frameworks that break up urban adaptation to climate change into

incremental steps.

“Signposts” are indicators that assist governments to anticipate when action needs to

be taken in order to respond effectively to achieve the aims of a specific storyline

(Quay 2010). These indicators are usually based on monitoring quantitative data and

represent defined, but flexible thresholds for action. Defining “signposts” requires

scientific knowledge and political negotiation processes. Possible indicators for urban

heat risks could involve monitoring urban temperature change and setting a threshold

similar to the global 2 degree target. The frequency of heat wave periods, but also

social factors like hospital admissions or a combination of risk dimensions could also

serve as “signposts” for action. Furthermore Quay (2010) speaks of “trigger points”

for urban governance action. These triggers are not necessarily climatic changes.

Local public opinion, external socio-economic and political factors or the availability

of new technologies can also set off a change in urban development practices.

The Constellation Analysis showed that political awareness about the risks of urban

heat in Berlin has been triggered. Interviewees pointed to the 2007 IPCC Fourth

Assessment Report and a report of the Berlin Climate Protection Council, a policy

advisory board, as trigger points that resulted in climate change adaptation gaining

political attention. There has not, however, been much strategic action related to

implementation.

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

Table 4.2.: Exploratory storylines of adaptive capacity to urban heat in Berlin 2040/2050

Baseline Storyline 1 City center Storyline 2 Comprehensive city Storyline 3

Dominant conflict

dimensions

Competing policy objectives

Conflicting spatial risk perception

Competing scales of governance

Characteristics of

governance

strategies for

urban

development

Urban governance according to

existing political and planning

instruments

Measures implemented proactively

according to the scope of current

planning and governance capacities

Measures implemented incrementally

and proactively according to advanced

planning and governance capacities

Low political attention for heat

reduction

Political attention focused on the city

center

Political attention for heat reduction

for the entire city

City-wide StEP Klima marginalized by other

development objectives

Implementation of measures according

to StEP Klima

Short-term implementation of

measures relates to StEP Klima

assumptions and therefore focuses on

the city center

Long-term implementation goals to

tackle exposure and sensitivity to heat

risks throughout the entire city

Higher density urban development

throughout the entire city without

implementation of heat reduction

measures

Paradigms of compact city and city of short distances linked with the

implementation of heat mitigation and adaptation aims

Incentives for building higher rather

than disperse building

City-wide Comprehensive land-use plan adapted and updated following trends in

current urban development in the city

Comprehensive land-use plan includes

short-term and long-term land-use

possibilities considering projections of

climatic and demographic development

continued on next page

4.6. Urban development storylines of future urban heat

Table 4.2 – continued from previous page –

Baseline Storyline 1 City center Storyline 2 Comprehensive city Storyline 3

Climate change mitigation measures and adaptation measures compete

against instead of complement each other

Climate change adaptation and

mitigation measures checked on

mutual benefits, e.g., energy efficiency

measures applied explicitly to reduce

urban waste heat

Districts Prioritizing the center districts in the

short term

Prioritization of other urban

development concerns

Inner city districts follow strategy of

urban climate protection, focusing on

greening measures

In the long term all districts follow

strategy of urban climate protection

Districts lack their own strategies No district strategies Priority action analysis according to

sensitivity and exposure maps on the

district level

Local land-use plans issued mostly

without considerable implementation

incentives for heat measures

Local climate issues play an influential

role in mandatory planning (Albedo

increase, green space enhancement, air

corridors), especially within the city

center ring

Local land-use plans deliberately

increase open space ratio instead of

building development

Temporal building permits

BAF not commonly used in planning

BAF and urban development contracts

used strategically to ensure urban heat

reduction in the city center

Short-term enhanced BAF ratios

Districts Civic engagement in urban gardening

initiatives supported by urban

planning administration, but less and

less space available

Sealing ground in city center only

possible with climate adapted green

space compensation located in heat

affected areas of the city center

Sealing ground is restricted to a

limited amount of space in the different

districts following strict assessment of

climate impacts

continued on next page

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

Table 4.2 – continued from previous page –

Baseline Storyline 1 City center Storyline 2 Comprehensive city Storyline 3

Mature trees planted by tree planting

initiative, but planted in a way that is

not necessarily optimal for shading

purposes

Extension of untouchable green and

open spaces

Authorities’ building stock equipped

with energy efficiency measures

Authorities’ building stock adapted in the short-term to heat by applying

green roof and green fa¸cades to set an example for private investors

No politically encouraged use of urban facilities like swimming pools or

libraries for reactive heat protection

Urban facilities as “cooling centers”

and public drinking fountains

Building/block Heat reduction measures in buildings

applied according to market demands Heat reduction measures in new

buildings, like palisades/roof or fa¸cade

greening applied

mandatorily in the city center

Heat reduction measures like

palisades/roof or fa¸cade greening

applied

mandatorily at new buildings and

building stock throughout the entire

city

High costs of measures like

palisades/roof and fa¸cade greening

Extended city-wide use of

air-conditioning

Reducing sensitivity to urban heat by means of urban development not

politically enforced

Proactive reduction of sensitivity

due to short distances to important fa-

cilities: expansion of cycling/walking

facilities encouraged

Implications for

population

vulnerability to

heat

Selectively protected city; not necessar-

ily the most sensitive are reached by

measures; exposure reduced for those

who can afford it.

Vulnerabilities not strategically tar-

geted by urban development

Urban planning measures aim at the

amount of people that are vulnerable

through exposure in a dense city cen-

ter; vulnerabilities induced by sensitiv-

ity are not explicitly targeted

Reducing vulnerabilities induced by ex-

posure as well as sensitivity are ap-

proached by means of urban planning

and policy

100

4.6. Urban development storylines of future urban heat

The baseline storyline assumes that means of adaptive capacity to heat will develop

as byproducts of other urban development targets. The implementation of strategic

measures targeting the risks of urban heat explicitly is not politically enforced,

but might happen voluntarily. This strategy implies a potential increase in the

vulnerability to urban heat.

The trend in storyline 2 shows a state that might occur if current planning instruments

are applied for the purpose of heat risk reduction. Enhanced implementation action

represented by this storyline needs a trigger point to be put into force. Its implications

for the vulnerability to heat are spatially limited to decreasing exposure in the city

center.

As shown in storyline 3 substantial influence on risk and vulnerability can be taken if

the spatial risk perception induced by the climate change adaptation strategy (StEP

Klima) is extended. Storyline 3 demonstrates how flexible heat policies incrementally

lead to an adapted city by 2040/2050. Like in storyline 2 implementation is triggered

by specific events or conditions. But heat adaptation and mitigation decisions are

broken into different steps, targeting spatial hot spots in an incremental way before

they occur. As instruments are flexible, it gives decision-makers the opportunity

to react to new “signposts” signaling the need for action as temperatures are rising.

Governance actively tries to reduce exposure and identifies areas with a population

of high sensitivity.

4.6.3. Anticipatory storyline “The heat adapted city”

The anticipatory storyline shows urban governance strategies that would be prereq-

uisites to achieving a “heat-adapted city”, an ideal city where conflicting governance

dimensions are solved.

We consider prerequisites to achieve the heat adapted city as the integration of

heat policy into the governance and planning system and the commitment of actors

to implementing the policy. The anticipatory storyline shows the importance of

communicating the risks and possible coping strategies at and between all governance

levels. Initiating public debates also seems to have a decisive impact. Communicating

risks and strategies resolves the conflict dimensions that keep current governance

processes from acknowledging urban heat in development planning and action.

101

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

Table 4.3.:

Anticipatory storyline “The heat adapted city of Berlin in 2040/2050”,

conflict dimensions targeted shown by the numbers in brackets

Anticipatory storyline

City-wide

Promote a public debate about heat risks and what to

invest to reduce them involving relevant actors from all

governance levels, stakeholders and citizens (1,2,3)

Define orientation goals/ trigger points/ signposts of

acceptable levels of heat in different urban structures

(1,2)

Pass legal agreements like a Climate Act to enforce

aims of non-mandatory instruments like the

adaptation plan (StEP Klima) and expand budgets to

(co-) finance heat reduction measures to show a strong

political commitment (1)

Clear allocation of respective responsibilities of private

and public actors, make competences known to them

and accepted by them (3)

Provision of communication channels for actors

involved in dealing with local climate (3)

Districts Climate commissioner as integrative figure to

coordinate mainstreaming of topics in all kinds of

district urban development departments and between

districts and city-wide governance levels (3)

Strengthen link between urban development officials

and scientific actors, constant exchange of knowledge

concerning spatially diverse risks and possible

administrative coping strategies (2)

Training for planners to handle heat by means of

urban planning and to acquire funding sources

provided by different governance levels (3)

Building/block Counseling of investors/architects how to invest in

heat reduction measures by taking advantage of public

funding (1,2)

102

4.7. Discussion

There are many benefits to a systematic Constellation Analysis of urban development

governance and local climate. Taking the example of Berlin, this study has identified

relevant actors, and technical, natural and symbolic elements and as well as their

capacity to contribute to urban heat reduction.

The Constellation Analysis is a useful tool for examining the barriers to and potentials

for reducing vulnerability to heat that lie within societal and political processes. Our

results complement the findings of Stone et al. (2012) on available urban governance

instruments with an analysis of their actual use for heat reduction purposes.

To analyze the potentials for reducing urban heat vulnerability in urban development

policy, we distinguish adaptive policy action into instruments that target sensitivity

and those that decrease the exposure to heat. The Constellation Analysis showed

that current urban development policy instruments predominantly concentrate on

greening measures as means to adapt the urban system to the impacts of climate

change. Reducing exposure and sensitivity are inseparable properties of greening

measures (Smit and Wandel 2006). Only recently, studies point out the decisive

influence of the population’s fitness and its sensitivity to heat (Schuster et al. in

preparation). This opens up new perspectives for heat and urban development

governance. Precautionary strategies focus on raising activity levels of the population

to tackle their sensitivity to heat. Urban development policy instruments intended to

increase the numbers of pedestrians, bicycle use or other sports activities should be

considered by policy-makers. They are not yet present in current urban development

discourses and therefore have not been included into this Constellation Analysis.

Future studies could give attention to this aspect.

The Constellation Analysis displays only a broad overview of Berlin’s urban develop-

ment governance for heat mitigation and adaptation. We reduced the complexity of

the Berlin governance constellation to the most dominant relations revealed by our

interviews, the workshops as well as relevant policy and planning documents. This

was a necessary prerequisite for building future storylines. By taking a perspective

that goes beyond the analysis of the present, the study took on a different perspective

than previous ones in that field. Extending the view to possible future development

paths and how to achieve them advances Constellation Analysis. Socio-economic

scenarios and their narrative parts are value-laden, subjective assumptions that need

to involve the perspectives of the users of the scenario outputs (Berkhout et al. 2002).

Constellation Analysis is a suitable approach to realizing that demand as it integrates

a broad range of expert perspectives.

Berkhout et al. (2002: 93f.) stress the importance of including socio-economic

scenarios, especially governance storylines, into climate change assessments. The

authors emphasize that one aim of using storyline approaches must be to “simplify

and clarify to create archetypes of commonly held narratives that can help reorient

103

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

collective action” (Berkhout et al. 2002: 87). Our storylines were reduced to the

most dominant characteristics of urban development derived from the constellation

and only give a very broad overview of urban climate governance measures for the

city.

To provide a rich texture to the future narratives a threefold scalar approach was taken

that aims at the city-wide, district and block level and the governance measures and

respective exploratory storylines. This approach led to simplified but differentiated

future perspectives on the subject. Deepening this approach could include further

downscaling to assess governance measures targeting different urban structure types

and different governance storylines about adaptation to urban heat.

The storylines also display simplified developments that are characterized by con-

tinuity. The underlying assumption is a steady increase in temperatures due to

climate change and a resulting aggravation of the urban heat island effect. Gover-

nance measures on urban development are not designed to take preventive action

against weather extremes like heat waves even though temperature extremes may be

a common characteristic of the climate in the future (SenGUV 2009; Solomon et al.

2007).

Using storylines is a way to take account of difficulties in introducing climate change

adaptation measures. Among the challenges that scenario processes can address are

the uncertainty, spatial diversity, social controversy and complexity (Mees. et al.

2014) related to the impacts of a changing local climate. We believe that Constellation

Analysis which provides a basis for developing storylines can be useful in finding

ways to react in a locally specific and fitting way to climate-induced challenges.

4.8. Conclusion

Urbanization processes result in distinct urban fabrics, ecosystems, climates, societies,

economies and governance systems. These features of the city are mutually influencing.

Accordingly when trying to determine the relationship between heat risks, the city

and respective vulnerabilities ideally all of these components will be considered

(Wamsler et al. 2013).

Constellation Analysis and storylines can serve as first steps in building scenarios

tied to urban heat vulnerability. Qualitatively identifying the locally available

means to adaptive capacity allows the building of storylines and makes it possible

to comprehend the features of local vulnerability. It would be very difficult to

do so quantitatively, as the quantitative primary data that would be needed to

comprehensively grasp the spatially, temporally and socially diffuse distribution of

vulnerability to urban heat is typically not available (Zaidi and Pelling 2013).

Nevertheless, a combination with quantitative modeling could add further insights

104

4.9. Acknowledgements

into the spatial distribution of urban heat risks, as well as exposure and sensitivity

patterns. Thereby, the methodological benefits of both in-depth Constellation

Analysis for developing storylines and quantitative spatially explicit modeling of

possible future scenarios could be combined to gain a broader analysis of urban heat

vulnerabilities. For a model-based scenario analysis for urban heat risk an inclusion

of trigger points that might change policy action could add valuable insights into the

development of risks.

These comprehensive scenarios can provide shared pictures of possible futures that

enable decision-makers to collectively change their behavior (Berkhout et al. 2002).

They open up new opportunities to discuss available governance measures with

regards to vulnerability and might encourage learning processes to heat-proof the

city.

4.9. Acknowledgements

The study was part of the Research Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and Heat Stress

in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change” (www.UCaHS.org) funded by the

German Research Foundation (DFG) (KO 2952/2-1; SCHR 1254/2-1;LA 2525/2-1).

The authors thank all experts for their willingness to share their knowledge in the

expert interviews and workshops.

105

4. Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using CA

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114

5. Climate change adaptation to heat

risk at the local level: A Bayesian

network analysis of local land-use plan

implementation

Published title:

Climate change adaptation at the local level: A

Bayesian network analysis of local land-use plan

implementation

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Donner, J., Sprondel, N., K¨

oppel, J.

Journal:

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and

Management

Volume 19, Issue 02, June 2017

Year of publication: 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333217500107

Electronic version of this article published as [Journal of Environmental

Assessment Policy and Management, Volume 19, Issue 02, 2017, 29 Pages]

[https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333217500107]



[copyright World Scientific

Publishing Company] [https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/jeapm]

115

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

5.1. Abstract

Urban and environmental planning plays an important role in climate change adap-

tation. In this area, most German cities have developed adaptation strategies, i.a.

tackling growing urban heat effects. Still in question, however, is how these mea-

sures will be implemented at the local level. The goal of this paper is to assess the

implementation probability of climate change adaptation measures via local land-use

plans using a Bayesian Network approach. Six plans were analyzed in-depth. We

used expert interviews to estimate the likelihood of implementing climate-adapted

measures. Whether a local land-use plan stimulates climate change adaptation de-

pends on a combination of different factors e.g., the setting of the borough councilor

in exchange with an investor, in a next step the willingness of the plans’ creator to

implement adaptation strategies as well as an existing environmental report.

Keywords

Bayesian Network, climate change adaptation, urban heat, urban governance strate-

gies

5.2. Introduction

Hand in hand with its growth as a major research topic, climate change mitigation

has become a significant political topic in the last decade (McGeehin and Mirabelli

2001). Rooftop solar arrays and wind farms are highly visible components of low

carbon energy production: these steps towards combating climate change are rec-

ognizable to everyone. Furthermore, the effectiveness of mitigating greenhouse gas

emissions is quantifiable (Ford and Berrang-Ford 2016). Measures to accompany

common mitigation policies and enable adaptation to climate change impacts (here

after referred to as adaptation strategies) are also essential. Even though general

objectives and guidelines for adaptation measures have been identified (Keskitalo

2010), implementation rarely occurs to a sufficient degree (Biesbroek et al. 2010;

Berrang-Ford et al. 2011; Knoepfel et al. 2011). Clearly, adaptation is not a barrier

free process (Biesbroek et al. 2014). Although these barriers are not yet fully under-

stood, there is a dedicated body of research on their causes (Biesbroek et al. 2013;

Biesbroek et al. 2014). One of the many constraints to implementation identified

in adaptation research is the failure to translate broad adaptation objectives into

concrete frameworks to guide the day-to-day actions of administrative staff involved

with the issue (Greiving and Fleischhauer 2012; Carmin et al. 2012; Wamsler et al.

2012).

116

5.2. Introduction

Dealing with urban heat is a major challenge for local governments and is generally

understudied as part of climate change adaptation (Mees et al. 2015). City residents

have a significantly lower well-being during heat waves and many researchers highlight

an association between higher temperatures and increased mortality (see, for example,

Breitner et al. 2013; Kravchenko et al. 2013; Scherer et al. 2013; Scherber et al.

2013; Harlan et al. 2014; McGeehin and Mirabelli 2001).

