Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
2212-8271 © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universität Berlin.
doi: 10.1016/j.procir.2014.07.164
Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 202 – 207
ScienceDirect
12th Global Conference on Sustainable Manufacturing
Pathways for sustainable technology development - The case of bicycle
mobility in Berlin
Gausemeier, P.a; Seidel, J.*a; Riedelsheimer, T.a; Seliger, G.a
a Institute for Machine Tools and Factory Management, Pascalstr. 8-9, 10587 Berlin, Germany
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 (0)30/314-75835; fax: +49 (0)30 / 314-22759. E-mail address: Seidel@mf.tu-berlin.de
Abstract
Sustainability requires that quality of life and resource consumption are harmonized. The use of sustainable technologies fosters their
harmonization. A scenario based method has been developed for identifying sustainable technology systems on different levels of development
and in different areas of human living. The developed method consists of four elements: the surrounding field scenarios, technology pool,
sustainability assessment and system creation. They can be applied in various paths with different starting points. The two technology induced
paths, emanating from either a system or a system element, enable the transformation of technological potentials into useful applications. The
problem induced path, emanating from future framework conditions of an observed field, allows human needs to be satisfied trough technological
potentials.
The application shown in this paper illustrates the usage of the method's problem induced path in mobility as one area of human living. Based on
three surrounding field scenarios for bicycle mobility in Berlin, technology systems for bicycle design, operation and their repair in self-help
workshops are illustrated.
© 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universität Berlin.
Keywords: Sustainability; future studies; concepts for bicycle mobility
1. Introduction
Sustainability, in terms of its environmental, social and
economic dimension, requires that quality of life and resource
consumption are harmonized [1]. The use of sustainable
technologies fosters their harmonization. A scenario based
method has been developed for identifying sustainable
technology systems. This method is presented in the following,
as well as the system creation and application of the method in
the field of bicycle mobility in the city of Berlin.
1.1. Sustainability challenge
Today over 7 billion people are living on earth using 1.5
times more resources than earth can provide [2]. The challenge
is to avoid the irresponsible path of the emerging countries
increasing the quality of life by an increased resource
consumption and at the same time not radically reducing the
resource consumption of the early industrialized countries
while maintaining an acceptable standard of living. The key is
innovation, influenced by resource-efficient technologies,
intelligent products, new service-systems and their
combination with products as well as the enhancement of the
productivity in conveying the challenge of sustainability [1].
While out of this twofold challenge the method presented can
be applied in both areas, the concrete application of this paper
is focusing on an exemplary chosen early industrialized
country. One of the multiple approaches to harmonizing the
quality of life with a responsible resource consumption
explored within this paper is the approach of selling
functionality instead of tangible products and using innovative
production and learning systems.
1.2. Mobility as an area of human living
To be able to describe the different areas in which the
method can be applied, the definition of “areas of human
living” is used. Area of human living is understood as the
prescientific implicitness [3] and the world in its sociological
interpretation characterized by the individual perception [4].
The diverse areas of human living represent different
overlapping perspectives on the world of human living with
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of Assembly Technology and Factory Management/Technische Universität Berlin.
203
P. Gausemeier et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 202 – 207
many intersections. The world of human living is defined
within the framework of this paper as the individual perception
with respect to the socio-cultural background [5]. Exemplary
areas of human living are “mobility”, “energy” and
“production”, whereas mobility and energy are seen as basis as
well as result of the production in the sense of products.
Mobility is one of the key areas of human living and vital
for modern economies, providing jobs and access to
recreational activities. At the same time mobility at its current
state is creating a huge negative impact on the environment and
human health. According to the World Health Organization
24% of total greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and North
America account to the transportation sector, contributing to
the climate change but also causing health issues due to air
pollution. One way to decrease these emissions is fostering the
use of bicycles. In Europe, Berlin lies above average with a
modal share of cycling of around 13%, but still way beyond
Copenhagen (26%) and Amsterdam (33%) [6]. While this is a
good starting point there still is a high potential for
improvement in health and environmental aspects as well as
creating new green jobs.
While the future development of mobility, even in a rather
zoned area like Berlin, is very volatile, scenarios provide a
chance to handle this uncertainty by describing different
consistent pictures of the future.
