Modeling urban evapotranspiration using remote sensing, flux
footprints, and artificial intelligence
Stenka Vulova
a,1,
⁎,FredMeier
b,2
, Alby Duarte Rocha
a,1
, Justus Quanz
b,c,2
,
Hamideh Nouri
d,3
, Birgit Kleinschmit
a,1
a
Geoinformation in Environmental Planning Lab, Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany
b
Chair of Climatology, Institute of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
c
Department of Environmentally Sound Urban and Infrastructure Planning, HafenCity University Hamburg, 20457 Hamburg, Germany
d
Division of Agronomy, University of Göttingen, 37075 Göttingen, Germany
HIGHLIGHTS
•Evapotranspiration (ET) is key to urban
greening and climate change mitigation.
•Urban ET is challenging to model, with
few available approaches so far.
•Urban ET measured by eddy covariance
is modeled using artificial intelligence.
•Remote sensing data and footprint
modeling predict the land cover
influencing ET.
•Incorporating remote sensing data en-
hances the predictive accuracy of
urban ET.
GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
abstractarticle info
Article history:
Received 2 December 2020
Received in revised form 17 April 2021
Accepted 17 April 2021
Available online 28 April 2021
Editor: Jay Gan
Keywords:
Urban water
Eddy covariance
Latent heat flux
1D convolutional neural networks (CNN)
Deep learning
Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2
As climate change progresses, urban areas are increasingly affected by water scarcity and the urban heat island
effect. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a crucial component of urban greening initiatives of cities worldwide aimed
at mitigating these issues.However, ET estimation methods in urban areas haveso far been limited. An expanding
number of flux towers in urbanenvironments provide the opportunity to directly measure ET by the eddy covari-
ance method. In this study, we present a novel approach to model urban ET by combining flux footprint model-
ing, remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) data, and deep learning and machine learning
techniques. This approach facilitates spatio-temporal extrapolation of ET at a half-hourly resolution; we tested
this approach with a two-year dataset from two flux towers in Berlin, Germany. The benefitofintegratingremote
sensing and GIS data into models was investigated by testing four predictor scenarios. Two algorithms (1D
convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and random forest (RF)) were compared. The best-performing models
were then used to model ET values for the year 2019. The inclusion of GIS data extracted using flux footprints en-
hanced the predictive accuracy of models, particularly when meteorological data was more limited. The best-
performing scenario (meteorological and GIS data) showed an RMSE of 0.0239 mm/h and R
2
of 0.840 with RF
and an RMSE of 0.0250 mm/h and a R
2
of 0.824 with 1D CNN for the more vegetated site. The 2019 ET sum
was substantially higher at the site surrounded by more urban greenery (366 mm) than at the inner-city site
Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
⁎Corresponding author at: Fachgebiet Geoinformation in der Umweltplanung, Sekretariat EB5, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 145, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
E-mail addresses: stenka.vulova@tu-berlin.de (S. Vulova), fred.meier@tu-berlin.de (F. Meier), a.duarterocha@tu-berlin.de (A.D. Rocha), justus.quanz@hcu-hamburg.de (J. Quanz),
hamideh.nouri@uni-goettingen.de (H. Nouri), birgit.kleinschmit@tu-berlin.de (B. Kleinschmit).
1
Fachgebiet Geoinformation in der Umweltplanung, Sekretariat EB5, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 145, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
2
Fachgebiet Klimatologie, Institut für Ökologie, Technische Universität Berlin, Rothenburgstraße 12, D-12165 Berlin, Germany.
3
Department für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften, Abteilung Pflanzenbau, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen Von-Siebold-Straße 8, 37075 Göttingen, Germany.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147293
0048-9697/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Science of the Total Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/scitotenv
(223 mm),demonstrating the substantial influence of vegetation on the urban water cycle. The proposed method
is highly promising for modeling ET in a heterogeneous urban environment and can support climate change mit-
igation initiatives of urban areas worldwide.
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
1. Introduction
Meeting the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 11 of
“sustainable cities and communities”is critical as urban residents
worldwide are increasingly affected by climate change and water scar-
city (Liu and Jensen, 2018). By 2050, nearly 70% of the world population
is projected to be urban (United Nations, 2019). The paradigm of inte-
grating green infrastructure to support sustainable urban water man-
agement is growing in importance and is known by various terms
such as water sensitive urban design (WSUD), sponge city, and low im-
pact development (LID) (Liu and Jensen, 2018;Nguyen et al., 2019).
These city policies are part of a “co-benefits approach”of climate change
mitigation, which simultaneously addresses urban flooding and the
urban heat island (He et al., 2019). The ecosystem services provided
by green infrastructure, which include the enhancement of flood
water infiltration, air temperature modification, energy saving, air qual-
ity, biodiversity, and numerous socio-economic benefits, are central to
this approach (He et al., 2019;Nguyen et al., 2019;Nouri et al., 2013).
Berlin, Germany, a city internationally recognized for its sustainable
water supply system, is one example of a city preparing for climate
change impacts by adopting the sponge city concept (Liu and Jensen,
2018). Taking advantage of the cooling effect of evapotranspiration
(ET) is a key principle of this concept (Gunawardena et al., 2017).
Adding more green infrastructure such as green roofs to the city can
provide an evaporative cooling effect during the increasingly common
heat waves expected in northern Europe (Liu and Jensen, 2018;Meehl
and Tebaldi, 2004;Vulova and Kleinschmit, 2019). Therefore, an en-
hanced understanding of ET in urban areas is essential to implementing
climate change mitigation and urban greening schemes (Gunawardena
et al., 2017).
Despite its significance, ET estimation in urban environments re-
mains a nascent area of research, as most ET studies have focused on
natural or agricultural areas (Nouri et al., 2013;Saher et al., 2021). The
urban environment is spatio-temporally heterogeneous, with a mixture
of land cover, microclimate, and soil and water characteristics (Nouri
et al., 2013). Point-based ET measurements such as lysimeters and sap
flow may not be representative or practical in an urban setting (Litvak
et al., 2017).
Surface energy balance (SEB) models use remotely sensed imagery
and auxiliary meteorological data as input and estimate ET as the resid-
ual of the energy balance equation (Norman et al., 1995;Saher et al.,
2021;Su, 2002). Some commonly applied SEB models include the
two-source energy balance (TSEB) model (Norman et al., 1995), Surface
Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) (Bastiaanssen et al., 1998),
and Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) (Su, 2002). Jiang and Weng
(2017) applied TSEB to model daily ET in an urban area in the United
States; however, ET was not validated with field data in this study.
Cong et al. (2017) compared SEBS to a water balance method to esti-
mate ET in Beijing, China, finding that SEBS severely underestimated an-
nual ET. SEB models are not suitable for characterizing urban ET without
major adjustments, as they omit anthropogenic heat and diurnal advec-
tion effects, assume homogeneous vegetation, operate on a regional
scale, and ignore atmospheric variability in urban areas (Saher et al.,
2021).