The latest IPCC report (2014) emphasizes the likelihood that cities will face higher

levels of exposure to the risks posed by changing global climate. Stone et al. (2012)

and others (Koomen and Diogo 2015; Kleerekoper et al. 2012; Oke 1982) have

shown that, as a result of the land-use patterns they create, cities also induce higher

temperatures than the surrounding countryside. The loss of vegetation and related

evapotranspiration, dark surfaces with low albedo which absorb and then radiate

heat, building configurations that trap heat, and the concentrated generation of

heat from anthropogenic activities all contribute to higher temperatures in cities

(Oke 1982). Also within the city, distinctive microclimates evolve due to different

surface structures which can create small scale hot spots of urban heat risks (Lowry

1967). Internationally climate scenarios especially for indoor heat stress do not play

an important role yet. The German research unit Urban Climate and Heat Stress

(UCaHS) try to address the complex scientific questions under the topic of heat stress

in mid-latitude cities. Therefore, climate modifications especially for indoor heat

stress as well as different heat stress scenarios got analyzed (J¨

anicke et al. 2015;

J¨

anicke et al. 2016; Mahlkow et al. 2016; Walikewitz et al. 2015). They figured out

that indoor heat stress is especially dangerous for the citizens but further research is

needed (J¨

anicke et al. 2015; Walikewitz et al. 2015).

Several German cities have developed plans for climate adaptation and mitigation

(Donner et al. 2015). Nevertheless, in Germany studies are lacking, however, as to

what extent the measures outlined in these plans are implemented and how they are

considered at the local government level.

5.2.1. Research Question

It has been identified in the literature that local land-use plans are well suited to

implement adaptation measures (Battis et al. 2010; Birkmann et al. 2012; Kumar

and Geneletti 2015; Mahlkow and Donner 2016; Measham et al. 2011). Local

land-use plans can determine which parts of a land parcel can be built upon or needs

to remain unsealed. It can also regulate the position of buildings, open air corridors,

and green spaces such as those used for fa¸cade greening (Birkmann et al. 2012;

Kumar and Geneletti 2015; SenStadtUm 2011) (see Table 5.1). The level of the local

land-use plan can consist of different types of urban uses and as building structures,

any number of individual measures could be applied. Importantly, existing private

buildings and courtyards pose difficulties for official access and action. Paragraph 1

117

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

(5) German Federal Building Code (2013) indicates that development planning needs

to ensure a human environment, to protect natural resources and to develop in a

manner which is responsible as regards the general climate.

The aim of this paper was to explore important process points where adaptation

measures against the heat section can be best integrated into the planning process

and which steps must be taken to implement them. To figure out how much “weight”

and how much influence the individual instruments have, we analyzed which planning

instruments facilitate the implementation of heat risk strategies in the course of local

land-use planning in Berlin, Germany.

5.2.2. Study site

The city of Berlin, Germany, is a typical example of a mid-latitude city facing urban

heat risks and the problem of developing policy and planning strategies to handle

them. Berlin is the capital city and the largest and most populated city in Germany,

with an area of

892 km2

and around 3.5 million inhabitants (Statistical Office Berlin-

Brandenburg 2015). One of the main problems faced by the city is a strong pressure

on open spaces, as numerous new projects are being realized (SenStadtUm 2016b).

This will only be exacerbated in the next decade, as the population is expected

to increase (SenStadtUm 2015a): current studies estimate that by 2030 Berlin’s

population will exceed 3.8 million (Berlin.de 2016a). The city has a humid continental

mid-latitude climate that is characterized by cold winters and warm mild summers

(Berlin.de 2016b; Peel et al. 2007). With 56% of its surface area taken up by buildings

(e.g., residential uses) and transport or infrastructural facilities, Berlin is also affected

by the urban heat island effect. Climate change projections calculate an increase in

temperatures of

2.5◦C

for Berlin by 2050, with warmer nights as well as more extreme

heat events (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009). Scherer et al. (2013) have estimated a

conservative average heat stress related death rate at about

1600

people per year

(app. 5% of all annual deaths) for the city. Gabriel and Endlicher (2011) highlight

the positive correlation between the mortality rate and heat events in Berlin.

Berlin has two tiers of public administration: the Senate and its districts. The

Senate defines the general policy guidelines for the whole city and explicates tasks

of city-wide importance (Mahlkow and Donner 2016). Other tasks, such as the

local land-use plans, are to be handled by the 12 districts of Berlin (Hoffmann and

Schwenker 2010; Musil and Kirchner 2012).

In 2011, the city of Berlin set up its adaptation strategy to tackle the local impacts

of climate change (SenStadtUm 2011). The City Climate Development Plan is an

informal planning instrument that addresses Berlin’s objectives concerning climate

change adaptation related to urban development. The City Climate Development

Plan focuses on adaptation to climate change and protecting the climate (mitigation)

with particular concern for spatial and urban planning. Its goals aim to tackle rising

118

5.2. Introduction

temperatures primarily at the neighborhood level: from an increase in albedo to

securing the provision of green space close to residential areas (SenStadtUm 2011).

After the recommended actions for land-use planning were developed in the City

Climate Development Plan in 2011, the Berlin Senate proposed the creation of a

Comprehensive Adaptation Framework Berlin (AFOK) in the middle of 2016 for all

urban infrastructures and areas of urban life likely to be affected by climate change.

As part of the AFOK, the establishment of adaptation steps spanning different

timelines was developed (SenStadtUm 2015). We will not examine the Berlin Energy

and Climate Mitigation Program and Comprehensive Adaptation Framework Berlin

(AFOK) in depth. It is however important to note that these programs also shape

the discourse of the Senate Department regarding climate change adaptation.

In June 2016, the Senate Department adopted a more concrete form of the City Cli-

mate Development Plan and created the City Climate Development Plan KONKRET

(SenStadtUm 2016a). It’s is similar to the City Climate Development Plan in that it

is an informal tool, but it also provides practical and concrete recommendations for

adaptation in Berlin.

5.2.3. The planning system of Berlin

This section provides an overview of Environmental Assessment in urban land-use

planning in Berlin and explains which instruments can play a role in the climate

adaptation process.

Environmental Assessment (EA)

An EA is described in an environmental report if a project may affect humans

(including human health), animals, plants, biodiversity, soil, water, air, climate,

landscape or cultural assets. Not all local land-use plans require an EA. The annex

to the EA Law lists all cases in which an EA has to be carried out. This pertains to

very large potentially dangerous plants or projects for people and the environment.

The fact is that local land-use plans which have been created under §13a German

Federal Building Code (2013) do not need to be subject to an EA. This means that

the local land-use plan, created under §13a German Federal Building Code (2013),

can be processed using an expedited procedure in cases of re-densification, where

land is being restored, or for certain other measures of internal development. In these

cases, the area should be less than

20,000 m2

in size. Or, if the permissible floor area

is between

20,000 m2

and

70,000 m2

- a rough examination can dictate that the local

land-use plan is not expected to have significant environmental effects.

119

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

The Landscape program

The Landscape Program is a strategic planning instrument to manage integrative

environmental protection (SenStadtUm 2016). It aims at addressing the integration

of environmental concerns into urban development at the city level. This is a basic

instrument to ensure the protection and consideration of soil, water, air, wild animals,

and plants, along with sufficient recreation areas for people in urban planning (von

Haaren 2004).

The local landscape plan with Biotope area factor

The local landscape plan represents the requirements and measures needed to adhere

to the recommendations of the landscape program at the local scale. The plan should

include concrete objectives and principles of nature conservation and landscape

management within a defined scope (SenStadtUm 2013; von Haaren 2004).

The Biotope Area Factor (BAF) is meant to improve the ecosystem functions in the

city center. The landscape plan is the instrument used to implement the BAF. It can

control which greening measures will be addressed, especially in densely populated

inner city areas. The BAF designates the area ratio of land to serve as space for

plants or other features of the natural environment (e.g., infiltration, evaporation)

(SenStadtUm 1990).

German Federal Building Code

In Germany, the law with the strongest impact on the local level is the German Federal

Building Code. The German Federal Building Code includes a list of possibilities

to implement adaptation measures and enforces climate-friendly development in

cities (§1 (5) and from §9 (1) No. 1 to No. 26 German Federal Building Code 2013).

Land-use planning in Berlin includes the development of a comprehensive land-use

plan (§5 (1) German Federal Building Code) on the city level and a local land-use

plan on the local level (§1 (5) German Federal Building Code). Both plans play an

important role in the implementation of climate adaptation measures.

Comprehensive land-use plan

The comprehensive land-use plan regulates city-wide urban development. The plan

was last revised in 2004 and has been continuously implemented from the lot level up

since then (von Haaren 2004). The plan “(. . . ) shall represent in basic form the type

of land-uses arising for the entire municipal territory in accordance with the intended

urban development which is proposed to correspond to the anticipated needs of the

120

5.2. Introduction

municipality.” §5 (1) German Federal Building Code (German law archive 2014). On

the basis of these, the local land-use plans are drawn up.

The Local land-use plans

The object of the local land-use plan is to assure the structural use of land according to

the German Federal Building Code (2013). A local land-use plan contains the legally

binding rules for the local level, to be developed in accordance with the comprehensive

land-use plan (von Haaren 2004). “Local land-use plans shall safeguard sustainable

urban development and a socially equitable use of land for the general good of the

community, and shall contribute to securing a more human environment and to

protecting and developing the basic conditions for natural life” §1 (5) German Federal

Building Code (German law archive 2014).

To visualize that the German Federal Building Code contains everything to incor-

porate climate adaptation into local land-use plans, we compiled in Table 5.1 those

numbers of the §9 German Federal Building Code where adaptation measures can,

from our point of view, be integrated.

Table 5.1 shows that adaptation to urban heat stress via local-land-use plans seems

possible. All local land-use plans are created by using a sample regulation designed

by the Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment (SenStadtUm

2012). This template contains a table of contents in which all the required topics

for the plan are listed. As such, it guides the creation of Berlin’s local land-use

plans. During their preparation, urban development contracts can be drafted which

represent a particular form of binding public service contract between public agencies

and investors. It is possible in this context to specify e.g., configuration of buildings

by demanding a particular roof or fa¸cade design.

In the German legal system, the public is given the opportunity to participate prior

to the adoption of certain plans and programs.

“The public is to be informed at the earliest possible stage about the general

aims and purposes of planning, about significantly different solutions which

are being considered for the redesign or development of an area, and of

the probable impact of the scheme; the public is to be given suitable

opportunity for comment and discussion (German Federal Building Code

§3 (1) 2013; German law archive 2014).”

The German Federal Building Code §3 (1) 2013 includes the right to participate for

both individuals and associations such as environmental organizations. As part of

the preparation of local land-use plans, citizens have the opportunity to participate

in two stages encompassing both the normal process as well as participation at an

early stage (German Federal Building Code 2013).

121

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

Table 5.1.:

Summary of paragraph 9 of the German Federal Building Code (BauGB)

to implement adaptation measures via local land-use plans. (German

Federal Building Code German law archive 2014; German Federal Building

Code 2013; Battis et al. 2010; Mitschang 2009).

Paragraph Number

Paragraph 9 (1) - The

content of the local

land-use plan

The local land-use plan may on urban-planning grounds make

designations regarding:

1. the type and degree of building and land-use

2. the coverage type, plot areas which may or may not be built

on and the location of physical structures

3. minimum dimensions for the size, width and depth of building

plots, and also maximum dimensions for residential plots in the

interests of economical and considerate exploitation of land

4. spaces for secondary structures which are required in

accordance with other regulations on the use of land, such as

play, leisure and recreational areas, and car-parking spaces,

garages and drive-ways;

. . .

10. spaces to be kept free from built development and their use

. . .

15. public and private green spaces, such as parks, allotment

gardens, sports grounds and playgrounds, camping sites and

bathing areas, cemeteries

. . .

20. measures for the protection, conservation and development of

topsoil, of the natural environment and of the landscape, where

these arrangements cannot be made in pursuance of other

regulations, and spaces for measures for the protection,

conservation and development of the natural environment and

the landscape

. . .

24. protected areas to be kept free from development with their

uses, spaces for specific installations and measures to provide

protection against harmful environmental impacts within the

meaning of the Federal Control of Pollution Act, and the

provisions to be made, including building and other technical

measures, to provide protection against such impacts or to

prevent or reduce such impact

25. in respect of individual spaces or of areas covered by a

binding land-use plan or parts thereof, and of parts of physical

structures, excluding spaces given over to agricultural use or for

woodland

a) planting of trees, shrubs and greenery of any other

kind

b) obligations relating to planting and to the

preservation of trees, shrubs and greenery of any

other kind and of water bodies

122

5.3. Methods and analytical framing

Public participation at an early stage and normal public participation

Public participation at an early stage and normal public participation are the

same but in contrast to normal participation, the participation at an early stage is

voluntary for the authority leading the proceedings in the expedited procedure of

an local land-use plan (§13a German Federal Building Code 2013). In the case of

normal public participation, it is obligatory. During the one-month public display

(§3 (2) German Federal Building Code 2013), citizens can comment on the draft

plans. The participation at an early stage usually has a much greater impact on

the creation of the plan because public participation enables an early consideration

of specific issues. The citizenry have the chance to comment on the provided

documents (environmental report and draft of the plan). For this purpose, the

citizens must inform themselves independently with the help of daily newspapers

or via the homepages of the respective districts. There is no central registry for

local land-use plans yet; neither on the block-level nor on the level of the Senate

Department) (Odparlik 2017). In politically important projects, sometimes the early

stage participation is combined with stakeholder and citizen workshops. These should

bring participants together to exchange arguments and ideas and to develop solutions.

With the help of the involved citizens, the preparation of the plan and identification

of potential problems is possible at an early planning stage. All comments received

from both participation processes have to be observed and answered by the authority

leading the proceedings. In doing so, the authority has the duty, to the best of its

knowledge and conscience, to observe or reject the objections. Therefore, attentive

actors are necessary. In difficult projects, citizens dispute those decisions and legal

processes must settle the matter.

5.3. Methods and analytical framing

5.3.1. Analytical framing

This project analyzed six of Berlin’s local land-use plans and their coverage of climate

issues, specifically measures to adapt to urban heat stress (Table 5.2).

Plans were considered for analysis according to the year in which the planning

process formally began and that in which the plan was ultimately adopted. They

were organized based on whether these dates fell before or after the formal adoption

of the Berlin City Climate Development Plan. The City Climate Development Plan

was approved in 2011 as the first climate adaptation plan for Berlin; any plan created

after that has to follow the policies laid out by this document. As we also wanted

to speak to experts involved in the development of each of the selected plans, the

sample was further limited to those plans completed after 2006 to ensure that these

professional contacts were available.

123

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

86 local land-use plans (61 prior to and 25 post the Berlin City Climate Development

Plan) were eligible after excluding those lacking the formal planning process documen-

tation required for a complete analysis. We then used the neighborhoods identified as

priority action areas in the bioclimatic map of the City Climate Development Plan.

This heat section is to further narrow down the number of plans under consideration

and to focus on areas with a clear need for adaptation work. Figure 5.1 shows our

analyzed local land-use plans in the areas of adverse climatic impacts (and for a

better comparability one plan (4a) which is not in any priority area) identified by

the citywide climate development plan and prioritized for action.

Figure 5.1.: Bioclimatic Strategy Map (SenStadtUm 2011)

Six local land-use plans from five different districts (Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf,

Lichtenberg, Mitte, Neuk¨

olln, and Tempelhof-Sch¨

oneberg) were selected (Table 5.2).

Two of the plans included environmental reports and four used the simplified proce-

dure (§13a German Federal Building Code 2013).

From February 2016 to March 2016, 14 central qualitative problem-centered inter-

views (cf. Meuser and Nagel 1991) were conducted with the help of questionnaires

(Appendix 6.12.1) with Berlin administrative officials, members of the planning and

architecture offices, and members of nature conservation organizations.

124

5.3. Methods and analytical framing

Table 5.2.: Selected plans for the analysis

Nr. District Before/After the

City Climate

Development Plan

Environmental

Reports

Expert

interview

1 Charlottenburg-

Wilmersdorf

After No 2,8,5

2 Lichtenberg Before No 6,8

3 Mitte After No 2, 9,11

4 Neuk¨

olln After No, also no

landscape plan

4a Neuk¨

olln After Yes (no landscape

plan)

5 Tempelhof-

Sch¨

oneberg

Before Yes 3, 5

The interviews and analysis of local land-use plans were used to identify those

specific elements of the local planning process which are the essential drivers for the

implementation of a climate adapted local land-use plan and which should receive

the most attention. To investigate this, and to assess how likely an implementation

of adaptation measures is, we used the Bayesian Networks methodology.

5.3.2. Bayesian Network

In order to choose the best course of action, decision-makers need ways to understand

which planning measures are truly effective. For our analyses we used the strategies

of Bromley (2005), Cain (2001), Pollino and Henderson (2010) and input the data

using the Netica software in version 5.15 of Norsys Software Corp. (Norsys 2015) to

calculate a Bayesian Network (BN).

The BN enables calculation of the likelihood of different outcomes and can thus be

used to inform important planning decisions (Barton et al. 2012). As Cain (2001,

54) states, “the real value of the BN lies in the way it helps you understand your

management problem in a more integrated way. It should be used as a ‘tool for

thinking’ not an automatic answer provider.”

The advantage of using a Bayesian network approach is that it is a static model

and therefore elements can be assigned in isolation if they represent a scenario at a

specific point in time - the probabilities that are assigned indicate the likelihood of

the scenario.

Bayesian Networks display actors, systems, and fundamental structures of a process

125

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

as individual elements. The shared conditions of these elements and mutual influences

on each other are shown as directed links. So called Parent Elements determine the

state of other elements. Potential final outcomes or situations are assigned to each

element. The likelihood of a certain target outcome taking place is a function of the

combination of the likelihood of each individual outcome connected to it (Otto 2006).