The exemplary applications of the method presented in this
paper have been created with the goal to develop bicycle design
specifications according to the different surrounding field
scenarios and to develop a system for bicycle operation and
repair. The aspect of infrastructure has been integrated as an
underlying assumption in form of a fixed framework condition.
On this basis the applications have been elaborated with respect
to how a sustainable bicycle design could look like and how a
bicycle operation and repair system should be shaped to cope
with the specific chances and risks of the provided surrounding
field scenarios.
2. State of the art
To develop the method for finding sustainable pathways
three fields of methods as well as their interception have been
reviewed with regard to the overall goal: future studies,
sustainability assessment and product development. 15
methods out of these areas and their interceptions have been
analyzed regarding their applicability to identify and develop
sustainable technological solutions for different levels of
development. In the area of future studies [7] these are the
delphi method, the trend analysis and the scenario technique.
In the area of sustainability assessment these are the life cycle
assessment (LCA), the product line analysis, the product
carbon footprint, the cost-benefit analysis and the value benefit
analysis. In the area of product development these are the
guideline of the association of German engineers no. 2221
(VDI 2221), the theory of inventive problem solving
(TRIZ/TIPS), the morphological analysis and the Pahl and
Beitz design methodology. In the twofold interception spaces
between these three areas the methods technology scenarios,
eco-design and technology assessment have been reviewed [5].
While none of the existing methods fulfil the stated goal, parts
of these existing methods can be taken and combined. One of
the used methods is the scenario technique. Scenarios in
general regard the description of a possible situation in the
future, based on a complex net of impact factors, as well as the
display of a development which could lead to this situation in
the future with regard to the present. This method is used for
creating surrounding field scenarios, which are defined as the
consideration of scenarios with external and unalterable factors
[8]. This method is combined with the value benefit analysis,
which is used for the analysis of complex alternatives for action
[9] due to its adaptability. Additionally some aspects of the
method of technology scenarios, which already builds onto the
morphological analysis, and the structural approach of TRIZ to
collect and store technologies are used for the development of
the method for finding sustainable technology pathways [5].
3. Theoretical background of the method
The leading question for developing the method is: how can
demands be identified and fulfilled with sustainable systems
and how can technologies be applied in systems to promote the
reasonably demanded sustainability? The first step on the way
to design and implement such technological systems is to
develop conceptual solutions which then can be further
specified. To fulfil the goal of creating such concepts the
developed method consists of four basic elements, which are
illustrated in Fig. 1: surrounding field scenarios, the technology
pool, screening and system creation [5]. The method can be
applied in three different pathways, to answer the raised
research question. While the problem induced path is giving
answers to the first part of the question, the technology induced
path starting from the system and the technology induced path
starting from the system element are giving answers to the
second part. In the framework of this paper the problem
induced path is described in detail and is applied in example
used in chapter 4.
Fig. 1. Overview of the method.
204 P. Gausemeier et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 202 – 207
3.1. Elements
Surrounding field scenarios are classified in the three
selected areas of human living, mobility, energy and
production. They can be applied in three development levels,
low, medium and high, and cover the three sustainability
dimensions economic, ecological and social. The surrounding
field scenarios are the basis to derive functions and the
framework conditions used in the screening.
To collect and secure technological knowledge,
technologies are stored as system elements and systems in the
areas of human living - mobility, energy and production - in a
three level model in the technology pool. A system element is
defined as an artefact in which technologies are realized. A
system is the combination of multiple system elements. At the
same time each system can be considered as a system element
of a system at a higher level. The corresponding technologies
of the system elements are described by their functions. The
function, as a neutral description, is later used for substitution
or new combination of system elements.
System elements are screened within the superior system.
Screening describes the process of a simplified assessment of
the system elements. General and specific criteria are used for
the screening process. General criteria are used scenario
independent, whereas the scenario-specific criteria are derived
from the corresponding surrounding field scenarios and can
differ depending on the surrounding field scenario.
Coming to the system creation, one result of the screening
is a specific amount of problematic system elements within a
system. Problematic system elements can be substituted with
alternative system elements of the technology pool, which
perform the specific function. In the case of a very high number
of problematic system elements or a non-existing system, a
new system can be created. In a morphological analysis the
consistency between all system elements is considered and
combined with a pareto optima evaluation regarding the
sustainability rating of each system element to create
technologicaly consistent and sustainable systems regarding all
three sustainability dimensions.