Physically based hydrological models simulate hydrological pro-
cesses, including soil evaporation, transpiration, interception, subsur-
face flow, and channel flow, using representations of partial
differential equations (Dwarakish et al., 2015). Recent hydrological
models incorporate remote sensing data such as the Normalized Differ-
ence Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for leaf area index (LAI), bio-
mass, and urban impervious fraction (Boegh et al., 2009, 2004).
Physically based hydrological models are challenging to implement as
they necessitate the estimation of numerous parameters, which often
require expert knowledge or field measurements to be determined
(Boegh et al., 2009;Dwarakish et al., 2015).
Eddy covariance (EC), a micrometeorological technique which mea-
sures turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, momentum and other
gases e.g. CO
2
, is one of the few methods which can directly measure ET
in a heterogeneous urban environment (Nouri et al., 2013). However,
EC measurements have mostly been used in agricultural, forestryandri-
parian studies so far (Holl et al., 2020;Järvi et al., 2012;Menzer et al.,
2015;Moffat et al., 2007;Papale and Valentini, 2003). Limited EC appli-
cations over urban areas were predominantly used to assess exchanges
of energy, greenhouse gasesandair pollutants rather than LE or ET (Holl
et al., 2020;Järvi et al., 2012;Kordowski and Kuttler, 2010;Menzer
et al., 2015;Moffat et al., 2007;Papale and Valentini, 2003). Moreover,
EC measurements are frequently affected by instrument failures, low
turbulent atmospheric conditions, and system “spikes”,leadingtodata
gaps accounting for 20–60% of data on an annual basis (Moffat et al.,
2007). Gap-filling or modeling is therefore indispensable in order to ob-
tain daily, monthly, and annual sums of ET, which can be used to better
characterize the urban water cycle.
Current modeling and gap-filling approaches are insufficient in a
heterogeneous urban environment due to the changing source area of
EC measurements and urban heterogeneity (Kotthaus and Grimmond,
2014;Menzer et al., 2015). Previous studies modeling CO
2
have ad-
dressed the issue of urban heterogeneity by training models indepen-
dently on different wind direction sectors (Menzer et al., 2015)or
adding wind direction as a binary predictor (Järvi et al., 2012). However,
these approaches do not integrate the influence of wind speed and at-
mospheric stability in controlling footprint area (Kljun et al., 2002;
Kotthaus and Grimmond, 2014). Footprint models, on the other hand,
can estimate the likely surface area affecting turbulent flux measure-
ments at a given point in time (Kotthaus and Grimmond, 2014). Com-
bining footprint modeling with a geospatial database is highly
beneficial for the interpretation of urban fluxes (Christen et al., 2011;
Kotthaus and Grimmond, 2014). However, footprint modeling has not
thus far been combined with machine learning (ML) regression in
order to model urban ET.
Although studies modeling EC fluxes at a half-hourly scale have ap-
plied ML approaches to gap-fill the datasets, the application of ML
models in new locations has not thus far been assessed. Extracting re-
motely sensed data by footprint modeling opens up the opportunity
to spatially upscale ET to the city scale at a high resolution in the future
(Crawford and Christen, 2015). We therefore test the potential to model
ET in areas where no flux tower is available by training in one location
and testing in another. We model urban ET using 1D convolutional neu-
ral networks (1D CNNs) and random forest (RF), which have never and
rarely been applied to model EC fluxes so far, respectively (Kim et al.,
2020).
In this study, we evaluated an approach combining flux footprint
modeling, deep learning (DL) and ML, and GIS and remotely sensed
data in order to model ET at a half-hourly resolution in a heterogeneous
urban environment. We assessed the hypothesis that integrating re-
mote sensing and GIS data by footprint modeling, rather than relying
solely on meteorological data, can better characterize urban ET. We
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
2
tested this methodology in Berlin, Germany with a two-year dataset
from two flux towers. Our key objectives were to: 1) assess the benefit
of remote sensing and GIS data extracted by flux footprints to modeling
urban ET; 2) identify the main drivers of ET in an urban environment;
3) compare the performance of two ML and DL algorithms (1D CNN
and RF) and four predictor scenarios in modeling urban ET; 4) compare
model performance at two urban flux tower sites with differing land
cover and evaluate to what extent models can be applied in new loca-
tions; and 5) derive monthly and annual ET estimates.
2. Data
A set of temporally dynamic and static data extracted from satellite
imagery, flux towers, and meteorological stations was used to predict
ET in an urban landscape. An overview of the 23 predictors used to
model ET at a half-hourly resolution is given in Table 1.
2.1. Study area
The study is based in Berlin, the largestcity in Germany with 3.7 mil-
lion inhabitants distributed across 891 km
2
in 2018 (Statistical Office of
Berlin-Brandenburg, 2019)(Fig. 1). Berlin is located in eastern Germany
(52.52°N, 13.40°E) and has a humid warm temperate climate (Kottek
et al., 2006).
The two flux towers are part of the Urban Climate Observatory
(UCO) Berlin maintained by the Chair of Climatology at the Technische
Universität Berlin (TUB) (Scherer et al., 2019). The Rothenburgstraße
(ROTH) flux tower is located in an urban research garden belonging to
the TUB in the southwest of the city (Fig. 1). The TUB Campus
Charlottenburg (TUCC) flux tower is located on top of the main building
of the TUB inthe center of the city (Fig. 1). The measurement heights are
39.75 m and 56 m for the ROTH and TUCC towers, respectively. The
tower at ROTH is situated in a more vegetated area, with 50.6% vegeta-
tion, 26.3% impervious surface, 22.8% buildings, and 0.3% water bodies
within a 1000-m radius. The tower at TUCC, in contrast, is characterized
by 32.6% vegetation, 35.5% impervious surface, 27.2% buildings, and 4.7%
water bodies within a 1000-m radius.
2.2. Meteorological data
Hourly meteorological data were acquired from the German Meteo-
rological Service (DWD) Climate Data Center (DWD, 2020a) and used as
ET predictors (Table 1). Solar radiation data were acquired from the sta-
tion Potsdam (19.2 km and 23.2 km distance from ROTH and TUCC, re-
spectively) for both towers. All other DWD data were acquired at
stations Berlin-Dahlem (1.04 km distance from ROTH) and Berlin-
Tegel (5.94 km distance from TUCC) for ROTH and TUCC, respectively.
Linear interpolation was applied for short (<4 h) gaps. Lastly, all DWD
data were linearly interpolated to a half-hourly resolution.
Reference ET (ETo) was calculated with the hourly ASCE “Standard-
ized Reference Evapotranspiration Equation”for short crops (Allen
et al., 2005) using the “hourlyET”function of the R package “water”
(Olmedo et al., 2016). For further details on the parametrization of
ETo and saturated vapor pressure (SVP), refer to the Appendix.
Fig. 2a–d shows daily air temperature, shortwave downward radia-
tion, precipitation, and NDVI throughout the study period. Fig. 2e
shows the temporal distribution of half-hourly ET after quality control
(in units of mm/h) measured at the two flux towers during the study
period. Both towers follow a typical seasonal pattern for ET, with the
highest maximum values in summertime and the lowest maximum
Table 1
An overview of the predictor variables used to model evapotranspiration (ET) at half-hourly resolution; details of the source of the data, preprocessing method, and their spatial and tem-
poral resolutions are listed. In the “Temporal resolution”column, “static”refers to predictors which remain constant over time (such as building height). In the “Spatial resolution”column,
P refers to point data (derived from a single point in space), while F refers to remote sensing and GIS data extracted with flux footprints. All meteorological data (including ETo) were lin-
early interpolated to a half-hourly resolution.