Quantitative data on climate change adaptation measures are not available. However,

qualitative data drawn from expert interviews and academic literature on adaptation

and planning document analysis can be used to replace quantitative data. By the

creation of a comprehensive BN, a first conceptual model can be established with the

experts throughout the interviews (Chen and Pollino 2012; Sprondel et al. 2016).

For our analysis, 10 of 14 interviews were conducted as a part of the study itself.

These ten were illustrated because their interviewees agreed to prepare the conceptual

model and to complete the quantitative questionnaire afterwards. We interviewed

experts from all relevant actor groups who were involved in the examined local

land-use planning processes; the Senate Department, district office, local land-use

planning office, architectural association, the open space planning office and Non-

Governmental Organisations (NGOs). The experts were chosen according to their

professional and disciplinary perspectives on the selected local land-use plans.

During the interviews, experts were asked which elements are most relevant for a

climate adapted local land-use plan. All relevant elements were listed and arranged

by discussing their possible states (Chen and Pollino 2012). This is a good starting

point and helps to map the causal chain of the general system and to structure the

BN later (Chen and Pollino 2012). The 10 conceptual models were amalgamated into

a comprehensive Bayesian Network which then incorporates feedback loops from all

experts. This creation process can contribute to finding the answer to the research

question (Sprondel et al. 2016; Uusitalo 2007).

To receive the probability values for the BN, the interview participants received

a questionnaire (Appendix 5.9.2) asking them to estimate likelihoods for different

conditions and outcomes in this network. It was difficult to deal with diverging

expert opinions. We weighed the calculations depending on the expertise and work

field of each expert (Cain 2001; Keith 1996). The resulting information (literature

and interviews) and likelihood (questionnaires) estimates could then be integrated

into the network (Uusitalo 2007). The BN is illustrated in Figure 5.2.

The BN method allows different scenarios to be tested (Bromley 2005). Potential

outcomes of each element can be adjusted individually to be more or less likely.

Ultimately, the effect of these changes on the target outcome indicates the relative

importance and level of impact of that element in the larger system (Pollino and

Henderson 2010) and, therefore, how the status quo can be altered. Multiple elements

should be altered in order to test the effect of combinations of changes, which is

a more accurate portrayal of real-world scenarios (Bromley 2005). As the number

126

5.4. Results and Discussion

of elements and influencing factors increase, it can become confusing for experts

to accurately estimate the potential for specific outcomes and the overall network

quality suffers (Cain 2001; Bromley 2005; Chen and Pollino 2012; Sprondel et al.

2016).

It is particularly important to ensure that the network is designed around the

research question in order to avoid irrelevant information (Cain 2001), the network

can always be changed but after this point a change of the network would lead to

a second interviewing round with the experts. Experts’ differences of opinion on

likelihoods or missing answers can also be problematic. Therefore, answers have to

be weighted. The interview process can help confirm that the elements and their

connections are organized logically. Fundamentally, the goal of creating the network

is to identify which actors and (planning) steps are needed in order to integrate

adaptation strategies into urban planning (Uusitalo 2007).

5.4. Results and Discussion

Figure 5.2 displays the Bayesian Network (BN), built on the results of the expert

interviews. The Bayesian Network elements depict the process of building a local

land-use plan. It was designed to categorize the processes through which local

land-use plans are orchestrated. The Bayesian Network is described and interpreted

with a text and visualized by elements. The BN is divided into three main facets of

the planning process: borough councilor/district planning, city-wide planning, and

citizen and agencies participation.

127

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

Figure 5.2.:

Bayesian Network displaying the likelihood of success of adaptation strategies to urban heat in a local land-use

plan in a status quo scenario

128

5.4. Results and Discussion

5.4.1. BN elements

Borough councilor/district administration

In the beginning, the borough councilor/district administration, sometimes in cooper-

ation with an investor, translate the idea for building a local land-use plan into public

policy. Even before the plan is created, the planning idea exists. Either the plan is

initiated by the district administration to shape the district via preventing planning

(e.g., to prevent too many playing halls and promote residential area) or an investor

wants to initiate a construction. In the case of an investor who is positively adjusted

to nature or wants to market a green image for their company, more adjustments

can be implemented in a later process than one who would like to maximize profits

from the project.

With the decision of the district administration, if the policy framework allows it, the

local land-use plan is made according to §13a German Federal Building Code 2013.

This means that the plan is developed using a simplified procedure. During that

procedure, the local land-use plan is not subject to an environmental report. That

can be applied when the plot is located in the inner-city and no estimated significant

impacts are expected. As environmental reports are time-consuming and rather

costly, investors prefer the simplified procedure [3]. The analyzed local land-use plans

show, and the experts confirm, that a simplified procedure is used whenever it is

possible [2-14]. This suggests that the §13a German Federal Building Code 2013

has led to an impairment of the environment. For this reason, some of the experts

recommend that changes should be made in the next amendment of the §13a German

Federal Building Code (2013) for principle enforcement of Environmental Assessment

(EA) [2, 3]. In cooperation with the district administration, the investor is a hidden

key element in the local land-use plans because they can influence the framework

of adaptation strategies for urban heat stress “behind the scenes”. A green leaning

investor can install greening measures despite that fact that these standards are only

recommended by the officials (e.g., plant species composition). Another element is

that the staff of the district can fix more adaptation measures into the plan with the

involvement of an investor. Because the investor is applying for building permits, the

district staff can insert more adaptation measures into the local land-use plan and

both parties benefit [2, 3]. This illustrates that even in the first step of the planning

process, the bar can be set for the potential to implement adaptation strategies.

On the city-wide level, the City Climate Development Plan, the comprehensive

land-use plan and the landscape plan play a role.

129

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

City Climate Development Plan

The City Climate Development Plan has played a pioneering role in Berlin. Its

challenge is to analyze climate change adaptation planning and determine how to

systematically integrate the City Climate Development Plan into administrative pro-

cesses (BBSR 2015). It should be a guiding policy instrument in the implementation

of urban heat stress measures and introduces possible measures as well as strategies

relating to spatial impacts. The plan should bring attention to relevant local actors,

available instruments, and spatially defined hot spots of risks (SenStadtUm 2011).

Through the creation of strategies to address heat threats, the plan is an informal

instrument that affects perceptions and preferences to provide addressees with an ori-

entation as to how to apply it (Dupuis and Knoepfel 2011). It is intended to address

relevant actors, and possible means, by the explicit assignment of responsibilities.

The experts generally agreed that the City Climate Development Plan plays a role

in the level of attention given to heat stress. Under the existing German Federal

Building Code (§1 Abs. 6 Nr.11 German Federal Building Code 2013), the City

Climate Development Plan should be taken into account in the evaluation phase.

During the interviews, the experts recommended that an area identified as a hot spot

- in City Climate Development Plan- should be subject to follow-up actions in the

planning process. These claims do not correspond with our findings from the local

land-use plan analysis. Our analysis showed, that despite hot spot classifications, no

particular attention was paid to heat stress. The City Climate Development Plan

was referenced, and indeed observed, but has not led to a change in the planning

process. To a certain extent, the current housing deficit in Berlin explains this.

Berlin’s continuing growth and the influx of refugees means even more housing will

be needed in the near future. All those interviewed agreed that considering this

and the resulting building boom, they could not put climate issues ahead of housing

construction needs [2-13]. Some experts affirmed that they do not know how to

translate the listed measures of the City Climate Development Plan into the work

they are doing in their field [5, 7]. To fix that gap, the Senate Department has

adopted a concrete City Climate Development Plan. It is an instruction manual,

published in summer 2016 (SenStadtUm 2016). The plan provides practical and

concrete recommendations for adaptation in Berlin. Further research is needed to

figure out the impact of this informal plan.

Comprehensive land-use plan

The comprehensive land-use plan regulates city-wide urban development. For the

implementation of urban heat stress measures, the plan can set district guidelines

for the subordinated local land-use plans. By including urban heat stress scenarios

into the plan, a long term planning function for the whole city would be fulfilled

(Greiving 2009 - 2010; Othengrafen 2014). Adaptation measures such as air corridors,

provided by the precise positioning of green and open spaces, can only be planned

130

5.4. Results and Discussion

on a city wide level. This makes it clear that, if climate adaptation is to be given

greater significance in development plans, it must be given increased attention in the

preparatory planning stages. Only then will this issue likely be carried over into local

land-use plans. Both the comprehensive land-use plan and local land-use plan play

important roles, and are incorporated at different stages, in the planning process of

the local land-use plan. Experts identified this outdated plan as an obstacle to the

implementation of climate change adaptation. It is important to note however, that an

update to the comprehensive land-use plan would only have an effect on adaptation in

areas where a sufficient scale can be met. It would pertain to, for example, greenways

as a distinct land-use representation. The ongoing practice in Berlin, the so-called

parallel process, is an argument against revision of the comprehensive land-use plan.

There is no full amendment of the plan currently underway to incorporate strategic

climate adaptation planning and environmental analysis (cf. K¨

oppel et al. 2016) and,

according to the experts, it is also not planned for the near future [6, 9, 13]. The

interviewees were of the opinion that an amendment to the whole plan would lead to

a significant improvement of the city’s ability to integrate climate change adaptation

strategies.

Landscape program

In Germany, the landscape program is a strategic statewide planning instrument to

achieve integrative environmental protection. Adaptation strategies against urban

heat stress can only be implemented when a strategy for the whole city exists. During

the interviews, the experts mentioned that for an adaptive local land-use plan, the

landscape program does not play a significant role. It was amended comprehensively

for the last time in 1994 (SenStadtUm 1994). At this point in time, climate change was

not a prominent topic in the Senate Department and so policy objectives addressing

urban heat in mandatory city-wide planning instruments (comprehensive land-use

plan and landscape program) are missing. Since 2016, a revision of the landscape

program has become available (SenStadtUm 2016). For our study this could not be

considered as the examined plans have been created with the landscape program in

1994.

On the district level the area development plan and the local landscape plan can set

standards.

Area development planning

Area development planning is a planning instrument implemented at the local level.

The area development plan is particularly focused on a medium to long-term planning

horizon. It sets surface requirements for social infrastructure facilities, green and open

spaces, centers, commercial establishments, public space and transport infrastructure,

131

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

as well as for housing. For the experts, area development planning does not play

a role for adaptation strategies because the plans are generally not up to date and

have other priorities. A focus on adaptation is still missing [2, 3, 11].

Local landscape plan

The task of the local landscape plan (concretizing the aforementioned city-wide

landscape program) is to observe principles of nature conservation and landscape

management. Because they are optional for each district, they are used sporadically

in some districts and not at all in others. Three of the analyzed local land-use

plans include local landscape plans with a Biotope Area Factor (BAF). The experts

recognized that the need is not necessarily to provide for new local landscape plans.

However, if a new building is planned and the district has adopted local landscape

plans, it is an effective instrument. The fact of the matter is that the plan only

applies to new construction. For adaptation measures to be effective, they must

encompass the existing building stock.

The information of the district planning and city-wide planning instruments must

be taken into account during the preparation of the local land-use plan draft. Sum-

marizing both levels, the BN calculation shows that the planning specifications for

planning areas consider climate change adaptation at a rate of about 66.2%.

Participation at an early stage

On the right side of the Figure 5.2 the results of the participation at an early stage

have been included. During this process, the objections of the citizens, NGOs, along

with those of the officials themselves, are incorporated into the draft of the plans.

How many citizens participate depends on several factors; principally the initial

situation, the location, and the level of public interest (Odparlik 2017). There are

plans with an enormous amount of participation (thousands of comments) and those

without a single letter from citizens or NGOs [3]. From the six analyzed plans,

we could not determine if inadequate dissemination of information was the reason

for a lack of participation. The experts noted that no statement by officials on

climate change adaptation was presented. Only a couple of public opinion statements

were related to adaptation or ‘greening’ the city. The contents of these statements

were classified as not relevant to the planning process [2, 3, 4]. Although public

opinions and input are available, they do not necessarily need to be heeded by those

responsible for the plan. On the one hand, experts agree that in contrast to those of

the agencies, the comments of the citizens are often not relevant for the planning.

On the other hand, participation at an early stage helps to access and respond to a

specific local knowledge of the citizens and fosters greater public acceptance. That is

why early participation is conducted in almost all cases even if no legal obligation

132

5.4. Results and Discussion

exists [2, 3, 4].

Weighting process

When the final evaluation is performed, the important contributions made by public

participation, participation of the agencies as well as environmental report are

crucial. The analyzed planning specifications for area planning and the results of

participation at an early stage are incorporate into the local land-use plan draft.

The environmental report is analyzed during the weighing process and constitutes

the element with the single greatest impact on the goal outcome. Holding other

elements constant, the presence of an environmental report increases the chances

of the creation of a climate adapted local land-use plan from 77.0% to 88.3% (see

Table 5.3). Therefore, environmental reports are important components for the

inclusion of adaptation strategies. Stakeholder participation and existing planning

guidelines have similar, though smaller effects. In cases where the simplified procedure

is applied, the probability that a local land-use plan is climate-adapted falls between

31% and 34% (plan number 1, 2, 3 and 4). The plans with environmental reports

have much improved chances (getting climate adaptation involved) of 80-82% (4a

and 5) (Figure 5.3).

Shown below are the likelihoods of successful climate-adapted plan adoption calculated

for each of the six scenarios, drawn from the six Berlin local land-use plans chosen

for analysis (Figure 5.3).

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Minimum 41,2,4Status Quo

4a5

Environmental Impact

Statement

Maximum

Figure 5.3.:

Likelihood for climate-adapted local land-use plan creation combined

with the sensitivity analysis to identify the key determinants. Every

element will be analyzed by testing it against a totally positive or negative

influence - minimum/maximum (see Table 5.3).

The reason for this significant increase in probability (80-82%) could also be related

to the fact that according to the methodology of the BN “interventions that are closer

to the objectives will have a greater impact” (Cain 2001, 55). In their interviews,

however, experts emphasized the importance of environmental report in bringing

attention to conservation concerns in planning. All experts recommended that no

new tools are needed to improve the integration of climate adaptation strategy. All

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5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

of them felt that the existing tools are adequate for the incorporation of adaptation

measures. For the sensitivity analysis to identify the key determinants, every element

(parentless nodes) will be analyzed by testing it against a totally positive or negative

influence - 100%, holding all others constant see Table 5.3.

Sensitivity analysis

Table 5.3.:

Analysis of the impact of each element on the target variable compared

to the status quo scenario

Element, with positive state at 100% [status quo: 77.0%]

Borough councilor/ district administration 77.7

Type of local land-use plan 77.3

Statements of citizens and NGOs (early) 78.0

Statements of agencies (early) 78.0

Statements of citizens (participation) 80.6

Statements of agencies (participation) 80.6

City Climate Development Plan 77.2

Comprehensive land-use plan 77.3

Landscape program 77.3

Area development plan 77.2

Local landscape plan 77.3

Environmental reports 88.3

Element, with negative state on 100% [status quo: 77.0%]

Borough councilor/ district administration 76.6

Type of local land-use plan (state: not) 77.0

Statements of citizens and NGOs (early) 76.5

Statements of agencies (early) 76.0

Statements of citizens (participation) 75.0

Statements of agencies (participation) 72.4

City Climate Development Plan 76.6

Comprehensive land-use plan 76.8

Landscape program 76.8

Area development plan 77.0

Local landscape plan 76.3

Environmental reports 56.2

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5.4. Results and Discussion

5.4.2. BN analysis

The Bayesian Network methods used here enables the visualization of the planning

process alongside an investigation of individual elements and their significance in

the larger system. This is important to help planners understand which capital

investments will make the best use of often scarce resources. There are still some

drawbacks to this method, though, which are important to mention. Complex

networks require a lot of data. While the use of quantitative data is often seen as

an advantage of the method and expert knowledge can be incorporated to calculate

values and ensure the accurate portrayal of certain views, this can lead to problems.

When little relevant knowledge or few data are available, experts’ estimates alone

can result in some uncertainty (Otto 2006; Welp et al. 2005).

Another identified issue is the inability to change or update the network after the

initial design phase has been completed. Additional elements that may be discovered,

or found to be irrelevant, cannot be added or removed without starting a new round

of expert interviews. This created a problem for our analysis, as the environmental

reports was found to already be part of the local land-use plans at the beginning

of the process (§2a German Federal Building Code 2013). Thus, the environmental

report should have been combined with the local land-use plan draft element. But,

the same section of the Building Code (§2 Abs. (4) German Federal Building Code

2013) also states that the results of the environmental analysis should be considered

in the final evaluation. Therefore, we felt that the position of this element was

justified; none of the experts consulted objected to this design.

The development of the network from interviews was often challenging due to the

tendency of experts to draw linear diagrams and their difficulty in conceptualizing

the complex relationships between multiple elements.

Experts’ answers also varied based on their field of work and area of specific knowledge

(Morgan and Henrion 1990; Chen and Pollino 2012). The calculations showed that,

under the status quo in 77.0% of cases, adaptation strategies will be included in a

local land-use plan. Changes to certain conditions will cause this value to rise or

sink. The high overall probability (77.0%) of adoption of a climate-adapted local

land-use plan in Berlin, under the status quo, tends to support a positive outlook

for success in these planning efforts. The six scenarios analyzed above (Figure 5.3),

however, also demonstrate that this probability value can fluctuate depending on

specific situations and conditions.