Three pathways are connecting the four elements of the
method to either start with an existing system or system
element or with a problem for which a sustainable solution is
to be found. As in the framework of this paper an exemplary
application of the problem induced path is presented, this path
is described in detail in the following.
3.2. Problem induced path
The problem induced pathway emanates from the
surrounding field scenarios. Out of a single or even a group of
surrounding field scenarios first areas of application and then
concrete cases of application are identified. On the basis of an
identified field of application, the corresponding functions are
derived. At the same time the surrounding field scenarios are
the source of framework conditions, influencing the specific
criteria of the sustainability screening.
In the next step the technology pool is searched for system
or system elements, which can fulfill the identified functions.
In the screening process the system elements are analyzed and
rated with general and scenario-specific criteria. System
elements with a too low sustainability score are replaced with
system elements of the technology pool, which are suited to
perform the same functions, and screened iteratively until a
sufficient sustainability score is reached. If the score of all
resulting systems is not satisfactory, a new combination is
started. In the new combination the consistency between the
system elements and their evaluation in the sustainability
screening is taken into account to generate pareto-optimal
combinations of system elements, in terms of the three
sustainability dimensions, with a software tool.
As a final point, the new system is stored in the technology
pool. The application of this method is presented in the
following chapter and illustrated with a special case of bicycle
mobility in Berlin.
4. Application of the method
The method provides the possibility to approach the
problem of using sustainable technologies regarding the
specific level of development in a country or region as well as
different areas of human living. In the framework of the
research there has already been generated a variety of
applications. Several technologies, which are developed within
the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 1026 – Sustainable
Manufacturing, have been transferred into useful applications
in the technology induced path. The method has already been
applied to low, medium and high development levels in the area
of human living production. In this area systems for modular
machine tool frames, cacao mass production, the so called
living factory as well as adaptronic components for machine
tool frames have been created. The exemplary application in
case of the system for micro gas turbine production can be
classified as part of the areas of human living energy as well as
production. Moreover the system of autarkic energy supply in
Sierra Leone has been generated as example of a low
development level. Both medium and high development levels
have been covered by a variety of exemplary applications in the
area of mobility with a system for hydrogen mobility,
passenger services in São Paulo as well as the in this paper
presented applications – which are displayed in Fig. 2 under
number 5 and 6. For all applications exist corresponding
surrounding field scenarios. These were either created by the
authors themselves or adopted from literature.
Fig. 2. Overview of the exemplary applications.
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4.1. City oriented surrounding field scenarios for bicycle
mobility in Berlin
The surrounding field scenarios are the basis for the
identification of different systems for bicycle design, operation
and repair. The presented surrounding field scenarios have
been created to represent different futures with corresponding
needs and developments within the city of Berlin regarding
mobility.
On the basis of identified key factors with different
projections, three surrounding field scenarios have been
created. The distinct scenarios, which are illustrated in Fig. 3,
show a very positive future of Berlin, a future with an
overwhelming recession as well as a future characterized by
economic stagnation.
Fig. 3. (a) scenario 1 “Economy on bicycles”; (b) scenario 2 “Wild east”; (c)
scenario 3 “Business as usual”.
Scenario 1, “Economy on bicycles”, describes a very
favourable overall development. The economy is growing and
the bicycle share in the modal split is increasing. Bicycle usage
significantly gains in importance. Bicycles are mainly used for
recreational purposes. New technologies and trends are
adopted and society is coined by a general climate of health
consciousness. Prices for gasoline and public transportation are
rising, while the crime rate, especially for bicycle theft, is
decreasing.
Scenario 2, “Wild east”, on the other hand, describes a
scenario with an overwhelming recession. Still, the bicycle
share in the modal split is growing notably but with a different
reason than in scenario 1. Nevertheless the few public
investments made are mainly focusing on public transportation
and not on the bicycle infrastructure. Bicycles are used as a
cheap mean for transportation for all kinds of goods. The rate
of bicycle thievery is increasing.