Predictor (acronym) Unit Data source Preprocessing method Spatial
resolution
(m)
Temporal
resolution
GIS predictors
Building height (BH) m Berlin Digital Environmental Atlas (2014) –1 (F) Static
Impervious surface fraction (ISF) % Urban Atlas 2012 (LULC) Vulova et al. (2020); rasterization with 1-m
resolution
1 (F) Static
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI)
–Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS)
surface reflectance product, NASA
Claverie et al. (2018); cloud-masking; pixel-wise
linear interpolation to daily scale
30 (F) Daily
Vegetation fraction % Berlin Digital Environmental Atlas (2014) VH Conversion of VH higher than 0.01 m to 1 and all
other pixels to 0
1 (F) Static
Vegetation height (VH) m Berlin Digital Environmental Atlas (2014) –1 (F) Static
Water fraction % Urban Atlas 2012 (LULC) Rasterization of water bodies with 1-m resolution
(1 = present, 0 = absent)
1 (F) Static
Meteorological predictors
Air pressure hPa DWD –P Hourly
Air temperature °C DWD –P Hourly
Diffuse solar radiation W/m
2
DWD Unit conversion from J/cm
2
to W/m
2
P Hourly
Dry bulb temperature °C DWD –P Hourly
Longwave downward radiation W/m
2
DWD Unit conversion from J/cm
2
to W/m
2
P Hourly
Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) mm/h DWD Allen et al. (2005) equation for short crops;
“water”R package (Olmedo et al., 2016)
P Hourly
Relative humidity (RH) % DWD –P Hourly
Saturated vapor pressure (SVP) hPa DWD Allen et al. (1998);“MeTo”R package (Dettmann
and Grimma, 2019)
P Hourly
Shortwave downward radiation W/m
2
DWD Unit conversion from J/cm
2
to W/m
2
P Hourly
Soil temperature at 5 cm, 10 cm, 20 cm,
50 cm, and 100 cm depth
°C DWD –P Hourly
Solar zenith angle ° DWD –P Hourly
Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) hPa DWD –P Hourly
Wind speed m/s DWD –P Hourly
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
3
values in wintertime. As expected, the maximum ET values at the more
vegetated site (ROTH, green dots) are nearly double the values at the
less vegetated site (TUCC, orange dots) in the growing season.
2.3. Flux measurements, filtering and data processing
The EC system at both sites combines an open-path gas analyzer and
a three-dimensional sonic anemometer-thermometer (IRGASON,
Campbell Scientific) for simultaneous measurements of water vapor
density as well as orthogonal wind components. The EC software pack-
age EddyPro (Version 6.2.1) was used to quality-control EC raw data
and to calculate ET from 20-Hz time series over 30-min intervals.
Data quality control and processing with EddyPro included elimina-
tion of spikes, filtering values based on physical thresholds, and statisti-
cal screening based on the method developed by Vickers and Mahrt
(1997). We applied double coordinate rotation, correction of sonic tem-
perature for humidity, high- and low-frequency spectral corrections
(Moncrieff et al., 1997), and corrections for air density (Webb et al.,
1980). Furthermore, instrument diagnostic flags not equal zero and
data with signal strength <0.8 were withheld. EddyPro output data at
30-min resolution with quality flag 2 were excluded (Foken, 2016)as
well as data during and 4 h after precipitation events based upon
DWD precipitation data. Additionally, data from wind directions 17°–
35° at TUCC and 54°–72° at ROTH were excluded because this sector is
influenced by flow distortion due to the instrument and mounting
setup (Foken, 2016). De-spiking based on standard deviation (SD) was
applied, with LE data five times greater than the SD removed as spikes
using the R package “FREddyPro”(Xenakis, 2016). A simple threshold
was applied, excluding data where LE was below −100 W/m
2
and
above 500 W/m
2
. Furthermore, negative values of ET were removed as
they represent condensation.
Based on overlapping observations from the two towers, the study
period was restricted to two years (1 June 2018 to 1 June 2020). A
total of 16,707 and 16,013 (48% and 46% of the study period) high qual-
ity half-hourly ET observations (in mm/h) then remained available for
modeling at ROTH and TUCC, respectively.
2.4. Turbulent flux footprints
Modeling urban ET measured by flux towers is challenging due to
the dynamic influence of heterogeneous land cover. Turbulent fluxes
measured by an EC measurement system do not represent the energy
exchange of a fixed radius around the site, but rather that of aconstantly
changing upwind area which contains the sources and sinks contribut-
ing to measurements (Foken, 2016;Kljun et al., 2002;Schmid and Oke,
1990). This area is referred to as a footprint or turbulent flux source area
and can be estimated by footprint models (Crawford and Christen,
2015;Kljun et al., 2002). In this study, footprint areas were estimated
with the Kormann and Meixner (2001) analytical footprint model
using the R package “FREddyPro”(Xenakis, 2016). Further details on
the parametrization of footprint models are given in the Appendix.
The resulting footprint grids were reduced to the 90% probability area.
Weighted averages of the surface cover were extracted by multiplying
these grids with the raster layers and summing the resulting pixel
values on a half-hourly basis (Fig. 3).
2.5. Remote sensing and GIS data
Six remote sensingand GIS datasets were used as predictors of urban
ET (Table 1;Fig. 3), which are referred to as “GIS predictors.”
The Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) surface reflectance
product provided by NASA was used to compute NDVI, an indicator of
vegetation density and vitality (Claverie et al., 2018;Tucker, 1979).
This open-source product is well-suited for vegetation phenology mon-
itoring in urban areas with a revisit period of 3–5 days and a 30-meter
resolution (Claverie et al., 2018). The preprocessing and interpolation
to daily resolution of HLS data are further described in the Appendix.
Vegetation height (VH) and building height (BH) were provided by
the Berlin Digital Environmental Atlas at 1-meter resolution (Berlin
Senate Department for Urban Development and Housing, 2014). Vege-
tation fraction was derived by converting VH pixels higher than
0.01 m to a value of 1 and all other pixels to 0. Land use and land
cover (LULC) classes data were provided by Urban Atlas 2012
(European Environment Agency, 2018). Water fraction was derived by
assigning the LULC classes “Water”and “Wetlands”to a value of 1 and
Fig. 1. Locations of the two flux towers in Berlin, Germany. A 1-km radius showing vegetation height (VH) and building height (BH) around the towers isdepicted for a) TUCC and b) ROTH.
c) The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat 8 is shown for 24 June 2019 in Berlin and its surrounding area. The datum is WGS-84 and the projection is UTM.
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
4
all other classes to 0. Impervious surface fraction (ISF) was also derived
from the Urban Atlas LULC dataset, as described in Vulova et al. (2020).