Table 5.3 depicts the points with the strongest impacts on this system. The experts

agree that local planning should not be overloaded with requirements. Successful

incorporation of climate issues can only be guaranteed if related goals are defined at

higher planning levels [3, 6]. It is also important to know how the most significant

elements, such as the environmental report, work in this system; although the presence

of one element is not sufficient to ensure the integration of adaptation strategies in

135

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

local land-use plans.

The experts we consulted also pointed out that the so-called climate protection

amendment of the German Federal Building Code (§1 (5) und §1a (5) German

Federal Building Code 2013) from 2011, has led to almost no changes in terms of

their daily work on climate issues. The German Federal Building Code already

includes many suggestions (see Table 5.1) for the incorporation of climate change

adaptation measures into local land-use plans. Green spaces, for example, are used to

offset other impacts and have additional climate benefits [5]. Both before and after

the amendment, section nine of the code allowed for the effects of urban heat stress to

be combatted. Therefore, the legal authorization for the implementation of climate

adaptation strategies has already been provided by the German Federal Building

Code (BauGB 2013). The reluctance of planners to act on this stems from their

uncertainty about the impacts of climate change and concerns about over-loading

the planning process when there is no clear or immediate need [11].

The sample regulation guides the creation of Berlin’s local land-use plans. It would

be ideal, according to the experts we interviewed, if this sample regulation made

stronger reference to greenspaces and promoted best practice for climate adaptation

planning [5]. Most of those interviewed said they felt changes to the sample regulation

are necessary and that they would like to see action taken on that matter (probability

of 80-100%). Even so, some feel that despite the clarification provided by the sample

regulation regarding possible implementation opportunities, a better understanding

of the role of planning in climate change adaptation is required. During the process of

drafting a local land-use plan, the planner may not have a grasp of the full spectrum

of urban issues and a sample regulation is therefore a necessary tool. Those who are

responsible for the content of the sample regulation place the likelihood of a revision

of the text at around 10% and estimate the ultimate effect of the changes to be minor

(2 on a scale of 1 to 10). This demonstrates the differing perspectives on the topic.

In Berlin, changes to the comprehensive land-use plan have been made using the

‘parallel process’ referenced above for quite some time. Currently, the bidding process

and master plan creation for an urban development can be completed without any

assessment of the environmental situation. This brings up the question: does an

environmental report at the local level happen too late, not only for climate change

adaptation, but also for other ecological concerns [11]?

Experts complain that local land-use plans are overloaded with environmental con-

cerns such as biodiversity requirements, land consumption, emission control, etc.,

and the urban climate is therefore difficult to prioritize [3, 4, 5]. In contrast to noise,

guidelines and orientation thresholds for the topic of urban heat are missing [5, 6].

According to the expert interviews, the results of the BN show that the integration

and implementation of adaptation measures rely primarily on five requirements:

the preliminary plan draft or idea for the area to be (re)developed, whether the

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5.5. Conclusion

project has an investor, whether the district-level plan considers climate concerns, and

whether an environmental statement is included. The experts agreed that integration

also depends on the people who are responsible for the creation of the plan.

5.5. Conclusion

Ongoing discourse on the topic of adaptation is vital. Formal local-level planning

is derivative of broader general planning, and deals primarily with those themes

and topics that were previously part of higher-level planning processes. For this

reason, it was important to model and analyze the planning assumptions, formal

and informal, that are part of localized land-use planning. Although BNs can be

complex, they are a convenient method for detailed investigation of how a planning

or management goal can be reached. They help visualize causal links and identify

deciding factors for discussion. Most importantly, the analytical portion of the BN

method brings important decision points to the forefront, making the implementation

of the process more transparent and demonstrating how these central factors affect

the likelihood of reaching the goal outcome (Cain 2001). The huge effort required for

research into the effects of climate change stays in striking contrast to the number

implemented strategies, which is relatively small. Although these strategies could

lead to a well-organized approach to climate change impacts through various planning

and analysis tools, this effort will most likely be avoided. In general, climate change

remains a socially and politically challenging issue, which, due to many factors, is only

slowly being incorporated into the planning process. Our interviews also showed that

the integration of new topics, like climate adaptation, is often difficult. It requires

integrated approaches to coordinate between many different actors and activities in

order to tackle the complexity of adaptation measures to address urban heat stress.

Practitioners complain about the changes in thinking and policy that these issues

entail. Ultimately, the colleagues need training courses on how to approach the

subject and what can be done [11]. Local land-use plans alone cannot shoulder all

the responsibility for implementation of climate adaptation strategies. Success in

this area can only be guaranteed if these strategies are embedded at a higher level.

In Berlin, this requires clear instruction and guidelines from the Senate Department

under political pressure of the Land Governance. The problem is that the Senate

Department sees its role as more conceptual and shifts the task of implementation

onto the individual districts in the city. These districts, however, do not have the

financial or human capital needed to complete this work. They are not set up well for

implementation and do not know how best to go about it. The districts would prefer

that this process and the necessary knowledge were compiled by Senate Department

so that it could be better used for specific planning needs [2, 11, 13]. All actors need

a translation of climate change adaptation strategies into their daily work. They

need to know how the formal and informal planning and governance instruments at

different levels can be linked. This requires advanced training and/or the development

137

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

of knowledge platforms (Tethys 2017) and constant communication between all urban

government levels.

5.6. Acknowledgements

The authors thank all experts for their willingness to share their knowledge in the

expert interviews.

138

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5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

5.8. Interviews

[1] District office Steglitz-Zehlendorf, 16.07.2015.

[2] District office Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, 11.02.2016

[3] District office Tempelhof-Sch¨

oneberg, 16.02.2016

[4] District office Neuk¨

olln, 18.02.2016

[5] Planning office 1, 19.02.2016

[6] District office Lichtenberg, 22.02.2016

[7] Architectural association, 25.02.2016

[8] Planning office 2, 25.02.2016

[9]

District office Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf LaPla (Landschaftsplanung), 25.02.2016

[10] Senate Department legal examination, 26.02.2016

[11] District office Mitte, 29.02.2016

[12] Nature conservation organisation 1, 16.03.2016

[13] District Council, 06.04.2016

[14] Nature conservation organisation 2, 05.04.2016

146

5.9. Appendix

5.9.1. Probability of success for climate change adaptation in local

land-use planning in Berlin

Date: Name: Institution and Expertise:

How much importance to you attach to the topic of climate change adaptation

compared to other topics of urban planning/environmental issues (in your district)?

Is heat stress a current or a future threat?

Which heat stress reducing measures can you implement with your work?

What is the right planning level/the right instrument for climate change adaptation?

How can the implementation of adaptation measures be facilitated? Which instru-

ments need to be activated?

What are the greatest barriers in the implementation of climate policies on the local

land-use planning level?

Were there driving or inhibiting forces for climate change adaptation?

Has there ever been a successful implementation of planned measures?

How do you assess the importance of ...

•Informal planning in Berlin? Especially the City Climate Development Plan?

•Public and administration participation in local land-use planning?

•The environmental report in local land-use planning?

• §13a of the German Federal Building Code?

•Is the planning procedure according to §13a a trend nowadays?

•A local landscape plan?

•

Preparative framework planning? How strong is the influence of a district

development plan?

•

Amendment of the German Federal Building Code in 2011 (concerning climate)?

147

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

5.9.2. Quantitative Questionnaire

We use Bayesian Networks to identify the relevant elements influencing the probability

of climate change adaptation measures in a local land-use plan.

The Bayesian Network was created on the basis of the interviews with you and other

experts. It shows all required elements for local land-use planning and their states.

This questionnaire is designed to investigate the probabilities of the states. In the end

we can calculate the probability of success for climate change adaptation measures

in local land-use planning.

Please consider that the network is a model and some circumstances are simplified

and narrowed to include only the elements playing a (potential) role for climate

adaptation in the planning process.

The questions refer to your overall knowledge and experiences with local land-use

planning in Berlin since approx. 2006. The questions arise from the method of

the Bayesian Networks and may appear constructed. If this is the case, a brief

examination of the network will help.

The probability values should be indicated as percentages.

How likely is it that the borough councilor emphasizes the topic of climate

change adaptation?

Answer: %

Estimation/Experience: How many of the local land-use plans (you are cur-

rently working on) are according to §12 of the German Federal Building Code

(= related to a specific project with investor)?

Answer: %

Estimation/Experience: How many of the local land-use plans (you are currently

working on) are according to §13a of the German Federal Building Code?

Answer: %

148

5.9. Appendix

At the beginning of the planning process a planning draft/idea for the planning

area is needed: how likely is it that this planning draft/idea already considers

climate change adaptation?

Rate the following 4 scenarios.

Borough councilor Kind of local land-use

plan

Planning draft/

idea: climate

adapted

1 Emphasizes topic §12 %

2 Emphasizes topic Not §12 %

3 Does not §12 %

4 Does not Not §12 %

How likely is it that you can derive climate adaptation contents from the

comprehensive land-use plan for the planning area?

Answer: %

Consider the case that the City Climate Development Plan shows a “Hot Spot”

for the planning area. How likely is it that this information will be included

into the content of the local land-use planning?

Answer: %

From city-wide planning documents like the comprehensive land-use plan, land-

scape program and the City Climate Development Plan, planning specifications

can be derived. How likely is it that the city-wide planning sets specifications

about climate change adaptation? Rate the 8 scenarios.

Comprehensive

land-use plan

Landscape

programme

City Climate

Development

Plan

City-wide

planning: sets

specification

1 Sets specification Sets specification Sets specification %

2 Sets specification Sets specification No specification %

3 Sets specification No specification Sets specification %

4 Sets specification No specification No specification %

5 No specification Sets specification Sets specification %

6 No specification Sets specification No specification %

7 No specification No specification Sets specification %

8 No specification No specification No specification %

149

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

How likely is it that the local landscape plan (if applicable) sets targets relevant

for climate change adaptation in the planning area? (Like e.g., the biotope

area factor)?

Answer: %

How likely is it that a district development plan (if applicable) sets targets

relevant for climate change adaptation in the planning area?

Answer: %

10)

How likely is it that the borough planning documents set specifications for

climate change adaptation?

Rate the 4 scenarios.

Local landscape plan

District development

plan

Borough planning:

climate adaptation

considered

1 Sets specification Sets specification %

2 Sets specification No specification %

3 No specification Sets specification %

4 No specification No specification %

11)

Planning specifications are derived from the city-wide and the borough-specific

planning documents. How likely is it that those specifications set targets for

climate adaptation in the planning area? Rate the 4 scenarios.

Borough planning/

district

administration

City-wide planning Planning

specifications for

planning area:

climate adaptation

considered

1 Sets specification Sets specification %

2 Sets specification No specification %

3 No specification Sets specification %

4 No specification No specification %

12)

How likely is it that the public or NGOs note public interests concerning climate

adaptation in the participation at an early stage (relevant to the weighing

process)?

Answer: %

150

5.9. Appendix

13)

How likely is it that other administrations note an interest concerning climate

adaptation in the participation at an early stage (relevant to the weighing

process)?

Answer: %

14)

Local land-use plan draft: How likely is it that this draft is adapted to climate

change?

Rate the 8 scenarios.

Planning

specifications for

planning area

Planning

draft/idea

statements from

the participation

at early stage

Local land-use

plan draft:

climate adapted

1 Climate

adaptation

considered

Climate

adapted

Relevant to

weighting process

2 Climate

adaptation

considered

Climate

adapted

Not relevant %

3 Climate

adaptation

considered

Not Relevant to

weighting process

4 Climate

adaptation

considered

Not Not relevant %

5 not Climate

adapted

Relevant to

weighting process

6 not Climate

adapted

Not relevant %

7 not Not Relevant to

weighting process

8 not Not Not relevant %

15)

How likely is it that the environmental report proposes measures for climate

change adaptation?

Answer: %

16)

How likely is it that the public or NGOs note a public interest concerning

climate adaptation in the participation process (relevant to the weighing pro-

cess)?

Answer: %

151

5. Climate change adaptation to heat risk at the local level

17)

How likely is it that other administrations note interests concerning climate

adaptation in the participation process (relevant to the weighing process)?

Answer: %

18)

Weighing process: How likely is it that the local land-use plan now includes

climate change adaptation measures?

Rate the 8 scenarios.

Environmental

report

Local land-use

plan draft

statements from

the participation

Weighting

process:

climate

adapted

plan

1 Includes measures Climate adapted Relevant to

weighting process

2 Includes measures Climate adapted Not relevant %

3 Includes measures Not Relevant to

weighting process

4 Includes measures Not Not relevant %

5 Does not include

measures

Climate adapted Relevant to

weighting process

6 Does not include

measures

Climate adapted Not relevant %

7 Does not include

measures

Not Relevant to

weighting process

8 Does not include

measures

Not Not relevant %

19)

How likely is it that §9 of the German Federal Building Code is fully exploited

for climate adaptation measures?

Answer: %

Are amendments of laws and other regulations needed?

20)

Is an amendment of the German Federal Building Code necessary concerning

an easier integration of adaptation measures into local land-use planning?

Answer: %

21)

How important would an amendment of the comprehensive land-use plan be

(concerning climate adaptation)?

Answer: %

152

5.9. Appendix

22)

How likely is it that the landscape programme contains climate change adapta-

tion measures for the specific planning area? Answer: %

23)

How likely is an amendment of the sample regulation concerning the integration

of adaptation measures in the catalogue of the most common designations?

Answer: %

24)

How strong would the impact be (scale 1-10) of such an amendment of the sam-

ple regulation concerning climate adaptation designations of the local land-use

plan?

Answer: %

153

154

6. Urban climate and heat stress: How

likely is the implementation of

adaptation measures in mid-latitude

cities?

The case of fa¸cade greening analyzed

with Bayesian networks.

Published title:

Urban climate and heat stress: How likely is the

implementation of adaptation measures in mid-

latitude cities?

The case of fa¸cade greening analyzed with Bayesian

networks.

Version used in thesis: post print

Authors: Sprondel, N., Donner, J., Mahlkow, N. K¨

oppel, J.

Journal: One Ecosystem

Vol. 1, November 2016

Year of publication: 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.1.e9280

155

6. Urban climate and heat stress

6.1. Background

Urban heat is a challenge for mid-latitude cities possibly aggravated by global climate

change making it necessary to adapt the urban fabric. Fa¸cade greening has been

identified as an important measure to adjust the building stock and new buildings to

adverse climatic impacts. Yet, little is known on factors that influence implementation

probabilities for adaptation measures. Therefore, we tried to figure out the driving

forces and barriers for implementation of fa¸cade greening applying the methodology

of Bayesian Networks (BNs). The article presents the Bayesian Network (BN) as an

analytical system to examine the probability for the implementation of adaptation

measures by including expert opinions.

6.2. New information

The results show that experts in Berlin estimate the likelihood of an implementation

of fa¸cade greening under current conditions at 2%. The article also examines further

supportive factors that exist to raise this comparatively low value. A scenario

including financial incentives from a backyard greening program raises the chances

to 14%. However, BN results confirm that it depends on the factor of “willingness”

of involved actors and the right combination of supportive factors, as there are no

regulations to fix the implementation of a fa¸cade greening legally.

Keywords

Bayesian networks, fa¸cade greening, implementation, ecosystem services, climate

change adaptation, Berlin

6.3. Introduction

Impacts of global climate change, among them rising temperatures and higher

frequencies of extreme events such as heat waves, are already noticeable (IPCC 2014).

Adaptation is necessary and important - especially for cities (Satterthwaite 2006;

McCarthy et al. 2010). Due to their distinctive features - the geometry of street

canyons, the amount of heat absorbing materials, the additional anthropogenic heat,

and a lower vegetation ratio - the temperatures in cities are higher than those in the

surrounding countryside (Oke 1988; Kleerekoper et al. 2012). Global climate change

potentially aggravates the so-called urban heat island effect (Lemonsu et al. 2015).

156

6.3. Introduction

In the past years, most German cities have developed climate change adaptation

strategies which particularly focus on measures of urban planning to tackle the

impacts of urban heat (Donner et al. 2015). Overall, these adaptation strategies

display a strong trend towards so-called “nature-based solutions” (Kabisch et al.

2016), “ecosystem-based adaptation”(e.g., Wamsler and Pauleit 2016) or “green

infrastructure” (EC 2016). These concepts center around a similar goal, namely to

use “biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy

to help people and communities adapt to the negative effects of climate change at

local, national, regional and global levels” (UNEP 2016). Main reasons for increasing

attention of decision-makers for “nature-based solutions” are their supposedly lower

costs and higher durability than technology-based solutions to climate challenges

(Naumann et al., 2014). The German cities’ strategies recommend a variety of

greening measures such as planting street trees or greening tramway tracks as well

as the installation of fa¸cade greening to mitigate urban heat islands (Kappis et al.

2014; SenStadtUm 2011).

Fa¸cade greening is mentioned in 15 of the 24 German adaptation strategies as a

measure to improve microclimatic conditions (Donner et al. 2015) and bears some

interesting characteristics as an example for “nature-based solutions” to climatic

challenges in cities. Fa¸cade greening renders various Ecosystem Services (ESS) (TEEB

2011) such as human health improvements (Tzoulas et al. 2007), new habitats for

animals and plants (Bartfelder and K¨

ohler 1987; Lundholm and Richardson 2010;

Solecki and Rosenzweig 2004), noise reduction (Renterghem and Botteldooren 2009),

microclimate regulation (Haase et al. 2014), filtering of particulate matter, and

absorption of air pollutants (Escobedo et al. 2011; McPherson et al. 1997; Morani et

al. 2011; Kuttler 2011).