Scenario 3, “Business as usual”, is characterized by
economic stagnation. The share of bicycles in the modal split
is decreasing and technological innovations for bicycles play a
minor role. Even though the bicycle infrastructure is slightly
enlarged, bicycles are mainly used for recreational purposes.
Prices for gasoline, as well as the rate of bicycle thievery are
decreasing.
4.2. Systems for bicycle design, operation and repair
To create different systems for bicycle design, operation and
repair general functions of the overall system are identified and
corresponding system elements, which are suited to perform
these functions, are researched. The system elements are rated
with general as well as scenario-specific economic, ecological
and social criteria. The general screening criteria are adapted
with regards to the described framework conditions in the
surrounding field scenarios, leading to a change in weighting
for some existing criteria and adding additional criteria.
4.2.1. Creation of systems for bicycle design
In this example the developed method is applied by using
the problem induced path to find sustainable solutions for the
future mobility with bicycles.
Specific criteria are derived from the surrounding field
scenarios with regard to the described framework conditions in
the surrounding field scenarios, leading to a change in
weighting for some existing criteria and adding additional
criteria, as shown in Fig. 4.
Fig. 4. System for bicycle design: specific and general criteria.
In the next step the neutral functions of the system as well
as corresponding system elements, which are suited to perform
these functions, are identified. For example one system element
fulfilling the function “energy storage” is the lead accumulator
or the lithium-ion accumulator. The complete list of system
elements and corresponding functions is displayed in Fig. 5.
Fig. 5. System for bicycle design: functions and system elements.
The specific criteria are applied to rate these system
elements. Additionally the dependencies of the system
206 P. Gausemeier et al. / Procedia CIRP 26 ( 2015 ) 202 – 207
elements are evaluated with a consistency matrix, which is
exemplarily illustrated in Fig. 6. The consistency between two
system elements is rated on a scale from 1 to 5. 1 describes a
total inconsistency, 5 a high consistency and 3 independence of
two system elements.
For example “no energy recuperation” has a high
consistency with “no energy storage”. But if energy is
recuperated, there is a need for some kind of energy storage, so
there is a total inconsistency between “kinetic energy
recuperation system” and “no energy storage”.
Fig. 6. System for bicycle design: Consistency matrix.
4.2.2. Created systems for bicycle design
In the first application, consistent systems for bicycle design
are developed within the problem induced path. Each bicycle
is expanded by functions corresponding to each surrounding
field scenario.
The importance of each criterion differs with the
surrounding field scenario. For example the wealth in the first
scenario “Economy on bicycles” implies higher weighted
ecological criteria in comparison to the economic criterion
“Total Cost of Ownership”. In the second scenario “Wild east”
the economic criteria and in the third scenario “Business as
usual” individuality are weighted comparatively high.
Taking into account the consistency evaluation of all system
elements and the result from the sustainability screening, pareto
optimal system element combinations can be found for each
consistency level. The shown results of the system creation
describe a balance between consistency and sustainability score
for the surrounding field for each scenario. They are as well
close to the theoretical maximum for consistency as well as for
sustainability. In Fig. 7 the three results of the system creation
for bicycle design are illustrated.
Fig. 7. (a) system 1; (b) system 2; (c) system 3.
To meet the requirements of the first scenario, the resulting
bicycle is realized with integral construction and lighter weight.
There is an extra seat in front to support increased mobility,
recreational use and individualization. A lithium-ion
accumulator integrated in the steel frame enhances the mobility
of the user especially in case of an additional passenger in the
front seat. Energy recuperation with a shock absorber as well
as energy generation with solar cells improve energy efficiency
and the range of bicycles. Moreover many high tech solutions
including an electric motor and wireless communication
devices are combined in system 1.
On the other hand the design in system 2 is simpler and
focusing on the transportation of goods, since bicycles replace
some of the transportation tasks formerly done with other
vehicles, due to the lower cost of bicycles. The design number
3 is rather simple as well and characterized by the use for
recreation. The easy detachable trailer, for example, can be
used to transport sporting goods.
4.2.3. Systems for bicycle operation and repair
This application also follows the problem induced path by
identifying sustainable solutions for the operation and repair of
bicycles and thereby integrating technologies developed within
the CRC 1026 into a sustainable system. There is a need for
operation and repair of bicycles in all 3 surrounding field
scenarios. The configuration of the operation and repair system
has to be adapted to the framework conditions. Some of the
integrated technologies are described shortly in the following
section.