3. Methods
3.1. ET modeling
3.1.1. Predictor scenarios
To explore the contribution of different data sources (remote sens-
ing and GIS, meteorological, and ETo) to estimating ET, four predictor
scenarios were tested in models: (1) only ETo as a predictor (one pre-
dictor; “ETo”), (2) ETo and GIS predictors (seven predictors; “ETo and
GIS”), (3) only meteorological predictors (16 predictors; “Met”), and
(4) meteorological and GIS predictors (22 predictors; “Met and GIS”).
GIS predictors refer to the six remote sensing and GIS datasets (BH,
VH, ISF, NDVI, vegetation fraction, and water fraction) (Table 1;Fig. 3).
Meteorological predictors refer to all predictors except GIS predictors
and ETo (Table 1). In total, 32 models were run, with two towers, two
temporal training/testing splits, four predictor scenarios, and two artifi-
cial intelligence (AI) algorithms.
Fig. 3 presents an overview of the entire methodological approach.
3.1.2. ML and DL algorithms
ML and DL algorithms, which broadly fall under the umbrella of AI,
have emerged as particularly accurate methods for gap-filling urban
fluxes (Järvi et al., 2012;Menzer et al., 2015;Schmidt et al., 2008). ML
and DL algorithms were selected to model urban ET as they can gener-
alize from sample data without relying on a process-based formulation
(Kuhn and Johnson, 2013;Menzer et al., 2015;Schmidt et al., 2008).
Furthermore, ML and DL algorithms allow for the integration of a large
set of predictor variables and the estimation of variable importance
(Kuhn and Johnson, 2013). Here, we tested two supervised regression
DL and ML algorithms: a 1D CNN and RF.
Fig. 2. Meteorological and vegetation greenness conditions during the study period (1 June 2018 to 1 June 2020): (a) daily averaged air temperature (T
air
), (b) daily averaged shortwave
downward radiation (SW), (c) daily precipitation (P), (d) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and (e) half-hourly ET after quality control measured at the two flux towers
during the study period, with ROTH depicted in green and TUCC in orange. NDVI data were extracted from flux footprint modeling (at a half-hourly temporal scale) at the ROTH flux
tower and averaged to a daily scale. T
air
and P were derived from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) station Berlin-Dahlem (FU) and SW from the DWD station Potsdam. The
study period was drier and warmer than the long-term (1981–2010) mean, with an average annual P of 448 mm (long-term mean: 591 mm) and an average T
air
of 11.3 °C (long-term
mean: 9.5 °C) (DWD, 2020a, 2020b).
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
5
3.1.2.1. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN). CNNs are a type of DL
model defined by convolutional layers, which learn local patterns auto-
matically (Chollet and Allaire, 2018). Whereas in computer vision 3D
convolutions are used to extract local spatial features, 1D convolutions
essentially treat time as a spatial dimension, extracting local patterns
in a sequence and recognizing them at a different temporal position
(Chollet and Allaire, 2018). This capacity makes them highly relevant
to sequence processing, with recent applications in hydrological model-
ing (Chollet and Allaire, 2018;Ferreira and da Cunha, 2020;Haidar and
Verma, 2018).
The CNN architecture used in this study consisted of three
convolutional layers, with each of the first two convolutional layers im-
mediately followed by max pooling layers. The third convolutional layer
was followed by a flatten layer in order to convert the 3D outputs to 2D
outputs (Chollet and Allaire, 2018). The final (seventh) layer is a 1-
dimensional dense layer with linear activation, generating the ET pre-
diction. CNN architecture was set up accordingto the recommendations
of Chollet and Allaire (2018) and trial and error experimentation. In
convolutional layers, padding was set to “same”,stridewassetto1,
and the activation function was set to rectified linear unit (ReLU). To
train the models, the Adam algorithm (Kingma and Ba, 2015) and the
mean squared error (MSE) loss function were used. The learning rate
was set to the default of 0.001. To limit overfitting, early stopping was
used to define the number of training epochs, with a maximum of 100
training epochs and a patience of 10 epochs. In-depth information on
CNNs and their implementation using the R interface to Keras can be
Fig. 3. Flowchart showing an overview of the study, including the data used for ET modeling, footprint modeling, and ML and DL modeling. Abbreviations can be found in the text. The
probability grids diagram is adapted from Christen (2016).
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
6
found in Chollet and Allaire (2018). A detailed description of
hyperparameter tuning for CNNs is given in the Appendix.
3.1.2.2. Random forest (RF). RF was used to model urban ET due to its ca-
pacity to handle highly nonlinear relationships, avoid overfitting, and
produce a stable prediction (Kim et al., 2020;Kuhn and Johnson,
2013). RF is an ensemble decision tree-based algorithm proposed by
Breiman (2001). Further details on RF and its implementation are
given in Kuhn and Johnson (2013). Hyperparameter tuning for RF is de-
scribed in the Appendix.
3.1.2.3. Variable importance. Relative variable importance scores (scaled
from 0 to 100%) were extracted from models trained with the “Met and
GIS”predictor scenario. Variable importance was extracted by the per-
mutation approach describedby Breiman (2001) using the“vip”R pack-
age for CNNs (Greenwell et al., 2020) and the “caret”R package for RF
(Kuhn, 2008).
3.2. ET performance metrics
To evaluate the temporal and spatial extrapolation capability of
models (Roberts et al., 2017), we split the data into training and testing
sets. For the temporal extrapolation capability, we used 2018 and 2020
data for training and 2019 data for testing and vice versa. For ROTH,
8617 and 8090 observations were available for 2018/2020 and 2019, re-
spectively. For TUCC, 8055 and 7958 observations were available for
2018/2020 and 2019, respectively. For the spatial extrapolation capabil-
ity, we tested two scenarios: (1) training and testing on the same tower
and (2) training on one tower and testing on the other.
The model performance was evaluated using the testing set, and the
prediction accuracy was assessed using five metrics: root mean square
error (RMSE), percent bias (pbias), coefficient of determination (R
2
),
mean absolute error (MAE), and normalized root mean square error
(NRMSE). The value used to normalize NRMSE was the difference be-
tween the maximum and minimum observed values.
3.3. Total ET
Monthly and annual ET sums for the year 2019 were calculated by
two methods: (1) by gap-filling using the ML and DL algorithms and
(2) by exclusively modeling ET using the ML and DL algorithms without
using the high-quality ET data for 2019. All models used for ET sums
were trained in 2018 and 2020 and on the same tower for which data
were predicted. In all cases, the “Met and GIS”predictor scenario was
applied first, as it was found to be the best-performing scenario. In
some cases, flux footprints could not be modeled due to unsuitable at-
mospheric conditions for footprint modeling and missing EC input
data. Thus, any remaining gaps were filled using models trained with
the “Met”predictor scenario. For ROTH, 9430 half-hours in 2019 were
missing and thus gap-filled (53.8% of the data). For TUCC, 9562 half-
hours in 2019 were missing and thus gap-filled (54.6% of the data).
Since ET was modeled at a half-hourly scale but is given in units of
mm/h, half-hourly values were averaged to an hourly scale before sum-
ming ET.