In the urban context green fa¸cades are especially attractive as they are not used

for other purposes, unlike most of the horizontal green and open spaces in cities.

Fa¸cade greening needs very little space on the ground, thus, user pressure and user

competition is unlikely to occur (Debus 2009). In Germany, no permission under

planning law is needed to green fa¸cades if it does not involve public streets or listed

buildings (FLL 2000). Therefore, it is a measure considered to be relatively easy to

implement also by private actors. It would be possible to fix fa¸cade greening via local

land-use plans, landscape plans with Biotope Area Factor (BAF), impact mitigation

regulation, or design regulations (FLL 2000). As these ways of implementation are

not commonly applied in planning practice, it is not part of this study to examine

how to implement fa¸cade greening with these instruments. To realize this adaptation

measure of fa¸cade greening, municipalities need to rely heavily on the initiative of

homeowners and tenants (Akbari and Konopacki 2005; Mahammadzadeh et al. 2009)

- which is the focal point of this study.

The effectivity of fa¸cade greening with regards to mitigating urban heat has been

examined by a range of case studies: It can decrease the (cooling) energy demand of a

building as it weakens wind speed (Kikegawa et al. 2006; Mazzali et al. 2013; Perini et

157

6. Urban climate and heat stress

al. 2011); and the shading effect from leaves contributes to cooling fa¸cades (Cameron

et al. 2014; Hoelscher et al. 2016; Hunter et al. 2014). This needs to be distinguished

from another less pronounced effect of fa¸cade greening, evapotranspiration, which

leads to lower temperatures between building walls and plants and raises relative

humidity (Hoelscher et al. 2016; Hunter et al. 2014; P´erez et al. 2011). Kleerekoper

et al. (2012) regard fa¸cade greening as one of many ways to establish vegetation in

cities and ascribe a cooling effect to vegetation in general.

Some studies take a more skeptical stance to the cooling potential of green fa¸cades.

They discovered only minor temperature change at buildings (Cameron et al. 2014;

J¨

anicke et al. 2015). Bowler et al. (2010) also point out that all previous proof of

the cooling effect of fa¸cade greening have been generated by single case studies and

it has not been confirmed that it is solely down to the greening measure. However,

skeptics do not question ecosystem services provided by green fa¸cades in general and

many studies also proved that effectiveness of fa¸cade greening for climatic services

can be raised under certain conditions. The cooling effect is dependent on the choice

of the plants/ plant traits, e.g., number of leaf layers, the availability of water, and

location/ meteorological conditions (Cameron et al. 2014; Sheweka and Mohamed

2012).

Research has shown that an implementation of climate change adaptation measures

rarely occurs (e.g., Wamsler et al. 2013; Carmin et al. 2012). Barriers and incentives

to the governance of implementing adaptation measures have mainly been identified

in a qualitative way (e.g., Biesbroek et al. 2013). Actor-specific characteristics, the

institutional environment, i.e., formal and informal rules that guide interaction, and

the natural and socio-economic environment have been shown to be crucial variables

to explain why barrier and opportunities to implementing adaptation measures arise

(Lehmann et al. 2015; Mahlkow and Donner 2016). However, an analysis is missing

that combines qualitative and quantitative elements to study the interplay of factors

that decide whether the implementation fails or succeeds.

Besides the number of studies confirming the ESS of fa¸cade greening, to date there

has not been any research on the implementation of this particular climate change

adaptation measure. This study intends to figure out probabilities for implementa-

tion success of fa¸cade greening by applying the method of Bayesian Network (BN).

Initially, BNs were used to support medical diagnoses (Wang et al. 2002), for a long

time the application of BN for environmental research questions has been limited

(Bromley 2005). However, recently the application of BN has expanded and been

tested for further research problems, especially with relation to water resources man-

agement (Bromley 2005; Henriksen and Barlebo 2008), environmental management

linking nature, society, and economy (Uusitalo 2007), and in environmental modeling

(Aguilera et al. 2011). For questions concerning the implementation probability of

climate change adaptation measures, no example is known to the authors.

158

6.4. Study site

Therefore this study pursues the following questions:

•

What are the influencing factors for the implementation of the adaptation

measure of fa¸cade greening in the city of Berlin?

•

How likely is the implementation, the so called success probability, for the

variable of fa¸cade greening?

6.4. Study site

The study was conducted in Berlin, the capital of Germany. It is the biggest

(

89,000 ha

) as well as the most populated city in Germany with 3.5 million inhabitants

(Statistical Office 2015). Berlin is situated in the temperate climate zone, transitioning

from maritime to continental climate, with warm, mild summers and cold winters

(Peel et al. 2007). Climate change projections imply a rise in temperatures of

2.5◦C

degrees by 2050 with more hot days and tropical nights (Lotze-Campen et al. 2009).

32% of the city area is covered by public green spaces and forests, while 57% of the

city area of Berlin is used for settlement and transport purposes (SenStadtUm 2014).

A recent study showed that the Urban Heat Island leads to a temperature difference

of an average of four to five Kelvin (

) during summer nights in Berlin compared to

the surrounding rural areas (Fenner et al. 2014).

Berlin’s climate change adaptation plan identifies neighborhoods with current and

future priority needs for action against urban heat especially in the city centre.

Fa¸cade greening is recommended as a suitable adaptation measure (SenStadtUm

2011). The city aims at “greening fa¸cades wherever possible” (SenStadtUm 2011: 5).

Nehls et al. (2010) have identified a

600 ha

area as potentially available for fa¸cade

greening in Berlin. Those figures illustrate that theoretically an implementation of

green fa¸cades could be feasible in the city of Berlin.

6.5. Methods

6.5.1. Bayesian networks

The study followed the guidelines of Bromley (2005), Cain (2001), Pollino and

Henderson (2010) and used the software Netica in the version 5.15 of Norsys Software

Corp. (Norsys 2015) for Bayesian Network modelling.

Bayesian Networks are analytical manifestations of real systems: Actors, planned

interventions, and unchangeable parameters are displayed as Elements in a graphic

model. Conditions of certain elements affect the state of other elements, which is

shown by directed links between the elements. Elements that determine the state of

159

6. Urban climate and heat stress

other elements are so called Parent Elements.

For single elements any number of states can be formulated and the probabilities for

these states are calculated to finally gain the conditional probability of the target

variable; in the present case this is shown for implementing fa¸cade greening. The

final outcome is the conditional probability of the target variable, which reflects

the potential to achieve the desired target state under current circumstances. This

particular state is commonly referred to as the status quo.

The first step in the creation of a comprehensive BN is the development of a conceptual

model of the investigated system in cooperation with experts (see Chen and Pollino

2012). Four qualitative expert interviews have been conducted to build a conceptual

model for the case of implementing fa¸cade greening. Two researchers in the field

of fa¸cade greening and two climate protection commissioners from different Berlin

borough administrations were interviewed due to their knowledge on fa¸cade greening

and their familiarity with the administration in Berlin. Uusitalo (2007) states that

the quality of a BN is not negatively affected if only few experts are interviewed

and only limited data is available. Interviewed experts provided information on

the necessary elements for the conceptual BN model from their professional and

disciplinary perspectives.

All mentioned elements were listed and arranged, a discussion of possible states of

all elements followed. The intention was to display the current as well as the desired

state of the elements (Chen and Pollino 2012). Elements potentially affecting the

target state were integrated even if they are not yet relevant. The model creation

process focused on identifying the actors and planning steps that are necessary to

implement fa¸cade greening. The model was discussed with each expert and those

expert discussions were thoroughly focused on the research object. The process of

model creation and recognizing the defining structures can already contribute to

answering the research question (Uusitalo 2007).

The single conceptual models created by the four different experts were combined to

form a conclusive and comprehensive Bayesian Network (Figure 6.1; 6.2). Research

suggests that the network should at best be kept simple, as it can be a cognitive

challenge for the experts to imagine combined probabilities using different factors

(Uusitalo 2007). The assessment of probabilities can become confusing with a rising

number of elements and influencing factors, potentially deteriorating the quality of

answers (Cain 2001; Bromley 2005; Chen and Pollino 2012).

In a second step, a questionnaire (Appendix 6.12) has been developed and sent to

the four experts to gain the probability values for the network. Different feasible

scenarios for all single elements are determined by the network structure (Figure 6.1;

6.2). Table 6.1 displays the questions posed to assess the conditional probability in

an exemplary way using the element “information material”. Figure 6.1 demonstrates

all four possible scenarios (depending on the state of the two elements of “general

160

6.5. Methods

attitude”and “communication & information”). Experts were asked to indicate how

likely they find the realization of the scenarios in the right column. In the present case:

the probability that information material reaches the target group under the given

preconditions of positive/negative attitude of the person and sufficient/insufficient

communication of the topic.

A conditional probability table is assigned to every element in the network linking up

with other elements. These tables serve to further calculate the following probabilities,

and make it possible to calculate the conditional probabilities of the target variable.

The values gained for single elements, however, do not give any concrete information

about the state of the target variable (Table 6.1). When analyzing the returned

Table 6.1.:

Example from the questionnaire to gain the probabilities of the element

of “information material”.

How do you assess these scenarios for information material to reach its targeted group

using probabilities?

Scenario general attitude Communication

Information

information

material reaches

targeted group

1 positive sufficient %

2 positive insufficient %

3 negative sufficient %

4 negative insufficient %

questionnaires, difficulties lay particularly in the interpretation of different expert

opinions concerning an element state’s probability. How to handle diverging expert

opinions within BNs has not been completely clarified. Using the arithmetic mean is

one possibility; however, in some cases it is appropriate to weigh opinions depending

on the expertise and work field of the expert (Cain 2001; Keith 1996). In particular,

this approach is suitable if elements are specifically associated with the expert’s

different areas of profession. These values can be given emphasis in the calculation.

The present study uses weighed values; if opinions differed too widely and a weighing

process was not possible, both states were integrated into the network with a

probability of 50%. Using 50% for both states corresponds with a “no-go statement”

as the probability does not trend to one or the other direction.

Finally, BNs allow for a scenario creation and studying questions of“what if?”(Bromley

2005). With the help of software, the states of single elements can virtually be made

more likely or unlikely. The effect of the change in state on the target shows how

relevant the element is or potentially could be (Pollino and Henderson 2010), thus

what factors could influence the status quo. To display scenarios in a sufficient way,

more than one element is often changed and the consequences of a combination of

changes are tested (Bromley 2005).

161

6. Urban climate and heat stress

Besides the possibilities of BNs there are some disadvantages in the methodology

since the analysis relies on expert opinions and therefore contains uncertainties. The

limitations of the methodology are demonstrated in detail in the present article’s

Discussion section.

6.6. Results

The probability for a successful fa¸cade greening installation is determined by the

elements displayed in the network. The desired state for the target variable is the

implementation of green fa¸cades (which would ideally be 100%). The likelihood of

achieving this state under current circumstances is 2.03% (Figure 6.1).

According to the expert interview results, there are three main requirements to

realize fa¸cade greening: Financial capacity, supportive legal/technical conditions,

and willingness of involved homeowners to foster implementation. Those three

preconditions are further differentiated in the network.

Willingness to realize fa¸cade greening marks the beginning of the decision cascade; if

there is no basic disposition for the implementation, the financial, legal, and technical

possibilities would not be considered.

It is assumed that a communication of political/administrative actors with experts/

researchers leads to the production of information material. The assessment of

how active authorities and scientific experts engage in the communication showed

that authorities are responsible for distributing information among private actors;

however, a lack of a scientific foundation means that the topic does not reach the

political agenda. The information needs to address the target group - in this case, in

particular, the homeowners. They are key actors, whose willingness is decisive for

the implementation of fa¸cade greening.

Personal dispositions of homeowners towards greening their fa¸cades result mainly

from their general attitude towards the subject, the available information, and the

presence of good practice in the city. Legal requirements that need to be considered

with regards to fa¸cade greening are, for instance, heritage protection regulations of

buildings. The technical preconditions for greening a fa¸cade depend on the chosen

plant species and its growth, but also the fa¸cade being free of damage and it being

possible to apply stays (K¨

ohler 2012). For the present case, legal and technical

requirements are combined in the BN as they both are controlling and externally

induced constraints.

162

6.6. Results

Figure 6.1.: Bayesian network displaying likelihood of success for fa¸cade greening in the status quo in Berlin.

163

6. Urban climate and heat stress

Financial needs can be met if private capital is available, or there are financial

incentives offered by the authorities, in the Berlin case either the Senate or borough

administrations. A backyard greening program (providing financial incentives) can

be included into the network. Such a program has been acknowledged by the experts

as a strong instrument to raise the chances for a successful implementation of fa¸cade

greening. The integration of a backyard greening program refers to a respective

instrument of the Berlin Senate administration introduced in 1983 (K¨

ohler and

Schmidt 1997). The program is explained in detail in the discussion section.

Subsequently, the significance of every single element of the network will be analyzed

by raising the desired state of the tested element to a fictitious 100% (Table 6.2).

Table 6.2.:

Analysis of the influence of single elements on the target variable of fa¸cade

greening.

Element Desired state

that

fictitiously is

achieved by

100%

Results for

probability of

success for the

target variable

(Status

Quo= 2,03%)

Increase of

likelihood for

success

compared

with status

quo

General attitude positive 3,54% 1,51%

Technical conditions given 3,18% 1,15%

Legal requirements given 3,18% 1,15%

Financial prerequisites given 2,77% 0,74%

Backyard greening program given 2,77% 0,74%

Good practice recognized 2,55% 0,52%

Experts and researchers active 2,04% 0,01%

Authorities active 2,04% 0,01%

A ‘positive general attitude’ towards fa¸cade greening turned out to be the most

influential element of the network. A virtual increase of the element to 100% raises

the probability for success by 1.51% to 3.54%, if all other states stay the same. The

general attitude of actors is a consequence of one’s upbringing, education, and the

social environment, becoming influential to a certain extent. Examining the results in

more detail reveals that none of the elements, if they are changed individually, have a

decisive effect on the implementation of fa¸cade greening. A more detailed conclusion,

which elements are worth investing in, can in this case not be drawn. In addition, an

even further increase of success probability can be achieved by combining various

changes in elements. To do so, a preferably realistic scenario has been developed by

including the backyard greening program (Figure 6.2).

164

6.6. Results

Figure 6.2.:

Bayesian network for the implementation of fa¸cade greening with a backyard greening program and further

assumptions. The altered elements are displayed in grey color.

165

6. Urban climate and heat stress

In this scenario, fa¸cade greening is implemented at a probability rate of 14.7%.

On a fictitious level, a backyard greening program can be introduced and other

requirements that homeowners need to make use of it can be assumed to be fulfilled:

A positive attitude; open-mindedness towards ‘good practice’ of fa¸cade greening

in the city, and also that the fa¸cade qualifies technically and legally for installing

greening measures. The result shows that even if all necessary requirements are given,

it does not lead to a 100% chance for implementation.

The question remains what reasons there are for low expectations concerning the

probability for implementation of fa¸cade greening. Experts expressed further ideas in

the interviews, the most frequently mentioned was that fa¸cade greening is not likely

to be implemented as long as it is not financially worthwhile or obligatory. These

requirements cannot be fulfilled by a backyard greening program, as greening does

not pay off economically. Nevertheless, a backyard program would have benefits for

the implementation probability.

Moreover, the assumption was stated that as long as a definite confirmation for

the suitability of fa¸cade greening for climate change adaptation purposes is missing,

authorities will not actively pursue the implementation of fa¸cade greening beyond

the no-regret approach (4 oral). Another reason could be that green roofs are a more

widely-known measure (K¨

ohler 2008); with homeowners installing them, they get

an accessible roof garden and therefore receive direct benefits. Furthermore, the

political focus has strongly been on Carbon Dioxide (CO

) reduction measures such

as energy efficiency and isolation in buildings (Donner et al. 2015; 3 oral).

The question remains how the network can be influenced by elements that have no

parents. Within the chosen scope of analysis they cannot be influenced. However, with

other available means and opportunities beyond the ones suggested in the network,

those elements can be subject to change, too. This is applicable, for example, if there

is a change in the elements of technical and legal compliance. Different approaches

for action can be derived from fictitious scenarios including these elements. For

instance, this could include the construction of future houses in a way that fa¸cade

greening can be fitted retrospectively; therefore, 100% of all new buildings would be

suitable for fa¸cade greening purposes. The same holds true for the legal eligibility of

fa¸cades. A change in heritage protection laws, for example, could increase fa¸cade

greening chances as more fa¸cades would be legally eligible.

6.7. Discussion

Previous studies stress that there are only few adaptation processes which have

reached implementation (see Wamsler et al. 2013; Carmin et al. 2012; Moser and

Ekstrom 2010). This study also finds low implementation prospects for the adaptation

measure of fa¸cade greening. The current constellation of factors identified to be

166

6.7. Discussion

decisive for the implementation of fa¸cade greening in Berlin shows only a very low

probability value (2%). In the first instance the result suggests that decision-makers

need to consider if this adaptation measure is a suitable option. Other measures

might be more successful with regards to their implementation prospects in the

current local political landscape.

Yet, the study identified several factors that play an important role for the implemen-

tation of green fa¸cades, which mostly also play a role within the field of adaptation

planning and governance in general (e.g., Moser and Ekstrom 2010; Biesbroek et al.

2013; Mahlkow and Donner 2016). The BN analysis, however, allows for ranking the

influence of each of the factors on the outcome. In the case of fa¸cade greening the

“general attitude” of determinant actors is of outmost importance, while financial

prerequisites, legal and technical conditions also have an influence on the decision to

install green fa¸cades. These findings show the necessity to identify instruments and

build institutional structures that help to make the installation of fa¸cade greening

more independent from actor preferences.