In general, a “learnstrument” is an artefact which
automatically demonstrates its functionality to the user [10].
The self-help workplace learnstrument combines simple
assembly technologies and tools with multimedia or internet
based training material. Non-commercial workshops provide
material infrastructure while instructional material is
developed and distributed by a community of interested
stakeholders.
The industrial workplace learnstrument combines image-
based tracking systems and professional work systems with
expert software for task classification and assessment. This
provides an effective and efficient means for automated
generation of training and feedback material [11].
The third technology consists of sensors for condition
monitoring of bicycles to automatically detect critical
parameters. Such sensors have the ability to communicate e.g.
via Bluetooth and other telecommunication technologies with
other sensors. They can be integrated into a maintenance, repair
and overhaul system.
Fig. 8 illustrates the created system “Do it yourself service”
for the described surrounding field scenarios 2 and 3, “Wild
east” and “Business as usual”. In this system a widespread bike
rental system is used, in which sensors provide the possibility
to locate and reserve a bicycle near the user. At the same time
the sensors monitor the condition of the bicycle. If the bicycle
needs to be repaired (corrective or preventive), the user of the
bicycle is informed about this task and can fix the bicycle
herself in a nearby “do it yourself workshop”.
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Fig. 8. Created system “Do it yourself service” for the surrounding field
scenarios 2 and 3, “Wild east” and “Business as usual”.
At the workshop the user is guided through the specific
repair tasks by a system to use the necessary tools which are
provided. At the same time the user is provided with all the
necessary information to fulfill even advanced tasks. This is
possible since this information is provided by an interactive
learning system.
As an incentive to fulfill these repair tasks the user receives
free time to use bikes out of the rental pool without charge. The
free time added to the balance of the users bike rental account
depends on the type of repair task fulfilled.
5. Conclusion and outlook
The generated systems for bicycle mobility in Berlin show
the high dependency of future development of technology as
well as operating systems of different factors which are taken
into account within the specific criteria. These criteria are
directly influenced by the surrounding field scenarios. The
developed and presented method represents a possibility to
integrate this aspect as well as different development levels.
While there are some similarities between the created
systems it is clearly demonstrated that for some developments
of the surrounding field rather different technologies for
mobility are required to achieve sustainable solutions.
In a next step additional scenarios could be created for the
bicycle mobility in other countries. A high impact could
especially be achieved in emerging countries with a high
potential for a broader use of these sustainable means of
transportation. One specific country of interest could be
Vietnam in South-East-Asia.
As illustrated in Fig. 2 in the mobility area of human living
on a low development level and in the energy area of human
living on a medium development level, the method has not been
applied yet. In addition to the at least partially tackled areas of
human living production, mobility and energy the application
of the method could also be broadened to other areas like
housing and health.
Regarding the method itself there is still potential for further
development. To allow the realization of breakthrough
innovations, for which not even the combination of functions
is yet known, prior to the already implemented system element
combination a combination of functions itself could be carried
out. This would allow adding new features to an already known
system as for example experienced with the transformation
from the regular cellphone to so called smartphones like the
iPhone which includes multiple additional functions. While the
sustainability screening is clearly differentiated from an in
detail sustainability evaluation, the quality of information and
uncertainty regarding the screening could be taken into account
to make this factor visible and put further emphasis on
improving it [5]. Finally to speed up the process of transferring
and/or adapting systems to different surrounding fields a
country classification regarding the different areas of human
living could be helpful.
The method can be a useful tool not only for researchers
depicting sustainable pathways of technology development, but
also for industry to exploit new fields of application for long
term steering of their product strategy and their research and
development activities, for governmental institutions to create
the right environment for sustainable innovation by policy
changes as well as for individuals to find suitable applications
for technology innovations.
Acknowledgements
We extend our sincere thanks to all who contributed to
preparing this paper. Especially, we thank the German
Research Foundation for the funding of the Collaborative
Research Centre 1026 “Sustainable Manufacturing – shaping
global value creation” (SFB 1026/1 2012). The responsibility
for the content of this publication lies with the authors.
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