Unless stated otherwise, all modeling and analysis were completed
using R version 3.6.3 (2020-02-29) and RStudio (version 1.3.1073) (R
Core Team, 2020). CNNs were implemented through an R interface
using the Keras DL framework and the TensorFlow backend (Allaire
and Chollet, 2020;Chollet and Allaire, 2018). CNN models were trained
on a local workstation using the CUDA environment (GPU-based pro-
cessing) and a NVIDIA graphics card (Quadro P1000). The “caret”R
package was used as a wrapper package for the RF algorithm implemen-
tation in R (Kuhn, 2008). For RF model tuning and training, parallel pro-
cessing was performed on 14 cores using the R package “doSNOW”
(Microsoft Corporation and Weston, 2019).
4. Results
4.1. ET modeling
When modeling both towers independently, the scenarios including
GIS predictors show the highest prediction accuracy. Table 2 presents
the testing performance metrics averaged across the two temporal
training and testing splits, providing an overall performance estimate
of models. The “Met and GIS”scenario shows the lowest RMSE,
NRMSE, and MAE and highest R
2
in the majority of cases. With RF, the
“Met and GIS”scenario shows the highest accuracy overall, with an
RMSE of 0.0239 mm (R
2
= 0.840 and MAE = 0.0154 mm) for ROTH
and 0.0170 mm (R
2
= 0.544 and MAE = 0.0115 mm) for TUCC
(Table 2). The “Met and GIS”scenario has a similar performance with
CNN, with an RMSE of 0.0250 mm (R
2
= 0.824 and MAE =
0.0160 mm) for ROTH and 0.0178 mm (R
2
= 0.502 and MAE =
0.0119 mm) for TUCC.
The increase in performance is greater when adding GIS predictors
to a simple “ETo”scenario than a scenario with 16 meteorological pre-
dictors. Comparing the simple predictor scenarios of “ETo”and “ETo
and GIS”,“ETo and GIS”achieves a higher performance (lower RMSE,
NRMSE, and MAE and higher R
2
) for both towers (Table 2). The “Met
and GIS”scenario shows increased prediction accuracy than the “Met”
scenario (Table 2). For instance, at ROTH with RF, “ETo and GIS”has a
nearly 0.01 mm lower RMSE (26% decrease) and a 0.15 higher R
2
(22%
increase) than “ETo”, whereas the increased performance of “Met and
GIS”compared to “Met”is less pronounced: 0.002 mm lower RMSE
(7% decrease) and 0.02 higher R
2
(3% increase).
RF outperforms CNN in most predictor scenarios, although the per-
formance of both algorithms is comparable (Table 2). In a few scenarios,
CNN performs better (“ETo”for ROTH; “ETo”and “ETo and GIS”for
TUCC).
The RMSE and R
2
values cannot be directly compared between the
two towers, as they are dependent on the variation of ET. The range
and maximum of ET are lower at TUCC, a site with less surrounding veg-
etation, than at ROTH (Fig. 2e), leading to lower RMSE and R
2
values at
TUCC (Table 2). In the study period, the maximum ET at ROTH is nearly
double (0.29 mm/h) the maximum ET at TUCC (0.16 mm/h) (Fig. 2e).
R
2
, in particular, is highly affected by the variation in the dependent var-
iable (Kuhn and Johnson, 2013). NRMSE is normalized RMSE which fa-
cilitates a comparison of the prediction accuracy which takes into
account the different ranges of ET at the two towers. When training
and testing occurs on the same tower, NRMSE is generally lower at
the more vegetated site (ROTH) than at the less vegetated site (TUCC).
In most cases, training on the more vegetated site (ROTH) and testing
on the less vegetated site (TUCC) is associated with a higher NRMSE
than the opposite scenario due to the lower ET range at TUCC.
Models for both towers have a low pbias when training and testing
in different years (Appendix; Tables 5 and 6). However, training and
testing on different towers increases the RMSE substantially while
showing a relatively small effect on the R
2
(Table 2). This increase in
RMSE occurs due to the considerable difference in the average of ET be-
tween the two towers (0.05 vs. 0.03 mm/h at ROTH and TUCC, respec-
tively), while the similar R
2
values indicate that the relationship
between most predictors and ET is similar for both towers.
The addition of GIS data is associated with lower RMSE, NRMSE, and
MAE for RF models when training in ROTH and testing in TUCC. Other-
wise, the inclusion of GIS data is associated with a higher RMSE,
NRMSE, and MAE when training and testing on different towers.This ef-
fect can be explained by the contrasting correlations between ET and
the GIS predictors observed at the two towers (Appendix; Fig. 11). At
ROTH, ET correlates positively with indicators of higher vegetation pres-
ence (VH, Pearson's r = 0.30; vegetation fraction, Pearson's r = 0.32)
and negatively with indicators of impervious land cover (ISF, Pearson's
r=−0.45; BH, Pearson's r = −0.27), as expected. In contrast, at
TUCC, ET has a weak positive correlation with BH (Pearson's r = 0.06)
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
7
and an insignificant correlation with ISF. Unexpectedly, ET at TUCC cor-
relates negatively with both vegetation fraction (Pearson's r = −0.15)
and VH (Pearson's r = −0.15).
Training on TUCC leads to an underestimation of ET at ROTH, with a
pbias rangingfrom −44% to −55% (Table 2). As ET at TUCC is on average
lower (Figs. 3 and 6), models trained on TUCC data cannot predict the
higher ET observed at ROTH. Conversely, most models trained on
ROTH data overestimate the lower ET observed at TUCC, as indicated
by a positive pbias (52%–87%) for all predictor scenarios except “ETo
and GIS.”The decrease in pbias when including GIS data in models
trained in ROTH and tested in TUCC can be explained by the contradic-
tory relationship between ET and GIS predictors at the two towers (Ap-
pendix; Fig. 11).
Monthly and diurnal modeling accuracy are discussed in the Appen-
dix (Figs. 14–18).
4.2. Variable importance
The relative variable importance of predictors for both towers was
tested. Fig. 4 shows the percentage of relative influence of predictors
with the “Met and GIS”scenario, which includes most of the predictors
(except ETo). Despite how strongly ET is driven by meteorological con-
ditions, the influence of GIS predictors is apparent in the RF variable im-
portance. For RF models at ROTH, NDVI, ISF, and BH are the third, fifth,
and sixth most important predictors, respectively. The most important
meteorological predictors at both ROTH and TUCC with RF are wind
speed, air pressure, and solar zenith angle.
RF variable importance differs between the two towers, reflecting
thehigher influence of impervious cover at TUCC. The secondand fourth
most important predictors at TUCC with RF are ISF and BH, respectively.
Water fraction also has a minor influence in TUCC, whereas in ROTH
water fraction has essentially no influence due to the lack of water bod-
ies around the tower (Fig. 4).
CNN variable importance differs substantially from RF variable im-
portance. With CNNs, the most important meteorological predictors
are shortwave downward radiation, solar zenith angle, and diffuse
solar radiation at ROTH and solar zenith angle, wind speed, and short-
wave downward radiation at TUCC. ISF is the 7th most important pre-
dictor at ROTH, whereas the other GIS predictors are low ranked in
importance.