Many authors have found similar factors to inhibit the implementation of climate

change adaptation. Lehmann et al. (2015), for example, showed the need for financial

support and political will. Appropriate incentives need to be set by the government.

However, these studies do not provide an insight into the actual influence such

incentives can have on the implementation of measures. The BN analysis can display

different scenarios which raise the probability for green fa¸cade installation. The

influence of enabling policy instruments (Bulkeley and Kern 2006) could be shown in

one scenario, which can be considered realistic (Figure 6.2). BN allowed to virtually

study the impacts of a “backyard greening program” along with other requirements

and could be identified as an incentive to significantly raise the implementation

probability.

While the network does not give an insight into the configuration of different elements

integrated into the BN such as the backyard greening program, their qualitative

features are of importance to underline the plausibility of the BN results. These

features can be singled out in the expert interviews used for the BN. For fa¸cade

greening implementation the experts referred to a program that was initiated by

the Berlin Senate Administration and has been in place between 1983 and 1995.

The state budget covered costs for the materials to green the grey backyards of

Berlin’s tenements, whereas the residents had to do the gardening work, including

greening roofs, fa¸cades, and backyards (Wrozlaw 1997). Without the impulse and

the material incentives set by the program, residents would not have considered or

realized greening measures in most backyards (Wrozlaw 1997). During its twelve years

running time, the program helped to green

32,475,000 ha

of fa¸cades in Berlin (K¨

ohler

and Schmidt 1997). Based on its success, it seems valid to call for the (re-)initiation

of a similar program; especially as an implementation of fa¸cade greening implies

more than just positive effects for the climatic situation in a city (Albers et al. 2015;

SenStadtUm 2011).

167

6. Urban climate and heat stress

For studying the implementation of adaptation measures, developing Bayesian net-

works offers the advantage of identifying the impact single elements have on solving

the policy problem of implementation, moreover, applying scenario analysis for policy

problems that are riddled with uncertainty, complexity and controversy can provide

important information for decision-makers (Mees et al. 2014). Probability values are

often used to measure uncertainties, and therefore are an opportunity to approach

topics previously characterized by a lack of empirical data (Morgan and Henrion 1990;

Uusitalo 2007). The innovative aspect of the study is that the factors influencing

the implementation of very specific adaptation measures as fa¸cade greening can be

identified, as well as linked with probabilistic values which shows their conditional

relation.

Besides the strengths some methodical features of Bayesian networks need to be born

in mind with regards to the study of fa¸cade greening. The displayed network can only

be a highly simplified display of the determining factors for the implementation of

fa¸cade greening. Due to its exemplary nature, the network might miss certain aspects

or might not differentiate others thoroughly enough; thus, it can depict reality only in

a fragmentary way (Morgan and Henrion 1990). Uncertainties with regards to model

creation reflect a missing consensus of interviewed experts on links between elements

and dependence of elements on each other (Morgan and Henrion 1990). Moreover, it

can be expected that expert opinions about the perception of the implementation

of fa¸cade greening differ as every person develops their own notion of the likelihood

of some event to occur according to their own knowledge and expertise (Morgan

and Henrion 1990; Chen and Pollino 2012). Uusitalo (2007) points to difficulties,

which result from creating BNs with expert knowledge: It is very uncommon for

most interviewees to express their knowledge in the form of probability values. It is

apparent that experts do not categorize their knowledge into probability values, but

they are only demanded to do so in the course of the survey (Morgan and Henrion

1990). Expert opinions may be erroneous and only an approximation of reality, but

they are better than “no data” and still the best available possibility to approach

certain questions (Uusitalo 2007). Hence the final result, the probability of the target

variable, cannot be considered an absolute number, but displays only a tendency. To

gain exact results and prognosis, BNs cannot be the method of choice (Chen and

Pollino 2012). However, they can be a valuable instrument to assess the influence

of different factors on the implementation of adaptation measures, especially when

they involve the engagement of private actors in the building stock such as fa¸cade

greening, and can therefore inform decision-makers on what pathways to stress to

raise implementation success.

168

6.8. Conclusion

This study deals with the supportive factors for the implementation success of fa¸cade

greening by using the Bayesian Networks (BN) method.

Fa¸cade greening is one suitable way to establish vegetation in cities despite the

development pressure. Ecosystem services gained by urban green have been known

for a long time, but implementation of greening devices such as green fa¸cades often

fails. The BN analysis confirmed that it is not a measure that is implemented

willingly, even if requirements that experts identify as necessary seem to be given.

The result leads to the assumption that the promotion of other adaptation measures

might be of greater success. However, enabling policy instruments such as a backyard

greening program can raise the prospect of implementation.

The paper shows Bayesian Networks to be useful tools to examine various factors

and their probabilistic influence on the implementation of climate change adaptation

measures such as green fa¸cades. Studying the probability of successful implementation

of other climate change adaptation measures is a noteworthy follow-up research.

Moreover, comparisons with other German cities with more financial means at their

command than the city of Berlin could be interesting.

6.9. Oral references

[1] Research project UCaHS (oral): Interview on June 03, 2015.

[2] Professor for landscape architecture (oral): Interview on June 25, 2015.

[3]

Climate protection manager borough administration (oral): Interview on June

02, 2015.

[4]

Climate protection manager borough administration (oral): Interview on June

08, 2015.

Wrozlaw, 1997: Vortragstext zu einem Vortrag ¨

uber das Hofbegr¨

unungsprogramm

Berlin (presentation about the backyard greening program).

169

6. Urban climate and heat stress

6.10. Acknowledgements

The study was part of the Research Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and Heat Stress

in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change” (www.UCaHS.org) funded by the

German Research Foundation (DFG) (KO 2952/2-1; SCHR 1254/2-1). The authors

thank the anonymous reviewers and all experts for their willingness to share their

knowledge with us.

170

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6. Urban climate and heat stress

6.12. Appendix

6.12.1. Questionnaire: Fa¸cade greening as climate adaptation measure –

Bayesian network analysis

How do you rate the probability that experts/researchers bring their knowledge

about fa¸cade greening active in a communication process with the political/ad-

ministrative actors?

Answer: %

Comments:

How likely is it, that the political/administrative part becomes actively involved

in the communication process and manages the creation of information material

about fa¸cade greening?

Answer: %

Comments:

How likely is it that a communication process between experts/researchers and

political/administrative actors takes place? Rate the four scenarios:

Szenario Political/

administrative

actors

Experts/

researcher

Communication is sufficient

and information material is

drawn up

1 active active %

2 active passive %

3 passive active %

4 passive passive %

Which of the both actors has a higher importance for a successful communi-

cation: the researchers and experts who generate knowledge or the political/

administrative actors who are in charge to communicate this knowledge?

Answer:

Comments:

How many of the Berlin citizens do you think have a “green” attitude and are

therefore open-minded about fa¸cade greening?

Answer: %

Comments:

178

6.12. Appendix

How likely is it, that the available Information material reaches the desired

target group (esp. homeowner)? Rate the four scenarios:

Szenario General

attitude

Communication +

Information material

reaches target group

1 positive sufficient %

2 positive insufficient %

3 negative sufficient %

4 negative insufficient %

Comments:

How likely is it, that citizens notice good practice examples of fa¸cade greening

in Berlin (by accident, in the daily routine)?

Answer: %

Comments:

In the following the probability of the personal willingness of the homeowner

(target group) is determined. Rate the eight scenarios:

Scenario Information

material

about fa¸cade

greening

General

attitude

Good practice

examples of

fa¸cade

greening in

Berlin

Personal

willingness of

homeowner for

implementation

of fa¸cade

greening

1 reaches target

group

positive are noticed %

2 reaches target

group

positive

are not noticed

3 reaches target

group

negative are noticed %

4 reaches target

group

negative

are not noticed

does not reach

target group

positive are noticed %

does not reach

target group

positive

are not noticed

does not reach

target group

negative are noticed %

does not reach

target group

negative

are not noticed

179

6. Urban climate and heat stress

Which of the three factors (Information material, general attitude and good

practice examples) influences the personal willingness of the homeowner the

most?

Answer:

Comments:

Estimation – there is no right or wrong: how many percent of the Berlin fa¸cades

would technically be suitable for a fa¸cade greening (with regard to exposition,

fire walls, materials etc.)?

Answer: %

Comments:

9. Rate on a scale from 0-10:

Imagine the influence of a backyard greening program (mainly financial support),

e.g., initiated from the senate department of environment. In your opinion,

how would a financial support affect the implementation frequency of fa¸cade

greening?

little medium strong

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Comments:

10.

How likely is it that a homeowner has other financial means (assets, loans) for

the implementation of a fa¸cade greening?

Answer: %

Comments:

11.

Finally the implementation probability is determined. Rate the eight scenarios:

Scenario Legal +

technical

conditions

Financial

prerequisites

Personal

willingness

Implementation

probability

1 given given given %

2 given given not given %

3 given not given given %

4 given not given not given %

5 not given given given %

6 not given given not given %

7 not given not given given %

8 not given not given not given %

12. General remarks/ comments on the method:

180

7. Conclusion

181

7. Conclusion

“The challenge that climate change presents to planning, is unprecedented in scale

and scope, but, in certain critical respects, this challenge is similar to other planning

problems. (. . . ) Planning is conducted every day under conditions of uncertainty,

in the presence of system effects, and where programmatic options may be non-

incremental, exclusive or irreversible (Donaghy 2007).”

The challenge described above lies in recognizing the underlying synergies and

conflicts in the implementation process and determining how to deal with them,

all while understanding the trade-offs necessary in planning. To respond to this

challenge, climate change demands a three-pronged strategy in cities and urban

areas. Measures to protect and preserve the global climate (mitigation) must be

undertaken. At the same time, strategies to respond to the unavoidable impacts of

climate change (adaptation) must be developed. Finally, both groups of actions must

be coordinated with the other pressing tasks of sustainable urban development, like

the urban building boom (BBSR 2009; Chapter 5). These influential decisions will

reach far into the future and require the adoption of clear goals and guidelines for

development in the coming decades.

Worldwide scientific attention to climate change has increased in recent years. Dis-

cussion of heat and how to deal with it has become embedded in national and

international discourse and politics (Vink 2013). From both a climatologic and

political perspective, the choice of city for this analysis, Berlin, Germany, makes for

a very interesting case study (J¨

anicke 2016; [15]). As a northern mid-latitude city,

Berlin has little experience with extreme temperatures. In the day to day life of a

citizen, whether at work or in free time activities, heat concerns have generally been

given little attention (Schuster et al. 2014; Mahlkow 2016; [15]). Climate models

project a significant increase in extreme weather in the future, however. A higher

mortality rate due to urban heat stress emphasizes the coming problems (Endlicher

et al. 2008; Scherer et al. 2013).

Berlin developed from various villages that merged over time and this heterogeneity

is still tangible both physically and in the institutions of government. The city

administration consists of the Berlin Senate and the twelve District Authorities. Each

district’s administration has developed differently over time and this also influences

how they handle climate issues. For example, in the districts where there is a

director of climate change mitigation, this position is sometimes in the Environmental

Department and sometimes directly under the local mayor’s control ([2]; Chapter 3).

According to interviews, climate adaptation has been promoted in Berlin’s adminis-

tration as part of a process in which individual departments examine the currently

important themes in the international political discourse, attempt to bring these

into the local frame, and establish Berlin’s position related to them [15]. Political

response to these complex ideas has been erratic at all levels (Vink et al. 2013).

For some time, local politicians and planners have also debated climate adaptation.

Berlin has tried to be a pioneer for climate adaptation nationally and internationally.

182

7.1. Answering Question 1

Real-world implementation, however, has lagged and will require a different type of

work - research alone cannot put adaptation strategies into practice (Chapter 3).

7.1. Which urban planning level is the most promising for

releasing, steering, and fostering supportive

interventions for the integration of urban heat stress

mitigation and adaptation policies?

Reducing the current and future impacts of climate change will require substantial

efforts by planners. The previous chapters identified several opportunities for promis-

ing or supportive interventions for the integration of climate adaptive strategies

in planning. The central question is: how can Berlin develop lasting resilience to

the negative consequences of climate change? The primary goal in this should be

to preserve and, where possible, improve quality of life in the city. In order to

achieve this, numerous levels government and stakeholders from different fields will

be responsible, though in this dissertation only the environmental planning and

urban planning have been illuminated.

Analysis of different levels of the planning process in Chapters 2-6 clearly demonstrates

many possibilities for the integration of climate adaptation measures in practice.

Options at the level of the Berlin Senate Department down to the individual block

level were identified and examined in their respective chapters. In order to implement

guidelines at the district level, they must be created and adopted at the city-wide level

by the Senate’s Department for Urban Development and Environment. Therefore,

the planners and decision makers must coordinate the different actors at different

levels and positions, a challenging task (Chapter 5).

Considering the extreme effects of climate change on the local community, adaptation

highlights the special responsibility of urban planning legislation to protect the public

(Urwin and Jordan 2008; Watts et al. 2015). At the highest administrative level,

the city’s comprehensive land-use plan is especially relevant to climate adaptation.

This plan is the foundation for all further urban planning in Berlin’s individual

districts (Chapter 3; Chapter 5; Chapter 6; Battis et al. 2010; Birkmann et al.

2012; Kumar and Geneletti 2015; Measham et al. 2011; [1]). In addition to the

comprehensive land-use plan, which shapes policy at the city level, Berlin’s experts

cite the local land-use plan (which formulates provisions for the block level) as

the most important instrument through which adaptation strategies are actually

implemented e.g., greenery or fa¸cade greening (Chapter 3; 5; 6).

For a deeper look, Chapter 5 analyzed to what extent climate adaptation measures

play a role in environmental and land-use planning. Consideration of these issues

was shown to be inconsistent at best and, in many cases, nonexistent. One major

183

7. Conclusion

problem is that heat is not given political priority in Berlin as a risk factor for

urban residents, infrastructure, and environment (Chapter 3 and 5). A number

of possibilities to tackle barriers for heat risk preventative governance have been

identified in this work (e.g., public participation and an existence of an environmental

assessment), but formal policy and planning instruments will need to be targeted more

specifically to that purpose. The likelihood that these changes would be integrated

was estimated at 71.8% (see Chapter 5). This relatively high number raises an

important question, though: why aren’t our local land-use plans climate adapted?

Until now, different government levels and departments, as well as other actors, have

acted relatively independently from one another. A coordinated approach to tackle

heat risks systematically and specific policy guidance on how handle implementation

in plans has not yet been created (Chapter 3 and 5; Berke 2006). Vulnerability to

urban heat is unquestionably linked to governance strategies for urban development

(SenStadtUm 2016c). Furthermore, the responsibilities of individual tiers of local

government need to be clearly delineated and coordinated. Allocating specific roles

related to heat risks will improve the integration of heat stress into planning policy

and governance processes.

The results underline that there is no single urban planning level most promising

for releasing, steering, and fostering supportive interventions for the integration of

urban heat stress mitigation and adaptation policies into urban planning. At first

glance, the local land-use plan seems to be the strongest instrument. But it is not

solely responsible for the implementation of climate adaptation measures, and it

can be influenced by outside players. The results of this study reveal a gap both

in awareness and, especially, in implementation of measures to adapt the urban

fabric to heat stress, as well as in the ability of institutions and actors to adequately

handle related risks and vulnerabilities. The interviewees also confirm that successful

implementation works only if all levels interact together (Baker et al. 2012; Chapter 3

and 5]. Therefore, a new institution is needed to take on responsibility for adaptation

action and coordinate all relevant adaptation strategies, projects and discourses. This

institution would provide others with necessary information and act as a resource,

enabling knowledge transfer (UBA 2013; Odparlik 2017; Swart et al. 2014; Tethys

2017).

7.2. What challenges and constraints do urban planners face

in their daily practice related to the integration of the

concept of heat risk, and how can these be handled?

There is a broad field of research related to mitigation of and adaptation to urban heat

stress, but it is mainly focused on very technical topics within the natural sciences

(Mahlkow 2016). It is increasingly clear, however, that professional knowledge and

experience with adaptation strategies is limited (Chapter 3; Vink et al. 2013). It

184

7.2. Answering Question 2

is still unknown how planners and decision makers, especially in cities in moderate

climate zones, should understand and confront the challenges of urban heat stress

(Chapter 3; 5; Mahlkow 2016). The intrinsic complexity of cities, which the various

adaptation measures must take into account, further confounds the issue.

Almost all German cities have developed strategies and plans for climate change

mitigation and adaptation (Chapter 2). Climate regulations such as these are still

very new and there is a lack of research about how they will be implemented in

public and, especially, private practice (Chapter 3). So, how do decision makers deal

with urban heat? What kind of challenges does this issue pose?

The international discourse of climate adaptation is important to spur the process

[15], but how the idea is confronted and acted on is a local phenomenon. Urban

sociologists consider this part of the intrinsic individual logic of cities (Berking and

L¨

ow 2008; Mahlkow 2016). Past legal and government practices have built unique

institutional structures in cities and these influence how new issues are handled.

Therefore, the fact that climate adaptation is not uniformly recognized nationally is

due to different planning cultures and different ways of tackling the topic in plans

and programs (Bubecka 2016).

Berlin’s climate policy is led by the city government and by the Senate Department

for Urban Development and Environment. In Berlin, the dominant political discourse

at the administration level is focused on housing concerns (Chapter 3). Mitigation

and adaptation have yet to play a significant role in urban development decisions

(Chapter 3). The building boom in Berlin can be felt all over the city. Increasing

demand for living space and the needs of the growing city are the first priority.