4.3. Total ET
Monthly and annual ET sums were computed for both towers
(Fig. 5). ET sums show a substantially higher ET at the more vegetated
site (ROTH), as expected (Fig. 5). The annual ET sum for 2019 is
~140 mm higher at ROTH than at TUCC, with an annual sum of
366 mm and 223 mm, respectively, when gap-filling with the best-
performing algorithm (RF) (Fig. 5). The highest monthly ET sums are
in the summer months; for ROTH, gap-filled ET sums with RF are
63mminJune,54mminJuly,and50mminAugust(
Fig. 5). For
TUCC, gap-filled ET sums with RF are around half the sums at ROTH:
31 mm in June, 28 mm in July, and 27 mm in August. Annual ET sums
differ by only 3–5 mm when modeling the entire year of 2019 rather
than gap-filling, confirming the dependability of the approach for ET es-
timation. Modeling the entire year without gap-filling reproduces the
diurnal and annual cycle of the original data well for both algorithms
(Fig. 6). CNN better reproduces the high summer daytime ET at ROTH,
whereas these values are underestimated by RF (Fig. 6; Appendix
Table 5). Nevertheless, differences in annual ET sums between the two
algorithms are negligible, even when solely modeling (4 mm and
10 mm difference at ROTH and TUCC, respectively) (Fig. 5). For both
towers, 14 h remained where ET could not be modeled due to missing
DWD data, which were assigned to zero.
5. Discussion
5.1. ET in an urban environment
Aligning with greening, carbon-neutrality, and sustainability plans
of many cities worldwide and in light of the impact of climate change
on the urban water cycle and urban heat, it is crucial to accurately char-
acterize urban ET.In this study, we presented a novel approach combin-
ing footprint modeling, ML and DL, and remote sensing to accurately
model urban ET at a half-hourly scale. Integrating GIS, remote sensing
and meteorological datasets and using ML and DL techniques paves
the way for new approaches in urban ET estimation and facilitates en-
hancing its accuracy and transferability. When available meteorological
data is more limited (e.g., only ETo data), the addition of remotely
sensed satellite and GIS data is especially beneficial for ET modeling in
an urban environment. Some urban areas, particularly in developing
countries, have limited access to data such as solar radiation
(Shafieiyoun et al., 2020;Shojaei et al., 2018), whereas medium-
resolution satellite imagery is freely available worldwide (Claverie
et al., 2018). Modeling with Penman-Monteith ETo still assumes exten-
sive meteorological data is available for an urban area, which is not the
case for data-scarce regions (Shafieiyoun et al., 2020). Therefore, future
work should consider even more limited data scenarios.
We tested different predictors of urban ET on two EC towers located
in different neighborhoods in Berlin. We found a combination of
Table 2
Testing performance metrics averaged across the two training and testing splits (training in 2018/2020 and testing in 2019 and vice versa). The performance metrics are root mean square
error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), percent bias (pbias), coefficient of determination (R
2
), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). The best performance metricsfor each
tower training and testing combination (e.g., training in ROTH and testing in TUCC) are shown in bold.
Tower (train) Tower (test) Predictors RMSE (mm/h) MAE (mm/h) pbias (%) R
2
(−) NRMSE (%)
CNN RF CNN RF CNN RF CNN RF CNN RF
ROTH ROTH ETo 0.0304 0.0355 0.0195 0.0226 −6.20 0.95 0.745 0.660 10.55 12.30
ETo and GIS 0.0266 0.0263 0.0177 0.0169 1.05 −0.20 0.801 0.805 9.25 9.10
Met 0.0274 0.0256 0.0178 0.0164 4.65 2.35 0.793 0.817 9.50 8.85
Met and GIS 0.0250 0.0239 0.0160 0.0154 −3.15 1.80 0.824 0.840 8.65 8.30
TUCC TUCC ETo 0.0186 0.0208 0.0121 0.0140 −4.00 0.80 0.486 0.360 11.70 13.05
ETo and GIS 0.0174 0.0175 0.0114 0.0116 −4.65 1.40 0.525 0.514 10.95 11.00
Met 0.0178 0.0173 0.0119 0.0119 −0.60 5.90 0.508 0.529 11.15 10.85
Met and GIS 0.0178 0.0170 0.0119 0.0115 0.35 4.45 0.502 0.544 11.15 10.65
ROTH TUCC ETo 0.0399 0.0475 0.0247 0.0285 70.90 83.95 0.486 0.452 25.05 29.80
ETo and GIS 0.0635 0.0226 0.0398 0.0153 −137.10 −7.45 0.067 0.369 39.90 14.20
Met 0.0473 0.0446 0.0290 0.0273 90.50 87.15 0.507 0.521 29.70 27.95
Met and GIS 0.0636 0.0318 0.0393 0.0202 −119.00 52.10 0.145 0.514 39.70 19.90
TUCC ROTH ETo 0.0509 0.0524 0.0297 0.0311 −48.60 −46.65 0.744 0.524 17.65 18.20
ETo and GIS 0.0583 0.0538 0.0349 0.0321 −61.70 −54.75 0.609 0.703 20.25 18.65
Met 0.0516 0.0491 0.0313 0.0289 −47.10 −44.00 0.665 0.775 17.95 17.05
Met and GIS 0.0582 0.0505 0.0352 0.0297 −61.15 −49.15 0.596 0.780 20.20 17.50
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
8
meteorological, remote sensing, and GIS data to be the optimal predic-
tor scenario of urban ET. For the tower surrounded by more urban
greenery, meteorological and GIS data shows an RMSE of 0.0239 mm/
handR
2
of 0.840 with RF and an RMSE of 0.0250 mm/h and a R
2
of
0.824 with 1D CNN. For the tower surrounded by a greater proportion
of impervious cover, the same scenario shows an RMSE of 0.0170 mm/
handR
2
of 0.544 with RF and an RMSE of 0.0178 mm/h and R
2
of
0.502 with 1D CNN.
Our approach compares favorably with other modeling approaches
for estimating hourly urban LE; we converted LE (W/m
2
) from other
studies to ET (mm/h) for comparison. For instance, the Surface Urban
Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) was used to model LE on
an hourly scale in Los Angeles, USA and Vancouver, Canada; an RMSE
of 0.0295–0.0826 mm/h and R
2
0.47–0.79 were reported (Järvi et al.,
2011). SUEWS was applied to estimate urban LE at an hourly scale at
two EC sites in the UK, a dense urban site in London and a suburban
site in Swindon; an RMSE of 0.0364 mm/h and R
2
of 0.245 and an
RMSE of 0.0333 and R
2
of 0.721 were reported, respectively (Ward
et al., 2016). Three urban land-surface models (LSMs) were applied to
model EC fluxes in a dense city center site and a suburban site in Hel-
sinki, Finland (Karsisto et al., 2016). The LSMs showed an RMSE of
0.0168 mm/h (winter) to 0.0889 mm/h (summer) at the suburban
site and an RMSE of 0.0226 mm/h (winter) to 0.0733 mm/h (summer)
at the urban site (Karsisto et al., 2016). A micrometeorological approach
(ARM) was applied to model LE in three temperate cities, finding a poor
to moderate agreement with EC measurements; an RMSE of
0.0268–0.0450 mm/h and R
2
of 0.37–0.42, an RMSE of 0.0280 mm/h
and R
2
of 0.09, and an RMSE of 0.0311 mm/h and R
2
of 0.07 were re-
ported for Basel, Switzerland, London, UK, and Heraklion, Greece, re-
spectively (Chrysoulakis et al., 2018).
Fig. 4. Relative variable importance revealed by models. The “Met and GIS”(meteorologicaland GIS predictors) predictor scenario is depicted. The variable importance wasaveragedacross
the two training and testing splits (training in 2018/2020 and testing in 2019 and vice versa).
Fig. 5. Monthly evapotranspiration (ET) sums for the year 2019 calculated by (a) gap-filling using random forest (RF) and 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and (b) by only
modeling using RF and 1D CNN without using the original ET data for 2019. The first annual ET sum values listed represent the RF-based annual sums, while the CNN-based annual
sums are in parentheses. All models used to obtain ET sums were trained in 2018 and 2020 and on the same tower for which data were predicted. In all cases, the “Met and GIS”
(meteorological and GIS) predictor scenario was applied first. Any remaining gaps were filled using models trained with the “Met”(meteorological) predictor scenario (see main text
for further details).
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
9
5.2. Modeling ET
Comparing ML and DL algorithms used in our study, RF showed a
slightly higher accuracy than CNN, although the performance of the al-
gorithms was comparable. RF also outperformed ANNs and SVM in a
study gap-filling methane fluxes (Kim et al., 2020). Kim et al. (2020) at-
tributed the superior performance of RF for methane gap-filling to its
capacity to incorporate a variety of model inputs, including noise,
while avoiding overfitting. 1D CNNs are nevertheless promising for hy-
drological modelingdue totheir high computational speed and capacity
to extract temporal patterns (Ferreira and da Cunha, 2020;Haidar and
Verma, 2018). As data-driven empirical models, the ML and DL algo-
rithms needed to be trained at each location to perform optimally,
shown by the increase in RMSE when training and testing on different
towers. However, the similar R
2
values whether training and testing
on the same or different towers show that the relationship between
the predictors and ET are similar for both towers. The inclusion of re-
mote sensing and GIS data opens up the possibility to fit general models
incorporating the influence of surface cover.
5.3. ET drivers in an urban environment
Deeper investigation of predictors by variable importance analysis
highlighted the contribution of remote sensing and GIS data to models,
even though ET is primarily driven by meteorological variables. The
most important GIS predictors based on RF were NDVI, ISF, and BH at
ROTH and ISF, BH, and vegetation fraction at TUCC. Land cover may play
a role in which predictors are most relevant. For instance, NDVI may be
more relevant for modeling in a more vegetated urban area
(e.g., ROTH), as NDVI has been shown to be very beneficial to modeling
ET of urban vegetation (Boegh et al., 2009;Nouri et al., 2015). CNN models
assigned lower importance to GIS predictors, with ISF as the most impor-
tant GIS predictor at ROTH and BH as the most important GIS predictor at
TUCC. Wind speed, air pressure, and solar zenith angle are highly relevant
in ET estimation according to RF models. CNN models also emphasized a
similar set of meteorological variables: shortwave downward radiation,
solar zenith angle, diffuse solar radiation, and wind speed.
The ET sums showed a substantial difference between the less vege-
tated site and the more vegetated site, demonstrating how green
Fig. 6. Annual and diurnal course of (a) observed evapotranspiration (ET) at ROTH, (b) observed ET at TUCC, (c) modeled ET at ROTH with 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN),
(d) modeled ET at TUCC with 1D CNN, (e) modeled ET at ROTH with random forest (RF), and (f) modeled ET at TUCC with RF. ET depicted in (c)–(f) is exclusively modeled with ML
algorithms (not gap-filled). All models used to model ET were trained in 2018 and 2020 and on the same tower for which data were predicted. White areas represent missing data
(for (a) and (b)) and modeled negative values (for (c)–(f)).
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
10
infrastructure can substantially alter the urban water cycle. In summer-
time, monthly ET sums of a more highly vegetated site (ROTH) were
double the ET sums of the less vegetated site (TUCC). ET at ROTH consti-
tuted a larger share of available precipitation (P) annually (72% of
506 mm P measured at Berlin-Dahlem) than at TUCC (56% of 400 mm
P measured at Berlin-Tegel or 38% of 584 mm P measured at the TUCC
flux tower), which can be attributed to the greater vegetation cover at
ROTH. P was not calculated from the ROTH flux tower due to large
data gaps in the dataset. A study in a suburban area (Swindon) in the
UK estimated annual ET to be 370 mm using EC data (Ward et al.,
2013), closely matching the annual ET sum at the more vegetated site
(ROTH) in our study (366 mm). The study area in Swindon, UK was sim-
ilar to our study site at ROTH, as their flux tower was also installed in a
residential garden with significant surrounding vegetation cover (44%
within a 500-m radius) (Ward et al., 2013). However, the ratio of ET
to P annually at Swindon (57%) was lower than the ratio at ROTH
(Ward et al., 2013). A study simulating annual ET in Copenhagen,
Denmark with an ecohydrological model estimated an annual ET of
210 mm, corresponding to 27% of P (Boegh et al., 2009); this ET sum
is comparable to the value at the less vegetated site (223 mm), although
the percentage of P is lower in Copenhagen than in both sites in this
study. The site in Copenhagen was surrounded by 28% vegetation
cover in the averaged daily flux footprint (Boegh et al., 2009), which is
even lower than the fraction of vegetation cover at TUCC (33%). A source
of uncertainty for ET sums are precipitation events, during which the EC
system cannot accurately record fluxes. On average, modeled ET was
lower during precipitation events, likely reflecting the reduced short-
wave radiation during rain events (Appendix;Fig. 12 and Table 7). In re-
ality, a rapid evaporation may occur directly following rainfall from
rainwater that is intercepted by impervious surfaces or vegetation
(Ward et al., 2013). Methods relying on open-path gas analyzers there-
fore underestimate ET sums (Ward et al., 2013).
5.4. Future applications
The future of sustainable cities, elaborated in the sponge city or
WSUD concept, hinges upon ecosystem services provided by green in-
frastructure (He et al., 2019;Liu and Jensen, 2018). ET is a key indicator
of the ecosystem services provided by urban green spaces due to its role
in the water balance and its cooling capacity; as such, urban initiatives
are already explicitly aiming to enhance ET by integrating more vegeta-
tion, green facades, and green roofs into the urban landscape (Liu and
Jensen, 2018). Expanding green infrastructure in cities, however, brings
trade-offs in urban sustainability, as more water resources are used for
landscape irrigation (Litvak et al., 2017;Nouri et al., 2019;Pataki et al.,
2011). While urban water scarcity has mainly been the concern of
(semi-)arid regions so far (Litvak et al., 2017;Pataki et al., 2011;Saher
et al., 2021), extreme drought and heat waves in recent years in western
and northern Europe have demonstrated that these challenges are also
increasingly relevant for temperate cities suffering from summer heat
waves such as Paris or Berlin (Dousset et al., 2011;Fenner et al., 2019;
Gabriel and Endlicher, 2011).