Because of this, according to the experts interviewed, adaptation and heat stress are

given little consideration: climate policies are secondary to other concerns.

The fact that Berlin is a very green city means that it is already somewhat adapted

for urban heat (Chapter 3 and 5; Sprondel et al. 2016). That climate adaptation calls

for an alteration to traditional building habits rather than a total ban on construction

is an idea that is only slowly spreading. The high demand for living space has put

quite some pressure behind the possible development of housing on available green

and open spaces in Berlin (Chapter 5 and 6; Kabisch 2015). Depending on the

intended lifespan of new buildings, that could mean an occupation of this space for

up to 100 years [15]. This underlines that current policy and infrastructure decisions

and strategies may have serious consequences for the next decades (Vink 2013). In

the especially dense districts in the inner city, increased building density will lead to

further warming if it is not done in a climate-adapted manner (Scherer et al. 2013).

Decisions about this development, however, will be inconsistent, made at different

times by different people and depending on the urgency of the process (Vink 2013).

Additionally, these decisions concern new issues rather than the more traditional

ones. The actors cannot rely on the knowledge they have gathered over previous

years but must think in a future-oriented way (Greiving 2010).

185

7. Conclusion

The city government must take a central role in the implementation of climate-related

policy. They can set the topics which have to be observed by the Senate Department

and they have to set clear standards. The private sector cannot be relied on to

implement climate measures on their own. Berlin’s administration is organized into

several sectors, and, therefore, its work is defined by these pre-existing categories.

Each sector has its own kind of reasoning or logic (Chapter 3; 5; Mahlkow 2016;

Sprondel et al. 2016).

The Senate Department provides the conceptual framework for urban development.

The twelve District Authorities, though they may have their own forms, are subordi-

nate to the Senate. Experts have indicated that the work of the Senate’s Department

for Urban Development and Environment (SenStadtUm) and of the individual dis-

tricts is often in conflict [2, 15]. The districts complain that SenStadtUm publishes

informal concepts but does not explain their usage [3, 11, 16]. One issue is that

all the implementation work is transferred to the lower levels of the local land-use

plans (Chapter 3 and 5; [11]). The interviewees from Berlin’s districts stated that

they cannot discharge their responsibilities for implementation without staff, clear

guidelines, and sufficient budget allowances (Baker et al. 2012; Heiland 2017, 172, 189;

[2, 11, 15]). Another factor is that scientific knowledge of climate change adaptation

has not adequately seeped into the operational planning level of each district [15].

These difficulties arise because the effects of climate change are so called new risks,

and these objectives are less related to traditional, well-known issues [11]. Climate

change poses new, forward-looking questions which cannot be easily answered without

corresponding knowledge (Greiving 2010).

The experts believe that the Senate Department for Urban Development and En-

vironment can play an advisory role for technical, modelling, and project-specific

knowledge. The Senate Department provides information in the form of leaflets

and brochures, but the district authorities claim that these documents provide too

much general information and lack a concrete guidance on how to manage this new

topic (Chapter 3). How sustainable this role can be, considering the often brief

time allowed for scientific and technical guidance on active projects, is uncertain

(Chapter 5).

For all these reasons, Berlin’s governing bodies will find it challenging to push for

the inclusion of adaptation measures in construction projects. To help address this

issue, the City Climate Development Plan (StEP Klima) ‘KONKRET’ was adopted

in summer 2016 as a support to the Berlin StEP Klima. The plan is both educational

and solution-oriented. It identifies heat risks as a local problem and communicates

how to handle it with coping strategies (Chapter 3; Dupuis and Knoepfel 2011).

It represents an important step towards bringing attention to relevant local actors

and available tools. Despite this, Berke et al. (2006) found that in cases such

as this significant action is only taken on “(. . . ) strict interpretation of policies,

legalistic procedures, formal written communication rather than informal verbal

communication (. . . ).” Additionally, the implementation of climate change policy is

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7.2. Answering Question 2

difficult because it often competes with other fields like economic, social, and political

processes. The special challenge here is to reframe climate adaptation’s perceived

role to include these socio-economic conditions (Bulkeley 2010; Carter et al. 2015;

Chapter 4; [2, 13]).

The lack of competency in this field is a major problem. Climate change will have

major political and social repercussions and many of these will play out spatially in

the urban environment. It is obvious even now that a comprehensive set of response

strategies will be needed. While this has been recognized, at least theoretically,

clear division of responsibility at the administrative level has yet to appear. As

recommended above, translation of adaptation strategies into daily planning practices

requires an exchange of knowledge and experience between government and district

levels. Our interviews also showed that the integration of new topics, like climate

adaptation, is often difficult. Practitioners need to understand how to link the formal

and informal planning and governance instruments at different levels (Chapter 3

and 5). This will require advanced training and constant communication between

all urban government levels. Therefore, politicians need to increase the resources

and personnel capacity assigned to support adaptation implementation (Carter et al.

2015; Chapter 3 and 5). The shortage of personnel in Berlin, mentioned repeatedly in

our interviews, is one of the reasons these topics and the issues arising therefrom are

not managed well currently (Berke et al. 2006). Studies show that staff capacity has

an important influence on adaptation methods when plans are acted upon (Dalton

and Burby 1994; Burby 2003; Chapter 5). More staff means more capacity to achieve

plan goals, more attention to plan policies and associated rules, and better interaction

and coordination with other public agencies (Berke et al. 2006; Chapter 4). After 20

years of no city employment expansion, Berlin is now beginning to staff new positions

[2, 11, 15].

There is a striking contrast in the requirements of research into the effects of climate

change as opposed to that into implementation of the strategies that could lead to a

well-organized approach to climate change through various planning and analysis

tools. In general, climate change remains a socially and politically inconvenient issue,

which, due to many factors, is only slowly being incorporated into the planning

process (Amudsen et al. 2010; Cannon and M¨

uller-Mahn 2010; Chapter 3). Inte-

grated approaches that include multi-actor and multi-level governance are needed to

coordinate the complex interplay of the many different actors and activities tackling

the complex issue of urban heat stress adaptation measures (Chapter 3). Practitioners

are apprehensive about the changes in thinking and politics that this will entail.

Also problematic is the long-term nature of this type of planning and the uncertainty

about climate change’s exact effects. Strategies on timelines as distant as 2050 are

discussed without a concrete idea of how the public will be impacted (Chapter 4). It

is difficult for many stakeholders, who have pressing short-term concerns, to prioritize

these issues. In Berlin, politics generally runs on a five year cycle. A change in

long term planning practice is challenging because it is outside of the usual scope of

187

7. Conclusion

policy makers who function inside these five-year policy phases [15]. In addition, the

seriousness of the impacts of climate change is not emphasized because these cannot

yet be seen or felt acutely [2, 6, 7, 10, 15].

Even considering the climate adaptation planning efforts to date, heat stress mitiga-

tion remains very novel in Berlin’s urban planning context (Chapter 3). Specifically,

Berlin’s climate plan is more focused on the scale and nature of climate change

impacts in the city. Because of the extremely localized character of these impacts

and possible solutions it will be difficult to raise awareness and support through

traditional media coverage, peer effects, and other channels as has been done for

climate mitigation (Chapter 3; Millard- Ball 2012; [15]).

7.3. Do planners and policy makers have an adequate basic

set of urban planning tools to make plan

implementation, especially related to heat stress,

successful?

All of the interviewed experts explored to what extent new planning tools could

assist in urban climate change adaptation. They were, contradictory to the findings

of several studies which demand new tools for climate adaptation (Birkmann et al.

2010; Greiving 2003; Greiving 2010; Kropp and Daschkeit 2008; Othengrafen 2014),

in agreement that the tools currently used in planning practice are sufficient and

there is no need for new planning instruments for this purpose [1-15]. However,

documents that link policy implementation to planning practice (Mastop and Faludi

1997; Talen 1996) underline that planners have not yet developed a consistent ability

to connect plans and or standard implementation practices to successful realization

of goals (Berke et al. 2006; Stone et al. 2012).

To figure out if experts have an adequate basic set of urban planning tools, the

urban planning instruments planners in Berlin do have to implement the adaptation

strategies for urban heat stress into the local land-use plans should be explored. In

addition, it is important to examine how much“weight”or influence on implementation

the individual instruments have. To answer these questions, we analyzed current

plans and the formal regulations and informal norms or habits which guide planning

practice. Heat as a climate change adaptation issue is mentioned in policies related

to the general strategic development goals, including the urban landscape strategy,

planning and building competitions, and the ecological building concept.

If climate adaptation were valued higher at the basic, organizational level e.g., the

German Federal Building Code (BauGB) or the comprehensive land-use plan, it

would also receive more attention in local land-use planning. Therefore, an ongoing

discourse is vital, as formal local land-use plans can only deal with the topics that

188

7.3. Answering Question 3

were already included in their planning process. For example, the Senate Department

could include the integration of adaptation measures in the evaluation requirements

for bids to complete city projects. These requests for proposals and competitive

bidding processes have a major impact on the success of the implementation of

adaptation measures. Having a construction or project management company that

is ‘green’ or climate-oriented plays a vital role. Together with the district processes,

this type of intervention can help to anchor the position of adaptation in the policy

and contracts that shape urban development (Chapter 5).

One instrument is the Biotope Area Factor (BAF). It provides an opportunity to

safeguard a specific amount of dedicated green and open space and is best suited

to the preservation of these spaces (Kazmierczak and Carter 2010). Its goal is to

improve the ecological situation in Berlin’s inner city (Becker et al. 1990; Othengrafen

2014). The BAF plays a rather minor role, though, due to its position in landscape

planning rather than local land-use plans. In some Berlin districts, the landscape

plans were repealed because a lack of perceived necessity (Sprondel et al. 2016a).

The experts we spoke to agreed, however, that the BAF can contribute to adaptation

through its direct influence on green and open space allowances in new construction

(Chapter 3 and 4; Othengrafen 2014).

An additional principle which can bring more attention to adaptation measures

is a guideline known as sample regulation. This guideline, created by the Senate

Department for Urban Development and Environment, serves to standardize the

preparation of local land-use plans. Strategies defined here must be taken into

account (Chapter 5). So far, climate adaptation measures do not play any role in this

document. Although it requires consideration of housing and greenspace concerns,

their specific relation to heat or adaptation to climate change is not mentioned

(SenStadtUm 2012).

Studies also showed, though, that a binding commitment for integration must exist

at higher levels. The best starting point would be an implementation of adaptation

strategies into city planning competitive bids (Sprondel et al. 2016). Through

these, the Senate Department can set the framework of requirements for the investor.

With this established criteria, one can control the climate appropriateness concretely.

Another option is action through public and administrative participation when a local

land-use plan is implemented (Baker et al. 2012; Chapter 5). According to Sprondel

et al. (2016), this administrative participation in legitimizing climate adaptation is

one of the elements which, alone, has the strongest influence on the implementation

of adaptation measures.

In order to give climate change concerns more significance, they should be included

in environmental impact statement as well (Larsen et al. 2013; Larsen 2014; Odparlik

et al. 2012; Sprondel et al. 2016). These reports are first developed at the level of

the local land-use plans. As Chapter 5 showed, the presence of environmental impact

statements leads to demonstrably better integration of climate adaptation measures.

189

7. Conclusion

From interviews, we learned §13a (simplified procedure) of the BauGB has led to

a substantial reduction of environmental assessments in the inner city. Developers

also often ask for exemptions from environmental assessment requirements because

of time and cost concerns (Chapter 5). In order to promote climate-adapted local

land-use plans, the BauGB should be amended to require environmental impact

statements.

The Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and

Nuclear Safety (BMUB) has recently published a draft amendment to the BauGB to

implement Directive 2014/52/EU on urban planning and to strengthen the“new living

in the city” (BMUB 2016). Therefore, the basic duty of the preliminary examination

of the individual case (§2 (4) 4 BauGB) has been formalized for all applications. The

mandate of this preliminary examination, on the one hand, reduces the perceived

advantages of the accelerated process, but, on the other, serves as vital protection

for ecological and health concerns through the support of an environmental impact

statement.

Another possibility would be an amendment §34 of the BauGB. The §34 gives

the investor admissibility to build his projects in developed districts without a

preparation of a local land-use plan. Neither public participation nor environmental

impact statement is necessary. This is the reason why there are sometimes no local

land-use plans in Berlin. This aggravates the situation in areas of especially high

climate impact [2], underlining that integrating climate adaptation measures will

certainly require some changes to these planning norms. Therefore the BMUB should

amend the §34 BauGB that the statute is to be excluded if there are indications that

the installation of the respective plans is subject to the prohibition of the Federal

Emmission Control Act (§50 (1) BImSchG 2016).

7.4. Discussion and Conclusion

Planning faces several other duties related to climate adaptation, including developing

responses to the uncertainty of climate change’s timing and impacts, the long-term

nature of climate scenarios, and the existing planning structure (Othengrafen 2014).

Identifying barriers is a first step to resolving that (Biesbroek et al. 2014).

Despite the many options for dealing with urban heat through planning, there has

been little progress. Experience with how to deal with this has not yet been developed

(Chapter 2; 3; 5). Unlike noise, for example, heat is only a major problem for a

couple of weeks per year and thus it hasn’t been assigned a high priority [4, 8, 9].

The experts cite a lack of targets and goals to indicate necessity of or success related

to adaptation, which makes it difficult to justify, legally, the use of some planning

tools for this purpose. No specific tipping points, measurements, or goals have been

adopted by any administration in this field (Chapter 3 and 4; Mahlkow 2016). Some

190

7.4. Discussion and Conclusion

of the blame was also assigned to shortages in personnel and resources in urban

planning departments: where staff are overwhelmed, it is difficult to take on complex

challenges.

As the population of industrialized countries spends most of their time in confined

spaces (90%) (Brasche and Bischof 2005; H¨

oppe and Martinac 1998; H¨

oppe 2002;

J¨

anicke 2016), indoor heat stress must be given more attention in the planning process

[15]. The outdoor climate affects the indoor climate (Mills et al. 2010; Nguyen et al.

2014), but the exact influence cannot be generalized easily because of the diversity

of buildings (e.g., building design, material, cooling systems) (H¨

oppe and Martinac

1998). The problem of indoor heat stress is mostly lost in the adaptation plans or is

mentioned only in the course of the fa¸cade greening (SenStadtUm 2011; [15]).

Often, aspects related to climate adaptation are included in the implementation of

the plans, but other reasons for their inclusion are given in outside communication

(i.e., other environmental purposes) [3]. The courts are expected to push for more

transparency in local planning and development in the near future [3, 11]. No current

decisions could be found which deal explicitly with climate adaptation. The general

recognition of climate adaptation in §1 Abs. 5 (2) of the BauGB has not been

sufficient to bring it into planning practice. Instead, implementation has relied on

the initiative shown by individual district staff in recognizing and tackling climate

adaptation ([11]; Bubecka 2016; Sprondel et al. 2016).

This evaluation of the current legislation demonstrates that adaptation has been

integrated explicitly into only a few laws and regulations. Only the German Regional

Planning Act (ROG), the BauGB, the German Federal Water Act (WHG) and

Berlin’s Energy Transition Act take legal positions related to adaptation. Berlin is

playing a pioneering role with the adoption of the law. Seen positively, this indicates

that, at least in the legislation, a general consensus about the significance of climate

adaptation is being reached. On the other hand, the length of time it will take for

these ideas to take hold and seep through the long urban and regional planning

process will delay the implementation of climate adaptation measures (Bubecka

2016).

The Senate Department of urban development and housing is responsible for the

institutionalization of climate change concerns. The interviewees felt, however, that

extreme heat and heat stress have not been fully incorporated because urban planning

is perceived as being supportive of more development rather than obstructive. This

contradicts the historic understanding of urban development in Berlin (Mahlkow

2016). Although the StEP Klima and the relatively new StEP Klima KONKRET

exist, heat adapted building and development have not yet been embraced by the

major stakeholders. Both plans have an informal character. Climate adaptation via an

informal, flexible instrument is at risk of being pushed completely into the background

by other targets which are dominate in local politics. To involve climate change

adaptation measures into day to day planning practice, communication between the

191

7. Conclusion

Senate Department and the districts is necessary. Therefore, training courses on how

to handle the topic and strict long- and short-term guidelines and standards have to

be created (Chapter 5). The problem is that as long as an instrument is voluntarily,

it is only used by those who also benefit from it (Chapter 5).

Urban citizens will need to be protected from heat indoors and outdoors as climate

change worsens. While urban planning is characteristically occupied with new

building sites and new development, increasing heat risk in cities will require re-

focusing on the existing urban structure. How exactly city administrations will meet

this challenge is uncertain. Some guidance may be taken from the development of

urban greening programs, which have united public and private organizations and

actors for tree planning and urban gardening. But, with many measures, the city’s

hands are tied. Adaptation measures on private land can only be implemented by

the owners of land (Greiving 2008).

As Chapter 6 showed, ‘green’ ideas are currently popular in Berlin and have been

promoted by the city government. This image as a green city is also important for

heat risk policy. 45% of Berlin’s total area consists of either green space or water

(Dugord et al. 2014; Chapter 3). Greenery has an important role in evaporative

cooling, which makes it an essential part of the response to climate change in urban

areas. Because Berlin already has so much green space, the potential adaptive

capacity of the city is relatively high (SenStadtUm 2011). This gives the appearance

that we are well prepared for climate change here; an opinion which the experts

interviewed also shared (Chapter 6). This indicates that the city’s image has affected

perception of the need for action (Chapter 3; Mahlkow and Kalt, submitted). How

well these existing green spaces will retain their function in the future depends

primarily on their resilience, i.e., how they can tolerate and adapt to changes in

climate (SenStadtUm 2009). That other development concerns and extreme climate

changes in the future may hinder or even eliminate the potential for urban greening

is rarely discussed (Chapter 6).