The growing interest in managing and quantifying the impacts of cli-
mate change on cities therefore demands accurate ET modeling ap-
proaches (Boegh et al., 2009;Cong et al., 2017;Saher et al., 2021). The
proposed methodology can be applied to simulate the effects of climate
change and land use scenarios on urban ET, with implications for the
urban energy and water balance. Furthermore, the presented approach
can be used to upscale urban ET spatially at the city scale at a high res-
olution in the presence of EC and GIS data as the most important model
inputs are freely available. Spatial upscaling can facilitate the explora-
tion of how adding green infrastructure such as green roofs in cities
can augment evaporative cooling and where to install them for the
greatest benefit to urban residents (Besir and Cuce, 2018). Furthermore,
large-scale urban land use change, such as the conversion of the former
Berlin Tempelhof Airport to a built-up area, can be simulated to
anticipate its effect on ET and its related ecosystem services. In future
applications, urban ET maps can be made publicly available to support
initiatives aiming for sustainable irrigation management of urban
green spaces and heat risk mitigation for urban residents. The presented
approach can also be applied to accurately gap-fill urban EC flux data
and produce long-term ET time series, which can be used to better un-
derstand ET seasonality and trends (Foltýnová et al., 2020).
Generating spatial predictions of ET simply requires predicting with
trained models on a GIS database of all predictors, as has previously
been applied for urban air temperature (Vulova et al., 2020). However,
some challenges need to be resolved before upscaling. Extracted GIS
data by footprint modeling is averaged over different spatial scales
(Kotthaus and Grimmond, 2014). Upscaling spatially would thus re-
quire spatial aggregation of GIS data corresponding to an average
footprint.
The ET dynamics of the less vegetated site (TUCC) need to be further
investigated, particularly in relation to the influence of land cover. A
study modeling LE from EC data at an hourly resolution with SUEWS
also showed lower accuracy (higher RMSE and lower R
2
) in modeling
LE in a dense urban site compared to a suburban site surrounded by
more vegetation (Ward et al., 2016). The lower range of ET values and
therefore lower R
2
is expected in a site with less vegetation (Ward
et al., 2016). Furthermore, at the more vegetated site (ROTH), footprint
modeling revealed the expected positive correlation of vegetation cover
and ET (Appendix; Fig. 11). At the less vegetated site, however, the cor-
relations were counter-intuitive, showing a negative relationship be-
tween ET and indicators of vegetation presence (vegetation fraction
and vegetation height) (Appendix; Fig. 11). As the TUCC tower is an
inner-city tower situated on a building roof, it may be more affected
by water vapor released through anthropogenic activities, which can
confound the contribution of surrounding vegetation to ET (Karsisto
et al., 2016;Kotthaus and Grimmond, 2012;Nordbo et al., 2012;Ward
et al., 2013). In addition, observed ET from EC towers is not reliable dur-
ing rain. In this study, four hours of data after precipitation were re-
moved; however, the effect of increased ET by wet surfaces after
rainfall may persist for more than 12 h (Kotthaus and Grimmond,
2014). Advection effects, which are more common in a patchy urban
landscape, may also affect EC fluxes (Kotthaus and Grimmond, 2014;
Vesala et al., 2008). Kotthaus and Grimmond (2014) also found that tur-
bulent fluxes in the center of London, UK could not be explained by sur-
face cover types and suggested that other effects besides impervious
surface cover fractions need to be considered to interpret urban fluxes.
The presented approach can be integrated with any remote sensing
and GIS layers that may be relevant to modeling an EC flux, such as
urban morphology and Leaf Area Index (LAI). The integration of foot-
print models with ML and DL is also relevant for other urban fluxes,
such as CO
2
(Crawford and Christen, 2015;Järvi et al., 2012;Kotthaus
and Grimmond, 2014;Menzer et al., 2015). Future studies can apply
this approach to other cities and fluxes.
6. Conclusions
Urban ET is a key aspect of urban greening efforts worldwide and
therefore requires innovative methods to be accurately quantified. We
presented a novel approach fusing flux footprint modeling, remote
sensing and GIS data, and ML and DL to model urban ET at a half-
hourly scale. Flux footprints allow forland cover characteristics to be in-
corporated into ML and DL algorithms, which is essential to estimating
ET in heterogeneous urban terrain. We compared two DL and ML algo-
rithms (1D convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and random forest
(RF)). Although RF showed a slightly higher accuracy, the performance
of CNNs was also promising and warrants further exploration with
other model architectures.
Four predictor scenarios were tested to assess the contribution of re-
mote sensing and GIS data to model performance. We found incorporat-
ing remote sensing, GIS, and meteorological predictors to be the best-
S. Vulova, F. Meier, A.D. Rocha et al. Science of the Total Environment 786 (2021) 147293
11
performing scenario to estimate urban ET. This predictor scenario with
RF showed an RMSE of 0.024 mm/h and R
2
of 0.84 and an RMSE of
0.017 mm/h and R
2
of 0.54 for the more vegetated and less vegetated
site, respectively. NDVI and impervious surface fraction emerged as
the most important GIS predictors, while solar zenith angle, shortwave
downward radiation, wind speed, and air pressure were the most im-
portant meteorological predictors.
Future applications of this methodology include gap-filling ET in
order to analyze long-term trends, simulating the influence of altering
urban land cover on ET, and spatially upscaling ET to the city scale
with a high spatial resolution. The presented method can support sus-
tainable urban planning efforts in the face of climate change, including
initiatives to manage blue and green water resources and to mitigate
the urban heat island effect.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Stenka Vulova: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Formal
analysis, Investigation, Writing –original draft, Visualization. Fred
Meier: Resources, Data curation, Writing –review & editing, Funding
acquisition. Alby Duarte Rocha: Software, Writing –review & editing.
Justus Quanz: Software, Writing –review & editing. Hamideh Nouri:
Writing –review & editing. Birgit Kleinschmit: Resources, Writing –re-
view & editing, Supervision, Project administration, Fundingacquisition.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influ-
ence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the German Research Foundation
(DFG) within the Research Training Group ‘Urban Water Interfaces’
(GRK 2032-2). Fred Meier acknowledges funding for instrumentation
of the Urban Climate Observatory (UCO) Berlin from DFG grant SCHE
750/8 and SCHE 750/9 within Research Unit 1736 “Urban Climate and
Heat Stress in Mid Latitude Cities in View of Climate Change (UCaHS)”
and the research program “Urban Climate Under Change ([UC]2)”,
funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
(BMBF) (FKZ 01LP1602A). The authors would like to thank the DWD,
the Chair of Climatology at the Technische Universität Berlin, NASA,
the European Commission, and the Berlin Senate Department for Urban
Development and Housing for providing data used in this paper. They
are also grateful to the three anonymous reviewers for their valuable
comments that improved the quality of the manuscript.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147293.
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