The Berlin Senate’s 2011 StEP Klima discusses climate adaptation and urban develop-

ment in terms of the built environment of the city. The interviewees complained that

the plan does not contain concrete administrative practice and formal planning tools.

Therefore, the StEP Klima KONKRET, adopted in summer 2016, was intended to

fill these gaps. Instead of new conceptual information, interviewees claimed they

need specific instructions about how to take action on adaptation issues. StEP Klima

KONKRET is intended to provide these in-depth guidelines that were requested and

to act as a handbook for professional practice in this area. Thus, it should introduce

and promote scientific and technical input at all levels.

On the other hand the Senate Department and the district staff have to have the

diversity of vulnerability of the citizens in their mind. Our experts are guided for

example by the StEP Klima of Berlin. If an area in that plan was not indicated as

a hot spot, then no adaptation strategies were implemented for that area. But, a

192

7.5. Outlook and recommendations

climatic improvement of the property can be done almost everywhere. In order to

be able to do so the planners and politicians need to know which important role

adaptation strategies can play in order to reduce morbidity and mortality (Kinney et

al. 2008; Wolf et al. 2010).

7.5. Outlook and recommendations

This case study of Berlin demonstrates the various barriers that urban planning

related to climate change can face within existing administrative structures and how

some of these barriers can be overcome. Moser and Luers (2008) have proposed three

categories for effective climate change action“awareness, analysis and action”. Related

to awareness, there is a clear need for an unambiguous delineation of responsibilities

and for better coordination among the planners, government officials, and private

actors who currently function relatively independently. Furthermore, the analysis of

the forces that drive heat policy integration helps define what obstacles these solutions

may face. Related to action, discussion and integration of adaptation concerns must

be included from the beginning and at all levels of the planning process because local

level planning is totally reliant on pre-existing, high level planning guidelines and

structure. Thus, the basic assumptions that underlie and shape land-use planning

are an important subject (Baker et al. 2012; Moser and Luers 2008).

Analysis of the individual plans and programs that have been adopted to address

climate change clarify that urban heat stress is only touched upon in passing, if at

all. In Berlin discussion of housing is dominant at all planning levels. During the

weighting process, the climatic aspects cannot compete against the pressure from the

building sector (Chapter 3 and 5). Berlin must create housing, but not every space

should be used for construction. It is also necessary to pay attention to preservation

and expansion of the greenery in Berlin.

Landscape planning can play an important role in ensuring high-quality development

in inner cities.This means protection against extreme over-crowding, ensuring com-

pensation with free spaces for the built-up area [2]. Therefore, further research is

needed to generate manageable climate programs that are able to analyze for building

initiative what exactly may happen if a plot is covered by buildings, unsealed, or

revegetated with suitable plans. In the future it will be necessary to examine how the

environment will affect the project and not how the project impacts the environment

(Birkmann and Fleischhauer 2009).

Furthermore, it must be asked whether the comprehensive land-use plan in its current

form is losing - or has already lost - its regulatory power (Chapter 5; Othengrafen

2014). A comprehensive land-use plan should provide reliable and consistent guidance

for mandatory land-use planning. Considering the uncertain future presented by

climate change, this current form of the comprehensive plan seems to be out of date

193

7. Conclusion

(Othengrafen 2014; [2]). Experts agree that increasing uncertainty will exacerbate

the weaknesses of comprehensive land-use plans and, according to Chapter 5, the

time and personnel required to create them may no longer be justified [2, 8, 11].

These experts suggest that comprehensive land-use plans forgo concrete, area-specific

determinations of land-uses and focus instead on communicating clear strategies and

goals. This would require, however, a re-working of the underlying legal structure.

Further research is needed to examine how the new amendment, StEP Klima

KONKRET, from the summer of 2016 will affect the implementation of local plans,

especially as related to climate. This includes three areas which need immediate

action: urban spaces under particular climate stress, air cooling pathways into and

out of the city, and Berlin’s forests (SenStadtUm 2016a). The reduced validity of

the comprehensive land-use plan in its current form needs more investigation. The

Senate Department has initiated several adaptation strategies: the Berlin Energy

and Climate Protection Program (2016) and a draft adjustment concept with strate-

gic and activity-based orientations, which is to be implemented within the energy

and climate protection program, both not yet adopted [15]. These are promising

initiatives but their actual impact on the issues of climate adaptation discussed here

will require further investigation.

194

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7.7. Interviews

[1] District office Steglitz-Zehlendorf, 16.07.2015.

[2] District office Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, 11.02.2016

[3] District office Tempelhof-Sch¨

oneberg, 16.02.2016

[4] District office Neuk¨

olln, 18.02.2016

[5] Planning office 01, 19.02.2016

[6] District office Lichtenberg, 22.02.2016

[7] Architectural association, 25.02.2016

[8] Planning office 02, 25.02.2016

[9] District office Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf LaPla, 25.02.2016

[10] Senate Department legal examination, 26.02.2016

[11] District office Mitte, 29.02.2016

[12] Nature conservation organisation 01, 16.03.2016

[13] District Council, 06.04.2016

[14] Nature conservation organisation 02, 05.04.2016

[15] Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment, 06.12.2013

[16] District office Mitte 07.07.2014

203

204

A. Author Contribution Statement

Five of the core chapters of this thesis (Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6) have been developed

by the author in cooperation with colleagues and the supervisor of this thesis. The

author of the thesis in all five cases has been involved considerably in the conceptual

design, research and writing of the five papers. The following sections provide more

detailed.

A.1. Chapter 2

The manuscript: “Urban heat - towards adapted German cities? Journal of Environ-

mental Assessment Policy and Management”.

The conceptual design and the structure of the paper was developed by the author.

The writing was mainly done by the author with additions and support by Juliana M.

M¨

uller. Johann K¨

oppel furthermore provided critical feedback and reviewed earlier

versions of the paper.

A.2. Chapter 3

The idea and the first version of this paper: “From Planning to Implementation?

The Role of Climate Change Adaptation Plans to Tackle Heat Stress - A Case Study

of Berlin, Germany” (Journal of Planning Education and Research) was developed by

the author with additions of the supervisor Prof. Johann K¨

oppel. Nicole Mahlkow

then reviewed, reshaped and rewrote the manuscript. The data collection and analysis

for the paper and the revision was conducted by Nicole Mahlkow and the author.

A.3. Chapter 4

The manuscript: “Developing storylines for urban climate governance by using

constellation analysis - insights from a case study in Berlin, Germany.”

Journal: Urban Climate. Nicole Mahlkow conceptualized, structured and wrote the

article with contributions from Prof. Tobia Lakes. The data collection and analysis

205

A. Author Contribution Statement

for this article was mainly done by Nicole Mahlkow with substantial support of the

author. Furthermore, the author provided critical feedback throughout the writing

process. Prof. Johann K¨

oppel and Prof. Miranda Schreurs revised and proof-read

all parts of the paper.

A.4. Chapter 5

The manuscript: “Climate adaptation at the local level: A Bayesian network analysis

of local land-use plan implementation” (submitted by Journal of Environmental

Assessment Policy and Management).

The conceptual design of the paper was developed by the author. The structure and

main content of the paper was developed and written by the author, with additions

and support by Nora F. Sprondel. Johann K¨

oppel furthermore provided critical

feedback and reviewed earlier versions of the paper.

A.5. Chapter 6

The manuscript: “Urban climate and heat stress: how likely is the implementation of

adaptation measures in mid-latitude cities? The case of fa¸cade greening analyzed

with Bayesian networks” (Journal one Ecosystem).

The manuscript is based on results of Nora F. Sprondel’s Bachelor thesis “Urbaner

Hitzestress in Berlin - Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeiten von Anpassungsmaßnahmen er-

mittelt mit Bayesian Networks”; supervised by the author and Johann K¨

oppel. Data

collection and analysis for the manuscript has been conducted by Nora F. Sprondel;

continuously shaped through feedback and support provided by the supervisors.

Major parts of the article were written by Nora F. Sprondel with contributions,

revisions and extended information by the author of this thesis.

Nicole Mahlkow then reviewed, restructured and in parts extended the manuscript.

Johann K¨

oppel provided critical feedback and reviewed earlier versions of the paper.

206

B. Curriculum Vitae

Julie Donner is associate researcher at the Environmental Assessment and Planning

Research Group at the Berlin Institute of Technology since 2012. Employed in the

DFG (German research Foundation) - Research Group 1736 “Urban Climate and

Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (UCaHS)”. She graduated

with a degree in Landscape Planning (Diplomingenieurin Landschaftsplanung) from

the Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin).

207

208

C. List of Publications

C.1. Peer-reviewed articles

Donner, J., M¨

uller, J. M., K¨

oppel, J. (2015). Urban Heat - towards adapted German

cities?

Published in: Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management.

Mahlkow, N., Donner, J. (2016). From Planning to Implementation? The Role of

Climate Change Adaptation Plans to tackle Heat Stress - A Case Study of Berlin,

Germany.

Published in: Journal of Planning Education and Research.

Mahlkow, N., Lakes, T., Donner, J., K¨

oppel, J. (2016). A constellation analysis for

developing exploratory and anticipatory storylines for heat stress analysis- insights

from a case study in Berlin, Germany,

Published in: Ecology and Society.

Donner, J., Sprondel, N., K¨

oppel, J.(2016). Climate adaptation at the local level: A

Bayesian network analysis of local land-use plan implementation.

Submitted to: Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management.

Sprondel, N., Donner, J., Mahlkow, N., K¨

oppel, J. (2016). Urban climate and heat

stress: how likely is the implementation of fa¸cade greening? Analyzed with Bayesian

networks.

Published in: One ecosystem

Sprondel, N., Donner, J., K¨

oppel, J.(2016). Urbaner Hitzestress: Wie wahrscheinlich

ist die Implementierung von Klima-Anpassungsmaßnahmen in der Bebauungspla-

nung?

Published in: Naturschutz und Landschaftsplanung

209

C. List of Publications

C.2. Presentations

Donner, J., K¨

oppel, J. (2013). Urban heat stress: Origins and strategies.

Conference 33rd Annual Conference of the International Association for Impact

Assessment - IAIA13 Impact Assessment: The Next Generation, Calgary, Canada on

May 13-16, 2013.

Donner, J., Mahlkow, N. (27. Mai 2014) Shared knowledge- better planning.

Constellation Analysis as a tool for local climate adaptation decision making, Urban

Regions under Change: towards social-ecological resilience (URC 2014), Hamburg,

Deutschland.

210

Acronyms

◦CCentigrade/Grad Celsius.

ha hectare/Hektar.

KKelvin.

km2square kilometre/Quadratkilometer.

m2square metre/Quadratmeter.

AFOK

Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels/Comprehensive Adaptation

Framework Berlin.

app. approximately.

ARL

Akademie f¨

ur Raumforschung und Landesplanung/Regional Studies and Plan-

ning Academy.

BAF Biotope Area Factor.

BauGB Baugesetzbuch/German Federal Building Code.

BBSR

Bundesinstitut f¨

ur Bau-, Stadt und Raumforschung/Federal Institute for

Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development.

BEK

Berliner Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramm/Berlin Energy and Climate Miti-

gation Program.

BfN Bundesamt f¨

ur Naturschutz/Federal Agency for Nature Conservation.

BGBl Bundesgesetzblatt/Federal Law Gazette.

BIM Berliner Immobilienmanagement/Berlin Real Estate Management.

BImSchG Bundes-Immissionsschutzgesetz/Federal Immission Control Act.

BMBF

Bundesministerium f¨

ur Bildung und Forschung/Federal Ministry of Education

and Research.

BMU See BMUB.

211

Acronyms

BMUB

Bundesministerium f¨

ur Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit/Fed-

eral Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear

Safety.

BMVBS

Bundesministerium f¨

ur Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung/Federal Min-

istry of Transport, Building and Urban Development.

BN Bayesian Network.

CA Constellation Analysis.

cf. conferre/compare.

CO2Carbon Dioxide.

COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

DAS

Deutsche Anpassungsstrategie/German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate

Change.

DFG Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft/German Research Foundation.

DGNB

Deutsche Gesellschaft f¨

ur Nachhaltiges Bauen/German Sustainable Building

Council.

DIN Deutsches Institut f¨

ur Normung/German Institute for Standardization.

DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst/German Meteorological Service.

e.g. exempli gratia/for example.

EA Environmental Assessment.

EC Europ¨

aische Komission/European Commission.

EEA Europ¨

aische Umweltagentur/European Environment Agency.

EIA Umweltvertr¨

aglichkeitspr¨

ufung/Environmental Impact Assessment.

EM-DAT The International Desaster Database.

ERDF

Europ¨

aischer Fonds f¨

ur regionale Entwicklung (EFRE)/European Regional

Development Fund (ERDF.

ESS ¨

Okosystemdienstleistungen/Ecosystem Services.

et al. et alumni/and others.

etc. et cetera/and so on.

212

Acronyms

EU Europ¨

aische Union/European Union.

EWG Bln Berliner Energiewendegesetz/Energy Transition Act of Berlin.

FLL

Forschungsgesellschaft Landschaftsentwicklung und Landschaftsbau/Research

Association for Landscape Development and Landscape Construction.

i.a. inter alia/among others.

i.e. id est/that is.

INSM

Initiative neue soziale Marktwirtschaft/Initiative new social market economy.

IPCC International Panel on Climate Change.

IW Medien

Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft K¨

oln Medien GmbH/Institute for the

German Economy Cologne Media GmbH.

LUGV

Landesamt f¨

ur Umwelt, Gesundheit und Verbraucherschutz/Ministry of Envi-

ronment, Health and Consumer Protection of the Federal State of Brandenburg.

MERIT Management Enterprise Risk Innovation and Teamwork.

NGO Non-Governmental Organisation.

NY New York.

NYC New York City.

PM Particulate Matter.

PNAS

Proceedigs of the National Academy of Sciences ofthe United States of

America.

Pop. Population.

pp. pages.

ppl. People.

resp. respectively.

RM Research Module.

ROG Raumrdnungsgesetz/German Regional Planning Act.

213

Acronyms

SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment.

SenGUV

Senatsverwaltung f¨

ur Gesundheit, Umwelt und Verbraucherschutz/Senate

Department for Health, Environment and Consumer Protection.

SenStadtUm

Senatsverwaltung f¨

ur Stadtentwicklung und Umwelt/Senate Depart-

ment for Urban Development and the Environment.

SIR Salzburger Institut f¨

ur Raumordnung und Wohnen.

StEP Klima Stadtentwicklungsplan Klima/City Climate Development Plan.

TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity.

TU Berlin Technische Universit¨

at Berlin/Berlin Institute of Technology.

UBA Umweltbundesamt/Federal Environment Office.

UCaHS

Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate

change.

UK United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

UN United Nations.

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme.

URC Urban Regions under Change.

USA United States of America.

UVP Umweltvertr¨

aglichkeitspr¨

ufung/Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).

WHG Wasserhaushaltsgesetz/German Federal Water Act.

WTO World Trade Organization.

214

List of Figures

1.1. Structure of the thesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

2.1. Analysis of management and adaptation plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

3.1.

Constellation Analysis: Integration of heat stress measures into urban

development planning and governance according to StEP Klima. . . 60

4.1. The case study area of Berlin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

4.2.

Constellation Analysis of the urban adaptive capacity to heat in Berlin

(barriers and potentials) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

5.1. Bioclimatic Strategy Map (SenStadtUm 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124

5.2.

Bayesian Network displaying the likelihood of success of adaptation

strategies to urban heat in a local land-use plan in a status quo scenario

128

5.3.

Likelihood for climate-adapted local land-use plan creation combined

with the sensitivity analysis to identify the key determinants. Every

element will be analyzed by testing it against a totally positive or

negative influence - minimum/maximum (see Table 5.3). . . . . . . . 133

6.1.

Bayesian network displaying likelihood of success for fa¸cade greening

in the status quo in Berlin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163

6.2.

Bayesian network for the implementation of fa¸cade greening with a

backyard greening program and further assumptions. The altered

elements are displayed in grey color. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

215

216

List of Tables

2.1. Categories covered within the plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

2.2.

Strategies discussed in the climate action plans. In italics indicators

developed by Stone et al. (2012). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

2.3.

Analysis of the management and adaptation plans regarding direct

(white) and indirect indicators (grey) on urban heat. . . . . . . . . . 40

4.1.

Framework of urban climate governance analysis (Bulkeley and Kern

2006; Kern 2008) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

4.2.

Exploratory storylines of adaptive capacity to urban heat in Berlin

2040/2050 ................................ 98

4.3.

Anticipatory storyline “The heat adapted city of Berlin in 2040/2050”,

conflict dimensions targeted shown by the numbers in brackets . . . 102

5.1.

Summary of paragraph 9 of the German Federal Building Code

(BauGB) to implement adaptation measures via local land-use plans.

(German Federal Building Code German law archive 2014; German

Federal Building Code 2013; Battis et al. 2010; Mitschang 2009). . . 122

5.2. Selected plans for the analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

5.3.

Analysis of the impact of each element on the target variable compared

to the status quo scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

6.1.

Example from the questionnaire to gain the probabilities of the element

of “information material”. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

6.2.

Analysis of the influence of single elements on the target variable of

fa¸cade greening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

217